SB Nation - Marquis Hamilton

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition

Mark Kieffer — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:00:42 -0000

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

I think it would beat Texas without a doubt. I'm not going to get into all the positions, but if you had an offense with a solid Offensive Line, Reesing at QB, with receivers like Dez Briscoe, Brandon Banks, Kerry Meier, and Marquis Hamilton, combined with a RB rotation of (healthy) Alexander Robinson, Roy Helu, Jake Sharp, and Daniel Thomas, they'd put up a ton of points. Combine that with a defensive front led by maybe the best college football player in the nation in Suh..... I think you get the point here.

The Big 12 North has some good individual players, despite not having the strongest teams in the conference.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Yes, they are back on track, and yes they will be somewhat dominant down the stretch. They've only lost 3 games by 5 points combined! If they had scheduled only cupcakes, they'd be where Oklahoma State is right now in terms of record and perception. They will win out and go to the Cotton bowl. They're the 2nd best team in the conference with maybe the best defense in the conference.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

All they showed us is that these teams are inconsistent. I don't know what happened with K-State and A&M at all, but I think Tech slept on A&M after seeing that A&M got rolled, and they got bit. I think the Tech team that showed up against K-State was more indicitive on what kind of team they are. I also don't think Tech is as good when Taylor Potts is playing for them.

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

It seems like it takes almost half the season for McCoy to really get going. It seems like they start slower, although I've never really researched it. I think the game against Oklahoma State will play similar to the Texas-Texas Tech game. It will be somewhat close, but Texas will win by 2 scores and pull ahead late.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Without a doubt, the hardest team to do it. I just showed how 5 teams in the North could go 4-4. Who's to pick the better team, and how do we relate the North to the South? Here's my best shot at it, assuming the teams would play this week:

Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Kansas
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado
Baylor

Week 7 Wrap-Up

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:53:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud (4) celebrates with teammates Derrick Catlett, center, Alex Alvarez (77) and Jake Williams, right, after Cetlett's touchdown reception during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Final - 10.17.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Baylor Bears	3	0	0	7	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	0	14	10	0	24

Complete Coverage >

We done did it! ISU finally won a Big 12 game, the first in nearly two years (1-11 last twelve Big 12 games now). Below are some thoughts on the game:

What I liked:

We won. I know it was a depleted Baylor team, but we won a conference game. Hopefully we can pick up a couple more, to shut up all the a-holes that predicted we'd win 1-2 games, and go o-fer in the conference again. We picked up our first Big 12 win since our win over Colorado on November 10th, 2007. We are just past the halfway point of the season with a winning record. I'd love to see if this team could find a way to get to 6 wins this year.
ISU rushed for 240 yards. It started off kind of slow, but between A-Rob, Tiller (yes, Tiller), Arnaud, and Schwartz, ISU picked up a lot of rushing yards this game.
Winning the turnover battle. ISU was +2, as we picked off Baylor 3 times, and got picked once.
Tiller's running ability -- outside the tackles. The guy is quick. I saw it in the Spring Game, and we saw more of it last night. Inside the tackles, not so much. The guy is skinnier than most of our WRs. He does not have the ability to fight for that extra yard or two, simply because just isn't as strong.
Baylor's sense of urgency on the first possession in the second half. So Baylor is down 14-3 with 13 or 14 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, on their own 32 with a 4th and 1 situation. Easy call here, punt the ball right? NOPE! Instead, Baylor goes for it on 4th and 1, doesn't make it, and it sets up an ISU field goal. Just way too early to be thinking of going for it, but I guess it says a lot about what the coach thought of his team's chances of getting back in the game.

What I didn't like:

