SB Nation - Jesse Smith

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.

Jesse Smith and Mike Brandtner Week 8 Big 12 POWs

Mark Kieffer — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:35:04 -0000

Jesse Smith made Defensive Player of the Week, and Mike Brandtner made Special Teams Player Of The Week. If it wasn't for Jesse leading the troops defensivley, and Brandtner's run along with great punting, ISU wouldn't have been able to win the game.

Jesse Smith also got the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week award for his efforts in Week 8.

It's nice to see two important players from this program finally get some recognition for their efforts during their Senior Years.

Week 8: We Shocked The World!!!

Mark Kieffer — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:55:07 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

about 1 month ago: Iowa State players, including Nate Frere, bottom center, celebrate with their fansafter beating Nebraska 9-7 in an NCAA college football game at Memorial Stadium, in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009.(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Browse more photos »

This ISU team has some guts. Starting their backup QB and RB on the road, in an environment that they haven't been successful at since 1977, and does what it needs to get the victory!

What was that?

0 giveaways, 8 takeaways, the picture above is the story of the game. The game wasn't pretty offensively, but ISU did what they had to do. It would've been easy for this team to mail it in, but they came ready to play, and if you play hard you can win. It's a team sport, and ISU showed that if you have guts and play as a team, you win games. That's football.

Props go to the entire defensive unit, but Jesse Smith, the heart and soul of the team gets the game ball for this one! Tiller deserves some major props as well: no turnovers, managing the game, and picking up first downs when needed. That 4th quarter drive when they ate clock made it happen!

Now with 5 wins on the year, ISU looks to have one foot in a bowl game. Can they compete for the North? Who knows, but it's going to be a fun homestretch!

Enjoy this one Cyclone fans! They did it!

KICKING THE TIRES: Iowa State University

BracketCat — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:00:21 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) VS. Iowa State Cyclones (3-1)

"Farmageddon"
Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Mo.
Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009 - 2:00 PM CST

FCS Central | Cox Cable 22

Sorry for being 12 hours late, but I've simply been off-track all week. I took a vacation Monday to have a three-day weekend up in Manhattan and KC, and I've been playing catchup so much at work since then that I just haven't had time to work ahead on this like I usually do.

At any rate, thanks to Panjandrum, the Ag-pocalypse needs no more buildup or hype, but if it's statistics you're seeking, click the jump.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (55 of 95, 684 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (19 catches, 223 yards)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (91 carries, 433 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Courtney Herndon (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 PBU)

ISU

Passing
Austen Arnaud (50 of 91, 625 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Marquis Hamilton (15 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD)

Rushing
Alexander Robinson (79 carries, 453 yards, 3 TD)

Wild Card
Jesse Smith (37 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
ISU (21) > K-State (32 | +17)

Passing Offense
K-State (91 | -4) > ISU (94)

Total Offense
ISU (51) > K-State (55 | +20)

Scoring Offense
ISU (74) > K-State (87 | +20)

Rushing Defense
K-State (17 | +45) > ISU (85)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (20 | -6) > ISU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (10 | +19) > ISU (70)

Scoring Defense
K-State (26 | +17) > ISU (36)

Net Punting
ISU (5) > K-State (106 | -6)

Punt Returns
K-State (36 | +9) > ISU (86)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +43) > ISU (66)

Turnover Margin
K-State (56 | +7) > ISU (81)

Pass Defense
K-State (13 | +9) > ISU (50)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (87 | +11) > ISU (97)

Analysis

After comparing our relative statistics, I feel a lot better about this match-up. Iowa State has a marginally better offense than us, but not nearly better enough to offset our commanding advantage on defense and in the return game. Austen Arnaud basically is Carson Coffman with a few more touchdown passes, while Alexander Robinson is like a watered-down version of Daniel Thomas. Helping our cause is the loss of the Cyclones' second-leading receiver, Darius Reynolds, to a knee injury; although you never like to see a guy get hurt, I'll take anything we can get in our quest for what probably will be a rare Big 12 victory.

