SB Nation - Tim Barnes

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-KU

Bill C. — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:19 -0000

I've gotta say, I had so much trouble paring Bill Carter's pictures down to just these 32 today. He outdid himself once again, and we are extremely grateful for his work this season. Hopefully we'll have some basketball/wrestling galleries to share over the next few months as well.

As always, click on each picture for a bigger version, and once again re-live the greatness that was (eventually) Saturday afternoon and evening.

ROCK M PHOTO GALLERY: MU-ISU

Bill C. — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:00:13 -0000

As always, Bill Carter comes through. Here, we've got some nice candid shots from the post-game hill trip, and a lovely sequence from Jerrell Jackson's long touchdown. After the jump: more goodies.

Mizzou-KSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:00:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

As always, it is much more fun to analyze a win, isn't it?

	Mizzou (38)	K-State (12)
Close %	81.2%
Field Position %	36.0%	57.5%
Leverage %	72.0%	69.9%

TOTAL
EqPts	30.9	13.5
Close Success Rate	55.6%	41.8%
Close PPP	0.61	0.18
Close S&P	1.167	0.601

RUSHING
EqPts	10.0	4.4
Close Success Rate	50.0%	29.4%
Close PPP	0.37	0.13
Close S&P	0.870	0.425
Line Yards/carry	3.94	2.75

PASSING
EqPts	20.8	9.1
Close Success Rate	59.3%	61.9%
Close PPP	0.77	0.27
Close S&P	1.364	0.885
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	66.7%	45.1%
PPP	0.76	0.12
S&P	1.430	0.567

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	28.6%	40.9%
PPP	0.24	0.35
S&P	0.528	0.755

TURNOVERS
Number	0	3
Turnover Pts	0.0	16.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+16.9	-16.9

Q1 S&P	0.957	0.493
Q2 S&P	1.197	0.573
Q3 S&P	1.756	0.742
Q4 S&P	1.190	0.598

1st Down S&P	1.639	0.574
2nd Down S&P	0.692	0.622
3rd Down S&P	0.757	0.506

Projected Pt. Margin	+34.3	-34.3
Actual Pt. Margin	+26	-26

Quick reactions...

Kansas State can thank special teams for keeping this game at a smaller margin (26 instead of the projected 34). With solid kick returns and only decent Mizzou punting, they ran well over half of their plays from Mizzou's side of the field, which put a lot of pressure on Missouri's defense not to break down, especially considering how KSU thrives on the "geology" style of offense (pressure + time). Eventually, Mizzou could have worn down, given in, and allowed a couple of killer touchdowns, but they did not. Meanwhile, barely over one-third of Mizzou's plays were run from KSU's side of the field, but thanks to Danario Alexander, that didn't really matter. With #81, Mizzou was more capable of scoring touchdowns from their own side of the field than KSU was in Mizzou territory, and that clearly made the difference in the game.
This game really was decided by explosiveness. Missouri had it, K-State didn't. Mizzou was content to allow a ridiculously high passing success rate to KSU in exchange for not giving up any big plays and making KSU drive the length of the field. How many times did KSU convert a 3rd-and-6 with exactly a 6-yard pass? Plenty. And how many touchdowns did KSU score? Zero. Watching Mizzou allow huge cushions on opposing wide receivers, especially on third down, is amazingly frustrating to watch. But in the last two weeks, we've seen why they do it. Without two long bombs, Baylor doesn't beat Missouri no matter how many short passes they complete. If Missouri can make you drive the length of the field without bombs or missed tackles, their run defense will make it very hard for you to convert those drives into touchdowns instead of field goals.
Missouri's 1.639 S&P on first downs really tells you all you need to know about how well David Yost and company did in their offensive game-planning last week. They nailed it. Mizzou was only decent on second and third downs, but first downs are the most likely "straight from the script" down, and Mizzou was wonderfully successful there. Meanwhile, they completely stuffed KSU's offensive gameplan as well, limiting them to a 0.574 S&P on first downs. Think about that--Mizzou was almost three times more successful on first down than KSU. That's how you win road games by 26.
That, and winning the turnover battle by 17 points certainly helps, huh?

"This Team Can't Score in the Second Half"

Football's the funniest sport to analyze because we are dealing with such laughably small sample sizes. Take any team from the NBA (or Major League Baseball). With a 12-game sample I could show you a squad that is great in the first half, or terrible in the second half, or terrible on the boards, or great shooting. Then, with a different 12-game sample, I should show you a team that is terrible in the first half, great in the second half, great on the boards, or terrible shooting. Figuring out what is true and what is within the margin of error is a crap shoot when the margin of error is gigantic.

What this means is, narratives form and disintegrate in less than a month's time. The first month of the season, Missouri had a slow-starting offense that was impeccable in the second half. A month later, they were outstanding in the first half and horribly inept in the second ("HALFTIME ADJUSTMENTS!!!!"). We all saw the graphic Versus threw up in the third quarter, showing how Missouri had not yet scored a touchdown in the second half of a conference game. And then they scored three touchdowns in the second half. And like that, the narrative died. At this point in the season, Mizzou has had three major letdowns in the second half (OSU, Colorado, Baylor...Nebraska and Texas don't count, as they were no worse in the second half as in the first half) and four games in which the second half offense was as good as (Illinois, Nevada, KSU) or better than (Bowling Green) the first half offense. Rest in peace, "No Halftime Adjustments" narrative.

(Major disclaimer: I half-mock the "halftime adjustments" meme, but I don't want to pretend that there wasn't something going on to send the team into a second-half funk. Gary Pinkel was worried enough about it that he brought in Lorenzo Williams to give a Thursday pep talk and let Sean Weatherspoon do all the talking at halftime in Manhattan. He knew something needed to be done, and he deserves to be commended for trying to address the issue. Did those pep talks have anything to do with the team's better performance? Possibly, possibly not. We obviously don't really know, but it certainly didn't hurt, huh?)

