SB Nation - Marcus Herford

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm not going to lie. As Mizzou-Kansas ended early Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was that I was going to need help from the BTBS numbers to make sense of everything I just saw. In a game that featured over 1,100 yards of offense, Mizzou's defense made the plays in the last five minutes that won the game. In a game where Danario Alexander and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 29 catches and 475 yards (seriously), it was Andrew Gachkar, Jake Harry, Brian Coulter/Aldon Smith, Derrick Washington and Grant Ressel making the breakthrough plays down the stretch. So many people did so many amazing things ... what do the numbers say about what took place?

The best receiver in the country

	Kansas (39)	Mizzou (41)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	46.6%	46.7%
Leverage %	65.8%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	31.9	33.3
Close Success Rate	50.7%	45.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.44
Close S&P	0.944	0.898

RUSHING
EqPts	5.7	18.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	51.5%
Close PPP	0.35	0.55
Close S&P	0.854	1.066
Line Yards/carry	3.15	3.53

PASSING
EqPts	26.3	15.2
Close Success Rate	50.9%	40.5%
Close PPP	0.46	0.36
Close S&P	0.969	0.766
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.8% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	56.3%	54.0%
PPP	0.36	0.42
S&P	0.927	0.960

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	40.0%	28.0%
PPP	0.58	0.50
S&P	0.977	0.775

TURNOVERS
Number	3	1
Turnover Pts	14.3	4.9
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.4	+9.4

Q1 S&P	1.103	0.952
Q2 S&P	0.976	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.730	1.779
Q4 S&P	0.949	0.456

1st Down S&P	0.838	0.803
2nd Down S&P	0.730	0.888
3rd Down S&P	1.529	1.116

Projected Pt. Margin	-10.8	+10.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

So many things here that I didn't expect to see:

Mizzou's offense was almost nonexistent in Q2 and Q4. Their passing numbers? Only decent, despite Danario Alexander's unbelievable third quarter (7 catches, 181 yards). And they still struggled on passing downs.
Both teams were only decent on 1st and 2nd down, but automatic on 3rd down. KU, especially, had Mizzou's defense on a string on 3rd down ... until their final two, in which Mizzou came up with two game-turning sacks.
Both teams were exactly the same from a Field Position and Leverage standpoint, despite KU starting three drives from inside their 3.
Unsung heroes: Mizzou's offensive line, which allowed one sack and plowed away for over three and a half line yards per carry.

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

I was on Big 12 North Talk Radio Sunday night and was asked about Mizzou's struggling pass defense, and I stammered through an answer about how you probably shouldn't take much away from a rivalry game (after all, Texas A&M gained 530 yards on a dominant Texas defense Thursday night), and how Mizzou's struggles have been caused by different things at different times (no pass rush and poor LB play against KU, poor tackling against Baylor, complete miscommunication against Texas, Carl Gettis' backup getting burned against NU, etc.), but despite that, there's no question that something has been amiss in recent weeks.

Here are Missouri's Passing S&P+ numbers in terms of individual game "+" scores (disregarding Furman). Remember, a) 100 = average, and b) the higher number, the better the performance.

Nevada (193.5)
Colorado (182.3)
Bowling Green (148.9)
Nebraska (109.6)
Oklahoma State (105.4)
Illinois (103.7)
Iowa State (95.6)
Kansas (84.0)
Kansas State (72.9)
Texas (66.8)
Baylor (59.4)

Over the first five games (not counting Furman), Missouri averaged a 132.2. Over the last six, Missouri has averaged a 93.5, and that's with the Colorado outlier. Missouri's five worst games this season all came in the last six weeks (and remember, this is adjusted for opponent, so even if the offenses Mizzou faced improved, that doesn't mean Mizzou's numbers should automatically fall). Meanwhile, Missouri's sack rate has actually improved over that time (from 1.0% on Standard Downs and 8.9% on Passing Downs, to 6.0% on Standard Downs and 9.9% on Passing Downs), actually giving the pass defense numbers a bit of a boost. Obviously the pass rush wasn't great against Kansas, but it's been decent down the stretch.

So what has changed in the last six weeks? For one thing, Carl Gettis got hurt. It was hinted in October and early-November that he hurt himself worse than anybody thought against Nebraska, but while his and Jasper Simmons' injuries absolutely played a role in the Baylor debacle, he's still seemed steady enough that his ankle alone can't explain a 29.2% drop in pass defense. What else has changed? Well, Hardy Ricks was lost for the season. I wouldn't have thought that would have made a difference, but maybe it did? Plus, opponents got film on Simmons and Jarrell Harrison and were probably better able to take advantage of whatever weaknesses they may have. And quite frankly, Kevin Rutland has been maddeningly inconsistent, matching nice pass break-ups with horrible mishaps.

Is there something else I'm missing here? It's not like the scheme has changed. Like it or not, the general philosophy of pass defense is simply not going to change as long as Gary Pinkel is in charge. We are going to run a basic Cover-2, and we're going to give receivers giant cushions and allow the short passes while hoping to tackle well, not get burned deep, and bend just long enough to force a mistake from the opponent. When and how we blitz may change, but in general, we defend the pass as we always have under Pinkel, and that's just the way it is. It's not like opponents suddenly figured out what we were doing and changed their approach halfway through the season. Anyway, I'm all ears. Let me know why you think things have regressed.

No matter what the cause, there's no question that, with opponent taken into account, this pass defense is not as good as in recent years. Whether you want to believe it or not, the opponent had as much to do with last year's regression in raw stats than anything else. Missouri ranked 26th in Defensive Passing S&P+ in 2008 and 17th in 2007, but they rank only 66th this season. Maybe this is just what we should have expected in losing three of four starters in the secondary (and a hit-or-miss pass rush hasn't helped). Or not.

But that's enough negativity. We did, after all, beat Kansas.

Three Positives

Always. Be. Closing. For 55 minutes, the 2008 and 2009 MU-KU games were strikingly similar. For the first half, KU's offense was strong and Mizzou made a series of mistakes, leading to a halftime deficit that could have been a lot worse than it actually was (19-10 in 2008, 21-13 in 2009). Then, Mizzou found their offensive rhythm in the third quarter and stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead (30-26 with 6:52 left in 2008, 36-28 with 13:29 left in 2009). But thanks to some combination of Reesing, Briscoe, and Kerry Meier, KU got the momentum back and, with roughly five minutes left, faced a third down in Mizzou territory.

Here's where things start to diverge. In 2008, Reesing completed a 31-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to Marcus Herford, setting up a go-ahead TD pass to Meier (who forever earned the middle name of "Effing" after this game). Mizzou responded with a go-ahead drive of their own, but as we all know, Reesing and Meier connected again to win the game in the final minute. For the last five minutes, Reesing was 8-for-11 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

For the last five and a half minutes on Saturday, Reesing was 0-for-3 passing with two "sacks" (the second one was considered a rush, not a sack) for a loss of 19 yards. After 55 game minutes of stress and momentum changes, KU faced a third-and-goal from Mizzou's 5, and there was absolutely no reason to think KU wouldn't convert. All game long, if Mizzou blitzed, they got burned; if they dropped into coverage, they eventually got burned. Todd Reesing was able to do whatever he wanted to do. But for the first time all game, Mizzou blitzed effectively. Kevin Rutland came at Reesing on a CB blitz, and while Reesing got away, Andrew Gachkar tracked him down and forced an intentional grounding penalty (and yes, it was a good call, as the pass landed about two yards short of the line of scrimmage). Then, nursing a three-point lead, KU now-notoriously attempted to pass out of their endzone and landed two incompletions before Reesing was sandwiched by Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter. He came within about two inches of getting out of the endzone, and those two inches gave Mizzou two points in a two-point win.

Those two inches took 2009 from a decent season to a good one. Coffee is for closers.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle. How freaking big and fast did Blaine Gabbert look in those first-half keepers?? He had a 30-yarder and a 40-yarder in the first half, and while his arm was scattering some inaccurate passes in the second quarter, his legs kept Mizzou in the game before Danario took over in Q3. This goes without saying, but it really is simply amazing how much different Gabbert looks now than he did about six weeks ago, and if Mizzou has any sort of steady receiving weapon in 2010 (Jerrell Jackson, you've got all the opportunity in the world to show what you can do), I cannot wait to see what #11 might be able to do if/when healthy for an entire season.
Domino Axelrod. Remember when Danario Alexander caught eight passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and was the primary reason Mizzou broke out to a 30-point first-half lead? Yeah, that was his eighth-best game of the season. His output from just the last three games (606 yards) would have led the team in receiving in 2005. His three 200-yard receiving games in November match Mizzou's all-time total of 200-yard receiving games before November. The list of Alexander's superlatives this year top anything Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, etc., ever managed ... and trust me, I know what I just said, and I mean it. As I said during the game, we are never going to see sustained WR play like this again, and we need to soak it in for all it's worth.

Three Negatives

Bad time for the linebackers' worst game of the year. I'm a forgiving soul, and I try to stay even-keeled as much as possible. I'm willing to accept that Todd Reesing was simply in a zone for much of the game, and no matter what Missouri did on defense -- blitz, drop everybody into coverage, etc. -- he was just going to make some plays, as was (obviously) Dez Briscoe. But there was one part of the defensive play that I found completely unacceptable, particularly in the first half: coverage of Jake Sharp (and later on, Rell Lewis) out of the backfield. For three years, Sharp has been a more dangerous receiver than runner, and it was no surprise that Reesing would check down to him whenever possible. And yet we left him wide open with run to room, over and over again. For the game, Sharp/Lewis had nine catches for 120 yards. Seven of Sharp's eight catches came in the first half, and four went for first downs, including an inexcusable 17-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 from KU's 1 that allowed KU to get momentum, eventually scoring a touchdown to cap off a 99-yard drive.

How did the dump to the RBs succeed in ways it hadn't in the previous two games at Arrowhead? Who was to blame for this? Again, I have more questions than answers, but in the Cover-2 structure, the main people responsible would appear to be the outside linebackers and the cornerbacks. Indeed, in previous seasons, it was Sean Weatherspoon and Van Alexander making most of the tackles or defending the pass to the RB. Maybe the strategy changed this year, or maybe the LBs were just overloaded with coverage responsibilities considering how long the coverage lasted (thanks to the lack of a pass rush), but between Sharp's and Lewis' success, and the awful personal foul penalty on Spoon that allowed KU to prolong a drive and get seven points instead of three, and the fact that Gachkar went completely missing until the late-game sack, this did appear to be the worst game of the season for the Mizzou LB corps. We survived, and that's good, but they picked a bad time to have their worst game.
"The Scorpion". Again, all's well that ends well, but do you remember at the beginning of the season, when we thought the "Scorpion" defense (where Mizzou features three DEs in passing downs, lining up Aldon Smith at DT) was going to wreak havoc on most of Missouri's opponents? That didn't so much happen. Missouri now ranks 84th in Sack Rates+ this season, and even though things have improved in general over the last half of the season (again, while the overall pass defense was regressing), the pass rush produced almost nothing whatsoever for the game's first 55 minutes on Saturday. That's not a good thing when your general defensive strategy is to blitz as little as possible, drop a ton of defenders into coverage, and hope your pass rush gets to Reesing before somebody comes open. Reesing had a ton of time to find receivers, and his receivers are good enough that they're going to break open eventually. This was like playing Missouri in 2007, and honestly, Reesing looked better for most of Saturday than Chase Daniel did in 2007 when facing the same strategy.

Considering the mid-season improvement, and considering the overall youth of the defensive line (only Jaron Baston and Brian Coulter leave this season, and a majority of the team's DL playmakers return), I'm still guardedly optimistic about this unit in the future, especially considering how well Mizzou stopped the run in conference play, but for the season the pass rush has still been a major disappointment.
The two-point conversion. When Mizzou scored early in the third quarter to get to 21-19, I told my dad to brace himself -- with Gary Pinkel's history with the two-point conversion, there was absolutely a 100% chance that we were going for two, even though it was still early, and there were obviously a ton more points yet to be scored. It's not right, but it's what he does. And being that it's a consistent mind-set, I can more-or-less accept it even though I disagree with the strategy. But man oh man, that one point could have made a huge difference.

(And if you insist on going for two, and you've had to blow a timeout early in the half to figure out what play to call, at least make sure to not call the single most predictable play of the game after the timeout. Those five minutes, which included the decision to go for two, the blown timeout, and the awful play call, were the worst-coached five minutes of the game for Mizzou.)

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

In the end, KU's 40% success rate on passing downs was neither great nor terrible. But the plays they did make on passing downs were gigantic. The 3rd-and-11 dump-off to Sharp that set up the game's first touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Tim Biere on 3rd-and-18 that set up the second touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-9 that set up the third touchdown. And of course, the 74-yard TD bomb to Briscoe on 3rd-and-12 in the fourth quarter. On almost every KU scoring drive, Mizzou had the Jayhawks on the ropes and let them off the hook, and while Reesing deserves quite a bit of credit for the role he played in those passes, that many breakdowns is still inexcusable, and it almost cost Missouri the game.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

Rarely will I nail a game key this tremendously, but for the first 55 minutes, this game was absolutely decided by these two players. Back and forth they went, with Briscoe winning the first two quarters, Alexander almost scoring a TKO in the third quarter, and Briscoe bouncing back in the fourth. For the game, Alexander had more catches (15 to 14) and Briscoe had more yards (242 to 233), but Briscoe's two fumbles and the two miscues to Briscoe on KU's final drive give Danario the edge here. But what a freaking battle it was.

MU's Running Game

[I]f Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Again, nailed it. While Briscoe and Alexander more or less canceled each other out, thanks to Meier and Sharp, KU won the battle of the passing games. But Mizzou won the war because of Derrick Washington and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert took advantage of openings in the first half and ended up with 94 yards rushing for the game; meanwhile, Washington was the finisher, closing with 111 yards and setting up Grant Ressel's game-winner with a wonderful 27-yard run on 3rd-and-2. Throw in Jerrell Jackson's 37-yard end around for a TD, and Mizzou's running game came up bigger than it had all year. Just in time to give us extreme optimism for 2010, huh?

Summary

While at home yesterday, I watched the replay of the game on ESPNU, and it really is amazing how many times the momentum turned and, over the course of the game, how many players made contributions to this win. Blaine Gabbert with his first-half rushes and great decision-making in the second half. Jacquies Smith with the forced fumble of Briscoe, and Carl Gettis for a forced fumble and two recoveries. Danario Alexander with his third quarter for the ages. Wes Kemp with his killer down-field blocking. Jerrell Jackson with his end-around (and De'Vion Moore with his amazing blocking on the play). Kip Edwards with his interception of Reesing, ensuring a one-possession deficit at halftime. Derrick Washington with his devastating second-half rushing. Andrew Gachkar with his fourth-quarter sack. Kevin Rutland with his fantastic man-to-man defense on the bomb to Briscoe on KU's final drive. Coulter and Agent Smith for their safety. Jake Harry for getting THREE punts downed inside the 3. Grant Ressel for capping off the most improbably great kicking season ever with a ride on the shoulders of his teammates. Despite all the breakdowns and all the stress the game's first 55 minutes produced, Mizzou made every play when the game was on the line, and they came away with one of the more satisfying, endearing wins of the Pinkel era. We now await the bowl announcement, knowing that a) Missouri will finish no worse than they did in 2006 (Chase Daniel's sophomore season), and b) Todd Reesing's career ended in the same endzone in which KU's national title hopes ended two seasons ago. There's poetry, and then there's poetry.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

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Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an offense that actually improved from 2007 to 2008. How about the defense? Was the biggest difference between 2007 and 2008 simply the schedule? Was the 2007 schedule really that easy (or the 2008 schedule that hard)?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.9 (#30)
Success Rate+: 113.9 (#19)
PPP+: 109.7 (#45)

Standard Downs S&P+: 107.2 (#41)
Passing Downs S&P+: 113.5 (#35)

Redzone S&P+: 106.4 (#46)

Q1 S&P+: 108.9 (#40)
Q2 S&P+: 126.2 (#15)
Q3 S&P+: 100.0 (#54)
Q4 S&P+: 10.42 (#49)

1st Down S&P+: 108.0 (#43)
2nd Down S&P+: 109.7 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 112.3 (#40)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 111.1 (#38)
Rushing SR+: 118.7 (#18)
Rushing PPP+: 102.0 (#61)

Standard Downs: 107.5 (#42)
Passing Downs: 95.7 (#68)

Redzone: 110.0 (#39)

Line Yards+: 109.2 (#31)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 113.3 (#27)
Passing SR+: 110.8 (#21)
Passing PPP+: 116.0 (#26)

Standard Downs: 109.4 (#30)
Passing Downs: 119.5 (#24)

Redzone: 107.5 (#41)

Sack Rate+: 88.7 (#77)

So let's play the same game we played yesterday--the 2007 vs 2008 game.

S&P+: #12 in 2007, #30 in 2008
Success Rate+: #13 in 2007, #19 in 2008
PPP+: #14 in 2007, #45 in 2008
Rushing S&P+: #8 in 2007, #38 in 2008
Passing S&P+: #20 in 2007, #27 in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: #12 in 2007, #41 in 2008
Passing Downs S&P+: #6 in 2007, #35 in 2008
Line Yards+: #12 in 2007, #31 in 2008

Ahh, so it wasn't just the schedule that made a four-game difference in the loss column. While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

Meanwhile, with so much returning experience in 2008 and a seemingly rock solid secondary, I can't really explain the significant regression in PPP+. KU allowed a ton more big plays, particularly in the running game, so we'll pin the blame mostly on the D-line and a linebacker corps that didn't achieve nearly as much as it should have with three solid players in Joe Mortensen, Mike Rivera, and James Holt. We'll also point out that Defensive Coordinator Bill Young left for Miami after 2007, and that might have made a bigger difference than anything else.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #49 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Caleb Blakesley (6'5, 292, Sr.)
DE Jake Laptad (6'4, 258, Jr.)
DT Jamal Greene (6'4, 303, Jr.)
DE Jeff Wheeler (6'7, 260, Sr.)
DT Richard Johnson (6'2, 280, So.)
DE Quintin Woods (6'5, 230, Jr.)
DE Maxwell Onyegbule (6'5, 257, Sr.)
DT Darius Parish (6'4, 341, So.)

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #57 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Arist Wright (6'0, 226, Sr.)
Dakota Lewis (6'1, 209, Jr.)
Jake Schermer (6'2, 222, Sr.)
Angus Quigley (6'2, 226, Sr.)
Justin Springer (6'4, 242, Jr.)
Drew Dudley (6'2, 232, Jr.)
Steven Johnson (6'2, 225, So.)

When we say that KU lost all three starting linebackers from 2008, that's a smidge of an exaggeration. When Holt was moved around to generate a pass rush, Arist Wright stepped in. Still, though, Wright was only 10th on the team in tackles and managed only ten "successful" tackles (i.e. tackles that prevented a successful play) all year, two against the pass and eight against the run. The other three LBs with any experience at all combined for just 5.5 successful tackles (two against the pass, 3.5 against the run).

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

Of course, Missouri doesn't play them for quite a while, so the team we're talking about now will change significantly, for better or worse, between now and then. Probably shouldn't spend a ton of time figuring everything out, eh?

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Darrell Stuckey (6'1, 205, Sr.)
CB Justin Thornton (6'1, 213, Sr.)
S Phillip Strozier (6'0, 200, Jr.)
CB Daymond Patterson (5'9, 175, So.)
S Chris Harris (6'0, 185, Jr.)
CB Anthony Davis (6'0, 192, So.)
CB Corrigan Powell (5'10, 171, So.)
S Olaitan Oguntodu (6'0, 220, Jr.)

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. He is an all-conference favorite heading into the season, and with good reason. In 2008, he put together 4.5 TFL, 5 INT, 7 passes broken-up, 2 FF, 1 FR. Plus, he managed a very healthy 23.5 successful tackles against the run, one of the highest run-support totals in the country (13th overall). He's a stud.

Beyond that, Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #81 Net Punting, #26 Punt Returns, #118 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Jacob Branstetter (5'10, 182, Jr.) - 51-for-52 PAT, 9-for-12 FG (Long: 34)
P Alonso Rojas (6'3, 220, Jr.) - 58 Punts, 33.9 Net
KR Dezmon Briscoe (6'3, 200, Jr.) - 8 returns, 27.4 Avg
PR Daymond Patterson (5'9, 175, So.) - 22 Returns, 11.0 Avg, 1 TD

Rarely is there a more stark regression than what Kansas suffered in the kick return game last year. KU ranked 7th in the country in kick returns in 2007, then fell 111 spots to 118th in 2008. What made it strange was that, it was the same main return man (Marcus Herford) both years. KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.

If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Summary

After seeing a pretty solid across-the-board drop in 2008, it's hard to see where KU's baseline is with a potentially great secondary and serious question marks among the front seven. The linebacker corps returns almost no quality experience, and while experience isn't a problem on the defensive line, playmaking is. KU needs to be able to limit the big run plays and generate a pass rush if they're going to fully utilize the strong secondary, and it's not a given that they can do that. Everybody in the North has question marks, so while KU's no different in that regard...KU's no different in that regard. With a South schedule that screams 0-3, they really do need to be better than everybody else in the North if they want to win the division this year, and with the holes at offensive line and in the defensive front seven, it's hard to claim they are at this moment. I've been talking up KU all offseason (not in a "Hey, gosh, you're alright, KU!" kind of way, but in a "We better start accepting that they're probably going to win the North" kind of way), but the more I read and talk about them, the less sure of them I am.

---

Projections on Friday.

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

An Underrated Problem: Kickoff Returner

rockchalk — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:00:14 -0000

View full size photo »

Coming into this season, there seems to be two primary problems that preseason magazines are focusing on: interior line play and linebackers. This makes sense, of course, as we lost all 6 starters in those two positions. However, there are more than just two potential holes on this team. This week, we'll be documenting all of these "mini-issues", if you will, with today's topic being kick returner.

Why It's a (Potential) Problem

Because field position matters, man. This may seem superfluous as a real "problem", and it probably is. Still, it helps to have a shorter distance to go. Always. Particularly in our offense, where we love nickel-and-diming our way down the field. It makes the offense's job that much easier if, say, we are starting at the 32 every time out, as opposed to the 22.

If you need evidence, just check out the differences between 2007 and 2008. Obviously, much more important things changed between the two seasons, most notably personnel and schedule, but there was also a significant difference in kickoff return yardage. In 2007, the Jayhawks averaged 25.2 yards a return, good enough to rank 7th in the country. Marcus Herford received plenty of accolades for this, and was even the number-one ranked kick returner in the country going into 2008 according to Phil Steele. But he didn't play up to such a high ranking, as we fell all the way to (you won't believe this) 118th in the country. The average kickoff return fell down to 17.5 yards a return, and only Wisconsin was more anemic in returning kickoffs.

And keep in mind, that fantastic finish in 2008 is buoyed by the absolutely fantastic game Dez Briscoe had in Arrowhead against Missouri; 7 returns for an average of 27.9 yards per return. So, Herford's personal numbers are even worse.*

* Now, I don't want to get into the differences between the two years, or why Herford performed so fantastically one season then so putridly the next. I don't really know, but my guess would be the classic small sample size reason. Given how little chances they get, kickoff returners are probably more volatile to small sample size flukes than, say, a running back piling up 30 carries a game. For you baseball fans out there, think of it like some of the sabermetric defensivie stats, like UZR. One year a fielder can be incredible, and the next he can be bad. Likely, said fielder is somewhere in between, but in small doses weird stuff can happen. This was probably the case here, not getting into discussions about the difference in blockers and such.

Subsequently, our offensive production substantially dropped, from nearly 43 points a game in 2007 (2nd in the country) to "only" a little more than 33 points a contest in '08 (28th). Again, it's almost unfair to compare the two seasons there is such a huge difference, but it assuredly had some type of impact.

Here's a nice, cute little table that tells you everything you need to know in a half-second glance:

	Yards per kickoff return	Points per game
2007	25.2	43
2008	17.5	33

It makes a difference, people. So, while it isn't like we're replacing vintage Dante Hall back there, it would still be nice to get a good 'replacement'. And no, Dezmon Briscoe doesn't count as an option.

The Potential Solutions

Man, this is tough. Obviously, if there was no such thing as an injury risk, it would be an easy decision. Dez Briscoe, go back there, have fun, continue dominating, and have fun in the NFL next year.

Beyond him, though, it's a whole mess of names. Daymond Patterson probably has the punt returner job down, but kickoff returner requires more straight-line speed, as opposed to the joystick qualities of a DP. I mean, he could do it, but he probably isn't your first choice. So, I'm just going off of the Spring Game, really. I kind of cop out listing 'The Field' as the last option, but I don't want to just throw out random ones. So, I didn't. If you wanna throw one out, though...I'm all ears.

The list of names after the break.

Dezmon Briscoe (Jr.)

I'm including him, well, because he could do it the best. Depending on the situation, don't be surprised - at all - if he is returning at least a couple of kicks this fall. I'm sure he'll return them well, too. But, and maybe I'm wrong on this one, but I don't see him consistently lining up back there. It just doesn't make too much sense; while kickoff returns and field position are important things, yes, I'd rather have (arguably) the conference's best wide receiver not getting hurt returning kicks.

How often Mangino uses Dez to return the kicks is the wild card of this whole scenario. He could go multiple ways with this one, anywhere from installing Briscoe as the primary returner and sending him out there nearly every time all of the way to only returning when absolutely necessary. Ideally, you can find a returner equally as good, or at least similarly talented, so that Dez can save up energy for wide receiver.

And yes, I realize that this section has been entirely unhelpful. I'm sorry. I'm not Mangino, and I have no idea just how he is planning on using Briscoe in the kicking game. It's certainly fun to talk about, though.

Darrell Stuckey (Sr.)

Just like Briscoe, I highly doubt that we are seeing Stuckey return kickoffs any time soon. Given the choice, I'd prefer Briscoe to return the kicks, ability and everything else being equal - we have quite a few weapons on offense if worse were to come to worse with Dez, but on defense we are woefully short on proven commodities. And, considering that Dez has proven in real game action that he is capable of excelling at such duties, while Stuckey hasn't returned one before, probably means that Briscoe is the better returner.

So, hopefully we won't see #25 back there. Let's just put it that way. Unless, of course, he's awesome. Then, you still probably won't see him.

Isiah Barfield (rsSoph.)

He received the brunt of the work in the Spring Game, along with Darrell Stuckey, so he has to go on here. Really, given the star quality of the other two players, he has to be the odds-on favorite. At least to receive the majority of the kickoffs. The non-essential ones. Barfield's once-promising future at cornerback is pretty much done, now, given the fact he's been moved over to wide receiver. If you wanted a quote to sum up the quick descension:

Played in the first four games of the season, but did not play again until the bowl game against Minnesota...

And yes, he started the third and fourth games of the season (@ South Florida and vs. Sam Houston State). He wasn't the hyped recruit that Marcus Herford was coming into college, but like Marcus he may have to form a niche as a kick return specialist to see the field consistently. Barfield's smaller than Herford, which is probably a good thing; the biggest problem with Herford seemed to be a complete inability to move laterally. He either had a seam and ran through it, or simply ran into an oncoming tackler around the 18. There isn't any video of Barfield returning kicks, but he can't be worse than last year.

Right?

The Field

I thought about putting names here, but really I'd just be pulling them out of my ass. When fall practice starts in a month-or-so, we can try and figure out who is getting practice reps. Until then, we'll leave the guessing alone. We do know that all three of the above names should at least contend for the job, and we should probably be fairly certain that any combination will do better than last year's dreadful performance.

But, I wouldn't bet against the Field on this one, either. There are a handful of guys who are buried on the depth chart but could probably do a halfway decent job here. So, yeah, don't write anybody off, really.

Except Todd. It's probably fairly certain he isn't running back there. Or anyone who has 'line' or 'backer' after their name. Besides that, though. Anything is possible.

So, The Solution Is...

To Be Decided.

Seriously, I almost didn't do this one because there are so few answers. If the Spring Game is any indication, then it will probably be Isiah Barfield, with Dezmon Briscoe or Darrell Stuckey coming in for the most intense games/situations.

Most likely, Briscoe will end up back there more often than I want him there, necessarily. Or more often than I seem to lead on here. He shouldn't be the guy stepping back there in the 4th quarter against Northern Colorado, but if it's close down in El Paso, he'll be back there. As long as he can handle it, and there is enough finger-crossing on the sidelines, I suppose it'd be the best move. It just freaks me out.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:03:46 -0000

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
68.8%		% Close	52.5%
49.7%	50.3%	Field Position %	55.1%	44.9%
71.3%	65.9%	Leverage %	76.8%	68.5%

		Total
795	780	Plays	762	826
313.43	292.05	EqPts	392.41	265.57
47.6%	41.8%	Success Rate	56.8%	42.1%
0.39	0.37	PPP	0.51	0.32
0.870	0.792	S&P	1.083	0.743

		Close Games
528	555	Plays	453.	381
218.59	212.79	EqPts	228.79	119.84
47.9%	43.1%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.8%
0.41	0.38	PPP	0.51	0.31
0.893	0.814	S&P	1.081	0.742

		Rushing
115.92	105.62	EqPts	145.56	91.46
49.4%	39.4%	Success Rate	52.0%	40.6%
0.33	0.33	PPP	0.46	0.25
0.820	0.728	S&P	0.977	0.659
3.35	2.71	Line Yds/carry	3.13	2.73

		Passing
197.51	186.44	EqPts	246.84	174.12
46.0%	43.4%	Success Rate	60.3%	43.3%
0.45	0.40	PPP	0.56	0.38
0.910	0.837	S&P	1.160	0.809
5.9%	4.3%	Sack Rate	2.2%	5.4%

		Non-Passing Downs
51.7%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	47.1%
0.38	0.37	PPP	0.55	0.32
0.895	0.831	S&P	1.162	0.794
5.3%	3.9%	Sack Rate	1.6%	4.1%
53.8%	50.4%	Run Rate	47.9%	52.8%

		Passing Downs
37.4%	33.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	31.6%
0.43	0.39	PPP	0.41	0.32
0.807	0.720	S&P	0.830	0.636
6.8%	4.8%	Sack Rate	3.6%	7.1%
23.4%	23.5%	Run Rate	23.5%	26.7%

		Turnovers
19	21	Total	17	19
43.19	61.28	Points Lost	48.11	45.63
46.04	50.30	Points Given	34.23	71.73
89.23	111.58	Total T/O Pts	82.34	117.36
+22.35	-22.35	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+35.02	-35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

The first thing I notice on this large box score is just how average KU has been in a lot of areas. I'm still living a bit off of the KU '07 aura, I guess. But whereas MU is +0.339 in close-game S&P, KU is only +0.078. When they've been beaten, more often than not, they've been drubbed.
That said, their running game really has improved recently. Jake Sharp is not necessarily a big-play threat, but he's quite solid, and KU's 3.35 line yards per carry are much better than I thought they'd manage at the beginning of the season. Also, KU's 49.4% success rate running the ball opens up an avenue of ball control success for them. Their big-play potential (i.e. PPP) is pretty crappy, but they can potentially move the chains a bit.
Meanwhile, Mizzou's running game has the big-play threat that KU's lacks. Their 0.46 PPP rushing is over one-third better than KU's. They've been outstanding at preventing the big rushing play as well. It's a huge advantage to MU if KU can't manage at least a few healthy chunks of yards on the ground.
Next window of opportunity for Mizzou: sack rates. KU allows a few too many, and MU is pretty decent at racking them up. If there is no big-play threat from the running game, Mizzou's rush ends (Stryker Sulak, Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter) could have Todd Reesing running for his life. Reesing's a crafty SOB, and he can create the occasional out-of-nothing play...but he can only do that so many times.
Both teams have managed positive turnover point differentials, and while Mizzou's is higher, it's only by about a point a game.

On to the situational stats...

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
		Q1
51.1%	44.4%	Success Rate	57.9%	46.9%
0.39	0.35	PPP	0.53	0.28
0.903	0.794	S&P	1.110	0.751

		Q2
46.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	59.0%	40.1%
0.39	0.33	PPP	0.51	0.27
0.858	0.732	S&P	1.100	0.673

		Q3
40.1%	41.5%	Success Rate	55.8%	41.6%
0.43	0.44	PPP	0.55	0.35
0.832	0.855	S&P	1.107	0.770

		Q4
51.5%	41.7%	Success Rate	53.9%	40.8%
0.37	0.38	PPP	0.47	0.38
0.882	0.792	S&P	1.004	0.784

		1st Downs
49.0%	43.7%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.9%
0.40	0.38	PPP	0.53	0.32
0.892	0.814	S&P	1.103	0.753

		2nd Downs
45.3%	39.2%	Success Rate	57.9%	40.6%
0.34	0.38	PPP	0.48	0.33
0.796	0.770	S&P	1.061	0.731

		3rd Downs
48.4%	41.1%	Success Rate	54.3%	41.1%
0.38	0.32	PPP	0.56	0.27
0.866	0.728	S&P	1.107	0.679

KU's offense gets progressively worse as the game advances (for the first three quarters, anyway). Their success rate falls from a solid 51.1% in Q1 to a 46.4% in Q2, and to a 40.1% in Q3. Keep this in mind. As I said above, KU's running game has some grind-it-out potential, but without the big play it's only a matter of time before grind-it-out stops working. Mizzou's bend-don't-break defense will get a stop more often than not--you can't expect an 18-play drive. And as they slowly put the clamps on the run, the passing yards will get harder to come by as well.
Meanwhile, the KU defense gets better as a half progresses. They're better in Q2 than Q1 and better in Q4 than Q3. Overall, Q3 is their weakest quarter.
KU's good at coming up with 3rd-down stops, though, so first-down yardage could be key for Mizzou.
Sheesh. Mizzou's offensive numbers are staggeringly consistent down-to-down and quarter-to-quarter. That's ridiculous.
It appears that the best time for KU to strike will be in Q1. Mizzou doesn't give up big plays, but they allow a pretty healthy success rate. Expect KU to have some success early on, but as long as Mizzou doesn't allow an easy score or two early, they should have a strong window opportunity to seize the game in Q2 and Q3.

'+' Rankings

This is just a quick refresher from Monday's BTBS Rankings/Projections post. The following numbers are conference-only stats.

KU & MU '+' figures and conference ranking
Category	KU Off.	KU Def.	MU Off.	MU Def.
Success Rates+	103.3 (#6)	103.8 (#5)	117.3 (#2)	102.2 (#6)
PPP+	95.2 (#7)	100.0 (#8)	115.5 (#5)	109.3 (#5)
S&P+	99.2 (#7)	102.0 (#9)	116.5 (#2)	105.4 (#3)
Rushing S&P+	106.0 (#5)	104.4 (#7)	116.2 (#1)	111.8 (#2)
Passing S&P+	94.4 (#7)	101.5 (#7)	113.7 (#5)	101.1 (#8)
Close-Game S&P+	102.2 (#7)	102.9 (#6)	109.1 (#5)	109.1 (#3)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+	100.1 (#7)	103.6 (#6)	118.0 (#1)	107.1 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+	96.4 (#8)	97.2 (#8)	105.2 (#6)	96.9 (#9)
Redzone S&P+	113.4 (#2)	97.8 (#8)	107.7 (#5)	108.5 (#4)

Keep KU of the redzone, as they're pretty automatic once they get that far. Otherwise, as far as explosive Big 12 offenses go, they're pretty mediocre across the board.
The one advantage they have in comparison to Mizzou's defensive numbers comes in the Success Rate figures. As I mentioned earlier, they probably won't be able to generate many huge plays, but they can potentially work the clock and keep the Mizzou offense off the field somewhat.
Meanwhile, the line of thought from Mizzou's players and coaches this week has been that, while KU's defensive numbers aren't amazing, that has to do with all the good offenses they've played against. That's partially true, but as the '+' numbers suggest, this is still an average to above-average defense at best. And like the offense, they're not particularly great at any one thing.

Key Players: Kansas

RB Jake Sharp

He's hurt, but he's still by far KU's best and most consistent back, particularly between the tackles. If he can't go, the onus falls onto disappointing JUCO transfer Jocques Crawford, and I think that spells doom for KU. If KU's going to win, it's because Sharp was able to get some tough yards and take the pressure off of Todd Reesing.

WR Kerry Meier

He's also hurt. But here's the deal: a team has to have a secondary receiving threat to move the ball on Mizzou. Dezmon Briscoe is outstanding, and he'll probably get some yards, but he'll be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment™, and somebody else will have to step up on key plays. Meier has 73 catches and Briscoe has 69; after those two, the production falls considerably to Johnathan Wilson (38 catches). Wilson could be something of a secret weapon, but if KU's going to win, chances are it's because Meier had 4-5 third-down catches.

LB James Holt

While KU's defense hasn't performed as well as it did last year overall, and while fellow LBs Joe Mortensen and Mike Rivera have been solid but not spectacular, James Holt's play has been outstanding. He leads KU with 14.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and six forced fumbles. He plays well in pass coverage, he plays well close to the line, he blitzes well, and he was also the best defensive player on the field the last time Mizzou and Kansas played at Arrowhead. If KU's going to win, it's because they were coming up with third-down stops...and Holt was probably the guy making them.

K Jacob Branstetter

Last year at Arrowhead, KU kicker Scott Webb missed two first-half FGs and prevented the Jayhawks from getting any momentum whatsoever until the the scoring margin was too big to make up. He makes those two kicks, and it's a completely different ballgame down the stretch. Branstetter has been fine in the kicking game this year, but he hasn't been asked to do much--he's just 2-for-4 in conference play. If KU's going to win, Branstetter will not be able to take points off the board with shaky play.

Even if Branstetter isn't asked to do much, this spot on the Key Players list signifies special teams as a whole--if Marcus Herford can bust a big return, or if Branstetter makes a big kick, or if anything really good happens to KU in the special teams game, the outlook of the game as a whole could change instantly.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

In two starts against Kansas, Chase Daniel is 66-for-87 (76%) for 719 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. Insane. From a completions and yards perspective, Daniel is even better this year than he was in 2006 or 2007, so in theory that means his numbers will be better this year, right?

Well, if they are, KU will get absolutely smoked. Kansas would like nothing more than to finally get to Daniel, and they better figure out how...fast.

FS William Moore

Willy Mo finally began playing like Willy Mo 2007 two weeks ago in Ames. No other player on Mizzou's defense can demoralize an opposing offense in a millisecond like Moore, and honestly...he's always the key player on the Mizzou defense.

LB Brock Christopher, DTs Ziggy Hood & Jaron Baston

While KU has somewhat forgotten how to pass block in recent weeks, their run blocking has gotten much better in conference play. Against OU, they had a ton of success running the ball because OU had a new middle linebacker, and the interior of KU's line took advantage. If the middle triangle of Mizzou's defense--Christopher, Hood, Baston--thrives, the game's over. Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford don't have the jets to consistently succeed running outside. They're going to have to be able to move the chains running between the tackles, and if they can't, it's open season on Todd Reesing.

William Clarke Quantrill

Quite simply, the main reason KU has a shot to win this game is because it's the Border War, and weird things happen. Just ask Brad Smith. Or Paul Pierce. Mizzou players and coaches have done a very convincing job this week of saying the right things--KU has a great team, this is a big game, we're not focused on the Big 12 title game, etc. Mizzou has the better team in this game, and if they come out with Quantrill fire to match KU's Jennison rage, they win this game.

Summary & Prediction

Things to pay attention to early in Saturday's game: 1) if KU is struggling to create holes for Jake Sharp, that's very bad for KU; 2) if KU can't generate any Q1 offense (like last year), that's very bad for KU; 3) if MU is only getting 2-4 yards on first down instead of 5-7, that's potentially bad for MU; 4) if Chase Daniel isn't knocked off his feet in Q1 (not even by a sack--just by any pressure of any kind), it's very bad for KU.

Oh yeah, and 5) if Jeremy Maclin is running free in the KU secondary (or on kick returns), it's very very bad for KU.

My Monday BTBS projections predicted a 34-25 win for Mizzou. That sounds about right. Mizzou has a special teams advantage, plus the slightest of edges in turnover margin. My gut is saying this will be about a 38-17 win for Mizzou. So in the end, we'll say that after an even Q1, Mizzou makes a move some time in Q2 and Q3 and withstands the Reesing Surge in Q4. Mizzou 35, Kansas 21.

If KU is able to work the clock and come up with some third-down stops, then this game can shift into "Rivalry Game--throw out the records/stats" mode, which would be very bad for Mizzou. But if stats and talent matter, Mizzou has a healthy edge. There are a lot more avenues to success for Missouri, and in the end they will likely win comfortably.

Press Conference Quotes...11.11.08

Denverjhawk — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 23:51:59 -0000

Highlights from today's press conference w/Coach Mangino and KU Players...

Head Coach Mark Mangino

Opening remarks:

“Looking back on last week, Nebraska made more plays than we did to win the game. We had opportunities and didn’t always capitalize. We didn’t make stops when we needed to make stops. We have got to improve our tackling. We have got to play a lot more sound in our inside run game. There were a few bright spots. Dezmon Briscoe had a big day and looked really good. Todd Reesing had a good day, although his numbers didn’t show that he did. James Holt is really playing good defense for us right now.”

“This week we have Texas, who is a very good, ranked, top-five program. They have a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Defensively they are very stout. They are only allowing 86 yards per game rushing. They have a very athletic defensive line with very quick, athletic guys who can move around. Their linebackers seem to be the heart of their defense. They are an outstanding group of linebackers. Their secondary is very athletic as always.”

“On the offensive side of the ball they run the ball with a number of different tailbacks. Their big playmaker is obviously Colt McCoy at quarterback, both running and throwing the football. He has a bunch of excellent receivers to throw to, led by Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby. Shipley is also a very dangerous player on special teams.”

“It is a very good Texas team that is coming here and we are planning on having a good week of preparation and getting ready to play them. It is an opportunity for us to play a top-five team here at home and we want to play well.”

More Coach and Player Quotes after the Jump...

Coach Mangino Cont.

On this year’s senior class:

“This is a senior class that has several fifth-year players and some kids that have played a lot of snaps. They have been through some really good times and have had to fight through some times. We see them as a group of kids who have been here and weathered some storms and have had some really big highs. We expect that they will continue to compete and fight here until the end.”

On Dezmon Briscoe:

“Dez is playing good football. Each and every week he seems to get better. He does a good job of understanding the defense. He knows where the holes are, he understands the coverages and we are really getting the ball to him quite a bit. He is finding holes in zones and leveraging man coverage pretty well. This is only his second year with us, but he is really getting better all the time.”

Junior Quarterback Todd Reesing

On playing Texas:

“I grew up in Austin, obviously watching the Horns. My dad went to UT. So I would be lying if I told you it wasn’t a little bit bigger for me. You got to try to not make it as big to yourself, but it is going to be fun. I grew up watching Texas and cheering for them, so now that I am playing against them it will be a lot of fun.”

On the Big 12 North Race:

“At this point things haven’t gone the way we would have liked them to. Last week obviously was a big game for us in terms of stepping up and playing for the Big 12 North, but that is obviously out of our hands at this point. This week we just have to go out there and play our best. We are playing a very good Texas team that is ranked real high and it one of the best teams in the nation. They are coming to our place on senior day and it is the last time for our seniors to go out there and play in front of our home crowd. We are going to lay it all out on the line and see if we can get a win and the upset.”

On the current senior class’s home success:

“You always want to send your seniors out with a win and that is why senior day is such a big deal. It is the last time you get to play at Memorial Stadium. It is going to be a crowded house and I know that everyone is going to be excited and have a positive attitude this week. We are just going to practice hard, get ready, and try to bounce back.

Senior Linebacker James Holt

On what senior day means:

“There is a lot of history in that stadium. I will always remember the first game that I played in it. It will mean a lot to all of the seniors and hopefully we can play a good game and just leave it all out there and give the people a good show.”

On getting a signature win for the year:

“Definitely with it being senior day and getting to go against No. 4 ranked Texas, a real powerhouse team, would be great to go out and pull an upset that would be a tremendous statement for the senior class.”

Junior Cornerback Justin Thornton

On helping the younger cornerbacks believe in themselves:

“A lot of guys came in knowing that they could compete and play. After being at practice with them all year we know that they can play and we are taking it upon ourselves to keep beating it into their heads that they can play at this level and they are here for a reason.”

On James Holt:

“Moving him around has been a great thing for us. He gives us the chance to blitz from different angles and play different coverages from different spots. He is great around the ball and he just gets the job done. He is a great athlete. If you get him matched up against bigger, slower guys he will beat them with speed. He isn’t the biggest or heaviest guy, but he plays hard and has a nose for the ball.”

Junior Safety Darrell Stuckey

On his thoughts of playing Texas this week:

“It’s one of those games that you go into where you have to do everything right. You have to execute every play and can’t have a lot of mental mistakes, because they will exploit them and take advantage of them. Texas is one of those teams that builds on what they can do to put themselves in a position to move forward. Our best opportunity is to do the same thing and go out there and focus on what we are doing right, focus on making our plays and executing on our side of the ball.”

Senior Defensive End John Larson

On playing in his last home game as a Jayhawk:

“You walk around and everything’s starting to look a little different, knowing that you aren’t going to get on that field again. I think the whole senior class is really looking forward to this weekend.”

Sophomore Wide Receiver Dezmon Briscoe

On his record-breaking year at receiver for Kansas:

“It’s a blessing, I haven’t really paid much attention to it though. I usually find out from the media.”

On the key to his improvement over last year:

“My work ethic has always been good, but I came into this season with a little more of a chip on my shoulder, knowing that we need to build on what we did last season. Film time and coming in and watching the opponents by myself or with some of the veterans on the team. They have helped me how to read a zone and how to beat man coverage.”

Senior Defensive End Russell Brorsen

On why he chose to play at Kansas:

“Coming out of high school I didn’t really have a lot of options. This was my best option by far, because it gave me a chance to play in the Big 12 and that’s why I came here.”

On what being named to the Lott Trophy watch list means to him:

“I feel that it was an achievement, I think there were 40 players on it. I think being named to a watch list shows that you have done a little bit in the college football world.”

NOTES...

FINAL HOME GAME FOR 18 SENIORS -- The Texas game will be the final home contest for 18 Kansas seniors, including DE Richard Alspaugh, S Tang Bacheyie, DE Russell Brorsen, WR Micah Brown, WR Raymond Brown, OC Ryan Cantrell, OT Matt Darton, WR Dexton Fields, WR Gary Green, CB Kendrick Harper, OG Chet Hartley, WR Marcus Herford, LB James Holt, DE John Larson, OG Adrian Mayes, LB Joe Mortensen, S Patrick Resby, and LB Mike Rivera.

THE LAST FOUR YEARS -- In the last four years, this senior group has been a part of some special things in Kansas football history. Among the numerous highlights are:

• Combined 31-16 record with two games left.

• 31 wins are the second-most in a four-year period in KU history behind the 32-6 record from 1896-99

• Produced at least six wins in four straight seasons for the first time since 1903-06.

• Saw home attendance average records set in each of the last four years.

• Posted two undefeated home seasons (2005 and 2007).

• Recorded a 23-3 home record in their four years.

• Played in first January bowl game since 1969 with last year's FedEx Orange Bowl victory.

• Could reach bowl game for the second straight year, the first bowl games in consecutive seasons in school history.

• Returned to the national polls in 2007, the Jayhawks' first ranking since 1996.

• Were part of a school-record 19 straight weeks in the Associated Press poll.

Hawk Talk...The Morning After(Sunflower Edition)

Denverjhawk — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:35:44 -0000

A look at news and notes about Jayhawks and upcoming opponents...

Jake Sharp runs wild behind the Kansas offense.
Russel Brorson turns in a memorable performance.
Notes including news on season ending injury to Justin Springer.
KU Athletics game recap.
Final Stats.
Game Notes.

My Thoughts...The morning after and the win feels just as satisfying as the day of. While it seems like our true football rivalry is Missouri this game was a big win for the Jayhawks and their fans. My only question is why the hell are there empty seats after halftime when we are handing our instate rival who we clearly have on the ropes an absolute beat down. Enjoy the journey and don't get so wrapped up in the destination Jayhawk fans.

Enough of that tangent how about a look at the game. There has been recent mention of Ed Warriner changing his offensive blocking scheme from a zone block to man. Clearly that is the right move. Yesterday, I saw our offensive line dominating man on man throughout the game. K-State players found their faces buried in the grass and I can count more than a few times where Jeff Spikes and Jeremiah Hatch our two newbie’s were on top. Jake Sharp used this to his advantage in a big way. Many of his big runs were off the right side behind Spikes and Sharp made the right reads hit the holes aggressively, got to the next level and then made guys miss. Not to mention his touchdown where he outran the Kansas State safety. Fact of the matter is Sharp proved a lot yesterday, and with consistent blocking he can be a very effective back for us. The shovel pass that he broke for long yardage was probably his best example of reading and cutting off blocks all year. Overall, kudos to the running game for being the focal point and not an afterthought this week.

Defensively it was hard not to be very happy with the scheme and effort. Josh Freeman is a very good quarterback with a pocket and with time. Under pressure he sometimes tries to do too much. Clint Bowen's zone blitzing along with the decision to utilize James Holt as an end was huge in applying pressure and allowing our secondary to provide solid coverage. The scheme also allowed Russel Brorson to pick off his 2nd and 3rd Josh Freeman passes adding to his one from last year’s game against Kansas State. In the backfield Justin Thornton and Daymond Patterson both looked much more comfortable in their positions this week, which might have something to do with not playing Texas Tech, but nonetheless both looked improved. Another crew that made a difference was our defensive tackles. Caleb Blakesly was a warrior in the middle, while Jamal Greene and Darius Parish did an excellent job filling in for Richard Johnson and tied up blockers allowing our linebackers to run free. Finally the leaders of this defense Joe Mortenson, Mike Rivera and Darrell Stuckey used their freedom to roam and stifle the running game holding Kansas State to a minimal 91 yards rushing.

Even the special teams were improved. Daymond Patterson had room to work on returns, Herford and Crawford looked more decisive on kickoff returns, Branstetter put a few in the end zone, knocked through a FG and made some great tackles. The only low point was the blocked field goal, but then again Kansas State doesn't lead the nation in that statistic for nothing.

From a mental standpoint Kansas definitely recovered from the haymaker that Tech threw their way a week ago. The players showed they aren't done yet and next week against Nebraska, the Jayhawks have a chance to break a streak, lock up a seventh win and probably creep back into the Top 25 before facing a tough Texas Longhorn team in Lawrence. Big win this week, another huge and difficult game next week but fans can rest easy as Kansas for the third year in a row defeated rival K-State in the sunflower showdown.

Press conference highlights after the Jump...some good stuff this week...

Image Source: KUSports.com

Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino:

On things that stand out from the game:

“First of all, our defense played really well today. I liked the plan that we had on defense, but our coaches did a good job of getting our kids to bounce back and play really well. Our pass defense, including our pass rush, put some pressure on the quarterback for the better part of the day, we got some sacks, so I’m really pleased with that aspect. Offensively we noticed during the week that they were giving some opportunities to run the ball, and we felt that they played us on defense the way we expected. Our offensive line did a terrific job of getting off the ball and knocking the defensive line back a little bit, and gave Jake Sharp room, and Jake just had a great day. He not only ran the ball well in space, but he took some viscous hits today and he jumped back up, and like I said before, Jake Sharp is a hard-charger. He’s a tough guy.”

On the improvement of the program:

“Obviously we’ve made great improvement, but I still think it’s a great in-state rivalry (with K-State). This year and the last few years we’ve played very well and I’m proud of the way our kids have played. Our program has made a lot of progress. Our fans are elated that KU is winning some of these games in this Sunflower Series. Overall, the credit goes to the kids. They want to do it, they want to get better, and each and every year we seem to have kids that really play hard, play together, and have great resolve. They are resilient; they bounce back from tough days. I’m very proud of the players that play in this program.”

On the success of the defensive pressure playing a part in the win:

“We put a great deal of pressure on the quarterback, or at least didn’t give him as much time as he would like to have. He’s a talented guy, he can hurt you, he made some very good throws today, you can see that he’s really a talented player. He made some tough throws. There were a couple of times I thought we had good coverage. He put the ball in there. If you give him a lot of time to stand back there you’re going to have a long day, and we’ve learned some lessons about that in the past, so we didn’t want that to happen today.”

On Jake Sharp getting knocked around:

“He has proven to us he is exceptional. Most guys his size cannot. But you cannot measure a guy’s heart. You can measure how fast he runs, how high he jumps, the weights he lifts, but you cannot measure intestinal fortitude. There’s no real measurement for it, and he has it. He’s a tough customer, and he’s a great guy to be around. His teammates like him, he’s proven that he can play at the highest level of college football and be successful at it, and I think there were some people who questioned that at one point in time. I’m glad that we didn’t, because we’re glad to have him in our program.”

Kansas senior center Ryan Cantrell

On rushing for 280 yards:

“The results speak for themselves. Before I knew it, I looked up on the stat boards and saw that we had over 100 yards rushing before the end of the first quarter. It was a good feeling. I think we had the right schemes. Jake (Sharp) ran his butt off today. I can’t say enough good things about the way he ran today. I wanted 300 yards (rushing), but we didn’t get that. It’s a good feeling. It makes all the work you put into it, especially in the run game, worth it. It helps motivate you for the next time.”

On the progression of freshmen tackles Jeremiah Hatch and Jeff Spikes:

“Anytime you have young guys and they are both redshirt freshmen, you are going to go through some growing pains. Every week they mature more and more. We’ll go through film each day and see if they had any mistakes. And every week there mistakes get to be less and less.”

Kansas senior linebacker Mike Rivera

On winning three in a row against K-State:

“I can’t tell you how good it feels. It was a great game for us to win, and to win it handily. We did a really good job. Being from Kansas, it is one game that I mark on my calendar each year. I’m glad that we went out there and gave our best effort. We had an awesome game and we put it all together. It’s my second to last game at Memorial Stadium, so it was exciting.”

Kansas State Head Coach Ron Prince

Opening Statement:

“They were a good team; a team that needed a win. KU lost a game badly and came back well organized and very well coached and did a terrific job today. On the flip side, we were not well coached today and that is my responsibility and the people of Kansas State deserve better then this. It is about as bad of a loss that I have been associated with, particularly the way we played in the first half. A number of things come to mind. No. 1, the offensive line from an offensive standpoint. Number two on offense, the turnovers continue to plague us. When you look at the number of carries that Lamark Brown was able to get, he had the same carries that Jake Sharp had, but the outcome was tremendously different. KU did a terrific job and we failed to beat blocks and once again tackle. They got big plays and we had very few. Also despite some positive things that could have occurred in the kicking game they did a really good job of limiting any big plays. When you are on the road and fall behind it is very difficult to keep balance in the game from a run or pass situation. We had to get some quality stops in the second half in order to get back into it and we just never got those. So it was a thorough and complete defeat by a very good KU team and my hat’s off to them. It was a very poor one by myself and my coaching staff.”

On the Kansas running game:

“They did a really good job of running the ball inside and then they did a very good job taking the ball to the perimeter on the option. We had some very specific things that we wanted to do to handle the option and we didn’t get them accomplished so therefore we had some plays that really looked uncontested, but they weren’t designed that way. As a coach I have to take responsibility for those.”

On the significance of the game:

“This is a thorough and complete beating and defeat there is no question about it. I’m not one that’s going to try to mince words and try to spin anything. They did a great job, they were very well prepared for the game and it meant a lot to them. We were very well prepared coming into the game, but didn’t execute like we needed to and that’s my job to

SB Nation - Marcus Herford

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Kansas(39)

Mizzou(41)

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

Three Positives

Three Negatives

Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

An Underrated Problem: Kickoff Returner

Why It's a (Potential) Problem

The Potential Solutions

Dezmon Briscoe (Jr.)

Darrell Stuckey (Sr.)

Isiah Barfield (rsSoph.)

The Field

So, The Solution Is...

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Special Teams

Coaching

OVERALL

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

'+' Rankings

Key Players: Kansas

Key Players: Mizzou

Summary & Prediction

Press Conference Quotes...11.11.08

Hawk Talk...The Morning After(Sunflower Edition)

Kansas
(39)

Mizzou
(41)