SB Nation - Castine Bridges

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 15:30:09 -0000

Moving right along in the Mizzou 2009 series...

Secondary

I think that was Ricky Steamboat's finishing move.

2008 Unit Ranking: #28 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Carl Gettis (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S Kenji Jackson (5'10, 195, So.)
CB Kevin Rutland (6'0, 195, Jr.)
S Jarrell Harrison (6'2, 220, Jr.)
S Hardy Ricks (6'0, 200, Sr.)
CB Trey Hobson (5'11, 190, So.)
S Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)
CB Robert Steeples (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
CB Kip Edwards (6'1, 200, RSFr.)
CB Munir Prince (5'10, 185, Jr.)
S Del Howard (5'11, 200, Sr.)

1. How bad was the Mizzou secondary in 2008? I won't spend a lot of time on this one, simply because I've gone over it before. Factoring in junk-time yards and the quality of the offenses Missouri was facing, they simply weren't nearly as bad as people want to think. Let's take a quick look back at the schedule, using good old S&P as a guide:

Opponent	Season Passing S&P	S&P vs Missouri*	Diff
vs Illinois	0.906	0.758	-0.148
Nevada	0.812	0.734	-0.078
Buffalo	0.855	0.827	-0.028
@ Nebraska	1.013	0.920	-0.097
Oklahoma State	1.083	0.950	-0.133
@ Texas	1.096	1.212	+0.116
Colorado	0.666	0.160	-0.506
@ Baylor	0.805	0.946	+0.141
Kansas State	0.853	0.195	-0.658
@ Iowa State	0.808	0.897	+0.089
vs Kansas	0.939	0.967	+0.028
vs Oklahoma	1.195	1.212	+0.017
vs Northwestern	0.812	0.792	-0.020

* Now's a good time to remind you that these are close-game ratings, meaning the only plays accounted for here took place when the score was within 24 points in Q1, 21 in Q2, and under 17 in Q3/Q4. Pretty much all of Illinois' passing success, for instance, took place when Mizzou was up a large amount, and when Illinois cut the lead back inside two possessions, the defense locked down again.

So Missouri held eight of 13 FBS opponents (no SEMO here) below their season rates, and in the case of a couple opponents--Colorado and K-State--completely shut them down. They gave up two huge passes to Northwestern and otherwise limited them to sometimes inefficient slant routes.

Now, one reason people are talking about how atrocious the Mizzou pass defense was in 2008 goes beyond the "117th in passing yardage" thing (which I've pretty thoroughly debunked by this time, I think). It's that they seemed to get worse as the season progressed. Of the five opponents who achieved an S&P above their season average, four came in the last six games, and they all came in the last eight. Granted, only two teams (Texas, Baylor) far exceeded their season averages--everybody else exceeded in very minor terms, but still, the Mizzou pass defense went from far above average early on (the perception was still hurt by those bombs to Will Judson against Illinois) to average or slightly below-average later in the season. Clearly that will need to change.

So here's my question: I don't think any of us are too worried about the secondary, at least not worried about them being any worse than last year. But if they actually weren't bad last year, can we still expect a comparative level of play? Can Kevin Rutland v2009 cover better than Castine Bridges (and Tru Vaughns, and Kevin Rutland) v2008? Can Carl Gettis do better in the nickel back role than William Moore did?

Mizzou's passing yardage numbers should improve this year for a number of reasons: 1) they probably won't be far ahead of teams as much, 2) they might be running the ball more (and therefore potentially eating more clock), 3) it's hard to get much worse than last year's yardage numbers, 4) et cetera. But will their S&P and S&P+ improve? Can they be counted on to at least hold teams to their season average in this regard? Are they going to be reliant on the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter to get good pressure on the QB and make their lives easier? We'll see.

2. Is somebody going to overtake Hardy Ricks in the starting lineup? Sub-question: how valuable is experience? I honestly have nothing against Hardy Ricks. I think he's a good hitter, he's a damn solid backup, and he seems like a good kid. I advocated for him to move to safety in 2007, thought that would suit his style of play better, and I still think that. But I just don't trust that he's good enough to be the starter in a decent secondary. I don't think his cover skills are up to snuff, even for a safety, and I'll feel much better about the defense if Jarrell Harrison or Jasper Simmons is able to overtake him as a starter by September 5.

And no, I do not know anything about the quality of play Harrison or Simmons are capable of delivering, but I think I know Ricks pretty well by now--he's a known quantity--and I'm really hoping that either or both of them are better.

3. Should Carl Gettis move to safety? This is not really a realistic question...just a thought. We've read for the last couple of weeks that this is the deepest set of cornerbacks Gary Pinkel has had at Missouri, how guys like Trey Hobson, Kip Edwards, Robert Steeples and Munir Prince are virtually interchangeable and how any of them would have started for Pinkel's first few teams. Meanwhile, at safety, Ricks is fighting with two JUCO transfers (Harrison, Simmons) for a spot in the starting lineup. And in the nickel alignment, Gettis plays the roaming nickel back. If he's already putting together some safety-esque skills, and Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince are better at CB than Ricks is at safety, then shouldn't this be a move we're considering?

Now...that's as far as I'm going with the thought. It's a waste of time to make suggestions or speculate about position changes when a) we're not at every practice (for all we know, Ricks could have turned into an all-conference safety over the offseason...though I think I'll go ahead and doubt that), and b) we're not the coaches, but it's certainly an idea that's been floating around in my head the last couple of weeks. I'd take my chances with a (short) safety combo of Kenji Jackson and Carl Gettis, with Kevin Rutland and the winner of the Hobson/Edwards/Steeples/Prince derby starting at CB.

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00:11 -0000

Yesterday: The Offense

Before we get to the defense, an aside.

I'm in an interesting position here. Nebraska is absolutely in the North's top tier of teams (as has been covered previously, there appears to be a rather large "proven talent" divide between KU/NU/MU and KSU/ISU/CU), and if they can win in Lawrence or Columbia (or maybe even if they can't), they can take the North. As you'll read below, the defense should be incrementally better while the offense could be incrementally worse, and while there are few true stars (Ndamukong Suh, Roy Helu, maybe Mike McNeill or a defensive end), there is decent experience at RB, DL, and DB. And Bo Pelini certainly acquitted himself relatively well in year #1.

As I've mentioned previously, my problem comes with expectations and with the casual nature that national-level analysts continue to just assume that Nebraska is now "back" despite little evidence to support that. Since making the national title game in 2001, Nebraska has gone just 28-28 in conference with a point differential of -68. As means of comparison, here are the North standings in that time frame:

Big 12 North Standings, 2002-08
Team	Record	Pt. Diff
Missouri	29-27	+235
Nebraska	28-28	-68
Colorado	27-29	-104
Kansas State	25-31	+189
Kansas	22-34	-297
Iowa State	15-41	-718

(Yes, that's right--ONE North team is over .500 combined in the last seven seasons--barely--and the North is, as a whole, 44 games under .500 in that span. Granted, Iowa State is responsible for 26 of those games, but...well...Baylor and their 10-46 record still reside in the South, and the division has still managed to be 44 games over .500. Yikes.)

Anyway, the frustration here lies in the fact that, every year we get to hear about Nebraska being "back" and Colorado being a "sleeper," and yet Missouri, who has been a smidge better than both of them over a 7-year (not just 2-year) span, is pronounced dead at the first possible moment. Just odd. But the good news is, as always, this is the offseason. The real season will give us all the answers we're arguing about or getting annoyed about at the moment.

/aside

Anyhoo, time to talk defense.

Nebraska pulled off an interesting feat in 2008. While winning six of seven games to end the season, they gave up 29.1 points per game in that span (23.7 in the wins), and yet the basis for most of their North title predictions this offseason come from how good the defense is going to be. They gave up 35 points to Virginia Tech, who had the #79 offense in the country (according to S&P+). They gave up 52 to Missouri and 62 to Oklahoma...37 to Texas Tech (not bad, actually)...35 to Kansas...28 to Kansas State...an egregious 31 to Colorado (S&P+ rank: 114th)...and yet the defense is going to carry them to the North title? Never mind how disrespectful that is for Kansas (and to a lesser extent, Missouri) fans to hear...how disrespectful is that to Joe Ganz? Nate Swift? Roy Helu Jr.? These were the guys who, along with Ndamukong Suh's big plays, carried the Huskers to a strong 2008 finish.

Now, before I go any further, make no mistake: the Nebraska defense has probably the best shot at being the North's best D in the fall. The point is, it's not going to be so good that they will get by Kansas and Missouri (both on the road) simply on the heels of the dominant Blackshirts. They're not going to be that dominant. In going for only their second North title since Eric Crouch was running the show, the onus will be on not only Zac Lee and an unproven receiving corps, but also a decent-not-great defense, which alternates between experienced guys with low ceilings and inexperienced, highly-touted players. Maybe Bo Pelini will push all the right buttons, but we shouldn't assume it will happen.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 108.9 (#41)
Success Rate+: 111.9 (#23)
PPP+: 105.7 (#53)

Standard Downs S&P+: 103.9 (#51)
Passing Downs S&P+: 114.0 (#31)

Redzone S&P+: 114.4 (#23)

Q1 S&P+: 95.5 (#75)
Q2 S&P+: 121.2 (#22)
Q3 S&P+: 82.7 (#105)
Q4 S&P+: 144.3 (#2)

1st Down S&P+: 96.8 (#71)
2nd Down S&P+: 120.6 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.9 (#32)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 102.0 (#60)
Rushing SR+: 104.4 (#47)
Rushing PPP+: 98.9 (#65)

Standard Downs: 91.5 (#86)
Passing Downs: 138.5 (#15)

Redzone: 96.4 (#74)

Line Yards+: 103.4 (#48)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 112.2 (#28)
Passing SR+: 118.0 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 107.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 113.1 (#39)
Passing Downs: 105.4 (#51)

Redzone: 141.3 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#9)

As a whole, Nebraska had a pretty efficient defense in 2008, but they struggled with the big play. Their success rates were quite solid, but their PPP+ numbers were lacking. They knew how to leverage an offense into bad situations (15th in Passing Downs Rushing), but they ended up occasionally letting teams off the hook (51st in Passing Downs Passing).

