SB Nation - Chase Patton

Kansas State: Beyond the Box Score Offensive Preseason Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

Can Old Man Snyder get those kids off his lawn and get K-State back to the top of the North?

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

As we round the home stretch with opponent previews, it's time to look west to Manhattan, where Bill Snyder looks to deliver Miracle #2 to central Kansas.

Bill Snyder has an interesting job ahead of him for 2009 and beyond. He enters a Big 12 North that is either much more balanced than it was 10 or 20 years ago (before it was the Big 12 North), or with a different balance of power, depending on how you view the long-term prospects of both Missouri and Kansas. When he brought Kansas State up from the ashes 20 years ago, Kansas and Missouri were basically defunct programs. Now that they're both on much less shaky footing two decades later, can Snyder deliver the talent necessary to get back atop the division? Is it possible for all three programs to coexist at a reasonably high level?

Even though Gary Pinkel never actually beat Bill Snyder on the field, it's been my theory for a while that Pinkel still played a major role in driving Snyder toward retirement through recruiting, particularly in the Kansas City area (thank you, Andy Hill). Missouri signed Chase Coffman and James Stigall in 2005, and Tony Temple, Chase Patton, and Jerrill Humphrey in 2004--three of these five players could have made a pretty significant impact in keeping the Wildcat program afloat in Snyder's last year or two, and while he would have stood a good chance at landing all of these guys in the mid- to late-1990s, they were signing with Missouri in the 2000s. And that's to say nothing of Kerry Meier (whose brother went to KSU), who signed with KU and could have helped as well.

Anyway, with a few years off to hop on the rejuvenation machine, Snyder faces a pretty tough task, particularly in 2009, where a mediocre-but-upperclass roster awaits his magic touch.

2008

Record: 5-7 (2-6 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 192.3 (79th in the country, 9th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 419-430 (-11)
Conference Scoring Margin: 231-339 (-108)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #85 UL-Lafayette, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #117 North Texas, 1-AA Montana State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #20 Kansas, #21 Nebraska, #65 Louisville, #82 Colorado

So...0-7 versus the Top 84 teams, 5-0 versus #85 and beyond. Overall ranking of #79. God bless the S&P+ rankings...they make things so clean and pretty sometimes.

Despite the fact that they came within one point of bowl eligibility (they lost to CU, 14-13), this really was a pretty dreadful K-State team. Their five non-Colorado conference losses were by 30 points (Texas Tech), 23 (Oklahoma), 31 (Kansas), 17 (Missouri...who led by 31 before Brandon Banks went off against Mizzou's scrubs...damn Ron Prince), and 28 (Nebraska). A once-proud program was left to feast on a relatively easy schedule to rack up five wins, but the overall talent level of this team simply wasn't very high. Ron Prince rode into Manhattan with the reputation of a master recruiter, but combined with Snyder's last couple of rather unimpressive recruiting classes, there just was not much to be excited about. The only truly fast guys (Banks and, to a lesser extent, Deon Murphy) weighed about as much as Miley Cyrus, their big guys weren't very good, and...well, their defense was pretty god-awful*. Snyder should pretty quickly be able to improve the latter of those three issues, but the other issues might take a while, especially since Murphy's no longer with the team, and they still don't appear to have a running back worth a damn.

* There was also the issue of Josh Freeman not being developed even 1% beyond the QB he was when he came to school in 2006--any improvement he made was from experience, not coaching...I mean, did they really not have anybody to help him with his footwork? It was atrocious! But I don't want to turn this preview into a big anti-Prince screed, so I left this as an asterisked issue.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bill Snyder
Record at K-State: 136-68-1 in 17 years (135-58-1 after the first year)

With as many great Snyder pieces as have come out this summer, I won't go into a lot of detail here. Snyder pulled off one of the bigger miracles college football has ever seen, dragging a program that had experienced four winning seasons in 50 years (none better than 6-5 since 1954) to nine wins or better in 10 of 11 years (11 wins or better in six of seven), to a Big 12 title in 2003, and to within a Sirr Parker of a national title game appearance in 1998. He produced a ridiculous amount of great assistant coaches, including (in alphabetical order) Phil Bennett, Bret Bielema, Dana Dimel, Jim Leavitt, Mark Mangino, Bob Stoops, Mike Stoops, and Brent Venables. There is no telling how much talent resides on his current staff--we'll know the answer soon enough--but his 17 years in Manhattan were unbelievably successful. You can't even call it a resurrection, because that suggests previous life. He built something out of nothing, and now he's coming back to do it again. I'm not particularly optimistic that he can succeed, at least not to previous levels, but there's no question in my mind that he can at least produce a winning program again, and after the Dark Years of Ron Prince, that's an improvement.

Alright, to the numbers!

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 98.0 (#70)
Success Rate+: 95.2 (#78)
PPP+: 101.7 (#61)

Standard Downs S&P+: 96.6 (#78)
Passing Downs S&P+: 87.3 (#103)

Redzone S&P+: 97.3 (#73)

Q1 S&P+: 106.6 (#54)
Q2 S&P+: 97.1 (#77)
Q3 S&P+: 81.7 (#110)
Q4 S&P+: 92.4 (#91)

1st Down S&P+: 95.9 (#80)
2nd Down S&P+: 81.4 (#115)
3rd Down S&P+: 102.8 (#57)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 94.2 (#86)
Rushing SR+: 101.6 (#63)
Rushing PPP+: 85.6 (#99)

Standard Downs: 90.4 (#94)
Passing Downs: 85.5 (#100)

Redzone: 96.5 (#85)

Line Yards+: 100.6 (#62)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 101.5 (#58)
Passing SR+: 90.4 (#89)
Passing PPP+: 113.6 (#39)

Standard Downs: 104.7 (#48)
Passing Downs: 87.2 (#95)

Redzone: 99.1 (#65)

Sack Rate+: 186.0 (#7)

The K-State rushing and passing games were almost complete opposites in 2008. The Wildcats were reasonably efficient (at least average) running the ball but had no explosiveness whatsoever. Meanwhile, the passing game was relatively explosive (39th in the country in PPP+) but inefficient and inconsistent. KSU wasn't good enough at any one thing to carry them through dicey games and really only played in 2-3 close games all year. Either they were more talented than their opponents (North Texas, Montana State, Iowa State, etc.), or they were overwhelmed by more athletic, more disciplined teams. You could honestly say the same thing about Missouri's 1999-2001 teams.

Other notes:

I wish I had a decade's worth of play-by-play data. I'd love to see if there were any other first-round quarterbacks who led offenses that ranked 95th or worse in most Passing Downs categories. You look at the top of the Passing Downs Passing S&P+ rankings, and you see most of the top QBs in college football--Mark Sanchez (1st), Daryl Clark (2nd), Colt McCoy (3rd), Sam Bradford (4th), Matthew Stafford (5th), Tim Tebow (6th), Jevan Snead (7th), Max Hall (10th), Zac Robinson (11th), Chase Daniel (12th). Josh Freeman's offense ranked between those of Idaho and Kent State. Not the most sparkling of company.
Interesting split--the K-State O-line was 62nd in run blocking and 7th in pass blocking. You figure Freeman does get some credit for his elusiveness and ability to take a hit and still get a throw off. Both of those things would help sack numbers. But still, that's a pretty big difference.
The K-State offense was mediocre in the first quarter, bad in the second, and pretty damn awful in the third and fourth. And they were one of the worst offenses in the country on second downs.

Quarterback

He's a Coffman--he's got to be pretty good, right?

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#10 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Carson Coffman (6'3, 212, Jr.)
Grant Gregory (6'1, 205, Sr.)
Daniel Thomas (6'2, 227, Jr.)
Joseph Kassanavoid (6'3, 239, RSFr.)
Collin Klein (6'5, 227, RSFr.)

But that's enough about Josh Freeman. It's time to talk about...well, whoever's going to be K-State's quarterback in 2009. The candidates are plentiful. You've got a South Florida transfer in Grant Gregory, who has spent his entire South Florida career backing up Matt "Homeless Man's Brett Favre" Grothe. He's completed 27 of 50 passes in his career, mostly in scrub time, for 384 yards, 3 TDs and 3 sacks. You've also got Junior college transfer Daniel Thomas and a pair of big, 3-star youngsters in Joseph Kassanavoid, pride of Lawson, MO, and Collin Klein of Loveland, CO, who came across as decent running weapon in the spring game.

But the most likely candidate, it seems, is Carson Coffman, middle brother of the Coffman clan. After looking pretty iffy in scrub time against North Texas, he was downright decent in, well, scrub time, in conference play. Against the backups of Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, Coffman completed 13 of 17 passes for 179 yards, a touchdown, and a pick. You really can't get a good read for how those numbers translate to success, but he has racked up a bit of experience in the past two seasons, and, well, he's a Coffman. He's got to be pretty decent, right? Who knows what Coffman's ceiling is (or the ceiling of any of these guys, for that matter)? What's certain is that the winner of the QB battle will be taking the reins of a pretty different offense than what they were recruited to K-State to run.

Running Backs

Keithen Valentine's shining moment in 2008--a touchdown against North Texas

2008 Unit Ranking: #119 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected HB Depth Chart
Keithen Valentine (5'8, 193, Sr.)
Dee Bell (5'8, 177, So.)
Frank Delarue (5'8, 200, So.)

Projected FB Depth Chart
Jarell Childs (6'1, 220, RSFr.)
Jay Hanley (6'1, 235, RSFr.)

Keithen Valentine made news last year by coming out of nowhere to win the starting running back job at the beginning of the 2008 season. He didn't keep it very long--he rushed for a combined 118 yards in 31 carries against less-than-stalwart North Texas, Montana State and Louisville defenses--before he gave way to others. First, it was Lamark Brown, putting up an impressive 137 yards in 29 carries in a tight win over UL-Lafayette...and then managing just 287 yards in 88 carries (3.3 per carry) the rest of the way. Then something called a Logan Dold took over, carrying 21 times for 115 yards in a win over Texas A&M...and following that with 131 yards in 42 carries (3.1 per carry) the rest of the wa. Apparently Ron Prince would have found more success in the running game if just started a different guy each game, no matter the quality.

When describing the quality of the 2008 K-State RB corps, I have two items that tell the story: 1) as you see above, K-State had the 119th-ranked FBS RB corps. Yes, that's out of 120 teams. Only Washington's was worst. 2) The two guys who split the most carries for the Wildcats in 2008--Brown and Dold--are playing different positions in 2009 (Brown a WR, Dold a DB). What's left is Valentine and...well, a couple of other guys. You can't really gauge spring game stats for much, but here is a countdown of the number of rushes different players saw:

Valentine: 20 carries
Jarell Childs: 12
Frank Delarue: 7
Dee Bell: 4

Maybe that means something, maybe it doesn't, but if I had to guess, that's roughly the split you'll see during the season...at least at the start. And again...Valentine was unimpressive enough last year that he lost his starting job to two guys who weren't good enough to stay at running back. Something tells me Bill Snyder can't hit the recruiting trail hard enough--he's already locked down a commit from 4-star Wichita Northwest RB DeMarcus Robinson (who had an offer from Mizzou, for what it's worth). Unfortunately, Robinson's still going to be at Northwest this fall. Somebody's got to run the ball for K-State in 2009, but I'm not sure anybody's going to run it particularly well.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

K-State's best RB and WR could combine for an average of 5 feet, 7.5 inches, and 171 pounds. You're fun to watch, Brandon, but eat a steak. Or two.

2008 Unit Ranking: #48 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Brandon Banks (5'7, 150, Sr.)
Aubrey Quarles (5'11, 195, Sr.)
Lamark Brown (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Attrail Snipes (6'1, 180, Sr.)
Adrian Hilburn (6'1, 195, Jr.)
Matt Wykes (6'2, 209, Sr.)
Brice VIgnery (6'1, 204, Sr.)
Chase Mejia (5'10, 170, Jr.)
Russell Simons (6'1, 206, So.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Jeron Mastrud (6'6, 253, Sr.)
Jayson Cuba (6'2, 240, So.)
Gabe Gantz (6'6, 252, Jr.)

So it's safe to say that Brandon Banks produced more per pound than just about everybody else in the country. Generously listed at 150 pounds (ESPN has him at 142), Banks was huge (so to speak) in non-conference play, with 22 catches for 463 yards and six touchdowns. He had his moments in conference play (77-yard touchdown against OU, five catches for 95 yards against Colorado, seven for 116 against Iowa State, complete torching of Mizzou's backups...screwyouronprince), though he was less consistent (which makes sense considering most corner's covering him had 50 pounds on him); regardless, he still ended up with an impressive 67 catches for 1,049 yards. Nothing could help him more in 2009 than a couple of other decent targets, including at least one big, possession-style receiver. Bill Snyder's probably hoping that Aubrey Quarles (34 catches, 407 yards) and converted RB LaMark Brown fit the bill. Brown is certainly a big guy and a decent athlete, and though he didn't really work out at RB, he might (might) have a shot to be a decent WR.

As a whole, this unit is low on proven quantities and low on years of eligibility. As you'll see, this is a recurring trend on this roster, thanks at least in part to Ron Prince signing something like 19 JUCOs in his final recruiting class. This is either a good or bad thing for Bill Snyder, depending on how you look at it--Snyder will get a chance to pretty quickly insert his own recruited players into the mix, but he'll also be looking at a youth movement in year #2 or #3, which isn't a favorable situation considering Old Man Snyder is...well, old, and probably isn't going to stay on the job for ten years. His time is relatively finite, and he's not going to have an experienced team of his recruits until about year #4 or #5.

Offensive Line

This is the only good Nick Stringer picture I could find.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Nick Stringer (6'6, 271, Sr.)
~~G Brock Unruh (6'6, 288, Sr.)~~
T Clyde Aufner (6'7, 288, So.)
G Colten Freeze (6'5, 287, So.)
C Zach Kendall (6'3, 287, Jr.)
G Eric Benoit (6'4, 286, Sr.)
T Trevor Viers (6'5, 284, Jr.)
G Kenneth Mayfield (6'4, 311, Jr.)
C Wade Weibert (6'4, 287, Jr.)
T Kaleb Drinkgern (6'7, 270, So.)
G Aaron Jackson (6'2, 310, RSFr.)

By far the highest-rated unit on K-State's offense, the offensive line carved out a Top 15 finish thanks to their outstanding sack rate. Guess we'll find out how much of that was due to Josh Freeman's elusiveness and sack avoidance skills, huh? If there is a decent line in this mix, it gives Snyder something to work with--Nick Stringer could be very good at one tackle position, ~~and even though I could have sworn I read something about Brock Unruh being lost for the season, I can't find any such article now, so apparently I made it up~~ though losing Brock Unruh for the year will hurt. ~~Those two~~ Stringer will combine with a young but relatively talented supporting cast, and if Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze can continue to thrive after serving as part-time freshman starters, then this becomes a downright good line. Lord knows it needs to be good, what with an inexperienced QB (whoever wins the job) and little discernible talent in the backfield.

Summary

Best-case scenario: the line congeals well, Carson Coffman (or whoever) looks confident, experienced and poised in the pocket, a solid receiver emerges alongside Brandon Banks. All of this opens up lanes for the running game. K-State is able to move the ball reasonably effectively, enough that a suddenly well-coached defense is able to look at least a smidge like the KSU defenses of old, and K-State wins a bunch of 24-20 type of games.

Worst-case scenario: the new QB stinks, the RBs are terrible, Banks is too little to get open consistently (and his supporting cast stinks), and a line whose stats were propped up by Josh Freeman's size and escapability isn't good enough to make anybody look better. K-State's offense is worse than Iowa State's and Colorado's, and the defense is still a year or two away from competence.

I apparently hold Bill Snyder high enough in regard that I continuously look for evidence that this team can be good. It's certainly possible that good coaching can produce at least a competent running game, and that Coffman-to-Banks becomes a big-time combination, but the odds aren't superb on that one. Chances are, K-State struggles a bit in Snyder's first year. There just isn't enough skill position talent to get things done in the Big 12.

Will the Chiefs Sign Any Rookie Mini-Camp Tryouts?

Chris Thorman — Fri, 15 May 2009 17:28:53 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

Kansas City Chiefs running back Javarris Williams (40) worked alongside an unknown tryout running back during rookie camp at the team's football practice facility in Kansas City, Mo., Saturday, May 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

Browse more photos »

Through some creative Internet sleuthing and Bob Gretz's blog, we've identified almost positively five of the six try out players from last weekend's rookie mini-camp at Arrowhead Stadium. They are QBs Drew Tate and Chase Patton, SS Glenn Williams, C Dominic Green, LB Bobby Abare and an unknown running back.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley said the team hoped to make a decision on some of these guys by last Monday. We haven't heard anything yet on whether or not any of the six made the team but then again, I don't think we would have heard any announcement by now anyway if a decision had been made. Such is the nature of the Pioli regime.

Let's check out these guys one at a time.

QB Drew Tate

One of the two quarterbacks the Chiefs invited to the rookie mini-camp, the 6 foot tall, 192 pound Tate started for three seasons at Iowa before being picked up by the St. Louis Rams as an undrafted free agent in 2007. Before his college and brief pro career, Tate was a high school standout from Baytown, TX, (Seriously) whose high school numbers are on par with Graham Harrell and Colt McCoy. The three of them share quite a few Texas high school football passing records.

Tate fared quite well while at Iowa, gaining notoriety in the 2005 Capital One Bowl when he made a game wining TD pass with no time left to beat the LSU Tigers.

Skip ahead to the about the 4:50 mark to see that pass.

He only stuck around St. Louis for about three weeks before being let go. After his 2007 release, Tate has been spending time playing in the CFL for the Saskatchewan Rough Riders.

Tate's lack of size (6' tall, 192 pounds) is likely the major reason he did not get drafted in 2007.

"In my opinion if Drew were two inches taller he would have been a third or fourth round selection in last week's NFL draft," said Roughriders general manager Eric Tillman. "He has a strong arm; he's mobile, intelligent, tough and super competitive."

I highly doubt Tate makes the roster with four QBs already on it.

QB Chase Patton

For those not aware, Chase Patton is the Matt Cassel of the 2009 NFL Draft class. Patton rode the bench at Missouri for 99% of his career, backing up Heisman finalist Chase Daniel in the process.

Patton has great size for an NFL QB - 6'4", 220 pounds. That size and potential is what has scouts at least interested in him as an undrafted free agent.

"You simply have to take a hard look at a guy who has those types of measurables at a big school," says one. "Because there's no set way to find a quarterback."

Like with Drew Tate, I don't think there is room on the Chiefs' roster for Patton to break through as a #3 quarterback. It's likely he wouldn't remain on the practice squad long either.

LB Bobby Abare

We covered Yale LB Bobby Abare just recently when I jumped the gun and called him one of our officially signed undrafted free agents. He would be a good special teams addition for the Chiefs.

Click here to read more on Abare.

SS Glenn Wiliams

I have to admit that my knowledge of Glenn Williams was non-existent before he entered the Chiefs rookie mini-camp. Safeties from Duke don't exactly get a lot of national attention.

The 5'10", 185 pound safety doesn't have a lot of ink on him either. By far the most info on him comes from Duke's web site. Williams was a four year starter who moved from cornerback to safety before the 2008 season. From what I can find on Williams, he seems to be a reliable, smart safety who just doesn't have that "next level" athelticism and talent.

C Dominic Green

This 6'3", 295 pound offensive linemen has that versatility thing going on for him, just like Pioli and Haley like. Green has started games at center, tackle and guard during his career with the University of Nevada WolfPack. He earned a number of pre-season distinctions before the 2008 season but ended the season on a pretty terrible note - by getting a DUI on December 12th, 2008.

Green was arrested and charged with DUI and driving with expired tags. He lost his captain spot for the WolfPack's upcoming Bowl game and he lost his scholarship.

