SB Nation - Brock Christopher

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

---

Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

---

Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

Mizzou 2009, Part Eleven: Linebackers

Bill C. — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 14:00:10 -0000

After a few days of talking about some other team, it's back to Mizzou we go.

Linebackers

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Sean Weatherspoon (6'2, 250, Sr.)
Luke Lambert (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Andrew Gachkar (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Will Ebner (6'1, 230, So.)
Zaviar Gooden (6'2, 225, RSFr.)
Donavan Bonner (6'2, 230, Fr.)
Tyler Crane (6'3, 230, So.)
Jeff Gettys (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Josh Tatum (6'1, 235, Jr.)

Here at RMN, we've proven very excitable in terms of the running back situation, the defensive ends, and especially the offensive line (oh yeah, and the quarterback). But is there any more exciting aposition on the Mizzou team than linebacker?

1. Is this Gary Pinkel's best linebacker corps? It's certainly the deepest. Mizzou isn't exactly Linebacker U. by any means, but for a while now, they have had at least one stellar LB. Barry Odom made every tackle in the late-'90s, followed by Jamonte Robinson, then Sean Doyle. James Kinney wreaked occasional havoc from 2001 to 2004, and Dedrick Harrington and Marcus Bacon were solid and serviceable through 2006. But here's the deal: there are a couple of backups in this current unit who might be at least as good as Bacon and Deke were as underclassmen.

This unit has a nice combination of size and speed. First, you've got The Man, Sean Weatherspoon, a tackling and play-making machine who was told he was a third-round pick at the end of 2008 and decided to come back for his senior season. He was told he needed to learn how to better shake off blocks, so he put on ten pounds and supposedly hasn't lost a step. It's hard to imagine how 'Spoon will be better in 2009, but as long as he's as good, the rest of the unit will make everybody look better.

Beyond 'Spoon, you've got Luke Lambert, a starter in his last 15 games, moving to his natural spot in the middle. You've got Andrew Gachkar, a speed demon and two-year special teams missile, seeing his stock rising with each day. You've got Will Ebner, a stocky, mean sophomore with speed. You've got Zaviar Gooden, good and respected enough to become the first recipient of the #25 jersey, barely able to find room on the second string. You've got Donovan "'Spoon Jr." Bonner, seemingly forcing a turnover a day in practice as a true freshman. You've got Tyler Crane, athletic enough and with enough potential that the coaches played him as a true freshman at DE in 2007.

And let's face it...even Jeff Gettys would have probably started on that last Larry Smith team.

I've said it before, but there could not possibly be a better time to make the switch to Dave Steckel at defensive coordinator. While there likely won't be many strategic changes from when Matt Eberflus was manning the position, Steckel seems to coach with a linebacker's mindset. This unit will pursue, pursue, pursue, and if defensive improvement is found despite all the lost starters, look to the linebackers for the main reason why.

2. How good is Luke Lambert? Good question. Very good question. While supposedly Andrew Gachkar has had to fight to hold onto his starting position, Lambert is apparently safe, and his move to the middle might be a great thing. I worry, though, simply because he's not a playmaker. While Sean Weatherspoon made 65.0 "successful" tackles (second-highest in the country among linebackers), and Brock Christopher made a solid 40.5 (75th), Lambert made only 12.0 of 22.5 overall tackles.

Now, the average S&P for his tackles was 0.760, putting him directly between 'Spoon (0.736) and Christopher (0.772). Plus, his run-pass split of tackles also fell between the two; 62.2% of his stops came against the run ('Spoon 61.6%, Christopher 65.7%). Looking at ratios and the quality of his tackles, it seems he's got pretty good potential. It's just that, well, he didn't make that many tackles for a full-time starter. Of course, with how much Mizzou played nickel last year, he might not have truly gotten a starter's number of plays.

With Ebner, Gooden, and Bonner all potentially making a solid threat for playing time, we'll see pretty quickly if Lambert is facing a challenge or if he's still a step ahead of all of them, but if he can maintain a controlling force in the middle while 'Spoon is 'Spoon on one side and Gachkar/Ebner/Gooden/Bonner are flying around like headless chickens on the other side, this defense will have no choice but to be pretty serviceable.

3. Will Ebner: Category 5 hurricane...or Category 32? Yes.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

Mizzou Links, 8-4-09

Bill C. — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:43:12 -0000

Yeah, I have F*@%ING JURY DUTY today. Bleh. BLEH.

A couple of J-E-T-S links kick things off today. First we've got Brad Smith working with a new assistant coach (whose name you may recognize) to become a better receiver...

For the better part of the spring and so far in training camp, he has been included in the three-wide receiver sets along with Jerricho Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey. With Laveranues Coles gone, the Jets are looking for answers at wide receiver. Rex Ryan didn't discount Smith sliding up the depth chart when he raved about him Saturday.

