SB Nation - Lamark Brown

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

A Random Q&A About Kansas State Determines I Don't Miss The Hate THAT Much!

Jon Johnston — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:10:19 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

And you may ask yourself How do I work this? And you may ask yourself Where is that large automobile? And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful house! And you may tell yourself This is not my beautiful wife! And then you may say to yourself My God! What have I done?

Browse more photos »

If you're looking for information on the Kansas State Wildcats, go no further than the site Bring on the Cats where TB is in charge. Mike came up with some reasonable football questions for him, while I asked him more existential questions about the state of things at Kansas State.

Mike: When did you realize that Kansas State realistically could contend for a Big XII North title this season?

TB: After the Colorado game. The results of the Texas Tech and Texas A&M games were too wild to really predict what was going on, and the win over Iowa State was so close that it wasn't particularly uplifting. But after we shut down Colorado and won even without a very good offensive effort, moving the conference record to 3-1 on the same day Nebraska lost to Iowa State, Mizzou lost to Texas, and KU lost to whomever it was they were playing, it started to click that hey, maybe we actually do have a shot at this thing.

Mike: I only saw some of the Missouri/Kansas State as I flipped from game to game. At the end of the game, Daniel Thomas was on the sideline even on the goal line. What was up with that?

TB: The game was in hand, so Bill Snyder probably wasn't going to risk an injury to his best player. Thomas has had a banged-up shoulder most of the season, and the coaches probably decided it wasn't worth it with Missouri so far ahead. We scored a touchdown on that drive, anyway, even if the officials didn't agree.

Mike: People are calling this K-State season "Miracle 2" as in the sequel to Bill Snyder's Miracle in Manhattan. Has Snyder done just that, pull a division contender out of thin air, or did Ron Prince leave a decent foundation after all?

TB: It can't be argued that Prince didn't recruit some talented players. Daniel Thomas, Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, and Attrail Snipes on offense are all fairly talented players. On defense, guys like Josh Moore, Jeffrey Fitzgerald and Tysyn Hartman are varying degrees of "solid." Prince never brought in top-of-the-line recruiting classes, and he filled them with way too many two-stars that he hoped would be diamonds in the rough, but he also brought in some athletes.

His biggest problem was that he never had anything resembling a decent coaching staff. The best assistant he ever had was Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay's current head coach), and he ran him off. The assistants we had the last two years had no business coaching on a Big 12 staff, and it showed. The results this year merely show what very good coaching can do.

CB/Jon J: Are most of the issues with KSU's Athletic Department straightened out? If not ,how long do you think the whole "Ron Prince secret contract rogue AD issue" will be haunting the university?

TB: Most of them are straightened out, because Bob Krause and Jon Wefald no longer work for K-State. There was a story in the paper this week noting that the Kansas Board of Regents, upon further investigation into the mess, found no wrongdoing on Bill Snyder's part.

The only thing that's left is how much money we'll end up paying Ron Prince. I'm not a betting man, but my guess is that case will end up settling out of court at some point. We are very happy with the current administration that is in place, with John Currie as athletic director and Kirk Schulz as university president.

CB/Jon J: Don't you miss the hatred we used to have between these teams?

TB: I have a feeling that if K-State manages a win this weekend, we'll see a lot of the hate come rushing back. I say that because I know Nebraska considered this division theirs to win this season, sort of like they do every season. If an old nemesis rises up and denies them that achievement, I foresee the old rivalry resurfacing rapidly.

Now, to answer the question, yes, I do miss it. Not because I necessarily love to hate Nebraska, but because it meant K-State was good. Back when Nebraska fans really hated K-State, it was because we were winning a few division titles and beating the Huskers with some consistency. It's been frustrating (although eerily predictable) watching all that Husker hatred get refocused on Missouri the last few years. We'd love nothing more than to have you hate us, just because we know precisely what it would take for you to hate us again.

CB/Jon J: I miss the hate.... I do. But I guess I don't hate it THAT much! Thanks, TB!

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Nebraska

BracketCat — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:15:08 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-5 | 4-3) VS. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-3 | 4-2)

The Big 12 North Championship
Nebraska Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Neb.
Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009 - 6:45 PM CST

ESPN

After 11 weeks of strife and struggle, it comes down to this: One game separates us from either glory or disappointment.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Corn Nation.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (89 of 144, 970 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (51 catches, 657 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (228 carries, 1,166 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Josh Cherry (11 of 17 FG made)

Passing
Zac Lee (136 of 227, 1,692 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Niles Paul (29 catches, 567 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Roy Helu Jr. (167 carries, 962 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Ndamukong Suh (56 tackles, 13 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (31 | -8) > NU (57)

Passing Offense
NU (82) > K-State (105 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (75 | +3) > NU (77)

Scoring Offense
NU (68) > K-State (75 | -6)

Rushing Defense
NU (11) > K-State (23 | -3)

Pass Efficiency Defense
NU (3) > K-State (75 | -15)

Total Defense
NU (10) > K-State (47 | -4)

Scoring Defense
NU (3) > K-State (59 | -14)

Net Punting
K-State (73 | +4) > NU (100)

Punt Returns
NU (40) > K-State (47 | -3)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (6 | -2) > NU (44)

Turnover Margin
K-State (19 | -13) > NU (59)

Pass Defense
NU (26) > K-State (90 | -7)

Passing Efficiency
NU (68) > K-State (78 | -2)

Analysis

There's no shading the fact that the numbers really don't favor us in this matchup — especially in light of the Wildcats' poor performance last Saturday.

To secure a win, K-State will have to press its advantage in a few key areas: rushing offense (against the No. 3 rushing defense in the country, though), total offense (our record is pretty clear — when we don't score 20, we don't win, with KU being the rare exception), net punting (don't be afraid to play the field-position game), kickoff returns (we've got to spring Brandon Banks loose at least once, because against that defense, good field position will be critical to scoring points), and turnover margin (simply put, we cannot turn it over like we did last week — duh).

So as I see it, the recipe for victory is no turnovers, finding a way to score by opening up the playbook and creating plays on special teams. Oh, yeah, did I mention don't turn it over?

I'm going to go ahead and join the rest of the nation in predicting a comfortable Nebraska win, in order to reclaim some of that reverse-jinx magic I had earlier in the season. We'll need all the help we can get, unfortunately.

At this point, though, I really don't care if we win or lose. Either way, it has been a successful season. I just want to see this team leave nothing on the field. This could be the end of their season — I want to see them play like it. And if Nebraska is to win, I want them to know they were in a dogfight first.

Prediction: Nebraska 21, Kansas State 8 (that's a safety and two field goals, BTW)

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

The weekend kicked off in weird fashion with a turnover-plagued and mistake-filled exhibition of crap last night on ESPN, as Oklahoma State disinterestedly survived Colorado 31-28 at home.

Look for more of the same this weekend, as ours is the only game of real consequence.

Oklahoma and Texas Tech are playing for bowl position, and I'm not sure that will be enough for the normally mighty Sooners to avoid being upset in a city they have lost in before.

Iowa State at Missouri and Kansas at Texas both figure to be ho-hum wins by probably the most talented teams in their respective divisions.

That leaves Baylor at Texas A&M, the battle for the Big 12 South basement. Oh, yeah, give me some of that.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (FSN)
Red Raiders 20, Sooners 19

Iowa State at Missouri
Tigers 31, Cyclones 22

Baylor at Texas A&M
Aggies 31, Bears 27

Kansas at #3 Texas (ABC)
Longhorns 29, Jayhawks 6

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Postgame Reaction: Missouri

TB — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:54:16 -0000

by Charlie Riedel - AP

K-State's Daniel Thomas couldn't shake free very often, and Missouri downed the Wildcats to put a damper on K-State's bowl hopes. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

View full size photo »

Sorry this is late, and for the fact that it's going to be fairly short. It's been a busy time for the BOTC administration.

K-State's 38-12 loss to Missouri was disappointing for a number of reasons. Obviously, we lost a chance to get bowl eligible, and we lost a chance to win the North without beating Nebraska in Lincoln (of course, Nebraska took that chance away a few hours later by beating KU, but still).

More disappointing than those problems, however, was the way we lost the game. The offensive game plan for Missouri was, if not perplexingly simple, then perplexingly rigid. Our offensive identity is to line up, run the ball with Daniel Thomas, and occasionally find Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes and Lamark Brown on short, controlled routes. That's fine, but it was clear from the beginning yesterday that Missouri -- a pretty good defense against the run -- was going to sell out to stop Daniel Thomas. On top of that, the Tigers looked vulnerable to screens and other short passes last week against Baylor and, looking at their defensive alignment on most plays yesterday, would have been vulnerable to them again this week. In fact, we had some success early in the game with swing passes to Banks, et al., but it seemed like once we threw a couple of those, we had to hurry back to the rushing game that only averaged 2.6 yards per carry on the game.

It was also frustrating to see the offense unable to finish drives. Three of Josh Cherry's field goals came on drives that got into the red zone. Against a team with the offensive talent Missouri has, three points won't cut it. Again, we were overly reliant on the running game, which was frustrating because we could have dinked-and-dunked our way to more success.

And all that's to say nothing of the elephant in the room: Banks' fumble in the second quarter. It should have been a perfect play. Banks catches a pass on third and four for a seven yard gain to Missouri's one yard line. If he goes out of bounds, we have the ball at the one yard line, and we can line up with two tight ends, Braden Wilson, and Daniel Thomas three times and we probably put six on the board to take a 10-3 lead. But Banks, trying to make a play, reaches the ball out and fumbles it into and out of the end zone for a Missouri touchback. Missouri, particularly Danario Alexander, were more than happy to take the ball down and score a touchdown, and instead of leading by seven, the Cats trailed by seven.

Speaking of Alexander, what a game. It's frustrating that our tackling fundamentals broke down a couple times and he turned pedestrian plays into big gains. It's frustrating that Tysyn Hartman missed what could have been an interception on Alexander's first touchdown (although, really, you have to give him credit, that was a helluva catch). But, overall the defense wasn't that bad. I know the final numbers don't look that great, but when the game was still in question, which was basically all the way until Alexander broke the 80 yarder to make it 24-12, the defense mostly did what it needed to do to keep us in the game. Despite a shaky first drive, it stiffened and forced a Mizzou FG. It forced a big three-and-out deep in Mizzou's territory on the Tigers' second drive, setting up what should have been a touchdown drive. They forced another three-and-out on Mizzou's second drive of the second quarter. They forced another three-and-out on Mizzou's first drive of the second half. That should have been enough for our offense to put more points on the board and either take a lead or tie it up.

That's all I have for the game itself. Hit the jump for a few thoughts going into next week.

While Nebraska is nothing special on offense, I still don't have a very good feeling going into this game in Lincoln next week. Our offensive game plan this week didn't take advantage of Missouri's weakness, and our defense was unable to force a turnover. If that happens next weekend in Lincoln, we'll lose, plain and simple. Against Nebraska, it's going to be very easy to figure out early whether we will have a chance to win or not. If we turn the ball over, we're done. If Banks doesn't get a chance/can't break a kick for a big play or a touchdown, we're done. If we let Roy Helu run wild on us, we're done.

On the other hand, if we force a few turnovers by Zac Lee and the Husker offense, or get a big three-and-out deep in NU's territory to flip the field position, or if Bill Snyder and the offensive coaching staff have a few tricks up their sleeve for the Huskers, we may just sneak into Lincoln and come away with a win. You can never just count on getting a win in Lincoln -- unless you're Texas -- but if nothing else, it's good to know that we're not going up there just hoping not to lose by 40.

So, ladies and gentlemen, after eleven games, it all comes down to this. We go to Lincoln on Saturday and one of two things will happen. Either we'll win, in which case we would collect our fourth outright Big 12 North championship and become bowl eligible, or we'll lose, in which case the season is over. While I don't really like our chances, Nebraska is not the unbeatable juggernaut it used to be, and as we have been saying the last few years about the Big 12 CCG: even if you're a big underdog, the favorite still has to play 60 minutes of football against you, and anything can happen.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Missouri

BracketCat — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:30:13 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (6-4 | 4-2) VS. Missouri Tigers (5-4 | 1-4)

Senior Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 14, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock M Nation — unofficial second home of the temporarily suspended Unholy Alliance.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (68 of 114, 731 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (43 catches, 529 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (205 carries, 1,087 yards, 11 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (51 tackles, 1 TFL, 3 INT, 2 FR)

Passing
Blaine Gabbert (181 of 314, 2,364 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Danario Alexander (71 catches, 1,038 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Derrick Washington (140 carries, 562 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Sean Weatherspoon (84 tackles, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (23 | +9) > MU (102)

Passing Offense
MU (21) > K-State (106 | -4)

Total Offense
MU (56) > K-State (78 | -3)

Scoring Offense
MU (57) > K-State (69 | -11)

Rushing Defense
MU (17) > K-State (20 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (60 | +3) > MU (63)

Total Defense
K-State (43) > MU (45)

Scoring Defense
K-State (45 | +14) > MU (63)

Net Punting
MU (7) > K-State (77 | +10)

Punt Returns
K-State (44 | -1) > MU (49)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (4 | +1) > MU (103)

Turnover Margin
K-State (6 | +8) > MU (69)

Pass Defense
K-State (83 | -2) > MU (89)

Passing Efficiency
MU (49) > K-State (76 | -6)

Analysis

Second verse, same as the first. If you covered up the numbers and just listed them as "Team A" and "Team B," you would see very little statistical difference between Kansas and Missouri. They're both spread teams who are good at passing the ball and defending the pass (likely because they see it every day in practice), but they both also suck at running the ball or stopping the run.

And just like last week, I say to throw out the stats. I think Mizzou will come in with their backs against the wall and give us everything we want in the first half. Blaine Gabbert isn't nearly as turnover-prone as Todd Reesing, so we're going to have to win this the old-fashioned way: D-Train left, D-Train right, D-Train up the middle.

One thing's for sure: If we lead at halftime, it's over. Missouri hasn't scored a TD in the second half of any of its conference games and Bill Snyder has a prodigious record when leading at the half, especially at home.

Furthermore, Bill Snyder is undefeated against Missouri at home in November and undefeated against Gary Pinkel. Things are unraveling in Columbia, and I don't think this is the best place for them to try and put it all back together.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Missouri 25

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

We're keeping it all in the divisions this week, and the pecking order in both the North and the South should become a lot clearer after Saturday's games.

In general, I like the home teams, except in the case of rapidly fading Kansas and outmatched Baylor. Whaddaya know? The two traditional Big 12 bottom-feeders, unable to defend their home turf? Just like old times, says I.

#2 Texas at Baylor (FSN)
Longhorns 28, Bears 10

Colorado at Iowa State
Cyclones 35, Buffaloes 28

Nebraska at Kansas (ABC)
Cornhuskers 25, Jayhawks 22

Texas A&M at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 28, Aggies 18

Texas Tech at #17 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Cowboys 22, Red Raiders 16

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Kansas

BracketCat — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 | 3-2) VS. Kansas Jayhawks (5-3 | 1-3)

The Sunflower Showdown
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

VERSUS

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Rock Chalk Talk — but I don't recommend it. They have diseases over there.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (61 of 98, 665 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (42 catches, 524 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (181 carries, 902 yards, 10 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (29 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 2 FF, 2 FR)

Passing
Todd Reesing (205 of 320, 2,385 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT)

Receiving
Kerry Meier (65 catches, 666 yards, 6 TD)

Rushing
Toben Opurum (114 carries, 491 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Dezmon Briscoe (54 catches, 841 yards, 5 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (32 | -7) > KU (76)

Passing Offense
KU (7) > K-State (102 | +2)

Total Offense
KU (11) > K-State (75 | -1)

Scoring Offense
KU (19) > K-State (58 | +6)

Rushing Defense
KU (14) > K-State (24 | -5)

Pass Efficiency Defense
KU (56) > K-State (63 | -12)

Total Defense
K-State (43 | -4) > KU (47)

Scoring Defense
K-State (59 | -13) > KU (71)

Net Punting
KU (85) > K-State (87 | +5)

Punt Returns
K-State (43 | -1) > KU (85)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5) > KU (87)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14) > KU (57)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -7) > KU (100)

Passing Efficiency
KU (35) > K-State (70 | -3)

Analysis

See all those pretty numbers above? This may be the only time you hear this from a stats guy like me, so enjoy it:

Throw 'em out the window. They don't mean jack.

Nothing would surprise me in this game. Not another 12-3 slugfest, not K-State passing for 300 yards, not Sharp rumbling for 200 again (well, that would be a little surprising).

Both teams want this one and it will be a war. Mark that down.

I will say this: KU, like OU, is rated ahead of us in most categories, which you should take with a grain of salt because of the weak non-conference competition. As the Jayhawks get further into the conference season, those numbers have continued to plummet.

But unlike OU, KU is worse than K-State in four key areas, by a significant margin: total defense, scoring defense, punt returns and pass defense. And we're at home, in front of a near-sellout crowd, with a legend on the sidelines. I'm just sayin'...

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Kansas 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, David Garrett, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Texas rolls in a laugher and suddenly dominant Texas A&M should cruise in high altitude.

Mizzou will get more fight from the hibernating Bears than they might expect, but that has more to do with Gary Pinkel's crappy halftime adjustments than anything else.

Iowa State is a hot upset pick, but I think T. Boone's boys will get it done. "Win one for the Dezzer!"

And that leaves the rumble in Memorial Stadium. If the over for this game was 400 cumulative yards for both teams, I might be tempted to bet the under. Should be fun.

UCF at #2 Texas (FSN)
Longhorns 33, Golden Knights 7

Texas A&M at Colorado
Aggies 32, Buffaloes 27

Baylor at Missouri
Tigers 34, Bears 23

#18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State (ABC)
Cowboys 26, Cyclones 21

#20 Oklahoma at Nebraska (ABC)
Sooners 20, Cornhuskers 19

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Oklahoma

BracketCat — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:45:15 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (5-3 | 3-1) VS. No. 22 Oklahoma Sooners (4-3 | 2-1)

The Norman Conquest
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Norman, Okla.
Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009 - 6 PM CST

FSN

A tough task awaits this week. By statistical fluke, we actually possess a better overall and Big 12 record than the Oklahoma Sooners, but we're going to have to play a solid — and lucky — game to keep it that way Saturday night.

The Sooners have forced at least two turnovers in each game this season and have forced at least three four times. And Bob Stoops has only lost two home games during his entire tenure at OU — and neither of them were to North teams.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see Crimson And Cream Machine.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (42 of 68, 491 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (33 catches, 368 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (165 carries, 814 yards, 9 TD)

Wild Card
Emmanuel Lamur (41 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 INT, 1 FR)

Passing
Landry Jones (117 of 192, 1,363 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Broyles (36 catches, 500 yards, 8 TD)

Rushing
Chris Brown (105 carries, 427 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
DeMarco Murray (84 catches, 403 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (25 | +8) > OU (65)

Passing Offense
OU (20) > K-State (104 | -9)

Total Offense
OU (29) > K-State (74 | -5)

Scoring Offense
OU (24) > K-State (64 | -6)

Rushing Defense
OU (3) > K-State (19 | +7)

Pass Efficiency Defense
OU (12) > K-State (51 | +17)

Total Defense
OU (6) > K-State (39 | +8)

Scoring Defense
OU (2) > K-State (46 | +17)

Net Punting
OU (24) > K-State (92 | -3)

Punt Returns
OU (13) > K-State (42 | -11)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (5 | +2) > OU (76)

Turnover Margin
K-State (14 | +10) > OU (26)

Pass Defense
OU (36) > K-State (74 | +7)

Passing Efficiency
OU (40) > K-State (67 | -12)

Analysis

Well, as much as I hate to admit it, Oklahoma clearly outclasses us in most categories, despite not being a particularly impressive team on offense or special teams. Our one distinct advantage is in running the ball, something the Sooners seemed to have abandoned trying altogether. Unfortunately, it will be strength against strength, because Daniel Thomas will have to run straight into the teeth of the Oklahoma run defense, led by Gerald McCoy.

On offense, Oklahoma isn't particularly proficient at passing, either, but they're passably decent and Ryan Broyles is a deadly threat every time he catches the ball, just like Brandon Banks. I think our secondary will do a decent job on them, but Landry Jones is a pretty decent quarterback — he just has crappy receivers who can't catch the ball. If our offense doesn't do its part to keep theirs off the field, it will end up being a long day, most likely.

That leaves the onus on special teams. We absolutely have to break a big play for a touchdown, and maybe two — whether on kick returns, punt returns or punt blocks. I don't see any other way to keep up with OU's offense given our own ineptitude in the passing game of late.

As usual, field position and turnovers will be key, because we will need to play the same keep-away game we've honed all season. I'm worried, since Oklahoma has a significant advantage in both net punting and punt returns, and isn't far behind us in turnover margin.

On paper, this is the second-worst matchup of the season. But games aren't played on paper. I'm optimistic enough to say the Cats will play well enough defensively, in what should be a fairly defensive game, to beat the 25-point spread.

Beating the Sooners, on the other hand, is a trickier proposition. It will require turnovers, big plays from Brandon Banks, some big-time open-field runs from Daniel Thomas and a superb passing day from Grant Gregory, as well as a ton of luck. I just don't see it happening.

As usual, we will need to score at least 20 points to secure the win, as we have done in all five previous victories. But that might not even be enough to escape Norman with a W.

Prediction: Oklahoma 29, Kansas State 17

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Nothing has been as predicted this season, so while I am sure everyone expects Nebraska to get out of Waco with a win while scoring only 10 points, I'm going to go ahead and say it will be more of a shootout than that. It's just been that kind of year.

Likewise, everyone thinks Kansas at Texas Tech will be a shootout... so I'm expecting a defensive struggle.

I think Mizzou and Texas A&M barely will squeak out wins, but would either Colorado or Iowa State winning surprise you all that much?

And in the big game, I expect Texas to survive their biggest challenge after learning from last year's debacle in Lubbock. Oklahoma State has lost too many pieces they expected to have to pull this off.

Nebraska at Baylor (Versus)
Huskers 30, Bears 25

Missouri at Colorado (FSN)
Tigers 30, Buffaloes 28

Kansas at Texas Tech (ABC)
Red Raiders 25, Jayhawks 21

Iowa State at Texas A&M
Aggies 27, Cyclones 26

#3 Texas at #13 Oklahoma State (ABC)
Longhorns 17, Cowboys 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.

Can The Wildcats Handle OU’s Defensive Front? A Conversation With Bring On The Cats

ccmachine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:25:30 -0000

As we inch closer to Saturday night's kickoff we've invited TB from SBN's Kansas State blog, Bring On The Cats, to visit with us about the 2009 Wildcats and their match-up with our Sooners. I also did a Q&A with BOTC that should be posted sometime in the near future so make sure to check them out to get the Sooner perspective of this conversation.

CC Machine: Other than the lopsided loss to Texas Tech Big 12 conference play has been good to the Wildcats. How has this team improved since losing back-to-back road games to Louisiana Lafayette and UCLA?

TB: The biggest change has been on offense. In the first conference game, Grant Gregory started at quarterback in place of Carson Coffman. He sparked the offense by keeping plays alive with his feet, absorbing contact on the option and quarterback draws, and by finding receivers downfield occasionally for big plays. With all due respect to Carson Coffman, he has provided the offense with an added dimension.

That's in the micro sense, of course. In the macro sense, the entire team has improved over time. Obviously, we installed an entirely new offensive system, and it took those guys a while to pick it up. Having defensive coaches who could actually, you know, coach was a new thing, too, and the defense has had a few growing pains. But the improvement is mostly due to the old Bill Snyder mantra: keep chopping wood and you'll get a little better every day.

CC Machine: With the Wildcats sitting on top of the North and a 5-3 record are KSU fans, for the most part, optimistic or pessimistic right now?

TB: For the most part, I would say very cautiously optimistic. It's hard to be too pessimistic when you've won two in a row and lead the division by a full game, but I think most fans realize there's a lot of work left to do. While I throw the "cautiously" qualifier in there, it still galls a lot of K-State fans that some outlets are treating this as just a nice little story, sure to fade as the Wildcats enter the four-game "gauntlet" to finish the season and inevitably come crashing back to earth. Maybe that will happen, but at this point, you can't say it's any more likely for K-State than for KU, Missouri or Nebraska.

CC Machine: K-State has given up 16 sacks going into the game against OU. How much does that stat scare you as the Wildcats prepare to face Oklahoma's defensive front?

TB: It's as scary as haunted houses were to me when I saw a kid, and I was a really big scaredy-cat as a kid. The biggest problem in the Colorado game, when our offense stagnated in the second half, was the fact that Gregory couldn't drop back, survey the field, and find an open man. Before he could even complete his drop, he had to look down to see which DL had shrugged his block and was already in his face. If we can't establish a running game to slow the OU pass rush, we are toast. Well, we're probably toast anyway, but we'll be extraordinarily burnt toast if we can't slow down the pass rush.

CC Machine: Brandon Banks has been exceptional in the return game. Tell us about some other KSU players that we should be aware of before Saturday night's game.

TB: At running back, Daniel Thomas is a guy to keep an eye on. He is playing hurt right now with a banged-up shoulder, but ran for 145 yards on 20 carries against a CU team that decimated the Texas and KU running attacks prior to meeting K-State. He doesn't break a lot of big plays, but he's big, he's strong, and he finds the crease.

At wide receiver, Lamark Brown will be hard to stop if our line can ever give Gregory time to find him. He's huge, so he has a size advantage on most DBs, and he's fast enough to outrun a lot of DBs. He hasn't gotten open a lot this year, which leads me to believe he may not be running the best routes, but if he ever goes off, he's really going to go off.

On defense, Jeffrey Fitzgerald gets things going on the DL. In the last two games, we've tallied 10 sacks, and that is after only recording six through the first six games. Something seems to be clicking with this crew, and Fitzgerald is the best of the bunch.

CC Machine: KSU's offensive strength is their rushing attack (2^nd in the Big 12/186.5 ypg) and Oklahoma's defensive strength is stopping the run (2^nd in the Big 12/70.1 ypg). How do you see this playing out, for or against, the Wildcats on Saturday night?

TB: It's absolutely crucial that we be able to run the ball. If OU can stop the run without putting eight guys in the box, we're toast. Gregory is a solid quarterback, but nobody is confusing his passing ability with that of Josh Freeman. If he has defenders in his face and the OU secondary blanketing the field, we're in for a lot of three-and-outs.

CC Machine: What gives you the most confidence heading into this game?

TB: Mostly the fact that this team is clearly getting better every week. Confidence is at an all-time high right now after a blowout over Texas A&M and a solid beating of Colorado. We knew this coaching staff would install schemes that work, but until the players see the results, they will never get to their full potential. If they keep working hard, getting better, and executing what the coaches teach them, they're going to achieve goals beyond their wildest imaginations. That almost assuredly won't include a win over OU, but we knew this process wasn't going to have us competing with OU in less than a year.

Ha! Scaredy-cat, I get it!

KICKING THE TIRES: The University of Colorado

BracketCat — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:00:19 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (4-3 | 2-1) VS. Colorado Buffaloes (2-4 | 1-1)

Homecoming
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009 - 11:30 AM CST

FCS

Flush off an upset victory over the overrated Kansas Jayhawks, the Buffaloes storm into town looking to tie us for first place in the Big 12 North.

Click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis. For more detailed information, see The Ralphie Report.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Grant Gregory (33 of 50, 411 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (30 catches, 354 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (145 carries, 669 yards, 8 TD)

Wild Card
Jeffrey Fitzgerald (22 tackles, 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 2 FR, 2 FF)

Passing
Tyler Hansen (17 of 30, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT)

Receiving
Scotty McKnight (35 catches, 370 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Rodney Stewart (104 carries, 418 yards, 5 TD)

Wild Card
Riar Geer (25 catches, 284 yards, 3 TD)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (33 | +5) > CU (108)

Passing Offense
CU (61) > K-State (95 | -4)

Total Offense
K-State (69 | +6) > CU (103)

Scoring Offense
K-State (58 | +41) > CU (78)

Rushing Defense
K-State (26 | +24) > CU (66)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (68 | +16) > CU (102)

Total Defense
K-State (47 | +6) > CU (96)

Scoring Defense
K-State (63 | +3) > CU (100)

Net Punting
K-State (89 | +3) > CU (114)

Punt Returns
K-State (31 | -3) > CU (107)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (7 | +16) > CU (26)

Turnover Margin
K-State (24 | +37) > CU (77)

Pass Defense
K-State (81 | -16) > CU (105)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (55 | +16) > CU (109)

Analysis

Last week, there was a whole lotta red. This week, it's all about the green, baby.

On paper, we should dominate Colorado. Yes, their performance last week was impressive from an emotional standpoint, but as Kevin Romary once said, by this time in the season, "ya are who ya are."

Colorado still can't run the ball with any consistency (108th in the nation). A quarterback change won't help that much — that problem is on the offensive line.

Tyler Hansen also will be hard-pressed to raise the Buffaloes' overall offensive numbers (103rd in the country), despite bringing more of a run threat to the table. That's because the Buffs still have the weakest set of wide receivers in the Big 12.

On defense, Colorado truly struggles to cover the pass (102nd in pass efficiency defense), which is instant death in most Big 12 games. Not so much against us, but something tells me Grant Gregory should have a solid outing regardless. Yes, Colorado generated pressure on Kansas for the first time all season, but I still think that was more about the Jayhawks' crappy interior OL than it was about Colorado's DL. Plus, Colorado has one of the least talented and least disciplined secondaries in the country — which you saw if you watched the second half, when Reesing lobbed jump ball after jump ball against them for huge gains.

Colorado's overall scoring defense isn't much better (100th).

In the field position, we also have a huge advantage, and it's not just because of Brandon Banks. At 114th in the nation, Colorado is the first team we have played all year that is worse than us in net punting. I didn't think that was possible, even though we have made incremental improvements each week.