Other items of note:

Thanks in part to a very strong Adjusted Sack Rate, Nebraska's strength was in defending the pass. Again, they weren't tremendous from a PPP+ perspective, but their success rates were good. As I gather more data, it will be interesting to see which one is easier to improve with experience and better execution--success rates or PPP.
Strangely, as with their offense, their redzone rushing defense was awful, but their redzone pass defense was great. You figure it out; I can't.
While they did indeed have a strong sack rate, what's with the line yardage? It seems they were good at attacking and speed, but they couldn't avoid being pushed around (or, they attacked too much, and it was easy to use their leverage against them to create running lanes?).
Bad in Q1, good in Q2. Atrocious in Q3, outstanding in Q4. Again, you figure it out.
They were mediocre on first downs but quite strong on second downs...and decent-not-great on third downs. This coincides with what was mentioned above--they were good at making a bad offensive situation worse, but they let teams off the hook a bit.

Through all of this info, something else interesting emerges. For all the seemingly-justifiable hype generated by NU's D-line, it was the Huskers' worst-ranked unit in 2008. It was a decent #42, while the linebackers were #34 and the high-efficiency-too-many-big-plays secondary was #31 (at least partially because they played against so many great passing offenses, I assume). Kind of an identity crisis here.

But regardless of the rankings, it appears that the D-line and secondary could be better, while...honestly, I have no idea what to make of the LBs.

Defensive Line

Pierre Allen is overshadowed but solid.

2008 Unit Ranking: #42 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Ndamukong Suh (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DE Pierre Allen (6'5, 265, Jr.)
DE Barry Turner (6'3, 265, Sr.)
DT Baker Steinkuhler (6'6, 295, RSFr.)
DT Terrence Moore (6'3, 285, So.)
DE Josh Williams (6'4, 245, RSFr.)
DE Cameron Meredith (6'4, 260, RSFr.)

While nobody is going to mistake this unit for that of Oklahoma, this is clearly the most proven defensive line in the Big 12 North, at least in terms of the pass rush. Ndamukong Suh has slowly morphed from inconsistent playmaker to every-down dominant (he led Nebraska in tackles last season, as a defensive tackle, and posted 19 TFLs and two huge pick sixes), while Baker Steinkuhler, if he can gain the form of a 5-star athlete quickly, could make teams pay for doubling Suh. Meanwhile, on the outside, Pierre Allen posted 10.0 TFLs of his own last year, and Barry Turner might be able to make some waves after following up a disappointing 2007 season (he was outstanding as a freshman and sophomore) with a 2008 broken leg that earned him a medical hardship.

They were great at attacking in 2008, but it was possible to push them around a bit. Bo Pelini's defense has the reputation for attacking and blitzing a lot, but the strength of the attack is limited if you struggle against the run. Derrick Washington put up 139 yards and two touchdowns against them, Tech's Baron Batch went for 97 yards on just 10 carries, and Robert Griffin posted 121 yards. In all, NU's rush defense (#60) wasn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't great. Clearly that will need to improve considerably if Nebraska is to assume a spot in the Top 25 as they are now predicted to do.

Outside of Suh, Allen, and Turner, the defensive line is thin and inexperienced, but, well, that won't matter if the starters don't get hurt. Suh is clearly a force (though he has yet to make serious noise against Missouri, knock on wood), and Allen and Turner could make for a strong pair of rush ends.

Linebackers

Missouri fans probably know the name of Will Compton pretty well already.

2008 Unit Ranking: #34 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Phillip Dillard (6'1, 240, Sr.)
Blake Lawrence (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Will Compton (6'2, 220, RSFr.)
Sean Fisher (6'6, 230, RSFr.)
Mathew May (6'1, 210, So.)
Matt Holt (6'0, 200, So.)

So...what do you actually do with this unit? You've got 27th-year senior Phil Dillard, who has made 75 tackles in two years and almost no plays. You've got former 4-star stud Blake Lawrence, who has made 23 tackles in 15 games his first two seasons and made exactly one big play: an interception in 2008. You've got new 4-star stud Will Compton, whose biggest contribution thus far in his career was to assistant coach Mike Ekeler's arm but is expected to tear things up sooner than later...and then you've got a bunch of other youngsters. In limited action, Mathew May locked down a nice TFL, forced fumble, and fumble recovery, so he may hold some potential. Same with Matt Holt, who made 14 tackles in nine games (and one start).

It's unclear how much potential this relatively young unit of LBs has, and how quickly they can be expected to fulfill said potential. Clearly, the Huskers have a lot of hope in Compton, but...well, he's not any more highly-touted than Lawrence was, and Lawrence hasn't done anything of note yet. There's something to be said for the fact that the Husker D is now in its second year under Pelini, and knowledge of the scheme and higher levels of intuition will make things better. And there's also this: the Huskers had a respectable, 34th-ranked LB corps in 2008 despite the fact that there really wasn't a big-time playmaker among Dillard, Lawrence, and departed seniors Cody Glenn and Tyler Wortman. Pelini clearly knows LBs, and even if none of these guys are All-Conference caliber, this unit at least won't be a liability.

Secondary

Larry Asante...starting safety (I have nothing in particular to say about him...he's solid)

2008 Unit Ranking: #31 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Larry Asante (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Anthony West (6'0, 205, Jr.)
S Matt O'Hanlon (5'11, 200, Sr.)
CB Prince Amukamara (6'1, 200, Jr.)
S Ricky Thenarse (6'0, 205, Sr.)
CB Alfonzo Dennard (5'10, 190, So.)
CB Anthony Blue (5'10, 185, So.)
S Eric Hagg (6'2, 205, Jr.)

The secondary is as experienced as the LB corps is inexperienced, but there doesn't appear to be as much upside. Again, they gave up a few too many big plays, but I guess that is to be expected against the offenses they faced. They posted good success rate numbers, and that helped the pass defense a decent amount. Safeties Larry Asante, Matt O'Hanlon, and Ricky Thenarse are veterans, and that's never a bad thing for your last line of defense. But they also combined for only 10 TFLs and 3 INTs. Thenarse seemed to be the biggest offender in terms of giving up the big play (at least in games I watched), but he was most capable of making some plays himself.

Meanwhile, the cornerback position seems to have more potential overall--Anthony West ended up having himself a solid sophomore season, breaking up nine passes and picking two more off. (As means of comparison, Castine Bridges had seven pass breakups from the CB position, Carl Gettis six and Kevin Rutland five.) Prince Amukamara showed some potential as well. In all, NU's secondary was their highest-ranked unit in 2008, and gauging experience levels (and strength of schedule), you can expect those numbers to be maintained in 2009.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #106 Net Punting, #21 Punt Returns, #48 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.) - 56-57 PAT, 18-21 FGs
P Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.)
KR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 41 Returns, 23.6 Avg, 1 TD
PR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 8 Returns, 10.0 Avg

Nebraska special teams in 2009 were pretty hit-or-miss. Alex Henery was an outstanding kicker--it's hard to overstate how clutch it is to beat a main rival (Colorado) with a 57-yard field goal with two minutes remaining. In all, he made 18 of 21 FGs, and he has by far the most proven leg in the Big 12 North. He will also likely be trusted to assume punting duties in 2009--NU was pretty weak here last year, and while it's never a given that a good kicker will be a good punter, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

On the returns side of things, it looks right now as if Niles Paul will be the man. He was solid in kickoff returns, scoring a clutch return touchdown in the fourth quarter against San Jose State, right after SJSU had closed NU's lead to 14-12. Take that return out of the equation, and he still averaged 22.1 yards per return, which would have been better than average. Nate Swift was the main man in punt returns last year, but Paul returned a handful and did fine with them.

Really, if punting isn't a liability, the special teams unit could be a major asset for Nebraska in close games, particularly in terms of kicking. Henery really is a stud.

Summary

Iffy offense, solid defense, solid special teams. In a division without a breakaway favorite, Nebraska has as good a chance as anybody of coming away the winner (though playing in both Lawrence and Columbia won't help their cause).

We'll take a look at projections on Friday, but for now we'll just summarize by saying that while NU's defense could be solid, I think they're at least a year away from having rock-solid personnel at linebacker, but they'll be taking a step backwards on the defensive line and in the secondary next year. It might take a little while for all the pieces to truly come together for Pelini's defense, but he's got a good defensive mind obviously, and because of that and decent personnel, they'll certainly be in the title hunt this year. I'm just not giving them anything yet.

---

Projections on Friday.

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 22:00:05 -0000

1 - In preparation of the most emotional Senior Day EVER at Mizzou, what is your favorite unsung moment (i.e. not just "beating Kansas at Arrowhead", but something not everybody thinks or talks about) involving this year's Mizzou senior class? Doug, if you want you can just say "Chase Daniel eating boogers."

2 - If NU beats Kansas and Missouri beats KSU and ISU, the North title is Missouri's before Armageddon at Arrowhead II even takes place. How likely is this?

3 - Quick: one reason Missouri fans should be scared of the KSU game.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri
* Kansas at Nebraska
* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
* Oklahoma at Texas A&M
* Baylor at Texas
* Iowa State at Colorado

5 - Finally, who will be Kansas State's head coach in 2009?

The Beef: 1 - There was a run during the NU game last season that crystallized it all pretty well for me. I don’t remember the exact play, but Chase ended up scrambling out (as he did for a good number of yards in that game) and gained a number of yards running down the east sideline. He was eventually forced out of bounds, but kept his feet and momentum (hey…I’m a fat guy and know how hard it is to stop sometimes) and continued to run down the sidelines. He started to jump up and down and waive his hands, even I believe trying to give someone five as he went by them. That sort of passion has certainly been displayed before on our field, but he (Chase) just seemed to connect so well with the crowd at that moment. All the more interesting to me because this was a kid coming from TX who had no ties to our state or school and who gave (or was giving at the time) everything for us to change us…and he did.

2 - Obviously I think it is pretty likely Mizzou defeats ISU and kSU…am not as sure about kU losing to NU. Yes the game is in Lincoln, but I would suspect kU got a little healthy last week against kSU coming off of their tough few weeks. It is a big game for both teams, but I still see kU having more talent on the field and on the sidelines so I am thinking they go up to NU and pull off the win.

3 - Because last week happened I guess…but that is the best I can come up with. I suppose we should be a little trepidatious (not sure that it is a word) about our emotions early in the game giving kSU any sort of hope. And while I do not believe they can do anything on defense to stop us, our pass rush does need to get to Freeman.

4 - Big 12 picks!

* Kansas State at Missouri – Mizzou by a whole bunch

* Kansas at Nebraska – kU by 10-14 in the end

* Oklahoma State at Texas Tech – ooooh….good one. My first thought is let down by TTech…so I will go with that. Okie State eeks one out.