Getting off to a slow start. The first quarter was pretty unimpressive from both sides. Just bad offensive execution, and some bad defense as well. Often times the first handful of plays offensivley are scripted and/or they are plays that you worked on a lot that week. It'd be nice to get an opening TD or something like that.
Bad tackling. Baylor had to abandon the run due to getting down early, but their RBs picked up many extra yards (especially in that first quarter) due to mistackling. The same goes for their WRs on the short passes. I think we did a better job of it as the game went on, but how we started could have really hurted us if we were playing a better offense.
Arnaud's interception. Not trying to throw him under the bus or anything like that, but when you have the chance to go up 14-3, and you throw a pick in the end zone, giving the other team enough time to go down the field to make it a 1 possession game, it's not good. Fortunatley, Baylor's offense fizzled about midfield, but it could've been 14-10, or 14-6, with Baylor getting the ball first in the third quarter. A better team, may have hurt us more off the turnover.
Baylor's weak ass offense. Honestly, this was the weakest shit I've seen from a Big 12 team in a while. The story of their offense was screen passes. At first they worked as ISU had issues with tackling, but eventually the effectiveness was lost. Maybe part of this was due to their QB's lack of ability, but there are plenty of holes in the secondary down the field. Now, I like short passes, but you have to mix it up with taking some shots down the field to keep the defense honest. As an ISU fan, I liked this, but I think there was some poor play calling with Baylor.
Missing too many field goals. The first one, I won't hold against Mahoney as it was a 50 yarder, which I think is in his range but one can't look at is as an automatic in college football at all. The other two were from 35 and 30 yards away, however. I think on all of these they were too wide. I know nothing about kicking, but I hope he figures it out. Against better teams, we may need those 6 to 9 points we left on the field.
Lack of QB pressure on defense. ISU had one official sack, and it was a coverage sack as their QB had a lot of time to throw, but simply no one was open. There were some other times they brought down the QB, but in the stats, it just goes as a run for negative yards. Still, those were mostly due to the QB having 4+ seconds to throw, couldn't find anyone, ran around and got brought down. Against KU we saw what giving too much time to a QB can do to you. We did have 5 QB hurries vs. 0 last week against KU, so perhaps we are improving, but it isn't as much as I'd like to see. As long was the opposing QB has plenty of time, the good ones will hurt us. Fortunatley, Szymanski is not a good QB.

I am happy that the team won, but this was a game that could have been a blowout had the execution been better. We need to play better than this if we are going to beat a Nebraska.

Notes:

Alexander Robinson appeared to have reinjured himself yet again, and it didn't look good. Getting all the way back from an injured groin takes a good amount of rest. I just hope he's alright.
Austen Arnaud left the game in the third quarter due to a bruised throwing hand. This is why Tiller played for almost the entire second half.

Props:

After suspending for a week, I've decided to bring my props back:

Marquis Hamilton - 9 catches for 97 yards, including hanging on to a big hit from Jordan Lake coming across the middle. In my pregame writeup, I talked about our receivers holding onto the ball coming across the middle because Lake is the kind of hard-hitting safety that will make you pay.
Josh Lenz - 7 catches for 43 yards, with no drops either. I'm just impressed that this guy is finding his way on the field and making plays. Before the season had started, I thought no way he'd see some time, but he has, and done pretty well.
Derrick Catlett - 5 catches for 52 yards, and 1 TD
Jerome Tiller - 7 of 8 passing for 48 yards, and 10 rushes for 74 yards and 1 TD. Took advantage of having the chance to play for almost half of the game. Still has a lot to work on, but we didn't lose anything by having Tiller out there, which is great to have in a backup.
Fred Garrin - 7 tackles, 2 interceptions. Yes the balls were thrown right to him, but I see many linebackers dropping these balls. Both of these were as Baylor was starting to get into Cyclone territory and were drive-killers for them.
Leonard Johnson - 5 tackles (one for loss), 1 interception. Made a nice jumping catch near the sideline on a deep pass to prevent the big play from Baylor.

Now the attention turns to Nebraska next week. Nebraska is the better team in my mind, but who knows what will happen? The Big 12 just saw Colorado beat KU (and ISU almost beat KU), and K-State put up 62 points against aTm.

KICKING THE TIRES: Iowa State University

BracketCat — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:00:21 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (2-2) VS. Iowa State Cyclones (3-1)

"Farmageddon"
Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Mo.
Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009 - 2:00 PM CST

FCS Central | Cox Cable 22

Sorry for being 12 hours late, but I've simply been off-track all week. I took a vacation Monday to have a three-day weekend up in Manhattan and KC, and I've been playing catchup so much at work since then that I just haven't had time to work ahead on this like I usually do.

