SB Nation - Stryker Sulak

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Bill C. — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:00:20 -0000

It's that time of year, boys and...well, a couple girls. BTBS Preview season is back! One problem: not much has changed since the last time we looked at Illinois back in June. I'm going to quote liberally from that piece (I know you all have it memorized, ahem, but I'll do it anyway) while adding pieces here and there. And we'll start with a new feature.

Conventional Wisdom

It's funny. I expected Illinois to be favored, and I expected most people to pick the Illini over Missouri, just as I expected some people to pick Colorado over Missouri in the preseason rankings. I knew it would happen...but it still somewhat surprised me to see the complete and total assumption that not only will Illinois win, but they'll easily cover on the way to a 9-3(ish) season. Never mind Missouri's role in that outcome, let's focus on just Illinois for a second. A 9-3 season would result in a Top 25 finish. Here's a graph showing Illinois' S&P+ game score for each game in the last two seasons. The #25 team in the country has finished with an S&P+ of 224.75 and 224.59 the last two years, so let's make the baseline for "Top 25 performance" a 225.0.

Illinois has only played seven of its 25 games above a Top 25 level the last two years, and three of those performances came in a hot streak in late-2007. They have a few players who are top-end talents (Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Martez Wilson, maybe Jarred Fayson), but they have pretty well-defined holes in other areas, and even the above-mentioned players haven't developed much (outside of Juice) in their time in Champaign. People are drawn to the potential in guys like Juice and Benn, however, and they overestimate how much impact just two people can have on a team.

Now, this is not to say that Illinois can't finish 9-3 or so--if they survive the opening stretch of games (Missouri on Saturday, Ohio State on 9/26, Penn State on 10/3), their final eight games are all projected within seven points. They could technically win all seven of those and finish upwards of 9-3 or 10-2, depending on how Saturday goes. Or hey...Ohio State and Penn State both have deficiencies...technically they could sneak in and pull an upset there too. But that's the best-case scenario. The reality is that, if Illinois loses on Saturday (not that anybody's predicting them to), they're staring a 1-3 start in the face, meaning they'll have to go 5-3 in the aforementioned closely-projected games just to get to bowl eligibility. The projections say they'll go 6-2 in that stretch (with a 3.1-point loss to Minny and a 4.9-point loss to Cincy) and finish at 7-5. If we were creating a bell curve of likely Illinois outcomes this year, I would say that 7-5 is in the middle of the curve, not 8-4 or 9-3. The Football Outsiders projections hate Illinois (projection: 4-8), and while my numbers like them a more than that, I think the odds of them living up to the best-case projections aren't tremendously high. Possible (their upside is certainly enticing), but not probable.

Alright, to the unit previews:

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Offense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Quarterback

What else is there to say about Juice Williams at this point? There is a bigger contrast of good and bad analysis with him than there was about even Brad Smith. He has a bazooka for an arm, he can buy time with his legs, he looks like a great quarterback in terms of the eyeball test, and he beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2007...but Illinois is just 16-21 in his three years in Champaign, 14-11 in the last two. Guys calling Illinois games can't help but gush about him, but while Illinois scored 42 points in a shootout with Missouri and 47 against Eastern Illinois, they only scored 20 against UL-Lafayette, and they only averaged about 21 points per game against teams with winning records last year--decent, but certainly not great.

Missouri stopped the Illinois passing game last year with sacks. Stryker Sulak had three, Brock Christopher one, and Tommy Chavis one. Well, all three of those guys are gone. Missouri will need their athletic new ends to beat the Illinois tackles and get in Juice's face if Missouri is going to win this game. He's mobile, but he does linger in the pocket looking to make a throw, and that gives the lawfirm of Smith, Smith and Coulter a chance to attack.

Running Back

Yes, Daniel Dufrene averaged a decent 5.7 yards per carry in 2008, and yes, Illinois was a not-terrible 44th in the country in Rushing S&P+. But there were two main factors attributed to that: 1) Juice Williams was a solid running threat, and he's not a RB, 2) the offensive line was quite good. The running backs themselves did not acquit themselves well. Dufrene was one of the nation's leaders in worthless yards, averaging only 0.28 PPP despite the decent yards per carry figure. Jason Ford, was just barely better, at 0.31 PPP. In limited action, Mikel Leshoure posted only a 0.21. As means of comparison, Juice Williams averaged 0.34, and Derrick Washington averaged 0.48.

As a whole, this unit was the worst in the Big Ten in terms of POE. ... For Illinois, their RBs' POE was -4.9, meaning they gained 4.9 points fewer than what the typical, average D1 unit would gain in their carries against their opponents. ...

If there's any hope for this unit, it's that three of the four listed RBs are only sophomores now. While Dufrene has likely topped out his development, Ford, Leshoure, and Pollard (particularly Ford) still might have potential. But how much improvement can you make in one year?

Illinois fans are virulent that their RBs are the real deal, and who knows...maybe an offseason did them good. But last year they were quite unimpressive. Thanks to the fact that they were usually losing the field position battle due to turnovers and brutal special teams, they had plenty of opportunities for empty yardage before stalling and not converting yards into points. That will need to change if they're going to come anywhere close to living up to some people's expectations.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The single strongest unit Illinois has, the WR corps is also Illinois' most unique unit, with two burners in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, and Jeff Cumberland, who is big even for a tight end.

Benn and Cumberland return, into [Will] Judson's shoes steps Florida transfer Jarred Fayson. Fayson, a former 4-star signee from Tampa, caught 13 passes for 157 yards and 3 TDs in two years in Gainesville, while adding 33 rushes for 215 yards and a TD. He's an interesting run-catch dual threat, and he could be a nice complement. If he's more consistent than Judson, who caught one pass or fewer in seven of 12 games in 2008, this receiving corps will improve. That alone could improve Juice Williams's numbers more than any last-second development Juice could make on his own.

Meanwhile, Michael Hoomanawanui was a distinctly average tight end, producing 0.36 Points Over Expected in 2008, good for #49 in the country.

Offensive Line

The Illini O-line in 2008 was pretty good at run blocking (29th in Line Yards+) and below-average at pass blocking (68th in Adjusted Sack Rate). Now, the sack rate figure is directly tied to a quarterback's ability to avoid a sack, and maybe Juice just hung in the pocket too much, but it's the best stat we have to work with right now, and it suggests what it suggests. They return two senior starters in Jon Asamoah and Eric Block, plus a promising sophomore in Jeff Allen, who started some games as a true freshman last year. In terms of experience, they don't have a particularly high or low amount, and it does look like, alongside the two seniors, they could start three sophomores/redshirt freshmen, which isn't encouraging. Mizzou's defensive line did rather well against this line last year, and on September 5, both units will be less experienced than they were twelve months previous.

Missouri's run defense will probably regress at the first of the season as they learn to replace Ziggy Hood, and since run blocking was a relative strength for Illinois, the Illini might be able to create a few more holes through which Daniel Dufrene, et al, can run. But one of the biggest keys to this game will be Missouri's pass rush. As mentioned above, Mizzou racked up the drive-killing sacks on Juice last year, and while they should have very fast, attacking linebackers, if Missouri has to blitz to get to Juice, that could mean trouble. If (IF) Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian Coulter are as good as they're supposed to be, then the Illinois line is average enough that they could have some success, and it could turn the game.

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Defense

Illinois: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defensive Line

The highest-ranked, most athletic unit on the Illini defense in 2008, the defensive line faces having to replace starting DEs Derek Walker and Will Davis and DT David Lindquist. The athleticism is still there, but the depth is not, especially after the requested transfer of highly-rated RSFr Reggie Elis. Doug Pilcher likely returns to the starting lineup after 20 starts in 2006-07, and if Jerry Brown can stay above water academically, he should be pretty good (plus, he had two solid games against Mizzou in 2007-08). At DT Corey Liuget came on strong last year, earning a couple starts as a true freshman. This unit is still the likely strength of the defense, but there's more uncertainty here than there was last year.

The Illinois defensive line got deeper with the return of Josh Brent to the team after a DUI-related suspension. Guys like Brent, Lindquist, and Liuget are very athletic for defensive tackles, and if they suddenly learn how to put together down-to-down success, then look out. Really, it's the same with Walker, Davis, Brown, and the ends. The athleticism of the line is undeniable, but there is nothing (yet) suggesting that they can be consistent enough to carry a relatively unproven defensive back seven.

Linebackers

The bad news is, the Illini LB corps loses all-conference performer Brit Miller and two part-time starters in Rodney Pittman and Sam Carson. The good news is, the unit really wasn't that good with them, so they might not miss them that much (at least not Pittman and Carson). People are expecting big things out of former 5-star recruit Martez Wilson, and they could be right--his sophomore performance in 2008 (73 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR) was pretty solid. Then again, it's not Weatherspoonian ('Spoon as a sophomore: 130 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 2 FF, 1 FR), so we'll see how much improvement he can do.

As Wilson goes, so goes the Illinois LB corps. Beyond him, things get dicey, and while they are certainly athletic (sensing a trend?), they were a weak unit last year and they're far less experienced this year. If the UI defensive line isn't plugging holes, Derrick Washington could take advantage of this unit again like he did last year.

Secondary

Lots of upperclassmen here, I can say that much. No Vontae Davis, though. Bellamy and Hardeman both racked up some tackles last year, but the secondary needed to produce infinitely more turnovers and opportunities than they did in 2008, and now they lose their lockdown corner. There isn't a lot of new blood here, which would probably be a good thing; I picture this unit as a bunch of Hardy Ricks's. Athletic, pretty smart, decent hitters...and not a whole lot of play-making ability. With good decision-making from Gabbert, this is potentially a good unit for the green Missouri WR corps to start with.

Once again, if the defensive line isn't generating pressure, there's nothing to suggest that this unit will make too many positive plays. The star quality of guys like Juice, Benn, and Wilson have distracted people from the fact that the Illinois defense is relatively devoid of playmakers, and while they're experienced enough to potentially take advantage of Missouri's green quarterback...well, let's just say that I'm not too worried if Gabbert has time to make the throws he wants to make.

Special Teams

You see Benn's name atop the list of punt returners, and you think this could be a pretty good special teams unit, but...it wasn't. He did next to nothing fielding punts--Illinois was one of the worst punt returning teams in the country. A.J. Jenkins was solid returning kickoffs, and Eller was curiously a better kicker the further out the ball was placed (he was 1-for-4 on FGs from 30-39 yards...and 8-for-10 from 40+), but the net punting (and, as Jeremy Maclin can attest, net kicking in general) was atrocious. I am still tweaking my special teams unit rankings, but it's safe to say that this unit was pretty damn poor. All four starters return, but there is plenty of tweaking to be done here.

Under Ron Zook, Illinois has pretty consistently failed in the field position battle, and unless the special teams unit is improved, they will once again be running uphill most of the season. Hopefully Missouri's new-fangled return game is just good enough to take advantage and win the fight for field position.

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Three Keys to the Game

The Line

If Illinois is smart, the focus of their entire defensive gameplan is showing as many different looks as possible and trying to confuse Blaine Gabbert and get him thinking way too much. There will be serious pressure on the Missouri offensive line to not only open holes for Derrick Washington (he doesn't need much), but also give Gabbert time to breathe and make the right decision. Aside from Derek Walker's great pick six, last year Illinois didn't get to Chase Daniel much. They probably don't need to get to Gabbert as much as Daniel to get him scatter-brained, but they still need to get to him a little. If the Missouri offensive line is as good as we think it could be, Gabbert and Washington will be able to do their thing, and the Tigers won't miss too many beats offensively. But if not...well...Missouri's not going to win this game.

On the flipside, Missouri's defensive line will need to at least put together a similar effort as they got last year against the Illinois offensive line. When Juice got time to throw last year, Missouri was in a world of pain, and while we think the world of Smith, Smith, and Coulter (and Jaron Baston), clearly we don't know what they're capable of until they prove it on Saturday.

The bottom line here is that if Missouri's offensive and defensive lines win their respective battles, it will be very hard for Illinois to win this game. Yes, Missouri is unproven in a lot of areas, but if Washington finds room to run, if Gabbert has time to pass, and if Juice is not sitting comfortably in the pocket, Missouri will almost certainly win...unless the next two keys go massively in favor of the Illini.

The Bomb

If Illinois is smart, they will go deep early and often. It worked last year, but they didn't really try it until the game was out of reach. We've heard that Mizzou's cornerbacks are better than a year ago, but they'll have to prove it very quickly. I mean, I would go deep on the first play from scrimmage. If Carl Gettis, Kevin Rutland and company really can provide Mizzou with solid coverage, and Kenji Jackson, Hardy Ricks, etc., can do better than Justin Garrett over the top, then the scariest weapon in the Illinois arsenal could be neutralized. But that's a big if, isn't it?

Meanwhile, Missouri's biggest offensive weakness could be in the same vein--the big play. At this point, I'm pretty confident in the ability of Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Jared Perry, and Michael Egnew to get open underneath and keep Mizzou moving at least somewhat efficiently. But as the stats have proven many times over, the only thing more important than efficiency is explosiveness (because it leads to easy scores), and...does Missouri have any in the passing game? Can Danario Alexander emerge as the big-play threat we've always thought he could be? Can Rolandis Woodland give us, at the very least, a "once or twice a game" deep-ball threat?

The Turnover

I almost feel like it's a cop-out for me to say turnovers are important. Of course they're important. Everybody knows that. But did you know they were this important?

Mizzou and Illinois Versus Turnover Margins, 2006-08
Turnover Margin	Illinois	Missouri
+	7-1	17-0
0	4-5	7-3
-	5-15	6-8

Missouri is undefeated in the last three years when winning the turnover battle, while Illinois is 7-1. Extrapolating from this, you could say that Missouri has an 86.5% chance of winning the game if they're on the positive side of the turnover margin, while Illinois has a 68.1% chance of winning if they win on turnovers. Yards, first downs, S&P+, whatever...you will not find another stat with that direct an impact on the overall outcome of the game than that. Last year, Missouri and Illinois split on turnovers. The year before, turnovers made all the difference in the world (hello, Pig Brown). No matter how good (or not) these two teams truly are, a poor throw or a clean strip could make the difference in the game. That is almost always the case, but it seems even more the case in this matchup.

Prediction

The more I think about Illinois, the more I believe that this game will come down to line play. Whoever wins there, wins. Naturally, because I'm a Missouri fan I like Missouri's chances, but I also know that an outsider could make the case that Missouri fans are completely underestimating their own personnel losses, and that we could be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday. So I'm leaning on the numbers for now. The projections say that Missouri isn't going to fall off nearly as much as everybody thought, or put another way, the numbers say that Missouri was high enough above most teams that a fall-off should still result in a good season. They say Mizzou wins by 10, so I'll fill in the points...we'll say 38-28 Mizzou.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

Mizzou 2009, Part Ten: Defensive Line

Bill C. — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:00:10 -0000

Okay, so we've worked ourselves into an optimistic frenzy on offense (it's August--show me a fanbase that isn't excited right now). What about the defense? Buzz kill or buzzsaw?

Defensive Line

This pic was too good not to use again.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Jaron Baston (6'1, 305, Sr.)
DE Aldon Smith (6'5, 255, RSFr.)
DE Jacquies Smith (6'4, 250, So.)
DT Terrell Resonno (6'6, 295, So.)
DE Brian Coulter (6'4, 250, Sr.)
DT Dominique Hamilton (6'6, 300, So.)
DE Brad Madison (6'4, 260, RSFr.)
DT Jimmy Burge (6'2, 285, RSFr.)
DT George White (6'4, 280, RSFr.)
DE Marcus Malbrough (6'5, 255, RSFr.)
DT Chris Earnhardt (6'5, 270, So.)
DT Andy Maples (6'4, 310, Sr.)
DT Bart Coslet (6'5, 260, Jr.)
DT Mark Ellis (6'2, 270, Sr.)

1. What kind of every-down potential do we have in our three-headed end monster? We all know about the athletic potential of Jacquies Smith, Aldon Smith, and Brian God Coulter. We're all excited about the possibilities of these guys rushing the passer. But you can only really pin your ears back and attack on Passing Downs...you have to force Passing Downs first. Mizzou was very good against the run last year, and while a lot of that has to do with Sean Weatherspoon and the linebackers, credit too goes to Ziggy Hood, Jaron Baston, Tommy Chavis, and Stryker Sulak, last year's starting D-line.

We haven't seen the lawfirm of Smith, Coulter, and Smith in every-down action yet, nor do we know who will be starting next to Baston at DT, so we don't know how good or bad the line will be against the run. We know that at 275+ pounds, Chavis was seen as more of a run stopping end than a pass rusher, and we know that nobody in the current corps of ends is that big. But clearly pure weight doesn't tell the story. TCU, Texas, and Tennessee were #1-3 against the run (according to Rushing S&P+) last year, and while they had some reasonably big guys (Texas' Henry Melton was around 280, Tennessee's Robert Ayers 270), most DEs on these squads were within the same 250-265 range as Mizzou's.

Can stats tell us anything about run support? Maybe a little. Here are the percentages of tackles each of last year's Mizzou linemen made against the run or pass (sacks count against the pass, FYI).

Jacquies Smith: 87% of tackles came against the run
Jaron Baston: 80%
Tommy Chavis: 72%
Ziggy Hood: 71%
Brian Coulter: 68%
Stryker Sulak: 61%

So if we conclude that Jacquies Smith really is a versatile player in the passing game (that's the perception, anyway), then he must be pretty good against the run. His "against the run" totals were higher Chavis', and Coulter's were higher than Sulak's, so consider that at least a small test passed. (And yes, they could have had high "against the run" %'s because they did nothing against the pass, not because they were particularly good against the run. I think we've made it clear that there are no wonderful lineman statistics. This is what we have to work with.)

What if we just looked at "successful" tackles (i.e. tackles that prevented a successful play for the offense)?

Jacquies Smith: 90% of successful tackles came against the run
Jaron Baston: 78%
Brian Coulter: 75%
Tommy Chavis: 73%
Ziggy Hood: 69%
Stryker Sulak: 51%

Hmm. That suggests that Coulter did more against the run than Sulak did...and that most of the successful plays J. Smith made came against the run. That's at least a little comforting, right?

2. Who's winning the battle to start next to Jaron Baston? No freaking idea whatsoever. At least I'm honest, right? Here's where it's bad that we're completely reliant on the practice reports of Dave Matter and Gabe Dearmond. We haven't heard much of Terrell Resonno or Dominique Hamilton. Monday's depth chart updates show that it's still Resonno in the lead, though neither have distinguished themselves. Hamilton looked really good in the spring game, but that is, after all, just one scrimmage of many.

3. Is there a sleeper we haven't talked much about? It appears about thirteen scholarships have been spent on the defense line at the moment, yet we've only talked about six guys. Are any of the others posing serious threats for playing time or stardom? Not really. Marcus Malbrough was not practicing particularly well, but he had a nice Saturday scrimmage, lodging a TFL and a sack. At DT, it sounds like the biggest mover has been redshirt freshman Jimmy Burge, who has jumped ahead of both George White and Chris Earnhardt to second string. It sounded like freshman Marvin Foster was making a threat for playing time before injuring his knee last week, so I'm thinking for the most part we're looking at a six-man line rotation...at least as far as the playmakers go. The winner of the Brad Madison/Malbrough battle will likely see the field, as will the winner of the Burge/Earnhardt/White battle, but I'm guessing that for 2009, at least, they won't be serious threats to make plays as much as eat space. It's doubtful we'll hear too much about anyone beyond Smith/Coulter/Smith and Baston/Resonno/Hamilton.

Mizzou 2009, Part Three: My Guys

RPT — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos " Photo: STL Today

Kenji Jackson: One of my guys in 2009

Browse more photos "

Part One: Blaine Gabbert and the Four-Year Precedent - Why establishing expectations is so difficult

Part Two: Putting 2008 to bed

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For the past two years, our colleagues at Burnt Orange Nation have run what's become one of my favorite features, a post titled "My Guys."

In essence, PB, proprietor of the site and SBN College head honcho, picks out the five guys he thinks might be flying just a little too far below the radar for his tastes. Here's how PB explains it in this year's version of My Guys:

One of my favorite pieces to read prior to each MLB season is Joe Sheehan's "My Guys" column, penned before each year to highlight those players Joe is eyeballing for a breakout season, yet who aren't receiving big time hype. Translating that to Texas football, I'm looking for those guys (limit of five) who might surprise a lot of folks with how well they play this year -- those with the highest production-to-hype ratio.

This year, I've decided to shamelessly steal emulate and honor the My Guys concept. For the first time, allow me to introduce "My Guys" for the 2009 season after the jump.

MY GUYS, 2009

Kenji Jackson -- Call me a sucker for fiery Mizzou safeties who wear No. 13. As Bill C. and I have discussed before, "Don't call me Ken-jee" Ken-jah Jackson would have been an all-American team if they composed a team of players who almost made plays in 2008. As a true freshman, he worked his way into starts against K-State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Northwestern. Despite limited time, Jackson finished seventh on the team in tackles in 2008 (despite the stat killing "DNP" against Illinois), ahead of Ziggy Hood, Luke Lambert, and Stryker Sulak, among others. In the last two seasons, the MU pass D has had no shortage of DBs willing to hit. Jackson certainly showed the ability to hit on defense and special teams in 2008, and if he can make up those couple of inches he always seemed shy of in coverage in 2008, he could be one of the most pleasant revelations for the MU defense in 2009.

Jerrell Jackson -- Not counting TE Andrew Jones, Wes Kemp was "the big get" for the receiving corps in the recruiting class of 2008. Little (if any) hype went the way of Jerrell Jackson, the 2-star athlete from Houston, until fall camp started last August (although, we have to give kudos to Ridiculous Matt/Mizzourobot, who called him as his sleeper in the class). Even though every single receiver Missouri has recruited in the last two years has made some kind of reference to being "the next Jeremy Maclin," Jackson may actually get the chance. Jackson was quiet outside of the SEMO game in 2008, but his dual threat potential has had "those in the know" salivating for the last 12 months. Missouri's success on offense over the last few years has been predicated upon depth of weapons; if teams load up on Derrick Washington and shade their coverages on Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, Jackson and Jones become prime candidates for big years.

Andrew Gachkar -- All the love for the linebacking corps is usually directed toward Sean Weatherspoon, and rightfully so. Luke Lambert may not be a star, but he's certainly a known commodity. In the spring game, new DC Dave Steckel looked committed to keeping Missouri's base 4-3 on the field rather than changing to the nickel set Missouri favored for the majority of 2008. There's always the distinct possibility that Missouri goes back to the base nickel with Carl Gettis in the slot in 2009, but that will largely depend on the play of Gachkar. Much like linebacking counterpart Will Ebner, I've raved about Gachkar's motor and pursuit. In Steckel's defense, which appears to favor pursuit above all else, Gachkar is the kind of linebacker that can make or break the system. Here's to hoping "My Guy" makes it rather than breaks it.

Aldon Smith -- I wrestled with including Smith, considering he's been seeing a lot of love from Dave Matter and Gabe DeArmond this offseason. Considering he's a "non-starter" (although he'll reportedly see significant snaps), I feel comfortable enough calling him under the radar. Practice reports have indicated that he, alongside Brian Coulter and Jacquies Smith, have created a major source of depth at defensive end. Some have gone as far to say the Coulter/Smith/Smith trio (law firm?) may be the best D-end group in recent history -- history that includes Sulak and Mizzou sackmaster Brian Smith. Good enough for Gabe and Dave means good enough for me.

Kip Edwards -- Four defensive players on My Guys, including two defensive backs? Blasphemy, right? Admittedly, this pick may be a bit of a stretch. Edwards may have a battle ahead of him to fight off Kevin Rutland, Munir Prince and Trey Hobson for the cornerback spot opposite Carl Gettis, as well as a battle to beat DeVion Moore and others for the right to return. What comes to mind for Edwards in what little I've seen of him is "fluidity." His motion in the defensive backfield seemed extremely smooth in the spring game, as he glided to pick off a telegraphed out route from Blaine Gabbert.

My Guys Second Team/Honorable Mention: Will Ebner, Gahn McGaffie, Kendial Lawrence, Josh Tatum, Zaviar Gooden

With that, I turn it to all of you in the RMN community: Who are "your guys" in 2009 and why?

Mizzou Links, 7-29-09

Bill C. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:46:06 -0000

Yeah, just a BOATLOAD of links this morning...don't even know where to start...

Alright, I guess we start with Mizzou's media day performances, complete with video from Dave Matter and Palestra.net.

Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon from Dave Matter on Vimeo.

Missouri NT Jaron Baston from Dave Matter on Vimeo.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

How much will Texas miss Brian Orakpo?

Browse more photos »

Yesterday we took a look at a Texas offense that could be described as anything between "uncertain" and "great." It all basically depends on how well Colt McCoy can duplicate his passing downs success from 2008. On the defense, it all depends on how UT replaces Brian "O-Sack-Po" Orakpo. All of the other pieces are in place, and there are plenty of super-duper, highly-recruited players at the DE position, but as I mentioned yesterday with the offense, how quickly some guys can turn potential into production will dictate whether Texas is playing for a national title in 2009, or just maybe a Big 12 title.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 146.4 (#2)
Success Rate+: 130.7 (#2)
PPP+: 167.7 (#3)

Standard Downs S&P+: 130.6 (#3)
Passing Downs S&P+: 145.0 (#4)

Red Zone S&P+: 163.0 (#1)

Q1 S&P+: 162.5 (#2)
Q2 S&P+: 126.3 (#14)
Q3 S&P+: 156.7 (#2)
Q4 S&P+: 108.3 (#37)

1st Down S&P+: 129.0 (#5)
2nd Down S&P+: 132.1 (#6)
3rd Down S&P+: 147.7 (#3)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 147.1 (#2)
Rushing SR+: 133.7 (#2)
Rushing PPP+: 169.5 (#3)

Standard Downs: 119.3 (#20)
Passing Downs: 165.4 (#4)

Redzone: 165.8 (#3)

Line Yards+: 124.6 (#10)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 148.9 (#3)
Passing SR+: 128.2 (#4)
Passing PPP+: 174.3 (#4)

Standard Downs: 144.6 (#3)
Passing Downs: 144.0 (#9)

Redzone: 174.5 (#3)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.7% (#5)

Whereas the UT offense saw disproportionate success on Passing Downs compared to Standard Downs, the UT defense was pretty consistently great no matter the down, quarter, or type of play (run/pass).

They ranked in the top five for both SR+ and PPP+ in Rushing, Passing, and overall defense.
They had the #1 red zone defense in the country.
They were Top 10 in both Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate.
Really, there are only two sources of variance: their rushing defense was better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and they were much better in Q1/Q3 than Q2/Q4. Of course, if you had to choose a time to be great, you should choose Q1/Q3--without Q1/Q3 strength, Q4 may not matter.
Looking at all categories, you have to go pretty far to find a weakness. Here's one: they ranked in the nation's bottom ten in Q4 Rushing Success Rate+, Q4 Rushing Line Yards+, and Q4 Rushing S&P+. Of course, they only played four games decided by less than 20 points, so a large majority of Q4 rushes took place with UT's #1 defense off the field.
The Pass Defense rankings are the most impressive considering a) they improved from 29th in 2007 to 3rd in 2008, and b) they did so with two freshmen starting at safety.

Defensive Line

Lamarr Houston brings experience to an otherwise relatively green line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #2 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Lamarr Houston (6'2, 290, Sr.)
DE Eddie Jones (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DE Sam Acho (6'3, 260, Jr.)
DT Kheeston Randall (6'5, 290, So.)
DE Alex Okafor (6'4, 240, Fr.)
DT Ben Alexander (6'0, 310, Sr.)
DE Dravannti Johnson (6'2, 232, RSFr.)
DT Kyle Kriegel (6'5, 265, Fr.)

Sophomore tackle Michael Wilcoxon left the team very recently, which hurts depth a bit. At least, it hurts experience a bit. Chances are, at least one true freshman will break into the rotation behind Lamarr Houston and Kheeston Randall. Kyle Kriegel was in for the spring, but 4-star freshmen Calvin Howell and Derek Johnson should be ready to fight it out for a spot in August. The 'Horns will miss underrated Roy Miller (11 TFL, 28 QB Hurries) at tackle, but Houston (7 TFL, 11 QBH) was solid, and Randall has a nice pedigree. The experience from Houston and Ben Alexander can't hurt either.

Whereas UT was good at DT last year, they were great at DE, thanks in part to Brian Orakpo and his 19 TFL, 11.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, and 30 QBH. Seriously, we at RMN really liked Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis--they combined for 21.5 TFL, 13.5 sacks, and 12 QBH. Granted, they forced a really impressive eight fumbles, but still. Orakpo was ridiculously good. Also gone: RB-turned-DE Henry Melton (10 TFL, 4 sacks). That's a lot of sacks and hurries to replace.

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

The components are certainly all here for the 'Horns to have another great D-line--it's just that it's always hard to assume such a thing when you lose somebody as great as Orakpo. The odds are in their favor, though.

Linebackers

Sergio Kindle: too much of a stud to play just one position.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Sergio Kindle (6'4, 255, Sr.)
Roddrick Muckelroy (6'2, 235, Sr.)
Jared Norton (6'3, 237, Sr.)
Keenan Robinson (6'3, 232, So.)
Tariq Allen (6'2, 245, Fr.)
Emmanuel Acho (6'2, 235, So.)

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Secondary

Sadly, Blake Gideon is thus far remembered for the play he didn't make.

2008 Unit Ranking: #4 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Earl Thomas (5'10, 197, So.)
S Blake Gideon (6'1, 200, So.)
CB Chykie Brown (6'1, 187, Jr.)
CB Deon Beasley (5'10, 180, Sr.)
CB Aaron Williams (6'1, 189, So.)
CB Curtis Brown (6'1, 185, Jr.)
S Christian Scott (6'1, 209, So.)
S Nolan Brewster (6'2, 210, So.)

That such a young unit led such an impressive move up the passing rankings (from 29th to 3rd) is rather astounding. With freshman safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon holding down the fort at safety, and a batch of solid (mostly young) corners, UT had the best pass defense in the Big 12, and it's hard to imagine that changing with most of the key cast of characters coming back in 2009. Of course, what is most memorable out the secondary are the two plays they didn't make--Gideon dropping the INT, then Beasley (I think) whiffing on the tackle of Crabtree at the end of the Tech game--but that's unfair since this unit made most of the rest of the plays they needed to make.

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

Special Teams

Google searching for Hunter Lawrence, I also found this pic.

2008 Unit Ranking: #3 Net Punting, #72 Punt Returns, #32 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Hunter Lawrence (6'0, 187, Sr.) - 60-for-60 PAT, 10-for-12 FG (long: 46)
P John Gold (6'3, 212, Jr.) - 39.6 Net Avg
KR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 26.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.) - 10.7 Avg, 1 TD

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Summary

If the Texas defensive line can approximate last year's success, then the linebackers and secondary should be more than good enough to keep Texas in the Top 5 of the defensive S&P+ rankings. Six starters return among the back seven, and the backups were highly-touted recruits. It all hinges on line success, however. There is no way to underestimate how disruptive the D-line--particularly Orakpo, Miller, and (when he played DE) Kindle--was, and how integral it was to UT's success. Opposing quarterbacks having almost no time to throw cleanly definitely a green secondary, and while the secondary won't need quite as much help in 2009, they'll still need some. Find a solid rush end to line up opposite Kindle--be it Acho, Jones, Okafor, or whoever--and UT will have a national title-caliber defense.

---

Projections on Friday.

Mizzou Links, 7-15-09

Bill C. — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 10:39:38 -0000

First, the Mizzou links.

Trevor Coleman has officially signed with the Mariners. Ryan Ampleman, come on down. You're the man now, dog (sorry, was channeling Sean Connery there...PUNCH the keys!!).

PowerMizzou checks in on Florida OL Jonathan Feliciano, a Miami "commit" who has committed to visiting other schools, including Missouri.

Dave Matter asks the question everybody was thinking. Hey Stryker Sulak...what’s worse, getting drafted by the NFL’s most dysfunctional organization or getting dropped by the league’s most dysfunctional organization?

Demarre Carroll goes for 9 (on 4-7 shooting with an and-one) with 4 boards and a couple of assists in 24 minutes yesterday in his Vegas (baby Vegas) Summer League game. The Grizz are now off until Saturday before closing out with back-to-back games this weekend.

Meanwhile, Leo Lyons sees 14 minutes of playing time for the Cavs, scoring 6 (on 2-4 from the field and 2-2 from the line) while grabbing 4 boards (good Leo) and collecting 4 fouls (bad Leo). The Cavs are back in action tomorrow.

Okay, that's pretty much it for Mizzou-related tidbits. Luckily there are a ton of other links to share...

National Championship Issue takes a look at BCS conference attendance and just how friggin' different things are when an FCS team is the opponent.

Roll Bama Roll is starting to think that conference title games aren't the way to go...

Somewhat Mizzou-related: Hail to the Orange looks at the Vontae Davis-less Illinois secondary.

SI's Stewart Mandel takes a look at the ten best early non-con games in 2009 (is there anybody who hasn't made a list like this yet?). A couple Big 12 teams make the list...OSU-Georgia and NU-Virginia Tech...

Finally, there is fail...and then there is FAIL...

Mizzou Links, 7-14-09

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:31:34 -0000

Getting a late start this morning...thank you, Mediacom Internet, for deciding to go out once again...much appreciated...

We start with a link to an outstanding Trib look at previous Mizzou players and their MLB All-Star Game experience.

"To walk into that clubhouse and be around those stars for a couple of days, it’s almost as if you didn’t even feel like you belonged," said [Phil] Bradley, who struck out in the eighth inning against Montreal reliever Jeff Reardon in his only at-bat of the NL’s 6-1 win. "But when you play for Seattle, you know you deserved it."

He did. It’s just that nobody saw it coming. Not so soon.

The former Missouri quarterback/outfielder, a third-round draft pick by Seattle in 1981, progressed steadily through the minors and hit .301 in part-time duty with the Mariners in 1984.

What he lacked was power. Before the 1985 season, he had no clear place on the Mariners’ roster and no homers in 389 big league at-bats.

Mariners officials, looking at his 6-foot, 180-pound frame, thought this would change.

"Look at that body," Seattle hitting coach Deron Johnson told the Tribune later that season. "It’s no single hitter’s."

And while we're talking baseball, here's a collection of Mizzou-related links at SimmonsField.com, and...well, an interview with Mizzou grad and celebrity softballer extraordinaire ~~Don Draper~~ Jon Hamm.

Alright, now to football. PowerMizzou continues its unit-by-unit look at the North. Now up: Linebackers and Defensive Line.

Yesterday was once again time for Case of the Mondays...

● Does Dave Steckel’s promotion alone impact the defense? Does the veteran coach’s no-BS personality create a hungrier group than last year’s experienced but inconsistent D? Will he simplify calls, coverages and blitz packages?

...

● What are the best position battles? Here are a few: Defensive tackles Terrell Resonno vs. Dominique Hamilton vs. George White vs. Brian Earnhardt … Left guards Austin Wuebbels vs. Jayson Palmgren vs. Travis Ruth … No. 3 linebacker: Andrew Gachkar vs. Will Ebner vs. Andrew Wilson vs. Josh Tatum vs. Jeff Gettys … Strong safety: Hardy Ricks vs. Jarrell Harrison vs. Jasper Simmons. Lots more to discuss once camp opens.

Dave Matter also found a quick quote on Stryker Sulak's wonderful release from the Raiders...

"Shocked is the best way to put it," a source told the Web site. "This is a good kid who plays football, hunts and fishes. This is very dysfunctional. I'm shocked that they didn't even call him to let him know or call his agent. ... He has just been back home working out and getting ready for camp."

If you're into such a thing, PowerMizzou's got a photo gallery up from Lorenzo Williams' camp this past weekend...

Looks like Mizzou's got a new Softball assistant...

Not directly Mizzou-related, but Dr. Saturday takes a look at Turner Gill's Buffalo Bulls, and...yeah, it's simply amazing how lucky they got last year. I love Gill, but odds are they're in for quite a fall this year.

Finally, since we were discussing him a couple of days ago, I thought I'd link to Bad Left Hook's excellent recap of Arturo Gatti's career. He won't be remembered as a great boxer (he was destroyed by the two great boxers he faced), but...four Fights of the Year in less than a decade? Good god, he was fun to watch.

Surfin' SBN: Draft Edition

RPT — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Michael Norris - AP

Missouri defensive tackle Evander Hood reacts as he talks on a cellphone with the Pittsburgh Steelers after they selected him 32nd overall in the first round of the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/The Amarillo Globe News, Michael Norris)

Browse more photos »

There's not much need to tell you that it was a banner weekend for Missouri football, as six Tigers found themselves en route to new homes after officially entering the record books as picks in the 2009 NFL Draft. However, just in case you weren't paying attention, it was a banner day for SB Nation's NFL blogs, as well. Each blog had a ridiculous amount of team-specific information, and hopefully you've managed to find your way to the SBN site of your favorite franchise.

With the craziness of the weekend now wrapped up, let's take a look at what our SBN brethren are saying about the former Tigers.

Jeremy Maclin: Philadelphia Eagles (Bleeding Green Nation)

BGN: A Look at Jeremy Maclin, Fox29 Feature

BGN: With two guy blazing fast playmakers in Jeremy Maclin & Desean Jackson the Eagles WR corps looks to be set for the next few years. Maclin and Jackson could combine to make the Eagles offense into one of the most dangerous vertical threats in the NFL.

(snip)

The Eagles saw the guy they wanted and moved up to ensure they got him. We'll see what happens from here on out this weekend, but Donovan McNabb can rest easy knowing he's got at least one dynamic offensive threat this offseason.

Total Response? Site leaders seem in favor, some of the community seems to question the pick a bit more.

Ziggy Hood: Pittsburgh Steelers (Behind The Steel Curtain)

BTSC: Selection, Draft Grades, Which pick are you most excited about? (See Poll), Colbert and Tomlin on Ziggy, Day 1 Thoughts, Ziggy talks to the Media, Stay tuned for my Q&A with BTSC

BTSC: It really didn't take me long at all to warm up to this pick quite a bit. GRADE: A

BTSC: I've been full of Ziggy-love since I started looking into the DL prospects, and we got him while staying put. There's a lot to like about him: he's got good size for a 3-4 DE (it'd be nice to have another inch or two, but he still has long arms), he was productive in college, he stood out among top competition at the Senior Bowl, he had absolutely fantastic tests at the combine (which tells me he has a ton of upside), he could grow into both a good pass rusher and a good run stuffer, and he should be able to drop into coverage on occasion, too. Nothing has stood out more to me, though, than how coachable and how good of a teammate everyone says he is. I think he's an absolutely perfect fit as a Steeler and as a one gap 5 technique 3-4 zone blitz DE. He was a very solid value at one of our biggest needs.

Coach MIke Tomlin: Ziggy Hood is a Steeler type of player – there are no holes in this guy. We felt good about the information that we acquired on this man after the Combine that he really wasn’t under consideration to come in here for a visit. He is a high character guy; he plays; he has a hot motor. He loves the game of football. He was described by many members of his team who went high today as their guy.

GM Kevin Colbert: It was exciting to see him available when we were picking at (number) 32. He was just somebody that we felt good about from the first time that we scouted him until when we saw him at the Senior Bowl. When we met up with him at the Combine, everything kept adding up that this is a high-quality player and person.

Ziggy on the first thing Tomlin said to him on the phone: "The first thing he said, he wanted an extra long cheese coney from Sonic because that's where I used to work at."

Total Response? Site administration is fully on board with the pick, and outside of a few Maualuga apologists, most of the members seem to like the pick.

William Moore: Atlanta Falcons (The Falcoholic)

TF: 2009 Draft Grades, Second Round Report

TF: S William Moore (A-): The Falcons filled a need and went best player available here, so it's hard to quibble with what they accomplished by picking up Moore. Dimitroff has said he envisions Moore as the kind of safety that blows people up, which means we need a catchy explosives-related nickname for him. The Human Grenade, anyone?

TF: There are many who will say that Moore should have slipped even further, but you won't find me among them. He's an ideal strong safety in many ways, with the ability to the play the run, hit hard and close the distance quickly when covering tight ends and wideouts alike. The team clearly isn't completely sold on Thomas DeCoud at SS (which is a shame), but it should be a pretty fierce competition between the two in training camp.

Total Response? Site administration loves the value of the pick. Questions remain about Moore's coverage ability after his senior season. 87 percent of voters on the site say Moore is either an "instant starter," or "He's okay, I guess."

Chase Coffman: Cincinnati Bengals (Cincy Jungle)

CJ: Draft Pick (see poll), Five Questions

CJ: For a position that turned out several all-stars in the past, the Cincinnati Bengals haven't had a legitimate pass receiving tight end for a long time. This is a good value pick, but we didn't identify tight end so much as a need this year (more along the lines of next season). However, there's only positives that can be drawn from this and the Bengals offense should benefit as a result.

CJ: I thought that the Bengals made their first surprise pick with tight end Chase Coffman with their fourth overall pick (98th). Let me be clear, we're not saying it's a bad pick or that Coffman wouldn't be great benefit. In fact, Coffman could be a tremendous weapon for Carson Palmer. However, with Reggie Kelly, Ben Utecht and Matt Sherry, where would Coffman fit in? We don't suspect the team will release Kelly simply because of the respect level players and coaches have for him. Utecht is argued to be one half of the team's 2008 free agency busts (Antwan Odom the other). Matt Sherry was injured early in 2008 and never got a shot to showcase whatever talents he has.

Total Response? They question his ability to block and transition to a pro offense, but they know the receiver they're getting at a fantastic value. The poll is evidence that this community is on board with the Coffman pick.

Colin Brown: Kansas City Chiefs (Arrowhead Pride)

AP: Presenting the class, Draft pick

AP: Missouri OT Colin Brown was probably the Chiefs' biggest reach of the draft. Many draft boards had him as a 7th round, UDFA prospect. Clearly, Pioli and Haley saw something they liked in Brown so they took him in the fifth round.Perhaps Haley is contemplating a some version of the spread offense, which Brown played in at Missouri.

AP: What's interesting is that Brown played exclusively in the Mizzou spread offense. I wonder if that's an indication that Pioli and Haley think they have it figured out when it comes to scouting spread offensive linemen or if the Chiefs will be running something similar.

According to our Draft Interests Page, the Chiefs had no contact with Brown.

Total Response? No one seems sure what to make of the pick. Is Pioli taking this sucker airborne in KC?

Stryker Sulak: Oakland Raiders (Silver and Black Pride)

SaBP: Live Breakdown, Did the Empire "Stryker" Back?

SaBP: Another non-stop motor pick by the Raiders. Sulak played all 3 LB positions and as a pass rushing DE for Iowa’s [sic] defense, racking up 22.5 sacks and 38 TFL in 53 games. Cable said he was going to try him out at LB first, but he may end up being Trevor Scott v. 2.0 for the Raiders, providing a nickel specialist to tandem with the larger base DEs.

SaBP: As I begin to recap this draft I am looking up and the Colts just drafted Zack Follett out of Cal with the 236th pick of the draft.

I am a bit disappointed that he didn't make the cut, but, the more that I learn about Styker Sulan [sic], out of Mizzou, I can cut ties with Zack.

Total Response? They may not know where he's from or how to spell his name, but they seem excited about the value in the pick, outside of some who were pushing for LSU's Ricky Jean-Francois.

Arizona Cardinals Potential Draft Picks: 3-4 Outside Linebackers

Hawkwind — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 18:42:29 -0000

It's no secret that the Arizona Cardinals will look to add some youth and athleticism at their outside linebacker position. The current group of Chike Okeafor, Clark Haggans, Bertrand Berry and Travis LaBoy are serviceable but age and injuries are getting the best of them. We've spent a great deal of time profiling some 'hybrid' outside backers in the past month or so, but what if none of the highly rated prospects are available when the Cardinals pick at 31 or 63?

The Cardinals are fortunate enough to have the current depth to allow a draft pick to ease into the transition from college DE to professional OLB and there are plenty of guys who should be avaliable in the middle to later rounds. Here's a look at some prospects who the Cardinals could be interested in during the second day....

Here are the guys that we've already profiled:

But as you might expect, that's just a small sampling of possible 'hybrid' guys that could entice the Cardinals this weekend.

Paul Kruger (6'4, 263): Believe it or not, Kruger is a polarizing figure in this year's draft. Some scouts compare him to LaMarr Woodley or Aaron Kampman (who's expected to move to OLB this year), while other scouts simply don't think he has the athleticism to handle an outside linebacker spot. It's clear that he'd be an awful big OLB and his workout numbers (4.8 forty) haven't helped his case among 3-4 teams. He'll be a 24 year old rookie, one red shirt season and two years on a church mission, but his ability to battle is unquestioned. Projected Round: late 2nd to middle 3rd

Compares to: Aaron Kampman (Green Bay)

Pros - He's got solid frame that still has room to grow, if need be, and he's a decent athlete. His non-stop motor is what sustains him and he's very tough with above average strength. He does well in pursuit and is a reliable tackler. He's comfortable in space and he's a smart player who won't often get fooled by play action or misdirection. He's got some experience playing with his hand off the ground and has looked capable in coverage.

Cons - Kruger's isn't a natural athlete and looks stiff at times. He lacks top end speed and doesn't always play as powerful as his frame would indicate, especially when he plays too tall. His pass rush repertoire is very limited and he too often relies on a bull rush that worked in the Mountain West but might not generate the same results against NFL tackles. A lack of experience is also a concern considering that he only played two years at Utah.

Jason Williams (6'1, 241): Williams is one of the fastest risers in the entire draft right now after blazing the forty at his pro day to the tune of 4.46. Some teams didn't trust the time after hearing that he ran on a basketball surface so Williams responded by running again. The second time he ran on field turf and blazed even more when he turned in a 4.42. Wiliams began his college career as a strong safety before moving to OLB in 2006. Just about every NFL team has kicked the tires on Williams, regardless of defense, but he's certainly showing the athletic ability to excel in a 3-4. In his three seasons as an OLB he averaged 89 tackles, 15 for loss and five sacks per season. Projected Round: middle 3rd to 4th

Compares to: James Harrison (Pittsburgh)

Pros - His athleticism and speed are unmatched as well as his burst off of the line. He's an explosive leaper who will knock down passes at the line and he has a knack for jarring the ball loose (14 career). His experience as a strong safety makes him very comfortable in coverage and he's got the range make plays sideline to sideline. He's got a good motor and will make plays in pursuit.

Cons - His level of competition has some tempering his potential and right now he still plays like a safety against the run. He'll have to get stronger and more physical at the point of attack to be an every down player. He can get out of position when he gets to aggressive as well.

Brandon Williams (6'5 252): Williams comes off a junior season that saw him lead the Big 12 in sacks and earn 1st Team All-Big 12 honors, but most scouts feel that he should have stayed for his senior season. While there is no argument about his ability to rush the passer, his detractors point out that he offers very little against the run (but in the Big 12 what do you expect?). His draft stock took a significant hit at the combine when he ran a 4.96 forty (a 306 pound OT ran faster), but he's since improved his time at his pro day with times as high as 4.69. There's no doubt that he's a raw player who will take some time to develop but the potential is evident. Projected Round: late 3rd to 4th

Compares to: Alex Brown (Chicago)

Pros - Williams' lanky, athletic frame is has the room to add another ten to fifteen pounds with sapping his burst or speed. He's got a tremendous burst off the snap and has a decent set of pass rush moves. He has shown the ability to bend around offensive tackles and close on the quarterback. He tracks down plays in pursuit and chases plays down the line.

Cons - For everything Williams does in getting to the quarterback, he lacks the size, strength and physicality to hold the point of attack against the run. He hasn't been asked to drop into coverage much and looks stiff in space. He's also not a powerful tackler and struggles to disengage from blockers.

Zack Follett (6'2 238): Follet should be an interesting prospect for just about every 3-4 defense in the league for a couple of reasons. He's played every linebacker position after coming to California as a middle linebacker before finally ending up on the outside. He also flourished in his senior season when Cal switched to a 3-4 defense which means he's got more experience than just about every other backer in the draft. He has a history of shoulder problems and won't wow scouts with his athletic feats but he's been solid locker room guy and he's been productive where ever he lined up. He totaled 87 tackles, 23 for loss and 10.5 sacks in 2008 after averaging 63 tackles, 12.5 for loss and 5.5 sacks his previous two seasons.

Compares to: Larry Izzo (Jets)

Pros - Follett has very good strength for his size and his frame has the room add another ten to fifteen pounds. He can hold the point of attack where he's a reliable, punishing tackler. He plays with a reckless abandon when the play is in front of him and his competitive spirit drives him to make plays. He's an intimidating player who is a plus pass rusher who is also capable in coverage.

Cons - His size isn't what you'd expect from an outside backer and he's not a great athlete. He has some durability issues and his aggressiveness can get him into trouble. His lateral quickness isn't great and he doesn't have the ability make up ground when fooled.

Matt Shaughnessy (6'5 263): The report on Shaughnessy is pretty similar to Paul Kruger, except that Shaughnessy isn't very stout at the point of attack. He's a bit faster than Kruger, but not by much, and scouts go both ways on his ability to stand up and play outside linebacker. He's added over 30 pounds since showing up to Wisconsin as a 230 pound freshman so his frame is nearly maxed out but he carries it pretty well. He hasn't been as productive, in terms of sacks, as most of the guys on this (15.5 in 50 career games) but he's tough player who's played through a ton of injuries. One thing that's rather remarkable is that he's missed very little time despite several major injuries including broken fibula in the spring of '08 and tearing his ACL at the end of the 2006 season. Projected Round: late 4th to 5th

Compares to: John Engelberger (Denver)

Pros - Shaughnessy has the size and bulk to play the position and uses his height well to knock passes down. He uses his hands well to disengage from blockers and stave off cut blocks. He uses the bull rush and rip technique well as pass rush moves but the rest of his repertoire is pretty limited. He has some experience playing from a stand-up position and looks comfortable in space. He's a smart player who uses a non-stop motor and good instincts to make plays.

Cons - Shaughnessy lacks the explosive burst off the snap that outside backers need to make a difference in pass rush situations. He also needs to get stronger to hold the point of attack and he'll have to develop more pass rush moves to be effective. Injuries might have robbed him of the explosiveness that he had earlier in his career as he takes a while to get up to speed.

Henry Melton (6'4, 269): Melton was first brought up here at ROTB when he appeared in a mock draft created by one of our very own and he's an interesting yet extremely developmental prospect. He began his college career as a running back and has only been on the defensive side of the ball two seasons. As you might expect being a former running back, Melton has tons of athletic ability but is far from a finished product. He wasn't even considered a 'draftable' prospect after one season as a starter that produced 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks but a forty in the 4.5 range changed all of that. Wherever Melton ends up, patience will be key as he'll take a year or two to learn the position but the athletic ability is unquestioned. Projected Round: late 5th to 6th

Pros - With loads of athletic ability, Melton's speed, quickness and burst make him unique. He's got good balance and agility and is a force in pursuit. He's got more strength that you'd expect from a former running back and he could be a solid special teamer early in his career.

Cons - Raw, raw, raw. Melton got by on his athletic ability during his one season as a starter and his techniques and instincts have to come a long way before he can step on an NFL field. He also has an off the field incident when he was arrested for DWI in May of 2007.

Stryker Sulak (6'5, 251): Sulak's an accomplished player with four years of starting experience and he even thought about going pro after this junior. He's improved each year as at Missouri but most scouts still slap the overachiever label on him
and wonder if he'll have the ability to hold his own in space. He's dealt with some injuries during his four seasons but in 53 games he's still managed 38 tackles for loss and 22.5 sacks, including 15.5 & 10.5 respectively his senior year. Projected Round: 7th

Pros - Sulak's a decent athlete with slightly above average speed and quickness but he makes a difference with his non-stop motor and burst to close on the ball carrier. He's got good instincts and awareness and is a hard worker.

Cons - Sulak's not going to blow anyone away with his athletic ability and he'll have to get stronger to maintain the point of attack. He hasn't been asked to drop into coverage very often but he looks uncomfortable and stiff in space.

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The Arizona Cardinals enter this weekend's draft looking for at least one, if not multiple players to help energize their struggling pass rush. In a 3-4 defense, they'll need that pass rush to come from their outside linebackers. While most of these guys won't contribute much in 2009 outside of special teams, they're stacked with potential to be the future of the Arizona Cardinals. Which guy stands out to you guys? Are there any names that we missed?

SB Nation - Stryker Sulak

Beyond the Box Score Preview: Illinois

Conventional Wisdom

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SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

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2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

Mizzou 2009, Part Ten: Defensive Line

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Mizzou Links, 7-29-09

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

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Surfin' SBN: Draft Edition

Arizona Cardinals Potential Draft Picks: 3-4 Outside Linebackers