SB Nation - Tommy Saunders

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

Bill C. — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:00:17 -0000

Image via The Trib's G.J. McCarthy

You may have noticed that, somewhere around 1pm yesterday, the title of yesterday's "Targets and Catches" post changed to "Targets and Catches (Part One)." That's because I figured out the next direction I wanted to take the concept of targets and couldn't wait to get started on it.

As discussed yesterday, the concept of targets (catches + incomplete passes intended for a given receiver) versus catches is a pretty good one, despite the likely flaws in the ways target data is collected (dropped/tipped passes that become interceptions don't have target data attached, not every scorekeeper probably records targets the same way, etc.). It allows us to look into a receiver's reliability in ways that simpler measures do not, and once national data is collected on this (offseason project #12,424), it might give us a way to measure a quarterback's performance independent of the quality of his receivers (hey Uribe Auction, here's how we get to Receiver Independent Passing Stats, or RIPS...I love it when a plan comes together).

But simply looking at a players Catch% (Catches per Target) does a disservice to those who are likely to run deeper, lower-percentage routes. How about we do this as well: create a Yards Per Target measure. Yards Per Catch is a good way to measure a receiver's explosiveness, and wouldn't the incorporation of target data create something that shows us both explosiveness and reliability? Let's try that.

Below are tables for 2006-09 giving us the following information:

Catches
Yards
Catch% (Catches divided by Targets)
Yards Per Target

2006

2006 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Chase Coffman	TE	58	638	65.2%	7.2
Martin Rucker	TE	53	511	77.9%	7.5
Will Franklin	WR	48	829	57.8%	10.0
Jared Perry	WR	37	429	67.3%	7.8
Brad Ekwerekwu	WR	32	430	64.0%	8.6
Tommy Saunders	WR	25	271	73.5%	8.0
Danario Alexander	WR	15	251	71.4%	12.0
Jason Ray	WR	6	50	40.0%	3.3
Tony Temple	RB	6	34	85.7%	4.9
Earl Goldsmith	RB	5	59	100.0%	11.8
Greg Bracey	WR	3	79	50.0%	13.2
Marcus Woods	RB	2	11	40.0%	2.2
Jimmy Jackson	RB	1	-2	50.0%	-1.0
Andrew Hoskins	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	291	3,590	66.0%	8.1

Here's where we start to see the value of Will Franklin. The 'Copta had an awful catch rate this season, but as we see here, a) he made up for it with his explosiveness, and b) being a deep threat means you're probably seeing more low-percentage passes. Meanwhile, tight ends running high-percentage routes will have good catch rates, but their Yards Per Target figures show that while it's good to have high-percentage targets, there isn't necessarily a lot of explosiveness there.

Two other interesting things to note:

1) Danario was very clearly showing his big-play potential early on. It really is a damn shame that he ended up having to fight so many injuries, but on the bright side, if he hadn't, he'd have almost certainly gone pro last year.

2) Clearly we should have been passing to Earl Goldsmith more often. Ahem.

2007

Image via the inestimable Bill Carter

2007 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Martin Rucker	TE	84	834	77.8%	7.7
Jeremy Maclin	WR	80	1,055	72.1%	9.5
Chase Coffman	TE	52	531	80.0%	8.2
Will Franklin	WR	49	709	64.5%	9.3
Tommy Saunders	WR	41	397	74.5%	7.2
Danario Alexander	WR	37	417	77.1%	8.7
Jared Perry	WR	13	152	65.0%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	10	70	71.4%	5.0
Jason Ray	WR	8	61	80.0%	6.1
Tony Temple	RB	7	68	77.8%	7.6
Jimmy Jackson	RB	6	30	100.0%	5.0
Earl Goldsmith	RB	4	20	66.7%	3.3
Greg Bracey	WR	3	53	33.3%	5.9
Blake May	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	394	4,397	73.2%	8.2

And here's where the numbers even out for Senor Goldsmith.

Even though his YPT dipped in 2007, Franklin was still a decent weapon here, averaging over 9.0 per target (which appears to be a pretty good number) and, as we must not forget, becoming one helluva downfield blocker for Maclin. In all, Chase Coffman was the most reliable target this season, but obviously the WRs were more dangerous, even though they didn't really thrust too many nunchuks.

(Non-RMN regulars just read and re-read that last sentence 5-6 times, then gave up on figuring it out what it meant. Here's the explanation.)

2008

Bill Carter again

2008 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Jeremy Maclin	WR	102	1,260	75.6%	9.3
Chase Coffman	TE	90	987	88.2%	9.7
Tommy Saunders	WR	72	833	78.3%	9.1
Jared Perry	WR	41	567	68.3%	9.5
Derrick Washington	RB	29	277	76.3%	7.3
Danario Alexander	WR	26	329	60.5%	7.7
Andrew Jones	TE	20	146	83.3%	6.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	9	98	69.2%	7.5
Earl Goldsmith	WR	5	58	83.3%	9.7
Michael Egnew	TE	4	22	50.0%	2.8
Jimmy Jackson	RB	3	26	75.0%	6.5
Wes Kemp	WR	1	15	50.0%	7.5
Jon Gissinger	TE	1	10	100.0%	10.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
Forrest Shock	WR	0	0	0.0%	0.0
TOTAL	ALL	403	4,628	76.0%	8.7

Here's where Chase Coffman became the best tight end we'll ever see. He was so reliable that throwing to him actually resulted in more yards per target than Jeremy Maclin, All-American. Here's also where Jared Perry, a.k.a. Will Franklin 2.0, began to show value. He was a reasonably reliable option his first couple of years (obviously targeted much more in 2006 than 2007, when Maclin emerged), but while he still couldn't hit 70% from a Catch% perspective, his big-play ability went up a notch, and he went from averaging 7-8 yards per target to over 9. Meanwhile, Jerrell Jackson registered with numbers very similar to Perry's freshman numbers, albeit on a small sample size.

2009

Yup, Bill Carter.

2009 Yards Per Target
Name	Pos.	Catches	Yards	Catch%	Yds/Target
Danario Alexander	WR	107	1,644	73.8%	11.3
Jared Perry	WR	46	695	53.5%	8.1
Jerrell Jackson	WR	37	458	60.7%	7.5
Wes Kemp	WR	23	335	52.3%	7.6
Derrick Washington	RB	23	99	69.7%	3.0
Andrew Jones	TE	7	39	58.3%	3.3
Rolandis Woodland	WR	4	23	66.7%	3.8
Michael Egnew	TE	3	25	60.0%	5.0
De'Vion Moore	RB	3	13	100.0%	4.3
Kendial Lawrence	RB	2	42	100.0%	21.0
Brandon Gerau	WR	2	19	66.7%	6.3
T.J. Moe	WR	2	8	40.0%	1.6
Gilbert Moye	RB	1	5	50.0%	2.5
TOTAL	ALL	260	3,405	63.9%	8.4

And here's where we find out just how amazing Danario Alexander has been this season (as if there were any doubt). Looking only at receivers who were targeted at least ten times in a given season, Alexander's 11.3 per-target average is topped only by ... 2006 Danario Alexander, who was targeted only 21 times. For ~~Domino Axelrod~~ Danario to be both this reliable and this explosive has just been amazing.

Here are the overall averages per position:

WR: 67.3% catch rate, 8.7 yards per target
TE: 77.2% catch rate, 8.2 yards per target
RB: 75.0% catch rate, 5.5 yards per target

So for the last four seasons, here are your top ten in terms of Yards Per Target (with a minimum of ten targets):

Danario Alexander (2006): 12.0 per target (on 21 targets)
Danario Alexander (2009): 11.3 (145)
Will Franklin (2006): 10.0 (83)
Chase Coffman (2008): 9.7 (102)
Jeremy Maclin (2007): 9.5 (111)
Jared Perry (2008): 9.5 (60)
Jeremy Maclin (2008): 9.3 (135)
Will Franklin (2007): 9.3 (76)
Tommy Saunders (2008): 9.1 (92)
Danario Alexander (2007): 8.7 (48)

Will Franklin, you are absolved.

Danario Alexander, you officially have a case for having been the best receiver in Mizzou history.

Targets and Catches (Part One)

Bill C. — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

One of the measures I am looking to track more in-depth in the future, in terms of my play-by-play data, is the notion of catches versus targets. In the play-by-play data exists a line that I have yet allowed to go unrecorded: "Pass incomplete to _____." Obviously I record that the pass is incomplete, but I have not really paid attention to who the pass was intended for. It's a rather objective measure -- does everybody record who a pass was intended for the same way? If the QB is throwing the ball away and it goes 20 feet over a certain receiver's head, does it count as an incompletion "to" that receiver? Does every score-keeper even keep track of this? Plus, if a ball is tipped by a receiver and intercepted (e.g. Jerrell Jackson in the Oklahoma State game), the "intended for" bit isn't recorded. Clearly this is a piece of data that is rather inconsistent.

That said, this is also one of those measures where you figure that the inconsistencies balance out over time. Even if it doesn't paint a perfect picture, it probably tells an interesting story. Therefore, let's take a look at how our view of a receiver's (or quarterback's) performance changes when adding in "intended for" data.

The categories below are:

Catches: receptions
Targets: receptions + incomplete passes intended for that receiver (as recorded in the play-by-play data). In general, you can think of those incomplete passes as either being a) dropped or b) too well-covered to be completed. If your QB is accurate, you will obviously catch more of your targeted passes, but if you struggle to get open and clear space from the guy covering you, a lot more of your targeted passes are going to fall incomplete.
Catch%: the percentage of "targets" a receiver catches
Target%: the percentage of a team's overall targets aimed at a specific receiver

Without further ado, let's take a look at the last four years of Mizzou "target" data and see what it tells us.

2006

Image via Phoebe Sexton / Columbia Missourian

2006 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Chase Coffman	58	89	65.2%	20.2%
Will Franklin	48	83	57.8%	18.8%
Martin Rucker	53	68	77.9%	15.4%
Jared Perry	37	55	67.3%	12.5%
Brad Ekwerekwu	32	50	64.0%	11.3%
Tommy Saunders	25	34	73.5%	7.7%
Danario Alexander	15	21	71.4%	4.8%
Jason Ray	6	15	40.0%	3.4%
Tony Temple	6	7	85.7%	1.6%
Greg Bracey	3	6	50.0%	1.4%
Marcus Woods	2	5	40.0%	1.1%
Earl Goldsmith	5	5	100.0%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
Andrew Hoskins	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	291	441	66.0%	100.0%

WRs: 60.1% of targets
TEs: 35.6%
RBs: 4.3%

Before looking at ensuing seasons, it is hard to get a grasp on what these numbers actually mean, but a couple of things should stick out pretty quickly. First, thanks to a midseason bout with the dropsies, Chase Coffman's numbers were only decent, not great. Martin Rucker was a rather automatic target at TE, but Coffman wasn't amazing. Meanwhile, if your #1 WR is only catching 58% of the passes thrown at him, that is going to do a number on your completion percentage.

Anyway, before we try to interpret this too much, let's take a look at how 2007 unfolded.

2007

Image via ESPN.com

2007 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	80	111	72.1%	20.6%
Martin Rucker	84	108	77.8%	20.1%
Will Franklin	49	76	64.5%	14.1%
Chase Coffman	52	65	80.0%	12.1%
Tommy Saunders	41	55	74.5%	10.2%
Danario Alexander	37	48	77.1%	8.9%
Jared Perry	13	20	65.0%	3.7%
Derrick Washington	10	14	71.4%	2.6%
Jason Ray	8	10	80.0%	1.9%
Greg Bracey	3	9	33.3%	1.7%
Tony Temple	7	9	77.8%	1.7%
Earl Goldsmith	4	6	66.7%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	6	6	100.0%	1.1%
Blake May	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	394	538	73.2%	100.0%

WRs: 63.9% of targets
TEs: 32.2%
RBs: 3.9%

Despite a deep, experienced cast of receivers (Rucker and Franklin were seniors, Coffman and Saunders were juniors), Jeremy Maclin came out of nowhere to become Chase Daniel's most trusted receiver. His 72% Catch% was much higher than Will Franklin's 58% from the season before. Meanwhile, MotherRucker stayed right around 78% while Chase Coffman improved dramatically, from 65% to 80%. Franklin did improve to 65%, but he was still a far less reliable target than others around him. Of course, he obviously ran deeper routes than guys like Coffman, Rucker or Saunders, so that might have something to do with it. Then again, were his routes any different than those of Maclin? Maclin still outshone him in that regard.

With Maclin and an extra year of experience for Chase Daniel, the overall Catch% rose from 66% to 73% in 2007. This, of course, tells us nothing about how many passes Daniel chose to throw away (which would just go in the play-by-play as "pass incomplete" with no "intended for" information), but it does show that Daniel was completing one more pass for roughly every 14 catchable balls in 2007, and that could make a difference of 2-3 completions per game.

2008

Image via Chris Lee / Post-Dispatch

2008 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Jeremy Maclin	102	135	75.6%	25.5%
Chase Coffman	90	102	88.2%	19.2%
Tommy Saunders	72	92	78.3%	17.4%
Jared Perry	41	60	68.3%	11.3%
Danario Alexander	26	43	60.5%	8.1%
Derrick Washington	29	38	76.3%	7.2%
Andrew Jones	20	24	83.3%	4.5%
Jerrell Jackson	9	13	69.2%	2.5%
Michael Egnew	4	8	50.0%	1.5%
Earl Goldsmith	5	6	83.3%	1.1%
Jimmy Jackson	3	4	75.0%	0.8%
Wes Kemp	1	2	50.0%	0.4%
Jon Gissinger	1	1	100.0%	0.2%
Brandon Gerau	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
Forrest Shock	0	1	0.0%	0.2%
TOTAL	403	530	76.0%	100.0%

WRs: 66.6% of targets
TEs: 25.5%
RBs: 7.9%

In 2008, Missouri lost Martin Rucker and his 78% catch rate but still improved as a team, from 73% to 76%. Danario Alexander aside (this was the year he was recovering from knee injuries and was clearly not as confident/aggressive a receiver), just about everybody showed improvement. Coffman improved to a sickening 88% (that means that eight of every nine balls that were thrown at him and were even remotely catchable, were caught...yeah, he deserved the Mackey Award), Saunders improved to 78%, which is the highest you'll see from a highly-targeted receiver, and even Maclin improved to 76%. Having a ton of reps with the same quarterback helped a ton, I'm sure, as did the fact that said quarterback (Daniel) was as automatic as a computer in his reads, especially over the first half of the season.

So what happens when you lose your quarterback and your top three targets? As shocking as it may sound, your numbers go down!

2009

Image via the one, the only Bill Carter

2009 Targets and Catches
Name	Catches	Targets	Catch%	Target%
Danario Alexander	107	145	73.8%	35.6%
Jared Perry	46	86	53.5%	21.1%
Jerrell Jackson	37	61	60.7%	15.0%
Wes Kemp	23	44	52.3%	10.8%
Derrick Washington	23	33	69.7%	8.1%
Andrew Jones	7	12	58.3%	2.9%
Rolandis Woodland	4	6	66.7%	1.5%
Michael Egnew	3	5	60.0%	1.2%
T.J. Moe	2	5	40.0%	1.2%
De'Vion Moore	3	3	100.0%	0.7%
Brandon Gerau	2	3	66.7%	0.7%
Kendial Lawrence	2	2	100.0%	0.5%
Gilbert Moye	1	2	50.0%	0.5%
TOTAL	260	407	63.9%	100.0%

WRs: 86.0% of targets
TEs: 4.2%
RBs: 9.8%

So here's where I start to get encouraged about Blaine Gabbert's prospects moving forward. With a relatively similar cast of characters in the receiving corps (Alexander was clearly better than any receiver in 2006, but Gabbert was without anyone nearing the reliability of Rucker, so they cancel out) and the propensity for throwing many more deep balls than Daniel, the Catch% for Gabbert's sophomore season was almost identical to Daniel's.

Now, unless one of our redshirting freshmen is suddenly capable of pulling a Jeremy Maclin impersonation (doubtful, to say the very least), Gabbert will head into 2010 without his top two targets, which is obviously something Daniel didn't have to worry about heading into 2007. However, while losing Alexander is a huge concern, losing Perry simply might not be too big a deal. Jackson has done a lovely Perry impersonation in recent weeks, and besides, Perry's 54% catch rate is simply horrendous. We know that Perry had a decent amount of bad luck this season -- how many times did Gabbert throw too high for him in the Oklahoma State game? -- but 54% is too low to blame simply on bad luck. Over four seasons, Perry never topped 70%, and while Jackson's 61% is nothing impressive, it is still better than what Perry managed this season. With another year (at least) of getting used to catching Gabbert's fastballs (and another year of Gabbert learning to keep the ball down as much as possible), I would expect Jackson's catch rate to be closer to the 65-70% range next year.

However, is that good enough? Gabbert can be expected to improve a decent amount next year, but ... who becomes the #1 target? And if it's Jackson, can Mizzou succeed at a high level with a #1 WR target catching only 65-70%, especially when there is suddenly no ultra-reliable tight end option to fall back on in times where a completion absolutely must be made?

Speaking of the tight end position, I guess this is the year in which we officially learned that WRs and TEs are basically exactly the same in this system. Alexander's Target% of 35% this year was 10% higher than Maclin ever managed and came within 10% of matching that of Maclin and Coffman from 2008. Lining up in the tight end slot position quite often, Alexander was actually able to approximately compensate for the loss of both players this year and catch passes at a very high rate for a receiver. Meanwhile, thanks to Alexander being a WR, tight ends accounted for only 4% of targets this year, and that's only if you count Michael Egnew as a tight end. The position disappeared from Mizzou's repertoire, but the passing numbers stayed relatively successful thanks to Alexander. With Alexander gone in 2010, do we see guys like Andrew Jones or Egnew working their way back into Gabbert's sights, or will another big receiver like Wes Kemp move into that role?

I have a lot more questions here than answers, but answers weren't the purpose of this exercise. I wanted to see if target data was viable and interesting, and while I found it both of those things, I'm curious what you think.

Another Thanksgiving Special with RPT

RPT — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:08:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

It's been quite a year since last Thanksgiving. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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It's unequivocally my favorite holiday of the year, and it's one where I'd like to take this opportunity to wish every single RMN reader a happy, healthy and prosperous Thanksgiving. In the spirit of giving thanks and in keeping with a tradition I started last year, here's a list of things I'm thankful for, dating back to last Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for...

... perspective after tryptophan lured the Missouri secondary to sleep at Arrowhead last year. That is what happened, right?

... BCS chaos.

... special visitors to preview the Big 12 Championship.

... Tommy Saunders. Love that kid.

... Mizzou basketball STOMPING Cal, giving us our first true look ahead

... Jeremy Cheat Code Maclin and Chase Thrust Nunchuck Upward Coffman being named Walter Camp All-Americans (and a Mackey Award for Coffman)

... a depressing Mizzou/Illinois Braggin' Rights game, if only because it gave us the unhaunted Lou Brown thread and the funniest picture ever posted in the Mizzou Links

... the chance to send off the senior class with a victory in San Antonio, meaning 30 wins in three years. Yes, I'll always remember the Alamo....... Bowl.

... being where 2008 happened.

... Keith freakin' Ramsey down in Athens.

... Beef waxing poetic.

... proof that football season never really ends at RMN.

... the career of Jeremy Maclin and the tears that rolled down his face upon leaving Mizzou.

... the introduction of the RMN Wall of Excellence.

... being able to go back and laugh at the Mike Anderson vs. Doc Sadler hysteria.

... Mizzou basketball's blitzing turned laugher turned nailbiter in Stillwater.

... the state of Mizzou basketball.

... the much beleaguered Leo Lyons returning from his ticket-related benching to put in 30 as Mizzou pulled away from Baylor at home in front of the best non-Kansas crowd in Mizzou Arena history at that point.

... incredible tributes to Jeffrey Crawford, a close friend of many here at RMN.

... Sheldon Richardson putting on the Mizzou hat, even if he didn't qualify.

... Zaire dropping a shot at Flan Arena in Austin, giving Texan RMNers the chance to taste the tears of unfathomable sadness.

... the inaugural induction class into the RMN Wall of Excellence.

... "ZAIIIIIIIIIIRE TAYLOR!!!........... TIGERS WIN! TIGERS WIN!" A great win in front of a great crowd with a great Live Thread and great postgame reaction.

... the then almost-implausible realization that Mizzou controlled its Big 12 destiny in late February.

... statistical revenge on K-State. No longer was Mizzou the Hans Moleman to KSU's football.

... the chance to sit courtside at Allen Fieldhouse for one of the most incredible sporting atmospheres I've ever seen, even though we won't discuss the actual game.

... an incredible (and emotional) senior night for Mizzou basketball against Oklahoma to go undefeated at Mizzou Arena. Quoth Jeff Capel: "Not many people have (pause), hell, no one has come here and won."

... not having to care about MU's loss to Texas A&M.

... everything that led up to this, as well as the incredible time I had in Oklahoma City covering that team for three of the longest but most rewarding days of my life.

... MU's tournament berth giving birth to Better Know an Opponent.

... Mark Ellis: National Friggin' Champion. March was a REALLY busy month for Asian Kid.

... Kim English and ONIONS against Marquette. That, and Buzz Williams still whining. Over the line, mark it zero.

... the best post Bill has ever written, leading into the Memphis game.

... the moment that perhaps gives Armageddon a run as the best moment in RMN's existence, Mizzou's win over Memphis in the Sweet Sixteen. Naturally, there's a GIF party, a podcast, and a Hello World stats piece. In a related note, DENMON, OH MY.

... realizing how long this post is without even finishing basketball season.

... the Thank You thread once the magic finally ended.

... Mike Anderson becoming a true True Son.

... one of the best Paint jobs of the year regarding the Meme Madness controversy.

... hosting The Closers with our boy Sleepy.

... the passing of the torch.

... a plea to redraw the Big 12 football schedules.

... the Black and Gold game for giving us Special Forces and General Mills.

... Mizzou's greatest NFL Draft.

... a Big 12 and NCAA Regional Championship for Mizzou softball.

... and, oh yeah, FREAKIN' RUN RULING UCLA in the Super Regional.

... the return of ZouDave's videos.

... second place at the Big 12 Championship and yet another regional appearance for Mizzou baseball.

... a long summer. OK, maybe I'm not thankful for that.

... JYD to Memphis in the NBA Draft.

... finding the greatest wins in Mizzou football history.

... finding out that we've got ourselves a quarterback.

... hearing Zaire Taylor drop a Hustle and Flow RMN reference on TV.

... greatness, as told by Kim English.

... Joe Tessitore constantly mispronouncing "Danario," giving birth to the "Domino Axelrod" meme.

... a pure football rivalry and a storm/power outages giving us one of the most surreal football atmospheres I've ever seen in my life, loss be damned.

... SkyCam.

... a fantastic trip to see a fantastic Mizzou win in Manhattan.

... Tony the recruit becoming Tony the Tiger.

... Michael Atchison's ability to perfectly summate Mizzou basketball in prose.

... Spooooooon and 'Nario.

... yet another fantastic year for Rock M Nation. Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the feast:

Mizzou Links, 11-24-09

Bill C. — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:52:02 -0000

Via PowerMizzou

Media Day

MUtigers.com: Mizzou Meets the Press
PowerMizzou: PMTV: It's Kansas Week
PowerMizzou: Audio: Pinkel, Mangino talk Border War

BEAST MODE!!!

MUtigers.com: Mizzou, Nike Unveil "Beast Mode" Uniform
PowerMizzou: Tigers unveil new uniforms
KC Star: The Blue and the Gray of New Mizzou Unis
The Missourian: Missouri football team set to make fashion statement vs. KU

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Week 5

RPT — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 14:15:10 -0000

More photos » by Rod Aydelotte - AP

2 months ago: Baylor sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin is examined after sustaining a torn ACL in his right knee during an NCAA college football game against Northwestern State on Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Waco Texas. Griffin is out for the year. (AP Photo/Waco Tribune Herald, Rod Aydelotte)

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This is the fifth installment of the 2009 edition of the SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable. Rock M Nation is once again serving as hosts, and as such, we will have a recap post of the different responses around SBN later in the week.

On to the questions!

1. Is it time for the Big 12 to collectively pour one out for the departure of Baylor quarterback Robert "Hot Tub" Griffin? Even if your team benefits from his injury, are you sad to see one of the conference's premier playmakers done for the season?

Indeed it is time to pour one out for ol' Hot Tub, and indeed we did just that. I find it amusing how much the rest of the conference has enjoyed Baylor's ascent to relevancy. It seemed like nearly every fan base respected Baylor as a threat and expected them to beat some good teams, but no one expected them to beat their team.

There's no doubt that every team on Baylor's schedule just got a huge boost with the departure of Griffin, but from a pure spectator standpoint, it's incredibly sad to see him go. I won't miss him too terribly much when the Bears come to Faurot Field, but his presence added real intrigue to any game Baylor was scheduled to play. The rest of the season should be a litmus test for how Art Briles can perform without the central compelling character of his offensive attack.

2. Play the role of Mythbusters for us. If you could dispel one national perception of your team, what would it be?

We pick up where we last left off: the pass defense.

Most Missouri fans are actually on the same page about the pass defense this year, as it has seemed to pass the eye test with relative ease. But to national media and other fans who only get a look at the box scores, I can understand why given Missouri's recent history, the pass defense numbers might be a concern. Missouri sits at No. 68 in the country and No. 8 in the Big 12 in passing yardage allowed, surrendering 218.0 yards per game. To make matters worse in the eyes of the beholders, the yardage was surrendered to Illinois (No. 110 in passing yardage), Nevada (No. 86) and an FCS team in Furman.

Perhaps the most telling stat I have (because I'm sure Bill can tell us a lot more about this with his metrics) is that the Missouri defense has surrendered 872 yards through the air, 416 of which have come with Missouri leading by 15 points or more. That's 47.7 percent of opponent's passing yardage that's come with the opponent in desperation and Missouri content to just keep everything in front of them.

3. Give us the name of one player on each side of the ball on your team that everyone else in the conference may not know about or fully appreciate.

Lord knows Blaine Gabbert is getting his due from within the Big 12, as is Danario Alexander after his explosion against Nevada. Derrick Washington had been one of the more underappreciated backs in the conference, but he has (in conjunction with the offensive line) done little to justify our claims of underappreciation. The award should probably be split between Wes Kemp and Kendial Lawrence. In four games, Kemp has done nothing outstanding but has done almost everything well. He's become a very solid contributor that's part Tommy Saunders, part Justin Gage. As for Lawrence, his numbers aren't that impressive, but the way he's contributed has caused some Missouri fans to wonder if he's actually the best back on the team right now. For the sake of brevity, I won't get into those claims right now.

Defensively, you can make a case for Aldon Smith, but I'll give the nod to my boy Will Ebner. Ebner's developing a bit of a cult following for his big hitting style of play, a cult that I admittedly tried to start last season. Luke Lambert has been a solid starter at middle linebacker for Missouri throughout his career, and its a testament to Ebner that not only has there been no dropoff, but there's arguably been improvement.

4. OU vs. Da U: Who ya' got?

Give me Oklahoma. I know the competition hasn't been top notch, but the Sooner offense seems to have gotten its act together since Week 1. Furthermore, Miami wunderkind Jacory Harris got a dose of reality last week when the speed and aggressiveness of Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech completely threw Harris and the Miami offense off rhythm. The bad news for Miami is that Oklahoma has that same kind of speed, a better defensive line, and a respected defensive mind in Brent Venables.

5. Give us your Offensive Player of the Week, Defensive Player of the Week, and Storyline of the Week for last week.

Offensive Player of the Week: Much love to Alexander Robinson, who I've nominated for Offensive Player of the Week in this forum before, but this week's nod goes to another Alexander. Danario Alexander was incredible in Missouri's win against Nevada, compiling nine receptions for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Alexander's previous career game came against Kansas at Armageddon in 2007, but in that game he was more solid than explosive. We're starting to see the explosive Danario we all heard about before injuries derailed his career.

Defensive Player of the Week: I don't have any issues with Earl Thomas taking home the conference's award, but I'll give my vote to Kansas defensive back Chris Harris, who had two tackles for loss scattered amongst his 15 total tackles, an absurd number for a member of the secondary. Kansas needed every one of those tackles, too, to fight off Southern Miss.

Storyline of the Week: It's a tie between two storylines in the Big 12 South. The Twittergate fallout from Texas Tech's loss to Houston and the injury of Griffin at Baylor are the two dominant storylines that emerged from last week.

6. Power Poll! Rank the teams 1-12 based on who would win on a neutral field.

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Nebraska
4. Missouri
5. Oklahoma State
6. Kansas
7. Texas Tech
8. Texas A&M
9. Iowa State
10. Baylor
11. Kansas State
12. Colorado

Mizzou Links, 8-26-09

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:44:26 -0000

Practice Reports!!

The Trib: Tuesday Practice Report
Jared Perry's work with the No. 2 offense was short-lived. Pinkel confirmed that the senior receiver is back as the starter at the X-receiver position. Pinkel was asked if Perry is back in the coach's good graces.
"He just earned his job back," Pinkel said. "He's always in good graces; I love the kid. But you've got to play well and be consistent. I think we're catching the ball a little more consistent, but not as consistent as we need to be."
PowerMizzou: Back to Practice
T.J. Moe worked an awful lot with the punt returners. I still don't see how Moe can be ready for Illinois, but I do think he'll play this season.
Mutigers.com: Mizzou Returns to Practice Field
The Tiger tailbacks had some nice runs as well, with Derrick Washington picking up several first downs, including a sweep right that he took home for a four-yard touchdown to cap a redzone series against the number two defense. De’Vion Moore was also seen breaking off some tough runs, as he had several carries that went for between 8-12 yards each. Freshman TB Kendial Lawrence had a big run late in the scrimmaging against the number two defense, going for about 20 yards before junior S Jarrell Harrison came up to lay the hit of the practice on him. Lawrence was knocked backward with the big shot, but he secured the ball the whole time.
KC Star (Campus Corner): Hoch Could Return for MU by Weekend
PowerMizzou: Camp Breakdown

Another quick word about PowerMizzou: they rolled out a new recruiting database yesterday, and it. is. awesome.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

Rams will not invite AFL return man to camp

VanRam — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 20:44:56 -0000

Earlier today we reported that the St. Louis Rams tried out AFL cornerback and return man Terrance Sanders for potential invite to training camp and a shot at competing for return duties with the Rams. And the results are in...

Sanders will not get an invitation to camp, but he will remain on a "ready list" comprised of players who could be available in case injuries decimate the current roster.

Also trying out with Sanders today was Saunders...wha? Tommy Saunders, the former Mizzou wide receiver. Like Sanders, Saunders will be added to the "ready list."

The battle for kick and punt returning jobs is shaping up to be an interesting subplot to this year's training camp.

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the Nevada offense, and signs pointed to a pretty stout unit, moving from stout to dangerous if a big-time receiving threat emerges. Today we'll look at the defense--can they make the stops necessary to get Nevada a big win over a BCS school?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 101.8 (#61)
Success Rate+: 115.2 (#15)
PPP+: 89.3 (#88)

Standard Downs S&P+: 101.1 (#57)
Passing Downs S&P+: 95.1 (#78)

Redzone S&P+: 99.7 (#61)

Q1 S&P+: 103.6 (#49)
Q2 S&P+: 105.63 (#51)
Q3 S&P+: 95.7 (#73)
Q4 S&P+: 98.8 (#62)

1st Down S&P+: 97.7 (#70)
2nd Down S&P+: 105.1 (#47)
3rd Down S&P+: 96.4 (#71)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 106.9 (#45)
Rushing SR+: 124.5 (#7)
Rushing PPP+: 89.2 (#89)

Standard Downs: 120.9 (#17)
Passing Downs: 94.0 (#71)

Redzone: 124.2 (#17)

Line Yards+: 125.3 (#7)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 99.2 (#63)
Passing SR+: 109.8 (#26)
Passing PPP+: 89.7 (#82)

Standard Downs: 91.7 (#88)
Passing Downs: 95.9 (#74)

Redzone: 89.8 (#83)

Adj. Sack Rate: 6.5% (#45)

It doesn't take long to decipher what the strengths and weaknesses of the Nevada defense were in 2008. Good success rates suggest lots of stops near the line of scrimmage, which suggests strong line play. Poor Points Per Play (PPP) rates suggest lots of big plays given up, which suggests poor "last line of defense" play in the secondary. The Wolfpack defense was strikingly good in terms of efficiency (success rates) and strikingly bad limiting offenses' explosiveness (PPP). Few teams have wider splits than UNR's #15 overall Success Rate+ ranking and #88 overall PPP+ ranking, and it carried over to rushing and passing stats as well.

If Nevada wants to break into the big-time, they must limit the big play better than they did in 2008. I mean, just think about how many long plays came out of the Missouri-Nevada game. They allowed eleven plays of 19 yards or more.

Derrick Washington 59-yard TD run
Jeremy Maclin 80-yard TD reception
Jared Perry 27-yard TD reception
Chase Coffman 22-yard reception
Jared Perry 33-yard reception
Jeremy Maclin 49-yard TD reception
Tommy Saunders 29-yard reception
Chase Coffman 32-yard TD reception
Tommy Saunders 24-yard reception
Chase Coffman 48-yard reception
De'Vion Moore 19-yard run

There is a strong core of talent in this defense, but most of it resides in the defensive line, and potentially the front seven. The LB corps is inexperienced but aggressive, and the secondary, while experienced, needs to improve at preventing a 15-yard play from turning into a 50-yard play.

Defensive Line

Basped was a beast in 2008, with 18.5 tackles for loss. His DL mate Dontay Mach added another 17.5.

2008 Unit Ranking: #30 in the nation (#2 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Kevin Basped (6'6, 240, Jr.)
DE Dontay Mach (6'1, 245, Jr.)
DT Nate Agaiava (6'2, 285, Sr.)
DT Chris Slack (6'5, 270, Sr.)
DT Mike Andrews (6'3, 275, So.)
DE Daniel Agaiava (6'3, 275, Sr.)
DE Ryan Coulson (6'3, 255, Jr.)
DT Zack Madonick (6'1, 285, So.)

In Missouri's first rush of last year's Nevada game, Derrick Washington went for 59 yards and a touchdown. The rest of the game, Mizzou RBs carried the ball 20 times...for 59 yards. The stats were skewed because of D-Wash's gorgeous early run, but Nevada held Mizzou to a 31% rushing success rate for the game*, and I'll be honest: for 2009, alarms start sounding in my head anytime I think of the Mizzou rushing attack grounding to a halt and the Tigers having to rely on Blaine Gabbert and the passing game. Now, make no mistake: I'm not saying I think Gabbert can't throw for a ton of yards this year and have himself a strong sophomore season--what I'm saying is, the threat of the run needs to be there. Without it, the pressure mounts on young #11. This will be BG's first true road game, and it'll come on national television on a Friday night. Missouri needs to run well, and honestly it's not certain that they'll be able to here.

* It should be noted that Washington was not 100%--he suffered a minor injury in the SEMO game the week before. But still...Nevada shut the Mizzou running game down after carry #1.

To say the defensive line is the strength of the Nevada defense is a major understatement. As sophomores, ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Mach combined for 36 tackles for loss and 21.5 sacks last year. They both return, as do backups Daniel Agaiava and Ryan Coulson, who combined for another three TFLs in limited time. Now, it should be noted that Nevada registered no sacks on Chase Daniel last year, not even a QB hurry. Basped did manage 1.5 TFLs, but Chase Daniel was not touched all game, and while Daniel and his senior pocket presence are gone in 2009, the Mizzou offensive line should be as good or better.

Linebackers

James-Michael Johnson is UNR's only returning LB starter.

2008 Unit Ranking: #65 in the nation (#4 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
James-Michael Johnson (6'2, 220, So.)
Brandon Marshall (6'1, 230, So.)
Mike Bethea (6'3, 245, Sr.)
Kevin Grimes (6'0, 190, Jr.)
Jared Silva-Purcell (5'11, 220, Jr.)
Adam Liranzo (6'4, 220, Jr.)

In Nevada's attacking defense, James-Michael Johnson was relatively all-or-nothing. As a redshirt freshman last year, Johnson made 48 tackles...12.5 of which went for a loss, a pretty insanely high big-play rate there. He is now the anchor of the LB corps, so he will have to pretty consistently make plays of all kinds--both big plays and preventative ones. Gone is rock solid Jonathan Mauga, and into the starting lineup (probably) move Brandon Marshall (8.5 of 33 tackles went for loss, another high %) and big Mike Bethea. Looking at the stats, you pretty quickly see that Nevada's LBs play quite close to the line of scrimmage, which is great for defending the run...and not so much defending the pass. It puts a lot of pressure on the secondary, and in 2008, the secondary didn't respond too well. What about 2009?

Secondary

Jonathon Amaya had four interceptions in 2008.

2008 Unit Ranking: #72 in the nation (#3 in the WAC)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Antoine Thompson (6'1, 195, Sr.)
S Jonathon Amaya (6'2, 190, Sr.)
CB Isaiah Frey (6'0, 190, So.)
S Mo Harvey (6'3, 210, Sr.)
S Cameron Bayne (6'1, 180, Sr.)
CB Thaddeus Brown (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
S Marlon Johnson (5'11, 185, RSFr.)
CB Khalid Wooten (6'0, 195, RSFr.)

The good news for Nevada is, their safeties are ball hawks. Jonathon Amaya had four picks in 2008, and Mo Harvey added three from a backup role. The bad news is, as I've already repeatedly mentioned, when they didn't make the big play, they were giving up one. Amaya and #1 CB Antoine Thompson are both seniors, as are Harvey and likely backup CB Cameron Bayne. There is experience here, but pressure will be on sophomore Isaiah Frey and a batch of redshirt freshmen trying to break their way into the rotation. Nevada clearly wants to attack with their front seven, meaning they need skill, smarts and speed from the secondary (but really, who doesn't?). Their smarts will improve with experience, but...speed? They apparently need some.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #78 Net Punting, #65 Punt Returns, #64 Kick Returns

Projected Starters
K Ricky Drake (6'0, 190, Jr.)
P Brad Langley (6'0, 200, Sr.) - 34.5 net in 2008
KR Brandon Fragger (5'9, 195, Sr.) - 18.2 avg in 2008
PR Antoine Thompson (6'1, 195, Sr.) - 4.9 avg in 2008

Missouri has its own replacements to make in the special teams unit, but they might have an opportunity to win the field position battle against a Nevada unit that is a combination of mediocre and inexperienced. Brad Langley's a decent punter, but they don't return a dangerous return man (though one might materialize, I guess), and they'll feature a new kicker, who might or might not be good (you never really know in advance). In a game full of interesting matchups--Nevada seemingly having the advantage on the ground, Missouri in the air--things could swing on special teams play, and neither unit has a distinct advantage here.

Summary

The nightmare scenario for Missouri is pretty easy to put together. With Nevada's front seven close to the line of scrimmage, Derrick Washington doesn't find much running room, and Nevada forces Mizzou into quite a few passing downs, where their rush ends harass Blaine Gabbert and force rushed throws...picked off by Nevada's ball-hawking safeties. That's really the formula Nevada will try to follow all year, and they should succeed at it more often than not. Last year, Missouri compensated for this in front of a home crowd by going deep early and often.

It's encouraging to be reminded of how well Jared Perry played against them last year, but while Blaine Gabbert has a stronger arm than Chase Daniel, he won't have Jeremy Maclin burning down the sidelines this year. If Danario Alexander is 100% healthy (I think we should probably take an "It could happen, but let's not completely count on it until it does" approach), and if Jerrell Jackson continues to develop, the deep ball might be Missouri's best friend again in Reno. But it wouldn't surprise me if Mizzou goes to the horizontal passing game a lot. Guys like Jackson and Perry are agile enough to pick up 5-7 yards a pop that way, and stretching the field out like that could a) make Nevada react instead of attack, and b) open up the middle for D-Wash. But then again, I'm not a coach, so we'll see what happens.

While Illinois is probably the most purely talented team Missouri will face in non-conference play, it appears that Nevada matches up better thanks to the running game. An experienced backfield and offensive line could take advantage of a talented-but-green Missouri front four; meanwhile, Nevada might be able to make Missouri one-dimensional on offense, leveraging them into passing downs...never a positive thing with a young QB in his first road game. If Missouri and Nevada played ten times, I'd still pick Missouri to win more often than they lose, but this is a one-time-only thing, and if Missouri's flat, or if Nevada starts strong (remember, their offense got better with each progressing quarter in 2008), Missouri's in trouble.

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Projections on Friday.

SB Nation - Tommy Saunders

Targets and Catches (Part Two, a.k.a. Will Franklin's Redemption)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Targets and Catches (Part One)

2006

2007

2008

2009

Another Thanksgiving Special with RPT

Mizzou Links, 11-24-09

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Week 5

Mizzou Links, 8-26-09

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

Offense (returning starters: 5)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Special Teams

Key losses

Season Forecast

Predicted order of finish

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

Rams will not invite AFL return man to camp

Nevada: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary