SB Nation - Reggie Stephens

Q&A with the Iowa State Blog, Clone Chronicles

irish1611 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 05:00:34 -0000

The Ralphie Report sat down with the fine Iowa State blog on SBNation, Clone Chronicles, to discuss many things like this weekend's game, how Iowa State has played after beating Nebraska three weeks ago, QB Austen Arnaud and finally, some predictions.

A couple weeks ago, Iowa State beat Nebraska in Lincoln. No small feat at all but were aided by eight Husker turnovers. On the flip side, Iowa State was without two offensive starters in QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson. The rest of the Cyclones' victories have come against North Dakota State, Kent State, Army and Baylor (minus Robert Griffin). I guess, as a fan, how do you feel about this team and are you pleased with their performance this year?

Most ISU fans know that all 8 turnovers needed to happen in order to win this game. Still though, they had their backup QB, backup RB (who now isn't even listed on the two-deeps), and were able to snap a 33 year losing streak in Lincoln. People aren't going to be down about that at all.

As far as how good the team is, I'd say it's improved from last year in some respects, but worse in other areas. I think we're comparable to the rest of the North. Remember, ISU had chances against K-State and KU, losing by a combined 6 points. ISU was just short of being 4-1 in the North right now, and this question wouldn't even be brought up.

As far as record goes, I predicted 6-6 before the season started, so it's about par for my expectations in that respect. As far as what I'm seeing on the field, I am mostly disappointed in the offense. ISU's offense was decent last year, and kept them in some games. This year with adding a coordinator like Tom Herman, you would've thought that ISU's offense would improve, but have only scored 27 points the last three games.

Even if ISU loses out and is 5-7, it would be very disappointing at first, but in retrospect it'd be hard to say it was a bad year.

I realize that this schedule wasn't all that tough as you were pointing out (57^th according to Sagarin), but it's still a little tougher than Penn State's (72^nd according to Sagarin) for example. What's worse, having ISU who generally ranks in the 50-70 range in terms of recruiting lose 5 games at this point, or have Penn State lose 2 games with an easier schedule and a program that brings in some top talent? It's probably about the same if you think about it.

I've just come to find that if ISU does poorly, people will point out how we suck, will always suck, etc. If we do better than people expect, they find ways to point out how we really aren't that "good".

I think ISU is team that's competitive within a very mediocre division (close games to KSU, KU, and NU so far). But with 68 teams going to bowl games, there's bound to be some mediocre teams in the mix.

click after the jump to see the rest of the interview:

The last two weeks, Iowa State has had trouble on both sides of the ball. What are the few main things that need to be fixed when Colorado comes to town next weekend?

Offensively: establish the passing game. ISU is a good running team, but faced one of the best rushing defenses last week in OSU, and got down too quickly against A&M to run the ball. There are a handful of 1^st and 2^nd down passes that go incomplete, and often times this sets up a long 3^rd down. If ISU can do a better job passing earlier in the drives, they can minimize the long 3^rd downs and keep drives moving.

Defensively: Defensive line play. This has been a problem all year, but there needs to be improvement in this area. Quite simply on defense, ISU is giving the QB too much time to find the open receiver. Last week, there were possessions where Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson was able to scan all of his receivers with absolutely zero pressure. Often times the secondary is getting held out to dry. Also, a majority of ISU's sacks (which aren't many) are coverage sacks. It may look like ISU's secondary isn't good, but they're decent. It's the D-Line making them look bad.

I doubt these will be fixed, but steady improvement in those areas from last week would go a long way.

A bright spot of this year's team has to be the offensive line. Just looking at the stats, RB Alexander Robinson has statistically had a nice year on the ground. Overall, Iowa State ranks third in the Big12 in rushing and second in total sacks given up (10th in the nation overall). Just how good has the offensive line been or are the stats misleading?

The O-Line is one of the better ones in the Big 12 I think. If Reggie Stephens doesn't get on the All Big 12 team, I'll go ballistic. This unit was a straight up liability in 2008. Last year against Kent State, they couldn't get a first down on the ground on 3^rd and 1 and 4^th and inches for example. An additional year of development and playing together has helped. Also, moving Reggie Stephens from OG to C has helped a lot as well.

If ISU had better backups at QB and RB, the rushing totals and sack totals (due to the QB holding the ball for too long) would look even better than now. Regarding the sacks, it helps a lot that ISU is playing exclusively from the Shotgun, but this is a solid unit, along with one of the biggest in the nation (average weight = 326 lbs!)

What is your opinion right now of QB Austen Arnaud and the quarterback situation overall at Iowa State? Good running game, seems like a pretty solid offensive line, but Arnaud's completion percentage has regressed from a year ago. Were you expecting more from Arnaud this year?

Arnaud has had a rough year. Early in the year, he tried to do too much and had a bad game against Iowa. The next 5 games, he threw for a better completion percentage, and only threw 1 pick (vs. 4 against Iowa). His confidence was down until the KU game, and he got injured against Baylor. Against Oklahoma State, he wasn't quite himself. He made maybe 1 or 2 decent throws, made some bad reads, and was behind some receivers.

Arnaud is the undisputed leader of this team, though. When he's weary the rest of the team follows suit. He needs to quarterback the team, and hopefully, can play through some of this (poor play).

I expected him to put up similar numbers from last year with 20-25 TDs. I did think we would have to pass more than we currently are. I don't think any ISU fan anticipated that the running game would be doing so well now.

Probably a question you get a lot is about your new coach Paul Rhoads. Rhoads quickly became a college football fan favorite after the youtube video of the locker room after the Nebraska game. You have to love that sort of passion. Grade Rhoads' first year as the Iowa State head coach and talk about the feeling around the fan base about him?

I give Coach Rhoads a B for this year so far, unknown overall. They've improved in a lot of areas, and at times played better than I thought they would. Why I give him a B is because of how the team has played since beating Nebraska.
For the fans, the win over Nebraska had this sense of "mission accomplished" in terms of the season being a success. ISU was in the North race again. Getting to a bowl game became a foregone conclusion at that point, and I wonder if that attitude amongst many of the fans carried over to the team as well. I think with the casual ISU fan, that video cemented Coach Rhoads at ISU for a while. Some will be fans of his for life, regardless of win-loss record. People in Ames have a lot of ISU pride, and having a coach show that means a lot to them.

Now, the North is 99% out, and no one is quite sure that ISU will get to bowl game. The feeling amongst fans is that if ISU wins against Colorado, they have a good chance at winning at Missouri. Were if they lose to Colorado, the confidence that they will be able to win in Columbia the following week in the season finale will be very much in doubt, and rightfully so.

As far as the unknown overall grade: I like what I see at times, but obviously the ability of the coaching staff as a whole will be seen when the class that will sign this winter are juniors and seniors (Coach Rhoads first real recruiting class). It's all about recruiting and development in college football. Right now, he's winning with McCarney and Chizik's players, but soon he will have to do it with his own.

And finally prediction time:

ISU wins if they are able to run for 150 yards, pass for 200 yards, and wins the turnover battle

CU wins if they are able to shut down ISU's running game, can give their QB time to throw, and win the turnover battle.

Final Score: ISU 27, CU 24

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - 2009 Season - Week 10

Beergut — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:01:02 -0000

This is the tenth installment of the 2009 Big 12 Roundtable, a weekly feature during the season. Each week, an SB Nation Big 12 blogger will host the Roundtable and submit a series of questions to all Big 12 bloggers. This week, the Roundtable is being hosted by Clone Chronicles. Listed below are I Am The 12th Man's answers.

1. Other than texas most likely winning the South, and Baylor likely going 0-fer in the conference, there's a lot of uncertainty with teams jockeying for position in the Big 12. As the teams head into this 3 or 4 game stretch, what concerns do you have about your team? What would be considered a good season, and what would be considered a bad season? If you've already decided it's a good season or bad season regardless of what happens down the stretch, what's the storyline you're looking for as we head into the final month of the regular season?

I think the defense is still a major concern for our team. We've shown improvement this season, especially in the last two games, but we're still not anywhere close to being even an average defensive unit. If we could make some progress stopping the run, that would be a relief.

I think a 6-6 season and a bowl berth was considered the minimum expectation coming into this season, because it would show improvement over last season. I think we will be favored in two of our final four games, against Colorado and against Baylor, so if we can win those two games and guarantee us 7-win season, and possibly win our bowl game, that would be considered a good season. If we can pull an upset against either OU or texas, that would make for a very good season.

2. We haven't had a chance to talk a lot of about of the individual players. Some have performed as expected, others have had breakout seasons, while others haven't had the greatest season in 2009. By now, you're probably seen a handful of other Big 12 teams play. Pick one player on each side of the ball from another Big 12 team that you've been the most impressed with, and what about them has caught your attention.

Defensively, the guy who has impressed me the most has to be Ndamukong Suh, because he is actually better than advertised. However, since others are probably going to pick Suh, I'll go with texas' strongside defensive end Sam Acho. He has 29 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks, 4 fumble recoveries, and 1 forced fumble so far on the season. He has done all this despite often facing double-teams from the opposing RT and TE, He is a force to be reckoned with, a playmaker on the edge, and the media completely ign ores hm while they fawn over Sergio Kindle, who hasn't accomplished anything close to what Acho has done this season. It's a shame, really.

Offensively, probably the most impressive players I've seen has been center Reggie Stephensof Iowa State. Stephens has been the key player leading the Cyclones' rushing offense, which has been the best in the Big 12 so far this season. State missed Stephens last weekend against A&M.

3. What is your take on the Big 12 TV situation? It seems like every week, we have at least one Big 12 game that gets zero TV coverage, while many games are on stations that not every cable company/satellite carrier picks up (like Fox College Sports and Versus). As a Big 12 fan, do you think a change of some sort is needed, or are you happy with the coverage? Does it hurt the Big 12 that not every game is televised?

I am still a big proponent of the Big 12 getting their own television network up and running. There really is no excuse for not having every single Big 12 game televised, similar to the situation the Big Televen and the SEC has. A Big 12 Network would pay for itself during football season alone, when they replay the previous Saturday's games. Right now, schools still have the option of using PPV to show their games, but when you have athletic directors of questionable intelligence like Bill Byrne deciding not to show the games, I think the fans deserve better. Having a separate Big 12 Network would ensure all games are shown, and for those of us who are college football junkies, being able to watch every game for every conference team would be perfect.

I think the more exposure your conference can get on television, the better it is for your conference. If it were up to me, Big 12 games would be televised in every single television market in the country, and all the islands in the Pacific, too. I want every single child to be able to recognize and identify the Texas A&M block A&M logo, and getting out games televised everywhere would help accomplish that goal.

4. Let's say you had a friend that's been living under a rock the past few months, and they want to know how your team's season has gone. You only want to spend a few minutes on it, you don't want to get into the game-by-game details, so you decide to play the song that best describes your team's season thus far. What song are you playing?

Right now: "Break On Through" - The Doors

If we upset OU and/or texas: "It's The End of the World As We Know It" - REM

5. Power Rank the teams! If you find it too difficult, or don't want to participate, rank the teams based on your projected Bowl Selection Order (just make sure you designate what you are doing. Also keep in mind that K-State is the only team in the conference with 2 FCS wins, so they need to get to 7 in order to be bowl eligible).

texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Nebraska
Missouri
Colorado
Kansas
Baylor

Week 10: Oklahoma State Week Links and Thoughts

Mark Kieffer — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:07:43 -0000

After the performance in College Station, I get the feeling that a lot of ISU fans are disappointed. The best way to get over it is to move on and start looking towards the next opponent, in this case the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The new depth chart was released yesterday. The biggest change is the RB situation. Bo Williams is now listed as the #2, and Beau Blankenship is listed as the #3. Schwartz is not listed on the chart this week. So many questions have been asked about Bo, and after seeing action last week, breaking off a 44 yard run on his first ever carry, perhaps he's earned some clock. He's been an interesting story this year as people have gone the "secret weapon" angle with him, and hisi debut will add to the legend of Bo Williams.
Austen Arnaud, Alexander Robinson, and Reggie Stephens are all expected to play. Robinson looked healthy (watched the Cyclone Replay), so that's no surprise. I'm still not 100% sure on Arnaud. His injury is definitley worse than originally reported, and he's going to need to have confidence in gripping the ball in order to play. I think if we're going to give the Cowboys a game, he needs to be in and healthy. He's more decisive, can run with more authority, and he's just more comfortable than Tiller is. With Stephens, it's great to have him back for sure; he's a great player. I thought that our O-Line did a great job last week in his absence, however.
Oklahoma State is currently a 7-7.5 point favorite. I'll look at their strengths and weaknesses more in the next day or two as I work on the preview, but at first glance, I think it's a little low. I'll post more on it as I do more research.
Iowa State's Week 11 matchup against Colorado will kickoff at 1pm, and will not be televised. A little dissapointing, as ISU will either be trying to get bowl eligible, or trying to lock in on a bowl berth. Either way, probably the biggest home game in the past 5 years or so, and Cyclone fans will have to get to Jack Trice to see it. I have my ticket and am looking forward to it!
Curious about the payout a team gets for being on TV? The Cyclones will get $301,000 for being on ABC, as opposed to the $175,000 if it were to air on Versus (compared to $0 if not on TV at all). You can already figure the dollars and cents, and how much at a disadvantage ISU can have at times, as being on ABC is a big deal, and happens once every once in a while.

That's the news, and my thoughts about it at the moment. I am hosting the Big 12 Roundtable this week, so look for that on Friday or so. Also, I will do a preview for Oklahoma State, and plan on posting either on Thursday or Friday as well, so that's another thing to look for as well, along with the beginning of basketball coverage as well. Busy indeed, but a lot of fun to be able to get to many of these games, and being around the athletic program as they are looking to be on the way up after these past 3-4 years!

Week 9: Texas A&M Preview

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 16:00:35 -0000

The Basics:

Records: ISU (5-3, 2-2), A&M (4-3, 1-2)
Date: Saturday, October 31st, 2009
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Time: 2:30pm CDT
TV: None, have to listen to the radio
Line: ISU +6.5, O/U 60.5
Injuries: Reggie Stephens (out, appendix), Austen Arnaud (questionable, hand), Alexander Robinson (probable, groin), and Ter'ran Benton (out for the season, leg).

At A Glance:

ISU coming off a huge win, against all odds, tries to keep it going when they go down to Kyle field on Saturday. A lot of questions about the Cyclones heading into Saturday is this is a banged up, worn out team, with another player out in Reggie Stephens. It's going to take a similar gritty effort as last week by the Cyclones to have a shot in this one. A&M, similar to Iowa State, is coming off a big win that many did not expect either. They also appear to be healthy, and have the benefit of playing at home. The story of this game is about which team is the most motivated, and who has the most heart.

Things You Should Know, Keys to the Game, and My Prediction After The Jump!

Things You Should Know:

A-Rob should start, but Arnaud not as sure. I'd love to see both guys healthy, especially since Reggie Stephens is out. Hoping that A-Rob stays healthy all game and Arnaud finds a way to play effective as well, and that's not a shot at Tiller at all.
Texas A&M can put up the points. They are 5th in scoring, averaging 35.9 points per game. They are also 4th in yards/game, averaging 489 yards/game, 308 of which come through the air.
Texas A&M allows the points as well. They are 99th in allowing about 32 points/game. They are 94th in the yards allowed, allowing 411 yards/game, 152 of which come on the ground (72nd).
While the A&M allows a lot of yards and points, they have a solid pass rush. They are 17th in the Nation in sacks, averaging almost 3 per game. Von Miller is a man to fear, with 12 sacks, the most in the Nation.
A&M has a solid QB in Jerrod Johnson. He is 2nd in the Big 12 in passing yards, and has thrown more TDs and less INTs than Colt McCoy.
Don't look at the K-State game and think A&M will be a pushover. This is a team that's strengths play into our weaknesses. It's going to be tough to pick up a win, provided A&M shows up for the game.

There's not a whole lot of surprises here. A&M can score, but doesn't play defense, similar to Kansas. How ISU does depends on the injury situation and mental preparation. I have no idea what to expect, or how it will go.

Keys To The Game:

Take care of the football. 0 turnovers last week was beautiful, and hopefully they can continue it this week. ISU can't afford to give that potent offense extra possessions.
Force turnovers. We aren't going to pick up 8, but winning the turnover margin is key for the Cyclone victory.
Play as a team. ISU needs to have the "next guy in" attitude. They proved last week that if the whole team is on the same page, with a little bit of heart and luck, you can win.

Prediction:

ISU 21, A&M 31. I think ISU suffers a letdown with what has gone on this week. But then again, I could be dead wrong, and this team could pull another suprise. It's becoming ridiculous to try to predict the outcomes of games in the Big 12 this season...

How do you see this one playing out?

Q&A With Clones Chronicles

Beergut — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 10:00:57 -0000

Since we play Iowa State Saturday, I did a short question and answer session with Mark Kieffer, manager of the excellent SB Nation Iowa State blog, Clone Chronices. My questions and Mark's answers are listed below. To see Mark's questions and my answers, go pay him a visit.

1. Austin Arnaud and Alexander Robinson sat out the win over Nebraska in Lincoln with injuries. Are either expected to play Saturday, and how much should we see them play?

I would expect to see Alexander Robinson start. The only way he doesn't play on every down is if he tweaks his injury. He's been practicing all week. With Arnaud it's a little bit different, in that I think he's been practicing some, but it's questionable if he'll play. He injured his throwing hand, so obviously if he has issues gripping the ball, he's not going to be effective.... If I had to guess, I'd think Alexander Robinson would start at RB and Jerome Tiller will start at QB, but it will probably be a gametime decision.

Regarding the health of the team, news broke that Iowa State's starting center, Reggie Stephens, is undergoing an appendectomy. It's a huge loss because he's our best OL, and someone who's put up an All-Big 12 type of season.

2. We are a team that likes to go no-huddle, run a lot of plays, and move the ball through the air. Looking at the teams you have already played this season, the team that most closely resembles what we do offensively might be Kansas, which your defense gave up 41 points to. After giving up 442 passing yards to Kansas, are you worried about your secondary playing a similar type offense in this game?

It's kind of tricky. I'd say I'm more concerned with the D-Line than the secondary to be honest. I think most of our secondary are some pretty good players. The problem with the game against Kansas (and other teams) is the lack of ability to get a pass rush with the front four. There have been times where I felt like they've held the secondary out to dry. With a good QB having all day to find the open guy, it makes the secondary look bad. If the D-Line can put pressure on the QB, I think the ISU secondary looks better. In short, am I worried about giving up a lot of passing yards? Until the D-Line gets better, absolutely.

3. I'm sure the upset win over Nebraska has changed expectations a bit in Ames, allowing people to dream about what might be possible this season. What do you think is a realistic expectation for how Iowa State will finish this year? Bowl game? Division championship?

I think most ISU fans feel like they will get to a bowl game. Most Iowa State fans are optimistic about Colorado at home, getting them 6-6. Now obviously 6-6 doesn't guarentee anything, but I think there's a good deal of ISU fans that assume if this team got to 6-6, they would get an invite. With the way Iowa State has played close to teams (other than Iowa), the fans think that ISU has a shot in every game they play. As far as winning the North, I don't think most fans expect that. Losing those games to K-State and Kansas hurt ISU's chances if it comes to a tiebreaker, and I don't think any fan is thinking they will win it outright.... There are some ISU fans playing the "what-if" game and talk about "how they could be 4-0 right now in the conference", but most fans are moving past that. To be honest, to have 5 wins this season after coming off a 3 win and a 2 win season the previous two years, most fans are ecstatic. They only way they'd be dissapointed at this point is if ISU didn't get bowl eligible.