In addition to leading tackler Jesse Smith, keep an eye out for David Sims, who is tied with Tysyn Hartman for the league lead with three interceptions. Hopefully, Coffman keeps an eye out for him, as well. Iowa State's major edge defensively is that they have quite a few more tackles for loss than we do, indicating they actually have a legitimate defensive line. With any luck, this is our last week without Brandon Harold, so we'll just have to muddle through as best we can.

On a side note, what the hell is going on with our net punting? Not only has Ryan Doerr been a MAJOR disappointment as a place holder, but his leg hasn't been that impressive, either. Thank God he's only a redshirt freshman and has some time to improve, but it'd be nice if that improvement began this season. The only reason he's not the most appalling player on special teams is because of the chokejob artist formerly known as Josh Cherry.

And on that note, I'm going to go ahead and predict a loss in an attempt to reverse-jinx us into a win. Let's say we line up for the game-winning field goal, which Cherry shanks wide right for a crushing defeat. One-point loss? Point plankn.

Prediction: Iowa State 31, Kansas State 30
(One of the ISU touchdowns is a pick-six from Coffman to Sims.)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Antonio Felder, Raphael Guidry
LB: John Houlik, Alex Hrebec
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

I'm not sure why I'm so pessimistic on the Big 12 in the major intersectional match-ups... just don't have a good feeling about either one. A&M hasn't proven crap yet and the last time we saw Landry Jones against an opponent with a pulse, he stunk it up. And just like everyone jumped on Miami's bandwagon way too fast, they jumped OFF of it way too fast, too.

New Mexico at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 46, Lobos 19

Kent State at Baylor
Bears 42, Golden Flashes 25

Arkansas at Texas A&M (Arlington) (ESPN2)
Razorbacks 29, Aggies 27

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami (ABC)
Hurricanes 15, Sooners 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Week 4: ISU 31, Army 10

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 04:52:16 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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Final - 9.26.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Army Black Knights	3	7	0	0	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	3	14	7	7	31

Complete Coverage >

A nice home win for ISU heading into the conference season. I honestly thought this game would be closer, and I am very happy to have been wrong! A crowd of slightly over 50,000 came out to watch ISU pick up a big win, which is great!

ISU was in control of this game, and once we got into the 2nd quarter, there was little doubt in my mind about the outcome of the game.

Below are some quick thoughts I had regarding the game:

I think our running game is for real. Army had been allowing only 77 yards on the ground, yet we rushed for 201 yards. No we aren't playing the cream of the crop, but last year ISU had trouble moving the ball against the likes of Kent State. This early success is a good sign. Alexander Robinson is a smart back that can read the holes and knows where to go. I've talked amongst friends how if ISU's line can be average this can be a good team and with more consistenty from the passing game, ISU could get there. If we can move the ball effectively, that makes me a pretty excited fan, as we can control the clock, and wear the defense down.
Army really cannot pass. If you've got a 6'10 guy in Villanueva, just have him run curls. The QB overthrew him over and over, and lead him out of bounds. I just cannot get over how you cannot make some decent throws to a target so big.
ISU's front seven played very well. Army averaged less than 4 yards/carry and thier longest run was 18 yards. Guys stuck to their men, and didn't go around chasing the ball. The tackling was very good as well. The defense did a good job keeping everything in front of them.
Army's TD at the end of the half, was a head scratcher. On first and second down Army had thrown fades to Villanueva in the end zone which were broken up by Banks. On third down, Army ran the same play, and Villanueva caught it. If you give a guy enough chances, they'll eventually figure it out. I guess I don't understand why we didn't stick two guys on Villanueva. Army had made it 17-10 with some momentum heading into the locker room. Now ISU responded well in the 3rd quarter, and that is a sign of good coaching, but had that been a better team, it could've been a
Do not go to an Army-ISU game rocking some team gear of Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Navy, etc. I guess I just don't see what's so hard about dropping $8-$10 and wearing an ISU t-shirt. If someone can explain this to me, it'd be much appreciated! This happens for all the games, but I noticed a lot of it coming into Jack Trice tonight.
No matter how much they widen the concourses at Jack Trice, people will still find ways to make it a clusterfuck. Now that the concourses are twice as wide, you'd figure there'd be a good amount of room to get around. Wrong. People find ways to spread out, chill in random spots, etc. It really isn't that big of a problem at all, it's just interesting to see how the crowds operate.

