SB Nation - Van Alexander

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:10 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm not going to lie. As Mizzou-Kansas ended early Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was that I was going to need help from the BTBS numbers to make sense of everything I just saw. In a game that featured over 1,100 yards of offense, Mizzou's defense made the plays in the last five minutes that won the game. In a game where Danario Alexander and Dezmon Briscoe combined for 29 catches and 475 yards (seriously), it was Andrew Gachkar, Jake Harry, Brian Coulter/Aldon Smith, Derrick Washington and Grant Ressel making the breakthrough plays down the stretch. So many people did so many amazing things ... what do the numbers say about what took place?

The best receiver in the country

	Kansas (39)	Mizzou (41)
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	46.6%	46.7%
Leverage %	65.8%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	31.9	33.3
Close Success Rate	50.7%	45.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.44
Close S&P	0.944	0.898

RUSHING
EqPts	5.7	18.2
Close Success Rate	50.0%	51.5%
Close PPP	0.35	0.55
Close S&P	0.854	1.066
Line Yards/carry	3.15	3.53

PASSING
EqPts	26.3	15.2
Close Success Rate	50.9%	40.5%
Close PPP	0.46	0.36
Close S&P	0.969	0.766
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.8% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	56.3%	54.0%
PPP	0.36	0.42
S&P	0.927	0.960

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	40.0%	28.0%
PPP	0.58	0.50
S&P	0.977	0.775

TURNOVERS
Number	3	1
Turnover Pts	14.3	4.9
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.4	+9.4

Q1 S&P	1.103	0.952
Q2 S&P	0.976	0.492
Q3 S&P	0.730	1.779
Q4 S&P	0.949	0.456

1st Down S&P	0.838	0.803
2nd Down S&P	0.730	0.888
3rd Down S&P	1.529	1.116

Projected Pt. Margin	-10.8	+10.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

So many things here that I didn't expect to see:

Mizzou's offense was almost nonexistent in Q2 and Q4. Their passing numbers? Only decent, despite Danario Alexander's unbelievable third quarter (7 catches, 181 yards). And they still struggled on passing downs.
Both teams were only decent on 1st and 2nd down, but automatic on 3rd down. KU, especially, had Mizzou's defense on a string on 3rd down ... until their final two, in which Mizzou came up with two game-turning sacks.
Both teams were exactly the same from a Field Position and Leverage standpoint, despite KU starting three drives from inside their 3.
Unsung heroes: Mizzou's offensive line, which allowed one sack and plowed away for over three and a half line yards per carry.

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

I was on Big 12 North Talk Radio Sunday night and was asked about Mizzou's struggling pass defense, and I stammered through an answer about how you probably shouldn't take much away from a rivalry game (after all, Texas A&M gained 530 yards on a dominant Texas defense Thursday night), and how Mizzou's struggles have been caused by different things at different times (no pass rush and poor LB play against KU, poor tackling against Baylor, complete miscommunication against Texas, Carl Gettis' backup getting burned against NU, etc.), but despite that, there's no question that something has been amiss in recent weeks.

Here are Missouri's Passing S&P+ numbers in terms of individual game "+" scores (disregarding Furman). Remember, a) 100 = average, and b) the higher number, the better the performance.

Nevada (193.5)
Colorado (182.3)
Bowling Green (148.9)
Nebraska (109.6)
Oklahoma State (105.4)
Illinois (103.7)
Iowa State (95.6)
Kansas (84.0)
Kansas State (72.9)
Texas (66.8)
Baylor (59.4)

Over the first five games (not counting Furman), Missouri averaged a 132.2. Over the last six, Missouri has averaged a 93.5, and that's with the Colorado outlier. Missouri's five worst games this season all came in the last six weeks (and remember, this is adjusted for opponent, so even if the offenses Mizzou faced improved, that doesn't mean Mizzou's numbers should automatically fall). Meanwhile, Missouri's sack rate has actually improved over that time (from 1.0% on Standard Downs and 8.9% on Passing Downs, to 6.0% on Standard Downs and 9.9% on Passing Downs), actually giving the pass defense numbers a bit of a boost. Obviously the pass rush wasn't great against Kansas, but it's been decent down the stretch.

So what has changed in the last six weeks? For one thing, Carl Gettis got hurt. It was hinted in October and early-November that he hurt himself worse than anybody thought against Nebraska, but while his and Jasper Simmons' injuries absolutely played a role in the Baylor debacle, he's still seemed steady enough that his ankle alone can't explain a 29.2% drop in pass defense. What else has changed? Well, Hardy Ricks was lost for the season. I wouldn't have thought that would have made a difference, but maybe it did? Plus, opponents got film on Simmons and Jarrell Harrison and were probably better able to take advantage of whatever weaknesses they may have. And quite frankly, Kevin Rutland has been maddeningly inconsistent, matching nice pass break-ups with horrible mishaps.

Is there something else I'm missing here? It's not like the scheme has changed. Like it or not, the general philosophy of pass defense is simply not going to change as long as Gary Pinkel is in charge. We are going to run a basic Cover-2, and we're going to give receivers giant cushions and allow the short passes while hoping to tackle well, not get burned deep, and bend just long enough to force a mistake from the opponent. When and how we blitz may change, but in general, we defend the pass as we always have under Pinkel, and that's just the way it is. It's not like opponents suddenly figured out what we were doing and changed their approach halfway through the season. Anyway, I'm all ears. Let me know why you think things have regressed.

No matter what the cause, there's no question that, with opponent taken into account, this pass defense is not as good as in recent years. Whether you want to believe it or not, the opponent had as much to do with last year's regression in raw stats than anything else. Missouri ranked 26th in Defensive Passing S&P+ in 2008 and 17th in 2007, but they rank only 66th this season. Maybe this is just what we should have expected in losing three of four starters in the secondary (and a hit-or-miss pass rush hasn't helped). Or not.

But that's enough negativity. We did, after all, beat Kansas.

Three Positives

Always. Be. Closing. For 55 minutes, the 2008 and 2009 MU-KU games were strikingly similar. For the first half, KU's offense was strong and Mizzou made a series of mistakes, leading to a halftime deficit that could have been a lot worse than it actually was (19-10 in 2008, 21-13 in 2009). Then, Mizzou found their offensive rhythm in the third quarter and stormed back to take a fourth quarter lead (30-26 with 6:52 left in 2008, 36-28 with 13:29 left in 2009). But thanks to some combination of Reesing, Briscoe, and Kerry Meier, KU got the momentum back and, with roughly five minutes left, faced a third down in Mizzou territory.

Here's where things start to diverge. In 2008, Reesing completed a 31-yard pass on 3rd-and-11 to Marcus Herford, setting up a go-ahead TD pass to Meier (who forever earned the middle name of "Effing" after this game). Mizzou responded with a go-ahead drive of their own, but as we all know, Reesing and Meier connected again to win the game in the final minute. For the last five minutes, Reesing was 8-for-11 for 106 yards and two touchdowns.

For the last five and a half minutes on Saturday, Reesing was 0-for-3 passing with two "sacks" (the second one was considered a rush, not a sack) for a loss of 19 yards. After 55 game minutes of stress and momentum changes, KU faced a third-and-goal from Mizzou's 5, and there was absolutely no reason to think KU wouldn't convert. All game long, if Mizzou blitzed, they got burned; if they dropped into coverage, they eventually got burned. Todd Reesing was able to do whatever he wanted to do. But for the first time all game, Mizzou blitzed effectively. Kevin Rutland came at Reesing on a CB blitz, and while Reesing got away, Andrew Gachkar tracked him down and forced an intentional grounding penalty (and yes, it was a good call, as the pass landed about two yards short of the line of scrimmage). Then, nursing a three-point lead, KU now-notoriously attempted to pass out of their endzone and landed two incompletions before Reesing was sandwiched by Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter. He came within about two inches of getting out of the endzone, and those two inches gave Mizzou two points in a two-point win.

Those two inches took 2009 from a decent season to a good one. Coffee is for closers.
Blaine Gabbert's ankle. How freaking big and fast did Blaine Gabbert look in those first-half keepers?? He had a 30-yarder and a 40-yarder in the first half, and while his arm was scattering some inaccurate passes in the second quarter, his legs kept Mizzou in the game before Danario took over in Q3. This goes without saying, but it really is simply amazing how much different Gabbert looks now than he did about six weeks ago, and if Mizzou has any sort of steady receiving weapon in 2010 (Jerrell Jackson, you've got all the opportunity in the world to show what you can do), I cannot wait to see what #11 might be able to do if/when healthy for an entire season.
Domino Axelrod. Remember when Danario Alexander caught eight passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado and was the primary reason Mizzou broke out to a 30-point first-half lead? Yeah, that was his eighth-best game of the season. His output from just the last three games (606 yards) would have led the team in receiving in 2005. His three 200-yard receiving games in November match Mizzou's all-time total of 200-yard receiving games before November. The list of Alexander's superlatives this year top anything Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, etc., ever managed ... and trust me, I know what I just said, and I mean it. As I said during the game, we are never going to see sustained WR play like this again, and we need to soak it in for all it's worth.

Three Negatives

Bad time for the linebackers' worst game of the year. I'm a forgiving soul, and I try to stay even-keeled as much as possible. I'm willing to accept that Todd Reesing was simply in a zone for much of the game, and no matter what Missouri did on defense -- blitz, drop everybody into coverage, etc. -- he was just going to make some plays, as was (obviously) Dez Briscoe. But there was one part of the defensive play that I found completely unacceptable, particularly in the first half: coverage of Jake Sharp (and later on, Rell Lewis) out of the backfield. For three years, Sharp has been a more dangerous receiver than runner, and it was no surprise that Reesing would check down to him whenever possible. And yet we left him wide open with run to room, over and over again. For the game, Sharp/Lewis had nine catches for 120 yards. Seven of Sharp's eight catches came in the first half, and four went for first downs, including an inexcusable 17-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 from KU's 1 that allowed KU to get momentum, eventually scoring a touchdown to cap off a 99-yard drive.

How did the dump to the RBs succeed in ways it hadn't in the previous two games at Arrowhead? Who was to blame for this? Again, I have more questions than answers, but in the Cover-2 structure, the main people responsible would appear to be the outside linebackers and the cornerbacks. Indeed, in previous seasons, it was Sean Weatherspoon and Van Alexander making most of the tackles or defending the pass to the RB. Maybe the strategy changed this year, or maybe the LBs were just overloaded with coverage responsibilities considering how long the coverage lasted (thanks to the lack of a pass rush), but between Sharp's and Lewis' success, and the awful personal foul penalty on Spoon that allowed KU to prolong a drive and get seven points instead of three, and the fact that Gachkar went completely missing until the late-game sack, this did appear to be the worst game of the season for the Mizzou LB corps. We survived, and that's good, but they picked a bad time to have their worst game.
"The Scorpion". Again, all's well that ends well, but do you remember at the beginning of the season, when we thought the "Scorpion" defense (where Mizzou features three DEs in passing downs, lining up Aldon Smith at DT) was going to wreak havoc on most of Missouri's opponents? That didn't so much happen. Missouri now ranks 84th in Sack Rates+ this season, and even though things have improved in general over the last half of the season (again, while the overall pass defense was regressing), the pass rush produced almost nothing whatsoever for the game's first 55 minutes on Saturday. That's not a good thing when your general defensive strategy is to blitz as little as possible, drop a ton of defenders into coverage, and hope your pass rush gets to Reesing before somebody comes open. Reesing had a ton of time to find receivers, and his receivers are good enough that they're going to break open eventually. This was like playing Missouri in 2007, and honestly, Reesing looked better for most of Saturday than Chase Daniel did in 2007 when facing the same strategy.

Considering the mid-season improvement, and considering the overall youth of the defensive line (only Jaron Baston and Brian Coulter leave this season, and a majority of the team's DL playmakers return), I'm still guardedly optimistic about this unit in the future, especially considering how well Mizzou stopped the run in conference play, but for the season the pass rush has still been a major disappointment.
The two-point conversion. When Mizzou scored early in the third quarter to get to 21-19, I told my dad to brace himself -- with Gary Pinkel's history with the two-point conversion, there was absolutely a 100% chance that we were going for two, even though it was still early, and there were obviously a ton more points yet to be scored. It's not right, but it's what he does. And being that it's a consistent mind-set, I can more-or-less accept it even though I disagree with the strategy. But man oh man, that one point could have made a huge difference.

(And if you insist on going for two, and you've had to blow a timeout early in the half to figure out what play to call, at least make sure to not call the single most predictable play of the game after the timeout. Those five minutes, which included the decision to go for two, the blown timeout, and the awful play call, were the worst-coached five minutes of the game for Mizzou.)

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

Passing Downs

KU's offense will likely be relatively efficient on Saturday, meaning Mizzou must make stops on passing downs when given the opportunity. They have a pass-rush advantage in those situations, but if they don't make the sack or force a poor throw from Reesing, their propensity for breakdowns makes them extremely vulnerable. If they're giving up the dink-and-dunk stuff and allowing big plays on Passing Downs, they probably cannot win.

In the end, KU's 40% success rate on passing downs was neither great nor terrible. But the plays they did make on passing downs were gigantic. The 3rd-and-11 dump-off to Sharp that set up the game's first touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Tim Biere on 3rd-and-18 that set up the second touchdown. The 33-yard pass to Briscoe on 3rd-and-9 that set up the third touchdown. And of course, the 74-yard TD bomb to Briscoe on 3rd-and-12 in the fourth quarter. On almost every KU scoring drive, Mizzou had the Jayhawks on the ropes and let them off the hook, and while Reesing deserves quite a bit of credit for the role he played in those passes, that many breakdowns is still inexcusable, and it almost cost Missouri the game.

Danario Alexander vs Dez Briscoe

Alexander has been the best receiver in the country over the last month, and if he performs to that level again, Mizzou could score at will. Primarily because of Domino, Mizzou's offense has a significant advantage over KU's defense in terms of The Big Play, and if KU successfully takes that away (lord knows they've got the talent and experience to do so), they take away the biggest weapon in the Mizzou arsenal. Meanwhile, the other scariest guy on the field is Briscoe. While Meier gives Mizzou fans nightmares after last year's heroics, Briscoe is still the more dangerous guy. The winner of the Alexander/Briscoe battle will go a long way in determining the winner of the game.

Rarely will I nail a game key this tremendously, but for the first 55 minutes, this game was absolutely decided by these two players. Back and forth they went, with Briscoe winning the first two quarters, Alexander almost scoring a TKO in the third quarter, and Briscoe bouncing back in the fourth. For the game, Alexander had more catches (15 to 14) and Briscoe had more yards (242 to 233), but Briscoe's two fumbles and the two miscues to Briscoe on KU's final drive give Danario the edge here. But what a freaking battle it was.

MU's Running Game

[I]f Mizzou's slowly improving run game can eat away chunks of yards and Mizzou is able to both overpower KU and beat them with the big play, then they can both run up points and dominate the flow of the game. Potentially the most underrated facet of the last two games at Arrowhead was MU's running game. In 2007, Tony Temple racked up 98 yards in 22 carries. In 2008, Derrick Washington ended up with a respectable 54 yards in 11 carries but averaged under four yards per carry for the first three quarters, when Mizzou's offense was struggling and the defense was unable to get off the field. If Mizzou is running well from the start, their passing game will open up like a Venus Flytrap.

Again, nailed it. While Briscoe and Alexander more or less canceled each other out, thanks to Meier and Sharp, KU won the battle of the passing games. But Mizzou won the war because of Derrick Washington and Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert took advantage of openings in the first half and ended up with 94 yards rushing for the game; meanwhile, Washington was the finisher, closing with 111 yards and setting up Grant Ressel's game-winner with a wonderful 27-yard run on 3rd-and-2. Throw in Jerrell Jackson's 37-yard end around for a TD, and Mizzou's running game came up bigger than it had all year. Just in time to give us extreme optimism for 2010, huh?

Summary

While at home yesterday, I watched the replay of the game on ESPNU, and it really is amazing how many times the momentum turned and, over the course of the game, how many players made contributions to this win. Blaine Gabbert with his first-half rushes and great decision-making in the second half. Jacquies Smith with the forced fumble of Briscoe, and Carl Gettis for a forced fumble and two recoveries. Danario Alexander with his third quarter for the ages. Wes Kemp with his killer down-field blocking. Jerrell Jackson with his end-around (and De'Vion Moore with his amazing blocking on the play). Kip Edwards with his interception of Reesing, ensuring a one-possession deficit at halftime. Derrick Washington with his devastating second-half rushing. Andrew Gachkar with his fourth-quarter sack. Kevin Rutland with his fantastic man-to-man defense on the bomb to Briscoe on KU's final drive. Coulter and Agent Smith for their safety. Jake Harry for getting THREE punts downed inside the 3. Grant Ressel for capping off the most improbably great kicking season ever with a ride on the shoulders of his teammates. Despite all the breakdowns and all the stress the game's first 55 minutes produced, Mizzou made every play when the game was on the line, and they came away with one of the more satisfying, endearing wins of the Pinkel era. We now await the bowl announcement, knowing that a) Missouri will finish no worse than they did in 2006 (Chase Daniel's sophomore season), and b) Todd Reesing's career ended in the same endzone in which KU's national title hopes ended two seasons ago. There's poetry, and then there's poetry.

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:00:05 -0000

1 - In preparation of the most emotional Senior Day EVER at Mizzou, what is your favorite unsung moment (i.e. not just "beating Kansas at Arrowhead", but something not everybody thinks or talks about) involving this year's Mizzou senior class? Doug, if you want you can just say "Chase Daniel eating boogers."

2 - If NU beats Kansas and Missouri beats KSU and ISU, the North title is Missouri's before Armageddon at Arrowhead II even takes place. How likely is this?

3 - Quick: one reason Missouri fans should be scared of the KSU game.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri
* Kansas at Nebraska
* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
* Oklahoma at Texas A&M
* Baylor at Texas
* Iowa State at Colorado

5 - Finally, who will be Kansas State's head coach in 2009?

The Beef: 1 - There was a run during the NU game last season that crystallized it all pretty well for me. I don’t remember the exact play, but Chase ended up scrambling out (as he did for a good number of yards in that game) and gained a number of yards running down the east sideline. He was eventually forced out of bounds, but kept his feet and momentum (hey…I’m a fat guy and know how hard it is to stop sometimes) and continued to run down the sidelines. He started to jump up and down and waive his hands, even I believe trying to give someone five as he went by them. That sort of passion has certainly been displayed before on our field, but he (Chase) just seemed to connect so well with the crowd at that moment. All the more interesting to me because this was a kid coming from TX who had no ties to our state or school and who gave (or was giving at the time) everything for us to change us…and he did.

2 - Obviously I think it is pretty likely Mizzou defeats ISU and kSU…am not as sure about kU losing to NU. Yes the game is in Lincoln, but I would suspect kU got a little healthy last week against kSU coming off of their tough few weeks. It is a big game for both teams, but I still see kU having more talent on the field and on the sidelines so I am thinking they go up to NU and pull off the win.

3 - Because last week happened I guess…but that is the best I can come up with. I suppose we should be a little trepidatious (not sure that it is a word) about our emotions early in the game giving kSU any sort of hope. And while I do not believe they can do anything on defense to stop us, our pass rush does need to get to Freeman.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri – Mizzou by a whole bunch

* Kansas at Nebraska – kU by 10-14 in the end

* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech – ooooh….good one. My first thought is let down by TTech…so I will go with that. Okie State eeks one out.

* Oklahoma at Texas A&M – Can someone tell OU the white flags being waved by the folks down there are because they are surrendering? Seriously though, good for aTm for showing some signs of life the past couple of weeks…it gets beaten out of them this week by an OU team that needs to start positioning itself in possible hopes of stealing a BCS berth should other national teams start to falter (like they have in the past).

* Baylor at Texas –I refuse to comment on this game since it appears to be this game which pushed us to the ridiculous 6:00 p.m. start time.

* Iowa State at Colorado – I refuse to comment on this game because it might set football back 75 years.

5 - The only name I have heard/seen mentioned so far would be a run at Patterson from TCU, who I think would be a great get for them (especially since he would not have to replace most of his tie collection). However, I have also seen that name floated for the Tenn opening…and let’s face it…they have more money. Seems to be a strange year for coaching openings…so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. But…if it is Ron Prince, someone better find TB and put him on suicide watch…or buy him a bunch of Mizzou apparel and a season ticket and start the conversion

The Boy: 1 - As the 2004 season was finishing its collapse, and we found ourselves down 28-0 to Kansas in the second half, I more or less stopped watching the game and started watching this cluster of players on the sidelines. Every time Mizzou did anything good at all, this group started jumping up and down and chanting and cheering...Mizzou scored to make it 28-7...then 28-14...and the cluster of players started growing. I started recognizing jersey numbers and names...#14 Patton...#5 Alexander...it was basically the entire group of redshirting freshmen. For a split second, it looked like we'd come all the way back and win that game, but when it didn't happen, I found myself thinking "If it is ever going to turn around for Gary Pinkel here, it's going to be that group of players that does it." Now...that was only half-right. Some of the biggest reasons for the turnaround--Daniel, Coffman, Hood, Christopher--didn't show up on campus until the next summer, but in that cluster of chanting freshman were guys like Tommy Saunders, and Stryker Sulak, and William Moore, and Steve Redmond, and, of course, Aaron O'Neal...a bunch of guys who made significant contributions (intended and unintended) to the program on and off the field...and without those contributions, Gary Pinkel would not be coaching in Columbia right now.

2 - Before last week, I'd have said hell yeah to the idea of NU beating KU. But now I'm not so sure. KU's defense is porous enough that NU could be able to move the ball, especially if the Fightin' Pelini's are fired up after embarrassing themselves last weekend--but I think the run-pass threat that KU has going on right now will be too much. Man oh MAN would I love to see NU knock the 'Hawks off, though.

3 - I'm just going to assume that Mizzou is going to be emotionally drained and flat for most of the first quarter, and if KSU starts the game off like they did in '06 (getting a fumble return TD on the first play and moving the ball well on the ground), then they'll at least have a fighting chance of staying in the game for a while. But...no. We're not losing this game. We're just not.

4 - Mizzou 52, KSU 16
Kansas 41, Nebraska 31
Texas Tech 35, Oklahoma State 28
Oklahoma 49, Texas A&M 27
Texas 44, Baylor 10
Colorado 1, Iowa State -1

5 - Honestly, for the long-term it might make more sense to let Ron Prince sink with the "18 senior starters, about 3 of whom are talented" ship next year and bring in a new coach with a new batch of scholarships to start from scratch in 2010. And it certainly sounds like the KSU higher-ups are (the only ones) in Prince's corner. I don't know what to think about this one. It might come down to whether they win another game this year or not...if they show well against NU and ISU, maybe he sticks around...but if they humiliate themselves again in those two games, they'll have no choice but to can him.