4. How much should we expect to see Jerome Tiller and Jeremiah Schwartz in this game?

I wouldn't be surprised if Jerome Tiller started. Even if Arnaud did try to give it a go, he may have a short hook if the injury is still bothering him. If Arnaud finds a way to play and is looking sharp, he's in the whole game. He's the leader of the team, and the guy without a question.

With Jeremiah Schwartz, it's more dicey. Alexander Robinson has been taking the carries and playing on almost every down when healthy. If that's the case, Schwartz may get 5 carries or so, just to give Robinson a rest. Iowa State hasn't been rotating their backs like you see some teams go. They pretty much go with whoever is starting for the most part.

5. What is your score prediction for the game?

I'll pick A&M to win 31-21. I think ISU gets going in the ground game, and is able to eat clock, limiting the points scored by A&M. This defense is playing with more confidence than ever, and they will find a way to get a takeaway or two. I just think that coming off an emotional win, the uncertainty at QB, combined with missing their best OL, and the fact this team has been fighting the flu and other nagging injuries the previous week, and I think a letdown is in order.

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

Browse more photos »

The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Yeah, yeah...I'm a day late with this. I'm not your nerd jester! We are down to our second-to-last regular season opponent of the year, the Cyclones of Iowa State. Once again, a new era starts in Ames. Is Paul Rhoads the man for the job?

2008

Record: 2-10 (0-8 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 177.7 (104th in the country, 12th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 304-430 (-126)
Conference Scoring Margin: 176-334 (-158)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #107 Kent State, 1-AA South Dakota State
Losses: #10 Missouri, #13 Iowa, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #88 UNLV, #98 Texas A&M

This is going to be the backhanded compliment of all backhanded compliments, but...for a 2-10 team that didn't beat a team ranked higher than 107th, Iowa State really wasn't that bad. They managed a scoring margin of just -126 points, which certainly isn't good at all, but again...for a 2-10 team, that could have been worse. That's what happens when you lose by 2 to Kansas, 3 to UNLV, 4 to Colorado, 8 to Kansas State, 12 to Iowa, and 14 to Texas A&M. If ISU had just figured out a way to be five points better in 2008, they would have been a much more respectable 5-7...

...and Gene Chizik would have left anyway. In the end, results from 2008 don't matter because Iowa State is once again starting from scratch in 2009. They've got some experience here and there, but a) probably not enough, and b) we don't really know what Paul Rhoads is going to do with that talent until the season starts.

Coaching

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads
Record at Iowa State: UNDEFEATED!!!!

Paul Rhoads has been a pretty stellar defensive coordinator for many years at the college level, but I think when he was being considered for the job, his most important qualification was what comes at the beginning of the second paragraph of his bio (PDF): "Born in Nevada, Iowa, just 10 minutes from Jack Trice Stadium..."

For all of Rhoads' accomplishments, the biggest draw for hiring him to coach the Cyclones had to have been simply that he's an Iowa boy (alma mater: Missouri Western), he likely considers ISU much more of a destination job than the last guy they hired, and he won't be looking for a bigger lilypad the moment the opportunity arises. He will build Iowa State for the long haul, and I think as long as he produces any sort of results whatsoever, he will be given a lot of rope.

An assistant to Dan McCarney when McCarney first came to Ames, Rhoads pretty quickly worked his way up the coaching ladder. He was LB/DB coach for five seasons in Ames before Walt Harris hired him as Defensive Coordinator for the Pitt Panthers. In eight seasons with Pittsburgh, he put together consistently solid defenses and was maintained when Walt Harris left for Stanford and the Wannstache took over. Pitt's defenses forced a ton of turnovers and always ranked pretty highly in terms of yardage allowed. In 2008, he moved south, replacing Will Muschamp as Auburn's Defensive Coordinator. Auburn's basic stats slipped under Rhoads, but everybody pretty much agreed that they were asked to do far too much with an incompetent Tiger offense putting them in sub-optimal situations.

Like Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Mike Sherman, Rhoads assumes a Big 12 head coaching position with a strong defensive background. How will that translate to life in the Big 12 North? How much will recruiting need to improve for the Cyclones to move into the North's upper echelon (which, let's face it, isn't that "upper" at the moment)? Can it happen?

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 88.1 (#101)
Success Rate+: 90.3 (#100)
PPP+: 86.1 (#101)

Standard Downs S&P+: 92.1 (#91)
Passing Downs S&P+: 92.8 (#87)

Redzone S&P+: 82.3 (#112)

Q1 S&P+: 92.6 (#82)
Q2 S&P+: 89.4 (#99)
Q3 S&P+: 78.2 (#114)
Q4 S&P+: 110.9 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#82)
2nd Down S&P+: 93.9 (#84)
3rd Down S&P+: 89.4 (#90)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 88.4 (#97)
Rushing SR+: 90.7 (#99)
Rushing PPP+: 86.8 (#94)

Standard Downs: 89.7 (#96)
Passing Downs: 95.2 (#80)

Redzone: 80.2 (#112)

Line Yards+: 90.5 (#102)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 87.5 (#94)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#90)
Passing PPP+: 85.0 (#93)

Standard Downs: 94.4 (#79)
Passing Downs: 90.1 (#88)

Redzone: 89.1 (#86)

Sack Rate+: 105.5 (#56)

Aside from their 3rd-to-4th quarter splits, these numbers are pretty consistently terrible. It's important to remember the strength-of-schedule component to the "+" number here. Iowa State put respectable offensive numbers--25.3 points per game, 386.8 total yards, 5.5 yards per play--but these came against defenses that were giving up 400 or 500 yards to everybody else (plus, a lot of the yards came at the end of blowouts). In the end, the 387 yards per game were far below what would have been expected against the defenses Iowa State faced, and it damaged their rankings.

