SB Nation - Josh Freeman

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

Can The Wildcats Handle OU’s Defensive Front? A Conversation With Bring On The Cats

ccmachine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:25:30 -0000

As we inch closer to Saturday night's kickoff we've invited TB from SBN's Kansas State blog, Bring On The Cats, to visit with us about the 2009 Wildcats and their match-up with our Sooners. I also did a Q&A with BOTC that should be posted sometime in the near future so make sure to check them out to get the Sooner perspective of this conversation.

CC Machine: Other than the lopsided loss to Texas Tech Big 12 conference play has been good to the Wildcats. How has this team improved since losing back-to-back road games to Louisiana Lafayette and UCLA?

TB: The biggest change has been on offense. In the first conference game, Grant Gregory started at quarterback in place of Carson Coffman. He sparked the offense by keeping plays alive with his feet, absorbing contact on the option and quarterback draws, and by finding receivers downfield occasionally for big plays. With all due respect to Carson Coffman, he has provided the offense with an added dimension.

That's in the micro sense, of course. In the macro sense, the entire team has improved over time. Obviously, we installed an entirely new offensive system, and it took those guys a while to pick it up. Having defensive coaches who could actually, you know, coach was a new thing, too, and the defense has had a few growing pains. But the improvement is mostly due to the old Bill Snyder mantra: keep chopping wood and you'll get a little better every day.

CC Machine: With the Wildcats sitting on top of the North and a 5-3 record are KSU fans, for the most part, optimistic or pessimistic right now?

TB: For the most part, I would say very cautiously optimistic. It's hard to be too pessimistic when you've won two in a row and lead the division by a full game, but I think most fans realize there's a lot of work left to do. While I throw the "cautiously" qualifier in there, it still galls a lot of K-State fans that some outlets are treating this as just a nice little story, sure to fade as the Wildcats enter the four-game "gauntlet" to finish the season and inevitably come crashing back to earth. Maybe that will happen, but at this point, you can't say it's any more likely for K-State than for KU, Missouri or Nebraska.

CC Machine: K-State has given up 16 sacks going into the game against OU. How much does that stat scare you as the Wildcats prepare to face Oklahoma's defensive front?

TB: It's as scary as haunted houses were to me when I saw a kid, and I was a really big scaredy-cat as a kid. The biggest problem in the Colorado game, when our offense stagnated in the second half, was the fact that Gregory couldn't drop back, survey the field, and find an open man. Before he could even complete his drop, he had to look down to see which DL had shrugged his block and was already in his face. If we can't establish a running game to slow the OU pass rush, we are toast. Well, we're probably toast anyway, but we'll be extraordinarily burnt toast if we can't slow down the pass rush.

CC Machine: Brandon Banks has been exceptional in the return game. Tell us about some other KSU players that we should be aware of before Saturday night's game.

TB: At running back, Daniel Thomas is a guy to keep an eye on. He is playing hurt right now with a banged-up shoulder, but ran for 145 yards on 20 carries against a CU team that decimated the Texas and KU running attacks prior to meeting K-State. He doesn't break a lot of big plays, but he's big, he's strong, and he finds the crease.

At wide receiver, Lamark Brown will be hard to stop if our line can ever give Gregory time to find him. He's huge, so he has a size advantage on most DBs, and he's fast enough to outrun a lot of DBs. He hasn't gotten open a lot this year, which leads me to believe he may not be running the best routes, but if he ever goes off, he's really going to go off.

On defense, Jeffrey Fitzgerald gets things going on the DL. In the last two games, we've tallied 10 sacks, and that is after only recording six through the first six games. Something seems to be clicking with this crew, and Fitzgerald is the best of the bunch.

CC Machine: KSU's offensive strength is their rushing attack (2^nd in the Big 12/186.5 ypg) and Oklahoma's defensive strength is stopping the run (2^nd in the Big 12/70.1 ypg). How do you see this playing out, for or against, the Wildcats on Saturday night?

TB: It's absolutely crucial that we be able to run the ball. If OU can stop the run without putting eight guys in the box, we're toast. Gregory is a solid quarterback, but nobody is confusing his passing ability with that of Josh Freeman. If he has defenders in his face and the OU secondary blanketing the field, we're in for a lot of three-and-outs.

CC Machine: What gives you the most confidence heading into this game?

TB: Mostly the fact that this team is clearly getting better every week. Confidence is at an all-time high right now after a blowout over Texas A&M and a solid beating of Colorado. We knew this coaching staff would install schemes that work, but until the players see the results, they will never get to their full potential. If they keep working hard, getting better, and executing what the coaches teach them, they're going to achieve goals beyond their wildest imaginations. That almost assuredly won't include a win over OU, but we knew this process wasn't going to have us competing with OU in less than a year.

Ha! Scaredy-cat, I get it!

Q & A with Bring On The Cats

Seth C — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:00:45 -0000

Thanks to TB from Bring on the Cats for doing a little Q & A with DTN.

1. Head coach Bill Snyder inserted Grant Gregory into the starting lineup last week against ISU, what does he bring to the table that's different than Case Coffman?

Mostly, he seemed to make better decisions. One of our biggest frustrations with Coffman was that he took too many sacks by standing in the pocket and not eluding the rush. Gregory showed a very nice ability to sense the rush, avoid it, buy some time, and keep his eyes downfield. He also had a better sense of when to tuck it and run. We've seen a couple times this year when Coffman has 20 yards of open space in front of him and he still looks for someone to throw it to.

On another K-State message board, there's a serious debate raging right now as to who has a better arm between the two. Suffice it to say, neither of them are going to get into a gunslinging contest with Josh Freeman, but Gregory was pretty sharp Saturday.

2. Thus far, the defense has really limited opponents thus far (7th in passing defense and 38th in rushing defense), who has performed above expectations and what, if anything, can the defense do to improve?

Only Tysyn Hartman has really exceeded expectations. He was converted from quarterback to safety last year, and has done a tremendous job back there. After last week, he ought to have two more interceptions, but somehow let two certain interceptions go right through his hands while playing centerfield against Iowa State.

Other than that, everyone's a little better, but nobody has exceeded expectations. The biggest difference this year is scheme and positioning. Nobody is blowing open 10-yard wide holes in the middle of the defense. The tackling fundamentals are still generally subpar, but at least first contact is being made at the line of scrimmage or a yard or two downfield, rather than deep into the secondary.

As for getting better, we really, really need DE Brandon Harold to get healthy. He was injured during fall practice and hasn't played yet. Harold was a freshman All-America last season, and this defensive line desperately needs some help. If Harold were in there, other teams would be forced to double him, opening up Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Daniel Calvin to make plays. I don't think he'll be back this week, but we could really use him if we're going to get pressure on Tech's QB with our front four.

3. The offense has done a great job rushing the ball this year, is this a case where the offensive line is doing a better job, the running backs are playing better, or a general change in philosophy.

It's a little of all three. Our offensive line was projected to be a strength coming into the season because it was supposed to be experienced. Injuries have hampered the development somewhat, but overall the line play has been solid, if not spectacular.

It's probably a dead heat between a change in philosophy and better running backs. Clearly, Bill Snyder has decided that we are going to pound the rock, control the clock, and thereby take pressure off our defense. I think we still lead the country in time of possession.

Of course, you can't overlook what Daniel Thomas has meant to this team. Coaches and teammates alike raved about his abilities in fall practice, and he hasn't disappointed, ranking 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game. At 6'3", 227 lbs., he's solid, and he isn't slow. In junior college, he played some quarterback, so you'll likely see him take some snaps in the Wildcat formation (we can go ahead and call it the Wildcat, rather than Wildhog or Wildhorn or whatever ridiculous nomenclature other teams use), although he hasn't thrown very many passes out of that formation yet.

4. Speaking of change in philosophy, what is the biggest philosophical change that Snyder has implemented with KSU? Perhaps one item from the field and one item off the field.