* Oklahoma at Texas A&M – Can someone tell OU the white flags being waved by the folks down there are because they are surrendering? Seriously though, good for aTm for showing some signs of life the past couple of weeks…it gets beaten out of them this week by an OU team that needs to start positioning itself in possible hopes of stealing a BCS berth should other national teams start to falter (like they have in the past).

* Baylor at Texas –I refuse to comment on this game since it appears to be this game which pushed us to the ridiculous 6:00 p.m. start time.

* Iowa State at Colorado – I refuse to comment on this game because it might set football back 75 years.

5 - The only name I have heard/seen mentioned so far would be a run at Patterson from TCU, who I think would be a great get for them (especially since he would not have to replace most of his tie collection). However, I have also seen that name floated for the Tenn opening…and let’s face it…they have more money. Seems to be a strange year for coaching openings…so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. But…if it is Ron Prince, someone better find TB and put him on suicide watch…or buy him a bunch of Mizzou apparel and a season ticket and start the conversion

The Boy: 1 - As the 2004 season was finishing its collapse, and we found ourselves down 28-0 to Kansas in the second half, I more or less stopped watching the game and started watching this cluster of players on the sidelines. Every time Mizzou did anything good at all, this group started jumping up and down and chanting and cheering...Mizzou scored to make it 28-7...then 28-14...and the cluster of players started growing. I started recognizing jersey numbers and names...#14 Patton...#5 Alexander...it was basically the entire group of redshirting freshmen. For a split second, it looked like we'd come all the way back and win that game, but when it didn't happen, I found myself thinking "If it is ever going to turn around for Gary Pinkel here, it's going to be that group of players that does it." Now...that was only half-right. Some of the biggest reasons for the turnaround--Daniel, Coffman, Hood, Christopher--didn't show up on campus until the next summer, but in that cluster of chanting freshman were guys like Tommy Saunders, and Stryker Sulak, and William Moore, and Steve Redmond, and, of course, Aaron O'Neal...a bunch of guys who made significant contributions (intended and unintended) to the program on and off the field...and without those contributions, Gary Pinkel would not be coaching in Columbia right now.

2 - Before last week, I'd have said hell yeah to the idea of NU beating KU. But now I'm not so sure. KU's defense is porous enough that NU could be able to move the ball, especially if the Fightin' Pelini's are fired up after embarrassing themselves last weekend--but I think the run-pass threat that KU has going on right now will be too much. Man oh MAN would I love to see NU knock the 'Hawks off, though.

3 - I'm just going to assume that Mizzou is going to be emotionally drained and flat for most of the first quarter, and if KSU starts the game off like they did in '06 (getting a fumble return TD on the first play and moving the ball well on the ground), then they'll at least have a fighting chance of staying in the game for a while. But...no. We're not losing this game. We're just not.

4 - Mizzou 52, KSU 16
Kansas 41, Nebraska 31
Texas Tech 35, Oklahoma State 28
Oklahoma 49, Texas A&M 27
Texas 44, Baylor 10
Colorado 1, Iowa State -1

5 - Honestly, for the long-term it might make more sense to let Ron Prince sink with the "18 senior starters, about 3 of whom are talented" ship next year and bring in a new coach with a new batch of scholarships to start from scratch in 2010. And it certainly sounds like the KSU higher-ups are (the only ones) in Prince's corner. I don't know what to think about this one. It might come down to whether they win another game this year or not...if they show well against NU and ISU, maybe he sticks around...but if they humiliate themselves again in those two games, they'll have no choice but to can him.

Doug: 1 - Chase... Daniel... eating... boogers. Yeah, yeah, that'll work quite nicely.

2 - It's a road game for Kansas this weekend, and they're 1-1 in conference road games this season... but, it happened for Missouri this season, I don't see why Kansas can't win at Nebraska on Saturday. I think KU is back on track (Thanks K-State!) and now it's a question of which Nebraska team shows up, the one that played Texas Tech tough, or the one that rolled over against Oklahoma. I have no idea. That said, I think the Big 12 North title will come down to Arrowhead.

3 - Because crazier things have happened? I don't know what it is, but Kansas is like Josh Freeman's kryptonite. I've never seen a guy be that bad against one team... especially if that one team is KU. That said, he wasn't that awful against Missouri last year, 256 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception. A lot depends on how well Lemark Brown can run the ball and take some pressure off of the throwing game, though I think KU was willing to sacrifice 3 meaningless rushing touchdowns to constantly be in Freeman's face. No matter what the school says, part of Ron Prince has to think his job is on the line, and maybe that'll change the way he preps the Wildcats for this game. They've got nothing to lose... and that's when a foe is at their most dangerous. (Or is that wounded and backed into a corner? I can never remember.)

4 - Missouri - And, after all that, I'll still go with the safe pick.
Kansas - I don't know if the game only being on pay-per-view is because NU isn't very good, or because the conference knows the entire state of Nebraska will shell out the $30 for the broadcast.
Oklahoma State - Why should anything be easy for the BCS?
Oklahoma - Seriously, this game is on TV? National TV?
Texas - I don't know if the Longhorns and Mac Brown ever get pissed off... but I still wouldn't want to be Baylor on Saturday.
Colorado - Because it's in Boulder... and because I had to pick a winner.

5 - Bob Krause. At this point, he's about as qualified to be head coach as he was to be Athletic Director for a Division I school

rptgwb: 1. Rather than just giving a blanket statement, I'll note some of my favorite moments for each player just going down the list:

Daniel - How do you choose just one?
Patton - Hearing the students explode every time Patton came on the field as a way of saying "thank you" for staying at Mizzou
Coffman - Which is YOUR favorite nunchuck?
Willy Mo - The pick at Arrowhead was huge, but I'll always remember the image of WillyMo standing up and flexing after picking off Juice in 2007
Jackson - Hearing Mike Kelly call him "the kid form Caruthersville" 900 times
Saunders - No defining moment for Mr. Dependable
Bridges - Without a doubt, the one-handed spinning pick of Reesing

There are obviously others, but that's where I'll cut the list for now.

2. Depending on which Nebraska and Kansas teams show up, it could be very likely. But Kansas appears to be getting its act together at least a little bit, while Nebraska can't exactly be overflowing with confidence right now. I think if they played 10 times, KU would win 6 or 7 times. Can NU play one of the 3 or 4 games this weekend? I don't know.

3. Because we just SURVIVED BAYLOR BY ONLY THREE POINTS.

4. Picks:
Mizzou over Kansas State by 35
Kansas over Nebraska by 10
Oklahoma over Texas A&M by 20
Texas over Baylor by 24
Colorado over Iowa State by 7
*Upset special: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech by 4

5. Jon Wee-fald? Weff-ald?

rptgwb: By the way, Kansas State this week = Homer Simpson in this clip:

Michael Atchison: 1 - Chase Daniel, as a freshman, relieving Brad Smith in a lost-cause game against Iowa State, and rallying the Tigers to victory. Think of the ripples. They lose that game (as they surely would have), they probably don’t go to a bowl game, Gary Pinkel likely gets fired, there’s turmoil in the program, and the last two years never happen.

2 - I think the odds of Nebraska beating Kansas are about one in four, making the odds of hypothetical outcome one in four point five.

3 - There is no reason for Missouri fans to be scared. In the parlance of this political season, I just can’t see KSU’s path to victory.

4 - Mizzou by 23.
Kansas by 6.
Tech by 2.
Oklahoma by 31.
Texas by 24.
Colorado by 4.

5 - I’ll say Ron Prince is the head coach in 2009, because if it’s not him, I have absolutely no idea who takes the job. Perhaps they should make a run at Phil Fulmer.

ZouDave: 1 - It's a virtual collage of greatness in my mind. From Stryker Sulak's pick 6 against Texas Tech in 2007, to Willy Mo's steamrolling of Marlon Lucky in 2007, to Tommy Saunders' raised finger in salute to his Grandfather, to Jimmy Jackson's GREAT performance in place of Temple against Texas Tech in 2007, to Ziggy Hood's mere presence, to Brock Christopher's INT against Nebraska this season, to Colin Brown destroying defenders all day long in the Cotton Bowl.....to Chase Daniel. I am going to miss that pudgy little bastard.

2 - Let's say 35%. kansas has been a bit more bipolar this year than even Mizzou has in that sometimes they look really good and sometimes they look really bad. Nebraska has looked better since we caved their faces in a few weeks ago, and I think they were a lot more pissed about the loss to ku last year than the loss to Mizzou. I think *this* is the game they've had circled all year. They're going to be pumped, both players and fans, and if ku starts slow again (which they've done on the road a couple of times) I'm not sure Nebraska gives them a window to come back. If kansas just plays their game, though, the Huskers can't keep up.

3 - Injury.

4 - Missouri by 42. I think we're going to rape this team.

kansas by 7. I think NU closes late but cannot make it happen.

Texas Tech by 14. Everyone is going to be looking for a letdown game for Tech, but I don't think OSU is quite as good as the rest of the South (their win over us not withstanding).

Oklahoma by as much as they want. I think OU ends up the South champion but they're going to keep getting style points just in case.

Texas by 24. They'll right the ship.

Iowa State by 10. 13-3.

5 - Honestly I think it will be Ron Prince, but I think he'll have brand new coordinators. Once 2010 is also a flop, they'll all be gone.

rptgwb: One moment I'd forgotten was the pick-six by WillyMo in Lubbock in 2006, one play after the Xzavie Jackson pick-six. That has to be one of my favorite moments of all time for vindictive reasons, leading into the depressing shot of the Tech girls with the "What the hell just happened... but, we're Texas Tech!" look on their faces.

That was a great night - I was at the American Airlines Center watching the Stars open the home season by beating Beef's Devils while catching glances at luxury boxes to keep up with MU/TTU.

ZouDave: Well maybe it's just me, but I'm much happier with a 6:00pm kickoff than I would have been with a 11:00am kickoff (or 11:30am). Not that I wouldn't have been there, early, and ready to go but I hate leaving KC at 6:30am to get to a football game. I find it difficult to get any kind of meaningful buzz going prior to the game when it's that early in the morning. And no, that's not my only concern, but it's nice when I can take my time during the day, leave KC around noon, have a solid few hours of tailgating time and then get to enjoy the game. I love Faurot Field at night (despite the OSU game this year).

2:30pm would have been the best, but KSU isn't a good enough opponent for us to have hoped for that.

The Beef: Personally, the 6:00 pm game time changed some of our plans and plans of friends visiting from out of town...but that is what it is. However, the fact it will be back into the 30's (very likely) during the game is going to kind of suck, and will keep some folks at home (which is always too bad)

ZouDave: I have faith in the Missouri fans. A year ago we though there was NO WAY we'd get a sellout against A&M on Senior Day with the early kickoff vs deer season but the fanbase stepped up and made that day great.

It's easy to dress warmly for games. Especially with it being Blackout Day, because everyone has black Mizzou sweatshirts already. I expect the fans to be packed starting the game, but the crowd will taper faster since we'll be up huge and it will be late and cold.

I just hope everyone that is there gets their asses into the stadium earlier than normal to see all of the Senior Day stuff. This is one we won't soon forget. I'm going to be openly weeping, there's simply no chance I won't be. I will probably hug a stranger.

The Beef: You are a bit of a crier....

ZouDave: You have no proof.

The Beef: Hmmm...I bet I could find some...

Doug: Will Dave's sister be there?

I'll hug her.

Michael Atchison: I don't mean to intrude on the festival of weeping over guys named "Chase," but would it be fair for me to note that basketball season starts with exhibitions this week, and that since we last convened, Marcus Denmon played the role of a white-hot Clarence Gilbert in the Black and Gold game?

The Beef: It is a fair note...so who is going to be present at the first exhibition game of the season tomorrow? Who plans to watch the proceedings on TV?

Michael Atchison: I forwarded my tickets to the nerdy guy on this site who does all those statistical pieces that no one reads. As soon as I'm back from Family Math Night at my daughter's school, I'll be settling in front of the TV.

The Beef: Boy...sure hope the nerdy guy goes to the game with those tickets

ZouDave: I will not be remotely present, and while it's on I will probably be working on the Baylor game highlights. I think some of you will be happy with the music choice...

ZouDave: I think I've cracked your code....

The Boy: Let's just say that the nerdy guy hasn't actually received the tickets in the mail yet, therefore the nerdy guy has no obligation just yet.

And the nerdy guy prefers this picture instead:

Michael Atchison: Nerdy guy need not fret. The tickets were placed in the U.S. Mail in Kansas City on Monday. They should arrive in Columbia today, or tomorrow at the absolute latest.

The Boy: And by the way...what the hell is Family Math Night???

ZouDave: In Independence it would be Family Meth Night

Michael Atchison: It’s where families from the elementary school gather to eat hot dogs and play math games to stimulate the young people’s interest in the subject. Tell me how much you want to trade lives with me.

The Beef: Does not sound all bad…I mean…I like hot dogs…what kind of condiments are we talking about though? Anything fancy? (cheese? Onions?)

Michael Atchison: Little packets of mustard and relish.

The Beef: Eh…I’ve been to worse outings…

Doug: How are the hot dogs prepared? On the rollers? Or boiled?

Try to hold out for the rollers.

ZouDave: Worst. Topic. Ever.

Michael Atchison: You guys asked. I never indicated it would be interesting.

The Beef:

ZouDave:

(An hour later...)

The Boy: I'd just like to remind everybody that the last time we had a Roundtable this lackluster, Mizzou lost. LOST!

rptgwb: You guys have no idea how scared I get on Roundtable days when I'm in class and I click an email with the "paper clip" attachment graphic next to it.

It's not easy to explain to people why I just opened an email with a huge picture of Rupaul in the middle of a lecture. Or any other time for that matter.

Doug: Oh, well now you're just going to encourage them.

The Boy: This could get ugly.

The Beef: So…um…does this change things? From GoPowerCat.com

Kansas State football coach Ron Prince is expected to announce his resignation during a 4 p.m. teleconference Wednesday sources have told GoPowercat.com. More news as this story develops. Prince was hired as K-State head prior to the 2006 season, and collected a record of 16-18 during his tenure as head coach. K-State is scheduled to play at Missouri on Saturday

Doug: Holy f...

The Beef: Yeah…that ought to spice things up

Doug: It ain't exactly Fulmer... but I never expected Prince to throw himself on his own sword like this.

The Beef: Or be pushed onto the sword bolstered by some nice compensation?

Doug: I don't know. K-State isn't exactly over-loaded with big money donors. I imagine he was offered the buy-out money and maybe next year's salary on top of that, but I highly doubt there's some comically large check with a comically large dollar figure sitting by his door right now.

The Beef: I thought there was one name I remember reading that they needed to get on board…maybe something with a V? I could be making that up though

Doug: Are you thinking of Varney's Bookstore?

Seriously though, I just pulled up the list of $50,000+ donors for the K-State Athletic Scholarship fund. There is a Dennis Von Waaden on there. Ring any bells?

The Beef: No…let me go back and try to find it…was probably on TB’s site

The Beef: From TB…

He needs to get the big boosters, primarily the Vaniers, on his side.

Doug: Oh yeah, I think that's the name on their football complex that's attached to the stadium.

The Beef: Ah…then yes…you would want to get those folks in your boat

ZouDave: Just finally able to jump in here...this is crazy! Was this his secret plan?

rptgwb: Did anyone else notice that this is two years in a row that the opposing coach has been put on the "resignation" block a few days before the Mizzou senior day game?

First Franchione in 2007, now Prince in 2008. Gene Chizik better watch himself in 2009.

ZouDave: That goes in line with us playing against what's-his-nuts up at ISU in 2006 for his last game, and against Bill Snyder in 2005 in his last game. Neither of those went well for us.

Doug: Otherwise known as Dan "What's-his-nuts" McCarney.

ZouDave: That's him

rptgwb: By the way, to refer back to my favorite Willy Mo moment from the 2006 Tech game, I finally got around to grabbing a (low-res) screenshot:

THAT is what Mizzou football does.

The Boy: The best thing about that game was, Graham Harrell had the exact same look on his face after Moore's pick. Leach had to take him out of the game for a series because he was so shell-shocked.

ZouDave: for what it's worth, I like these Texas Tech girls better:

The Beef: Good lord the one on the bottom right is a whore….

ZouDave: you know her?

The Beef: Nope….just guessing…it would be like passing Jenna Haze on the street…I might not know it was her…but I would draw the same conclusion…

And with that…we should probably wrap this up

ZouDave: especially if you're gonna be with Jenna Haze....

The Boy: He's here all week, folks.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:00:05 -0000

So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step. I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing. Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week. Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs. You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently? If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

Missouri		Okie State
	% Close = 100.0%
53.8%	Field Position % *	46.2%
81.4%	Leverage % **	65.3%
	TOTAL
70	Plays	72
28.09	EqPts	26.73
55.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.37
0.958	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.788

	RUSHING
7.46	EqPts	13.24
56.3%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.47	PPP	0.32
1.029	S&P	0.672
2.83	Line Yards/carry	2.28

	PASSING
20.63	EqPts	13.48
57.7%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.40	PPP	0.45
0.974	S&P	0.949

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.2%	Success Rate	44.7%
0.45	PPP	0.39
1.077	S&P	0.834

	PASSING DOWNS
23.1%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.21	PPP	0.34
0.438	S&P	0.701

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	3
8.85	Points Lost	8.28
6.09	Points Given	5.78
14.94	Total T/O Pts	14.06
-0.88	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.88

So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
They split in turnover margin...
They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
They won the field-position battle...
They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
And they lost. Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge. Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin). OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers). Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled. They were fast, and they didn't miss. That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

Let's go into a little more detail...

S&P by Quarter

Q1
Missouri: 53.8% / 0.36 PPP / 0.894 S&P
Oklahoma State: 59.1% / 0.37 PPP / 0.956 S&P

Q2
Missouri: 45.0% / 0.39 PPP / 0.843 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.10 PPP / 0.428 S&P

Q3
Missouri: 65.0% / 0.43 PPP / 1.082 S&P
Oklahoma State: 35.7% / 0.85 PPP / 1.203 S&P

Q4
Missouri: 58.8% / 0.41 PPP / 0.998 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.29 PPP / 0.619 S&P

You see a nice spike in Mizzou's numbers in the second half, once they basically gave up on the run and focus on quick short passing as their new "running game". Meanwhile, OSU did a good job of gameplanning (success in Q1 and Q3), while the Mizzou defense made very good adjustments (success in Q2 and Q4).

S&P by Down

1st Down
Missouri: 60.5% / 0.41 PPP / 1.014 S&P
Oklahoma State: 36.4% / 0.25 PPP / 0.618 S&P

2nd Down
Missouri: 60.9% / 0.50 PPP / 1.111 S&P
Oklahoma State: 52.0% / 0.51 PPP / 1.034 S&P

3rd Down
Missouri: 22.2% / 0.11 PPP / 0.332 S&P
Oklahoma State: 38.5% / 0.40 PPP / 0.780 S&P

Just a staggering job by OSU of preventing Mizzou from having success where they're used to it the most--3rd downs (and, somewhat consequently, Passing Downs). Mizzou was as consistent as always on 1st and 2nd downs, but the clutch plays belonged to OSU. Yet another reason why I wish we could play this team again...like, right now.

Projections vs Performance

Here, we'll look at actual performance compared to what was projected in last week's BTBS preview.

Mizzou Rushing

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.6 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 19.0
Actual Performance: 7.5

Chase Daniel: 2.97 EqPts, 100.0% success rate, 1.595 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.49 EqPts, 25.0% success rate, 0.561 S&P
Jimmy Jackson: 1.38 EqPts on 1 carry
Jeremy Maclin: 0.62 EqPts on 2 carries

Though it was on Passing Downs where Mizzou had its biggest failures, chances are that failure in the running game caused a lot of those Passing Downs, especially in the first half. Chase Daniel did well at eating away chunks of yards when given the opportunity, and you could make the case that he should have run the ball a bit more, but seeing how dead his arms and legs seemed to be in the 4th quarter already, he probably took enough hits as is. But the game hinged at least somewhat in OSU's ability to shoot the gaps at just the right times and take away Derrick Washington's effectiveness.

Mizzou Passing

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 23.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 28.0
Actual Performance: 20.6

Jeremy Maclin: 5.16 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.645 S&P
Chase Coffman: 4.91 EqPts, 63.6% success rate, 1.083 S&P
Tommy Saunders: 3.44 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.689 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.78 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 1.111 S&P
Danario Alexander: 2.48 EqPts on 2 catches
Earl Goldsmith: 1.32 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.441 S&P
Jared Perry: 0.53 EqPts on 2 catches
Andrew Jones: 0.49 EqPts on 1 catch

Once again, both the projections and my own projections were too optimistic about Mizzou's offensive performance. Credit OSU's gameplan for a lot of that.

OSU Rushing

Avg Projected OSU Rushing Output: 13.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 14.0
Actual Performance: 13.2

The projections were actually a smidge optimistic about OSU's offensive performance too. Just imagine how good these numbers would look for Mizzou without Hunter's one long TD run. If if's and but's were candy and nuts...

OSU Passing

Avg Projected OSU Passing Output: 17.7
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 15.0
Actual Performance: 13.5

Credit where it's due: Mizzou's pass defense came to play. They were hitting hard, and they were two plays away from a wonderful performance. Of course, both of those plays went for TDs--one an obvious miscommunication on the play-action TD; the other, a confusing play where there ended up being two OSU players (Bryant & Davis) and one MU player (Ricks) in the same part of the endzone. Unfortunately, Davis made the catch. Regardless, Mizzou's pass defense played better than the numbers suggested they would, and this further reinforces the fact that it wasn't the Mizzou defense that cost them this game.

Mizzou Defense

Because of the solid defensive play, I thought I'd show you the breakdown for "successful" defensive tackles...

Sean Weatherspoon: 4.5 successful tackles (69.2% success rate)
Justin Garrett: 3.5 (46.7%)
William Moore: 3.0 (42.9%)
Jaron Baston: 2.5 (100.0%)
Tommy Chavis: 2.5 (100.0%)
Brock Christopher: 2.5 (71.4%)
Carl Gettis: 2.5 (55.6%)

Three members of the secondary with a success rate above 40% is just weird. But this does further support that our secondary a) hits hard and b) supports the run defense wonderfully.

Summary

For regular football fans, this game was a treat. Big plays were made on both sides of the ball. All the big-name offensive players (Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, Robinson, Hunter, Bryant) made plays at one point or another; all of Mizzou's defensive playmakers made some big hits and stops; OSU had guys like Jeremiah Price and Orie Lemon making names for themselves. It was a fun game...unfortunately, the result left something to be desired.

If nothing else, the BTBS stats point to what we basically already knew: Mizzou played well...except for when it didn't. (Brilliant analysis, I know.) The Mizzou Offense clicked along as always on Non-Passing Downs...but for really only the second time in the last 20 games, they were horrific on Passing Downs. The Mizzou receivers played well...except for the dropped passes (which don't really work themselves into BTBS numbers). The Mizzou defense played great...aside from three specific plays.

All these things point squarely to the "It just wasn't our day" truism, but that doesn't make the loss any easier to accept. Mizzou fans should take comfort in the fact that the Tigers still match up relatively well against Texas, and they're still clearly (to my eyes) a Top 10 team. The problem is...5-1 isn't nearly as promising as 6-0, and the Tigers quite obviously need to beat Texas to keep their national title hopes (and possibly Chase Daniel's Heisman hopes) alive.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

1 votes

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

3 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

5 votes

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

3 votes

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

10 votes

No MVP--we lost!

66 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Rock M Roundtable!

Bill C. — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:00:05 -0000

I forgot today was Wednesday (it's been that kind of week), but ZouDave came through with Roundtable questions. Hoooorraaaaaay, ZouDave!

1 - On a scale of 1-14, with 1 being "not even a little" and 14 being "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy", how bad does Mediacom's service suck in the Columbia area?

2 - Which was it, a bad game from Mizzou or a good game from Buffalo?

3 - Now that your team's non-conference schedule is complete (see what I did there, Doug?), what are you most happy about? What are you most concerned with?

4 - It's a bye week. What will you be doing on Saturday in place of watching your favorite team?

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado at Florida State
Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State
Virginia Tech at Nebraska
TCU at Oklahoma
Troy at Oklahoma State
Army at Texas A&M

The Beef: 1 - As an out-of-towner, I just do not know. I had Mediacom for a few years back in 2000-2003, and honestly, it was never terrible. Back then I would give it an 11 maybe.

2 - I think Buffalo is a decent team and a program slowly building themselves up (as long as they can find someone as good as Gill when he leaves)…and I think Mizzou played a decent game. We have all seen the stats of what Mizzou did. Inopportune fumbles, a once-a-decade play and a roughing the kicker penalty, and POOF!!...the game goes from about 59-10 maybe to 42-21.

3 - I am not overly concerned about a lot…just curious (I suppose) to see what sort of defensive scheme we settle into with (hopefully) a healthy V. Alexander and Willy Mo.

4 - I MIGHT actually have to work on Saturday morning, which kinda messes up my plan of laundry and drinking…I am holding out hope I don’t need to come in.

5 - Colorado at Florida State – Colorado…seems strange but I don’t think FSU is all that good…nor do I think CU has arrived but I think their offense is improved.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State – kSU by…eh…a couple of TD’s

Virginia Tech at Nebraska – NU had better win this game

TCU at Oklahoma – OU, but it might be close in the first half since I like what TCU does defensively

Troy at Oklahoma State – Okie State runs for at least 350 yards

Army at Texas A&M – Can I pick another CFL-style 1-0?

The Boy: 1 - Eleventy Billion. But at least I'm paying half as much for it as I used to. Great things happen when you threaten to leave.

2 - Yes.

Honestly, as hard as I try, I just can't get too worked up about the Buffalo game. It was a "stuff happens" game, and we still won by 3 TD's. But we do need to give credit to Turner Gill and his team--they had a solid gameplan, they made the most out of little offensive firepower, and they tackled really, really, really well.

3 - I'm happy that we get a bye week here (and Nebraska doesn't), and I'm happy that the team has something to be annoyed about (a lackluster performance against UB) during the break.

4 - I wish I could say I'll be participating in THE FIRST ANNUAL ROCK M NATION BYE WEEK OPEN THREAD!!!!1!!!!!, but instead I'll be picking up the in-laws from the KC airport. I'd complain about it, but I'm getting free Bryants out of the deal.

5 - CU/FSU: I'm not sure CU's ready to win this game yet. FSU's offense is HORRIBLE, but their defense is fast enough to give CU problems. CU got 14 points out of their scripted plays against WV, then didn't score again till overtime. This has 12-9 (4 FG's to 3) written all over it, and while I hope CU wins to help the Big 12 out, I'm going with the home (approximately) team.

ULL/KSU: One more reason to hate Ron Prince: he's the king of stupid Holtzian coachspeak. I caught bits of his weekly press conference on ESPNU this morning, and to hear him talk, you'd think ULL was the second coming of Barry Switzer's Sooner teams with their ability to run the ball. KSU wins despite their coach, 48-17.

VT/NU: I've been talking down VT for the last month, and while they certainly benefitted last Saturday by UNC's QB (TJ Yates) getting hurt when UNC was up comfortably, the fact is VT is in position to win their division again despite a massive rebuilding situation there. That said, I think highly enough of NU to think that they can overcome a really well-coached VT team. The Sea of Red even got to Chase Daniel the first time he experienced it, and it'll get to Tyrod Taylor too. NU wins, 27-17.

TCU/OU: TCU's got their typical "defense first, defense second" team, but...OU's a machine. OU wins 44-10.

Troy/OSU: Troy's competitive, but OSU will beat them by more than tOSU beat them last week. We'll say 38-14 Pokes.

Army/ATM: Good god I hope ATM wins this game...just for the sake of the Big 12. But being that their offense is more stagnant than (insert something really stagnant here), it won't be tremendously easy. We'll say ATM wins 24-6.

Doug: Oh, great... as if this thread wasn't long enough for G-Mail already.

1 - Can't say I've ever had to deal with Mediacom before... but Jenna Haze on Ecstasy? That's way more than 14.

2 - Like Seth says... The University AT Buffalo appears to be a program on the rise and Turner Gill may have actually been a good hire in the long run for Nebraska. However, for this game, I think it showed some of the weaknesses facing the Missouri defense and the fact you can't always come out in the first half and roll everybody.

3 - I'm most happy about Todd Reesing, he's still a stud and still doing nice things running the offense. The interception against South Florida was a bad play call given the situation they were in, so I can't put blame on him for that. I'm worried about the running game and the defense from time to time. There's not one running back that can clear through a defender like Brandon McAnderson could last year, and that's what's ultimately hurting them the most. The defense is still spotty at times, so they need to focus and game plan during the bye week to solve those problems.

4 - I have the Jenna Haze box set... who's coming over?

5 - Colorado... man Florida State is awful.

Kansas State... hey, isn't this the old Fresno State game?

Neb...VaT...Neb...VaT... I can't pick one... whoever it is will be by a field goal or less.

Oklahoma... is TCU trying to get Tomlinson's eligibility re-instated for this game?

Oklahoma State... yeah, this one may set some offensive records.

Army... when in doubt, pick the original military academy.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: 1. The only thing I can contribute is that the NBC affiliate in Austin is pulling it's programming on Time Warner Cable over a fee dispute and both sides are blaming each other and the end result is we may not get the Office in which case I will go on a rampage and burn this whole damn town down I swear to Jesus on a Pogostick I will.

2. Bad game for Mizzou. I'm more vexed than most. The score ended up fine, but turnovers, penalties, and....gasp... punting? These are not the makings of a confidence game. I was unhappy. Yes, I'd rather it be this game than next, and yes, everyone has them, but it's not going to keep me from grumbling. The team just needs to make sure it gets focused before Nebraska because Lincoln won't be a cakewalk like the last two.

3. I haven't looked at numbers, but it feels like we're committing more penalties, and that was a huge boon to us last year, the lack of them. I'm most happy with the fact that our offense honestly looks like it can compensate for almost any opponent's offense. But we need to figure out how much of our defense is "bend don't break" and how much is "attack" and get both of them working efficiently.

4. I'll either be at the Austin City Limits Festival or on the game thread, screaming about Lou Holtz.

5. All the big 12 teams win and cover and win pretty easily... except for Nebraska. Because they're goat f--kers.

The Boy: For the record, we had 2 penalties and 1 punt. Methinks the standards around here may be a little high. :-)

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: I know, I know, and I left at half to go to the store for the sick wife.

But still. Even the announcers commented that the Missouri guys were flat, just going through the motions. It's not like I can blame them. But seriously, the Nebraska game is one of the absolutely most important things that will happen for me personally this season. I'm okay with a loss to Texas on the road, and that one we could even survive and still make a BCS bowl-- though I think we'll win -- but I seriously want to put 70 on Nebraska in Lincoln.