Other thoughts:

Aside from their strong fourth-quarter rankings (which, as we've seen with other teams, can be skewed if you're blowing other teams out, or getting blown out, and your starters aren't playing much in the fourth quarter), ISU's biggest strength was in pass blocking, where they were above average with a 105.5 Sack Rate+, 56th in the country. Beyond that? Not much to be happy about...or, for an opponent, not much to be scared of.
ISU was consistently below-average in both the running and passing games, ranking 97th and 94th, respectively. They ranked between 90th and 101st in most Success Rate+ and PPP+ breakouts. They were bad across the board.

Quarterback

The stats don't like Austen Arnaud, but he's got at least a decent amount of upside.

2008 Unit Ranking: #92 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Austen Arnaud (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Jerome Tiller (6'4, 185, RSFr.)
Brett Bueker (6'4, 213, RSFr.)

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

That said, if Arnaud has strong receiving talent around him, he's a good enough passer to get them the ball and let them make him look good. He does not, in fact, have that talent around him.

Behind Arnaud are a couple of big (well, tall...at 6'4, 185, Jerome Tiller is far from big--Mizzou WR L'Damian Washington is supposedly 6'4, 180, and Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond can't help but mention how skinny he is every time they talk about him) youngsters fighting it out to become his successor in 2011. Tiller was a decent-looking 3-star recruit in high school and is likely being groomed for the job.

Running Backs

If Alexander Robinson always played like he did in 2007 against Missouri, he'd be an all-conference back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #90 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alexander Robinson (5'10, 184, Jr.)
Bo Williams (6'0, 217, So.)
Jeremiah Schwartz (5'11, 238, RSFr.)

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in AdjustedPOE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Of course, average is better than poor, which is what Austen Arnaud's pass targets were, so Robinson officially qualifies as a bright spot from 2008. He will be joined in the backfield by the intriguing Bo Williams, a former 4-star recruit who originally signed with Florida before transferring. Williams and Robinson running behind a reasonably experienced offensive line suggests that Iowa State's running game should improve a decent amount in 2009. But when your RBs are ranked 90th in the country, improvement only takes them to what...75th? 70th? Still some work to do here, but clearly Williams has some potential.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Darius Darks: possibly ISU's most potentially explosive threat, "potentially" being the key word.

2008 Unit Ranking: #96 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Darius Darks (6'1, 175, So.)
Sedrick Johnson (6'4, 199, So.)
Marquis Hamilton (6'4, 228, Sr.)
Houston Jones (6'1, 193, Sr.)
Jason Carlson (6'0, 205, So.)
Lonzie Range (6'3, 183, RSFr.)
Darius Reynolds (6'3, 190, Jr.)
Joshua Bellamy (6'1, 200, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Derrick Catlett (6'4, 252, Sr.)
Collin Franklin (6'6, 248, Jr.)
Carter Bykowski (6'8, 249, So.)

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

Marquis Hamilton and Houston Jones are what they are--if this were baseball, I'd be calling them innings eaters (the Josh Fogg variety more than the Esteban-Loaiza-in-his-prime variety) and leave it at that--so really, if this is going to become a truly dangerous unit, newcomers will need to play a role. One of two JUCO transfers, either Darius Reynolds or Joshua Bellamy, will need to turn out pretty capable, or they'll need to luck out with another ready-to-rumble true freshman or two (main candidates: Josh Lenz, Donnie Jennert, or Keith Blanton). Reynolds, a 4-star JUCO recruit from Reedley CC in California, has the best resume of the bunch, but we'll see.

UPDATE, 1:57pm - I completely forgot to talk about the tight ends.

As down as I am about a few of Iowa State's units, I actually like their tight ends a decent amount. Even though Derek Catlett only managed 20 catches for 220 yards last year, he finished the year with eight catches and 121 yards in the final two games, against Missouri and Kansas State. I realize I'm probably high on him simply because he looked really good against Mizzou and was non-existent to me the rest of the year, but it is what it is. Meanwhile, Collin Franklin is pretty decent as well. Really, if we look at the two players as one entity, they're impressive--35 catches, 478 yards, 2 TDs. They're not all-conference caliber players, but at the very least one of them could emerge as one of the better North tight ends behind Mike McNeill (and hopefully Andrew Jones).

Offensive Line

Big dude.

2008 Unit Ranking: #89 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Reggie Stephens (6'4, 338, Sr.)
G Ben Lamaak (6'5, 320, Jr.)
C Alex Alvarez (6'2, 294, Jr.)
T Hayworth Hicks (6'3, 354, Jr.)
T Kelechi Osmele (6'5, 338, So.)
T Matt Hulbert (6'7, 299, Jr.)
G Joseph Klerekoper (6'5, 305, So.)
G Trey Baysinger (6'6, 317, So.)
T Zack Spears (6'6, 306, So.)
C Ethan Tuftee (6'4, 294, Fr.)

When I was initially ranking offensive lines, I didn't take into account strength of schedule enough. Now that I have a full-fledged SackRate+ number to call on...yeah, Iowa State doesn't look that great. One thing they do have going for them, however, is experience. Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.

Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Then again, a variation of this huge line ranked 102nd in LineYards+ last year, so maybe not.

Summary

If you're looking at specific moments, you can talk yourself into Iowa State a bit. Austen Arnaud went 27-for-45 for 268 yards and 3 TDs against a pretty good Kansas secondary in 2008. Alexander Robinson put up 87 yards in just 11 carries against Nebraska. Darius Darks had seven catches for 113 yards against Oklahoma State. Bo Williams signed with Florida...Florida! But you need more than moments to keep up in the Big 12, and it's still hard to rank given Iowa State units too highly, even within just the Big 12 North. Arnaud's not as good as Todd Reesing, and he's probably not as good as (or at least no better than) Blaine Gabbert or Zac Lee. Robinson's certainly not as good or as proven as Derrick Washington or Roy Helu, Jr. Darks and Sedrick Johnson are not going to remind anybody of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier...or even Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. The line has experience and potential...but Missouri's offensive line has experience, potential, and actual results.

I love nothing more than pointing out "These guys aren't as good/bad as you think" as much as humanly possible. But while Iowa State certainly has the potential to put things together and win a couple of Big 12 games if things go right, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they just don't have enough to compete week in and week out. It will be interesting to see how Paul Rhoads both a) develops what he's got and b) figures out how to attract more talent to Ames, but I think expectations are low for Year #1 for very good reason. Prove me wrong, 'Clones.

One Week from Big 12 Media Day

Mark Kieffer — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 04:46:23 -0000

In one week from today, Big 12 Media will be underway with Coach Paul Rhoads, QB Austen Arnaud, G Reggie Stephens, and DT Nate Frere representing ISU. For many, it is the kickoff to the start of football season. Coaches and players will discuss the upcoming football season.

As an ISU fan, however, media day is always a bit of a disappointment. I would expect this trend to continue this year, and here's why:

Paul Rhoads overexposure (at least locally)

For those of us living in Central Iowa, we've seen Paul Rhaods on TV and have heard him on the radio several times since taking over in January. Everytime I've heard the man speak, he's essentially said the same thing over and over. Being physical, passionate, working on fundamentals, improving, etc. You can't really blame him as there hasn't been a game yet, and everything that's being said is pretty much coach-speak.

We will not really know much about this football team until we see them suit up and play a real game (Spring Practice does not count). Coach comes across as a pretty straight-forward guy, but you can tell he will want our game to do the talking, instead of himself. I doubt he'll get into predictions for wins and losses other than probably saying that they think they will do better than expected (as do I). I highly doubt he will bad mouth any other teams and coaches a la Lane Kiffen and his fellow SEC brethern.

If you've been paying attention to ISU this offseason, you probably aren't going to learn anything new, and you're likely to hear many themes repeated. What's the over/under on the phrase "We will hit you coming off the bus" ?

Lack of hype

This is a topic that often comes up during media day on the message boards. Posters want to know what kinds of questions are being asked, and what the feelings are about ISU. I can assure you that the answer will range from generic to slightly negative.

If you don't believe me, just look around. ESPN's Big 12 reporter/blogger hardly ever mentions ISU. Over the past couple of weeks he has mentioned the following about ISU:

The Seneca Wallace Run is his #24 best Big 12 Football Memory (Hey Tim, it was in 2002 not 2001!)
The Des Moines Register had a poll for the Greatest ISU Player Ever
Paul Rhoads likes motorcycles, wants to learn to fly, and has grown a beard over the summer
ISU should fear NDSU
Jack Trice is apparently the worst stadium in the Big 12
Our game against Iowa is going to be hard.

Not exactly ground-breaking stuff, and this is going to be one of the guys at media day! With Nebraska and Oklahoma State going on Monday as well, I'm guessing the media will be more prepped for these teams, and not do much research about ISU. They will resort to general questions about the new coaching staff, and improving for the upcoming season.

I am guessing we'll have zero guys on the preseason All Big 12 team, and we'll be picked to finish last in the conference as well, as we already have by several publications.

Don't get me wrong though. I am not being totally down on the team. I'm looking forward to our new offense, and to see if the defense has improved. I am more than ready to erase this 2-10 nightmare from last year and watch the team prove the everyone they're better than most people think.

My point is that the media isn't going to pay attention to us until we turn the ship around, start winning games, and having winning seasons. Since this is a media event, I think it's going to be somewhat lackluster for an ISU fan.

For the amount hoopla that surrounds this event, I typically learn little if anything. I am hoping that I will be wrong this year, but I still feel like the answers to our questions will be realized when we step foot on the field against the Bison on September 3rd.

As an ISU fan, what are your thoughts on media day?

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Bill C. — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football. Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons. Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers. Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge. Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs. Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility. While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened. And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected. Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen. Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous. Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009. Daniel and Harrell? Gone. Crabtree and Maclin? Almost certainly gone. McCoy, Bradford, Freeman? Possibly gone. Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris? Gone. Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility. So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus. Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion." For '09? "New" Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009. We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009. We'll start with the North Division. To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers. There will certainly be a time and place for that. Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings. And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits. Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy. Plus, you'll probably be wrong. Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Quarterbacks

Kansas (Todd Reesing)
Kansas State (Josh Freeman--for now)
Iowa State (Austen Arnaud)
Missouri (Blaine Gabbert)
Nebraska (Patrick Witt/Zac Lee)
Colorado (Cody Hawkins/Tyler Hansen)

I probably shouldn't stick CU's duo below two relative newcomers at MU and NU, but I just can't help it. And if Josh Freeman is gone and Carson Coffman is next year's starter at KSU, pencil KSU into the #4 or #5 spot. And while either Gabbert or Witt/Lee (Pac Litt?) can or will overtake Arnaud by the end of the season, I couldn't rank two returning starters below QBs who've never taken a meaningful snap.

Running Backs

Missouri (Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore)
Nebraska (Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille)
Kansas (Jake Sharp, Jocques Crawford)
Colorado (Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott)
Iowa State (Alexander Robinson)
Kansas State (Lamark Brown, Logan Dold)

Of all the departures for '09, the running back position actually looks not only solid, but strong. Washington, Helu and Sharp are all relatively proven at this point, and at any moment Stewart and Scott could emerge in a big way. Even Alexander Robinson and Lamark Brown have had their moments this year. This is something to watch for '09--while offenses may not be as high-flying, they still might be pretty darn effective thanks to the ground games.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas (Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier, Johnathan Wilson)
Missouri (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones)
Kansas State (Brandon Banks, Deon Murphy, Aubrey Quarles)
Nebraska (Niles Paul, Menelik Holt, Mike McNeill)
Colorado (Josh Smith, Scotty McKnight, Riar Geer)
Iowa State (Houston Jones, Sedrick Johnson, Derrick Catlett)

Kansas is clearly #1 here, but after that, #2-#5 is something of a crapshoot. I feel like a homer for putting Mizzou at #2, but while they won't have the speed of KSU's unit, they'll still have the speed-size mix that few other teams do. And naturally, I'm assuming Jeremy Maclin is gone. Mizzou is clearly #1 if Maclin returns, but I very much do not see that happening. Paul and Holt could make NU's unit pretty effective, but they haven't gone all the way in proving that just yet.

Offensive Lines

Missouri (OG Kurtis Gregory, C Tim Barnes, OT Elvis Fisher)
Nebraska (C Jacob Hickman, OG Keith Williams, OT Jaivorio Burkes)
Colorado (OT Nate Solder, OT Ryan Miller, OG Devin Head)
Kansas State (OG Brock Unruh, OT Edward Prince, OT Nick Stringer)
Kansas (OT Jeremiah Hatch, OT Jeff Spikes)
Iowa State (OG Reggie Stephens, OT Ben Lamaak, C Alex Alvarez)

Missouri will have by far the highest-upside offensive line in the North next year. That can only help when a) protecting a young QB and b) clearing the way for the North's #1 RB. If Mizzou is to win the North despite having to replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, it's Washington and the nice O-line who will get it done.

After Mizzou, NU's probably got the most upside in this unit. Colorado's fought through youth and injuries this year and could emerge next year with a solid O-line because of the struggles. After that...no idea. KSU returns quite a bit from an iffy-at-best O-line, and KU loses both starting guards and center. Not good. And while I like Reggie Stephens at ISU, he's about all ISU has.

So, keeping this as unscientific as possible, if we assign 6 points for every #1 ranking, 5 for every #2, et cetera, how do the North offenses add up?

North Offenses, 2009

Missouri (20 points)
Kansas (18 points)
Nebraska (15 points)
Kansas State (13 points)
Colorado (10 points)
Iowa State (8 points)

If Josh Freeman goes pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (18)
Nebraska (16)
Kansas State (10)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (9)

If Jeremy Maclin DOESN'T go pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (17)
Nebraska (15)
Kansas State (13)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (8)

I'm obviously not going to take this rather arbitrary ranking system too seriously and say "See? This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Missouri will have the best offense in the North next year!" or anything like that. This does show, though, that each team will have defined strengths and weaknesses (Mizzou = good running, iffy passing; Kansas = good passing, iffy blocking, KSU = good passing, no running, CU = possibly good running, no passing), which means unit-to-unit matchups and home-road scheduling will matter more next year than it has in the last couple of years.

And speaking of those matchups, tomorrow we'll look at North defenses.