SB Nation - Dexton Fields

re-Balancing the O

Denverjhawk — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:35:17 -0000

Balance in the offense. Pretty common belief in football that balance in the offense leads to success in the offense. If all you do is run it becomes easier for teams to focus all their efforts at stopping it. At that point you can still be successful but you better have a mammoth offensive line and every player has to put a hat on a hat and play football.

What proves slightly more difficult is if all you are capable of is passing. Again at that point you better field an offensive line that creates a pocket, wins their matchups and more often than not allows very very few sacks. Still you likely need balance within your passing game itself. Does it do you any good to go five wide if only two are legitimate targets?

Right now the Kansas Jayhawks have no balance. There are other reasons for the current struggles and perhaps 2007 inflated expectations a bit to high but that season certainly points to some glaring reasons why 2009 and perhaps even to a lesser extent 2008 weren't as successful.

2007

First off let's take a look at the 2007 statistical breakdown for the Jayhawks offensively.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	275	445	3486	61.8	7.83	33	7	148.9

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Brandon McAnderson	190	1125	5.9	40	16
Jake Sharp	111	556	5.0	25	5
Todd Reesing	92	197	2.1	53	3

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Marcus Henry	54	1014	18.8	82 (TD)	10
Dexton Fields	63	834	13.2	37	6
Dezmon Briscoe	42	496	11.8	34	7
Derek Fine	46	394	8.6	32	4
Kerry Meier	26	274	10.5	39	2
Brandon McAnderson	21	213	10.1	39	0
Aqib Talib	8	182	22.8	58 (TD)	4
Jake Sharp	19	134	7.1	31	1

Clearly we all know this was a good year offensively against a weaker schedule, but still it's not hard to see we were a much more balanced team.

Todd's numbers are what they are, amazingly he still looks to be on pace in 2009 for a better statistical year but that doesn't take into account the fumbles, the sacks and other wasted offensive plays that seem to be plaguing him this year.

A quick look at the running game vs. passing though and you'll see Kansas rushed for over 2400 yards in 2007 while passing for around 3700 as a team. 40% run, 60% pass, probably about par for the spread. Certainly some balance in that area and when you look inside each of those areas separately you see an equal amount of balance.

McAnderson 190 carries, Sharp 111 carries. Hell even Todd ran it 92 times although I wouldn't say that's the ideal scenario this year. Still why can't we see this type of split with Sharp and Opurum? Take away the Sharps injury and who knows if Toben sees the field much past UTEP.

In the passing game the spread amongst receivers is great. Marcus Henry with 54 catches, Dexton Fields with 63, Derek Fine with 46, Dezmon Briscoe at 42, Kerry Meier with 26 and running backs combined with a total of 40 balls thrown their way. No single player was the recipent of more than 22% of the teams receptions. Who does a defense focus on? It's pretty clear this year but in 2007 the ball was being distributed around no one man more emphasized than the next and it made the offense very difficult to defend. Isn't the point of the spread to get more athletes on the field than the other team and get them into space? So what good does it do if only two of those athletes see the ball? Just a question.

2008

Now let's jump to 2008 a year which was truthfully very close to being a disaster. A great game against Missouri and a monster comeback in Ames essentially made things feel a whole lot better than maybe they really were. Nonetheless it was a success but things were clearly trending away from the balance we saw in 2007.

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	329	495	3888	66.5	7.86	32	13	148.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Jake Sharp	186	860	4.6	47 (TD)	12
Angus Quigley	59	309	5.2	20	3
Jocques Crawford	62	232	3.7	20	4
Todd Reesing	126	224	1.8	18	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	92	1407	15.3	69 (TD)	15
Kerry Meier	97	1045	10.8	68 (TD)	8
Johnathan Wilson	43	573	13.3	56	3
Jake Sharp	25	283	11.3	67 (TD)	1
Dexton Fields	20	214	10.7	50	3
Daymond Patterson	14	154	11.0	44	2
Angus Quigley	17	82	4.8	14 (TD)	1

2008 final numbers were 1650 on the ground and just shy of 4000 through the air. Moves the Jayhawks to 30% of their yards on the ground and 70% through the air. If you remember the ground game really came on much stronger in conference play so I'll accept this as a failure in the non-conference combined with the fact that confidence was through the roof in the passing game. It worked too for the most part, even in the losses the offense was working.

Sharp was effective with over 180 carries on the year. The running game certainly wasn't to 2007 standards but we lost an All American left tackle and a senior right tackle so a dip was somewhat expected.

The passing game is where you begin to see a bit of a troubling trend. For all the talk of Reesing, Dez and Meier being great it shouldn't be hard for a defensive coordinator going forward to see where they need to pool their resources. There are two guys on this list that catch better than 60% of the balls thrown. Granted they were somewhat new on the scene and both are very good, but is everyone else a decoy? The spread the ball around distribution from 2007 is long gone.

