SB Nation - Isiah Barfield

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

You expected some other way to start out this post?

Every Border War win feels a little bit more triumphant than other wins, but this year packs a bit of extra meaning. Missouri has a chance to end both Todd Reesing's career and Mark Mangino's tenure in Lawrence with a single victory; meanwhile, Reesing and Mangino have a chance to extend their lives with an upset win in what is potentially their last game together.

I'll say this out front: I try to tune extracurricular detail out of these previews. I said last week that I don't necessarily believe in a positive Senior Day effect, and just the same, I doubt there is any net gain or loss to things like Kansas fighting for Mark Mangino's life in Lawrence. Extra emotion can go either way in the end, but let's just say this: I expect both Missouri and Kansas to bring their respective A-games to Arrowhead; and really, it shouldn't be any other way.

Offense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Once again, KU is a strong Passing Downs team, but they have only been a good overall offense instead of a great overall offense. And with their defense struggling for much of the season, good hasn't really cut it.

Kansas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	115.0 (30)	104.1 (48)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	112.4 (23)	100.0 (62)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	121.3 (37)	110.1 (46)

Rushing S&P+	109.2 (41)	111.2 (39)
Passing S&P+	116.9 (30)	98.2 (62)

Standard Downs S&P+	118.4 (24)	112.7 (31)
Passing Downs S&P+	131.4 (17)	95.0 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	127.8 (17)	110.5 (44)

Q1 S&P+	106.1 (65)	90.2 (85)
Q2 S&P+	121.4 (24)	121.6 (29)
Q3 S&P+	144.4 (4)	106.9 (47)
Q4 S&P+	128.3 (11)	115.3 (28)

1st Down S&P+	125.8 (12)	108.0 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	122.7 (29)	99.4 (62)
3rd Down S&P+	117.6 (34)	113.7 (38)

Line Yards+	104.6 (53)	103.7 (46)
Close Sack Rate+	91.9 (69)	90.8 (73)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	107.3 (59) / 85.5 (81)	102.5 (57) / 116.4 (39)

As you'll see, both offenses have significant advantages in this one, so the game could come down to which individual playmakers step up the most. Danario Alexander and Sean Weatherspoon, or Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Darrell Stuckey? Blaine Gabbert or Todd Reesing?

When KU Has the Ball...
KU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KU Passing	Advantage: KU
Best Time for KU:	Q1, Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2

Mizzou Advantages:

Passing Downs Sack Rate+

And for KU...

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Passing S&P+
Standard, Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+

No matter what happens in this game, Missouri will once again end up with a more successful regular season than Kansas. This has been the norm with Gary Pinkel against Mark Mangino. That said, it's pretty easy to see that KU has a number of matchup advantages to work with, and if Todd Reesing is dialed in and playing well, this game is a complete tossup shootout.

Mizzou's path to success, however, comes on Passing Downs. They must successfully blitz on those downs; if they do, KU's other advantages can be negated pretty quickly.

Quarterback

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Todd Reesing: 276-for-441 passing (62.6%), 3,118 yards (7.1 per pass), 18 TD, 9 INT

As a whole, Reesing has certainly put up solid numbers this year; however, after QB ratings in the 148-150 range both of his first two years as a starter, his has fallen to just 131.4 this year, and he has been every bit as all-or-nothing as in years past. Against Iowa State, he went 37-for-49 for 442 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT; he followed that up with another 401 yards against Colorado. Then, against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, he went a combined 42-for-77 (54.5%) for 405 yards (5.3 yards per pass), 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a sub-100 QB rating. We should all expect to see his best performance tomorrow, but anything less than his best might not get the job done.

Running Back

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

Toben Opurum: 133 carries, 554 yards (4.2 per carry), 9 TD, 13 receptions, 105 yards (8.1 per catch), 1 TD
Jake Sharp: 95 carries, 400 yards (4.2 per carry), 4 TD; 26 receptions, 188 yards (7.2 per catch), 3 TD
Rell Lewis: 10 carries, 60 yards

Toben Opurum is out with an injury, but I cannot really say I can tell any difference whatsoever between Opurum and Jake Sharp. Their numbers suggest that they are virtually the same running back. Opurum is a bit bigger, and Sharp is a bit faster, but in all, KU's running game probably will not get going that much on Saturday (knock on wood). Mizzou's rush defense has improved considerably throughout this season, and if they can stop Sharp and get to Reesing on passing downs, they should win. It's if they don't get to Reesing where the problems may start...

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

WR Kerry Meier: 92 receptions, 931 yards (10.1 per catch), 6 TD
WR Dezmon Briscoe: 70 receptions, 1,095 yards (15.6 per catch), 7 TD
WR Jonathan Wilson: 35 receptions, 449 yards (12.8 per catch)
WR Bradley McDougald: 31 receptions, 285 yards (9.2 per catch)

TE Tim Biere: 12 receptions, 134 yards (11.2 per catch)

KU's Border War strategy last year was very effective; what's scary is, Mizzou has become even more vulnerable to that sort of strategy in 2009. If Mizzou is unable to corral the short pass, Reesing could very easily go over 400 yards. If Mizzou fans are having nightmares tonight, it is probably because of Meier and Briscoe.

Offensive Line

Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

KU's offensive line has been distinctly average in 2009, improving slightly as the year has progressed. Mizzou's line, meanwhile, has also improved as the year has progressed, particularly in terms of line yards and passing down sack rates. If Mizzou can win this matchup by quite a bit, it could negate the passing advantage KU appears to have.

---

Defense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

I was half-right above. The rushing numbers have certainly regressed ... but then, so have the passing numbers. After some adjustments resulted in better defensive play in the middle of the season, KU's defense just has not been able to maintain a spark. They looked good at times against both Kansas State and Nebraska in recent weeks, but their breakdowns have been killers, as evidenced by the fact that they rank a ridiculous 93rd in PPP+. Mizzou's big-play ability, matched with KU's inability to stop the big play, represent Mizzou's single biggest advantage.

KU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.3 (82)	117.2 (27)
Close Success Rate+	96.2 (76)	108.4 (37)
Close PPP+	87.4 (93)	133.1 (21)

Rushing S&P+	84.0 (107)	107.6 (47)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (57)	125.9 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (85)	114.6 (28)
Passing Downs S&P+	106.3 (50)	109.5 (53)

Red Zone S&P+	92.3 (87)	85.9 (104)

Q1 S&P+	106.0 (53)	118.1 (42)
Q2 S&P+	107.9 (54)	115.1 (44)
Q3 S&P+	86.2 (98)	122.8 (22)
Q4 S&P+	92.6 (79)	105.8 (55)

1st Down S&P+	94.2 (77)	120.2 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	97.0 (69)	108.5 (53)
3rd Down S&P+	102.1 (60)	110.1 (57)

Line Yards+	94.1 (84)	97.7 (77)
Close Sack Rate+	135.7 (16)	150.0 (28)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	141.6 (19) / 112.2 (48)	251.2 (10) / 113.6 (51)

When they are not forcing turnovers, this unit is simply not getting the job done.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KU:	First Half
Best Time for Missouri:	Second Half

MU's advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

KU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+

As with Mizzou's defense, KU's defense has few advantages, but can use what they have to great benefit. If KU is able to hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven by shutting things down in the red zone, then they will find it a lot easier to outscore Mizzou.

Defensive Line

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

DE Jake Laptad: 37.0 tackles, 12.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 6 QBH
DE Max Onyegbule: 23.5 tackles, 10.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 5 QBH
DT Caleb Blakesley: 12.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Richard Johnson: 12.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
DE Jeff Wheeler: 11.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 8 QBH

As with many highly-touted JUCO transfers (hello, Jocques Crawford ... and Andy Maples, for that matter), Quintin Woods came to Lawrence with much ado and produced almost nothing. He has a whopping four tackles for the season. Which means my prediction more or less came true -- Woods didn't catch on, and the KU defensive line was a liability, at least against the run. Rushing the passer, they've been pretty solid. Laptad (6.5 sacks), Wheeler (5.5) and Onyegbule (5.0) have all had their moments, and KU has been at its most successful getting pressure on the passer while not committing LBs to the blitz. They've been a sieve against the run, though.

Linebackers

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

LB Drew Dudley: 64.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
LB Huldon Tharp: 44.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Arist Wright: 34.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Justin Springer: 18.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH

True freshman Huldon Tharp has gotten some good press recently for racking up a large number of tackles in recent weeks; but that's all they are: tackles. He is not much of a disruptive force -- much more Luke Lambert than future Sean Weatherspoon. Drew Dudley, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. With Angus Quigley failing to figure out the LB position in just one offseason (that is the norm, not the exception), Dudley, a junior, has stepped up and made a decent number of plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The LB corps has been solid in pass coverage, but their run support and blitzing have, as a whole, left something to be desired.

Secondary

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. ... Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

CB Chris Harris: 67.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 7 PBU
S Darrell Stuckey: 66.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH
S Justin Thornton: 58.0 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
S Lubbock Smith: 32.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
CB Daymond Patterson: 27.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 PBU
CB D.J. Beshears: 16.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Anthony Davis: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
S Ryan Murphy: 11.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
S Phil Strozier: 11.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH

It's been a strange year for the KU secondary. Relatively speaking, it has still somewhat been a strength of this defense, but 2009 has seen all sorts of personnel shuffling and slump busting. Career doghouse resident Chris Harris has turned out to be the star of the secondary (again), while Justin Thornton has, at times, taken Harris' place in the doghouse. Darrell Stuckey has certainly been good, but he hasn't quite lived up to my own expectations for him. Meanwhile, Lubbock Smith emerged as a potential leader in the secondary but has been hindered recently by injury. He is a game-time decision.

In all, this is a crafty, experienced secondary, and I'm sure that, if given the opportunity, they will take advantage of any mistakes by Blaine Gabbert or any drops by Mizzou receivers. That said, they still aren't quite as scary as I thought they would be, and I'm a lot more confident in Mizzou's potential ability to win a shootout than I was a couple of months ago.

Special Teams

KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.
If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Punt Returns Rank: 83rd (Daymond Patterson: 20 returns, 8.2 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 73rd (Alonso Rojas: 48 punts, 41.4 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 51st (Bradley McDougald: 20 returns, 19.2 avg; Dez Briscoe: 16 returns, 23.9 avg, 1 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 90th (Jacob Branstetter: 60 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks)

Field Goals: 80th (Jacob Branstetter: 12-for-18, long: 57)
PATs: 78th (Jacob Branstetter: 38-for-40)

In all, special teams are a giant "meh" unit. They are average to below average in both place-kicking and punting, and their return units are, Dez Briscoe aside, average as well. In all, Mizzou should be able to flip the field rather well with Jake Harry, and Mizzou's average return units might find at least some moderate success. But Briscoe is the key. To avoid overuse, Briscoe has not been the key return man this year, but he showed what he could do if given the opportunity with his effortless TD return last weekend in Austin. I get the sneaking suspicion that Briscoe will be the main return man tomorrow, and ... well, that scares the living daylights out of me. IF Mizzou doesn't give up serious field position and/or a touchdown in the kicking game tomorrow, they win the special teams battle. But with the way Mizzou has been covering on kickoffs, that's a huge if.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

MU's Running Game

Most of the previews, this one included, has focused on these two teams' respective passing games, but if Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Prediction

Gotta say, I do NOT like how well KU is capable of running the short passing game considering how vulnerable Mizzou has been to just that over the last few weeks. That is just not a matchup I like for Mizzou. However, Mizzou's own big-play ability might neutralize that a bit, and besides ... it's not like I let my own feelings get in the way of these predictions anyhow, right? The numbers say Mizzou by 4.7, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Kansas 26. Nothing between a 17-point win for Mizzou and a 17-point win for Kansas would surprise me, but being that the last two games have both gone down to the wire, we can probably expect more of the same here.

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we looked at an offense that actually improved from 2007 to 2008. How about the defense? Was the biggest difference between 2007 and 2008 simply the schedule? Was the 2007 schedule really that easy (or the 2008 schedule that hard)?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 111.9 (#30)
Success Rate+: 113.9 (#19)
PPP+: 109.7 (#45)

Standard Downs S&P+: 107.2 (#41)
Passing Downs S&P+: 113.5 (#35)

Redzone S&P+: 106.4 (#46)

Q1 S&P+: 108.9 (#40)
Q2 S&P+: 126.2 (#15)
Q3 S&P+: 100.0 (#54)
Q4 S&P+: 10.42 (#49)

1st Down S&P+: 108.0 (#43)
2nd Down S&P+: 109.7 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 112.3 (#40)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 111.1 (#38)
Rushing SR+: 118.7 (#18)
Rushing PPP+: 102.0 (#61)

Standard Downs: 107.5 (#42)
Passing Downs: 95.7 (#68)

Redzone: 110.0 (#39)

Line Yards+: 109.2 (#31)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 113.3 (#27)
Passing SR+: 110.8 (#21)
Passing PPP+: 116.0 (#26)

Standard Downs: 109.4 (#30)
Passing Downs: 119.5 (#24)

Redzone: 107.5 (#41)

Sack Rate+: 88.7 (#77)

So let's play the same game we played yesterday--the 2007 vs 2008 game.

S&P+: #12 in 2007, #30 in 2008
Success Rate+: #13 in 2007, #19 in 2008
PPP+: #14 in 2007, #45 in 2008
Rushing S&P+: #8 in 2007, #38 in 2008
Passing S&P+: #20 in 2007, #27 in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: #12 in 2007, #41 in 2008
Passing Downs S&P+: #6 in 2007, #35 in 2008
Line Yards+: #12 in 2007, #31 in 2008

Ahh, so it wasn't just the schedule that made a four-game difference in the loss column. While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

Meanwhile, with so much returning experience in 2008 and a seemingly rock solid secondary, I can't really explain the significant regression in PPP+. KU allowed a ton more big plays, particularly in the running game, so we'll pin the blame mostly on the D-line and a linebacker corps that didn't achieve nearly as much as it should have with three solid players in Joe Mortensen, Mike Rivera, and James Holt. We'll also point out that Defensive Coordinator Bill Young left for Miami after 2007, and that might have made a bigger difference than anything else.

Defensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #49 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Caleb Blakesley (6'5, 292, Sr.)
DE Jake Laptad (6'4, 258, Jr.)
DT Jamal Greene (6'4, 303, Jr.)
DE Jeff Wheeler (6'7, 260, Sr.)
DT Richard Johnson (6'2, 280, So.)
DE Quintin Woods (6'5, 230, Jr.)
DE Maxwell Onyegbule (6'5, 257, Sr.)
DT Darius Parish (6'4, 341, So.)

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #57 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Arist Wright (6'0, 226, Sr.)
Dakota Lewis (6'1, 209, Jr.)
Jake Schermer (6'2, 222, Sr.)
Angus Quigley (6'2, 226, Sr.)
Justin Springer (6'4, 242, Jr.)
Drew Dudley (6'2, 232, Jr.)
Steven Johnson (6'2, 225, So.)

When we say that KU lost all three starting linebackers from 2008, that's a smidge of an exaggeration. When Holt was moved around to generate a pass rush, Arist Wright stepped in. Still, though, Wright was only 10th on the team in tackles and managed only ten "successful" tackles (i.e. tackles that prevented a successful play) all year, two against the pass and eight against the run. The other three LBs with any experience at all combined for just 5.5 successful tackles (two against the pass, 3.5 against the run).

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

Of course, Missouri doesn't play them for quite a while, so the team we're talking about now will change significantly, for better or worse, between now and then. Probably shouldn't spend a ton of time figuring everything out, eh?

Secondary

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Darrell Stuckey (6'1, 205, Sr.)
CB Justin Thornton (6'1, 213, Sr.)
S Phillip Strozier (6'0, 200, Jr.)
CB Daymond Patterson (5'9, 175, So.)
S Chris Harris (6'0, 185, Jr.)
CB Anthony Davis (6'0, 192, So.)
CB Corrigan Powell (5'10, 171, So.)
S Olaitan Oguntodu (6'0, 220, Jr.)

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. He is an all-conference favorite heading into the season, and with good reason. In 2008, he put together 4.5 TFL, 5 INT, 7 passes broken-up, 2 FF, 1 FR. Plus, he managed a very healthy 23.5 successful tackles against the run, one of the highest run-support totals in the country (13th overall). He's a stud.

Beyond that, Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #81 Net Punting, #26 Punt Returns, #118 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Jacob Branstetter (5'10, 182, Jr.) - 51-for-52 PAT, 9-for-12 FG (Long: 34)
P Alonso Rojas (6'3, 220, Jr.) - 58 Punts, 33.9 Net
KR Dezmon Briscoe (6'3, 200, Jr.) - 8 returns, 27.4 Avg
PR Daymond Patterson (5'9, 175, So.) - 22 Returns, 11.0 Avg, 1 TD

Rarely is there a more stark regression than what Kansas suffered in the kick return game last year. KU ranked 7th in the country in kick returns in 2007, then fell 111 spots to 118th in 2008. What made it strange was that, it was the same main return man (Marcus Herford) both years. KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.

If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Summary

After seeing a pretty solid across-the-board drop in 2008, it's hard to see where KU's baseline is with a potentially great secondary and serious question marks among the front seven. The linebacker corps returns almost no quality experience, and while experience isn't a problem on the defensive line, playmaking is. KU needs to be able to limit the big run plays and generate a pass rush if they're going to fully utilize the strong secondary, and it's not a given that they can do that. Everybody in the North has question marks, so while KU's no different in that regard...KU's no different in that regard. With a South schedule that screams 0-3, they really do need to be better than everybody else in the North if they want to win the division this year, and with the holes at offensive line and in the defensive front seven, it's hard to claim they are at this moment. I've been talking up KU all offseason (not in a "Hey, gosh, you're alright, KU!" kind of way, but in a "We better start accepting that they're probably going to win the North" kind of way), but the more I read and talk about them, the less sure of them I am.

---

Projections on Friday.

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

"I'd say the burrito was about this big." (Sorry, have to win back some goodwill after posting an unharmed Jayhawk logo yesterday.)

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We now take a look at a team that, talent-wise, seems to be most well-established for making a North title run in 2009. At least, a team well-established at skill positions and in the secondary, with some pretty good-sized question marks in some units.

2008

Record: 8-5 (4-4 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 230.0 (20th in the country, 6th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 434-375 (+59)
Conference Scoring Margin: 251-293 (-42)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri (dammit), #63 Minnesota, #82 Colorado, #79 Kansas State, #86 Louisiana Tech, #93 Florida International, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Sam Houston State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #15 Texas Tech, #21 Nebraska, #23 South Florida

Two atrocious quarters of offense from Missouri prevented me from being able to cleanly say that KU was 0-6 versus Top 60 teams and 7-0 versus everybody else, but alas...the 40-37 win over Mizzou at Arrowhead was KU's single crowning win in 2008. And yet...they managed to rank 20th in the country anyway. It all depends on how you frame it, I guess. You could also say that they were 1-5 versus the Top 25 and 7-0 versus everybody else, which makes #20 sound about right. Regardless of how you frame 2008, in 2009 KU returns all of their skill position talent and some key cogs in the secondary, but faces major holes on the O-line and at linebacker.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mark Mangino
Record at Kansas: 45-41 (conference: 22-34)
Career Pythagorean Record: -1.15 wins (-0.1/year)

Mark Mangino enters his eighth season in Lawrence having brought Kansas pretty steady, if a little two-steps-forward-one-back, success. He has yet to finish ahead of Gary Pinkel in the Big 12 North standings, yet he is consistently ranked ahead of GP when Big 12 coaches are ranked. At some point, actually, you'd think KU fans would become rather offended by this, as it pretty much suggests that KU was such a bad job that he's done an amazing job just to win some games while never finishing ahead of PInkel.

Mangino's moving average of wins shows just how methodically he has brought success to Lawrence:

2002-04: 4.0
2003-05: 5.7
2004-06: 5.7
2005-07: 8.3
2006-08: 8.7

And while we're at it, let's look at "Adjusted Win %." If you remember this from previous use, this is where we adjust a team's record for quality of opponent, equally weighting the record against teams based on win %.

Mark Mangino's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	7-1 (0.875)	6-10 (0.375)	6-12 (0.333)	0-5 (0.000)	19-28 (0.396)
Year 5-7	9-0 (1.000)	8-2 (0.800)	8-6 (0.571)	1-4 (0.200)	26-12 (0.643)
Total	16-1 (0.941)	14-12 (0.538)	14-18 (0.438)	1-9 (0.100)	45-40 (0.504)

Just as a means of comparison, here's Gary Pinkel's Adjusted Win %, broken out the same way:

Gary Pinkel's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	6-0 (1.000)	12-8 (0.600)	3-10 (0.231)	1-7 (0.125)	22-25 (0.468)
Year 5-8	7-0 (1.000)	15-2 (0.882)	14-8 (0.636)	1-6 (0.143)	37-16 (0.665)
Total	13-0 (1.000)	27-10 (0.730)	17-18 (0.486)	2-13 (0.133)	59-41 (0.583)

So Gary Pinkel has performed slightly better across the board, but clearly both have done wonderful jobs turning iffy programs into winners. And as with Gary PInkel, Mangino will lose quite a few impact players after his eighth season, so he'll be starting Year #9 with a somewhat fresh slate just the same.

Looking at Pythagorean wins suggests that KU should have actually done a bit better overall, but the improvement has been easily measurable, and Mangino clearly is a pretty good coach. He's just not better than Pinkel.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 118.1 (#19)
Success Rate+: 115.8 (#16)
PPP+: 121.5 (#28)

Standard Downs S&P+: 110.0 (#33)
Passing Downs S&P+: 128.0 (#16)

Redzone S&P+: 125.1 (#12)

Q1 S&P+: 126.7 (#18)
Q2 S&P+: 108.6 (#44)
Q3 S&P+: 105.2 (#53)
Q4 S&P+: 126.6 (#10)

1st Down S&P+: 114.5 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 110.9 (#42)
3rd Down S&P+: 124.0 (#21)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 118.8 (#21)
Rushing SR+: 120.9 (#7)
Rushing PPP+: 116.4 (#42)

Standard Downs: 106.3 (#48)
Passing Downs: 130.3 (#24)

Redzone: 120.0 (#30)

Line Yards+: 115.0 (#19)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.2 (#25)
Passing SR+: 111.6 (#24)
Passing PPP+: 119.7 (#27)

Standard Downs: 113.0 (#24)
Passing Downs: 122.5 (#24)

Redzone: 131.3 (#13)

Sack Rate+: 103.3 (#61)

Kansas stepped backwards by four games from their 12-1 season in 2007 to 8-5 in 2008. A lot of that dropoff was schedule-based (as mentioned above, they didn't actually lose to a team ranked below 23rd in S&P+), but was it measurable in the numbers too? Not really.

2007 vs 2008

S&P+: 39th in 2007, 19th in 2008
Success Rate+: 40th in 2007, 16th in 2008
PPP+: 41st in 2007, 28th in 2008
Rushing S&P+: 35th in 2007, 21st in 2008
Passing S&P+: 41st in 2007, 25th in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: 30th in 2007, 33rd in 2008 (regression!)
Passing Downs S&P+: 54th in 2007, 16th in 2008 (a-ha!)

That they actually improved offensively in 2008 despite the regression in record says two things: 1) they could be pretty damn good in 2009, and 2) not to beat a dead horse, but...their schedule was so freaking weak in 2007!!

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Quarterback

Forever and ever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Todd Reesing (5'11, 200, Sr.)
Kale Pick (6'2, 200, RSFr.)
Chase Knighton (6'1, 195, So.)

If this team is relying on Passing Downs success to win their first North title, then they're going as far as Todd Reesing can take them. He was at his improvisational best against Oklahoma and Missouri, scrambling and seemingly inventing routes on the fly on his way to a combined 717 passing yards and 6 TDs (and, to be fair, 4 INTs). The Brett Favre comparison gets overused these days, and while Reesing doesn't quite see the Favre-esque extremes that someone like Matt Grothe does (he's only thrown more than 2 picks in a game twice), it's definitely in him, much moreso than with Chase Daniel, who was also given that "gunslinger" label (even though Chase was, in the end, about as robotic as a QB can be).

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Which, in the end, is about as Favre-esque as you can get.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #69 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jake Sharp (5'10, 195, Sr.)
Reil Lewis (5'10, 201, So.)
Deshaun Sands? (5'9, 182, Fr.)
Toben Opurum? (6'2, 239, Fr.)

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

For better or worse, Sharp is the horse of this unit. Their two other POE-eligible running backs, Angus Quigley (165th) and Jocques Crawford (153rd), are either no longer playing running back (Quigley moved to LB) or no longer on the team (Crawford left Lawrence after, uhh, some drama). What remain are Reil Lewis and a couple of brank, spanking new options in Deshaun Sands and big Toben Opurum. Expect either or both of the freshmen to play this year, though you never want to rely too much on freshmen. Barring injury, Sharp will still carry a majority of the load.

One more thing: if Sands, ~~brother~~ son of the one and only Tony Sands, sees the field at Arrowhead this November, somebody should take precautionary measures and break his freaking kneecaps. Nothing personal, ahem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dezmon Briscoe (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Kerry Meier (6'3, 220, Sr.)
Johnathan Wilson (6'3, 189, Jr.)
Raimond Pendleton (5'11, 192, Sr.)
Tertavian Ingram (6'0, 200, Jr.)
Isiah Barfield (6'0, 184, So.)
Reece Petty (6'2, 195, Jr.)
Willie O'Quinn (6'0, 190, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Tim Biere (6'4, 246, So.)
Bradley Dedeaux (6'3, 252, Jr.)
Nick Plato (6'6, 242, RSFr.)

I'll be the first to admit that I need to figure out a better method of ranking WR/TE units. Both Kansas and Missouri ranked in the 20s in this category, but...well, until I figure out a better way, this is what we've got. KU definitely has the scariest 1-2 punch in the North. Briscoe and Meier combined for 189 catches, 2,452 yards, and 23 TDs in 2008, simply insane numbers. Johnathan Wilson (43 for 573, 3 TDs) is a solid third option, but...well, talking about anybody but Briscoe and Meier as the headliners is like saying Wilt Chamberlain and I have combined to sleep with over 10,000 women...it's very impressive, but it completely takes away from the real accomplishment.

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

I am working on the assumption that 2009 will be Briscoe's last season in Lawrence--he's got good NFL size and speed, plus grades appear to be an issue, which sometimes pulls people toward the pros a little sooner than otherwise--meaning the KU receiving corps will take on a completely different look in 2010. But we'll talk about that in 2010. For now, this is the best WR unit in the North, and any production they get from the tight end position (which, last year, was almost nonexistant--Tim Biere and Bradley Dedeaux combined for all of 8 catches and 74 yards) is just icing.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Jeremiah Hatch (6'3, 311, So.)
T Jeff Spikes (6'6, 314, So.)
G Sal Capra (6'3, 292, Jr.)
G Carl Wilson (6'4, 292, Jr.)
T Tanner Hawkinson (6'6, 260, RSFr.)
G John Williams (6'4, 338, RSFr.)
G Trevor Marrongelli (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
C Brad Thorson (6'3, 290, Jr.)
T Ian Wolfe (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Darius Parish (6'4, 341, So.)

Consider the offensive line Major Kansas Question Mark #1 (the second will come when we talk about the defense). They have the fewest returning career starts in the conference (lower than even OU), and of the ten names I was able to dig up for a depth chart (question for KU fans: is senior Jose Rodriguez still with the team? He's not on the 2009 KU roster, but I saw him mentioned at RCT), there are no seniors and only four juniors. This bodes well for 2010, when a solid, experienced line is trying to set the table for an almost 100% new set of skill position players, but for now it's a giant red flag for this offense. Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

Summary

Todd Reesing's interesting offseason workout plan was introduced to the country recently...and well, I just needed a place to reference that, so here you go. Now to the real summary:

It cannot be emphasized enough just how much this team relies on Reesing for success. They have an efficient but average running game and the greenest offensive line in the conference. Reesing has two explosive and heady options in Briscoe and Meier, but the Jayhawks will need things to click better than they did last year to navigate through the most brutal schedule in the North and win their first North title (no, 2007 does not count). The more Reesing has to rely on his great improvisational skills, the more likely KU is to fail, not because Reesing's talent will fall off or anything, but because you're simply setting yourself up for failure with the more Passing Downs you encounter.

The running game must click at least as well as it did last year, when a seemingly raw O-line produced very respectable line yardage totals, and KU must avoid relying on Passing Downs success because they will likely fall off in that regard in 2009. Missouri did from 2007 to 2008, and I think with the more data I get, the more common I will find these occurrences to be. I still think that, talent- and experience-wise, KU is the most proven overall team in the North, but they will need to be better than they were in 2008, and with that offensive line and their '08 over-reliance on Passing Downs success, it's far from a given that they actually will be better.

Preseason Positional Breakdowns: Wide Recievers

Denverjhawk — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:00:10 -0000

Dezmon Briscoe will look to Brush his Troubles Aside and Become One of the Top Receivers in College Football.

View full size photo »

Today on our RCT preseason position breakdowns is the area of the team that is probably the biggest strength beyond the quarterback spot. There are proven starters, solid backups and some seriously talented newcomers when looking at the receivers and the position looks to be in good hands for years to come.

Starting things off we'll take a look at a Jayhawk who draws praise from nearly everyone for his team first attitude in Kerry Meier. .

Meier came on to the scene slowly in his redshirt sophomore season after Todd Reesing had won the quarterback battle and taken Lawrence by storm in 2007. The buzz amongst the fans was that this move to receiver would be a gimick role and one that had the potential to make for difficult game planning. What happened though was a different reality. His 26 receptions for 275 yards while never practicing at the position showed that Meier was more than a decoy or gimmick, he might just be a player at the position.

Fast forward to 2008 and you have a Bilitnekoff finalist that finished with 97 receptions for 1024 yards and 8 touchdowns, all of course while fairly badly hobbled much of the season. Meier became Mr. third down converting a extraordinary number of the Jayhawks third downs with key receptions and he also caught a pretty important 4th down pass late in November.

Next in line and the more flashy player in the receiving corps is Dezmon Briscoe. Despite some reported problems in the offseason you can expect Briscoe to make his way onto the field come opening day I would suspect. I can tell you with a great amount of confidence that this has a high probability of being his last season in a Jayhawk uniform and if the junior can put up numbers the way he has in his first two seasons, I can't say I blame him.

The 6'3" 200 pound junior played as a true freshman with the Jayhawks posting 43 receptions for nearly 500 yards and 7 touchdowns. He followed that up with a monster sophomore year of 92 receptions for 1407 yards including a 250+ yard outburst against national championship participant Oklahoma. Briscoe was near the top of the conference and the nation for that matter in several major recieving categories and set several Kansas bests in the process.

Finally Johnathan Wilson will look to continue his role as the somewhat forgotten starter on the Jayhawk team. Injury and position changes put him in the lineup as a sophomore last season and he had a solid season rotating through as the third recieving option. Wilson's sophomore campaign rounded out with total of 43 receptions for 573 yards playing in all 13 games. The 6'3" 190 pound junior to be also turned some heads after having a great spring.

Beyond the starters there are several upperclassmen that will by vying for minutes starting with Tetravian Ingram. Ingram has at times run with the first team to start of fall camp but he'll likely be one of the first of the bench when the season get's going. While Ingram only has a career total of 3 receptions, he did start the first two games as a redshirt freshman in 2007 and was considered a pretty big pickup in recruiting that year.

Another veteran in the mix is 5'11" 192 pound senior Raimond Pendleton. Made famous from his punt return celebration turned Mark Mangino youtube moment Pendleton has never quite been able to crack into the lineup on a consistent basis recording only 8 receptions. His most important contribution to the team would be on special teams at the beginning of 2007 as a punt returner averaging over 12 yards per return at the start of the season.

Rod Harris a 6'2" Junior who transferred in from Blinn County Community College is another name on the list of potential contributors at receiver. Harris has shown promise throughout his career on the scout team and in camp but injuries have kept him from getting the reps and seeing the minutes on gameday. He reportedly faced another setback during spring ball but nothing official is known.

Isiah Barfield a 6' 185 pound redshirt sophomore is a name to keep an eye on this season and in the future. He's bounced around in his first two seasons with the Jayhawks but early reports from 7 on 7's over the summer and fall camp are that he might finally be finding a role at the reciever slot. He's always been reported to have great athleticism and after spending time on defense last season it appears he may be finding a niche as an offensive weapon in the Jayhawk spread.

There are also a few true freshman that could make some noise at this position in 2009 starting with 4 star recruit Bradley McDougald. McDougald was originally an Ohio State commitment before ultimately ending up at Kansas. Measuring 6'2" 195 pounds he's known to be an elusive runner that is able to break tackles and make plays. Like Barfield early returns on this one are very positive.

Erick McGriff is another true freshman that reportedly showed up this summer and impressed. At 6'4" 205 pounds the freshman came into the summer physically ready to compete and turned heads in 7 on 7 and continues to do so as fall camp has begun. McGriff logged 44 catches for 730 yards as a senior in Florida.

The last of the freshman trio that could be in the mix on gameday is Chris Omigie. Labeled by rivals as one of the most underrated players last season Omigie is another big target at 6'4" 200 pounds. He's had one of the more memorable plays through the early days of camp with a behind the back, one handed catch on fellow freshman Tyler Patmon.

I would expect reshirts to be a strong possibility for all three of these given the depth at the position but early reports are leaving some doubt as it appears there is some belief that there might be an ability to contribute by some if not all of the incoming freshman.

Others on the list coming to the Jayhawks as preferred walk on's include Willie O'Quinn, Patrick Schilling and Reece Petty. As long as this preview is already I won't go into everyone of them, but I will say that Willie O'Quinn might just become the TJ Whatley of the football team. For those of you not old enough Whatley was a walk on for the basketball team that drew chants from the crowd in the mid 90's. He brought excitement late in games much the way guys like Terry Nooner, Matt Kleinmann and others have done after him.

O'Quinn as a true freshman walk on last season was good enough and impressed enough people to find his way on the field in special teams action. I personally noted some solid play in the Insight Bowl and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in games late as a reward for his efforts.

That wraps up our look at the reciever position. I've tried to keep it clean and concise but there are a lot of options here and this is by far the position I feel most confident about looking into the future for the Jayhawks.

Poll

What Receiver would you like to see be the first off the bench in 2009?

Tetravian Ingram

7 votes

Raimond Pendleton

6 votes

Isiah Barfield

3 votes

Rod Harris

5 votes

Chris Omigie

5 votes

Erick McGriff

8 votes

Bradley McDougald

31 votes

Willie O'Quinn

0 votes

65 votes | Poll has closed

An Underrated Problem: Kickoff Returner

rockchalk — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:00:14 -0000

View full size photo »

Coming into this season, there seems to be two primary problems that preseason magazines are focusing on: interior line play and linebackers. This makes sense, of course, as we lost all 6 starters in those two positions. However, there are more than just two potential holes on this team. This week, we'll be documenting all of these "mini-issues", if you will, with today's topic being kick returner.

Why It's a (Potential) Problem

Because field position matters, man. This may seem superfluous as a real "problem", and it probably is. Still, it helps to have a shorter distance to go. Always. Particularly in our offense, where we love nickel-and-diming our way down the field. It makes the offense's job that much easier if, say, we are starting at the 32 every time out, as opposed to the 22.

If you need evidence, just check out the differences between 2007 and 2008. Obviously, much more important things changed between the two seasons, most notably personnel and schedule, but there was also a significant difference in kickoff return yardage. In 2007, the Jayhawks averaged 25.2 yards a return, good enough to rank 7th in the country. Marcus Herford received plenty of accolades for this, and was even the number-one ranked kick returner in the country going into 2008 according to Phil Steele. But he didn't play up to such a high ranking, as we fell all the way to (you won't believe this) 118th in the country. The average kickoff return fell down to 17.5 yards a return, and only Wisconsin was more anemic in returning kickoffs.

And keep in mind, that fantastic finish in 2008 is buoyed by the absolutely fantastic game Dez Briscoe had in Arrowhead against Missouri; 7 returns for an average of 27.9 yards per return. So, Herford's personal numbers are even worse.*

* Now, I don't want to get into the differences between the two years, or why Herford performed so fantastically one season then so putridly the next. I don't really know, but my guess would be the classic small sample size reason. Given how little chances they get, kickoff returners are probably more volatile to small sample size flukes than, say, a running back piling up 30 carries a game. For you baseball fans out there, think of it like some of the sabermetric defensivie stats, like UZR. One year a fielder can be incredible, and the next he can be bad. Likely, said fielder is somewhere in between, but in small doses weird stuff can happen. This was probably the case here, not getting into discussions about the difference in blockers and such.

Subsequently, our offensive production substantially dropped, from nearly 43 points a game in 2007 (2nd in the country) to "only" a little more than 33 points a contest in '08 (28th). Again, it's almost unfair to compare the two seasons there is such a huge difference, but it assuredly had some type of impact.

Here's a nice, cute little table that tells you everything you need to know in a half-second glance:

	Yards per kickoff return	Points per game
2007	25.2	43
2008	17.5	33

It makes a difference, people. So, while it isn't like we're replacing vintage Dante Hall back there, it would still be nice to get a good 'replacement'. And no, Dezmon Briscoe doesn't count as an option.

The Potential Solutions

Man, this is tough. Obviously, if there was no such thing as an injury risk, it would be an easy decision. Dez Briscoe, go back there, have fun, continue dominating, and have fun in the NFL next year.

Beyond him, though, it's a whole mess of names. Daymond Patterson probably has the punt returner job down, but kickoff returner requires more straight-line speed, as opposed to the joystick qualities of a DP. I mean, he could do it, but he probably isn't your first choice. So, I'm just going off of the Spring Game, really. I kind of cop out listing 'The Field' as the last option, but I don't want to just throw out random ones. So, I didn't. If you wanna throw one out, though...I'm all ears.

The list of names after the break.

Dezmon Briscoe (Jr.)

I'm including him, well, because he could do it the best. Depending on the situation, don't be surprised - at all - if he is returning at least a couple of kicks this fall. I'm sure he'll return them well, too. But, and maybe I'm wrong on this one, but I don't see him consistently lining up back there. It just doesn't make too much sense; while kickoff returns and field position are important things, yes, I'd rather have (arguably) the conference's best wide receiver not getting hurt returning kicks.

How often Mangino uses Dez to return the kicks is the wild card of this whole scenario. He could go multiple ways with this one, anywhere from installing Briscoe as the primary returner and sending him out there nearly every time all of the way to only returning when absolutely necessary. Ideally, you can find a returner equally as good, or at least similarly talented, so that Dez can save up energy for wide receiver.

And yes, I realize that this section has been entirely unhelpful. I'm sorry. I'm not Mangino, and I have no idea just how he is planning on using Briscoe in the kicking game. It's certainly fun to talk about, though.

Darrell Stuckey (Sr.)

Just like Briscoe, I highly doubt that we are seeing Stuckey return kickoffs any time soon. Given the choice, I'd prefer Briscoe to return the kicks, ability and everything else being equal - we have quite a few weapons on offense if worse were to come to worse with Dez, but on defense we are woefully short on proven commodities. And, considering that Dez has proven in real game action that he is capable of excelling at such duties, while Stuckey hasn't returned one before, probably means that Briscoe is the better returner.

So, hopefully we won't see #25 back there. Let's just put it that way. Unless, of course, he's awesome. Then, you still probably won't see him.

Isiah Barfield (rsSoph.)

He received the brunt of the work in the Spring Game, along with Darrell Stuckey, so he has to go on here. Really, given the star quality of the other two players, he has to be the odds-on favorite. At least to receive the majority of the kickoffs. The non-essential ones. Barfield's once-promising future at cornerback is pretty much done, now, given the fact he's been moved over to wide receiver. If you wanted a quote to sum up the quick descension:

Played in the first four games of the season, but did not play again until the bowl game against Minnesota...

And yes, he started the third and fourth games of the season (@ South Florida and vs. Sam Houston State). He wasn't the hyped recruit that Marcus Herford was coming into college, but like Marcus he may have to form a niche as a kick return specialist to see the field consistently. Barfield's smaller than Herford, which is probably a good thing; the biggest problem with Herford seemed to be a complete inability to move laterally. He either had a seam and ran through it, or simply ran into an oncoming tackler around the 18. There isn't any video of Barfield returning kicks, but he can't be worse than last year.

Right?

The Field

I thought about putting names here, but really I'd just be pulling them out of my ass. When fall practice starts in a month-or-so, we can try and figure out who is getting practice reps. Until then, we'll leave the guessing alone. We do know that all three of the above names should at least contend for the job, and we should probably be fairly certain that any combination will do better than last year's dreadful performance.

But, I wouldn't bet against the Field on this one, either. There are a handful of guys who are buried on the depth chart but could probably do a halfway decent job here. So, yeah, don't write anybody off, really.

Except Todd. It's probably fairly certain he isn't running back there. Or anyone who has 'line' or 'backer' after their name. Besides that, though. Anything is possible.

So, The Solution Is...

To Be Decided.

Seriously, I almost didn't do this one because there are so few answers. If the Spring Game is any indication, then it will probably be Isiah Barfield, with Dezmon Briscoe or Darrell Stuckey coming in for the most intense games/situations.

Most likely, Briscoe will end up back there more often than I want him there, necessarily. Or more often than I seem to lead on here. He shouldn't be the guy stepping back there in the 4th quarter against Northern Colorado, but if it's close down in El Paso, he'll be back there. As long as he can handle it, and there is enough finger-crossing on the sidelines, I suppose it'd be the best move. It just freaks me out.

"I'd Rather Not Talk About It": Texas Tech 63 Kansas 21

rockchalk — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:28:47 -0000

First off, let me shoot it to you straight; I didn't finish the game. I showed up late, was watching the game on DVR, was eager to watch some live college football. Once Michael Crabtree took the screen on 3rd-and-Goal from the fifteen-or-so to make the score 42-14, I turned the TV off in dusgust. Well, that isn't entirely true; I simply pressed 'EXIT' and went on my merry way watching some other college football, including some kickass finishes between Michigan-Michigan State, Virginia-Georgia Tech and USF-Louisville.

And for that, I suppose I apologize. I still fully intend to watch the game, obviously, it's just slid down the priority chart. However, I think the action I saw provides me with sufficient evidence to analyze our problems; we can't exactly stop the pass. Like, at all. Like, our secondary is so putrid we are playing true freshman slot receivers at corner. It would have been nice to at least get a pick somewhere along the lines, maybe even force a three-and-out off of three incompletions. Anything. And yet, no matter what we did, they still ended up scoring 6, kicking the extra point and tacking another TD into Graham Harrell's Heisman profile and, more importantly, the scoreboard.

When hiphop from over at KJ-IBT claimed that this was Kansas' worst loss in the school's history, he wasn't far off. In fact, given our status as favorites against a Top 10 team (#8, to be exact) and the importance it contained over our national perception and all of that fun stuff, expectations were countless. We were expected to perform, and in a big way, whether we lost or won. As the week of the game wore on, I began to have mixed feelings regarding the game. Some of the time, I was incredibly confident, considering our homefield advantage and that one QB we have. And others, I was sure we would lose, considering our porous pass defense and, well, the fact that the Red Raiders were ranked #8 in the entire freakin' country. But were we to lose, I wouldn't be devastated. Of course not. I mean, I just explained that Tech is the better team, and most of us knew that coming in. But all of us, even including Texas Tech fans, fully expected a close, offensively-enthused shootout. Excitment was to abound.

Uhh, no. Not so much. The Red Raiders showed up to the game; I'm not so sure our defense actually did. Honestly, did you see a BCS-conference D out there? Sure, we have plenty of D-1 talent. At least I'm pretty sure we do. But it is painfully obvious that we are desperately thin in the defensive secondary, with only one good corner (Chris Harris), while Kendrick Harper most likely isn't 100%, because he isn't nearly the player he was last year or this year prior to his injury. And our trio of young, raw freshmen aren't near ready enough to play. I think Corrigan Powell could be a big-time stud in the future, but he isn't Texas Tech-ready yet; not by a longshot.

Let's just consider that the first, incredibly obvious bullet point to discuss. Here are the rest of them, all of them much shorter than the four-paragraph-opening discussion on our porous pass defense.

Jake Sharp was the lone bright spot in Saturday's game. I mean, where was he the first four games of the season? I'm not complaining or nothing, but he looks entirely different and has for the past couple of games. Even way better than last season. Hopefully he can bring this for 12 games next year, and with some better athletes, potentially, a more-experienced overall team, we can have some big-time success. Yeah, that-a-way, let's already look towards next season. My oh my, what a single, blowout loss can do to a fan's psyche.
This ties in with the whole cant-stop-the-pass thing, but we desperately need some pass rush. What seemed to be some breakout performances from Laptad and Onyegbule against Iowa State and Colorado has quickly turned into a decent game against OU and an absolutely terrible game against the Red Raiders. I realize that the Texas Tech's offensive line is ridiculous, but it would be nice to at least force Harrell to have to scamper away. Oh, and yes, I do realize that we got two late sacks. Congratulations. Not to be a bitch about it, but it doesn't quite mean as much when the score is so out-of-reach. Means a helluva lot less. Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope that they can emerge as legitimate pass-rush threats. I'm just not holding my breath.
Clint Bowen isn't the only one to blame. Of course, I also defended Mike Solari in his first year as the Chiefs' Offensive Coordinator, but I tend to ere on the side of caution as far as giving coordinators time. However, sticking with the Mike Solari angle, there seems to be plenty of similarities. Both were 'company men' who were promoted to a job they had zero experience in from within the organization, with the effort to 'stay consistent' with the respective schemes. Of course, Solari proved he was entirely incompetent as an Offensive Coordinator and Bowen has yet to really prove he can be a Defensive Coordinator. I am entirely willing to give him the rest of the year, but he better start showing some stuff, and the sooner the better.
One last thing. I am actually worried about this game. Kansas State didn't completely roll-over-and-die like I expected against Boomer Sooner this past Saturday, and J-Free has looked like, oh, I dunno, a legitimate college QB. He isn't making many mistakes and is efficiently running their offense. And if we lose to the Powercats, at home, then it will almost be like 2007 never even happened, and we'll be right back to the any-bowl-makes-me-happy attitude. An attitude I hate, by the way. Ugh.

Honestly, I couldn't have even imagined one single loss could have demoralized me so much. Coming into the Texas Tech game, I almost expected a loss. And it wouldn't hurt us too bad, as long as we beat K-State and the Cornhuskers. But the way we lost, with our complete inability to stop any ball that left Graham Harrell's hand, has completely ruined my faith in the majority of our team, but more specifically the defensive secondary.

We've just gotta bea thte Powercats.