Props to:

Alexander Robinson: 21 carries for 127 yards (including a 68 yard TD), and 3 catches for 51 yards (including a 32 yard TD), 3 TDs total. A-Rob showed his versatility in this game, and his consistency is really keeping our offense going while the passing game is struggling.
Mike Bradtner: 5 punts for 239 yards, including a 69 yard punt. 4 of the 5 punts landed within the 20.
Jesse Smith: 13 tackles (11 solo). The guy was flying around the field and stopping runs, which is what he does best
Christopher Lyle: 7 tackles (3 solo, 2 for loss), 1 sack. Easily our most productive guy on the D-Line right now.
Kennard Banks: 4 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass deflections. The guy hits hard. Part of me wonders if being a safety would suit his skills more? Nothing against our guys there at all, but it seems like Banks is less of a cover guy, and more of a tackling and hitting guy.
Leonard Johnson: 5 tackles, 1 int, 2 pass deflections. The pick was in the end zone as Army's QB overthrew Villanueva, and it was a nice diving catch from LJ. One of those deflections was a dropped interception that would've gone for 6 easily had he hung on, as he came in on the flat and there would've been no one in front of him. He did a good job covering guys, forcing their QB to throw somewhere else. Had a very nice game, and could've been a monster game.
ISU Offensive Line: ISU had 200 yards rushing against one of the best rush defenses in the nation. Also protected Arnaud well.
The entire Army team. Going to Westpoint is very demanding, as a non-athlete. I could not imagine the dedication these young men have to take demanding courses, prepare to be leaders in the military, and commit to football. I'd have to imagine these guys are up from 6am to Midnight every single day.
ISU Fans. The fans were very classy in cheering for Army, and it was a good atmosphere at the Jack.

Notes:

Rashawn Parker had to leave the game in the 1st quarter after injuring his left knee. He had to be helped off the field, and did not return to the game. Paul Rhoads did not comment on it further after tonights game, so we will have to wait and see what is said early in the week.
Alexander Robinson either strained or pulled his groin after catching his 32 yard TD pass. After getting into the end zone and fell to the ground on the sidelines and the trainers looked at him. He did get up and was able to walk on his own, although he was hobbling around. Coach Rhoads did not comment further on the injury either.

After a nice win, ISU needs to look ahead to K-State because that's a huge spot playing at Arrowhead next week. At 3-1, I'm going to enjoy the winning record while we have it!

What were your thoughts on the game?

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

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The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an Iowa State offense that has shown glimpses of potential...but nearly enough of them to keep up in the Big 12 arms race. Now to the defense, which has shown...well...much less potential.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 89.6 (#93)
Success Rate+: 92.1 (#90)
PPP+: 86.8 (#96)

Standard Downs S&P+: 91.0 (#94)
Passing Downs S&P+: 82.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 85.8 (#105)

Q1 S&P+: 102.2 (#56)
Q2 S&P+: 80.1 (#112)
Q3 S&P+: 93.9 (#80)
Q4 S&P+: 81.3 (#118)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#79)
2nd Down S&P+: 84.1 (#104)
3rd Down S&P+: 81.5 (#109)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 96.6 (#76)
Rushing SR+: 99.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 92.6 (#81)

Standard Downs: 97.1 (#75)
Passing Downs: 85.3 (#92)

Redzone: 80.8 (#112)

Line Yards+: 99.9 (#55)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 81.8 (#109)
Passing SR+: 84.0 (#115)
Passing PPP+: 79.7 (#102)

Standard Downs: 83.2 (#113)
Passing Downs: 80.6 (#104)

Redzone: 88.7 (#86)

Adj. Sack Rate: 85.1 (#79)

Where Iowa State was good (or at least decent):

Line Yards+ (i.e. defensive line run support)
Q1 Defense

End of list. Despite being a smidge undersized, the defensive line did stand up well to run blocking, and they were on par with Kansas in terms of pass rushing, so we'll call the D-line a relative strength. And from their first-quarter success, we'll derive that they, in general, had decent enough game plans but not the talent/in-game adjustments to survive over 60 minutes.