All in all 2008 was productive and the offense never stalled out like it has this season but when you look at the numbers it would seem the Jayhawk playcalling was at the very least trending in the direction that has led to the complete unbalance we are seeing today.

2009

Passing Statistics
NAME	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YDS/A	TD	INT	RAT
Todd Reesing	232	361	2626	64.3	7.27	17	8	136.5

Rushing Statistics
NAME	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG	TD
Toben Opurum	116	498	4.3	26 (TD)	9
Jake Sharp	83	368	4.4	30	3
Kale Pick	13	162	12.5	55	0
Todd Reesing	78	92	1.2	22	4

Receiving Statistics
NAME	REC	YDS	YPR	LONG	TD
Dezmon Briscoe	61	917	15.0	56	6
Kerry Meier	73	758	10.4	71	6
Johnathan Wilson	30	361	12.0	33	0
Bradley McDougald	28	263	9.4	42	0
Jake Sharp	23	178	7.7	56	3
Toben Opurum	12	110	9.2	30	1
Tim Biere	8	108	13.5	19	0

Here's a quick look at 2009 YTD. Currently Kansas sits at about 30% of their yards coming from the ground game and again about 70% in the air. On paper it wouldn't seem we've regressed in this area much from 2008 but only 313 of the rushing yards in 2009 have come after conference play began. Yep, 313 yards rushing in 5 games. How many would you guess in the first five conference games for 2008? 843 is the magic number, a 163 yard/game average. Our offense turned it on in 2008 when conference play began. So in this current skid it'd be safe to bet that maybe 10% of our offensive yardage is coming on the ground. Not tough to defend when you tell your front four to tee off and drop the other seven into coverage.

It becomes even less difficult when you realize that once again, two players on the Jayhawks are accounting for nearly 60% of their offensive receptions. Now I'll concede the fact that Johnathan Wilson has dropped a good number of passes this year but do we not have anyone else on the team that can catch a ball? Let's give them a shot. Against Kansas State Tetravian Ingram finally came in for Johnathan Wilson who has struggled of late. Missed the first pass thrown his way and yanked back to the sideline. The reactions to the two's behaviors seems a bit unproportional.

Also why doesn't Tim Biere see the ball more? He seems every bit as capable of making a catch as Derek Fine. Not too mention he runs like a truck down the field. Has he been tackled yet? or just eventually bounced out of bounds. The running backs are seeing about the same number of balls as they have in the past but the effectiveness is down. Too many middle screens and shovel passes perhaps? Why not check down to these guys on our normal every down passing plays when no one appears open?

To wrap up I just want to make it clear that what this group has done for the University of Kansas football program is immeasurable. It's made Saturday's matter again in the fall. Nobody sets out to lose and certainly these guys put in a tremendous amount of hours and effort all year. They deserve and will get my continued support. Somewhere though whether it rest with the man at the top, the offensive coordinator and certainly a little bit with the signal caller, this offense isn't remotely close to where it's been. In 2007 this team did it with players nobody wanted out of high school. Literally no one wanted Marcus Henry, Brandon McAnderson was far from the top of anyones list at running back and as I recall the Head Coach on the other sideline this past weekend didn't recruit Jake Sharp.

Kansas should be better, it's time to adapt what we're doing and fix the problems. Changes were swift on the defensive side of the ball, but are coming far too slowly for the offense. I'm headed back to Lawrence this week to see Senior day for this crew and I'm thrilled to say I'll send off Stuckey, Meier, Reesing, Sharp and likely Briscoe. I just hope that the teams struggles this year can be corrected enough to get them a bowl game and then going forward our program finds a way to adapt what we've done well in the past to continue moving forward as a program.

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

Press Conference Quotes 12.10.08

Denverjhawk — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:10:01 -0000

Obviously it's an important recruiting time for the coaches and a little bit of a slower time for the players. Developmental practices are in full swing. Players are wrapping up finals and getting ready to begin Bowl practices.

No Coach Mangino this week but some good press conference action from a lot of the players. Joe Mortenson and Adrian Mayes talk about their upcoming final game as Jayhawks. Russel Brorson touches on some of the young guys that have impressed in workouts. Jeff Spikes talks recruiting and Dezmon Briscoe and Justin Thorton talk a little Missouri game and Bowl game.

Jump into the post for the entire press conference transcript...

Kansas Football Press Conference Quotes

Dec. 10, 2008

Senior Offensive Lineman Adrian Mayes:

His thoughts on playing Minnesota:

“I am glad that we are going to play a good opponent like Minnesota. I have watched a little bit of film and their defense looks pretty good. They have a really good defensive end. From what I saw they have a really good front four and it should be a good challenge for our offensive line.”

On the importance of winning the Insight Bowl:

“To have 20 wins in two seasons is a big thing. To have the chance to win back-to-back bowls is something that we want to go out with. It is really important for us to get this win. I know it will be a lot of fun.”