The Beef: Well…I will be honest…I think the announcers were wrong as well.

The Boy: We had 2 penalties, 1 punt, put up 600 yards and gave up less than 300. The only problem with crispness was that our hands weren't crisp enough to hold onto the ball. Trust me, I'm all about worrying about Nebraska--with the 8pm kickoff, I'll be a complete freaking (well-lubricated) mess by the time the game starts--but the Buffalo game makes me fear NU no more than I did (or didn't) before.

Doug: I really didn't need to hear how you get ready for a game.

Michael Atchison: 1 - I don’t even know what we’re talking about with regard to Mediacom’s service in Columbia (I’m a Time Warner customer in Kansas City), so on the scale of 1 – 14, I’ll give it a Q.

2 - It was a bad game (relatively) from Mizzou. When Coffman, Maclin and Perry all turn it over, and when their best drive is sustained by Mizzou’s penalties, you know it’s about Mizzou’s lapses. Luckily, everything I’ve seen from this team tells me it was an aberration. I’m glad they got it out of their system.

3 - I’m most happy about coming out of it 4-0 with most of the team in good health. I’m most concerned about the play of our corners, especially Castine Bridges, who seems to spend a lot of time not knowing where the ball is.

4 - I’ll be at Disney World!

5 - CU shocks FSU by 6.

K-State by 9.

Hokies beat the Corn by 8.

Oklahoma by 31.

Okie State by 22.

A&M by ½ point.

The Boy: I just realized I didn't answer the "most concerned" part. The biggest concern has got to be the fact that we're still giving up a big play a game in the passing game. Granted, that will improve with the return of William Moore, and Castine Bridges began to play better the other day, we still don't have a 100% reliable option as the CB opposite Carl Gettis, and Delstin Garward continues to be decent but shaky at SS.

Oh, and I don't think we can use "shock" to describe CU potentially beating FSU--FSU losing just isn't shocking anymore.

ZouDave:

ZouDave: 1 - Having only lived in Columbia for a single year of my life, and that was in 1994-1995, I obviously don't know for sure. But this question serves 2 purposes well. 1) it gets Jenna Haze mentioned AGAIN, proving we are the sports authorities on Jenna Haze. 2) it's a nod to The Boy and his problems. Little did I know his problem was actually him being forgetful, not him having service issues.

2 - I unfortunately didn't get to see the game because I had to go to a wedding in Braymer, MO (home of Colin Brown). I listened to the entire first half, and spent a lot of it screaming at the radio, and then followed the 2nd half through text messages from Gabe DeArmond. It was great, because the wedding I was at was of a Mizzou alum and probably 1/3 of the guests were either Mizzou alums or Mizzou fans. Everyone kept coming to me for updates, which was fun. It sounds to me, though, that this was neither a good game for Buffalo nor a bad game for Mizzou. Buffalo was the recipient of a few big mistakes from our team, but we also dominated them on offense and kept their offense from doing what they wanted to do. I think it was just another game for Mizzou, and we happened to turn it over 3x more than we had all season.

3 - I am most happy about Derrick Washington. I was hoping he would be this good, but I didn't think it would actually happen. Having a running game like this with our passing attack is on the verge of unfair. I'm most concerned with our lack of consistent pass rush from the front 4. That seemed to be a MAJOR strength last year with all of our defensive linemen getting multiple sacks and pressures on the season. So far, we seem to only bring consistent pressure if we commit a safety and linebacker to a blitz, which leaves our secondary a bit exposed. I think, as Beef said, a healthy Van Alexander and Willy Mo will help that a lot.

4 - I'm going to be playing Rock Band 2 with a few friends for much of the day, but we're going to pick out a couple of games to watch on TV as the day goes along.

5 - Colorado at Florida State - I'm going to take FSU, simply because they're at home. I think these teams are evenly matched.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State - KSU better win this by 30, but I bet they only win by about 17.

Virginia Tech at Nebraska - Nebraska is going to win this, maybe even with relative ease, and force their way into the Top 25 in time for us to ruin their season once again.

TCU at Oklahoma - Love the Horned Frogs, but this will NOT be a repeat of 2005. OU by 28.

Troy at Oklahoma State - OSU out for revenge. Cowboys by 30.

Army at Texas A&M - ugly, ugly game. I'll pick A&M, but by less than 7.

Is anybody making the trip to Lincoln? I wish I could, but money is tight.

MizzouRobot Ridiculous Matt: Sadly, no. I had to save up... FOR MY TRIP TO KC FOR THE BORDER WAR! BOOYAH!

ZouDave: You have chosen...

...wisely.

The Beef: Nope…been there once…was enough for me…the only road game right now I am looking at is Iowa State…but I should be in KC for the game after the kU game

ZouDave: yeah one of the reasons money is tight is because I'm pretty well invested in going not only to the ku game at Arrowhead, but also the Big XII Championship game. Yes, I'm being that presumptuous.

I have my doubts I'll be able to make it to the Bowl Game this year, with the catch being that if by some MIRACLE the Tigers appear in the Rose Bowl then dad and I will be going to that. Since my sister lives in Thousand Oaks, CA, that's close enough that it's an easy drive and we wouldn't have to pay for a hotel. Airfare and ticket isn't a bad trip.

The Beef: The wife and I are hoping to make a bowl trip, but as she is now a teacher, time off for her will be tough since many of the games we might likely end up in are now on weekdays and outside of the normal school vacation. But…we shall see I suppose

Michael Atchison: Made the Lincoln trip in 2006, but I’m skipping this time. This coming weekend marks my fifth straight on the road. I’m looking forward to spending a Saturday at home, watching on the tube.

ZouDave: In a not remotely related story...

rptgwb: Oh my Lord, I just opened this email in class and very nearly had to explain why I was doubling over laughing when I saw the phrase "Jenna Haze on Ecstasy."

1. It's close to a 14. If the question is how much more could Mediacom suck? To pull an idea from This is Spinal Tap: "The answer would be, none, none more suck."

2 - How about both? Great gameplan by Buffalo, shoddy ball protection by Mizzou.

3. I'm most happy that Mizzou stayed at 4-0 without any major injuries (nagging injury to Willy Mo and the injury to Kurtis Gregory aside). I am a tad concerned about the pass defense, but I'm certainly not losing sleep over it at this point.

4. In addition to the Bye Week Open Thread, I'll be out covering Mizzou volleyball against SIU-Edwardsville.

5 - Big 12 picks!

Colorado over Florida State by 7
Kansas State over Louisiana-Lafayette by 17
Nebraska over Va Tech by 4
Oklahoma over TCU by 28
Oklahoma State over Troy by 14
Texas A&M over Army by 10

ZouDave: So you haven't gotten to see a single game, even on TV, yet Atch? Yikes. I would have died by now.

The Boy: I assume he's counting the three home games (and maybe the Illinois game, if he went) as "weekends on the road".

Michael Atchison: I’ve seen some games at night, but not many, and I don’t think I’ve seen one in its entirety. And I won’t get to see any this weekend as I stroll around the Magic Kingdom. But I will watch many, many games on October 4.

ZouDave: Oh, that makes a helluva lot more sense.

Disregard my incompetence.

You've planned your trip well, that's good.

Doug plans his trip to Disney World for the first week of June in 2009. Let's see how long it takes someone to get that one.

Michael Atchison: Yes, indeed, I’ve been to every game thus far, none of which have been where I live.

Doug: I assume you already have that date circled on your calendar.

Dave, are you already cutting up your jeans for hot-jorts?

ZouDave: assless chaps, baby...nothing butt the best!

Doug: That's what HE said.

ZouDave: Let's see if we can "re-rail" this thing.

I was talking to a couple of friends earlier this week about projected stats. Just for fun, here's Mizzou:

Chase Daniel - 303/399, 4236 passing yards, 36 passing TD, 3 INT, 42 attempts, 222 rushing yards

Derrick Washington - 159 attempts, 1082 rushing yards, 24 Rushing TD, 21 catches, 238 receiving yards, 3 Receiving TD

Chase Coffman - 84 catches, 1138 yards, 9 TD

Jeremy Maclin - 78 catches, 1174 yards, 12 TD

Tommy Saunders - 57 catches, 924 yards, 6 TD

Jared Perry - 48 catches, 810 yards, 6 TD

That's early 90's Houston Oilers disgusting right there. We'd have a very hard time reproducing that on NCAA 09 on the 360. Obviously, this doesn't take into account Danario Alexander's addition to the lineup, but just assume even if Saunders and Perry each drop by 1/3 and give those numbers to Danario it's still just a ridiculous offense. And these numbers don't include a likely Big XII Championship Game or Bowl Game!

(Two hours later...)

The Boy: Yeah, that re-railed nothing.

ZouDave: My back hurts from carrying your ass all day, I can't do everything!

Doug: That's what...never mind.

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:15:09 -0000

We're trying out a couple of new figures today...please try to contain your excitement...

Missouri		Buffalo
	% Close = 81.21%
63.5%	Field Position % *	36.5%
82.4%	Leverage % **	65.3%
	TOTAL
74	Plays	75
39.41	EqPts	18.59
67.6%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.53	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.25
1.208	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.608

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
66	Plays	55
37.93	EqPts	14.84
69.7%	Success Rate	34.5%
0.57	PPP	0.27
1.272	S&P	0.615

	RUSHING
13.05	EqPts	3.41
62.1%	Success Rate	29.0%
0.45	PPP	0.11
1.071	S&P	0.400
3.68	Line Yards/carry	1.45

	PASSING
26.36	EqPts	15.19
71.1%	Success Rate	40.9%
0.59	PPP	0.35
1.297	S&P	0.754

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
72.1%	Success Rate	42.9%
0.58	PPP	0.28
1.297	S&P	0.709

	PASSING DOWNS
46.2%	Success Rate	23.1%
0.33	PPP	0.19
0.792	S&P	0.417

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	2
9.23	Points Lost	6.95
4.47	Points Given	2.92
13.70	Total T/O Pts	9.87
-3.83	Turnover Pts Margin	+3.83

* Field Position % = an attempt to get at the field position battle. This basically says that there were a total of 74 plays run in opponents' field position, and Mizzou ran 63.5% of them (47) to Buffalo's 36.5% (27).

** Leverage % = the % of a team's total plays that were Non-Passing Downs. Mizzou ran 74 total plays, and 61 of them were Non-Passing Downs. 61/74 = 82.4%. The higher the number, the better an offense was at staying out of Passing Downs and awkward situations.