***

The odds are very long for any of these five players to make the Kansas City Chiefs squad at the beginining of the 2009 season. The nearly complete rookie mini-camp attendee list is after the jump.

Thoughts on the chances any of these guys make the team?

Kansas City Chiefs Rookie Mini-Camp Attendees

Draft Picks	1st Year Players	UDFAs	Try-outs
DE Tyson Jackson	WR Rodney Wright	DT Dion Gales	QB Drew Tate
DT Alex Magee	G Edwin Harrison	DE Bobby Greenwood	QB Chase Patton
CB Donald Washington	LB Darrell Robertson	DB/WR Londen Fryar	LB Bobby Abare
OT Colin Brown	TE Jed Collins	LB Pierre Walters	SS Glenn Williams
RB Javarris Williams	DT Derek Lokey	WR Taurus Johnson	C Dominic Green
TE Jake O'Connell	G Tavares Washington	LB Jovan Belcher	Unknown RB
K Ryan Succup	LS Tanner Purdum	OT Cameron Goldberg
WR/KR Quinten Lawrence	*LS Thomas Gafford	S Ricky Price
		LB Corey Smith
		CB Jackie Bates
		TE Tom Crabtree
		G Darryl Harris

Poll

How many of the tryout players will the Chiefs sign?

0

117 votes

1

218 votes

2

176 votes

3

65 votes

4

36 votes

5

14 votes

6

14 votes

640 votes | Poll has closed

Monday Musings - The Winding Down Edition

The Beef — Mon, 04 May 2009 13:00:14 -0000

Pretty light on the sports docket this past week, and the weeks are only going to get lighter as we turn the calendar to May. Softball ended its regular season, and men's golf is very likely to have ended its entire season. Diamond sports were taking on the Huskers on both diamonds, and Julie Potter of the women's golf team got some good news this week. Let's get to the good stuff.

Softball:

The #13 Tigers finished out the conference season coming off of their disappointing home sweep at the hands of OU last weekend. With the Big XII regular season championship all but out of reach, the team headed out on Saturday and had that door officially closed, taking a 6-1 loss. Senior Stacey Delaney was not very sharp at all, giving up all 6 runs in 6 innings of action, including 2 Husker HR's. The offense was still down, plating only one run when they were already down 3-0. The team was in need of a big effort on Sunday, and they got exactly that from freshman Chelsea Thomas, who spun a 2-hitter. The Tiger's offense was still a bit down, collecting only 3 hits, but the biggest of the day came after Megan Christopher had driven in the first run of the game on a bases loaded walk. Senior Lindsey Ubrun gave Mizzou all the runs they would need on a grand slam, her 14th HR of the season. She now has 45 RBI's on 46 HITS this season...amazing. Mizzou would win 5-0, locking up 2nd place in the coming Big XII tourney with a final record of 42-9 and 12-6 in conference.

The festivities down in OKC will start on Friday with the play-in games. The game Mizzou will be paying attention to will be the 7/10 matchup of #10 Texas Tech and #7 Okie State. Okie State just swept Tech this past weekend 2-1 and 8-0 (5). Mizzou will take on the winner of that game first on Saturday morning at 11am. During the regular season, Mizzou swept both teams on the road. A win would mean the semifinal game against the winner of the 3/6 game of Baylor and aTm at 5pm, also on Saturday, before a potential championship game Sunday at 11:30 on FSN. During the season, Mizzou swept Baylor on the road and run-ruled aTm at home. #6 aTm actually swept #3 Baylor, though in two one-run games.

This is a tournament Mizzou can certainly win. They have the most pitching of anyone and are right there with anyone for offense. Delaney must rebound from a couple of shaky outings. It will be interesting to see if the coaches decide to try to go with 3 starting pitchers (in which case I would go Nottlemann, Thomas then Delaney) or if they just go with Thomas and Delaney on Saturday and roll the dice with one of them for Sunday's game. But if the offense can get back into the swing of things (it was great to see Shana White back in the lineup), we can expect to see this team on Sunday with a chance to win it all.

Baseball:

Who would have thought it would take until the final days of April for the Tigers to have a game cancelled? Crazy stuff.

Mizzou headed out for the road for the week, scoring a big win Tuesday night at the Wooden Bat game in O'Fallon against E. Illinois Johnny Wholestaff was very solid with the exception of Ryan Allen, and the offense was spurred by Aaron Senne's 2nd HR of the season. The rain would come into play on Wednesday, cancelling the Tiger trip down to play ~~SMS~~ MStU, though those two are still scheduled to play Tuesday this week at Taylor.

The final regular season roadtrip took the Tigers to Nebrska for three against the Huskers. Friday night saw Kyle Gibson not quite at his best, but he gutted it out until the Tigers would score 4 in the 7th to break a 4-4 tie. 4-5-6 hitters of Aaron Senne, Kyle Mach and Steve Gray combined for 7 hits, 4 RBI's and 4 runs scored to lead the offense. Saturday had Johnny Wholestaff (with a Scooter Hicks twist) take the mound and lead Mizzou to a 6-3 win. Leadoff hitter Austin Holt had 2 hits on the day, with Ryan Lollis driving in a pair. Sunday had Nick Tepesch take the mound to try to close out the series sweep. Tepesch was let down by his defense at times, but he battled for 6 innings and did enough to give the Mizzou bats enough time to come back. They did that on the back of HR's by Connor Mach, Gray and Holt, and Johnny Wholecloser came on to make it interesting (especially Ian Berger), but the Tigers would hold on for a 12-9 win, their 7th in a row.

Additional Thoughts on Baseball:

Man...would I love one more starter. Don't ge me wrong. Johnny Wholestaff has been a god-send for this team, especially as April has turned into May. However, as the offense has (finally) picked up, another starter would be tremendous. Perhaps, maybe give the Wholestaff start to Fick or someone (I would have said Berger before this poor outing on Sunday) on Tuesday capable of going long and see how long they can go. If they struggle, Wholestaff is there. If they are OK and they can start to gain some confidence, maybe you give them the start on Saturday or Sunday against CS-B. Would be great to have another starter in time for the conference tourney and whatever may be beyond....

....you know what? After seeing the members of Johnny Wholecloser...I am not sure this plan will work since the two people I'd like to see get that starting role were both pretty terrible. This is what I get for writing this before the box score was out. It is still a nice thought however.

Coming into this week I wanted 4 of 5 and was done better. I really want 3 out of 4 this week. Take MStU on Tuesday and 2 of 3 from kU and I will continue to be very pleased, and will continue to feel good about where the team is headed and their post-season chances. Of course, if they want to run the winning streak another week, that'd be fine too.

Outdoor Track:

The final regular season meet of the season was contested Friday night down at Arkansas, and the action was cut short due to weather. However, before all was said and done, Mizzou would still score some wins and impressive performances. Senior Chris Rohr would keep up his great season by once again winning the hammer throw, while his female counterpart Krishna Lee would take the discuss and come in third in the hammer. Brian Hancock came just short of clearing his personal best height in the pole vault on his way to a 2nd place finish.

The team now gets a week off before heading to the Big XII Championships in two weekends.

Men's Golf:

The team had some tough elements to deal with over their four rounds of the Big XII Championships, as rain was prevalent on two of the three days down in Texas. In the end, the team did shoot pretty well on the day without the rain, but the bookend rounds were not as good, and the team would finish the season with a 9th place finish. Sophomore William Harrold did improve as the rounds went on, and was able to shoot an even-par 70 on the final day to secure an overall tie for 17th place. Senior Peter Malnati would finish his Tiger career in 28th, bested by other senior Ryne Fisher who took 23rd. Sophomores Tyler Hillis and Chris Johnson closed out the scoring for Mizzou.

Women's Golf:

Even though her finish at the Big XII Championships was likely considered a little disappointing, junior Julia Potter did qualify to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Regional Championships which will be this weekend down in Florida at the East Regional. 8 teams and 2 individuals will move on and advance to the NCAA Championships. She also earned her 2nd 1st Team All Big XII award this past week.

Up Next This Week:

Baseball has four big games and needs to keep the wins coming. Softball has a chance to win the Big XII Championships. Julia Potter has a shot to move on to the NCAA Championships and that is that. Just three sports in action.

Random Thoughts:

Got to watch the replay of Pacquiao/Hatton and wow is all I can say. The punch to end it was as savage and sharp as any I have seen in a fight of that stature.
The save by the Washington Caps goalie Varlamov on Saturday afternoon against Pittsburgh and Sidney Crosby was just insane and probably won them the game. The save by Luongo in Vancouver was maybe even better, but not enough to stop the Hawks from winning
My thoughts are with the Dallas Cowboy franchise. The video of that is VERY scary.
Early reports out of Jets camp is that Mark Sanchez is impressing everyone. A great story coming out is that after the first day of practice and dinner that evening that Sanchez called the entire offense together for a study session, unbeknownst to the head coach. When the offense showed up running the plays perfectly after only receiving them the day before, Rex Ryan was impressed. He was even happier when he learned how it came to pass. (so to speak).
Excited to hear the early good news for Pig Brown and Chase Patton
Not that I saw any of it, but I was surprised to hear the NBA did not put Miami against Cleveland, rather than Atlanta. And yes, I am well aware of the inference/accusation I just made about the NBA and their officials. But Wade/Lebron for 4-5 games rather than Atlanta would have made for better ratings.
Saw The Godfather from start to finish (thanks HDNet for showing all three unedited and without commercials) for the first time ever actually. I had seen most of it, but it was good to finally see the entire thing, as it will be with the other two.

Meet the Chiefs Draft Interests (Trade Down Edition)

Joel Thorman — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 12:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Rogelio V. Solis - AP

8 months ago: FILE - In this Nov. 28, 2008 file photo, Mississippi State defensive end Tim Bailey (39) is shoved back by Mississippi offensive lineman Michael Oher (74) during the first half of an NCAA college football game. Oher is a top prospect in the 2009 NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)

Browse more photos »

Yesterday, we broke down by position all the draft prospects the Kansas City Chiefs have been reportedly interested in. No surprise that offensive line and linebacker led the way.

Then we looked at the players the Chiefs have worked out that could be the third overall pick.

Today, we're perusing our Chiefs Draft Interests page and highlighting all the players the scouting staff has looked at that are projected to go in the second or third round. If you're watching the Draft on Saturday, and at 3:20 PM you hear the Chiefs have traded down, there's a likelihood they'll know who to pick considering they've focused heavily on players in this draft range.

The list of players below is one of the biggest reasons so many folks across the league expect Scott Pioli and the Chiefs to move out of the third overall pick and collect more picks in the late first to early third round range.

OFFENSIVE LINE

OT Michael Oher (Ole Miss, Rd. 1) - Spoke with at Senior Bow/Attended Pro Day (March 31)/Scouted in person in 2008

*Oher settles in at the tail end of the top ten range to the high teens. If the Chiefs are looking at him as a tackle opposite of Albert (right or left), then they'll need to likely target the Buffalo Bills 11th overall pick.

OT Eben Britton (Arizona, Rd. 1-2) - Private workout (Reported March 25)

*Could be a right or left tackle (6'6", 310 pounds) and could be taken as high as the late teens in the first round.

DEFENSIVE LINE/LINEBACKER

OLB Brian Cushing (USC, Rd. 1) - Spoke with at Senior Bowl/Attended Pro Day (April 1)/Scouted in person in 2008

*Brian Cushing is projected to be a first round pick and would be of interest to the Chiefs if they were able to trade down. He, along with his USC counterparts, could be a tremendous help to the Chiefs and a great value if they were able to drop into to the bottom half of the first round.

DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati, Rd. 1-2) - Visited with the Chiefs (April 2)

*The Patriots are reported to have a lot of interest in Barwin as well. He's had arguably the best post-season workout run as any player in this draft class. Capable of playing as an OLB (1 year at Cincinnati) or a TE (3 years at Cincinnati), Barwin has been drawn comparisons to Chiefs' Mike Vrabel. He won't make it past the Patriots or Browns, early in the second round.

LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio St., Rd. 1-2) - Visited with the Chiefs (April 2)

*Came in on the same day as Brian Orakpo and Connor Barwin. It's strange...if Lauriniaitis have come out last year, he was projected to be as high as a top ten pick. Now, he's fallen to the tail end of the first round, possibly as low as the second round. He seems to have the Pioli mentality when it comes to football.

LB Larry English (Northern Illinois, Rd. 1-2) - Private workout (Reported April 8)

*English has been shooting up draft boards, possibly into the first round. He's been reported to have drawn the interest of the Patriots in addition to the Chiefs. He's projected as an OLB in the Chiefs' 3-4 scheme.

LB Clint Sintim

*Another interesting prospect as he's projected to go as high as 25th to the Dolphins and as low as the middle of the second round.

DE Jarron Gilbert (San Jose St., Rd. 2-3) - Private workout (April)

*Another guy gaining a lot of steam, maybe even into the end of the first round. Click the link above to see a cool video of him jumping out of a pool (Okay, that sounds weird. Just watch it if you haven't already).

NT Sen'Derrick Marks (Auburn, Rd. 2-3) - Private workout (March 30)

*Nose tackles are hard to come by but one of Marks' biggest knocks is that he's not big enough to handle larger defensive linemen. Not a characteristic a defensive lineman wants. He's likely to be available when the Chiefs pick in the third round.

DT Fili Moala (USC, Rd. 2-3) - Spoke with at Combine

*The Chiefs could be looking for another defensive tackle - though I would imagine they would prefer it to be a more traditional nose tackle.

DE Paul Kruger (Utah, Rd. 3) - Private workout (1st week of April)

*From Utah and is projected as an OLB. He's quick and has the frame to get bigger. The Broncos and Chiefs both worked him out.

SECONDARY

CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio St. Rd. 1) - Scouted in person in 2008

*I wouldn't read much into this. The Chiefs scouted him way back when we weren't sure if rookie Brandon Carr could handle the corner job opposite of Flowers (he can).

CB Mike Mickens (Cincinnati, Rd. 2-3) - Scouted in person in 2008

*Director of college scouting says he has the "temperament" to be an NFL corner.

CB Keenan Lewis (Oregon St., Rd. 3) - Spoke with at the Senior Bowl

*From Oregon State and had an interview with the Chiefs at the Senior Bowl. Haven't heard any news on him since that.

QUARTERBACKS

QB Chase Patton (MU, Rd. 7) - Rumored interest

*We just learned tonight the Chiefs have requested a contact number for Patton on Draft day so that's a good sign that he's on the Chiefs radar.

QB Josh Freeman (K-State, Rd. 1-2) - Attended local Pro Day

*Didn't even work out at the Chiefs complex. Nothing to see here. Move along...

QB Pat White (WVU, Rd. 2-3) - Spoke with at Senior Bowl

*Since the Senior Bowl meeting, we haven't been able to get a confirmation of Pat White working out with the Chiefs. He's been linked to the Patriots and Vikings, among other teams.

RUNNING BACKS/WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma St., Rd. 1) - Scouted in person in 2008

*The Chiefs could have been doing their due diligence last season when they scouted Pettigrew. Remember, last October, in the height of college football season, Gonzalez was publicly asking to be traded.

TE Chase Coffman (MU, Rd. 2-3) - Attended local Pro Day

*Coffman is an intriguing pick due in large part to the fact that he's local. Though Pioli has picked three tight ends in the first round while in New England, I expect him to hang onto Gonzalez in 2009 with Brad Cottam as his eventual heir.

WR Mike Thomas (Arizona, Rd. 2-3) - Private workout (March 24)

*Both the Chiefs (Pioli) and Broncos (McDaniels) set up a private workout with Thomas so maybe there's a bit of the 'Patriot Way' in him. His skill set is in a Wes Welker type mold, meaning he's a small and quick possession/slot receiver.

RB Andre Brown (NC State, Rd. 2-3) - Private workout (Reported April 16th)

*And here's my "Chiefs work out a RB...replacement for LJ?" post...

It can't be used as a legitimate clue into the Chiefs' front office because our Chiefs' draft interests page is ultimately incomplete, but only two offensive linemen that have been reportedly worked out by the Chiefs are expected to be in trade down territory.

Of these 20 prospects, nine of them were defensive linemen and linebackers. A sign that the Chiefs will be going defense in the even to of a trade down?

Taking the table from Chris' post yesterday where he broke down all the Chiefs draft interests by position, we can see the Chiefs are focusing their reported scouting efforts of defensive linemen and linebackers projected to be selected later in the first round to the third round.

Offense	Defense
OT (10)	LB (11)
WR (4)	DE (6)
QB (3)	DL (5)
OG (3)	CB (4)
RB (2)
PK (2)
FB (1)

Out of the sixteen reported DL/LBs on this list, nine of them would require the Chiefs trading down. That's quite the due diligence.

Chiefs' Pioli Looking to Mizzou for the Next Matt Cassel?

Joel Thorman — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 00:43:09 -0000

via cache.daylife.com

Interesting FanShot from tomahawk44 tonight. The Columbia Daily Tribune is reporting that former Mizzou backup quarterback Chase Patton has been contacted by the Kansas City Chiefs.

According to the Tribune, the Chiefs were looking for a contact number for Patton on draft weekend. The Chiefs have the final pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. They also figure to be players for Chase Patton if they choose to pursue him in the undrafted free agent market.

Like Matt Cassel, Patton has been a career backup.

Chase Patton: 18/31, 256 yards

Matt Cassel - 10/14, 97 yards

Of course they each played behind outstanding college quarterbacks in Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart (USC) and Chase Daniel (MU).

There was an ESPN the Magazine piece done on Patton recently. Scouts said the quarterback position is so difficult to draft (citing Tom Brady) that they have to check out everyone, especially the ones with the size.

"You simply have to take a hard look at a guy who has those types of measurables at a big school," says one. "Because there's no set way to find a quarterback."

What do you think of Chase Patton as a "project' draft pick?

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:00:05 -0000

1 - In preparation of the most emotional Senior Day EVER at Mizzou, what is your favorite unsung moment (i.e. not just "beating Kansas at Arrowhead", but something not everybody thinks or talks about) involving this year's Mizzou senior class? Doug, if you want you can just say "Chase Daniel eating boogers."

2 - If NU beats Kansas and Missouri beats KSU and ISU, the North title is Missouri's before Armageddon at Arrowhead II even takes place. How likely is this?

3 - Quick: one reason Missouri fans should be scared of the KSU game.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri
* Kansas at Nebraska
* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
* Oklahoma at Texas A&M
* Baylor at Texas
* Iowa State at Colorado

5 - Finally, who will be Kansas State's head coach in 2009?

The Beef: 1 - There was a run during the NU game last season that crystallized it all pretty well for me. I don’t remember the exact play, but Chase ended up scrambling out (as he did for a good number of yards in that game) and gained a number of yards running down the east sideline. He was eventually forced out of bounds, but kept his feet and momentum (hey…I’m a fat guy and know how hard it is to stop sometimes) and continued to run down the sidelines. He started to jump up and down and waive his hands, even I believe trying to give someone five as he went by them. That sort of passion has certainly been displayed before on our field, but he (Chase) just seemed to connect so well with the crowd at that moment. All the more interesting to me because this was a kid coming from TX who had no ties to our state or school and who gave (or was giving at the time) everything for us to change us…and he did.

2 - Obviously I think it is pretty likely Mizzou defeats ISU and kSU…am not as sure about kU losing to NU. Yes the game is in Lincoln, but I would suspect kU got a little healthy last week against kSU coming off of their tough few weeks. It is a big game for both teams, but I still see kU having more talent on the field and on the sidelines so I am thinking they go up to NU and pull off the win.

3 - Because last week happened I guess…but that is the best I can come up with. I suppose we should be a little trepidatious (not sure that it is a word) about our emotions early in the game giving kSU any sort of hope. And while I do not believe they can do anything on defense to stop us, our pass rush does need to get to Freeman.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri – Mizzou by a whole bunch

* Kansas at Nebraska – kU by 10-14 in the end

* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech – ooooh….good one. My first thought is let down by TTech…so I will go with that. Okie State eeks one out.

* Oklahoma at Texas A&M – Can someone tell OU the white flags being waved by the folks down there are because they are surrendering? Seriously though, good for aTm for showing some signs of life the past couple of weeks…it gets beaten out of them this week by an OU team that needs to start positioning itself in possible hopes of stealing a BCS berth should other national teams start to falter (like they have in the past).

* Baylor at Texas –I refuse to comment on this game since it appears to be this game which pushed us to the ridiculous 6:00 p.m. start time.

* Iowa State at Colorado – I refuse to comment on this game because it might set football back 75 years.

5 - The only name I have heard/seen mentioned so far would be a run at Patterson from TCU, who I think would be a great get for them (especially since he would not have to replace most of his tie collection). However, I have also seen that name floated for the Tenn opening…and let’s face it…they have more money. Seems to be a strange year for coaching openings…so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. But…if it is Ron Prince, someone better find TB and put him on suicide watch…or buy him a bunch of Mizzou apparel and a season ticket and start the conversion

The Boy: 1 - As the 2004 season was finishing its collapse, and we found ourselves down 28-0 to Kansas in the second half, I more or less stopped watching the game and started watching this cluster of players on the sidelines. Every time Mizzou did anything good at all, this group started jumping up and down and chanting and cheering...Mizzou scored to make it 28-7...then 28-14...and the cluster of players started growing. I started recognizing jersey numbers and names...#14 Patton...#5 Alexander...it was basically the entire group of redshirting freshmen. For a split second, it looked like we'd come all the way back and win that game, but when it didn't happen, I found myself thinking "If it is ever going to turn around for Gary Pinkel here, it's going to be that group of players that does it." Now...that was only half-right. Some of the biggest reasons for the turnaround--Daniel, Coffman, Hood, Christopher--didn't show up on campus until the next summer, but in that cluster of chanting freshman were guys like Tommy Saunders, and Stryker Sulak, and William Moore, and Steve Redmond, and, of course, Aaron O'Neal...a bunch of guys who made significant contributions (intended and unintended) to the program on and off the field...and without those contributions, Gary Pinkel would not be coaching in Columbia right now.

2 - Before last week, I'd have said hell yeah to the idea of NU beating KU. But now I'm not so sure. KU's defense is porous enough that NU could be able to move the ball, especially if the Fightin' Pelini's are fired up after embarrassing themselves last weekend--but I think the run-pass threat that KU has going on right now will be too much. Man oh MAN would I love to see NU knock the 'Hawks off, though.

3 - I'm just going to assume that Mizzou is going to be emotionally drained and flat for most of the first quarter, and if KSU starts the game off like they did in '06 (getting a fumble return TD on the first play and moving the ball well on the ground), then they'll at least have a fighting chance of staying in the game for a while. But...no. We're not losing this game. We're just not.

4 - Mizzou 52, KSU 16
Kansas 41, Nebraska 31
Texas Tech 35, Oklahoma State 28
Oklahoma 49, Texas A&M 27
Texas 44, Baylor 10
Colorado 1, Iowa State -1

5 - Honestly, for the long-term it might make more sense to let Ron Prince sink with the "18 senior starters, about 3 of whom are talented" ship next year and bring in a new coach with a new batch of scholarships to start from scratch in 2010. And it certainly sounds like the KSU higher-ups are (the only ones) in Prince's corner. I don't know what to think about this one. It might come down to whether they win another game this year or not...if they show well against NU and ISU, maybe he sticks around...but if they humiliate themselves again in those two games, they'll have no choice but to can him.

Doug: 1 - Chase... Daniel... eating... boogers. Yeah, yeah, that'll work quite nicely.

2 - It's a road game for Kansas this weekend, and they're 1-1 in conference road games this season... but, it happened for Missouri this season, I don't see why Kansas can't win at Nebraska on Saturday. I think KU is back on track (Thanks K-State!) and now it's a question of which Nebraska team shows up, the one that played Texas Tech tough, or the one that rolled over against Oklahoma. I have no idea. That said, I think the Big 12 North title will come down to Arrowhead.

3 - Because crazier things have happened? I don't know what it is, but Kansas is like Josh Freeman's kryptonite. I've never seen a guy be that bad against one team... especially if that one team is KU. That said, he wasn't that awful against Missouri last year, 256 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. A lot depends on how well Lemark Brown can run the ball and take some pressure off of the throwing game, though I think KU was willing to sacrifice 3 meaningless rushing touchdowns to constantly be in Freeman's face. No matter what the school says, part of Ron Prince has to think his job is on the line, and maybe that'll change the way he preps the Wildcats for this game. They've got nothing to lose... and that's when a foe is at their most dangerous. (Or is that wounded and backed into a corner? I can never remember.)

4 - Missouri - And, after all that, I'll still go with the safe pick.
Kansas - I don't know if the game only being on pay-per-view is because NU isn't very good, or because the conference knows the entire state of Nebraska will shell out the $30 for the broadcast.
Oklahoma State - Why should anything be easy for the BCS?
Oklahoma - Seriously, this game is on TV? National TV?
Texas - I don't know if the Longhorns and Mac Brown ever get pissed off... but I still wouldn't want to be Baylor on Saturday.
Colorado - Because it's in Boulder... and because I had to pick a winner.

5 - Bob Krause. At this point, he's about as qualified to be head coach as he was to be Athletic Director for a Division I school

rptgwb: 1. Rather than just giving a blanket statement, I'll note some of my favorite moments for each player just going down the list:

Daniel - How do you choose just one?
Patton - Hearing the students explode every time Patton came on the field as a way of saying "thank you" for staying at Mizzou
Coffman - Which is YOUR favorite nunchuck?
Willy Mo - The pick at Arrowhead was huge, but I'll always remember the image of WillyMo standing up and flexing after picking off Juice in 2007
Jackson - Hearing Mike Kelly call him "the kid form Caruthersville" 900 times
Saunders - No defining moment for Mr. Dependable
Bridges - Without a doubt, the one-handed spinning pick of Reesing

There are obviously others, but that's where I'll cut the list for now.

2. Depending on which Nebraska and Kansas teams show up, it could be very likely. But Kansas appears to be getting its act together at least a little bit, while Nebraska can't exactly be overflowing with confidence right now. I think if they played 10 times, KU would win 6 or 7 times. Can NU play one of the 3 or 4 games this weekend? I don't know.

3. Because we just SURVIVED BAYLOR BY ONLY THREE POINTS.

4. Picks:
Mizzou over Kansas State by 35
Kansas over Nebraska by 10
Oklahoma over Texas A&M by 20
Texas over Baylor by 24
Colorado over Iowa State by 7
*Upset special: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech by 4

5. Jon Wee-fald? Weff-ald?

rptgwb: By the way, Kansas State this week = Homer Simpson in this clip:

Michael Atchison: 1 - Chase Daniel, as a freshman, relieving Brad Smith in a lost-cause game against Iowa State, and rallying the Tigers to victory. Think of the ripples. They lose that game (as they surely would have), they probably don’t go to a bowl game, Gary Pinkel likely gets fired, there’s turmoil in the program, and the last two years never happen.

2 - I think the odds of Nebraska beating Kansas are about one in four, making the odds of hypothetical outcome one in four point five.

3 - There is no reason for Missouri fans to be scared. In the parlance of this political season, I just can’t see KSU’s path to victory.

4 - Mizzou by 23.
Kansas by 6.
Tech by 2.
Oklahoma by 31.
Texas by 24.
Colorado by 4.

5 - I’ll say Ron Prince is the head coach in 2009, because if it’s not him, I have absolutely no idea who takes the job. Perhaps they should make a run at Phil Fulmer.

ZouDave: 1 - It's a virtual collage of greatness in my mind. From Stryker Sulak's pick 6 against Texas Tech in 2007, to Willy Mo's steamrolling of Marlon Lucky in 2007, to Tommy Saunders' raised finger in salute to his Grandfather, to Jimmy Jackson's GREAT performance in place of Temple against Texas Tech in 2007, to Ziggy Hood's mere presence, to Brock Christopher's INT against Nebraska this season, to Colin Brown destroying defenders all day long in the Cotton Bowl.....to Chase Daniel. I am going to miss that pudgy little bastard.

2 - Let's say 35%. kansas has been a bit more bipolar this year than even Mizzou has in that sometimes they look really good and sometimes they look really bad. Nebraska has looked better since we caved their faces in a few weeks ago, and I think they were a lot more pissed about the loss to ku last year than the loss to Mizzou. I think *this* is the game they've had circled all year. They're going to be pumped, both players and fans, and if ku starts slow again (which they've done on the road a couple of times) I'm not sure Nebraska gives them a window to come back. If kansas just plays their game, though, the Huskers can't keep up.

3 - Injury.

4 - Missouri by 42. I think we're going to rape this team.

kansas by 7. I think NU closes late but cannot make it happen.

Texas Tech by 14. Everyone is going to be looking for a letdown game for Tech, but I don't think OSU is quite as good as the rest of the South (their win over us not withstanding).

Oklahoma by as much as they want. I think OU ends up the South champion but they're going to keep getting style points just in case.

Texas by 24. They'll right the ship.

Iowa State by 10. 13-3.

5 - Honestly I think it will be Ron Prince, but I think he'll have brand new coordinators. Once 2010 is also a flop, they'll all be gone.

rptgwb: One moment I'd forgotten was the pick-six by WillyMo in Lubbock in 2006, one play after the Xzavie Jackson pick-six. That has to be one of my favorite moments of all time for vindictive reasons, leading into the depressing shot of the Tech girls with the "What the hell just happened... but, we're Texas Tech!" look on their faces.

That was a great night - I was at the American Airlines Center watching the Stars open the home season by beating Beef's Devils while catching glances at luxury boxes to keep up with MU/TTU.

ZouDave: Well maybe it's just me, but I'm much happier with a 6:00pm kickoff than I would have been with a 11:00am kickoff (or 11:30am). Not that I wouldn't have been there, early, and ready to go but I hate leaving KC at 6:30am to get to a football game. I find it difficult to get any kind of meaningful buzz going prior to the game when it's that early in the morning. And no, that's not my only concern, but it's nice when I can take my time during the day, leave KC around noon, have a solid few hours of tailgating time and then get to enjoy the game. I love Faurot Field at night (despite the OSU game this year).

2:30pm would have been the best, but KSU isn't a good enough opponent for us to have hoped for that.

The Beef: Personally, the 6:00 pm game time changed some of our plans and plans of friends visiting from out of town...but that is what it is. However, the fact it will be back into the 30's (very likely) during the game is going to kind of suck, and will keep some folks at home (which is always too bad)

ZouDave: I have faith in the Missouri fans. A year ago we though there was NO WAY we'd get a sellout against A&M on Senior Day with the early kickoff vs deer season but the fanbase stepped up and made that day great.

It's easy to dress warmly for games. Especially with it being Blackout Day, because everyone has black Mizzou sweatshirts already. I expect the fans to be packed starting the game, but the crowd will taper faster since we'll be up huge and it will be late and cold.

I just hope everyone that is there gets their asses into the stadium earlier than normal to see all of the Senior Day stuff. This is one we won't soon forget. I'm going to be openly weeping, there's simply no chance I won't be. I will probably hug a stranger.

The Beef: You are a bit of a crier....

ZouDave: You have no proof.

The Beef: Hmmm...I bet I could find some...

Doug: Will Dave's sister be there?

I'll hug her.

Michael Atchison: I don't mean to intrude on the festival of weeping over guys named "Chase," but would it be fair for me to note that basketball season starts with exhibitions this week, and that since we last convened, Marcus Denmon played the role of a white-hot Clarence Gilbert in the Black and Gold game?

The Beef: It is a fair note...so who is going to be present at the first exhibition game of the season tomorrow? Who plans to watch the proceedings on TV?

Michael Atchison: I forwarded my tickets to the nerdy guy on this site who does all those statistical pieces that no one reads. As soon as I'm back from Family Math Night at my daughter's school, I'll be settling in front of the TV.

The Beef: Boy...sure hope the nerdy guy goes to the game with those tickets

ZouDave: I will not be remotely present, and while it's on I will probably be working on the Baylor game highlights. I think some of you will be happy with the music choice...

ZouDave: I think I've cracked your code....

The Boy: Let's just say that the nerdy guy hasn't actually received the tickets in the mail yet, therefore the nerdy guy has no obligation just yet.

And the nerdy guy prefers this picture instead:

Michael Atchison: Nerdy guy need not fret. The tickets were placed in the U.S. Mail in Kansas City on Monday. They should arrive in Columbia today, or tomorrow at the absolute latest.

The Boy: And by the way...what the hell is Family Math Night???

ZouDave: In Independence it would be Family Meth Night

Michael Atchison: It’s where families from the elementary school gather to eat hot dogs and play math games to stimulate the young people’s interest in the subject. Tell me how much you want to trade lives with me.

The Beef: Does not sound all bad…I mean…I like hot dogs…what kind of condiments are we talking about though? Anything fancy? (cheese? Onions?)

Michael Atchison: Little packets of mustard and relish.

The Beef: Eh…I’ve been to worse outings…

Doug: How are the hot dogs prepared? On the rollers? Or boiled?

Try to hold out for the rollers.

ZouDave: Worst. Topic. Ever.

Michael Atchison: You guys asked. I never indicated it would be interesting.

The Beef:

ZouDave:

(An hour later...)

The Boy: I'd just like to remind everybody that the last time we had a Roundtable this lackluster, Mizzou lost. LOST!

rptgwb: You guys have no idea how scared I get on Roundtable days when I'm in class and I click an email with the "paper clip" attachment graphic next to it.

It's not easy to explain to people why I just opened an email with a huge picture of Rupaul in the middle of a lecture. Or any other time for that matter.

Doug: Oh, well now you're just going to encourage them.

The Boy: This could get ugly.

The Beef: So…um…does this change things? From GoPowerCat.com

Kansas State football coach Ron Prince is expected to announce his resignation during a 4 p.m. teleconference Wednesday sources have told GoPowercat.com. More news as this story develops. Prince was hired as K-State head prior to the 2006 season, and collected a record of 16-18 during his tenure as head coach. K-State is scheduled to play at Missouri on Saturday

Doug: Holy f...

The Beef: Yeah…that ought to spice things up

Doug: It ain't exactly Fulmer... but I never expected Prince to throw himself on his own sword like this.

The Beef: Or be pushed onto the sword bolstered by some nice compensation?

Doug: I don't know. K-State isn't exactly over-loaded with big money donors. I imagine he was offered the buy-out money and maybe next year's salary on top of that, but I highly doubt there's some comically large check with a comically large dollar figure sitting by his door right now.

The Beef: I thought there was one name I remember reading that they needed to get on board…maybe something with a V? I could be making that up though

Doug: Are you thinking of Varney's Bookstore?

Seriously though, I just pulled up the list of $50,000+ donors for the K-State Athletic Scholarship fund. There is a Dennis Von Waaden on there. Ring any bells?

The Beef: No…let me go back and try to find it…was probably on TB’s site

The Beef: From TB…

He needs to get the big boosters, primarily the Vaniers, on his side.

Doug: Oh yeah, I think that's the name on their football complex that's attached to the stadium.

The Beef: Ah…then yes…you would want to get those folks in your boat

ZouDave: Just finally able to jump in here...this is crazy! Was this his secret plan?

rptgwb: Did anyone else notice that this is two years in a row that the opposing coach has been put on the "resignation" block a few days before the Mizzou senior day game?

First Franchione in 2007, now Prince in 2008. Gene Chizik better watch himself in 2009.

ZouDave: That goes in line with us playing against what's-his-nuts up at ISU in 2006 for his last game, and against Bill Snyder in 2005 in his last game. Neither of those went well for us.

Doug: Otherwise known as Dan "What's-his-nuts" McCarney.

ZouDave: That's him

rptgwb: By the way, to refer back to my favorite Willy Mo moment from the 2006 Tech game, I finally got around to grabbing a (low-res) screenshot:

THAT is what Mizzou football does.

The Boy: The best thing about that game was, Graham Harrell had the exact same look on his face after Moore's pick. Leach had to take him out of the game for a series because he was so shell-shocked.

ZouDave: for what it's worth, I like these Texas Tech girls better:

The Beef: Good lord the one on the bottom right is a whore….

ZouDave: you know her?

The Beef: Nope….just guessing…it would be like passing Jenna Haze on the street…I might not know it was her…but I would draw the same conclusion…

And with that…we should probably wrap this up

ZouDave: especially if you're gonna be with Jenna Haze....

The Boy: He's here all week, folks.

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:00:06 -0000

I have this done already, so I may as well post the BTBS a day early.

Another week, another set of mind-blowing BTBS numbers for the Mizzou offense. But notice this too: against Texas Tech, Nevada put up a 0.779 S&P and 26.88 EqPts. Against Mizzou, those numbers were 0.666 S&P and 19.97 EqPts. So while Mizzou and Tech gave up roughly the same number of actual points, Mizzou's defense performed better as a whole. And it's performing incrementally better each week.

To the numbers we go! And for The Beef, I'm once again bolding the key points. You're welcome.

Missouri		Nevada
	% Close = 29.5%
	TOTAL
65	Plays	84
48.55	EqPts	19.97
55.4%	Success Rate	42.9%
0.75	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.24
1.301	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.666

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
26	Plays	18
22.60	EqPts	6.15
57.7%	Success Rate	55.6%
0.87	PPP	0.34
1.446	S&P	0.897

	RUSHING
12.13	EqPts	9.66
31.0%	Success Rate	48.8%
0.42	PPP	0.22
0.729	S&P	0.713

	PASSING
36.42	EqPts	10.31
75.0%	Success Rate	36.6%
1.01	PPP	0.25
1.762	S&P	0.617

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
56.0%	Success Rate	50.9%
0.75	PPP	0.30
1.309	S&P	0.811

	PASSING DOWNS
53.3%	Success Rate	25.9%
0.74	PPP	0.10
1.273	S&P	0.360

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	1
0.00	Points Lost **	1.18
0.00	Points Given ***	7.00
0.00	Total T/O Pts	8.18
+8.18	Turnover Pts Margin	-8.18

Notice how quickly Mizzou put this out of reach. Less than 30% of the game was played in "close" circumstances--that's almost as low as it was against SEMO last week. Against Mizzou, you're under such pressure to score and score early that one mistake can feel like having your serve broken by Pete Sampras--you just don't know how you're going to make up the distance you've just given up on the scoreboard.

Mizzou Passing (in order by points)

Chase Daniel: 28.20 EqPts, 82.1% success rate (GOOD GOD), 1.01 PPP, 1.829 S&P
Chase Patton: 4.08 EqPts, 50.0%, 1.02 PPP, 1.520 S&P
Blaine Gabbert: 0.37 EqPts, 33.3%, 0.12 PPP, 0.455 S&P

82.1% success rate for Chase Daniel. EIGHTY-TWO POINT ONE PERCENT SUCCESS RATE. GOOD GOD. And for the second straight week, Mizzou averaged over 1 point per pass. Every time the ball leaves Chase Daniel's arm, that's another point on the scoreboard.
Patton occasionally unleashes a pretty bad ball, but you can't complain with a 1.520 S&P from the second-string guy.
I do wish we would run the full playbook when Gabbert's in the game. I want to see what his touch is on the downfield passes. We're getting so unbelievably spoiled with Daniel's touch on the 20-yard passes.