Beyond that? Pretty much all bad. I make general assumptions sometimes with the data, assumptions like "Teams coached by prodigies who were previously strong defensive coordinators will tend to be pretty good on Passing Downs." No dice here. The 'Clones were bad on Standard Downs and REALLY bad on Passing Downs. And despite the presence of a seemingly very good freshman cornerback, it does appear that their secondary was about as bad as bad gets.

Defensive Line

Nate Frere...way better than his brother, Nick.

2008 Unit Ranking: #76 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Nate Frere (6'1, 283, Sr.)
DE Christopher Lyle (6'4, 252, Sr.)
DE Rashawn Parker (6'0, 260, Sr.)
DT Austin Alburtis (6'2, 267, Jr.)
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer (6'3, 290, So.)
DT Bailey Johnson (6'3, 272, Jr.)
DE Roosevelt Maggitt (6'2, 237, RSFr.)
DE Cleyon Laing (6'3, 268, RSFr.)

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

At end, Rashawn Parker (2.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QBH) has shown potential over the years, but he was pretty terrible in 2008. Though he's a "returning starter" he was far outplayed by Christopher Lyle (13.0 sacks/TFL, 2 QBH, 2 forced fumbles). Unfortunately, both are seniors, so it's likely that they've done whatever developing they're going to do. Best-case scenario here is that one of the RSFr ends breaks into the rotation pretty well and gives them a little continuity for 2010, as they're losing their top three (projected) linemen to graduation (or at least exhausted eligibility) after this year.

Linebackers

What a great picture this is. I bet Jesse Smith's mom has a few copies of this one.

2008 Unit Ranking: #94 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jesse Smith (6'0, 231, Sr.)
Fred Garrin (6'2, 230, Sr.)
Justin Rumple (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Josh Raven (5'11, 230, Sr.)
Matt Taufoou (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Derec Schmidgall (6'2, 230, Sr.)

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it. If there's a silver lining in this unit, it's Matt Taufoou, a late commitment to Rhoads who, if I read correctly, was initially committed to Tennessee. He comes to Ames with a decent JUCO resume, and lord knows there's a starting spot waiting for him if he can quickly prove himself.

Secondary

Leonard Johnson was a straight-up stud as a freshman.

2008 Unit Ranking: #109 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.)
S James Smith (5'9, 191, Sr.)
S Zac Sandvig (5'10, 190, Jr.)
CB Ter'ran Benton (6'1, 196, So.)
S David Sims (5'10, 212, Jr.)
CB Kennard Banks (5'10, 189, Sr.)
CB Devin McDowell (5'9, 177, Jr.)
S Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.)

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

Again, there's a sliver of hope here in the form of a player who initially committed to a good team. You've got Bo Williams (originally of Florida) at running back, Taufoou at linebacker, and now David Sims, who originally signed with OU out of JUCO in 2008 (and then...well, I'm not really sure what happened, but now he's in Ames), stepping in at safety. As with Taufoou, there is a starting spot available if he can come in and prove himself.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 Net Punting, #52 Punt Returns, #12 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Grant Mahoney (6'1, 154, So.) - 33-for-33 PAT, 17-for-25 FG (Long: 48)
P Mike Brandtner (6'1, 211, Sr.) - 51 Punts, 35.6 Net
KR Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.) - 41 Returns, 26.4 Avg
PR Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.) - 9 returns, 8.6 Avg

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Summary

When you're relying on JUCO transfers to significantly boost your athleticism, you're probably in trouble. But between Frere, Je. Smith, and Johnson, there is at least one solid player in each unit, which is something. I don't want to come down too hard on Iowa State here--they're playing in a relatively weak division and can certainly knock off a division rival or two--but it really does seem like it will take Paul Rhoads a couple of years to build the talent level up to something worthwhile. Like Bill Snyder, he'll be able to pretty quickly work some of his own recruits into the rotation with the number of mediocre seniors this defense has, but that also means that in his second year he will have an extremely young D...which usually isn't a good thing.

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Projections on Friday.