On the field, it's undoubtedly a focus on the running game. We use a fullback, we run some zone read, a little option, and some rushing out of the Wildcat formation. It's a huge change from Ron Prince, where the idea was "let Freeman sling it all over the field and see what happens." Freeman was an incredible talent, but he didn't have a great supporting cast, and without any balance it would have been hard for any quarterback to do anything well.

Off the field, I'm not sure I can differentiate among the things that have changed. I'll go ahead and say that the biggest change is that he knows how to manage a roster. We no longer worry that we'll burn somebody's redshirt in the ninth game of the year so he can play on two special teams plays. Despite Snyder's reputation, I also no longer fear that he'll bring in 19 junior college recruits as some desperate ploy either to save his job or send Freeman to the NFL with a bang.

5. General thoughts about the game on Saturday, what do you expect Kansas St. to try to do both offensively and defensively.

Offensively, it'll be more of the same. Snyder is going to try and run the ball down Tech's throat. I'm sure he's seen the film of Tech against Houston and New Mexico, and both games reveal that Tech's defense has apparently gone missing since the trip to Austin. Further, he adheres to the old cliche that the other team can't score when they don't have the ball. Just like Nebraska did in Lubbock last year, Snyder is going to try and control the ball for 35-40 minutes and hope that Tech doesn't have 20 one-minute scoring drives. If he can get the running game established, K-State may actually have a chance here, because I can see a few well-timed play-actions or Grant Gregory-scrambles working out well.

On defense, we are not a team that's going to blitz you to death. Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh are content to let the front four try and get pressure -- it hasn't worked very well this year -- while focusing on sound assignment football with the linebackers and secondary. Our secondary actually is pretty solid this year; the linebackers are another story. And as we all know against Tech, it doesn't matter how good your secondary is, because if your line doesn't get pressure, Tech's QB (whomever it is) will pick you apart. If Harold isn't back for this game, we need to hope for a combination of an off game for the Tech playmakers and some good coverage from our secondary. Josh Moore is a very good cornerback on one side, which should reduce the options available each time the ball is snapped.

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Nestor — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

We will leave it to others for now to write and speculate about UCLA making a move in the Pac-10. Here on the home page of BN, we will stick to the mantra that has worked for us for years: keep our focus on our next opponent. With a record of 4-8 in 2008, we are not the kind of program that has the luxury to look ahead. Coming into this season the goal for Rick Neuheisel and his football team was to get into a bowl game with at least 6 regular season victories. With a 2-0 start and a win at a difficult place like the Neyland Stadium, it puts us in a must win situation this week in our last remaining non conference game before the start of a tough Pac-10 schedule.

Our next opponent – Kansas State Wildcats – are off to a very rough start in 2009. The Wildcats struggled to beat UMass at home (a team which just started playing D-1A ball this year) and then they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 15-17. The takes from our SBN colleagues at Bring On The Cats (BTC) are understandably gloomy. Sportsline.com also put their recent loss "in perspective":

Let's put this one in perspective: Louisiana had not defeated a school from a BCS conference since Sept. 14, 1996, when Jake Delhomme led the Ragin' Cajuns to a 29-22 upset of No. 25 Texas A&M. Overall, the Cajuns were just 1-15 against teams from the Big 12 Conference.

That, however, was before Saturday's 17-15 victory over Kansas State in Lafayette.

"It's probably disheartening to a lot of people," coach Bill Snyder said of the loss, which dipped the Wildcats to 1-1. "I want our guys to be disappointed."

Still, if anyone wants to get all smug and disrespect the KSU, I’d suggest browsing through Tennessee blogs and message boards last week and revisit those bold predictions of the Volunteers cruising to a victory.

Last week it was our team that went into the opponent’s turf with nothing to lose. This week it will be the Kansas State Wildcats, who will be coming into the Rose Bowl as double digit underdogs, looking to sneak up with nothing to lose on a Bruin football team and fanbase feeling good about a SEC road win. Add to those factors we will most likely be breaking in a true freshman QB as a starter, a revamped OL which is improving but still working to gel as a unit, and all the inexperience at other offensive skill positions, Bruins will need to be on high alert. So with those toplines let’s get to some initial notes on Kansas Sate.

The story of these Wildcats begin with their head coach Bill Snyder who returned to Manhattan to clean up the mess left behind by inept regime of Ron Prince. If CRN’s return to UCLA is the "return of the prodigious son," Snyder’s return to Manhattan can be looked as "the Return Of the Godfather". Paul Meyerberg from the New York Times’ put Snyder’s record in perspective in his pre-season Wildcat preview:

The Wildcats went 137-445-18 from 1935-1988, the year before Snyder’s arrival. The program finished with only five winning seasons over this 54-year span: 1936, 1953-54, 1970 and 1982; that’s three fewer winning seasons than the program had winless seasons over that time. When Snyder arrived in late 1988, the program was mired in a streak of 27 consecutive games without a win (under Stan Parrish, the new coach at Ball State). While he did not immediately make K.S.U. into a winner – the Wildcats won 18 games in his first four seasons – the program took the next step forward in 1993, when it finished 9-3-1 and set a team record for points in a season (312). That year marked the first of 11 nine-win or better seasons in 12 years for the Wildcats, including a stretch from 1997 to 2003 of six 11-win seasons in seven years, making K-State only the second program in F.B.S. history to have such an extended streak of tremendous play. In 1998, an historic win over rival Nebraska pushed K-State to the top spot in the A.P. poll, the first time the team stood atop the college football landscape. That year – which ended with the Wildcats at No. 4 nationally – might have been the apex of the program, but Snyder continued to field annual conference and B.C.S. contenders. Kansas State won its first conference championship since 1934 in 2003, when it upset heavily favored and then-No. 1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. However, the team struggled in the following two seasons, finishing a combined 9-15, leading many to question whether Snyder could still coach at a high level. Hence Snyder’s decision after the 2004 season (mutual, by all accounts) to step down, leading K.S.U. to hire Prince.

Well Prince ran the program into the ground (just like Karl Dorrell). Luckily for KSU it took them three years to recognize that fact, so they brought in Synder to clean up the mess. Apparently he is kind of a character as noted by the bloggers at Barking Carnival (Texas Longhorns blog) in their hilarious 2009 preview of Kansas State. It’s pretty funny (not very politically correct) read, all though I am sure it’s not amusing to fans of KSU (and it includes the usual easy cheap shots at Neuheisel that seems to be SOP for fans of most Big-12 teams).

As for the team, the biggest challenge for Kansas State this season has been replacing quarterback Josh Freeman, who was a first round draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. Freeman left KSU after his junior season, setting the school’s holds career mark for passing yards (8,078), touchdowns (40), completions (663), attempts (1,121) and total offense (8,080). So far the QBs seeking to step up for Freeman have been struggling. From TB at BTC:

At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

I imagine Coffman and Gregory’s struggle have the Wildcats frustrated because at least per the pre-season reviews they had some weapons to work with and were coming into the season with a decent offensive line:

Despite losing Murphy (Deon Murphy, who finished third on the team in receptions with 37, and second on the squad in receiving yards (555) and touchdowns (6)) and Pierce (Ernie Pierce, whose 15.7 yards per catch average (24 for 424 yards) led the team), the deepest position on the Kansas State offense is wide receiver. The team brings back the 2008 Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year in the senior Brandon Banks, who led the team in receptions (67), yards (1,049) and touchdowns (9) in his first season with the program. Banks, like Murphy before him, excels in the return game, as shown in his 27.7 yards per kick return average. He will be joined at receiver by the senior Aubrey Quarles (34 receptions for 407 yards) and the junior Lamark Brown (24 for 178). Brown spent much of his 2008 season at running back, leading the team in rushing (412 yards). Another weapon to watch in the passing game is the senior tight end Jeron Mastrud, who made 38 receptions for 455 yards a season ago. The senior Keithen Valentine is expected to assume the starting running back role, but the freshman Jarell Childs and the sophomore Logan Dold will also receive carries. The offensive line may have lost three starters, but the team does return a numbers of players with past starting experience. Leading the way is the senior Nick Stringer, a 2008 all-Big 12 honorable mention pick at left tackle. He brings 23 career starts into his final season, most among all Wildcat offensive linemen. Stringer and guard Eric Benoit are the only seniors on the current two-deep, so this will be a young group in 2009. Still, the line could be surprisingly strong this fall, especially if it gets good production from the plethora of sophomores battling for starting roles.

