SB Nation - Ryan Madison

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Bill C. — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:00:31 -0000

For some losses, like last week's Nebraska loss, I don't really feel like talking or thinking about it too much. For others, like this one, I can't really shut up. So to put my verbosity to good use, we're going to walk through each unit for Missouri, and I'm going to give you two ratings: 1) my short-term panic level (on a 1-to-10 scale), and 2) my long-term panic level (same scale).

Quarterback

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 0

People are questioning the use of Blaine Gabbert in this game, both whether he should have played at all and, more realistically, whether he should have been playing at the end. I say of course he should have been playing--an ankle sprain is not an injury with long-term danger, and even though he was spraying every pass a bit high, let's face it: we don't really have another good quarterback. Maybe Jimmy Costello is better than I'm giving him credit for, but he's probably not better than a one-legged Gabbert, and we knew from the beginning of this season that we were going to live and die with Gabbert this season. Right now, we're not necessarily dying by any means, but we're not living well because he's not living well.

Of course, the only problem with keeping him in the game, especially late, was that his instincts are very clear when behind center. He ran a couple of times on the last series of the game, even though that was the worst possible thing he could do. When he has the ball in his hands, he's not thinking "I should be careful." He's trying to move the ball, even when that might do him further damage.

Anyway, short-term, quarterbacking is definitely a bit of a concern. A sprained ankle needs rest and treatment to heal, and Missouri doesn't have a week off for quite a while. This is going to limit him for the foreseeable future, but he's still going to make some throws that nobody else in the conference can make, and after next week against Texas, he should be able to make quite a few plays even if not 100% healthy.

And long-term, duh. No worries here whatsoever. Gabbert still needs to develop better presence in the pocket--when to tuck and run, when to leave the pocket and roll left or right, et cetera. But that will come with playing time, plain and simple.

Running Back

Short-term panic level: 4 | Long-term panic level: 1

Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore both took what was given to them yesterday, and in a few instances even took a little more. I was a bit curious whether Moore was actually any better than Kendial Lawrence and whether he would lose his backup role at some point, but in a handful of carries the last couple of weeks, he has looked damn strong and damn quick. Meanwhile, D-Wash looked like D-Wash, never letting the first guy bring him down, falling forward, stepping through tackles, etc. If this performance is what we see the rest of the year, then things will be just fine. And Washington, Moore, and Lawrence all obviously return in 2010, along with Gilbert Moye an a couple more capable commits in Henry Josey and Greg White. For the foreseeable future, this unit will have both depth and diversity.

Wide Receiver

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 4

It's almost funny how things have unfolded in the last two months. Back in August, we were worried that a) this unit didn't have a go-to guy, b) this unit didn't have a big play threat, and c) Danario Alexander's hands would prevent him from being the solution for (a) and (b). Instead, Danario is absolutely the go-to guy, and one of the best in the conference. Plus, Danario and (to a slightly lesser degree) Jared Perry and Wes Kemp are capable of both catching the deep ball and (in Perry's and Danario's case) taking short passes a long way. The potential big play is one of Missouri's best weapons. But the hands of everybody not named Danario have been a serious issue. We've already said this about six times, but two drops more or less made the difference in the game last night. If Jerrell Jackson keeps his eye on a slant and doesn't let it bounce right off of his hands, it's a 10-yard gain for Missouri instead of a pick six for Oklahoma State. If Wes Kemp, uhh, closes his hands at the right time on a gorgeous bomb from Blaine Gabbert, Missouri not only uncorks a 60-yard (at least) gain late in the first half, but even if they don't score, they don't give the ball back to OSU in time for the Cowboys to drive down and score with seconds left in the half. Those two drops resulted in at least a 14-point swing for OSU, and that's if Missouri doesn't score after Kemp's drop.

This isn't a new phenomenon, though last night was the first time it truly cost Missouri. When you've got a quarterback like Gabbert, who is capable of firing 100-mph fastballs on just about any route, at the college level you are going to have some drops. Hell, at the pro level you're going to have some drops--not just anybody could catch John Elway's passes, right? But we are halfway through the season, and the guys on the field need to be getting better at catching the fastballs, and they are really not. This is at least a bit of a long-term concern simply because the 2010 Missouri team won't feature either Danario or Perry. Guys like Kemp and Jackson (and T.J. Moe, and Brandon Gerau, and Rolandis Woodland, and L'Damian Washington) are going to have to step up, both as every-down threats and simply guys with reliable hands. All of the guys I listed above are freshmen or sophomores right now, and they will quite possibly grow into the role.

I really do like the long-term potential of Kemp, especially. He's not nearly as fast as Danario, but he's got potential both as a deep-ball threat and an over-the-middle weapon. He's just had a couple of really bad weeks, between almost getting decapitated by Ndamukong Suh last week (I honestly thought his drop last night was due to a case of alligator arms, but the replay showed that he really did just close his hands at the wrong time...which, honestly, is better than if he were starting to get a little scared) and being the perpetrator in one of Missouri's two killer mistakes, but he's a sophomore, and he's already shown ridiculous growth between years one and two. He'll likely be fine, but until he proves that he will be fine, it's hard to make a 100% confident assumption.

Tight End

Short-term panic level: 10 | Long-term panic level: 8

Last night, when Blaine Gabbert had Andrew Jones wide open on the goal line on a fourth-quarter drive (one of the two that stalled on fourth down), he ended up leaving the pocket and throwing the ball away. That was the moment I realized that our tight end problem has gone from "Tight ends are unreliable" to "It doesn't matter what the tight ends are doing anymore because Gabbert doesn't even look to them." Andrew Jones and Michael Egnew were invisible enough over the first month of the season (to the point where Gary Pinkel started Beau Brinkley over both of them at Nevada to send a message) that Gabbert apparently doesn't even trust them enough to see them as an option. Considering where we thought we were before the season--Jones as a reliable 3rd-and-7 threat, Egnew as the guy with red zone potential--this is extremely alarming. Gabbert desperately needs another consistent weapon to complement Danario and Perry, and while we all thought Jones was just the man, it hasn't happened. As fans, we cannot truly determine why, but if Missouri really is going to go 9-3 this year (which is certainly still a possibility), they need Jones and Gabbert to reconnect. Obviously everybody in this unit returns next year--Jones, Egnew, Brinkley, and redshirting freshman Alex Sanders--but they need to buy Gabbert a steak, get on his good side, and get going with the rapport they had in the spring, when Jones and Egnew were Gabbert's top two targets.

Offensive Line

Short-term panic level: 5 | Long-term panic level: 3

It's pretty clear that, as is usually the case, we were underestimating the loss of starters Colin Brown and Ryan Madison from last year's offensive line. That, combined with a tweak in technique that they apparently made this summer, have resulted in some early growing pains with this line. For the most part, I did like what they did last night against a decent OSU front seven, at least in the first half. Once Missouri fell behind and the OSU secondary started playing better, it ended up predictably affecting how OSU's front seven performed as well, and Missouri didn't have as many options available to them down the stretch. That said, though, they absolutely get a passing grade for last night's game.

Long-term, things are still pretty rosy. Four of Missouri's current five starters--Elvis Fisher, Austin Wuebbels, Tim Barnes, and Dan Hoch--will return in 2010, and only Kurtis Gregory does not. He is a strong lineman, and he will be missed, but Missouri will be in much better shape to replace him, as both Jayson Palmgren and J.T. Beasley will be juniors and are getting plenty of reps this year. That, combined with freshman Jack Meiners getting some playing time, mean that O-line depth should be a strength in 2010. I still like the potential of the line this year, and I think that with hindsight the early struggles should have been a bit predictable.

Defensive End

Short-term panic level: 6 | Long-term panic level: 2

From a run-support standpoint, there is absolutely nothing to complain about with this line. Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Briant Coulter all stand up to blocks well and are excellent at pursuit. Good mixture of speed and size. But they HAVE to start rushing the passer better. Aldon Smith is pretty reliably going to make a couple of plays a game--last night it was a couple of timely blocked passes. But Jacquies really hasn't been very disruptive at all, and even though Missouri got in Robinson's face a few times last night, the pocket never completely closed in on him, and he was always able to escape and make a throw, even if he was just throwing the ball away.

Now...Aldon Smith is a redshirt freshman and Jacquies a true sophomore. It's easy to forget that sometimes, but while their potential is clear, consistency comes with playing time, and clearly neither has had enough yet. We've got a potential all-conference performer in Agent Aldon and a potentially solid three-year starter in Agent Jacquies, but they're just not ready to make every-down contributions yet. If there's a concern here, it's depth. Brad Madison has been on the field this season, but you couldn't tell it from the stats. Marcus Malbrough looked decent in junk-time against Furman, but that's it. Hopefully one of the redshirting freshmen--either Michael Sam or Brayden Burnett--can be counted on to make a contribution next season; otherwise we'll be leaning on Smith and Smith even more next year with Coulter's departure.

Defensive Tackle

Short-term panic level: 2 | Long-term panic level: 4

LOVE what this unit did last night. Jaron Baston was great, and I noticed Dominique Hamilton quite a bit. While Missouri's run defense hasn't been as good this year as last, I thought it was an encouraging sign that, against an OSU team with a rock-solid offensive line and a very good between-the-tackles runner in Keith Toston, Missouri held OSU's running backs to just 87 yards on 27 carries (3.2 per carry). It was their best performance of the year, and if Missouri can count on that for the rest of the year, this defense will continue to look damn good.

For 2010 and beyond, there is a concern here simply because Baston is a senior. Hamilton and Terrell Resonno are the current projected 2010 starters, and while both have looked decent at times, they've clearly been the #2 and #3 DTs (in some order) behind Baston. They will need to continue to develop for Missouri not to drop off here. Of course, two young guys could make this unit a severe strength in the future: Marvin Foster and Sheldon Richardson. Foster was quickly working his way into the DT rotation in August before injuring his knee and redshirting. Assuming he's at full strength in 2010 (and with this staff, a knee injury is child's play), he could be an immediate contributor. Meanwhile, Richardson is an obvious X-factor starting in 2011, assuming he still attends Missouri (and with the comments from his JUCO coach a couple of months ago, that seems like a comfortable assumption for now).

With Resonno, Hamilton, Foster, and maybe Jimmy Burge or George White, this unit could still be strong in 2010, especially if Resonno or Hamilton make a Baston-esque leap between their sophomore and junior seasons. And in 2011, with all of those players back with Richardson added to the mix, they could be excellent. The only reason I put the long-term panic level at a 4 is that it's still an assumption that Resonno or Hamilton will make that leap, and as I said with Wes Kemp above, until it happens, it's at least a little bit of a concern.

Linebacker

Short-term panic level: 1 | Long-term panic level: 2

Even without Will Ebner, I had no complaints with this unit last night. Sean Weatherspoon was outstanding, and Luke Lambert played well, even forcing a late fumble that, uhh, was bafflingly called a non-fumble by the replay official (seriously, get the replay official a bigger monitor please). Andrew Gachkar was around the ball quite a bit, even if he didn't make a ton of plays, and Zaviar Gooden made an outstanding play on an option run. With the strong run defense Missouri showed, clearly the linebackers had a role in that.

Missouri obviously loses 'Spoon after this season, but the long-term prospects are still bright. Ebner, Gachkar and Lambert return in 2010, and with Gooden, Donovan Bonner and hopefully Joshua Tatum assuming backup roles...yeah, let's just say that at least two, and potentially three of Missouri's backups would have been starting LBs for Mizzou anytime between 2000 and 2005. I'm really excited about this unit, even without SPOOOON.

Defensive Back

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 2

Don't know what to think about this unit. Hubert Anyiam had a career day last night, but as the offense was falling apart in the second half last night, the secondary continuously made plays and prevented OSU from running away with the game. Seriously, with the field position advantage OSU had last night, they very well could have ended up winning something like 45-17 or something, but they didn't. The Carl Gettis Treatment looked good, Jasper Simmons looked good, and after getting burned once on a double move (and bailed out by Simmons), Robert Steeples got a ton of playing time and did not allow Anyiam to do much of anything on a series of Q4 third-down passes. I'm not sure why Steeples was in there that much--was Kevin Rutland being punished for allowing the slant-route TD on the last play of the first half?--but he acquitted himself well. I still wish we were seeing more out of our boy Kenji Jackson, but this unit has still looked good for most of 2009...

...and all of the major contributors return for 2010. Only Del Howard and Hardy Ricks depart after this year, and no offense to them, but I'm not going to lose a lot of sleep over that. Gettis, Rutland, Steeples, Kip Edwards and Munir Prince all return at CB, and Simmons, Jackson, and Jarrell Harrison all look like keepers at safety. And if a redshirting freshman like Matt White forces his way into the rotation in 2010, all the better.

In all, the hopes for this defense in 2010 and beyond are quite high. By the end of this season, Aldon Smith, Will Ebner, Andrew Gachkar, Carl Gettis, Jasper Simmons and others will have all proven themselves at a pretty high level, and with guys like Dominique Hamilton, Terrell Resonno, Jacquies Smith, Zaviar Gooden, Kevin Rutland, Kenji Jackson, Robert Steeples and Jarrell Harrison all having shown flashes of really nice play, the 2010 defense will be as deep a play-making defense as Missouri will have had under Gary Pinkel, even with the loss of Jaron Baston and Sean Weatherspoon.

Special Teams

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 1

An absolutely dreadful special teams effort last night, but it's hard to panic over that considering how good special teams have been for Missouri. Grant Ressel made his only FG, but karma bit Jake Harry IV in the ass, as he didn't get a single good bounce on any of his kicks. We have gotten very used to getting great rolls on his rugby kicks, and it just didn't happen last night. That, and OSU made a nice strategic play of having what seemed like two return men--one deep and one at mid-range to catch some of the punts and make sure the rolls didn't happen. Between Missouri's second-half three-and-outs and struggles in the punt game, they got drilled in the field position battle, especially in the second half.

Meanwhile, OSU broke off a couple of nice kickoff returns, which isn't entirely surprising--Perrish Cox is one of the best return men in the game--and thanks to horrific officiating (sorry, I can't let it go just yet), Missouri's own kickoff returns were major liabilities. Jasper Simmons' first great kick return was called back to a phantom hold (but hey, how much damage could a 70-yard net penalty do, really? Not much, right? Yeah...), and he lost a fumble in which his knee appeared to be down (SERIOUSLY...get the freaking replay official a bigger monitor...), but in the box score it says that kick returns were a liability.

Long-term, things look good here. Harry has been a great asset, and he is a senior, but honestly, Missouri's punting scheme is good, and whoever wins next year's punting battle (Matt Grabner? Trey Barrow? Grant Ressel?), I think this will still be a relative strength. Plus, Carl Gettis looking better and better on punt returns, and Simmons has shown at least strong straight-line speed and the capability of breaking a long return.

And we've got Ressel at place-kicker for another two years, so there's that.

Coaching

Short-term panic level: 3 | Long-term panic level: 0

I'm sorry, but I just cannot get myself that worked up about the coaching staff. I know we always look for somebody to blame when things go poorly, and I disagreed as much as anybody with David Yost's decision to call empty-backfield sets late in the game, but you know what? When you are calling 60-80 plays per game, you are going to make mistakes. Dave Christensen obviously made plenty of mistakes, and he was apparently good enough at his job to score a Mountain West head coaching position. Meanwhile, one of the best coordinators in the country--OU's Kevin Wilson--is getting destroyed by the OU fanbase for sucking...and he's one of the best coordinators in the game. Missouri fans are spoiled by previous successes, but in his first year on the job, Yost is already a decent coordinator, and when Missouri gains in experience, he will probably start looking like a really good one. People calling for his head or already falling back on the dumb old "Gary Pinkel's too stubborn!!!!1!!!" line are...well, they're being ridiculous. Get over yourselves--this is a good offensive staff, and it will only get better. Blaine Gabbert was two drops away from having 360 first-half passing yards last night. It takes good play-calling for that to happen.

Meanwhile, I don't think any of us can have much complaint with the job Dave Steckel and the defensive staff are doing, right? Or are we still managing to be pissed at them too? You tell me.

---

I know I'm either a) preaching to the choir or b) yelling at people who have their minds made up here (and are more than willing to yell back), but man oh man...BIG PICTURE HERE, PEOPLE. Most of us did not expect to be better than 4-2 right now, and now that it's happened, we're flying off the handle. But anyway. Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:00:07 -0000

A couple quick notes about additions before we launch into the stat orgy that is the BTBS Preview.

I've added "Sack Rates" back into the mix now. Not sure why I didn't earlier, but they're there now. Sack Rate = Sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)
I've also added a "Run Rate" measure looking at Passing Downs and Non-Passing Downs. Run Rate = Rushes / Total Plays. Easy enough, right? Among other things, this looks at how aggressive or conservative an offense is, and/or how much it tends to respect the defense it's opposing. If your Run Rate is pretty high on Passing Downs, that suggests that you really don't trust that you can throw the ball downfield without a disaster.
I changed "Total Turnover Points Margin" to "Turnover Points Margin per Game". The numbers were getting pretty big, and it was easy to lose track of what the turnovers have meant on a game-to-game basis.

Alright...orgy time! I should note that CUbuffs.com has a fantastic PDF of season stats as well. I wish every school went into this much detail.

Missouri	Opp.		Colorado	Opp.
54.2%		% Close	88.8%
54.0%	46.0%	Field Position %	51.0%	49.0%
76.4%	68.8%	Leverage %	61.0%	68.6%

		Total
478	536	Plays	503	487
251.65	178.78	EqPts	135.56	150.48
57.1%	42.5%	Success Rate	37.4%	42.1%
0.53	0.33	PPP	0.27	0.31
1.098	0.759	S&P	0.631	0.728

		Close Games
296	254	Plays	441	438
154.31	85.03	EqPts	115.20	136.75
56.8%	42.1%	Success Rate	37.0%	41.6%
0.52	0.33	PPP	0.26	0.31
1.089	0.756	S&P	0.631	0.728

		Rushing
88.91	58.34	EqPts	54.58	79.72
51.5%	38.8%	Success Rate	40.9%	45.5%
0.45	0.24	PPP	0.21	0.33
0.969	0.626	S&P	0.621	0.782
3.10	2.41	Line Yds/carry	2.79	3.15

		Passing
162.73	120.44	EqPts	80.99	70.77
61.0%	45.7%	Success Rate	33.7%	39.9%
0.58	0.41	PPP	0.33	0.29
1.187	0.871	S&P	0.667	0.690
2.1%	5.5%	Sack Rate	6.5%	4.9%

		Non-Passing Downs
61.9%	47.7%	Success Rate	41.7%	48.2%
0.55	0.34	PPP	0.27	0.32
1.170	0.818	S&P	0.688	0.798
1.0%	4.1%	Sack Rate	7.9%	5.6%
47.1%	54.2%	Run Rate	58.6%	57.2%

		Passing Downs
41.6%	31.1%	Success Rate	30.6%	28.8%
0.45	0.32	PPP	0.27	0.29
0.864	0.629	S&P	0.573	0.582
4.5%	7.4%	Sack Rate	5.0%	4.0%
21.2%	26.9%	Run Rate	39.3%	34.6%

		Turnovers
9	12	Total	15	12
24.43	28.95	Points Lost	36.05	24.43
22.65	50.19	Points Given	34.72	36.98
47.08	79.14	Total T/O Pts	70.77	61.41
+4.58	-4.58	T/O Pts Margin/Gm	-1.34	+1.34

Thoughts after the jump.

The longer this game stays close, the better for Colorado. Not only do they have greater experience in close-game situations, but after MU failed to come back against OSU, there will be 68,000 butts puckering in the seats if this is a one-possession game in Q4. Plus, CU's obviously performed pretty well in clutch situations, considering they're 4-3 despite being outscored, both in EqPts and actual points.
CU's defense has done well in forcing offenses into Passing Downs (69% leverage rate). Unfortunately, that good work has been negated by an atrocious offense (61% leverage rate). Cody Nolte-Hawkins isn't a very good QB, but he's an even worse QB when almost half the plays he runs are in Passing Down situations.
Mizzou's offensive PPP is twice that of Colorado. Colorado's longest play this year: 38 yards. Meanwhile, from an S&P standpoint, MU's and CU's defenses have performed equally, though as we saw in my Big 12 piece on Tuesday, CU's defense gets the nod because they've played better competition overall.
MU's close-game stats took a hit with their miserable performance last Saturday. Fortunately for them, the performance was so miserable that there weren't enough close-game plays to affect their season stats much! Woohoo!
Mizzou will be able to run the ball on Colorado. This game comes at a nice time, as Mizzou's O-line is totally devoid of confidence right now, and they need to see some success. Well, CU's D-line just isn't that good, either in run defense or in pass rush. CU's linebackers and secondary have performed well, but notsomuch their line.
We've heard about the makeshift O-line Colorado has struggled with this year, but CU's Line Yards/carry really haven't been that bad. That suggests that CU's RBs are as much to blame as the OL for the poor rushing performance.
I'm curious to see how a good Colorado secondary will do against Mizzou with no discernible pass rush. Then again, I said OSU didn't have a pass rush either, and they disrupted Chase Daniel's rhythm all night. I take it back. I didn't say this.
Colorado has a 41.7% success rate on Non-Passing Downs. Mizzou has a 41.6% success rate on Passing Downs. Ouch.
If averages stand (and they rarely do), Mizzou stands to gain about 6 points in turnovers. Colorado needs to flip that and reverse it if they have any shot of staying with Mizzou.

Now some By-Quarter and By-Down stats...

Missouri	Opp.		Colorado	Opp.
		Q1
55.6%	50.8%	Success Rate	36.6%	40.5%
0.56	0.34	PPP	0.30	0.36
1.116	0.849	S&P	0.666	0.763

		Q2
56.4%	41.0%	Success Rate	38.0%	38.8%
0.51	0.30	PPP	0.25	0.29
1.078	0.713	S&P	0.629	0.680

		Q3
62.7%	39.1%	Success Rate	33.3%	43.2%
0.62	0.36	PPP	0.21	0.35
1.250	0.748	S&P	0.544	0.787

		Q4
52.9%	40.0%	Success Rate	40.0%	45.3%
0.38	0.34	PPP	0.32	0.25
0.914	0.736	S&P	0.724	0.698

		1st Downs
59.8%	44.8%	Success Rate	35.2%	41.5%
0.56	0.36	PPP	0.28	0.30
1.159	0.805	S&P	0.629	0.719

		2nd Downs
58.4%	37.6%	Success Rate	36.9%	45.7%
0.47	0.31	PPP	0.27	0.33
1.057	0.685	S&P	0.640	0.783

		3rd Downs
49.3%	44.7%	Success Rate	40.2%	38.2%
0.53	0.32	PPP	0.26	0.31
1.021	0.765	S&P	0.659	0.696

CU's offense is consistently bad, but they're at their worst during the second-half adjustment period. Meanwhile, the MU defense has been pretty consistently decent after Q1. No idea how this changes with Mizzou's new "back to basics on defense" mantra, but we'll assume it won't change much. Colorado, with their one first-drive TD this year, could be in trouble if they don't score early.
CU's defense has been pretty poor in the "game-planning" quarters (Q1, Q3), but they seem to adjust pretty well as the half progresses. Meanwhile, despite last week's first-half debacle, Mizzou's offensive numbers are still pretty consistently great Q1-Q3.
The Mizzou defense's best down is 2nd down; meanwhile the Colorado defense's worst down is 2nd down. I don't bring this up for any constructive reason. I just found it strange. There's a story to be told somewhere regarding teams' variances on 2nd downs, but I don't know what that story is yet.
CU's offense: consistently bad on every down. But hey...consistency's good, right?

Caption contest!

Before I move on with any more constructive analysis, I just wanted to share this pic from the CUbuffs.com football homepage. Nick Nolte smiles!

Hey coach, Darrell Scott just turned into the #1 RB in the country!

Special teams

Anyhoo, moving along...CU's special teams unit is the exact opposite of what it was a couple years ago--they actually have a pretty solid return threat, but their kicking game is atrocious. Josh Smith has emerged as a good return man, averaging 10.5 yards per punt return (with a long of 51) and an outstanding 28.3 yards per kick return (with 1 TD). Mizzou's experimentation with rugby-style punting was brought on by a general fear of Dez Bryant two games ago. I'd almost suggest that Smith is as scary as Bryant is in the return game. I mean...I'd still pick Jeremy Maclin over him and all, but still...Smith = good.

Meanwhile, PK Aric Goodman = terrible. He is 1-for-7 on FG's of 30 yards or more. One-for-seven! His long: 32. Mason Crosby, he is not. Hell, the kicker for my high school team was able to pretty regularly make FGs of less than 40 yards. He even made a 52-yarder once. Needless to say, a) Mizzou draws an advantage here if CU has to rely on Goodman for a late FG, and b) Colorado will likely be going for it on most fourth downs in Mizzou territory.

Projections

I spoiled the projections surprise on Tuesday, but I'll elaborate here. From this point on, I will use Big 12 per-game averages and Big 12 '+' rankings to make the projections, and I won't make any more "2008 adjustments." These first couple of projections may suffer from smallsamplesizeitis, but...oh well.

Mizzou Rushing

Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 122.3
Colorado Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 11.9
Projection #1: 14.55
Colorado Rushing Defense EqPts+: 109.8
Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.4
Projection #2: 8.56

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 11.56

Mizzou Passing

Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 118.5
Colorado Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.4
Projection #1: 15.88
Colorado Passing Defense EqPts+: 121.2
Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.8
Projection #2: 16.34

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 16.11

Colorado Rushing

Colorado Rushing Offense EqPts+: 76.4
Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.1
Projection #1: 9.24
Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 118.0
Colorado Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 7.5
Projection #2: 6.36

Projected Colorado Rushing Output: 7.80

Colorado Passing

Colorado Passing Offense EqPts+: 58.5
Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 18.4
Projection #1: 10.76
Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 101.3
Colorado Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 9.3
Projection #2: 9.18

Projected Colorado Passing Output: 9.97

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 27.67, Colorado 17.77

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 31, Colorado 14

Colorado: Key Players

RB Rodney Stewart

It's pretty easy to figure out what CU's likely offensive gameplan will be. Judging by their personnel and the fact that they rushed 57 times last week against Kansas State, it's likely CU will attempt the ball-control, "3 plays, 10 yards, do it again" style against us, and the key to that will be Stewart. While everybody expected a freshman to lead CU in rushing this year, nobody thought it would be the 5'6 Stewart--everybody assumed Everybody's All-American Darrell Scott would be the guy. For whatever reason (nagging injury?), that just hasn't happened. Through seven games, Scott has amassed just 10.51 EqPts (and 167 yards) on the ground. his 0.552 S&P has been downright awful. Stewart, on the other hand, has been far from explosive (just 0.21 PPP), but he's been consistent and reliable, with a 47.9% success rate and 4.9 yards per carry. If CU's going to stay out of passing downs and move the chains, their hopes will lie on the back of the smallest guy on the field.

WR Josh Smith

Unless Darrell Scott suddenly realizes his potential overnight, Smith is CU's only big-play threat. CU has just 8 plays of 30 or more yards all year, but Smith has three of them. He is the only CU WR who averages more than 10.3 yards per reception (14.3). You may be able to work a length-of-the-field-at-4-yards-a-play drive against Missouri once, maybe even twice. But at some point, to beat Missouri you're going to have to come up with a big play or two, and if Smith can't do it (either receiving or in the return game), I don't know if anybody can.

DT George Hypolite

Mizzou's offensive line is vulnerable, so now would be a good time for Hypolite to break out of his season-long doldrums. As CU's only proven DL threat, Hypolite has been double-teamed a lot, but with out a strong pass rush (starting DEs Maurice Lucas and Jason Brace have combined for 1.5 sacks), he will need to be a dominant force if CU is going to get any pressure on Chase Daniel. OSU provided a blueprint for getting to Chase, but I'm not sure CU has the personnel to do it.

FS Ryan Walters

Walters has forced three fumbles this year and recovered two. CU has to come up big in the turnover game, and considering their INTs leader (Cha'pelle Brown) has all of two, I'd say Walters is the leading candidate to do something.

Missouri: Key Players

OLs Colin Brown, Kurtis Gregory, Tim Barnes, Ryan Madison, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Austin Wuebbels, and whoever else is going to be getting playing time

Chase Daniel was alright, Jeremy Maclin was good, Chase Coffman was amazing...and Missouri scored 3 points in the first half against Texas last week. Texas' D-line was by far the best Mizzou will face this year, but for two straight games the Mizzou offensive line has been terrible, and it's time for them to prove something. We know they're capable of good things--just look at the Nebraska and Illinois games--but it's time they proved they're still capable.

RB Derrick Washington

It hasn't really been his fault, but Washington has been the forgotten man the last two weeks. He torched Nebraska for 13.52 EqPts. He put 11.39 EqPts up against Illinois. But against OSU and Texas, he combined for just 8.90. If the O-line's blocking better, and if Washington is running mean, Mizzou will trounce Colorado.

FS William Moore

With Mizzou trailing 14-0 and in desperate need of a play, Colt McCoy fired one toward the endzone on 3rd-and-20, and Willy Mo came from the inside of the WR, jumped to pick off the pass...and missed. The ball touched his hands but ended up in the hands of Malcolm Williams. It was the perfect representation of Moore's season to date. He was hampered early in the season by injury, and he has yet to have the typical Willy Mo game yet. I will continue to put him on this list until he does something.

LB Sean Weatherspoon

I've defended the Mizzou defense a decent amount this week--sure, they got embarrassed by Texas last week, but Texas was going to embarrass anybody in the country last week. They were not going to be stopped. Mizzou's defense actually shut down a decent offense in Nebraska's and held a good OSU offense below (or right at) its averages.

All that said, the defense needs some confidence, and it needs to start making some damn plays. If Willy Mo isn't going to do it, then my eyes turn to 'Spoon, Mizzou's leading playmaker so far this year. This last week has to have eaten 'Spoon up--not only did his defense get obliterated last week, but he completely disappeared against the home state school that didn't bother to recruit him. He should play pissed off on Saturday. He better play pissed off on Saturday.

Summary

My initial instinct last Saturday night and Sunday was to think, "Holy crap, Missouri is going to DESTROY Colorado next weekend." The more I think about it, the more I think that that's only partially right. After last year's 55-10 debacle in Boulder, I see Colorado doing everything in its power to keep this game slow and close. No more Cover-1 defense (meaning, unfortunately, Chase likely won't complete 46 deep balls like he did in Boulder)--keep everything in front of you and make Missouri go the length of the field. Meanwhile, the part-time presence of freshman dual-threat QB Tyler Hansen means CU will likely run the ball whenever possible and do whatever it can to get 10 yards in 3 plays and eat up the clock.

Because of this, Missouri's time of possession could be about as bad as it was against Nebraska. Of course, despite running 15 fewer plays than NU, Mizzou still managed to score 52 and win easy. This isn't as confident a bunch of players as what took the field in Lincoln just three weeks ago, and CU's defense is better than NU's, so I definitely don't see a repeat of that performance. But I do see Mizzou coasting to a relatively boring (for them), low-scoring (for them) win. They might not cover, but they probably won't struggle much either. Mizzou 35, Colorado 14.

Poll

Who scares you most about Colorado?

The two-headed QB (Cody Nolte-Hawkins, Tyler Hansen)

3 votes

RB Rodney Stewart

15 votes

RB Darrell Scott (on reputation alone)

10 votes

WR Josh Smith

7 votes

DT George Hypolite

8 votes

LB Brad Jones

1 votes

DB Ryan Walters

0 votes

Nobody

29 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:30:04 -0000

As we look at this season's to-date BTBS stats, keep in mind that we can approximately say that Mizzou and UT have played similar schedules. I mean, OU > OSU, but Illinois > anybody UT played in non-conference. In the end, it's more or less balanced out (to my naked eye, anyway), and we can take these stats at something close to face value.

Mizzou	Opp.		Texas	Opp.
58.1%		% Close	54.1%
56.1%	43.9%	Field Position %	56.5%	43.5%
78.0%	66.9%	Leverage %	77.3%	62.3%

		Total
416	462	Plays	428	398
225.66	134.25	EqPts	204.58	107.25
57.7%	39.4%	Success Rate	51.9%	34.9%
0.54	0.29	PPP	0.48	0.27
1.116	0.685	S&P	0.997	0.619

		Close Games
284	227	Plays	237	210
153.60	69.36	EqPts	130.01	60.23
58.5%	39.2%	Success Rate	54.9%	35.7%
0.54	0.31	PPP	0.55	0.29
1.125	0.698	S&P	1.097	0.644

		Rushing
83.61	38.73	EqPts	89.93	18.85
52.0%	35.4%	Success Rate	47.7%	31.6%
0.47	0.19	PPP	0.37	0.14
0.987	0.542	S&P	0.850	0.455
3.23	2.28	Line Yds/carry	3.22	2.28

		Passing
142.05	95.51	EqPts	114.65	88.41
61.9%	42.6%	Success Rate	57.2%	36.6%
0.59	0.37	PPP	0.61	0.34
1.214	0.799	S&P	1.185	0.704

		Non-Passing Downs
62.6%	44.7%	Success Rate	54.7%	40.7%
0.56	0.31	PPP	0.45	0.27
1.184	0.762	S&P	0.994	0.678

		Passing Downs
41.3%	28.8%	Success Rate	42.3%	25.3%
0.46	0.24	PPP	0.58	0.27
0.876	0.529	S&P	1.007	0.527

		Turnovers
8	12	Total	6	9
23.53	28.95	Points Lost	16.72	22.00
18.40	50.19	Points Given	20.55	35.12
41.93	79.14	Total T/O Pts	37.27	57.12
+37.21	-37.21	*T/O Pts Margin*	+19.85	-19.85

		Q1
60.0%	46.6%	Success Rate	53.8%	38.9%
0.62	0.30	PPP	0.51	0.25
1.218	0.768	S&P	1.050	0.635

		Q2
56.6%	36.5%	Success Rate	60.6%	39.0%
0.56	0.23	PPP	0.58	0.37
1.124	0.592	S&P	1.186	0.765

		Q3
63.3%	37.5%	Success Rate	54.3%	25.0%
0.63	0.35	PPP	0.44	0.20
1.263	0.728	S&P	0.981	0.453

		Q4
49.5%	38.0%	Success Rate	36.3%	34.7%
0.32	0.29	PPP	0.38	0.24
0.814	0.669	S&P	0.741	0.587

		1st Downs
59.7%	41.5%	Success Rate	48.1%	37.0%
0.56	0.32	PPP	0.47	0.25
1.160	0.732	S&P	0.954	0.616

		2nd Downs
60.0%	35.3%	Success Rate	55.2%	34.1%
0.50	0.26	PPP	0.48	0.25
1.097	0.617	S&P	1.037	0.591

		3rd Downs
49.2%	40.2%	Success Rate	52.7%	33.7%
0.55	0.27	PPP	0.48	0.37
1.043	0.669	S&P	1.006	0.707

Thoughts...

This game will likely lie on the right arms of the two BFF's, Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy, as both teams have pretty stout run defenses. UT's run defense is a little better, but MU's run offense is better, so unless Ogbonnaya continues to break off 1-2 big runs a game, this is pretty much a wash.
One thing I find interesting: UT allows 2.28 line yards per carry. So does Mizzou. That's a very good number, but looking at the overall rushing numbers, I'd have expected a little better for UT. For instance, they allow a 0.455 rushing S&P (compared to Mizzou's 0.542); but UT and Mizzou have allowed the exact same LY/carry. The reason: while Mizzou has allowed few big rushes (longest five rushes: 68, 41, 35, 22, 18), UT has allowed almost no big rushes (longest five carries: 26, 26, 21, 21, 19). Really, the only difference between the Mizzou rush defense and that of Texas is Kendall Hunter's 68-yard TD run and a 41-yard scamper by Illinois' Daniel Dufrene (which I do not even remotely remember--that game was a Shiner-and-Jager-fueled blur).
Both teams are good at the leverage (avoiding Passing Downs on offense, moving opponents toward them on defense). They stay near 80% leverage while holding their opponents near 60-65%. Mizzou held OSU near 65%, while Texas held OU to 66%. Again, this is important because even teams who generally perform well on Passing Downs can get bitten by them eventually (Mizzou against OSU, for instance). The lower the leverage %, the more passing downs a team has to face.
To no one's surprise, Mizzou has been more explosive than Texas to date (0.54 PPP vs 0.48 PPP). UT's PPP has risen in the last couple of games, thanks to a few long plays to Chris Ogbonnaya. I can't figure Ogbonnaya out--he doesn't look fast at all, but defenders can't seem to catch up to him. And I don't know how much of his success has been due to his own skills or the skills of Colt McCoy and the guys blocking for him, but he's torched a decent defense (Colorado) and a good one (Oklahoma) so far, and you can't argue with results.
Both teams have similar S&P margins, both overall and in close games. In close games, MU is +0.427 (1.125 on offense, 0.698 on defense), while UT is +0.453.
Both teams have the tendency to give up some big pass plays (they both allow at least 0.34 PPP in the passing game), but the key for Texas will be holding Mizzou as close as possible to the 37% success rate that Texas opponents have managed so far, instead of the 62% Mizzou has put up. And it all ends up tying together. An unsuccessful passing attempt here and there means more Passing Downs...and Mizzou sucked on Passing Downs against OSU.
And speaking once more of Passing Downs, both defenses have been identically strong in this regard.
Turnovers could always swing either way, but so far Mizzou has had a tendency of making more of the turnover game than UT has--they've benefitted from t/o's by about 3 more points per game.
Mizzou's offense is best in Q1 and Q3, while their defense is best in Q2 and Q4, but overall they've been pretty consistently strong in both categories. Meanwhile, OU game aside, UT has been best on offense in the first half and best on defense in the second half.
Texas' defense has the overall advantage on Mizzou's, but Mizzou has been better (and allowed fewer big plays) on third downs. Keep that in mind.

Projections after the jump.

Mizzou-Texas '+' Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2008 Texas Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 3.14
Projection #1: 4.29
2007 Texas Rushing Defense EqPts+: 138.88
2008 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 13.94
Projection #2: 10.04

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 7.17

Adjusted for 2008: 5.0. No, I haven't lost my faith in Derrick Washington (or as the scoreboard at Faurot calls him, Der Washington) and the Mizzou offensive line. I just don't see Mizzou attempting to run a ton, and I'm okay with that. That's right, I'm okay with it, and for one reason: I see Mizzou having a lot of success with the "run-esque" short passes. The true "rushing" output will be small, but the whole idea (to paraphrase horrifically) behind a balance of run-pass is that you can exploit holes close to and far from the line of scrimmage. Mizzou's short passing game is really just a series of long pitches, and if they can use that to their advantage, they'll be in this game.

But it sure wouldn't hurt if Derrick Washington was able to actually break a decent run here and there...something Texas really hasn't allowed all year.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2008 Texas Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 14.74
Projection #1: 23.11
2007 Texas Passing Defense EqPts+: 106.08
2008 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 23.68
Projection #2: 22.32

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 22.72

Adjusted for 2008: 25.0. Texas has been pretty decent at defending the pass, but a) those short passes I just referenced will count as passing yards, obviously, and b) they have indeed given up some deep balls. The opportunity will be there for Chase Daniel to have a big game, as long as the line protects him.

Texas Rushing

2007 Texas Rushing Offense EqPts+: 143.27
2008 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 6.46
Projection #1: 9.26
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2008 Texas Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.99
Projection #2: 12.29

Projected Texas Rushing Output: 10.78

Adjusted for 2008: 10.0. This projection is based mostly off of a) my confidence in Mizzou's rush defense, and b) my fear of Texas' dump-off passes. Like MU, I expect UT to succeed more throwing than running. Then again, if Mizzou's DEs let Colt McCoy get out of the pocket in "run or throw" territory, the points could add up.

Texas Passing

2007 Texas Passing Offense EqPts+: 116.46
2008 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 15.92
Projection #1: 18.54
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2008 Texas Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.11
Projection #2: 18.39

Projected Texas Passing Output: 18.46

Adjusted for 2008: 19.0. A disciplined defense could see success against Texas' offense--if you keep Colt McCoy in the pocket, don't miss any assignments (like OU started to do after Ryan Reynolds got hurt), and tackle well, they don't necessarily have guys who can create an 80-yard TD out of thin air (though Jordan Shipley did look great against OU). But they take advantage of mistakes, and Mizzou has the tendency to make a couple a game in the passing game.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Texas 29.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Texas 32, Mizzou 27

Texas: Key Players

RB Chris Ogbonnaya

Ogbonnaya has gone crazy in the last two weeks, catching even some UT fans off-guard. He has benefited from circumstance as much as anything--Colt McCoy's crazy last-possible-second dump-off pass to him against CU (I'm sure you saw the replay) was almost all on Colt, and his big, all-but-game-clinching run against OU was as much on OU's backup MLB for getting horrifically out of position. But even with that said, it's clear that he's emerged as a weapon, and Mizzou has to account for him. Cody Johnson is great near the goalline, but that's really his only purpose. Vondrell McGee hasn't proven worthy of a starter's load just yet, and explosive and injury-prone RSFr Fozzy Whitaker is more myth than reality thus far (seriously, BON loves that guy). Unless Whitaker suddenly emerges, it's on Ogbonnaya to be both the main running threat and the guy who McCoy dumps off to for good yardage.

Either WR Jordan Shipley or WR Quan Cosby -- whichever isn't being covered by Carl Gettis

Credit where it's due: Mizzou once again shut down an opponent's #1 receiving threat last week (Dez Bryant had just 47 yards), and it wan't even very much due to Carl "The Best CB Nobody's Heard Of" Gettis. Mizzou decided to put the bigger Castine Bridges on him most of the night (and hit him early and often), and it worked. However, once again a different receiver emerged with a big game--Damian Davis had 76 yards and 2 TDs. Neither Shipley nor Cosby are very big, so it's a given that Mizzou will stick Gettis on whichever they deem the #1 threat, and that receiver probably won't do much. But the other one could make the difference between Texas scoring 20 points and Texas scoring 40.

LB Roddrick Muckelroy

I mentioned previously that, in playing against the Mizzou offense, it doesn't matter how good your LBs are, and it barely matters how good your secondary is. OSU prove me wrong somewhat and proved that there's a way to beat Mizzou without having tremendous DEs: shoot the gaps with reckless abandon, confuse Mizzou's O-line, and tackle well. Texas will beat Mizzou if a) they can blow up Mizzou's running game and b) they can then tackle well and contain the short passes. The main man in regard to both (a) and (b) could be Muckelroy. He leads the UT defense with 20.5 'successful' tackles from the WLB position, and he allows SLB Sergio Kindle to serve as basically a rush end. Kindle and Brian Orakpo have gotten most of the headlines from UT's front seven, but Muckelroy could be the key against Mizzou.

S's Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas

Repeat after me: "Chase Daniel is going against a secondary led by two freshman safeties." Gideon and Thomas might be playing above their years so far this year (Thomas looked great against OU), but OU still passed for almost 400 yards last week, and if anybody can make them look like freshmen quickly and precisely, it's Daniel.

Mizzou: Key Players

QB Chase Daniel

We'll go with one big "DUH!" for this one. The last time Mizzou was coming off of an unexpected loss (2006 Iowa State), Daniel responded with 356 passing yards and 4 TDs (plus 39 rushing yards). He might need 456 yards this Saturday, but it's in him to bounce back from his worst performance in two years, and if Mizzou is going to beat the #1 team on the road, they'll do it via his right arm.

OLs Ryan Madison, Tim Barnes and Kurtis Gregory

These three are the starters on the interior of Mizzou's O-line. UT has great DEs, and therefore Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher will also need to pack a lunch; but OSU was able to break down the middle of MU's O-line quite effectively, and if they fail to do their job, this could kill both the Mizzou running game and passing game. Derrick Washington thrived up the middle for the first five games of the year, and there was nothing there against OSU. I do think Mizzou can win without Washington being a running threat (as I suggested above), but the margin for error becomes much, much smaller...especially if UT has an up-the-middle pass rush to complement Kindle and Orakpo.

DEs Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis

The best point Gabe at PowerMizzou made in today's PM mailbag is that Colt McCoy is at his best outside the pocket. He is a gunslinger-type, improvising and creating on the fly; basically, he's what I thought we were getting in Chase Daniel (instead of the automated computer that he turned out to be). His best plays come in high-risk, high-reward situations, and eventually that could backfire on him--just think of all the different ways his aforementioned spur-of-the-moment sideline pass to Ogbonnaya against Colorado could have backfired. But it hasn't backfired on him in 2008 yet.

When Colt's out of the pocket, he's in his comfort zone--when he's stuck in the pocket, he becomes more mistake-prone. Sulak and Chavis have both done well in making plays in the backfield, but if they get to McCoy, they better bring him down. Otherwise, simply containing him is the best option. If Good Colt is on display, chances are our DEs aren't playing very well.

FS William Moore

I mentioned last week that I would continue to put William Moore on the "Key Players" list until he has a big game. Well, he started to look like Willy Mo against OSU, but until he has a big pick, he's not back to 100%. He is Mizzou's game-changer, and at some point soon he's going to step up. And if he wants to be the one who makes McCoy pay for gunslinging ways, I won't complain.

Summary

No matter what you believe in the "Texas spurned Chase spurned Texas" saga, chances are that Chase Daniel marked this Saturday's game on his calendar the moment after he put ink to paper and faxed in his Letter of Intent in February 2005. What's funny is, while Mizzou has played well in Texas with Chase at the helm (romping through last year's Cotton Bowl, whipping Texas Tech in '06), Daniel himself hasn't played all that well. Needless to say, that ends Saturday. Mizzou won't beat Texas without Daniel having one of those ridiculously good days we've enjoyed over the last two years.

It's easy to remain haunted by the OSU loss (and judging from the aforementioned PowerMizzou mailbag, most Mizzou fans still are), but let's realize two things: 1) every team in the country has lost a game like that in the last year and a half, and 2) not a single Mizzou player will be thinking a single OSU-related thought this Saturday. It's removed from their head, and what remains is the fact that if Mizzou is going to win its first ever major-sport national title, it will have to beat Texas. No margin for error, no "They can still win out after this game and maybe have a chance" scenario. It's all or nothing for Mizzou, and we'll see how they respond.

I said yesterday that if Mizzou wins, I always want to say I predicted it. Well, I predicted a Mizzou win yesterday--I've got that covered. Today, I'm going with what the stats tell me and challenging Chase Daniel (and Cheat Code Maclin, for that matter, since I haven't mentioned him once in this preview) to make up the difference. Texas 31, Mizzou 27. Prove me wrong, Mizzou.

SB Nation - Ryan Madison

Panic Level: Position-by-Position

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Offensive Line

Defensive End

Defensive Tackle

Linebacker

Defensive Back

Special Teams

Coaching

Mizzou-Colorado: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Missouri

Opp.

Colorado

Opp.

Missouri

Opp.

Colorado

Opp.

Who scares you most about Colorado?

The two-headed QB (Cody Nolte-Hawkins, Tyler Hansen)

RB Rodney Stewart

RB Darrell Scott (on reputation alone)

WR Josh Smith

DT George Hypolite

LB Brad Jones

DB Ryan Walters

Nobody

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Mizzou

Opp.

Texas

Opp.