SB Nation - Carl Wilson

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Kansas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

"I'd say the burrito was about this big." (Sorry, have to win back some goodwill after posting an unharmed Jayhawk logo yesterday.)

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

We now take a look at a team that, talent-wise, seems to be most well-established for making a North title run in 2009. At least, a team well-established at skill positions and in the secondary, with some pretty good-sized question marks in some units.

2008

Record: 8-5 (4-4 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 230.0 (20th in the country, 6th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 434-375 (+59)
Conference Scoring Margin: 251-293 (-42)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri (dammit), #63 Minnesota, #82 Colorado, #79 Kansas State, #86 Louisiana Tech, #93 Florida International, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA Sam Houston State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #15 Texas Tech, #21 Nebraska, #23 South Florida

Two atrocious quarters of offense from Missouri prevented me from being able to cleanly say that KU was 0-6 versus Top 60 teams and 7-0 versus everybody else, but alas...the 40-37 win over Mizzou at Arrowhead was KU's single crowning win in 2008. And yet...they managed to rank 20th in the country anyway. It all depends on how you frame it, I guess. You could also say that they were 1-5 versus the Top 25 and 7-0 versus everybody else, which makes #20 sound about right. Regardless of how you frame 2008, in 2009 KU returns all of their skill position talent and some key cogs in the secondary, but faces major holes on the O-line and at linebacker.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mark Mangino
Record at Kansas: 45-41 (conference: 22-34)
Career Pythagorean Record: -1.15 wins (-0.1/year)

Mark Mangino enters his eighth season in Lawrence having brought Kansas pretty steady, if a little two-steps-forward-one-back, success. He has yet to finish ahead of Gary Pinkel in the Big 12 North standings, yet he is consistently ranked ahead of GP when Big 12 coaches are ranked. At some point, actually, you'd think KU fans would become rather offended by this, as it pretty much suggests that KU was such a bad job that he's done an amazing job just to win some games while never finishing ahead of PInkel.

Mangino's moving average of wins shows just how methodically he has brought success to Lawrence:

2002-04: 4.0
2003-05: 5.7
2004-06: 5.7
2005-07: 8.3
2006-08: 8.7

And while we're at it, let's look at "Adjusted Win %." If you remember this from previous use, this is where we adjust a team's record for quality of opponent, equally weighting the record against teams based on win %.

Mark Mangino's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	7-1 (0.875)	6-10 (0.375)	6-12 (0.333)	0-5 (0.000)	19-28 (0.396)
Year 5-7	9-0 (1.000)	8-2 (0.800)	8-6 (0.571)	1-4 (0.200)	26-12 (0.643)
Total	16-1 (0.941)	14-12 (0.538)	14-18 (0.438)	1-9 (0.100)	45-40 (0.504)

Just as a means of comparison, here's Gary Pinkel's Adjusted Win %, broken out the same way:

Gary Pinkel's Adj. Win %
	vs .000-.250	vs .251-.500	vs .501-.750	vs .751-1.000	Adj. Win %
Year 1-4	6-0 (1.000)	12-8 (0.600)	3-10 (0.231)	1-7 (0.125)	22-25 (0.468)
Year 5-8	7-0 (1.000)	15-2 (0.882)	14-8 (0.636)	1-6 (0.143)	37-16 (0.665)
Total	13-0 (1.000)	27-10 (0.730)	17-18 (0.486)	2-13 (0.133)	59-41 (0.583)

So Gary Pinkel has performed slightly better across the board, but clearly both have done wonderful jobs turning iffy programs into winners. And as with Gary PInkel, Mangino will lose quite a few impact players after his eighth season, so he'll be starting Year #9 with a somewhat fresh slate just the same.

Looking at Pythagorean wins suggests that KU should have actually done a bit better overall, but the improvement has been easily measurable, and Mangino clearly is a pretty good coach. He's just not better than Pinkel.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 118.1 (#19)
Success Rate+: 115.8 (#16)
PPP+: 121.5 (#28)

Standard Downs S&P+: 110.0 (#33)
Passing Downs S&P+: 128.0 (#16)

Redzone S&P+: 125.1 (#12)

Q1 S&P+: 126.7 (#18)
Q2 S&P+: 108.6 (#44)
Q3 S&P+: 105.2 (#53)
Q4 S&P+: 126.6 (#10)

1st Down S&P+: 114.5 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 110.9 (#42)
3rd Down S&P+: 124.0 (#21)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 118.8 (#21)
Rushing SR+: 120.9 (#7)
Rushing PPP+: 116.4 (#42)

Standard Downs: 106.3 (#48)
Passing Downs: 130.3 (#24)

Redzone: 120.0 (#30)

Line Yards+: 115.0 (#19)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.2 (#25)
Passing SR+: 111.6 (#24)
Passing PPP+: 119.7 (#27)

Standard Downs: 113.0 (#24)
Passing Downs: 122.5 (#24)

Redzone: 131.3 (#13)

Sack Rate+: 103.3 (#61)

Kansas stepped backwards by four games from their 12-1 season in 2007 to 8-5 in 2008. A lot of that dropoff was schedule-based (as mentioned above, they didn't actually lose to a team ranked below 23rd in S&P+), but was it measurable in the numbers too? Not really.

2007 vs 2008

S&P+: 39th in 2007, 19th in 2008
Success Rate+: 40th in 2007, 16th in 2008
PPP+: 41st in 2007, 28th in 2008
Rushing S&P+: 35th in 2007, 21st in 2008
Passing S&P+: 41st in 2007, 25th in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: 30th in 2007, 33rd in 2008 (regression!)
Passing Downs S&P+: 54th in 2007, 16th in 2008 (a-ha!)

That they actually improved offensively in 2008 despite the regression in record says two things: 1) they could be pretty damn good in 2009, and 2) not to beat a dead horse, but...their schedule was so freaking weak in 2007!!

While the 2009 KU offense really could improve a bit more in 2009, it's a red flag to me that all of their improvement in 2008 came on Passing Downs. They were actually worse on Standard Downs but overachieved in passing situations (which, if you watched last year's MU-KU game, shouldn't surprise you). As I've mentioned before, disproportionate achievement on Passing Downs doesn't seem totally sustainable from year to year, and while a lot of that Passing Downs success was due to both Todd Reesing and the chemistry that Reesing has with Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe, they still may have been a little too successful, unsustainably so.

Lord knows that with their schedule, they better be at least as good in those situations because...well, they're going to face a lot of those situations.

Quarterback

Forever and ever.

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Todd Reesing (5'11, 200, Sr.)
Kale Pick (6'2, 200, RSFr.)
Chase Knighton (6'1, 195, So.)

If this team is relying on Passing Downs success to win their first North title, then they're going as far as Todd Reesing can take them. He was at his improvisational best against Oklahoma and Missouri, scrambling and seemingly inventing routes on the fly on his way to a combined 717 passing yards and 6 TDs (and, to be fair, 4 INTs). The Brett Favre comparison gets overused these days, and while Reesing doesn't quite see the Favre-esque extremes that someone like Matt Grothe does (he's only thrown more than 2 picks in a game twice), it's definitely in him, much moreso than with Chase Daniel, who was also given that "gunslinger" label (even though Chase was, in the end, about as robotic as a QB can be).

While he completed 66% of his passes at 7.8 yards per pass against OU and Mizzou, Reesing proved his all-or-nothing tendencies by completing just 54% at 5.4 yards per pass against Texas and Texas Tech (with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio) at home. In the end, most would love to have a "gamer" like Reesing leading your team, but his confidence in his abilities to make plays ends up being, at times, his biggest flaw. He posted a QB rating right at 149 each of the last two years, but he also took 56 sacks in that time, and his interceptions rose to 13 in 2008, not a bad figure per say, but not as in control as the seven he threw in 2007. That's why Kansas only finished 25th in Passing S&P+ and not higher--we remember the great plays, but we forget the sacks he's taken and the occasional atrocious throws he's made.

Which, in the end, is about as Favre-esque as you can get.

Running Backs

2008 Unit Ranking: #69 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Jake Sharp (5'10, 195, Sr.)
Reil Lewis (5'10, 201, So.)
Deshaun Sands? (5'9, 182, Fr.)
Toben Opurum? (6'2, 239, Fr.)

Jake Sharp is the least-scary good running back in the country. He was the main cog in a rushing attack that was 7th in the country in Success Rate+, he's scored 19 touchdowns, caught 44 passes, and put up a combined 1,143 yards from scrimmage the last two seasons, yet his lack of explosiveness got him ranked 198th among 269 eligible running backs in POE, the rushing performance measure I created for Football Outsiders. He's good for a couple of huge games a year, usually against bad defenses (he destroyed Kansas State for 181 yards and 4 TDs last year and went for 118 and 3 TDs against an OU defense adapting to the loss of Ryan Reynolds), but in all he's a steady but so-so runner. You could do worse than starting Jake Sharp, but you could certainly do better.

For better or worse, Sharp is the horse of this unit. Their two other POE-eligible running backs, Angus Quigley (165th) and Jocques Crawford (153rd), are either no longer playing running back (Quigley moved to LB) or no longer on the team (Crawford left Lawrence after, uhh, some drama). What remain are Reil Lewis and a couple of brank, spanking new options in Deshaun Sands and big Toben Opurum. Expect either or both of the freshmen to play this year, though you never want to rely too much on freshmen. Barring injury, Sharp will still carry a majority of the load.

One more thing: if Sands, ~~brother~~ son of the one and only Tony Sands, sees the field at Arrowhead this November, somebody should take precautionary measures and break his freaking kneecaps. Nothing personal, ahem.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Unit Ranking: #23 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dezmon Briscoe (6'3, 200, Jr.)
Kerry Meier (6'3, 220, Sr.)
Johnathan Wilson (6'3, 189, Jr.)
Raimond Pendleton (5'11, 192, Sr.)
Tertavian Ingram (6'0, 200, Jr.)
Isiah Barfield (6'0, 184, So.)
Reece Petty (6'2, 195, Jr.)
Willie O'Quinn (6'0, 190, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Tim Biere (6'4, 246, So.)
Bradley Dedeaux (6'3, 252, Jr.)
Nick Plato (6'6, 242, RSFr.)

I'll be the first to admit that I need to figure out a better method of ranking WR/TE units. Both Kansas and Missouri ranked in the 20s in this category, but...well, until I figure out a better way, this is what we've got. KU definitely has the scariest 1-2 punch in the North. Briscoe and Meier combined for 189 catches, 2,452 yards, and 23 TDs in 2008, simply insane numbers. Johnathan Wilson (43 for 573, 3 TDs) is a solid third option, but...well, talking about anybody but Briscoe and Meier as the headliners is like saying Wilt Chamberlain and I have combined to sleep with over 10,000 women...it's very impressive, but it completely takes away from the real accomplishment.

KU executed a risky but perfect gameplan against Mizzou in 2008. They continued to dink and dunk, stretching the field horizontally with Meier and Briscoe, relying on the KU defense to fend Mizzou's offense off for as long as possible. If Mizzou sustains some drives in the first half, then the Mizzou defense doesn't completely wear out in the fourth quarter, but alas, that's what happened. When all was said and done, Briscoe and Meier combined for 23 catches, 221 yards, and 3 TDs (two of which came in Q4), and an exhausted Mizzou secondary saw its communication fall apart down the stretch. Again, dink-and-dunk is always risky because it takes a lot of plays to sustain a drive and opens up more opportunities for mistakes. But if you can pull it off, it works brilliantly, and it worked against Mizzou in 2008.

I am working on the assumption that 2009 will be Briscoe's last season in Lawrence--he's got good NFL size and speed, plus grades appear to be an issue, which sometimes pulls people toward the pros a little sooner than otherwise--meaning the KU receiving corps will take on a completely different look in 2010. But we'll talk about that in 2010. For now, this is the best WR unit in the North, and any production they get from the tight end position (which, last year, was almost nonexistant--Tim Biere and Bradley Dedeaux combined for all of 8 catches and 74 yards) is just icing.

Offensive Line

2008 Unit Ranking: #32 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Jeremiah Hatch (6'3, 311, So.)
T Jeff Spikes (6'6, 314, So.)
G Sal Capra (6'3, 292, Jr.)
G Carl Wilson (6'4, 292, Jr.)
T Tanner Hawkinson (6'6, 260, RSFr.)
G John Williams (6'4, 338, RSFr.)
G Trevor Marrongelli (6'4, 285, RSFr.)
C Brad Thorson (6'3, 290, Jr.)
T Ian Wolfe (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Darius Parish (6'4, 341, So.)

Consider the offensive line Major Kansas Question Mark #1 (the second will come when we talk about the defense). They have the fewest returning career starts in the conference (lower than even OU), and of the ten names I was able to dig up for a depth chart (question for KU fans: is senior Jose Rodriguez still with the team? He's not on the 2009 KU roster, but I saw him mentioned at RCT), there are no seniors and only four juniors. This bodes well for 2010, when a solid, experienced line is trying to set the table for an almost 100% new set of skill position players, but for now it's a giant red flag for this offense. Todd Reesing is one of the best when it comes to improvising and creating on the fly, but that doesn't mean you want him doing it every play. For KU to win the North (which means either taking a game against Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas Tech, or running the table in the North), converted tight end Tanner Hawkinson will likely need to quickly become the real deal at left tackle, and Jeff Spikes (or whoever wins the RT job) will need to become pretty stable, pretty quickly. The ends in this conference are more athletic and experienced than in recent years, and...again, this team needs Reesing healthy and upright.

Summary

Todd Reesing's interesting offseason workout plan was introduced to the country recently...and well, I just needed a place to reference that, so here you go. Now to the real summary:

It cannot be emphasized enough just how much this team relies on Reesing for success. They have an efficient but average running game and the greenest offensive line in the conference. Reesing has two explosive and heady options in Briscoe and Meier, but the Jayhawks will need things to click better than they did last year to navigate through the most brutal schedule in the North and win their first North title (no, 2007 does not count). The more Reesing has to rely on his great improvisational skills, the more likely KU is to fail, not because Reesing's talent will fall off or anything, but because you're simply setting yourself up for failure with the more Passing Downs you encounter.

The running game must click at least as well as it did last year, when a seemingly raw O-line produced very respectable line yardage totals, and KU must avoid relying on Passing Downs success because they will likely fall off in that regard in 2009. Missouri did from 2007 to 2008, and I think with the more data I get, the more common I will find these occurrences to be. I still think that, talent- and experience-wise, KU is the most proven overall team in the North, but they will need to be better than they were in 2008, and with that offensive line and their '08 over-reliance on Passing Downs success, it's far from a given that they actually will be better.

Kansas Postional Previews: Offensive Line

Denverjhawk — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:00:12 -0000

Jeremiah Hatch will be expected to lead a fairly inexperience group of Kansas offensive lineman in 2009.

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Once again an area of change in the 2009 season will be the offensive line. With that in mind change isn't always a bad thing. 2008 saw its struggles for the Jayhawks in the trenches. Two redshirt freshman tackles and an interior that didn't quite anchor things the way they were expected to.

With a new year only one position will remain the same although two of the names in the starting lineup will. Jeff Spikes a redshirt sophomore out of Ohio will retain his position as the right tackle after making the move from the left side to the right during the middle of last season. During the preseason of 2008 Spikes was praised for his footwork, size and potential to be the next great Kansas left tackle. Obviously that didn't pan out for the time being as he was moved to the right where he was serviceable but will be looked upon to step it up in 2009. At 6'6" 314 Spikes did earn himself 3^rd team freshman all America honors so others see it in him; it's just a matter of consistency at this point.

Jeremiah Hatch will be the other familiar name on the offensive line starting the season, and after playing fairly well out of position at left tackle he'll move back to the interior and his natural position of center. At 6'3" 311, center is where Hatch played in high school earning all state honors at Carter high school in Dallas Texas. While he was a 2^nd team selection on the freshman all America team at tackle, his leadership and talent will be a welcome boost to the interior and hopefully an improved running game.

Moving beyond these two familiar faces, we'll be seeing a whole lot of new ones and while some positions are up in the air others seem to be a little more decided.

Complete Positional Breakdown After the Jump...

Continuing the preview, we'll look at the contenders for the starting spots in the trenches. Starting from the left side where a converted tight end in Tanner Hawkinson will look to make an astronomical leap from freshman tight end redshirting and earning his stripes on the scout team, to starting at one of the most important positions on the field left tackle. One thing is clear about Hawkinson and that is that he is a pretty good football player. As a junior he was an all state tight end and as a senior he was an all state defensive lineman. He tried out both as a redshirt freshman at Kansas. In the spring the decision was made to move him to tackle and he's done a job in adding weight and getting up to 6'6" 285, so size is not as big a concern as it once was. I have also been told by a peer of his that the footwork and athleticism everyone talks about with him are very legit strengths, but he still will have to polish up on the fundamentals of the position. This is definitely a big area of concern for some and hopefully this year we aren't making a switch four games in as we did last year.

Moving to left guard currently listed on the depth chart is Carl Wilson. Wilson is a 6'4" 292 pound junior out of California. Wilson was a fairly highly regarded recruit and has the size to go along with three years in the system as an advantage.

The guy that will be pushing him in a big way is "Big" John Williams. If you haven't seen pics of this guy yet, look for them because he's a large man. Williams is listed at 6'4" 309 but he looks even bigger. He was an all state selection in Oklahoma as a senior and redshirted last fall. For a guy his size Williams is reported to have good agility and excellent flexibility and strength. In spring ball he as apparently fairly dominant on the offensive line and I think there is a strong possibility we see him take the starting role at some point.

Jumping to the right side the listed starter at the moment is another junior in Rockhurst high school product Sal Capra. Capra is an interesting story in my opinion because he arrived in Lawrence as an unheralded linebacker recruit but has tacked on 60 pounds and made himself into a contributor on the offensive line. Last season Capra filled in as the first man off the bench at both guard spots and saw action in every game proving a very reliable presence at times. I think there is a strong possibility Capra pulls this spot out due to his experience and the fact he has earned the trust of the staff, but he will be pushed for time.

The other contender on the right side is another redshirt freshman Trevor Marrongelli. If any of you remember the movie "The Program" back in the 90's, he reminds me of "moose" without the squirrely hair. Standing 6'4" 285 pounds Marrongelli was said to have a nasty streak by one of the assistant coaches when he was recruited. Now after a season in the system, word is he is pushing for that starting spot at right guard.

One other player that may be in the mix on the interior is Brad Thorson. Thorson is a 6'3" junior who transferred in from Wisconsin last season. He was the backup center at Wisconsin as a redshirt freshman and is a very solid option as a potential backup or even starter on the Jayhawk offensive line this year.

Another interesting story on the offensive line this season is the move of Darius Parish from defensive tackle to offensive line. Early on he has been working at tackle but it wouldn't surprise me to see him at guard as well. Parish is a 6'4" 314 pounder who again like Williams looks much bigger. He definitely has trimmed down a bit this season and looks much stronger but I'd still think he might end up playing larger than 314. This is an intriguing move in a lot of ways and as we learned from media day coach Mangino has felt Parish is an offensive lineman all the way.

Other upperclassman competing on the line beginning with the tackles are Jose Rodriguez a 6'6" 293 pound senior who has seen limited action in his career. Ian Wolfe a 6'5" 295 pound junior who I think everyone keeps wondering what's going on here. Interestingly a transfer in Mike Martinovich is running second team at left tackle behind Hawkinson and the 6'4" 270 pound transfer from Air Force last season must be impressing somebody to be able to suplant 2 guys who have a much more prototypical tackle size.

Others competing at guard include Alex Smith a Kansas product who as a junior has played primarily a scout team role throughout his career. Also returning is Joe Semple a walk on out of Illinois who had several division one offers but chose a preferred walk on slot with the hawks.

Newcomers to this unit are Gavin Howard, Riley Spencer and Tom Mabry.

Spencer is a local product out of Hesston Kansas and has done a tremendous job of physically preparing himself working his way up from a fairly low playing weight his senior season in high school to a listing at 6'7" 290, although I've heard he has surpassed 300. Spencer has tremendous size, is a smart player and has great work ethic. I'd imagine we'll see a redshirt but in the future he could anchor one side or the other as a very viable option.

Gavin Howard is another big kid standing 6'6" 295 pounds and while not much has been said at this point in regards to his progress he is an agile guy with size and would also project as a tackle somewhere down the line with the Jayhawks. I think it's a strong possibility that before it's all said and done both Howard and Riley could be bookends for a pretty good o-line group someday with the Jayhawks.

Last but not least is Tom Mabry who is a bit of a mystery at this point. The 6'5" 280 pounder comes to Kansas from Illinois where he was recruited personally by Ed Warriner. This is someone he was reportedly very high on and recruiting very early on so you'd have to believe there is something to him. Much like the others I don't expect him to be an immediate impact as it is very difficult for any offensive lineman to do, but I do think he'll be a valuable player on the roster 2-3 years from now.

That wraps up the hogs in the trenches. Lot's of new names, new positions and not a lot of answers yet. However, as I've contended from the beginning, while we are replacing a lot it is being replaced with guys who have a higher ceiling. I know the saying goes potential means you haven't proven anything and I agree completly, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the future of this unit. I just hope it comes together for the present.

Poll

Who would you like to see starting at the Guard positions in 2009

Capra, Wilson

11 votes

Capra, Williams

14 votes

Marrongelli, Wilson

1 votes

Marrongelli, Williams

18 votes

Other, please explain in the comments

4 votes

48 votes | Poll has closed