Brandon Banks is off to a slow start for the Wilcats per Sportsline.com. Banks had just three catches for 33 yards against Louisiana, after catching seven balls for 67 yards in the opening win over UMass. So, if I were the Bruin DBs, I’d keep a close eye on him. Meanwhile, DB Daniel Thomas is off to good start as he has put together back to back 100 yards rushing games (I know, I know ... look at the opponent) in his first two games (136 yards in 27 carries against Louisiana, which followed a 104 yard game against UMass).

I think it will be interesting to see how the Bruin defense comes out on Saturday. I am sure it’s not lost on them that despite their solid (some would call it outstanding) performance in last two weeks, they didn’t really come out and set a dominating tone in their first series. Especially as good as the performances have been from Rahim Moore, ATV, Reggie Carter, Brian Price, and the Bosworth brothers, we can use more focused performance from kids such as Akeem Ayers. Our defense still has room to grow to reach it full potential, and the team with a new quarterback will be really looking to them to set the tone on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball Wildcats have some athletes on the defensive side with two solid ends on the frontline:

The team returns two solid ends in the sophomore Brandon Harold (45 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a 2008 freshman all-American, and the senior Eric Childs (52 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Harold is the most likely current Wildcat to continue the team’s recent tradition of standout defensive ends. In the middle, K.S.U. should be very excited about what the senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald can do for the team’s run defense (217.7 yards per game last fall). Fitzgerald, who sat out all of last fall after transferring in from Virginia, may be the best player on the entire defense.

The Wildcats return two starters at linebacker, including the sophomore Alex Hrebec. A former walk-on, Hrebec stuffed the stat sheet last fall with 68 tackles (4 for loss), 2.5 sacks and an interception. It’s rare enough to see a walk-on earn a starting role for a B.C.S.-conference program; it’s rarer still to see a walk-on start as a redshirt freshman. Joining him at linebacker is the senior Ulla Pomele (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss), a former JUCO transfer. K-State’s secondary is led by the junior Joshua Moore, a 2008 honorable mention all-Big 12 pick and a potential all-American this fall. Moore concluded his sophomore campaign first on the team in both tackles (76) and interceptions (3), illustrating his importance to the overall success of the defense. Moore is the best Wildcat cornerback since Terence Newman. He is joined in the secondary by three talented safeties: Chris Carney, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon.

Well not sure if Harold will be available for this weekend’s game as per their roster report on CBS he has been sitting out with an injury (along with DE Kadero Terrell and AR Aubrey Quarles). Perhaps the Kansas State fans who are lurking on BN this week, can provide us with a more up to date take on the injury situation. As for the other guys, Pete Fiutak from College Football News called Joshua Moore the best defensive player for KSU heading into this season.

I think the key here will be all about game management. We will need our quarterback to do what Prince did fairly effectively as a first year starter in his first two games: minimize mistakes and do what he can to keep the chains moving. This will be one of those games that will present Chow and his offense an opportunity to execute the strategy of picking up 4 yards or more per rushing attempts, and putting the offense in manageable situations on second and third downs. If we can combine that with continued stellar play from our special teams we will have a good chance to keep the momentum going heading into a bye week.

That’s what I have for now. I am looking forward to learning up about Kansas State, the same way we keep discussing Tennessee this past week. We will be reading up more on KSU during the week. If you have your own perspective to offer up wrt to Saturdays’ matchups fire the quick takes in the comment threads and the extended ones in FanPosts. That invitation goes out to all Kansas State fans who might be visiting BN for the first time. We are looking forward to chatting up football the same way we had fun going back and forth (in respectful and classy way) with the Volunteer fans from last game week. Football should always be about fun.

GO BRUINS.

Postgame Reaction: K-State vs. Louisiana

TB — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:47:05 -0000

More photos » by Leslie Westbrook - AP

Daniel Thomas did what he could, but it wasn't enough to lift K-State to a win against Louisiana. (AP Photo/Leslie Westbrook). (AP Photo/Leslie Westbrook)

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We're going to do things a little differently this week on the postgame reaction. I was at a work function all day yesterday and didn't see any of the action, so I won't be able to comment intelligently -- not that that has ever stopped me before -- on any of the action. So I'm going to give some general thoughts on the game and then open the floor to those of you who either listened on the radio or watched on ESPN 360.

First of all, we probably need to reassess our outlook on this season after this game. That's not intended to take anything away from Louisiana, but if we can't beat a Sun Belt Conference team, we have some serious issues. At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

It's time for K-State fans to face some cold, hard truths. We are probably going to go 4-8, at best, this year. No matter how much we clamor for the "next QB," there's a reason that guy is behind other players on the depth chart. Bill Snyder has forgotten more about football than I'll ever know, and we're just going to have to face the fact that Coffman is our best option at quarterback. I don't mean that as a knock on Coffman, because he shows flashes of being a solid game-managing quarterback. He'll get more consistent with time.

Hit the jump for our opponent watch and some general reaction to other Big 12 games this week. I was busy all day Saturday, and about the only action I caught was the end of the Oklahoma State-Houston game.

Opponent Watch

UMass got back on track with a 44-7 win over Albany on Saturday. Albany is a notable opponent because, in the limited amount of time I was willing to devote to research on the Great Danes, I am unable to discern whether they are an FCS, Division II or Division III program. All I really know is they play in the America East Conference, and UMass smacked them upside the head last night.

In more somber news, upcoming opponent UCLA beat Tennessee on the road this weekend, 19-15. That moves the Bruins to 2-0 on the season. This game between UCLA and Tennessee is more noteworthy because it did nearly as much to set back offensive play as Auburn's 3-2 "victory" over Mississippi State last season. The Bruins won despite picking up only 12 first down and fewer than 200 yards of total offense. I want Bill C. at Rock M Nation to run a BTBS analysis on this game to determine how truly awful these teams were yesterday.

And yes, I say all that knowing that UCLA is likely to kick our asses next weekend in Pasadena.

Toledo 54, Colorado 38: The Dan Hawkins era in Boulder is winding to a slow, painful close. I actually did catch quite a bit of this game during social hour on Friday night, and the Buffs were painfully awful in just about every phase of the game. Giving up 624 yards is pretty unforgiveable, Cody Hawkins is among the worst third-year starters I've ever seen, and Darrell Scott doesn't get nearly enough touches. Still. Check out our game thread for BracketCat's hilarious recap of an entertaining Friday night at The Ralphie Report.

For More: The Ralphie Report

Next Opponent: Wyoming (Boulder, Colo.)

Iowa 35, Iowa 3: All the good feelings from last week's win over NDSU came to a crashing end when the Cyclones laid an egg at home against their in-state rival. Austen Arnaud had one of the worst games in Cyclone history, which is saying a lot, by going 10 of 22 with four interceptions.

For More: Clone Chronicles

Next Opponent: Kent State (Kent, Ohio)

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9: Ho-hum, an easy win for Nebraska against another overmatched opponent. Zac Lee had another solid start, throwing for 340 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. Nebraska's running game was a little weak, gaining only 136 yards, but it didn't make much difference.

For more: Corn Nation

Next Opponent: Virginia Tech (Blacksburg, Va.)

Texas 41, Wyoming 10: A very slow start saw the Longhorns leading only 13-10 at halftime, but the second half was all Texas. Statistically, UT dominated pretty much everything, although Colt McCoy completed a horrendous (wink) 63.8 percent of his passes and once again threw one to the wrong team. Texas gets the conference slate rolling next week as Texas Tech pays a visit to Austin.

For more: Burnt Orange Nation

Next opponent: Texas Tech (Austin, Texas)

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35: Although I wish the Cowboys would have won, I have to toot my own horn for noting in the Big 12 Roundtable this week that OSU had better not sleep on UH. It looks more like the Georgia offense was the cause of Okie State's allegedly resurgent defense, because the Coogs torched the Pokes for 512 yards. Of course, in true Houston fashion, they also gave up 434 and 35 points, but doubt no more the playmaking ability of Case Keenum and Bryce Beall.

Next opponent: Rice (Stillwater, Okla.)

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10: A much better performance this week for the scurvy Pirates of Lubbock, and against better competition, too! Taylor Potts played like, well, a Texas Tech quarterback by throwing for 456 yards and seven (not a typo) touchdowns. However, through two games, the Red Raiders have still failed to crack the 100-yard rushing mark (total), picking up only 52 yards on the ground this week. My guess is that Mike Leach, he of the superior intellect and lacking a brain-to-mouth filter, isn't too worried about practicing that boring, simple handoff stuff.

For more: Double T Nation

Next opponent: Texas (Austin, Texas)

Missouri 27, Bowling Green 20: I had a lot of Mizzou fans around me on Saturday night, and they were sweating this one. It didn't take long to realize that, yes, Blaine Gabbert is human after all, although he's still a surpassingly good human quarterback. I wouldn't get too worked up about this being a close win, you survive games like this and move on.

For more: Rock M Nation

Next opponent: Furman (Columbia, Mo.)

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0: I can't really take anything from this one other than it really sucks to be the team that has to play Oklahoma the week after they lose its opening game of the season and its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback is injured.

For more: Crimson and Cream Machine

Next opponent: Tulsa (Norman, Okla.)

KU 34, UTEP 7: Once again, an easy win for KU without an especially explosive score. For picking up 576 yards, the 'beaks really didn't score a whole lot of points. On the bright side -- for KU fans -- the beaker defense was outstanding, allowing only 208 yards against a UTEP team that Phil Steele picked to win the wild-and-wooly Conference USA West Division. That included only four yards rushing (again, not a typo). Now granted, UTEP lost its starting running back from last year and lost at home to Buffalo last week, but that's still a stout effort.

For more: Rock Chalk Talk

Next opponent: Duke

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Week 2

TB — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:08:28 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

The Big 12 Roundtable is back, again hosted by Rock M Nation. Once again, BOTC brings you a three-part response to each question, so I'll stop wasting your time now.

A solid 10-2 showing for the Big 12 this weekend. Which of these wins was biggest for the Big 12 and why?

BracketCat: It has to be Oklahoma State beating Georgia. Even up until kickoff, people were still doubting OSU's capability to win that game. Even better, they did it with defense, as the offense had a subpar game across the board. In other words, we beat the SEC at its own game. That ought to shut the east coast media up for a while. Coupled with Oklahoma's loss (and accompanying lack of mental fortitude), it also elevates OSU up to the coveted No. 2 spot in the pecking order... for now.

Panjandrum: I've gotta go with Oklahoma State over Georgia. Yeah, the Bulldogs are down this year, but it's always good to get a win over the SEC on national television.

TB: Nationally, the biggest win was Oklahoma State over Georgia. It was a victory that at least quelled the tide of SEC superiority after last season's frustrations against the southerners. Oklahoma State looks like a legitimate contender for the Big 12 South right now with an improved defense.

In a more conference-specific manner, however, Missouri's win over Illinois was the biggest of the day. Most of the preseason discussion focused on whether Nebraska or KU would win the North, with Missouri an afterthought despite the facts that the Tigers have been better than either NU or KU over the last few years and that Nebraska lost just as much on offense as Mizzou did. While NU and KU looked solid against overmatched opponents, Mizzou looked solid against a team that was supposed to be knocking on the door of the top 25.

Click the jump for the rest...

Conversely, the Mountain West did its damage against Colorado and Oklahoma. What's more disconcerting -- a sleeper in Colorado coming unglued, or a power in Oklahoma getting knocked off?

BracketCat: Oklahoma losing, without a doubt. Colorado never was a sleeper, as anyone with half a brain who has bothered to watch Hawk's terrible coaching over the years could have told you. But even without Bradford and Gresham, OU should have had enough to win that game - no disrespect to BYU. They just collapsed emotionally, though, and it's been a familiar refrain for Big Game Bob of late: Kansas State, LSU, USC, TCU, Oregon, Boise State, West Virginia, Florida, BYU and the list goes on. One wonders at what point the Oklahoma fans, desperate for an eighth national title, start to get a little myopically impatient with the way his talented teams underachieve whenever they encounter a little adversity.

Panjandrum: I don't think Colorado losing is really a 'sleeper'. I haven't been high on CU at all, and I thought any and all hype they received was completely unjustified. It doesn't surprise me at all that a fundamentally sound team went into Boulder and won. I mean, for Christ's sakes, Ron Prince was 2-1 against Hawkins, and he should have been undefeated. If that doesn't speak volumes about how awful your program is, I don't know what does.

Oklahoma losing to BYU was kind of surprising, but again, it's time we start talking about the Mountain West as a BCS quality conference and its members as quality teams. BYU is legit, and this was a statement game for them. Oklahoma, as usual, came out flat in a big, non-conference game. At some point, folks are going to realize that anyone can get beat on any given day, and the hyperbole that surrounds programs like Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, etc. will hopefully dissolve over time. It's not like they lost to an FCS team, so I don't think it's disheartening to the conference at all.

TB: Definitely seeing a powerhouse like Oklahoma get knocked off. I'll admit to being in the group of airheads who thought that surely Colorado would get it turned around at some point, but you hate to lose a contender at the top of your conference a lot more than you hate to lose a possible sleeper.

Right now, the college football world is rotating around a shoulder that can't rotate itself. What does the Sam Bradford injury mean for the conference right now?

BracketCat: Nothing much. I had OU pegged for 2-4 losses anyway. You don't lose 4 of 5 veteran offensive linemen and just reload like nothing happened. This is Texas' year, as long as they can survive in Stillwater. McCoy's boys are the best chance for this conference to stop the Tim Tebow hype machine. That would have been the case anyway, but now with any little luck, the road got a little easier for the Longhorns. And I'm selfishly rooting for them in some ways, because Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are raiding Kansas for the best recruits right now. Anything that is bad for them is good for K-State. But when was the last time we lost a recruit to Texas? Vince Young, maybe? Exactly. Hook 'em!

Panjandrum: It means the Heisman race is now down to McCoy and Tebow. If anything, it could give a team like Oklahoma State some momentum going into the conference season that it could ride into the Big 12 title game, but it's not like the Big 12 is hurting for quality teams right now. I think OU was overrated as a Top 5 team, and without Bradford, they could come back to Earth a bit. It may be the opening that OSU has been looking for to help turn that corner.

TB: Seems to me that it means we're down one national title contender. I don't know if that leaves one or two, because I don't know if Oklahoma State is a national title contender or not yet. It may make it more difficult for the conference to have two BCS bowl game participants if Texas wins the conference and goes to the MNCG. Two BCS teams means a lot of money for the conference, and I trust OU's reputation to get them to a BCS bowl a lot more than OSU's reputation.

How, if at all, did your perception of your team change after week one, both for better and for worse?

BracketCat: It was pretty much what I expected to see. The defense's effort has improved, if not its talent level. Fundamentals are better than they ever were last season. We're going to miss Josh Freeman a LOT, and anyone who thought otherwise is an idiot. Probably the only major surprise was the two HORRIBLE special teams errors. That's atypical of a Snyder team; hell, it's atypical of a PRINCE team. Gotta get that crap fixed quickly or we will lose even more games than I already resigned myself to witnessing.

Panjandrum: Kansas State is better than we thought on the defensive side of the football, but they're much worse on the offensive side than we had hoped (or feared). It may be a one game aberration, but unless they come out strong against Louisiana next week, KSU could go from a 5-6 win team to a 3-4 win team.

TB: It didn't change much. That's probably what a 6-6 team looks like. I have faith that a Bill Snyder-coached team will improve throughout the year, and as I've noted, the performance wasn't as lackluster as it may appear to someone who only sees the final score. Still, we aren't a very good team this year.

Give us your offensive player of the week, defensive player of the week, and coaching move of the week, including justifications for your selection. You ARE eligible to vote for your own program.

BracketCat: Offensive Player of the Week: Blaine Gabbert
Holy crap, what a debut. Missouri is here to stay, folks.

Defensive Player of the Week: Tysyn Hartman
Maybe a biased pick, but who else had two interceptions last week? Hell, the entire starting defenses of Kansas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech couldn't even do that in laughers. And he should have had three...

Coaching Move of the Week: Mike Gundy's decision to lean on his defense
Gundy said after the game that he put less pressure on his offense to rack up its usual numbers because the defense was holding its own. Brilliant move. Now they know what they can do, and their confidence is higher than it already was. Plus, Young reintroduced himself to the conference as the evil wizard he is. OSU has a bright season ahead of it if it keeps doing the little things right.

Panjandrum: Offensive POW: Gabbert - How can he not be?

Defensive POW: Hartman - He should have had three picks and a TD. However, his two INT's were HUGE in KSU's win, so he gets it on the importance of his play.

Coaching move of the week: Dan Hawkins providing a blueprint on how to beat CU - This is kind of a joke, but the conference will benefit from all of the wins teams will rack up against CU this year after Hawkins clearly displayed complete ineptitude in practically all facets of the game.

TB: Offensive Player of the Week: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. It's probably the obvious pick, but it's warranted in my estimation. Missouri was predicted by many, including me, to take a big step back this year because they were breaking in a new QB. While I still imagine Gabbert will undergo some growing pains at some point this year, he and the Tigers served notice that they will be in the running for their third straight North title.

Defensive Player of the Week: Joe Pawelek, LB, Baylor: I really wanted to follow BracketCat's and Panjandrum's lead and pick K-State safety Tysyn Hartman here, but I can't vote against Pawelek. Baylor's senior linebacker had seven tackles, an interception, and a sack in Baylor's road win against Wake Forest. Hartman had two interceptions and six tackles against a less impressive opponent. I also considered Mizzou DB Carl Gettis (eight tackles, one forced fumble, one pass broken up).

Coaching Move of the Week: I noticed RPT called it the coaching "move" of the week, rather than the coaching job of the week. Because I didn't catch a lot of film of the Big 12 games, I'll have to defer to ESPN's Tim Griffin and nominate either Art Briles and Baylor for throwing the circus at Wake Forest, or Missouri defensive coordinator Dave Steckel's "scorpion" defense against Illinois. Unless, of course, you believe that new Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Bill Young intentionally permitted Georgia to march 80 yards for a touchdown on its first drive, only to stifle the Bulldogs the rest of the day. That would be a coaching move befitting an evil defensive genius.

Big 12 Power Poll! Rank the teams from 1-12. (Again, the simple criteria for this is power, i.e. who would beat who on a neutral field?)

BracketCat:

1. Texas - as solid as expected
2. Oklahoma State - impressive start to the season; now survive Houston
3. Missouri - could be BETTER than last year; has to be the favorite for the North now, hosting Nebraska and getting Kansas on a neutral field
4. Nebraska - good dismantling of a bowl-winning team; now do it against someone with a pulse
5. Kansas - showed us nothing against a nobody, but maintains the benefit of the doubt for now
6. Oklahoma - BYU is good, but not that good; without Bradford, this is a 7-5 team, and the defense still has MAJOR issues despite its talent level
7. Baylor - GREAT road win, considering Griffin did not have a great game; Baylor will be in a bowl, and if OU keeps sliding, the unthinkable could happen - the Bears could pass the Sooners in this power poll
8. Texas A&M - pretty impressive start, but New Mexico had a new coach and new systems; Aggies still have a lot to prove
9. Texas Tech - that was not a good performance, people; 40 rushing yards? seriously? against NORTH DAKOTA?
10. Kansas State - pretty much what I expected; just not enough pieces this year
11. Iowa State - meh
12. Colorado - holy God, Hawk is a terrible coach; still starting his son with the rag-noodle arm? making him throw 40 times a game? running the ball with FOUR different RBs so none of them gets in a rhythm? this guy ASTOUNDS me with his awful coaching...

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Missouri
4. Nebraska
5. Oklahoma
6. Baylor
7. Kansas
8. Texas Tech
9. Texas A&M
10. Kansas State
11. Iowa State
12. Colorado

TB:

1. Texas -- Hold on to the top spot because they looked really good against an overmatched opponent. Had they been merely ordinary against ULM, we may have had a new top dog.
2. Oklahoma State -- Lived up to the preseason hype against Georgia, but Mike Gundy had better get them grounded quickly. The Houston Cougars have enough offense to beat the Cowboys if they aren't taken seriously.
3. Oklahoma -- Probably bucking conventional wisdom here, but I'm not going to overreact to a neutral-site loss to a ranked MWC team when the Sooners' Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback was injured in the first half.
4. Missouri -- An impressive win over a far superior opponent to the ones Nebraska and KU played vaults the Tigers to the top of the North.
5. Nebraska -- A slow start against FAU gave way to a big third quarter and an easy win for the Huskers. Zac Lee was solid in his first start at QB.
6. KU -- Played without star receiver Dez Briscoe, but rode a strong ground game to a ho-hum win over a putrid FCS opponent. They have an interesting game this week, traveling to El Paso to match up with a UTEP team that lost to Buffalo in its opener.
7. Baylor -- The Bears picked up a good road win against Wake Forest, despite Robert Griffin having a sub-par game.
8. Texas A&M -- Maybe giving the Aggies too much credit for an easy win over a team with entirely new coaches that wasn't all that great last year. Still, A&M has clearly improved from a year ago, when it couldn't even beat an FCS school at home.
9. Texas Tech -- Yeah, Taylor Potts passed for 400+ yards, but the Red Raiders had no running game to speak of against a Division II team.
10. K-State -- Possibly a bit of a homer pick, but the Cats hang on to the No. 10 position in my power poll by a thread. It's a combination of what I saw in person at the UMass game and not being overly impressed by Iowa State's performance against NDSU.
11. Iowa State -- Offense looked pretty good against NDSU, although it didn't result in a ton of points. Defense is going to need to improve after allowing more than five yards per rush to an FCS school.
12. Colorado -- When you lose at home, to a team that was picked to finish in the middle of the MWC pack, and you got pretty much dominated in every phase of the game, you end up here. Still, I make those comments advisedly, knowing full well that K-State could just as well be placed right here.

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

UPDATE: Depth Chart updated after news of Blaine Dalton's dismissal.

The season is barely over a week away, and it is impossible not to be intrigued and excited by the completely unexpected nature of 2009. We think we know what to expect from Blaine Gabbert, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones, Andrew Gachkar, Kenji Jackson, Kevin Rutland, the lawfirm of Smith, Smith, and Coulter, and all the other guys who will be playing new roles this season, but we don't really know.

But there's an added variable of interest, at least for me, when it comes to the 2009 season: the 2010 season. We want to win another North title--as I was saying this time last year, if Mizzou wins the North in 2009, it's over ("it" being competition in the North division) for a while, thanks for playing, everybody go home. We want to win the division, make a nice bowl, prove that Mizzou is to "reload, not rebuild" stage, et cetera. But really, the single most prevalent, overriding goal of 2009 is simply to not mess up 2010 and beyond. In a major rebuilding/reloading season, Oklahoma went 7-5 in 2005, which would be like about 4-8 for Missouri, and then they won three straight Big 12 titles. It didn't matter whether OU went 5-6 or 7-5 or 10-2 that season--what mattered was that, even with the proceeding Rhett Bomar drama, they got experience, stuck together, and improved as the season progressed, and they were ready to go on a major winning streak when 2006 came around.

With that in mind, let's take a look at 2010 and 2011, and what could be in store if 2009 doesn't, in one way or another (catastrophic injuries, unexpected defection, damaged chemistry, etc.), derail the gameplan. For this exercise, we will more or less assume that the depth charts I've been projecting over the last couple of weeks come true, and we will use that assumption for the projected 2010 and 2011 depth charts.

2010

Boldface = returning (projected) starter
Asterisk = proj. number of years having started
x = no current scholarship player or known walk-on to fill the position

I'm intentionally leaving off any currently-committed recruits because Missouri has proven time and again that, while they'll almost certainly play some true freshmen, trying to figure out which ones ahead of time is a fool's game. A 2-star is almost as likely to come in and earn PT as a 4-star.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr.)* Jimmy Costello (Jr.) Ashton Glaser (RSFr.)	DE	Aldon Smith (So.)* Brad Madison (So.) Brayden Burnett (RSFr.)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr.)** De'Vion Moore (Jr.) Kendial Lawrence (So.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr.)* Jimmy Burge (So.) George White (So.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr.) T.J. Moe (So.) Kerwin Stricker (RSFr.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr.) Marvin Foster (RSFr.) Chris Earnhardt (Jr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (So.) Rolandis Woodland (So.) Jaleel Clark (RSFr.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr.)* Michael Sam (So./RSFr.) Marcus Malbrough (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr.)* Gahn McGaffie (So.) Brandon Gerau (Jr.)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr.)* Zaviar Gooden (So.) x
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr.)* Michael Egnew (Jr.) Alex Sanders (RSFr.)	MLB	Luke Lambert (Sr.)** Donovan Bonner (So.) Andrew Wilson (RSFr.)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr.)** Justin Britt (So./RSFr.) Kirk Lakebrink (Sr.)	WLB	Will Ebner (Jr.) Josh Tatum (Jr.) Tyler Crane (Jr.)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr.)* Jayson Palmgren (Jr.) Mike Prince (Sr.)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr.)*** Trey Hobson (Jr.) Kip Edwards (So.)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr.)** Travis Ruth (So.) x	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr.)* Robert Steeples (So.) Munir Prince (Sr.)
RG	J.T. Beasley (Jr.) Daniel Jenkins (So.) Mark Hill (RSFr.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Jr.)** Jarrell Harrison (Sr.) Tavon Bolden (RSFr.)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr.)* Jack Meiners (So.) Chris Freeman (RSFr.)	SS	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Matt White (RSFr.) Randy Ponder (RSFr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr.)* Trey Barrow (So.)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr.) Grant Ressel (Jr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (So.)* Carl Gettis (Sr.)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr.)* Kendial Lawrence (So.)

This year, we enter the season with a combined seven seasons of starting experience on offense and six on defense. Next year, it looks like about 11 on offense and 13 on defense.

Notes about the depth chart:

It bears mentioning that there's no way in hell somebody doesn't transfer or quit (UPDATE: or get thrown off the team for driving while intoxicated...on campus, ahem) between now and 12 months from now. Look at some of the younger guys on the third-string, trapped behind guys just as young or younger (i.e. look at the defensive line), if you want to get some pretty good red flags in that regard.
There will also be some position changes, offense-to-defense switches, etc. I have my own ideas about who or what those changes will be, but I tried to stay as close as possible to current positions (OL and LB aside). I wanted to make as few assumptions as possible here.
THREE senior scholarship players on the offensive three-deep, and only seven on defense. This team will still be ridiculously young NEXT year.
Missouri currently has commitments from four defensive backs (five if Jimmie Hunt switches to defense), so it will be quite interesting to see how many (if any) are worked into the rotation, being that DB is about the only senior-dominated unit for 2010. I mean, that's a pretty stout rotation right there. I guess there's a potential slot available at SS, but otherwise a true freshman would have to come in and truly dominated to pass some of those experienced guys.
I can't tell you how curious I am to see L'Damian Washington and T.J. Moe in action this year (I'm just going to assume that neither redshirt). If one or both can play to at least the level that Jared Perry and Danario Alexander did as true freshmen, then this WR corps should be quite stout with Kemp and Jackson as the veterans, Washington/Moe as the third starter, and a host of other guys who will get a shot to show potential this year.
Good god, how good is the offensive line going to be in 2010 (and 2011)??

Now the schedule:

Date	Team	Comments
9/4	vs Illinois	No Juice or (probably) Benn, but...Eddie McGee!!!1!!! Mizzou will probably be favored in this one.
9/11	McNeese State	Yawn.
9/18	?	I'm curious who we aim for with this spot. Clearly it will be a home game, since it's Mizzou's turn to "host" Kansas at Arrowhead, and you have to figure it will be a non-BCS team as well (duh), but no idea whether we're aiming for a Nevada type or an Idaho type.
9/25	Miami-OH	They really haven't been very good for since Big Ben left.
10/9	Colorado	As down as I am about CU in 2009, they should be pretty experienced and potentially solid in the trenches next year. It looks like they'll still have Cody Hawkins at QB, of course, but they should be decent.
10/16	at Texas A&M	Never fun going to College Station, but this one's winnable.
10/23	Oklahoma	As Lou Brown would say, one of these days we're gonna figure out how to beat those guys.
10/30	at Nebraska	The 2009 NU offense will dictate what I think about the 2010 Huskers. No idea right now, but a trip to Lincoln is a trip to Lincoln.
11/6	at Texas Tech	Are you noticing something about the 2010 schedule yet? Only one game in Columbia after 10/23. Yikes.
11/13	Kansas State	Until Bill Snyder proves something the second time around, this is a win.
11/20	at Iowa State	Until Paul Rhoads proves something, anything at all, this is a win.
11/27	vs Kansas	Kansas loses Reesing, Meier, Briscoe (probably), Sharp, Stuckey, Thornton...pretty much every player you can name, they will be gone in 2010. KU has recruited well and looks to be in a "Mizzou 2009" situation next year (hoping to prove they reload instead of rebuild), but Mizzou will definitely have the experienced advantage in this one.

Knowing what we know, it's safe to assume that, even if Missouri wins the North in 2009, people will be picking Nebraska in 2010 (with Colorado as the sleeper), so we should just prepare for it now! Mizzou will clearly have a major role to play in the 2010 race, but a) a million things, good or bad, could happen between now and then, and b) the "almost everything on the road" home stretch is a little intimidating, even if Mizzou will potentially be favored in at least three of the five road trips.

2011

Clearly it's silly to get too worked up, one way or the other, about something that will begin 24 months into the future. But if people stay healthy and develop like Mizzou tends to develop players, then WOW is this team loaded, especially on an offensive line that will have at least three multi-year starters and return four starters overall, and on a defensive line that will be stacked and experienced...and this is without even considering Sheldon Richardson's presence.

Of course, the key to 2011 expectations will be Blaine Gabbert. At 6'5, 240, with a cannon attached to his right arm, he is exactly what pro scouts look for in a quarterback, and if he has any success at all in 2009 and 2010, people will be assuming he's going pro. If he comes back like Colt McCoy, or if he leaves like Josh Freeman, it will have a tremendous impact on expectations. There will be plenty of options if he leaves--~~Blaine Dalton,~~ maybe 2010 commit James Franklin, or of course Jimmy Costello or Ashton Glaser--but obviously the overall outlook will be clouded in part by Gabbert's decision*.

* The more I talk about this, the more I feel like I'm unleashing a monster jinx regarding Gabbert's health, so I'm goign to shut up about it now.

Pos.	Player	Pos	Player
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Sr.)** Jimmy Costello (Sr.) Ashton Glaser (So.)	DE	Aldon Smith (Jr.)** Brad Madison (Jr.) Brayden Burnett (So.)
RB	De'Vion Moore (Sr.) Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) Gilbert Moye (Sr.)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Sr.)** Jimmy Burge (Jr.) George White (Jr.)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Sr.)* T.J. Moe (Jr.) Kerwin Stricker (So.)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Sr.)* Marvin Foster (So.) Chris Earnhardt (Sr.)
WR	L'Damian Washington (Jr.)* Rolandis Woodland (Jr.) Jaleel Clark (So.)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Sr.)** Michael Sam (Jr./So.) Adam Burton (So.)
WR	Wes Kemp (Sr.)** Gahn McGaffie (Jr.) Brandon Gerau (Sr.)	SLB	Zaviar Gooden (Jr.) x x
TE	Andrew Jones (Sr.)** Michael Egnew (Sr.) Alex Sanders (So.)	MLB	Donovan Bonner (Jr.) Andrew Wilson (So.) x
LT	Elvis Fisher (Sr.)*** Justin Britt (Jr./So.) x	WLB	Will Ebner (Sr.)* Josh Tatum (Sr.) x
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Sr.)** Jayson Palmgren (Sr.) x	CB	Trey Hobson (Sr.) Kip Edwards (Jr.) x
C	Travis Ruth (Jr.) x x	CB	Robert Steeples (Jr.) x x
RG	J.T. Beasley (Sr.)* Daniel Jenkins (Jr.) Mark Hill (So.)	FS	Kenji Jackson (Sr.)*** Tavon Bolden (So.) x
RT	Dan Hoch (Sr.)** Jack Meiners (Jr.) Chris Freeman (So.)	SS	Matt White (So.) Randy Ponder (So.) Tony Randolph (Sr.)

K	Grant Ressel (Sr.)** Trey Barrow (Jr.)	P	Matt Grabner (Sr.)* Grant Ressel (Sr.)
PR	T.J. Moe (Jr.)* x	KR	Kendial Lawrence (Jr.) x

Sixteen seasons of starting experience on offense, 12 on defense. Solid experience everywhere, but just ridiculous experience in the trenches. Gabbert or no Gabbert, there's reason to be optimistic about the future just because of that.
As mentioned earlier, the secondary is really the only unit looking at taking a decent-sized hit this season. Same with linebackers, really, but we're all so excited about guys like Ebner, Bonner, Gooden, etc., that it seems like at least a bit less of a concern.

Date	Team	Comments
9/3	?	We can just assume that the three ?'s on the schedule will likely be filled with the usual: a BCS conference team, a decent non-BCS team, and a craptastic non-BCS team. Who those are is obviously up in the air, though I'll say this: I think ESPN and other networks will start trying harder and harder to manufacture good non-conference matchups by offering to pay both participants a decent amount of money. At some point, that will become a cost-effective thing to do, and I think you'll start seeing more matchups coming about in that way. No idea who Missouri might get paired with in such a scenario, but it might do us well to assume that it's possible to be anybody between Oregon and Miami, not just a regional matchup like Arkansas or Iowa.
9/10	?
9/17	?
9/24	Western Illinois	Yawn.
10/1	at Colorado	At the very least, CU should have a very good offensive line in 2011, whether Dan Hawkins is still there or not.
10/15	Texas A&M	All the sophomores currently on their two-deep will be seniors, so they could be pretty decent, whether Mike Sherman is still there or not (and with his ridiculously lengthy contract, he probably will be).
10/22	at Oklahoma	I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Missouri will not be favored in this one.
10/29	Nebraska	2011 is the anti-2010. Three of five down the stretch are at home, and they don't give up the home game against Kansas. Obviously we have no idea about any of the final five teams two years out, but it's certainly possible that Mizzou will be favored in all five, or at least four of them.
11/5	Texas Tech
11/12	at Kansas State
11/19	Iowa State
11/26	vs Kansas

Summary

The point of this exercise was simply to hammer home the point that Missouri will not only be playing for 2009 this year, but 2010 and 2011 as well. If recruiting continues to improve, or if a spate of injuries completely changes the outlook of the program, then these depth charts are about as far from realistic as possible, but the take-home point is simply this: if Missouri does disappoint in 2009, and clearly it's possible, it really will not affect the long-term prognosis of the program as long as the chemistry stays tight, the players stay healthy, and the players continue to improve. I really want Mizzou to shut everybody up and win another North title (and hey, throw in 10 wins for good measure), but Mizzou will likely survive long-term no matter what happens in 2009, and that's a pretty exciting thought to fall back on if things don't go as planned over the next four months.

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

TB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Sorry this is really late from BOTC. I was out of town all last week and wasn't checking my email, so this got ignored. Anyway, CBS Sports and SB Nation's Colorado blog, The Ralphie Report, are this official conference preview. Here is BOTC's "outsider's" conference preview, intended to be a lot like something you'd find in a magazine.

Offense (Six Returning Starters)

Everything begins at the quarterback position, and K-State has a big hole to fill there after Josh Freeman left to become a first-round NFL draft pick. The favorite to replace him is junior Carson Coffman, and if you've followed Big 12 football recently, yes, he is the brother of former Missouri tight end Chase Coffman. Coffman was the starting QB for the first-team squad in the spring game, and played very well in completing 25 of 36 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, that was against the second-string defense, but it was a much more impressive performance than we had seen in prior spring games. All signs still point to Coffman being the starter in the first game against UMass, as it doesn't appear Grant Gregory, Collin Klein, or Joseph Kassanavoid have done anything to unseat the frontrunner.

Running back is a mystery position for the Cats this season, as it was one of many areas on the roster about which former coach Ron Prince apparently had no understanding when it came to roster management. Last year's leading rusher, Lamark Brown, is moving to wide receiver. Logan Dold, the second-leading rusher among running backs, moved to safety. The next running back, Keithen Valentine, has had two good spring games in a row, and almost nothing to show for it during the regular season. Last season, Valentine rushed for 129 yards total.

Snyder announced that heralded recruit Daniel Thomas will likely start the season at running back, which probably makes him the favorite to be the starter against UMass. Thomas is a dynamic athlete who also has the size -- 6'2", 227 lbs. -- to be among the biggest running backs we've had in a while.

Whatever production K-State is going to get from its wide receivers, it had better get it this season. The squad's best receivers are almost all seniors, which will leave a big hole in 2010. However, this group looks like one of the team's strengths, led by 2008's Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. Banks is the undersized receiver with blazing speed, and the best home-run threat K-State has had since Darren Sproles started at running back.

Along with Banks, senior Attrail Snipes and junior Lamark Brown could add some depth and firepower at this position. Snipes didn't get much of a chance to play wide receiver last year, but he was a highly touted junior college recruit who could make an impact. As already mentioned, Brown has moved back to wide receiver after playing running back last season. He's another gifted athlete who could give opposing defenses headaches if he picks up the position quickly.

Tight end should be a position at which K-State is fairly solid this season. Senior Jeron Mastrud returns after a 2008 season in which he caught 38 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Solid numbers for a tight end, and he's that reliable target you want a new quarterback to have. The backups at tight end are a bit of a question mark, with newcomers Prizell Brown (junior college transfer) and Travis Tannahill (freshman) being the most likely candidates to spell Mastrud.

One thing you can say about K-State's offensive line is that it has a lot of players with returning starts. Given that Prince liked to rotate players around, nobody can be absolutely sure who will start where and whether the prior experience will be much help, but at least this unit isn't trying to break in a bunch of true freshman and transfers. Nick Stringer anchors the line at left tackle, bringing 23 starts into 2009. Completing Coffman's blind-side protection on the left side will probably be Zach Kendall, who has five starts to his credit.

Wade Weibert and Trevor Viers will vie for the starting spot at center. Viers has seven starts to his credit, but Weibert was a top-50 junior college recruit who started with the first team during the spring game.

On the right side, Clyde Aufner probably gets the nod at right tackle, and Colten Freeze probably starts at guard. Aufner saw action in three games last year as a redshirt freshman, while Freeze had three starts last season as a redshirt freshman. Expect to see a lot of competition for these positions, with sophomore Kaleb Drinkgern and junior Kenny Mayfield pushing for playing time.

Defense (Eight Returning Starters)

To say that K-State's 2008 defense was putrid would be kind. Out of 119 FBS teams, K-State ranked 117 in total defense. So yeah, things are bad. But with a strong new coaching staff and several talented players returning, improvement is likely on this side of the ball in 2009. The real question is how much improvement will be made, and whether it will be enough to have a significant effect on the season.

Before Brandon Harold's injury in preseason practice, the defensive line looked to be the strength of the team. Harold was a freshman all-america last season, registering 45 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss last season, but we don't know how soon he'll return after he dinged up his knee in practice. Jeffrey Fitzgerald is likely to start at defensive tackle, although an offseason arrest on suspicion of DUI may temporarily derail those plans. Fitzgerald is a transfer from Virginia, and with the Cavaliers 137 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in 25 starts.

Other probable starters on the defensive line are Daniel Calvin at DT and Eric Childs at DE. Childs was honorable mention all-conference last season as a junior while making 11 starts and recording 52 tackles. Calvin is a big body in the middle at 6'3" and 310 lbs., but didn't have the type of season K-State was hoping for last season. Look for newcomer Kadero Terrell, a hybrid defensive end/linebacker to see some time at DE this season, too, if the spring game was any indication.

Linebacker looks to be one of K-State's weaker units this season after losing three players who had multiple starts last season. However, the defense is moving to a 4-2-5 alignment in an attempt to combat the Big 12's prolific spread offenses, so fewer linebackers will be required. One of the positions will be occupied by sophomore Alex Hrebec, who registered 68 tackles in only six starts last season. The other linebacker spot will be filled either by John Houlik or Ulla Pomele. Pomele had the better season last year and would be the choice of most K-State fans at this position.

In the secondary, it begins with cornerback Joshua Moore. In 2006, Moore was a freshman all-america before being injured late in the season. He returned to action in 2008 after redshirting the 2007 season as a result of apparent academic issues. Moore was one of the few bright spots on last season's atrocious defense, tallying 76 tackles, three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. The starter at the other cornerback position is still uncertain. Senior Billy McClellan is probably the leading candidate seeing action in 10 games last season.

The safeties will be expected to play a bigger role in Vic Koenning's and Chris Cosh's 4-2-5 scheme. Courtney Herndon will likely start at one of the safety positions after starting 10 games and recording 61 tackles last season. Chris Carney also had a solid season last year, with 53 tackles and five passes broken up in only four starts.

Defensive back will be a position to keep an eye on at K-State this season. Two players who have switched position, Logan Dold and Tysyn Hartman, could see action at DB this season. Also, newcomer Emmanuel Lamur is one of the more intriguing additions to the team. Lamur is a big defensive back at 6'4" and 214 lbs., and the coaches seem to be pretty high on him.

Special Teams

One of the hallmarks of a Bill Snyder-coached team is solid special teams play. Coincidentally, that was about the only thing Ron Prince's teams did consistently well. This season, K-State's special teams should be solid again. In all likelihood, Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles will continue to return kickoffs, and Banks averaged 27.7 yards per return in that duty last season. It's not clear right now who will return punts for K-State after last year's punt returner, Deon Murphy, left the team.

One position where K-State should see significant improvement this season is punter. Last season, with George Pierson and D.J. Fulhage splitting time, punting was a weakness, as the Cats finished 10th in the Big 12 in net punting. Panjandrum attended the spring game and was very impressed with newcomer Ryan Doerr, who is the likely starter this season.

At kicker, junior Josh Cherry is the likely starter despite seeing very limited action behind Brooks Rossman last season. Doerr is also listed as a kicker and was pretty solid at that position in high school, so it's possible Doerr could pull double duty.

Key Losses

Offense: Josh Freeman (QB), Deon Murphy (WR), Ernie Pierce (WR)

Defense: Ian Campbell (DE), Ray Cheatham (S), Reggie Walker (LB), Blair Irvin (S)

Special Teams: Brooks Rossman (K), Deon Murphy (PR)

Season Forecast

K-State's non-conference slate features two FCS teams, meaning the Wildcats will have to win seven games to reach bowl eligibility this season. While that's not impossible given the upgrade at every position on the coaching staff, it could be a bridge too far for a team that's 10-14 the last two seasons. In another interesting twist, K-State plays twelve games in twelve consecutive weeks, so it remains to be seen whether the lack of a bye week will hamper this team late in the season.

The Wildcats open up with a home game against UMass, dubbed by the athletic department as the "K-State Family Reunion" because it's Bill Snyder's first game back. Though Snyder's clubs are notoriously slow starters, the Wildcats should be able to handle an FCS team in the home opener. The next week, in a strange twist of scheduling, K-State travels to Lafayette, La., to play the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Last season, UL nearly upset the Cats in Manhattan. The Cajuns lost their quarterback and running back to graduation, however, and as such probably won't have quite enough firepower for a K-State team that should be improved on defense under Koenning and Cosh.

On September 19th, Snyder will take his club to Pasadena, Calif., to meet up with an old nemesis from the Big 8 (and early Big 12) days in Rick Neuheisel. Of course, Neuheisel coaches UCLA now, not Colorado, and last season's UCLA team was, well, pretty bad. The combined record of the teams UCLA defeated was 12-37. Despite that, the smart money would be to bet on UCLA in this game. Snyder's teams usually do not play well in September, and that will probably be amplified this season because it's Snyder's first year on the job.

After two weeks on the road, K-State then returns home for another FCS opponent, Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles were 3-9 last season and shouldn't pose a threat to K-State, especially in Manhattan.

K-State opens Big 12 play with a neutral-site game against Iowa State at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, Paul Rhoads, after two atrocious seasons under Gene Chizik. No game is a given for K-State this season, but last year's Wildcats defeated Iowa State in the last game of Prince's lame-duck tenure and, on a neutral field, should be able to topple the Cyclones again. After that, the going gets significantly more difficult, as K-State travels to Lubbock, Texas, to take on Captain Leach. Despite losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders are one of those programs that is more likely to reload than rebuild, and games in Lubbock are usually a nightmare for opposing teams.

A home date with Texas A&M awaits after K-State returns from the South Plains. In Snyder's first tenure, matchups with A&M were usually nightmares, but these aren't your older cousin's Aggies. Last season, K-State hammered A&M in College Station, and while the Aggies should be a little better this season, signs of significant improvement are absent. With K-State still breaking in a new system, this game will probably be a little closer than last season's meeting, but Snyder & Co. should still be able to pick up the win.

Another home date follows as Colorado comes to town the next week. The Buffs were one of the few programs -- Texas being the other -- that Prince's teams didn't completely suck against. Ol' Prince went 2-1 against Dan Hawkins in three tries, with the lone defeat being a one-point decision in Boulder last year. Colorado is the wildcard of the North, as most have expected them to be a lot better the last couple seasons than they actually were, and this is a game whose prediction could change based on how Colorado plays. Given that it's later in the season and the fact that I now live in the "Show-Me" state, I'm going to wait on Colorado to prove itself and call this a narrow win for K-State.

So if you're keeping score at home, my prognostications now have the Cats at 6-2. However, the schedule turns disastrous at this point, with the following games looming: @ Oklahoma, KU, Missouri, @ Nebraska. Obviously, the Oklahoma game can be written off as a loss at this point. Based on preseason pure roster talent, KU and Missouri are also likely losses for K-State, even at home. Nebraska is also among the favorites to win the North, so a game in Lincoln does not bode well for K-State to close the season. The season will turn on whether Snyder can find a win in this murderous finish. On the bright side, Snyder's clubs typically play their best ball in November, going 25-4 in November home games since 1990 (H/T, Phil Steele). If KU gets crushed by its South Division gauntlet and drops a surprise game against Colorado or Nebraska, the Cats may have a chance to pick up a win in a home rivalry game. Similarly, if Mizzou ends up rebuilding rather than reloading, that's a game the Cats could win if things are going well.

Predicted Order of Finish

Big 12 North

Nebraska

Missouri

K-State

Colorado

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

SB Nation - Josh Freeman

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

KEY STATS

Analysis

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Can The Wildcats Handle OU’s Defensive Front? A Conversation With Bring On The Cats

Q & A with Bring On The Cats

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Postgame Reaction: K-State vs. Louisiana

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Week 2

Mizzou 2009, Part Fourteen: 2010 and Beyond

2010

2011

Summary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State