SB Nation - Christopher Lyle

Iowa State Week 5 Wrap-Up Part 2

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 06:19:59 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

While most of the game sucked, this catch that Jake Williams is about to make was pretty special play, combined with the fact that we lucked out that Tysyn Hartman misplayed the interception.

If you were not able to catch the game, the way I'd characterize it, is not being athletic enough. I see the correct play being called most of the time, but we just aren't executing.

For example on Defense, it's lack of athleticism. ISU would get into the backfield, but just miss the QB sack by a step, or over pursue. Often times this was on a blitz, and it would free up a WR, and that is exactly how Gregory was able to connect with Banks for the go-ahead TD.

On Offense, it comes down to simple execution: running the correct routes, making the correct read, delivering the ball in stride. We should have all of the tools there, but guys that we had hoped would improve off of last year (Arnaud, Darks, Sedrick Johnson), just have not yet. We are running the ball well, as we rushed for 200+ yards as a team, but we need to pass the ball effectively to pick up more wins this year.

I'm not going to beat around the bush or pretend like this game did not matter. This was huge. If ISU could have won this game, I seriously think that 6 games would not have been out of the question. I just hope that I let down like this, does not rattle the team's confidence.

The guys on this team have not won a Big 12 game. Starting the conference season out with a win, would've helped build confidence down the road. Hopefully the team can come with some positive takeaways that they can build on in the future.

A positive takeaway for me was Arnuad being able to lead the troops down the field, in a must-score situation. A lot of Cyclone fans have been questioning Arnuad, and despite his struggles, it's clear he's the Cyclones' leader. I think we would be worse off, if he was not out there.

Below are some general takeaways I had from the game. I was hoping to provide a good breakdown of stats, but as you will see if you check the box score and below, it was pretty ho-hum:

Total yardage was pretty equal. ISU had 371 yards on offense, while K-State picked up 360 yards.
Despite A-Rob playing very little, ISU picked up yards on the ground. ISU picked up 207 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards/carry.
Overall, the teams were very equal. Both had similar yardage, both turned the ball over the same number of times (2), and almost scored the same number of times.The teams even averaged the same number of yards/play at 5.5. It was fitting the game was decided on special teams. Just stunk we were on the bad end of it.
The stat the leaps off the page for me is third down conversions. Kansas State went 8 of 15 on third downs. For a team with a 22% conversion rate coming into the game, that's a pretty significant improvement. ISU was only 6 of 15. If ISU could have made a few more stops on defense, and picked up more first downs on offense, it may have been a different game.
I wish A-Rob would've been healthy. I have no idea how the game may have turned out had he played, but he had been carrying our offense, and he would've been a good receiving target as ISU for those key situations. At the same time, injuries are part of the game.

Props To:

K-State's Field Goal Block unit. When your head coach is shocked with what you did, I think it speaks volumes as to how much that unit stepped up on the PAT.
Jake Williams (5 catches, 61 yards, 1 TD). Going from walk-on to go-to guy. Great story and great catch in the end zone to put ISU in a position to tie the game.
Grant Gregory. Not a great QB by any stretch, but avoiding a Christopher Lyle sack, to connect to Banks on a 54 yard TD was a huge play that put K-State up for good. All the good QBs make plays like this, but for a guy who hasn't been great to do it, is really big.
Mike Brandtner (5 punts, 216 yards, 2 inside the 20). Made some nice punts, to not give K-State good field position.

Tough loss, and hopefully ISU can learn from this and improve as we head into the thick of Big 12 play.

Week 4: ISU 31, Army 10

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 04:52:16 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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Final - 9.26.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Army Black Knights	3	7	0	0	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	3	14	7	7	31

Complete Coverage >

A nice home win for ISU heading into the conference season. I honestly thought this game would be closer, and I am very happy to have been wrong! A crowd of slightly over 50,000 came out to watch ISU pick up a big win, which is great!

ISU was in control of this game, and once we got into the 2nd quarter, there was little doubt in my mind about the outcome of the game.