So now that we're done with five-sixths of the season, we can see the true narrative for this offense: 1) they've got a sophomore quarterback whose pocket presence is improving by the week, but still has plenty to learn, 2) they've got an All-American caliber receiver who can score from any point on the field at any time, and 3) they are LOADED with youth, and therefore maddeningly inconsistent. Blaine Gabbert? Sophomore. Derrick Washington, De'Vion Moore, and Kendial Lawrence? Junior, sophomore, true freshman. Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, and (yes) Andrew Jones? Sophomore, sophomore, sophomore. Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, and Dan Hoch? Sophomore, sophomore, sophomore. Heading into this season, Missouri's offense had about roughly 101 career starts (Kurtis Gregory 28, Jared Perry 20ish, Derrick Washington 14, Tim Barnes 14, Elvis Fisher 14, Danario Alexander 11, and I may be forgetting some here and there). Now? 211 career starts. They will lose Alexander, Gregory, and Perry ... and that's it. Yes, we're leaning heavily on Danario right now, and justifiably so, but it's amazing what experience can do. For no single reason, you just become more consistent (and your offensive coordinator becomes a lot smarter) over time with this little turnover.

What does this mean for the rest of the season? Who the hell knows? With three games now remaining, odds are in favor of at least one more stinker and at least one more explosion. Figuring out the games in which those will happen is impossible.

Three Positives

Danario Alexander. It's predictable, and you could have made this judgment without any statistical analysis whatsoever, but he just has to lead off this list, no? He has upped his game in the last couple of weeks, but his season-long output has just been insane. He will absolutely end up with the Mizzou single season yardage record, locking it down as soon as his first or second catch this coming Saturday, but he needs 22 catches to top Jeremy Maclin's single season record. At 7.3 per game, that's certainly within the realm of possibility, but he'll probably need one more big game to lock it down. And who's betting against him at this point?

You just have to hope and pray that the leadership-by-example that he is showing right now is rubbing off on guys like Wes Kemp, Jerrell Jackson, Rolandis Woodland, and T.J. Moe, as he will not be around to carry this offense next year.
Missouri defensive line. Lost amid Alexander's recent surge is the performance Dominique Hamilton has come up with recently. He and Jaron Baston have led what has just been a superb rushing defense over these past few weeks, and if you are ranking the North's best defensive linemen for next season, Hamilton is almost starting to make a case for the #3 slot behind Jared Crick and Aldon Smith. The future is extremely bright for the Missouri defensive line, with Hamilton and Jacquies Smith making plays as sophomores and Aldon Smith becoming an all-conference level performer as a redshirt freshman.
First Downs. I already referenced it above, but against a Bill Snyder-led coaching staff, Mizzou's staff put together virtually perfect offensive and defensive gameplans, and it shined through in the first down performance on both offense and defense. Mizzou's offensive is still only average at best on passing downs, but with such great success on first-and-10, they faced minimal awkward situations.

(And because we won, a fourth positive...)
Offensive Line. No sacks and a 3.94 line yardage average? Wow. KSU's defensive line isn't great, but that was still a dominant performance.

Three Negatives

Field Position. Iowa State doesn't have the return threats that Kansas State and Baylor had, and that will help, but Missouri has done itself no favors whatsoever in the field position battle this year. Mizzou is solid in a lot of special teams aspects, but kick coverage has not been one of them. Kick returns and ill-timed three-and-outs by the offense led to K-State's domination in this category last Saturday, and while the Mizzou defense responded time and again, you're just adding to the degree of difficulty by letting this happen, especially on the road. Thanks to Danario Alexander, Mizzou more than overcame their field position deficiencies, but even going back to the Oklahoma State game this has been a consistent issue.
Passing Downs (Offense). With experience should come improvement in this category, but it is certainly still a lingering issue on offense this year. We were very spoiled by Chase Daniel's proficiency on passing downs, and we should see the numbers improve as Blaine Gabbert gets more and more comfortable in the pocket and the coaching staff takes the reins off of the play-calling, but for now it is a well-defined weakness.
Passing Downs (Defense). KSU's 40.9% success rate on Passing Downs was very frustrating, but as I mentioned above, we know why they allowed that--the coverage cushions set up a series of easy conversions, and against KSU that was fine because they were not capable of running the ball and putting the ball in the endzone, but while it made strategic sense, it was annoying to watch.

Three Keys Revisited

Seen here.

MU Defensive Line vs KSU Offensive Line

KSU will continue to use Daniel Thomas to pound away at opponents until they absolutely have to pass. If Missouri holds Thomas to what they've been holding other opponents, Kansas State will really struggle to move the ball. As I said, Brandon Banks has been inconsistent in the passing game, and they don't have another go-to passing weapon. If the Wildcats can't run the ball, they will face a lot of passing downs; and if they face a lot of passing downs, guys like Aldon Smith are going to have another huge day, and Mizzou will likely win.

KSU indeed couldn't run, and while Aldon Smith didn't have a Colorado-esque game, Mizzou still won easily.

Standard Downs

Against the run or pass, KSU's defense has been below average in terms of defense on standard downs (i.e. first downs, 2nd-and-6 or less, 3rd-and-4 or less). As you would expect from a Bill Snyder team, they take advantage of mistakes, but if Missouri can generate consistent yardage on standard downs, run or pass, then they should be able to move the ball rather well. This goes for any game, but especially one that includes a Missouri offense that is talented and fast, but young and lacking confidence.

Mizzou had a 1.430 S&P on standard downs. 'Nuff said.

Brandon Banks

Quite simply, if KSU makes a big offensive play or scores an easy touchdown, the odds are good that Banks was behind it. Granted, he has only one receiving touchdown on the year (how does that happen??), but he is quick and fast, a lot like Baylor's Kendall Wright, only faster and smaller. If KSU is able to get him in the open field, then this offense becomes infinitely more dangerous. And, um, I think I've already covered how scared of him I am in the kicking game. Seriously, just kick it out of bounds.

It ended up being about a 50-50 proposition whether kicking it out of bounds would have been smarter than kicking it deep, and while it was a relief that he never broke a big return (at least, not without an illegal block bringing it back), he was still KSU's best threat for winning this game, and his presence still resulted in a massive field position advantage for the WIldcats. Again, fortunately for Mizzou, Iowa State has nobody this dangerous.

Summary

Winner, winner. Not much else to say at this point. This has been a bit of a frustrating season, simply because of the youth on the display and the inconsistency that comes with that, but Saturday's win was quite satsifying, not only because it was on the road or because it was against Bill Snyder, but because it signified that this team's long-term trajectory has not been damaged by the loss to Baylor or the overall poor performance against the Big 12 South. Missouri still looks beyond dangerous in 2010 and 2011, and "Don't screw up future seasons" really was one of the main goals for 2009.

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Q&A with the Missouri Tigers Blog, Rock M Nation

irish1611 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:34:41 -0000

It is always good to sit down and discuss football with the great Missouri blog, Rock M Nation. Unfortunately for Buff fans, it has not been as fun to play Missouri the past two years. We discuss everything from Blaine Gabbert's status, the mood back in Columbia and the dissapointments in the early season among other things.

The big question on everyone's mind is around the health of Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert. What is his status for Saturday and what is your opinion of his performance so far this year?

He'd been in a walking boot after the previous few games, but he was in an actual cast after the Texas game. That didn't exactly last long though, as the cast was gone Tuesday and Gabbert was back in the mix of things at practice. As for his performance this year, I apologize for the length, but allow me to copy exactly what I said to Burnt Orange Nation last week:

Gabbert's been a tale of two quarterbacks. In his first start at the college level, Gabbert was in complete control. He absolutely assaulted Illinois (25-of-33, 319 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) at a neutral site, although that victory must be accompanied by a disclaimer that explains how painfully putrid the Fightin' Zookers are this year. As insignificant as that win now seems, it did one important thing: It established that if teams were going to play the run and gamble on Gabbert to beat them in the air, he was more than capable of doing it.

The opposite was true the following week, when Bowling Green sold out in a Cover 4 to make the Missouri running game beat them. It eventually did, but not without a lot of hand wringing into the fourth quarter. During the rest of non-conference, Gabbert put up big numbers in limited time against Furman and lit up Nevada to the tune of 414 yards in his first true road game. This also happened to be the last time we saw him healthy. He was hurt early in the loss to Nebraska and hasn't been the same since.

His strength is clearly the howitzer that resides on his right arm. Missouri offensive coordinator David Yost said that in all the years he's been in the business, only Ryan Mallett has a stronger arm than Gabbert. And from what we've seen of him when healthy, he's not kidding. The kid will roll left, throw off balance against his body, flick the wrist, and watch the ball sail 70 yards. Overlooked, though, is his speed and mobility when he's healthy. Before the ankle injury, he showed deftness in the open field that combined with long strides to create one of Missouri's secret weapons when he decided to keep on the zone read. On top of that, he's been pretty aware in the pocket, as evidenced by the Nevada win in which he was avoiding rushers all night just to have the chance to put up ANY numbers, much less the 414 yards and three touchdowns that he did.

The weakness is still in the mental part of his game. Don't get me wrong, he seems like a bright guy and a student of the game, but he has a tendency to stare down his receivers. Usually, the strength of his arm allows him to get away with it, but one-legged Gabbert can't quite do that, especially against Big 12 competition. His second interception against Nebraska, during which he stared down a deep out, was particularly damaging.

What is the mood like in Columbia? You knew there would be some struggles losing a lot of productive players from a year ago but are people still believing the Big 12 North is up for grabs or have they scaled back their expectations?

It's odd because expectations really have been scaled back without any change in the potential payoff, if that makes sense. The sheer lunacy of the Big 12 North this year means that Missouri's 0-3 start isn't all that damaging to Missouri's aim at the North, especially with OSU and Texas now behind MU on the schedule.

Expectations shot through the roof after the win against Illinois, and those expectations are slowly crashing back to Earth after watching Mizzou struggle and Illinois quickly become the worst BCS conference team in the country.

But for all of Missouri's struggles, that Big 12 North crown is WIDE open if Missouri wins out. But that's a big "if," given Missouri's recent string of play. We'll know a lot more about Missouri's chances after Saturday.

What has been the biggest disappointment this season so far and what has been the biggest surprise?

The disappearance of the running game in the early season was far and away the biggest disappointment, especially because it really highlighted weaknesses in an offensive line that was supposed to be one of the North's best. Missouri returned three starters -- Elvis Fisher, Tim Barnes, and Kurtis Gregory -- and inserted a tackle -- Dan Hoch -- who was good enough last year to become the first true freshman offensive lineman ever to play under Gary Pinkel at Missouri. The running game is starting to come around a little bit, but the line's early struggles threw the Missouri fan base into an early minor panic.

I'm really not sure where to go with the biggest surprise. As much as people are looking at the last three games and crucifying the defense, it hasn't looked all that bad. There's a bit to be desired in the pass rush and the secondary had some high-profile breakdowns against Texas, but the unit has performed fairly admirably. Before the Texas debacle, the unit had avoided all of the breakdowns in communication that resulted in long play after long play for teams against MU in 2008.

Usually when we talk about Missouri it centers around the offense. Who are the playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and what do they need to do to get back on track after the past three opponents have put up 34 points a game on average?

The big name obviously is Sean Weatherspoon, but the backers at his side have been very, very solid in 2009. Luke Lambert has started at middle linebacker, but he's fought injuries all year long, which is unfortunate for him because Will Ebner has taken over and shows NO signs of ever giving the job back. Ebner is fantastic in pursuit, filling his gaps well and reading/blowing up screens perfectly on a consistent basis. He may be the hardest hitting linebacker in the Big 12 North, and a case could be made for him in that regard for the entire conference. The other backer is Andrew Gachkar, who has been particularly great on the blitz. He's been asked to be in coverage a lot, and was hung out to dry last week when he was asked to cover Jordan Shipley out of the slot pretty much all by himself.

The other name I need to bring up is Aldon Smith, who has separated himself from what people were calling a three-headed monster of him, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter. His sack numbers aren't through the roof, but he's been the end that's gotten the most consistent pressure. More than anything, he always seems to get his hands in passing lanes if he can't get all the way upfield.

Where does Missouri have the advantage this weekend over the Buffs?

I can only hope Missouri will be more battle-tested after two weeks against Oklahoma State and Texas. Other than that, I don't know that I can say where the advantages are, simply because I have no idea which Colorado OR Missouri team will show up. Both teams have played on such far ends of the spectrum this year.
Colorado wins if Blaine Gabbert isn't accurate and the Colorado offense is as opportunistic off of turnovers as it was against Kansas.

Missouri wins if the Tigers protect the football and avoid the defensive meltdown that cost them against Texas.

In the Trenches - Anatomy of a Muschamp Adjustment

burnt in ny — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:59:28 -0000

So there were the Horns, having a 21-0 lead on the road, with the ball and all the momentum. Three plays later, Texas comes up a yard short and has to punt. Missouri then takes the ball down the field with a series of running plays, eventually scoring a touchdown when Missouri's offensive formation resulted in Chykie Brown having 1 on 1 coverage of Jared Perry. An excellent throw by Gabbert yielded 6 for the Tigers. OK, it's 21-7, and the offense had looked weak again on the previous series. In days gone by, the track meet would be on, with the opposing offense marching up and down the field and the Texas offense would have had to keep pace. Think Texas Tech 2007. But not in 2009. Not with Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator. First the offense did their part, overcoming a dropped pass by Malcolm Williams with a brilliantly executed screen to Fozzy Whittaker and then once again using Marquise Goodwin as a decoy to free Shipley for a TD pass. Then it was back to the defense, and, as we fans have become almost spoiled to experience this season, came the MUSCHAMP ADJUSTMENT.

Exactly as I planned, men, exactly as I planned!

As the offense, and ergo the offensive line, finally found itself in the first half, I decided to focus the majority of this week's column on the defense. And the epitome of the defensive effort in this game was a subtle but critical change in defensive strategy that largely shut down the MU running game. As an example of many such adjustments Muschamp has made over the past 19 games for Texas, I'll analyze it in detail along with a few comments about the offense after the jump.

In one drive, Missouri outrushes Texas' four previous opponents combined.

So what happened? Missouri got an extra "tight end" on the field in the form of starting left tackle Elvis Fisher (72). Fisher was replaced by backup center J.T. Beasley (67). This effectively put six offensive linemen on the field with three wide receivers still to spread the field. They lined up Denario Alexander in the slot to the opposite side of the two tackles, whilch pulled Earl Thomas to that side of the field. At the same time, Texas lined up Kheeston Randall and Lamarr Alexander in gaps 1 (between the center and guard) or 2 (over the guard) (see purple circles in diagram below). During the drive, Missouri shifted their strong side with Elvis Fisher as tight end. The coupling of these formations left Texas in an unbalanced defense with their arguably four best defensive players (circled in yellow) on one side of the field and allowed Missouri to exploit mismatches on the opposite (strong side)

On the drive, Missouri mostly ran away from Kindle and pulled either guard Kurtis Gregory (78) or tackles Dan Hoch or J.T. Beasley to provide extra blockers at the point of attack. No play epitomized Missouri's success, and the source of it, more than Derrick Washington's 13 yard run for a first down to the Texas 14 yard-line with about 8 minutes left in the first half. The formation allowed MU to double team Sam Acho (81), put a tackle on Rodderick Muckelroy (38), let center Tim Barnes (62) push Kheeston Randall out of the play and pull J.T. Beasley (67) to block Keenan Robinson (1). Sergio Kindle is never blocked on the play.

Note how the play looks defended because of Randall's penetration and Robinson flying in to fill the gap behind him. Instead (see below), because of the mismatches on Acho and Muckelroy, Washington cuts inside Randall into a huge hole created by Dan Hoch (77) doing a niceuncalled infant grip on Sam Acho (purple circle) and Kurtis Gregory getting off the initial block on Acho to double team Robinson. Blake Gideon, for some reason is late getting over and has to take a deep angle on Washington to avoid giving up a TD.

So the next series, Muschamp ADJUSTS by essentially shifting to a 3-4 alignment, with Randall at the nose (0 technique) and Kindle as an extra linebacker. Houston is now the strongside defensive end playing over the 4 or 5 gaps, with no one outside him. Perhaps anticipating Muschamp's adjustment, Pinkel changes to a 20 personnel, with an extra back, Matt Davis (35) in the backfield, and two WR to either side. The only (apparent) advantage MU has in this formation is the ability to double team Randall in the middle.

Note the more balanced distribution of Texas best players (although part of this is the placement of Denario Alexander in the slot opposte the tight end, which puts Earl Thomas behind Kindle).

The example play from this ultimately ill-fated drive is on second down, a sweep with MU's speed back De'Vion Moore (26). The idea is for Alexander to crack back on Kindle and for Davis (35) to block upfield on Earl Thomas, and for Dan Hoch (77) to seal Lamarr Houston. As you might suspect, all these matchups favor Texas, especially now that Kindle is not playing DE and can turn to face Alexander's block rather than being hit from the side.

The result? Houston blows by Hoch like Hurricane Katrina, Randall ties up three (!) MU blockers in the middle (purple circle). Kindle abuses Alexander, and Thomas just runs by Matt Davis for a joint collision and a loss of a yard. All three plays on the drive were disrupted by Houston, who could no longer be double-teamed. On every play, Randall stood up Missouri's double teams, freeing Acho and Houston and Robinson to fill gaps or harass Gabbert. In retrospect, one wonders what Pinkel was thinking in his playcalling and why he got away from the 3-tackle offensive line formation that produced the success on the previous drive. Perhaps, because of the poor field position and only 1:45 left in the half, he thought he needed a more pass-friendly formation but regardless, Muschamp's adjustments shifted the advantage from Missouri to Texas, with immediate results.

Missouri is pinned inside their 10, decides to rugby kick, and Curtis Brown blocks the punt, Malcolm Williams recovers, and it's Texas 35-7. Game. Set. Match.

The Screen Game

Now that Fozzy Whittaker is the #1 RB and is playing well on all 3 downs, including pass blocking, Texas has added the screen to their arsenal in a big way. This puts new expectations for the offensive line, and over the past three games, we've learned a bit about how successful these screens are likely to be. Against Missouri, the Horns ran two screens. One went for 17 yards, following excellent downfield blocks by Michael Huey and Chris Hall, and a solid block against a defender chasing from the rear by Charlie Tanner. The other screen went for one yard even though it was equally well set up and timed because Charlie "Tunnel Vision" Tanner didn't see the nearest and most threatening defender, who sliced in behind the blocking to stop Whittaker. Against Oklahoma, the screen was moderately successful (7 yards), but again, defenders sliced in behind Tanner to make the tackle. Texas also ran a screen against Colorado out of the flex TE formation, but Dan Buckner's missed block caused the play to be stopped for a minimal gain.

Prognosis: The screen pass to Whittaker could become an excellent component of the newly diversified Texas offense, but perhaps it needs to be run to the right behind Michael Huey instead of to the left behind Tanner.

Offensive Line Report

After six games, the "sick child" of the 2009 Longhorns is officially the offensive line. It is the leading cause of sleepless nights for fans and lost thumbnails for Colt McCoy. Against Missouri, they earned these grades.

Adam Ulatoski A- An absolute rock in the run game, number 74 is still showing vulnerability to bull rushes followed by quick inside moves from defensive ends in the passing game.

Charlie Tanner B+ Tanner seems to have gotten over the hurdle of picking up blitzes but still struggles at times with picking out the right defender to block on downfield runs and screens (see above).

Chris Hall B- Struggled with his snapping all night - Colt made him look good with a couple of athletic grabs, but one bad snap led to a sack. Chris still struggles with the cut blocking needed for effective double teams in the Horns' zone blocking schemes. Nevertheless, his blocking calls are usually on and the whole line plays better when Hall, as opposed to David Snow, is in at center.

Michael Huey A- Slowed by a high ankle sprain since the ULM game, Huey was replaced by David Snow after a miserable Colorado game, but came back in to start and play well in the second half against Oklahoma. Huey blocked magnificently on several running plays and was solid in pass protection except for one play where Terrell Rosonno (I believe it was) blew him 5 yards backward. Huey should become stronger as his ankle continues to heal.

Kyle Hix C Texas' largest lineman seems to get physically dominated early in every game, and it's not clear why. Perhaps being matched up against future NFLers Gerald McCoy and Jeremy Beal of OU is too much for Hix, but redshirt freshman Aldon Smith of Missouri? His early failures can make Colt have a short clock in his head before he feels like he has to throw, which can lead to an inefficient passing offense and an over-reliance on short looks to Jordan Shipley. The domino effect of Hix being dominated early in the game may even affect the playcalling, although Greg Davis' eclectic portfolio prevents any real analysis. But early game failures, which fortunately had no impact on the outcome in this game, start sending the message about what you can't do rather than what you can.

Greg Smith Saga

The player who easily leads the team in fan groans over the past two seasons is Greg Smith, an offensive lineman converted from a high school TE to a guard and then back to a TE. Known misaffectionately on the site as the "Extra Blocking Surface" or EBS, Smith is now the favorite son of Greg Davis, who lauded what having Smith enabled the Horns to do once again on his "From the Film Room" report (now up on page 2 videos on the main page of MB-TF). Greg had a typical game against Missouri: decent but somewhat inconsistent run-blocking, and a presence that allowed Texas to block well on zone read and counter plays in the first series. He also caught the only ball thrown to him, and seems to have improved speed in escaping the desultory linebacker usually assigned to him. In some big game in the future, Smith will make a couple of key first down catches.

On the other hand, Smith is still a liability in pass protection. Against the Tigers, he was manhandled by Aldon Smith, on one play that led to one of Colt's two sacks on the day. In some big game in the future, Smith will get overwhelmed again leading to pressure or a sack on McCoy and a turnover.

That's a risk the Horns are just going to have to take, because Smith's presence on the field shifts the blocking schemes to allow the offensive line to have two initial double teams up front, a greater likelihood of the backdoor cut for Whittaker, and greater opportunities in the zone read. It is clear that the Horns want to be able to run the ball up to 5-6 plays in a row, and that's just not possible without a true TE on the field.

The Man in the Middle

Kheestion Randall and Ben Alexander have been incredibly pleasant surprises this year at defensive tackle (see the section above on the benefits of putting Kheeston Randall at the nose. Kheeston has emerged as the clear starter over Alexander in the last two weeks, largely because he has become the first DT since perhaps Frank Okam who is big and strong enough to take on two gaps. That is he lines up in the nose or directly in front of the center and stands him up, and then shifts to the right or left if a running back tries to come through either hole. Randall has shown outstanding quickness on slants, and has gotten close enough to the opposing QB enough times to draw 3 personal foul roughing the QB penalties. Randall is just a sophomore, and if he keeps developing, he could remove worry about the center of the Texas defence and free playmakers like Eddie Jones, Alex Okafor, and Reggie Wilson for the next two years.

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Anatomy of "No Gain" -- Missouri's running game against Nebraska

RPT — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:14:45 -0000

People asking what's wrong with the Missouri running game right now are a dime a dozen. People with answers to that question are far more rare. The analysis that follows is in no way a complete diagnosis of what ails the Missouri rushing attack. Instead, it takes a look at one isolated play in which what looks like a potential big gain is quickly rendered into no gain.

Missouri comes out in a 3x1 Trips Left formation with the back (Derrick Washington) to the weakside. The play call appears to be a counter play to Washington, who approaches as if it is a sweep to the left before quickly planting and moving right. Highlighted here is Ndamukong Suh, who appears to be in a two-technique over the right guard (Kurtis Gregory).

Before we go any further, let's address the playcall (or more importantly for Missouri fans, the play direction). Not since Lewis and Clark came through in the early 1800s have people in Missouri been so worked up about North/South vs. East/West. While the shotgun counter (explained in depth in the middle of the page at this link) is nowhere near the North/South equivalent of say, a halfback lead from an I-formation jumbo set, it is far more North/South than most people are giving it credit for. Just because Washington begins the play moving laterally doesn't mean the play isn't designed to go vertically. The point here is for the pull block and Washington's misdirection to create a lane on the playside. Yes, when executed correctly, it is very much a North/South run.

There's a little bit of trouble from the start, as the snap is low to Blaine Gabbert, who has to bend down to snag it, putting a small hitch in the timing. The other immediate observation to be made is what happens at the defensive tackle spot opposite Suh. Highlighted here is DT Jared Crick, who will shoot the gap thanks to the pulling action of left guard Austin Wuebbels. Here, you can already see Wuebbels preparing to pull into the B-gap on the right side. That leaves left tackle Elvis Fisher alone to chip Crick and then return to his assignment on the defensive end. Center Tim Barnes has to scramble back to push Crick out of the play from behind.

Here we see Crick way upfield with Barnes trailing behind. With this being a counter play, Crick's presence isn't incredibly disruptive, as the run is designed to suck defenders to Missouri's left and then hope the overpursuit opens up the right side. The dearth of defenders in the box and Missouri's numbers advantage make it appear like Washington will have lanes both inside and outside once he reaches the line of scrimmage.

It looks like Gregory has tied up Suh, right tackle Dan Hoch has tied up Pierre Allen, and Wuebbels is out in front to lead for Washington. The second level looks relatively barren, and things are looking promising. Right?

Wrong. Suh fights off an overpowered Gregory, who gets caught leaning a little bit. Just like that, a promising opening for Washington results in minimal gain.

Here we see it from SkyCam. Crick is shaded in a three-technique over Wuebbels, who will be pulling right. The responsibility then gets put on Fisher to chip Crick, buying Barnes time to pick him up. This is all fine and dandy, except for the fact that it leaves Gregory one-on-one with the best defensive tackle in the country.

Wuebbels begins the pull, Fisher gets his chip and Gregory appears to have turned Suh in the proper direction. If your linemen have their butts facing the hole, odds are that they're doing their job. Here we see the linebacker (presumably Will Compton??), stepping up to fill in the gap.

Wuebbels engages the backer effectively, and the hole appears to open for Washington. Looking downfield, it looks like that if Washington can get past the line of scrimmage, he should ideally only have to deal with the safety in the top right corner of the frame en route to a substantial gain. The only problem? Highlighted on the left side is the Suh/Gregory battle, where Suh reads the play and begins to get a beat on Gregory with that right-arm swim move.

Suh latches onto Washington as Gregory dives to try to get a hand on Suh, but it's too little, too late. Washington doesn't even get the chance to make safety Larry Asante miss at the second level, and Missouri is again stuck in second and long with a hobbled quarterback in the midst of a monsoon.

The Takeaway: Screw the "Power of Red," you can rename this play the "Power of Suh." In the play's early development, Nebraska's pass-heavy defensive look and the movement of Missouri's offensive line makes it look like an easy gain. But on this single play, one lost battle in a one-on-one matchup was the difference between 5+ yards and zero yards. These were the kinds of battles that Missouri won consistently in 2007 in run-powered wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas. The players are saying that the failure of the running game is all about "the little things," and on this play, they're absolutely correct.

Mizzou Links, 10-5-09

Bill C. — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:08:09 -0000

After a relatively disengaged (for me) weekend, it's time to get primed for Thursday night, baby. And it starts with your typical Monday boatload of links.

Mizzou-Nebraska Links!

KC Star: For now, Missouri's football program outshines Nebraska

Over the previous five seasons, Missouri has won six more games than Nebraska, three in Big 12 play. The Tigers have played in four straight bowl games, one more than the Cornhuskers in that span.

Missouri’s six NFL draft selections last April match the total of Nebraska players taken over the previous two years.

Conquests of ranked opponents, all-conference and All-America selections, postseason appearances and bowl trophies all favor Tigers of recent vintage.

But the most telling baton-passing moments have occurred on game days. Mizzou has toyed with the Huskers with a combined 93-23 score in two straight triumphs. Thursday, the Tigers go for their first three-game series winning streak since 1969.

It was around the time man first walked on the moon that Mizzou held its own with Nebraska in reputation and perception.
KC Star: MU-Nebraska matchup loaded with intrigue
KC Star: Nebraska returns tickets (?????????) as MU nears sellout
KC Star (Campus Corner): Exploring the Rankings for Mizzou and Nebraska; and updated depth chart
MUtigers.com: OFFICIAL RELEASE!!

Mizzou has won 4 of its last 6 games over Nebraska, with all 4 wins coming by no fewer than 17 points. Mizzou has won 3 straight in Columbia (41-24 in both 2003 and 2005, plus a 41-6 win in 2007), and that was capped last season with an historic 52-17 win in Lincoln, which marked Mizzou's first win in Nebraska since 1978. Missouri is looking to beat Nebraska for a third straight season - the last time that happened was during a stretch from 1967-69.

Mizzou's 3 straight wins in Columbia over Nebraska is the longest such streak since the Tigers won 4 straight in Columbia over the Huskers from 1947-53. Tiger Coach Gary Pinkel stands 4-4 against Nebraska in his 8 years on the Mizzou sideline. The last Tiger coach to have more wins against Nebraska than Pinkel was the College Football Hall of Famer, Dan Devine, who went 8-5 against the Huskers from 1958-70.
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou now looms as challenge for Huskers
Omaha World-Herald: With a roar, Tigers look to restore order, too
Omaha World-Herald: Getting to know Missouri: Gabbert, Tigers hard to tame
Lincoln Journal Star: Sean Weatherspoon in the middle of things
Nebraska State Paper: Beat Em and Join Em
Nebraska State Paper: Pinkel "Very Impressed" with Huskers
PowerMizzou: Where could the Huskers hurt Missouri?

Gabbert Links!

Post-Dispatch: Gabberts are living in middle of rivalry
Post-Dispatch: MU notebook: Blaine Gabbert's streak impresses Pinkel, even if it can't last
The Missourian: Pinkel expresses pleasure with Gabbert's poise
Omaha World-Herald: Tigers court a second Gabbert

And speaking of recruiting, here's a fun Twitter post from PowerMizzou's Gabe Dearmond:

Just got confirmation from Sheldon Richardson that he will visit for #Mizzou game against Nebraska on Thursday

Media Day Links!

Dave Matter: Tigers meet the press
On the depth chart, tight end Andrew Jones is back at No. 1, ahead of Beau Brinkley. ... An OR is listed between Jarrell Harrison and Kenji Jackson at strong safety and between Jasper SImmons and Hardy Ricks at free safety, though Harrison and Simmons were working with the No. 1 defense during practice walk-throughs. ... Brian Coulter is back listed as a starter at one defensive end spot, while there's an OR between Aldon Smith and Jacquies Smith at the other.
MUtigers.com: Press Conference Quotes
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Pinkel meets the media
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Pinkel on the Huskers
PowerMizzou: PMTV: Talking Nebraska

Missouri/Nevada: Anatomy of a Dagger

RPT — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 16:17:06 -0000

Missouri's offense is reaping praise for its 97-yard fourth quarter drive that put Nevada away on Friday. What exactly happened on that drive following Brian Coulter's forced fumble at the MU 3? Let's take a closer look:

Situation: 1st and 10 at MIZZ 3
Personnel/Formation: "12" personnel (1 back, 2 tight ends), Ace formation, Gabbert under center
Result: Derrick Washington rush for 2 yards to the MIZZ 5.

What happened: ZOMG MISSOURI WENT UNDER CENTER. Missouri tries to get out of the shadow of its own endzone, running the little used Ace formation with two in-line tight ends, including a very rare Jon Gissinger sighting. The handoff goes off-tackle to the left, where the left side of the line gets a pretty good push, only to have Washington stopped by the left side of the Nevada D-Line crashing down to the right.

Situation: 2nd and 8 at MIZZ 5
Personnel/Formation: "11" personnel with standing TE, Gun Trips Left (3x1 receivers) before Jones motions right
Result: Derrick Washington rush for no gain to the MIZZ 5.

What happened: Because the left side of the Missouri line gets blown off the line of scrimmage, it's hard to tell if this play was a middle draw, an off-tackle to the left, or a delay counter to the right. Austin Wuebbels manages to block his man, although he gets blown backward in the process, clogging the lane and forcing Washington to try to bounce right to no avail.

Situation: 3rd and 8 at MIZZ 5
Personnel/Formation: Two-back Gun set, Lawrence/Washington split on each side of Gabbert, 2x1 receivers
Result: Blaine Gabbert pass complete to Danario Alexander for 8 yards to the MIZZ 13 for a 1ST down.

What happened: Nevada shows blitz but rushes only four, with two would-be blitzers immediately bailing from the line of scrimmage. The receivers are getting extremely cushy coverages out wide, and all three receivers get a free release. Lawrence flares out right and Washington hooks up the middle, both as safety valve outlets that Gabbert never even considers. Gabbert sees what appears to be a Nevada zone aimed at taking away the middle of the field deep, and our man "Dontario" Alexander breaks out to the sideline where there's a major soft spot in coverage. Alexander was in the slot, and the unidentified MU receiver split out to his left was able to stretch the field vertically and open up that sideline for Danario.

Situation: 1st and 10 at MIZZ 13
Personnel/Formation: Gun Trips Right (1x3, stand up TE in slot), Washington left of Gabbert
Result: Blaine Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Jones.

What happened: Missouri runs one of the staples of its offense, the playaction pass with a pulling guard. Gabbert shows run to Washington, as Wuebbels pulls right to attack the end left unblocked by Dan Hoch, who's crashed left to sell the fake. The inside slot receiver shows bubble screen, which at first appears to suck down the defenders and open up the short hitch route to Jones. The pocket sets for Gabbert, but the defense doesn't crash down on the bubble as hard as expected. Gabbert throws a laser behind a pretty well-covered Jones and lives to fight another down.

Situation: 2nd and 10 at MIZZ 13
Personnel/Formation: Two back Gun set, Washington and Lawrence split, two receivers (2x1) strong right
Result: Kendial Lawrence rush for 3 yards to the MIZZ 16.

What happened: Missouri runs Lawrence off tackle on what could have been considered a lead play if Washington had elected to get out and block. Nevada brings a linebacker blitz from the strong side, but the play runs away from the blitzer and leaves him as a non-factor. Both Nevada linebackers read the play perfectly and contain the run on the near side.

Situation: 3rd and 7 at MIZZ 16
Personnel/Formation: Gun Trips Right, 1x3 receivers with Washington to left of Gabbert
Result: Blaine Gabbert pass complete to Wes Kemp for 18 yards to the MIZZ 34 for a 1ST down.

What happened: Again, Nevada brings four, and settles into the Half Quarters in coverage. Hoch and Fisher are able to push their rushers outside, but the left defensive tackle gets a strong push up the middle on the bull rush. Barnes is able to recover to push the rusher past Gabbert, allowing him to step up and deliver a bit of an arching throw from the hash marks to the opposite sideline, where Wes Kemp has all kinds of space. The corner continues retreating to take away his quarter of the field deep, only to have Kemp settle underneath. Two third downs. Two conversions for Gabbert.

Situation: 1st and 10 at MIZZ 34
Personnel/Formation: Show empty set (3x2, Lawrence in slot), Lawrence motions into backfield
Result: Kendial Lawrence rush for 1 yard to the MIZZ 35.

What happened: Missouri runs the play that was one of its biggest successes against Bowling Green. In 2009, David Yost has loved splitting his backs out wide and giving the ball to them on what appears to be jet sweeps. Instead of motioning the backs into the backfield and having them come set, Yost is having the backs take the ball on the move, and instead of racing to the outside like most receivers, he's having the backs cut upfield almost immediately. The zone blocking scheme moves left as Lawrence takes the handoff. All seven men in the box for Nevada follow the play, and Lawrence is tripped up for negligible gain.

Situation: 2nd and 9 at MIZZ 35
Personnel/Formation: Can't exactly tell -- ESPN montage cuts off start of play.
Result: Blaine Gabbert pass complete to Jared Perry for 17 yards to the NEV 48 for a 1ST down.

What happened: Can we PLEASE start calling Jared Perry by the name "Sir Screen Pass" in the future? For all the grief the O-Line has earned so far this season, they get major props on this play. Gabbert takes the snap and immediately looks right for Perry on the inside screen, who is initially boosted by a solid block from Kurtis Gregory at the line of scrimmage. Perry takes another couple of steps downfield and has a wall of Tim Barnes and Jayson Palmgren to his left. Danario ties his man up long enough to push Perry passed the first down marker, and Perry's momentum carries him forward into Nevada territory. Solid downfield blocking for Mizzou by both the line and the receivers has been a staple of success for the Tigers over the past few seasons, and it comes up huge on this play.

Situation: 1st and 10 at NEV 48
Personnel/Formation: Gun right, 2x2 receivers (standing TE Jones in slot), Washington right of Gabbert
Result: Derrick Washington rush for 42 yards to the NEV 6 for a 1ST down.

What happened: This one is going to kill Nevada in the film room this week. Gabbert takes the snap and immediately hands off to Washington on the sweep to the left. The play is IMMEDIATELY busted up by the backside defensive end and a hard-crashing linebacker, only to have the 'backer shake loose at Washington's feet and have the end slide off of Washington's waist. Those two diagnosed the play PERFECTLY, but just couldn't finish the play. Those two are now stuck upfield, and the offensive line and Danario Alexander have come down to effectively seal off the remaining five Nevada defenders in the box, opening up the left side for Washington. A HORRID pursuit angle by the Nevada safety allows D-Wash to get outside with absolutely zero moves required. Washington scampers down the field and could have waltzed in if Perry could have tied up his man. This play is seriously going to be a kick in the junk for the Nevada coaching staff.

Situation: 1st and Goal at NEV 6
Personnel/Formation: Two-back Gun set, 1x2 receivers strong to the right
Result: Derrick Washington rush for 2 yards to the NEV 4.

What happened: Gabbert takes the quick snap and gives to Washington moving right to left. Nevada has eight men in the box and simply outnumbers Missouri at the point of attack. All things considered, not a bad run by Washington to lower the boom and pick up two hard-earned redzone yards.

Situation: 2nd and Goal at NEV 4
Personnel/Formation: Gun left, Washington left of Gabbert, 2x2 receivers, with receivers at left stacked close together
Result: Blaine Gabbert pass complete to Jared Perry for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

What happened: Danario Alexander immediately fired off the ball and blows back the Nevada corner. The ball is out of Gabbert's hand quickly enough that Fisher, Barnes, Wuebbels and Gregory really don't get out in time to provide any sort of screen for Perry, but Perry hits the seam in between two defenders quick enough that it doesn't particularly matter. Missouri's celebration is subdued as Mizzou appears to have been flagged for offensive pass interference, but the throw stays behind the line of scrimmage and the points stay on the board. Gilmore and Tessitore determine that Mizzou got away with one, and I'm in no position to argue, although I'm not exactly complaining.

The margin of defeat or the margin of victory can be just that small. A couple of CLUTCH third down conversions by Gabbert as well as poor tackling and pursuit by Nevada on the Washington run puts the game squarely in Missouri's control.