SB Nation - Chris Carney

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Nestor — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

We will leave it to others for now to write and speculate about UCLA making a move in the Pac-10. Here on the home page of BN, we will stick to the mantra that has worked for us for years: keep our focus on our next opponent. With a record of 4-8 in 2008, we are not the kind of program that has the luxury to look ahead. Coming into this season the goal for Rick Neuheisel and his football team was to get into a bowl game with at least 6 regular season victories. With a 2-0 start and a win at a difficult place like the Neyland Stadium, it puts us in a must win situation this week in our last remaining non conference game before the start of a tough Pac-10 schedule.

Our next opponent – Kansas State Wildcats – are off to a very rough start in 2009. The Wildcats struggled to beat UMass at home (a team which just started playing D-1A ball this year) and then they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 15-17. The takes from our SBN colleagues at Bring On The Cats (BTC) are understandably gloomy. Sportsline.com also put their recent loss "in perspective":

Let's put this one in perspective: Louisiana had not defeated a school from a BCS conference since Sept. 14, 1996, when Jake Delhomme led the Ragin' Cajuns to a 29-22 upset of No. 25 Texas A&M. Overall, the Cajuns were just 1-15 against teams from the Big 12 Conference.

That, however, was before Saturday's 17-15 victory over Kansas State in Lafayette.

"It's probably disheartening to a lot of people," coach Bill Snyder said of the loss, which dipped the Wildcats to 1-1. "I want our guys to be disappointed."

Still, if anyone wants to get all smug and disrespect the KSU, I’d suggest browsing through Tennessee blogs and message boards last week and revisit those bold predictions of the Volunteers cruising to a victory.

Last week it was our team that went into the opponent’s turf with nothing to lose. This week it will be the Kansas State Wildcats, who will be coming into the Rose Bowl as double digit underdogs, looking to sneak up with nothing to lose on a Bruin football team and fanbase feeling good about a SEC road win. Add to those factors we will most likely be breaking in a true freshman QB as a starter, a revamped OL which is improving but still working to gel as a unit, and all the inexperience at other offensive skill positions, Bruins will need to be on high alert. So with those toplines let’s get to some initial notes on Kansas Sate.

The story of these Wildcats begin with their head coach Bill Snyder who returned to Manhattan to clean up the mess left behind by inept regime of Ron Prince. If CRN’s return to UCLA is the "return of the prodigious son," Snyder’s return to Manhattan can be looked as "the Return Of the Godfather". Paul Meyerberg from the New York Times’ put Snyder’s record in perspective in his pre-season Wildcat preview:

The Wildcats went 137-445-18 from 1935-1988, the year before Snyder’s arrival. The program finished with only five winning seasons over this 54-year span: 1936, 1953-54, 1970 and 1982; that’s three fewer winning seasons than the program had winless seasons over that time. When Snyder arrived in late 1988, the program was mired in a streak of 27 consecutive games without a win (under Stan Parrish, the new coach at Ball State). While he did not immediately make K.S.U. into a winner – the Wildcats won 18 games in his first four seasons – the program took the next step forward in 1993, when it finished 9-3-1 and set a team record for points in a season (312). That year marked the first of 11 nine-win or better seasons in 12 years for the Wildcats, including a stretch from 1997 to 2003 of six 11-win seasons in seven years, making K-State only the second program in F.B.S. history to have such an extended streak of tremendous play. In 1998, an historic win over rival Nebraska pushed K-State to the top spot in the A.P. poll, the first time the team stood atop the college football landscape. That year – which ended with the Wildcats at No. 4 nationally – might have been the apex of the program, but Snyder continued to field annual conference and B.C.S. contenders. Kansas State won its first conference championship since 1934 in 2003, when it upset heavily favored and then-No. 1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. However, the team struggled in the following two seasons, finishing a combined 9-15, leading many to question whether Snyder could still coach at a high level. Hence Snyder’s decision after the 2004 season (mutual, by all accounts) to step down, leading K.S.U. to hire Prince.

Well Prince ran the program into the ground (just like Karl Dorrell). Luckily for KSU it took them three years to recognize that fact, so they brought in Synder to clean up the mess. Apparently he is kind of a character as noted by the bloggers at Barking Carnival (Texas Longhorns blog) in their hilarious 2009 preview of Kansas State. It’s pretty funny (not very politically correct) read, all though I am sure it’s not amusing to fans of KSU (and it includes the usual easy cheap shots at Neuheisel that seems to be SOP for fans of most Big-12 teams).

As for the team, the biggest challenge for Kansas State this season has been replacing quarterback Josh Freeman, who was a first round draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. Freeman left KSU after his junior season, setting the school’s holds career mark for passing yards (8,078), touchdowns (40), completions (663), attempts (1,121) and total offense (8,080). So far the QBs seeking to step up for Freeman have been struggling. From TB at BTC:

At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

I imagine Coffman and Gregory’s struggle have the Wildcats frustrated because at least per the pre-season reviews they had some weapons to work with and were coming into the season with a decent offensive line:

Despite losing Murphy (Deon Murphy, who finished third on the team in receptions with 37, and second on the squad in receiving yards (555) and touchdowns (6)) and Pierce (Ernie Pierce, whose 15.7 yards per catch average (24 for 424 yards) led the team), the deepest position on the Kansas State offense is wide receiver. The team brings back the 2008 Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year in the senior Brandon Banks, who led the team in receptions (67), yards (1,049) and touchdowns (9) in his first season with the program. Banks, like Murphy before him, excels in the return game, as shown in his 27.7 yards per kick return average. He will be joined at receiver by the senior Aubrey Quarles (34 receptions for 407 yards) and the junior Lamark Brown (24 for 178). Brown spent much of his 2008 season at running back, leading the team in rushing (412 yards). Another weapon to watch in the passing game is the senior tight end Jeron Mastrud, who made 38 receptions for 455 yards a season ago. The senior Keithen Valentine is expected to assume the starting running back role, but the freshman Jarell Childs and the sophomore Logan Dold will also receive carries. The offensive line may have lost three starters, but the team does return a numbers of players with past starting experience. Leading the way is the senior Nick Stringer, a 2008 all-Big 12 honorable mention pick at left tackle. He brings 23 career starts into his final season, most among all Wildcat offensive linemen. Stringer and guard Eric Benoit are the only seniors on the current two-deep, so this will be a young group in 2009. Still, the line could be surprisingly strong this fall, especially if it gets good production from the plethora of sophomores battling for starting roles.

Brandon Banks is off to a slow start for the Wilcats per Sportsline.com. Banks had just three catches for 33 yards against Louisiana, after catching seven balls for 67 yards in the opening win over UMass. So, if I were the Bruin DBs, I’d keep a close eye on him. Meanwhile, DB Daniel Thomas is off to good start as he has put together back to back 100 yards rushing games (I know, I know ... look at the opponent) in his first two games (136 yards in 27 carries against Louisiana, which followed a 104 yard game against UMass).

I think it will be interesting to see how the Bruin defense comes out on Saturday. I am sure it’s not lost on them that despite their solid (some would call it outstanding) performance in last two weeks, they didn’t really come out and set a dominating tone in their first series. Especially as good as the performances have been from Rahim Moore, ATV, Reggie Carter, Brian Price, and the Bosworth brothers, we can use more focused performance from kids such as Akeem Ayers. Our defense still has room to grow to reach it full potential, and the team with a new quarterback will be really looking to them to set the tone on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball Wildcats have some athletes on the defensive side with two solid ends on the frontline:

The team returns two solid ends in the sophomore Brandon Harold (45 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a 2008 freshman all-American, and the senior Eric Childs (52 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Harold is the most likely current Wildcat to continue the team’s recent tradition of standout defensive ends. In the middle, K.S.U. should be very excited about what the senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald can do for the team’s run defense (217.7 yards per game last fall). Fitzgerald, who sat out all of last fall after transferring in from Virginia, may be the best player on the entire defense.

The Wildcats return two starters at linebacker, including the sophomore Alex Hrebec. A former walk-on, Hrebec stuffed the stat sheet last fall with 68 tackles (4 for loss), 2.5 sacks and an interception. It’s rare enough to see a walk-on earn a starting role for a B.C.S.-conference program; it’s rarer still to see a walk-on start as a redshirt freshman. Joining him at linebacker is the senior Ulla Pomele (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss), a former JUCO transfer. K-State’s secondary is led by the junior Joshua Moore, a 2008 honorable mention all-Big 12 pick and a potential all-American this fall. Moore concluded his sophomore campaign first on the team in both tackles (76) and interceptions (3), illustrating his importance to the overall success of the defense. Moore is the best Wildcat cornerback since Terence Newman. He is joined in the secondary by three talented safeties: Chris Carney, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon.

Well not sure if Harold will be available for this weekend’s game as per their roster report on CBS he has been sitting out with an injury (along with DE Kadero Terrell and AR Aubrey Quarles). Perhaps the Kansas State fans who are lurking on BN this week, can provide us with a more up to date take on the injury situation. As for the other guys, Pete Fiutak from College Football News called Joshua Moore the best defensive player for KSU heading into this season.

I think the key here will be all about game management. We will need our quarterback to do what Prince did fairly effectively as a first year starter in his first two games: minimize mistakes and do what he can to keep the chains moving. This will be one of those games that will present Chow and his offense an opportunity to execute the strategy of picking up 4 yards or more per rushing attempts, and putting the offense in manageable situations on second and third downs. If we can combine that with continued stellar play from our special teams we will have a good chance to keep the momentum going heading into a bye week.

That’s what I have for now. I am looking forward to learning up about Kansas State, the same way we keep discussing Tennessee this past week. We will be reading up more on KSU during the week. If you have your own perspective to offer up wrt to Saturdays’ matchups fire the quick takes in the comment threads and the extended ones in FanPosts. That invitation goes out to all Kansas State fans who might be visiting BN for the first time. We are looking forward to chatting up football the same way we had fun going back and forth (in respectful and classy way) with the Volunteer fans from last game week. Football should always be about fun.

GO BRUINS.

2009 Football Position Breakdown: Safeties

Panjandrum — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:54:33 -0000

AP Photo

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What do you get when you mix a cornerback with a linebacker? You get a safety.

What do you get when you mix a safety with a linebacker? You get a rover. Or a "Wildcat". Or you get whatever it is they call the hybrid safety/linebacker in Vic Koenning and Chris Cosh's new 4-2-5 scheme.

Regardless, due to the number of them on the field, and their importance in this particular scheme, safety will become a spotlight position this season and in the upcoming ones at Kansas State.

And while a couple of familiar names return, there are a whole slew of new guys looking to make an impact this coming season. Click the jump to find out who will be the last line of defense against the high-octane Big 12 spread offenses this season for the Wildcats.

Safeties

#21 Troy Butler

Class: Junior
Height: 6-1
Weight: 200
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#5 Chris Carney

Class: Senior
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Previous Starter (Y/N): Yes (13 games)
Honors: Player Representative (2009)
Official Bio

#28 Logan Dold

Class: Sophomore
Height: 6-0
Weight: 207
Previous Starter (Y/N): No (He started at RB for 3 games, so it doesn't count here.)
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#8 Stephen Harrison

Class: Junior
Height: 5-11
Weight: 181
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/a
Official Bio

#2 Tysyn Hartman

Class: Sophomore
Height: 6-3
Weight: 207
Previous Starter (Y/N): Yes (8 games)
Honors: Player Representative (2009)
Official Bio

#20 Courtney Herndon

Class: Senior
Height: 6-0
Weight: 211
Previous Starter (Y/N): Yes (10 games)
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#23 Emmanuel Lamur

Class: Sophomore
Height: 6-4
Weight: 214
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#31 Torell Miller

Class: True Freshman
Height: 6-3
Weight: 205
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#13 Adrian Stryker

Class: Senior
Height: 6-1
Weight: 206
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

#24 Dahrnaz Tigner

Class: Junior
Height: 6-2
Weight: 223
Previous Starter (Y/N): No
Honors: N/A
Official Bio

Projected Depth Chart:

Starters:

Free Safety: Tysyn Hartman
Strong Safety: Courtney Herndon
Wildcat Safety: Emmanuel Lamur

Backups:

Free Safety: Chris Carney
Strong Safety: Troy Butler OR Logan Dold
Wildcat Safety: Dharnaz Tigner

Reserves: Stephen Harrison, Torrell Miller, Adrian Stryker

Justification:

Aside from the offensive line, this is the most difficult position to predict based on the new scheme and the influx of new personnel. Obviously, you have two returning starters, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon, so you expect them to start again. However, there have been rumblings on the Interwebs about Herndon moving to the hybrid safety/linebacker role because of his strength, solid tacking ability, and his pass coverage skills. But he is the returning starter at strong safety, and he did excel there, so I'll go with him as the starter at that spot. Since Hartman is the returning starter at the free safety role, I'll keep him there too.

The starting Wildcat safety position is a hard one to predict. We've all heard good things out of camp in regards to Sophomore JUCO transfer, Emmanuel Lamur. Lamur, who may actually make more sense at the "Wildcat" due to his size, speed, and tackling ability, will play either the Wildcat or strong safety position. I expect him and Herndon to be on the field at the same time (if healthy), so I wouldn't be surprised if they flip flop depending on who does better at their respective roles.

Chris Carney is an experienced veteran, and a former starter at the free safety position. I imagine he'll get plenty of reps, but he won't beat out Hartman. Hartman has an advantage, physically, in almost every area in terms of size and speed. Also, his experience as a quarterback lends itself to the free safety position. That's not a knock on Carney; he's an excellent choice to back up Hartman.

At the strong safety position, I imagine Troy Butler or Logan Dold will backup Herndon. Both of them are physically talented players that will be hard to keep off of the field. Truthfully, putting them at strong safety is kind of arbitrary. I anticipate that with a mixture of injuries and/or performance issues, you could see either of these guys backing up at any of the other safety positions. At this point, when talent supersedes supposed fit, it's easy to see a scenario where the safety position could ultimately be a game of musical chairs.

That said, to back up the Wildcat position, I'll select Dahrnaz Tigner. He's listed on the GoPowercat.com depth chart as a linebacker, but he's listed in the media guide as a safety. Given his time at both positions, his size and his speed, he's the perfect fit for this role. In the event that he moves back to the secondary, I see him as a perfect fit here.

Former walk-ons, Stephen Harrison and Adrian Stryker, will fill out the depth chart. They'll most likely see all of their action on special teams. Torrell Miller, a freshman, will most likely redshirt unless injuries push him to see the field.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

TB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Sorry this is really late from BOTC. I was out of town all last week and wasn't checking my email, so this got ignored. Anyway, CBS Sports and SB Nation's Colorado blog, The Ralphie Report, are this official conference preview. Here is BOTC's "outsider's" conference preview, intended to be a lot like something you'd find in a magazine.

Offense (Six Returning Starters)

Everything begins at the quarterback position, and K-State has a big hole to fill there after Josh Freeman left to become a first-round NFL draft pick. The favorite to replace him is junior Carson Coffman, and if you've followed Big 12 football recently, yes, he is the brother of former Missouri tight end Chase Coffman. Coffman was the starting QB for the first-team squad in the spring game, and played very well in completing 25 of 36 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, that was against the second-string defense, but it was a much more impressive performance than we had seen in prior spring games. All signs still point to Coffman being the starter in the first game against UMass, as it doesn't appear Grant Gregory, Collin Klein, or Joseph Kassanavoid have done anything to unseat the frontrunner.

Running back is a mystery position for the Cats this season, as it was one of many areas on the roster about which former coach Ron Prince apparently had no understanding when it came to roster management. Last year's leading rusher, Lamark Brown, is moving to wide receiver. Logan Dold, the second-leading rusher among running backs, moved to safety. The next running back, Keithen Valentine, has had two good spring games in a row, and almost nothing to show for it during the regular season. Last season, Valentine rushed for 129 yards total.

Snyder announced that heralded recruit Daniel Thomas will likely start the season at running back, which probably makes him the favorite to be the starter against UMass. Thomas is a dynamic athlete who also has the size -- 6'2", 227 lbs. -- to be among the biggest running backs we've had in a while.

Whatever production K-State is going to get from its wide receivers, it had better get it this season. The squad's best receivers are almost all seniors, which will leave a big hole in 2010. However, this group looks like one of the team's strengths, led by 2008's Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. Banks is the undersized receiver with blazing speed, and the best home-run threat K-State has had since Darren Sproles started at running back.

Along with Banks, senior Attrail Snipes and junior Lamark Brown could add some depth and firepower at this position. Snipes didn't get much of a chance to play wide receiver last year, but he was a highly touted junior college recruit who could make an impact. As already mentioned, Brown has moved back to wide receiver after playing running back last season. He's another gifted athlete who could give opposing defenses headaches if he picks up the position quickly.

Tight end should be a position at which K-State is fairly solid this season. Senior Jeron Mastrud returns after a 2008 season in which he caught 38 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Solid numbers for a tight end, and he's that reliable target you want a new quarterback to have. The backups at tight end are a bit of a question mark, with newcomers Prizell Brown (junior college transfer) and Travis Tannahill (freshman) being the most likely candidates to spell Mastrud.

One thing you can say about K-State's offensive line is that it has a lot of players with returning starts. Given that Prince liked to rotate players around, nobody can be absolutely sure who will start where and whether the prior experience will be much help, but at least this unit isn't trying to break in a bunch of true freshman and transfers. Nick Stringer anchors the line at left tackle, bringing 23 starts into 2009. Completing Coffman's blind-side protection on the left side will probably be Zach Kendall, who has five starts to his credit.

Wade Weibert and Trevor Viers will vie for the starting spot at center. Viers has seven starts to his credit, but Weibert was a top-50 junior college recruit who started with the first team during the spring game.

On the right side, Clyde Aufner probably gets the nod at right tackle, and Colten Freeze probably starts at guard. Aufner saw action in three games last year as a redshirt freshman, while Freeze had three starts last season as a redshirt freshman. Expect to see a lot of competition for these positions, with sophomore Kaleb Drinkgern and junior Kenny Mayfield pushing for playing time.

Defense (Eight Returning Starters)

To say that K-State's 2008 defense was putrid would be kind. Out of 119 FBS teams, K-State ranked 117 in total defense. So yeah, things are bad. But with a strong new coaching staff and several talented players returning, improvement is likely on this side of the ball in 2009. The real question is how much improvement will be made, and whether it will be enough to have a significant effect on the season.

Before Brandon Harold's injury in preseason practice, the defensive line looked to be the strength of the team. Harold was a freshman all-america last season, registering 45 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss last season, but we don't know how soon he'll return after he dinged up his knee in practice. Jeffrey Fitzgerald is likely to start at defensive tackle, although an offseason arrest on suspicion of DUI may temporarily derail those plans. Fitzgerald is a transfer from Virginia, and with the Cavaliers 137 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in 25 starts.

Other probable starters on the defensive line are Daniel Calvin at DT and Eric Childs at DE. Childs was honorable mention all-conference last season as a junior while making 11 starts and recording 52 tackles. Calvin is a big body in the middle at 6'3" and 310 lbs., but didn't have the type of season K-State was hoping for last season. Look for newcomer Kadero Terrell, a hybrid defensive end/linebacker to see some time at DE this season, too, if the spring game was any indication.

Linebacker looks to be one of K-State's weaker units this season after losing three players who had multiple starts last season. However, the defense is moving to a 4-2-5 alignment in an attempt to combat the Big 12's prolific spread offenses, so fewer linebackers will be required. One of the positions will be occupied by sophomore Alex Hrebec, who registered 68 tackles in only six starts last season. The other linebacker spot will be filled either by John Houlik or Ulla Pomele. Pomele had the better season last year and would be the choice of most K-State fans at this position.

In the secondary, it begins with cornerback Joshua Moore. In 2006, Moore was a freshman all-america before being injured late in the season. He returned to action in 2008 after redshirting the 2007 season as a result of apparent academic issues. Moore was one of the few bright spots on last season's atrocious defense, tallying 76 tackles, three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. The starter at the other cornerback position is still uncertain. Senior Billy McClellan is probably the leading candidate seeing action in 10 games last season.

The safeties will be expected to play a bigger role in Vic Koenning's and Chris Cosh's 4-2-5 scheme. Courtney Herndon will likely start at one of the safety positions after starting 10 games and recording 61 tackles last season. Chris Carney also had a solid season last year, with 53 tackles and five passes broken up in only four starts.

Defensive back will be a position to keep an eye on at K-State this season. Two players who have switched position, Logan Dold and Tysyn Hartman, could see action at DB this season. Also, newcomer Emmanuel Lamur is one of the more intriguing additions to the team. Lamur is a big defensive back at 6'4" and 214 lbs., and the coaches seem to be pretty high on him.

Special Teams

One of the hallmarks of a Bill Snyder-coached team is solid special teams play. Coincidentally, that was about the only thing Ron Prince's teams did consistently well. This season, K-State's special teams should be solid again. In all likelihood, Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles will continue to return kickoffs, and Banks averaged 27.7 yards per return in that duty last season. It's not clear right now who will return punts for K-State after last year's punt returner, Deon Murphy, left the team.

One position where K-State should see significant improvement this season is punter. Last season, with George Pierson and D.J. Fulhage splitting time, punting was a weakness, as the Cats finished 10th in the Big 12 in net punting. Panjandrum attended the spring game and was very impressed with newcomer Ryan Doerr, who is the likely starter this season.

At kicker, junior Josh Cherry is the likely starter despite seeing very limited action behind Brooks Rossman last season. Doerr is also listed as a kicker and was pretty solid at that position in high school, so it's possible Doerr could pull double duty.

Key Losses

Offense: Josh Freeman (QB), Deon Murphy (WR), Ernie Pierce (WR)

Defense: Ian Campbell (DE), Ray Cheatham (S), Reggie Walker (LB), Blair Irvin (S)

Special Teams: Brooks Rossman (K), Deon Murphy (PR)

Season Forecast

K-State's non-conference slate features two FCS teams, meaning the Wildcats will have to win seven games to reach bowl eligibility this season. While that's not impossible given the upgrade at every position on the coaching staff, it could be a bridge too far for a team that's 10-14 the last two seasons. In another interesting twist, K-State plays twelve games in twelve consecutive weeks, so it remains to be seen whether the lack of a bye week will hamper this team late in the season.

The Wildcats open up with a home game against UMass, dubbed by the athletic department as the "K-State Family Reunion" because it's Bill Snyder's first game back. Though Snyder's clubs are notoriously slow starters, the Wildcats should be able to handle an FCS team in the home opener. The next week, in a strange twist of scheduling, K-State travels to Lafayette, La., to play the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Last season, UL nearly upset the Cats in Manhattan. The Cajuns lost their quarterback and running back to graduation, however, and as such probably won't have quite enough firepower for a K-State team that should be improved on defense under Koenning and Cosh.

On September 19th, Snyder will take his club to Pasadena, Calif., to meet up with an old nemesis from the Big 8 (and early Big 12) days in Rick Neuheisel. Of course, Neuheisel coaches UCLA now, not Colorado, and last season's UCLA team was, well, pretty bad. The combined record of the teams UCLA defeated was 12-37. Despite that, the smart money would be to bet on UCLA in this game. Snyder's teams usually do not play well in September, and that will probably be amplified this season because it's Snyder's first year on the job.

After two weeks on the road, K-State then returns home for another FCS opponent, Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles were 3-9 last season and shouldn't pose a threat to K-State, especially in Manhattan.

K-State opens Big 12 play with a neutral-site game against Iowa State at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, Paul Rhoads, after two atrocious seasons under Gene Chizik. No game is a given for K-State this season, but last year's Wildcats defeated Iowa State in the last game of Prince's lame-duck tenure and, on a neutral field, should be able to topple the Cyclones again. After that, the going gets significantly more difficult, as K-State travels to Lubbock, Texas, to take on Captain Leach. Despite losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders are one of those programs that is more likely to reload than rebuild, and games in Lubbock are usually a nightmare for opposing teams.

A home date with Texas A&M awaits after K-State returns from the South Plains. In Snyder's first tenure, matchups with A&M were usually nightmares, but these aren't your older cousin's Aggies. Last season, K-State hammered A&M in College Station, and while the Aggies should be a little better this season, signs of significant improvement are absent. With K-State still breaking in a new system, this game will probably be a little closer than last season's meeting, but Snyder & Co. should still be able to pick up the win.

Another home date follows as Colorado comes to town the next week. The Buffs were one of the few programs -- Texas being the other -- that Prince's teams didn't completely suck against. Ol' Prince went 2-1 against Dan Hawkins in three tries, with the lone defeat being a one-point decision in Boulder last year. Colorado is the wildcard of the North, as most have expected them to be a lot better the last couple seasons than they actually were, and this is a game whose prediction could change based on how Colorado plays. Given that it's later in the season and the fact that I now live in the "Show-Me" state, I'm going to wait on Colorado to prove itself and call this a narrow win for K-State.

So if you're keeping score at home, my prognostications now have the Cats at 6-2. However, the schedule turns disastrous at this point, with the following games looming: @ Oklahoma, KU, Missouri, @ Nebraska. Obviously, the Oklahoma game can be written off as a loss at this point. Based on preseason pure roster talent, KU and Missouri are also likely losses for K-State, even at home. Nebraska is also among the favorites to win the North, so a game in Lincoln does not bode well for K-State to close the season. The season will turn on whether Snyder can find a win in this murderous finish. On the bright side, Snyder's clubs typically play their best ball in November, going 25-4 in November home games since 1990 (H/T, Phil Steele). If KU gets crushed by its South Division gauntlet and drops a surprise game against Colorado or Nebraska, the Cats may have a chance to pick up a win in a home rivalry game. Similarly, if Mizzou ends up rebuilding rather than reloading, that's a game the Cats could win if things are going well.

Predicted Order of Finish

Big 12 North

Nebraska

Missouri

K-State

Colorado

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Defensive Preseason Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at what Ron Prince left Bill Snyder on the offensive side of the ball (short answer: not much). Today we look at the defense. Clearly not only competent coaching, but downright good coaching alone will help this D out quite a bit, but is there talent here? Do Snyder and co-coordinators Chris Cosh and Vic Koenning have anything to work with?

As always, we start with a look back at 2008:

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 94.3 (#79)
Success Rate+: 96.6 (#77)
PPP+: 91.6 (#80)

Standard Downs S&P+: 96.1 (#72)
Passing Downs S&P+: 104.0 (#54)

Redzone S&P+: 96.1 (#72)

Q1 S&P+: 91.3 (#86)
Q2 S&P+: 96.5 (#68)
Q3 S&P+: 101.1 (#51)
Q4 S&P+: 105.6 (#47)

1st Down S&P+: 100.0 (#62)
2nd Down S&P+: 96.7 (#76)
3rd Down S&P+: 99.3 (#62)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 90.1 (#88)
Rushing SR+: 96.5 (#73)
Rushing PPP+: 82.3 (#98)

Standard Downs: 89.0 (#93)
Passing Downs: 91.6 (#78)

Redzone: 89.1 (#85)

Line Yards+: 89.7 (#100)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 96.6 (#71)
Passing SR+: 97.2 (#68)
Passing PPP+: 96.0 (#70)

Standard Downs: 102.3 (#54)
Passing Downs: 104.8 (#53)

Redzone: 105.3 (#45)

Sack Rate+: 119.7 (#35)

Well...their sack rate was pretty good. That's something. And they were above average in the fourth quarter! Granted, most of the time the game was long over by the fourth quarter (win or lose), but still. Also, while they certainly weren't great against the pass (71st in the country), they were pretty atrocious against the run (88th). As their Rushing PPP+ attests, they gave up far too many big plays in the run game, and it put them on their heels quite a bit.

If there's anything particularly good to report for KSU here, it's that they were at least competent in attack mode--when they were actually able to leverage teams into Passing Downs, they were slightly above average (104.0 Passing Downs S&P+).

And like the offense, they were worst on second downs. Still haven't figured out how that happens.

Defensive Line

Harold definitely passes the eyeball test.

2008 Unit Ranking: #73 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Brandon Harold (6'6, 264, So.)
DE Eric Childs (6'3, 238, Sr.)
DT Jeffrey Fitzgerald (6'4, 280, Sr.)
DT Daniel Calvin (6'3, 310, Sr.)
DE Grant Valentine (6'3, 240, Jr.)
DT Raphael Guidry (6'4, 267, So.)
DT Gabriel Crews (6'1, 310, Jr.)
DE Payton Kirk (6'6, 245, So.)

Hope, thy name is Brandon Harold. The true freshman from East St. Louis racked up 13.5 TFL/sacks in 2008 and forced a pair of fumbles. That alone wouldn't have been an all-conference level by any means, but for a true freshman it was pretty outstanding. At 6'6, 265, Harold passes the eyeball test, and if he improves even slightly as a sophomore, he should give Bill Snyder something to work with.

Despite Harold's performance, clearly this line was only average. Whatever success they had rushing the quarterback was negated by not standing up well to the run. The line gets a reinforcement this year in the form of Virginia transfer Jeffrey Fitzgerald. At 280 pounds, he's far from a giant, but his athleticism was on display his two years in Charlottesville. His freshman year in 2006, he was third on the team in tackles (as a DT!), racking up 16.5 TFL/sacks, intercepting two passes (!), and recovering two fumbles. In 2007, he was even better--while falling to fourth (gasp) on the team in tackles, he managed 18.5 TFL/sacks, picked off two more passes, forced two fumbles, and recovered one. At his size, it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggling on a down-to-down basis against good offensive lines (like Missouri's), but he's a playmaker, and he lines up next to another potential playmaker in Harold.

Rounding out the likely starting line are probably either Eric Childs (9.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF in 2008) or JUCO transfer Grant Valentine at end and either Daniel Calvin (11.5 tackles) or Raphael Guidry (8.0) at tackle. Calvin might get the nod here simply because he offers some really good size, which could in theory open things up for Fitzgerald a bit.

As I mentioned yesterday, I respect Snyder's abilities enough to assume that the front seven will be coached up to its highest possible level, and in Harold and Fitzgerald, and potentially Valentine or Calvin, there is some talent to work with here. As with some of the offense, though, the top of this depth chart is filled with seniors. Aside from Harold, they will be building things anew in 2010.

Linebackers

You're Bill Snyder's only hope, Alex Hrebec.

2008 Unit Ranking: #79 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Alex Hrebec (5'11, 238, So.)
Ulla Pomele (6'1, 228, Sr.)
John Houlik (5'11, 219, Sr.)
Hansen Sekona (6'0, 230, Sr.)
Craig Boswell (6'1, 186, Sr.)
Dahrnaz Tigner (6'2, 223, Jr.)

When I think of Bill Snyder (and Phil Bennett) defenses, I immediately think of linebackers. Mark Simoneau. Josh Buhl. Jeff Kelly. Terry Pierce. Hell, even Brandon Archer (or did he only play like an All-American against us?). The most shocking part of K-State's defensive decline under Ron Prince was the fact that the linebackers just disappeared. Seriously, name a K-State LB after Brandon Archer. You can't. I guess Ian Campbell sort of counts, but not really. And...KSU's LBs were 10th in the conference? Bill Snyder must be rolling over in his grave. Oh wait...nevermind.

If there's immediate hope to be derived from this unit, look at Alex Hrebec. As a freshman last year, he racked up 49.0 tackles, 6.5 TFL/sacks, a forced fumble, and a long interception return. Having Hrebec for another three years has to excite Snyder at least a little. And really, I probably shouldn't sell Ulla Pomele short either. He's a senior, and he's probably already peaked, but he did manage 47.5 tackles and 8.5 TFL/sacks last year, plus two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. The two of them should provide the base for a decent LB corps, though you'll notice the same problem as with other units--too much of the wrong kind of experience. Of the six LBs (and Rovers, in the case of maybe Boswell and Tigner) listed above, four are seniors. In 2010, Snyder will be working with Hrebec, Tigner and a host of newcomers. As I mentioned yesterday...how long does Snyder plan to stay this time around? He'll need quite a few years to get a team full of experienced Snyder recruits.

Secondary

Can Joshua Moore cover two guys at once?

2008 Unit Ranking: #62 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Joshua Moore (5'11, 184, Jr.)
S Courtney Herndon (6'0, 211, Sr.)
S Tysyn Hartman (6'3, 207, So.)
CB Billy McClellan (5'8, 170, Sr.)
S Chris Carney (6'1, 190, Sr.)
CB Otis Johnson (5'10, 175, Sr.)
S Adrian Stryker (6'1, 206, Sr.)

At 62nd in the country, the secondary represented the strength of the K-State defense in 2008. The biggest reason for that: Joshua Moore. From the cornerback position, he led the team in tackles (not always a good thing for a cornerback to be doing) and racked up a pretty nicely disruptive stat line: 5.5 TFL/sacks, 3 INTs, 12 passes broken up, 15 passes defended, and a fumble recovery. He displayed enough skill that I'm going to say that the high tackle level was a good thing--that he wasn't just adding the tackles up by giving up a lot of receptions.

Consider me a big fan of Joshua Moore. Everybody else? Um...well, Courtney Herndon (6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 INTs) is really not too bad. Tysyn Hartman is young and relatively athletic. Otis Johnson is...MY MAN. Again, of the seven names I list above, five are seniors, but at least Moore and Hartman will be around in 2010 (assuming Moore doesn't go pro...I'll assume for now that he's not quite that good). The rest are relatively replaceable, though there will need to be some experience somewhere in 2010.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #105 Net Punting, #28 Punt Returns, #24 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Josh Cherry (6'1, 183, Jr.)
P D.J. Fulhage (5'9, 180, Jr.) - 33 punts, 32.2 net
KR - Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.) - 18 returns, 27.7 avg, 1 TD
PR - Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.) - 5 returns, 11.6 avg

Beyond linebackers, the other thing you probably think of in regard to Bill Snyder's best team was devastating special teams. Needless to say, ranking 105th in net punting is devastating, but in the wrong way. Good coaching will help the coverage units quite a bit, but more will be needed from D.J. Fulhage as well.

If it is determined that Brandon Banks can handle a monster load of touches--60-80 catches, plus both kick and punt returns, he's definitely the best option returning kicks/punts. If not, I would assume that Aubrey Quarles will resume his kickoff return duties. He only averaged 21.0 yards per return over 26 kicks last year, and he's not as explosive an option as Banks, but again...Banks is so freaking little!! How many hits can he take? Maybe I'm making too big a deal about his size, but...150 pounds!! And that's a kind estimate!!

Summary

As TB said in yesterday's comments, if you have basically the same cast of characters and infinitely better coaching, that suggests that you will be better. I cannot determine how much that applies to the offense, but I can definitely see how that applies to the defense. Between Harold, Hrebec, Moore, and maybe Hartman, there is some underclass talent and athleticism here. Combined with some decent seniors--Fitzgerald, Pomele, Herndon--I could see this defense improving a decent amount in 2009. In 2010, however, that may be a different story. But we're not talking about 2010 yet. If Snyder is able to execute at least a small turnaround and get K-State to six or seven wins, and lord knows they should at least get back to five with games against a rebuilding UL-Lafayette team (yes, they're rebuilding despite not being that great last year) and TWO 1-AA teams (UMass, Tennessee Tech), then it will likely be the defense making the biggest difference.

I can't escape the nagging feeling that K-State will upset either Kansas or Missouri (or, technically, both I guess) this year, simply because a) they'll be improved enough to throw in a scare against somebody, and a young Missouri team with 25-30 freshmen, RSFrs, or sophomores on the two-deep is always going to be a prime candidate for a scare, and b) Bill Snyder is a combined 8-1 against Gary Pinkel and Mark Mangino (5-0 against Pinkel). If they win one of those two games and hold serve at home against Texas A&M and Colorado...well, that's six wins even if they don't win a game on the road all year (aside from the baffling trip to Lafayette, LA, on September 12). I think almost all K-State fans would consider that a pretty damn good season, even though the overall talent level still has quite a way to go before Bill Snyder can think about sneaking in and stealing another North (or, of course, Big 12) title.

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Projections on Friday.