So what do these numbers tell us? Basically the same thing that our eyes did--that Mizzou statistically dominated, but Buffalo was good at a) holding onto the ball (75 plays was more than I thought they ran...especially considering how generally unsuccessful they were) and b) ripping the ball out of Mizzou's hands. Kenji Jackson's game-ending INT helped Mizzou in the Turnover Points Margin, but in the end turnovers kept the Fightin' Turner Gills in the game.

One thing our eyes may not have seen was just how unsuccessful Buffalo was at running the ball. They had some success with the toss sweeps at times, but let's just say that anytime Mizzou allows a 0.400 S&P on the ground, I'll take it. Buffalo was just good enough at passing to move the chains, but their lack of big-play potential (sans the one long TD on the double-move) killed them. To beat Mizzou you have to a) force turnovers and b) put up as many easy points as possible. Buffalo succeeded at (a), but not at (b), and that's why they still lost by 21.

One more thing: a 67.6% success rate is just sick. To date, Mizzou's been both efficient and explosive. Buffalo tackled wonderfully, and that limited Mizzou's explosiveness (even Mizzou's biggest gain--the bomb to Tommy Saunders--was shorter than it could have been because of good tackling), but they could do nothing to Mizzou's efficiency. Efficiency was why Tim Tebow ran away with the Heisman last year, and it's why Chase Daniel is threatening to do the same (though granted, we're only one-third through the regular season).

Rushing

Derrick Washington: 7.12 EqPts (66.7% success rate, 1.062 S&P)
Jeremy Maclin: 3.54 EqPts (on 2 carries)
Jimmy Jackson: 1.43 EqPts (on 3 carries)
Chase Daniel: 0.68 EqPts (25.0% success rate, 0.420 S&P)
De'Vion Moore: 0.28 EqPts (on 2 carries)

Again, Buffalo limited Mizzou's explosiveness, but Washington was still efficient as hell.

Receiving

Jeremy Maclin: 8.41 EqPts (92.9% success rate, 1.529 S&P)
Chase Coffman: 6.52 EqPts (80.0% success rate, 1.452 S&P)
Tommy Saunders: 4.88 EqPts (100% success rate, 2.220 S&P)
Danario Alexander: 3.43 EqPts (on 1 catch)
Derrick Washington: 1.24 EqPts (100% success rate, 1.413 S&P)
Jared Perry: 0.97 EqPts (on 2 catches)
Andrew Jones: 0.91 EqPts (on 2 catches)

My one qualm here (aside from the fumbles): not enough action for the freshmen. Andrew Jones is already proficient at the 8-yard underneath pass, and a reliable option like that is going to be important when we hand the keys to Blaine Gabbert next year, but the WRs--Jackson, Egnew, Kemp--have seen the field, but haven't seen any balls their way in the last two weeks. It's clear who Chase Daniel is most comfortable throwing the ball to, and I guess if teams aren't going to sell out to take the ball out of Maclin and Coffman's hands, then it's hard to complain about them getting pass after pass. But I do hope that at least one of the freshmen--probably Jackson--works his way into Daniel's rotation.

Defense

Successful Tackles

Sean Weatherspoon - 7.0 (0.5 sack)
Brock Christopher - 5.5
Ziggy Hood - 2.0 (2 sacks)
Castine Bridges - 2.0 (0.5 sack)
Tommy Chavis - 1.5 (1 sack)
Kenji Jackson - 1.5 (1 INT)
Hardy Ricks - 1.5
Stryker Sulak - 1.0
Terrell Resonno - 1.0

% of plays made by...

Defensive Line: 22.1%
Linebackers: 42.3%
Secondary: 35.6%

Anytime your secondary is making less than 40% of your tackles, your opponent probably isn't scoring many points. That's some crazy-good work by the LBs.
Brock Christopher picked the wrong time to have a great game--he was completely overshadowed by 'Spoon.
Way to prove yourself, Kenji Jackson. I'm going out on a limb and predicting you to be a 3-year starter.
Castine Bridges played well--he made some nice run-support tackles, got himself half a sack, and didn't get burned deep--that was Kevin Rutland, who didn't do much of anything against UB.
Ziggy Hood is becoming more disruptive by the week.

Summary

Not sure what else to say here. The defense played well, the offense put up good numbers...this was a total blowout without the fumbles. And even with the fumble explosion, Mizzou's still only averaging one fumble per game. And nobody's fumbled twice. (And knock on wood*, but the biggest "holding onto the ball" question mark coming into the season--Derrick Washington--has yet to lay the ball on the ground.)

* Seriously, knock on wood. Right now. Do it.

In other words, unless it happens again, I'm fully confident in calling this a "stuff happens" kind of game. And anytime you can win a "stuff happens" game by 3 TDs, you're doing alright.

This obviously wasn't quite as statistically dominant a performance as the Nevada game was, and Mizzou still managed to give up one deep ball, which is a smidge disconcerting, but the overall defensive numbers have rounded into shape quite well. 'Spoon is playing himself into the first two rounds of the draft, Brock Christopher is as good a 'second fiddle' LB as there is in the Big 12, teams still can't throw at Carl Gettis, Ziggy Hood is improving, Tommy Chavis continues to be the most underrated defensive player in the Big 12 North...oh yeah, and some guy named William Moore should be almost totally healthy in two weeks. I have two nagging complaints, which really isn't many: 1) I'll say it again--we're still giving up one deep ball a game, and 2) Stryker Sulak has more or less disappeared since the Illinois game--it's time for him to step up once again.

This is the perfect time for a bye week. Time to rest, work on fumbling and secondary communication, get healthy, and prepare for the fact that Nebraska is going to give us 100% of what they've got in two weeks.

Poll

Who was this week's statistical MVP? (Seems like the same candidates every week...)

Chase Daniel (71.1% passing success rate, 26.36 EqPts)

65 votes

Derrick Washington (8.36 total EqPts, 20+ touches)

0 votes

Jeremy Maclin (9.84 total EqPts)

1 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (7 successful tackles, 19 total tackles, 0.5 sack)

24 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 16:30:04 -0000

It's Thursday, so you know what that means...BTBS Day!! At some point in the season, I'll be able to start using 2008 '+' numbers, but the +'s need quite a decent sample size to be even remotely accurate, so for now I'm still going with the "2007 #'s + adjustments" method.

Mizzou-Nevada Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 10.78
Projection #1: 19.27
Nevada Rushing Defense EqPts+: 132.50
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 12.23

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 15.75

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Washington > Temple in my eyes, and if Nevada sells out to stop the pass, look out.)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.41
Projection #1: 17.06
Nevada Passing Defense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 14.58

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 15.82

Adjusted for 2008: 19.00 (Mizzou's offense is harder to stop than Texas Tech because of both the running game and the use of tight ends. Tech may have a Jeremy Maclin equivalent--okay, better--in Michael Crabtree, but they don't have a Chase Coffman equivalent.)

Nevada Rushing

Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts+: 133.67
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 11.08
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
Nevada Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.49
Projection #2: 9.53

Projected Nevada Rushing Output: 10.31

Adjusted for 2008: 7.00 (So far, Mizzou's been sturdy against the run, and combined with the loss of Luke Lippincott, UNR should find it hard to move the ball on the ground.)

Nevada Passing

Nevada Passing Offense EqPts+: 126.17
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 15.32
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
Nevada Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 12.58
Projection #2: 8.92

Projected Nevada Passing Output: 12.12

Adjusted for 2008: 14.00 (Nevada's passing game is inconsistent, but pretty decent at the deep ball. Until Mizzou slows down a passing game, we have to give the edge to the opponent here.)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 38, Nevada 21

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nevada 17

Special Teams

Nevada K Brett Jaekle is pretty decent. He missed two FGs last week, but he went 16-for-21 last year and is a decent option. New punter Brad Langley has done a bang-up job so far, averaging 46.9 yards per punt. One problem, though: in two games, Nevada's had a punt blocked and a punt returned for TD. You don't want to have weaknesses in your punting game when you come to Columbia. The return game for Nevada has been more or less a wash this year so far--Dwayne Sanders hasn't had many opportunities to return punts, and Brandon Fragger's been decent but not spectacular in a handful of kickoff returns. Two problems: 1) Nevada's settling for too many FGs (I'll address that below), and 2) Jeremy Maclin returns punts for Mizzou.

And once again, Mizzou has Jeff Wolfert--Nevada doesn't. Never in my life have I taken a 45-yard FG for granted (KNOCK ON WOOD), but that's where we've gotten with Wolfert.

Key Players: Nevada

QB Colin Kaepernick

I hate being predictable, but you have to put Kaepernick at the top of the list. Luke Lippincott is out, and while Nevada's other RBs--Vai Taua, Brandon Fragger--are at the very least competent (Taua might eventually turn out to be as productive as Lippincott), LL's absence does put more pressure on Kaepernick to create on his own. So far he's responded with decent stats--386 passing yards, 143 rushing yards in two games--but he needs to step up his game against the best team on Nevada's schedule. Also, after committing next to no turnovers last year, Kaepernick has three in the first two games of the year--2 INTs and 1 fumble. Missouri's given up quite a few yards so far this year, but if Kaepernick is careless with the ball, Mizzou is more than capable of making him pay.

One other thing--Nevada had numerous chances deep in Texas Tech territory and wasn't able to punch the ball into the endzone, with or without Lippincott. They attempted SIX FG's against Tech, and as was discussed in the offseason, settling for FGs against Mizzou = slow death. It's up to Kaepernick to will the ball into the endzone, and he hasn't proven he can do that consistently against a decent defense yet this year.

WR Marko Mitchell

The key to keeping up with Mizzou, other than not settling for FGs, will be scoring as many easy points as possible--long plays, turnovers, etc. For the "long plays" part of that equation, it's all about Marko Mitchell. Mitchell was a fantastic deep threat last year, and this year has been more of the same so far--in basically 1.5 games against Texas Tech and Grambling, Mitchell has 12 catches for a 16.3-yard average and 1 TD. Aside from maybe a Kaepernick scramble on a broken play, Mitchell represents Nevada's best chance at easy points, and he'll have to come up big at least twice for Nevada to have a chance.

OT's Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham

Texas Tech racked up four sacks last week. Missouri racked up 5 sacks (four from the DEs) against a mobile QB in Juice Williams. While Mizzou's blitzing has been entirely ineffective, Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis are poised for a big game if the O-line--the OT's in particular--can slow them down. SEMO thrived in the "quick delivery" department, and Mizzou's pass rush was somehow held in check last week, but I don't expect that to happen again.

