SB Nation - Deon Murphy

Opening Our Files: Roundup on Kansas State Previews & Other Wildcats Notes

Nestor — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:00:30 -0000

We will leave it to others for now to write and speculate about UCLA making a move in the Pac-10. Here on the home page of BN, we will stick to the mantra that has worked for us for years: keep our focus on our next opponent. With a record of 4-8 in 2008, we are not the kind of program that has the luxury to look ahead. Coming into this season the goal for Rick Neuheisel and his football team was to get into a bowl game with at least 6 regular season victories. With a 2-0 start and a win at a difficult place like the Neyland Stadium, it puts us in a must win situation this week in our last remaining non conference game before the start of a tough Pac-10 schedule.

Our next opponent – Kansas State Wildcats – are off to a very rough start in 2009. The Wildcats struggled to beat UMass at home (a team which just started playing D-1A ball this year) and then they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 15-17. The takes from our SBN colleagues at Bring On The Cats (BTC) are understandably gloomy. Sportsline.com also put their recent loss "in perspective":

Let's put this one in perspective: Louisiana had not defeated a school from a BCS conference since Sept. 14, 1996, when Jake Delhomme led the Ragin' Cajuns to a 29-22 upset of No. 25 Texas A&M. Overall, the Cajuns were just 1-15 against teams from the Big 12 Conference.

That, however, was before Saturday's 17-15 victory over Kansas State in Lafayette.

"It's probably disheartening to a lot of people," coach Bill Snyder said of the loss, which dipped the Wildcats to 1-1. "I want our guys to be disappointed."

Still, if anyone wants to get all smug and disrespect the KSU, I’d suggest browsing through Tennessee blogs and message boards last week and revisit those bold predictions of the Volunteers cruising to a victory.

Last week it was our team that went into the opponent’s turf with nothing to lose. This week it will be the Kansas State Wildcats, who will be coming into the Rose Bowl as double digit underdogs, looking to sneak up with nothing to lose on a Bruin football team and fanbase feeling good about a SEC road win. Add to those factors we will most likely be breaking in a true freshman QB as a starter, a revamped OL which is improving but still working to gel as a unit, and all the inexperience at other offensive skill positions, Bruins will need to be on high alert. So with those toplines let’s get to some initial notes on Kansas Sate.

The story of these Wildcats begin with their head coach Bill Snyder who returned to Manhattan to clean up the mess left behind by inept regime of Ron Prince. If CRN’s return to UCLA is the "return of the prodigious son," Snyder’s return to Manhattan can be looked as "the Return Of the Godfather". Paul Meyerberg from the New York Times’ put Snyder’s record in perspective in his pre-season Wildcat preview:

The Wildcats went 137-445-18 from 1935-1988, the year before Snyder’s arrival. The program finished with only five winning seasons over this 54-year span: 1936, 1953-54, 1970 and 1982; that’s three fewer winning seasons than the program had winless seasons over that time. When Snyder arrived in late 1988, the program was mired in a streak of 27 consecutive games without a win (under Stan Parrish, the new coach at Ball State). While he did not immediately make K.S.U. into a winner – the Wildcats won 18 games in his first four seasons – the program took the next step forward in 1993, when it finished 9-3-1 and set a team record for points in a season (312). That year marked the first of 11 nine-win or better seasons in 12 years for the Wildcats, including a stretch from 1997 to 2003 of six 11-win seasons in seven years, making K-State only the second program in F.B.S. history to have such an extended streak of tremendous play. In 1998, an historic win over rival Nebraska pushed K-State to the top spot in the A.P. poll, the first time the team stood atop the college football landscape. That year – which ended with the Wildcats at No. 4 nationally – might have been the apex of the program, but Snyder continued to field annual conference and B.C.S. contenders. Kansas State won its first conference championship since 1934 in 2003, when it upset heavily favored and then-No. 1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. However, the team struggled in the following two seasons, finishing a combined 9-15, leading many to question whether Snyder could still coach at a high level. Hence Snyder’s decision after the 2004 season (mutual, by all accounts) to step down, leading K.S.U. to hire Prince.

Well Prince ran the program into the ground (just like Karl Dorrell). Luckily for KSU it took them three years to recognize that fact, so they brought in Synder to clean up the mess. Apparently he is kind of a character as noted by the bloggers at Barking Carnival (Texas Longhorns blog) in their hilarious 2009 preview of Kansas State. It’s pretty funny (not very politically correct) read, all though I am sure it’s not amusing to fans of KSU (and it includes the usual easy cheap shots at Neuheisel that seems to be SOP for fans of most Big-12 teams).

As for the team, the biggest challenge for Kansas State this season has been replacing quarterback Josh Freeman, who was a first round draft pick in this year’s NFL draft. Freeman left KSU after his junior season, setting the school’s holds career mark for passing yards (8,078), touchdowns (40), completions (663), attempts (1,121) and total offense (8,080). So far the QBs seeking to step up for Freeman have been struggling. From TB at BTC:

At least in my case, I think we undersold how important Josh Freeman was to this team. I know fans from other schools ran him down as all hype and no results, but we're seeing right now that he truly was about the only reason this program wasn't 2-10 the last two years.

I also think Carson Coffman and Grant Gregory are victims of the standard Freeman set. For all the knocks on Freeman, he had a cannon for an arm and was pretty accurate generally. Coffman and Gregory are being asked to learn an incredibly complicated offensive system on the fly. They also don't have a lot of experience; in Coffman's case, that's because he's been second-string to a first-round NFL pick for two years, and in Gregory's case it's because he was behind Matt Groethe at USF.

I imagine Coffman and Gregory’s struggle have the Wildcats frustrated because at least per the pre-season reviews they had some weapons to work with and were coming into the season with a decent offensive line:

Despite losing Murphy (Deon Murphy, who finished third on the team in receptions with 37, and second on the squad in receiving yards (555) and touchdowns (6)) and Pierce (Ernie Pierce, whose 15.7 yards per catch average (24 for 424 yards) led the team), the deepest position on the Kansas State offense is wide receiver. The team brings back the 2008 Big 12 offensive newcomer of the year in the senior Brandon Banks, who led the team in receptions (67), yards (1,049) and touchdowns (9) in his first season with the program. Banks, like Murphy before him, excels in the return game, as shown in his 27.7 yards per kick return average. He will be joined at receiver by the senior Aubrey Quarles (34 receptions for 407 yards) and the junior Lamark Brown (24 for 178). Brown spent much of his 2008 season at running back, leading the team in rushing (412 yards). Another weapon to watch in the passing game is the senior tight end Jeron Mastrud, who made 38 receptions for 455 yards a season ago. The senior Keithen Valentine is expected to assume the starting running back role, but the freshman Jarell Childs and the sophomore Logan Dold will also receive carries. The offensive line may have lost three starters, but the team does return a numbers of players with past starting experience. Leading the way is the senior Nick Stringer, a 2008 all-Big 12 honorable mention pick at left tackle. He brings 23 career starts into his final season, most among all Wildcat offensive linemen. Stringer and guard Eric Benoit are the only seniors on the current two-deep, so this will be a young group in 2009. Still, the line could be surprisingly strong this fall, especially if it gets good production from the plethora of sophomores battling for starting roles.

Brandon Banks is off to a slow start for the Wilcats per Sportsline.com. Banks had just three catches for 33 yards against Louisiana, after catching seven balls for 67 yards in the opening win over UMass. So, if I were the Bruin DBs, I’d keep a close eye on him. Meanwhile, DB Daniel Thomas is off to good start as he has put together back to back 100 yards rushing games (I know, I know ... look at the opponent) in his first two games (136 yards in 27 carries against Louisiana, which followed a 104 yard game against UMass).

I think it will be interesting to see how the Bruin defense comes out on Saturday. I am sure it’s not lost on them that despite their solid (some would call it outstanding) performance in last two weeks, they didn’t really come out and set a dominating tone in their first series. Especially as good as the performances have been from Rahim Moore, ATV, Reggie Carter, Brian Price, and the Bosworth brothers, we can use more focused performance from kids such as Akeem Ayers. Our defense still has room to grow to reach it full potential, and the team with a new quarterback will be really looking to them to set the tone on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball Wildcats have some athletes on the defensive side with two solid ends on the frontline:

The team returns two solid ends in the sophomore Brandon Harold (45 tackles, 10.5 for loss, 3 sacks), a 2008 freshman all-American, and the senior Eric Childs (52 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Harold is the most likely current Wildcat to continue the team’s recent tradition of standout defensive ends. In the middle, K.S.U. should be very excited about what the senior Jeffrey Fitzgerald can do for the team’s run defense (217.7 yards per game last fall). Fitzgerald, who sat out all of last fall after transferring in from Virginia, may be the best player on the entire defense.

The Wildcats return two starters at linebacker, including the sophomore Alex Hrebec. A former walk-on, Hrebec stuffed the stat sheet last fall with 68 tackles (4 for loss), 2.5 sacks and an interception. It’s rare enough to see a walk-on earn a starting role for a B.C.S.-conference program; it’s rarer still to see a walk-on start as a redshirt freshman. Joining him at linebacker is the senior Ulla Pomele (58 tackles, 7.5 for loss), a former JUCO transfer. K-State’s secondary is led by the junior Joshua Moore, a 2008 honorable mention all-Big 12 pick and a potential all-American this fall. Moore concluded his sophomore campaign first on the team in both tackles (76) and interceptions (3), illustrating his importance to the overall success of the defense. Moore is the best Wildcat cornerback since Terence Newman. He is joined in the secondary by three talented safeties: Chris Carney, Tysyn Hartman and Courtney Herndon.

Well not sure if Harold will be available for this weekend’s game as per their roster report on CBS he has been sitting out with an injury (along with DE Kadero Terrell and AR Aubrey Quarles). Perhaps the Kansas State fans who are lurking on BN this week, can provide us with a more up to date take on the injury situation. As for the other guys, Pete Fiutak from College Football News called Joshua Moore the best defensive player for KSU heading into this season.

I think the key here will be all about game management. We will need our quarterback to do what Prince did fairly effectively as a first year starter in his first two games: minimize mistakes and do what he can to keep the chains moving. This will be one of those games that will present Chow and his offense an opportunity to execute the strategy of picking up 4 yards or more per rushing attempts, and putting the offense in manageable situations on second and third downs. If we can combine that with continued stellar play from our special teams we will have a good chance to keep the momentum going heading into a bye week.

That’s what I have for now. I am looking forward to learning up about Kansas State, the same way we keep discussing Tennessee this past week. We will be reading up more on KSU during the week. If you have your own perspective to offer up wrt to Saturdays’ matchups fire the quick takes in the comment threads and the extended ones in FanPosts. That invitation goes out to all Kansas State fans who might be visiting BN for the first time. We are looking forward to chatting up football the same way we had fun going back and forth (in respectful and classy way) with the Volunteer fans from last game week. Football should always be about fun.

GO BRUINS.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: K-State

TB — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:29:46 -0000

Sorry this is really late from BOTC. I was out of town all last week and wasn't checking my email, so this got ignored. Anyway, CBS Sports and SB Nation's Colorado blog, The Ralphie Report, are this official conference preview. Here is BOTC's "outsider's" conference preview, intended to be a lot like something you'd find in a magazine.

Offense (Six Returning Starters)

Everything begins at the quarterback position, and K-State has a big hole to fill there after Josh Freeman left to become a first-round NFL draft pick. The favorite to replace him is junior Carson Coffman, and if you've followed Big 12 football recently, yes, he is the brother of former Missouri tight end Chase Coffman. Coffman was the starting QB for the first-team squad in the spring game, and played very well in completing 25 of 36 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, that was against the second-string defense, but it was a much more impressive performance than we had seen in prior spring games. All signs still point to Coffman being the starter in the first game against UMass, as it doesn't appear Grant Gregory, Collin Klein, or Joseph Kassanavoid have done anything to unseat the frontrunner.

Running back is a mystery position for the Cats this season, as it was one of many areas on the roster about which former coach Ron Prince apparently had no understanding when it came to roster management. Last year's leading rusher, Lamark Brown, is moving to wide receiver. Logan Dold, the second-leading rusher among running backs, moved to safety. The next running back, Keithen Valentine, has had two good spring games in a row, and almost nothing to show for it during the regular season. Last season, Valentine rushed for 129 yards total.

Snyder announced that heralded recruit Daniel Thomas will likely start the season at running back, which probably makes him the favorite to be the starter against UMass. Thomas is a dynamic athlete who also has the size -- 6'2", 227 lbs. -- to be among the biggest running backs we've had in a while.

Whatever production K-State is going to get from its wide receivers, it had better get it this season. The squad's best receivers are almost all seniors, which will leave a big hole in 2010. However, this group looks like one of the team's strengths, led by 2008's Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year, Brandon Banks. Banks is the undersized receiver with blazing speed, and the best home-run threat K-State has had since Darren Sproles started at running back.

Along with Banks, senior Attrail Snipes and junior Lamark Brown could add some depth and firepower at this position. Snipes didn't get much of a chance to play wide receiver last year, but he was a highly touted junior college recruit who could make an impact. As already mentioned, Brown has moved back to wide receiver after playing running back last season. He's another gifted athlete who could give opposing defenses headaches if he picks up the position quickly.

Tight end should be a position at which K-State is fairly solid this season. Senior Jeron Mastrud returns after a 2008 season in which he caught 38 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. Solid numbers for a tight end, and he's that reliable target you want a new quarterback to have. The backups at tight end are a bit of a question mark, with newcomers Prizell Brown (junior college transfer) and Travis Tannahill (freshman) being the most likely candidates to spell Mastrud.

One thing you can say about K-State's offensive line is that it has a lot of players with returning starts. Given that Prince liked to rotate players around, nobody can be absolutely sure who will start where and whether the prior experience will be much help, but at least this unit isn't trying to break in a bunch of true freshman and transfers. Nick Stringer anchors the line at left tackle, bringing 23 starts into 2009. Completing Coffman's blind-side protection on the left side will probably be Zach Kendall, who has five starts to his credit.

Wade Weibert and Trevor Viers will vie for the starting spot at center. Viers has seven starts to his credit, but Weibert was a top-50 junior college recruit who started with the first team during the spring game.

On the right side, Clyde Aufner probably gets the nod at right tackle, and Colten Freeze probably starts at guard. Aufner saw action in three games last year as a redshirt freshman, while Freeze had three starts last season as a redshirt freshman. Expect to see a lot of competition for these positions, with sophomore Kaleb Drinkgern and junior Kenny Mayfield pushing for playing time.

Defense (Eight Returning Starters)

To say that K-State's 2008 defense was putrid would be kind. Out of 119 FBS teams, K-State ranked 117 in total defense. So yeah, things are bad. But with a strong new coaching staff and several talented players returning, improvement is likely on this side of the ball in 2009. The real question is how much improvement will be made, and whether it will be enough to have a significant effect on the season.

Before Brandon Harold's injury in preseason practice, the defensive line looked to be the strength of the team. Harold was a freshman all-america last season, registering 45 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss last season, but we don't know how soon he'll return after he dinged up his knee in practice. Jeffrey Fitzgerald is likely to start at defensive tackle, although an offseason arrest on suspicion of DUI may temporarily derail those plans. Fitzgerald is a transfer from Virginia, and with the Cavaliers 137 tackles and 23.5 tackles for loss in 25 starts.

Other probable starters on the defensive line are Daniel Calvin at DT and Eric Childs at DE. Childs was honorable mention all-conference last season as a junior while making 11 starts and recording 52 tackles. Calvin is a big body in the middle at 6'3" and 310 lbs., but didn't have the type of season K-State was hoping for last season. Look for newcomer Kadero Terrell, a hybrid defensive end/linebacker to see some time at DE this season, too, if the spring game was any indication.

Linebacker looks to be one of K-State's weaker units this season after losing three players who had multiple starts last season. However, the defense is moving to a 4-2-5 alignment in an attempt to combat the Big 12's prolific spread offenses, so fewer linebackers will be required. One of the positions will be occupied by sophomore Alex Hrebec, who registered 68 tackles in only six starts last season. The other linebacker spot will be filled either by John Houlik or Ulla Pomele. Pomele had the better season last year and would be the choice of most K-State fans at this position.

In the secondary, it begins with cornerback Joshua Moore. In 2006, Moore was a freshman all-america before being injured late in the season. He returned to action in 2008 after redshirting the 2007 season as a result of apparent academic issues. Moore was one of the few bright spots on last season's atrocious defense, tallying 76 tackles, three interceptions and 12 passes broken up. The starter at the other cornerback position is still uncertain. Senior Billy McClellan is probably the leading candidate seeing action in 10 games last season.

The safeties will be expected to play a bigger role in Vic Koenning's and Chris Cosh's 4-2-5 scheme. Courtney Herndon will likely start at one of the safety positions after starting 10 games and recording 61 tackles last season. Chris Carney also had a solid season last year, with 53 tackles and five passes broken up in only four starts.

Defensive back will be a position to keep an eye on at K-State this season. Two players who have switched position, Logan Dold and Tysyn Hartman, could see action at DB this season. Also, newcomer Emmanuel Lamur is one of the more intriguing additions to the team. Lamur is a big defensive back at 6'4" and 214 lbs., and the coaches seem to be pretty high on him.

Special Teams

One of the hallmarks of a Bill Snyder-coached team is solid special teams play. Coincidentally, that was about the only thing Ron Prince's teams did consistently well. This season, K-State's special teams should be solid again. In all likelihood, Brandon Banks and Aubrey Quarles will continue to return kickoffs, and Banks averaged 27.7 yards per return in that duty last season. It's not clear right now who will return punts for K-State after last year's punt returner, Deon Murphy, left the team.

One position where K-State should see significant improvement this season is punter. Last season, with George Pierson and D.J. Fulhage splitting time, punting was a weakness, as the Cats finished 10th in the Big 12 in net punting. Panjandrum attended the spring game and was very impressed with newcomer Ryan Doerr, who is the likely starter this season.

At kicker, junior Josh Cherry is the likely starter despite seeing very limited action behind Brooks Rossman last season. Doerr is also listed as a kicker and was pretty solid at that position in high school, so it's possible Doerr could pull double duty.

Key Losses

Offense: Josh Freeman (QB), Deon Murphy (WR), Ernie Pierce (WR)

Defense: Ian Campbell (DE), Ray Cheatham (S), Reggie Walker (LB), Blair Irvin (S)

Special Teams: Brooks Rossman (K), Deon Murphy (PR)

Season Forecast

K-State's non-conference slate features two FCS teams, meaning the Wildcats will have to win seven games to reach bowl eligibility this season. While that's not impossible given the upgrade at every position on the coaching staff, it could be a bridge too far for a team that's 10-14 the last two seasons. In another interesting twist, K-State plays twelve games in twelve consecutive weeks, so it remains to be seen whether the lack of a bye week will hamper this team late in the season.

The Wildcats open up with a home game against UMass, dubbed by the athletic department as the "K-State Family Reunion" because it's Bill Snyder's first game back. Though Snyder's clubs are notoriously slow starters, the Wildcats should be able to handle an FCS team in the home opener. The next week, in a strange twist of scheduling, K-State travels to Lafayette, La., to play the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Last season, UL nearly upset the Cats in Manhattan. The Cajuns lost their quarterback and running back to graduation, however, and as such probably won't have quite enough firepower for a K-State team that should be improved on defense under Koenning and Cosh.

On September 19th, Snyder will take his club to Pasadena, Calif., to meet up with an old nemesis from the Big 8 (and early Big 12) days in Rick Neuheisel. Of course, Neuheisel coaches UCLA now, not Colorado, and last season's UCLA team was, well, pretty bad. The combined record of the teams UCLA defeated was 12-37. Despite that, the smart money would be to bet on UCLA in this game. Snyder's teams usually do not play well in September, and that will probably be amplified this season because it's Snyder's first year on the job.

After two weeks on the road, K-State then returns home for another FCS opponent, Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles were 3-9 last season and shouldn't pose a threat to K-State, especially in Manhattan.

K-State opens Big 12 play with a neutral-site game against Iowa State at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, Paul Rhoads, after two atrocious seasons under Gene Chizik. No game is a given for K-State this season, but last year's Wildcats defeated Iowa State in the last game of Prince's lame-duck tenure and, on a neutral field, should be able to topple the Cyclones again. After that, the going gets significantly more difficult, as K-State travels to Lubbock, Texas, to take on Captain Leach. Despite losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the Red Raiders are one of those programs that is more likely to reload than rebuild, and games in Lubbock are usually a nightmare for opposing teams.

A home date with Texas A&M awaits after K-State returns from the South Plains. In Snyder's first tenure, matchups with A&M were usually nightmares, but these aren't your older cousin's Aggies. Last season, K-State hammered A&M in College Station, and while the Aggies should be a little better this season, signs of significant improvement are absent. With K-State still breaking in a new system, this game will probably be a little closer than last season's meeting, but Snyder & Co. should still be able to pick up the win.

Another home date follows as Colorado comes to town the next week. The Buffs were one of the few programs -- Texas being the other -- that Prince's teams didn't completely suck against. Ol' Prince went 2-1 against Dan Hawkins in three tries, with the lone defeat being a one-point decision in Boulder last year. Colorado is the wildcard of the North, as most have expected them to be a lot better the last couple seasons than they actually were, and this is a game whose prediction could change based on how Colorado plays. Given that it's later in the season and the fact that I now live in the "Show-Me" state, I'm going to wait on Colorado to prove itself and call this a narrow win for K-State.

So if you're keeping score at home, my prognostications now have the Cats at 6-2. However, the schedule turns disastrous at this point, with the following games looming: @ Oklahoma, KU, Missouri, @ Nebraska. Obviously, the Oklahoma game can be written off as a loss at this point. Based on preseason pure roster talent, KU and Missouri are also likely losses for K-State, even at home. Nebraska is also among the favorites to win the North, so a game in Lincoln does not bode well for K-State to close the season. The season will turn on whether Snyder can find a win in this murderous finish. On the bright side, Snyder's clubs typically play their best ball in November, going 25-4 in November home games since 1990 (H/T, Phil Steele). If KU gets crushed by its South Division gauntlet and drops a surprise game against Colorado or Nebraska, the Cats may have a chance to pick up a win in a home rivalry game. Similarly, if Mizzou ends up rebuilding rather than reloading, that's a game the Cats could win if things are going well.

Predicted Order of Finish

Big 12 North

Nebraska

Missouri

K-State

Colorado

Iowa State

Big 12 South

Texas

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas Tech

Baylor

Texas A&M

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Offensive Preseason Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

Can Old Man Snyder get those kids off his lawn and get K-State back to the top of the North?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

As we round the home stretch with opponent previews, it's time to look west to Manhattan, where Bill Snyder looks to deliver Miracle #2 to central Kansas.

Bill Snyder has an interesting job ahead of him for 2009 and beyond. He enters a Big 12 North that is either much more balanced than it was 10 or 20 years ago (before it was the Big 12 North), or with a different balance of power, depending on how you view the long-term prospects of both Missouri and Kansas. When he brought Kansas State up from the ashes 20 years ago, Kansas and Missouri were basically defunct programs. Now that they're both on much less shaky footing two decades later, can Snyder deliver the talent necessary to get back atop the division? Is it possible for all three programs to coexist at a reasonably high level?

Even though Gary Pinkel never actually beat Bill Snyder on the field, it's been my theory for a while that Pinkel still played a major role in driving Snyder toward retirement through recruiting, particularly in the Kansas City area (thank you, Andy Hill). Missouri signed Chase Coffman and James Stigall in 2005, and Tony Temple, Chase Patton, and Jerrill Humphrey in 2004--three of these five players could have made a pretty significant impact in keeping the Wildcat program afloat in Snyder's last year or two, and while he would have stood a good chance at landing all of these guys in the mid- to late-1990s, they were signing with Missouri in the 2000s. And that's to say nothing of Kerry Meier (whose brother went to KSU), who signed with KU and could have helped as well.

Anyway, with a few years off to hop on the rejuvenation machine, Snyder faces a pretty tough task, particularly in 2009, where a mediocre-but-upperclass roster awaits his magic touch.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 192.3 (79th in the country, 9th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 419-430 (-11)
Conference Scoring Margin: 231-339 (-108)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #85 UL-Lafayette, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #117 North Texas, 1-AA Montana State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #65 Louisville, #82 Colorado

So...0-7 versus the Top 84 teams, 5-0 versus #85 and beyond. Overall ranking of #79. God bless the S&P+ rankings...they make things so clean and pretty sometimes.

Despite the fact that they came within one point of bowl eligibility (they lost to CU, 14-13), this really was a pretty dreadful K-State team. Their five non-Colorado conference losses were by 30 points (Texas Tech), 23 (Oklahoma), 31 (Kansas), 17 (Missouri...who led by 31 before Brandon Banks went off against Mizzou's scrubs...damn Ron Prince), and 28 (Nebraska). A once-proud program was left to feast on a relatively easy schedule to rack up five wins, but the overall talent level of this team simply wasn't very high. Ron Prince rode into Manhattan with the reputation of a master recruiter, but combined with Snyder's last couple of rather unimpressive recruiting classes, there just was not much to be excited about. The only truly fast guys (Banks and, to a lesser extent, Deon Murphy) weighed about as much as Miley Cyrus, their big guys weren't very good, and...well, their defense was pretty god-awful*. Snyder should pretty quickly be able to improve the latter of those three issues, but the other issues might take a while, especially since Murphy's no longer with the team, and they still don't appear to have a running back worth a damn.

* There was also the issue of Josh Freeman not being developed even 1% beyond the QB he was when he came to school in 2006--any improvement he made was from experience, not coaching...I mean, did they really not have anybody to help him with his footwork? It was atrocious! But I don't want to turn this preview into a big anti-Prince screed, so I left this as an asterisked issue.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bill Snyder
Record at K-State: 136-68-1 in 17 years (135-58-1 after the first year)

With as many great Snyder pieces as have come out this summer, I won't go into a lot of detail here. Snyder pulled off one of the bigger miracles college football has ever seen, dragging a program that had experienced four winning seasons in 50 years (none better than 6-5 since 1954) to nine wins or better in 10 of 11 years (11 wins or better in six of seven), to a Big 12 title in 2003, and to within a Sirr Parker of a national title game appearance in 1998. He produced a ridiculous amount of great assistant coaches, including (in alphabetical order) Phil Bennett, Bret Bielema, Dana Dimel, Jim Leavitt, Mark Mangino, Bob Stoops, Mike Stoops, and Brent Venables. There is no telling how much talent resides on his current staff--we'll know the answer soon enough--but his 17 years in Manhattan were unbelievably successful. You can't even call it a resurrection, because that suggests previous life. He built something out of nothing, and now he's coming back to do it again. I'm not particularly optimistic that he can succeed, at least not to previous levels, but there's no question in my mind that he can at least produce a winning program again, and after the Dark Years of Ron Prince, that's an improvement.

Alright, to the numbers!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 98.0 (#70)
Success Rate+: 95.2 (#78)
PPP+: 101.7 (#61)

Standard Downs S&P+: 96.6 (#78)
Passing Downs S&P+: 87.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 97.3 (#73)

Q1 S&P+: 106.6 (#54)
Q2 S&P+: 97.1 (#77)
Q3 S&P+: 81.7 (#110)
Q4 S&P+: 92.4 (#91)

1st Down S&P+: 95.9 (#80)
2nd Down S&P+: 81.4 (#115)
3rd Down S&P+: 102.8 (#57)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 94.2 (#86)
Rushing SR+: 101.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 85.6 (#99)

Standard Downs: 90.4 (#94)
Passing Downs: 85.5 (#100)

Redzone: 96.5 (#85)

Line Yards+: 100.6 (#62)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 101.5 (#58)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#89)
Passing PPP+: 113.6 (#39)

Standard Downs: 104.7 (#48)
Passing Downs: 87.2 (#95)

Redzone: 99.1 (#65)

Sack Rate+: 186.0 (#7)

The K-State rushing and passing games were almost complete opposites in 2008. The Wildcats were reasonably efficient (at least average) running the ball but had no explosiveness whatsoever. Meanwhile, the passing game was relatively explosive (39th in the country in PPP+) but inefficient and inconsistent. KSU wasn't good enough at any one thing to carry them through dicey games and really only played in 2-3 close games all year. Either they were more talented than their opponents (North Texas, Montana State, Iowa State, etc.), or they were overwhelmed by more athletic, more disciplined teams. You could honestly say the same thing about Missouri's 1999-2001 teams.

Other notes:

I wish I had a decade's worth of play-by-play data. I'd love to see if there were any other first-round quarterbacks who led offenses that ranked 95th or worse in most Passing Downs categories. You look at the top of the Passing Downs Passing S&P+ rankings, and you see most of the top QBs in college football--Mark Sanchez (1st), Daryl Clark (2nd), Colt McCoy (3rd), Sam Bradford (4th), Matthew Stafford (5th), Tim Tebow (6th), Jevan Snead (7th), Max Hall (10th), Zac Robinson (11th), Chase Daniel (12th). Josh Freeman's offense ranked between those of Idaho and Kent State. Not the most sparkling of company.
Interesting split--the K-State O-line was 62nd in run blocking and 7th in pass blocking. You figure Freeman does get some credit for his elusiveness and ability to take a hit and still get a throw off. Both of those things would help sack numbers. But still, that's a pretty big difference.
The K-State offense was mediocre in the first quarter, bad in the second, and pretty damn awful in the third and fourth. And they were one of the worst offenses in the country on second downs.

Quarterback

He's a Coffman--he's got to be pretty good, right?

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Carson Coffman (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Grant Gregory (6'1, 205, Sr.)
Daniel Thomas (6'2, 227, Jr.)
Joseph Kassanavoid (6'3, 239, RSFr.)
Collin Klein (6'5, 227, RSFr.)

But that's enough about Josh Freeman. It's time to talk about...well, whoever's going to be K-State's quarterback in 2009. The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

But the most likely candidate, it seems, is Carson Coffman, middle brother of the Coffman clan. After looking pretty iffy in scrub time against North Texas, he was downright decent in, well, scrub time, in conference play. Against the backups of Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, Coffman completed 13 of 17 passes for 179 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. You really can't get a good read for how those numbers translate to success, but he has racked up a bit of experience in the past two seasons, and, well, he's a Coffman. He's got to be pretty decent, right? Who knows what Coffman's ceiling is (or the ceiling of any of these guys, for that matter)? What's certain is that the winner of the QB battle will be taking the reins of a pretty different offense than what they were recruited to K-State to run.

Running Backs

Keithen Valentine's shining moment in 2008--a touchdown against North Texas

2008 Unit Ranking: #119 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected HB Depth Chart
Keithen Valentine (5'8, 193, Sr.)
Dee Bell (5'8, 177, So.)
Frank Delarue (5'8, 200, So.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jarell Childs (6'1, 220, RSFr.)
Jay Hanley (6'1, 235, RSFr.)

Keithen Valentine made news last year by coming out of nowhere to win the starting running back job at the beginning of the 2008 season. He didn't keep it very long--he rushed for a combined 118 yards in 31 carries against less-than-stalwart North Texas, Montana State and Louisville defenses--before he gave way to others. First, it was Lamark Brown, putting up an impressive 137 yards in 29 carries in a tight win over UL-Lafayette...and then managing just 287 yards in 88 carries (3.3 per carry) the rest of the way. Then something called a Logan Dold took over, carrying 21 times for 115 yards in a win over Texas A&M...and following that with 131 yards in 42 carries (3.1 per carry) the rest of the wa. Apparently Ron Prince would have found more success in the running game if just started a different guy each game, no matter the quality.

When describing the quality of the 2008 K-State RB corps, I have two items that tell the story: 1) as you see above, K-State had the 119th-ranked FBS RB corps. Yes, that's out of 120 teams. Only Washington's was worst. 2) The two guys who split the most carries for the Wildcats in 2008--Brown and Dold--are playing different positions in 2009 (Brown a WR, Dold a DB). What's left is Valentine and...well, a couple of other guys. You can't really gauge spring game stats for much, but here is a countdown of the number of rushes different players saw:

Valentine: 20 carries
Jarell Childs: 12
Frank Delarue: 7
Dee Bell: 4

Maybe that means something, maybe it doesn't, but if I had to guess, that's roughly the split you'll see during the season...at least at the start. And again...Valentine was unimpressive enough last year that he lost his starting job to two guys who weren't good enough to stay at running back. Something tells me Bill Snyder can't hit the recruiting trail hard enough--he's already locked down a commit from 4-star Wichita Northwest RB DeMarcus Robinson (who had an offer from Mizzou, for what it's worth). Unfortunately, Robinson's still going to be at Northwest this fall. Somebody's got to run the ball for K-State in 2009, but I'm not sure anybody's going to run it particularly well.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

K-State's best RB and WR could combine for an average of 5 feet, 7.5 inches, and 171 pounds. You're fun to watch, Brandon, but eat a steak. Or two.

2008 Unit Ranking: #48 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.)
Aubrey Quarles (5'11, 195, Sr.)
Lamark Brown (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Attrail Snipes (6'1, 180, Sr.)
Adrian Hilburn (6'1, 195, Jr.)
Matt Wykes (6'2, 209, Sr.)
Brice VIgnery (6'1, 204, Sr.)
Chase Mejia (5'10, 170, Jr.)
Russell Simons (6'1, 206, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Jeron Mastrud (6'6, 253, Sr.)
Jayson Cuba (6'2, 240, So.)
Gabe Gantz (6'6, 252, Jr.)

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

As a whole, this unit is low on proven quantities and low on years of eligibility. As you'll see, this is a recurring trend on this roster, thanks at least in part to Ron Prince signing something like 19 JUCOs in his final recruiting class. This is either a good or bad thing for Bill Snyder, depending on how you look at it--Snyder will get a chance to pretty quickly insert his own recruited players into the mix, but he'll also be looking at a youth movement in year #2 or #3, which isn't a favorable situation considering Old Man Snyder is...well, old, and probably isn't going to stay on the job for ten years. His time is relatively finite, and he's not going to have an experienced team of his recruits until about year #4 or #5.

Offensive Line

This is the only good Nick Stringer picture I could find.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Nick Stringer (6'6, 271, Sr.)
~~G Brock Unruh (6'6, 288, Sr.)~~
T Clyde Aufner (6'7, 288, So.)
G Colten Freeze (6'5, 287, So.)
C Zach Kendall (6'3, 287, Jr.)
G Eric Benoit (6'4, 286, Sr.)
T Trevor Viers (6'5, 284, Jr.)
G Kenneth Mayfield (6'4, 311, Jr.)
C Wade Weibert (6'4, 287, Jr.)
T Kaleb Drinkgern (6'7, 270, So.)
G Aaron Jackson (6'2, 310, RSFr.)

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, ~~and even though I could have sworn I read something about Brock Unruh being lost for the season, I can't find any such article now, so apparently I made it up~~ though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. ~~Those two~~ Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

Summary

Best-case scenario: the line congeals well, Carson Coffman (or whoever) looks confident, experienced and poised in the pocket, a solid receiver emerges alongside Brandon Banks. All of this opens up lanes for the running game. K-State is able to move the ball reasonably effectively, enough that a suddenly well-coached defense is able to look at least a smidge like the KSU defenses of old, and K-State wins a bunch of 24-20 type of games.

Worst-case scenario: the new QB stinks, the RBs are terrible, Banks is too little to get open consistently (and his supporting cast stinks), and a line whose stats were propped up by Josh Freeman's size and escapability isn't good enough to make anybody look better. K-State's offense is worse than Iowa State's and Colorado's, and the defense is still a year or two away from competence.

I apparently hold Bill Snyder high enough in regard that I continuously look for evidence that this team can be good. It's certainly possible that good coaching can produce at least a competent running game, and that Coffman-to-Banks becomes a big-time combination, but the odds aren't superb on that one. Chances are, K-State struggles a bit in Snyder's first year. There just isn't enough skill position talent to get things done in the Big 12.

Kansas State Links

Bill C. — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:00:10 -0000

With these opponent links posts, I usually follow the same flow for most teams: 2008 recap, 2009 preview, spring recap, other. Works pretty well. At least, it works pretty well when your team doesn't hire a new (old) coach and find out that your craptastic former athletic director set up a secret arrangement with your craptastic former coach to continue to funnel money to him. That makes it a pretty unique offseason, no? I'll do my best to continue the themed approach...

2008 Recap

2009 Preview

2009 schedule
CFN.com: 2009 CFN Kansas State Preview
CFN.com: 2009 Kansas State Preview - Offense
CFN.com: 2009 Kansas State Preview - Defense
KC Star: Three seasons of observing make Coffman a K-State leader
KStateSports.com: Gregory enrolls at K-State

The Old Man

KC Star: He's a little grayer, but K-State's Snyder hasn't changed much
Topeka Capital-Journal: Snyder in new spot
KC Star's Campus Corner: The Family Plan
Bring On the Cats: A Star is Born

Seriously, Prince must have had some pretty incriminating pictures on somebody

ESPN.com: Kansas State sues to not pay former coach Ron Prince $3.2M
Bring On the Cats: The Board of Regents Audit: It Could Have Been Worse
KC Star: Snyder angered about K-State audit report
Bring On the Cats: Jason Whitlock Thinks You Are Really Stupid
Bring On the Cats: K-State's Athletic Department Priorities
ESPN.com: Kansas State suspends longtime administrators JIm Epps, Bob Cavello

Spring Recap

Bring On the Cats: Spring Cleaning (Part 1): The "Legacy" of Josh Freeman
Bring On the Cats: Spring Cleaning (Part 2): Coming Home
Bring On the Cats: The (Real) Spring Practice Report
KStateSports.com: Purple Dominates Spring Game
KStateSports.com: 4/23 Spring Practice update
KStateSports.com: 4/8 Spring Practice update
KStateSports.com: Wildcats discuss start of spring practice
ESPN.com: K-State WR Deon Murphy to enter supplemental draft

Et Cetera

Topeka Capital-Journal: Josh Freeman gets $10M guaranteed
KC Star: Desire to start gets Freeman's deal done with Buccaneers
KStateSports.com: K-State at UCLA to air on Fox Sports Net
Finally, in searching for a good pic of a KSU helmet with a white background (never found one), I came across either the greatest or worst helmet of all-time...not sure...could go either way...

Vikings Not Likely to Participate in the Supplemental Draft

Gonzo — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:54:47 -0000

Today, the National Football League will hold their annual Supplemental Draft. For those of you who don't know quite how the Supplemental Draft works, it is for players that have been declared ineligible in some way for the upcoming college football season and have chosen to leave school and try their luck with the National Football League. Those reasons may be academic, they may have to do with rules violations, or for numerous other things.

Every General Manager in the NFL will send an e-mail to the NFL's league office with the eight players that are eligible for this year's Supplemental Draft and what round pick they'd like to "bid" for each player, if they'd like to offer anything at all. When it comes to establishing priority, the 2009 NFL Draft order will be used. So if, for example, the Detroit Lions and the Vikings offer a fifth-round pick for a particular player, the Lions would be awarded that player since their fifth-round pick in the 2009 Draft was higher than Minnesota's. In turn, the Lions would then forfeit their fifth-round selection in the 2010 NFL Draft.

There are eight players eligible for this year's Supplemental Draft, but the Vikings are seen as unlikely to make an effort to acquire any of them. After the jump, there's a brief look at each of these players, to include what round they're projected to be taken in and why they're eligible for the Supplemental Draft.

Jeremy Jarmon, DE, Kentucky - Entered the Supplemental Draft due to a failed drug test. Honorable mention for the All-SEC team this past season. Outstanding sophomore year, but fell off a bit as a junior. Projected to fetch a fourth-round pick.

Deon Murphy, WR, Kansas State - Dismissed from the Wildcats' program a few months ago. Not a big guy, only standing at 5'9" and weighing in at 170 pounds, but is a very good open field runner. Could go somewhere in the fifth or sixth round range.

Corey Surrency, WR, Florida State - A very tall target (6'4", 205), at this point Surrency is a better athlete than a wide receiver. Surrency lost his college eligibility after it was found that he played two years of semi-professional indoor football after he turned 21 but before he enrolled at Florida State. Will probably end up in the fifth or sixth round range as well.

Joe McMahon, G, Central Michigan - Big, mauler type of guard that doesn't possess a lot of athleticism. Left school for "undisclosed personal reasons," which may or may not send up a red flag, I suppose. Not expected to be drafted today.

McKinner Dixon, DE, Texas Tech - Dixon joined the Supplemental Draft after becoming academically ineligible for the 2009 season. He was pretty much a backup in 2008, and while he has some pass-rush ability, he's non-existent against the run. Not expected to be drafted today.

Demetrice Morley, S, Tennessee - The good news on Morley is that he's a very athletic safety. The bad news is that he was kicked off the Volunteers' team by two different coaches, had an academic suspension, and a 2008 arrest in Florida for armed robbery. Some team might gamble a seventh-round pick on him, but I'd be shocked by anything higher than that.

Blake Boyd, LB, Western Kentucky - Classic overachiever. . .sort of a Heath Farwell-type. Academic issues have caused him to leave the Hilltoppers. Not expected to be drafted, but should get a camp invite as a special teamer type of addition.

Torris Magee, WR, Southern Miss - Got kicked off of the Golden Eagles' team after a burglary arrest. Fairly athletic receiver, and has good size (6'2", 215), but only average speed and fairly inconsistent hands mean that it's unlikely someone will burn a pick on him with the character issues he brings to the table.

I hope this has given everybody a bit of insight on the Supplemental Draft process and some of the names that are available. While the Vikings don't appear to be actively involved in this year's proceedings, it remains to be seen if any of the other NFC North teams will jump in or not.

Arizona Cardinals News: Supplemental Draft Preview

Hawkwind — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 01:00:12 -0000

While the NFL draft is a huge weekend in April that receives more buildup and publicity than Paris Hilton's birthday party, the red headed step child of the draft process is the yearly Supplemental Draft. It rarely get's much, if any, publicity and it'll take some serious googling to find any significant information on the S-draft or the players who are involved. For some quick facts about the S-draft, only 38 players have been selected in the 31 years that it's been in place and a team can select as many as seven players or not select a player at all. The Arizona Cardinals have only selected two players, Timm Rosenbach (1989) and Willie Williams (1990), although neither player really made an impact. Interest in the draft has wained over time considering that 23 players were selected from 1977 to 1990 but just 14 players have been selected since 1990. Last year there wasn't even a player who declared for the draft. Some big name players have come from this process including Bernie Kosar, Brian Bosworth, Chris Carter, Rob Moore, Jamal Williams and Jared Gaither (Raven's starting LT).

For those were aren't familiar with the process, it's much different the normal NFL draft and you won't even find coverage on it via your television. First the 'draft' is held tomorrow and it's basically a silent auction format in which teams submit bids (ala the round that they wish to select a prospect) and the winning bid gets the player and the subsequent pick in forfeited in the following April draft. For example if the Cardinals selected a prospect tommorrow with a fourth round pick, they'd lose their fourth round pick for the April 2010 draft, but there is no loss for submitting a non-winning bid. Normally the players in the draft are guys who have lost their eligibility for one reason or another. It's most often academic related but it can also include failing drug tests or getting booted from their college teams for any number of reasons. There are a handful of prospects who have entered the draft this year and there is at least one player who is thought of as a 'lock' to be selected. Here's a quick look at each, although for the record the Cardinals haven't shown much interest in any of these guys:

Jeremy Jarmon (DE, Kentucky): Jarmon, a former All-SEC defensive lineman, has great size (6-3, 278) and was thought of as one of the nation's top senior defensive ends entering the year. But after he tested positive for a banned substance, the NCAA ruled him ineligible for 2009, thus leaving him with the only option of making the jump to the NFL. He recently had an impressive workout for scouts and representatives from 18 teams and could go as early as the third round. He ran his 40 in a time of 4.78 seconds, posted 19 reps on the bench and reached 31 inches on his vertical jump. More importantly, he was said to be in good shape, looked smooth during position drills and interviewed well with NFL teams.

Stats over the past two seasons: 100 tackles, 23.5 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks

Fit with the Cardinals? You would think that Jarmon's size would put him on the Cardinals radar screen. Depending on which site you look at, Jarmon is listed anywhere from the low-270's to the low 280's so he's got the size to man the DE spot in a 3-4 defense. That's a hard position to find at times so putting in a late round bid would not be a terrible idea and it's conceivable that he could win the fourth DE job behind Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell and Kenny Iwebema.

Deon Murphy (WR, Kansas State): Murphy, a former Big 12 Newcomer of the Year, is a small receiver (5-10, 170) whose value is tied to his ability as a returner. Murphy is described as one of the "cleaner prospects" in this group because he left Kansas State because of a personality conflict with head coach Bill Snyder, as opposed to a team or NCAA suspension. As a returner, Murphy was third in the nation with 17.5 yards per return, but as a receiver he's struggled with drops and press coverage. As a pro he's projected mainly as a returner although he could make an impact in the slot where he can't be pressed.

Stats over the past two seasons: 97 receptions, 1,160 yards and 11 TDs. (also averaged 17.5 yards per punt return)

Fit with the Cardinals? The Cardinals have enough problems getting all of their receivers on the field. It doesn't make very much sense to draft another Steve Breaston, but stranger things have happened.

McKinner Dixon (DE, Texas Tech): Dixon is the first real 'problem child' of this group. On the good side, he has obvious talent considering that he's racked up 15 sacks in his two seasons at Texas Tech despite never really being a starter. The bad news though is that Dixon's been suspended (or flunked out) twice and been arrested once (for open container and driving without a liscence). In 2005 he played as a true freshman and had 29 tackles and five sacks but he'd miss the next two seasons after flunking out of Texas Tech. When he returned in 2008 he won the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year award (despite not really being a 'newcomer') with nine sacks and eleven tackles for loss. Dixon, (6-3, 250) has good burst off the snap and has flashed play making ability but he lacks the bulk and strength most 4-3 teams are looking for at defensive end. If you've been around ROTB for any length of time, you know that statement describes just about every 3-4 OLB prospect coming out of college. Most of the articles mentioning Dixon say that he might be worth a late round pick or at least a free agent look.

Stats over his two seasons at Tech: 56 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 15 sacks

Fit with the Cardinals? The Cardinals normally avoid any player with multiple character questions like the plague so Dixon doesn't seem to be a great fit. The question the Cardinals have to ask though is whether or not his natural talent outweighs his inability to meet even the minimum academic requirements (twice). The Cardinals have an obvious need at the position and Dixon has obvious talent but it'll be up to the Cardinals brass to determine whether he's worth a look.

Demetrice Morley (DB, Tennessee): Morley was a huge recruit coming out of high school and he played in every single game as a freshman and sophmore, but academics, or a lack thereof, kept him from enrolling in 2007. After a season off that was highlighted by an arrest for robbery, he returned in 2008 and was the Volunteers starting free safety (42 tackles, two picks). He's characterized by scouts as instinctive and big enough (6-2, 195) to handle free safety but he also has the athleticism to handle a move to cornerback. Morley cleary has NFL talent but he was essentially kicked off the team by two different coaches and scouts are doubting whether an NFL team will take a gamble on him.

Stats over three seasons: 108 tackles, 5 interceptions

Fit with the Cardinals? Morley has talent but the Cardinals, for once, are stacked in the secondary. They drafted a safety and corner in April and there just isn't room for another rookie.

-------------------------------------------------

There are a couple of other guys in the mix tomorrow but these four are considered the most likely to be drafted. The other four include:

Joe McMahon (G/C): McMahon is a 6-4, 295 pound guard/center from Central Michigan and two-time Golden Gloves Champion, but was forced into the supplemental draft due to academic reasons.

Corey Surrency (WR): Surrency is a big wide receiver (6-5, 220) from Florida State who's been suspended multiple times and actually dropped out of high school in ninth grade. He's also an old prospect considering he'll turn 25 this year.

Blake Boyd (OLB): Boyd played OLB in the 4-3 defense of the Hilltoppers and racked up 184 tackles and 16.5 tackles for a loss in his three seasons before being declared academically ineligible for the 2009 season.

Torris Magee (WR): Magee has good size but he put up marginal stats at a lower level of college football and has an arrest for burglary in his past.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

That's a quick look at the guys who will be on the board tomorrow. Obviously we don't have a scouts view of these guys but would you take any of these guys with a late round pick or are the red flags to obvious?

Sunday Buff Bites - Tyler Hansen Expects To Be 100% For Fall

irish1611 — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:15:31 -0000

CU QB Hansen plans to be ready by camp : Boulder Daily Camera
Kyle Ringo talked to Buffs QB Tyler Hansen about his status for the upcoming fall camp after thumb surgery. Good news is he expects to be ready and he has been able to participate in the offseason passing drills:

"My thumb is doing real good," Hansen said Friday following an afternoon throwing session with tight end Ryan Deehan. "I'd say it's about 80percent. I'm still rehabbing it and icing and stuff, but it's doing good." "It still hurts me every once in awhile, but I can still grip a ball and do everything I used to do," he said. "So it's no big deal. I should be 100 percent. I have no worries at all about fall camp."

Will USC Offer Josh Smith a Scholarship? - Inside USC with Scott Wolf

Q: TrojanChamp said: Scott, Is USC interested in Colorado transfer Josh Smith who is reportedly allowed to only transfer to USC or UCLA due to his desire of a music major which USC only has? Thank you.

A: He is interested in USC's music major. USC's shown some interest but right now there's been no overwhelming interest to say that Smith will definitely be playing for the Trojans. He is released to go to USC and UCLA, but it's not clear yet that USC wants him as much as he wanted a release to play for the Trojans. But as often happens with transfer situations, things can change.

Big 12 WR Profiles - AthlonSports.com
AthlonSports ranks the Big 12 receivers. As expected, not much love for the Buffs in this list. Scotty McKnight is the first wideout to appear at #23. Markques Simas (#47), Andre Simmons (#49) and Jason Espinoza (#50) also graced the list.

The Quad Countdown: No. 53 Missouri - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
Well, the New York Times thinks the Colorado Buffaloes will be better than the Missouri Tigers this year. Mizzou checked in at #53 in their countdown, which is always a good read for a look at last season as well as what to expect in 2009. Here is a quick piece of their report:

Season breakdown & prediction: Even the most optimistic Missouri fan would be hard-pressed to make a case that this year team is good enough to post the program’s third consecutive double-digit win season. But how good can Missouri be? If we learned one thing from the post-Brad Smith era, when many of the same concerns were raised as prior to this season, is that you cannot discount the Tigers merely because of its personnel losses. For example, if Gabbert lives up to his five-star billing and Jones is the receiving threat he seems poised to become, the Missouri offense will be only marginally worse than a season ago. On the defensive side of the ball, much will depend on the play of the secondary. If that group can hold its own against the explosive passing attacks in the Big 12, Missouri could be the North champs. Doable? Yes. Do I think those stars will align for Missouri in 2009? No, I don’t. Too many question marks, too many holes to fill. There is no doubt that when considering the youth of this team, especially on offense, Missouri could be back atop the North division in 2010. For this year, I predict the Tigers to hover around the .500 mark: 6-6, 3-5 in the Big 12. However, no other team in the North has as much upside.

South wins high-scoring battle - Sports - OCVarsity.com
2009 QB commit Clark Evans took part in the 50th Brea Lions Orange County North-South Prep All-Star Football Game at Orange Coast College this Friday. His North team got beat 38 - 21 after falling behind 31 - 0 before halftime. We are excited to see Clark get to campus now!

Tulsa World: Close look shows how OSU will be 11-0
Dave Sittler of the Tulsa World thinks the Oklahoma St. Cowboys are going to be 11 - 0 heading into the game against Oklahoma. Oklahoma State most difficult games look to be both Texas and Georgia at home. He thinks the Buffs have little chance against the Zac Robinson led team:

Nov. 19, Colorado: Zac Robinson zapped his home state school last November in Boulder, and OSU's senior quarterback will bash the Buffs again.

Texas Tech DE McKinner Dixon, K-State WR Deon Murphy to enter supplemental draft - ESPN
"Several sources have confirmed that Texas Tech defensive end McKinner Dixon and Kansas State wide receiver Deon Murphy will be among the pool of eligible players when the draft is conducted on Thursday."

College Football Countdown: Nos. 106-110 - D1SCOURSE - Washington Times
The Washington Times jumps into the fun of preseason rankings. The Buffs' third opponent is examined:

No. 109: TOLEDO Things grew dire in northwestern Ohio last fall --- enough so that a man nicknamed Toledo Tom stepped aside after a third straight losing season. So Tom Amstutz is gone, replaced by former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman, who has the benefit of plenty of familiarity with Ohio thanks to stints at Ohio State and Bowling Green but is also responsible for coordinating extremely so-so units with the Pokes. He does take over a team on an interesting streak. The Rockets have defeated a BCS conference team in three straight seasons: 2006: @Toledo 37, Kansas 31 (2OT) 2007: @Toledo 36, Iowa State 35 2008: Toledo 13, @Michigan 10 Perhaps Purdue (Sept. 5), Colorado (Sept. 11) and Ohio State (Sept. 19) should be a bit wary.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Offenses

Bill C. — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:00:18 -0000

Due to a number of factors--desire to use BTBS numbers right now for something other than Bowling Green analysis, annoyance at the quickly-forming "Nebraska is obviously almost back" consensus (how many times have we heard that since 2001?), etc.--I thought I'd take some time and lay out some North Division analysis based on the unit rankings* that I've been using for the BTBS previews the last two weeks.

As I've mentioned before, the unit rankings are a work in progress, but they're at least a place to start. Clearly I think Missouri's WR/TE corps was better than #25 in the country last year (meanwhile, their O-line was good, but probably not #5 in the country), but for the most part they seem like a good jumping-off point. Again, I can go into detail on this if I need to, but I'm working with the assumption that nobody cares that much about the methods. If I'm wrong, let me know.

Before we jump in, however, I'd like to post a graph. It represents each North team's point differential in their ten North division games in 2007-08. This should also be part of any jumping-off point for analysis of the North.

Mizzou went 9-1 versus the North in 2007-08, with only a last-second loss in a rivalry game marring a perfect record. Their per-game point differential was +25.8. Yes, they technically tied for North titles with Kansas in 2007 and Nebraska in 2008, but make no mistake: they destroyed the North. Kansas was 8-2, but with only a differential of +12.0. Nebraska: +1.4. Colorado: -14.4. Yes, Mizzou has lost a ton of talent, but...25 points' worth per game? 40?

Alright, with that out of the way, let's get started. Today, we look at offense. Tomorrow, defense. For each unit, I'll look at the 2008 unit rankings, try to perceive who has risen or fallen since last year, and come up with rough rankings for this year. And I'm going to try my best to keep my own personal biases out of the equation (for proof, simply look at the QB rankings).

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#11 in the country)
Nebraska (#13)
Kansas (#27)
Kansas State (#65)
Iowa State (#92)
Colorado (#113)

Missouri, ~~Kansas~~ Nebraska and Kansas State lose their starters, leaving Todd Reesing a clear #1. Everybody can agree on that. But what about after that? Austen Arnaud and Cody Hawkins return, but they were ranked very low. Conservatively, let's rank Arnaud and Hawkins #2-3, simply because they are known quantities (in Hawkins' case, too known, I think). Who's #4 among MU's Blaine Gabbert, NU's Zac Lee, and KSU's Carson Coffman (or Grant Gregory)? Taking away the junk time work that Gabbert and Coffman/Gregory have gotten, the only other thing we have to go by is recruiting profile. Gabbert was a 5-star recruit, Lee a 4-star JUCO, Coffman a 2-star, and Gregory a 2-star. I like Coffman, but for this exercise I'm trying to take my own opinions out of the equation for now, simply because I'm biased. So we're going to rely totally on my own numbers and external factors like recruiting rankings. So despite the fact that my list would look different than this, here's what we come up with:

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State

If another picture of Todd Reesing exists, I haven't seen it.

Running Backs

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#16)
Nebraska (#20)
Kansas (#69)
Iowa State (#90)
Colorado (#107)
Kansas State (#119)

The BTBS numbers do NOT like Lamark Brown and Logan Dold, apparently. Anyway, basically everybody returns most key contributors--Derrick Washington, Roy Helu, Jr., Jake Sharp, Alexander Robinson, Darrell Scott/Rodney Stewart, Lamark Brown/Keithen Valentine/Logan Dold (though Dold may have been moved to defense). Therefore, we won't change the rankings much. I could see moving CU ahead of ISU simply because Stewart and Scott were both hurt a bunch, but again...we're trying to deal as much as possible with known quantities.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Kansas State

From the Missourian. D-Wash: good.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Rankings

Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#25)
Nebraska (#27)
Kansas State (#48)
Iowa State (#96)
Colorado (#110)

Well, first things first: CU had one reliable weapon--Josh Smith--and he's gone. So it's safe to say they're staying #6. And with the return of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, KU stays #1. Missouri loses Maclin and Coffman, so they'll fall. Nebraska loses Swift and Peterson, so they'll fall. Iowa State returns everybody, but they don't make up enough ground. Really, I think KSU slides into the #2 spot here with Brandon Banks and Deon Murphy returning. So that leaves Mizzou vs Nebraska for #3.

Career stats for projected top three receivers and top tight end:

Missouri: Danario Alexander (78 catches, 997 yards, 8 TDs), Jared Perry (91 catches, 1148 yards, 7 TDs), Jerrell Jackson (9 catches, 98 yards), Andrew Jones (20 catches, 146 yards). Total = 198 catches, 2389 yards, 15 touchdowns, 12.1 yards per catch, one TD every 13.2 catches).
Nebraska: Menelik Holt (34 catches, 452 yards, 1 TD), Niles Paul (24 catches, 220 yards), Chris Brooks (3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD), Mike McNeill (33 catches, 467 yards, 6 TDs). Total = 94 catches, 1170 yards, 8 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per catch, one TD every 11.8 catches).

The per-catch stats are extremely similar, with a slight advantage to NU, but Mizzou has by far the experience advantage. And if I'm giving Cody Hawkins an experience advantage...well...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa State
Colorado

What If...

Offensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#5)
Kansas State (#20)
Kansas (#25)
Iowa State (#60)
Nebraska (#61)
Colorado (#102)

Offensive line rankings are based on line yards and sack rates (adjusted, as always, for strength of schedule), in case you were wondering. Anyway, Mizzou was a clear #1 in the North last year, and with the return of Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, and Elvis Fisher, and the seeming emergence of Dan Hoch this spring, they will stay #1. K-State's line, led by Nick Stringer and potential stars like Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze, actually looks pretty solid as well. Iowa State returns four OL starters and a good blocking TE in Derrick Catlett--they have the most combined returning starts in the North. Nebraska does have to replace probably their best overall OL (to me, at least) in Lydon Murtha, but their experience level is solid. Colorado's line is full of good recruits, but they were so young, thin, and injury-prone last year that there's no telling what their ceiling is. But they were so far in last place here that they'll stay there.

So pretty much everybody stays in the same order...but what to do with Kansas? They were quite far ahead of ISU and NU, but they return a mere 26 career starts, easily the lowest in the conference as a whole. This could be the offense's Achilles Heel, and with improvement possible from ISU, I'll squeeze KU between the 'Clones and the Huskers.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado

Photo by Andrew Worrall, via The Columns

OFFENSE SUMMARY

Alright, so to get a general, reasonably unscientific way of judging the talent level here, let's simply add everybody's rankings together and see what happens. Lowest number = best, obviously.

Tentative 2009 Offensive Ranking

1T. Missouri (9)
1T. Kansas (9)
3. Iowa State (14)
4T. Nebraska (16)
4T. Kansas State (16)
6. Colorado (20)

I honestly didn't know how the numbers would play out when I started that exercise, but it does make some sense. For all the loss analysts mention when talking about Missouri, it only affects the passing game side of the equation. Missouri still has the division's best running back and best offensive line, and with the right approach and play-calling, those strengths can take a large load off of Blaine Gabbert's shoulders. Plus, Gabbert does have two extremely experienced, relatively proven quantities in Perry and Alexander at WR (assuming they're healthy). I'd still give a slight nod to Kansas overall*, but there is at least some cause for optimism for Mizzou this year.

* This is 90% honesty and a 10% attempt at a jinx of Kansas. Jinx...JINX...NOONAN!

Tomorrow we look at defenses. Does Nebraska have enough of a defensive advantage to make up for a lacking offense?

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

The Fog of '09 - North Offenses

Bill C. — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Two years ago, it was pretty easy to see what was in store for the Big 12 in football. Colt McCoy was having a monster RSFr season. Chase Daniel and Graham Harrell were having monster sophomore seasons. Stephen McGee and Bobby Reid were young and looked like gamers. Josh Freeman was a true freshman starter, and while he looked it from time to time, his upside was huge. Even Bret Meyer and Blake "Blizzle Szyzzle" Szymanski had their moments.

Beyond that, the offensive lines (especially Oklahoma's) were young, as were the RBs and WRs. Oh yeah, and just about every proven defensive end had run out of eligibility. While there was still defensive talent throughout the conference, it was clear that the next couple of years were going to see some unprecedented offensive continuity and success in the Big 12.

Sure enough, that's what happened. And it was an even bigger surge than anybody expected. Todd Reesing and Zac Robinson outshone their promising counterparts (Dylan Meier and Reid) and thrived. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree were All-Americans as redshirt freshmen. Add to that the fact that half the league's starters are of the "3-year" variety, and this run of offense has just been ridiculous. Josh Freeman is still talked about as a potential first rounder in the 2009 (or 2010) draft, and he's at best the #8 QB in the conference.

But it all changes in 2009. Daniel and Harrell? Gone. Crabtree and Maclin? Almost certainly gone. McCoy, Bradford, Freeman? Possibly gone. Chase Coffman, Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky, Nate Swift, Chris Ogbonnaya, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, Shannon Woods and Eric Morris? Gone. Even the J-Train, Jorvorskie Lane, has finally exhausted his eligibility. So many guys who have become household names in the midwest are leaving.

And that says nothing about William Moore, Brian Orakpo, all of KU's linebackers, Nic Harris, and the potential defensive exodus. Or even Dave Christensen, Matt Eberflus, Brent Venables, Kevin Wilson, and the potential assistant coaching exodus.

The watchword for '08 was "offensive explosion." For '09? "New" Through the clarity of 2007 and 2008 lies the fog of 2009. We don't yet know all who will return and who will not, but one thing's for certain: everything changes in 2009.

It's still pretty hard to grasp this yet, as we don't know who will be leaving for the draft, but let's take a super-duper early look at who might be good (or not so good) in 2009. We'll start with the North Division. To do this, I'm not going to jump into BTBS numbers. There will certainly be a time and place for that. Today, we'll simply go unit-by-unit and make some early rankings. And I'm not even going to think about redshirts or incoming recruits. Making predictions about how newcomers are going to fit in and/or thrive can drive you crazy. Plus, you'll probably be wrong. Remember how Darrell Scott and Jocques Crawford were supposed to be total studs the moment they walked in the door at CU and KU?

In other words, the projections after the jump are strictly from this year's depth chart.

Quarterbacks

Kansas (Todd Reesing)
Kansas State (Josh Freeman--for now)
Iowa State (Austen Arnaud)
Missouri (Blaine Gabbert)
Nebraska (Patrick Witt/Zac Lee)
Colorado (Cody Hawkins/Tyler Hansen)

I probably shouldn't stick CU's duo below two relative newcomers at MU and NU, but I just can't help it. And if Josh Freeman is gone and Carson Coffman is next year's starter at KSU, pencil KSU into the #4 or #5 spot. And while either Gabbert or Witt/Lee (Pac Litt?) can or will overtake Arnaud by the end of the season, I couldn't rank two returning starters below QBs who've never taken a meaningful snap.

Running Backs

Missouri (Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore)
Nebraska (Roy Helu Jr., Quentin Castille)
Kansas (Jake Sharp, Jocques Crawford)
Colorado (Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott)
Iowa State (Alexander Robinson)
Kansas State (Lamark Brown, Logan Dold)

Of all the departures for '09, the running back position actually looks not only solid, but strong. Washington, Helu and Sharp are all relatively proven at this point, and at any moment Stewart and Scott could emerge in a big way. Even Alexander Robinson and Lamark Brown have had their moments this year. This is something to watch for '09--while offenses may not be as high-flying, they still might be pretty darn effective thanks to the ground games.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Kansas (Dezmon Briscoe, Kerry Meier, Johnathan Wilson)
Missouri (Jared Perry, Danario Alexander, Andrew Jones)
Kansas State (Brandon Banks, Deon Murphy, Aubrey Quarles)
Nebraska (Niles Paul, Menelik Holt, Mike McNeill)
Colorado (Josh Smith, Scotty McKnight, Riar Geer)
Iowa State (Houston Jones, Sedrick Johnson, Derrick Catlett)

Kansas is clearly #1 here, but after that, #2-#5 is something of a crapshoot. I feel like a homer for putting Mizzou at #2, but while they won't have the speed of KSU's unit, they'll still have the speed-size mix that few other teams do. And naturally, I'm assuming Jeremy Maclin is gone. Mizzou is clearly #1 if Maclin returns, but I very much do not see that happening. Paul and Holt could make NU's unit pretty effective, but they haven't gone all the way in proving that just yet.

Offensive Lines

Missouri (OG Kurtis Gregory, C Tim Barnes, OT Elvis Fisher)
Nebraska (C Jacob Hickman, OG Keith Williams, OT Jaivorio Burkes)
Colorado (OT Nate Solder, OT Ryan Miller, OG Devin Head)
Kansas State (OG Brock Unruh, OT Edward Prince, OT Nick Stringer)
Kansas (OT Jeremiah Hatch, OT Jeff Spikes)
Iowa State (OG Reggie Stephens, OT Ben Lamaak, C Alex Alvarez)

Missouri will have by far the highest-upside offensive line in the North next year. That can only help when a) protecting a young QB and b) clearing the way for the North's #1 RB. If Mizzou is to win the North despite having to replace Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin, it's Washington and the nice O-line who will get it done.

After Mizzou, NU's probably got the most upside in this unit. Colorado's fought through youth and injuries this year and could emerge next year with a solid O-line because of the struggles. After that...no idea. KSU returns quite a bit from an iffy-at-best O-line, and KU loses both starting guards and center. Not good. And while I like Reggie Stephens at ISU, he's about all ISU has.

So, keeping this as unscientific as possible, if we assign 6 points for every #1 ranking, 5 for every #2, et cetera, how do the North offenses add up?

North Offenses, 2009

Missouri (20 points)
Kansas (18 points)
Nebraska (15 points)
Kansas State (13 points)
Colorado (10 points)
Iowa State (8 points)

If Josh Freeman goes pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (18)
Nebraska (16)
Kansas State (10)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (9)

If Jeremy Maclin DOESN'T go pro

Missouri (21)
Kansas (17)
Nebraska (15)
Kansas State (13)
Colorado (10)
Iowa State (8)

I'm obviously not going to take this rather arbitrary ranking system too seriously and say "See? This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that Missouri will have the best offense in the North next year!" or anything like that. This does show, though, that each team will have defined strengths and weaknesses (Mizzou = good running, iffy passing; Kansas = good passing, iffy blocking, KSU = good passing, no running, CU = possibly good running, no passing), which means unit-to-unit matchups and home-road scheduling will matter more next year than it has in the last couple of years.

And speaking of those matchups, tomorrow we'll look at North defenses.