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CFB Big 12 Roundup: Week One

rockchalk — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 18:35:37 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Where did you put us in the Big 12 Power Rankings?(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Note: This story's comment section turned into an impromptu Open Game Thread for the absolutely aces (fantastic/awesome/incredible/super/sensational/awe-inspiring/etc,) game between Miami and Florida State. I highly recommend reading through the comments, if you have time, but just as a warning -- only the first five are actually about the (brilliantly written, I might add) story. The rest are all Canes-Noles. It starts roughly 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. And yes, we put up that many numbers. It is a future first ballot Hall of Famer in the sometime-to-be-created Rock Chalk Talk Hall of Fame, and is that good. Read it.

Everyone's favorite Big 12 weekly wrapup from college basketball is back, this time for college football!

(Applause)

Seriously, though, this should be a weekly feature, highlighting all of the Big 12 teams, and how they fared in their games. It will also take a brief look towards next week, along with providing some form of Power Rankings for the week. In a way, it's my own version of the Big 12 Roundtable.

So, let's get this started. We'll work through the teams based off of their preseason ranking according to me:

This Week's Games

Iowa State 34 North Dakota State 17 -- The 17-point margin of victory looks nice, as well it should, but I don't know exactly how it happened. Both teams had 2 turnovers, with the Clones only outgaining the Fighting Ben Woodsides by 54 yards. A scary note for the Block-I's: NDSU runningback Pat Paschall piled up 146 yards rushing on only 21 carries, which is 7 yards per. That isn't good. So, while Iowa State's offense certainly looked competent, the defense needs to take some serious steps forward or, uh, ouch.

Next Week -- vs. Iowa -- Clone Chronicles

Nebraska 49 Florida Atlantic 3 -- This was exactly the type of performance the Cornhuskers needed to open the season. A dominating victory, leaving no doubt about who the better team was or anything, against a solid, bowl-winning Florida Atlantic team. The key for the Huskers was the running game, as Roy Helu Jr. just got whatever he wanted, picking up 9.5 yards a carry. That is ridiculous.

Next Week -- vs. Arkansas State -- Corn Nation

Texas Tech 38 North Dakota 13 -- Unlike North Dakota State, the Fighting Sioux are a D-II school. Division II. And while the Red Raiders were never in danger of actually losing the game, it certainly wasn't the preposterous blowout that it easily could have been. Taylor Potts had a shiny 405 total yards passing, but he also threw three interceptions, which is obviously worrisome for the Techers. I'm assuming it had everything to do with getting Potts as many attempts as possible, but Mike Leach essentially abandoned the run altogether, calling only 14 runs all game long. 14. 53 passes were called, combining Potts' 48 attempts with 5 runs/sacks for negative yardage. That is a big disparity.

Next Week -- vs. Rice -- Double-T Nation

Kansas State 21 UMass 17 -- Uhhhhhh. I mean, I know Bill Snyder is famous for vanilla-izing his playbook against terrible opponents, and Carson Coffman is a true QB in nobody's eyes, but still -- they won by four against the Minutemen. A win is a win, and it counts the same, and may be more valuable in the long run than a total blowout would have been. But still, this can't be comforting to the Powercat faithful. What should ease the pain is K-State's 195 yard advantage, with only Carson Coffman mistakes (1 INT, 1 fumble) keeping the Minutemen alive. Their D was fabulous against the pass, holding UMass to only 3.2 yards per attempt, but were poor against the run, giving up more than 5 yards a run to UMass' starting runningback.

Next Week -- @ Louisiana Lafayette -- Bring On the Cats

Texas A&M 41 New Mexico 6 -- Really, of all of the Big 12 teams, this was almost assuredly the performance of the week. The Lobos have a brand new coaching staff, yes, and last year the Aggies made the trip to Mexico Nuevo as opposed to this year's matchup at Kyle Field, but still -- the Ampersands won 28-22 last year, and 41-6 this year. That is a big difference. Might Mike Sherman, to the surprise of the entire world, know what he's doing afterall? The score wasn't just garbage-time points, either. Texas A&M surged ahead to a 20-0 lead and was winning 34-6 by the end of the 3rd quarter. They outgained the Lobos by nearly 400 yards, and Jerrod Johnson looked absolutely fantastic. 349 yards passing plus another 50 running, paired with freshman Christine Michael's near 100-yard day was a large positive for the Ags. Now, maybe New Mexico is just way worse than everyone expected, so it's too early to really draw much. But, the Aggies looked like a bowl team on Saturday night.

Next Week -- BYE -- I Am the 12th Man

Texas 59 Louisiana Monroe 20 -- Was anyone surprised, at all, about this final score? Yeah, I didn't really think so. This is basically the performance everyone was expecting from the 'Horns -- absolute domination on the offensive side of the ball, with periodic struggles on defense. It should be noted, however, that the Warhawks scored 10 of their points in the 4th quarter, when the game was more than in hand the subs, I'm sure, were playing. So, periodic struggles is unfair. However, Colt McCoy did throw a pick, so I think it's definitely time for Bevo to panic.

Next Week -- @ Wyoming -- Burnt Orange Nation

Missouri 37 Illinois 9 -- What did I tell you? Missouri is going to be good this year, people -- really good. I'm not even positive they won't be better than last season. Of course, before I get too high up on a pedestal of genius, just remind me that I was just regurgitating the information that RMN's numbers told me to believe. Really, it is math that called Missouri, so score one for math. The mathless wonders in Champaign (I mean, who really thinks that Regis Benn has ever attended a calculus class?) were outclassed from the opening whistle, as Blaine Gabbert looked marvelous. Now, not marvelous enough to supercede Tom Brady in football history (I'm looking at you, Jason Whitlock), but still -- pretty damn good. I just hope our eerily similar transition next year is as seamless as the Tigers' will be*.

Next Week -- vs. Bowling Green State -- Rock M Nation

* Seriously, it's downright creepy the similarities between the 08-09 turnover for the Tigers and the 09-10 turnover for the Jayhawks. Another reason to watch the Tigers closely this season. I mean, Missouri lost Chase Daniel (Todd Reesing), Jeremy Maclin (Dezmon Briscoe), Chase Coffman (Kerry Meier) and William Moore (Darrell Stuckey). I mean, wow. We don't really have a Ziggy Hood, and there are a couple other minor places where the comparison falls off, but it isn't bad. We do lose our runningback, while they kept theirs. So, yeah, maybe not as good as I thought. Still.

Baylor 24 Wake Forest 21 -- Huh? Robert Griffin III, who is the Bears' lone good player, was held to a combined 177 yards, and the Bears won? On the road? Against a ACC bowl team? Damn. Maybe it isn't just the Robert Griffin show, after all. The Bears scored on a WR pass to give them the would-be game-winner, with runningback Jay Finley also taking on the brunt of the workload. And of course, the defense is quite good, led by Joe Pawalek at LB, and they did a good job against Riley Skinner and Company. I love Baylor.

Next Week -- BYE -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Colorado 17 Colorado State 23 -- Whoops. And let me just tell you, it wasn't really a 6-point loss. It was 23-3 at one point, and the Rams looked like they were just getting started. Obviously, that isn't true, and the Buffs stepped it up towards the end, but it was clear from play one who the better team was out there on the field. And a lot of the time, it wasn't really close. Cody Hawkins predictably looked quite awful back there at QB, and for reasons unknown to rational humans, Darrell Scott was handed off to once. One carry. That's it. Beginning to regret the decision to go to Boulder, there, Darrell? Of course, it wasn't just that Hawkins decided to focus on Rodney Stewart or Brian Lockridge, instead. Nah. Lockridge only had one carry himself (a 9-yard TD run) while Stewart only picked up 6 carries. That is a combined 8 for your three best runningbacks, Dan Hawkins. And your son, who is awful, threw the ball 40 times. Uh, wut?

Next Week -- @ Toledo -- The Ralphie Report

Oklahoma State 24 Georgia 10 -- The performance of the day for the Big 12, at least when it comes to national perception. With all of the hype that the Pokes have received this offseason, it was crucial they at least showed up against an SEC team considered to be the 4th best this season, and who lost their top QB, RB and WR over the offseason. After not showing up for much of the first half, they managed to hang around, then somehow take a 10-7 lead into halftime. Even now, I'm not sure how they did that. But then in the second half, they showed who really was the best team on the field. It is the lynchpin to the upcoming campaign, Big 12 > SEC. Also, Bill Young knows how to coach a little sumpin'-sumpin' on defense, huh? Dayum. Now, I think part of it may have been just a bad Georgia offense, but still -- last year's Oklahoma State defense gives up a lot more than 10 points.

Next Week -- vs. Houston -- NO BLOG EXISTS

Oklahoma 13 BYU 14 -- Sam Bradford or no Sam Bradford, this one wasn't good for Boomer Sooner. Even before Sam Bradford went out with a sprained shoulder, Oklahoma just looked bad. At times, really bad. Their offensive line was in shambles, with the Mormons consistently getting pressure on Sam. And, as everyone predicted last season, Sam isn't quite sure what to do with pressure. He never had less than 18 seconds last year to throw, so when he was only given 2 and 3 on Saturday, it wasn't pretty. Landry Jones, owner of the world's ugliest mustache (besides Trey Hillman, of course), looked even worse, predictably. It wasn't just worse, though -- Landry (can we call him Lance?) looked absolutely awful. No Jermaine Greshman couldn't have been positive, either. Of course, it isn't like Oklahoma's D was awesome, either -- Max Hall basically ripped them to shreds, and it could have been worse except for a pair of Max Hall mental mistakes. Not a good sign for Boomer Sooner.

Next Week -- vs. Idaho State -- Crimson and Cream Machine

What 2 Watch 4 (I Can Be Cool Too, ESPN)

Basically, this is what I want to see from every Big 12 team next week. It maybe as simple as just asking for a victory, or it may be as specific as getting Player X the ball more.

Iowa State -- Stop the running game. Iowa lost Shonn Greene, yes, but they still have a dangerous ground attack. If you can't improve on last week's putrid performance, no way you pull off the upset.

Nebraska -- Rinse and repeat. Arkansas State is about the same quality of team as the Owls, so I want to see an equally dominant performance.

Texas Tech -- Taylor Potts needs to improve. Obviously, the yardage totals look nice, but he needs to take better care of the ball.

Kansas State -- Don't lose. ULa-La is a good team, certainly a lot better than UMass, and plus it is on the road. More specifically, shore up the running defense, but as long as you come out of there with a W, be happy.

Texas -- Rinse and repeat. Same situation as Nebraska. Now, it doesn't have to be quite as dominant, as Wyoming is probably a step up and it is in Laramie, but you should still win by 24 points easily.

Missouri -- Don't get overconfident. Yes, you looked incredible on Saturday. But don't underestimate just how bad Illinois probably is. They are awful. They'll be lucky to make a bowl this year. Book it. And Bowling Green is an improved team who crushed Troy last Thursday night, the predicted winner of the Sun Belt. Not too much partying, Blaine. A loss to the Falcons erases all of the positive goodwill of a win over the Juices Benz.

Colorado -- Please, just win. Please. If you lose to Toledo, you aren't making a bowl. Just please, win. Please.

Oklahoma State -- Basically the same as Missouri, just take out the part about how bad the opponent was. Georgia actually is a pretty good team. Maybe really good, even. Still, Houston is pretty good, too, and Casey Keenum is a stud, so let's not go out partying or nothing. I had to speak in a double-negative, there, because that's how they speak. And I really want them to listen to me.

Oklahoma -- Coach the hell out of Landry (Lance?) this week. Idaho State shouldn't be an issue, but depending on how long Sammy is out, you might end up playing an opponent where Landry/Lance will have to play well. He better be up for the challenge. Oh, also -- shave his freaking mustache. It's a disgrace to the world.

Power Rankings

We are going explanation-less, as they are mostly self-explanatory. If you have a complaint, raise it in the comments section, and I'll get back to you. Unless you're KC.

Texas (1-0)
Oklahoma State (1-0)
Missouri (1-0)
Nebraska (1-0)
Baylor (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
Oklahoma (0-1)
Texas A&M (1-0)
Iowa State (1-0)
Texas Tech (1-0)
Kansas State (1-0)
Colorado (0-1)

I know I changed things up a bunch. I'm expecting a bunch of criticism. It's okay. And just to nip it in the bud, Kansas is as low as it is because the three above them (assuming no one has an issue with Texas or OSU ahead of them) all had more impressive wins. All three played MUCH better teams than a 1-AA team with 3 wins combined in the last 3 years. I think we are better than all three teams, but we'll see.

That's all, for now. I'll be back next week.

Mizzou Links, 9-1-09...IT'S SEPTEMBER!!!

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:45:28 -0000

Illinois Links!

Dave Matter: Pinkel talks injuries, Illini, Arch Rivalry series
Dave Matter: Tigers meet the Press
Later this week I'll have more on Missouri's cornerbacks and their monumental task this Saturday, but I heard from more than one person on Monday who believed corner Carl Gettis was just too heavy last season. I'm not sure if it was because coaches were grooming Gettis to replace William Moore in the hybrid linebacker/safety/nickelback role or he was just out of shape, but Gettis tipped the scales in the 210-pound range last season. Now down in the 195 neighborhood, Gettis is playing more like the corner who earned freshman All-American honors in 2007, his teammates and coaches told me on Monday.
Chicago Tribune: Illinois has score to settle with Missouri
The Rivalry, Esq.: 2009 Closing Argument - Illinois Fighting Illini (shocker: all three writers think UI beats MU)
Alton Telegraph: All Juiced Up
Beacon News: High-stakes opener for Illinois

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:30:09 -0000

Moving right along in the Mizzou 2009 series...

Secondary

I think that was Ricky Steamboat's finishing move.

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.)
CB Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.)
S Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)
S Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.)
CB Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)
S Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)
CB Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
CB Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)
CB Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Jr.)
S Del Howard (5'11, 200, Sr.)

1. How bad was the Mizzou secondary in 2008? I won't spend a lot of time on this one, simply because I've gone over it before. Factoring in junk-time yards and the quality of the offenses Missouri was facing, they simply weren't nearly as bad as people want to think. Let's take a quick look back at the schedule, using good old S&P as a guide:

Opponent	Season Passing S&P	S&P vs Missouri*	Diff
vs Illinois	0.906	0.758	-0.148
Nevada	0.812	0.734	-0.078
Buffalo	0.855	0.827	-0.028
@ Nebraska	1.013	0.920	-0.097
Oklahoma State	1.083	0.950	-0.133
@ Texas	1.096	1.212	+0.116
Colorado	0.666	0.160	-0.506
@ Baylor	0.805	0.946	+0.141
Kansas State	0.853	0.195	-0.658
@ Iowa State	0.808	0.897	+0.089
vs Kansas	0.939	0.967	+0.028
vs Oklahoma	1.195	1.212	+0.017
vs Northwestern	0.812	0.792	-0.020

* Now's a good time to remind you that these are close-game ratings, meaning the only plays accounted for here took place when the score was within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and under 17 in Q3/Q4. Pretty much all of Illinois' passing success, for instance, took place when Mizzou was up a large amount, and when Illinois cut the lead back inside two possessions, the defense locked down again.

So Missouri held eight of 13 FBS opponents (no SEMO here) below their season rates, and in the case of a couple opponents--Colorado and K-State--completely shut them down. They gave up two huge passes to Northwestern and otherwise limited them to sometimes inefficient slant routes.

Now, one reason people are talking about how atrocious the Mizzou pass defense was in 2008 goes beyond the "117th in passing yardage" thing (which I've pretty thoroughly debunked by this time, I think). It's that they seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Of the five opponents who achieved an S&P above their season average, four came in the last six games, and they all came in the last eight. Granted, only two teams (Texas, Baylor) far exceeded their season averages--everybody else exceeded in very minor terms, but still, the Mizzou pass defense went from far above average early on (the perception was still hurt by those bombs to Will Judson against Illinois) to average or slightly below-average later in the season. Clearly that will need to change.

So here's my question: I don't think any of us are too worried about the secondary, at least not worried about them being any worse than last year. But if they actually weren't bad last year, can we still expect a comparative level of play? Can Kevin Rutland v2009 cover better than Castine Bridges (and Tru Vaughns, and Kevin Rutland) v2008? Can Carl Gettis do better in the nickel back role than William Moore did?

Mizzou's passing yardage numbers should improve this year for a number of reasons: 1) they probably won't be far ahead of teams as much, 2) they might be running the ball more (and therefore potentially eating more clock), 3) it's hard to get much worse than last year's yardage numbers, 4) et cetera. But will their S&P and S&P+ improve? Can they be counted on to at least hold teams to their season average in this regard? Are they going to be reliant on the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter to get good pressure on the QB and make their lives easier? We'll see.

2. Is somebody going to overtake Hardy Ricks in the starting lineup? Sub-question: how valuable is experience? I honestly have nothing against Hardy Ricks. I think he's a good hitter, he's a damn solid backup, and he seems like a good kid. I advocated for him to move to safety in 2007, thought that would suit his style of play better, and I still think that. But I just don't trust that he's good enough to be the starter in a decent secondary. I don't think his cover skills are up to snuff, even for a safety, and I'll feel much better about the defense if Jarrell Harrison or Jasper Simmons is able to overtake him as a starter by September 5.

And no, I do not know anything about the quality of play Harrison or Simmons are capable of delivering, but I think I know Ricks pretty well by now--he's a known quantity--and I'm really hoping that either or both of them are better.

3. Should Carl Gettis move to safety? This is not really a realistic question...just a thought. We've read for the last couple of weeks that this is the deepest set of cornerbacks Gary Pinkel has had at Missouri, how guys like Trey Hobson, Kip Edwards, Robert Steeples and Munir Prince are virtually interchangeable and how any of them would have started for Pinkel's first few teams. Meanwhile, at safety, Ricks is fighting with two JUCO transfers (Harrison, Simmons) for a spot in the starting lineup. And in the nickel alignment, Gettis plays the roaming nickel back. If he's already putting together some safety-esque skills, and Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince are better at CB than Ricks is at safety, then shouldn't this be a move we're considering?

Now...that's as far as I'm going with the thought. It's a waste of time to make suggestions or speculate about position changes when a) we're not at every practice (for all we know, Ricks could have turned into an all-conference safety over the offseason...though I think I'll go ahead and doubt that), and b) we're not the coaches, but it's certainly an idea that's been floating around in my head the last couple of weeks. I'd take my chances with a (short) safety combo of Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, with Kevin Rutland and the winner of the Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince derby starting at CB.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

Mizzou Links, 8-19-09

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:43:53 -0000

Practice Reports!!!

Dave Matter: Injuries strike Tuesday practice
Starting right tackle Dan Hoch sprained his left knee and was sent to the locker room and later returned to the sideline wearing a full red jersey and a brace on his left leg. He was scheduled to undergo an MRI later on Tuesday. "We don’t think it’s anything more than" a sprain, Gary Pinkel said. "But we should know something this afternoon. Those things happen. And you have to adjust."
Dave Matter: Bruce Walker: We'll Get Through This
PowerMizzou: Practice Report: Injury Bug Bites
Wes Kemp impresses me a little more each day. He consistently goes up and gets the ball at its highest point, which is something every receiver has stressed repeatedly. Just think how different this offense would look if Kemp had stuck at Wisconsin and Hoch and Blaine Gabbert were Cornhuskers.
Mutigers.com: Tigers continue push through Training Camp
Next, the #1 units squared off. Gabbert hit TB Derrick Washington for a gain of 10 yards on a swing pass and on the next snap he feathered a nice sideline pass to TE Andrew Jones for a gain of 20 yards. With the score for the period tied at 5-5 for the last play, Gabbert tried to connect with WR Jared Perry on a go route up the right sideline on a 3rd-and-9 situation. The pass was right on the money, but CB Carl Gettis had blanket coverage and jumped to knock the ball away. Safety Kenji Jackson dove to nearly grab an interception, but the ball fell to the turf...

Gettis also stood out several times during the day for big hits he laid on receivers and ball carriers...
The Missourian: Tuesday practice notes
Post-Dispatch: Meiners gets shot with MU's first team
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Web Cast

Behind The Stripes Web Cast from Columbia Daily Tribune Video on Vimeo.

Mizzou 2009, Part Two: Putting 2008 to bed

Bill C. — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 12:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

He just doesn't look right without the visor.

Browse more photos »

Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

It struck me as I was hammering out the K-State preview this week that...well, I haven't actually talked about Missouri much this offseason, in BTBS-ese or English. In honor of preseason camp's kickoff, why don't we change that, mmkay?

Consider this Part Two of an ongoing Mizzou 2009 series, following rptgwb's Blaine Gabbert post from Tuesday. Moving forward, we'll take a look at the same types of BTBS projections that we've been making for all the other teams on the 2009 schedule, we'll take an in-depth position-by-position analysis (like you didn't know that was coming), we'll revisit the "Gary Pinkel vs History" series from last December, and...well, we'll do a whole bunch of other things as well. August is going to be a fun month.

So without further adieu, it's time to put 2008 to bed once and for all. The games that were lost are still lost, the players that have gone are still gone, and the 2009 season is less than a month (!!!) away. Over the next couple of days, we'll look back to 2008 to try to understand specifically what might have gone right or wrong and get a read for what it might mean for 2009. Let's get started!

2008

Record: 10-4 (5-3 in conference, Big 12 North Champions)
S&P+: 241.1 (10th in the country, 3rd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 591-381 (+210)
Conference Scoring Margin: 325-213 (+112)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #21 Nebraska, #25 Illinois, #36 Nevada, #40 Baylor, #44 Northwestern, #79 Kansas State, #81 Buffalo, #82 Colorado, #104 Iowa State, 1-AA SEMO
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas

So how exactly does Missouri end up 10th in the S&P+ rankings despite four losses and an overall drop-off in play over the last few games of the season? Easy answer: they were just that good in their wins. Despite what amounted to an average performance against OU and below-average performances against Northwestern, Kansas, Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State, Mizzou was flat-out untouchable in the other eight games of the season (in close-game circumstances, mind you...so none of those late-game points and yards against Kansas State, Nebraska, Illinois, etc., counted in the totals). There is no late-season bias in the numbers--the whole season is evaluated equally--so clearly the good times outweighed the bad when it came to Mizzou's "+" performance.

And let's be honest. The 2008 season didn't play out as Mizzou fans wanted or expected it to, but...well, stuff happens. Things don't always bounce your way. A year after becoming basically the only team in the country that didn't lose a game it shouldn't lose in 2007 (LSU lost to Arkansas and Kentucky, Ohio State lost to Illinois, Oklahoma lost to Colorado and Tech, etc.), Mizzou lost two such games in 2008, to Kansas and Oklahoma State. But beyond that, there was another reason Mizzou's title run never took shape: OU and Texas were great again. Whereas Mizzou made a move in 2007 when Texas was struggling a bit and OU was going through a couple of brainfarts (lord knows they wouldn't have lost a game if they played every game like they played the Big 12 title game), their title hopes really ended before anybody had noticed--they ended when OU and Texas became OU and Texas again. To win a national title, they had to at least go 1-1 at Texas and in the Big 12 title game. Texas played just about the most perfect game of the season against Mizzou in Austin, and nobody in the country was beating OU the Saturday of the Big 12 title game.

So really, the disappointment comes down to the two losses to OSU and KU. Mizzou was out of sync offensively in both games, and the defense had just enough breakdowns to lose the game, but in the end they were one bounce or break from winning either or both games. Sometimes it just doesn't happen like you want it to.

So before we officially close the door on 2008, let's compare the S&P+ rankings from 2007 and 2008. It's rather surprising.

S&P+ Offensive Rankings, 2007 vs 2008

Close-Game S&P+: 8th in 2007, 11th in 2008
Rushing S&P+: 17th in 2007, 27th in 2008
Passing S&P+: 7th in 2007, 12th in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: 10th in 2007, 8th in 2008
Passing Downs S&P+: 5th in 2007, 21st in 2008

So the rushing game was a bit worse in 2008 than 2007, not necessarily in the way you would expect. Derrick Washington outproduced Tony Temple (5.9 yards per carry versus 5.6), Jeremy Maclin and Chase Daniel were basically equally effective in both years, and the 2008 backups (Jimmy Jackson, De'Vion Moore) produced more than the 2007 ones (JJ, Marcus Woods, D-Wash). Basically the only thing that changed was the strength of the run defense Mizzou played against. The offenses on the schedule improved, as did the pass defenses, but the run defenses did not.

Even more than the 10-place drop in rushing, there was one major drop in 2008: Passing Downs success. Every time I I've talked about Texas this offseason, I've mentioned their disproportionate Passing Downs success and how it might not be sustainable from one year to another even if the talent of the next year's offense is as good or better. Missouri's 2007 success wasn't as disproportionate as Texas' in 2008, but it was apparently a little too good, and despite the presence of Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman, their success ended up falling as the year progressed, especially after avoiding three-and-outs for the first five games of the season. The timing just wasn't quite there in Mizzou's losses, and it cost them.

So the offense regressed ever-so-slightly from 2007 to 2008. The storyline from the offseason was just how infintiely terrible Mizzou's defense was, particularly their pass defense. Is that what the numbers actually tell us?

S&P+ Defensive Rankings, 2007 vs 2008

Close-Game S&P+: 21st in 2007, 20th in 2008
Rushing S&P+: 34th in 2007, 14th in 2008
Passing S&P+: 17th in 2007, 26th in 2008
Standard Downs S&P+: 32nd in 2007, 33rd in 2008
Passing Downs S&P+: 22nd in 2007, 32nd in 2008

I realize this is probably kind of hard to accept, but according to national "+" ranking, the Mizzou defense was actually a smidge better in 2008 than 2007. You read that correctly. The Mizzou defense was actually better in 2008 than 2007. So how the hell does that happen? Haven't we heard all offseason that "Mizzou had the fourth-worst pass defense in the country*?" Two reasons:

* If I hear that line one more time without the disclaimer that a) nobody played a tougher slate of passing offenses, and b) for over half the year, opponents were getting drubbed by Missouri and therefore throwing a ton of passes on Mizzou's second string, I'm going to lose my mind. But we'll return to that...well, right now.

The slate of offenses Missouri played in 2008 was so, so much better than the 2007 slate. According to Passing S&P+, Mizzou played the #1 (Oklahoma), #9 (Texas), #10 (Nebraska), #11 (Oklahoma State), #24 (Illinois), and #25 (Kansas) passing offenses in the country in 2008. Of COURSE they were going to give up a ton of passing yards. Yes, there were some breakdowns, particularly against Illinois and Kansas, but in the end, against the six teams listed above, Mizzou fared alright. They got roasted by Texas and Oklahoma, but so did everybody else, so that doesn't really count against them. They held Oklahoma State well below their per-game averages. They held Nebraska very well below their per-game averages. Kansas was a glitch, and most of Illinois' damage came when Mizzou was up a healthy margin and the game was not considered "close." As soon as Illinois cut the game back to within a close margin, the Mizzou defense stepped up and made plays again. Which brings us to...
Junk time was very, very cruel to Missouri's per-game yardage figures. Missouri blew teams out in eight of 14 games in 2008, meaning their second string was facing the blown-out opponents first- and second-string, and most of the time those opponents were passing the whole time. But in general, Mizzou's defense took a tumble when the close-game margin (game with 28 points in Q1, 24 in Q2, and 16 in Q3/Q4) was broken.

Against Illinois, Mizzou gave up 9.1 yards per play (36 for 327) when the game was not "close" and 5.0 (41 for 205) when it was. Against Kansas State, it was 7.0 per play (39 for 274) when not close, 2.5 (36 for 89) when close. Against Nebraska, Mizzou's second/third stringers gave up 70 yards in 8 plays on the final drive. Against K-State, Mizzou's second/third stringers gave up 150 yards in 7 plays in the final two minutes. Plus, because of Gary Pinkel's obsession with not running up the score (which made the third-quarter fake field goal against Nevada all the more disorienting), Mizzou's second-stringers tend to play very conservatively, handing the other team quite a few fourth-quarter yards (against Buffalo, Nevada, Nebraska, Kansas State, and Iowa State).

Here's the bottom line: for a number of reasons, Mizzou's defense didn't make enough plays in 2008. William Moore may not have been utilized correctly, members of the secondary didn't communicate well at all at the end of the year and gave up too many big plays to KU and Northwestern, etc. But the main thing that hurt Mizzou last year was that their defense stayed about the same, while everybody's offense got better. In 2007, three of Missouri's opponents ranked among the Offensive S&P+ Top 20 (OU #10, OU #10, Kansas #12). In 2008, that number was five (OU #2, Texas #10, OSU #13, Nebraska #18, Kansas #19).

Summary

So that's why the defensive numbers didn't really change from 2007 to 2008. Here were two other factors that doomed Mizzou's dreams of 12 or 13 (or 14) wins:

In 2007, Mizzou recovered 58.7% of all fumbles that occurred. In 2008, they recovered 40.6% of them. That's a rough difference of about seven turnovers that went to Mizzou in 2007 and not in 2008. Think about what kind of difference that can make. In 2007, Pig Brown recovered two Eddie McGee fumbles and returned one 99 yards for a touchdown. In 2008, Chase Daniel ran for 50 yards in the first half against Kansas and was stripped at the end, and KU recovered. And of course, the "Danario Alexander trips and has a pass bounce off his helmet and into the arms of an OSU defender" play doesn't even count as a fumble. Mizzou just didn't get the bounces in 2008.
Passing Downs didn't go in Mizzou's favor. While the offense still did enough to rank 12th overall in Offensive S&P+ (a very good number no matter how you cut it), they improved slightly on Standard Downs and regressed rather significantly on Passing Downs (from 5th to 21st). On defense, they made enough plays to rank just about the same in Defensive S&P+, but unlike 2007 the plays they didn't make came in big Passing Downs situations (they fell from 22nd to 32nd in that regard). Passing Downs are volatile--the rankings for Passing Downs appear to change more from year to year than Standard Downs success.

For whatever reason--potentially the lack of Martin Rucker on offense, or the misuse of a blitzing William Moore on defense--those pivotal plays didn't work to Mizzou's favor in 2008, and it made certain games (two in particular) close enough that they could be doomed by bad bounces.

What does all this mean for 2009? Well, let's be honest--not much. While Missouri still has the second-most proven offensive talent in the North, the second-best defensive tackle in the North, the best linebacker in the conference, and the Carl Gettis Treatment™ (yes, I'm going to blindly pretend that all of the late-season breakdowns were Justin Garrett's fault--sue me), the onslaught of youth means that last year's performance really won't have a lot of bearing on this year's, good or bad. But if Missouri wanted to recover 60% of all fumbles again in 2009, I wouldn't complain.

Mizzou Links, 7-24-09

Bill C. — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:49:48 -0000

Lookie! The Post-Dispatch is talking Mizzou again! It had been a little while, but they came through with nice looks at (1) David Steckel, (2) David Yost, and (3) the changes Yost may or may not be making to the offense.

From (1)...

Consider "Stec Logic," a book he joked his wife, Mary Beth, is writing about his idiosyncrasies. If there were such a book, one chapter might be about his nickname: Stec, which comes with its own schtick.

"Stec's with no 'K,'" he notes. "There's a reason for that, too."

What's the reason?

"Don't worry about it,"

From (2)...

[H]e's a picker of nits as fussy as the particular Pinkel. He so detests the Times New Roman font, for instance, that he's been known to order graduate assistants to do over reports if they come in what he considers the lazy, default type face. "Everybody teases him about his hair," Pinkel said. "Let's analyze this for a second: First of all, he's a very, very bright guy. He's a family man, a great role model, very caring to all our players and one of the best teachers and coaches I've ever been around."

From (3)...

[S]urely to the delight of MU fans who have fumed over predecessor Dave Christensen's refusal to put the quarterbacks under center in short-yardage or short-field circumstances, Yost said the team worked this spring on going under center to create more options in various situations.

"Predominantly, we're going to be in the (shotgun), but (QB under center) gives you a different perspective … and (a chance) for more misdirection type things (in) the backfield," said Yost, who noted one of the reasons MU so seldom went under center with Chase Daniel was that he had caught snaps "a million times" and perhaps been under center 200 times in his life.

Meanwhile, the KC Star has a quite article on William Moore's recently-signed contract with the Falcons, while Jeremy Maclin knows nothing is guaranteed.

PowerMizzou's counting down the ten most valuable Tigers. First up, the dude whose fanclub is co-run by rptgwb and me. Okay, that's not true. Ross has totally jumped over to the Kenji bandwagon. You're still my boy, Carl.

Nice answer from Gabe in a PowerMizzou mailbag:

mws26 asks: RB seems like its got to be a position of need in this class. With Bourbon looking elsewhere we've got 4 offers out to uncommitted RB's. Are we simply waiting to see where our top guys go before extending more offers or do they feel good about the chances of one of these guys committing to Mizzou? Any chance Franklin could be a RB if he's not top-2 on the depth chart at QB?

Second part first and beware, I'm going to say something that is incredibly un-PC. People see an African-American quarterback and automatically deem him a "dual threat" and start talking about what other positions he can play. And, yeah, Franklin is probably a good enough athlete to play some other places. But I've seen the kid throw. He's a quarterback through and through.

Not to delve too far into the subject, but Gabe is absolutely right. People were wondering about a potential position change for Franklin before even seeing any film on the guy.

Quickly switching to college baseball for a sec: have we seen the end of composite bats?

Okay, back to football...so this is fun: Wiz of Odds has a Google tour of Big 12 stadiums.

Non-Mizzou Links

BOTC links to a nice column on Bill Snyder's return.
Dave Matter continues on his tour of the top 25...today (well, yesterday): #11-15. Again, no complaints--I'd have BYU lower and Oregon potentially higher.
So I'm really hoping somebody sarcastic asks Sam Bradford about his virginity next week...

And of course...

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

Surfin' SBN: Draft Edition

RPT — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Michael Norris - AP

Missouri defensive tackle Evander Hood reacts as he talks on a cellphone with the Pittsburgh Steelers after they selected him 32nd overall in the first round of the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/The Amarillo Globe News, Michael Norris)

Browse more photos »

There's not much need to tell you that it was a banner weekend for Missouri football, as six Tigers found themselves en route to new homes after officially entering the record books as picks in the 2009 NFL Draft. However, just in case you weren't paying attention, it was a banner day for SB Nation's NFL blogs, as well. Each blog had a ridiculous amount of team-specific information, and hopefully you've managed to find your way to the SBN site of your favorite franchise.

With the craziness of the weekend now wrapped up, let's take a look at what our SBN brethren are saying about the former Tigers.

Jeremy Maclin: Philadelphia Eagles (Bleeding Green Nation)

BGN: A Look at Jeremy Maclin, Fox29 Feature

BGN: With two guy blazing fast playmakers in Jeremy Maclin & Desean Jackson the Eagles WR corps looks to be set for the next few years. Maclin and Jackson could combine to make the Eagles offense into one of the most dangerous vertical threats in the NFL.

(snip)

The Eagles saw the guy they wanted and moved up to ensure they got him. We'll see what happens from here on out this weekend, but Donovan McNabb can rest easy knowing he's got at least one dynamic offensive threat this offseason.

Total Response? Site leaders seem in favor, some of the community seems to question the pick a bit more.

Ziggy Hood: Pittsburgh Steelers (Behind The Steel Curtain)

BTSC: Selection, Draft Grades, Which pick are you most excited about? (See Poll), Colbert and Tomlin on Ziggy, Day 1 Thoughts, Ziggy talks to the Media, Stay tuned for my Q&A with BTSC

BTSC: It really didn't take me long at all to warm up to this pick quite a bit. GRADE: A

BTSC: I've been full of Ziggy-love since I started looking into the DL prospects, and we got him while staying put. There's a lot to like about him: he's got good size for a 3-4 DE (it'd be nice to have another inch or two, but he still has long arms), he was productive in college, he stood out among top competition at the Senior Bowl, he had absolutely fantastic tests at the combine (which tells me he has a ton of upside), he could grow into both a good pass rusher and a good run stuffer, and he should be able to drop into coverage on occasion, too. Nothing has stood out more to me, though, than how coachable and how good of a teammate everyone says he is. I think he's an absolutely perfect fit as a Steeler and as a one gap 5 technique 3-4 zone blitz DE. He was a very solid value at one of our biggest needs.

Coach MIke Tomlin: Ziggy Hood is a Steeler type of player – there are no holes in this guy. We felt good about the information that we acquired on this man after the Combine that he really wasn’t under consideration to come in here for a visit. He is a high character guy; he plays; he has a hot motor. He loves the game of football. He was described by many members of his team who went high today as their guy.

GM Kevin Colbert: It was exciting to see him available when we were picking at (number) 32. He was just somebody that we felt good about from the first time that we scouted him until when we saw him at the Senior Bowl. When we met up with him at the Combine, everything kept adding up that this is a high-quality player and person.

Ziggy on the first thing Tomlin said to him on the phone: "The first thing he said, he wanted an extra long cheese coney from Sonic because that's where I used to work at."

Total Response? Site administration is fully on board with the pick, and outside of a few Maualuga apologists, most of the members seem to like the pick.

William Moore: Atlanta Falcons (The Falcoholic)

TF: 2009 Draft Grades, Second Round Report

TF: S William Moore (A-): The Falcons filled a need and went best player available here, so it's hard to quibble with what they accomplished by picking up Moore. Dimitroff has said he envisions Moore as the kind of safety that blows people up, which means we need a catchy explosives-related nickname for him. The Human Grenade, anyone?

TF: There are many who will say that Moore should have slipped even further, but you won't find me among them. He's an ideal strong safety in many ways, with the ability to the play the run, hit hard and close the distance quickly when covering tight ends and wideouts alike. The team clearly isn't completely sold on Thomas DeCoud at SS (which is a shame), but it should be a pretty fierce competition between the two in training camp.

Total Response? Site administration loves the value of the pick. Questions remain about Moore's coverage ability after his senior season. 87 percent of voters on the site say Moore is either an "instant starter," or "He's okay, I guess."

Chase Coffman: Cincinnati Bengals (Cincy Jungle)

CJ: Draft Pick (see poll), Five Questions

CJ: For a position that turned out several all-stars in the past, the Cincinnati Bengals haven't had a legitimate pass receiving tight end for a long time. This is a good value pick, but we didn't identify tight end so much as a need this year (more along the lines of next season). However, there's only positives that can be drawn from this and the Bengals offense should benefit as a result.

CJ: I thought that the Bengals made their first surprise pick with tight end Chase Coffman with their fourth overall pick (98th). Let me be clear, we're not saying it's a bad pick or that Coffman wouldn't be great benefit. In fact, Coffman could be a tremendous weapon for Carson Palmer. However, with Reggie Kelly, Ben Utecht and Matt Sherry, where would Coffman fit in? We don't suspect the team will release Kelly simply because of the respect level players and coaches have for him. Utecht is argued to be one half of the team's 2008 free agency busts (Antwan Odom the other). Matt Sherry was injured early in 2008 and never got a shot to showcase whatever talents he has.

Total Response? They question his ability to block and transition to a pro offense, but they know the receiver they're getting at a fantastic value. The poll is evidence that this community is on board with the Coffman pick.

Colin Brown: Kansas City Chiefs (Arrowhead Pride)

AP: Presenting the class, Draft pick

AP: Missouri OT Colin Brown was probably the Chiefs' biggest reach of the draft. Many draft boards had him as a 7th round, UDFA prospect. Clearly, Pioli and Haley saw something they liked in Brown so they took him in the fifth round.Perhaps Haley is contemplating a some version of the spread offense, which Brown played in at Missouri.

AP: What's interesting is that Brown played exclusively in the Mizzou spread offense. I wonder if that's an indication that Pioli and Haley think they have it figured out when it comes to scouting spread offensive linemen or if the Chiefs will be running something similar.

According to our Draft Interests Page, the Chiefs had no contact with Brown.

Total Response? No one seems sure what to make of the pick. Is Pioli taking this sucker airborne in KC?

Stryker Sulak: Oakland Raiders (Silver and Black Pride)

SaBP: Live Breakdown, Did the Empire "Stryker" Back?

SaBP: Another non-stop motor pick by the Raiders. Sulak played all 3 LB positions and as a pass rushing DE for Iowa’s [sic] defense, racking up 22.5 sacks and 38 TFL in 53 games. Cable said he was going to try him out at LB first, but he may end up being Trevor Scott v. 2.0 for the Raiders, providing a nickel specialist to tandem with the larger base DEs.

SaBP: As I begin to recap this draft I am looking up and the Colts just drafted Zack Follett out of Cal with the 236th pick of the draft.

I am a bit disappointed that he didn't make the cut, but, the more that I learn about Styker Sulan [sic], out of Mizzou, I can cut ties with Zack.

Total Response? They may not know where he's from or how to spell his name, but they seem excited about the value in the pick, outside of some who were pushing for LSU's Ricky Jean-Francois.

SB Nation - William Moore

CFB Big 12 Roundup: Week One

This Week's Games

What 2 Watch 4 (I Can Be Cool Too, ESPN)

Power Rankings

Mizzou Links, 9-1-09...IT'S SEPTEMBER!!!

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Secondary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

Offense (returning starters: 5)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Special Teams

Key losses

Season Forecast

Predicted order of finish

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

Mizzou Links, 8-19-09

Mizzou 2009, Part Two: Putting 2008 to bed

2008

S&P+ Offensive Rankings, 2007 vs 2008

S&P+ Defensive Rankings, 2007 vs 2008

Summary

Mizzou Links, 7-24-09

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Special Teams

Coaching

OVERALL

Surfin' SBN: Draft Edition