FS Uche Anyanwu

Anyanwu had a solid game against Tech, with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. He and CB Antoine Thompson--3 pass break-ups last week--are the biggest playmakers in Nevada's secondary, and a lot will be expected of them if Mizzou is going to be held under 5 TDs. I was going to put LB Josh Mauga here because of his blitzing prowess, but...well, until given a reason to, I just don't fear other teams' blitzes. It's all on Nevada's secondary to make plays...or at least not miss any tackles.

Key Players: Missouri

TE Chase Coffman

I'm putting him here because of what I said during the score projections. Nevada was able to bump Texas Tech's WRs and confuse Graham Harrell into a 19-for-46 performance. Aside from two plays, they held Michael Crabtree in check (unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those two plays went for 50 and 82 yards...ouch). If they choose to give Jeremy Maclin the Crabtree Treatment, they can limit his effectiveness too. Combined with tight, bumping coverage of the other receivers, you'd think Nevada would have a pretty good recipe for physically defending the spread.

Only...Mizzou doesn't mind physical. They'll just throw to Chase Coffman 12 times, and...

RB Derrick Washington

...give Derrick Washington 15-20 carries. Washington is a strong, physical runner, and he and Coffman are the two reasons I just can't really fear any specific defensive strategy.

CB Castine Bridges

S Delstin Garward (Justin Garrett + Del Howard)

Here's what I said about Nevada's passing game back in June:

On non-passing downs, Nevada isn't very aggressive in the passing game--their 0.865 Passing S&P is lower than the national 0.884 and disproportionately lower than a lot of their numbers compared to the national average. However, on passing downs, it appears they go deep...a lot. Their success rate isn't that much higher than normal on passing downs, but when they connect, it's a huge play. Their 0.862 Passing S&P on passing downs has got to be one of the higher numbers in the country.

Two things concern me about this: 1) Mizzou was having Castine Bridges give a massively soft cushion on SEMO WRs last week. Maybe that changes this week, but if not, Nevada's horizontal passing game on non-passing downs could find all sorts of dink-and-dunk success against the Mizzou secondary, namely Bridges. So that's why Bridges is on there.

As for Garrett/Howard...well, if it's a passing down, chances are good that Mizzou's blitzing. And if they're blitzing, chances are good that they're sending William Moore. So that leaves Delstin Garward as the last line of defense...a role not filled very capably against Illinois.

Summary

Nevada is capable of scoring some points, and they've got enough physical guys on defense that they can wear you down if you let them. Their combination of dink-and-dunk prowess on non-passing downs and deep-ball prowess on passing downs has me a bit worried. I think Nevada will put up some yards. But let's go with the Star Factor here.

Nevada's Stars

Colin Kaepernick
Marko Mitchell
Joshua Mauga (potentially)

Missouri's Stars

Chase Daniel
Derrick Washington
Jeremy Maclin (the receiver)
Jeremy Maclin (the kick returner)
Chase Coffman
Colin Brown
Stryker Sulak
Ziggy Hood
Sean Weatherspoon
William Moore
Carl Gettis
Jeff Wolfert

Missouri is giving up too many yards, and I expect that to continue somewhat on Saturday. But they've just got too many playmakers. I think the BTBS projection (41-17) may be just about dead on with this one, but until someone holds Mizzou under 52, I'm going with the trend*.

* Two times = trend, right?

My Prediction: Missouri 52, Nevada 17.

Poll

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

27 votes

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

61 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Rock M Nation: Postgame Podcast #2

Bill C. — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 04:00:51 -0000

We're back with Week Two of the Postgame Podcast. This time with twice the content! Listen to rptgwb, The Beef, Uribe Auction, and me talk about Mizzou's take-the-foot-off-the-gas-25-minutes-in 52-3 win over SEMO!

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:00:05 -0000

We're going to set up projections the same way we did for Illinois (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), only to get enough of a sample size, I'm not going with SEMO, but with "FCS Tier 6", the estimated amalgamation of the worst FCS teams to play D1 opponents in 2007. (I've explained this before, but basically I combined the 1-AA/FCS teams into six tiers and grouped their stats together thusly.)

So without further adieu...

Mizzou-SEMO Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 178.77
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 19.77
Projection #1: 35.34
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Defense EqPts+: 50.18
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 32.30

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 33.82

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 149.55
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 17.32
Projection #1: 25.90
FCS Tier 6 Passing Defense EqPts+: 45.11
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 40.79

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 33.35

Adjusted for 2008: 28.00 (Pinkel doesn't run up the score)

SEMO Rushing

FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts+: 47.00
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 3.90
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 151.97
FCS Tier 6 Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.57
Projection #2: 4.98

Projected SEMO Rushing Output: 4.44

Adjusted for 2008: 2.50 (I liked what I saw against Illinois)

SEMO Passing

FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts+: 38.82
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 4.71
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 141.07
FCS Tier 6 Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 4.44
Projection #2: 3.15

Projected SEMO Passing Output: 3.93

Adjusted for 2008: 4.50 (are the troubles with Mizzou's Passing D enough to accidentally give up a long pass to SEMO at some point?)

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 56.0, SEMO 7.0

Special Teams

SEMO's special teams unit actually isn't that bad. Doug Spada is a stud punter--he averaged 42.6 yards per punt last year and uncorked a 47.6 yard average over 5 punts last weekend against SW Baptist (including two inside the 20). He's an average kicker--he went 2-for-4 on FGs last weekend, including misses from 34 and 35, but made a 47-yarder--and only averages about 59 yards on kickoffs, but let's be honest: he's going to be punting a lot more than he's kicking off or booting FGs, so this plays to his strengths. Their return game is nothing amazing, but it's also nothing terrible.

Unfortunately for SEMO, a) Mizzou just shut down a much better return game than SEMO has to offer, b) SEMO's never tried to tackle Jeremy Maclin before, and c) we've got Jeff Wolfert, and they don't. Special teams should be worth at least another 3-7 points on the scoreboard.

FCS Tier 6 Teams: Top '+' Rankings

Before I get to the "key players" for each team (I will not give SEMO the short shrift!), I wanted to look at something. It doesn't take a genius to realize that "FCS Tier 6" probably averaged at or very near the bottom in most categories, '+' rankings and otherwise. However, my '+' rankings tend to show that, well, everybody's decent at something. So let's look at where "FCS Tier 6" ranked the highest.

#31: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#53: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#58: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#62: Offensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#67: Offensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#72: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#77: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#80: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#81: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#85: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Now, the Q4 numbers are easy enough to understand--chances are, the other team's scrubs are in by that point. That might even explain the three Q2 categories. But the Defensive Line Yards phenomenon is rather interesting. Eight of the 10 categories have to do with rush defense in some way, and I don't completely have an explanation for that. In fact, let's just move on...

Key Players for SEMO

QB Houston Lillard

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's going to come from Lillard. He was a very impressive 27-39 for 387 yards and 3 TDs against SW Baptist last week and won the Ohio Valley's Offensive Player of the Week award, and even though that was against NAIA competition, that at least shows that he can throw, right? Of course, it would help if he had preseason All-OVC RB Timmy Holloman in the backfield with him, but Holloman was ruled ineligible for the first five games of '08. And backups Mike Jones and Jacob McKinley didn't exactly light SW Baptist ablaze.

WR Miles Edwards

If SEMO's going to exploit Mizzou's current weaknesses in the secondary, the ball's probably going to be caught by Edwards, who had 204 yards and 2 TDs (including an 80-yarder) against SW Baptist. He was SEMO's leading WR last year too, with 480 yards and 7 TDs.

LB Jared Goodson

He's SEMO's most highly-touted defensive player, a preseason All-OVC selection, though he only had 3 assisted tackles against SW Baptist. So maybe I'll go with senior LB Nick Stauffer instead--he had 10 solo and 6 assisted tackles, plus a fumble recovery. Either way, I'll be honest--I expect nothing from him this week.

CB Eddie Calvin

The junior Rockwood Summit alum had a career day last week, registering 3 first-half INTs. Lord knows he'll get to find out just how good he really is this week. If he comes up with 3 more against Chase Daniel, he probably has a future in the NFL awaiting him.

Key Players for Mizzou

WR Jeremy Maclin

He needs to have a big play in the first quarter so they have no qualms about taking him out as soon as possible. I want to see lots of Jerrell Jackson, Michael Egnew and Wes Kemp.

QB Chase Patton

He needs to be 100% healthy so that we don't even think about tearing off Blaine Gabbert's redshirt.

CBs Castine Bridges, Kevin Rutland, Tremane Vaughns, Trey Hobson, and whoever else plays opposite Carl Gettis

This one should go without saying. Does Mizzou really have a weakness at #2 CB, or was the Illinois game a giant outlier? Somebody here needs to step up, and I guess it'll probably be Bridges.

Ss Justin Garrett and Del Howard (the return of Deltin Garward!)

I put Garrett on the spot last week, and his performance wasn't overly encouraging. If Garrett and/or Howard are the cause of another deep-ball breakdown this week, I'll officially become the fan of the Hardy Ricks Fan Club...and maybe the Zaviar Gooden Fan Club too.

Summary

Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt. Nobody get hurt.

Missouri 59, SEMO 7*

(In these types of games, there's absolutely no idea to predict the score. Who knows when Pinkel will call off the dogs, and how many points the backups for both teams may score? Mizzou should end up with between 49-63 and SEMO 0-14. But all I know is...SEMO's really, really not good, and we may accidentally score 60.)

SB Nation - Castine Bridges

Mizzou 2009, Part Twelve: The Secondary

Secondary

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Rock M Roundtable!

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Okie State

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

No MVP--we lost!

Rock M Roundtable!

Mizzou-Buffalo: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Buffalo

Who was this week's statistical MVP? (Seems like the same candidates every week...)

Chase Daniel (71.1% passing success rate, 26.36 EqPts)

Derrick Washington (8.36 total EqPts, 20+ touches)

Jeremy Maclin (9.84 total EqPts)

Sean Weatherspoon (7 successful tackles, 19 total tackles, 0.5 sack)

Mizzou-Nevada: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

The BTBS Projection says Mizzou 41, Nevada 17 (which just so happens to be about where the betting line is). I didn't want to more-or-less duplicate a poll at Mizzourah, but...well...

25-point margin = too high. This one's going to be a battle.

25-point margin = too low. Nevada simply can't keep up.

Rock M Nation: Postgame Podcast #2

Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW