SB Nation - Joshua Moore

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Nebraska

BracketCat — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5 | 4-3) VS. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3 | 4-2)

The Big 12 North Championship
Nebraska Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Neb.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 - 6:45 PM CST

ESPN

After 11 weeks of strife and struggle, it comes down to this: One game separates us from either glory or disappointment.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Corn Nation.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (89 of 144, 970 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (51 catches, 657 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (228 carries, 1,166 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Josh Cherry (11 of 17 FG made)

Passing
Zac Lee (136 of 227, 1,692 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Niles Paul (29 catches, 567 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Roy Helu Jr. (167 carries, 962 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Ndamukong Suh (56 tackles, 13 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (31 | -8) > NU (57)

Passing Offense
NU (82) > K-State (105 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (75 | +3) > NU (77)

Scoring Offense
NU (68) > K-State (75 | -6)

Rushing Defense
NU (11) > K-State (23 | -3)

Pass Efficiency Defense
NU (3) > K-State (75 | -15)

Total Defense
NU (10) > K-State (47 | -4)

Scoring Defense
NU (3) > K-State (59 | -14)

Net Punting
K-State (73 | +4) > NU (100)

Punt Returns
NU (40) > K-State (47 | -3)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (6 | -2) > NU (44)

Turnover Margin
K-State (19 | -13) > NU (59)

Pass Defense
NU (26) > K-State (90 | -7)

Passing Efficiency
NU (68) > K-State (78 | -2)

Analysis

There's no shading the fact that the numbers really don't favor us in this matchup — especially in light of the Wildcats' poor performance last Saturday.

To secure a win, K-State will have to press its advantage in a few key areas: rushing offense (against the No. 3 rushing defense in the country, though), total offense (our record is pretty clear — when we don't score 20, we don't win, with KU being the rare exception), net punting (don't be afraid to play the field-position game), kickoff returns (we've got to spring Brandon Banks loose at least once, because against that defense, good field position will be critical to scoring points), and turnover margin (simply put, we cannot turn it over like we did last week — duh).

So as I see it, the recipe for victory is no turnovers, finding a way to score by opening up the playbook and creating plays on special teams. Oh, yeah, did I mention don't turn it over?

I'm going to go ahead and join the rest of the nation in predicting a comfortable Nebraska win, in order to reclaim some of that reverse-jinx magic I had earlier in the season. We'll need all the help we can get, unfortunately.

At this point, though, I really don't care if we win or lose. Either way, it has been a successful season. I just want to see this team leave nothing on the field. This could be the end of their season — I want to see them play like it. And if Nebraska is to win, I want them to know they were in a dogfight first.

Prediction: Nebraska 21, Kansas State 8 (that's a safety and two field goals, BTW)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

The weekend kicked off in weird fashion with a turnover-plagued and mistake-filled exhibition of crap last night on ESPN, as Oklahoma State disinterestedly survived Colorado 31-28 at home.

Look for more of the same this weekend, as ours is the only game of real consequence.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech are playing for bowl position, and I'm not sure that will be enough for the normally mighty Sooners to avoid being upset in a city they have lost in before.

Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas both figure to be ho-hum wins by probably the most talented teams in their respective divisions.

That leaves Baylor at Texas A&M, the battle for the Big 12 South basement. Oh, yeah, give me some of that.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 20, Sooners 19

Iowa State at Missouri
Tigers 31, Cyclones 22

Baylor at Texas A&M
Aggies 31, Bears 27

Kansas at #3 Texas (ABC)
Longhorns 29, Jayhawks 6

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Nebraska vs. Kansas State - Why The Huskers Will Win

Jon Johnston — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:09:44 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Expect greatness to shine through Suh as he plays his last home game in front of Nebraska's sell-out crowd.

Browse more photos »

- Strength vs Strength

Kansas State's primary offensive strength in their running game. They lead the nation in time of possession and they're accustomed to slugging it out, sustaining drives and maintaining ball possession. 25 of their 42 scoring drives this season have gone for over 50 yards, and 12 of those consisted of ten or more plays.

Running back Daniel Thomas is of the big bruiser variety, at 6'2", 227 pounds. He's complemented by Keithen Valentine who has more speed and moves than Thomas, but at 5'8" and 193 pounds, doesn't have his size. Bill Snyder will pound Thomas at the Husker defense repeatedly, hoping that something will break. Thomas has had five 100-yard games this season, his high of 185 yards coming against in-state rival Kansas when he averaged 7.71 yards per carry. Thomas is a receiving threat as well, with 21 receptions for 206 yards.

Nebraska's defense is third in the nation against the run with All-America candidate Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick stuffing the middle. The Wildcats should find themselves unable to sustain long drives without striking some offensive balance. Quarterback Grant Gregory is not a dual-threat type guy, but he is elusive and can scramble well enough to buy time when passing. At least that's been the case against other teams. Gregory will find himself in a different situation running from the speed that is the Husker defensive line.

Kansas State will find their offensive strength negated by the Blackshirt defense. They'll play conservative, preferring to keep the score low, stay in the game and hope that the Huskers make mistakes that give them a short field. Even then, the Wildcats will have to rely on their....

- Play Maker

The Wildcats primary playmaker is 5' 7", 150 pound Brandon Banks. Banks is very similar to Darren Sproles who's in his fifth year in the NFL, and at 5' 6" is the shortest player in the league. Banks has Sproles primary super power - amazing speed. Banks leads the NCAA with four touchdowns in kick returning. Adi Kunalic should negate at least some of Banks' returns with touchbacks, although his kicks might be affected by the wind normally prevalent at this time of year.

Kansas State will be dependent upon a big play from Banks to win this game. He is the only true game-breaking weapon the Wildcats have. He is the Wildcats leading receiver with 51 receptions for 657 yards and one touchdown, and they will run reverses with him to get him to the edge of the field. If Husker special teams can cover returnable kicks and keep Banks in front of them, the Wildcats will find themselves in serious trouble. Especially if they don't get a.....

- Fast Start

The recipe for disaster for KSU includes having to play from being behind by two scores because that situation doesn't play to their basic strengths (see sustained drives, above). Most teams will defer the kickoff to the second half, but don't expect that to be the case with Bill Snyder if there is a strong wind Saturday night. He'll want to go into the wind and see if Banks can return one of Kunalic's kicks early in the game.
Bill Snyder made an excellent hire in Assistant Head Coach and Co-Defensive Coordinator Vic Koenning. Koenning came from Clemson after they chose Dabo Swinney as head coach. Koenning's Clemson defenses finished in the top 25 in several defensive categories in each of his four years with the Tigers. Koenning will have his defense stacking against the run, hoping to minimize Nebraska's first down plays, thus forcing them into throwing on third down. That will increase the chances for the Wildcats to pick up a turnover or two. However, Koenning's efforts should go to naught as the Huskers finally have....

- An Offense Found

The Wildcats' 2008 defense was hideous, comparable to the 2007 Husker defense in Bill Callahan's final year as head coach. They've made a great leap forward this season under Koenning, but are still having problems with pass defense. The Wildcats three top tacklers are in the secondary with free safety Emmanuel Lamur leading the way with 61 tackles. Lamur is an all-around talent, blocking two kicks this season, including one against Iowa State with :32 left to give the Wildcats a one-point win. Cornerback Joshua Moore is the second leading tackler with 57 total tackles.

If KSU has a defensive star in the making, it's in safety Tysyn Hartman, who's third in total tackles, has four interceptions, a forced fumble, and six pass breakups. Hartman is the Wildcats second punt returner behind Banks with a 13.1 yard average.

The Kansas game saw a Husker offense finally come together with big plays from Zac Lee, Roy Helu and Niles Paul. Expect the same type of game plan this week, with the Huskers seeking to establish a strong running game early then loosen up the defense with play-action passes to Niles Paul, Mike McNeill or one of the other Husker tight ends. The key will be consistency, some of the same things I talked about earlier this season - minimizing negative plays, protecting the ball and sustaining drives by picking up short third down situations. The offensive line should be able to break Helu into the second level, at which case it'll be a great night for the Husker offense.

If the Huskers can minimize turnovers, pick up third downs, and get a lead, they should keep it because of it'll be.....

- An Emotional Night With Both Teams Playing For High Stakes

The Big 12 North title is on the line for both teams. A bowl trip is on the line for Kansas State as they played two FCS opponents earlier in the season and can count only one towards bowl eligibility. All of the aforementioned will be trumped by the fact that it's Senior Night at Nebraska and you know that the Huskers will be pumped high with emotion.
The emotion of this game will keep the Huskers from falling into the same trap that nearly cost Oklahoma a game against the Wildcats. The Sooners got off to a 28-6 lead in the first half, then relaxed as KSU scored 17 unanswered points. The Sooners looked to put Kansas State away, taking a 35-23 lead in the fourth quarter, but KSU answered when Banks returned a touchdown to cut the Sooner lead to 35-30. The Sooners won, 42-30, but the Wildcats didn't quit and make Oklahoma earn their victory.

Expect none of that Saturday night. There will be no let up in the Blackshirts. Expect Crick and Suh to dominate the Wildcat offensive line. Expect the Huskers to take a healthy lead and hold it. Expect Nebraska to win the Big 12 North.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Missouri

BracketCat — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:30:13 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-4 | 4-2) VS. Missouri Tigers (5-4 | 1-4)

Senior Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock M Nation — unofficial second home of the temporarily suspended Unholy Alliance.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (68 of 114, 731 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (43 catches, 529 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (205 carries, 1,087 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (51 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 2 FR)

Passing
Blaine Gabbert (181 of 314, 2,364 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Danario Alexander (71 catches, 1,038 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Derrick Washington (140 carries, 562 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Sean Weatherspoon (84 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (23 | +9) > MU (102)

Passing Offense
MU (21) > K-State (106 | -4)

Total Offense
MU (56) > K-State (78 | -3)

Scoring Offense
MU (57) > K-State (69 | -11)

Rushing Defense
MU (17) > K-State (20 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (60 | +3) > MU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (43) > MU (45)

Scoring Defense
K-State (45 | +14) > MU (63)

Net Punting
MU (7) > K-State (77 | +10)

Punt Returns
K-State (44 | -1) > MU (49)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > MU (103)

Turnover Margin
K-State (6 | +8) > MU (69)

Pass Defense
K-State (83 | -2) > MU (89)

Passing Efficiency
MU (49) > K-State (76 | -6)

Analysis

Second verse, same as the first. If you covered up the numbers and just listed them as "Team A" and "Team B," you would see very little statistical difference between Kansas and Missouri. They're both spread teams who are good at passing the ball and defending the pass (likely because they see it every day in practice), but they both also suck at running the ball or stopping the run.

And just like last week, I say to throw out the stats. I think Mizzou will come in with their backs against the wall and give us everything we want in the first half. Blaine Gabbert isn't nearly as turnover-prone as Todd Reesing, so we're going to have to win this the old-fashioned way: D-Train left, D-Train right, D-Train up the middle.

One thing's for sure: If we lead at halftime, it's over. Missouri hasn't scored a TD in the second half of any of its conference games and Bill Snyder has a prodigious record when leading at the half, especially at home.

Furthermore, Bill Snyder is undefeated against Missouri at home in November and undefeated against Gary Pinkel. Things are unraveling in Columbia, and I don't think this is the best place for them to try and put it all back together.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Missouri 25

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

We're keeping it all in the divisions this week, and the pecking order in both the North and the South should become a lot clearer after Saturday's games.

In general, I like the home teams, except in the case of rapidly fading Kansas and outmatched Baylor. Whaddaya know? The two traditional Big 12 bottom-feeders, unable to defend their home turf? Just like old times, says I.

#2 Texas at Baylor (FSN)
Longhorns 28, Bears 10

Colorado at Iowa State
Cyclones 35, Buffaloes 28

Nebraska at Kansas (ABC)
Cornhuskers 25, Jayhawks 22

Texas A&M at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 28, Aggies 18

Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Cowboys 22, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Kansas

BracketCat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 | 3-2) VS. Kansas Jayhawks (5-3 | 1-3)

The Sunflower Showdown
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock Chalk Talk — but I don't recommend it. They have diseases over there.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (61 of 98, 665 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (42 catches, 524 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (181 carries, 902 yards, 10 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (29 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 2 FF, 2 FR)

Passing
Todd Reesing (205 of 320, 2,385 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Kerry Meier (65 catches, 666 yards, 6 TD)

Rushing
Toben Opurum (114 carries, 491 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Dezmon Briscoe (54 catches, 841 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (32 | -7) > KU (76)

Passing Offense
KU (7) > K-State (102 | +2)

Total Offense
KU (11) > K-State (75 | -1)

Scoring Offense
KU (19) > K-State (58 | +6)

Rushing Defense
KU (14) > K-State (24 | -5)

Pass Efficiency Defense
KU (56) > K-State (63 | -12)

Total Defense
K-State (43 | -4) > KU (47)

Scoring Defense
K-State (59 | -13) > KU (71)

Net Punting
KU (85) > K-State (87 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (43 | -1) > KU (85)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5) > KU (87)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14) > KU (57)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -7) > KU (100)

Passing Efficiency
KU (35) > K-State (70 | -3)

Analysis

See all those pretty numbers above? This may be the only time you hear this from a stats guy like me, so enjoy it:

Throw 'em out the window. They don't mean jack.

Nothing would surprise me in this game. Not another 12-3 slugfest, not K-State passing for 300 yards, not Sharp rumbling for 200 again (well, that would be a little surprising).

Both teams want this one and it will be a war. Mark that down.

I will say this: KU, like OU, is rated ahead of us in most categories, which you should take with a grain of salt because of the weak non-conference competition. As the Jayhawks get further into the conference season, those numbers have continued to plummet.

But unlike OU, KU is worse than K-State in four key areas, by a significant margin: total defense, scoring defense, punt returns and pass defense. And we're at home, in front of a near-sellout crowd, with a legend on the sidelines. I'm just sayin'...

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Kansas 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Texas rolls in a laugher and suddenly dominant Texas A&M should cruise in high altitude.

Mizzou will get more fight from the hibernating Bears than they might expect, but that has more to do with Gary Pinkel's crappy halftime adjustments than anything else.

Iowa State is a hot upset pick, but I think T. Boone's boys will get it done. "Win one for the Dezzer!"

And that leaves the rumble in Memorial Stadium. If the over for this game was 400 cumulative yards for both teams, I might be tempted to bet the under. Should be fun.

UCF at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 33, Golden Knights 7

Texas A&M at Colorado
Aggies 32, Buffaloes 27

Baylor at Missouri
Tigers 34, Bears 23

#18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (ABC)
Cowboys 26, Cyclones 21

#20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (ABC)
Sooners 20, Cornhuskers 19

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Oklahoma

BracketCat — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:45:15 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 | 3-1) VS. No. 22 Oklahoma Sooners (4-3 | 2-1)

The Norman Conquest
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Norman, Okla.
Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 - 6 PM CST

FSN

A tough task awaits this week. By statistical fluke, we actually possess a better overall and Big 12 record than the Oklahoma Sooners, but we're going to have to play a solid — and lucky — game to keep it that way Saturday night.

The Sooners have forced at least two turnovers in each game this season and have forced at least three four times. And Bob Stoops has only lost two home games during his entire tenure at OU — and neither of them were to North teams.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Crimson And Cream Machine.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (42 of 68, 491 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (33 catches, 368 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (165 carries, 814 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (41 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 1 FR)

Passing
Landry Jones (117 of 192, 1,363 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Broyles (36 catches, 500 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Chris Brown (105 carries, 427 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
DeMarco Murray (84 catches, 403 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (25 | +8) > OU (65)

Passing Offense
OU (20) > K-State (104 | -9)

Total Offense
OU (29) > K-State (74 | -5)

Scoring Offense
OU (24) > K-State (64 | -6)

Rushing Defense
OU (3) > K-State (19 | +7)

Pass Efficiency Defense
OU (12) > K-State (51 | +17)

Total Defense
OU (6) > K-State (39 | +8)

Scoring Defense
OU (2) > K-State (46 | +17)

Net Punting
OU (24) > K-State (92 | -3)

Punt Returns
OU (13) > K-State (42 | -11)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +2) > OU (76)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14 | +10) > OU (26)

Pass Defense
OU (36) > K-State (74 | +7)

Passing Efficiency
OU (40) > K-State (67 | -12)

Analysis

Well, as much as I hate to admit it, Oklahoma clearly outclasses us in most categories, despite not being a particularly impressive team on offense or special teams. Our one distinct advantage is in running the ball, something the Sooners seemed to have abandoned trying altogether. Unfortunately, it will be strength against strength, because Daniel Thomas will have to run straight into the teeth of the Oklahoma run defense, led by Gerald McCoy.

On offense, Oklahoma isn't particularly proficient at passing, either, but they're passably decent and Ryan Broyles is a deadly threat every time he catches the ball, just like Brandon Banks. I think our secondary will do a decent job on them, but Landry Jones is a pretty decent quarterback — he just has crappy receivers who can't catch the ball. If our offense doesn't do its part to keep theirs off the field, it will end up being a long day, most likely.

That leaves the onus on special teams. We absolutely have to break a big play for a touchdown, and maybe two — whether on kick returns, punt returns or punt blocks. I don't see any other way to keep up with OU's offense given our own ineptitude in the passing game of late.

As usual, field position and turnovers will be key, because we will need to play the same keep-away game we've honed all season. I'm worried, since Oklahoma has a significant advantage in both net punting and punt returns, and isn't far behind us in turnover margin.

On paper, this is the second-worst matchup of the season. But games aren't played on paper. I'm optimistic enough to say the Cats will play well enough defensively, in what should be a fairly defensive game, to beat the 25-point spread.

Beating the Sooners, on the other hand, is a trickier proposition. It will require turnovers, big plays from Brandon Banks, some big-time open-field runs from Daniel Thomas and a superb passing day from Grant Gregory, as well as a ton of luck. I just don't see it happening.

As usual, we will need to score at least 20 points to secure the win, as we have done in all five previous victories. But that might not even be enough to escape Norman with a W.

Prediction: Oklahoma 29, Kansas State 17

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Nothing has been as predicted this season, so while I am sure everyone expects Nebraska to get out of Waco with a win while scoring only 10 points, I'm going to go ahead and say it will be more of a shootout than that. It's just been that kind of year.

Likewise, everyone thinks Kansas at Texas Tech will be a shootout... so I'm expecting a defensive struggle.

I think Mizzou and Texas A&M barely will squeak out wins, but would either Colorado or Iowa State winning surprise you all that much?

And in the big game, I expect Texas to survive their biggest challenge after learning from last year's debacle in Lubbock. Oklahoma State has lost too many pieces they expected to have to pull this off.

Nebraska at Baylor (Versus)
Huskers 30, Bears 25

Missouri at Colorado (FSN)
Tigers 30, Buffaloes 28

Kansas at Texas Tech (ABC)
Red Raiders 25, Jayhawks 21

Iowa State at Texas A&M
Aggies 27, Cyclones 26

#3 Texas at #13 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Longhorns 17, Cowboys 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

RPT — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:15:18 -0000

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- Big 12 North Roulette Edition

TB — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:15:48 -0000

via cdn0.sbnation.com

Another weekend, another crazy batch of results in the Big 12. Our answers to the most pressing questions of the day are below.

This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

TB: Yes, they could compete with UT, but sadly, I can't say with certainty they would win. I really miss 1996-2003.

Panjandrum: Honestly? Yes. It's not a silly question, per se, but to think that one team in this conference is THAT much better than an entire division is silly. Texas is not a complete team themselves; they struggle running the football, and that will come back to bite them.

I get why someone would ask this question, but truthfully, the answer is simple. The North all-star team would probably roll UT.

BracketCat: To properly answer this question, I need to see what such a team actually would look like. Here's my best stab at a two-deep:

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

TB: K-State needs only one more win to get into a possible tiebreaker, and two more wins would probably win the division outright. Two home games against division opponents remain. Odds: 10-1

Nebraska is 1-2, so it needs to win three out of five if we assume a 4-4 tiebreaker, or four out of five if we assume 5-3 wins it. Still has a home game with Oklahoma and road trips to Colorado and KU. Oh, and no confidence right now. Odds: 12-1

KU is 1-2 and, with road trips to Lubbock and Austin remaining, has zero margin for error. Throw in a trip to Manhattan and playing Missouri in Kansas City, and this is looking more like history <s>a</s>waits. Odds: 15-1

Missouri is 0-3 but by far has its easiest games left. Still, they need to win out to get to 5-3, and that's a tall task for a team with a hobbled quarterback and a defense that's pointing fingers right now. Odds: 15-1

While Iowa State is 2-2, they needed every bit of eight Nebraska turnovers to get there, and who knows how long they'll be without Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson. Without those guys, it looks like a bleak picture for ISU, although it's entirely possible they get bowl eligible as they only need one more win. Odds: 30-1

Colorado is 1-2, but has a coach who is hell-bent on playing his son at quarterback. Also, can't win on the road. Will be a threat at home, but they're the least likely team to take the division, in my opinion. Odds: 50-1

Now, do you see why I'm not an oddsmaker?

Panjandrum: If the magic number is five, I will try and handicap how likely it is that each team gets to five wins:

KSU: KSU has two more home games against North teams (KU/MU) and two road games (OU/NU). I still think NU beats KSU in Lincoln, but I'm going to favor KSU against KU and MU in Manhattan at this point. Neither of those teams look good on the road, and KSU has played well enough at home to win.

Since KSU only needs to win two of their next four to get to five wins, they seem the most likely at this point.

Odds: 30%

Nebraska: I don't like discounting a team with a really good defense, but unless they get their offense right, i don't think they can win four of five to get to the title game. A team with no confidence and a shaky QB situation is a bad, bad combo (just ask KSU about one month ago), but maybe the defense can carry them through.

Odds: 20%

Missouri: Missouri has to run the table to get to five wins. However, that's a little more manageable now that they have NU, UT, and OSU off of the table. We'll see how they fare against teams more on their level. But, the real question is what their 'level' is without a healthy Gabbert.

Odds: 20%

Iowa State: The Clones are a real feel good story right now, but they shouldn't have gotten out of Lincoln with a win. They need three wins, and with road games in College Station and Columbia, and a home game with Oklahoma State, I would say the chances of getting to five wins are pretty slim.

Odds: 15%

Kansas: KU needs four wins, and they have the most brutal schedule left of any of the North teams. They have three true road games (Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State), one neutral site game (Missouri), and one home game (Nebraska). There is no way in Hell that they're winning four games. Truthfully, KU fans better hope they win one more to get bowl eligible with that schedule.

Odds: 10%

Colorado: I'm not even going to do an analysis. Colorado is the worst football team I've watched KSU play this year (with the exception of the FCS teams). Yes, I thought Louisiana was better. They have no hope of winning the North or going to a bowl game, and Dan Hawkins should be fired because I can't stomach watching football that's that bad ever again.

Odds: 5%

BracketCat: Oh, man, I don't know jack about gambling. I'll defer to TB on this one.

Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

TB: I'll say that they showed they won't mail the season in. Also, they showed that it wasn't a fluke that they lost close games to (relatively) good teams in the non-con and the RRS. When it's all said and done, they'll be second or third in the South, meaning they'll be second or third in the conference overall. Not what Oklahoma is used to, but with an all-new offensive line and the injury bug biting at every skill position, not bad.

Panjandrum: Oklahoma is like a lot of the other teams in this conference; they're incomplete. Defensively, they're very, very good. Offensively, they struggle. I don't know if they're 'back on track' as much as exposed as a 'good but not great' team.

BracketCat: No, because KU sucks. Don't get me wrong -- Oklahoma is better than people have been giving them credit for, but the offense still is pretty painful to watch. Ironically, the Sooners remind me a lot of some of the classic TCU teams, including the one that beat them in Norman. Lots of defense, unimaginative offense. It's ironic because I think TCU would beat OU this year nine times out of 10.

Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

TB: They showed us each team's floor and each team's ceiling. K-State is only as bad as it played in Lubbock on its worst night, and is only as good as it played against Texas A&M on its best. Ditto A&M and Texas Tech. I understand the punditry's desire to use logic as an explanation for every result, but sometimes everything just goes horribly wrong in a game played by 18-22 year olds.

Panjandrum: Honestly, I think this says more about A&M than it does about any other team. I think they have a lot of weapons, but Mike Sherman is a mouth-breathing moron that can only gameplan a victory by blind luck.

BracketCat: They told me that comparative scoring is worthless and predicting game outcomes is all about understanding matchups. Texas Tech beat Kansas State because Tech's system is a terrible matchup for any team that has trouble scoring points. K-State beat Texas A&M because A&M hadn't yet played outside the state of Texas and was starting a gazillion freshman and sophomores.

A&M beat Tech because Tech always has had a problem with A) defending mobile quarterbacks once they get going, B) getting into a rhythm if the other team's running game is controlling the line of scrimmage, and C) turning it over repeatedly and losing at home to coaching geniuses like Dan Hawkins and Mike Sherman. See? Matchups.

Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

TB: Texas definitely needed a game where it got out to the races and put up big numbers and points. I still think OSU does have what it takes. It's going to be one of those special nights that, if the home team wins, its fans will never forget. The stadium will be packed, the bright national spotlight will be shining, and the inside track to a division championship and, for Texas, a national championship, is at stake. On paper, Texas looks better, but not overpoweringly better, and perhaps not enough to overcome the fired-up team they'll face Saturday.

Panjandrum: I think Texas is the best team in the conference, so beating a crippled Missouri team wasn't a surprise. Oklahoma State is a talented team that could possibly pull off an upset, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Zac Robinson if that's going to happen. No Dez Bryant or Kendall Hunter makes it that much more difficult.

BracketCat: In short, yes and yes. Texas got its act together just in time, because Oklahoma State has the running game to keep Colt McCoy off the field for long stretches of time. That said, I still think Texas will find a way to win this one. They just seem to have a hex over the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when they get down by multiple touchdowns as has happened many times in the past decade.

Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

TB:

1. Texas -- Big tilt in Stillwater will decide this team's championship aspirations.
2. Oklahoma State -- Quietly, Mike Gundy's crew is going about its business without its biggest stars, but the big test is Saturday.
3. Oklahoma -- Maybe not a national title contender this year, but still vastly superior to any North foe.
4. Texas Tech -- I'd like to drop the Pirates after that debacle in Lubbock, and I'm admonishing the Tech fans for chanting "No more Potts!" Way to throw one of your own under the bus. But back to the question: Who do you move ahead of these guys?
5. K-State -- On this day, in this place, I have to rank them here. The next four weeks will either solidify or decimate that opinion.
6. Nebraska -- Through it all, they still have that defense. Eight giveaways and ISU only scored nine points? If they ever get their offense figured out and get healthy, they'll be back as the favorite to win the North.
7. KU -- Any rational person knew they would probably lose to OU, but they didn't put up much of a fight and Todd Reesing doesn't look like himself right now. Can make amends with a win in Lubbock, but let's just say I'm not counting on that.
8. Missouri -- It's pretty simple right now. If Blaine Gabbert gets healthy, they're a contender in the North again. If he doesn't, they're not.
9. Iowa State -- I can hear the gasp to my northeast as Cyclone fans wonder how I can rank them this low at 2-2. Maybe it's a little unfair, but while you can't take that Nebraska win away from them, they needed every single one of NU's eight turnovers to win. On average, that's not going to happen very often.
10. Texas A&M -- This probably seems all wrong until you remember that some were ranking the Aggies 13th last week. Very nice win over Tech, and we're probably still putting too much stock into the big loss at K-State, but I'm not sure who I can bump.
11. Colorado -- Momentum from the KU win vanished in Manhattan. Buffs need to regroup.
12. Baylor -- Yeah.

Panjandrum:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Nebraska
6. K-State
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Baylor

BracketCat: Man, this gets harder every week.

1. Texas -- Finally playing like the most powerful team in the Big 12, and just in time.
2. Oklahoma -- Defense alone makes them the second-best team in the conference.
3. Oklahoma State -- After this week, both Oklahoma schools should have the same Big 12 record.
T4. Nebraska -- Despite an embarrassing two-week stretch, I still think this is the most talented defense in the North. Combined with a sort-of-favorable schedule, it should be enough.
T4. Texas Tech -- You gave up 50+ to Mike Sherman? WTF? Sorry, that negates even the head-to-head tiebreaker.
T6. Kansas -- Let's just call this the muddied middle. It should sort itself out in the next three weeks.
T6. Iowa State -- Ditto. I'm making allowances for injuries here.
T6. Missouri -- Not as bad as their record, but not as good as the hype.
T6. Kansas State - Still not sure we're not a product of our schedule a little bit. Again, will know a lot more in three weeks.
10. Texas A&M -- Big win gets you out of the basement... for a while.
11. Baylor -- Despite meeting my 12th-place criteria with an ugly blowout loss at home, I still think the Bears would beat the Buffs on a neutral field.
12. Colorado -- Oops. Guess you actually do suck after all. You just sucked a little less than KU on one particular Saturday.