Mizzou Rushing (in order by points)

Derrick Washington: 7.63 EqPts, 1.58 S&P
Chase Patton: 1.61 EqPts (on 1 carry)
De'Vion Moore: 1.39 EqPts, 0.339 S&P
Chase Daniel: 0.47 EqPts (on 1 carry)
Blaine Gabbert: 0.34 EqPts (on 1 carry)
Jeremy Maclin: 0.28 EqPts, 0.139 S&P
Jimmy Jackson: 0.20 EqPts, 0.065 S&P
Danario Alexander: 0.10 EqPts (on 1 carry)
Tyron Reece: 0.12 EqPts (on 1 carry)
Shaun Scott: -0.01 EqPts (on 1 carry)

Derrick Washington was once again outstanding, putting up a 62.5% success rate and 1.58 S&P.
Unfortunately, the rest of the Tigers put up only a 19.0% success rate and 0.404 S&P. A lot of this was due to the high percentage of junk time carries, but still...aside from Washington's big run, the running game really never took off. One carry skews the numbers, but it's still something I'd like to see improve against Buffalo.
De'Vion Moore had a forgettable game but still looked pretty hard to bring down.

The passing game, on the other hand, was near perfect.

Mizzou Receiving (in order by points)

Jeremy Maclin: 14.42 EqPts, 3.40 S&P
Chase Coffman: 9.56 EqPts, 2.59 S&P
Jared Perry: 7.84 EqPts, 2.31 S&P
Tommy Saunders: 3.72 EqPts, 1.62 S&P
Derrick Washington: 0.38 EqPts (on 1 catch)
Jon Gissinger: 0.37 EqPts (on 1 catch)
Danario Alexander: 0.15 EqPts (on 1 catch)

Every single reception resulted in a "successful" play. That's crazy. The combination of efficiency and aggressiveness being shown by the Mizzou passing game right now is damn near unprecedented.
14.42 EqPts from one guy? Really? That's four more EqPts than all Nevada receivers managed combined.
When your "possession" receivers (Perry, Saunders) are putting up 1.62 and 2.31 S&P's and going for close to 100 yards each, you know you can do no wrong.
I re-watched most of the game yesterday, and I actually think Danario Alexander is 100% healthy, or damn close. He's never been the most agile of runners, but on the reverse--his first touch of '08--he was running like the rigid-but-powerful colt I remembered from '07. Plus, he didn't look gimpy on his one catch or the other two plays in which he was the target (the pass interference call in the endzone, and the inside screen he dropped). He needs to get some more game action to get back his feel for the game, but I'm not too concerned about his health.
I'd like to have seen the freshmen get involved again, but oh well I guess.

Mizzou Defense - Successful Tackles

Sean Weatherspoon - 6.5
William Moore - 3.0
Will Ebner - 2.5
Stryker Sulak - 2.5
Luke Lambert - 2.0
Jaron Baston - 1.5
Tommy Chavis - 1.5
Brock Christopher - 1.5

Mizzou Defense - % of plays made by...

Defensive Line: 12.0 total tackles, 75.0% success rate (19.0% of total tackles)
Linebackers: 21.5 total tackles, 62.8% success rate (34.1% of total tackles)
Defensive Backs: 29.5 total tackles, 22.0% success rate (46.8% of total tackles)

Weatherspoon was all over the freaking field, especially considering he missed a couple tackles. But what, he couldn't come up with another Pick Six? What the hell, Sean?
Will Ebner continues to make big plays in limited playing time. Hell, I'm starting to wonder if he's our third-best LB at this point.
The lack of sacks in the last two games is almost starting to concern me, but the D-line is still making plays, so I'm not worried yet. And it's a lot of people making plays--Sulak, Baston, Chavis, Hood, Jacquies Smith, Chris Earnhardt, and Terrell Resonno all had a hand in a successful tackle.
A word about unit success rates: as a whole, anything over 75% is good for the DL, anything over 60% is good for the LBs, and anything over about 25% is good for the DBs. So by that, the front seven played quite well and made quite a few plays. If we were to take pass breakups into account, I'm pretty sure the DBs would grade out pretty well too.
A word about the % of tackles by unit: I like to see the DL making 25% or so of the defense's tackles, but it's hard to quantify being that, if they're occupying blockers and the LBs are making quality tackles, then the D-line still did its job. So instead we'll say this: as a whole, you'd like to see your front seven making at least 55-60% of the overall tackles. Mizzou's front seven only accounted for about 53% of the overall tackles, but considering how close William Moore's been playing to the line, you could almost throw him into the "front seven" mix. Bottom line is, Nevada put up 488 yards against Texas Tech and only 362 against Mizzou. Take away the inexcuseable TD on the last play of the first half, and that number drops to 320 yards, which would be pretty outstanding against Nevada and Colin Kaepernick.
Another thing that's almost starting to concern me: we're not forcing as many turnovers as I expected to see. It's probably not an actual problem by any means. I mean, 1) our #1 turnover maker (William Moore) has been hobbled, 2) we're making the turnovers we do force count (3 defensive TDs in 3 weeks), 3) we're not turning the ball over at all (KNOCK ON WOOD), and 4) five takeaways in three games certainly isn't bad. My own high goals expected a little more, is all.

Summary

Only 4 times in 2007 did somebody produce as high a Passing S&P as Mizzou did on Saturday: Toledo (against Northern Illinois), Clemson (against Central Michigan), Florida (against Western Kentucky) and Oklahoma (against North Texas). Nevada doesn't have a great defense, but it's needless to say their defensive unit is more capable and talented than the 2007 versions of those teams above, especially after what they did to Texas Tech last week.

The rushing game left a bit to be desired after Washington's first carry, but the passing game is simply unconscious right now. My mom actually asked me on the phone yesterday if they're peaking too early. I said it's a smidgen of a concern, but overall nobody really seems to be playing over their heads. It's just "read, react, rack up the yards" right now, and I have no reason to believe they won't continue playing above their 2007 level the rest of the season. Which is an unbelievably scary thought.

As for the defense, things are beginning to look up. If not for the mini-Hail Mary at the end of Q2, there really wouldn't be anything to complain about; but honestly, that play may have been a good thing because the defense played pissed off in the second half and completely shut down a pretty solid offense. Buffalo has a decent offense with a decent QB (the awesomely-named Drew Willy), but they don't have the big-play capability that Nevada has. If Mizzou plays at its current level, the Bulls will be lucky to score the 17 that Nevada did. And if the defense continues to improve incrementally, then I'll be surprised to see Buffalo cross into double digits.

As we've been saying the last couple of days, soak this in, Mizzou fans. On Football Outsiders the other day, a Tennessee fan told me that he doesn't feel like he soaked in and enjoyed UT's 1996-99 run enough. We all expect Mizzou to win at a pretty strong level after this year, but we may never see another offense that can do what this offense is doing right now. Appreciate Chase Daniel, appreciate Jeremy Maclin, appreciate Chase Coffman, and take in every minute of this. Don't start looking ahead to Nebraska or Texas or Kansas or (cross your fingers) OU at Arrowhead just yet--there's too much to enjoy in the meantime.

Poll

Who was the statistical MVP of Mizzou-Nevada?

Chase Daniel (28.20 EqPts Passing, 82% success rate)

106 votes

Derrick Washington (8.01 Total EqPts, 1.58 rushing S&P)

3 votes

Jeremy Maclin (14.70 Total EqPts, 3.40 receiving S&P)

13 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (6.5 successful tackles)

4 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 14:00:04 -0000

So...does anybody really feel a great desire to dive into the intricacies of the BTBS stats for a 52-3 win that could have been 100-3 with the starters in? I thought not. But there are a few things I have to point out.

Almost Perfect

After the jump, you can check out my BTBS "box score" table for the SEMO game. In it, be sure to check out the 'close-game' stats.

Mizzou ran 17 plays while the game was 'close' (i.e. within two possessions).
Of those 17, 15 were successful.
Those 17 plays resulted in 17.25 EqPts.
Anything over a 45% success rate is solid. Mizzou's close-game success rate was 88.2%.
Anything over a 0.50 PPP is solid. Mizzou's close-game PPP was 1.01.
Adding those together, anything over about a 0.950 S&P is solid. Mizzou's close-game S&P was 1.897.
Looking back at my 2007 stats, only one offensive performance can top Mizzou's near-perfection here: Florida put up a 92.3% close-game success rate, 1.40 close-game PPP, and 2.321 close-game S&P versus Western Kentucky last year. F---ing Tim Tebow...always getting in Chase Daniel's way on the greatness scale...

QBs

For the game, Mizzou QBs put up the following numbers...

Chase Daniel

Passing: 88.2% / 1.07 PPP / 1.949 S&P
TOTAL: 80.6% / 0.90 PPP / 1.706 S&P

Chase Patton

Passing: 75.0% / 0.37 PPP / 1.121 S&P
TOTAL: 75.0% / 0.57 PPP / 1.321 S&P

Blaine Gabbert

Passing: 22.2% / 0.06 PPP / 0.280 S&P
TOTAL: 40.9% / 0.18 PPP / 0.589 S&P

Now...anybody who watched the game knows that Gabbert struggled more than Daniel and Patton. But slack should be cut toward him due simply to the personnel on the field...especially on the last drive, when he was handing to Shaun Scott (who actually looked decent) and Tyrone Reece (who didn't). In all, though, I do think it was good for Gabbert to get out the butterflies against SEMO. Hopefully he'll get some snaps against Nevada, Buffalo, and one or two conference opponents as well. Redshirt's off--might as well take advantage of it.

RBs

Derrick Washington: 7.57 EqPts (75.0% / 0.95 PPP / 1.696 S&P)
Jimmy Jackson: 4.93 EqPts (60.0% / 0.49 PPP / 1.093 S&P)
De'vion Moore: 4.09 EqPts (66.7% / 0.45 PPP / 1.121 S&P)
Shaun Scott: 0.61 EqPts (100.0% on 2 carries / 0.31 PPP / 1.305 S&P)
Tyrone Reece: -0.25 EqPts (0.0% on 2 carries / -0.13 PPP / -0.125 S&P)

Yes, it was SEMO, but it's still fun looking at unbelievable stats.

Receivers

Small sample sizes make it not really worth looking at S&P stats for the receivers, but here's a list of the receivers and how many EqPts they accounted for...

Jared Perry: 5.19 EqPts
Derrick Washington: 4.50 EqPts
Jeremy Maclin: 2.76 EqPts
Jerrell Jackson: 2.73 EqPts
Chase Coffman: 2.11 EqPts
Tommy Saunders: 2.10 EqPts
Wes Kemp: 1.09 EqPts
Jimmy Jackson: 0.58 EqPts
Michael Egnew: 0.56 EqPts
Andrew Jones: 0.35 EqPts

Tackles

Defensive Line: 85.7% success rate, 7.0 total tackles, 20.0% of overall tackles
Linebackers: 58.3% success rate, 12.0 total tackles, 34.3% of overall tackles
Defensive Backs: 18.8% success rate, 16.0 total tackles, 45.7% of overall tackles

Not to read too much into this, as it's impossible to stay focused when you're up 42-0 after 22 minutes, but there are a couple negative figures here.
The DB success rate is never going to be great, but it should probably be in the 25% range, not 19%.
The DL should be making 25%-30% of the team's overall tackles, not 20%. And on the flipside, the DBs shouldn't be making 46% of the tackles.
The LBs were just about where they should be.

Top Successful Tacklers

Andrew Gachkar, 2.0
Sean Weatherspoon, 2.0
Chris Earnhardt, 1.5
Will Ebner, 1.5 (seemed like about 12)
Kenji Jackson, 1.0

The tackles were spread across so many players that there really wasn't much to go on here.

Final BTBS Stats

Missouri		SEMO
	% Close = 19.79%
	TOTAL
69	Plays	81
40.99	EqPts	14.46
66.7%	Success Rate	35.8%
0.59	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.18
1.261	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.537

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
17	Plays	20
17.25	EqPts	3.57
88.2%	Success Rate	40.0%
1.01	PPP	0.18
1.897	S&P	0.579

	RUSHING
19.36	EqPts	3.50
65.7%	Success Rate	29.6%
0.59	PPP	0.13
1.251	S&P	0.426

	PASSING
21.62	EqPts	10.96
67.6%	Success Rate	38.9%
0.64	PPP	0.20
1.312	S&P	0.592

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
76.8%	Success Rate	39.2%
0.61	PPP	0.17
1.312	S&P	0.559

	PASSING DOWNS
23.1%	Success Rate	30.0%
0.55	PPP	0.20
0.778	S&P	0.499

	TURNOVERS
0	Number	2
0.00	Points Lost **	5.29
0.00	Points Given ***	8.57
0.00	Total T/O Pts	13.86
+13.86	Turnover Pts Margin	-13.86

Poll

Who was the statistical MVP of Mizzou-SEMO?

Chase Daniel

45 votes

Derrick Washington

9 votes

Jared Perry

2 votes

Sean Weatherspoon

10 votes

Andrew Gachkar

3 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou pounds SEMO, 52-3

RPT — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 03:51:16 -0000

via images.pictopia.com.edgesuite.net (Joel Kowsky, MUTigers.com)

Overflow thread for immediate reaction. Analysis to come in the form of the postgame podcast some time in the next 24 hours.

**SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE, by rptgwb: Good, Bad, and Indifferent now added after the jump. And I promise it doesn't just say "Good: Mizzou, Bad: SEMO."

GOOD

Football's back in CoMo: The clouds loomed, rain threatened a bit, and the opponent wasn't exactly a top draw, but it was football time in Columbia, damn it.
The tribute to AO: Arguably the coolest thing we saw all night was the debut of the tribute to fallen linebacker Aaron O'Neal, who would be in the midst of his senior year if not for his tragic death. The idea to have a senior wear an unnamed No. 25 jersey in his honor at home games this year is a fantastic idea. Brock Christopher shed his name and his No. 34 on his jersey to honor AO last night, and he represented No. 25 well.
Chase Daniel: He lacked some velocity and he forced a lot of throws that would have been picked by better competition, but 16-of-17 for 240+ in less than two quarters of play gets you in the "Good."
The RB trio: We all know how much I love Derrick Washington and how effective of a battering ram Jimmy Jackson is. But Gabe DeArmond and Dave Matter told us all offseason about De'Vion Moore and, boy, were they right. Shifty, shifty, shifty.
Health: Outside of Tru Vaughns and Brock Christopher getting a little banged up, most everyone came out healthy. Jeremy "Cheat Code" Maclin kept all his ankle ligaments intact.
The backup linebackers: OK, we REALLY need a nickname for the duo of Will Ebner and Andrew Gachkar involving the word "pursuit." Ebner and Gachkar were FLYING to the ball, and SEMO didn't run a play in the second half that these two didn't seem to have a hand in.
Other freshmen: Jerrell Jackson and Jacquies Smith announced their presence with very solid performances, and Kenji Jackson saw a large amount of playing time.

BAD

Trick plays... Really? As much as I loved seeing the double pass form Maclin to Daniel to Washington, did we really need it to knock off SEMO?
Four years of eligibility: So, those snaps against SEMO are going to have Blaine Gabbert ready for Illinois next year? That's what I'm being told?

INDIFFERENT

Tinkering: Eberflus continued to fiddle with the blitz and the coverage schemes, as we saw more of the bend-and-don't-break D from early in 2007 last night. As The Beef noted in the podcast, that happy medium is still out there waiting to be found.
The backup QBs: It was hard to judge Patton and Gabbert because no one seemed to want to run up the score. Patton seemed to move the ball fine, but I was a little concerned with Gabbert. His scramble was impressive, but his accuracy was a little off, missing a lot of targets, especially high where he was hanging his receivers out to dry.

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:00:05 -0000

We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007. (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
Projection #1: 35.34
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
Projection #1: 25.90
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 40.79

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 3.90
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 4.71
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

Special Teams

SEMO's special teams unit actually isn't that bad. Doug Spada is a stud punter--he averaged 42.6 yards per punt last year and uncorked a 47.6 yard average over 5 punts last weekend against SW Baptist (including two inside the 20). He's an average kicker--he went 2-for-4 on FGs last weekend, including misses from 34 and 35, but made a 47-yarder--and only averages about 59 yards on kickoffs, but let's be honest: he's going to be punting a lot more than he's kicking off or booting FGs, so this plays to his strengths. Their return game is nothing amazing, but it's also nothing terrible.

Unfortunately for SEMO, a) Mizzou just shut down a much better return game than SEMO has to offer, b) SEMO's never tried to tackle Jeremy Maclin before, and c) we've got Jeff Wolfert, and they don't. Special teams should be worth at least another 3-7 points on the scoreboard.

FCS Tier 6 Teams: Top '+' Rankings

Before I get to the "key players" for each team (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), I wanted to look at something. It doesn't take a genius to realize that "FCS Tier 6" probably averaged at or very near the bottom in most categories, '+' rankings and otherwise. However, my '+' rankings tend to show that, well, everybody's decent at something. So let's look at where "FCS Tier 6" ranked the highest.

#31: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#53: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#58: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#62: Offensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#67: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#72: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#77: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#80: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#81: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#85: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Now, the Q4 numbers are easy enough to understand--chances are, the other team's scrubs are in by that point. That might even explain the three Q2 categories. But the Defensive Line Yards phenomenon is rather interesting. Eight of the 10 categories have to do with rush defense in some way, and I don't completely have an explanation for that. In fact, let's just move on...

Key Players for SEMO

QB Houston Lillard

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's going to come from Lillard. He was a very impressive 27-39 for 387 yards and 3 TDs against SW Baptist last week and won the Ohio Valley's Offensive Player of the Week award, and even though that was against NAIA competition, that at least shows that he can throw, right? Of course, it would help if he had preseason All-OVC RB Timmy Holloman in the backfield with him, but Holloman was ruled ineligible for the first five games of '08. And backups Mike Jones and Jacob McKinley didn't exactly light SW Baptist ablaze.

WR Miles Edwards

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's probably going to be caught by Edwards, who had 204 yards and 2 TDs (including an 80-yarder) against SW Baptist. He was SEMO's leading WR last year too, with 480 yards and 7 TDs.

LB Jared Goodson

He's SEMO's most highly-touted defensive player, a preseason All-OVC selection, though he only had 3 assisted tackles against SW Baptist. So maybe I'll go with senior LB Nick Stauffer instead--he had 10 solo and 6 assisted tackles, plus a fumble recovery. Either way, I'll be honest--I expect nothing from him this week.

CB Eddie Calvin

The junior Rockwood Summit alum had a career day last week, registering 3 first-half INTs. Lord knows he'll get to find out just how good he really is this week. If he comes up with 3 more against Chase Daniel, he probably has a future in the NFL awaiting him.

Key Players for Mizzou

WR Jeremy Maclin

He needs to have a big play in the first quarter so they have no qualms about taking him out as soon as possible. I want to see lots of Jerrell Jackson, Michael Egnew and Wes Kemp.

QB Chase Patton

He needs to be 100% healthy so that we don't even think about tearing off Blaine Gabbert's redshirt.

CBs Castine Bridges, Kevin Rutland, Tremane Vaughns, Trey Hobson, and whoever else plays opposite Carl Gettis

This one should go without saying. Does Mizzou really have a weakness at #2 CB, or was the Illinois game a giant outlier? Somebody here needs to step up, and I guess it'll probably be Bridges.

Ss Justin Garrett and Del Howard (the return of Deltin Garward!)

I put Garrett on the spot last week, and his performance wasn't overly encouraging. If Garrett and/or Howard are the cause of another deep-ball breakdown this week, I'll officially become the fan of the Hardy Ricks Fan Club...and maybe the Zaviar Gooden Fan Club too.

Summary

Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt.

Missouri 59, SEMO 7*

(In these types of games, there's absolutely no idea to predict the score. Who knows when Pinkel will call off the dogs, and how many points the backups for both teams may score? Mizzou should end up with between 49-63 and SEMO 0-14. But all I know is...SEMO's really, really not good, and we may accidentally score 60.)