SB Nation - Carson Coffman

KICKING THE TIRES: Season Review

BracketCat — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:15 -0000

K-State's season might be done, but there's still another week left in the Big 12 regular season — starting with that amazing shootout last night between the Aggies and the Longhorns. Plus, I thought this would be a good chance to look at our season-ending numbers, so click the jump for my usual statistical/opinionated analysis.

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
K-State (37 | -6)

Passing Offense
K-State (104 | +1)

Total Offense
K-State (80 | -5)

Scoring Offense
K-State (88 | -13)

Rushing Defense
K-State (19 | +4)

Pass Efficiency Defense
K-State (81 | -6)

Total Defense
K-State (41 | +6)

Scoring Defense
K-State (48 | +11)

Net Punting
K-State (64 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (45 | +2)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (8 | -2)

Turnover Margin
K-State (26 | -7)

Pass Defense
K-State (79 | +11)

Passing Efficiency
K-State (88 | -10)

Analysis

Granted, these aren't 100-percent final statistics because there still are games to be played, but they're close enough for our purposes: Evaluating the improvement (or perhaps lack thereof) from last year's team.

Rushing offense went from 80th in the country in 2008 to 37th in 2009. Clearly, Bill Snyder understood more than Ron Prince that running the ball is important. Having Daniel Thomas didn't hurt, either.

Passing offense tumbled from 19th to 104th. Some dropoff was to be expected with Josh Freeman leaving for the NFL, but not that much. That is a stat we desperately need to, and I believe will, improve dramatically if we are to compete for the North title in 2010.

Total offense fell from 38th to 80th. Again, in sore need of overall improvement, but especially in the passing game.

Scoring offense dropped from 21st to 88th. Same story, different statistic. And it was made even worse by our goal-line flubs in the last two weeks, but not punching it in once we penetrated the red zone was a bugaboo all season.

Rushing defense jumped from 114th to 19th. Our defensive coaching staff deserves a huge shout-out, because that simply is stellar and is more than I thought was possible with just one year. If you ever doubt the power of coaching, just reflect on that stat.

Pass efficiency defense climbed from 93rd to 81st. Some improvement, but we can do better. Clearly, the Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Missouri games didn't help us much here.

Total defense went from 114th to 41st. Way to go, Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning.

Scoring defense improved from a tie for 110th to 48th. Again, that's just remarkable improvement in just one year.

Net punting went from 108th to 64th. Ryan Doerr made a lot of difference this season.

Punt returns dropped from 33rd to 45th. This is one area I'd like to see improve next year, and I think putting either John Hubert or Tramaine Thompson back there will help a lot.

Kickoff returns actually improved from 25th to eighth. Hard to expect any improvement from a Top 25 ranking, but we did it. God, we're going to miss Brandon Banks.

Turnover margin flipped from 109th to 26th. If you're looking for a single stat that explains the turnaround from Big 12 cellar to North contention, this is it. Granted, there only was a one-game improvement in the win-loss record, but this is one case where that record does not tell the whole story. Turnover margin is not really something you can control, because luck plays a huge role in it, but a team that does all the little things right usually will find the ball bouncing its way more often than not. The 2009 Cats certainly did.

Pass defense went from 97th to 79th. Again, marginal improvement, but more should be expected in 2010.

Passing efficiency fell from 41st to 88th. Gotta work on that.

And now for a few bonus stats. First, sacks stayed about the same, from a tie for 85th in 2008 to 80th in 2009. Still, that speaks to some improvement given that we basically were without Brandon Harold for the whole year and had to field a defensive line assembled from equal parts Jeffrey Fitzgerald, converted offensive players, spit, glue and prayer.

Tackles for loss, meanwhile, dropped from a tie for 53rd to 82nd. That's a bit depressing, and it speaks to the inability to generate a consistent push all year. It's only going to get fixed with better recruiting and time, unfortunately.

Even worse, sacks allowed decreased from 30th to 72nd. Although the offensive line generally seemed to play better this year, this stat was not a good thing. Part of it is because Freeman was so damn hard to bring down and he did a good job of getting rid of the ball most of the time, and thus part of the blame lies at the feet of Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory. But the line still has room for dramatic improvement, and I trust that Charlie Dickey eventually will get them there.

Where does this leave us heading into 2010? Well, many things have to shake out in recruiting and player development before I start projecting too far forward, but I do want to say something about the coaching staff, since there's a chance we could see a few changes in spots. (Indeed, Mike Kent already has departed as strength coach, so it's clear Snyder is willing to let some people leave if he doesn't perceive that they performed up to his standards.)

I'd really hate to see any of the defensive coaches leave, as that unit's massive improvement speaks for itself. But I can't say the same for the offensive staff. There were times that I found the offensive play-calling this season downright mind-boggling, and if Del Miller chose to gracefully ride into retirement and give way to someone like Chuck Long or Jonathan Beasley, I don't think I would shed a tear.

Also, I saw very little, if any, improvement from the wide receivers this year. Michael Smith better continue to butter his bread with recruiting, because I really don't think he cuts the mustard as a position coach. I felt that way when he was rehired, and I really didn't see anything to change my mind all year.

Tight ends were an enigma because we never threw to them, and I don't think you can give much credit for Thomas' performance to any single coach because DT simply is a natural. Basically, Dickey is the only offensive coach who could make me cry by departing. Everyone else is fair game if Snyder wants them to be.

BracketCat's Way-Too-Early Projected Starters for Next Year

QB: Sammuel Lamur
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Lamark Brown, Brodrick Smith, Tramaine Thompson**
TE: Travis Tannahill
OL: Zach Hanson, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Prizell Brown, Adam Davis, Brandon Harold, Ray Kibble
LB: Antonio Felder, Kadero Terrell
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Tysyn Hartman (get well!), Emmanuel Lamur, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Obviously, Colt McCoy put himself right in the thick of the Heisman race with last night's inspired performance, and Texas survived Texas A&M's upset bid, 49-39.

For those keeping score, Texas is in overdrive of late, having scored 100 points in its last two games.

More of the same might be on tap throughout the week. Although Nebraska's defense is stout, the Colorado-Nebraska has a history of being a pretty high-scoring affair. Not to mention the recent news of Hawk's reincarnation, which I suppose might reinvigorate his team somewhat.

Oklahoma's defense is in disarray, with Oklahoma State's balanced offense coming into town — but Oklahoma's offense has played extremely well at home this season.

And absolutely no one will be surprised if the Border War turns into a defenseless shootout and Texas Tech puts up 50 on Baylor in Jerryworld.

So, this week could end up looking like a throwback to last season's shenanigans before it's all said and done.

Nebraska at Colorado (ABC)
Cornhuskers 31, Buffaloes 20

#11 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (FSN)
Sooners 19, Cowboys 18

Missouri vs. Kansas (in Kansas City) (ABC)
Tigers 29, Jayhawks 24

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (in Arlington) (FSN)
Red Raiders 33, Bears 21

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State wide receiver Brandon Banks runs into the end zone to score a touchdown during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Tennessee Tech on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

The Big 12 North leader versus a team still scrapping for bowl eligibility. That's what we expected from this game at the beginning of the season, right?

I'm not going to lie: it is probably a complete waste of time to try to apply statistics to explain Kansas State. Stats HATE K-State. Even though my projections saw good things coming from KSU this year (damn straight I'm pounding my chest on that one), they have lived up to expectations in the most underwhelming way imaginable. Their offense has been great and atrocious. Their defense has been a sieve and a brick wall. They have won and lost games because of special teams. Based on both teams' play this season, the projections have actually moved from "K-State by 0.5" in the preseason to "Missouri by 7.2" despite K-State's current 4-2 conference record (and Missouri's 1-4 record).

In other words, neither I nor my stats have any freaking clue what is going to happen Saturday morning. It's important to be honest, no?

Offense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Two good players (one of whom is a much better return man than receiver) and a quarterback whose main job is simply not to make a devastating error. That pretty much describes KSU's offense at this point. Here is the main BTBS data table, to be followed by a "Non-conference vs conference play" look at things, since it's pretty obvious that KSU has improved considerably in the last 4-6 weeks.

K-State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	KSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	91.2 (93)	104.7 (44)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	91.3 (99)	101.3 (53)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	92.6 (88)	109.3 (44)

Rushing S&P+	94.6 (87)	105.5 (53)
Passing S&P+	86.1 (100)	102.7 (52)

Standard Downs S&P+	100.3 (74)	111.1 (37)
Passing Downs S&P+	89.1 (95)	103.3 (58)

Red Zone S&P+	104.9 (61)	105.9 (54)

Q1 S&P+	89.9 (92)	92.2 (79)
Q2 S&P+	110.8 (50)	129.9 (18)
Q3 S&P+	111.3 (54)	105.2 (51)
Q4 S&P+	88.0 (99)	113.3 (36)

1st Down S&P+	102.5 (67)	106.6 (52)
2nd Down S&P+	96.3 (77)	106.6 (51)
3rd Down S&P+	92.9 (88)	106.8 (51)

Line Yards+	106.0 (46)	97.3 (73)
Close Sack Rate+	76.6 (94)	89.6 (79)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	91.3 (76) / 66.7 (104)	111.9 (46) / 113.3 (49)

Looking at the numbers like this, you get the impression that KSU isn't capable of scoring at all. Of course, let's break things out into non-conference vs conference play...

Analysis after the jump.

KSU Offense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	75.9	101.4
Close SR+	84.1	96.1
Close PPP+	66.2	110.2

Rushing S&P+	77.7	105.9
Passing S&P+	74.2	94.0

Standard Downs S&P+	85.0	110.5
Passing Downs S&P+	75.0	98.5

Red Zone S&P+	82.2	120.0

Q1 S&P+	65.4	106.2
Q2 S&P+	93.6	122.3
Q3 S&P+	105.6	115.1
Q4 S&P+	83.9	90.7

Strangely, KSU's offense has improved by growing even more conservative than it already was. Grant Gregory took over the majority of the snaps starting with the Iowa State game, and while he has been far from amazing, he has played it safe, giving KSU's defense and special teams a chance to win the game. Aside from a false start against Texas Tech (he was sacked three times and replaced), Gregory has been a stabilizing influence that Carson Coffman was not, and that has made the biggest difference for KSU. Gregory's passer rating is almost exactly the same as Coffman's, but while he averages a yard fewer in terms of yards per attempt, he has also been less INT-prone. Plus, he's provided just enough of a rushing threat to take some heat off of Daniel Thomas.

When KSU Has the Ball...
KSU Rushing	Advantage: Push
KSU Passing	Slight Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Beginning of the half
Best Time for Missouri:	Later in the half

We'll once again start with the individual categories where Missouri has the rankings advantage. For the most part, we'll compare Mizzou's season averages to KSU's conference averages, though there are some pretty blurred lines here.

Close SR+
Passing S&P+
Passing Downs S&P+
Q2, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

And for KSU...

Red Zone S&P+
Q1, Q3 S&P+
Line Yards+

Looking at things in this way, you can see a path for success for both teams--Missouri's defense could succeed by being aggressive, sending the house on passing downs, and wearing KSU down as each half progresses. Meanwhile, if KSU's offensive line can get a good push and they can take advantage of their scoring opportunities, and if their offensive gameplan early on results in some points, they could easily score enough to win the game.

Quarterback

The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

Grant Gregory: 68-for-114 passing (59.6%), 731 yards (6.4 per pass), 4 TD, 2 INT; 77 carries, 254 yards, 3 TD
Carson Coffman: 71-for-117 passing (60.7%), 860 yards (7.4 per pass), 2 TD, 4 INT; 54 carries, 64 yards, 2 TD

As mentioned above, looking at basic passing stats, you really can't discern that big a difference between Gregory and Coffman. But with Gregory making fewer mistakes and showing the ability to scramble for first downs, there is simply no question that the KSU offense has been better with Gregory at the helm. Here's where people who hate stats will say that stats don't tell the story about who's the better quarterback, and it's all about leadership and intangibles. Well guess what: leadership and intangibles will still show up if you're looking at the right stats, and seeing that KSU's S&P+ ratings have increased across the board with Gregory behind center tells you what you need to know.

Running Back

Yeah, I completely whiffed on this part in the preseason preview. I wasn't sure if Daniel Thomas was going to be a quarterback or running back, so I managed to forget to mention him at either position.

Daniel Thomas: 205 carries, 1087 yards (5.3 per carry), 11 TD; 19 catches, 205 yards (10.8 per catch)
Keithen Valentine: 53 carries, 364 yards (6.9 per carry), 6 TD; 6 catches for 5 yards (0.8 per catch)
Jarell Childs: 13 carries, 79 yards (6.1 per carry)

If there is a true star on KSU's roster, it is very clearly Daniel Thomas, who has posted at least 90 rushing yards in each of KSU's six wins. In low-scoring wins over Colorado and Kansas, the Wildcats rode Thomas to 330 rushing yards on just 44 carries. It is pretty clear that when KSU gets a lead, they place the burden on Thomas to keep it. Of course, when they're behind, he's still carrying a large load. The only time he's gotten fewer than 19 touches in a game this year were in the blowout loss to Texas Tech and what started out as a blowout loss to Oklahoma (before KSU cut the gap considerably).

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

WR Brandon Banks: 43 catches, 529 yards (12.3 per catch), 1 TD (?)
WR Attrail Snipes: 22 catches, 339 yards (15.4 per catch), 2 TD
WR Lamark Brown: 13 catches, 171 yards (13.2 per catch), 2 TD

TE Jeron Mastrud: 21 catches, 233 yards (11.1 per catch), 1 TD

If KSU has any offensive acumen whatsoever on their coaching staff (and there's no reason to think they don't), and they have watched any film whatsoever from Mizzou's two bad defensive performances this year (Texas and Baylor), they will be throwing a bevy of sideline passes Brandon Banks' way. Banks has been rather inconsistent as a receiver this year. Here are his reception totals from Big 12 games: 4, 1, 6, 3, 9, 1. You have to figure, though, that he will be utilized as much as possible on Saturday, taking advantage of Missouri's apparent problem in tackling quick receivers like Baylor's Kendall Wright and Texas' Jordan Shipley. If they don't go to Banks on the short routes, it's hard to be too scared of the KSU passing attack. It has improved since Grant Gregory took over at QB, but it has still been below average overall, Banks' explosion against OU (9 catches, 156 yards) notwithstanding. It seems that defenses are going out of their way to deny Banks the ball whenever possible, and even though that has apparently led to better rushing lanes for Daniel Thomas, no other receiver has really stepped up to accept a large burden. Snipes, Brown, and Mastrud have all had their moments, but we'll just say that you can take your chances covering them one-on-one as long as you're accounting for Banks.

Offensive Line

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

The K-State offensive line has been decent in run blocking and average in pass blocking on Standard Downs, but it appears that they are vulnerable to blitzes, as they are one of the nation's worst at avoiding Passing Downs sacks. This opens up an opportunity for Mizzou to employ their Colorado strategy, sending a ton of guys (from a ton of different directions) on second- and third-and-long to try to get to Gregory.

We all know how Mizzou was torched against the pass last week, but one of the key matchups of the game could be who wins the run blocking battle. If Thomas is running through pretty big holes and Mizzou has to bring guys up to account for the run, then suddenly the pass becomes a viable weapon. But even though Nick Florence torched Missouri, on standard downs and passing downs alike, last week, KSU does not have the overall speed in the receiving corps that Baylor does, and if Mizzou is stopping the run, they will likely stop the pass too.

---

Defense

Kansas State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

K-State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	KSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	92.0 (84)	112.4 (41)
Close Success Rate+	93.2 (85)	106.1 (44)
Close PPP+	90.5 (77)	124.5 (35)

Rushing S&P+	99.7 (67)	98.1 (80)
Passing S&P+	85.8 (95)	124.8 (21)

Standard Downs S&P+	92.3 (92)	108.8 (48)
Passing Downs S&P+	95.9 (73)	115.2 (44)

Red Zone S&P+	77.0 (112)	76.4 (111)

Q1 S&P+	90.2 (84)	122.0 (40)
Q2 S&P+	85.5 (104)	109.9 (54)
Q3 S&P+	94.9 (76)	111.2 (55)
Q4 S&P+	103.7 (56)	102.1 (66)

1st Down S&P+	94.6 (77)	105.6 (53)
2nd Down S&P+	85.9 (104)	113.6 (44)
3rd Down S&P+	95.6 (80)	118.9 (35)

Line Yards+	93.7 (86)	94.8 (87)
Close Sack Rate+	68.3 (102)	136.8 (33)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	97.6 (60) / 82.0 (87)	210.9 (14) / 108.3 (57)

When Missouri Has the Ball...
Missouri Rushing	Advantage: KSU
Missouri Passing	Advantage: Mizzou
Best Time for KSU:	Second Half
Best Time for Missouri:	First Half

Once again, the first month of the season was a complete disaster statistically, and KSU has turned things around a bit in conference play. They have been great at times, holding Colorado and Kansas to a combined 16 points, while they've still struggled occasionally, giving up a combined 108 points to Texas Tech and Oklahoma...the same Texas Tech and Oklahoma held to a combined 34 points by Nebraska. It appears that gameplan is everything with KSU--if it works, it really works; if not, it really doesn't. That, or this is simply a speed thing. Fast offenses can move the ball, while more plodding attacks (and at this point, KU qualifies as plodding, strangely enough) cannot. In other words, Mizzou may yet again be relying on Danario Alexander to stretch the field like no other Mizzou player can.

KSU Defense "+" Game Scores: Non-Con vs Conference Play
Category	Non-Con	Conference
Close S&P+	77.8	101.5
Close SR+	82.9	100.0
Close PPP+	79.7	97.7

Rushing S&P+	100.8	99.0
Passing S&P+	80.4	89.4

Standard Downs S&P+	90.4	93.6
Passing Downs S&P+	86.8	101.9

Red Zone S&P+	62.8	86.5

Q1 S&P+	77.7	98.5
Q2 S&P+	63.4	100.2
Q3 S&P+	129.5	71.8
Q4 S&P+	134.2	83.3

MU's advantages:

Close S&P+, SR+, PPP+
Passing S&P+
Standard Downs, Passing Downs S&P+
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 S&P+
2nd, 3rd Down S&P+
Sack Rate+

KSU's advantages:

Red Zone S&P+
Line Yards+

The phrase "Bill Snyder defense" strikes fear in the heart of most fans of other Big 12 North schools, but even with improvement in conference play, the Wildcats' defense is still quite vulnerable. Mizzou holds the advantage in most categories, though KSU's two major advantages--in run blocking and the red zone--could work tremendously to their favor.

Defensive Line

Despite Brandon Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

DE Jeffrey Fitzgerald (Sr.): 24.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 PBU
DT Daniel Calvin (Sr.): 19.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU
DE Antonio Felder (Jr.): 18.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU, 1 QBH
DT Raphael Guidry (So.): 14.0 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR

Due to injury, Brandon Harold has had something of a lost season. He's played in one game and registered just one tackle. Lucky for him, Jeffrey Fitzgerald has been as good as advertised. He is far from an every-down attacker like Ndamukong Suh or Aldon Smith, but he picks his spots, averaging about one tackle-for-loss per game and showing the ability to be a strong, disruptive force once or twice a game as well. Basically, he's a bigger, more disruptive Brian Coulter (Coulter has 23.0 tackles in one fewer game).

Up front, Fitzgerald is more or less alone in terms of play-making. KSU's d-line hasn't been particularly adept at either stopping the run or rushing the passer even with Fitzgerald. And unfortunately for them, their two most productive players are seniors. There is plenty about which opposing fans can be wary regarding the K-State defense, but the line really is not much of a concern (knock on wood).

Linebackers

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

John Houlik (Sr.): 35.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 FR, 2 PBU
Ulla Pomele (Sr.): 34.0 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Troy Butler (Jr.): 33.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FR, 2 PBU
Alex Hrebec (So.): 25.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU
Kevin Rohleder (Jr.): 22.5 tackles

Four KSU linebackers have registered more tackles than their leading D-line tackler, Fitzgerald, showing that a) the main purpose of KSU's D-line is probably to free up the LBs, and b) the LB corps really is pretty solid. They are not tremendously disruptive, having only forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass (all of which came from John Houlik), but they make tackles. Plus, looking at the unit-by-unit breakdown here, it does appear that one of their major functions is a bit of bend-don't-break, making tackles and forcing teams to run as many plays as possible in the hopes that the secondary will eventually make a play. It has worked somewhat--just look at how many INTs the secondary has--but this front seven is not nearly as aggressive as what we're used to from a KSU defense. That is probably by necessity, of course; there is obviously not a ton of talent here (Ron Prince did recruit most of these players, after all), and credit goes to KSU's coaching staff for figuring out how best to utilize the talent on hand.

Secondary

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.
Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic.

CB Joshua Moore (Jr.): 42.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 1 FF, 10 PBU
SS Tysyn Hartman (So.): 41.5 tackles, 4 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR, 6 PBU
FS Emmanuel Lamur (So.): 41.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 INT, 2 FR, 2 PBU, 2 Blkd Kicks
CB David Garrett (Jr.): 21.0 tackles, 1 FF
CB Stephen Harrison (Jr.): 16.0 tackles, 8 PBU
CB Courtney Herndon (Sr.): 10.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 PBU

The secondary doesn't appear to me to be a tremendously deep unit, and it should be noted that a cornerback leading the secondary in tackles isn't the most encouraging thing in the world, but there's no question that Joshua Moore and the two sophomore safeties, Hartman and Lamur, are the best players on this defense. They are disruptive and active, and with a crafty coaching staff, this is a bit of a concern. If they can pick off a couple of Gabbert passes like Colorado did, that will buy their offense that much more time of possession and that many more Daniel Thomas carries. I'd say Mizzou's secondary receivers like Jared Perry, Jarrell Jackson and Wes Kemp could be huge factors against the cornerbacks not named Moore (assuming he'll be on Danario quite a bit), but I'm still miffed with them over last week's drops, so I'm not even going to hint that they could be an asset. They have to prove it to me again. I'm bitchy like that.

Special Teams

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Punt Returns Rank: 44th (Brandon Banks: 14 returns, 9.3 avg)
Net Punting Rank: 77th (Ryan Doerr: 35 punts, 40.7 avg)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 4th (Brandon Banks: 31 returns, 31.4 avg, 4 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 41st

Field Goals: 113th (Josh Cherry: 7-for-13, long: 47)
PATs: 100th (29-for-32)

For the love of all that is holy, DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO BRANDON BANKS. Employ the Marcus Herford strategy from the 2007 MU-KU game. Pop the ball up and give it to them at the 35-40 every time. I mean, a) that would still make them drive 60-65 yards to score (it's not a given that they can consistently do that), and b) it's better than seven easy points. Banks has just been insanely good in the return game this year. He is a decent punt return and just about the country's best kick returner. Last week we joked that kick returns would be Baylor's best offensive play (that ended up biting us, of course, when Baylor's offense provided plenty of great offensive plays), but this week it could actually be true. Do. Not. Kick. To. Brandon. Banks. Especially with the way Mizzou's kick coverage team played last week.

Beyond Banks, the special teams unit is...okay. Josh Cherry has rebounded from a disastrous start of the season. He missed five of his first six field goals on the season but has come around to make six of his last seven. He hasn't necessarily made a game-changing difference in any one game, but his two chip-shot field goals kept Colorado at arm's length, and the fact that he's made two 45+ yarders (against Texas A&M and Kansas) show that he is an infinitely more confident kicker than he was a couple of months ago.

Meanwhile, it is a shame that Missouri will likely be incapable of taking advantage of another KSU weakness, punt coverage. KSU is average in the punting game, but word is that Brandon Gerau will be returning punts instead of Carl Gettis, who has been dinged up for most of Big 12 play. Gerau is obviously reliable in cleanly fielding the kick, and obviously that's the most important thing, but he has yet to prove he is any sort of return weapon.

Special teams cost KSU the UCLA game and won them the Iowa State game. Their single most dangerous weapon is the kickoff return. If Mizzou can at least force a draw in the special teams battle, they put themselves in much better position to win.

---

Three Keys to the Game

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

In conference play, Missouri has given up just 77 rushing yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry. Looking at only running back stats (since typical college football stats stupidly include sacks), opposing running backs are averaging just 3.46 yards per carry in conference play, and if you take out Roy Helu's 41-yarder as time ran down at the end of the Nebraska game, it's 3.11 yards per carry. Baylor and Colorado running backs combined for 48 yards on 30 carries. Of all the problems Missouri has had in conference play, run defense has absolutely not been one of them.

But now Missouri's vastly improving front four will face an offense more dedicated to running the ball than anybody on the schedule since Nebraska. KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Meanwhile, for the MU defense, they must succeed just the same. If KSU tries to implement the same type of short passing that worked for Baylor and Texas, that's fine, as long as Mizzou is playing sound and tackling well. As Sean Weatherspoon said a couple of days ago, the young players on defense apparently needed to learn that you have to prepare well to play well, and hopefully they got that message last week. If they do, and Mizzou's defense simply plays more fundamentally sound, then they've got the defensive weapons necessary to slow or completely stop KSU's offensive attack on standard downs (and, therefore, on passing downs as well).

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds. I'd much prefer them getting the ball at the 40 than Banks getting a chance to go 100 yards.

Prediction

As always, I let my numbers make the predictions. The numbers say Mizzou by 7, so we'll go Mizzou 28, Kansas State 21. That said, I have been scared of this game since the offseason, even before I saw the kind of slump Mizzou would be in hitting town. I don't have to tell you that Bill Snyder has never lost to Gary Pinkel, and before the season I hinted that Missouri would probably lose the following games: Texas, Oklahoma State, maybe Nebraska or Kansas, and an upset. Most of that has come true, but I figured the most likely upset was at KSU, obviously not at home to Baylor.

Young, talented teams go from good to bad (and vice versa) at random times, which makes it damn near impossible to predict what will happen on Saturday. All I know is that, strangely enough, Mizzou has played very well away from home this year. They whipped Illinois in St. Louis. They put away Nevada when they had the chance. They were two drops away from taking OSU to the wire in Stillwater (which was impressive considering the kind of bad shape Blaine Gabbert was in at that point), and they performed a devastating first-half throat stomp on Colorado two weeks ago. Whatever mental blocks this team suffers, it is apparently as or more likely to happen at home than on the road. And maybe that also has something to do with what Weatherspoon told Dave Matter--on the road, the young players buy into the focus and preparation, but they're more easily distracted at home.

Or not. Who knows.

Mizzou still has every opportunity to bounce back, get to 8-4, and have a shot at a nine-win season in the bowl. But they must bounce back immediately. Outside of Banks, KSU is not a particularly fast, athletic team; but they are tremendously well-coached and know how to take advantage of opportunities. If Mizzou plays like they did against Colorado, even with the second half offensive problems, they will probably win (though it will be closer than the 19-point margin against Colorado). But if they make the same "young team" type of mistakes they've randomly made this year--missing tackles, dropping passes, etc.--then they will absolutely lose this game. That's really all I can say at this point. Play well, win. Play poorly, lose. Play just okay, probably lose because KSU is so well-coached.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Can The Wildcats Handle OU’s Defensive Front? A Conversation With Bring On The Cats

ccmachine — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:25:30 -0000

As we inch closer to Saturday night's kickoff we've invited TB from SBN's Kansas State blog, Bring On The Cats, to visit with us about the 2009 Wildcats and their match-up with our Sooners. I also did a Q&A with BOTC that should be posted sometime in the near future so make sure to check them out to get the Sooner perspective of this conversation.

CC Machine: Other than the lopsided loss to Texas Tech Big 12 conference play has been good to the Wildcats. How has this team improved since losing back-to-back road games to Louisiana Lafayette and UCLA?

TB: The biggest change has been on offense. In the first conference game, Grant Gregory started at quarterback in place of Carson Coffman. He sparked the offense by keeping plays alive with his feet, absorbing contact on the option and quarterback draws, and by finding receivers downfield occasionally for big plays. With all due respect to Carson Coffman, he has provided the offense with an added dimension.

That's in the micro sense, of course. In the macro sense, the entire team has improved over time. Obviously, we installed an entirely new offensive system, and it took those guys a while to pick it up. Having defensive coaches who could actually, you know, coach was a new thing, too, and the defense has had a few growing pains. But the improvement is mostly due to the old Bill Snyder mantra: keep chopping wood and you'll get a little better every day.

CC Machine: With the Wildcats sitting on top of the North and a 5-3 record are KSU fans, for the most part, optimistic or pessimistic right now?

TB: For the most part, I would say very cautiously optimistic. It's hard to be too pessimistic when you've won two in a row and lead the division by a full game, but I think most fans realize there's a lot of work left to do. While I throw the "cautiously" qualifier in there, it still galls a lot of K-State fans that some outlets are treating this as just a nice little story, sure to fade as the Wildcats enter the four-game "gauntlet" to finish the season and inevitably come crashing back to earth. Maybe that will happen, but at this point, you can't say it's any more likely for K-State than for KU, Missouri or Nebraska.

CC Machine: K-State has given up 16 sacks going into the game against OU. How much does that stat scare you as the Wildcats prepare to face Oklahoma's defensive front?

TB: It's as scary as haunted houses were to me when I saw a kid, and I was a really big scaredy-cat as a kid. The biggest problem in the Colorado game, when our offense stagnated in the second half, was the fact that Gregory couldn't drop back, survey the field, and find an open man. Before he could even complete his drop, he had to look down to see which DL had shrugged his block and was already in his face. If we can't establish a running game to slow the OU pass rush, we are toast. Well, we're probably toast anyway, but we'll be extraordinarily burnt toast if we can't slow down the pass rush.

CC Machine: Brandon Banks has been exceptional in the return game. Tell us about some other KSU players that we should be aware of before Saturday night's game.

TB: At running back, Daniel Thomas is a guy to keep an eye on. He is playing hurt right now with a banged-up shoulder, but ran for 145 yards on 20 carries against a CU team that decimated the Texas and KU running attacks prior to meeting K-State. He doesn't break a lot of big plays, but he's big, he's strong, and he finds the crease.

At wide receiver, Lamark Brown will be hard to stop if our line can ever give Gregory time to find him. He's huge, so he has a size advantage on most DBs, and he's fast enough to outrun a lot of DBs. He hasn't gotten open a lot this year, which leads me to believe he may not be running the best routes, but if he ever goes off, he's really going to go off.

On defense, Jeffrey Fitzgerald gets things going on the DL. In the last two games, we've tallied 10 sacks, and that is after only recording six through the first six games. Something seems to be clicking with this crew, and Fitzgerald is the best of the bunch.

CC Machine: KSU's offensive strength is their rushing attack (2^nd in the Big 12/186.5 ypg) and Oklahoma's defensive strength is stopping the run (2^nd in the Big 12/70.1 ypg). How do you see this playing out, for or against, the Wildcats on Saturday night?

TB: It's absolutely crucial that we be able to run the ball. If OU can stop the run without putting eight guys in the box, we're toast. Gregory is a solid quarterback, but nobody is confusing his passing ability with that of Josh Freeman. If he has defenders in his face and the OU secondary blanketing the field, we're in for a lot of three-and-outs.

CC Machine: What gives you the most confidence heading into this game?

TB: Mostly the fact that this team is clearly getting better every week. Confidence is at an all-time high right now after a blowout over Texas A&M and a solid beating of Colorado. We knew this coaching staff would install schemes that work, but until the players see the results, they will never get to their full potential. If they keep working hard, getting better, and executing what the coaches teach them, they're going to achieve goals beyond their wildest imaginations. That almost assuredly won't include a win over OU, but we knew this process wasn't going to have us competing with OU in less than a year.

Ha! Scaredy-cat, I get it!

Wildcats, The Best Team In The North? - A Preview Of Kansas State

ccmachine — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:45:20 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

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If you had slipped into a coma last August and then woke this week and took a peek at the Big 12 North standings the first question you'd ask is, what year is it? Surprisingly the Kansas State Wildcats are sitting on top of the North with a 3-1 conference record. Shockingly the next team in line is Iowa State followed Colorado. The three "Big Dogs" Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri follow in 4^th, 5^th and 6^th places respectively. The two time defending North champions are sitting at the bottom of the North Division with an 0-3 record.

Are the Wildcats really the best team in the North though? I think that the answer to that question really depends on which Kansas State team we're talking about. There's no way that the team that lost 66-14 to Texas Tech has a chance but the one that beat Texas A&M 62-14 certainly could. It appears, from the outside looking in, that one of the biggest struggles the Wildcats have had this season is Jekyll and Hyde syndrome. While we're not for sure which K-State team will show up in Norman we do know that they are currently the top team in the Big 12 North and they have some clearly defined strengths and weaknesses on both offense and defense.

Offensive Strength

Rushing Attack - Kansas State currently has the 2^nd ranked rushing attack in the Big 12 Conference (Behind Iowa State). The run the ball an average of 44 times a game for 18.5 yards. The Wildcats have scored 18 rushing touchdowns this season which leads the conference.

Daniel Thomas leads the way for the Wildcat rushing attack. At 6-2/227 he's a load to bring down but he's also surprisingly fast for a big man. He averages 4.9 yards per carry and 101.8 rushing yards per game. He's also scored half of Kansas State's rushing touchdowns.

Offensive Weakness

Passing Game - The Wildcats go in the opposite direction of their rushing attack when they try to pass the football. KSU is dead last in the Big 12 in passing at 170 yards per game. They've thrown for 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season and have only one passing touchdown in their last 12 quarters of football.

A huge part of the problem with the Kansas State passing attack is that the protection of the quarterback is really, really bad. You thought that OU had problems; these guys have given up 16 quarterback sacks for a total net loss of 141 yards. Grant Gregory replaced Carson Coffman after the Texas Tech game as the starter and has been efficient. For the season he's completed almost 62% of his passes for 491 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Defensive Strength

Run Defense - The Wildcats are literally in the middle of the pack when it comes to team defense. They are allowing opponents to score 21.6 points per game and surrender 327.5 yards of total offense. If they had their druthers they'd most likely prefer you to try to rush on them rather than pass.

Against the run the Wildcats are fairly stout. Opponents have only scored 5 rushing touchdowns against them while averaging 29 carries per game. They are 6^th in the conference in rushing defense allowing 100 yards per game and a 3.4 yard per carry average.

Defensive Weakness

Pass Defense - Defensive end Jeff Fitzgerald leads the Wildcats in sacks with 6 put the team has put opposing quarterbacks on the ground a total of 16 times this season but 10 of those came against Texas A&M and Colorado. That could mean one of two things. Either the Wildcats have suddenly found a pass rush or A&M and Colorado do a horrible job at protecting their quarterbacks. Here's what we do know, K-State gives up an average of 246.6 yards per game through the air which ranks them 9^th in the Big 12. They have picked off 11 passes this season but they've also surrendered a conference worst 16 passing touchdowns.

Intangibles

Special Teams - Place kicking is a crap shoot for the Wildcats. Josh Cherry is 5-10 for the season but 1-5 beyond 30 yards. Their punting is solid with Ryan Doerr averaging 40.1 yards per kick. The gem of the team is Brandon Banks in the return game. He's averaging 31.6 yards per return and has taken 3 kickoff returns to the house this season.

Keys to the Game - Colorado Buffaloes vs Kansas State Wildcats

irish1611 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:00:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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You know the story, the Colorado Buffaloes go on the road today to take on the Kansas State Wildcats where the Buffs are 2 - 17 in the Dan Hawkins era when they go outside the state of Colorado. This year we have seen Colorado play a very winnable game on the road against Toledo and get torched, force four West Virginia turnovers and lose in Morgantown and finally, against Texas three weeks ago, similar to West Virginia, have a third quarter lead in Austin but a key turnover and the failure to execute in sudden change situations cost them the game.

A failure to execute in sudden change situations. That is the best way to describe 2 - 17.

Looking at the past four years or 43 games, the Colorado Buffaloes have only won consecutive games twice, both three game win streaks early in the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Other than that, they have followed up a win with a loss, usually two, in the other 47 games. Only once in Big 12 play has a Dan Hawkins' team won consecutive games.

Dan Hawkins needs to get his team ready to play today. Plain and simple, it is time to grow up on the road and win a very winnable game.

The Buffs need to start executing on the road and showing up every week. It has been a problem in the Dan Hawkins era. Beat the #4 Oklahoma Sooners, lose to Kansas State on the road two weeks later. Beat a ranked West Virginia team last year, lose to Florida State on the road. Will the trend continue today beating a ranked Kansas team last week and losing on the road against Kansas St? Kansas St. is 3 - 0 at home this year. The trend needs to stop today to show signs that the program is progressing on the field.

The Buffs have the opportunity to get a few monkeys off their back.

Keys to the Game

Not Only Win the Turnover Battle, but Beat Kansas State in Productivity Off Of Turnovers

Last week, both Kansas State and Colorado won because the points scored off of the turnovers they forced. Colorado lost the turnover battle against Todd Reesing and the Kansas Jayhawks, usually the kiss of death against a ranked team, but the difference was the Buffs scored 14 points on two Jayhawk turnovers while Kansas only scored six points of three. Kansas State scored 28 points off of five turnovers last week against Texas A&M.

The key for the Buffs this week is Tyler Hansen's progression in protecting the ball. He turned the ball over twice last week (Rodney Stewart also fumbled) something that won't work today if the Buffs want to win. Kansas State plays a ball control style of football. The Wildcats take little risks and thrive off of forcing turnovers and playing the special teams game extremely well. From the Kansas City Star yesterday, "through seven games as the Wildcats have collected 132 first downs and averaged 184.0 rushing yards a game. Of K-State’s 27 scoring drives this season, 16 have covered 50 or more yards and eight have consisted of 10 or more plays. Because of the consistent rushing attack and the ability to sustain drives, K-State has possessed the ball for an average of 34:41 per game this season, a figure that currently ranks first in the Big 12 and second in the nation." In fact Kansas State ranks first in turnover margin in the conference (aided by five turnovers a week ago from Texas A&M) and 17th in the nation. The Buffs on the other hand rank 10th in the conference and 76th in the nation with a turnover margin of -0.33. Can't have that today.

Score Early, Make Kansas State Go to the Air

Its no secret, Kansas State loves their JUCO transfer running back Daniel Thomas. The first year player leads the Big 12 in rushing attempts (145) and is third in yards per game at 95.6. The 6'2" 227 pound running back is the point person for the Kansas State offense. The best way to change that is for the Buffs to get offense going early. Force a few unproductive Kansas State possessions and get some points on the board. Then, let's see what KSU QB's Grant Gregory and Carson Coffman can do. Grant Gregory, the player who has assumed the starting position from Coffman, has only thrown 50 passes this year. Make him do the damage against the Buffs, not Thomas.

Paging Kent Riddle and the Buffs' Special Teams Squad

Kansas State boasts one of the best return games in college football behind Brandon Banks. Banks is second in the Big 12 averaging 31.17 yards per kickoff (amazing because he has 23 returns this year) with three touchdowns. It would be help if Colorado could kick for touchbacks today. DON'T LET BRANDON BANKS TOUCH THE BALL.

Colorado has done a good job returning kicks as well but a block punt here and a missed field goal there still plagues Colorado like it did last year. Against Texas, Colorado gave up a blocked punt for a touchdown. Against Toledo, the Buffs missed an early second quarter field goal. Against West Virginia, the Buffs missed four field goals. All games on the road, all games where the Buffs lost and had special teams issues.

React Well to Sudden Change

It is a term that is used in every football program: Sudden Change. How do you react when things hit the fan. How do you react when Texas blocks a punt for a touchdown? How do you react when Brandon Banks goes for a touchdown on special teams? Part of a football program evolving and a display of good coaching is how your team responds on the road in the face of adversity. With a 2 - 17 record on the road, you can make the claim that the Buffs have failed to respond to adversity. Remember this key today when you are watching the game. On the road, everything doesn't go your way but when that point in the game comes where Kansas State seems to gain a little momentum, see how the Buffs respond. Do they fall apart and give up more points or do they respond? If Tyler Hansen is our quarterback of the future, let's see how he responds with sudden change.

Let the Offense Be Dynamic

Last week we saw five different receivers get the ball in the first half. We saw Tyler Hansen make plays with his feet. Rodney Stewart went for over 100 yards on the ground and the Buffs scored over 30 points. More of the same today Coach Kiesau.

The offensive line needs to play it's best game of the year for that to happen, though. Last week, Kansas State sacked Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson six times and annihilated the Texas A&M running attack to the tune of -13 yards. The week before, Kansas State team gave up 739 yards to Texas Tech. Don't turn the ball over, block up front and the Buffs offense will have plenty of opportunities to score against Kansas State.

Thursday Buff Bites - Buff Commit's Hirschman and Jones Having Great Senior Seasons

irish1611 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 01:17:32 -0000

Littleton star Mister Jones tunes up to defeat adversity - The Denver Post

The Denver Post has a nice article on Buff commit RB Mister Jones:

Jones said Colorado is a "dream school" for him. He said he got a kick out of Colorado's upset last week of Kansas last Saturday, considering a Jayhawks' coach told him before the game he was about to see why Kansas would be a better choice.

Mister Jones' Littleton high school team takes on perennial Colorado power Monarch this weekend at Littleton Public Schools Stadium at 2:00pm Saturday. Could be a good time to get out there and watch him after the Buffs play and a pretty mild college football schedule this week. This will be a tough game up for Littleton as their offensive and defensive line probably won't match up very well with Monarch.

Football Top 15 | After School - Mercury News

A little news about Buff QB commit Nick Hirschman who is having one heck of a senior season:

Nick Hirschman is having a Trent Edwards type of season completing 75 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards with 17 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions.

Current Buffalo Bills QB Trent Edwards also went to Los Gatos High School where Nick Hirschman attends.

KSU special teams pose challenge - Boulder Daily Camera
The Buffs special teams have certainly had their issues the past couple of years and Kansas State is another team that could give them fits. If the Buffs hope to win on the road for the third time in the last four years, Colorado will need to contain Brandon Banks from taking it to the distance this weekend. All touch backs and high punts:

Colorado special teams units are only two weeks removed from a disaster at Texas that might have cost the team an upset win over a top-five team. The Buffs travel to Kansas State this week where they will see another stiff challenge in the kicking game. KSU return man Brandon Banks is among the most dangerous returners in the nation, despite being undersized at 5-foot-7 and 150 pounds. Banks already has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns this season and has four in his career. He also starts at wide receiver and ranks second in the Big 12 Conference and 10th nationally in all-purpose yardage. He had five catches for 95 yards against the Buffs last year but was not filling the return roles at that time.

The Longmont Times-Call - Notes

CU lists Bryce Givens as its starting right tackle for Saturday. Givens missed the Kansas game, his second of the season, for what CU is calling personal reasons. ... CU reported 10,000 tickets remain for Missouri (Oct. 31, 11:30 a.m., FSN). ... CU mascot Ralphie will make an "in-buffalo" appearance Saturday at a watch party at the Blake Street Tavern from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. ... The Buffs are holding opponents to a 35 percent conversion rate on third down, good for fifth in the Big 12.

Big 12 predictions, Week 8 - Big 12 - ESPN
Tim Griffin of ESPN picks against the Buffs against the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan:

Kansas State 24, Colorado 21: Look for a tight defensive battle in this one as the improving Wildcats hook up against new Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen. The Buffaloes looked transformed under Hansen, who directed them to the upset victory over Kansas last week. He’ll be challenged by a KSU defense that notched six sacks and produced three interceptions last week. The Wildcats have been limited at quarterback with Grant Gregory and Carson Coffman alternating time this season. But look for the Wildcats to win this one because of the Buffaloes’ difficulties on the road and the coaching acumen of Bill Snyder.

What to watch in the Big 12, Week 8 - Big 12 - ESPN

5. Kansas State’s rejuvenated pass rush against Colorado.

The Wildcats produced six sacks last week against Texas A&M as their defensive pressure served as the key defensive factor for them against the Aggies. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats had produced six other sacks in the first six games. The Wildcats have to continue to dial up that pressure, but it will be a difficult challenge against elusive Colorado quarterback Tyler Hansen.

6. After all those early stumbles, could Colorado really be a North challenger? And is Kansas State really a division challenger?

We’ll find that out when the Buffaloes travel to Kansas State. Kansas State made a turnaround of 100 points in two weeks after losing by 52 points to Texas Tech and then beating Texas A&M by 48 points the following week -- the biggest two-week turnaround in victory margin in Big 12 history. That run has pushed the Wildcats into first place in the North over three other teams, including the Buffaloes who are a half-game behind. The Wildcats can continue their unexpected run to title contention by winning on Saturday in Manhattan.

CU Buffs tight end Riar Geer reaching his potential - Boulder Daily Camera

Geer`s value to the Colorado offense can`t be overstated. He is a crafty route runner and reliable pass catcher, whom quarterback Tyler Hansen mentioned as one of the players he feels most comfortable with in the passing game. He is capable of lining up as a wide receiver, a traditional tight end and as a fullback. He also has become one of the best blockers on the team.

YouTube - Jeff Bzdelik at Big 12 media days

CU basketball coach Bzdelik: Team will be "fearless" - The Denver Post

"We will be better," Bzdelik said. "We're in an unforgiving league called the Big 12. So, we'll just take it one day at a time. We will be prepared. We will play hard. We'll be fearless. We'll see where that takes us." The 2008-2009 Buffaloes lost 11 games by an average of 4 1/2 points. "Last year, we weren't deep enough, strong enough, mature enough," Bzdelik added. "We've gotten deeper, with the addition of new players. We've gotten maturity and strength with working hard in the weight room. And we gained valuable experience from last year with playing (four players) 30-plus minutes."

Q&A With the Kansas State Blog, Bring on the Cats

irish1611 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:41:16 -0000

The Ralphie Report sat down with the outstanding Kansas State blog, Bring on the Cats, to learn a little more about the Buffs next Big 12 conference opponent. The Kansas State Wildcats currently lead the Big 12 North with a 2 - 1 record and are coming off a dismantling of the Texas A&M Aggies.

We all know about WR/KR Brandon Banks on the offensive side of the ball but not a whole lot about RB Daniel Thomas and QB Grant Gregory. Thomas looks like a horse who was a JUCO transfer that arrived for fall camp as a quarterback/running back but has excelled as a running back. Was this expected from Thomas?

I dare say that more might have been expected, although that's not a knock on Thomas. Given the usually reserved comments from Bill Snyder's coaching staff, the preseason hype about Thomas was unbelievable. One K-State writer joked that the coaching staff was setting up a play where Thomas would hike the ball to himself, then throw a pass 20 yards downfield to...himself. Anyway, I don't think we've even seen everything he's going to be asked to do this year. He's only thrown one pass on the season, and I think it's high time that he throw another pass out of the Wildcat formation.

What's the fan support/expectations like this year in the aftermath of the Ron Prince payout scandal and the return of Bill Snyder? Should the Buffs expect a loud sellout crowd, or is fan support somewhat down this year?

The crowd support this year has been a pleasant surprise. It was packed for Snyder's return at the UMass game. Last weekend, in a game against a far-flung opponent (Texas A&M) that didn't seem to have much meaning coming in, the stadium was again pretty full with almost 45,000 in attendance, although I thought it was more than that during the game. Given that we're suddenly leading the division and have a winnable game against a divisional opponent, I would guess we'll see another near-sellout, with as excited a crowd as there has been in a while in Manhattan.

Everyone is going to want to hear about the yo-yo ride Kansas State fans have been on the past few weeks, losing to Texas Tech by 52 and then beating Texas A&M by 48. Briefly what went wrong against Tech and went went right against A&M?

Basically, it was the usual case of a team getting some bad momentum early and riding the tide to a disastrous conclusion. Fortunately, in the second game, it was our opponent who was on the wrong side of the early momentum. One of my buddies remarked in the first quarter of the Texas A&M game that he was really happy to be leading 17-0, but knew that it could just as easily have been the other way around. And that was true, because we'd seen the exact same thing the week before when Tech went up three scores before we even knew what had hit us. Given what this team went through the last two years, it still has a pretty fragile mindset, so it needs thing to go well early. The first quarter of every game is crucial for K-State this season.

Is KSU a relatively young team like the Buffs or more experienced? Which positions have the greatest depth and experience?

Unfortunately, we're very experienced. Thanks to Ron Prince and his great JUCO experiment, we'll be losing about 30 players this season. Strangely, we also generally don't have a whole lot of quality depth, either. That Prince was a real recruiting sonofagun. Our two best positions for depth are probably running back, where Keithen Valentine has been a more than capable backup to Daniel Thomas, and in the defensive backfield, where we can seeming run out any number of guys that do at least a fair job (except against Texas Tech, of course). Other than that, at most positions we have one or two guys who are pretty good and then absolutely nothing behind them.

Where do you think Kansas State has the advantage and where do you think Colorado has the advantage against Kansas State?

I hesitate to say K-State has an advantage over any team in any aspect of the game this year, because as soon as I make such a prediction, it usually comes crashing down on me. But I'll say that I think our defense has a chance to significantly slow down the Buffaloes. Last week, we held A&M to -13 rushing yards, and as I mentioned above, our defensive backfield is a team strength. I would expect we'll load up on the running game and dare Tyler Hanson to beat us throwing the ball, trusting that our DBs can handle CU's wide receivers.

In the same vein, I'd say that Colorado has a good chance to slow down the K-State offense. I don't have the stats right now, but I know the Buffs made KU's running game pretty much non-existent. If they can do that this weekend, then Grant Gregory or Carson Coffman are going to have a hell of a time trying to move the ball. Basically, I could see this becoming a very low-scoring defensive struggle.

Post Game Reaction: Texas A&M

Panjandrum — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 02:38:04 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

2 months ago: Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas (8) leaps into the end zone to score a touchdown during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Texas A&M Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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If I told you three weeks ago that three games into the conference season, KSU would be first place in the North, would you have believed me? Especially if I told you that in one of those three games, KSU would lose a game by fifty-two points?

Probably not.

However, due to the cripple fight that is the North division, KSU stands alone on top of the conference standings, and the supposed "powers" (and I use that term loosely) all sit at either 1-1 or 0-2. Granted, it's early in the conference season, and things can change during any given week, but right now, KSU looks to be sitting in good shape considering that three of their four remaining home games against the North teams are in the comfy confines of "The Bill". Also, KSU got that priceless "South win" that only teams who play the recently neutered Baylor Bears seem to get.

But that's enough putting the cart ahead of the horse. In the meantime, all Wildcat fans can rejoice over the 62-14 win over Texas A&M, and Aggie fans can finally come to the realization that Mike Sherman is an awful football coach.

KSU impressed in almost every single facet of the game Saturday night, and their domination at the line of scrimmage, on defense, and in special teams was matched only by the cruel efficiency in the way the Kansas State offense, especially Daniel Thomas, found a way to put the ball in the end zone. Honestly, it was the kind of game you dream of having as a coach; you ask your team to create turnovers (A&M had five to KSU's zero), score points off of those mistakes, and make the other team easy to defend by making them one dimensional (A&M had -13 yards rushing). When Coach Snyder and his staff look at the tape, I'm sure they'll have some things to critique (a couple of A&M touchdowns in the second half are good film to break down), but most likely, they'll look at the tape and say, "Well, uh, good job. That's kind of what we're looking for."

The one thing that surprised me last night was the relative ease in which KSU was able to move the ball. I know that A&M isn't the greatest defensive team in the world, but KSU was able to move the ball seemingly at will, which if you've watched any KSU game this year, that's about as shocking as sticking your hand into a light socket after hosing yourself down. Does it mean KSU finally turned the corner offensively to the point where they can finally rely on the offense to help them win games and not be a hindrance? Or does it mean that KSU just had a good night against a really bad team?

Hit the jump to figure out what we think it means and how the rest of the conference fared on this wacky weekend.

What it means and where we're going...

KSU scored 62 points last night and gained 424 yards. Not only did they move the ball with little trouble, but they racked up 232 rushing yards in the process. This team executed the desired game plan with perfection; run to set up the pass, and on those few pass attempts, make them count. Grant Gregory completed 10-13 passes for 147 yards with one touchdown, and Carson Coffman was 5-6 with 45 yards in the air in the second half. KSU was balanced, they were efficient, and they didn't turn the ball over. That is exactly the kind of game plan that KSU needs to execute every single week, and it's the kind of game plan that will win them the necessary five games for bowl eligibility.

Defensively, KSU simply looked faster and more athletic than A&M. Jeffrey Fitzgerald was a beast on the edge with five tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss (which accumulated to 30 yards). Josh Moore was absolutely brilliant in the secondary with four tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one interception, and three pass breakups. Even the often inconsistent linebackers found their way to the ball carrier with speed, and they were sure tacklers when they got there. Every part of the defense was on point last night with the exception of two second half drives (six total plays) that resulted in 137 yards for the Aggies. Otherwise, it was the most dominant performance against a Big 12 team that KSU fans have seen since a 58-7 thrashing of ISU in 2002.

It's pretty easy to get excited after your team dominates a conference foe in every single facet of the game, but given how inconsistent KSU has been in their previous six games, the editorial staff at BOTC will remain cautiously optimistic. Will this momentum carry over into next week's pivotal game against Colorado? Or will this be an aberration that we can write off as an instance where a coaching legend mind raped the only guy that ever found a way to lose with Brett Favre?

I'd love to answer that for all of you, but really, I don't have a clue. I think this game shows us that KSU can put together a complete performance, and when they do, they can probably hang with most of the teams in this conference. The fact that we know this is possible could make poor performances in the future less acceptable. Any time you can whip a team in the Big 12 like this, you have talent. It's on the coaches to make sure they continue to get the most out of it.

Previous Opponents

UMass beat the previously unbeaten New Hampshire Wildcats this week to move to 4-2.

Louisiana beat Western Kentucky 30-22 to move to 4-2 and 2-0 in the Sun Belt. However, losing this game is still an abomination regardless of the fact that they are doing well in their conference.

UCLA got drilled by Arizona this week 45-26. UCLA is now 3-3 and winless in the Pac-10.

No one gives a crap about Tennessee Tech. Moving on...

Iowa State and Texas Tech recaps can be found below.

Big 12 Roundup

Texas 16, Oklahoma 13

I'm going to spare you all a long write up about this because I'm as sick of hearing about it as you are. Texas won, Oklahoma lost, it was actually a pretty entertaining game, and Sam Bradford may have played his last game in a Sooner uniform. If any of this is news to you, please crawl out from under your rock and join the rest of civilization.

Texas Tech 31, Nebraska 10

Nebraska actually outgained the Red Raiders this week (285-259), but they couldn't put the ball into the end zone consistently against a quality defense. This is starting to become painfully familiar to the Huskers, and seeing this happen at home was even more painful. Steven Sheffield continues to prove that he's probably better than Taylor Potts as he accounted for three touchdowns...and two of them were rushing! Now that Tech has started to put their season together behind a hot-handed quarterback, and their defense is playing competently, the Oklahoma schools now have a threat for second place in the South division behind the Longhorns. Nebraska simply continued to expose their weaknesses and added more chaos to an already whacked out North division. Of all of the games this week, this was probably the most telling for both teams involved.

Colorado 34, Kansas 30

LOFL. History Awaits...

Oklahoma State 33, Missouri 17

This was a pretty tight game in the first half, but in the second half, the Cowboys simply beat the Tigers into submission on the road by scoring nineteen unanswered points. Blaine Gabbert continued his descent back to Earth with a 22/44, 1 TD/3 INT performance, and the Tigers continued to struggle with the run after gaining only 68 yards on the ground. Oklahoma State didn't really miss Dez Bryant after Hubert Anyiam hauled in ten catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys moved to 2-0 in conference while the Tigers fell to 0-2.

Iowa State 24, Baylor 10

I really have no idea what happened in this game because watching any Baylor game without Robert Griffin is like going to the dentist and having a root canal without any sort of local anesthesia. On the plus side, Iowa State won their first conference game since November 10, 2007. The honest truth is that this probably saved ISU from being considered as the worst team in the conference this season, so you have to give them kudos for that.

KICKING THE TIRES: Texas A&M University

BracketCat — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:30:17 -0000

Kansas State Wildcats (3-3 | 1-1) VS. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2 | 0-1)

Harley Day
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, Kan.
Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 - 6:00 PM CST

FCS

Strike up "The Cross of Galahad" and kick-start your Harley, because the Fighting Texas Aggies are coming to town for a rumble. Gig 'em on past the jump for a preview of this week's opponent.

KEY PLAYERS

K-State

Passing
Carson Coffman (66 of 111, 815 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT)

Receiving
Brandon Banks (24 catches, 294 yards, 1 TD)

Rushing
Daniel Thomas (127 carries, 578 yards, 4 TD)

Wild Card
Attrail Snipes (14 catches, 242 yards, 2 TD)

TAMU

Passing
Jerrod Johnson (127 of 211, 1,579 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT)

Receiving
Ryan Tannehill (20 catches, 308 yards, 3 TD)

Rushing
Cyrus Gray (72 carries, 314 yards, 2 TD)

Wild Card
Von Miller (24 tackles, 11 TFL, 9 sacks, 1 PBU, 1 FF)

KEY STATS

Rushing Offense
TAMU (28) > K-State (38 | -2)

Passing Offense
TAMU (9) > K-State (91 | -1)

Total Offense
TAMU (4) > K-State (75 | -12)

Scoring Offense
TAMU (12) > K-State (99 | -12)

Rushing Defense
K-State (50 | -12) > TAMU (81)

Pass Efficiency Defense
TAMU (67) > K-State (84 | -62)

Total Defense
K-State (53 | -37) > TAMU (83)

Scoring Defense
K-State (66 | -37) > TAMU (85)

Net Punting
TAMU (39) > K-State (92 | +9)

Punt Returns
K-State (28 | +3) > TAMU (62)

Kickoff Returns
K-State (23 | -19) > TAMU (54)

Turnover Margin
TAMU (26) > K-State (61)

Pass Defense
K-State (65 | -58) > TAMU (81)

Passing Efficiency
TAMU (26) > K-State (71)

Analysis

Holy shit, that's a lot of red.

As you might expect, our painful encounter with the Red Raiders pretty much resulted in Mike Leach tentacle-raping our way-overinflated pass defense statistics. What I didn't foresee, though, is that Tech's normally impotent running game had the same effect on our rush defense statistics. Net result? An uncomfortable similarity to Ron Prince-era defensive numbers. We're not quite back to the triple digits yet, but we still have Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri to look forward to.

Time to get Halloween started early with my scary thought for the week: Texas A&M actually is ranked higher than Texas Tech in several offensive categories -- most notably rushing offense, of course. This does not augur well for a beleaguered and confidence-less defense limping home from the South Plains.

And if seeing Sticks Sheffield tear us apart wasn't fun enough, now we get to enjoy the same treatment whilst also watching our defenders bend down and grasp their ankles while Jerrod Johnson does his best Austen-Arnaud-times-two impression tomorrow night.

We have two chances to keep this game close and possibly even winnable in the fourth quarter. The battle plan is the same as last week; we just need to execute it 500 percent better. A&M has a weaker run defense than we do, and we need to not abandon the run in the first quarter like we did in Lubbock. Daniel Thomas should be able to net yards on these guys. That's key, because regardless if Carson Coffman or Grant Gregory gets the start, the pass rush they witnessed in Jones SBC Stadium will seem like being charged by geriatrics in walkers, compared to what Von Miller is going to do to Clyde Aufner.

On top of that, we have to make plays on special teams. Kick returns, punt returns, blocked kicks... I really don't care what. But it's become painfully clear that our offense never is going to score enough points to challenge "normal" Big 12 offenses conventionally, so our special teams need to manufacture scores to make up the difference. I'd say our defense could force turnovers to help, but despite Jeffrey Fitzgerald's wonderful interception runback, our defense in general is going to have little success doing so because you actually have to hit a guy before you can jar the ball loose.

All I can say is this: Thank God it's a night game at the Bill and it's Harley Day. The atmospheric boost we will get from that just might jar the Aggies enough in their first game outside the state of Texas, and away from friendly crowds, to crack open the door to victory ever so slightly.

But it's hard for me to forget that Ron Prince had to break Bill Snyder's five-game losing streak to the Aggies, a team that has given him even more heartache than Texas Tech over the years. As in the 2005 game, which we lost 30-28, I think the Cats will put up a game effort, but fall just short of victory. Unfortunately, that really could unravel the season.

Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Kansas State 30

BracketCat's Projected Starters

QB: Carson Coffman
FB: Braden Wilson*
RB: Daniel Thomas

WR: Brandon Banks, Attrail Snipes, Lamark Brown**
TE: Jeron Mastrud
OL: Nick Stringer, Zach Kendall, Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, Clyde Aufner

DL: Daniel Calvin, Jeffrey Fitzgerald, Raphael Guidry, Brandon Harold
LB: John Houlik, Joseph Kassanavoid
DB: Troy Butler, Stephen Harrison, Emmanuel Lamur, Torrell Miller, Joshua Moore

*if we start with a fullback and two wide receivers
**if we start with three wide receivers and no fullback

Elsewhere in the Big 12...

Good matchups this week. I predict a slew of close, exciting games. And yes, I do think the Huskers' defense is that good. More specifically, I think Ndamukong Suh is that good. I also liked what I saw out of Baylor last week -- I think they might be good enough across the board to survive in Ames.

#20 Oklahoma vs. #3 Texas (in Dallas) (ABC)
Longhorns 18, Sooners 17

Texas Tech at #15 Nebraska (ABC)
Cornhuskers 24, Red Raiders 10

#17 Kansas at Colorado (FSN)
Jayhawks 31, Buffaloes 21

Baylor at Iowa State
Bears 30, Cyclones 28

Missouri at #16 Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
Cowboys 22, Tigers 20

All helmet images are courtesy of The Helmet Project. Check it out - it's pretty cool.