On the flip side, the Buffaloes are 107th in punt returns. We could be playing a lot on the opponent's side of the 50 for the second straight week.

Finally, to complete the ignominy, Colorado is 105th in passing defense and 109th in passing efficiency.

Look, I know Buff fans are all excited about Hansen, and rightfully so, but Cody Hawkins didn't punt or play defense. Colorado is 2-4 for a reason, and I haven't seen that many sub-100 statistics since ... well, Ron Prince's team last year. But even Prince's teams were better on offense than Colorado has been.

Don't read too much into the rushing defense performances against Texas and Kansas, either. Both teams look to throw first, throw second and then maybe run third. Both got behind early and threw to catch up. Both have suffered injuries to their starting running backs this season, and Texas had an injured backup, too. Neither team has Daniel Thomas.

The more I examine this matchup, the harder it is for me to envision Colorado winning. Hell, the one category the Buffs outclass us in — passing offense (they are 61st; we're 95th) — isn't even really an advantage, because they chose to make themselves a one-dimensional passing team and ride Cody Hawkins' arm, for some reason. Passing offense measures pure yardage, but a much better measure of pure passing power is passing efficiency, or yards per throw/catch. We're 55th and they're 109th. Gregory is the most efficient quarterback in Big 12 play so far.

And I haven't even talked about intangibles yet. We're 3-0 at home (and should have at least 45,000 fans there tomorrow), 2-0 in day games and 2-0 on FCS (not that that really means anything). And we have the best coach in America.

I'm not trying to slight Buffs. To pull off the win last week like they did and give themselves even a shred of hope after the terrible start they endured is impressive and commendable. But they're still not a great team. We're not a great team, either, but even through our early struggles we have looked better in all phases of the game than Colorado has. We're better coached, have better athletes across the board and are playing at home. There is no excuse to lose this game, and if we do, our season pretty much is over.

Key stats to watch for: We need to jump on them early and score at least three touchdowns in the game. K-State is 3-0 when leading after halftime (and 3-0 when leading after the third quarter) and 4-0 when scoring 20 or more points. Stifling the Buffs on defense will help, too; we're 2-0 when allowing 10 points or less (and 74-0 since 1990). Most important, we must protect the ball (duh). K-State is 2-0 when we don't turn it over.

Factor in that we have yet to run back a punt or block a punt and probably are due, and I think it could end up being a long day for the Buffs if all goes well.

Like I said, on paper, we should win. But games aren't played on paper. That 11:30 a.m. start continues to worry me, as does our inconsistency this season. But the Buffaloes' upset of Kansas had to be emotionally draining, and this will be a taxing road trip for them. At some point, you just gotta have faith in Bill Snyder. I'm picking it close, but if we turned the corner I think we did last week, it could end up ugly.

Prediction: Kansas State 31, Colorado 26

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Grant Gregory
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Lamark Brown, Attrail Snipes**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Daniel Calvin, Antonio Felder, Jeffrey Fitzgerald
LB: John Houlik, Ulla Pomele
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman, Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Oklahoma State won in College Station, so they shouldn't have too many problems in Waco, either.

I know Nebraska is having an identity crisis right now, but Memorial Stadium is an exceedingly tough place to play (and coach). I suspect Iowa State used up all of its good luck karma against KU and K-State, and still didn't get the job done. The Huskers will get right tomorrow.

I know I said yesterday that OU will win, and I still believe that to be the case. But this is the first of OU's challenging "L" games (Lawrence, Lubbock, Lincoln), and I just can't shake that ugly feeling I had in 2007 that KU might find a way to win. At any rate, I'm picking the Hawks solely to jinx them, so don't read too much into it.

Everyone is predicting a huge blowout in Lubbock, but wouldn't it just be like the Aggies to find a way to win that game? I don't think they will, but if they have any pride left, it might be closer than most think.

Longhorns will get it done. I'm not impressed by Missouri at all and I'm starting to think they actually might have the worst coach in the North, not Colorado. Yeeouch.

#14 Oklahoma State at Baylor (Versus)
Cowboys 29, Bears 23

Iowa State at Nebraska (FSN)
Cornhuskers 30, Cyclones 16

#25 Oklahoma at #24 Kansas (ABC)
Jayhawks 22, Sooners 21

Texas A&M at #21 Texas Tech
Red Raiders 35, Aggies 15

#3 Texas at Missouri (ABC)
Longhorns 23, Tigers 14

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.