Below are some quick thoughts I had regarding the game:

I think our running game is for real. Army had been allowing only 77 yards on the ground, yet we rushed for 201 yards. No we aren't playing the cream of the crop, but last year ISU had trouble moving the ball against the likes of Kent State. This early success is a good sign. Alexander Robinson is a smart back that can read the holes and knows where to go. I've talked amongst friends how if ISU's line can be average this can be a good team and with more consistenty from the passing game, ISU could get there. If we can move the ball effectively, that makes me a pretty excited fan, as we can control the clock, and wear the defense down.
Army really cannot pass. If you've got a 6'10 guy in Villanueva, just have him run curls. The QB overthrew him over and over, and lead him out of bounds. I just cannot get over how you cannot make some decent throws to a target so big.
ISU's front seven played very well. Army averaged less than 4 yards/carry and thier longest run was 18 yards. Guys stuck to their men, and didn't go around chasing the ball. The tackling was very good as well. The defense did a good job keeping everything in front of them.
Army's TD at the end of the half, was a head scratcher. On first and second down Army had thrown fades to Villanueva in the end zone which were broken up by Banks. On third down, Army ran the same play, and Villanueva caught it. If you give a guy enough chances, they'll eventually figure it out. I guess I don't understand why we didn't stick two guys on Villanueva. Army had made it 17-10 with some momentum heading into the locker room. Now ISU responded well in the 3rd quarter, and that is a sign of good coaching, but had that been a better team, it could've been a
Do not go to an Army-ISU game rocking some team gear of Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Navy, etc. I guess I just don't see what's so hard about dropping $8-$10 and wearing an ISU t-shirt. If someone can explain this to me, it'd be much appreciated! This happens for all the games, but I noticed a lot of it coming into Jack Trice tonight.
No matter how much they widen the concourses at Jack Trice, people will still find ways to make it a clusterfuck. Now that the concourses are twice as wide, you'd figure there'd be a good amount of room to get around. Wrong. People find ways to spread out, chill in random spots, etc. It really isn't that big of a problem at all, it's just interesting to see how the crowds operate.

Props to:

Alexander Robinson: 21 carries for 127 yards (including a 68 yard TD), and 3 catches for 51 yards (including a 32 yard TD), 3 TDs total. A-Rob showed his versatility in this game, and his consistency is really keeping our offense going while the passing game is struggling.
Mike Bradtner: 5 punts for 239 yards, including a 69 yard punt. 4 of the 5 punts landed within the 20.
Jesse Smith: 13 tackles (11 solo). The guy was flying around the field and stopping runs, which is what he does best
Christopher Lyle: 7 tackles (3 solo, 2 for loss), 1 sack. Easily our most productive guy on the D-Line right now.
Kennard Banks: 4 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass deflections. The guy hits hard. Part of me wonders if being a safety would suit his skills more? Nothing against our guys there at all, but it seems like Banks is less of a cover guy, and more of a tackling and hitting guy.
Leonard Johnson: 5 tackles, 1 int, 2 pass deflections. The pick was in the end zone as Army's QB overthrew Villanueva, and it was a nice diving catch from LJ. One of those deflections was a dropped interception that would've gone for 6 easily had he hung on, as he came in on the flat and there would've been no one in front of him. He did a good job covering guys, forcing their QB to throw somewhere else. Had a very nice game, and could've been a monster game.
ISU Offensive Line: ISU had 200 yards rushing against one of the best rush defenses in the nation. Also protected Arnaud well.
The entire Army team. Going to Westpoint is very demanding, as a non-athlete. I could not imagine the dedication these young men have to take demanding courses, prepare to be leaders in the military, and commit to football. I'd have to imagine these guys are up from 6am to Midnight every single day.
ISU Fans. The fans were very classy in cheering for Army, and it was a good atmosphere at the Jack.

Notes:

Rashawn Parker had to leave the game in the 1st quarter after injuring his left knee. He had to be helped off the field, and did not return to the game. Paul Rhoads did not comment on it further after tonights game, so we will have to wait and see what is said early in the week.
Alexander Robinson either strained or pulled his groin after catching his 32 yard TD pass. After getting into the end zone and fell to the ground on the sidelines and the trainers looked at him. He did get up and was able to walk on his own, although he was hobbling around. Coach Rhoads did not comment further on the injury either.

After a nice win, ISU needs to look ahead to K-State because that's a huge spot playing at Arrowhead next week. At 3-1, I'm going to enjoy the winning record while we have it!

What were your thoughts on the game?

More Week 3 Thoughts

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 16:00:26 -0000

Below are my thoughts about the Cyclones' win last night and some general takeaways on the season thus far:

This win isn't a season-maker, but we avoided a season-breaker. Had ISU lost this game, could you have honestly picked another game on the schedule for Iowa State to win?
Our offensive line has improved.
- Kent State has supposed to have a decent defense this year, but we ran for 227 yards on 5.5 yards per carry.
- You might say "well it's Kent State", which is true, but last year against Kent State we ran for 160 yards on 3.6 yards/carry. Phillip Bates ran for 83 of those yards on 8 carries.
- If you look at the running back play productivity against Kent State this year compare to last, they picked up 185 rushing yards averaging 5.78 yards per carry in 2009 vs. 55 rushing yards averaging 1.96 yards per carry in 2008.
- Also with protecting the quarterback, our QBs were not sacked at all last night, compared to twice against Kent State last year
- Iowa State currently sits 13th in the nation in rushing yards/game, averaging 212 thus far.

The turnovers we commit are worrisome. Iowa State is tied for last in the nation with 5 giveaways per game. Last year it was 1.7 per game.

The reason why this hasn't been hurting us as much as because of our opponent quality, and also because Iowa State is averaging 3.5 takeaways/game on defense (tied for 5th best).
Had we played a Big 12 opponent, but committed the turnovers we did last night, we would've probably lost the game. While we lost 3 fumbles, we put the ball on the ground 2 other times. It could've easily been another 6 turnover game.
As we play better opponents, the opportunities to pick up takeaways will likely decrease. Even if the takeaway rate sustained for the year, you want that to help you win games instead of keeping you in games.

We still have a lot of areas for improvement defensively. Our front front is the biggest area. The past 2 games, our front four has only combined for 12 solo tackles, 1 sack, and 4.5 tackles for a loss. 5 of those solo tackles, the 1 sack, and 2 of those tackles for a loss came from Christopher Lyle last night. As a fan, sometimes it's easy to lose sight of the details when you see 14 points allowed. Against better teams, if our front four can't step up and make some plays, we will have a hard time winning games.

Players that deserve some props from Week 3:

The entire Cyclone offensive line. They protected our QBs, and the running game picked up 227 yards, mostly because of the huge holes the line created.
Jake Williams - 4 catches, 51 yards, and 1 TD (first career)
Alexander Robinson - 23 rushes for 143 yards and 1 TD (no fumbles)
Christopher Lyle - 7 tackles (5 solo), 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, 1 pass deflection, 1 QB hurry
James Smith - 8 tackles (3 solo), and an amazing diving interception
Josh Raven - 5 tackles (all solo), 1 sack, 3 tackles for loss

Other Thoughts:

Where was Bo Williams? Down the stretch Schwartz played some, and then Beau Blankenship played a handful of snaps as well. I'm not sure if Schwartz was benched because of his fumble, or if the staff just wanted to give another guy some snaps. Bo is the 3rd guy listed on the depth chart, but we saw Blankenship play. The coaches did talk Blankenship up quite a bit in the preseason, but if he really is the 3rd guy, then list him as the 3rd guy.
This was the first time ISU has had a rusher go for over 100 yards in consecutive games since Stevie Hicks in 2005.
Austen Arnuad is now #8 all time (for ISU) in passing yardage (3,509), and is tied for 6th with Sage Rosenfels in all time completions (306). Brett Meyer is the all time leader in both categories with 9499 yards, and 820 completions
We are looking to be a better running team than passing team, which is somewhat suprising. I'm not certain what is holding the passing game up. Is it the complexitiy of the system, whereas perhaps the running is more straightforward? As a fan, I really don't care what we have to do, as long as we win games. Right now we are able to control the game by running the ball successfully, and if that is what's needed to win, I'm all for it. Perhaps in due time, the passing game will pick up and we will become a more balanced threat.

What are your takeaways from this game and also the season?

This week, we play Army. I think they will present many challenges to the Cyclones, particularly the defense. For starters, they average 257.7 yards/game. More on Army as the week goes on!

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 16:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an Iowa State offense that has shown glimpses of potential...but nearly enough of them to keep up in the Big 12 arms race. Now to the defense, which has shown...well...much less potential.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 89.6 (#93)
Success Rate+: 92.1 (#90)
PPP+: 86.8 (#96)

Standard Downs S&P+: 91.0 (#94)
Passing Downs S&P+: 82.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 85.8 (#105)

Q1 S&P+: 102.2 (#56)
Q2 S&P+: 80.1 (#112)
Q3 S&P+: 93.9 (#80)
Q4 S&P+: 81.3 (#118)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#79)
2nd Down S&P+: 84.1 (#104)
3rd Down S&P+: 81.5 (#109)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 96.6 (#76)
Rushing SR+: 99.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 92.6 (#81)

Standard Downs: 97.1 (#75)
Passing Downs: 85.3 (#92)

Redzone: 80.8 (#112)

Line Yards+: 99.9 (#55)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 81.8 (#109)
Passing SR+: 84.0 (#115)
Passing PPP+: 79.7 (#102)

Standard Downs: 83.2 (#113)
Passing Downs: 80.6 (#104)

Redzone: 88.7 (#86)

Adj. Sack Rate: 85.1 (#79)

Where Iowa State was good (or at least decent):

Line Yards+ (i.e. defensive line run support)
Q1 Defense

End of list. Despite being a smidge undersized, the defensive line did stand up well to run blocking, and they were on par with Kansas in terms of pass rushing, so we'll call the D-line a relative strength. And from their first-quarter success, we'll derive that they, in general, had decent enough game plans but not the talent/in-game adjustments to survive over 60 minutes.

Beyond that? Pretty much all bad. I make general assumptions sometimes with the data, assumptions like "Teams coached by prodigies who were previously strong defensive coordinators will tend to be pretty good on Passing Downs." No dice here. The 'Clones were bad on Standard Downs and REALLY bad on Passing Downs. And despite the presence of a seemingly very good freshman cornerback, it does appear that their secondary was about as bad as bad gets.

Defensive Line

Nate Frere...way better than his brother, Nick.

2008 Unit Ranking: #76 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Nate Frere (6'1, 283, Sr.)
DE Christopher Lyle (6'4, 252, Sr.)
DE Rashawn Parker (6'0, 260, Sr.)
DT Austin Alburtis (6'2, 267, Jr.)
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer (6'3, 290, So.)
DT Bailey Johnson (6'3, 272, Jr.)
DE Roosevelt Maggitt (6'2, 237, RSFr.)
DE Cleyon Laing (6'3, 268, RSFr.)

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

At end, Rashawn Parker (2.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QBH) has shown potential over the years, but he was pretty terrible in 2008. Though he's a "returning starter" he was far outplayed by Christopher Lyle (13.0 sacks/TFL, 2 QBH, 2 forced fumbles). Unfortunately, both are seniors, so it's likely that they've done whatever developing they're going to do. Best-case scenario here is that one of the RSFr ends breaks into the rotation pretty well and gives them a little continuity for 2010, as they're losing their top three (projected) linemen to graduation (or at least exhausted eligibility) after this year.

Linebackers

What a great picture this is. I bet Jesse Smith's mom has a few copies of this one.

2008 Unit Ranking: #94 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jesse Smith (6'0, 231, Sr.)
Fred Garrin (6'2, 230, Sr.)
Justin Rumple (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Josh Raven (5'11, 230, Sr.)
Matt Taufoou (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Derec Schmidgall (6'2, 230, Sr.)

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it. If there's a silver lining in this unit, it's Matt Taufoou, a late commitment to Rhoads who, if I read correctly, was initially committed to Tennessee. He comes to Ames with a decent JUCO resume, and lord knows there's a starting spot waiting for him if he can quickly prove himself.

Secondary

Leonard Johnson was a straight-up stud as a freshman.

2008 Unit Ranking: #109 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.)
S James Smith (5'9, 191, Sr.)
S Zac Sandvig (5'10, 190, Jr.)
CB Ter'ran Benton (6'1, 196, So.)
S David Sims (5'10, 212, Jr.)
CB Kennard Banks (5'10, 189, Sr.)
CB Devin McDowell (5'9, 177, Jr.)
S Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.)

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

Again, there's a sliver of hope here in the form of a player who initially committed to a good team. You've got Bo Williams (originally of Florida) at running back, Taufoou at linebacker, and now David Sims, who originally signed with OU out of JUCO in 2008 (and then...well, I'm not really sure what happened, but now he's in Ames), stepping in at safety. As with Taufoou, there is a starting spot available if he can come in and prove himself.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 Net Punting, #52 Punt Returns, #12 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Grant Mahoney (6'1, 154, So.) - 33-for-33 PAT, 17-for-25 FG (Long: 48)
P Mike Brandtner (6'1, 211, Sr.) - 51 Punts, 35.6 Net
KR Leonard Johnson (5'10, 189, So.) - 41 Returns, 26.4 Avg
PR Michael O'Connell (6'0, 201, Jr.) - 9 returns, 8.6 Avg

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Summary

When you're relying on JUCO transfers to significantly boost your athleticism, you're probably in trouble. But between Frere, Je. Smith, and Johnson, there is at least one solid player in each unit, which is something. I don't want to come down too hard on Iowa State here--they're playing in a relatively weak division and can certainly knock off a division rival or two--but it really does seem like it will take Paul Rhoads a couple of years to build the talent level up to something worthwhile. Like Bill Snyder, he'll be able to pretty quickly work some of his own recruits into the rotation with the number of mediocre seniors this defense has, but that also means that in his second year he will have an extremely young D...which usually isn't a good thing.

---

Projections on Friday.

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:00:08 -0000

The basketball and all-sports talk has distracted us from this week's game, but I think the talk has been minimal for one other reason: the only way this game will be memorable is in a bad way. If we take care of business, none of us will remember this game a year from now. If we don't...yikes. Let's not think about that. Let's just go to the numbers.

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
55.3%		% Close	73.9%
56.3%	43.7%	Field Position %	53.0%	47.0%
79.7%	67.8%	Leverage %	64.3%	71.3%

		Total
669	749	Plays	698	668
355.37	239.77	EqPts	227.72	306.33
56.3%	41.8%	Success Rate	41.3%	49.0%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.46
1.094	0.738	S&P	0.739	0.948

		Close Games
417	367	Plays	495	514
212.27	116.90	EqPts	164.87	231.79
58.0%	43.1%	Success Rate	40.6%	47.9%
0.51	0.32	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.089	0.749	S&P	0.739	0.930

		Rushing
74.85	86.99	EqPts	74.76	126.61
53.3%	40.7%	Success Rate	39.4%	47.4%
0.45	0.26	PPP	0.31	0.36
0.987	0.664	S&P	0.706	0.834
3.15	2.71	Line Yds/carry	2.73	3.24

		Passing
225.38	152.78	EqPts	123.74	179.72
60.2%	42.7%	Success Rate	41.9%	50.6%
0.56	0.37	PPP	0.36	0.57
1.163	0.799	S&P	0.778	1.075
2.2%	6.1%	Sack Rate	4.3%	4.7%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.4%	47.2%	Success Rate	48.3%	53.2%
0.54	0.33	PPP	0.33	0.45
1.152	0.803	S&P	0.812	0.986
1.4%	4.7%	Sack Rate	4.0%	3.2%
48.0%	53.9%	Run Rate	57.0%	60.5%

		Passing Downs
40.0%	30.3%	Success Rate	26.8%	38.5%
0.41	0.30	PPP	0.36	0.47
0.814	0.602	S&P	0.632	0.855
4.0%	8.0%	Sack Rate	4.6%	7.0%
24.2%	27.0%	Run Rate	31.4%	33.3%

		Turnovers
15	17	Total	17	24
41.72	39.57	Points Lost	42.73	61.30
32.41	63.42	Points Given	39.47	63.66
74.13	102.99	Total T/O Pts	82.20	124.96
+28.86	-28.86	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+42.76	-42.76

Thoughts after the jump...

One specific way ISU stays in this game and/or pulls it out: turnovers. Missouri has been more careless with the ball than usual over the last two games, and Gene Chizik's defense has actually been pretty strong at forcing turnovers. ISU has an all-or-nothing defense--they either make a big play or give up a big play (more of the latter than the former)--but that can still make your life uneasy in bad weather. In 2006, Missouri was a few plays away from breaking the game wide open in the first quarter until Tony Temple fumbled. That gave ISU's offense a breather until they could get that damn fullback Ryan Kock rolling, and we know what happened after that. Turnovers = the only way ISU can win this game.
Austen Arnaud actually does a pretty decent job of both getting rid of the ball quickly (low sack rate, even on Passing Downs) and not panicking and throwing bad INTs (only 6 picks in 302 passes). They trust him in this regard, as they actually throw quite a bit in Passing Down situations--they don't take the easy way out (a la Colorado) and run 40% of the time in Passing Downs. He's a mature presence in the pocket...he's just not all that good a presence in the pocket. He's not all that accurate, and his receivers aren't big-play threats (plus, even though he's decent in Passing Downs, the ISU offense still faces far too many Passing Downs), but ISU's offense won't beat itself. It's capable of dinking and dunking all the way down the field if you don't make a play.
Alexander Robinson has played well as of late, and considering how well he played last time he faced Mizzou, I'd actually expect a decent day out of him. He's much quicker than 19th-year senior Jason Scales, and he's ISU's biggest big-play threat.
In the turnover figures and the decent Passing Downs success rate, you can see hints of the aggressive defense Gene Chizik wants to play. But the personnel is simply not there. Junior Jesse Smith is a solid MLB (the least important position on the field for facing Missouri), DEs Christopher Lyle and Kurtis Taylor are solid pass rushers (they've combined for a respectable 9 sacks), WLB Fred Garrin is a nice playmaker (5 TFL, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 2 pass breakups), and Leonard Johnson (2 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 1 TFL, 3 pass breakups, 40 tackles) is a potentially great freshman CB. But none of these guys are rock-solid on every play--just occasionally--and that still leaves six positions on defense that aren't all that hot.
On Non-Passing Downs, basically every team Iowa State plays turns into the Missouri offense. A 53% success rate and 0.986 S&P are simply waaaaay too high. If he gets the carries (and if the weather's bad, he might), Derrick Washington could have a huge day.
Did I mention how huge turnovers are? Just checking.

On to the situational stats...

Mizzou	Opp.		ISU	Opp.
		Q1
57.9%	46.8%	Success Rate	41.9%	42.1%
0.56	0.28	PPP	0.36	0.36
1.137	0.747	S&P	0.782	0.783

		Q2
59.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	40.0%	55.6%
0.49	0.27	PPP	0.27	0.47
1.088	0.669	S&P	0.665	1.028

		Q3
55.6%	40.5%	Success Rate	41.5%	42.8%
0.54	0.37	PPP	0.31	0.48
1.096	0.771	S&P	0.725	0.909

		Q4
51.3%	40.5%	Success Rate	42.3%	54.8%
0.44	0.37	PPP	0.42	0.51
0.950	0.772	S&P	0.842	1.054

		1st Downs
58.2%	43.3%	Success Rate	45.6%	48.4%
0.55	0.33	PPP	0.34	0.43
1.130	0.764	S&P	0.796	0.912

		2nd Downs
57.2%	38.6%	Success Rate	38.9%	47.9%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.33	0.44
1.039	0.700	S&P	0.716	0.922

		3rd Downs
50.9%	41.0%	Success Rate	34.3%	48.4%
0.51	0.28	PPP	0.35	0.50
1.015	0.694	S&P	0.697	0.982

Iowa State's defense is extra horrible in Q2 and Q4. That suggests that the game-planning and adjustments are there...but the talent and speed are not. Opponents are able to wear ISU down and make plays eventually.
ISU's offensive success rates are best on first down. If Mizzou allows Alexander Robinson to get some yards on first down, ISU could milk the clock and actually turn into a reasonably efficient offense. They still don't have any big playmakers, but Baylor was able to move the ball without too many big plays. The difference, of course, is that Mizzou was playing an umbrella defense to contain Hot Tub Griffin III. They'll likely be much more aggressive with a less mobile Arnaud in the backfield.
I reference this every week, I think, but the quarter-to-quarter and down-to-down consistency of the Missouri offense is impressive.
ISU probably won't move the ball in Q2. It's their worst offensive quarter, and it's the Mizzou defense's best quarter.

Key Players: Iowa State

RB Alexander Robinson

Two years ago, with a wind chill of 31 degrees, Iowa State played keep-away and punished Mizzou with a steady diet of the beefy Ryan Kock (32 carries, 179 yards). That, combined with the fact that about 18 Mizzou WRs/TEs got hurt that day and Chase Daniel was trying to lead a comeback throwing only to a sophomore Tommy Saunders and freshmen Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, all but sealed Missouri's fate*. At 5'10, 182 pounds, Robinson is quite clearly not built like Kock, but he had a great game against Missouri last year (21 carries, 149 yards--his success kept the game close and kept Pig Brown on the field late in Q4...when he injured his Achilles), and he's all-in-all a pretty solid sophomore running back. His 0.708 S&P isn't amazing, but a) it's improved in recent games, and b) it's infinitely better than Jason Scales' 0.654 or JJ Bass' 0.556. Scales is a more efficient back (40% success rate to Robinson's 38%), but barely. If ISU is going to successfully play keep-away again, it's on Robinson's shoulders.

* I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold. I will not mention the phantom hold.

WR RJ Sumrall

If Robinson isn't ISU's best chance at a big play, it's Sumrall, who like Scales, seems to have been at Iowa State for decades. His 0.912 PPP is by far the most explosive on the team (Sedrick Johnson's 0.763 is the only other one over 0.7...which is pretty bad). He's certainly experienced, and it's Senior Day, so it's quite possible Sumrall makes a big play or two in the passing game. If he doesn't, I can't see who will. Then again, he'll likely be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment, so maybe I should go with Johnson instead?

LB Fred Garrin

He and Leonard Johnson are as close to being a turnover machine as Gene Chizik has. If Mizzou has a costly turnover, chances are one of these two guys will be involved in it.

P Mike Brandtner

In a cold weather game, ISU has one other pathway to success: success in the field position battle. With wind a factor, he could (assuming he punts a lot--and he better) potentially pin Mizzou pretty deep in 2 of 4 quarters. What that will mean, among other things, is more opportunities for ISU's defense to hit Mizzou's skill position players and wear them out. You won't want to hit the ground too hard on Saturday--it's cold and hard--and if Mizzou starts their drives with long fields, they might score, but they might not have their legs about them as much later in the game.

Key Players: Missouri

QB Chase Daniel

It's easy, really. Chase rediscovers his mojo, Mizzou wins going away. He makes another few stupid throws, and ISU can make him pay, just like Baylor and Oklahoma State did (and just like KSU could have, had they had any sort of offensive success).

RB Derrick Washington

November's when Tony Temple started to turn it on during his career--a frigid, windy Jack Trice Stadium just screams "20-25 carries for Washington". If he goes "20 carries for 126 yards and 2-3 TDs," Mizzou wins easy. If it's more like "15 carries, 58 yards," then Chase will have to make a lot more windy throws.

FS William Moore

He's shown flashes of "Willy Mo '07" here and there, but the dude has cost himself some money with his play this year. He's only been solid, not amazing. But he's got 3-4 more games to remind Mizzou fans of what they thought they had in him for '08. He's still one of my favorite Mizzou players ever, but he's certainly had a disappointing season.

P Jake Harry

As always...the less we see of him, the bigger the winning margin. Love ya, Jake, but here's to hoping for another "1 punt, 41 yards" line from you.

Summary and Prediction

Monday's BTBS projections said Mizzou would take this one 39-23. Last week I combined the BTBS projections with the turnover averages and nailed the margin of victory...right up until Ron Prince pulled a Ron Prince and KSU got two junk TDs in the last two minutes. So we'll go with that. Taking what looks like about a 1-2 point ISU turnover advantage into account, we'll make that a nice and tidy 38-24 Mizzou win. With the wind and general misery of a Jack Trice Stadium encounter, this game could be closer than we'd like to think. I expect a closer game than a lot people, but I refuse to believe that Chase Daniel won't find a way to win this game, and probably comfortably. Mizzou clinches the North on Saturday.

Poll

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

3 votes

ISU's ability to force turnovers

6 votes

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

38 votes

Nothing

24 votes

71 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Christopher Lyle

Iowa State Week 5 Wrap-Up Part 2

Week 4: ISU 31, Army 10

More Week 3 Thoughts

New Depth Chart Released

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Mizzou-ISU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

ISU

Opp.

Key Players: Iowa State

Key Players: Missouri

Summary and Prediction

What scares you most about MU-ISU?

RB Alexander Robinson

ISU's ability to force turnovers

BEWARE THE WINDS OF JACK TRICE STADIUM!!!

Nothing