Senior Linebacker Joe Mortensen

On his feelings after the Missouri victory:

“I was really emotional because it was my last time to play Mizzou and it was one of my last college games. It was one of our rivals, so it felt so good that we beat them in my senior year. We had lost to them the last couple years, but it is a good way to go out.”

On the schedule before the bowl game:

“Coach Mangino has talked to us about that. This week has been kind of an off-week. He has given us time to study for our finals, but we’re going to start hitting it hard this weekend and into next week. It’s going to be intense and we’re going to use all 15 practices.”

On Minnesota:

“The last two days we have been watching film. We just got our film in on Sunday, so we’ve been watching them the last two days. They run a lot of empty (sets) and we have seen a bunch of spread this year, so we should be ready. They have a really good wideout and a good quarterback. Those are the guys that we are going to have to contain. They love to pass the ball. They are one of the only spread teams in the Big Ten. They started off 7-1, and were really hot, but they’ve lost the last few games. They are still a really good team though.”

On it being his last game as a Jayhawk:

“It’s going to be emotional. It’s going to be fun. I am from southern California, so I have like 20-to-30 people coming out to the game. It is in Arizona, so it is going to be nice weather. It is going to be a great atmosphere. And because it is my last college football game, I’m looking forward to it.”

On how Minnesota scares him:

“They have a really good wide out and they also have a really good quarterback. Those are the guys that we are really going to have to contain. They love to pass the ball as they are one of the only spread teams in the Big 10. They started out really hot at 7-1 and then cooled off a bit at the end of the year, but they are still a really good team. I think the Big 12 has some of the best offenses and defenses in the country so we have definitely seen a lot of good spreads so far this year. I am definitely not talking down the Big 10 because I know they are a very good conference as well, but we have played some of the best offenses in the nation.”

On getting pressure on the quarterback against Minnesota:

“That is definitely one thing we are going to look for. When you are running against spread offenses it is always nice to get a hit on the quarterback.”

On the chance of the senior class finishing their last two years with 20 wins:

“It is huge. Our senior class wants to leave a legacy. We want to win bowl games. This is the first time in school history that we have gone to back-to-back bowl games and we want to win back-to-back bowl games.”

Junior Cornerback Justin Thornton

On Minnesota Wide Receiver Eric Decker:

“He’s a great wide receiver. He’s put up some great numbers this year and I have had a chance to watch him on film a couple of times, so he’s definitely a guy that we’ll keep an eye on. He does a lot of things well. He runs great routes and catches great balls.”

On Minnesota Quarterback Adam Weber:

“Their quarterback is a good player. He kind of reminds me of Todd (Reesing). He goes out there and makes plays for them. He throws decent balls too. It’ll be a great test for us, especially against a Big Ten school.”

On defeating Missouri:

“It is always great to beat the Tigers. It’s a great rivalry. We took the victory in stride and it has helped us go into our bowl preparation. It is always great to beat the Tigers and we’re going to use it as a momentum boost going into our next game. (Our attitude) has been great. Guys are working hard. We’ve had a couple weeks off and now we’re getting ready for our bowl preparations. Even though we’re not practicing, we’re not taking time off. We’re still in the weight room trying to stay in shape. We’ll be ready to go for our bowl game.”

Sophomore Wide Receiver Dezmon Briscoe

On the win against Missouri:

“It is always big to get a win against Missouri in the Border Showdown. I believe that we came into that game with more intensity and we came out with the win.”

On entering the bowl game with a win:

“Going into a bowl game with some confidence is always a good thing. We are going to come into the game with a lot of confidence. We are going to approach the game with intensity and hopefully come out with a win.”

On the team’s attitude right now:

“This time of year we are mostly focusing on our school work, but we still have the mindset that we still have a game to win. Even though our mindset is on school work right now, we have a chance to get our eighth win and are focusing on football as well.”

On ending the season on a high note:

“The coaches have really had a lot of confidence in me late in the season and I have responded by making plays when the ball came to me. I am just planning on doing the same in the bowl game.”

Redshirt Freshman Offensive Tackle Jeff Spikes

On his expectations of playing at Kansas:

“There wasn’t too much I was expecting because I didn’t want to expect too much and be disappointed. It’s been a challenge coming in and working hard and having to go through tiring workouts. There are days that it can be harder than you expect. I haven’t been disappointed in anything I have experienced here.”

On his recruitment to Kansas:

“When coach (Ed) Warinner first recruited me, he was recruiting me to go to Illinois. Then I didn’t hear from him for a while. When I was on a visit in Louisiana he gave me a call and said, “I haven’t been able to get in touch with you, but I am taking a coaching job at Kansas and I want to recruit you here.”

On his experience prior to playing at Kansas:

“I came in with no experience and no understanding of the game at all. I felt that if I put it to the test and see what I could do and make the best of opportunities, then I could be good at what I do.”

Senior Wide Receiver Dexton Fields

On how he handles all of his responsibilities, including his new role as a father:

“Fortunately this semester I only had two classes that I needed to take. I only had one class I actually had to come on campus for. Most of the time I’m watching my son when his mom is at school. It’s kind of hard to leave him when I go away for games because I am so used to being with him. It’s all worth it though. I have to take care of business so I can provide for him.”

On when his son was born:

“He was born the week before I came back, on the Thursday before the Iowa State game. That’s the game I came back from injury. Kelsey has been pretty good about taking care of him when I’m not around. I was anticipating his birth because they told me she could go into labor any day, but the one day I decided not to bring my phone out to the practice field she ended up having him. I was there though.”

On possibly missing practice:

“I talked to coach about it. He was understanding about it. He understood the responsibility I had. It’s a once in a life time opportunity.”

Senior Defensive End Russell Brorsen

On the importance of developmental practices:

“They (developmental practices) are really good for the young guys because they spend most of the season on the scout team running an opponent’s offense or defense. They can pick up some bad habits doing that. Now is the time to get them out of those bad habits before they get to spring ball.”

On which young guys have impressed him in recent practices:

“The two (defensive) ends, D.J. Marshall and Tanner Hawkinson have really come on strong in developmental practices. They’ve been playing really well. Duane Zlatnik has also come along really well.”

On the break between the end of the season and the bowl game:

“It gives us a couple of weeks to try to get our bodies back (healthy) from the season. I think it will really help for the bowl game. We are just trying to get healed up as much as we can before we get going again for the last game.”

Junior defensive tackle Caleb Blakesley

On playing through his injuries:

“It’s not quite as scary when you’ve been through it before. It’s more disappointing than anything. But everything has worked out now and the season is coming to a close with a big bowl game. I’ll be ready for it.”

On playing during such an historic time for KU football:

“It’s a great feeling. The thing I love the most about being able to play here is that my family can come watch me. It’s great being a part of all the records and history that has happened since I’ve been here. We’ve had some rough times and then last year was amazing. This year we’ve just battled through with guys getting banged up, but we’re fighting. We’re going to go out and finish the season on top.”

Press Conference Quotes...11.11.08

Denverjhawk — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 23:51:59 -0000

Highlights from today's press conference w/Coach Mangino and KU Players...

Head Coach Mark Mangino

Opening remarks:

“Looking back on last week, Nebraska made more plays than we did to win the game. We had opportunities and didn’t always capitalize. We didn’t make stops when we needed to make stops. We have got to improve our tackling. We have got to play a lot more sound in our inside run game. There were a few bright spots. Dezmon Briscoe had a big day and looked really good. Todd Reesing had a good day, although his numbers didn’t show that he did. James Holt is really playing good defense for us right now.”

“This week we have Texas, who is a very good, ranked, top-five program. They have a lot of weapons on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Defensively they are very stout. They are only allowing 86 yards per game rushing. They have a very athletic defensive line with very quick, athletic guys who can move around. Their linebackers seem to be the heart of their defense. They are an outstanding group of linebackers. Their secondary is very athletic as always.”

“On the offensive side of the ball they run the ball with a number of different tailbacks. Their big playmaker is obviously Colt McCoy at quarterback, both running and throwing the football. He has a bunch of excellent receivers to throw to, led by Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby. Shipley is also a very dangerous player on special teams.”

“It is a very good Texas team that is coming here and we are planning on having a good week of preparation and getting ready to play them. It is an opportunity for us to play a top-five team here at home and we want to play well.”

More Coach and Player Quotes after the Jump...

Coach Mangino Cont.

On this year’s senior class:

“This is a senior class that has several fifth-year players and some kids that have played a lot of snaps. They have been through some really good times and have had to fight through some times. We see them as a group of kids who have been here and weathered some storms and have had some really big highs. We expect that they will continue to compete and fight here until the end.”

On Dezmon Briscoe:

“Dez is playing good football. Each and every week he seems to get better. He does a good job of understanding the defense. He knows where the holes are, he understands the coverages and we are really getting the ball to him quite a bit. He is finding holes in zones and leveraging man coverage pretty well. This is only his second year with us, but he is really getting better all the time.”

Junior Quarterback Todd Reesing

On playing Texas:

“I grew up in Austin, obviously watching the Horns. My dad went to UT. So I would be lying if I told you it wasn’t a little bit bigger for me. You got to try to not make it as big to yourself, but it is going to be fun. I grew up watching Texas and cheering for them, so now that I am playing against them it will be a lot of fun.”

On the Big 12 North Race:

“At this point things haven’t gone the way we would have liked them to. Last week obviously was a big game for us in terms of stepping up and playing for the Big 12 North, but that is obviously out of our hands at this point. This week we just have to go out there and play our best. We are playing a very good Texas team that is ranked real high and it one of the best teams in the nation. They are coming to our place on senior day and it is the last time for our seniors to go out there and play in front of our home crowd. We are going to lay it all out on the line and see if we can get a win and the upset.”

On the current senior class’s home success:

“You always want to send your seniors out with a win and that is why senior day is such a big deal. It is the last time you get to play at Memorial Stadium. It is going to be a crowded house and I know that everyone is going to be excited and have a positive attitude this week. We are just going to practice hard, get ready, and try to bounce back.

Senior Linebacker James Holt

On what senior day means:

“There is a lot of history in that stadium. I will always remember the first game that I played in it. It will mean a lot to all of the seniors and hopefully we can play a good game and just leave it all out there and give the people a good show.”

On getting a signature win for the year:

“Definitely with it being senior day and getting to go against No. 4 ranked Texas, a real powerhouse team, would be great to go out and pull an upset that would be a tremendous statement for the senior class.”

Junior Cornerback Justin Thornton

On helping the younger cornerbacks believe in themselves:

“A lot of guys came in knowing that they could compete and play. After being at practice with them all year we know that they can play and we are taking it upon ourselves to keep beating it into their heads that they can play at this level and they are here for a reason.”

On James Holt:

“Moving him around has been a great thing for us. He gives us the chance to blitz from different angles and play different coverages from different spots. He is great around the ball and he just gets the job done. He is a great athlete. If you get him matched up against bigger, slower guys he will beat them with speed. He isn’t the biggest or heaviest guy, but he plays hard and has a nose for the ball.”

Junior Safety Darrell Stuckey

On his thoughts of playing Texas this week:

“It’s one of those games that you go into where you have to do everything right. You have to execute every play and can’t have a lot of mental mistakes, because they will exploit them and take advantage of them. Texas is one of those teams that builds on what they can do to put themselves in a position to move forward. Our best opportunity is to do the same thing and go out there and focus on what we are doing right, focus on making our plays and executing on our side of the ball.”

Senior Defensive End John Larson

On playing in his last home game as a Jayhawk:

“You walk around and everything’s starting to look a little different, knowing that you aren’t going to get on that field again. I think the whole senior class is really looking forward to this weekend.”

Sophomore Wide Receiver Dezmon Briscoe

On his record-breaking year at receiver for Kansas:

“It’s a blessing, I haven’t really paid much attention to it though. I usually find out from the media.”

On the key to his improvement over last year:

“My work ethic has always been good, but I came into this season with a little more of a chip on my shoulder, knowing that we need to build on what we did last season. Film time and coming in and watching the opponents by myself or with some of the veterans on the team. They have helped me how to read a zone and how to beat man coverage.”

Senior Defensive End Russell Brorsen

On why he chose to play at Kansas:

“Coming out of high school I didn’t really have a lot of options. This was my best option by far, because it gave me a chance to play in the Big 12 and that’s why I came here.”

On what being named to the Lott Trophy watch list means to him:

“I feel that it was an achievement, I think there were 40 players on it. I think being named to a watch list shows that you have done a little bit in the college football world.”

NOTES...

FINAL HOME GAME FOR 18 SENIORS -- The Texas game will be the final home contest for 18 Kansas seniors, including DE Richard Alspaugh, S Tang Bacheyie, DE Russell Brorsen, WR Micah Brown, WR Raymond Brown, OC Ryan Cantrell, OT Matt Darton, WR Dexton Fields, WR Gary Green, CB Kendrick Harper, OG Chet Hartley, WR Marcus Herford, LB James Holt, DE John Larson, OG Adrian Mayes, LB Joe Mortensen, S Patrick Resby, and LB Mike Rivera.

THE LAST FOUR YEARS -- In the last four years, this senior group has been a part of some special things in Kansas football history. Among the numerous highlights are:

• Combined 31-16 record with two games left.

• 31 wins are the second-most in a four-year period in KU history behind the 32-6 record from 1896-99

• Produced at least six wins in four straight seasons for the first time since 1903-06.

• Saw home attendance average records set in each of the last four years.

• Posted two undefeated home seasons (2005 and 2007).

• Recorded a 23-3 home record in their four years.

• Played in first January bowl game since 1969 with last year's FedEx Orange Bowl victory.

• Could reach bowl game for the second straight year, the first bowl games in consecutive seasons in school history.

• Returned to the national polls in 2007, the Jayhawks' first ranking since 1996.

• Were part of a school-record 19 straight weeks in the Associated Press poll.

Hawk Talk...Week 8 Pregame

Denverjhawk — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 12:00:06 -0000

A look at news and notes about Jayhawks and upcoming opponents...

The Good Guys...

The pass defense seems to be turning a corner.
Surpise...pressure on Sam Bradford will be key this week.
Several current KU football contributors will be returning to their home state this weekend.
KU Notes 1, KU Notes 2, KU Notes 3
Here's why the KU offense is the wild card this weekend.
KU faces an uphill battle in the minds of many this weekend.
Coach shakes up the special teams.
The Secondary has a tough task this weekend.
KC Star game preview.
Esteban posted this earlier in the week...but I thought it was so good I'm putting it in the pregame...Kerry Meier article.
Coach Mangino prefers being the underdog.

The Bad Guys...

The Oklahoma running game has seen it's struggles this year.
More on the Native Oklahomans on the KU Roster.
Brent Venebles talks about his relationship with Coach Mangino.
Article about the bond between Stoops and Mangino.

A full list of supplemental notes released by the athletic dept...and here are some highlights...

A Kansas win would...

Give KU a win against the AP’s fourth-ranked team, marking the highest ranked opponent KU defeated since beating #4 Colorado 40-24 at Boulder in 1995.

Give KU six straight Big 12 road victories.

A Kansas loss would...

Be less good than a win.

Todd Reesing should add to KU Career Record Charts...

Reesing (462) needs just six completions to pass Frank Seurer (467) for the KU career completion record.

Reesing (6,074) needs just 39 yards to pass Frank Seurer (6,112) for the KU career total offense record.

Reesing (4) needs one 300-yard passing game to tie his school season record of five that he set last year.

Things to look for against Oklahoma…

Kansas has recorded at least 400 yards of total offense in five straight games.

Kansas has held its opponent to less than 200 yards rushing in 33 consecutive games.

WR Kerry Meier(53) needs six receptions to pass Bob Johnson (58) for third and 11 to pass Dexton Fields’ 2007 total of 63, for second on the KU season receptions list.

DE Jake Laptad has recorded a sack in three straight games.

Meier the go to Guy…

62 percent (33 of 53) of his receptions have been for first downs.

36 percent (12 of 33) of his first-down producing receptions have come on third or fourth down.

My Thoughts...Well my worst nightmare has come true. I won't be able to watch as the Kansas Jayhawks defeat the mighty Oklahoma Sooners.

Hawk Talk the morning after edition will not include my thoughts so I will post the articles and you all tell me what you saw.

As far as before the game, this is what college football is all about. Meaningful battles as a top 25 team. Kansas will need to put together a complete game. We have to win the field position battle through an improved special teams and continue to limit mistakes on offense. The defense is playing their best football of the year the last game and a half and needs to carry that over against a truly top tier opponent. If they do all these things the enormous chip on the shoulder of every Kansas player that should exist from being a three touchdown dog should take care of the rest.

Make no mistake, Oklahoma is probably the more talented team, but then again when hasn't that been the case. Mark Mangino does an outstanding job of keeping his team, his coaches and everyone focused on the task at hand and this week that just happens to be Oklahoma. This is about as optimistic view and fluff of a prediction you've seen from me all week but I'm just really feeling like this is happening.

Final score KU 37...OU 31 (What? do you really want me to pick against them)

Oh and another KU team kicks off their season tonight. You may have heard of them...the defending National Champions Kansas Basketball Jayhawks. We'll take a look at that later, it's still football season.

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part One)

Bill C. — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:00:07 -0000

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough. I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Missouri (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Points Per Play
Redzone Defense
Q4 Rushing Offense
3rd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team? Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+. On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+. After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season. And the rushing offense was solid too. They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008? Defensively, good things. Lots of good things. Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon. Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4. If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou. But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there. Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance. Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone. Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field.

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot. Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas. Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State). They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert). Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule. They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

Kansas (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense (particularly success rates)
Offensive Line Yards
Pass Defense Success Rates
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Defensive Passing S&P+
#4: Defensive EqPts+, Defensive Close-Game Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#106: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#98: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#94: Defensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#90: Offensive Q1 S&P+

Kansas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

To me, the 2008 KU season will be determined by how they handle two things: 1) offensive line deficiencies and 2) a harder schedule...and to a slightly lesser extent, 3) special teams deficiencies. Their '+' numbers show that they would have probably done just fine with a harder schedule in 2007--they did play quite a few weak teams, but they still did better against those weak teams than most did. Taking strength of schedule into account, they still finished in my Top 10 in both offense and defense. I'd be surprised if the offense finished that high again--with OL problems and the losses of go-to guys Brandon McAnderson and Marcus Henry--the latter of whom I didn't touch on here, but who himself carried KU's offense at times, particularly against Oklahoma State--I could see KU's offense falling back into the #30-35 range. The defense however, should only go up. They have to replace James McClinton and Aqib Talib, but the personnel and experience levels are strong here, and unless the loss of DC Bill Young means more than I think it will mean, KU should end up with a Top 5 defense in my '+' rankings in 2008.

The main problem is, of course, the schedule. They travel to South Florida on 9/20. USF's offense isn't amazing, but it should still put up a few points. This will be the first major test in 2008 of KU's offense, and how it responds to George Selvie and an overall tough unit will determine the game. The conference schedule, meanwhile, includes trips to Norman (ouch) and Lincoln (NU will be looking for revenge), and it wouldn't be completely surprising for KU to go 0-2 in those two. The good news is that Texas Tech and Texas both have to come to Lawrence, and while they should win one of the two, winning both will be a chore.

This is a very good team, and there's no gimme loss on the schedule (okay, I guess the trip to Norman is a bit of a gimme). But while KU eeked by the likes of Colorado and ATM on the way to starting 11-0, they'll now have to beat at least two ranked teams (USF, OU) on the road, along with two more (TT, UT) at home to match that start in '08. And that's probably not going to happen.

Verdict: The running game was what made this offense click--without it, KU struggled--and it's unclear yet whether the Jake Sharp/Jocques Crawford combination can succeed at the same level as McAnderson did, especially without their All-American LT. This is the biggest question mark on a team with a strong leader at QB (Todd Reesing), a couple of dynamic weapons at WR (Dexton Fields, Dezmon Briscoe), and a top-to-bottom tough defense (led by LBs Joe Mortensen, Mike Rivera, and James Holt).

Colorado (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Rushing Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#11: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#13: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#13: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#122: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#120: Offensive Non-Passing Downs Rushing S&P+
#117: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+

Colorado Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Will Colorado be able to run the ball when it counts?

The answer to this one comes down to one name: Darrell Scott. Assuming he's ready for the opening bell, the All-World true freshman from California will be given every opportunity to carry the Colorado offense. If he doesn't do it, I doubt anybody else on that roster can. So let's focus on him.

...

[H]ere's roughly what we can expect from Scott this season:

NONCONFERENCE: 45.1% success rate / 0.38 PPP / 0.827 S&P
CONFERENCE: 41.9% / 0.33 PPP / 0.751 S&P
BOWL (assuming they make one): 36.8% / 0.56 PPP / 0.933 S&P

Over a 13-game season, this would result in the following averages: 42.5% success rate / 0.36 PPP / 0.789 S&P

Is that good? Bad? Well...Texas' Jamaal Charles put up a 0.958 S&P last season, so it's not amazing. But over the course of 20 touches/game, that's still going to be pretty productive.

Let's put it this way: last year, CU's three main RBs--Charles, Lockridge, Sumler--went for a line of 40.8% / 0.31 PPP /0.717 S&P. Scott's line would represent a 10% improvement over that...and 10% less pressure on Cody Nolte-Hawkins to make plays.

Anybody who watched Scott's highlight reel knows how good this guy is. But it takes the rarest of rare freshmen--ahem, Adrian Peterson--to make such a gigantic impact in his debut season...especially on a team with few weapons (and a relatively weak O-Line) around him. Maybe Scott really is that special...but most likely he's going to put up average to above-average numbers in 2008 before possibly busting out in 2009.

...

Bottom line: CU's defense will probably be about the same in 2008, and their offense will be at least marginally better...but probably not so much better that they can think about making a New Years Day Bowl run or anything. Honestly, with this year's schedule CU should really just feel glad to make a bowl and continue upon last year's progress. The home slate includes West Virginia and Texas, while they have to travel to Florida State (technically Jacksonville), Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Right now the schedule contains three likely wins (Colorado State, E'ern Washington, Iowa State), five likely losses (WV, @FlaSt, Texas, @KU, @MU), and four tossups (KSU, @ATM, OSU, @NU). To make it to 8-4, they'd have to win all four tossups AND spring an upset.

Dan Hawkins is building a decent program here, but I think we won't find out how high this program's ceiling is until the 2009 season. If they can tread water and make a repeat visit to Shreveport (or maybe Houston or Arizona...maybe El Paso) this December, they'll have to feel they did pretty well.

Verdict: As good as Darrell Scott could be by the end of the year (they're breaking him in slowly and not starting him--plus he's a bit banged up right now), CU will go as far as their defense takes them this year. Missouri game aside, they were pretty good against the pass, and that will serve them well in a division stocked with variations of the spread offense. Plus, George Hypolite is a nice, disruptive force on the D-line. But...good god, is that schedule brutal.

Kansas State (3-5)

Game-Changing Stats

Offensive Line Yards (particularly non-passing downs)
2nd Down Defense
Q4 Defense
1st Down Offense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#8: Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+
#10: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#15: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#123: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#122: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#117: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Kansas State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So how far can KSU get in 2008 with a stout front seven on defense, a decent QB, solid special teams...a shaky secondary, and question marks everywhere else on offense? Again, I think the onus falls on the running game. If Patton (or whoever) can move the ball reliably, the schedule is rather manageable.

...

Anyway, an undefeated non-con slate certainly isn't out of the question, as that trip to Louisville doesn't seem as daunting as it might have a year ago.

KSU starts the conference slate with a 4-of-6-on-the-road stretch--if they can win one road game out of trips to College Station, Boulder, Lawrence, and Columbia, they should consider it tremendous progress. Meanwhile, their two homegames in that stretch are against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. OUCH.

So really, I'd say the best-case scenario for KSU is to be 2-4 at that point (best best case is 3-3, as for some reason I think the KU-KSU game will be a dogfight, even in Lawrence). If they're, say, 1-5 at that point and 4-6 overall (or, even worse, 0-6 and 3-7), I'd say it won't matter that they finish with home games against ISU and NU. The players might be in full mail-it-in stage as they were last November, and the Prince administration could be on its last legs.

A total collapse is certainly a reasonable scenario with that schedule, but another decent start to the season, and 4-4/8-4 is reasonable too. I'll hedge my bets and predict a 7-5 record here, with an undefeated non-conference slate and conference wins over NU, ISU, and...uhh...someone else. CU, maybe. Or Tech. Somebody.

Verdict: The more I think about K-State, the less convinced I am that they'll totally collapse this year. (Then again, the more I thought about test answers in school, the more likely I was to get them wrong.) While I do think the limitations of Josh Freeman (accuracy), the secondary (not enough firepower to compete seriously in the North), and Ron Prince (not being a very good coach) put KSU's ceiling at around 8-4, I do think they're relatively likely to sneak back into bowl consideration after a monstrous collapse in November '07.

Nebraska (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Success Rates
2nd Down Rushing Defense
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Non-Passing Downs Passing Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Passing Downs S&P+
#3: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#117: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#113: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Nebraska Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So what can we expect from Nebraska in 2008? The easy answer is, who the hell knows? They're the biggest unknown quantity in the conference outside of Manhattan, KS. But we won't settle for that easy answer.

Nebraska's offense averaged 0.27 more PPP with Joe Ganz behind center than with Sam Keller. That's not sustainable. But 0.10 may be within the realm of possibility. Over the course of 60-80 plays, that's a TD more per game. That may be a bit much, but we'll go with it.

On defense, NU just doesn't have enough talent in the front seven to improve too considerably. They have a series of DE's--Barry Turner, Zach Potter, and especially Pierre Allen--who have shown varying amounts of potential, but who haven't proven themselves to be every-down playmakers. Maybe a 'fire under the ass' coach like Pelini will be what they need...and maybe not. Ty Steinkuhler and Ndamukong Suh could be solid at DT, but Steinkuhler is limited and Suh completely disappeared after a decent start to '07. At LB...their leading playmaker is Tyler Wortman...who made all of 3.5 'successful' tackles in '07. Ouch.

(That's the other thing--even though their defense was wretched, players who made 70% of their 'successful' tackles departed after '07.)

Despite the lack of potential, let's say that the defense also improves by 0.10 PPP, which would be hefty improvement. That would mean the offense and defense are both 7 points better. Well...five of NU's seven losses were by 18 points or more. A 14-point improvement doesn't take you that far. That would, however, take them back to the Oklahoma State-level in regard to overall performance. That's a decent step in the right direction, and it--along with their massive homefield advantage--is why I said in yesterday's Roundtable that 8-4 is quite possible.

Verdict: I'll stick with what I said above. Despite the fact that college football wants Nebraska to be good, their ceiling is also pretty well-defined. Your defense can only improve so much in one year, but Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky (the main reason for those great 3rd down numbers above), and a great homefield advantage will move Nebraska back into the bowl picture.

Iowa State (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Defense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#14: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#22: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#22: Defensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#24: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+
#124: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+

In all, Iowa State ranked #100 or worse in exactly 50 of my 100 '+' categories. In a conference full of offensive firepower, Iowa State had less than none. Meanwhile, it seems almost every team in the country was good enough to rank in the Top 10 in one of the 100 '+' categories. Iowa State managed to rank in the Top 25 in only four.

Iowa State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

The following things are quite possible:

Iowa State could once again play over their heads and win a couple games they shouldn't, just by being physical, taking advantage of turnovers, and slogging through to victory in the fourth quarter.

In their second year of adapting to his philosophy, ISU's defense could improve despite losses to their front seven.

Alexander Robinson could have a breakout (i.e. 800-1000 yard) season.

One of the WR newcomers (or somebody...anybody...) could become at least something of a deep threat to the tune of 1.00 PPP or more.

The secondary could be in the top half of the Big 12.

And...

If all those "coulds" come to fruition...Iowa State could win 6 games.

The ceiling's not very high for ISU this year, but a lot of the likely key cogs for the 2008 edition will return in 2009, when (as has been written here many, many, many times before) the North goes completely up for grabs again. Not saying the balance of power could shift in the direction of Ames by any means, but with an experienced offense and potentially mean defense, they could at least make some noise in '09. Just not in '08.

Verdict: I'm not sure if a college football team has ever missed a 4-year starting QB less than Iowa State will miss Bret Meyer in 2008. However...on an offense that was so horrible in so many different ways, Meyer can only shoulder so much blame. Expect incremental improvement in just about every unit, and expect Iowa State to be in position to steal a game here or there, but...the talent gap between Iowa State and most of the rest of the conference is just ginormous.

BALANCE OF POWER

Part Two (South Division and predictions) tomorrow.