SB Nation - Maxwell Onyegbule

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

You expected some other way to start out this post?

Every Border War win feels a little bit more triumphant than other wins, but this year packs a bit of extra meaning. Missouri has a chance to end both Todd Reesing's career and Mark Mangino's tenure in Lawrence with a single victory; meanwhile, Reesing and Mangino have a chance to extend their lives with an upset win in what is potentially their last game together.

I'll say this out front: I try to tune extracurricular detail out of these previews. I said last week that I don't necessarily believe in a positive Senior Day effect, and just the same, I doubt there is any net gain or loss to things like Kansas fighting for Mark Mangino's life in Lawrence. Extra emotion can go either way in the end, but let's just say this: I expect both Missouri and Kansas to bring their respective A-games to Arrowhead; and really, it shouldn't be any other way.

Offense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Once again, KU is a strong Passing Downs team, but they have only been a good overall offense instead of a great overall offense. And with their defense struggling for much of the season, good hasn't really cut it.

Kansas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	115.0 (30)	104.1 (48)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	112.4 (23)	100.0 (62)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	121.3 (37)	110.1 (46)

Rushing S&P+	109.2 (41)	111.2 (39)
Passing S&P+	116.9 (30)	98.2 (62)

Standard Downs S&P+	118.4 (24)	112.7 (31)
Passing Downs S&P+	131.4 (17)	95.0 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	127.8 (17)	110.5 (44)

Q1 S&P+	106.1 (65)	90.2 (85)
Q2 S&P+	121.4 (24)	121.6 (29)
Q3 S&P+	144.4 (4)	106.9 (47)
Q4 S&P+	128.3 (11)	115.3 (28)

1st Down S&P+	125.8 (12)	108.0 (44)
2nd Down S&P+	122.7 (29)	99.4 (62)
3rd Down S&P+	117.6 (34)	113.7 (38)

Line Yards+	104.6 (53)	103.7 (46)
Close Sack Rate+	91.9 (69)	90.8 (73)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	107.3 (59) / 85.5 (81)	102.5 (57) / 116.4 (39)

As you'll see, both offenses have significant advantages in this one, so the game could come down to which individual playmakers step up the most. Danario Alexander and Sean Weatherspoon, or Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier and Darrell Stuckey? Blaine Gabbert or Todd Reesing?

When KU Has the Ball...
KU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KU Passing	Advantage: KU
Best Time for KU:	Q1, Q3
Best Time for Missouri:	Q2

Mizzou Advantages:

Passing Downs Sack Rate+

And for KU...

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Passing S&P+
Standard, Passing Downs S&P+
Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd Down S&P+

No matter what happens in this game, Missouri will once again end up with a more successful regular season than Kansas. This has been the norm with Gary Pinkel against Mark Mangino. That said, it's pretty easy to see that KU has a number of matchup advantages to work with, and if Todd Reesing is dialed in and playing well, this game is a complete tossup shootout.

Mizzou's path to success, however, comes on Passing Downs. They must successfully blitz on those downs; if they do, KU's other advantages can be negated pretty quickly.

Quarterback

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Todd Reesing: 276-for-441 passing (62.6%), 3,118 yards (7.1 per pass), 18 TD, 9 INT

As a whole, Reesing has certainly put up solid numbers this year; however, after QB ratings in the 148-150 range both of his first two years as a starter, his has fallen to just 131.4 this year, and he has been every bit as all-or-nothing as in years past. Against Iowa State, he went 37-for-49 for 442 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT; he followed that up with another 401 yards against Colorado. Then, against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, he went a combined 42-for-77 (54.5%) for 405 yards (5.3 yards per pass), 1 TD, 3 INTs, and a sub-100 QB rating. We should all expect to see his best performance tomorrow, but anything less than his best might not get the job done.

Running Back

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

Toben Opurum: 133 carries, 554 yards (4.2 per carry), 9 TD, 13 receptions, 105 yards (8.1 per catch), 1 TD
Jake Sharp: 95 carries, 400 yards (4.2 per carry), 4 TD; 26 receptions, 188 yards (7.2 per catch), 3 TD
Rell Lewis: 10 carries, 60 yards

Toben Opurum is out with an injury, but I cannot really say I can tell any difference whatsoever between Opurum and Jake Sharp. Their numbers suggest that they are virtually the same running back. Opurum is a bit bigger, and Sharp is a bit faster, but in all, KU's running game probably will not get going that much on Saturday (knock on wood). Mizzou's rush defense has improved considerably throughout this season, and if they can stop Sharp and get to Reesing on passing downs, they should win. It's if they don't get to Reesing where the problems may start...

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

WR Kerry Meier: 92 receptions, 931 yards (10.1 per catch), 6 TD
WR Dezmon Briscoe: 70 receptions, 1,095 yards (15.6 per catch), 7 TD
WR Jonathan Wilson: 35 receptions, 449 yards (12.8 per catch)
WR Bradley McDougald: 31 receptions, 285 yards (9.2 per catch)

TE Tim Biere: 12 receptions, 134 yards (11.2 per catch)

KU's Border War strategy last year was very effective; what's scary is, Mizzou has become even more vulnerable to that sort of strategy in 2009. If Mizzou is unable to corral the short pass, Reesing could very easily go over 400 yards. If Mizzou fans are having nightmares tonight, it is probably because of Meier and Briscoe.

Offensive Line

Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

KU's offensive line has been distinctly average in 2009, improving slightly as the year has progressed. Mizzou's line, meanwhile, has also improved as the year has progressed, particularly in terms of line yards and passing down sack rates. If Mizzou can win this matchup by quite a bit, it could negate the passing advantage KU appears to have.

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Defense

Kansas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

While the offense actually got better, the defense got measurably worse despite nine returning starters (sound familiar, Mizzou fans?). They lost a second-team All-American in James McClinton at defensive tackle--the only loss other than Aqib Talib--and it seems to have made a difference.

Kansas was a bit worse defending the pass, a lot worse at defending the run, and in particular they gave up a ton more big plays (PPP+). This year, they return their entire secondary and three of four starters on the defensive line (losing only end Russell Brorsen)...but lose all three starting linebackers. So the passing numbers improve and the rushing numbers regress, maybe?

I was half-right above. The rushing numbers have certainly regressed ... but then, so have the passing numbers. After some adjustments resulted in better defensive play in the middle of the season, KU's defense just has not been able to maintain a spark. They looked good at times against both Kansas State and Nebraska in recent weeks, but their breakdowns have been killers, as evidenced by the fact that they rank a ridiculous 93rd in PPP+. Mizzou's big-play ability, matched with KU's inability to stop the big play, represent Mizzou's single biggest advantage.

KU Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.3 (82)	117.2 (27)
Close Success Rate+	96.2 (76)	108.4 (37)
Close PPP+	87.4 (93)	133.1 (21)

Rushing S&P+	84.0 (107)	107.6 (47)
Passing S&P+	99.9 (57)	125.9 (17)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (85)	114.6 (28)
Passing Downs S&P+	106.3 (50)	109.5 (53)

Red Zone S&P+	92.3 (87)	85.9 (104)

Q1 S&P+	106.0 (53)	118.1 (42)
Q2 S&P+	107.9 (54)	115.1 (44)
Q3 S&P+	86.2 (98)	122.8 (22)
Q4 S&P+	92.6 (79)	105.8 (55)

1st Down S&P+	94.2 (77)	120.2 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	97.0 (69)	108.5 (53)
3rd Down S&P+	102.1 (60)	110.1 (57)

Line Yards+	94.1 (84)	97.7 (77)
Close Sack Rate+	135.7 (16)	150.0 (28)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	141.6 (19) / 112.2 (48)	251.2 (10) / 113.6 (51)

When they are not forcing turnovers, this unit is simply not getting the job done.

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: Mizzou
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KU:	First Half
Best Time for Missouri:	Second Half

MU's advantages:

Close SR+, PPP+, S&P+
Rushing, Passing S&P+
Standard Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
1st, 2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

KU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+

As with Mizzou's defense, KU's defense has few advantages, but can use what they have to great benefit. If KU is able to hold Mizzou to three points instead of seven by shutting things down in the red zone, then they will find it a lot easier to outscore Mizzou.

Defensive Line

So if KU felt the absence of James McClinton more than any other in 2008, then it's up to either Jamal Greene (21 tackles, 7 TFL/sacks) to become a much more consistent force or Jeff City's own Richard Johnson (14 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks) to overtake him if KU's run defense is to improve. If not them, then who? Man-beast Darius Parish moved to OL. Somehow, someway, there needs to be a better push up the middle.

And on the outside too. Solid-not-spectacular end Jake Laptad (8.5 TFL/sacks) offers hope for a pass rush, but he'll need help. The lack of a pass rush was bad enough last year that LB James Holt moved to end toward the end of the year, and KU fans seem to have hope that 4-star JUCO transfer Quintin Woods will thrive pretty quickly. The other options (Jeff Wheeler, Maxwell Onyegbule, or some younger guy) don't seem ready or capable, so all eyes are on Woods. If Woods doesn't catch on, KU fans start getting worried.

DE Jake Laptad: 37.0 tackles, 12.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 6 QBH
DE Max Onyegbule: 23.5 tackles, 10.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 5 QBH
DT Caleb Blakesley: 12.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
DT Richard Johnson: 12.0 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 QBH
DE Jeff Wheeler: 11.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 8 QBH

As with many highly-touted JUCO transfers (hello, Jocques Crawford ... and Andy Maples, for that matter), Quintin Woods came to Lawrence with much ado and produced almost nothing. He has a whopping four tackles for the season. Which means my prediction more or less came true -- Woods didn't catch on, and the KU defensive line was a liability, at least against the run. Rushing the passer, they've been pretty solid. Laptad (6.5 sacks), Wheeler (5.5) and Onyegbule (5.0) have all had their moments, and KU has been at its most successful getting pressure on the passer while not committing LBs to the blitz. They've been a sieve against the run, though.

Linebackers

While the RB situation isn't in wonderful shape right now, it's still no surprise that Angus Quigley was moved from RB to LB. There's clearly a major void in terms of proven playmakers, so really at this point Kansas just needs as many warm bodies as possible to throw out there and see what they've got. Never say never, but it's hard to see this unit gelling into a solid unit quickly. Whether they call it this or not, you do have to figure that with an experienced secondary, KU will be playing a lot of 4-2-5 or nickel coverage.

LB Drew Dudley: 64.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 4 QBH
LB Huldon Tharp: 44.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Arist Wright: 34.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 PBU, 2 QBH
LB Justin Springer: 18.5 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 2 QBH

True freshman Huldon Tharp has gotten some good press recently for racking up a large number of tackles in recent weeks; but that's all they are: tackles. He is not much of a disruptive force -- much more Luke Lambert than future Sean Weatherspoon. Drew Dudley, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise. With Angus Quigley failing to figure out the LB position in just one offseason (that is the norm, not the exception), Dudley, a junior, has stepped up and made a decent number of plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The LB corps has been solid in pass coverage, but their run support and blitzing have, as a whole, left something to be desired.

Secondary

As devoid of experience that the KU linebacker corps is, the secondary is the polar opposite. Five players with solid starting experience return, led by Mizzou killer Darrell Stuckey, who almost single-handedly fended off the Tiger offense for the entire first half last November at Arrowhead. ... Mark Mangino has some interesting ingredients, and he's not afraid to shuffle things around. Justin Thornton's been around forever (seems like just yesterday that he was getting decapitated by Tony Temple at Faurot Field), and while he's a proven commodity, he's also in Mangino's doghouse. If he doesn't end up starting (I assume he will, but...well, Mangino's got an angry side), then it looks like Anthony Davis will be the man opposite Daymond Patterson at CB. Both are sophomores. Meanwhile, junior safety Chris Harris was a star freshman in 2007 before losing his starting spot last year. He still managed the second-most successful tackles in the secondary in 2008, however, and I'm going to figure he'll still play a role opposite Phil Strozier and Stuckey.

CB Chris Harris: 67.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 7 PBU
S Darrell Stuckey: 66.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 PBU, 1 QBH
S Justin Thornton: 58.0 tackles, 3.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
S Lubbock Smith: 32.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
CB Daymond Patterson: 27.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 5 PBU
CB D.J. Beshears: 16.0 tackles, 1 PBU
CB Anthony Davis: 14.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
S Ryan Murphy: 11.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FR, 2 PBU, 2 QBH
S Phil Strozier: 11.0 tackles, 1 PBU, 1 QBH

It's been a strange year for the KU secondary. Relatively speaking, it has still somewhat been a strength of this defense, but 2009 has seen all sorts of personnel shuffling and slump busting. Career doghouse resident Chris Harris has turned out to be the star of the secondary (again), while Justin Thornton has, at times, taken Harris' place in the doghouse. Darrell Stuckey has certainly been good, but he hasn't quite lived up to my own expectations for him. Meanwhile, Lubbock Smith emerged as a potential leader in the secondary but has been hindered recently by injury. He is a game-time decision.

In all, this is a crafty, experienced secondary, and I'm sure that, if given the opportunity, they will take advantage of any mistakes by Blaine Gabbert or any drops by Mizzou receivers. That said, they still aren't quite as scary as I thought they would be, and I'm a lot more confident in Mizzou's potential ability to win a shootout than I was a couple of months ago.

Special Teams

KU was decent in the kicking and punt return games, but kick returns produced eight yards fewer in 2008, and that really can make a pretty big difference. It might help explain how KU's Offensive S&P+ actually improved in 2008, yet KU scored 10 fewer points per game. Dez Briscoe was outstanding in limited opportunities, but it seems KU is making a concerted effort not to wear him out (Jeremy Maclin managed to do it all, ahem...just sayin'...), and early indications (according to Rock Chalk Talk) are that sophomore Isiah Barfield might take over the duties, at least to start.
If KU gets anything from the kick return game, this is a decent special teams unit, not as good as Nebraska's (NU really does seem to have the best special teams unit in the North at this point), but solid. Alonso Rojas leaves something to be desired punting, but this is an offensive conference--kicks matter a hair more than punts, right?

Punt Returns Rank: 83rd (Daymond Patterson: 20 returns, 8.2 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 73rd (Alonso Rojas: 48 punts, 41.4 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 51st (Bradley McDougald: 20 returns, 19.2 avg; Dez Briscoe: 16 returns, 23.9 avg, 1 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 90th (Jacob Branstetter: 60 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks)

Field Goals: 80th (Jacob Branstetter: 12-for-18, long: 57)
PATs: 78th (Jacob Branstetter: 38-for-40)

In all, special teams are a giant "meh" unit. They are average to below average in both place-kicking and punting, and their return units are, Dez Briscoe aside, average as well. In all, Mizzou should be able to flip the field rather well with Jake Harry, and Mizzou's average return units might find at least some moderate success. But Briscoe is the key. To avoid overuse, Briscoe has not been the key return man this year, but he showed what he could do if given the opportunity with his effortless TD return last weekend in Austin. I get the sneaking suspicion that Briscoe will be the main return man tomorrow, and ... well, that scares the living daylights out of me. IF Mizzou doesn't give up serious field position and/or a touchdown in the kicking game tomorrow, they win the special teams battle. But with the way Mizzou has been covering on kickoffs, that's a huge if.

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Three Keys to the Game

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

MU's Running Game

Most of the previews, this one included, has focused on these two teams' respective passing games, but if Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Prediction

Gotta say, I do NOT like how well KU is capable of running the short passing game considering how vulnerable Mizzou has been to just that over the last few weeks. That is just not a matchup I like for Mizzou. However, Mizzou's own big-play ability might neutralize that a bit, and besides ... it's not like I let my own feelings get in the way of these predictions anyhow, right? The numbers say Mizzou by 4.7, so we'll go with Mizzou 31, Kansas 26. Nothing between a 17-point win for Mizzou and a 17-point win for Kansas would surprise me, but being that the last two games have both gone down to the wire, we can probably expect more of the same here.

Anatomy of Explosion: Four Plays, 76 Yards Against Kansas

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:39:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Abate - AP

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Context

After a three and out on the first possession offensively highlighted by John Chiles running onto the field late on the first play, causing an offensive linemen to false start after being set for far too long and another mistake by Chiles when he failed to run the proper route, earning himself an earful of criticism from his quarterback, the Texas defense forced a three and out by the Kansas offense, highlighted by Chykie Brown's sack on third down. Then, Clark Ford earned himself a membership in the Block Party by deflecting the subsequent punt, but Kansas was fortunate enough to get a big bounce after the block, with the ball rolling all the way down to the Texas 24 yardline.

With nearly half the first quarter already expired, the Longhorns needed to establish some offensive momentum and begin gaining separation from the Jayhawks. The first order of business -- banishing John Chiles to the bench after his poor performance on the first drive. The second order of business -- continuing to throw the football against an overmatched secondary and getting the ball in the hands of offensive playmakers. Surprisingly, James Kirkendoll should now be included in that group after solid play of late.

The Plays

1st and 10 Texas 24

The Longhorns open their second drive of the game in the empty set. For the purposes of this play, the important players are at the top of the screen -- Jordan Shipley in the slot and Marquise Goodwin split wide. Kansas is playing nickel with two deep safeties and the boundary corner at the top of the screen well off Goodwin -- the perfect time for a screen pass.

It is indeed a screen pass to Goodwin. Notice that the four Kansas down linemen all sold out on their pass rush, while three Texas offensive linemen released into the flat to block for the freshman speedster, setting up a 4-on-3 situation with the three Kansas defenders on that side of the field -- the cornerback, safety, and Will linebacker. If Charlie Tanner can block the linebacker and Chris Hall can block the safety, the play should work.

Tanner doesn't get a great block on the linebacker, but does well enough to allow Goodwin to get past him. Notice #90, Maxwell Onyegbule, the older brother of potential 2011 target Miles Onyegbule, who may well become one of the first members of the 2011 recruiting class, pursuing Goodwin with an angle on the world-class athlete. Notice, as well, the safety Justin Thornton just in front of Dan Buckner, who will also take an excellent angle on the play. However, the most important player at this point is Chris Hall, who must lay the block on the safety to spring Goodwin. Hall does, doing a good job of cutting the safety and knocking him off his feet.

There's Onyegbule, who almost catches Goodwin, with the advantage of a running start and the angle -- still, though, extremely impressive for a 250-pound defensive end. Ultimately, though Onyegbule can't bring Goodwin down, he probably slows him down just enough for the cornerback Shipley blocked earlier, Daymond Patterson, and Thornton to eventually catch up with him.

Patterson catches up Goodwin first -- and Goodwin may have picked up more yardage on the play had Shipley held his block longer, though he did his job more than adequately, but Goodwin stiff arms the defender behind him while still maintaing his forward momentum to help him pick up 34 yards by the end of the play.

The stiff arm is my favorite part of the play and it's worth saying again, even though it's just about played out now -- Marquise Goodwin is a football player, not a track guy playing football. A quick aside -- re-watching part of the Oklahoma State game the other day on the airplane, Goodwin came in on a crack-back block that probably wasn't even called by the coaches since it's something Texas rarely if ever does, and laid a lick on a linebacker to allow Cody Johnson to get the edge. Kid will mix it up.

1st and 10 Kansas 42

The Longhorns bring in Cody Johnson and EBS in their 11 personnel grouping, while Malcolm Williams also comes on the field as the split end. Notice that Kansas has a linebacker matched up against Shipley in the slot and is walking the safety on Williams' side of the field up into the box expecting a run from Johnson.

In all likelihood, there was a running play called, especially since Texas hadn't called a run on any of the first four plays from scrimmage. McCoy probably checks out of the run when he sees the safety walking up to the line of scrimmage and the cornerback well off of Williams. Notice that the Texas offensive line still run blocks on the play, which may slow down the cornerback going against Williams if the cornerback is pattern matching and reading the EMLOS (End Man on the Line Of Scrimmage), a common tactic in that coverage. In this case, though, the cornerback is watching Williams all the way and comes up to make the play, but not before Williams picks up almost three yards.

2nd and 7 Kansas 40

Texas stays with the 11 personnel group, with Cody Johnson on the left side of McCoy. Notice that Kansas has once again walked their safety up into the box with the three linebackers, giving Kansas an 8-on-6 advantage against the run.

For whatever reason, McCoy doesn't check out of the run this time and Johnson gets the hand off on the pseudo counter. Hey, let's play a fun game! It's called, "Where's Cody?" Much like "Where's Waldo," this game involves finding Johnson in the teeming mass of players at the line of scrimmage. Give up? Yeah, I don't really know where he is either, but he didn't get far, losing one yard on the play.

3rd and 9 Kansas 41

Surprisingly, the Longhorns stay in with their 11 personnel grouping, even keeping Johnson out on the field. For Kansas, it should be an indication that the Longhorns plan to throw the ball down the field, as this is basically a maximum protection look in a situation where they normally bring Dan Buckner into the game at flex tight end. Notice that Kansas is in nickel, with two deep safeties, while the cornerbacks give James Kirkendoll and Shipley big cushions.

Kansas only brings four, so both Greg Smith and Cody Johnson release on their routes, but the important player here is Kirkendoll at the bottom of the shot. It's hard to see in a picture, but Kirkendoll is chopping his feet, selling a hitch route or comeback and the cornerback comes out of his backpedal and begins breaking on the play, jumping the route. Here's another look a split second later:

That's Kirkendoll at the bottom right, accelerating past the flat-footed defender.

The defender attempts to recover, but Kirkendoll has the necessary separation and McCoy hits him in stride for a 41-yard touchdown pass and the lead, 7-0. Notice that the safety stopped backpedalling as soon as Kirkendoll began chopping his feet and took away the inside route, but didn't stay deep enough to remain over the top against the double move, leaving only fake plastic grass in front of Kirkendoll after he beat the cornerback.

Final Totals

Four plays, 76 yards, 1:34 expired. McCoy completed three passes for 77 yards, one to Goodwin for 34 yards, one to Williams for two yards, and one to Kirkendoll for 41 yards. Cody Johnson ran the ball once for a loss of a yard. Two good blocks on the screen by Charlie Tanner (less so) and Chris Hall (more so).

Final Verdict

The drive generated momentum for Texas and got the Kansas defense on their heels, setting the stage for future dominance. Long, sustained drives may tire a defense, but a drive featuring one or more explosive plays demoralizes the defense and highlights the separation in terms of talent between the teams. Though Kansas commendably didn't give up, as they could have given the circumstances surrounding their head coach, a team with less mental toughness, like, say, Texas A&M, might have started to doubt and started to give less then full effort.

The drive also highlighted some excellent playcalling by the much-maligned Greg Davis, who made an excellent call on the screen to Goodwin, then saw something on film ($) against Kansas he exploited with the pass to Kikendoll:

We called it third-and-medium. They were really down-and-distance conscious, so we wanted to call a pump-and-go the first chance we got on third-and-medium. We called a pump route for Kirkendoll. He ran a great route, and Colt really laid it in there.

From the sound of it, Davis was just waiting to call the play, knowing it was almost guaranteed to be a success. It was and the play got the Longhorn offensive juggernaut rolling on the night and it wouldn't slow down much until the late stages of the game, after the outcome had long been decided.

Back to the Goodwin play -- not only did the Longhorns have favorable match ups with the cornerback and safety on that side of the field well off the ball, but it got the ball to Goodwin in a position to make a play, something the Longhorns haven't done enough of in recent weeks. And guess what, it worked. Later in the game, McCoy took a shot downfield to Goodwin and though the pass wasn't completed, it's still the type of play Texas should run to Goodwin once or twice a game. He hasn't hooked up yet with McCoy on a long pass this season, but when he does, it will probably go for a touchdown regardless of where on the field the ball was snapped.

Since Greg Davis believes in taking what the defensive gives him, it's no surprise that Texas didn't run the ball much early in the game, as Kansas often loaded up the box, as they did on two plays on this drive. Combined with what Davis saw as a susceptible secondary and it resulted in a lot of throws early in the game. It's not clear why Kansas was so worried about the run, but if teams sit back with two safeties deep in a nickel, the Longhorns should be able to run the football enough against anyone to keep the chains moving.

Hawk Talk: Kansas Senior Day

Denverjhawk — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:00:24 -0000

News and Notes from the Week that was and the game to come...

The Good Guys...

Current losing streak hurts the Jayhawks.
Spread offenses falling out of favor in the Big12?
Opurums touches dwindle as Sharp returns.
KU Seniors final season not what they'd hoped.
Daymond Patterson fighting for playing time.
Nebraska front four a tough challenge for Kansas.

Denver's Take...

Short and sweet. Kansas is going to have to dig down deep and find something within themselves that hasn't been their for four weeks. Nebraska couldn't be a tougher challenge for this offense on the ropes but on Senior day I'm cautiously optimistic that the fire and passion returns. It has too or this season on a the brink goes down the tubes.

Some powerful words came out of some Kansas players this week and the first real sign that their still is some fire in the belly. Now it's time to translate it to the field. If any extra motivation was needed, look to Suh's quote about kicking a dog while he's down. In case you were wondering Kansas is the dog he's referring to.

I'll be in the seats for this one, an OGT will be up about a half hour before the game so enjoy and let's get a win, hell let's see if we can hang 77 on these guys...mmmm...that might be a stretch. Let's just find a way to win.

More Notes and Things to Look for After the Jump...

SENIOR DAY -- Saturday's game will be the final home appearance for the following seniors: LS Kayl Anderson, DT Caleb Blakesley, WR Kerry Meier, DE Maxwell Onyegbule, WR Raimond Pendleton, OL Jose Rodriguez, LB Angus Quigley, QB Todd Reesing, LB Jake Schermer, RB Jake Sharp, DE Dustin Spears, S Darrell Stuckey, S Justin Thornton, DE Jeff Wheeler, LB Arist Wright.

SENIOR NOTES -- Here are a few notes on this year's senior class:

In the last four seasons, the group is a combined 31-16 with three regular season games remaining.
Has posted a 21-5 record at home.
Has been to bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history.
Has posted KU's best two Big 12 North finishes tying for first in 2007 and placing third in 2008.
Has five players who have started at least 20 games (S Darrell Stuckey 39, QB Todd Reesing 35, WR Kerry Meier 35, DT Caleb Blakesley 29, S Justin Thornton 27).

KU-NU SERIES -- Nebraska leads the all-time series by an 89-23-3 count, including a 46-8-1 advantage in games played in Lawrence. Kansas has won the last two meetings in Lawrence, posting a 75-39 victory in 2007 and a 40-15 win in 2005. The 2005 victory snapped a 36-game losing streak to the Huskers, which began in 1969. Since that streak, the teams have split the last four games with the home team winning each time, including a 39-32 overtime victory by the Huskers in 2006 and last year's 45-35 NU win in Lincoln.

KU-NU IS NATION'S LONGEST UNINTERRUPTED SERIES -- The Kansas-Nebraska series will be played for the 104th consecutive year. That marks the nation's longest uninterrupted series. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be meeting for the 103rd time this year. KU and NU first met in 1892 and actually played 12 straight years until not playing each other in 1904 or 1905. Since resuming the series in 1906 the
teams have met every season.

SERIES IS THIRD-MOST PLAYED AS WELL -- The 115 prior meetings between the Jayhawks and Huskers rank as the third-most played rivalry in FBS history behind 118 games between Minnesota and Wisconsin and 117 games between Kansas and Missouri.

KU-NU LAST YEAR -- Nebraska outscored Kansas 31-21 in the second half en route to a 45-35 victory on a cold (35 degrees with 21 mile per hour winds) in Lincoln in 2008. The teams were tied at 14 at halftime behind Todd Reesing touchdown passes to Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe. KU led 21-17 with 4:32 left in the third quarter before NU's Roy Helu, Jr., scored twice. KU fought back with a Jake Sharp touchdown with 9:55 left in the game to come within 31-28 before the Huskers iced the game with two straight touchdowns. Reesing became the Kansas all-time passing yardage leader on his scoring toss to Meier. He finished the day 15 of 30 for 304 yards and three touchdowns, while Briscoe caught six passes for 176 yards and Sharp rushed 22 times for 90 yards. Darrell Stuckey recorded a team-high 15 tackles. NU produced 495 yards of offense to 422 by Kansas as the Huskers controlled the ball for 34:46.

KU-NU LAST TIME IN LAWRENCE -- Todd Reesing threw a school-record six touchdown passes and had 354 yards through the air, while Brandon McAnderson ran for 119 yards and a school-record tying four touchdowns as then No. 8 Kansas defeated Nebraska 76-39 in Lawrence on Nov. 3, 2007. After a three and out on its first possession, the Jayhawks scored on 10 of their next 11 possessions (exception was a one play kneel down to end the first half). KU's 76 points were the third-most in team history, as well as the most allowed by Nebraska in its history. The Jayhawks ran 90 plays en route to 572 yards of total offense. Reesing set school records for touchdown passes in a game (six) and in a single-season (23). Four of his TD passes came in the first half to four different receivers. KU forced four straight Nebraska turnovers in the second half, while forcing five on the day.

THINGS TO LOOK FOR AGAINST NEBRASKA:

WR Kerry Meier (2,082) needs 80 receiving yards to pass Mark Simmons (2,161) for third on the KU career receiving yardage list.
Meier (16) needs one touchdown catch to tie Willie Vaughn and Bruce Adams (17 each) for second on the KU career list. Dezmon Briscoe is first at 28.
Meier has caught at least two passes in 30 consecutive games.
Meier (197) and Briscoe (196) are just shy of 200 receptions for the their career. Jordy Nelson of Kansas State is 10th on the Big 12 career list with 206.
Briscoe has caught at least four passes in 12 straight games and at least two in 27 in a row.

Husker Offense vs Jayhawks: Play It Conservative, Or Let ‘er Rip?

Jon Johnston — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:36:10 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

Helu, explosive!

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For most of the season, I've done a "Keys to Victory" article. In mid-November that format seems next to worthless. Anyone who's watched this team this season knows that turnovers will be the biggest key to this game. Both teams have struggled with them. Kansas quarterback Todd Reesing has played horrifically at times this season. For Nebraska, the Iowa State game might have been an anomaly, but eight turnovers are still the 800-pound gorilla that cannot be ignored.

So instead of doing a "keys" article, I'm going to focus on what the offense needs to do to win.....

The Oklahoma game appeared to establish a clear blue print for the rest of the season. The game plan was simple - play it conservative, establish a strong running game, establish field position and let your defense win the game. Then Jon Nyatawa of the Omaha World Herald comes out with an article that states the exact opposite of what we were thinking:

Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson says he isn't sure that the low-risk, ground-oriented attack he went with in the win over Oklahoma is the right blueprint for victory from here on out.

"That was that week's plan," he said. "Every week's a little bit different. That's certainly not the deal this week."

It's clear from the rest of the article that neither Bo Pelini nor Watson have abandoned their desire for a ‘multiple' attack that is more productive than what we saw against Oklahoma. I don't think anyone can argue with their direction, but the bottom line is whether or not it can be successful.

Husker fans have debated (argued with homicidal tendencies?) throughout the season whether or not the offensive problems are the fault of the quarterbacks, offensive line, running back injuries, or Watson's play calling.

The offensive line has an easier task this week than last as the Jayhawks defensive line is no where near as formidable as Oklahoma. Kansas has some decent players, such as defensive ends Jake Laptad, who has 6.5 sacks this season, and Maxwell Onyegbule, who has four. They rank first and second in tackles for loss, respectively, for the Jayhawks this season. The middle should be softer than the edges, giving Watson reason to run straight ahead behind Jacob Hickman, Keith Wiliams, and Ricky Henry.

Nebraska's offensive line has had its moments, but they're not strong enough to establish a strong running game if the Jayhawks put eight or nine guys in the box. You know that is what the Jayhawks will do as Kansas will want to force Nebraska into short gains on first and second down to establish clear passing downs.

It's an obvious statement that if the Husker offense is going to be more productive, then Roy Helu needs to have another 100-yard rushing performance like he did against the Sooners. Helu can make many yards on his own, while Traye Robinson has shown he can gain yardage with tough running.

Once again Pelini has kept mum about which quarterback will be the starter, even though the drama hasn't been quite as strong this week. After last week, is there little doubt that Zac Lee will get the nod?

Zac Lee has become known as a game manager, not a playmaker. He's looked uncomfortable running the offense most of the season. Part of his problem appears to be his tentativeness in executing the running plays such as the spread option and zone read. On the option, he has a tendency to pitch the ball too soon instead of making an unblocked defender commit. On zone read plays, he's either making incorrect reads or failing to run the ball with the determined nature required in those situations. Bluntly, he looks afraid to take the hard hits.

If Lee can be tougher when executing those plays it will go a long ways towards establishing the offensive productivity that Watson is looking for because it will make defenders account for him on running plays. He will become the dual-threat player that Husker fans expected. If not, expect more of the same below average offense we've seen so far this season.

Putting It All Together in Play Calling

Given Watson's desire to be more productive, what's to be done? You could take the Nyatwa article as a red herring, meaning that Nebraska will go ahead with the heavier formations and attempt to pound the ball directly at the Jayhawks middle. Such an attack might be successful should Watson be willing to stick with it and grind it out long enough to establish some play-action passes to the tight ends.

The other benefit of this type offense would be to break the will of the Jayhawks. They're already reeling from a four-game losing streak, including a loss to in-state rival Kansas State. It may not take much to convince them their season is over.

The fear is that Kansas gets their offense going. They were picked to win the Big 12 North on the strength of Reesing, and returning receivers Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe. Meier and Briscoe account for 1,675 yards so far this season, only 138 yards less than Nebraska has in passing so far this season. If Reesing can move to avoid pressure, the Jayhawks can light it up.

If the Husker offense can't come up with some big plays in the ground game, Watson will be forced to throw the ball. That increases the risk for mistakes as neither Husker quarterback has shown great accuracy this season. The receiving corps has shown some big play ability, ala Niles Paul's long touchdown that broke the game open against Missouri, but hasn't shown any sign of consistency.

Husker fans are looking for the team to win the Big 12 North. It'd be great to have an offense that could average over 20 points per game for the rest of the season as that should be all it'll take to win them all.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Week 5 Recap

RPT — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 14:30:14 -0000

This week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Corn Nation, Bring On The Cats, Rock M Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Rock Chalk Talk, Double T Nation, Clone Chronicles, and Crimson and Cream Machine.

1. Is it time for the Big 12 to collectively pour one out for the departure of Baylor quarterback Robert "Hot Tub" Griffin? Even if your team benefits from his injury, are you sad to see one of the conference's premier playmakers done for the season?

Beergut of I Am The 12th Man sends his condolences for Baylor losing both an outstanding athlete and a role model:

I think most Big 12 bloggers have already mentioned Griffin's injury, and sent along their condolences in their own way. As I have already pointed out, Griffin's season-ending injury means my pick for first team All-Big 12 QB is done, and my pick for the upset of the year, Baylor over texas in Waco, lost its foundation. Griffin is a thrill to watch on the field when he is playing, and I think all Big 12 bloggers are college football fans at heart, regardless of our team affilitation, so we are all sad to see him out for the year. I think it is also important to note that despite Griffin's freakish athletic ability, he wasn't a brash or cocky person who talked trash or made you hate him; he let his play on the field do the talking for him, in an example of class I wish more athletes would follow. This makes Griffin's injury doubly sad, because he is a positive role model of how exceptional star athletes should act.

2. Play the role of Mythbusters for us. If you could dispel one national perception of your team, what would it be?

TB of Bring On The Cats echoes the sentiments of his colleagues in getting annoyed by the Snyder return talk:

It gets tiring to see various iterations of this theme: "Boy, K-State is bad, I bet Snyder wishes he had stayed retired!" Not because they say we are bad, because we are, but because it completely misses the boat. As bad as we are this year, it doesn't even compare to Snyder's first-first year, 1989. We hadn't won a game in three years and were thrilled when we beat a terrible North Texas team. Clearly, we are a terrible team this year, but we've won two games at this point and have at least hung around in the other two. Granted, we may have seen our last victory of the season, but rest assured that Bill Snyder has seen worse. Much, much worse.

Crimson and Cream Machine takes issue with a few perceptions, both in the long and short terms:

Well, the national perception of Oklahoma is that they are a great team that plays very well in the regular season, wins lots of conference championships but just can't seem to win a bowl game. How am I supposed to dispel that?

I guess that I could point out that Bob Stoops and his team did win the 2000 BCS Championship 13-2 over Florida State in the Orange Bowl, or the 2002 Cotton Bowl, or the 2003 Rose Bowl or even the 2005 Holiday Bowl. I just don't think those answers would suffice. Oh...wait...you mean the actual team on the field?

Well there is the perception that the offensive line if horrible and un-cohesive. I can dispel that very quickly by telling you to look at the last two games. Sure I realize that the competition was Idaho State and Tulsa but the issues with this line weren't physical they were mental. The last eight quarters of Sooner football have shown this unit to be mentally focused to reach their physical potential.

3. Give us the name of one player on each side of the ball on your team that everyone else in the conference may not know about or fully appreciate.

Husker Mike of Corn Nation sends some love the way of an emerging deep threat (and Name of the Year candidate) in the Nebraska receiving corps:

On offense, it's Curenski Gilleylen. He's the deep threat who's averaging nearly 32 yards a catch. Last year, he had the dropsies. This year, he's made some great catches on some huge gainers. Worry too much about the short stuff, and Gilleylen will beat you deep.

Alright, I redact that statement about Gilleylen winning Name of the Year. That honor could very well go to Rock Chalk Talk's defensive nominee in this category:

DE Maxwell Onyegbule. A lot of different directions I could go with this one, but I'll go with Max O. He's been dominant so far this season, finally showing the talent and ability he's only shown flashes of before this season.

Clone Chronicles talks up its under-the-radar tailback:

Alexander Robinson. I would hope everyone else has heard of him, but I don't read much about him at all. For a guy that's 10th in the nation in rushing yards so far, that's really too bad. We've heard all the hype about Helu in Nebraska, but Robinsion is a mere 9 yards behind him in total thus far.

Seth of Double T Nation finds a hidden gem and a silver lining from Tech's exodus of ends:

On the defense, how about DE Daniel Howard. I've had an obvious man-crush on Howard for the better part of the summer and part of that is because you can tell the guy is a hard worker, and although he's not as gifted as the more well-known defensive ends who left early for a various of reasons (Brandon Williams, McKinner Dixon and Brandon Sesay) he is by far one of the hardest workers you'll see at defensive end. And that's not one of those back-handed compliments (i.e., he's scrappy therefore he's a good player), but Howard is a legitimate threat and an offensive tackle cannot afford to take a play off against Howard. Thus far in this young season, Howard has been the steadying force at defensive end as Texas Tech has battled injuries, pulling in 19 tackles and 3 sacks.

4. OU vs. Da U: Who ya' got?

Here's what I had to say at Rock M Nation:

Give me Oklahoma. I know the competition hasn't been top notch, but the Sooner offense seems to have gotten its act together since Week 1. Furthermore, Miami wunderkind Jacory Harris got a dose of reality last week when the speed and aggressiveness of Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech completely threw Harris and the Miami offense off rhythm. The bad news for Miami is that Oklahoma has that same kind of speed, a better defensive line, and a somewhat similarly respected defensive mind in Brent Venables.

5. Give us your Offensive Player of the Week, Defensive Player of the Week, and Storyline of the Week for last week.

Offensive Player of the Week: In all, five players garnered nominations, and this week's honors were nearly split between two Missouri Tigers. The combined success of a prodigious Friday night in Reno made the award a race between Danario Alexander and Blaine Gabbert, with Alexander defeating his quarterback three votes to two. Other nominees included Jerrod Johnson, Brandon Banks, and Alexander Robinson.

Defensive Player of the Week: It's a tie for defensive player of the week, as conference award-winner Earl Thomas of Texas and Kansas' Chris Harris each received three votes. Texas' Emmanuel Acho and Missouri's Sean Weatherspoon each earned individual votes as well.

Storyline of the Week: As sad as it is, the tear in Robert Griffin's ACL is the runaway winner. As I type this, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe "runaway winner" was a poor choice of vocabulary.

6. Power Poll! Rank the teams 1-12 based on who would win on a neutral field.

Team (Average ranking)

1. Texas (1.000)
2. Oklahoma (2.000
3. Oklahoma State (4.250)
4. Nebraska (4.500)
5. Missouri (4.625)
6. Kansas (4.875)
7. Texas Tech (7.125)
8. Texas A&M (7.625)
9. Baylor (9.750)
10. Iowa State (10.000)
11. Kansas State (10.750)
12. Colorado (11.500)

Way Too Little, Way Too Late (The Recap, Silly) -- Kansas 44 Duke 16

rockchalk — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:48:14 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

3 months ago: Kansas wide receiver Dezmon Briscoe (80) gets past Duke cornerback Leon Wright (7) for a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Lawrence, Kan., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

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The common sentiment among bloggers and followers of Kansas football and even Jason Whitlock over Saturday's game would go something like this:

Wow. I can't believe Kansas football has come far enough to win by 28 points over a BCS opponent, and have everyone walk out of the stadium disappointed. But they should be. Kansas looked terrible in the first half, and their defense looked pedestrian at times. Todd Reesing can't get it going, and we drop way too many passes. Without Jake Sharp, no way is our running game better than last year.

In short, people -- we've arrived.

It's official. We're there. 2007 was so much fun, and so awesome, but it started to become fun just minutes into the first quarter against Central Michigan. We hadn't made a bowl the year before, and nearly every win was a celebrated occasion. We didn't know what to do with ourselves. This, of course, brought a disappointing 8-5 season, something that never would have made sense just 3 years ago. And now, after demolishing three teams, one on the road and another belonging to the ACC, there are questions everywhere. It's a good place to be. No longer are Kansas fans so excited to make a bowl and beat Missouri. That is no longer the goal. That's important. To be great, you have to strive to be great. Obviously, the team always has and always will, but it also helps when the fans are just as dissatisfied with a 28-point win over Duke as Mark Mangino.

This team isn't perfect. It isn't winning a National Championship. There are holes in all three phases, some bigger than others. But the goals are getting higher every year. This year, the Big 12 North. In another 2-3 years, the Big 12. After that, who knows. Maybe we will be holding that Crystal Football soon. But we have reached those unrealistic expectations that are necessary. It isn't Kansas basketball level yet, and hopefully it never gets that far, but it's lightyears beyond where it was when ol' Terry Allen was coach. Progress.

Thoughts on what transpired in the game, from what I can remember anyway, after the jump...

That was better, but Todd Reesing still doesn't look 100% in sync. I'm just hoping it's an increased workload in the running game (meaning less opportunities for Todd to work out the chinks) and early-season things to work out, and it isn't time to worry yet. But while Todd played 'well' on Saturday, we'll need better to win some games we need to win. Like Nebraska, for example. Although, it's tough to blame Todd much at all -- you pretend that our receivers know how to catch for a second, and he adds on another buck to his total, easy. That pass to Jonathan Wilson was the most beautiful pass I've seen in awhile, and the fact that it was dropped is a tragedy. It probably killed a kitten.
Speaking of, Jonathan Wilson has not had a strong start. Dezmon Briscoe has been Dezmon Briscoe, although even he was having a case of the dropsies. Defenses are finally getting the memo and paying attention to Kerry Meier, particularly on third down, so we'll need somebody to step up. The most obvious and likely candidate is Bradley McDougald, who continues to impress. We're thisclose to just clicking on all cylinders in the passing game, it seems, but we're just a touch off. We have another three games to work that out (although this Saturday is more troubling than some are expecting) before we really need it to be awesome.
Jake Sharp, please get healthy. Toben Opurum is an incredible talent, and will be a huge part of success in the future. And is a big part of this year's offense. But he isn't developed enough to be a true starter, piling up 25+ carries a game. And obviously, the staff doesn't feel Rell Lewis is capable of picking up 7-12 carries a game to help him out, either. So, please, Jake, just get healthy. We need you.
Maxwell Onyegbule for early-season MVP? For years, since before 2007, we've heard about this kid with potential all the way up to the ceiling and his impending breakout season. He was kind of like the Arizona Cardinals of our football team. Well, he's having his 2008 Arizona season right now, getting to the quarterback at will, picking off passes, whatever. He's destroying in one-on-one.
Our third down defense isn't really fair. It's awesome. Having Jake Laptad, Jeff Wheeler, Onyegbule and Steven Foster all in the game on the defensive line, all having one goal in mind -- to get to the quarterback -- has been deadly so far. Granted, Oklahoma and Nebraska and Texas Tech are going to have better lines than UTEP and Duke, but it's still wildly encouraging that they are getting serious, serious pressure. And frequently. Add in the blitz packages like sending Onyegbule to cover a zone, which led to the pick-six, and it really is quite aces.
But that's third down defense. Our primary D could still use some work. Particularly the defensive tackles, who yet again are failing to live up to the monstrous hype and potential surrounding them. We have a bunch of depth and a bunch of talent, but it can't quite play at its highest level on Saturdays, or something. Richard Johnson Jr. is still the best of the bunch, and Caleb Blakesley is dependable, but Jamaal Greene has been disappointing thus far. Patrick Dorsey has been a nice surprise, though, so we'll see if he can pick up more PT.

That's all I got. I know this is way late. I would say it won't happen again, but y'all know me. So I won't lie. I'll just say I'll try harder. How 'bout that?

Oh, I know. New expectations, all of that nonsense. If we're going to win a MNC, we can't have bloggers giving game recaps on Tuesday afternoons.

I'll get right on that.

Hawk Talk: Kansas vs. Duke Tailgate Edition

Denverjhawk — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 09:00:45 -0000

A look at news and notes from this week about the Jayhawks and their upcoming game....

The Good Guys...

Jake Sharp, Toben Opurum and the Kansas running game have started strong this season.
Maxwell Onyegbule earns Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week Honors for his performance in El Paso.
The Kansas defensive line has the look of an improved unit so far this season.
Jeff Spikes settling in at Right Tackle in his redshirt sophomore year.
Todd Reesing not overly impressed with his own play so far this year.
KC Star Game Preview
Whitlock does a bit of a Todd Reesing response piece to his Blaine Gabbert lovefest.
A look at the hurdles that schools like Duke and Kansas face when trying to become more than a basketball school.
Jeff Wheeler hopes to distinguish himself on an improved Kansas offensive line.
Toben brings size and maturity beyond his freshman year status.

The Bad Guys...

A look at Duke backup QB, a highly rated one at that in Sean Renfree.
Article about Todd Reesing, a former Duke recruit, from the Duke perspective.
Duke hit with a few injuries as they head to Lawrence.
..."What if Todd Reesing had Picked Duke"

Miscellaneous...

Came across this while scowering for news...it's your feel good story of the week.

Denver's Take...

Here's the thing, Kansas hasn't put together a great game to date and the passing game has been less than stellar. The staff keeps saying they are taking what other teams are giving them and that's fine but from the sounds of things Todd Reesing is getting a little fired up and ready to bring it up a notch.

If the interior line can handle Vince Oghobaase up the middle I don't have much reason to believe the Duke defense will put up much of a fight. Combine that with a Duke offensive unit that averages just 44 yards on the ground against weak opponents and this one has to have the Kansas players drooling.

I expect this game to be one where we see Kansas click a little bit more on all cylinders. I'm not saying they put the finished product together but they move closer in that direction.

Next week Southern Mississippi comes to town and they will be the first major test as UTEP proved not to be. This week Kansas puts together those final tune ups against Duke, get's some extra PT for the youngsters and heads to the final non-con game with confidence running high.

Final Score: Kansas 52 Duke 7

Supplemental Notes and more things to look for after the jump...

KU-DUKE SERIES -- Kansas and Duke will be meeting for the first time in school history. In fact, each of KU's four non-conference games this year are first-time meetings.

KU VS. THE ACC -- Kansas owns a 3-16 record against current members of the Atlantic Coast Conference with a 1-0 mark against Virginia Tech, 2-5 vs. Florida State, 0-1 vs. Georgia Tech, 0-2 vs. North Carolina, 0-2 vs. North Carolina State, 0-2 vs. Virginia and 0-4 vs. Miami. The last time KU played an ACC team was when the Jayhawks defeated league champion No. 5 Virginia Tech 24-21 in the 2008 Orange Bowl. The last time KU hosted an ACC team was a 50-10 loss to then No. 15 Virginia in 1990.

THINGS TO LOOK FOR AGAINST DUKE

KU has recorded at least three sacks in each of its last three games dating back to last year and had six at UTEP last Saturday.
RB Jake Sharp (22) needs one touchdown run to tie Brandon McAnderson and Chip Hilleary (23 each) for third on the KU career touchdowns list and two for sole possession.
Sharp (8) needs one 100-yard rushing game to tie Clark Green (9) for sixth on the KU career 100-yard rushing games list.
Sharp (60) needs two receptions to pass June Henley (61) for second on the KU career receptions by a running back list.
Sharp (162) needs seven points to pass "Touchdown" Tony Sands (168) for seventh on the KU career scoring list.
WR Dezmon Briscoe (2,057) needs 105 yards to pass Mark Simmons (2,161) for second on the KU career receiving yardage list and 210 yards to pass Willie Vaughn (2,266) for first place.
Briscoe (8) needs one 100-yard receiving game for sole possession of first on the KU career 100-yard receiving games list (currently tied with Willie Vaughn).
Briscoe (132) needs seven points to pass Chip Hilleary (138) for 10th on the KU career scoring list and 13 points to pass David Winbush (144) for ninth.
Briscoe has produced five straight 100-yard receiving games.
Briscoe has caught at least two passes in 20 consecutive games.
Meier has caught at least two passes in 23 consecutive games.
Reesing (8,046) needs 308 passing yards to pass Major Applewhite of Texas (8,353) for seventh place on the Big 12 career passing yardage list.
Reesing (657) needs 24 completions to pass Josh Freeman of Kansas State (680) for eighth and 34 completions to pass Joel Klatt of Colorado (690) for seventh on the Big 12 career completions list.
Reesing has thrown a touchdown pass in 20 consecutive games.
DE Jake Laptad (12.5) needs two sacks to pass Nick Reid (14) for ninth on the KU career sacks list.

DID YOU KNOW? -- KU has allowed only two 100-yard rushers in its last 15 games.

MANGINO TIED FOR SECOND ON KU WINS LIST -- With its 34-7 victory at UTEP on Saturday, Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino recorded his 47th victory as the Jayhawk mentor and moved into a tie for second place on the KU coaches' victories list. Mangino reached 47 wins in his 88th game to tie Glen Mason, who finished his career with a 47-54-1 mark. Both trail A.R. Kennedy, who had a 52-9-4 record from 1904-10.

ONE OF TWO -- Kansas is one of just two teams in the country to currently average at least 250 yards rushing and at least 250 yards passing, joining top-ranked Florida. The Jayhawks average 291.5 yards rushing and 270.0 yards passing through two weeks. KU's rushing average is seventh in the nation while its passing mark is 24th. Overall, KU's 561.50 yards per game rank sixth nationally. Florida is third in rushing at 330.0 and 13th in passing at 313.50 to rank first in total offense at 643.50 per game.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - 2009 Season - Week 3

Beergut — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:51:02 -0000

This is the third installment of the 2009 Big 12 Roundtable, a weekly feature during the season. Each week, an SB Nation Big 12 blogger will host the Roundtable and submit a series of questions to all Big 12 bloggers. This week, the Roundtable is being hosted by Clone Chronicles. Listed below are I Am The 12th Man's answers.

1. The Big 12 has looked more unimpressive than impressive thus far. Do you attribute this to early season struggles, or does the conference look to have regressed from '08? Please explain.

I think it is fairly obvious that the Big 12 North has pretty much fallen off the map. Colorado, Kansas State, and Iowa State are all the three worst teams in the conference thus far, in that order, and I don't think we are seeing regression from '08 as much as we are seeing the first steps of progress in Manhattan and Ames. Both Kansas State and Iowa State have new coaches (although this is Bill Snyder's second term in the Little Apple), so you're going to see some struggles as the teams adjust to new schemes, new coaches, and new personnel. Iowa State's loss to Iowa wasn't shocking inasmuch as they weren't expected to win, it was just the fact that they were blown out that was so surprising. However, when your starting quarterback throws four interceptions, and the team suffers six turnovers in all, a blowout is going to happen. As strange as it sounds, ISU has a reason to feel a little positive; they only gave up four touchdowns on those six turnovers, so it wasn't as bad as it could have been. Kansas State's loss to Louisiana-Lafayette was expected; I was upset they didn't have the game on the board at Treasure Island where I was staying in Vegas, because it cost me an attempt to make some money. K-State is still learning Snyder's new offensive scheme, and suffers from a lack of an ability to effectively pass the ball; if you can't pass the ball, you're going to struggle to win some games. Colorado is just suffering from another miserable season under Dan Hawkins; anyone who has watched the Buffaloes the previous three years is used to the disorganization and poor play this Buffs squad is displaying. While Kansas State and Iowa State are adjusting to new coaches, Colorado is showing it is time for them to begin pursuing a new coach.

The Big 12 South has been somewhat predictable, in that texas blew out a patsy on the road in a win over Wyoming, Oklahoma State showed they don't yet have a defense in a loss to Houston at home, and Texas Tech destroyed Rice in Lubbock. Oklahoma State suffering a letdown and falling short against a shootout against Houston wasn't totally unexpected; many people made money off that game in Vegas, including me. The upset loss, however, doesn't make Okie State any less dangerous as a team, it just highlights some areas on offense and defense that need to perform better. Oklahoma had a blowout win over an overmatched Idaho State team; this was another game that we can't tell much from, because Idaho State is a I-AA team, and a poor one at that. As I pointed out to wishiwasalonghorn when we talked on the phone following the game, though, despite Idaho State's 44 yards of total offense for the game, they still didn't lose 77-0. OU will get a more realistic challenge and a chance to see where they are when they play Tulsa this Saturday. texas and Texas Tech will play in what should be an exciting game for both teams as they meet in Austin on Saturday. This will be the first step towards finding out if Tech is to be taken seriously as a contendor in the Big 12 South, or if last season was just an aberration, and if texas actually has the pass rush and secondary to make it an elite defense, capable of competing against the Floridas and USCs of college football. Baylor and Texas A&M had their byes this past weekend, so there is no change in their status.

Overall, Missouri's win over a solid Bowling Green team, Nebraska's blowout win over Arkansas State, and Kansas' convincing win over UTEP showed that the Big 12 North has three teams capable of competing for the division title, while the Big 12 South might have as many as six; we'll need to see the results this weekend to make that determination. Having a possible nine teams competing for division championships is much better than last season, when we only had four making a run at it in the South, while the North was pretty much the Missouri and Kansas show. The Big 12 North is being dragged down by KSU, ISU, and CU, but that will change with more time under their new coaches, and a coaching change in Boulder. We're seeing more early season struggles overall in the conference than a conference-wide regression from '08, because overall, we have more competitive teams in the conference so far in '09.

2. When looking at our team's schedule, sometimes it's hard to get excited about non-conference portion of the schedule, except for maybe 1 game. In general, are you content with your team's non-conference scheduling? Is there an opponent you'd like to see on a regular basis, that you currently do not?

I am mostly content with our non-conference schedule, mainly because we now have a marquee non-conference games against a BCS opponent in a neutral site in the Arkansas game. I'd love it more if the opponent had been LSU, and the neutral site was in Houston to consolidate our recruiting there, but $Bill didn't want to make that move out of fear of helping LSU too much in recruiting. I guess we aren't worried about giving Arkansas a permanent inroad into Texas and Dallas recruiting with the Southwest Classic? In any case, I think you should schedule one or two bought wins at home, one mid-major somewhat competitive program, and one competitive game against a non-conference BCS opponent you might lose to. With games against Utah State and UAB, we satisfy the first criteria, with a game against UNM we satisfy the second criteria, and our game against Arkansas satisfies the third criteria; I'm happy where we are in scheduling. I do think we should be more reasonable on the ticket pricing in order to attract more fans to these early season games against so-so competition at Kyle Field, but "reasonable" and "ticket prices" are two phrases that don't go together when you are discussing $Bill.

3. Over the years we've seen a fair share of teams lose the week they appear on the SI cover. Does the "SI Curse" exist, is it a coincidence, or is it something that we only take notice of when it rings true (but forget when it does not)? Explain.

I think the 'SI Curse' is more a function of media hype and surging emotions than it is a reality. After a big win for the program that gets a player put on the front cover of a national publication, it isn't surprising that a player or team might feel cocky or overconfident going into the next game, which can lead to a letdown and an upset. People forget sometimes that we're dealing with 18-22 year olds here, and they aren't going to handle everything with the utmost maturity. Mistakes will be made, and sometimes those mistakes will lead to an upset loss. It isn't a function of a curse as much as it is a function of human nature. There is also the fact that the media, in an attempt to sell more magazines or more papers, may not look at the weaknesses of a team too deeply, ignoring the Achilles' heel of a team the week before they are exposed by their opponent. This isn't a curse as much as it is media members displaying their ignorance of football.

4. What is the biggest question your team has to answer heading into Week 3?

Are we capable of dominating two teams we should dominate two games in a row? The first weekend of the season, we showed progress from last season, being suprisingly dominant in a game against New Mexico. If we can play similarly well against Utah State, we will know that the UNM game wasn't a fluke, but a sign of change in attitude in our program, ans a step forward in our progress as a team under Mike Sherman.

5. Choose an Offensive Player of the Week (non-QB to make it a little more interesting) and Defensive Player of the Week from Week 2. Provide solid arguments for each.

Offensive Player of the Week: Well, the no-QB stipulation eliminates Taylor Potts, who rode the Texas Tech system to 7 TD passes against Rice, so I'll go with one of Potts' targets, wide receiver Tramain Swindall. Coming into the season, Lyle Leong was expected to help replace the production of Michael Crabtree, but Swindall's 6 receptions for 123 yards and 2 TDs gives Tech another weapon for defenses to be aware of. More importantly, he gives someone to punish defenses with if they focus on stopping Leong.

Defense Player of the Week: Maxwell Onyegbule, DE, Kansas

Onyegbule, a senior from Arlington, TX, had 6 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 pass breakup in his game against UTEP last Saturday. That is called "making a difference from the defensive end position", and that is why Onyegbule is my defensive player of the week in the conference.

Marlon William's 6 tackle, 3 TFL, 1 INT, 1 sack peformance for Texas Tech against Rice nearly got my vote, but I didn't want to give both awards to the same team, so Onyegbule beats him out.

6. Big 12 Power Rankings! Rank the teams 1-12 (remember, this is based on power i.e., who would win on a neutral field)

texas longhorns
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma St Cowboys
Oklahoma Sooners
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas A&M Aggies
Kansas Jayhawks
Baylor Bears
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas St Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

Bill C. — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:30:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm plowing through the data a little faster this week...hooray! We start with the most, uhh, interesting game of the week. "Interesting" from a BTBS perspective anyway.

Week 1 BTBS Box Scores

Toledo 54, Colorado 28

	Colorado	Toledo
Close %	45.3%
Field Position %	55.2%	44.4%
Leverage %	57.5%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	32.3	44.3
Close Success Rate	44.4%	46.9%
Close PPP	0.21	0.82
Close S&P	0.654	1.291

RUSHING
EqPts	7.5	21.1
Close Success Rate	58.8%	55.6%
Close PPP	0.29	0.69
Close S&P	0.882	1.245
Line Yards/carry	4.18	3.97

PASSING
EqPts	24.8	23.2
Close Success Rate	31.6%	35.7%
Close PPP	0.13	0.99
Close S&P	0.450	1.350
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.6% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	44.0%	47.6%
PPP	0.38	0.60
S&P	0.817	1.074

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	32.4%	42.9%
PPP	0.36	0.91
S&P	0.688	1.342

TURNOVERS
Number	4	2
Turnover Pts	17.8	6.2
Turnover Pts Margin	-11.6	+11.6

Q1 S&P	0.669	1.741
Q2 S&P	0.638	0.874
Q3 S&P	0.882	1.262
Q4 S&P	0.799	0.997

1st Down S&P	0.699	0.985
2nd Down S&P	0.863	1.212
3rd Down S&P	0.616	1.409

Projected Pt. Margin	-23.6	+23.6
Actual Pt. Margin	-26	+26

So Colorado wins the field position battle, forces quite a few passing downs...and loses big. The two big causes: 1) Toledo's big play, and 2) Colorado's 57.5% leverage rate was worse than anybody's in this post except UTEP and Idaho State.
Really, Colorado? You're going to give up 0.82 PPP against Toledo? Think about that. For every five plays Toledo ran, they basically scored four points. Against Idaho State, Oklahoma actually only averaged 0.80 PPP. AGAINST IDAHO STATE.
Interesting rushing figures for Colorado. Darrell Scott had a pretty good game, but matching The Beef's observations made during the game: he was efficient, but where's the speed? A 0.29 PPP is below average, especially considering how good the success rate was, and especially considering the 4.18 line yards per carry. He was getting what the line gave him, maybe making one other person miss, and that was it. Colorado is desperate for a big-play aspect to the offense, and if they can't get it from their 5-star running back, where's it coming from? I would take Darrell Scott on my team by all means, but at this moment he's at best the fourth-best running back in the North behind Derrick Washington, Roy Helu Jr., and Jake Sharp. Without top-end speed, I don't see that changing.
Even with efficient running, Colorado couldn't stay out of Passing Downs to save their life. I'm obviously not a big fan of Cody Hawkins (who is?), but you can't put him in those types of situations and expect any success.
Toledo had a 0.99 PPP throwing the ball. Every time they threw the ball, they basically scored a point. Ugh.
There was a pretty fluky aspect to Toledo's offensive production, however: they were really good on Standard Downs and great on Passing Downs. A little too good. And yes, that's the closest I can come to a silver lining for Colorado: their defense is terrible, but it's not quite as apocalyptic as it looked on Friday. The Dan Hawkins Era, everybody!
A 1.409 3rd Down S&P for Toledo. Wow.

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35

	UH	OSU
Close %	94.1%
Field Position %	61.3%	50.0%
Leverage %	82.5%	68.1%

TOTAL
EqPts	33.7	29.9
Close Success Rate	58.8%	44.4%
Close PPP	0.42	0.39
Close S&P	1.009	0.835

RUSHING
EqPts	10.5	16.7
Close Success Rate	50.0%	37.5%
Close PPP	0.31	0.41
Close S&P	0.809	0.784
Line Yards/carry	3.26	3.09

PASSING
EqPts	23.2	13.3
Close Success Rate	65.2%	51.6%
Close PPP	0.51	0.37
Close S&P	1.162	0.886
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 7.7%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	60.6%	44.9%
PPP	0.37	0.42
S&P	0.973	0.865

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	47.8%
PPP	0.68	0.42
S&P	1.179	0.895

TURNOVERS
Number	2	4
Turnover Pts	8.6	17.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+9.3	-9.3

Q1 S&P	1.025	0.533
Q2 S&P	1.327	1.059
Q3 S&P	0.729	1.153
Q4 S&P	0.873	0.830

1st Down S&P	1.018	0.938
2nd Down S&P	1.105	0.701
3rd Down S&P	0.415	1.067

Projected Pt. Margin	+15.1	-15.1
Actual Pt. Margin	+10	-10

Houston's offensive efficiency is frightening. I realize the storyline coming from this game was "Well I guess OSU's defense wasn't as good as we thought, huh?" (and OSU's clearly going through a bit of Gabbert-itis here, being overly complimented after one week and overly crushed after two), but I want no part of Houston right now. You rarely see an 82.5% leverage rate, which basically means the Cougars almost completely stayed out of Passing Downs. They had a 60.6% success rate on Standard Downs, 50.0% success rate running, and 65.2% success rate passing. Their explosiveness wasn't amazing, but they were just ruthlessly efficient, and that can't all fall on the OSU defense. I'm sure OSU had trouble getting up for this game after preparing for Georgia all offseason, but still. Houston really is a good football team. Now watch them lose to UTEP and Tulane.
Meanwhile, the loss of Kendall Hunter (who I managed to not call Lindsey that time...go me!) definitely hurt. They have one of the conference's best backups in Keith Toston, but it's still a step down from Hunter to Toston, and the 'Pokes needed much better than a 0.784 S&P running the ball, especially with how devastating Houston was offensively. They needed to play keepaway and not put too much pressure on Zac Robinson to make plays--since clearly he's not playing at 100% effectiveness right now--and were unable to do so. He did work some magic--they did better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, but they faced way too many Passing Downs to be effective.

UL-Lafayette 17, Kansas State 15

	KSU	Louisiana
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	52.0%	30.8%
Leverage %	64.0%	75.4%

TOTAL
EqPts	22.3	16.9
Close Success Rate	37.3%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.30	0.26
Close S&P	0.671	0.660

RUSHING
EqPts	11.4	6.4
Close Success Rate	40.0%	44.8%
Close PPP	0.25	0.22
Close S&P	0.654	0.670
Line Yards/carry	3.05	2.66

PASSING
EqPts	10.9	10.5
Close Success Rate	33.3%	36.1%
Close PPP	0.36	0.29
Close S&P	0.698	0.652
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	41.7%	44.9%
PPP	0.25	0.25
S&P	0.670	0.700

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	29.6%	25.0%
PPP	0.38	0.29
S&P	0.674	0.536

TURNOVERS
Number	2	3
Turnover Pts	9.8	15.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+6.1	-6.1

Q1 S&P	0.382	0.591
Q2 S&P	0.567	0.988
Q3 S&P	0.705	0.353
Q4 S&P	0.977	0.403

1st Down S&P	0.544	0.717
2nd Down S&P	0.751	0.559
3rd Down S&P	0.690	0.690

Projected Pt. Margin	+11.5	-11.5
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

Proof that special teams matter: Kansas State not only should have won this game, but done so by double digits. And they lost. That's what happens when you miss two field goals and a PAT, and your opponent makes a 48-yard field goal for the win. That's a potential 10-point swing right there, in a game that was decided by two.
Just a brutal offensive display by both teams here. Daniel Thomas had a nice day rushing the ball (27 carries, 139 yards), but there was not enough explosiveness there to do his mediocre quarterbacks many favors. And even with Thomas rushing relatively well, KSU could not stay out of Passing Downs, which is murder for the aforementioned mediocre quarterbacks. (And I can't tell you how much it pains me to call a Coffman mediocre.)
Honestly, it was a nice comeback attempt for KSU in the fourth quarter considering how brutal the first three quarters were. They sucked it up, started playing well offensively, and actually took the lead with four minutes left, but alas, special teams screwed them in the end.

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3

	Iowa	ISU
Close %	59.9%
Field Position %	52.8%	24.6%
Leverage %	69.4%	66.2%

TOTAL
EqPts	30.4	11.5
Close Success Rate	43.2%	36.8%
Close PPP	0.36	0.17
Close S&P	0.796	0.538

RUSHING
EqPts	11.8	6.5
Close Success Rate	41.2%	55.0%
Close PPP	0.28	0.19
Close S&P	0.688	0.737
Line Yards/carry	3.51	4.30

PASSING
EqPts	18.6	4.9
Close Success Rate	44.4%	16.7%
Close PPP	0.42	0.15
Close S&P	0.864	0.317
SD/PD Sack Rate	4.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	48.8%
PPP	0.44	0.19
S&P	0.939	0.678

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	45.5%	22.7%
PPP	0.38	0.15
S&P	0.838	0.379

TURNOVERS
Number	2	6
Turnover Pts	9.2	25.7
Turnover Pts Margin	+16.5	-16.5

Q1 S&P	0.691	0.798
Q2 S&P	0.709	0.535
Q3 S&P	1.238	0.569
Q4 S&P	1.006	0.718

1st Down S&P	0.661	0.674
2nd Down S&P	1.008	0.534
3rd Down S&P	1.336	0.465

Projected Pt. Margin	+35.4	-35.4
Actual Pt. Margin	+32	-32

Hey, Austen Arnaud, your team was in not in the white jerseys. Iowa State absolutely deserved to lose, but the turnovers moved this game from "respectable loss" to "massacre."
Positive for ISU: Iowa really didn't run the ball very well. In fact, ISU actually ran a decent amount better.
Positive for ISU: ISU's offensive line cleared the way for pretty good line yardage totals and gave up no sacks. As I've mentioned a million times before, line stats are quite dependent on the skill position players (Maybe they gave up no sacks because Arnaud evaded the rush? Maybe their line yardage was good because the RBs made a little something out of nothing?) and are therefore only decent measures, not great ones, but that's still a pretty good sign for ISU.
Positive for ISU: their first-half defense was actually pretty strong, as was their first-down defense all game, suggesting very good game-planning.
Negative for ISU: everything else. Field position, turnovers, leverage, Standard Downs, turnovers, passing Downs, turnovers.

Texas 41, Wyoming 10

	UT	Wyoming
Close %	63.1%
Field Position %	48.2%	21.7%
Leverage %	74.1%	63.9%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.1	9.0
Close Success Rate	38.7%	38.6%
Close PPP	0.41	0.10
Close S&P	0.798	0.486

RUSHING
EqPts	13.5	3.7
Close Success Rate	33.3%	46.7%
Close PPP	0.37	0.15
Close S&P	0.702	0.618
Line Yards/carry	3.60	3.12

PASSING
EqPts	23.6	5.3
Close Success Rate	42.1%	34.5%
Close PPP	0.44	0.07
Close S&P	0.858	0.417
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.7% / 0.0%	6.9% / 11.5%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	52.4%	43.4%
PPP	0.41	0.11
S&P	0.937	0.545

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	22.7%	30.0%
PPP	0.50	0.10
S&P	0.730	0.403

TURNOVERS
Number	1	1
Turnover Pts	3.6	4.3
Turnover Pts Margin	+0.7	-0.7

Q1 S&P	0.433	0.566
Q2 S&P	0.759	0.256
Q3 S&P	1.268	0.591
Q4 S&P	1.049	0.482

1st Down S&P	1.040	0.520
2nd Down S&P	0.741	0.647
3rd Down S&P	0.769	0.221

Projected Pt. Margin	+28.8	-28.8
Actual Pt. Margin	+31	-31

Glad to see that my suspicions regarding disproportionate success on Passing Downs is thus far coming to fruition. Texas had a better S&P on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and that just didn't seem very sustainable. UT has still been better than most in Passing Downs--a 0.730 S&P is nothing terrible, nor was their 0.977 from last week--but it does appear that their offense will suffer at least a bit this season simply because last season was a little too perfect.
It's not quite Missouri's per-quarter splits, but UT's quarter-to-quarter stats were pretty damn telling. They were in a major funk at the start of the game, and the blocked punt touchdown gave Wyoming a lead heading toward halftime. But thanks in part to James Kirkendoll, the 'Horns got going a bit right before half and started the slaughter in the third quarter. It was hospitable of them to give the Wyoming home crowd something to cheer about, though.
Nothing to complain about defensively for Texas. Dave Christensen hasn't, to say the least, had a lot of success against Texas in the past, and nothing really ever got going for the Cowboys. And needless to say, a 0.221 3rd-Down S&P isn't, uhh, good.

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9

	ASU	NU
Close %	49.2%
Field Position %	40.4%	42.0%
Leverage %	73.7%	75.4%

TOTAL
EqPts	14.4	33.7
Close Success Rate	44.0%	56.8%
Close PPP	0.33	0.52
Close S&P	0.768	1.090

RUSHING
EqPts	9.1	8.3
Close Success Rate	52.9%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.37	0.40
Close S&P	0.901	0.961
Line Yards/carry	3.71	4.22

PASSING
EqPts	5.3	25.4
Close Success Rate	25.0%	57.1%
Close PPP	0.24	0.62
Close S&P	0.487	1.188
SD/PD Sack Rate	11.8% / 28.6%	3.3% / 7.7%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	54.8%	53.9%
PPP	0.30	0.49
S&P	0.845	1.032

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	20.0%	64.7%
PPP	0.13	0.47
S&P	0.325	1.121

TURNOVERS
Number	1	0
Turnover Pts	4.7	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-4.7	+4.7

Q1 S&P	0.420	1.192
Q2 S&P	1.212	0.983
Q3 S&P	0.664	1.257
Q4 S&P	0.659	0.821

1st Down S&P	0.767	1.097
2nd Down S&P	0.802	1.033
3rd Down S&P	0.248	0.977

Projected Pt. Margin	-24.4	+24.4
Actual Pt. Margin	-29	+29

It's so freaking hard to accurately evaluate Nebraska's defensive line. Just like last year, so far they're great at getting at the quarterback and very mediocre in stopping the run. Their sack rates on Saturday were untouchable, but 3.7 line yards/carry is way too much for them to be giving up to the Arkansas State's of the world.
Arkansas State actually had a better success rate on Standard Downs than NU did, but they had no real hope for any big plays, and eventually NU would leverage them into Passing Downs and release the hounds. Whereas a lot of stats were relatively even here, the 1.121-0.325 difference in Passing Downs S&P and the 0.977-0.248 difference in 3rd-Downs S&P made the difference in the game. That, and a big first quarter.
Congratulations to Chris Brooks for catching his third pass of the season on Saturday. That doubles his career total.
Gotta say, I haven't been impressed with NU's rushing totals thus far. A 0.730 S&P against FAU, followed by a solid-not-great 0.961 against ASU (which should have been a lot higher considering how well their offensive line was apparently blocking)? They seem to have underachieved so far. Luckily for them, their passing game has clicked nicely. It's really hard to complete passes to 14 different receivers, but that's what Zac Lee and Cody Green managed to do on Saturday. Really, that doesn't say anything in particular about NU's WR corps--it doesn't matter what their fourth-stringers do in blowouts if the first-stringers can't come up big against real teams--but the degree of difficulty really was pretty high.

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10

	Owls	ARRRR!
Close %	59.5%
Field Position %	34.2%	71.4%
Leverage %	57.9%	68.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	13.0	46.6
Close Success Rate	39.0%	48.0%
Close PPP	0.13	0.47
Close S&P	0.523	0.951

RUSHING
EqPts	4.3	3.9
Close Success Rate	40.0%	30.0%
Close PPP	0.13	0.31
Close S&P	0.526	0.609
Line Yards/carry	2.57	2.62

PASSING
EqPts	8.7	42.7
Close Success Rate	38.1%	52.5%
Close PPP	0.14	0.51
Close S&P	0.521	1.037
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.3% / 17.4%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	38.6%	50.9%
PPP	0.14	0.60
S&P	0.527	1.112

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	37.5%	50.0%
PPP	0.21	0.61
S&P	0.589	1.113

TURNOVERS
Number	2	0
Turnover Pts	9.2	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.2	+9.2

Q1 S&P	0.243	1.102
Q2 S&P	0.631	0.514
Q3 S&P	0.313	1.185
Q4 S&P	0.729	1.524

1st Down S&P	0.419	0.889
2nd Down S&P	0.803	1.168
3rd Down S&P	0.491	1.316

Projected Pt. Margin	-42.8	+42.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-45	+45

I railed on the Tech running game pretty hard last week, and they responded by...putting up an even worse Rushing S&P (0.609 after the season-opening 0.625). Line yardage improved from 1.70/carry to 2.62, but the output wasn't any better. It's nice that Taylor Potts got going--seven touchdowns is never not impressive--but in the end Tech did nothing to alleviate my concern about their offense as a whole. How are you supposed to give yourself a chance to win in Austin if you can't even pretend to run the ball?
Ironically, Leach's biggest response to the running game's struggles in week one was to simply run less. They threw 63 times and ran only 14, more than a 4-to-1 ratio of pass to run. This coming after a 40 carry, 48 pass effort against North Dakota. Maybe Cap'n Leach is just playing possum with the running game, ready to unleash a ground attack against Texas? I, uhh, doubt that.
Honestly, Tech's overall 0.951 S&P is obviously solid, but I think that defense carried the day for the second straight week. Rice couldn't run or pass successfully, couldn't stay out of passing downs, and really didn't get moving at all until the fourth quarter (and then, only marginally so). The biggest reason for Tech's big point margin was defensive domination leading to great field position. We'll obviously get a better read for the Raiders' D this week against Texas, but for now they've passed two tests with flying colors. Neither Rice nor North Dakota can light the world on fire offensively, but they held both teams to bad numbers, not just mediocre ones.

Kansas 34, UTEP 7

	KU	UTEP
Close %	51.9%
Field Position %	59.5%	6.3%
Leverage %	78.6%	56.3%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.0	10.2
Close Success Rate	42.5%	24.1%
Close PPP	0.43	0.05
Close S&P	0.855	0.292

RUSHING
EqPts	18.3	1.4
Close Success Rate	50.0%	14.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.09
Close S&P	0.929	0.229
Line Yards/carry	2.72	2.01

PASSING
EqPts	18.8	8.8
Close Success Rate	39.3%	27.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.04
Close S&P	0.824	0.313
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 35.3%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	45.5%	44.4%
PPP	0.35	0.35
S&P	0.808	0.795

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	14.3%
PPP	0.76	0.03
S&P	1.260	0.176

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	9.5	5.2
Turnover Pts Margin	-4.3	+4.3

Q1 S&P	0.589	0.323
Q2 S&P	1.015	0.259
Q3 S&P	0.961	0.668
Q4 S&P	0.939	1.166

1st Down S&P	0.809	0.579
2nd Down S&P	1.015	0.684
3rd Down S&P	0.925	0.211

Projected Pt. Margin	+22.5	-22.5
Actual Pt. Margin	+27	-27

Todd Reesing said he wasn't all that sharp in this game, and the sub-40% passing success rate certainly seems to verify that. But after a pretty terrible first quarter, the Kansas offense clicked along just fine, especially considering how dominant the Kansas defense was.
As with Tech, we won't jump to any major conclusions before they play an offense with a pulse, but this was certainly pretty impressive. A 0.176 Passing Downs S&P is about as low as you're going to see. There's a reason end Maxwell Onyegbule was named Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Week this week. If this was a "Happy learned how to putt" episode with the KU defense...

...then the Big 12 North could be in trouble. But we'll see. Duke won't be much of a test at all, but Southern Miss could be. We'll see how the 'Hawk D handles the Golden Eagles.
The offensive line didn't give KU running backs quite as much to work with this week, but they still did just fine. The total rushing yardage was severely skewed by a couple of long runs from backup quarterback Kale Pick (he had two carries for 87 yards), but the combined 32 carries and 166 yards (and 3 TDs) from Jake Sharp and Toben Opurum were still pretty strong. Nothing earth-shattering (5.3 yards per carry), but decent.
Has anybody else been noticing just how close the projected and actual point margins were this week? Aside from the Missouri-BGSU game, which (luckily for MU) didn't turn on the turnover margin as much as it could have, the crazy KSU-ULL game, and the blowout game below (big-time blowouts are rarely dead-on accurate in terms of projected margins), the other seven Big 12 games were pretty much nailed.

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0

	Ouch.	OU
Close %	30.1%
Field Position %	3.5%	68.4%
Leverage %	45.6%	75.0%

TOTAL
EqPts	1.6	43.9
Close Success Rate	0.0%	56.5%
Close PPP	-0.01	0.80
Close S&P	-0.007	1.364

RUSHING
EqPts	-0.2	23.2
Close Success Rate	0.0%	54.6%
Close PPP	0.00	0.23
Close S&P	-0.002	0.772
Line Yards/carry	-0.76	3.82

PASSING
EqPts	1.8	20.8
Close Success Rate	0.0%	58.3%
Close PPP	-0.01	1.32
Close S&P	-0.012	1.906
SD/PD Sack Rate	9.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 9.1%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	11.5%	59.7%
PPP	0.02	0.63
S&P	0.133	1.231

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	6.5%	26.3%
PPP	0.04	0.41
S&P	0.101	0.674

TURNOVERS
Number	2	2
Turnover Pts	12.0	9.4
Turnover Pts Margin	-2.6	+2.6

Q1 S&P	-0.007	1.165
Q2 S&P	0.105	1.327
Q3 S&P	0.316	0.677
Q4 S&P	-0.003	1.268

1st Down S&P	0.103	1.271
2nd Down S&P	0.134	1.077
3rd Down S&P	0.109	0.704

Projected Pt. Margin	-44.9	+44.9
Actual Pt. Margin	-64	+64

That's right, during the 30% of the game that was actually close, Idaho State ran a total of zero successful plays. Don't really know what else to say about this one.

Hawk Talk: UTEP the Morning After

Denverjhawk — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 13:39:41 -0000

A look at news and notes about the game...

Jayhawks win but the team is still looking to improve.
Defensive line finally puts it together in an impressive performance against UTEP.
Position changes in the secondary help out in UTEP win.
Miners say, "We just couldn't stop them."
KC Star story about the game.
Box Score
Game Report

Denver's Take...

While the offense still ended up with nearly 600 yards in total output the defense was the story in El Paso and that is a very good sign.

Chris Harris back to corner, Justin Thornton to the Nickel spot and Phillip Strozier at safety seemed to solve any concerns in the defensive secondary and the coverage led to a few sacks up front.

On the defensive line the front four to their credit was also making it happen themselves. Maxwell Onyegbule and Jeff Wheeler the two most talked about defensive ends in terms of potential throughout their careers finally seemed to realize a little bit of that at the Sun Bowl.

Sure UTEP shot themselves in the foot at times but regardless of who you are playing, when a team that can't break the century mark in total yards for the better part of three quarters you are doing something right.

Even the linebacking corps seemed solid with both Arist Wright and Drew Dudley providing excellent run support as well as playing pretty solid in coverage when called upon. If you need a stat to show what these guys did, UTEP only put together 4 yards rushing and numerous times I saw Drew Dudley meeting the Miner backs in the holes or in the backfield.

Lastly on the defensive side of the ball the game plan itself was much improved, far less vanilla and at times did look to disrupt the rhythm of the UTEP offensive game. All in all this was a big confidence builder on the defensive side of the ball and something we all needed to see.

From an offensive perspective Jake Sharp and Dezmon Briscoe showed up to play, both having tremendous outputs. The team as a whole as I said was near 600 yards but it still looked a mess at times. Todd Reesing was battling some bad snaps at times which might have led to some of his questionable play making but I'll cut the guy some slack as he's usually a warrior out there for us. It might have even felt good for him to know he didn't have to win every game for us.

Our two headed monster of Jake Sharp and Toben Opurum combined for 166 of the teams 255 rushing yards behind a modified offensive line that saw Thorson move back to center, Capra to LG and Trevor Marrongelli enter the game at right guard and count me among those impressed by this guy. Ultimately I really want Hatch back in the game and his snapping concerns addressed but it's good to know we have some solid depth on the interior. The competition in this area is stiff and it's going to get harder and harder for the coaching staff to keep a guy like Marrongelli off the field.

In terms of pass protection it did seem that Todd Reesing was scrambling less, most of his jitters in the pocket seemed more a result of either his own indecision or a lack of open receivers. Tanner Hawkinson again protected the backside but Jeff Spikes did stumble a bit at the right tackle and at this point might be the one weak link up front that has shown through 2 games.

Finally, the third phase of the game on special teams. Kick return game looked good as Daymond Patterson nearly broke two punt returns for touchdowns. Jacob Branstetter and Alonso Rojas continue to look pretty solid in terms of kicking when it comes to the kind that determines field position. The biggest concern that was exposed today was hands down the kicking accuracy of Branstetter. It's early and I'm hoping those were jitters but right now this is an area that could lose a game for us and that's scary.

Overall, Kansas dominated this one and the reality is we still are far from putting together our best game. Duke next week and then another decent test in Southern Miss before Iowa State and Big 12 conference play. There's a lot of football to go but if there is one thing the first two weeks have shown it's that this year is wide open in the Big 12. Put the pieces together and there's no telling what Kansas might accomplish.

Postgame Quotes and Notes after the jump...

- With the win KU: Started a season 2-0 for the seventh consecutive season... Won its fourth straight game dating back to last year... Stopped a three-game non-conference road losing streak... Improved to 18-2 in its last 20 non-conference games... Improved to 25-7 in its last 32 games overall...

- KU Head Coach Mark Mangino tied for second among KU coaches for career victories with his 47^th win (47-41 overall). He is tied with Glen Mason (47-54-1) and behind A.R. Kennedy (52-9-4).

- New starters from last week included RB Toben Opurum (first career start for the freshman as KU started two running backs) and WR Dezmon Briscoe on offense and DT Caleb Blakesley and S Phillip Strozier on defense. Chris Harris started at cornerback this week after starting at nickel back in the first game.

- KU recorded three sacks in the first quarter to extend its streak of recording at least three sacks in a game to four straight dating back to last year. The first-quarter sacks were by Max Onyegbule, Jeff Wheeler and Patrick Dorsey.

- Jake Sharp's 30-yard run from the KU six-yard line in the first quarter, was the second-longest rush of his career (47 vs. Kansas State last season).

- Sharp moved into 10^th place on the KU career rushing list as he entered the game with 1,933 yards and moved past Kerwin Bell (1,970).

- Sharp tied for fifth place on the KU career rushing touchdowns list after entering the game with 20 scores on the ground.

- Sharp moved into third place on the KU career receptions by a running back list after entering the game with 54 career grabs.

- Sharp scored a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown in the same game for the fourth time in his career.

- Sharp recorded the fifth 100-yard rushing game of his career, including his second in two games this season (had 123 in opener against Northern Colorado).

- Sharp has rushed for 15 touchdowns in the last 11 games.

- KU junior Justin Thornton recorded his eighth career interception in the second quarter after a deflection by Daymond Patterson.

- WR Dezmon Briscoe recorded his fifth straight 100-yard receiving game dating back to last year and in fact had 121 yards by halftime. It marked his eighth career 100-yard receiving game which tied Willie Vaughn for the most in KU history.

- Briscoe moved into third place on the KU career receiving yardage list as he entered the game with 1,903 yards and Richard Estell had 1,997.

- Briscoe has now caught at least two passes in 20 consecutive games.

- QB Todd Reesing moved into ninth place on the Big 12 career total offense list as he entered the game with 8,392 yards and Josh Freeman of Kansas State had 8,421 in his career.

- DE Maxwell Onyegbule had a career-high tackle total (had five vs. Texas last year). His first five tackles were for loss, including two sacks.

SB Nation - Maxwell Onyegbule

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Anatomy of Explosion: Four Plays, 76 Yards Against Kansas

Context

The Plays

Final Totals

Final Verdict

Hawk Talk: Kansas Senior Day

Husker Offense vs Jayhawks: Play It Conservative, Or Let ‘er Rip?

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Week 5 Recap

Way Too Little, Way Too Late (The Recap, Silly) -- Kansas 44 Duke 16

Hawk Talk: Kansas vs. Duke Tailgate Edition

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - 2009 Season - Week 3

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

Toledo 54, Colorado 28

Colorado

Toledo

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35

UH

OSU

UL-Lafayette 17, Kansas State 15

KSU

Louisiana

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3

Iowa

ISU

Texas 41, Wyoming 10

UT

Wyoming

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9

ASU

NU

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10

Owls

ARRRR!

Kansas 34, UTEP 7

KU

UTEP

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0

Ouch.

OU

Hawk Talk: UTEP the Morning After