SB Nation - Derrick Catlett

Mizzou-Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

With basketball and the Mark Mangino Soap Opera for Dudes, it's been easy to become distracted from the fact that Mizzou has another home football game to play! I'm figuring Mizzou hasn't forgotten...at least I hope they haven't, as ISU's good enough to pop you in the chin if you let your guard down. Just ask Nebraska.

With his postgame celebration after Iowa State's win over Nebraska, I think it's safe to say that Paul Rhoads became most Big 12 North fans' second-favorite coach (or in the case of Colorado fans, maybe even their favorite). He is a passionate guy who, as we talked about this summer, seems to consider Iowa State a destination job, and in Year One of the Rhoads tenure, Iowa State is 6-5 and staring a bowl bid in the face. While their rankings below (and the fact that they've only beaten one team with a winning record, and it took eight turnovers to do so) suggest a relatively easy win for Missouri, it is certainly worth noting that they beat both Baylor and Nebraska this year, something Mizzou was unable to do. If Missouri plays well, as well as they did against Kansas State last week, they will win this game. But if they don't, Iowa State has proven quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunities given them and sneaking out with a seventh win.

Offense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

If fans have seen any one game Iowa State has played this year, it was probably the Nebraska game, which would give you the impression of a team light on offense but heavy on defensive playmakers. For the season, that really has not been the case. Statistically, they are much more successful on offense than defense; the key for the Cyclones, in both wins and losses, has been turnovers.

Iowa State's 6 wins: 22 takeaways (3.7 per game), 9 turnovers (1.5 per game), +13 turnover margin
Iowa State's 5 losses: 7 takeaways (1.4 per game), 13 turnovers (2.6 per game), -6 turnover margin

If stripping the ball is a skill, Paul Rhoads has taught it well. ISU has forced 29 fumbles this year (2.6 per game), almost three per game, and it has served them well against careless teams. Missouri has done well in only fumbling 14 times on the season (1.4 per game), but caution will be infinitely better than stretching for the extra yard on Saturday. Even taking the Nebraska game (and its +8 margin) out of the equation, ISU has still been good at taking the ball away, and it has still mattered a ridiculous amount toward whether they win or lose.

Anyway, to the offense. The numbers are, for the most part, pretty decent, though the after-the-jump conference figures tell you an interesting story.

Iowa State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	ISU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	107.3 (51)	105.1 (47)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	109.6 (31)	100.5 (60)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	105.9 (64)	111.8 (43)

Rushing S&P+	106.5 (52)	113.5 (38)
Passing S&P+	109.4 (49)	97.2 (63)

Standard Downs S&P+	106.5 (51)	115.4 (24)
Passing Downs S&P+	103.9 (59)	96.7 (69)

Red Zone S&P+	115.8 (39)	117.4 (31)

Q1 S&P+	96.3 (84)	92.2 (80)
Q2 S&P+	101.1 (65)	132.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+	130.2 (16)	105.5 (51)
Q4 S&P+	104.7 (63)	114.3 (33)

1st Down S&P+	110.8 (39)	109.6 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	100.7 (72)	105.4 (52)
3rd Down S&P+	103.2 (70)	110.2 (43)

Line Yards+	113.9 (23)	102.3 (52)
Close Sack Rate+	232.2 (6)	82.1 (88)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	125.8 (44) / 200.9 (18)	114.8 (44) / 104.4 (58)

I listed 19 categories above, and in half of them, ISU ranks between 30th and 60th. That's pretty much the definition of "decent." They are outstanding on the offensive line -- by far the strongest in the North division according to these statistics -- but their skill position players are, well, somewhat lacking in skill. They are, however, extremely efficient, which is a nice quality to have against a Missouri defense that sacrifices efficiency for limited big plays. I will be interested to see how much Missouri adjusts its defensive gameplan to account for short passes, though I personally doubt they will tinker much. I'm pretty sure they will be perfectly content with doing what they did against K-State: allowing all the yardage they want between the 30s, then cracking down in the red zone.

These numbers, however, do not tell the entire story. For that, we need to go to their "Non-Conference vs Conference Play" numbers after the jump.

ISU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	107.3	94.1
Close SR+	106.2	103.9
Close PPP+	106.5	81.0

Rushing S&P+	115.6	98.5
Passing S&P+	97.1	94.4

Standard Downs S&P+	112.2	84.9
Passing Downs S&P+	95.5	97.2

Red Zone S&P+	105.4	95.0

Q1 S&P+	98.7	84.7
Q2 S&P+	107.1	95.8
Q3 S&P+	107.6	111.0
Q4 S&P+	100.6	97.2

Note: you'll see that some of the conference/non-conference averages do not really match up with the season averages above. This is because I was looking at per-game data for the conference breakout, and one really good or really bad game can skew those numbers pretty considerably. For the full-season data, I look at every play (a sample size of, well a lot of plays) instead of "+" scores from a sample size of ten games. If this disclaimer didn't make any sense, don't worry about it. It's not that important, and I'm not really feeling like an A+ wordsmith at the moment.

Here is a game-by-game look at Iowa State's scoring progression this year: 34, 3, 34, 31, 23, 36, 24, 9, 10, 8, 17. After averaging 26.4 points over their first six games, the Cyclones have managed just 11.0 points in their last four. Thanks in part to turnovers and improving defense, they have gone 2-2 in that span, but this does start to take the look of a "Score 24 points and you'll probably win" game. We know that Baylor wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before they came to Faurot Field two weeks ago, but the matchups in this game are not the same. Baylor doesn't have a lot of skill at wide receiver, but they have pure speed, and they burned Missouri with it. Iowa State quite frankly just doesn't have that speed. Their offense resembles K-State's without Brandon Banks--solid, strong running back, good tight end play (not that KSU showed any of that against Mizzou), and a big bunch of possession receivers.

The passing game has remained rather consistent throughout the season, but consistency isn't a great trait when you're just consistently being slightly below average. The running game, meanwhile, has regressed considerably, from rock solid in September to distinctly average in October and November. Consequently, they have remained about the same on passing downs, but they have fallen off on standard downs, which has resulted in a lot more passing downs.

When ISU Has the Ball...
ISU Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
ISU Passing	Advantage: Push
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	later in halves

Mizzou Advantages:

Points Per Play+ (explosiveness)
Rushing
Standard Downs
Red Zone (slightly)
Q2, Q4
2nd, 3rd Down

And for ISU...

Success Rate+ (efficiency)
Passing (slightly)
Q3
Line Yards, Sack Rates

It doesn't speak kindly of Alexander Robinson that Iowa State's run blocking numbers are so good, yet their actual rushing numbers are so average. In all, you can kind of see where both teams might succeed. Iowa State will succeed by playing well in the trenches and pulling off as many short, quick passes as they can manage. Missouri will succeed by using their superior linebackers to limit the running game, by tackling well, and by making stops on standard downs to force passing downs.

Quarterback

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

Austen Arnaud: 131-for-237 passing, 1,550 yards, 12 TDs, 9 INT (119.3 efficiency); 479 rushing yards, 7 TD
Jerome Tiller: 41-for-73 passing, 376 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT (93.0 efficiency); 216 rushing yards, 2 TD

For the second straight season, Austen Arnaud has put together numbers that are ... perfectly average. ISU has been decent in the passing game (with little help from the receiving corps), and Arnaud has become more of a threat with his legs this year, and he is by all means a solid quarterback. He will never threaten for all-conference honors, and honestly he seems like he should be scarier than he is -- strong arm, good legs, etc. --but he is competent. I mean this entire paragraph as neither a bad thing nor a particularly bad thing.

Running Back

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in Adjusted POE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Alexander Robinson: 196 carries, 1,002 yards (5.1 per carry), 6 TD; 10 receptions, 200 yards (20.0 per catch), 3 TD
Jeremiah Schwartz: 71 carries, 264 yards (3.7 per carry)

Again, Robinson's numbers look strong, and he was huge against Missouri at Faurot Field two years ago, but once you factor line play into the equation, he starts to look very average, very quickly. He is a workhorse, however, and there is value in that. In the last five games that he has played (he missed the Nebraska game with a groin injury), he has averaged 22.4 carries per game, and like KSU's Daniel Thomas, ISU will absolutely lean on him as much as they can. It's just that, in those five games, he's only averaged over 5.0 yards per carry once. The injury has clearly affected his explosiveness.

In the nine games he's played (he only got 4 carries against KSU, so we're not counting that one here), here are his yards per carry:

5.2, 5.3, 6.2, 5.9, 5.6, 4.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.6

Even last week against Colorado, when he went for 138 yards (plus 20 yards receiving), he still averaged less than five yards. The trick with Robinson is, the longer ISU stays in the game, the more they can pound away at you with him. But if you get a lead, then they don't know where to go with the ball. He still averaged 18 carries a game in blowout losses against OSU and ATM, but it didn't help much, as ISU scored only 18 points combined.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

WR Marquis Hamilton (Sr.): 41 receptions, 542 yards (13.2 per catch), 4 TD
WR Jake Williams (Jr.): 26 receptions, 297 yards (11.4 per catch), 3 TD
WR Josh Lenz (Fr.): 20 receptions, 186 yards (9.3 per catch)
WR Darius Darks (So.): 17 receptions, 158 yards (9.3 per catch), 1 TD
WR Darius Reynolds (Jr.): 13 receptions, 72 yards (5.5 per catch!)

TE Derrick Catlett (Sr.): 25 receptions, 277 yards (11.1 per catch), 2 TD
TE Collin Franklin (Jr.): 14 receptions, 149 yards (10.6 per catch)

If a wide receiver is making a big play, it is almost certainly coming from Marquis Hamilton, who seems to be in his 19th year in Ames. Otherwise, this is as nondescript a WR corps as you will find. The good news for ISU is, they have a pair of rock solid tight ends, and they will use them a lot if given the opportunity. Of ISU's 12 complete passes last week, five went to the tight ends. Derrick Catlett very much impressed me in last year's Mizzou-ISU game, and Mizzou very much needs to account for him. Still, though, having good tight ends only helps with efficiency, not so much explosiveness. If Mizzou tackles well and plays smart, this unit simply will not have much of a day.

Offensive Line

Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.
Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Consider this the best test of the month for Mizzou's improving, and almost awesome, defensive line. As mentioned in the above excerpt, this is a big, strong offensive line, and they have the potential to wear you down if you are allowing too many first downs. They are good in pass protection, but their strength is in the running game. With an elite back, the run blocking really could have made the difference between six wins and a North title. This is Iowa State's single strongest unit.

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Defense

Iowa State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

ISU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	ISU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	86.5 (100)	116.2 (28)
Close Success Rate+	83.1 (117)	106.7 (41)
Close PPP+	91.9 (73)	133.1 (22)

Rushing S&P+	97.5 (74)	102.5 (67)
Passing S&P+	78.2 (111)	126.7 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	90.7 (95)	113.3 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	91.5 (87)	115.4 (43)

Red Zone S&P+	98.9 (69)	79.3 (108)

Q1 S&P+	79.2 (106)	120.9 (38)
Q2 S&P+	94.8 (75)	114.9 (43)
Q3 S&P+	90.6 (84)	118.1 (32)
Q4 S&P+	92.9 (79)	107.0 (56)

1st Down S&P+	97.2 (70)	114.1 (34)
2nd Down S&P+	82.3 (107)	112.0 (48)
3rd Down S&P+	87.4 (95)	118.5 (35)

Line Yards+	89.6 (100)	99.1 (71)
Close Sack Rate+	44.9 (119)	140.4 (29)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	51.7 (114) / 76.9 (94)	228.7 (11) / 110.9 (53)

When they are not forcing turnovers, they are not getting the job done.

ISU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	98.8	96.7
Close SR+	99.6	86.9
Close PPP+	98.7	120.5

Rushing S&P+	131.4	113.4
Passing S&P+	81.7	91.5

Standard Downs S&P+	96.7	98.6
Passing Downs S&P+	107.1	119.1

Red Zone S&P+	115.1	129.5

Q1 S&P+	100.0	102.0
Q2 S&P+	125.8	124.0
Q3 S&P+	83.9	111.7
Q4 S&P+	132.5	104.4

So as the season has progressed, Iowa State has gotten better defending the pass and worse defending the rush. Against Missouri, that might not necessarily be a bad thing for them. You have to account for Mizzou's pass before you worry about the run.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Push
Missouri Passing	Big Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for ISU:	Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	The rest of the game

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, Success Rate+, Points Per Play+
Rushing (slight)
Passing (huge)
Standard Downs, Passing Downs
Q1-Q4
1st-3rd Down
Line Yards
Sack Rates (HUGE)

ISU's advantages:

Red Zone

Two quick notes:

ANY sack Mizzou gives up is a huge failure. ISU has generated one of the worst pass rushes in the country.
Each of the last two games, a key factor has been Touchdowns vs Field Goals. ISU's only significant advantage is in the Red Zone, but if they can hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven, they will stay in the game for longer and longer. And as mentioned above, the longer they stay in this game, the longer they can pound away at Mizzou with their big linemen in run blocking.

Defensive Line

As mentioned above, I consider the line a relative strength of the defense even though only two starters return. There's good experience at tackle, with 9th-year senior Nate Frere (9.5 sacks/TFL) leading the way and upperclassmen Austin Alburtis and Bailey Johnson filling in. I like Stephen Ruempolhamer quite a bit, though that's either because a) his name is awesome, or b) he somehow managed two fumble recoveries and eight tackles. Needless to say, a 1-to-4 FR-to-tackle ratio is...rare. For Sean Weatherspoon to have pulled that off last year, he'd have recovered about 40 fumbles. Which would have been awesome.

DE Christopher Lyle: 41.0 tackles, 9.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH, 3 PBU
DT Nate Frere: 17.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 QBH
DT Bailey Johnson: 15.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks
DE Patrick Neal: 14.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
DT Stephen Ruempolhamer: 12.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
DT Austin Alburtis: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

I called this unit a relative strength in the offseason, but it has been absolutely brutal this year. Chris Lyle has put together some nice numbers, but the rest of the line has been, to put it kindly, iffy. Mizzou's decent-not-great offensive line should be able to impose its will on this unit, which ranks 100th or worse in both line yards and sack rates.

Linebackers

Another unit that wasn't done any favors by the BTBS numbers, ISU's LBs have K-State's problem--lots of experience, little known talent. They have their prototypical 'tackling machine' in Jesse Smith and another decent playmaker in Fred Garrin--the two combined for 12 sacks/TFL, 4 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, and a handful of other disruptive stats--but they were eclipsed in total tackles by safety James Smith, which is almost never a good thing. Other guys like Josh Raven and Derec Schmidgall have seemingly been around forever, with little to show for it.

Jesse Smith: 88.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 3 QBH, 5 PBU
Fred Garrin: 60.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 4 PBU
Josh Raven: 27.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH
Jake Knott: 16.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
A.J. Klein: 11.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

On the other hand, ISU's linebackers been more disruptive than expected, at least in terms of getting a hand in on turnovers. Josh Raven has been the only behind-the-line-of-scrimmage threat, and this isn't a wonderful unit by any means, but the five players above have forced six fumbles, recovered two, and picked off four passes. If Blaine Gabbert gets a little too greedy and locks in on a receiver, the back seven of ISU's defense might make him pay.

Secondary

First things first: for a redshirt freshman, Leonard Johnson was quite good in 2008. He had a hand in a ton of big plays--he intercepted two passes (he had a third against Missouri, but it was called back due to a penalty far removed from Johnson), forced two fumbles, recovered three fumbles, and broke up four passes. Not bad consiering how poor the supporting cast around him was. As mentioned before, James Smith was a tiny tackling machine, posting 85 tackles and almost no "disruptive" stats (sacks/TFL, FF, FR, INT, QBH, PBR, etc.) whatsoever. And beyond that...well, let's just say this: with the "+" stats, Big 12 defenses were cut major slack because of the strength of the offenses they were facing. For instance, Missouri ranked in the top 30 in pass defense despite their high yardage totals. If you were a Big 12 defense, you were guaranteed to give up a ton of yards. And yet Iowa State's pass defense still managed to get themselves ranked 109th in the country last year. Ouch. All the slack in the world, and they only ranked above 11 other teams.

S James Smith: 61.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 3 FR, 5 PBU
S David Sims: 54.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 4 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR
CB Leonard Johnson: 46.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 PBU
CB Kennard Banks: 42.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 5 PBU
S Michael O'Connell: 27.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBU
CB Ter'ran Benton: 26.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
CB Jeremy Reeves: 10.0 tackles

It's interesting: the Iowa State secondary has been about as disruptive a secondary as you could ask for. Eleven tackles for loss, nine interceptions, seven forced fumbles, seven recovered fumbles, a ton of broken-up passes ... and yet, when they are not making huge plays, they're leaking yardage like our old dishwasher leaked water. This is about as all-or-nothing a unit as you're going to find, and it is a must that Mizzou play smart in their passing game. If Gabbert makes the smart throw, and the receivers hold onto the ball (Jerrell Jackson, I'm looking in your general direction), then they should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. But ISU is good at turning little mistakes into large mistakes. Speaking of mistakes...

Injured Blaine Gabbert: 42-for-95 passing (44.2%), 512 yards (5.4 per pass), 1 TD (1.1% of passes), 5 INT (5.3%)
Healthy Blaine Gabbert: 159-for-246 (64.6%), 2,150 yards (8.7 per pass), 19 TD (7.7%), 2 INT (0.8%)

WOW. I realize that his injury coincided perfectly with the best threesome of pass defenses that Missouri faced this year, and I realize he wouldn't have produced his season averages in 11 quarters against Nebraska, OSU, and Texas, but ... still ... wow. Healthy Gabbert is completing 20% more of his passes than Injured Gabbert, for 3.3 more yards per pass, throwing TDs at a 7x higher rate, while throwing INTs at almost a 7x lower rate. It's an amazing question to wonder what Gabbert's already strong numbers would have looked like had Ndamukong Suh not rolled him up.

In the end, Healthy Gabbert is taking on a secondary that, while more disruptive, is really no better than Kansas State's ... and with help from Danario Alexander, he carved K-State up quite nicely. I'm curious how Mizzou will handle the loss of Jared Perry, particularly who becomes the fourth major target, assuming Jerrell Jackson is now #2 and Wes Kemp #3 (or vice versa). Does long-lost Andrew Jones join the fray again? Does somebody like Brandon Gerau, Rolandis Woodland, or T.J. Moe suddenly see a couple passes? Danario Alexander already catches a higher percentage of his team's passes than any other major receiver, so we can't really lean on him more than we already do.

Special Teams

If the offense and defense can keep Iowa State in the game, the special teams unit is just good enough to make the difference. Grant Mahoney was quite good for a freshman, and Mike Brandtner isn't a liability at punter. Leonard Johnson is a potentially explosive kick returner, and Michael O'Connell is...well, he's a punt returner. We'll see what he's capable of.

Punt Returns Rank: 104th (Josh Lenz: 19 returns, 4.7 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 24th (Mike Brandtner: 56 punts, 40.5 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 56th (Leonard Johnson: 17 returns, 20.4 avg; David Sims: 15 returns, 22.9 avg)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 7th (Grant Mahoney: 2 touchbacks in 48 kickoffs)

Field Goals: 98th (Grant Mahoney: 12-for-19, Long: 52)
PATs: 118th (Grant Mahoney: 21-for-25)

Another all-or-nothing unit, ISU's coverage teams are rock solid. They're 24th in Net Punting and 7th in Net Kickoffs, but they pretty much stink on ice at everything else. They're bad at returning punts, they're bad at place-kicking, and they're only okay at kickoff returns. (Of course, "okay at kickoff returns" could actually mean "good at kickoff returns" against Missouri. We'll see.) Mizzou has a solid advantage here if Jake Harry is getting good bounces and there are no complete debacles at kickoff return.

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Three Keys to the Game

Turnovers. More than any other game, turnovers.

It's pretty obvious that Iowa State is well above average in terms of forcing fumbles and intercepting passes. If it is a technique that can be learned, they've learned it. Meanwhile, Missouri is actually somewhat due a turnover -- their last one was in the third quarter against Colorado, meaning they've gone nine quarters without a lost turnover. Even the best teams in the world throw a pick or bobble a ball every now and then, so expect 1-2 from Mizzou tomorrow. But if they stop it at 1-2, while maybe forcing 1-2 themselves, then ISU's odds of winning go down exponentially. Turnovers are always important, but ISU lives and dies off of them.

Touchdowns instead of field goals.

Mizzou had to settle for three field goals against Baylor, and even though The Amazing Grant Ressel made them all, settling for them in the first place cost them quite a bit in an eight-point win. Meanwhile, Missouri held K-State to four field goals last Saturday, and while their final winning margin suggests it probably wouldn't have made a difference, it did.

Defenses are slowly starting to catch up to offenses again, especially in the red zone, and it seems touchdowns have been much harder to come by for a lot of teams this year. If Mizzou is able to punch the ball into the endzone instead of settling for three points, an Iowa State offense that has been far from en fuego recently will find it quite difficult to score enough points to keep up. But if Mizzou gets, say, three scoring opportunities in the first half and only comes away with 9 points instead of 17 or 21, look out. Meanwhile, if they're holding ISU to field goals, ISU has no chance. Red zone execution is ISU's only major defensive advantage, and it could be a big one.

Tackle.

Expect ISU to run plenty of short, quick passes, and expect them to work at least a bit considering Mizzou's typically soft coverage cushions. It's annoying, but we saw last week why they do it. If they tackle well and force an only-decent offense like Iowa State's to drive the length of the field consistently, the Cyclones will falter more often than not. But if they do ISU some favors, and the Cyclones are able to generate some bigger plays, then ... well, we saw what happens in that scenario two weeks ago against Baylor. Play disciplined on defense, do your job, and Iowa State will need another +8 turnover margin to win the game.

Prediction

Not surprisingly, the numbers like Mizzou quite a bit in this one. I don't believe too heavily in things like Senior Day emotion playing a big role or anything -- to me, it could almost be a detriment as much as an asset -- but in the end, emotion should even out, and Mizzou should move to 7-4. I cannot commend enough the job that Paul Rhoads has done this season, taking a group that had no idea how to win, and teaching them how to seize every opportunity and win some ball games. Still, though, if Missouri doesn't turn the ball over and give ISU extra opportunities, they should be able to handle Iowa State relatively easily. Make mistakes, however, and you will pay. The numbers say Mizzou by 18, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Iowa State 13.

Week 7 Wrap-Up

Mark Kieffer — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 16:53:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud (4) celebrates with teammates Derrick Catlett, center, Alex Alvarez (77) and Jake Williams, right, after Cetlett's touchdown reception during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

Final - 10.17.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
Baylor Bears	3	0	0	7	10
Iowa St. Cyclones	0	14	10	0	24

Complete Coverage >

We done did it! ISU finally won a Big 12 game, the first in nearly two years (1-11 last twelve Big 12 games now). Below are some thoughts on the game:

What I liked:

We won. I know it was a depleted Baylor team, but we won a conference game. Hopefully we can pick up a couple more, to shut up all the a-holes that predicted we'd win 1-2 games, and go o-fer in the conference again. We picked up our first Big 12 win since our win over Colorado on November 10th, 2007. We are just past the halfway point of the season with a winning record. I'd love to see if this team could find a way to get to 6 wins this year.
ISU rushed for 240 yards. It started off kind of slow, but between A-Rob, Tiller (yes, Tiller), Arnaud, and Schwartz, ISU picked up a lot of rushing yards this game.
Winning the turnover battle. ISU was +2, as we picked off Baylor 3 times, and got picked once.
Tiller's running ability -- outside the tackles. The guy is quick. I saw it in the Spring Game, and we saw more of it last night. Inside the tackles, not so much. The guy is skinnier than most of our WRs. He does not have the ability to fight for that extra yard or two, simply because just isn't as strong.
Baylor's sense of urgency on the first possession in the second half. So Baylor is down 14-3 with 13 or 14 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, on their own 32 with a 4th and 1 situation. Easy call here, punt the ball right? NOPE! Instead, Baylor goes for it on 4th and 1, doesn't make it, and it sets up an ISU field goal. Just way too early to be thinking of going for it, but I guess it says a lot about what the coach thought of his team's chances of getting back in the game.

What I didn't like:

Getting off to a slow start. The first quarter was pretty unimpressive from both sides. Just bad offensive execution, and some bad defense as well. Often times the first handful of plays offensivley are scripted and/or they are plays that you worked on a lot that week. It'd be nice to get an opening TD or something like that.
Bad tackling. Baylor had to abandon the run due to getting down early, but their RBs picked up many extra yards (especially in that first quarter) due to mistackling. The same goes for their WRs on the short passes. I think we did a better job of it as the game went on, but how we started could have really hurted us if we were playing a better offense.
Arnaud's interception. Not trying to throw him under the bus or anything like that, but when you have the chance to go up 14-3, and you throw a pick in the end zone, giving the other team enough time to go down the field to make it a 1 possession game, it's not good. Fortunatley, Baylor's offense fizzled about midfield, but it could've been 14-10, or 14-6, with Baylor getting the ball first in the third quarter. A better team, may have hurt us more off the turnover.
Baylor's weak ass offense. Honestly, this was the weakest shit I've seen from a Big 12 team in a while. The story of their offense was screen passes. At first they worked as ISU had issues with tackling, but eventually the effectiveness was lost. Maybe part of this was due to their QB's lack of ability, but there are plenty of holes in the secondary down the field. Now, I like short passes, but you have to mix it up with taking some shots down the field to keep the defense honest. As an ISU fan, I liked this, but I think there was some poor play calling with Baylor.
Missing too many field goals. The first one, I won't hold against Mahoney as it was a 50 yarder, which I think is in his range but one can't look at is as an automatic in college football at all. The other two were from 35 and 30 yards away, however. I think on all of these they were too wide. I know nothing about kicking, but I hope he figures it out. Against better teams, we may need those 6 to 9 points we left on the field.
Lack of QB pressure on defense. ISU had one official sack, and it was a coverage sack as their QB had a lot of time to throw, but simply no one was open. There were some other times they brought down the QB, but in the stats, it just goes as a run for negative yards. Still, those were mostly due to the QB having 4+ seconds to throw, couldn't find anyone, ran around and got brought down. Against KU we saw what giving too much time to a QB can do to you. We did have 5 QB hurries vs. 0 last week against KU, so perhaps we are improving, but it isn't as much as I'd like to see. As long was the opposing QB has plenty of time, the good ones will hurt us. Fortunatley, Szymanski is not a good QB.

I am happy that the team won, but this was a game that could have been a blowout had the execution been better. We need to play better than this if we are going to beat a Nebraska.

Notes:

Alexander Robinson appeared to have reinjured himself yet again, and it didn't look good. Getting all the way back from an injured groin takes a good amount of rest. I just hope he's alright.
Austen Arnaud left the game in the third quarter due to a bruised throwing hand. This is why Tiller played for almost the entire second half.

Props:

After suspending for a week, I've decided to bring my props back:

Marquis Hamilton - 9 catches for 97 yards, including hanging on to a big hit from Jordan Lake coming across the middle. In my pregame writeup, I talked about our receivers holding onto the ball coming across the middle because Lake is the kind of hard-hitting safety that will make you pay.
Josh Lenz - 7 catches for 43 yards, with no drops either. I'm just impressed that this guy is finding his way on the field and making plays. Before the season had started, I thought no way he'd see some time, but he has, and done pretty well.
Derrick Catlett - 5 catches for 52 yards, and 1 TD
Jerome Tiller - 7 of 8 passing for 48 yards, and 10 rushes for 74 yards and 1 TD. Took advantage of having the chance to play for almost half of the game. Still has a lot to work on, but we didn't lose anything by having Tiller out there, which is great to have in a backup.
Fred Garrin - 7 tackles, 2 interceptions. Yes the balls were thrown right to him, but I see many linebackers dropping these balls. Both of these were as Baylor was starting to get into Cyclone territory and were drive-killers for them.
Leonard Johnson - 5 tackles (one for loss), 1 interception. Made a nice jumping catch near the sideline on a deep pass to prevent the big play from Baylor.

Now the attention turns to Nebraska next week. Nebraska is the better team in my mind, but who knows what will happen? The Big 12 just saw Colorado beat KU (and ISU almost beat KU), and K-State put up 62 points against aTm.

New Depth Chart Released

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 03:12:18 -0000

Per Cyclones.com

The Cyclones Football team released the latest depth chart tonight. I would assume that barring injury these will be how it plays out for the NDSU game, but these types of things are always subject to change.

Here's a quick look (in order from starter to 3rd string):

Offense:

QB: Austen Arnaud, Jerome Tiller

RB: Alexander Robinson, Jeremiah Schwartz, Bo Williams

WR1: Marquis Hamilton, Jake Williams, Houston Jones

WR2: Sedrick Johnson, Joel Zitek

WR3: Darius Reynolds, Josh Lenz, Darius Darks, Jason Carlson

TE: Collin Franklin, Derrick Catlett

LT: Kelechi Osemele, Brayden Burris

LG: Alex Alvarez, Hayworth Hicks

C: Reggie Stephens, Sean Smith

RG: Ben Lamaak, Trey Baysinger

RT: Scott Haughton, Zack Spears

Not too many surprises with the offense. The Offensive Line was pretty much set and Osemele was the leading name for that LT spot for a while. Don't freak out by seeing Darks down so low on the Depth Chart. He's trying to overcome a hamstring injury and was forced to miss a lot of time during fall camp. Bo Williams drops to 3rd, but I don't think it's anything against him, as he's a more of a traditional type of a back, as opposed to a receiver in the backfield. Overall there wasn't as many position battles for the Offense as there was for the Defense.

Defense:

LE: Rashawn Parker, Cleyon Laing, Patrick Neal

DT: Austin Alburtis, Bailey Johnson, Taylor Mansfield

NG: Nate Frere, Stephen Ruempolhamer, Jerrod Black

RE: Christopher Lyle, Roosevelt Maggitt

Sam: Josh Raven, Jacob Lattimer

Mike: Jesse Smith, Matt Taufoou, A.J. Klein

Will: Fred Garrin, Derec Schmidgall, Jake Knott

RCB: Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell

LCB: Kennard Banks, Ter'ran Benton, Jeremy Reeves

SS: David Sims, Michael O'Connell, Zac Sandvig

FS: James Smith, Alan Bell

On Defense, not too many suprises. I suppose the notable one for me is that I was under the impression that Taufoou was going to play that Sam spot, but I guess not. No suprises in the Secondary at all.

On the Defensive Line, I knew the DT and RE spot would be wide open, and we will learn more about Lyle and Alburtis as the season goes on. This unit is going to have the most questions in my mind because there are two new starters, and also because the unit was not very good last year.

I'm not going to create a separate section for this, but it appears that LJ is going to return Kicks and Punts, but there are a lot of guys listed there. There was some discussion about having LJ just focus on defense and having someone else do it, and I also thought that Darius Reynolds may do some returns. I guess with Darius, however, I'd rather be a starting WR than just a return guy.

I know this news has me fired up for the football season! It's nice to get an idea of where people are going to be playing and what we might expect for next year.

What are your thoughts on the Depth Chart? Any surprises?

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview - Iowa State

Mark Kieffer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2009 marks the beginning of the Paul Rhoads era at ISU

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The SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview will post Friday, at Ralphie Report. This is a high level preview of Iowa State, and my conference predictions. If you have been reading my more detailed Iowa State and Big 12 previews, this will provide a summary of what you've been reading.If you are new to the site, welcome and enjoy your stay at Clone Chronicles!

Offense (9 Returning Starters):

The offense should be a strength for the Cyclones. The Cyclones have an entirely new coaching staff, with Tom Herman (formerly of Rice) as the new OC. The Cyclones are going to be running a no-huddle spread offense, and having seen Herman's track record, many believe (or at least hope) that the Cyclones will be able to put up some serious points. The one thing we learned about the Big 12 last year, is that you have to score if you want to win.

Passing: The Cyclones offense will be lead by returning starting QB, Austen Arnaud, a junior from Ames, IA. In 2008 Arnaud completed 61% of his passes, threw for for 2792 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. Arnaud also ran for 400 yards and scored 5 TDs on the ground. Arnaud will be joined by a young, but talented receiving corps., lead by Sophomore WR Darius Darks (2nd on the team last year as a True Freshmen with 49 Catches), JUCO-Transfer Darius Reynolds, Sophomore Sedrick Johnson, and Senior Marquis Hamilton. One can expect to see the Cyclones run 3 and 4 WR sets, as WR is the deepest position on the offense. Not to be forgotten is Senior TE, Derrick Catlett who caught 20 passes for 230 yards in 2008.

Running: The running game has been a somewhat hot topic for Cyclones fans this offseason. Returning starter Alexander Robinson, a Junior from Minneapolis, is believed to be the starting RB. Herman likes to use the RB as a receiver, and Robinson has the hands as he caught 17 passes for 160 yards in 2008, slightly down from 20 he caught in 2007. The running back corps also has Bo Williams a transfer from Florida, and Jeremiah Schwartz, a Redshirt Freshmen entering his first season. Williams has a bruising running style, but it is not clear if he has the hands to catch the ball out of the backfield. Schwartz is a change-of-pace back who is quick and can elude tacklers. True Freshmen Beau Blankenship has reportedly done well in camp, but I would not be suprised to see him redshirt.

Offensive Line: The Cyclones offensive line was the achillies heel of the offense. This is obviously not the spot you want to have your major weakness. It's also not surprising when you have the skill position talent the Cyclones have, but only win 2 games the year before. The big move on the offensive line is All-Big 12 Caliber Senior OG Reggie Stephens has moved to C, and Junior C Alex Alvarez will move to OG. The good news about this group is there is a lot of experience, as 4 of the starters return from last year. The 5th starter is an uncertainty at this point (at least to me). There appears to be a hole at OT, and I've heard names such as Keleichi Osemele, Hayworth Hicks, Zack Spears, and others. The unit is looking to be one of the largest in College Football, averaging 320+lbs. Bottom line is this: the OL was weak last year, and there is a lot of returning experience coming back. The hope is that these guys can improve and stay healthy, as there isn't a lot of depth. If the OL can just get to below-average, instead of bad, the Cyclones could have a nice season offensively.

Key Additions: JUCO WR Darius Reynolds, RB Schwartz (redshirt off), RB Bo Williams (transfer from Florida)

Key Losses: WR RJ Sumrall, OT Doug Dedrick, C Mike Knapp

What you can expect to see from the Cyclones is 75-80% passing, and lots of short dump passes. With a weaker OL, there won't be many running lanes, and Arnaud won't have a lot of time to make deep throws. The Big 12 can put up points, and the defenses will be questionable. If the Cyclones are going to win games, it will have to be done by putting up a lot of points through the air.

Defense (6 Returning Starters)

The Cyclones defense was a disaster last year, allowing almost 36 points per game, 453 yards of offense (277 passing, 176 rushing), and I wouldn't be surprised if they lead the nation in missed tackles. New DC Wally Burnham is a czar at stopping spread offenses, and he will have his work cut out for him with this group.

Defensive Line: Last year the Defensive Line was a weak link for the Cyclones, as evidenced by the rushing yards allowed. The guys got pushed around on running plays, and on passing plays could not put pressure on the QB. This year's group is led by Seniors DE Rashawn Parker and DT Nate Frere. Numerous names have been thrown out there for the other DE and DT spot, and I will not even try to speculate. Frere and Parker are good players, but if the other 2 guys aren't as productive, it will be easy for opposing linemen to double these guys, and run the ball away from them.

Linebackers: The linebacking group had it's fair share of problems as well. There were a lot of missed tackles in the open field, which attributed for longer gains on the ground and after the catch. Seniors MLB Jesse Smith and OLB Fred Garrin will lead the group. Adding JUCO OLB Matt Taufoou will hopefully improve the unit drastically.

Secondary: By looking at the stats last year, one would make the conclusion that ISU's secondary was horrible, but that wasn't necessarily the case. The DL not being able to put pressure on the QB, gave opposing QBs plenty of time to find holes in the zone. Sophomore CB Leonard Johnson has the potential to be a shutdown corner in the Big 12, while Senior CB Kennard Banks (who was injured a lot of last year) is a solid player. DC Wally Burnham has even said that these two guys will allow for the Cyclones to be able to mix up coverages and even blitz. The rest of the unit will include JUCO SS David Sims, and Senior FS James Smith.

Overall, I'd expect to see the Cyclones defense find creative ways to put pressure on the QB. Last year, the staff was all about staying in a base defense, and hoping the DL would somehow get good over the course of the season, as we saw very little blitzing. I think Burnham understands that you have to find a way to pressure the QB, especially in the Big 12. You take a risk when you blitz, but if the DL can't put on pressure, you have to find other ways to do it. If the Cyclones can find ways to put pressure, and the team can improve their tackling, this could be an average defense (instead of a defense ranked in the triple digits).

Key Additions: JUCO LB Matt Taufoou, JUCO SS David Sims

Key Departures: DE Kurtis Taylor, DT Michael Tate, LB Michael Bibbs, SS Brandon Hunley

Special Teams (4 Returning Starters)

To avoid being confusing, I am not including the FG protection, Punt protection, Kickoff Coverage, etc. When I talk Special Teams in this section, I am talking about K, P, KR, and PR.

Once an area that haunted the 'Clones under McCarney, Special Teams was a bright spot for ISU last year. All Big 12 Caliber P Mike Brandtner returns for his Senior Year, and strong legged K Grant Mahoney comes back for his Sophomore Year. Mahoney has the range (48 was his longest FG), but needs to improve on his 68% accuracy.

Last year Leonard Johnson has a great year returning kicks, averaging a little over 26 yards per return. It is unclear whether Johnson will be returning Kicks and/or Punts this season, and from the reports from camp, WR Darius Reynolds could be seeing some action as a return man as well. Regardless of who's returning, it's going to be an explosive and talented group.

Overall, I look for ISU to have one of the best Special Teams Units in All of the Big 12, and that is something I didn't think I'd ever say about ISU a few years ago.

Season Forecast:

Big 12 North:

Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska

National Championship Game: Oklahoma over Alabama

For more reading on my ISU Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Third Quarter

Part 4: 2009 Predictions: Iowa State - Fourth Quarter

For more reading on my Big 12 Projections:

Part 1: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - First Quarter

Part 2: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

Part 3: 2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

Iowa State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

Who am I? What am I doing here?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Yeah, yeah...I'm a day late with this. I'm not your nerd jester! We are down to our second-to-last regular season opponent of the year, the Cyclones of Iowa State. Once again, a new era starts in Ames. Is Paul Rhoads the man for the job?

2008

Record: 2-10 (0-8 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 177.7 (104th in the country, 12th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 304-430 (-126)
Conference Scoring Margin: 176-334 (-158)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #107 Kent State, 1-AA South Dakota State
Losses: #10 Missouri, #13 Iowa, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #88 UNLV, #98 Texas A&M

This is going to be the backhanded compliment of all backhanded compliments, but...for a 2-10 team that didn't beat a team ranked higher than 107th, Iowa State really wasn't that bad. They managed a scoring margin of just -126 points, which certainly isn't good at all, but again...for a 2-10 team, that could have been worse. That's what happens when you lose by 2 to Kansas, 3 to UNLV, 4 to Colorado, 8 to Kansas State, 12 to Iowa, and 14 to Texas A&M. If ISU had just figured out a way to be five points better in 2008, they would have been a much more respectable 5-7...

...and Gene Chizik would have left anyway. In the end, results from 2008 don't matter because Iowa State is once again starting from scratch in 2009. They've got some experience here and there, but a) probably not enough, and b) we don't really know what Paul Rhoads is going to do with that talent until the season starts.

Coaching

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads
Record at Iowa State: UNDEFEATED!!!!

Paul Rhoads has been a pretty stellar defensive coordinator for many years at the college level, but I think when he was being considered for the job, his most important qualification was what comes at the beginning of the second paragraph of his bio (PDF): "Born in Nevada, Iowa, just 10 minutes from Jack Trice Stadium..."

For all of Rhoads' accomplishments, the biggest draw for hiring him to coach the Cyclones had to have been simply that he's an Iowa boy (alma mater: Missouri Western), he likely considers ISU much more of a destination job than the last guy they hired, and he won't be looking for a bigger lilypad the moment the opportunity arises. He will build Iowa State for the long haul, and I think as long as he produces any sort of results whatsoever, he will be given a lot of rope.

An assistant to Dan McCarney when McCarney first came to Ames, Rhoads pretty quickly worked his way up the coaching ladder. He was LB/DB coach for five seasons in Ames before Walt Harris hired him as Defensive Coordinator for the Pitt Panthers. In eight seasons with Pittsburgh, he put together consistently solid defenses and was maintained when Walt Harris left for Stanford and the Wannstache took over. Pitt's defenses forced a ton of turnovers and always ranked pretty highly in terms of yardage allowed. In 2008, he moved south, replacing Will Muschamp as Auburn's Defensive Coordinator. Auburn's basic stats slipped under Rhoads, but everybody pretty much agreed that they were asked to do far too much with an incompetent Tiger offense putting them in sub-optimal situations.

Like Bob Stoops, Bo Pelini, and Mike Sherman, Rhoads assumes a Big 12 head coaching position with a strong defensive background. How will that translate to life in the Big 12 North? How much will recruiting need to improve for the Cyclones to move into the North's upper echelon (which, let's face it, isn't that "upper" at the moment)? Can it happen?

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 88.1 (#101)
Success Rate+: 90.3 (#100)
PPP+: 86.1 (#101)

Standard Downs S&P+: 92.1 (#91)
Passing Downs S&P+: 92.8 (#87)

Redzone S&P+: 82.3 (#112)

Q1 S&P+: 92.6 (#82)
Q2 S&P+: 89.4 (#99)
Q3 S&P+: 78.2 (#114)
Q4 S&P+: 110.9 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 94.5 (#82)
2nd Down S&P+: 93.9 (#84)
3rd Down S&P+: 89.4 (#90)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 88.4 (#97)
Rushing SR+: 90.7 (#99)
Rushing PPP+: 86.8 (#94)

Standard Downs: 89.7 (#96)
Passing Downs: 95.2 (#80)

Redzone: 80.2 (#112)

Line Yards+: 90.5 (#102)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 87.5 (#94)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#90)
Passing PPP+: 85.0 (#93)

Standard Downs: 94.4 (#79)
Passing Downs: 90.1 (#88)

Redzone: 89.1 (#86)

Sack Rate+: 105.5 (#56)

Aside from their 3rd-to-4th quarter splits, these numbers are pretty consistently terrible. It's important to remember the strength-of-schedule component to the "+" number here. Iowa State put respectable offensive numbers--25.3 points per game, 386.8 total yards, 5.5 yards per play--but these came against defenses that were giving up 400 or 500 yards to everybody else (plus, a lot of the yards came at the end of blowouts). In the end, the 387 yards per game were far below what would have been expected against the defenses Iowa State faced, and it damaged their rankings.

Other thoughts:

Aside from their strong fourth-quarter rankings (which, as we've seen with other teams, can be skewed if you're blowing other teams out, or getting blown out, and your starters aren't playing much in the fourth quarter), ISU's biggest strength was in pass blocking, where they were above average with a 105.5 Sack Rate+, 56th in the country. Beyond that? Not much to be happy about...or, for an opponent, not much to be scared of.
ISU was consistently below-average in both the running and passing games, ranking 97th and 94th, respectively. They ranked between 90th and 101st in most Success Rate+ and PPP+ breakouts. They were bad across the board.

Quarterback

The stats don't like Austen Arnaud, but he's got at least a decent amount of upside.

2008 Unit Ranking: #92 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Austen Arnaud (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Jerome Tiller (6'4, 185, RSFr.)
Brett Bueker (6'4, 213, RSFr.)

In glimpses, Austen Arnaud has size, a strong arm, and at least decent running ability. He completed 61.6% of his passes in 2008 for a solid 2,792 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. He also mixed in 401 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In normal times, those would be considered numbers worthy of all-conference consideration. But in the Big 12, these aren't normal times. Arnaud's numbers put him at just 9th in the conference yardage, 11th in passer efficiency. And once again, when you factor in what was expected given the defenses Arnaud was facing, a decent quarterback probably would have produced more.

That said, if Arnaud has strong receiving talent around him, he's a good enough passer to get them the ball and let them make him look good. He does not, in fact, have that talent around him.

Behind Arnaud are a couple of big (well, tall...at 6'4, 185, Jerome Tiller is far from big--Mizzou WR L'Damian Washington is supposedly 6'4, 180, and Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond can't help but mention how skinny he is every time they talk about him) youngsters fighting it out to become his successor in 2011. Tiller was a decent-looking 3-star recruit in high school and is likely being groomed for the job.

Running Backs

If Alexander Robinson always played like he did in 2007 against Missouri, he'd be an all-conference back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #90 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alexander Robinson (5'10, 184, Jr.)
Bo Williams (6'0, 217, So.)
Jeremiah Schwartz (5'11, 238, RSFr.)

Though the unit ranked just 90th in the country last year, I'm thinking the running backs have the biggest ceiling of any offensive unit Iowa State has. In his first year as a primary ball-carrier, Alexander Robinson fared...alright. His 703 yards, 6 TDs and 4.6 yards per carry were certainly respectable, and Missouri fans know he's capable of pretty solid play after his 2007 performance against them, but again...in a conference full of explosive weapons, Robinson gets lost in the shuffle. Using the POE measure discussed here, Robinson ranked 187th in the country (of about 270 eligible) with a POE of -4.4. Taking into account his relatively weak offensive line, he moved to 126th in AdjustedPOE with a -0.4, meaning when blocking was taken into account, he was almost a precisely average running back last year. Average running backs are capable of a big game or two each year, but that's about it.

Of course, average is better than poor, which is what Austen Arnaud's pass targets were, so Robinson officially qualifies as a bright spot from 2008. He will be joined in the backfield by the intriguing Bo Williams, a former 4-star recruit who originally signed with Florida before transferring. Williams and Robinson running behind a reasonably experienced offensive line suggests that Iowa State's running game should improve a decent amount in 2009. But when your RBs are ranked 90th in the country, improvement only takes them to what...75th? 70th? Still some work to do here, but clearly Williams has some potential.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Darius Darks: possibly ISU's most potentially explosive threat, "potentially" being the key word.

2008 Unit Ranking: #96 in the nation (#11 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Darius Darks (6'1, 175, So.)
Sedrick Johnson (6'4, 199, So.)
Marquis Hamilton (6'4, 228, Sr.)
Houston Jones (6'1, 193, Sr.)
Jason Carlson (6'0, 205, So.)
Lonzie Range (6'3, 183, RSFr.)
Darius Reynolds (6'3, 190, Jr.)
Joshua Bellamy (6'1, 200, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Derrick Catlett (6'4, 252, Sr.)
Collin Franklin (6'6, 248, Jr.)
Carter Bykowski (6'8, 249, So.)

As nice as it might be having a couple of good running backs, Iowa State desperately needs some rejuvenation in the receiving corps. No returning wide receiver averaged more than 12 yards per catch, though there's at least some hope in the fact that two of ISU's leaders last year were true freshmen, former 4-star recruit Sedrick Johnson and 3-star Darius Darks. Neither did a whole lot--Johnson caught just 18 passes for 188 yards (albeit with three TDs) and Darks caught a ton of passes (49) for not a ton of yards (9.7 per catch, very Thomson Omboga-esque)--but they were young and there's obviously plenty of playing time available in Ames. If they can continue to develop, this unit could be pretty decent, especially if another newcomer or two turns out well.

Marquis Hamilton and Houston Jones are what they are--if this were baseball, I'd be calling them innings eaters (the Josh Fogg variety more than the Esteban-Loaiza-in-his-prime variety) and leave it at that--so really, if this is going to become a truly dangerous unit, newcomers will need to play a role. One of two JUCO transfers, either Darius Reynolds or Joshua Bellamy, will need to turn out pretty capable, or they'll need to luck out with another ready-to-rumble true freshman or two (main candidates: Josh Lenz, Donnie Jennert, or Keith Blanton). Reynolds, a 4-star JUCO recruit from Reedley CC in California, has the best resume of the bunch, but we'll see.

UPDATE, 1:57pm - I completely forgot to talk about the tight ends.

As down as I am about a few of Iowa State's units, I actually like their tight ends a decent amount. Even though Derek Catlett only managed 20 catches for 220 yards last year, he finished the year with eight catches and 121 yards in the final two games, against Missouri and Kansas State. I realize I'm probably high on him simply because he looked really good against Mizzou and was non-existent to me the rest of the year, but it is what it is. Meanwhile, Collin Franklin is pretty decent as well. Really, if we look at the two players as one entity, they're impressive--35 catches, 478 yards, 2 TDs. They're not all-conference caliber players, but at the very least one of them could emerge as one of the better North tight ends behind Mike McNeill (and hopefully Andrew Jones).

Offensive Line

Big dude.

2008 Unit Ranking: #89 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Reggie Stephens (6'4, 338, Sr.)
G Ben Lamaak (6'5, 320, Jr.)
C Alex Alvarez (6'2, 294, Jr.)
T Hayworth Hicks (6'3, 354, Jr.)
T Kelechi Osmele (6'5, 338, So.)
T Matt Hulbert (6'7, 299, Jr.)
G Joseph Klerekoper (6'5, 305, So.)
G Trey Baysinger (6'6, 317, So.)
T Zack Spears (6'6, 306, So.)
C Ethan Tuftee (6'4, 294, Fr.)

When I was initially ranking offensive lines, I didn't take into account strength of schedule enough. Now that I have a full-fledged SackRate+ number to call on...yeah, Iowa State doesn't look that great. One thing they do have going for them, however, is experience. Their 61 returning career starts is fourth-most in conference. Another thing they have going for them: size. The average weight of their projected starters: 329 pounds. These guys have a lot of nice, corn-fed Iowa names like Lamaak, Klerekoper, Baysinger, Tuftee, and...uhh, Osmele. They should be able to do at least reasonably well against lighter defensive lines.

Really, their size is a potential wildcard. If 220-pound Bo Williams turns out to be a solid running back, they could have a nice, big rushing attack to wear defenses out a little bit.

Then again, a variation of this huge line ranked 102nd in LineYards+ last year, so maybe not.

Summary

If you're looking at specific moments, you can talk yourself into Iowa State a bit. Austen Arnaud went 27-for-45 for 268 yards and 3 TDs against a pretty good Kansas secondary in 2008. Alexander Robinson put up 87 yards in just 11 carries against Nebraska. Darius Darks had seven catches for 113 yards against Oklahoma State. Bo Williams signed with Florida...Florida! But you need more than moments to keep up in the Big 12, and it's still hard to rank given Iowa State units too highly, even within just the Big 12 North. Arnaud's not as good as Todd Reesing, and he's probably not as good as (or at least no better than) Blaine Gabbert or Zac Lee. Robinson's certainly not as good or as proven as Derrick Washington or Roy Helu, Jr. Darks and Sedrick Johnson are not going to remind anybody of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier...or even Jared Perry and Danario Alexander. The line has experience and potential...but Missouri's offensive line has experience, potential, and actual results.

I love nothing more than pointing out "These guys aren't as good/bad as you think" as much as humanly possible. But while Iowa State certainly has the potential to put things together and win a couple of Big 12 games if things go right, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they just don't have enough to compete week in and week out. It will be interesting to see how Paul Rhoads both a) develops what he's got and b) figures out how to attract more talent to Ames, but I think expectations are low for Year #1 for very good reason. Prove me wrong, 'Clones.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Offenses

Bill C. — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:00:18 -0000

Due to a number of factors--desire to use BTBS numbers right now for something other than Bowling Green analysis, annoyance at the quickly-forming "Nebraska is obviously almost back" consensus (how many times have we heard that since 2001?), etc.--I thought I'd take some time and lay out some North Division analysis based on the unit rankings* that I've been using for the BTBS previews the last two weeks.

As I've mentioned before, the unit rankings are a work in progress, but they're at least a place to start. Clearly I think Missouri's WR/TE corps was better than #25 in the country last year (meanwhile, their O-line was good, but probably not #5 in the country), but for the most part they seem like a good jumping-off point. Again, I can go into detail on this if I need to, but I'm working with the assumption that nobody cares that much about the methods. If I'm wrong, let me know.

Before we jump in, however, I'd like to post a graph. It represents each North team's point differential in their ten North division games in 2007-08. This should also be part of any jumping-off point for analysis of the North.

Mizzou went 9-1 versus the North in 2007-08, with only a last-second loss in a rivalry game marring a perfect record. Their per-game point differential was +25.8. Yes, they technically tied for North titles with Kansas in 2007 and Nebraska in 2008, but make no mistake: they destroyed the North. Kansas was 8-2, but with only a differential of +12.0. Nebraska: +1.4. Colorado: -14.4. Yes, Mizzou has lost a ton of talent, but...25 points' worth per game? 40?

Alright, with that out of the way, let's get started. Today, we look at offense. Tomorrow, defense. For each unit, I'll look at the 2008 unit rankings, try to perceive who has risen or fallen since last year, and come up with rough rankings for this year. And I'm going to try my best to keep my own personal biases out of the equation (for proof, simply look at the QB rankings).

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#11 in the country)
Nebraska (#13)
Kansas (#27)
Kansas State (#65)
Iowa State (#92)
Colorado (#113)

Missouri, ~~Kansas~~ Nebraska and Kansas State lose their starters, leaving Todd Reesing a clear #1. Everybody can agree on that. But what about after that? Austen Arnaud and Cody Hawkins return, but they were ranked very low. Conservatively, let's rank Arnaud and Hawkins #2-3, simply because they are known quantities (in Hawkins' case, too known, I think). Who's #4 among MU's Blaine Gabbert, NU's Zac Lee, and KSU's Carson Coffman (or Grant Gregory)? Taking away the junk time work that Gabbert and Coffman/Gregory have gotten, the only other thing we have to go by is recruiting profile. Gabbert was a 5-star recruit, Lee a 4-star JUCO, Coffman a 2-star, and Gregory a 2-star. I like Coffman, but for this exercise I'm trying to take my own opinions out of the equation for now, simply because I'm biased. So we're going to rely totally on my own numbers and external factors like recruiting rankings. So despite the fact that my list would look different than this, here's what we come up with:

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State

If another picture of Todd Reesing exists, I haven't seen it.

Running Backs

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#16)
Nebraska (#20)
Kansas (#69)
Iowa State (#90)
Colorado (#107)
Kansas State (#119)

The BTBS numbers do NOT like Lamark Brown and Logan Dold, apparently. Anyway, basically everybody returns most key contributors--Derrick Washington, Roy Helu, Jr., Jake Sharp, Alexander Robinson, Darrell Scott/Rodney Stewart, Lamark Brown/Keithen Valentine/Logan Dold (though Dold may have been moved to defense). Therefore, we won't change the rankings much. I could see moving CU ahead of ISU simply because Stewart and Scott were both hurt a bunch, but again...we're trying to deal as much as possible with known quantities.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Kansas State

From the Missourian. D-Wash: good.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Rankings

Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#25)
Nebraska (#27)
Kansas State (#48)
Iowa State (#96)
Colorado (#110)

Well, first things first: CU had one reliable weapon--Josh Smith--and he's gone. So it's safe to say they're staying #6. And with the return of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, KU stays #1. Missouri loses Maclin and Coffman, so they'll fall. Nebraska loses Swift and Peterson, so they'll fall. Iowa State returns everybody, but they don't make up enough ground. Really, I think KSU slides into the #2 spot here with Brandon Banks and Deon Murphy returning. So that leaves Mizzou vs Nebraska for #3.

Career stats for projected top three receivers and top tight end:

Missouri: Danario Alexander (78 catches, 997 yards, 8 TDs), Jared Perry (91 catches, 1148 yards, 7 TDs), Jerrell Jackson (9 catches, 98 yards), Andrew Jones (20 catches, 146 yards). Total = 198 catches, 2389 yards, 15 touchdowns, 12.1 yards per catch, one TD every 13.2 catches).
Nebraska: Menelik Holt (34 catches, 452 yards, 1 TD), Niles Paul (24 catches, 220 yards), Chris Brooks (3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD), Mike McNeill (33 catches, 467 yards, 6 TDs). Total = 94 catches, 1170 yards, 8 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per catch, one TD every 11.8 catches).

The per-catch stats are extremely similar, with a slight advantage to NU, but Mizzou has by far the experience advantage. And if I'm giving Cody Hawkins an experience advantage...well...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa State
Colorado

What If...

Offensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#5)
Kansas State (#20)
Kansas (#25)
Iowa State (#60)
Nebraska (#61)
Colorado (#102)

Offensive line rankings are based on line yards and sack rates (adjusted, as always, for strength of schedule), in case you were wondering. Anyway, Mizzou was a clear #1 in the North last year, and with the return of Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, and Elvis Fisher, and the seeming emergence of Dan Hoch this spring, they will stay #1. K-State's line, led by Nick Stringer and potential stars like Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze, actually looks pretty solid as well. Iowa State returns four OL starters and a good blocking TE in Derrick Catlett--they have the most combined returning starts in the North. Nebraska does have to replace probably their best overall OL (to me, at least) in Lydon Murtha, but their experience level is solid. Colorado's line is full of good recruits, but they were so young, thin, and injury-prone last year that there's no telling what their ceiling is. But they were so far in last place here that they'll stay there.

So pretty much everybody stays in the same order...but what to do with Kansas? They were quite far ahead of ISU and NU, but they return a mere 26 career starts, easily the lowest in the conference as a whole. This could be the offense's Achilles Heel, and with improvement possible from ISU, I'll squeeze KU between the 'Clones and the Huskers.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado

Photo by Andrew Worrall, via The Columns

OFFENSE SUMMARY

Alright, so to get a general, reasonably unscientific way of judging the talent level here, let's simply add everybody's rankings together and see what happens. Lowest number = best, obviously.

Tentative 2009 Offensive Ranking

1T. Missouri (9)
1T. Kansas (9)
3. Iowa State (14)
4T. Nebraska (16)
4T. Kansas State (16)
6. Colorado (20)

I honestly didn't know how the numbers would play out when I started that exercise, but it does make some sense. For all the loss analysts mention when talking about Missouri, it only affects the passing game side of the equation. Missouri still has the division's best running back and best offensive line, and with the right approach and play-calling, those strengths can take a large load off of Blaine Gabbert's shoulders. Plus, Gabbert does have two extremely experienced, relatively proven quantities in Perry and Alexander at WR (assuming they're healthy). I'd still give a slight nod to Kansas overall*, but there is at least some cause for optimism for Mizzou this year.

* This is 90% honesty and a 10% attempt at a jinx of Kansas. Jinx...JINX...NOONAN!

Tomorrow we look at defenses. Does Nebraska have enough of a defensive advantage to make up for a lacking offense?

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Bill C. — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football. Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons. Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers. Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge. Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs. Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility. While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened. And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected. Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen. Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous. Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009. Daniel and Harrell? Gone. Crabtree and Maclin? Almost certainly gone. McCoy, Bradford, Freeman? Possibly gone. Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris? Gone. Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility. So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus. Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion." For '09? "New" Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009. We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009. We'll start with the North Division. To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers. There will certainly be a time and place for that. Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings. And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits. Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy. Plus, you'll probably be wrong. Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Quarterbacks

Kansas (Todd Reesing)
Kansas State (Josh Freeman--for now)
Iowa State (Austen Arnaud)
Missouri (Blaine Gabbert)
Nebraska (Patrick Witt/Zac Lee)
Colorado (Cody Hawkins/Tyler Hansen)

I probably shouldn't stick CU's duo below two relative newcomers at MU and NU, but I just can't help it. And if Josh Freeman is gone and Carson Coffman is next year's starter at KSU, pencil KSU into the #4 or #5 spot. And while either Gabbert or Witt/Lee (Pac Litt?) can or will overtake Arnaud by the end of the season, I couldn't rank two returning starters below QBs who've never taken a meaningful snap.

Running Backs

Missouri (Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore)
Nebraska (Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille)
Kansas (Jake Sharp, Jocques Crawford)
Colorado (Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott)
Iowa State (Alexander Robinson)
Kansas State (Lamark Brown, Logan Dold)

Of all the departures for '09, the running back position actually looks not only solid, but strong. Washington, Helu and Sharp are all relatively proven at this point, and at any moment Stewart and Scott could emerge in a big way. Even Alexander Robinson and Lamark Brown have had their moments this year. This is something to watch for '09--while offenses may not be as high-flying, they still might be pretty darn effective thanks to the ground games.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas (Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier, Johnathan Wilson)
Missouri (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones)
Kansas State (Brandon Banks, Deon Murphy, Aubrey Quarles)
Nebraska (Niles Paul, Menelik Holt, Mike McNeill)
Colorado (Josh Smith, Scotty McKnight, Riar Geer)
Iowa State (Houston Jones, Sedrick Johnson, Derrick Catlett)

Kansas is clearly #1 here, but after that, #2-#5 is something of a crapshoot. I feel like a homer for putting Mizzou at #2, but while they won't have the speed of KSU's unit, they'll still have the speed-size mix that few other teams do. And naturally, I'm assuming Jeremy Maclin is gone. Mizzou is clearly #1 if Maclin returns, but I very much do not see that happening. Paul and Holt could make NU's unit pretty effective, but they haven't gone all the way in proving that just yet.

Offensive Lines

Missouri (OG Kurtis Gregory, C Tim Barnes, OT Elvis Fisher)
Nebraska (C Jacob Hickman, OG Keith Williams, OT Jaivorio Burkes)
Colorado (OT Nate Solder, OT Ryan Miller, OG Devin Head)
Kansas State (OG Brock Unruh, OT Edward Prince, OT Nick Stringer)
Kansas (OT Jeremiah Hatch, OT Jeff Spikes)
Iowa State (OG Reggie Stephens, OT Ben Lamaak, C Alex Alvarez)

Missouri will have by far the highest-upside offensive line in the North next year. That can only help when a) protecting a young QB and b) clearing the way for the North's #1 RB. If Mizzou is to win the North despite having to replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, it's Washington and the nice O-line who will get it done.

After Mizzou, NU's probably got the most upside in this unit. Colorado's fought through youth and injuries this year and could emerge next year with a solid O-line because of the struggles. After that...no idea. KSU returns quite a bit from an iffy-at-best O-line, and KU loses both starting guards and center. Not good. And while I like Reggie Stephens at ISU, he's about all ISU has.

So, keeping this as unscientific as possible, if we assign 6 points for every #1 ranking, 5 for every #2, et cetera, how do the North offenses add up?

North Offenses, 2009

Missouri (20 points)
Kansas (18 points)
Nebraska (15 points)
Kansas State (13 points)
Colorado (10 points)
Iowa State (8 points)

If Josh Freeman goes pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (18)
Nebraska (16)
Kansas State (10)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (9)

If Jeremy Maclin DOESN'T go pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (17)
Nebraska (15)
Kansas State (13)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (8)

I'm obviously not going to take this rather arbitrary ranking system too seriously and say "See? This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Missouri will have the best offense in the North next year!" or anything like that. This does show, though, that each team will have defined strengths and weaknesses (Mizzou = good running, iffy passing; Kansas = good passing, iffy blocking, KSU = good passing, no running, CU = possibly good running, no passing), which means unit-to-unit matchups and home-road scheduling will matter more next year than it has in the last couple of years.

And speaking of those matchups, tomorrow we'll look at North defenses.