"This is a tough guy," Ryan said. "I don't know how many touchdowns he has scored in college as a quarterback, but I think it was over 100 that he was responsible for. This is a competitive guy. He is tough. He has great size and he can catch and do everything. I don't see why he cannot be an excellent receiver. He will be given every single chance to be that guy."

...then you've got Brock Christopher fighting for a job. Literally.

So being that yesterday was Monday, we've got...CASE OF THE MONDAYS!!

Moe Options: Now that Sheldon Richardson is spending his August in Visalia, Calif., the most intriguing incoming freshman might be O’Fallon’s T.J. Moe, who was originally projected as safety but enters camp as a wide receiver. By all accounts, the former prep quarterback is a player that needs the ball in his hands. Can he crack the WR rotation immediately? What about a formation or two with Moe lined up behind center? The possibilities are tantalizing.

And speaking of weekly features, Like Father, Unlike Son is back as well! The season is just around the corner!!

To recruiting, where Rivals.com's preseason Missouri Top 30 has been released. A relatively deep MO class this year (seven 4-star guys, another 13 3-stars) considering that Mizzou really hasn't offered just a ton of in-state guys. They're in good shape with #'s 1-3, and it wouldn't surprise me if Don Shumpert or Josh Mattes eventually got offers as well. Don't know if we're too late jumping in on Shumpert, but I figure we could have Mattes if we wanted.

Meanwhile, on the basketball side of the equation, 4-star TX guard Rickey Scott likes Mizzou and will visit. It doesn't look like Keith Dewitt has or will qualify, which means Mizzou will probably have four scholarships to give--assume they'll take three guards (Ricky Kreklow, a point, a 2) and a big man. Scott and Mardracus Wade appear to be the top guys for the 2-guard spot, while Phil Pressey is clearly the top guy at point. Not sure who the favored big is at this point.

And speaking of basketball...don't you think "Mizzou, Norm Stewart part company" is a bit of a harsh headline?

Border ~~War~~ ~~Skirmish~~ Slapfight tickets go on sale Friday!

Oh, and Mizzou fans? Don't even get your hopes up about Blaine Gabbert. His ego will crush the whole team, and Gary Pinkel's too weak to deal with it. BG's easily as bad as Rhett Bomar and Sam Keller. So says a guy who has probably spent about five minutes around him.

The Post-Dispatch discusses what should be one of the bigger pre-season issues of the day: the fact that the coaches' poll actually has any power whatsoever. They don't take it seriously, and they can sway the rankings to help themselves. But it's the computers that everybody always complains about...makes total sense.

An era ends...

Finally, you owe it to yourself to peruse a pair of great Andy Staples (SI) columns about a) the best recent names in football recruiting (god bless Iris Macadangdang), and b) the best high school nicknames (I've always actually been partial to the Elk City Elks. Simple, straight-forward.).

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Mizzou Links, 6-16-09

Bill C. — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:35:44 -0000

With the NBA Draft getting ever closer, DeMarre Carroll talks about the random liver issue that everybody's just now hearing about, while the KC Star's Mike Dearmond discusses the draft potential of both Carroll and Leo Lyons.

The real thing is Carroll has put himself on the doorstep of a pro career. His big task will be bringing the energy that he brought every game of his college career to every game of his NBA career, and as we all know, the NBA season is a lot longer. It’ll be hard, but the kid has a lot of guts. And I really liked his explanation of the outlook he has with the liver disorder. You know, in 20-25 years, maybe by then we can grow a new liver.

To basketball recruiting, where the wooing of top 2010 names is gaining speed. You've got well-touted Memphis guard Mardracus Wade enjoying himself at Mizzou's camp and ranking Mizzou alongside Arkansas, Baylor, Mississippi State, Alabama, and UMass (sounds like Arkansas is the leader); then you've got even more well-touted Memphis forward Tarik Black talking Mizzou. Gonna be a fight for either or both of them, though with the list of guards looking at Mizzou, I do think Black would be the bigger (and harder) get of the two.

To football recruiting, where PowerMizzou collects itself after a few crazy weeks and puts together a new Offensive Hot Board for 2010.

Brock Christopher: New York Jet.

The Unholy Alliance has taken itself to 140-character territory. Meanwhile, check out a decent Curt Kitchen interview with Old Man Snyder (via BOTC).

Carrying on from yesterday's major conversation topic--the new Mountain West BCS proposal--I bring you the takes of Dave Matter and Dr. Saturday.

Dave:

I do like the idea of a 12-person committee deciding the top 25, a proposal that I’m assuming would essentially eliminate the super-secret coaches’ poll from having any say in the postseason process. Regardless, I don't give this proposal much chance. Change doesn't come about too easily with this crew, especially at the suggestion of a non-BCS conference.

Doc:

In one sense, Thompson's plan would be a sort of stopgap to the declining art of non-conference scheduling: Teams would have to hold up their end to hit the 20-game plateau. But simply maintaining the status quo in that regard would mean the current auto-bids are safe, and the "radical change" is nothing more than a thinly veiled wedge for the Mountain West to get its foot in the door. (None of the other mid-major conferences are in question here, because none aside from the Mountain West approaches the required .400 win percentage against the "Big Six" leagues.) In that case, the MWC is just another mouth at the table, demanding a slice of the pie. Those with pie do not typically vote to share with those without pie.

As trrip at SimmonsField.com wraps up his, um, season wrap-up, it's time for the Jay Bell Award.

Finally...nothing to do with Mizzou, but this list from 11 Points, talking about 11 Major League feats that have happened only once, is hilarious.

And with even LESS to do with Mizzou, I bring you...Death Metal Parrot.

Chiefs Will Have a Bunch of Visits on Friday

Joel Thorman — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:59:26 -0000

The Kansas City Chiefs will workout a handful of players from area teams on Friday according to Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star.. An NFL rule allows teams to bring in local players. This is used mostly for those that weren't invited to any of the post-season activities. For the Chiefs this includes KU, MU, KSU, Ball State and Missouri Western.

Here's a few links for the players that will be coming to the Chiefs complex tomorrow.

QB Josh Freeman, KSU

Josh Freeman set to visit the Chiefs (but he's not working out)
#18 pick in the Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft (pre-Cutler trade)
27 on the Wonderlic Test
Pre-Cassel, Peter King says Freeman could be an option for the Chiefs

LB Mike Rivera, KU

WR Tommy Saunders, MU

NFL Draft Scout

LB Brock Christopher, MU

NFL Draft Scout

K Jeff Wolfert, MU

NFL Draft Scout

TE Chase Coffman, MU

G Roger Allen, Missouri Western

We heard he had a workout with the Chiefs scheduled

TE Darius Hill, Ball State

NFL Draft Scout

There are likely more players that will be attending the workout but that's all we've got for now. Remember to check out our Chiefs Draft Interests page (constantly updated and on the right side bar) and make sure you're using the FanShot section if you come across any other scheduled workouts or Chiefs draft interests.

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

RPT — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:51:00 -0000

Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.

Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.

Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.

Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.

The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).

More rambling after the jump.

Needless to say, when the game finally kicked off, Mizzou still didn't seem ready to play. No disrespect to NU, but between penalties and dumb mistakes, Mizzou was beating Mizzou. It took a football team as talented and as sound as Northwestern to make Mizzou pay for its mistakes, but for the majority of the game, the Tigers did not play like a team that deserved to win, much less like Big 12 North champions or a team that began the season with BCS aspirations.

As far as players on the field are concerned, that all began with Chase Daniel's play in the final game of his illustrious Missouri career. I couldn't believe it was happening, but in the second half, Daniel found himself being booed by the Missouri fans after another missed deep ball. What was more unbelievable, though, was that I understood the booing, and semi-agreed. As I look back, Daniel is a victim of his own expectation. When we come to expect excellence, then "pretty good" looks lackluster. When we expect at least "pretty good," an average effort by most QBs standards looks downright pedestrian. And that's exactly what Daniel looked like last night - pedestrian. What made Daniel great in 2007 was his decision making and his ability to always find an open receiver. In 2008, Daniel trusted his arm at the expense of his head. The third INT was a perfect example. Daniel thinks he sees blitz, predetermines a receiver, and one throw later, Mizzou is in trouble.

As for Jeremy Maclin, what can be said that already hasn't? When the game ended, J-Mac smiled as he walked in front of Missouri fans collectively chanting "One more year!" I found myself chanting along, but in my heart, a large part of me wants to see him go to the next level. No. 9 has done wonders for this university in only two years, and his service will continue if he represents the Mizzou football program in a positive manner in the NFL at the level projected for him by NFL scouts.

The same goes for Coffman, minus the questions about his return. I don't need to expound upon the love the Flying Nunchuk gets around these parts, but I'm not sure I'll ever see a set of hands like No. 45's in a Mizzou uniform again, and that's no slight to future Tigers. Watching him in person has been a privilege I'm not sure I can accurately convey with words.

Defensively, a couple of downfield breakdowns aside, we were able to see the kind of individual talent on this defense that was so highly touted before the season and so highly criticized as it progressed. I'm not sure how others have graded them out, but from field level, the D-Line looked absolutely incredible. Stryker Sulak had the type of game you come to expect from Stryker Sulak (including his second straight bowl game Superman). Jaron Baston commanded special attention inside. The numbers may not reflect it, but Ziggy Hood was dominant inside, as the NU guards had no answer for Z's quickness (causing the back-to-back holding penalties in NU's red zone). Brian Coulter showed good burst when he decided to line up on the correct side of the neutral zone, and Jacquies Smith continues to show an uncanny ability to get upfield every play, a huge asset on passing downs but a bit of a concern on rushing plays and screens.

The linebacking corps displayed why it was the backbone of this defense all year, as Sean Weatherspoon was unequivocally the most dominant player on the field Monday. Run stopping? Spoon. Pass coverage? Spoon. Pursuit? Spoon. Wrapping up? Spoon. Holding teammates accountable? Spoon. Firing teammates up? Spoon. But for all of the love we feed Spoon, Brock Christopher has been very much a forgotten man among common Missouri fans. Christopher's knack for timely turnovers (against Baylor and all opponents named "NU") hopefully draws attention to his nose for the football. While I have no doubt that Missouri has an excess of linebackers who can fly (Gachkar, Ebner, etc.), I'm slightly scared to see if Missouri has anyone capable of filling Brock's shoes of a linebacker who can break down and maintain leverage inside, particularly against the run.

Yet, watching the defensive backfield was like watching a bad rerun. Carl Gettis couldn't have picked a much worse time for the worst game of his career (after RMN has vehemently defended him). Justin Garrett was once again either the victim or the perpetrator of a miscommunication on a deep touchdown pass. Kenji Jackson continues to be the in the right place at the right time, but if there were Heismans for almost making plays, KJ would have to at least get an invite to the ceremony. He couldn't have been more than 6 inches from a pick on NU's last TD pass, and he was one NU bobble from another interception earlier in the game.

The most tragic of the defensive back field analyses though is that of one William Moore. What could have been if Willy Mo was healthy and properly used? We've beaten the horse to death, but why put your best ballhawking, centerfield safety and play him at the line of scrimmage all game long? Just because it allows to disguise his blitzing patterns, or are you that concerned with covering the slot? 2007 Willy Mo was a fantastic safety. Injuries and Matt Eberflus reduced 2008 Willy Mo to an above-average nickelback.

Hidden in the passion of victory but supported by The Boy in his recent BTBS post was the play of Jake Harry. Remember when punting was our biggest concern this offseason? The decision to rugby punt in the OSU game and throughout the season was, I thought, one of the better moves of the year, and it paid off handsomely in the Alamo Bowl. Then there's the story of Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned best kicker in NCAA history turned potential goat. What a storyline, and what a finish at a result.

You add it all together, and it made for a drama none of us would have or could have predicted five months ago. And when you think about the 2008 season, I'm not sure it would have been appropriate to end any other way.

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:00:07 -0000

We were out of sorts all game, Chase Daniel's never played worse, we were falling down in pass coverage, we couldn't run the ball, our "most accurate kicker of all-time" missed a game-ending FG, we were a step behind in our play-calling for much of the game...and we won our 10th game of the season. How in the hell did this happen??

Missouri (30)		NW'ern (23)
	% Close = 100.0%
63.2%	Field Position %	36.8%
70.3%	Leverage %	69.9%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	83
18.55	EqPts	22.09
41.9%	Success Rate	41.0%
0.25	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.670	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.676

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
4.45	EqPts	4.06
34.5%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.15	PPP	0.12
0.498	S&P	0.516
3.00	Line Yards/carry	3.03

	PASSING
14.10	EqPts	18.03
46.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.31	PPP	0.38
0.780	S&P	0.792
2.2%	Sack Rate	10.4%

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
48.1%	Success Rate	43.1%
0.25	PPP	0.28
0.726	S&P	0.708
3.1%	Sack Rate	3.2%
38.5%	Run Rate	46.6%

	PASSING DOWNS
27.3%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.26	PPP	0.24
0.536	S&P	0.600
0.0%	Sack Rate	23.5%
40.9%	Run Rate	32.0%

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
5.79	Points Lost	1.84
7.70	Points Given	3.33
13.49	Total T/O Pts	5.17
-8.32	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.32

0.678	Q1 S&P	0.868
0.721	Q2 S&P	0.603
0.729	Q3 S&P	0.991
0.607	Q4/Q5 S&P	0.377

0.509	1st Down S&P	0.678
0.670	2nd Down S&P	0.587
0.971	3rd/4th Down S&P	0.790

0.410	In own red zone	0.515
0.723	25 to 25	0.839
0.600	In opp. red zone	0.491

Thoughts after the jump...

Taking EqPts and Turnover Points into account, Northwestern should have won this game by about 12 points. But two things won this game for Missouri:

1) Total Missouri plays inside own red zone (which I define as inside the 25 instead of inside the 20): 4. Total Northwestern plays inside own red zone: 30. Alamo Bowl Co-MVP: Jake Harry.

2) Northwestern's Q4/Q5 S&P: 0.377. In their last 23 plays, NW'ern gained 40 yards. Just an outstanding performance by the defense down the stretch. And really, aside from two major breakdowns--Willy Mo stumbling around like a drunk on the first TD and either Carl Gettis getting roasted or Gettis and Justin Garrett not being on the same page on what coverage was being run (again) on NW'ern's Q3 go-ahead TD--the defense was good all game, believe it or not.
Look at that sack rate! For the first time all season, the blitz worked, and it ended up winning the game for Mizzou. I don't know if they attempted different things, or if the same things just worked this time, but kudos to Matt Eberflus for figuring something out after a rough year of play-calling.
Whereas NU's 11-for-21 performance on third downs kept them into the game to a degree (0.790 S&P on 3rd/4th downs), it was Mizzou's third-down performance (0.971) that made the difference. They faced longer third downs more often, but still converted a high rate. And in a game in which they seemingly had no hope for a big play, they had to work the dink-and-dunk routine themselves, and they did just that.
Kudos to NW'ern for shutting down Derrick Washington. I predicted that NW'ern wouldn't do much on the ground, and I was right...but I thought D-Wash would eventually start finding some holes, and I was very much incorrect. Overall, the rushing game was a wash for both teams.
Passing...eesh. Really, Mizzou's 46.7% success rate isn't too shabby (though it's well below their season average). The big thing here was Point Per Play--Mizzou had no hope of a big play in the passing game all night. Power to NW'ern to that, though Chase Daniel's suddenly erratic arm had plenty to do with that too. NW'ern seemed to have the deep routes covered for the most part, and the two times they didn't (on a bomb to Jared Perry and an intermediate sideline pass to Tommy Saunders), Daniel was well off-target.
The other part to Mizzou's lack of PPP was NW'ern's lockdown tackling. I can't think of more than just a couple of plays where Mizzou ended up getting decent YAC yardage.
From last week's BTBS Preview:
Check out the Passing Downs run rates. NU has a game-plan decision to make. Mizzou is piss poor defending Passing Downs, and opponents know it--they run the ball a minuscule 23.5% of the time in those situations. NU, however, plays things conservatively, running the ball 38.9% of the time. Do they stick to their conservative tendencies, or do they open things up knowing that Mizzou has more breakdowns than a lot of other defenses?
Final verdict: NW'ern ran the ball 32% of the time on Passing Downs--almost directly between the 23.5% and 38.9% averages.
Also from last week:
No offense in the country is better than Missouri on Non-Passing Downs. They are both efficient and explosive. If NU is going to win in San Antonio, they must figure out a way to leverage Mizzou into Passing Downs
Verdict: Mizzou's success rate was decent on NPD's, but the PPP was horrendous. Seriously...how did Mizzou win this game?

Let's take a look back at what I called the keys to the game...

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

Touchdowns, not field goals. NW'ern really needed to score TDs in the red zone to keep up with Mizzou (in theory). How'd they do? Three trips to the red zone (including the OT possession), 10 points. Fail.
Dink and dunk, dink and dunk. NW'ern was very successful on-and-off with the dink-dunk strategy. The only problem was, thanks to the leg of Jake Harry, NU had to drive the full length of the field more often than not. It's one thing to dink-and-dunk consistently for 50 yards. For 90 yards? Far too difficult. We'll say this was half-success, half-fail.
Confuse Chase Daniel. SUCCESS. Chase was every bit as discombobulated as he was against Oklahoma State...moreso, really.

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Bring it. Consider this one a giant fail. They were not sharp early, and they allowed NW'ern to completely dictate the tempo of the first half. When they started playing marginally better in the third quarter, they had absolutely no margin for error, and they let NU regain the lead. But...they won, so I guess it's not a giant fail. Just a fail.
Don't miss tackles. Carl Gettis whiffed on a tackle in Q2, and it turned into a huge gain, but otherwise Mizzou wasn't too bad here. Tyrell Sutton is very tough to bring down with just one guy--the dude's got the lowest center of gravity I've ever seen...he practically runs with one hand on the ground at all times. It usually took a couple of Tigers to bring him down, but they never let him bust a long one, other than the infamous "BOO HOORAY BOO" play in the first quarter (the 40-yard screen pass on third down that ended in a fumble...only to be called back due to offsides), but that one didn't count.
Stomp the Throat. Mizzou had the dagger in their hands three times. The first time, they were up 17-16 after Brock Christopher's interception, and they went three-and-out and managed only a field goal to go up 20-16 (a lead quickly wiped out by a NW'ern scoring drive). The second time, Jeff "Most Accurate Kicker in FBS History" Wolfert pushed the game-ending FG wide right. The third time, they made it count in OT. Better late than never, but it's best not to let underdogs hang around.

In the end, though, Mizzou's playmakers made plays when they had to--Maclin's punt return, 'Spoon's overall ridiculousness, Willy Mo making the big play on his last two plays in a Tiger uniform, Chase Coffman making a couple catches he had no business making, Jeff Wolfert nailing three FGs, Stryker Sulak coming up with a couple huge sacks--, and they won the game, even if they did miss the throat a couple times.

Summary

Illinois
SEMO
Nevada
Buffalo
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Texas
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
~~Oklahoma~~

It's been a fun BTBS season. I've taken these numbers to Football Outsiders, and they're starting to grow into something pretty cool. I hope more people understand them and use them to supplement what they see with their eyes. In the comments section below, feel free to let me know what suggestions you have to make this BTBS piece better and more useful (other than maybe a permanent link to the BTBS glossary somewhere...I keep meaning to do that...).

Anyway, despite the disappointment involved in a couple of unforeseen losses, this really was a fun season overall, and it doesn't take a BTBS post to figure that out. Chase Coffman's nunchuk thrusts...Jeremy Maclin starting and ending the season by becoming the Human Momentum Swing on neutral fields...Sean Weatherspoon starting and ending the season by refusing to let the Mizzou defense crumble...Chase Daniel completing 20 consecutive passes against Buffalo...absolutely destroying Nebraska in every way, shape and form, and in Lincoln to boot...clobbering and embarrassing Colorado...winning a second straight North title...in the end, not quite as many amazing moments as in 2007, but we've been getting spoiled. I hope to be analyzing a lot more wins than losses once more in 2009...

Poll

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

27 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

46 votes

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

3 votes

Why choose? All of the above!

22 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:03:46 -0000

You didn't think I forgot about the BTBS preview, did you?

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
68.8%		% Close	52.5%
49.7%	50.3%	Field Position %	55.1%	44.9%
71.3%	65.9%	Leverage %	76.8%	68.5%

		Total
795	780	Plays	762	826
313.43	292.05	EqPts	392.41	265.57
47.6%	41.8%	Success Rate	56.8%	42.1%
0.39	0.37	PPP	0.51	0.32
0.870	0.792	S&P	1.083	0.743

		Close Games
528	555	Plays	453.	381
218.59	212.79	EqPts	228.79	119.84
47.9%	43.1%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.8%
0.41	0.38	PPP	0.51	0.31
0.893	0.814	S&P	1.081	0.742

		Rushing
115.92	105.62	EqPts	145.56	91.46
49.4%	39.4%	Success Rate	52.0%	40.6%
0.33	0.33	PPP	0.46	0.25
0.820	0.728	S&P	0.977	0.659
3.35	2.71	Line Yds/carry	3.13	2.73

		Passing
197.51	186.44	EqPts	246.84	174.12
46.0%	43.4%	Success Rate	60.3%	43.3%
0.45	0.40	PPP	0.56	0.38
0.910	0.837	S&P	1.160	0.809
5.9%	4.3%	Sack Rate	2.2%	5.4%

		Non-Passing Downs
51.7%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	47.1%
0.38	0.37	PPP	0.55	0.32
0.895	0.831	S&P	1.162	0.794
5.3%	3.9%	Sack Rate	1.6%	4.1%
53.8%	50.4%	Run Rate	47.9%	52.8%

		Passing Downs
37.4%	33.0%	Success Rate	41.7%	31.6%
0.43	0.39	PPP	0.41	0.32
0.807	0.720	S&P	0.830	0.636
6.8%	4.8%	Sack Rate	3.6%	7.1%
23.4%	23.5%	Run Rate	23.5%	26.7%

		Turnovers
19	21	Total	17	19
43.19	61.28	Points Lost	48.11	45.63
46.04	50.30	Points Given	34.23	71.73
89.23	111.58	Total T/O Pts	82.34	117.36
+22.35	-22.35	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	+35.02	-35.02

Thoughts after the jump...

The first thing I notice on this large box score is just how average KU has been in a lot of areas. I'm still living a bit off of the KU '07 aura, I guess. But whereas MU is +0.339 in close-game S&P, KU is only +0.078. When they've been beaten, more often than not, they've been drubbed.
That said, their running game really has improved recently. Jake Sharp is not necessarily a big-play threat, but he's quite solid, and KU's 3.35 line yards per carry are much better than I thought they'd manage at the beginning of the season. Also, KU's 49.4% success rate running the ball opens up an avenue of ball control success for them. Their big-play potential (i.e. PPP) is pretty crappy, but they can potentially move the chains a bit.
Meanwhile, Mizzou's running game has the big-play threat that KU's lacks. Their 0.46 PPP rushing is over one-third better than KU's. They've been outstanding at preventing the big rushing play as well. It's a huge advantage to MU if KU can't manage at least a few healthy chunks of yards on the ground.
Next window of opportunity for Mizzou: sack rates. KU allows a few too many, and MU is pretty decent at racking them up. If there is no big-play threat from the running game, Mizzou's rush ends (Stryker Sulak, Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter) could have Todd Reesing running for his life. Reesing's a crafty SOB, and he can create the occasional out-of-nothing play...but he can only do that so many times.
Both teams have managed positive turnover point differentials, and while Mizzou's is higher, it's only by about a point a game.

On to the situational stats...

KU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
		Q1
51.1%	44.4%	Success Rate	57.9%	46.9%
0.39	0.35	PPP	0.53	0.28
0.903	0.794	S&P	1.110	0.751

		Q2
46.4%	39.9%	Success Rate	59.0%	40.1%
0.39	0.33	PPP	0.51	0.27
0.858	0.732	S&P	1.100	0.673

		Q3
40.1%	41.5%	Success Rate	55.8%	41.6%
0.43	0.44	PPP	0.55	0.35
0.832	0.855	S&P	1.107	0.770

		Q4
51.5%	41.7%	Success Rate	53.9%	40.8%
0.37	0.38	PPP	0.47	0.38
0.882	0.792	S&P	1.004	0.784

		1st Downs
49.0%	43.7%	Success Rate	57.6%	42.9%
0.40	0.38	PPP	0.53	0.32
0.892	0.814	S&P	1.103	0.753

		2nd Downs
45.3%	39.2%	Success Rate	57.9%	40.6%
0.34	0.38	PPP	0.48	0.33
0.796	0.770	S&P	1.061	0.731

		3rd Downs
48.4%	41.1%	Success Rate	54.3%	41.1%
0.38	0.32	PPP	0.56	0.27
0.866	0.728	S&P	1.107	0.679

KU's offense gets progressively worse as the game advances (for the first three quarters, anyway). Their success rate falls from a solid 51.1% in Q1 to a 46.4% in Q2, and to a 40.1% in Q3. Keep this in mind. As I said above, KU's running game has some grind-it-out potential, but without the big play it's only a matter of time before grind-it-out stops working. Mizzou's bend-don't-break defense will get a stop more often than not--you can't expect an 18-play drive. And as they slowly put the clamps on the run, the passing yards will get harder to come by as well.
Meanwhile, the KU defense gets better as a half progresses. They're better in Q2 than Q1 and better in Q4 than Q3. Overall, Q3 is their weakest quarter.
KU's good at coming up with 3rd-down stops, though, so first-down yardage could be key for Mizzou.
Sheesh. Mizzou's offensive numbers are staggeringly consistent down-to-down and quarter-to-quarter. That's ridiculous.
It appears that the best time for KU to strike will be in Q1. Mizzou doesn't give up big plays, but they allow a pretty healthy success rate. Expect KU to have some success early on, but as long as Mizzou doesn't allow an easy score or two early, they should have a strong window opportunity to seize the game in Q2 and Q3.

'+' Rankings

This is just a quick refresher from Monday's BTBS Rankings/Projections post. The following numbers are conference-only stats.

KU & MU '+' figures and conference ranking
Category	KU Off.	KU Def.	MU Off.	MU Def.
Success Rates+	103.3 (#6)	103.8 (#5)	117.3 (#2)	102.2 (#6)
PPP+	95.2 (#7)	100.0 (#8)	115.5 (#5)	109.3 (#5)
S&P+	99.2 (#7)	102.0 (#9)	116.5 (#2)	105.4 (#3)
Rushing S&P+	106.0 (#5)	104.4 (#7)	116.2 (#1)	111.8 (#2)
Passing S&P+	94.4 (#7)	101.5 (#7)	113.7 (#5)	101.1 (#8)
Close-Game S&P+	102.2 (#7)	102.9 (#6)	109.1 (#5)	109.1 (#3)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+	100.1 (#7)	103.6 (#6)	118.0 (#1)	107.1 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+	96.4 (#8)	97.2 (#8)	105.2 (#6)	96.9 (#9)
Redzone S&P+	113.4 (#2)	97.8 (#8)	107.7 (#5)	108.5 (#4)

Keep KU of the redzone, as they're pretty automatic once they get that far. Otherwise, as far as explosive Big 12 offenses go, they're pretty mediocre across the board.
The one advantage they have in comparison to Mizzou's defensive numbers comes in the Success Rate figures. As I mentioned earlier, they probably won't be able to generate many huge plays, but they can potentially work the clock and keep the Mizzou offense off the field somewhat.
Meanwhile, the line of thought from Mizzou's players and coaches this week has been that, while KU's defensive numbers aren't amazing, that has to do with all the good offenses they've played against. That's partially true, but as the '+' numbers suggest, this is still an average to above-average defense at best. And like the offense, they're not particularly great at any one thing.

Key Players: Kansas

RB Jake Sharp

He's hurt, but he's still by far KU's best and most consistent back, particularly between the tackles. If he can't go, the onus falls onto disappointing JUCO transfer Jocques Crawford, and I think that spells doom for KU. If KU's going to win, it's because Sharp was able to get some tough yards and take the pressure off of Todd Reesing.

WR Kerry Meier

He's also hurt. But here's the deal: a team has to have a secondary receiving threat to move the ball on Mizzou. Dezmon Briscoe is outstanding, and he'll probably get some yards, but he'll be getting the Carl Gettis Treatment™, and somebody else will have to step up on key plays. Meier has 73 catches and Briscoe has 69; after those two, the production falls considerably to Johnathan Wilson (38 catches). Wilson could be something of a secret weapon, but if KU's going to win, chances are it's because Meier had 4-5 third-down catches.

LB James Holt

While KU's defense hasn't performed as well as it did last year overall, and while fellow LBs Joe Mortensen and Mike Rivera have been solid but not spectacular, James Holt's play has been outstanding. He leads KU with 14.5 tackles for loss, six sacks and six forced fumbles. He plays well in pass coverage, he plays well close to the line, he blitzes well, and he was also the best defensive player on the field the last time Mizzou and Kansas played at Arrowhead. If KU's going to win, it's because they were coming up with third-down stops...and Holt was probably the guy making them.

K Jacob Branstetter

Last year at Arrowhead, KU kicker Scott Webb missed two first-half FGs and prevented the Jayhawks from getting any momentum whatsoever until the the scoring margin was too big to make up. He makes those two kicks, and it's a completely different ballgame down the stretch. Branstetter has been fine in the kicking game this year, but he hasn't been asked to do much--he's just 2-for-4 in conference play. If KU's going to win, Branstetter will not be able to take points off the board with shaky play.

Even if Branstetter isn't asked to do much, this spot on the Key Players list signifies special teams as a whole--if Marcus Herford can bust a big return, or if Branstetter makes a big kick, or if anything really good happens to KU in the special teams game, the outlook of the game as a whole could change instantly.

Key Players: Mizzou

QB Chase Daniel

In two starts against Kansas, Chase Daniel is 66-for-87 (76%) for 719 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. Insane. From a completions and yards perspective, Daniel is even better this year than he was in 2006 or 2007, so in theory that means his numbers will be better this year, right?

Well, if they are, KU will get absolutely smoked. Kansas would like nothing more than to finally get to Daniel, and they better figure out how...fast.

FS William Moore

Willy Mo finally began playing like Willy Mo 2007 two weeks ago in Ames. No other player on Mizzou's defense can demoralize an opposing offense in a millisecond like Moore, and honestly...he's always the key player on the Mizzou defense.

LB Brock Christopher, DTs Ziggy Hood & Jaron Baston

While KU has somewhat forgotten how to pass block in recent weeks, their run blocking has gotten much better in conference play. Against OU, they had a ton of success running the ball because OU had a new middle linebacker, and the interior of KU's line took advantage. If the middle triangle of Mizzou's defense--Christopher, Hood, Baston--thrives, the game's over. Jake Sharp and Jocques Crawford don't have the jets to consistently succeed running outside. They're going to have to be able to move the chains running between the tackles, and if they can't, it's open season on Todd Reesing.

William Clarke Quantrill

Quite simply, the main reason KU has a shot to win this game is because it's the Border War, and weird things happen. Just ask Brad Smith. Or Paul Pierce. Mizzou players and coaches have done a very convincing job this week of saying the right things--KU has a great team, this is a big game, we're not focused on the Big 12 title game, etc. Mizzou has the better team in this game, and if they come out with Quantrill fire to match KU's Jennison rage, they win this game.

Summary & Prediction

Things to pay attention to early in Saturday's game: 1) if KU is struggling to create holes for Jake Sharp, that's very bad for KU; 2) if KU can't generate any Q1 offense (like last year), that's very bad for KU; 3) if MU is only getting 2-4 yards on first down instead of 5-7, that's potentially bad for MU; 4) if Chase Daniel isn't knocked off his feet in Q1 (not even by a sack--just by any pressure of any kind), it's very bad for KU.

Oh yeah, and 5) if Jeremy Maclin is running free in the KU secondary (or on kick returns), it's very very bad for KU.

My Monday BTBS projections predicted a 34-25 win for Mizzou. That sounds about right. Mizzou has a special teams advantage, plus the slightest of edges in turnover margin. My gut is saying this will be about a 38-17 win for Mizzou. So in the end, we'll say that after an even Q1, Mizzou makes a move some time in Q2 and Q3 and withstands the Reesing Surge in Q4. Mizzou 35, Kansas 21.

If KU is able to work the clock and come up with some third-down stops, then this game can shift into "Rivalry Game--throw out the records/stats" mode, which would be very bad for Mizzou. But if stats and talent matter, Mizzou has a healthy edge. There are a lot more avenues to success for Missouri, and in the end they will likely win comfortably.

SB Nation - Brock Christopher

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

---

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Illinois Preview

Mizzou 2009, Part Eleven: Linebackers

Linebackers

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

Offense (returning starters: 5)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Special Teams

Key losses

Season Forecast

Predicted order of finish

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou Links, 8-4-09

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Mizzou Links, 6-16-09

Chiefs Will Have a Bunch of Visits on Friday

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri(30)

NW'ern(23)

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Summary

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

Why choose? All of the above!

Mizzou-Kansas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

KU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

'+' Rankings

Key Players: Kansas

Key Players: Mizzou

Summary & Prediction

Missouri
(30)

NW'ern
(23)