Doug: 1 - Chase... Daniel... eating... boogers. Yeah, yeah, that'll work quite nicely.

2 - It's a road game for Kansas this weekend, and they're 1-1 in conference road games this season... but, it happened for Missouri this season, I don't see why Kansas can't win at Nebraska on Saturday. I think KU is back on track (Thanks K-State!) and now it's a question of which Nebraska team shows up, the one that played Texas Tech tough, or the one that rolled over against Oklahoma. I have no idea. That said, I think the Big 12 North title will come down to Arrowhead.

3 - Because crazier things have happened? I don't know what it is, but Kansas is like Josh Freeman's kryptonite. I've never seen a guy be that bad against one team... especially if that one team is KU. That said, he wasn't that awful against Missouri last year, 256 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. A lot depends on how well Lemark Brown can run the ball and take some pressure off of the throwing game, though I think KU was willing to sacrifice 3 meaningless rushing touchdowns to constantly be in Freeman's face. No matter what the school says, part of Ron Prince has to think his job is on the line, and maybe that'll change the way he preps the Wildcats for this game. They've got nothing to lose... and that's when a foe is at their most dangerous. (Or is that wounded and backed into a corner? I can never remember.)

4 - Missouri - And, after all that, I'll still go with the safe pick.
Kansas - I don't know if the game only being on pay-per-view is because NU isn't very good, or because the conference knows the entire state of Nebraska will shell out the $30 for the broadcast.
Oklahoma State - Why should anything be easy for the BCS?
Oklahoma - Seriously, this game is on TV? National TV?
Texas - I don't know if the Longhorns and Mac Brown ever get pissed off... but I still wouldn't want to be Baylor on Saturday.
Colorado - Because it's in Boulder... and because I had to pick a winner.

5 - Bob Krause. At this point, he's about as qualified to be head coach as he was to be Athletic Director for a Division I school

rptgwb: 1. Rather than just giving a blanket statement, I'll note some of my favorite moments for each player just going down the list:

Daniel - How do you choose just one?
Patton - Hearing the students explode every time Patton came on the field as a way of saying "thank you" for staying at Mizzou
Coffman - Which is YOUR favorite nunchuck?
Willy Mo - The pick at Arrowhead was huge, but I'll always remember the image of WillyMo standing up and flexing after picking off Juice in 2007
Jackson - Hearing Mike Kelly call him "the kid form Caruthersville" 900 times
Saunders - No defining moment for Mr. Dependable
Bridges - Without a doubt, the one-handed spinning pick of Reesing

There are obviously others, but that's where I'll cut the list for now.

2. Depending on which Nebraska and Kansas teams show up, it could be very likely. But Kansas appears to be getting its act together at least a little bit, while Nebraska can't exactly be overflowing with confidence right now. I think if they played 10 times, KU would win 6 or 7 times. Can NU play one of the 3 or 4 games this weekend? I don't know.

3. Because we just SURVIVED BAYLOR BY ONLY THREE POINTS.

4. Picks:
Mizzou over Kansas State by 35
Kansas over Nebraska by 10
Oklahoma over Texas A&M by 20
Texas over Baylor by 24
Colorado over Iowa State by 7
*Upset special: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech by 4

5. Jon Wee-fald? Weff-ald?

rptgwb: By the way, Kansas State this week = Homer Simpson in this clip:

Michael Atchison: 1 - Chase Daniel, as a freshman, relieving Brad Smith in a lost-cause game against Iowa State, and rallying the Tigers to victory. Think of the ripples. They lose that game (as they surely would have), they probably don’t go to a bowl game, Gary Pinkel likely gets fired, there’s turmoil in the program, and the last two years never happen.

2 - I think the odds of Nebraska beating Kansas are about one in four, making the odds of hypothetical outcome one in four point five.

3 - There is no reason for Missouri fans to be scared. In the parlance of this political season, I just can’t see KSU’s path to victory.

4 - Mizzou by 23.
Kansas by 6.
Tech by 2.
Oklahoma by 31.
Texas by 24.
Colorado by 4.

5 - I’ll say Ron Prince is the head coach in 2009, because if it’s not him, I have absolutely no idea who takes the job. Perhaps they should make a run at Phil Fulmer.

ZouDave: 1 - It's a virtual collage of greatness in my mind. From Stryker Sulak's pick 6 against Texas Tech in 2007, to Willy Mo's steamrolling of Marlon Lucky in 2007, to Tommy Saunders' raised finger in salute to his Grandfather, to Jimmy Jackson's GREAT performance in place of Temple against Texas Tech in 2007, to Ziggy Hood's mere presence, to Brock Christopher's INT against Nebraska this season, to Colin Brown destroying defenders all day long in the Cotton Bowl.....to Chase Daniel. I am going to miss that pudgy little bastard.

2 - Let's say 35%. kansas has been a bit more bipolar this year than even Mizzou has in that sometimes they look really good and sometimes they look really bad. Nebraska has looked better since we caved their faces in a few weeks ago, and I think they were a lot more pissed about the loss to ku last year than the loss to Mizzou. I think *this* is the game they've had circled all year. They're going to be pumped, both players and fans, and if ku starts slow again (which they've done on the road a couple of times) I'm not sure Nebraska gives them a window to come back. If kansas just plays their game, though, the Huskers can't keep up.

3 - Injury.

4 - Missouri by 42. I think we're going to rape this team.

kansas by 7. I think NU closes late but cannot make it happen.

Texas Tech by 14. Everyone is going to be looking for a letdown game for Tech, but I don't think OSU is quite as good as the rest of the South (their win over us not withstanding).

Oklahoma by as much as they want. I think OU ends up the South champion but they're going to keep getting style points just in case.

Texas by 24. They'll right the ship.

Iowa State by 10. 13-3.

5 - Honestly I think it will be Ron Prince, but I think he'll have brand new coordinators. Once 2010 is also a flop, they'll all be gone.

rptgwb: One moment I'd forgotten was the pick-six by WillyMo in Lubbock in 2006, one play after the Xzavie Jackson pick-six. That has to be one of my favorite moments of all time for vindictive reasons, leading into the depressing shot of the Tech girls with the "What the hell just happened... but, we're Texas Tech!" look on their faces.

That was a great night - I was at the American Airlines Center watching the Stars open the home season by beating Beef's Devils while catching glances at luxury boxes to keep up with MU/TTU.

ZouDave: Well maybe it's just me, but I'm much happier with a 6:00pm kickoff than I would have been with a 11:00am kickoff (or 11:30am). Not that I wouldn't have been there, early, and ready to go but I hate leaving KC at 6:30am to get to a football game. I find it difficult to get any kind of meaningful buzz going prior to the game when it's that early in the morning. And no, that's not my only concern, but it's nice when I can take my time during the day, leave KC around noon, have a solid few hours of tailgating time and then get to enjoy the game. I love Faurot Field at night (despite the OSU game this year).

2:30pm would have been the best, but KSU isn't a good enough opponent for us to have hoped for that.

The Beef: Personally, the 6:00 pm game time changed some of our plans and plans of friends visiting from out of town...but that is what it is. However, the fact it will be back into the 30's (very likely) during the game is going to kind of suck, and will keep some folks at home (which is always too bad)

ZouDave: I have faith in the Missouri fans. A year ago we though there was NO WAY we'd get a sellout against A&M on Senior Day with the early kickoff vs deer season but the fanbase stepped up and made that day great.

It's easy to dress warmly for games. Especially with it being Blackout Day, because everyone has black Mizzou sweatshirts already. I expect the fans to be packed starting the game, but the crowd will taper faster since we'll be up huge and it will be late and cold.

I just hope everyone that is there gets their asses into the stadium earlier than normal to see all of the Senior Day stuff. This is one we won't soon forget. I'm going to be openly weeping, there's simply no chance I won't be. I will probably hug a stranger.

The Beef: You are a bit of a crier....

ZouDave: You have no proof.

The Beef: Hmmm...I bet I could find some...

Doug: Will Dave's sister be there?

I'll hug her.

Michael Atchison: I don't mean to intrude on the festival of weeping over guys named "Chase," but would it be fair for me to note that basketball season starts with exhibitions this week, and that since we last convened, Marcus Denmon played the role of a white-hot Clarence Gilbert in the Black and Gold game?

The Beef: It is a fair note...so who is going to be present at the first exhibition game of the season tomorrow? Who plans to watch the proceedings on TV?

Michael Atchison: I forwarded my tickets to the nerdy guy on this site who does all those statistical pieces that no one reads. As soon as I'm back from Family Math Night at my daughter's school, I'll be settling in front of the TV.

The Beef: Boy...sure hope the nerdy guy goes to the game with those tickets

ZouDave: I will not be remotely present, and while it's on I will probably be working on the Baylor game highlights. I think some of you will be happy with the music choice...

ZouDave: I think I've cracked your code....

The Boy: Let's just say that the nerdy guy hasn't actually received the tickets in the mail yet, therefore the nerdy guy has no obligation just yet.

And the nerdy guy prefers this picture instead:

Michael Atchison: Nerdy guy need not fret. The tickets were placed in the U.S. Mail in Kansas City on Monday. They should arrive in Columbia today, or tomorrow at the absolute latest.

The Boy: And by the way...what the hell is Family Math Night???

ZouDave: In Independence it would be Family Meth Night

Michael Atchison: It’s where families from the elementary school gather to eat hot dogs and play math games to stimulate the young people’s interest in the subject. Tell me how much you want to trade lives with me.

The Beef: Does not sound all bad…I mean…I like hot dogs…what kind of condiments are we talking about though? Anything fancy? (cheese? Onions?)

Michael Atchison: Little packets of mustard and relish.

The Beef: Eh…I’ve been to worse outings…

Doug: How are the hot dogs prepared? On the rollers? Or boiled?

Try to hold out for the rollers.

ZouDave: Worst. Topic. Ever.

Michael Atchison: You guys asked. I never indicated it would be interesting.

The Beef:

ZouDave:

(An hour later...)

The Boy: I'd just like to remind everybody that the last time we had a Roundtable this lackluster, Mizzou lost. LOST!

rptgwb: You guys have no idea how scared I get on Roundtable days when I'm in class and I click an email with the "paper clip" attachment graphic next to it.

It's not easy to explain to people why I just opened an email with a huge picture of Rupaul in the middle of a lecture. Or any other time for that matter.

Doug: Oh, well now you're just going to encourage them.

The Boy: This could get ugly.

The Beef: So…um…does this change things? From GoPowerCat.com

Kansas State football coach Ron Prince is expected to announce his resignation during a 4 p.m. teleconference Wednesday sources have told GoPowercat.com. More news as this story develops. Prince was hired as K-State head prior to the 2006 season, and collected a record of 16-18 during his tenure as head coach. K-State is scheduled to play at Missouri on Saturday

Doug: Holy f...

The Beef: Yeah…that ought to spice things up

Doug: It ain't exactly Fulmer... but I never expected Prince to throw himself on his own sword like this.

The Beef: Or be pushed onto the sword bolstered by some nice compensation?

Doug: I don't know. K-State isn't exactly over-loaded with big money donors. I imagine he was offered the buy-out money and maybe next year's salary on top of that, but I highly doubt there's some comically large check with a comically large dollar figure sitting by his door right now.

The Beef: I thought there was one name I remember reading that they needed to get on board…maybe something with a V? I could be making that up though

Doug: Are you thinking of Varney's Bookstore?

Seriously though, I just pulled up the list of $50,000+ donors for the K-State Athletic Scholarship fund. There is a Dennis Von Waaden on there. Ring any bells?

The Beef: No…let me go back and try to find it…was probably on TB’s site

The Beef: From TB…

He needs to get the big boosters, primarily the Vaniers, on his side.

Doug: Oh yeah, I think that's the name on their football complex that's attached to the stadium.

The Beef: Ah…then yes…you would want to get those folks in your boat

ZouDave: Just finally able to jump in here...this is crazy! Was this his secret plan?

rptgwb: Did anyone else notice that this is two years in a row that the opposing coach has been put on the "resignation" block a few days before the Mizzou senior day game?

First Franchione in 2007, now Prince in 2008. Gene Chizik better watch himself in 2009.

ZouDave: That goes in line with us playing against what's-his-nuts up at ISU in 2006 for his last game, and against Bill Snyder in 2005 in his last game. Neither of those went well for us.

Doug: Otherwise known as Dan "What's-his-nuts" McCarney.

ZouDave: That's him

rptgwb: By the way, to refer back to my favorite Willy Mo moment from the 2006 Tech game, I finally got around to grabbing a (low-res) screenshot:

THAT is what Mizzou football does.

The Boy: The best thing about that game was, Graham Harrell had the exact same look on his face after Moore's pick. Leach had to take him out of the game for a series because he was so shell-shocked.

ZouDave: for what it's worth, I like these Texas Tech girls better:

The Beef: Good lord the one on the bottom right is a whore….

ZouDave: you know her?

The Beef: Nope….just guessing…it would be like passing Jenna Haze on the street…I might not know it was her…but I would draw the same conclusion…

And with that…we should probably wrap this up

ZouDave: especially if you're gonna be with Jenna Haze....

The Boy: He's here all week, folks.

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:00:05 -0000

I forgot today was Wednesday (it's been that kind of week), but ZouDave came through with Roundtable questions. Hoooorraaaaaay, ZouDave!

1 - On a scale of 1-14, with 1 being "not even a little" and 14 being "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy", how bad does Mediacom's service suck in the Columbia area?

2 - Which was it, a bad game from Mizzou or a good game from Buffalo?

3 - Now that your team's non-conference schedule is complete (see what I did there, Doug?), what are you most happy about? What are you most concerned with?

4 - It's a bye week. What will you be doing on Saturday in place of watching your favorite team?

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado at Florida State
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State
Virginia Tech at Nebraska
TCU at Oklahoma
Troy at Oklahoma State
Army at Texas A&M

The Beef: 1 - As an out-of-towner, I just do not know. I had Mediacom for a few years back in 2000-2003, and honestly, it was never terrible. Back then I would give it an 11 maybe.

2 - I think Buffalo is a decent team and a program slowly building themselves up (as long as they can find someone as good as Gill when he leaves)…and I think Mizzou played a decent game. We have all seen the stats of what Mizzou did. Inopportune fumbles, a once-a-decade play and a roughing the kicker penalty, and POOF!!...the game goes from about 59-10 maybe to 42-21.

3 - I am not overly concerned about a lot…just curious (I suppose) to see what sort of defensive scheme we settle into with (hopefully) a healthy V. Alexander and Willy Mo.

4 - I MIGHT actually have to work on Saturday morning, which kinda messes up my plan of laundry and drinking…I am holding out hope I don’t need to come in.

5 - Colorado at Florida State – Colorado…seems strange but I don’t think FSU is all that good…nor do I think CU has arrived but I think their offense is improved.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State – kSU by…eh…a couple of TD’s

Virginia Tech at Nebraska – NU had better win this game

TCU at Oklahoma – OU, but it might be close in the first half since I like what TCU does defensively

Troy at Oklahoma State – Okie State runs for at least 350 yards

Army at Texas A&M – Can I pick another CFL-style 1-0?

The Boy: 1 - Eleventy Billion. But at least I'm paying half as much for it as I used to. Great things happen when you threaten to leave.

2 - Yes.

Honestly, as hard as I try, I just can't get too worked up about the Buffalo game. It was a "stuff happens" game, and we still won by 3 TD's. But we do need to give credit to Turner Gill and his team--they had a solid gameplan, they made the most out of little offensive firepower, and they tackled really, really, really well.

3 - I'm happy that we get a bye week here (and Nebraska doesn't), and I'm happy that the team has something to be annoyed about (a lackluster performance against UB) during the break.

4 - I wish I could say I'll be participating in THE FIRST ANNUAL ROCK M NATION BYE WEEK OPEN THREAD!!!!1!!!!!, but instead I'll be picking up the in-laws from the KC airport. I'd complain about it, but I'm getting free Bryants out of the deal.

5 - CU/FSU: I'm not sure CU's ready to win this game yet. FSU's offense is HORRIBLE, but their defense is fast enough to give CU problems. CU got 14 points out of their scripted plays against WV, then didn't score again till overtime. This has 12-9 (4 FG's to 3) written all over it, and while I hope CU wins to help the Big 12 out, I'm going with the home (approximately) team.

ULL/KSU: One more reason to hate Ron Prince: he's the king of stupid Holtzian coachspeak. I caught bits of his weekly press conference on ESPNU this morning, and to hear him talk, you'd think ULL was the second coming of Barry Switzer's Sooner teams with their ability to run the ball. KSU wins despite their coach, 48-17.

VT/NU: I've been talking down VT for the last month, and while they certainly benefitted last Saturday by UNC's QB (TJ Yates) getting hurt when UNC was up comfortably, the fact is VT is in position to win their division again despite a massive rebuilding situation there. That said, I think highly enough of NU to think that they can overcome a really well-coached VT team. The Sea of Red even got to Chase Daniel the first time he experienced it, and it'll get to Tyrod Taylor too. NU wins, 27-17.

TCU/OU: TCU's got their typical "defense first, defense second" team, but...OU's a machine. OU wins 44-10.

Troy/OSU: Troy's competitive, but OSU will beat them by more than tOSU beat them last week. We'll say 38-14 Pokes.

Army/ATM: Good god I hope ATM wins this game...just for the sake of the Big 12. But being that their offense is more stagnant than (insert something really stagnant here), it won't be tremendously easy. We'll say ATM wins 24-6.

Doug: Oh, great... as if this thread wasn't long enough for G-Mail already.

1 - Can't say I've ever had to deal with Mediacom before... but Jenna Haze on Ecstasy? That's way more than 14.

2 - Like Seth says... The University AT Buffalo appears to be a program on the rise and Turner Gill may have actually been a good hire in the long run for Nebraska. However, for this game, I think it showed some of the weaknesses facing the Missouri defense and the fact you can't always come out in the first half and roll everybody.

3 - I'm most happy about Todd Reesing, he's still a stud and still doing nice things running the offense. The interception against South Florida was a bad play call given the situation they were in, so I can't put blame on him for that. I'm worried about the running game and the defense from time to time. There's not one running back that can clear through a defender like Brandon McAnderson could last year, and that's what's ultimately hurting them the most. The defense is still spotty at times, so they need to focus and game plan during the bye week to solve those problems.

4 - I have the Jenna Haze box set... who's coming over?

5 - Colorado... man Florida State is awful.

Kansas State... hey, isn't this the old Fresno State game?

Neb...VaT...Neb...VaT... I can't pick one... whoever it is will be by a field goal or less.

Oklahoma... is TCU trying to get Tomlinson's eligibility re-instated for this game?

Oklahoma State... yeah, this one may set some offensive records.

Army... when in doubt, pick the original military academy.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: 1. The only thing I can contribute is that the NBC affiliate in Austin is pulling it's programming on Time Warner Cable over a fee dispute and both sides are blaming each other and the end result is we may not get the Office in which case I will go on a rampage and burn this whole damn town down I swear to Jesus on a Pogostick I will.

2. Bad game for Mizzou. I'm more vexed than most. The score ended up fine, but turnovers, penalties, and....gasp... punting? These are not the makings of a confidence game. I was unhappy. Yes, I'd rather it be this game than next, and yes, everyone has them, but it's not going to keep me from grumbling. The team just needs to make sure it gets focused before Nebraska because Lincoln won't be a cakewalk like the last two.

3. I haven't looked at numbers, but it feels like we're committing more penalties, and that was a huge boon to us last year, the lack of them. I'm most happy with the fact that our offense honestly looks like it can compensate for almost any opponent's offense. But we need to figure out how much of our defense is "bend don't break" and how much is "attack" and get both of them working efficiently.

4. I'll either be at the Austin City Limits Festival or on the game thread, screaming about Lou Holtz.

5. All the big 12 teams win and cover and win pretty easily... except for Nebraska. Because they're goat f--kers.

The Boy: For the record, we had 2 penalties and 1 punt. Methinks the standards around here may be a little high. :-)

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: I know, I know, and I left at half to go to the store for the sick wife.

But still. Even the announcers commented that the Missouri guys were flat, just going through the motions. It's not like I can blame them. But seriously, the Nebraska game is one of the absolutely most important things that will happen for me personally this season. I'm okay with a loss to Texas on the road, and that one we could even survive and still make a BCS bowl-- though I think we'll win -- but I seriously want to put 70 on Nebraska in Lincoln.

The Beef: Well…I will be honest…I think the announcers were wrong as well.

The Boy: We had 2 penalties, 1 punt, put up 600 yards and gave up less than 300. The only problem with crispness was that our hands weren't crisp enough to hold onto the ball. Trust me, I'm all about worrying about Nebraska--with the 8pm kickoff, I'll be a complete freaking (well-lubricated) mess by the time the game starts--but the Buffalo game makes me fear NU no more than I did (or didn't) before.

Doug: I really didn't need to hear how you get ready for a game.

Michael Atchison: 1 - I don’t even know what we’re talking about with regard to Mediacom’s service in Columbia (I’m a Time Warner customer in Kansas City), so on the scale of 1 – 14, I’ll give it a Q.

2 - It was a bad game (relatively) from Mizzou. When Coffman, Maclin and Perry all turn it over, and when their best drive is sustained by Mizzou’s penalties, you know it’s about Mizzou’s lapses. Luckily, everything I’ve seen from this team tells me it was an aberration. I’m glad they got it out of their system.

3 - I’m most happy about coming out of it 4-0 with most of the team in good health. I’m most concerned about the play of our corners, especially Castine Bridges, who seems to spend a lot of time not knowing where the ball is.

4 - I’ll be at Disney World!

5 - CU shocks FSU by 6.

K-State by 9.

Hokies beat the Corn by 8.

Oklahoma by 31.

Okie State by 22.

A&M by ½ point.

The Boy: I just realized I didn't answer the "most concerned" part. The biggest concern has got to be the fact that we're still giving up a big play a game in the passing game. Granted, that will improve with the return of William Moore, and Castine Bridges began to play better the other day, we still don't have a 100% reliable option as the CB opposite Carl Gettis, and Delstin Garward continues to be decent but shaky at SS.

Oh, and I don't think we can use "shock" to describe CU potentially beating FSU--FSU losing just isn't shocking anymore.

ZouDave:

ZouDave: 1 - Having only lived in Columbia for a single year of my life, and that was in 1994-1995, I obviously don't know for sure. But this question serves 2 purposes well. 1) it gets Jenna Haze mentioned AGAIN, proving we are the sports authorities on Jenna Haze. 2) it's a nod to The Boy and his problems. Little did I know his problem was actually him being forgetful, not him having service issues.

2 - I unfortunately didn't get to see the game because I had to go to a wedding in Braymer, MO (home of Colin Brown). I listened to the entire first half, and spent a lot of it screaming at the radio, and then followed the 2nd half through text messages from Gabe DeArmond. It was great, because the wedding I was at was of a Mizzou alum and probably 1/3 of the guests were either Mizzou alums or Mizzou fans. Everyone kept coming to me for updates, which was fun. It sounds to me, though, that this was neither a good game for Buffalo nor a bad game for Mizzou. Buffalo was the recipient of a few big mistakes from our team, but we also dominated them on offense and kept their offense from doing what they wanted to do. I think it was just another game for Mizzou, and we happened to turn it over 3x more than we had all season.

3 - I am most happy about Derrick Washington. I was hoping he would be this good, but I didn't think it would actually happen. Having a running game like this with our passing attack is on the verge of unfair. I'm most concerned with our lack of consistent pass rush from the front 4. That seemed to be a MAJOR strength last year with all of our defensive linemen getting multiple sacks and pressures on the season. So far, we seem to only bring consistent pressure if we commit a safety and linebacker to a blitz, which leaves our secondary a bit exposed. I think, as Beef said, a healthy Van Alexander and Willy Mo will help that a lot.

4 - I'm going to be playing Rock Band 2 with a few friends for much of the day, but we're going to pick out a couple of games to watch on TV as the day goes along.

5 - Colorado at Florida State - I'm going to take FSU, simply because they're at home. I think these teams are evenly matched.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State - KSU better win this by 30, but I bet they only win by about 17.

Virginia Tech at Nebraska - Nebraska is going to win this, maybe even with relative ease, and force their way into the Top 25 in time for us to ruin their season once again.

TCU at Oklahoma - Love the Horned Frogs, but this will NOT be a repeat of 2005. OU by 28.

Troy at Oklahoma State - OSU out for revenge. Cowboys by 30.

Army at Texas A&M - ugly, ugly game. I'll pick A&M, but by less than 7.

Is anybody making the trip to Lincoln? I wish I could, but money is tight.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: Sadly, no. I had to save up... FOR MY TRIP TO KC FOR THE BORDER WAR! BOOYAH!

ZouDave: You have chosen...

...wisely.

The Beef: Nope…been there once…was enough for me…the only road game right now I am looking at is Iowa State…but I should be in KC for the game after the kU game

ZouDave: yeah one of the reasons money is tight is because I'm pretty well invested in going not only to the ku game at Arrowhead, but also the Big XII Championship game. Yes, I'm being that presumptuous.

I have my doubts I'll be able to make it to the Bowl Game this year, with the catch being that if by some MIRACLE the Tigers appear in the Rose Bowl then dad and I will be going to that. Since my sister lives in Thousand Oaks, CA, that's close enough that it's an easy drive and we wouldn't have to pay for a hotel. Airfare and ticket isn't a bad trip.

The Beef: The wife and I are hoping to make a bowl trip, but as she is now a teacher, time off for her will be tough since many of the games we might likely end up in are now on weekdays and outside of the normal school vacation. But…we shall see I suppose

Michael Atchison: Made the Lincoln trip in 2006, but I’m skipping this time. This coming weekend marks my fifth straight on the road. I’m looking forward to spending a Saturday at home, watching on the tube.

ZouDave: In a not remotely related story...

rptgwb: Oh my Lord, I just opened this email in class and very nearly had to explain why I was doubling over laughing when I saw the phrase "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy."

1. It's close to a 14. If the question is how much more could Mediacom suck? To pull an idea from This is Spinal Tap: "The answer would be, none, none more suck."

2 - How about both? Great gameplan by Buffalo, shoddy ball protection by Mizzou.

3. I'm most happy that Mizzou stayed at 4-0 without any major injuries (nagging injury to Willy Mo and the injury to Kurtis Gregory aside). I am a tad concerned about the pass defense, but I'm certainly not losing sleep over it at this point.

4. In addition to the Bye Week Open Thread, I'll be out covering Mizzou volleyball against SIU-Edwardsville.

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado over Florida State by 7
Kansas State over Louisiana-Lafayette by 17
Nebraska over Va Tech by 4
Oklahoma over TCU by 28
Oklahoma State over Troy by 14
Texas A&M over Army by 10

ZouDave: So you haven't gotten to see a single game, even on TV, yet Atch? Yikes. I would have died by now.

The Boy: I assume he's counting the three home games (and maybe the Illinois game, if he went) as "weekends on the road".

Michael Atchison: I’ve seen some games at night, but not many, and I don’t think I’ve seen one in its entirety. And I won’t get to see any this weekend as I stroll around the Magic Kingdom. But I will watch many, many games on October 4.

ZouDave: Oh, that makes a helluva lot more sense.

Disregard my incompetence.

You've planned your trip well, that's good.

Doug plans his trip to Disney World for the first week of June in 2009. Let's see how long it takes someone to get that one.

Michael Atchison: Yes, indeed, I’ve been to every game thus far, none of which have been where I live.

Doug: I assume you already have that date circled on your calendar.

Dave, are you already cutting up your jeans for hot-jorts?

ZouDave: assless chaps, baby...nothing butt the best!

Doug: That's what HE said.

ZouDave: Let's see if we can "re-rail" this thing.

I was talking to a couple of friends earlier this week about projected stats. Just for fun, here's Mizzou:

Chase Daniel - 303/399, 4236 passing yards, 36 passing TD, 3 INT, 42 attempts, 222 rushing yards

Derrick Washington - 159 attempts, 1082 rushing yards, 24 Rushing TD, 21 catches, 238 receiving yards, 3 Receiving TD

Chase Coffman - 84 catches, 1138 yards, 9 TD

Jeremy Maclin - 78 catches, 1174 yards, 12 TD

Tommy Saunders - 57 catches, 924 yards, 6 TD

Jared Perry - 48 catches, 810 yards, 6 TD

That's early 90's Houston Oilers disgusting right there. We'd have a very hard time reproducing that on NCAA 09 on the 360. Obviously, this doesn't take into account Danario Alexander's addition to the lineup, but just assume even if Saunders and Perry each drop by 1/3 and give those numbers to Danario it's still just a ridiculous offense. And these numbers don't include a likely Big XII Championship Game or Bowl Game!

(Two hours later...)

The Boy: Yeah, that re-railed nothing.

ZouDave: My back hurts from carrying your ass all day, I can't do everything!

Doug: That's what...never mind.

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:30:05 -0000

Well, I still don't feel like we have enough of a sample size to use 2008 numbers here yet, so once again we'll use 2007 numbers and rely on some manual adjustments on my part...

Mizzou-Buffalo Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.73
Projection #1: 18.77
2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts+: 72.84
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 22.25

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 21.51

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Derrick Washington is the man. I was unimpressed with the run-blocking against Nevada, but I'll give them a pass. Struggle with success rates against Buffalo, and we've got trouble.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.63
Projection #1: 18.23
2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts+: 75.78
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 24.28

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 21.26

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Mizzou's passing game is better in 2008.

Buffalo Rushing

2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts+: 74.43
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 6.17
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.38
Projection #2: 7.69

Projected Buffalo Rushing Output: 6.93

Adjusted for 2008: 6.0 - They held Nevada below their average, and Buffalo doesn't have Colin Kaepernick and his play-fakes.

Buffalo Passing

2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts+: 90.69
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 11.01
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.26
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Buffalo Passing Output: 9.97

Adjusted for 2008: 11.0 - I'm willing to accept that the Willy-to-Roosevelt combo is worth a few points.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 48, Buffalo 17

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 51, Buffalo 14

Before we dive into individual stats, I thought it might be interesting to delve into the one game Buffalo's played so far that might actually tell us something...their matchup against Pitt from a couple weeks ago, a game Pitt won, 27-16.

Buffalo		Pittsburgh
	% Close = 100.0%
	TOTAL
65	Plays	64
19.97	EqPts	23.73
53.8%	Success Rate	51.6%
0.31	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.37
0.846	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.886

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
6.57	EqPts	11.77
65.5%	Success Rate	51.7%
0.23	PPP	0.41
0.882	S&P	0.923

	PASSING
13.41	EqPts	11.96
44.4%	Success Rate	51.4%
0.37	PPP	0.34
0.817	S&P	0.856

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
56.5%	Success Rate	60.9%
0.33	PPP	0.40
0.894	S&P	1.012

	PASSING DOWNS
47.4%	Success Rate	27.8%
0.26	PPP	0.29
0.729	S&P	0.567

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.58	Points Lost	1.79
1.51	Points Given	0.00*
3.09	Total T/O Pts	1.79
-1.39	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.39

* It was the last play of the half, so the ending field position doesn't matter unless it was a TD...and it wasn't.

So what does this tell us? Well...Pitt's offensive numbers don't tell us much because, well, Pitt's offense obviously isn't in the same league as Mizzou's. One thing to note, though, is that the Panther Offense had its way with Buffalo on Non-Passing Downs. It was hard for Buffalo to leverage Pitt into passing situations, but the biggest problem for defenses against Mizzou is that Mizzou's as good in passing situations as most teams are in non-passing situations. Mizzou's 0.929 S&P on Passing Downs is pretty ridiculous (as is their 1.201 S&P in Non-Passing Downs).

In other words, Buffalo's performance against Pitt doesn't give me any reason to think Mizzou will be held in check in any way, shape or form.

Defensively, though, Pitt's pretty comparable to Mizzou--actually, they may be a smidge better depending on which Mizzou defense shows up at any given time. Buffalo's performance against Pitt was interesting. The vaunted (relatively-speaking) Buffalo passing game was fine, but not great. Drew Willy's official line was 21-for-34 with 223 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. I'll be impressed if he matches that on Saturday, but he could at least come close. Meanwhile, Buffalo was very efficient running the ball (a 65.5% success rate is quite high), but completely devoid of any big-play potential. James Starks and Brandon Thermilus combined for a nice 117 yards on 24 carries, but the name of the game is easy points, especially against Mizzou, and UB's RBs provided none.

Special Teams

I'll say this as succinctly as possible: Buffalo has an entirely nondescript special teams unit. That's better than having a bad special teams unit, but...yeah, there's not much here. Their punter only averages 39.0 yards per punt, but they haven't allowed much of any returns so far (which is a nice thing against Mizzou). They're 2-for-3 on FGs and have had decent-not-great returns in limited opportunities. Naaman Roosevelt is a potential weapon in the return game, but he hasn't broken loose this year yet.

Oh yeah, and Mizzou has the best special teams unit I can ever remember Mizzou having. This is worth another 3 points in Mizzou's favor.

Key Players for Buffalo

QB Drew Willy

This is the closest thing to an early pro tryout Drew Willy's going to get. You have to figure there will be some scout in attendance on Saturday, and if Willy can produce against what is at least an above-average defense at this point (though a defense that will likely be missing William Moore), he'll begin to get on pro teams' radar screens a bit. His line for 2008 (60-for-92, 792 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs) is quite impressive.

WR Naaman Roosevelt

Though he's now known as "that guy who caught the mini-Hail Mary", Roosevelt is also by far Buffalo's biggest weapon, and as I said early, easy points is the name of the game here. So far in 2008, Roosevelt has 18 catches for 351 yards and 3 TDs. This is no fluke either--he had 1500+ yards and 9 TDs in 2007. I can't figure he'll have a great game lined up opposite Carl Gettis, but if Buffalo has a prayer of winning, it's going to be because of Roosevelt.

DEs Andrae Smith and Mike Thompson

The blueprint for beating Mizzou is simple, really: have fantastic DEs, get in Chase Daniel's face, confuse him by dropping different people into coverage every play, hope to get lucky on a couple Curtis Lofton-style turnovers...et voila! Victory is yours. To follow that blueprint, Smith and Thompson (who have combined for 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks and 5 QB hurries) will have to play better than they ever have in their lives. Good luck.

LB Justin Winters

Arguably the Bulls' best defender so far this season, the sophomore from Greenbelt, MD (which has a lovely mall and Honduran food restaurant!), has 28 tackles, a sack, and an INT in three games this year. He is the most likely guy on the team to produce the Curtis Lofton-style turnovers, but...no. It's not going to happen.

Fun note: in the most recent UB depth chart (pdf!), Winters is listed at 6'11, 202. I'm going to assume that's a misprint...though how awesome would that be??? Okay yeah, it's a misprint.

Okay, another fun note while we're at it: Buffalo currently has starters from New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, New Jersey, and...Australia. Good times.

Key Players for Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Buffalo touts its rushing defense, and the fact that they're giving up less than 100 yards a game on the ground is certainly impressive. But they've only faced one decent rushing team--Pittsburgh--and as I said in the preseason, I don't think as highly of LeSean McCoy as others do. Well, McCoy had 93 yards on 20 carries against Buffalo. I expect Washington put up that much in 12-15 carries, to be quite honest. But if the run-blocking is still suspect, and Buffalo can remove Washington from the equation...well...it still probably won't matter, but it could.

LB Van Alexander

Probably Buffalo's most impressive stat so far has been its 3rd-down conversion rate (55%). They get themselves into manageable third downs, and then Drew Willy finds somebody to move the chains. Chances are, it will be up to the Mizzou LBs to put a stop to any hope of a good rushing day for UB and leverage Buffalo into passing downs. I was going to say Sean Weatherspoon is the key here, but that's too obvious--so I'll say it's Van Alexander, who will likely see a lot of playing time and will probably be going at double-speed trying to make plays.

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

As is the case every week, they're the key simply because they haven't turned the corner in pass coverage yet. They were certainly decent on Saturday, but there was still a ridiculous breakdown on the last play of the first half, so all is not entirely well. Plus, with William Moore (probably) out, these two and Hardy Ricks will see even more PT than normal. Assuming the Mizzou offense is clicking, then the defense can have a breakdown or two and be fine, but I'd like to be confident in the secondary heading into conference play, and I'd like for Delstin Garward to show me something.

QB Blaine Gabbert

Why? Because if things go according to plan on Saturday (knock on wood), this could be his last opportunity to play for a while. The playcalling hasn't given him many opportunities to shine, but maybe he'll get to show off the right arm a bit on Saturday.

Summary

Buffalo's best quarter is Q1. Its worst is Q2. If Mizzou manages to get up early in this one--as is normally the case at home--then this one will be academic quickly. But there's a chance the Bulls make it a game through at least the first 15 minutes. We'll see. All I know is, Naaman Roosevelt is the Bulls' only proven big-play threat, and Mizzou is still very good at taking away a team's #1 weapon. If Gettis (and whoever else) shut down Roosevelt, Willy (who is not altogether mobile) will be facing many passing downs and a pass rush hungry after a couple of mediocre weeks. Without the big plays for UB, this one should get ugly. Mizzou 52, Buffalo 13.

Poll

BTBS projections say Mizzou by 37.

Too optimistic for Mizzou?

22 votes

Not optimistic enough?

76 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Van Alexander

The Border War: Beyond the Box Score

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Mizzou(41)

What to make of Mizzou's pass defense

Three Positives

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Three Keys Revisited

Summary

Rock M Roundtable!

Rock M Roundtable!

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

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Pittsburgh

BTBS projections say Mizzou by 37.

Too optimistic for Mizzou?

Not optimistic enough?

Kansas
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