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Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

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Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

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Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

---

Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Unlike Bo Pelini, Mike Gundy faces Year Five expectations...in year five.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Today it's time to discuss the first game of the schedule that most Missouri fans agree will be a loss--the October 17 trip to Stillwater. But fear not, Tiger fans! Mizzou has OSU right where they want them: in Stillwater. Quite simply, MU-OSU games never, ever, ever turn out as they're supposed to. The road team in this series has won five of the last six. MU has won in Stillwater three straight times--1997, 2001, 2005--and OSU has won in Columbia the last two--2004, 2008. Strange, silly things happen in this series (including overtime--one in 1996, two in 1997, three in 2001), which in this case is good news for Missouri, but when "strange things happen" is your #1 reason for optimism, you know this isn't a game you're expected to win.

So why is everybody piling on the 'Pokes as this year's Texas Tech, the team expected to possibly break up the OU/Texas stranglehold on the South? Explosiveness on offense and experience on defense. Today, we look at the offensive side of the equation; but first, we start with a look back at 2008.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 236.7 (14th in the country, 4th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 530-365 (+165)
Conference Scoring Margin: 292-236 (+56)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri, #40 Baylor, #42 Troy, #51 Houston, #82 Colorado, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #118 Washington State, 1-AA SMS
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #11 Oregon, #15 Texas Tech

Say this much for Oklahoma State: they're the exception to the "Bowl performances are overblown regarding the next season's expectations" rule. They really didn't perform well after November 1, but expectations for them in 2009 have gone through the roof regardless. And for the most part, it's easy to see why. Their top skill position talent returns intact--they don't really have any pass catchers after Dez Bryant, but it's not completely clear that they need any; their offensive line is extremely experienced, and their defense is experienced if not amazing. The pieces are in place, and as I was saying this time last year about Texas Tech, if they're ever going to break through into that top tier, now's the time.

When all was said and done in 2008, OSU had gone 8-0 against teams ranked below 15th in the country, and 1-3 against teams above. So it makes sense, really, that they would end up the year 14th. Their W/L performance was quite steady and consistent, even if their defensive performance wasn't. But we'll get into "pre-November 1 vs post-November 1" defensive issues tomorrow. The 2008 season, in the end, represented a lovely step forward for the OSU program, their first 9-win season since 2003 and only their second since 1988. And unlike those seasons, and majority of the talent from that 9-win squad returns.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mike Gundy
Record at Oklahoma State: 27-23 (conference: 13-20)
Career Pythagorean Record: 27.79 wins (-0.2/year)

Let's get all the jokes out of the way now. Mike Gundy is a man, he's 41, etc. He's also captained an OSU team that has jumped from 4-8 to 7-6 (twice) to 9-4 in his four seasons, and even though the growth of OSU's overall athletic facilities has hit a bump in the road recently, there is still a lot to like about the direction of the athletic program as a whole and the football program specifically. They'll probably take a step backwards in 2010 after losing Dez Bryant (probably), Zac Robinson, Russell Okung, most of their LBs and DB, etc., but the trajectory is good, and Gundy has to be considered one of the reasons why that is the case (after T. Boone Pickens, anyway).

Looking at Pythagorean projections, OSU has won pretty much exactly the amount of games their points and point differential would project. Blowouts skew the Pythagorean numbers, and while I haven't figured out how to account for that yet, they haven't skewed Gundy's numbers too much.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 123.5 (#13)
Success Rate+: 114.3 (#18)
PPP+: 135.5 (#8)

Standard Downs S&P+: 118.5 (#14)
Passing Downs S&P+: 136.9 (#10)

Redzone S&P+: 113.9 (#28)

Q1 S&P+: 130.0 (#16)
Q2 S&P+: 114.9 (#28)
Q3 S&P+: 159.2 (#1)
Q4 S&P+: 95.2 (#80)

1st Down S&P+: 129.9 (#7)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.3 (#22)
3rd Down S&P+: 111.0 (#37)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 123.2 (#13)
Rushing SR+: 115.5 (#20)
Rushing PPP+: 135.6 (#12)

Standard Downs: 115.9 (#25)
Passing Downs: 148.3 (#6)

Redzone: 112.7 (#38)

Line Yards+: 110.2 (#30)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 129.4 (#11)
Passing SR+: 114.1 (#19)
Passing PPP+: 147.2 (#7)

Standard Downs: 127.4 (#9)
Passing Downs: 140.1 (#11)

Redzone: 116.2 (#30)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.3% (#27)

Of all the categories above, in only one did the Cowboys rank outside of the Top 40 (Q4 S&P+), and only twice were they outside the Top 30 (Q4 S&P+, 3rd Down S&P+). They were pretty consistently in the 80th percentile (at least) in most offensive categories.
The major contrast that jumps out here has to be their Q3/Q4 performance. No real explanation for that. Teams who win a lot of blowouts tend to see their Q4 numbers suffer simply because the starters are no longer on the field--Missouri was similar in that regard--and sure enough, OSU saw their fair share of blowouts (39-13 over Wazzu, 57-13 over SMS, 55-24 over Troy, 56-28 over ATM, 34-6 over Baylor). However, they also faced plenty of tight games and didn't fare too well late. In the last ten minutes of their closer games--Missouri, Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon--they scored only 13 points combined. Whether that was poor execution or predictable play-calling (from what I saw of the MU, OU, and UO games, it was a little of both), that clearly needs to improve considerably if they are to finish 2009 in the Top 10.
I'm not a huge fan of the "balance" given love in this ESPN Insider article, simply because there is too much variety in play calls to accurately break things down into "runs" and "passes." For instance, Mizzou uses a lot of "long handoff" types of passes that are simply intended to stretch the field like a wide run play would, but it's categorized as a pass. Simply balancing rushing yardage and passing yardage doesn't say you were equally adept at both.

That said, finishing 13th in Rushing S&P+ and 11th in Passing S&P+ is pretty damn impressive. Granted, six other teams managed Top 15 in both categories--Florida (1st in Rushing S&P+, 3rd in Passing), Penn State (2nd, 6th), Texas Tech (4th, 15th), Oklahoma (6th, 1st), USC (7th, 2nd), and Stanford (10th, 13th)--but still. Impressive.

Quarterback

Zac Robinson: underrated? Correctly rated? Deemed "underrated" so long that he's now overrated? Your call. Dude's good, though.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Robinson (6'3, 218, Sr.)
Alex Cate (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Brandon Weeden (6'4, 215, So.)

In a conference full of superstars at his position, Zac Robinson has managed to stay more-or-less under the radar. Most of that, I'm sure, has to do with the fact that, even in leading his 'Pokes to nine wins last year, OSU was only fourth in the South Division, below teams quarterbacked by Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Graham Harrell. But in justifying their leaping the Cowboys into their preseason Top 10 lists, many writers have cited Robinson as a main reason. He is a unique and uniquely effective quarterback, matching fast legs with fast decision-making.

Even though he is only a decent runner and not a great one (he was 27th among QBs for Rushing POE), he is a persistent one, averaging 12.4 rushes per game in conference play and the Holiday Bowl. And while he isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.

Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Running Backs

Needless to say, Missouri fans know how good Kendall Hunter can be.

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Kendall Hunter (5'8, 190, Jr.)
Keith Toston (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Beau Johnson (5'10, 210, Sr.)

Heading into last year's OSU-Mizzou game, I didn't know just how impressive Kendall Hunter really was. After all, his numbers were no more impressive than those that Dantrell Savage had managed the year before, and besides...how impressed was I supposed to be by his to-date 2008 performance? 23 carries for 107 yards against a pathetic Wazzu defense? Eleven for 132 against SMS? Granted, 22 for 210 against Houston was damn strong no matter how iffy Houston's defense was, and there was nothing wrong with his 24-for-169 against Troy. But still...Mizzou's rushing defense was by far the best OSU had faced at that point in the season.

That he put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

In the end, Hunter posted a +34.0 POE (Points Over Expected) mark, good for 5th in the country (behind Cal's Jahvid Best, Iowa's Shonn Greene, Oregon's LeGarrette Blount, and Georgia Tech's Jonathan Dwyer) and first in the prolific Big 12.

Behind Hunter resides the most proven backup in the conference (outside of Norman, anyway). One-time Mizzou recruiting target Keith Toston has recovered from knee problems to give the 'Pokes a steady #2 option. Toston put up 686 yards in 2008 (6.7 per carry), and his +16.5 POE was good for 27th in the country, ahead of Roy Helu Jr. and Baron Batch, among others. There is little wonder why OSU's RBs ranked 1st in the conference, edging out OU's in the process.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The Man.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Justin Blackmon (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
DeMarcus Conner (6'1, 206, Sr.)
Hubert Anyiam (6'1, 198, So.)
Isaiah Anderson (5'10, 175, RSFr.)
Adrian Richards (6'4, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Wilson Youman (6'5, 252, So.)
Jamal Mosley (6'4, 243, So.)
Cooper Bassett (6'5, 250, RSFr.)

Let's be honest. If you can claim that you recognize any of the names above that aren't "Dez Bryant", you're either a) an OSU fan (and a pretty big one at that), or b) lying. The biggest question mark for the 'Poke offense in 2009 is, will any reliable second threat emerge in the passing game? They don't have to be All-Conference caliber--they just have to be able to make teams pay for double- (or triple-) teaming Dez Bryant. Signs point to...who the hell knows? Justin Blackmon impressed many during spring football, but...well, every year, at every school in the country, somebody impresses during spring football and doesn't make a sound in the fall. He could be amazing, but I'll start believing when he does it in real games (same with Mizzou's Aldon Smith, really). What we know for sure is, the non-Bryant names on that list combined for 12 catches, 141 yards, and 0 TDs in 2008. Damian Davis had "potential" written all over him, and he was a dagger against Missouri, but he went and got himself kicked off the team this spring.

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Offensive Line

Okung leads a super-experienced line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #12 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Russell Okung (6'6, 305, Sr.)
C Andrew Lewis (6'5, 290, Sr.)
T Brady Bond (6'7, 295, Sr.)
G Anthony Morgan (6'5, 320, Jr.)
G Noah Franklin (6'5, 310, Sr.)
T Andrew Mitchell (6'5, 308, Sr.)
G Jonathan Rush (6'5, 309, So.)
G Ahmad Jones (6'2, 309, So.)
C Grant Garner (6'4, 286, So.)
T Patrick Hoog (6'4, 298, RSFr.)

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

Summary

Zac Robinson is a senior. Dez Bryant is almost certain to be projected as a high NFL draft pick next April, and is therefore not likely to return for another season. Keith Toston is a senior, while the only thing that might bring ~~Lindsey~~ (D'OH!) Kendall Hunter back for a senior year is the fact that he's not very big and therefore might not be projected as tremendously draftable. Five of probably the team's six best offensive linemen are seniors.

In other words, the time is now. Whereas most of the Big 12's bottom ten teams will likely improve between 2009 and 2010, OSU will not. If they are to make serious national noise anytime soon, it is going to be in 2009. But hey, no pressure.

While they are not tremendously deep, few teams possess such great individual talent in each unit as OSU does--they have potential All-Americans at QB, RB, WR, and on the OL. For this offense to score the points necessary to challenge the Oklahoma's and Texas's of the world, they must improve on third downs, and they MUST improve in the fourth quarters of close games. Whether that means better conditioning, less nerves, or simply more unpredictability (here's where a great #2 receiving option would come in handy), it has to happen. You know Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy will be calm, confident, and looking to make plays in the fourth quarter. Will Zac Robinson? Will he have the right plays to run? That could make the difference between a South title run and another solid-but-slightly-disappointing 9-win season.

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

RPT — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:51:00 -0000

Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.

Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.

Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.

Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.

The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).

More rambling after the jump.

Needless to say, when the game finally kicked off, Mizzou still didn't seem ready to play. No disrespect to NU, but between penalties and dumb mistakes, Mizzou was beating Mizzou. It took a football team as talented and as sound as Northwestern to make Mizzou pay for its mistakes, but for the majority of the game, the Tigers did not play like a team that deserved to win, much less like Big 12 North champions or a team that began the season with BCS aspirations.

As far as players on the field are concerned, that all began with Chase Daniel's play in the final game of his illustrious Missouri career. I couldn't believe it was happening, but in the second half, Daniel found himself being booed by the Missouri fans after another missed deep ball. What was more unbelievable, though, was that I understood the booing, and semi-agreed. As I look back, Daniel is a victim of his own expectation. When we come to expect excellence, then "pretty good" looks lackluster. When we expect at least "pretty good," an average effort by most QBs standards looks downright pedestrian. And that's exactly what Daniel looked like last night - pedestrian. What made Daniel great in 2007 was his decision making and his ability to always find an open receiver. In 2008, Daniel trusted his arm at the expense of his head. The third INT was a perfect example. Daniel thinks he sees blitz, predetermines a receiver, and one throw later, Mizzou is in trouble.

As for Jeremy Maclin, what can be said that already hasn't? When the game ended, J-Mac smiled as he walked in front of Missouri fans collectively chanting "One more year!" I found myself chanting along, but in my heart, a large part of me wants to see him go to the next level. No. 9 has done wonders for this university in only two years, and his service will continue if he represents the Mizzou football program in a positive manner in the NFL at the level projected for him by NFL scouts.

The same goes for Coffman, minus the questions about his return. I don't need to expound upon the love the Flying Nunchuk gets around these parts, but I'm not sure I'll ever see a set of hands like No. 45's in a Mizzou uniform again, and that's no slight to future Tigers. Watching him in person has been a privilege I'm not sure I can accurately convey with words.

Defensively, a couple of downfield breakdowns aside, we were able to see the kind of individual talent on this defense that was so highly touted before the season and so highly criticized as it progressed. I'm not sure how others have graded them out, but from field level, the D-Line looked absolutely incredible. Stryker Sulak had the type of game you come to expect from Stryker Sulak (including his second straight bowl game Superman). Jaron Baston commanded special attention inside. The numbers may not reflect it, but Ziggy Hood was dominant inside, as the NU guards had no answer for Z's quickness (causing the back-to-back holding penalties in NU's red zone). Brian Coulter showed good burst when he decided to line up on the correct side of the neutral zone, and Jacquies Smith continues to show an uncanny ability to get upfield every play, a huge asset on passing downs but a bit of a concern on rushing plays and screens.

The linebacking corps displayed why it was the backbone of this defense all year, as Sean Weatherspoon was unequivocally the most dominant player on the field Monday. Run stopping? Spoon. Pass coverage? Spoon. Pursuit? Spoon. Wrapping up? Spoon. Holding teammates accountable? Spoon. Firing teammates up? Spoon. But for all of the love we feed Spoon, Brock Christopher has been very much a forgotten man among common Missouri fans. Christopher's knack for timely turnovers (against Baylor and all opponents named "NU") hopefully draws attention to his nose for the football. While I have no doubt that Missouri has an excess of linebackers who can fly (Gachkar, Ebner, etc.), I'm slightly scared to see if Missouri has anyone capable of filling Brock's shoes of a linebacker who can break down and maintain leverage inside, particularly against the run.

Yet, watching the defensive backfield was like watching a bad rerun. Carl Gettis couldn't have picked a much worse time for the worst game of his career (after RMN has vehemently defended him). Justin Garrett was once again either the victim or the perpetrator of a miscommunication on a deep touchdown pass. Kenji Jackson continues to be the in the right place at the right time, but if there were Heismans for almost making plays, KJ would have to at least get an invite to the ceremony. He couldn't have been more than 6 inches from a pick on NU's last TD pass, and he was one NU bobble from another interception earlier in the game.

The most tragic of the defensive back field analyses though is that of one William Moore. What could have been if Willy Mo was healthy and properly used? We've beaten the horse to death, but why put your best ballhawking, centerfield safety and play him at the line of scrimmage all game long? Just because it allows to disguise his blitzing patterns, or are you that concerned with covering the slot? 2007 Willy Mo was a fantastic safety. Injuries and Matt Eberflus reduced 2008 Willy Mo to an above-average nickelback.

Hidden in the passion of victory but supported by The Boy in his recent BTBS post was the play of Jake Harry. Remember when punting was our biggest concern this offseason? The decision to rugby punt in the OSU game and throughout the season was, I thought, one of the better moves of the year, and it paid off handsomely in the Alamo Bowl. Then there's the story of Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned best kicker in NCAA history turned potential goat. What a storyline, and what a finish at a result.

You add it all together, and it made for a drama none of us would have or could have predicted five months ago. And when you think about the 2008 season, I'm not sure it would have been appropriate to end any other way.

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:00:07 -0000

We were out of sorts all game, Chase Daniel's never played worse, we were falling down in pass coverage, we couldn't run the ball, our "most accurate kicker of all-time" missed a game-ending FG, we were a step behind in our play-calling for much of the game...and we won our 10th game of the season. How in the hell did this happen??

Missouri (30)		NW'ern (23)
	% Close = 100.0%
63.2%	Field Position %	36.8%
70.3%	Leverage %	69.9%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	83
18.55	EqPts	22.09
41.9%	Success Rate	41.0%
0.25	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.670	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.676

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
4.45	EqPts	4.06
34.5%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.15	PPP	0.12
0.498	S&P	0.516
3.00	Line Yards/carry	3.03

	PASSING
14.10	EqPts	18.03
46.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.31	PPP	0.38
0.780	S&P	0.792
2.2%	Sack Rate	10.4%

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
48.1%	Success Rate	43.1%
0.25	PPP	0.28
0.726	S&P	0.708
3.1%	Sack Rate	3.2%
38.5%	Run Rate	46.6%

	PASSING DOWNS
27.3%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.26	PPP	0.24
0.536	S&P	0.600
0.0%	Sack Rate	23.5%
40.9%	Run Rate	32.0%

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
5.79	Points Lost	1.84
7.70	Points Given	3.33
13.49	Total T/O Pts	5.17
-8.32	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.32

0.678	Q1 S&P	0.868
0.721	Q2 S&P	0.603
0.729	Q3 S&P	0.991
0.607	Q4/Q5 S&P	0.377

0.509	1st Down S&P	0.678
0.670	2nd Down S&P	0.587
0.971	3rd/4th Down S&P	0.790

0.410	In own red zone	0.515
0.723	25 to 25	0.839
0.600	In opp. red zone	0.491

Thoughts after the jump...

Taking EqPts and Turnover Points into account, Northwestern should have won this game by about 12 points. But two things won this game for Missouri:

1) Total Missouri plays inside own red zone (which I define as inside the 25 instead of inside the 20): 4. Total Northwestern plays inside own red zone: 30. Alamo Bowl Co-MVP: Jake Harry.

2) Northwestern's Q4/Q5 S&P: 0.377. In their last 23 plays, NW'ern gained 40 yards. Just an outstanding performance by the defense down the stretch. And really, aside from two major breakdowns--Willy Mo stumbling around like a drunk on the first TD and either Carl Gettis getting roasted or Gettis and Justin Garrett not being on the same page on what coverage was being run (again) on NW'ern's Q3 go-ahead TD--the defense was good all game, believe it or not.
Look at that sack rate! For the first time all season, the blitz worked, and it ended up winning the game for Mizzou. I don't know if they attempted different things, or if the same things just worked this time, but kudos to Matt Eberflus for figuring something out after a rough year of play-calling.
Whereas NU's 11-for-21 performance on third downs kept them into the game to a degree (0.790 S&P on 3rd/4th downs), it was Mizzou's third-down performance (0.971) that made the difference. They faced longer third downs more often, but still converted a high rate. And in a game in which they seemingly had no hope for a big play, they had to work the dink-and-dunk routine themselves, and they did just that.
Kudos to NW'ern for shutting down Derrick Washington. I predicted that NW'ern wouldn't do much on the ground, and I was right...but I thought D-Wash would eventually start finding some holes, and I was very much incorrect. Overall, the rushing game was a wash for both teams.
Passing...eesh. Really, Mizzou's 46.7% success rate isn't too shabby (though it's well below their season average). The big thing here was Point Per Play--Mizzou had no hope of a big play in the passing game all night. Power to NW'ern to that, though Chase Daniel's suddenly erratic arm had plenty to do with that too. NW'ern seemed to have the deep routes covered for the most part, and the two times they didn't (on a bomb to Jared Perry and an intermediate sideline pass to Tommy Saunders), Daniel was well off-target.
The other part to Mizzou's lack of PPP was NW'ern's lockdown tackling. I can't think of more than just a couple of plays where Mizzou ended up getting decent YAC yardage.
From last week's BTBS Preview:
Check out the Passing Downs run rates. NU has a game-plan decision to make. Mizzou is piss poor defending Passing Downs, and opponents know it--they run the ball a minuscule 23.5% of the time in those situations. NU, however, plays things conservatively, running the ball 38.9% of the time. Do they stick to their conservative tendencies, or do they open things up knowing that Mizzou has more breakdowns than a lot of other defenses?
Final verdict: NW'ern ran the ball 32% of the time on Passing Downs--almost directly between the 23.5% and 38.9% averages.
Also from last week:
No offense in the country is better than Missouri on Non-Passing Downs. They are both efficient and explosive. If NU is going to win in San Antonio, they must figure out a way to leverage Mizzou into Passing Downs
Verdict: Mizzou's success rate was decent on NPD's, but the PPP was horrendous. Seriously...how did Mizzou win this game?

Let's take a look back at what I called the keys to the game...

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

Touchdowns, not field goals. NW'ern really needed to score TDs in the red zone to keep up with Mizzou (in theory). How'd they do? Three trips to the red zone (including the OT possession), 10 points. Fail.
Dink and dunk, dink and dunk. NW'ern was very successful on-and-off with the dink-dunk strategy. The only problem was, thanks to the leg of Jake Harry, NU had to drive the full length of the field more often than not. It's one thing to dink-and-dunk consistently for 50 yards. For 90 yards? Far too difficult. We'll say this was half-success, half-fail.
Confuse Chase Daniel. SUCCESS. Chase was every bit as discombobulated as he was against Oklahoma State...moreso, really.

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Bring it. Consider this one a giant fail. They were not sharp early, and they allowed NW'ern to completely dictate the tempo of the first half. When they started playing marginally better in the third quarter, they had absolutely no margin for error, and they let NU regain the lead. But...they won, so I guess it's not a giant fail. Just a fail.
Don't miss tackles. Carl Gettis whiffed on a tackle in Q2, and it turned into a huge gain, but otherwise Mizzou wasn't too bad here. Tyrell Sutton is very tough to bring down with just one guy--the dude's got the lowest center of gravity I've ever seen...he practically runs with one hand on the ground at all times. It usually took a couple of Tigers to bring him down, but they never let him bust a long one, other than the infamous "BOO HOORAY BOO" play in the first quarter (the 40-yard screen pass on third down that ended in a fumble...only to be called back due to offsides), but that one didn't count.
Stomp the Throat. Mizzou had the dagger in their hands three times. The first time, they were up 17-16 after Brock Christopher's interception, and they went three-and-out and managed only a field goal to go up 20-16 (a lead quickly wiped out by a NW'ern scoring drive). The second time, Jeff "Most Accurate Kicker in FBS History" Wolfert pushed the game-ending FG wide right. The third time, they made it count in OT. Better late than never, but it's best not to let underdogs hang around.

In the end, though, Mizzou's playmakers made plays when they had to--Maclin's punt return, 'Spoon's overall ridiculousness, Willy Mo making the big play on his last two plays in a Tiger uniform, Chase Coffman making a couple catches he had no business making, Jeff Wolfert nailing three FGs, Stryker Sulak coming up with a couple huge sacks--, and they won the game, even if they did miss the throat a couple times.

Summary

Illinois
SEMO
Nevada
Buffalo
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Texas
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
~~Oklahoma~~

It's been a fun BTBS season. I've taken these numbers to Football Outsiders, and they're starting to grow into something pretty cool. I hope more people understand them and use them to supplement what they see with their eyes. In the comments section below, feel free to let me know what suggestions you have to make this BTBS piece better and more useful (other than maybe a permanent link to the BTBS glossary somewhere...I keep meaning to do that...).

Anyway, despite the disappointment involved in a couple of unforeseen losses, this really was a fun season overall, and it doesn't take a BTBS post to figure that out. Chase Coffman's nunchuk thrusts...Jeremy Maclin starting and ending the season by becoming the Human Momentum Swing on neutral fields...Sean Weatherspoon starting and ending the season by refusing to let the Mizzou defense crumble...Chase Daniel completing 20 consecutive passes against Buffalo...absolutely destroying Nebraska in every way, shape and form, and in Lincoln to boot...clobbering and embarrassing Colorado...winning a second straight North title...in the end, not quite as many amazing moments as in 2007, but we've been getting spoiled. I hope to be analyzing a lot more wins than losses once more in 2009...

Poll

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

27 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

46 votes

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

3 votes

Why choose? All of the above!

22 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Big 12 'BTBS' (mostly) Final Rankings

Bill C. — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 17:00:08 -0000

Here's something fun: of the 10 Big 12 defenses that took the field last weekend, nine of them got smoked. Only that of Texas (and, technically, Iowa State and K-State, who didn't play) did not. So when you get to the defensive rankings and DON'T see that Mizzou fell in every category after Saturday's KU game, that's why.

Mizzou's defense wasn't alone--pretty much every D-lineman, LB, or DB in the Big 12 got roasted like TurBaconDucKen with a side of green bean casserole last weekend. That doesn't make more palatable the thought of Kerry Meier torching poor Justin Garrett yet again, but I'm just throwing it out there. Our defense was no better or worse than 90% of the league last week.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank	Team	Score	Last Wk's Rank	Last Wk's Score	Change
1	Texas	238.3	1	241.6	-2.7
2	Oklahoma	234.9	2	240.9	-6.0
3	Oklahoma State	218.2	5	217.7	+0.5
4	Texas Tech	217.0	3	226.4	-9.4
5	Missouri	216.1	4	218.1	-2.0
6	Nebraska	206.5	6	209.5	-3.0
7	Kansas	204.3	7	205.1	-0.8
8	Baylor	192.8	8	188.5	+4.3
9	Kansas State	178.3	9	179.9	-1.6
10	Colorado	174.5	10	172.0	+2.5
11	Texas A&M	169.5	11	169.9	-0.4
12	Iowa State	166.1	12	166.7	-0.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+. 200 = average. >200 = good. <200 = bad. From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

Biggest (Good) Mover: Baylor, for almost beating Tech.

Biggest (Bad) Mover: Texas Tech. The most interesting downward move, however, was OU dropping six points. We'll explore where that drop came from after the jump.

Category rankings and Big 12 Title Game projection after the jump.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

Texas Tech (121.5)
Missouri (115.6) (last week: 2)
Nebraska (107.6)
Oklahoma State (107.6)
Texas (107.4)
Oklahoma (103.9)
Kansas (102.9)
Iowa State (93.5)
Baylor (89.5)
Kansas State (85.8)
Texas A&M (84.5)
Colorado (76.6)

Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

Oklahoma (129.2)
Texas Tech (117.1)
Oklahoma State (116.6)
Missouri (115.1) (Last Week: 3)
Texas (113.7)
Nebraska (101.6)
Kansas (97.5)
Texas A&M (87.8)
Baylor (85.3)
Kansas State (84.7)
Iowa State (80.5)
Colorado (66.7)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

Texas Tech (119.4)
Oklahoma (115.7)
Missouri (115.4) (last week: 3)
Oklahoma State (111.8)
Texas (110.3)
Nebraska (104.8)
Kansas (100.4)
Baylor (87.5)
Iowa State (87.4)
Texas A&M (86.0)
Kansas State (85.2)
Colorado (71.9)

Offensive Rushing S&P+

Missouri (115.6) (Last week: 1)
Texas Tech (112.4)
Oklahoma State (108.9)
Texas (107.9)
Nebraska (105.0)
Oklahoma (104.6)
Kansas (103.9)
Baylor (96.6)
Iowa State (91.6)
Kansas State (90.1)
Texas A&M (83.2)
Colorado (78.1)

Offensive Passing S&P+

Oklahoma (128.9)
Oklahoma State (121.4)
Texas Tech (119.5)
Texas (113.7)
Missouri (112.7) (last week: 5)
Nebraska (105.0)
Kansas (97.5)
Texas A&M (86.2)
Iowa State (83.5)
Kansas State (81.4)
Baylor (78.7
Colorado (67.2)

Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

Oklahoma (128.1)
Texas Tech (120.9)
Oklahoma State (110.1)
Missouri (107.4) (Last Week: 5)
Texas (106.3)
Nebraska (103.7)
Kansas (102.3)
Baylor (91.7)
Kansas State (89.5)
Iowa State (86.5)
Texas A&M (78.6)
Colorado (71.6)

Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

Missouri (118.2) (last week: 2)
Oklahoma (112.4)
Texas Tech (111.1)
Oklahoma State (108.4)
Nebraska (104.4)
Texas (101.3)
Kansas (100.8)
Iowa State (91.5)
Baylor (90.1)
Kansas State (89.7)
Texas A&M (83.1)
Colorado (77.1)

Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

Texas Tech (148.0)
Texas (137.3)
Oklahoma State (123.4)
Oklahoma (122.3)
Nebraska (103.0)
Missouri (102.0) (last week: 6)
Kansas (98.4)
Texas A&M (97.5)
Baylor (81.4)
Kansas State (78.9)
Iowa State (78.8)
Colorado (64.6)

Redzone Offensive S&P+

Kansas (116.7)
Texas (114.9)
Oklahoma (113.7)
Missouri (109.6) (last week: 5)
Texas Tech (107.7)
Kansas State (98.6)
Nebraska (98.4)
Oklahoma State (97.1)
Baylor (86.2)
Texas A&M (84.1)
Colorado (83.8)
Iowa State (76.8)

These numbers are based on play-by-play statistics, and on a per-play basis, Missouri did quite well Saturday, particularly in Non-Passing Downs. Needless to say, NPD success is a ginormous factor for this coming game at Arrowhead--if Mizzou can move the ball on first downs, they'll have a fighting chance against the Sooners. If they don't, it will get embarrassing fast.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

Defensive Success Rates+

Oklahoma (116.1)
Texas (114.5)
Nebraska (111.1)
Kansas (105.2)
Colorado (103.7)
Missouri (103.1) (last week: 6)
Oklahoma State (98.5)
Kansas State (97.8)
Baylor (97.8)
Texas Tech (93.2)
Texas A&M (88.0)
Iowa State (83.7)

Defensive Points Per Play+

Texas (125.9)
Baylor (112.0)
Oklahoma (111.5)
Oklahoma State (109.5)
Texas Tech (109.0)
Missouri (109.3) (last week: 6)
Colorado (105.1)
Kansas (100.2)
Nebraska (92.1)
Kansas State (87.9)
Texas A&M (85.2)
Iowa State (74.4)

Defensive S&P+

Texas (119.6)
Oklahoma (113.9)
Missouri (105.6) (last week: 3)
Colorado (104.3)
Baylor (104.0)
Oklahoma State (103.4)
Kansas (102.8)
Nebraska (101.3)
Texas Tech (100.1)
Kansas State (92.9)
Texas A&M (86.7)
Iowa State (79.1)

Defensive Rushing S&P+

Texas (121.8)
Missouri (115.7) (last week: 3)
Oklahoma (108.6)
Baylor (108.2)
Oklahoma State (106.1)
Kansas (105.4)
Colorado (104.5)
Nebraska (99.7)
Texas Tech (93.9)
Kansas State (89.5)
Iowa State (88.1)
Texas A&M (84.5)

Defensive Passing S&P+

Texas (121.1)
Oklahoma (118.6)
Texas Tech (106.6)
Oklahoma State (103.1)
Colorado (102.6)
Kansas (102.1)
Nebraska (100.9)
Missouri (99.4) (last week: 8)
Baylor (99.4)
Kansas State (94.8)
Texas A&M (88.6)
Iowa State (72.7)

Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

Texas (132.0)
Missouri (108.7) (last week: 3)
Oklahoma State (108.1)
Oklahoma (106.8)
Colorado (102.9)
Nebraska (102.8)
Kansas (102.0)
Baylor (101.0)
Texas Tech (96.1)
Texas A&M (90.8)
Kansas State (88.8)
Iowa State (79.6)

Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

Texas (120.0)
Missouri (109.0) (last week: 3)
Baylor (106.2)
Oklahoma (106.0)
Nebraska (104.5)
Kansas (103.1)
Oklahoma State (103.0)
Colorado (101.0)
Texas Tech (92.9)
Texas A&M (91.9)
Kansas State (90.8)
Iowa State (85.3)

Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

Texas Tech (143.4)
Oklahoma (137.7)
Colorado (115.7)
Texas (114.5)
Oklahoma State (103.4)
Kansas (99.8)
Kansas State (98.5)
Baylor (97.5)
Missouri (95.7) (last week: 9)
Nebraska (92.5)
Texas A&M (77.1)
Iowa State (64.4)

Redzone Defensive S&P+

Texas (128.0)
Baylor (108.8)
Colorado (108.8)
Texas Tech (108.6)
Missouri (107.7) (Last Week: 3)
Oklahoma (105.2)
Nebraska (101.8)
Oklahoma State (101.2)
Kansas (95.9)
Kansas State (91.0)
Texas A&M (90.4)
Iowa State (80.1)

We'll talk about this more tomorrow when we look at MU-KU in detail, but I'm assuming I know the first question you'll ask if you made it this far is the same question I addressed at the start: How in the hell did Mizzou actually go UP in the rankings?

At least, that's the first question I asked.

Here's the three-part answer: a) because, from start to finish, Mizzou's defense only fell slightly below what was expected (unfortunately, those shortcomings were in Q4 and on Passing Downs); b) a bunch of offenses that Mizzou shut down (relatively speaking)--Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma State--had humongous days on Saturday, upping their averages and giving Mizzou more leeway; and c) because just about everybody's defense sucked last week. Mizzou's Close-Game Defensive S&P+ actually fell slightly (from 109.1 to 108.7), but everybody else's (except Texas') fell more, bumping Mizzou up to #2 in that category. Strange but true. Thanksgiving was a weekend for offense, and the MU-KU game was no different.

Just thought I'd throw that out there for the "What's it going to take to get Matt Eberflus off of this staff???" crowd.

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

Texas 39, Texas A&M 15
Nebraska 34, Colorado 17
Texas Tech 42, Baylor 19
Oklahoma State 31, Oklahoma 30
Missouri 34, Kansas 25

The quest for a perfect season fell a week short. As I mentioned last week, I thought OU would handle OSU, and I really thought the OSU > OU pick would end up wrong. Of course, I thought the MU > KU pick would be right on the money. So after a 19-0 start, the projections have to settle for a 22-2 finish...with one game remaining, of course.

And naturally, I hope the projections end up 22-3.

PREDICTIONS

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma 33, Missouri 30

Because OU's defense underachieved almost as much as Missouri's did, this projection remained rather close. As we know by now, scoring margins aren't the strength of this projection system (something I'll work on in the offseason), so all that's important here is that OU wins.

Bowls*

BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs Ohio State
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (11-1) vs Ole Miss
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State (9-3) vs Oregon
Gator Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)** vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Missouri (9-4) vs Northwestern
Insight Bowl: Kansas (7-5) vs Minnesota
Independence Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies
Texas Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies

* As always, to determine the matchups, I looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had. It's very much shaping up to be Big 12 vs SEC in the championship game.

** I have to figure the Gator almost certainly takes the Huskers here, especially with only a half-game now separating Mizzou and Nebraska (sigh). A bad week for Mizzou--they fell from Fiesta in last week's projections to Alamo in this week's. But hey...playing Northwestern will at least mean Mizzou will have a very good chance of still reaching the 10-win plateau.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:00:05 -0000

So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step. I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing. Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week. Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs. You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently? If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

Missouri		Okie State
	% Close = 100.0%
53.8%	Field Position % *	46.2%
81.4%	Leverage % **	65.3%
	TOTAL
70	Plays	72
28.09	EqPts	26.73
55.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.37
0.958	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.788

	RUSHING
7.46	EqPts	13.24
56.3%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.47	PPP	0.32
1.029	S&P	0.672
2.83	Line Yards/carry	2.28

	PASSING
20.63	EqPts	13.48
57.7%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.40	PPP	0.45
0.974	S&P	0.949

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.2%	Success Rate	44.7%
0.45	PPP	0.39
1.077	S&P	0.834

	PASSING DOWNS
23.1%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.21	PPP	0.34
0.438	S&P	0.701

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	3
8.85	Points Lost	8.28
6.09	Points Given	5.78
14.94	Total T/O Pts	14.06
-0.88	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.88

So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
They split in turnover margin...
They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
They won the field-position battle...
They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
And they lost. Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge. Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin). OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers). Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled. They were fast, and they didn't miss. That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

Let's go into a little more detail...

S&P by Quarter

Q1
Missouri: 53.8% / 0.36 PPP / 0.894 S&P
Oklahoma State: 59.1% / 0.37 PPP / 0.956 S&P

Q2
Missouri: 45.0% / 0.39 PPP / 0.843 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.10 PPP / 0.428 S&P

Q3
Missouri: 65.0% / 0.43 PPP / 1.082 S&P
Oklahoma State: 35.7% / 0.85 PPP / 1.203 S&P

Q4
Missouri: 58.8% / 0.41 PPP / 0.998 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.29 PPP / 0.619 S&P

You see a nice spike in Mizzou's numbers in the second half, once they basically gave up on the run and focus on quick short passing as their new "running game". Meanwhile, OSU did a good job of gameplanning (success in Q1 and Q3), while the Mizzou defense made very good adjustments (success in Q2 and Q4).

S&P by Down

1st Down
Missouri: 60.5% / 0.41 PPP / 1.014 S&P
Oklahoma State: 36.4% / 0.25 PPP / 0.618 S&P

2nd Down
Missouri: 60.9% / 0.50 PPP / 1.111 S&P
Oklahoma State: 52.0% / 0.51 PPP / 1.034 S&P

3rd Down
Missouri: 22.2% / 0.11 PPP / 0.332 S&P
Oklahoma State: 38.5% / 0.40 PPP / 0.780 S&P

Just a staggering job by OSU of preventing Mizzou from having success where they're used to it the most--3rd downs (and, somewhat consequently, Passing Downs). Mizzou was as consistent as always on 1st and 2nd downs, but the clutch plays belonged to OSU. Yet another reason why I wish we could play this team again...like, right now.

Projections vs Performance

Here, we'll look at actual performance compared to what was projected in last week's BTBS preview.

Mizzou Rushing

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.6 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 19.0
Actual Performance: 7.5

Chase Daniel: 2.97 EqPts, 100.0% success rate, 1.595 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.49 EqPts, 25.0% success rate, 0.561 S&P
Jimmy Jackson: 1.38 EqPts on 1 carry
Jeremy Maclin: 0.62 EqPts on 2 carries

Though it was on Passing Downs where Mizzou had its biggest failures, chances are that failure in the running game caused a lot of those Passing Downs, especially in the first half. Chase Daniel did well at eating away chunks of yards when given the opportunity, and you could make the case that he should have run the ball a bit more, but seeing how dead his arms and legs seemed to be in the 4th quarter already, he probably took enough hits as is. But the game hinged at least somewhat in OSU's ability to shoot the gaps at just the right times and take away Derrick Washington's effectiveness.

Mizzou Passing

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 23.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 28.0
Actual Performance: 20.6

Jeremy Maclin: 5.16 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.645 S&P
Chase Coffman: 4.91 EqPts, 63.6% success rate, 1.083 S&P
Tommy Saunders: 3.44 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.689 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.78 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 1.111 S&P
Danario Alexander: 2.48 EqPts on 2 catches
Earl Goldsmith: 1.32 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.441 S&P
Jared Perry: 0.53 EqPts on 2 catches
Andrew Jones: 0.49 EqPts on 1 catch

Once again, both the projections and my own projections were too optimistic about Mizzou's offensive performance. Credit OSU's gameplan for a lot of that.

OSU Rushing

Avg Projected OSU Rushing Output: 13.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 14.0
Actual Performance: 13.2

The projections were actually a smidge optimistic about OSU's offensive performance too. Just imagine how good these numbers would look for Mizzou without Hunter's one long TD run. If if's and but's were candy and nuts...

OSU Passing

Avg Projected OSU Passing Output: 17.7
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 15.0
Actual Performance: 13.5

Credit where it's due: Mizzou's pass defense came to play. They were hitting hard, and they were two plays away from a wonderful performance. Of course, both of those plays went for TDs--one an obvious miscommunication on the play-action TD; the other, a confusing play where there ended up being two OSU players (Bryant & Davis) and one MU player (Ricks) in the same part of the endzone. Unfortunately, Davis made the catch. Regardless, Mizzou's pass defense played better than the numbers suggested they would, and this further reinforces the fact that it wasn't the Mizzou defense that cost them this game.

Mizzou Defense

Because of the solid defensive play, I thought I'd show you the breakdown for "successful" defensive tackles...

Sean Weatherspoon: 4.5 successful tackles (69.2% success rate)
Justin Garrett: 3.5 (46.7%)
William Moore: 3.0 (42.9%)
Jaron Baston: 2.5 (100.0%)
Tommy Chavis: 2.5 (100.0%)
Brock Christopher: 2.5 (71.4%)
Carl Gettis: 2.5 (55.6%)

Three members of the secondary with a success rate above 40% is just weird. But this does further support that our secondary a) hits hard and b) supports the run defense wonderfully.

Summary

For regular football fans, this game was a treat. Big plays were made on both sides of the ball. All the big-name offensive players (Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, Robinson, Hunter, Bryant) made plays at one point or another; all of Mizzou's defensive playmakers made some big hits and stops; OSU had guys like Jeremiah Price and Orie Lemon making names for themselves. It was a fun game...unfortunately, the result left something to be desired.

If nothing else, the BTBS stats point to what we basically already knew: Mizzou played well...except for when it didn't. (Brilliant analysis, I know.) The Mizzou Offense clicked along as always on Non-Passing Downs...but for really only the second time in the last 20 games, they were horrific on Passing Downs. The Mizzou receivers played well...except for the dropped passes (which don't really work themselves into BTBS numbers). The Mizzou defense played great...aside from three specific plays.

All these things point squarely to the "It just wasn't our day" truism, but that doesn't make the loss any easier to accept. Mizzou fans should take comfort in the fact that the Tigers still match up relatively well against Texas, and they're still clearly (to my eyes) a Top 10 team. The problem is...5-1 isn't nearly as promising as 6-0, and the Tigers quite obviously need to beat Texas to keep their national title hopes (and possibly Chase Daniel's Heisman hopes) alive.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

1 votes

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

3 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

5 votes

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

3 votes

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

10 votes

No MVP--we lost!

66 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:00:05 -0000

I forgot today was Wednesday (it's been that kind of week), but ZouDave came through with Roundtable questions. Hoooorraaaaaay, ZouDave!

1 - On a scale of 1-14, with 1 being "not even a little" and 14 being "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy", how bad does Mediacom's service suck in the Columbia area?

2 - Which was it, a bad game from Mizzou or a good game from Buffalo?

3 - Now that your team's non-conference schedule is complete (see what I did there, Doug?), what are you most happy about? What are you most concerned with?

4 - It's a bye week. What will you be doing on Saturday in place of watching your favorite team?

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado at Florida State
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State
Virginia Tech at Nebraska
TCU at Oklahoma
Troy at Oklahoma State
Army at Texas A&M

The Beef: 1 - As an out-of-towner, I just do not know. I had Mediacom for a few years back in 2000-2003, and honestly, it was never terrible. Back then I would give it an 11 maybe.

2 - I think Buffalo is a decent team and a program slowly building themselves up (as long as they can find someone as good as Gill when he leaves)…and I think Mizzou played a decent game. We have all seen the stats of what Mizzou did. Inopportune fumbles, a once-a-decade play and a roughing the kicker penalty, and POOF!!...the game goes from about 59-10 maybe to 42-21.

3 - I am not overly concerned about a lot…just curious (I suppose) to see what sort of defensive scheme we settle into with (hopefully) a healthy V. Alexander and Willy Mo.

4 - I MIGHT actually have to work on Saturday morning, which kinda messes up my plan of laundry and drinking…I am holding out hope I don’t need to come in.

5 - Colorado at Florida State – Colorado…seems strange but I don’t think FSU is all that good…nor do I think CU has arrived but I think their offense is improved.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State – kSU by…eh…a couple of TD’s

Virginia Tech at Nebraska – NU had better win this game

TCU at Oklahoma – OU, but it might be close in the first half since I like what TCU does defensively

Troy at Oklahoma State – Okie State runs for at least 350 yards

Army at Texas A&M – Can I pick another CFL-style 1-0?

The Boy: 1 - Eleventy Billion. But at least I'm paying half as much for it as I used to. Great things happen when you threaten to leave.

2 - Yes.

Honestly, as hard as I try, I just can't get too worked up about the Buffalo game. It was a "stuff happens" game, and we still won by 3 TD's. But we do need to give credit to Turner Gill and his team--they had a solid gameplan, they made the most out of little offensive firepower, and they tackled really, really, really well.

3 - I'm happy that we get a bye week here (and Nebraska doesn't), and I'm happy that the team has something to be annoyed about (a lackluster performance against UB) during the break.

4 - I wish I could say I'll be participating in THE FIRST ANNUAL ROCK M NATION BYE WEEK OPEN THREAD!!!!1!!!!!, but instead I'll be picking up the in-laws from the KC airport. I'd complain about it, but I'm getting free Bryants out of the deal.

5 - CU/FSU: I'm not sure CU's ready to win this game yet. FSU's offense is HORRIBLE, but their defense is fast enough to give CU problems. CU got 14 points out of their scripted plays against WV, then didn't score again till overtime. This has 12-9 (4 FG's to 3) written all over it, and while I hope CU wins to help the Big 12 out, I'm going with the home (approximately) team.

ULL/KSU: One more reason to hate Ron Prince: he's the king of stupid Holtzian coachspeak. I caught bits of his weekly press conference on ESPNU this morning, and to hear him talk, you'd think ULL was the second coming of Barry Switzer's Sooner teams with their ability to run the ball. KSU wins despite their coach, 48-17.

VT/NU: I've been talking down VT for the last month, and while they certainly benefitted last Saturday by UNC's QB (TJ Yates) getting hurt when UNC was up comfortably, the fact is VT is in position to win their division again despite a massive rebuilding situation there. That said, I think highly enough of NU to think that they can overcome a really well-coached VT team. The Sea of Red even got to Chase Daniel the first time he experienced it, and it'll get to Tyrod Taylor too. NU wins, 27-17.

TCU/OU: TCU's got their typical "defense first, defense second" team, but...OU's a machine. OU wins 44-10.

Troy/OSU: Troy's competitive, but OSU will beat them by more than tOSU beat them last week. We'll say 38-14 Pokes.

Army/ATM: Good god I hope ATM wins this game...just for the sake of the Big 12. But being that their offense is more stagnant than (insert something really stagnant here), it won't be tremendously easy. We'll say ATM wins 24-6.

Doug: Oh, great... as if this thread wasn't long enough for G-Mail already.

1 - Can't say I've ever had to deal with Mediacom before... but Jenna Haze on Ecstasy? That's way more than 14.

2 - Like Seth says... The University AT Buffalo appears to be a program on the rise and Turner Gill may have actually been a good hire in the long run for Nebraska. However, for this game, I think it showed some of the weaknesses facing the Missouri defense and the fact you can't always come out in the first half and roll everybody.

3 - I'm most happy about Todd Reesing, he's still a stud and still doing nice things running the offense. The interception against South Florida was a bad play call given the situation they were in, so I can't put blame on him for that. I'm worried about the running game and the defense from time to time. There's not one running back that can clear through a defender like Brandon McAnderson could last year, and that's what's ultimately hurting them the most. The defense is still spotty at times, so they need to focus and game plan during the bye week to solve those problems.

4 - I have the Jenna Haze box set... who's coming over?

5 - Colorado... man Florida State is awful.

Kansas State... hey, isn't this the old Fresno State game?

Neb...VaT...Neb...VaT... I can't pick one... whoever it is will be by a field goal or less.

Oklahoma... is TCU trying to get Tomlinson's eligibility re-instated for this game?

Oklahoma State... yeah, this one may set some offensive records.

Army... when in doubt, pick the original military academy.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: 1. The only thing I can contribute is that the NBC affiliate in Austin is pulling it's programming on Time Warner Cable over a fee dispute and both sides are blaming each other and the end result is we may not get the Office in which case I will go on a rampage and burn this whole damn town down I swear to Jesus on a Pogostick I will.

2. Bad game for Mizzou. I'm more vexed than most. The score ended up fine, but turnovers, penalties, and....gasp... punting? These are not the makings of a confidence game. I was unhappy. Yes, I'd rather it be this game than next, and yes, everyone has them, but it's not going to keep me from grumbling. The team just needs to make sure it gets focused before Nebraska because Lincoln won't be a cakewalk like the last two.

3. I haven't looked at numbers, but it feels like we're committing more penalties, and that was a huge boon to us last year, the lack of them. I'm most happy with the fact that our offense honestly looks like it can compensate for almost any opponent's offense. But we need to figure out how much of our defense is "bend don't break" and how much is "attack" and get both of them working efficiently.

4. I'll either be at the Austin City Limits Festival or on the game thread, screaming about Lou Holtz.

5. All the big 12 teams win and cover and win pretty easily... except for Nebraska. Because they're goat f--kers.

The Boy: For the record, we had 2 penalties and 1 punt. Methinks the standards around here may be a little high. :-)

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: I know, I know, and I left at half to go to the store for the sick wife.

But still. Even the announcers commented that the Missouri guys were flat, just going through the motions. It's not like I can blame them. But seriously, the Nebraska game is one of the absolutely most important things that will happen for me personally this season. I'm okay with a loss to Texas on the road, and that one we could even survive and still make a BCS bowl-- though I think we'll win -- but I seriously want to put 70 on Nebraska in Lincoln.

The Beef: Well…I will be honest…I think the announcers were wrong as well.

The Boy: We had 2 penalties, 1 punt, put up 600 yards and gave up less than 300. The only problem with crispness was that our hands weren't crisp enough to hold onto the ball. Trust me, I'm all about worrying about Nebraska--with the 8pm kickoff, I'll be a complete freaking (well-lubricated) mess by the time the game starts--but the Buffalo game makes me fear NU no more than I did (or didn't) before.

Doug: I really didn't need to hear how you get ready for a game.

Michael Atchison: 1 - I don’t even know what we’re talking about with regard to Mediacom’s service in Columbia (I’m a Time Warner customer in Kansas City), so on the scale of 1 – 14, I’ll give it a Q.

2 - It was a bad game (relatively) from Mizzou. When Coffman, Maclin and Perry all turn it over, and when their best drive is sustained by Mizzou’s penalties, you know it’s about Mizzou’s lapses. Luckily, everything I’ve seen from this team tells me it was an aberration. I’m glad they got it out of their system.

3 - I’m most happy about coming out of it 4-0 with most of the team in good health. I’m most concerned about the play of our corners, especially Castine Bridges, who seems to spend a lot of time not knowing where the ball is.

4 - I’ll be at Disney World!

5 - CU shocks FSU by 6.

K-State by 9.

Hokies beat the Corn by 8.

Oklahoma by 31.

Okie State by 22.

A&M by ½ point.

The Boy: I just realized I didn't answer the "most concerned" part. The biggest concern has got to be the fact that we're still giving up a big play a game in the passing game. Granted, that will improve with the return of William Moore, and Castine Bridges began to play better the other day, we still don't have a 100% reliable option as the CB opposite Carl Gettis, and Delstin Garward continues to be decent but shaky at SS.

Oh, and I don't think we can use "shock" to describe CU potentially beating FSU--FSU losing just isn't shocking anymore.

ZouDave:

ZouDave: 1 - Having only lived in Columbia for a single year of my life, and that was in 1994-1995, I obviously don't know for sure. But this question serves 2 purposes well. 1) it gets Jenna Haze mentioned AGAIN, proving we are the sports authorities on Jenna Haze. 2) it's a nod to The Boy and his problems. Little did I know his problem was actually him being forgetful, not him having service issues.

2 - I unfortunately didn't get to see the game because I had to go to a wedding in Braymer, MO (home of Colin Brown). I listened to the entire first half, and spent a lot of it screaming at the radio, and then followed the 2nd half through text messages from Gabe DeArmond. It was great, because the wedding I was at was of a Mizzou alum and probably 1/3 of the guests were either Mizzou alums or Mizzou fans. Everyone kept coming to me for updates, which was fun. It sounds to me, though, that this was neither a good game for Buffalo nor a bad game for Mizzou. Buffalo was the recipient of a few big mistakes from our team, but we also dominated them on offense and kept their offense from doing what they wanted to do. I think it was just another game for Mizzou, and we happened to turn it over 3x more than we had all season.

3 - I am most happy about Derrick Washington. I was hoping he would be this good, but I didn't think it would actually happen. Having a running game like this with our passing attack is on the verge of unfair. I'm most concerned with our lack of consistent pass rush from the front 4. That seemed to be a MAJOR strength last year with all of our defensive linemen getting multiple sacks and pressures on the season. So far, we seem to only bring consistent pressure if we commit a safety and linebacker to a blitz, which leaves our secondary a bit exposed. I think, as Beef said, a healthy Van Alexander and Willy Mo will help that a lot.

4 - I'm going to be playing Rock Band 2 with a few friends for much of the day, but we're going to pick out a couple of games to watch on TV as the day goes along.

5 - Colorado at Florida State - I'm going to take FSU, simply because they're at home. I think these teams are evenly matched.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State - KSU better win this by 30, but I bet they only win by about 17.

Virginia Tech at Nebraska - Nebraska is going to win this, maybe even with relative ease, and force their way into the Top 25 in time for us to ruin their season once again.

TCU at Oklahoma - Love the Horned Frogs, but this will NOT be a repeat of 2005. OU by 28.

Troy at Oklahoma State - OSU out for revenge. Cowboys by 30.

Army at Texas A&M - ugly, ugly game. I'll pick A&M, but by less than 7.

Is anybody making the trip to Lincoln? I wish I could, but money is tight.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: Sadly, no. I had to save up... FOR MY TRIP TO KC FOR THE BORDER WAR! BOOYAH!

ZouDave: You have chosen...

...wisely.

The Beef: Nope…been there once…was enough for me…the only road game right now I am looking at is Iowa State…but I should be in KC for the game after the kU game

ZouDave: yeah one of the reasons money is tight is because I'm pretty well invested in going not only to the ku game at Arrowhead, but also the Big XII Championship game. Yes, I'm being that presumptuous.

I have my doubts I'll be able to make it to the Bowl Game this year, with the catch being that if by some MIRACLE the Tigers appear in the Rose Bowl then dad and I will be going to that. Since my sister lives in Thousand Oaks, CA, that's close enough that it's an easy drive and we wouldn't have to pay for a hotel. Airfare and ticket isn't a bad trip.

The Beef: The wife and I are hoping to make a bowl trip, but as she is now a teacher, time off for her will be tough since many of the games we might likely end up in are now on weekdays and outside of the normal school vacation. But…we shall see I suppose

Michael Atchison: Made the Lincoln trip in 2006, but I’m skipping this time. This coming weekend marks my fifth straight on the road. I’m looking forward to spending a Saturday at home, watching on the tube.

ZouDave: In a not remotely related story...

rptgwb: Oh my Lord, I just opened this email in class and very nearly had to explain why I was doubling over laughing when I saw the phrase "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy."

1. It's close to a 14. If the question is how much more could Mediacom suck? To pull an idea from This is Spinal Tap: "The answer would be, none, none more suck."

2 - How about both? Great gameplan by Buffalo, shoddy ball protection by Mizzou.

3. I'm most happy that Mizzou stayed at 4-0 without any major injuries (nagging injury to Willy Mo and the injury to Kurtis Gregory aside). I am a tad concerned about the pass defense, but I'm certainly not losing sleep over it at this point.

4. In addition to the Bye Week Open Thread, I'll be out covering Mizzou volleyball against SIU-Edwardsville.

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado over Florida State by 7
Kansas State over Louisiana-Lafayette by 17
Nebraska over Va Tech by 4
Oklahoma over TCU by 28
Oklahoma State over Troy by 14
Texas A&M over Army by 10

ZouDave: So you haven't gotten to see a single game, even on TV, yet Atch? Yikes. I would have died by now.

The Boy: I assume he's counting the three home games (and maybe the Illinois game, if he went) as "weekends on the road".

Michael Atchison: I’ve seen some games at night, but not many, and I don’t think I’ve seen one in its entirety. And I won’t get to see any this weekend as I stroll around the Magic Kingdom. But I will watch many, many games on October 4.

ZouDave: Oh, that makes a helluva lot more sense.

Disregard my incompetence.

You've planned your trip well, that's good.

Doug plans his trip to Disney World for the first week of June in 2009. Let's see how long it takes someone to get that one.

Michael Atchison: Yes, indeed, I’ve been to every game thus far, none of which have been where I live.

Doug: I assume you already have that date circled on your calendar.

Dave, are you already cutting up your jeans for hot-jorts?

ZouDave: assless chaps, baby...nothing butt the best!

Doug: That's what HE said.

ZouDave: Let's see if we can "re-rail" this thing.

I was talking to a couple of friends earlier this week about projected stats. Just for fun, here's Mizzou:

Chase Daniel - 303/399, 4236 passing yards, 36 passing TD, 3 INT, 42 attempts, 222 rushing yards

Derrick Washington - 159 attempts, 1082 rushing yards, 24 Rushing TD, 21 catches, 238 receiving yards, 3 Receiving TD

Chase Coffman - 84 catches, 1138 yards, 9 TD

Jeremy Maclin - 78 catches, 1174 yards, 12 TD

Tommy Saunders - 57 catches, 924 yards, 6 TD

Jared Perry - 48 catches, 810 yards, 6 TD

That's early 90's Houston Oilers disgusting right there. We'd have a very hard time reproducing that on NCAA 09 on the 360. Obviously, this doesn't take into account Danario Alexander's addition to the lineup, but just assume even if Saunders and Perry each drop by 1/3 and give those numbers to Danario it's still just a ridiculous offense. And these numbers don't include a likely Big XII Championship Game or Bowl Game!

(Two hours later...)

The Boy: Yeah, that re-railed nothing.

ZouDave: My back hurts from carrying your ass all day, I can't do everything!

Doug: That's what...never mind.

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:30:05 -0000

Well, I still don't feel like we have enough of a sample size to use 2008 numbers here yet, so once again we'll use 2007 numbers and rely on some manual adjustments on my part...

Mizzou-Buffalo Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.73
Projection #1: 18.77
2007 Buffalo Rushing Defense EqPts+: 72.84
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 22.25

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 21.51

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Derrick Washington is the man. I was unimpressed with the run-blocking against Nevada, but I'll give them a pass. Struggle with success rates against Buffalo, and we've got trouble.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.63
Projection #1: 18.23
2007 Buffalo Passing Defense EqPts+: 75.78
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 24.28

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 21.26

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0 - It's official: Mizzou's passing game is better in 2008.

Buffalo Rushing

2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts+: 74.43
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 6.17
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Buffalo Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.38
Projection #2: 7.69

Projected Buffalo Rushing Output: 6.93

Adjusted for 2008: 6.0 - They held Nevada below their average, and Buffalo doesn't have Colin Kaepernick and his play-fakes.

Buffalo Passing

2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts+: 90.69
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 11.01
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Buffalo Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.26
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Buffalo Passing Output: 9.97

Adjusted for 2008: 11.0 - I'm willing to accept that the Willy-to-Roosevelt combo is worth a few points.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 48, Buffalo 17

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 51, Buffalo 14

Before we dive into individual stats, I thought it might be interesting to delve into the one game Buffalo's played so far that might actually tell us something...their matchup against Pitt from a couple weeks ago, a game Pitt won, 27-16.

Buffalo		Pittsburgh
	% Close = 100.0%
	TOTAL
65	Plays	64
19.97	EqPts	23.73
53.8%	Success Rate	51.6%
0.31	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.37
0.846	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.886

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
6.57	EqPts	11.77
65.5%	Success Rate	51.7%
0.23	PPP	0.41
0.882	S&P	0.923

	PASSING
13.41	EqPts	11.96
44.4%	Success Rate	51.4%
0.37	PPP	0.34
0.817	S&P	0.856

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
56.5%	Success Rate	60.9%
0.33	PPP	0.40
0.894	S&P	1.012

	PASSING DOWNS
47.4%	Success Rate	27.8%
0.26	PPP	0.29
0.729	S&P	0.567

	TURNOVERS
1	Number	1
1.58	Points Lost	1.79
1.51	Points Given	0.00*
3.09	Total T/O Pts	1.79
-1.39	Turnover Pts Margin	+1.39

* It was the last play of the half, so the ending field position doesn't matter unless it was a TD...and it wasn't.

So what does this tell us? Well...Pitt's offensive numbers don't tell us much because, well, Pitt's offense obviously isn't in the same league as Mizzou's. One thing to note, though, is that the Panther Offense had its way with Buffalo on Non-Passing Downs. It was hard for Buffalo to leverage Pitt into passing situations, but the biggest problem for defenses against Mizzou is that Mizzou's as good in passing situations as most teams are in non-passing situations. Mizzou's 0.929 S&P on Passing Downs is pretty ridiculous (as is their 1.201 S&P in Non-Passing Downs).

In other words, Buffalo's performance against Pitt doesn't give me any reason to think Mizzou will be held in check in any way, shape or form.

Defensively, though, Pitt's pretty comparable to Mizzou--actually, they may be a smidge better depending on which Mizzou defense shows up at any given time. Buffalo's performance against Pitt was interesting. The vaunted (relatively-speaking) Buffalo passing game was fine, but not great. Drew Willy's official line was 21-for-34 with 223 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. I'll be impressed if he matches that on Saturday, but he could at least come close. Meanwhile, Buffalo was very efficient running the ball (a 65.5% success rate is quite high), but completely devoid of any big-play potential. James Starks and Brandon Thermilus combined for a nice 117 yards on 24 carries, but the name of the game is easy points, especially against Mizzou, and UB's RBs provided none.

Special Teams

I'll say this as succinctly as possible: Buffalo has an entirely nondescript special teams unit. That's better than having a bad special teams unit, but...yeah, there's not much here. Their punter only averages 39.0 yards per punt, but they haven't allowed much of any returns so far (which is a nice thing against Mizzou). They're 2-for-3 on FGs and have had decent-not-great returns in limited opportunities. Naaman Roosevelt is a potential weapon in the return game, but he hasn't broken loose this year yet.

Oh yeah, and Mizzou has the best special teams unit I can ever remember Mizzou having. This is worth another 3 points in Mizzou's favor.

Key Players for Buffalo

QB Drew Willy

This is the closest thing to an early pro tryout Drew Willy's going to get. You have to figure there will be some scout in attendance on Saturday, and if Willy can produce against what is at least an above-average defense at this point (though a defense that will likely be missing William Moore), he'll begin to get on pro teams' radar screens a bit. His line for 2008 (60-for-92, 792 yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs) is quite impressive.

WR Naaman Roosevelt

Though he's now known as "that guy who caught the mini-Hail Mary", Roosevelt is also by far Buffalo's biggest weapon, and as I said early, easy points is the name of the game here. So far in 2008, Roosevelt has 18 catches for 351 yards and 3 TDs. This is no fluke either--he had 1500+ yards and 9 TDs in 2007. I can't figure he'll have a great game lined up opposite Carl Gettis, but if Buffalo has a prayer of winning, it's going to be because of Roosevelt.

DEs Andrae Smith and Mike Thompson

The blueprint for beating Mizzou is simple, really: have fantastic DEs, get in Chase Daniel's face, confuse him by dropping different people into coverage every play, hope to get lucky on a couple Curtis Lofton-style turnovers...et voila! Victory is yours. To follow that blueprint, Smith and Thompson (who have combined for 4.5 TFL's, 2 sacks and 5 QB hurries) will have to play better than they ever have in their lives. Good luck.

LB Justin Winters

Arguably the Bulls' best defender so far this season, the sophomore from Greenbelt, MD (which has a lovely mall and Honduran food restaurant!), has 28 tackles, a sack, and an INT in three games this year. He is the most likely guy on the team to produce the Curtis Lofton-style turnovers, but...no. It's not going to happen.

Fun note: in the most recent UB depth chart (pdf!), Winters is listed at 6'11, 202. I'm going to assume that's a misprint...though how awesome would that be??? Okay yeah, it's a misprint.

Okay, another fun note while we're at it: Buffalo currently has starters from New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Ohio, New Jersey, and...Australia. Good times.

Key Players for Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Buffalo touts its rushing defense, and the fact that they're giving up less than 100 yards a game on the ground is certainly impressive. But they've only faced one decent rushing team--Pittsburgh--and as I said in the preseason, I don't think as highly of LeSean McCoy as others do. Well, McCoy had 93 yards on 20 carries against Buffalo. I expect Washington put up that much in 12-15 carries, to be quite honest. But if the run-blocking is still suspect, and Buffalo can remove Washington from the equation...well...it still probably won't matter, but it could.

LB Van Alexander

Probably Buffalo's most impressive stat so far has been its 3rd-down conversion rate (55%). They get themselves into manageable third downs, and then Drew Willy finds somebody to move the chains. Chances are, it will be up to the Mizzou LBs to put a stop to any hope of a good rushing day for UB and leverage Buffalo into passing downs. I was going to say Sean Weatherspoon is the key here, but that's too obvious--so I'll say it's Van Alexander, who will likely see a lot of playing time and will probably be going at double-speed trying to make plays.

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

As is the case every week, they're the key simply because they haven't turned the corner in pass coverage yet. They were certainly decent on Saturday, but there was still a ridiculous breakdown on the last play of the first half, so all is not entirely well. Plus, with William Moore (probably) out, these two and Hardy Ricks will see even more PT than normal. Assuming the Mizzou offense is clicking, then the defense can have a breakdown or two and be fine, but I'd like to be confident in the secondary heading into conference play, and I'd like for Delstin Garward to show me something.

QB Blaine Gabbert

Why? Because if things go according to plan on Saturday (knock on wood), this could be his last opportunity to play for a while. The playcalling hasn't given him many opportunities to shine, but maybe he'll get to show off the right arm a bit on Saturday.

Summary

Buffalo's best quarter is Q1. Its worst is Q2. If Mizzou manages to get up early in this one--as is normally the case at home--then this one will be academic quickly. But there's a chance the Bulls make it a game through at least the first 15 minutes. We'll see. All I know is, Naaman Roosevelt is the Bulls' only proven big-play threat, and Mizzou is still very good at taking away a team's #1 weapon. If Gettis (and whoever else) shut down Roosevelt, Willy (who is not altogether mobile) will be facing many passing downs and a pass rush hungry after a couple of mediocre weeks. Without the big plays for UB, this one should get ugly. Mizzou 52, Buffalo 13.

Poll

BTBS projections say Mizzou by 37.

Too optimistic for Mizzou?

22 votes

Not optimistic enough?

76 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou pistol whips Nevada, 69-17

RPT — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:29:15 -0000

(Photo courtesy Jonathan Brownfield, MUTigers.com)

Well, I'm absolutely soaked after the floods came on the walk back to the car after Mizzou's 69-17 thrashing of Nevada, so I'll go ahead and open up this thread for postgame reaction while I head off to take a shower.

The postgame podcast should be posted sometime soon, and Good, Bad, and Indifferent will be available after the jump on this post later in the day.

UPDATE, by rptgwb at 5:37 p.m.: Good, Bad, Indifferent now after the jump.

FINAL STATS

And, just a quick note, take anything "Bad" with a grain of salt. I do indeed realize that it was a 69-17 win over a very formidable non-BCS team.

GOOD

The Mizzou offense... Here's my thorough, in-depth analysis: They're really, really good. Three minutes into the game, Mizzou was on pace for over 3,100 yards of offense. We'll break it down a bit further:
Chase "Golden Watermelon Balls of Fury/Booger" Daniel: Hey, remember what "Heisman candidate" Graham Harrell did to Nevada? Chase Daniel laughs at you, sir. 23-of-28 for 405 yards and 4 TDs in a performance that broke the school record for career passing yardage? That would get you in the "Great" category, if it existed.
D-Wash: His 59-yard touchdown run on the first possession completely changed the complexity of the game. Nevada figured out early it had to respect the run, and that opened up the offense to have the numerical explosion it did.
Jeremy "Cheat Code" Maclin: It is sad that, outside of his long touchdown reception on the second drive, I though he was contained for most of the day? I come back to the stats and see that "contained" apparently means 239 all-purpose yards and 3 touchdowns.
Chase Coffman: Thrust the Nunchuck Upwards failed to get his trademark hurdle in this game, but he represented Aaron O'Neal's No. 25 jersey well, finishing with six receptions, 127 yards and a touchdown. Plus, he gave us in Tiger's Lair the thrill of counting his FIVE stiff arms on one play during a video replay. Looks like Thrust Nunchuck Upward learned how to Punch Nunchuck Forward.
Jared Perry: A quiet six catches for 98 yards and a touchdown (not including one called back for holding), but most importantly for Perry, no drops, when it looked like several passes could have eluded his grip.
The "other" corners: Carl Gettis locked down his half of the field, and Kevin Rutland and Tru Vaughns looked much improved today, with both making several plays on the ball at its highest point. And, although not a corner, Del Howard made a few solid plays today after being questionable at best recently.
The Salute to America: The crowd was DEAD until the B-2 flew over Faurot. Plus, the tribute to Mizzou linebacker and Iraq veteran Zach Milligan (pictured above the jump), was an awesome moment.

BAD

Conventional Wisdom: All we ever hear is about how much Pinkel hates running up the score. What should we make of the fake field goal? Everything I know has been turned upside down. What's next? War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength? Pinkel blew my mind in Orwellian fashion.
Blaine "Matthew Stafford" Gabbert: Anyone else getting concerned about his inability to back down his throws?
The Hail Mary: Mizzou seems to love giving up points on the last play of the half. I'm interested to know who was responsible for Marko Mitchell streaking down the sideline with NO ONE near him when everyone in the stadium knew what was coming.
Dap is due: This isn't a true "bad," but can we give some major love to Colin Kaepernick? As discussed in the podcast, those playfakes were absurd. Seeing the triple option out of the Pistol formation is a sight to behold.
Penalties: The stat sheet only shows 50 yards lost to penalties, but considering the plays they called back, they were worth a lot more. And a few holds ruined what was a very productive day of downfield blocking.

INDIFFERENT

The tenants of The Zou: The 54,000-plus attendance figure wasn't very impressive, but given the horrible weather, I can't rail on it too much.
The blueprint is established: If you watch enough tape on Mizzou, the blueprint of how to exploit the Mizzou D is beginning to emerge. When Mizzou blitzes up the gut, exploit the soft zone with hooks. When Mizzou blitzes outside or runs a base D, run either a screen or draw. The Mizzou D-Line has been EXTREMELY prone to getting upfield too fast at the expense of filling gaps (Kansas could kill MU with the shovel pass all day long in November).
What to do?: Where do we go from here with William Moore? I've got to believe he needs to start backing off the line of scrimmage. He's yet to come up with any huge plays on the blitz, and his presence up front leaves Garrett and Howard hanging out to dry. Granted, I'm not in practice every day, but wouldn't it make more sense to have the hard-hitting but air-vulnerable Garret on the LOS and put the ball-hawking Moore back in coverage?
The O-line: It didn't seem like a great day, but I can't find anyone or anything to single out and complain about. It's nice to be an O-lineman when Chase distributes the ball as quickly as he does when he sees a blitz coming.
Kickoffs: Wolfert had me scared earlier with subpar kickoffs early in the game, but he was launching them by game's end. Plus, as Beef noted in the podcast, the coverage was outstanding, led by Team Velodrome: Gachkar and Ebner (with some help from Lambert).

The comments are open... What am I missing?

SB Nation - Justin Garrett

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

---

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri(30)

NW'ern(23)

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Summary

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

Why choose? All of the above!

Big 12 'BTBS' (mostly) Final Rankings

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

PREDICTIONS

Bowls*

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Okie State

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

No MVP--we lost!

Rock M Roundtable!

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

BTBS projections say Mizzou by 37.

Too optimistic for Mizzou?

Not optimistic enough?

Mizzou pistol whips Nevada, 69-17

Missouri
(30)

NW'ern
(23)