At any rate, thanks to Panjandrum, the Ag-pocalypse needs no more buildup or hype, but if it's statistics you're seeking, click the jump.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (55 of 95, 684 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (19 catches, 223 yards)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (91 carries, 433 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Courtney Herndon (3 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 PBU)

ISU

Passing
Austen Arnaud (50 of 91, 625 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Marquis Hamilton (15 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD)

Rushing
Alexander Robinson (79 carries, 453 yards, 3 TD)

Wild Card
Jesse Smith (37 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
ISU (21) > K-State (32 | +17)

Passing Offense
K-State (91 | -4) > ISU (94)

Total Offense
ISU (51) > K-State (55 | +20)

Scoring Offense
ISU (74) > K-State (87 | +20)

Rushing Defense
K-State (17 | +45) > ISU (85)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (20 | -6) > ISU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (10 | +19) > ISU (70)

Scoring Defense
K-State (26 | +17) > ISU (36)

Net Punting
ISU (5) > K-State (106 | -6)

Punt Returns
K-State (36 | +9) > ISU (86)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +43) > ISU (66)

Turnover Margin
K-State (56 | +7) > ISU (81)

Pass Defense
K-State (13 | +9) > ISU (50)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (87 | +11) > ISU (97)

Analysis

After comparing our relative statistics, I feel a lot better about this match-up. Iowa State has a marginally better offense than us, but not nearly better enough to offset our commanding advantage on defense and in the return game. Austen Arnaud basically is Carson Coffman with a few more touchdown passes, while Alexander Robinson is like a watered-down version of Daniel Thomas. Helping our cause is the loss of the Cyclones' second-leading receiver, Darius Reynolds, to a knee injury; although you never like to see a guy get hurt, I'll take anything we can get in our quest for what probably will be a rare Big 12 victory.

In addition to leading tackler Jesse Smith, keep an eye out for David Sims, who is tied with Tysyn Hartman for the league lead with three interceptions. Hopefully, Coffman keeps an eye out for him, as well. Iowa State's major edge defensively is that they have quite a few more tackles for loss than we do, indicating they actually have a legitimate defensive line. With any luck, this is our last week without Brandon Harold, so we'll just have to muddle through as best we can.

On a side note, what the hell is going on with our net punting? Not only has Ryan Doerr been a MAJOR disappointment as a place holder, but his leg hasn't been that impressive, either. Thank God he's only a redshirt freshman and has some time to improve, but it'd be nice if that improvement began this season. The only reason he's not the most appalling player on special teams is because of the chokejob artist formerly known as Josh Cherry.

And on that note, I'm going to go ahead and predict a loss in an attempt to reverse-jinx us into a win. Let's say we line up for the game-winning field goal, which Cherry shanks wide right for a crushing defeat. One-point loss? Point plankn.

Prediction: Iowa State 31, Kansas State 30
(One of the ISU touchdowns is a pick-six from Coffman to Sims.)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Antonio Felder, Raphael Guidry
LB: John Houlik, Alex Hrebec
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

I'm not sure why I'm so pessimistic on the Big 12 in the major intersectional match-ups... just don't have a good feeling about either one. A&M hasn't proven crap yet and the last time we saw Landry Jones against an opponent with a pulse, he stunk it up. And just like everyone jumped on Miami's bandwagon way too fast, they jumped OFF of it way too fast, too.

New Mexico at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 46, Lobos 19

Kent State at Baylor
Bears 42, Golden Flashes 25

Arkansas at Texas A&M (Arlington) (ESPN2)
Razorbacks 29, Aggies 27

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami (ABC)
Hurricanes 15, Sooners 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Week 1 Postgame: Iowa State 34, North Dakota State 17

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 06:01:33 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads, center, celebrates with his father, Cecil, after his team defeated North Dakota State 34-17 in an NCAA college football game Thursday, Sept. 3, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Final - 9.3.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
North Dakota St. Bison	0	10	7	0	17
Iowa St. Cyclones	7	10	17	7	34

Complete Coverage >

Iowa State came out with an opening week win in the first game of the Paul Rhoads era. Not a surprising result. The Bison would have had to play a perfect game to beat ISU, and of course they didn't, because perfect games do not come often. The Bison could have had another TD if their QB (Mertens) didn't fumble in the end zone, but the defense made a play, and it's part of the game. I will give the Bison some credit, as the game was closer for longer than I thought.

Here are my takeaways from the game:

The Good:

The concept of the no-huddle offense. I really liked it. There's less downtime between plays, plus A-Rob is so solid you can go from a 4 WR to 5 WR set without making any substitutions. The playcalling was pretty vanilla (save for a WR-reverse pass by Reynolds that was incomplete), which was expected. I would hope to see ISU open up the playbook more as they get more comfortable and face tougher opponents.
The Iowa State offense has some play makers. Marquis Hamilton looked good, and Darius Reynolds is definitely a guy who can turn into a big play threat once he gets more comfortable in the system. I liked the way Reynolds was utilized. He is the kind of guy you do bubble screens and short slants to, as he can make things happen in the open field.
The Iowa State secondary. No one got burned in coverage and the secondary was able to keep passes in front of them.
Grant Mahoney nailing 2/3 FGs including a 50 yarder. He missed a 57 yard attempt going into the half, but you can't hold that against a college kicker.

