SB Nation - Ernie Pierce

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Nestor — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

We will leave it to others for now to write and speculate about UCLA making a move in the Pac-10. Here on the home page of BN, we will stick to the mantra that has worked for us for years: keep our focus on our next opponent. With a record of 4-8 in 2008, we are not the kind of program that has the luxury to look ahead. Coming into this season the goal for Rick Neuheisel and his football team was to get into a bowl game with at least 6 regular season victories. With a 2-0 start and a win at a difficult place like the Neyland Stadium, it puts us in a must win situation this week in our last remaining non conference game before the start of a tough Pac-10 schedule.

Our next opponent – Kansas State Wildcats – are off to a very rough start in 2009. The Wildcats struggled to beat UMass at home (a team which just started playing D-1A ball this year) and then they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 15-17. The takes from our SBN colleagues at Bring On The Cats (BTC) are understandably gloomy. Sportsline.com also put their recent loss "in perspective":

Let's put this one in perspective: Louisiana had not defeated a school from a BCS conference since Sept. 14, 1996, when Jake Delhomme led the Ragin' Cajuns to a 29-22 upset of No. 25 Texas A&M. Overall, the Cajuns were just 1-15 against teams from the Big 12 Conference.

That, however, was before Saturday's 17-15 victory over Kansas State in Lafayette.

"It's probably disheartening to a lot of people," coach Bill Snyder said of the loss, which dipped the Wildcats to 1-1. "I want our guys to be disappointed."

Still, if anyone wants to get all smug and disrespect the KSU, I’d suggest browsing through Tennessee blogs and message boards last week and revisit those bold predictions of the Volunteers cruising to a victory.

Last week it was our team that went into the opponent’s turf with nothing to lose. This week it will be the Kansas State Wildcats, who will be coming into the Rose Bowl as double digit underdogs, looking to sneak up with nothing to lose on a Bruin football team and fanbase feeling good about a SEC road win. Add to those factors we will most likely be breaking in a true freshman QB as a starter, a revamped OL which is improving but still working to gel as a unit, and all the inexperience at other offensive skill positions, Bruins will need to be on high alert. So with those toplines let’s get to some initial notes on Kansas Sate.

The story of these Wildcats begin with their head coach Bill Snyder who returned to Manhattan to clean up the mess left behind by inept regime of Ron Prince. If CRN’s return to UCLA is the "return of the prodigious son," Snyder’s return to Manhattan can be looked as "the Return Of the Godfather". Paul Meyerberg from the New York Times’ put Snyder’s record in perspective in his pre-season Wildcat preview:

The Wildcats went 137-445-18 from 1935-1988, the year before Snyder’s arrival. The program finished with only five winning seasons over this 54-year span: 1936, 1953-54, 1970 and 1982; that’s three fewer winning seasons than the program had winless seasons over that time. When Snyder arrived in late 1988, the program was mired in a streak of 27 consecutive games without a win (under Stan Parrish, the new coach at Ball State). While he did not immediately make K.S.U. into a winner – the Wildcats won 18 games in his first four seasons – the program took the next step forward in 1993, when it finished 9-3-1 and set a team record for points in a season (312). That year marked the first of 11 nine-win or better seasons in 12 years for the Wildcats, including a stretch from 1997 to 2003 of six 11-win seasons in seven years, making K-State only the second program in F.B.S. history to have such an extended streak of tremendous play. In 1998, an historic win over rival Nebraska pushed K-State to the top spot in the A.P. poll, the first time the team stood atop the college football landscape. That year – which ended with the Wildcats at No. 4 nationally – might have been the apex of the program, but Snyder continued to field annual conference and B.C.S. contenders. Kansas State won its first conference championship since 1934 in 2003, when it upset heavily favored and then-No. 1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. However, the team struggled in the following two seasons, finishing a combined 9-15, leading many to question whether Snyder could still coach at a high level. Hence Snyder’s decision after the 2004 season (mutual, by all accounts) to step down, leading K.S.U. to hire Prince.

Well Prince ran the program into the ground (just like Karl Dorrell). Luckily for KSU it took them three years to recognize that fact, so they brought in Synder to clean up the mess. Apparently he is kind of a character as noted by the bloggers at Barking Carnival (Texas Longhorns blog) in their hilarious 2009 preview of Kansas State. It’s pretty funny (not very politically correct) read, all though I am sure it’s not amusing to fans of KSU (and it includes the usual easy cheap shots at Neuheisel that seems to be SOP for fans of most Big-12 teams).

As for the team, the biggest challenge for Kansas State this season has been replacing quarterback Josh Freeman, who was a first round draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. Freeman left KSU after his junior season, setting the school’s holds career mark for passing yards (8,078), touchdowns (40), completions (663), attempts (1,121) and total offense (8,080). So far the QBs seeking to step up for Freeman have been struggling. From TB at BTC:

At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

I imagine Coffman and Gregory’s struggle have the Wildcats frustrated because at least per the pre-season reviews they had some weapons to work with and were coming into the season with a decent offensive line:

Despite losing Murphy (Deon Murphy, who finished third on the team in receptions with 37, and second on the squad in receiving yards (555) and touchdowns (6)) and Pierce (Ernie Pierce, whose 15.7 yards per catch average (24 for 424 yards) led the team), the deepest position on the Kansas State offense is wide receiver. The team brings back the 2008 Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year in the senior Brandon Banks, who led the team in receptions (67), yards (1,049) and touchdowns (9) in his first season with the program. Banks, like Murphy before him, excels in the return game, as shown in his 27.7 yards per kick return average. He will be joined at receiver by the senior Aubrey Quarles (34 receptions for 407 yards) and the junior Lamark Brown (24 for 178). Brown spent much of his 2008 season at running back, leading the team in rushing (412 yards). Another weapon to watch in the passing game is the senior tight end Jeron Mastrud, who made 38 receptions for 455 yards a season ago. The senior Keithen Valentine is expected to assume the starting running back role, but the freshman Jarell Childs and the sophomore Logan Dold will also receive carries. The offensive line may have lost three starters, but the team does return a numbers of players with past starting experience. Leading the way is the senior Nick Stringer, a 2008 all-Big 12 honorable mention pick at left tackle. He brings 23 career starts into his final season, most among all Wildcat offensive linemen. Stringer and guard Eric Benoit are the only seniors on the current two-deep, so this will be a young group in 2009. Still, the line could be surprisingly strong this fall, especially if it gets good production from the plethora of sophomores battling for starting roles.

Brandon Banks is off to a slow start for the Wilcats per Sportsline.com. Banks had just three catches for 33 yards against Louisiana, after catching seven balls for 67 yards in the opening win over UMass. So, if I were the Bruin DBs, I’d keep a close eye on him. Meanwhile, DB Daniel Thomas is off to good start as he has put together back to back 100 yards rushing games (I know, I know ... look at the opponent) in his first two games (136 yards in 27 carries against Louisiana, which followed a 104 yard game against UMass).

I think it will be interesting to see how the Bruin defense comes out on Saturday. I am sure it’s not lost on them that despite their solid (some would call it outstanding) performance in last two weeks, they didn’t really come out and set a dominating tone in their first series. Especially as good as the performances have been from Rahim Moore, ATV, Reggie Carter, Brian Price, and the Bosworth brothers, we can use more focused performance from kids such as Akeem Ayers. Our defense still has room to grow to reach it full potential, and the team with a new quarterback will be really looking to them to set the tone on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball Wildcats have some athletes on the defensive side with two solid ends on the frontline:

The team returns two solid ends in the sophomore Brandon Harold (45 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a 2008 freshman all-American, and the senior Eric Childs (52 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Harold is the most likely current Wildcat to continue the team’s recent tradition of standout defensive ends. In the middle, K.S.U. should be very excited about what the senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald can do for the team’s run defense (217.7 yards per game last fall). Fitzgerald, who sat out all of last fall after transferring in from Virginia, may be the best player on the entire defense.

The Wildcats return two starters at linebacker, including the sophomore Alex Hrebec. A former walk-on, Hrebec stuffed the stat sheet last fall with 68 tackles (4 for loss), 2.5 sacks and an interception. It’s rare enough to see a walk-on earn a starting role for a B.C.S.-conference program; it’s rarer still to see a walk-on start as a redshirt freshman. Joining him at linebacker is the senior Ulla Pomele (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss), a former JUCO transfer. K-State’s secondary is led by the junior Joshua Moore, a 2008 honorable mention all-Big 12 pick and a potential all-American this fall. Moore concluded his sophomore campaign first on the team in both tackles (76) and interceptions (3), illustrating his importance to the overall success of the defense. Moore is the best Wildcat cornerback since Terence Newman. He is joined in the secondary by three talented safeties: Chris Carney, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon.

Well not sure if Harold will be available for this weekend’s game as per their roster report on CBS he has been sitting out with an injury (along with DE Kadero Terrell and AR Aubrey Quarles). Perhaps the Kansas State fans who are lurking on BN this week, can provide us with a more up to date take on the injury situation. As for the other guys, Pete Fiutak from College Football News called Joshua Moore the best defensive player for KSU heading into this season.

I think the key here will be all about game management. We will need our quarterback to do what Prince did fairly effectively as a first year starter in his first two games: minimize mistakes and do what he can to keep the chains moving. This will be one of those games that will present Chow and his offense an opportunity to execute the strategy of picking up 4 yards or more per rushing attempts, and putting the offense in manageable situations on second and third downs. If we can combine that with continued stellar play from our special teams we will have a good chance to keep the momentum going heading into a bye week.

That’s what I have for now. I am looking forward to learning up about Kansas State, the same way we keep discussing Tennessee this past week. We will be reading up more on KSU during the week. If you have your own perspective to offer up wrt to Saturdays’ matchups fire the quick takes in the comment threads and the extended ones in FanPosts. That invitation goes out to all Kansas State fans who might be visiting BN for the first time. We are looking forward to chatting up football the same way we had fun going back and forth (in respectful and classy way) with the Volunteer fans from last game week. Football should always be about fun.

GO BRUINS.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

TB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Sorry this is really late from BOTC. I was out of town all last week and wasn't checking my email, so this got ignored. Anyway, CBS Sports and SB Nation's Colorado blog, The Ralphie Report, are this official conference preview. Here is BOTC's "outsider's" conference preview, intended to be a lot like something you'd find in a magazine.

Offense (Six Returning Starters)

Everything begins at the quarterback position, and K-State has a big hole to fill there after Josh Freeman left to become a first-round NFL draft pick. The favorite to replace him is junior Carson Coffman, and if you've followed Big 12 football recently, yes, he is the brother of former Missouri tight end Chase Coffman. Coffman was the starting QB for the first-team squad in the spring game, and played very well in completing 25 of 36 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, that was against the second-string defense, but it was a much more impressive performance than we had seen in prior spring games. All signs still point to Coffman being the starter in the first game against UMass, as it doesn't appear Grant Gregory, Collin Klein, or Joseph Kassanavoid have done anything to unseat the frontrunner.

Running back is a mystery position for the Cats this season, as it was one of many areas on the roster about which former coach Ron Prince apparently had no understanding when it came to roster management. Last year's leading rusher, Lamark Brown, is moving to wide receiver. Logan Dold, the second-leading rusher among running backs, moved to safety. The next running back, Keithen Valentine, has had two good spring games in a row, and almost nothing to show for it during the regular season. Last season, Valentine rushed for 129 yards total.

Snyder announced that heralded recruit Daniel Thomas will likely start the season at running back, which probably makes him the favorite to be the starter against UMass. Thomas is a dynamic athlete who also has the size -- 6'2", 227 lbs. -- to be among the biggest running backs we've had in a while.

Whatever production K-State is going to get from its wide receivers, it had better get it this season. The squad's best receivers are almost all seniors, which will leave a big hole in 2010. However, this group looks like one of the team's strengths, led by 2008's Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. Banks is the undersized receiver with blazing speed, and the best home-run threat K-State has had since Darren Sproles started at running back.

Along with Banks, senior Attrail Snipes and junior Lamark Brown could add some depth and firepower at this position. Snipes didn't get much of a chance to play wide receiver last year, but he was a highly touted junior college recruit who could make an impact. As already mentioned, Brown has moved back to wide receiver after playing running back last season. He's another gifted athlete who could give opposing defenses headaches if he picks up the position quickly.

Tight end should be a position at which K-State is fairly solid this season. Senior Jeron Mastrud returns after a 2008 season in which he caught 38 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Solid numbers for a tight end, and he's that reliable target you want a new quarterback to have. The backups at tight end are a bit of a question mark, with newcomers Prizell Brown (junior college transfer) and Travis Tannahill (freshman) being the most likely candidates to spell Mastrud.

One thing you can say about K-State's offensive line is that it has a lot of players with returning starts. Given that Prince liked to rotate players around, nobody can be absolutely sure who will start where and whether the prior experience will be much help, but at least this unit isn't trying to break in a bunch of true freshman and transfers. Nick Stringer anchors the line at left tackle, bringing 23 starts into 2009. Completing Coffman's blind-side protection on the left side will probably be Zach Kendall, who has five starts to his credit.

Wade Weibert and Trevor Viers will vie for the starting spot at center. Viers has seven starts to his credit, but Weibert was a top-50 junior college recruit who started with the first team during the spring game.

On the right side, Clyde Aufner probably gets the nod at right tackle, and Colten Freeze probably starts at guard. Aufner saw action in three games last year as a redshirt freshman, while Freeze had three starts last season as a redshirt freshman. Expect to see a lot of competition for these positions, with sophomore Kaleb Drinkgern and junior Kenny Mayfield pushing for playing time.

Defense (Eight Returning Starters)

To say that K-State's 2008 defense was putrid would be kind. Out of 119 FBS teams, K-State ranked 117 in total defense. So yeah, things are bad. But with a strong new coaching staff and several talented players returning, improvement is likely on this side of the ball in 2009. The real question is how much improvement will be made, and whether it will be enough to have a significant effect on the season.

Before Brandon Harold's injury in preseason practice, the defensive line looked to be the strength of the team. Harold was a freshman all-america last season, registering 45 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss last season, but we don't know how soon he'll return after he dinged up his knee in practice. Jeffrey Fitzgerald is likely to start at defensive tackle, although an offseason arrest on suspicion of DUI may temporarily derail those plans. Fitzgerald is a transfer from Virginia, and with the Cavaliers 137 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in 25 starts.

Other probable starters on the defensive line are Daniel Calvin at DT and Eric Childs at DE. Childs was honorable mention all-conference last season as a junior while making 11 starts and recording 52 tackles. Calvin is a big body in the middle at 6'3" and 310 lbs., but didn't have the type of season K-State was hoping for last season. Look for newcomer Kadero Terrell, a hybrid defensive end/linebacker to see some time at DE this season, too, if the spring game was any indication.

Linebacker looks to be one of K-State's weaker units this season after losing three players who had multiple starts last season. However, the defense is moving to a 4-2-5 alignment in an attempt to combat the Big 12's prolific spread offenses, so fewer linebackers will be required. One of the positions will be occupied by sophomore Alex Hrebec, who registered 68 tackles in only six starts last season. The other linebacker spot will be filled either by John Houlik or Ulla Pomele. Pomele had the better season last year and would be the choice of most K-State fans at this position.

In the secondary, it begins with cornerback Joshua Moore. In 2006, Moore was a freshman all-america before being injured late in the season. He returned to action in 2008 after redshirting the 2007 season as a result of apparent academic issues. Moore was one of the few bright spots on last season's atrocious defense, tallying 76 tackles, three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. The starter at the other cornerback position is still uncertain. Senior Billy McClellan is probably the leading candidate seeing action in 10 games last season.

The safeties will be expected to play a bigger role in Vic Koenning's and Chris Cosh's 4-2-5 scheme. Courtney Herndon will likely start at one of the safety positions after starting 10 games and recording 61 tackles last season. Chris Carney also had a solid season last year, with 53 tackles and five passes broken up in only four starts.

Defensive back will be a position to keep an eye on at K-State this season. Two players who have switched position, Logan Dold and Tysyn Hartman, could see action at DB this season. Also, newcomer Emmanuel Lamur is one of the more intriguing additions to the team. Lamur is a big defensive back at 6'4" and 214 lbs., and the coaches seem to be pretty high on him.

Special Teams

One of the hallmarks of a Bill Snyder-coached team is solid special teams play. Coincidentally, that was about the only thing Ron Prince's teams did consistently well. This season, K-State's special teams should be solid again. In all likelihood, Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles will continue to return kickoffs, and Banks averaged 27.7 yards per return in that duty last season. It's not clear right now who will return punts for K-State after last year's punt returner, Deon Murphy, left the team.

One position where K-State should see significant improvement this season is punter. Last season, with George Pierson and D.J. Fulhage splitting time, punting was a weakness, as the Cats finished 10th in the Big 12 in net punting. Panjandrum attended the spring game and was very impressed with newcomer Ryan Doerr, who is the likely starter this season.

At kicker, junior Josh Cherry is the likely starter despite seeing very limited action behind Brooks Rossman last season. Doerr is also listed as a kicker and was pretty solid at that position in high school, so it's possible Doerr could pull double duty.

Key Losses

Offense: Josh Freeman (QB), Deon Murphy (WR), Ernie Pierce (WR)

Defense: Ian Campbell (DE), Ray Cheatham (S), Reggie Walker (LB), Blair Irvin (S)

Special Teams: Brooks Rossman (K), Deon Murphy (PR)

Season Forecast

K-State's non-conference slate features two FCS teams, meaning the Wildcats will have to win seven games to reach bowl eligibility this season. While that's not impossible given the upgrade at every position on the coaching staff, it could be a bridge too far for a team that's 10-14 the last two seasons. In another interesting twist, K-State plays twelve games in twelve consecutive weeks, so it remains to be seen whether the lack of a bye week will hamper this team late in the season.

The Wildcats open up with a home game against UMass, dubbed by the athletic department as the "K-State Family Reunion" because it's Bill Snyder's first game back. Though Snyder's clubs are notoriously slow starters, the Wildcats should be able to handle an FCS team in the home opener. The next week, in a strange twist of scheduling, K-State travels to Lafayette, La., to play the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Last season, UL nearly upset the Cats in Manhattan. The Cajuns lost their quarterback and running back to graduation, however, and as such probably won't have quite enough firepower for a K-State team that should be improved on defense under Koenning and Cosh.

On September 19th, Snyder will take his club to Pasadena, Calif., to meet up with an old nemesis from the Big 8 (and early Big 12) days in Rick Neuheisel. Of course, Neuheisel coaches UCLA now, not Colorado, and last season's UCLA team was, well, pretty bad. The combined record of the teams UCLA defeated was 12-37. Despite that, the smart money would be to bet on UCLA in this game. Snyder's teams usually do not play well in September, and that will probably be amplified this season because it's Snyder's first year on the job.

After two weeks on the road, K-State then returns home for another FCS opponent, Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles were 3-9 last season and shouldn't pose a threat to K-State, especially in Manhattan.

K-State opens Big 12 play with a neutral-site game against Iowa State at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, Paul Rhoads, after two atrocious seasons under Gene Chizik. No game is a given for K-State this season, but last year's Wildcats defeated Iowa State in the last game of Prince's lame-duck tenure and, on a neutral field, should be able to topple the Cyclones again. After that, the going gets significantly more difficult, as K-State travels to Lubbock, Texas, to take on Captain Leach. Despite losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders are one of those programs that is more likely to reload than rebuild, and games in Lubbock are usually a nightmare for opposing teams.

A home date with Texas A&M awaits after K-State returns from the South Plains. In Snyder's first tenure, matchups with A&M were usually nightmares, but these aren't your older cousin's Aggies. Last season, K-State hammered A&M in College Station, and while the Aggies should be a little better this season, signs of significant improvement are absent. With K-State still breaking in a new system, this game will probably be a little closer than last season's meeting, but Snyder & Co. should still be able to pick up the win.

Another home date follows as Colorado comes to town the next week. The Buffs were one of the few programs -- Texas being the other -- that Prince's teams didn't completely suck against. Ol' Prince went 2-1 against Dan Hawkins in three tries, with the lone defeat being a one-point decision in Boulder last year. Colorado is the wildcard of the North, as most have expected them to be a lot better the last couple seasons than they actually were, and this is a game whose prediction could change based on how Colorado plays. Given that it's later in the season and the fact that I now live in the "Show-Me" state, I'm going to wait on Colorado to prove itself and call this a narrow win for K-State.

So if you're keeping score at home, my prognostications now have the Cats at 6-2. However, the schedule turns disastrous at this point, with the following games looming: @ Oklahoma, KU, Missouri, @ Nebraska. Obviously, the Oklahoma game can be written off as a loss at this point. Based on preseason pure roster talent, KU and Missouri are also likely losses for K-State, even at home. Nebraska is also among the favorites to win the North, so a game in Lincoln does not bode well for K-State to close the season. The season will turn on whether Snyder can find a win in this murderous finish. On the bright side, Snyder's clubs typically play their best ball in November, going 25-4 in November home games since 1990 (H/T, Phil Steele). If KU gets crushed by its South Division gauntlet and drops a surprise game against Colorado or Nebraska, the Cats may have a chance to pick up a win in a home rivalry game. Similarly, if Mizzou ends up rebuilding rather than reloading, that's a game the Cats could win if things are going well.

Predicted Order of Finish

Big 12 North

Nebraska

Missouri

K-State

Colorado

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

Big 12 'BTBS' Box Scores

Bill C. — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 01:29:34 -0000

That's right, boys and girls (mostly boys)...it's that time of week again. It's time for BTBS Box Scores!

Colorado (0)		Mizzou (58)
	% Close = 19.0%
31.1%	Field Position %	68.9%
58.0%	Leverage %	79.5%

	TOTAL
69	Plays	73
8.65	EqPts	40.05
27.5%	Success Rate	57.5%
0.13	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.55
0.401	S&P (Success + PPP)	1.124

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
7	Plays	20
-0.66	EqPts	12.25
14.3%	Success Rate	70.0%
-0.09	PPP	0.61
0.049	S&P	1.313

	RUSHING
2.94	EqPts	14.20
25.8%	Success Rate	46.9%
0.10	PPP	0.44
0.353	S&P	0.913
1.18	Line Yards/carry	2.88

	PASSING
5.71	EqPts	25.85
29.0%	Success Rate	65.9%
0.15	PPP	0.63
0.440	S&P	1.289

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
30.0%	Success Rate	62.1%
0.13	PPP	0.54
0.434	S&P	1.157

	PASSING DOWNS
24.1%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.11	PPP	0.60
0.355	S&P	0.998

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
2.41	Points Lost	1.76
2.10	Points Given	2.41
4.51	Total T/O Pts	4.17
-0.34	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.34

0.244	Q1 S&P	1.310
0.249	Q2 S&P	1.006
0.417	Q3 S&P	1.135
0.548	Q4 S&P	1.062

0.332	1st Down S&P	1.158
0.488	2nd Down S&P	0.992
0.377	3rd Down S&P	1.268

I'll save most of my thoughts for tomorrow, but...holy crap, those are just universally atrocious numbers from Colorado. Their best down (2nd) was not even half as good as Mizzou's best down (2nd). Their success rates on Non-Passing Downs (30.0%) were 10% worse than Mizzou's success rates on Passing Downs (40.0%). Missouri's close-game S&P was 2680% that of Colorado's. I don't mean to pile on, really (I like the folks at Ralphie Report), but...SEMO's offense looked about twice as good as Colorado's on Faurot Field. Coach Nick Nolte's got some work to do.

Other Big 12 games after the jump.

We'll start with last week's marquee game...

Okla St (24)		Texas (28)
	% Close = 100.0%
51.4%	Field Position %	48.6%
68.8%	Leverage %	74.0%

	TOTAL
64	Plays	77
24.01	EqPts	31.48
53.1%	Success Rate	54.6%
0.38	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.41
0.906	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.954

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
13.42	EqPts	9.66
62.5%	Success Rate	45.2%
0.42	PPP	0.31
1.044	S&P	0.763
4.12	Line Yards/carry	2.72

	PASSING
10.59	EqPts	21.83
43.8%	Success Rate	60.9%
0.33	PPP	0.47
0.768	S&P	1.083

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
59.1%	Success Rate	52.6%
0.35	PPP	0.38
0.941	S&P	0.905

	PASSING DOWNS
40.0%	Success Rate	60.0%
0.43	PPP	0.49
0.829	S&P	1.095

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
3.57	Points Lost	5.98
0.90	Points Given	2.70
4.47	Total T/O Pts	8.68
+2.21	Turnover Pts Margin	-2.21

0.697	Q1 S&P	0.871
1.126	Q2 S&P	1.292
1.036	Q3 S&P	1.139
0.631	Q4 S&P	0.595

0.952	1st Down S&P	0.909
0.850	2nd Down S&P	0.890
0.914	3rd Down S&P	1.261

Simply hellacious rushing numbers put up by Kendall Hunter and OSU. Wouldn't have thought that was possible against Texas. Honestly, he should have probably gotten more than 18 carries. However, despite the re-emergence of Brandon Pettigrew (just in time for him to win All-Big 12 over Chase Coffman, I'm sure), OSU's passing game was simply too ineffective to keep up. UT's secondary has slowly become a strength as the year has progressed, and their ability to prevent the big play has improved.
Meanwhile, if Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on Passing Downs. Yet again, UT was better on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about 6 quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), it might not.

Tex Tech (63)		Kansas (21)
	% Close = 44.9%
67.1%	Field Position %	32.9%
75.3%	Leverage %	72.9%

	TOTAL
77	Plays	59
47.33	EqPts	19.73
58.4%	Success Rate	50.9%
0.61	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.33
1.199	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.843

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
34	Plays	27
26.31	EqPts	11.98
67.7%	Success Rate	63.0%
0.77	PPP	0.44
1.450	S&P	1.073

	RUSHING
12.89	EqPts	9.16
55.6%	Success Rate	54.8%
0.48	PPP	0.30
1.033	S&P	0.844
3.36	Line Yards/carry	4.02

	PASSING
34.44	EqPts	10.57
60.0%	Success Rate	46.4%
0.69	PPP	0.38
1.289	S&P	0.842

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
65.5%	Success Rate	60.5%
0.57	PPP	0.38
1.224	S&P	0.986

	PASSING DOWNS
36.8%	Success Rate	25.0%
0.76	PPP	0.21
1.125	S&P	0.460

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	5
4.85	Points Lost	11.39
0.87	Points Given	15.18
5.72	Total T/O Pts	26.57
+20.85	Turnover Pts Margin	-20.85

1.528	Q1 S&P	1.282
1.267	Q2 S&P	0.480
1.149	Q3 S&P	0.000
1.317	Q4 S&P	0.607

1.205	1st Down S&P	0.936
1.034	2nd Down S&P	0.681
1.461	3rd Down S&P	0.964

Speaking of preventing the big play, Tech figured out the perfect defensive recipe for stopping KU. They prevented the big play, they contained Dez Briscoe, and they got into Todd Reesing's head. KU ran the ball well again, which is encouraging for them...but that's where the encouraging news ended. You're reading that right: they had a 0.00 S&P in Q3. They barely touched the ball, and they didn't have a single successful play. Of course, that's what happens when you throw 3 INTs in 4 passes, leading to...
A TWENTY-ONE POINT ADVANTAGE FOR TECH IN THE TURNOVER DEPARTMENT. Holy jeez, Mr. Reesing.
Meanwhile, the Tech offense continues to roll. Their ridiculous success on 3rd downs shows two things: 1) KU showed nothing on defense, and 2) Tech was doing a phenomenal job of leveraging into makeable 3rd downs (as proven by their 75% leverage rate). Graham Harrell wasn't pulling rabbits out of his hat on 3rd downs--he didn't have to.

Oklahoma (58)		K-State (35)
	% Close = 46.0%
55.0%	Field Position %	45.0%
0.662	Leverage %	0.631

	TOTAL
77	Plays	84
41.28	EqPts	38.17
44.2%	Success Rate	39.3%
0.54	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.45
0.978	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.847

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
40	Plays	34
33.87	EqPts	19.42
55.0%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.85	PPP	0.57
1.397	S&P	1.071

	RUSHING
22.81	EqPts	6.05
48.9%	Success Rate	33.3%
0.51	PPP	0.20
0.996	S&P	0.545
3.73	Line Yards/carry	2.05

	PASSING
18.47	EqPts	32.13
37.5%	Success Rate	42.6%
0.58	PPP	0.59
0.952	S&P	1.021

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0%	Success Rate	41.5%
0.59	PPP	0.49
1.102	S&P	0.907

	PASSING DOWNS
30.8%	Success Rate	35.5%
0.43	PPP	0.39
0.734	S&P	0.745

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	5
3.09	Points Lost	11.28
1.51	Points Given	15.13
4.60	Total T/O Pts	26.41
+21.81	Turnover Pts Margin	-21.81

1.769	Q1 S&P	1.008
0.993	Q2 S&P	1.271
0.634	Q3 S&P	0.576
0.378	Q4 S&P	0.579

1.252	1st Down S&P	0.691
0.811	2nd Down S&P	1.076
0.563	3rd Down S&P	0.825

I know it's weird saying this, considering they've scored 100+ points in the last two games (and they didn't even try in the second half against KSU), but I'm a little concerned about OU's offense. They're great at the big play, and that's fine (as long as they continue to pull off the long play), but...they're relying on it a bit too much. Their 38% passing success rate is too low, as is their 3rd Down S&P--against a better defense (like OSU's, for instance), they probably won't manage as many big plays, and they might be in trouble if they have to generate long drives.
That said, MAN OH MAN are they explosive...and they played K-State without their most explosive player, Manny Johnson (okay, Ryan Broyles might be their most explosive, but Johnson is more consistent).
I really enjoy picking at Ron Prince (particuarly his play-calling), as I really do not respect his abilities or coaching style...but instead of actually saying anything negative about him this time around (or how the play-calling still seems to have been suspect despite the fact that they scored 35 points against OU), I'll just link to a more knowledgeable source doing just that (to a degree). Moving on...
Josh Freeman (32.13 Passing EqPts and an INSANELY gorgeous bomb to Ernie Pierce) was the reason KSU kept up with OU for a while, and Josh Freeman (responsible for 4 of KSU's 5 turnovers, which completely made the difference in the game) was the reason KSU lost.

Baylor (20)		Nebraska (32)
	% Close = 100.0%
23.5%	Field Position %	76.5%
77.4%	Leverage %	72.3%

	TOTAL
53	Plays	83
22.78	EqPts	32.18
35.9%	Success Rate	47.0%
0.43	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.39
0.788	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.858

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
15.81	EqPts	10.01
43.3%	Success Rate	42.9%
0.53	PPP	0.29
0.960	S&P	0.715
3.33	Line Yards/carry	3.47

	PASSING
6.96	EqPts	22.17
26.1%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.30	PPP	0.46
0.564	S&P	0.962

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
41.5%	Success Rate	45.0%
0.48	PPP	0.36
0.899	S&P	0.814

	PASSING DOWNS
16.7%	Success Rate	52.2%
0.24	PPP	0.45
0.409	S&P	0.970

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	1
0.00	Points Lost	5.39
0.00	Points Given	0.80
0.00	Total T/O Pts	6.19
+6.19	Turnover Pts Margin	-6.19

1.271	Q1 S&P	0.890
0.927	Q2 S&P	0.839
0.680	Q3 S&P	0.778
0.336	Q4 S&P	0.921

1.032	1st Down S&P	0.779
0.663	2nd Down S&P	0.757
-0.049	3rd Down S&P	1.247

Chalk this one up to "Baylor's still learning how to win". Hot Tub Griffin's Bears were the better team on Non-Passing Downs, they led at halftime, they were still in the game heading into Q4...
...and they went 0-for-10 on 3rd Downs, put up a negative 3rd Down S&P, and put up a Colorado-esque Q4 S&P. Third downs and fourth quarters: the last step in learning how to win.
And power to NU for pulling through and establishing themselves as possibly the second-best team in the North (at least until they lose to KU soon...if they do indeed lose). They dominated the field position battle, and they made plays when it counted.

Tex A&M (49)		Iowa St (35)
	% Close = 90.6%
41.3%	Field Position %	58.8%
73.0%	Leverage %	65.9%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	85
39.73	EqPts	34.89
55.4%	Success Rate	52.9%
0.54	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.41
1.091	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.940

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	70
same	EqPts	25.70
same	Success Rate	50.0%
same	PPP	0.37
same	S&P	0.867

	RUSHING
12.49	EqPts	16.18
44.1%	Success Rate	51.4%
0.37	PPP	0.46
0.809	S&P	0.977
2.89	Line Yards/carry	3.50

	PASSING
27.24	EqPts	18.71
65.0%	Success Rate	54.0%
0.68	PPP	0.37
1.331	S&P	0.914

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
53.7%	Success Rate	60.7%
0.53	PPP	0.41
1.063	S&P	1.020

	PASSING DOWNS
60.0%	Success Rate	37.9%
0.57	PPP	0.41
1.168	S&P	0.785

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	2
3.57	Points Lost	2.48
1.76	Points Given	5.58
5.33	Total T/O Pts	8.06
+2.73	Turnover Pts Margin	-2.73

0.957	Q1 S&P	1.050
1.300	Q2 S&P	0.969
0.978	Q3 S&P	0.868
1.062	Q4 S&P	0.887

0.913	1st Down S&P	0.883
1.057	2nd Down S&P	0.880
1.582	3rd Down S&P	1.158

Power to ATM for winning despite once again getting gashed on the defensive line (3.50 line yards per carry) and losing the field position battle. Jerrod Johnson pulled his best Houdini act in coming up big on 3rd Downs (11-for-14) and Passing Downs. He completed six or more passes to four different targets--Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, and the McCoy brothers (Jamie and Terrence...who I'm disappointed to learn, actually are related...it's a lot more fun to call those sharing a last name "brothers" when they're quite obviously not brothers, a la Matt and Keon Lawrence), and the ATM offense was downright solid despite the injury to Mike Goodson.
Really, that's what the game came down to--ATM stayed out of Passing Downs better than ISU, and they converted Passing Downs MUCH better.
I'm going to assume the only reason ISU's RBs had only 22 carries instead of 32 or 42 is because the 'Clones were trailing by double digits by mid-Q2. Otherwise it makes no sense.

SB Nation - Ernie Pierce

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

Big 12 'BTBS' Box Scores

Colorado (0)

Mizzou (58)

Okla St (24)

Texas (28)

Tex Tech (63)

Kansas (21)

Oklahoma (58)

K-State (35)

Baylor (20)

Nebraska (32)

Tex A&M (49)

Iowa St (35)