More Analysis on the next page!

Areas of Improvement:

Overall there are a lot of areas the team can improve. No football team is ever content with how they are during Week 1, and the well coached teams continue to improve all year. Naturally this list will be a bit longer to start the season, but as the season continues, hopefully this list gets smaller, and maybe some will turn into strengths

Getting the offense on the same page. Handfuls of dropped passes as WRs started looking up field instead of getting the sure catch. There were a couple of miscues as Arnaud's fumble was on a play where he thought he should hand it off to A-Rob (and A-Rob apparently thought it was a QB draw). There was some miscommunication at times between Arnaud and the WRs as well. These are things that can be fixed as the players get comfortable in the system. It's hard to simulate game-speed in practice, and everything happens a little quicker with the adrenaline rush.
The Defensive Line. They got pushed around quite a bit on running plays, as NDSU averaged 5.5 yards per rush. ISU also had a hard time getting pressure on Mertens. There were many times where Mertens had a lot of time to throw, and the handful of times they got in the backfield, they took some bad routes in trying to sack him. I am very concerned with how ISU will do next week against a more talented offensive line, as Iowa looks to be very solid (as in potentially the top of the Big 10 good).
The Linebacking Corps. They were slow in pass coverage, had some mistackles, and didn't stay home on the end-arounds. Paschall is a good running back without a doubt, but there were some weak arm tackles that allow for the 62 yard run. In general, there was bad tackling with this unit (and the secondary on running plays) as they were trying to strip the ball too much instead of getting the sure-tackle (typically resulting in a couple of extra yards). Don't get me wrong; turnovers are huge, but you can't make a 3 yard run a 6 yard run because you were going for the strip instead of bringing the guy down.

Props To:

Austen Arnaud - 16/28 for 227 yards and 2 TDs. Also had 17 carries for 78 carries and 1 TD. The completion percentage would have been higher if not for a handful of drops, and considering it's his first game in his 3rd offensive system, I think he did a good job minimizing damage.
Marquis Hamilton - 4 catches for 97 yards and 2 TDs. He looked pretty quick for a possession receiver. Either he's improved his speed, or the NDSU secondary was slow (or both), as on both TDs he simply outran guys (the first one he was open on a slant because of a NDSU linebacker blitz, but he out ran the safeties for the TD).
Darius Reynolds - 6 catches for 56 yards, should've had a TD pass as well. Overall a solid debut. There were a couple of drops but he'll figure it out.
Alexander Robinson - 83 rushing yards on 16 carries including a TD. Also 3 catches for 36 yards
David Sims - 3 kick returns for 111 yards (37 yard average), including a 60 yard return that could've gone all the way had the kicker been blocked. He also had 1 INT on defense.
Grant Mahoney - 2/3 on field goals including a 50 yarder
Mike Bradnter - 49.3 punt average on 4 punts
Pat Paschall (RB, NDSU) - 21 carries for 146 yards (including a 62 yard run), and 1 TD.
NDSU offensive line. Mertens had good protection for most of the game, and the Bison were able to average 5.5 yards/carry which is very solid.

It's nice to see the Cyclones win, but it wasn't as convincing as some would've liked. On offense, ISU stopped themselves by miscues as opposed to NDSU stopping them. On defense, it's going to be another long year I feel. If they allow 5.5 yards/carry against more challenging opponents, a lot of points will go on the board for our opponents.

Next week is the Hawks. Clone Chronicles will take a little break over the holiday weekend, but will be back on Sunday night, and in full swing on Tuesday.

Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day weekend all!

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Who am I? What am I doing here?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Yeah, yeah...I'm a day late with this. I'm not your nerd jester! We are down to our second-to-last regular season opponent of the year, the Cyclones of Iowa State. Once again, a new era starts in Ames. Is Paul Rhoads the man for the job?

2008

Record: 2-10 (0-8 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 177.7 (104th in the country, 12th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 304-430 (-126)
Conference Scoring Margin: 176-334 (-158)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #107 Kent State, 1-AA South Dakota State
Losses: #10 Missouri, #13 Iowa, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #88 UNLV, #98 Texas A&M

This is going to be the backhanded compliment of all backhanded compliments, but...for a 2-10 team that didn't beat a team ranked higher than 107th, Iowa State really wasn't that bad. They managed a scoring margin of just -126 points, which certainly isn't good at all, but again...for a 2-10 team, that could have been worse. That's what happens when you lose by 2 to Kansas, 3 to UNLV, 4 to Colorado, 8 to Kansas State, 12 to Iowa, and 14 to Texas A&M. If ISU had just figured out a way to be five points better in 2008, they would have been a much more respectable 5-7...

...and Gene Chizik would have left anyway. In the end, results from 2008 don't matter because Iowa State is once again starting from scratch in 2009. They've got some experience here and there, but a) probably not enough, and b) we don't really know what Paul Rhoads is going to do with that talent until the season starts.

Coaching

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads
Record at Iowa State: UNDEFEATED!!!!

Paul Rhoads has been a pretty stellar defensive coordinator for many years at the college level, but I think when he was being considered for the job, his most important qualification was what comes at the beginning of the second paragraph of his bio (PDF): "Born in Nevada, Iowa, just 10 minutes from Jack Trice Stadium..."

For all of Rhoads' accomplishments, the biggest draw for hiring him to coach the Cyclones had to have been simply that he's an Iowa boy (alma mater: Missouri Western), he likely considers ISU much more of a destination job than the last guy they hired, and he won't be looking for a bigger lilypad the moment the opportunity arises. He will build Iowa State for the long haul, and I think as long as he produces any sort of results whatsoever, he will be given a lot of rope.

An assistant to Dan McCarney when McCarney first came to Ames, Rhoads pretty quickly worked his way up the coaching ladder. He was LB/DB coach for five seasons in Ames before Walt Harris hired him as Defensive Coordinator for the Pitt Panthers. In eight seasons with Pittsburgh, he put together consistently solid defenses and was maintained when Walt Harris left for Stanford and the Wannstache took over. Pitt's defenses forced a ton of turnovers and always ranked pretty highly in terms of yardage allowed. In 2008, he moved south, replacing Will Muschamp as Auburn's Defensive Coordinator. Auburn's basic stats slipped under Rhoads, but everybody pretty much agreed that they were asked to do far too much with an incompetent Tiger offense putting them in sub-optimal situations.

Like Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Mike Sherman, Rhoads assumes a Big 12 head coaching position with a strong defensive background. How will that translate to life in the Big 12 North? How much will recruiting need to improve for the Cyclones to move into the North's upper echelon (which, let's face it, isn't that "upper" at the moment)? Can it happen?

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 88.1 (#101)
Success Rate+: 90.3 (#100)
PPP+: 86.1 (#101)

Standard Downs S&P+: 92.1 (#91)
Passing Downs S&P+: 92.8 (#87)

Redzone S&P+: 82.3 (#112)

Q1 S&P+: 92.6 (#82)
Q2 S&P+: 89.4 (#99)
Q3 S&P+: 78.2 (#114)
Q4 S&P+: 110.9 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#82)
2nd Down S&P+: 93.9 (#84)
3rd Down S&P+: 89.4 (#90)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 88.4 (#97)
Rushing SR+: 90.7 (#99)
Rushing PPP+: 86.8 (#94)

Standard Downs: 89.7 (#96)
Passing Downs: 95.2 (#80)

Redzone: 80.2 (#112)

Line Yards+: 90.5 (#102)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 87.5 (#94)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#90)
Passing PPP+: 85.0 (#93)

Standard Downs: 94.4 (#79)
Passing Downs: 90.1 (#88)

Redzone: 89.1 (#86)

Sack Rate+: 105.5 (#56)

Aside from their 3rd-to-4th quarter splits, these numbers are pretty consistently terrible. It's important to remember the strength-of-schedule component to the "+" number here. Iowa State put respectable offensive numbers--25.3 points per game, 386.8 total yards, 5.5 yards per play--but these came against defenses that were giving up 400 or 500 yards to everybody else (plus, a lot of the yards came at the end of blowouts). In the end, the 387 yards per game were far below what would have been expected against the defenses Iowa State faced, and it damaged their rankings.

Other thoughts:

Aside from their strong fourth-quarter rankings (which, as we've seen with other teams, can be skewed if you're blowing other teams out, or getting blown out, and your starters aren't playing much in the fourth quarter), ISU's biggest strength was in pass blocking, where they were above average with a 105.5 Sack Rate+, 56th in the country. Beyond that? Not much to be happy about...or, for an opponent, not much to be scared of.
ISU was consistently below-average in both the running and passing games, ranking 97th and 94th, respectively. They ranked between 90th and 101st in most Success Rate+ and PPP+ breakouts. They were bad across the board.

Quarterback

The stats don't like Austen Arnaud, but he's got at least a decent amount of upside.

2008 Unit Ranking: #92 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Austen Arnaud (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Jerome Tiller (6'4, 185, RSFr.)
Brett Bueker (6'4, 213, RSFr.)

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

That said, if Arnaud has strong receiving talent around him, he's a good enough passer to get them the ball and let them make him look good. He does not, in fact, have that talent around him.

Behind Arnaud are a couple of big (well, tall...at 6'4, 185, Jerome Tiller is far from big--Mizzou WR L'Damian Washington is supposedly 6'4, 180, and Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond can't help but mention how skinny he is every time they talk about him) youngsters fighting it out to become his successor in 2011. Tiller was a decent-looking 3-star recruit in high school and is likely being groomed for the job.

Running Backs

If Alexander Robinson always played like he did in 2007 against Missouri, he'd be an all-conference back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #90 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alexander Robinson (5'10, 184, Jr.)
Bo Williams (6'0, 217, So.)
Jeremiah Schwartz (5'11, 238, RSFr.)

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in AdjustedPOE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Of course, average is better than poor, which is what Austen Arnaud's pass targets were, so Robinson officially qualifies as a bright spot from 2008. He will be joined in the backfield by the intriguing Bo Williams, a former 4-star recruit who originally signed with Florida before transferring. Williams and Robinson running behind a reasonably experienced offensive line suggests that Iowa State's running game should improve a decent amount in 2009. But when your RBs are ranked 90th in the country, improvement only takes them to what...75th? 70th? Still some work to do here, but clearly Williams has some potential.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Darius Darks: possibly ISU's most potentially explosive threat, "potentially" being the key word.

2008 Unit Ranking: #96 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Darius Darks (6'1, 175, So.)
Sedrick Johnson (6'4, 199, So.)
Marquis Hamilton (6'4, 228, Sr.)
Houston Jones (6'1, 193, Sr.)
Jason Carlson (6'0, 205, So.)
Lonzie Range (6'3, 183, RSFr.)
Darius Reynolds (6'3, 190, Jr.)
Joshua Bellamy (6'1, 200, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Derrick Catlett (6'4, 252, Sr.)
Collin Franklin (6'6, 248, Jr.)
Carter Bykowski (6'8, 249, So.)

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

Marquis Hamilton and Houston Jones are what they are--if this were baseball, I'd be calling them innings eaters (the Josh Fogg variety more than the Esteban-Loaiza-in-his-prime variety) and leave it at that--so really, if this is going to become a truly dangerous unit, newcomers will need to play a role. One of two JUCO transfers, either Darius Reynolds or Joshua Bellamy, will need to turn out pretty capable, or they'll need to luck out with another ready-to-rumble true freshman or two (main candidates: Josh Lenz, Donnie Jennert, or Keith Blanton). Reynolds, a 4-star JUCO recruit from Reedley CC in California, has the best resume of the bunch, but we'll see.

UPDATE, 1:57pm - I completely forgot to talk about the tight ends.

As down as I am about a few of Iowa State's units, I actually like their tight ends a decent amount. Even though Derek Catlett only managed 20 catches for 220 yards last year, he finished the year with eight catches and 121 yards in the final two games, against Missouri and Kansas State. I realize I'm probably high on him simply because he looked really good against Mizzou and was non-existent to me the rest of the year, but it is what it is. Meanwhile, Collin Franklin is pretty decent as well. Really, if we look at the two players as one entity, they're impressive--35 catches, 478 yards, 2 TDs. They're not all-conference caliber players, but at the very least one of them could emerge as one of the better North tight ends behind Mike McNeill (and hopefully Andrew Jones).

Offensive Line

Big dude.

2008 Unit Ranking: #89 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Reggie Stephens (6'4, 338, Sr.)
G Ben Lamaak (6'5, 320, Jr.)
C Alex Alvarez (6'2, 294, Jr.)
T Hayworth Hicks (6'3, 354, Jr.)
T Kelechi Osmele (6'5, 338, So.)
T Matt Hulbert (6'7, 299, Jr.)
G Joseph Klerekoper (6'5, 305, So.)
G Trey Baysinger (6'6, 317, So.)
T Zack Spears (6'6, 306, So.)
C Ethan Tuftee (6'4, 294, Fr.)

When I was initially ranking offensive lines, I didn't take into account strength of schedule enough. Now that I have a full-fledged SackRate+ number to call on...yeah, Iowa State doesn't look that great. One thing they do have going for them, however, is experience. Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.

Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Then again, a variation of this huge line ranked 102nd in LineYards+ last year, so maybe not.

Summary

If you're looking at specific moments, you can talk yourself into Iowa State a bit. Austen Arnaud went 27-for-45 for 268 yards and 3 TDs against a pretty good Kansas secondary in 2008. Alexander Robinson put up 87 yards in just 11 carries against Nebraska. Darius Darks had seven catches for 113 yards against Oklahoma State. Bo Williams signed with Florida...Florida! But you need more than moments to keep up in the Big 12, and it's still hard to rank given Iowa State units too highly, even within just the Big 12 North. Arnaud's not as good as Todd Reesing, and he's probably not as good as (or at least no better than) Blaine Gabbert or Zac Lee. Robinson's certainly not as good or as proven as Derrick Washington or Roy Helu, Jr. Darks and Sedrick Johnson are not going to remind anybody of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier...or even Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. The line has experience and potential...but Missouri's offensive line has experience, potential, and actual results.

I love nothing more than pointing out "These guys aren't as good/bad as you think" as much as humanly possible. But while Iowa State certainly has the potential to put things together and win a couple of Big 12 games if things go right, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they just don't have enough to compete week in and week out. It will be interesting to see how Paul Rhoads both a) develops what he's got and b) figures out how to attract more talent to Ames, but I think expectations are low for Year #1 for very good reason. Prove me wrong, 'Clones.

Best of 2008 #9: The Iowa State Second Half

irish1611 — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:18:08 -0000

VS.

The game was dubbed the "basement battle": two teams with losing records struggling to find an identity. The Buffs had seven rather highly touted recruits in town: 3*/4* LB Michael Clay, 4* DT Latu Heimuli, 3* OT/DE Nik Abele, 4* DE Nick Kasa, 4* Bradley McDougald, DB Deji Olatoye and 4* WR Diante Jackson. Saying it was a big recruiting weekend would be an understatement. Most of these guys would be major gets on the national scene. CU had just come off a bad loss against Texas A&M at Kyle Field for what should have been win number five in the all important race to six. The Iowa State game was supposed to be the clinching game for a bowl bid. That got me and a ton of Buff fans worried about the motivation this team would have for Iowa State with seemingly two losses remaining on the schedule (Oklahoma State and Nebraska). Many were wondering what would come that Monday morning if Colorado actually lost to Iowa State, all but guaranteeing a four-win season. The difference between five and four isn't huge at first glance but losing to Iowa State and A&M back to back and only winning one conference game in the down Big 12 North would have been devastating. You thought recruiting was hard now, think about if we lost to Iowa State? Surely WR Diante Jackson wouldn't be considering us now, Olatoye may not have committed, McDougald wouldn't be a high interest guy and you always have to wonder about a guy like Abele who is getting big interest from a lot of programs right now.

for more on the 9th best moment of 2008, see after the jump...

It was another momumental day for one RB Darrell Scott. It was his first start as a Buff. Something we thought we would have seen a few more times before the 10th game of the season. True freshman QB Tyler Hansen also got his first start. Both debuts did not start well. It was a tale of two halfs. The offense, to nobody's surprise, was awful. Scoring zero points and went into halftime down 10 - 0. QB Tyler Hansen only completed 4 - 12 passes for 48 yards and an interception. The running game never really got going. And the special teams, oh the special teams. They were so bad that day that it sent me into a tizzy. The rap sheet looked like this:

-2 missed chip shot field goals in the first half
-1 blocked extra point that was a looming problem when looking at the scoreboard for most of the game
-2 consecutive roughing the punter penalties
-1 kickoff out of bounds in the fourth quarter
-2 kickoff returns to the 35 yard line +, especially the one on Iowa State's last drive that gave them a short field.

I sit in section 104 at Folsom field which is literally right next to the visiting section. Nothing was more embarrassing than to hear Iowa State "fan" chuckling and saying "I can't believe we are winning." You could tell hardly any of them followed the team but they were transplants and decided to go to the game expecting to get beat of course. But then something happened for CU: Urgency and QB Cody Hawkins.

Now we have been hearing about this spread offense since spring ball. The way the Buffs run it, we look like a team that just doesn't want to walk back to the huddle but will take the maximum amount of time off the clock. We watch Oklahoma and it is like a fast break offense. But urgency clicked in and the Buffs, for the first time, ran the fast break spread offense to perfection. QB Cody Hawkins administrated the offense extremely well. And you know what happened to that Iowa State defensive line? They got tired, really tired and it was easy pickins in the fourth quarter. Darrell Scott got rolling on the first drive of the second half including a rumbling 37 yard carry down the sideline that next year he will take the house. He finished with 19 carries and 87 yards; a career high for the highly touted freshman from California. QB Cody Hawkins looked, well, like he did in 2007 at times, certainly nothing we have seen in 2008. He finised 20 of 29 for 226 yards and 4 touchdowns. Not many professional quarterbacks have a half like that especially when spotting the opposition 10 points. Hawkins led scoring drives of 81, 80 and 84 yards. The Buffs had just five drives of 80 yards or more the whole season prior to that Saturday. The CU offense totaled over 400 yards for the only time this season and would go on to score 28 points in one half which was the most totaled in one half all year. The offensive explosion was enough to make this one of the best moments of 2008.

But the real reason to celebrate was the excitement in Folsom Field on the last drive of the game. Because this happened:

Iowa State at 1:30
1st and 10 at ISU 39	Austen Arnaud pass complete to Houston Jones for 11 yards to the 50 yard line
1st and 10 at COL 50	Austen Arnaud pass complete to Marquis Hamilton for 9 yards to the Colo 41
2nd and 1 at COL 41	Alexander Robinson rush for 27 yards to the Colo 14
1st and 10 at COL 14	Timeout Iowa State, clock 00:40.
1st and 10 at COL 14	Austen Arnaud pass complete to Houston Jones for 8 yards to the Colo 6
2nd and 2 at COL 6	Austen Arnaud rush for 1 yard to the Colo 5
3rd and 1 at COL 5	Timeout Iowa State, clock 00:14.
3rd and 1 at COL 5	Austen Arnaud pass incomplete to R.J. Sumrall.
4th and 1 at COL 5	Austen Arnaud pass complete to Darius Darks for 4 yards to the Colo 1 for a 1ST down.
1st and Goal at COL 1	Team pass incomplete.
2nd and Goal at COL 1	Alexander Robinson rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 3
	End of 4th Quarter

After poor kickoff coverage and a 27 yard run, the Cyclones were down to the 14 yard line with plenty of time to score. But poor play calling, bad clock management and a big tackle by DE Maurice Lucas gave the home team a chance at the end of the game. Iowa State and their big 6'4" quarterback in QB Austen Arnaud were at the one yard line with one last chance to win. If you asked the fans at Folsom Field, half of them probably couldn't bare to watch. That scary thought came back into play: what if the Buffs actually lost to Iowa State? Luckily, Iowa State showed why they are a two win team. Inside the one yard line, Iowa State runs wide instead of straight at a "less than powerful" defensive line. By wide run, I mean an option to the short side of the field that was gobbled up by CB Jimmy Smith and S Daniel Dykes. It was one of the more bizarre halfs of football I have ever seen. The Buffs have had two wins in come from behind fashion. The other one was against another weaker opponent in FBS school Eastern Washington. The Buffs won that day on a CB Cha'pelle Brown interception returned for a touchdown.

Losing to Iowa State would have been disastrous to this program. Fortunately for the Buffs, it turned out to be one of the more entertaining games of the year. To relive the moment, go here to BuffTV and search for the Iowa State game.

Box Score of the Iowa State Game
The Ralphie Report's Post-Game Review

Best of 2008 List
10) The Victory Against CSU at Mile High
9) The Iowa State Second Half

Poll

Do you think Cody Hawkins can be the quarterback he was in the second half of the Iowa State game more consistently next year?

Yes, he had a banged up offensive line and a bunch of slow WR's around him.

20 votes

No, he is too physically limited. Great kid but we would be better suited with Hansen, Ballenger or Evans.

20 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed