SB Nation - Jeff Wolfert

Hawk Talk: Border War Tailgate Edition

Denverjhawk — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 12:00:13 -0000

News and Notes from the week that was leading up to this weekends matchup...

Sorry, no links this week. Fortunately or unfortunately depending on how you look at it, this was actually written Tuesday night due to my impending travel schedule and not being too certain when I might find myself in front of a computer over the next week. So, that in mind...if I say anything that turns out to sound ridiculous it's not my fault.

Denver's Take...

What to expect, what to think. That's been the question for weeks now but despite the problems over the past two weeks I kind of get the feeling that I know what we are going to get from the Jayhawks this weekend.

This is a team that was divided for the better part of the conference season. Regardless of what's happening with the current situation I truly believe that they are realizing that this is about them and their chances at a bowl. Their opportunity to salvage this season and their opportunity to play another day.

These Jayhawks are motivated. Whether that is going to be enough to overcome all the distractions, I don't know. What I do know is like we saw against Texas this team will put forth the effort and chances are it will show even more since this is Missouri.

Rock Chalk and see you at Arrowhead.

More Notes and Things to Look for After the Jump...

This Week's Game

KU-MU SERIES -- The nation's second most played rivalry resumes Saturday when Kansas and Missouri meet for the 118th time in a series which dates back to 1891. The only FBS series which has been
played more times is Minnesota and Wisconsin (119 games). The teams have met 90 consecutive years (from 1919-present) for the nation's 12th-longest uninterrupted series. The teams have met every year beginning with the 1891 matchup with the exception of 1918, when Kansas had its season shortened due to a campus wide influenza outbreak. Kansas leads the all-time series 55-53-9 and has won four of the last six meetings, including last year's thrilling 40-37 victory. Kansas Head Coach Mark Mangino is 4-3 against Missouri since taking over the Jayhawk program in 2002.

KU-MU LAST YEAR -- Todd Reesing hit Kerry Meier on a 26-yard touchdown pass with 27 seconds remaining as Kansas upset No. 12 Missouri 40-37 in a thrilling Border Showdown game on a sleeting, snowing Arrowhead Stadium on Nov. 29. MU kicker Jeff Wolfert, who had made a 48-yard field goal earlier, had his 54-yard game-tying field goal attempt blocked by Phillip Strozier to end the game. After four lead changes in the final seven minutes, Reesing engineered two fourth-quarter touchdown drives with Meier catching both go-ahead scores. Reesing was 37 of 51 for 375 yards and four touchdowns on the day. Meier established a then school record 14 catches for 106 yards. KU S Darrell Stuckey forced three MU turnovers (two interceptions and a forced fumble which he recovered). With KU leading 26-10 early in the third quarter, MU scored 20 straight points to take a 30-26 lead with 6:52 left. After a 40-yard kickoff return by Dezmon Briscoe, Reesing and company went to work going 49 yards in five plays for the score to go ahead 33-30 with 4:26 to play. MU responded when Derrick Washington scored on a six-yard run capping a seven-play, 73-yard drive to make the score 37-33 in favor of the Tigers with 1:50 to play. Reesing then engineered the game-winning drive, going 67 yards in nine plays, five of which were connections to Meier.

THINGS TO LOOK FOR AGAINST MISSOURI:

RB Jake Sharp (2,210) needs 36 rushing yards for ninth and 39 for eighth on the KU career list.
WR Dezmon Briscoe (2,998) needs just two receiving yards for 3,000 in his career and become just the eighth player in Big 12 history to reach that mark.
Briscoe has caught at least four passes in 14 consecutive games and at least two in 29 straight.
Briscoe (1,095) needs 50 receiving yards for the second best season in school history (he holds mark with 1,407 set last year).
Briscoe (six) needs one 100-yard receiving game to tie his school record of seven set last year.
WR Kerry Meier (2,255) needs 12 receiving yards to pass Willie Vaughn (2,266) for second on the KU career receiving yardage list behind only Dezmon Briscoe (2,998 entering Saturday).
Meier (92) needs six receptions to break his own school record for single-season receptions of 97 set last year.
Meier (16) needs one touchdown reception to tie for second on the KU career list behind only Briscoe (29).
Meier has caught at least two passes in 32 consecutive games and at least one pass in 33 straight contests.
QB Todd Reesing (10) needs one 200-yard passing game to tie his season record of 11 set in 2008.

DID YOU KNOW? -- Kansas was just the third opponent to score 20 points against Texas this season and the first in the Longhorns' last eight games (Texas Tech scored 24 and UL-Monroe scored 20).

Mizzou 2009, Part Thirteen: Special Teams

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:00:10 -0000

And the unit-by-unit previews draw to a close...

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #16 Net Punting, #32 Punt Returns, #78 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Tanner Mills (6'2, 200, Sr.)
P Jake Harry (6'1, 195, Sr.)
KR Jasper Simmons (6'1, 205, Jr.)
PR T.J. Moe (6'0, 190, Fr.)

Missouri's 2008 special teams unit set a pretty high standard, did it not? Mizzou's best kick/punt returner, their most accurate place-kicker, and the 16th-best net punting unit in the country is a pretty damn stout unit. Clearly things are much more up in the air for 2009, and clearly there will probably be at least a slight drop-off here, but how much of one?

1. So who the hell is going to return kicks? Sounds like that answer is starting to round into shape. Based on recent practice reports, Jasper Simmons will be manning the kick return duties, while Carl Gettis will return punts...for now. I love The Carl Gettis Treatment as much as anybody, but in the smallest of small sample sizes, Gettis struggled handling kicks during the spring game, and that got me a little spooked. He'll probably be just fine, but it does sound like T.J. Moe will be getting a look here as he gets healthier, and since a) he was who I initially predicted to win the job this summer, and b) I haven't personally seen him muff any kicks (I haven't personally seen him do a damn thing, but that's besides the point), I'd be okay with that.

I must say, I'm starting to become very curious with what we're going to see from Jasper Simmons this fall. People raved about his athleticism this summer, and his play in August has confirmed the growing perception. He has apparently looked good in special teams, and he has apparently gained ground on both Hardy Ricks and Jarrell Harrison for a starting safety spot.

In the end, this unit is probably not going to duplicate both the production and the threat that Jeremy Maclin provided. Mizzou was only 78th in kickoff returns last year, but I'm willing to bet that their average starting field position was much better than 78th considering the myriad of ways that teams avoided kicking to Maclin. His killer returns bookended the season (he had a huge, momentum-turning kickoff return against Illinois in the opener and a desperately-needed punt return against Northwestern in the finale), and while we can't expect Simmons, Gettis/Moe, or whoever to replicate that, they can still make sure this unit isn't a complete weakness. We've heard a lot recently about how this Mizzou team is the fastest Gary Pinkel has had in Columbia--if that's really the case, then there should certainly be some pretty decent options in the return game...as long as they can catch and hold onto the ball, anyway.

2. Is Jake Harry looking better than he did in the spring? Seems like it. He's actually been out-kicked in both scrimmages by sophomore walk-on Matt Grabner, but obviously that doesn't tell us anything about their respective hang-time. Hang-time was a key component to Harry's success last year, as he averaged a respectable 40.7-yard average but a very good 37.7 net average. Of his 26 punts, 5 were fair-caught and 10 were downed inside the 20, meaning over half of his kicks resulted in no return, which is awesome.

Mizzou implemented the awesome righty-lefty rugby-kicking platoon in 2008, with Jeff Wolfert punting seven times when Mizzou was on or near the left hash-mark, and it's at least possible that we'll see the same thing in 2009, assuming a) Matt Grabner is deemed ready for the spotlight, and b) Grabner's actually a righty (I have no idea). Punting has taken on an extra layer of strategery over the last year or two, with the rugby kick being eased in more and more, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing continuing this year.

3. Tanner Mills is going to be the place-kicker...right? Well...maybe not. General Mills is definitely going to be the kickoff specialist, and word has it that he's going to be as good a kickoffs guy as Mizzou has ever had, but it's starting to look like maybe sophomore Grant Ressel has overtaken him on FGs and PATs. Ressel saw the field once in 2008, uncorking a lovely, high, fair-caught 43-yard punt against SEMO, and as I mentioned with Gettis above, I'm not going to pretend that I'm not swayed by tiny sample sizes. I'm relatively confident in Ressel, but it sounds like overall neither Mills, nor Ressel, nor Trey Barrow are tremendously reliable right now from outside of about 35-40 yards. All three were outstanding in the first scrimmage, and all three were downright bad in the second. It's always different when the national TV cameras are on, however, so we'll see how Ressel, if he's deemed The Man, responds in The Dome.

In all, Mizzou does seem to have at least a few special teams weapons at their disposal. Even if they're not as dangerous in the return game, and even if they are no longer almost 100% automatic on FGs of less than 40-45 yards, they could still win the special teams battle if punting and kickoffs are stellar and they're at least competent in returns and place-kicking. Field position is such a huge thing, bigger than we even think it is, and if Mizzou is averaging 37-39 net yards on a punt and kicking touchbacks half the time or better, while at least getting kick returns out to the 25-30 and not muffing punt returns, special teams will be alright. Not great, but alright. In the North, only Nebraska has a rock-solid special teams unit, so Mizzou will still be able to compete here.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

RPT — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:00:14 -0000

In conjunction with CBS Sports, the folks at The Ralphie Report are organizing the official SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Conference Preview. What follows is Rock M Nation's "outsider's" look at the 2009 Missouri Tigers, much like you'd find in many preseason magazines across the country.

Offense (returning starters: 5)

In 2009, for only the second time in school history, the Missouri Tigers will have replace their quarterback and top three pass catchers. The familiar cast of characters that pushed Missouri to the summit in the Big 12 North -- field general Chase Daniel, the electric Jeremy Maclin, the reliable Chase Coffman, and the ever steady Tommy Saunders -- are all gone. So too is offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, now the head coach at Wyoming.

But if there's reason for optimism, it's that Missouri appears ready for a new cast of playmakers. Missouri isn't quite at "reload" instead of "rebuild" stage, but the Tigers shouldn't be short of firepower. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert takes the reins of the Tiger offense. Gabbert, a 5-star recruit out of high school, is loaded with the physical skills to make NFL scouts drool, but the onus is on him to prove his rocket arm can be complemented with accuracy and good decision making. By all accounts, he's had a fantastic offseason, but true judgment won't start until the season starts, as everything changes after the first hit and the first interception.

He'll be joined in the backfield by what coach Gary Pinkel has called the best 1-2 punch he's had at tailback in his tenure at Missouri. Junior Derrick Washington returns after a 1,000-yard, 17-touchdown season rushing in 2008 despite playing on a torn meniscus for 13 of Missouri's 14 games. In addition to shouldering some of the early season burden on the ground to help Gabbert along, Washington is one of the best receiving backs in the Big 12. He'll be spelled by sophomore De'Vion Moore, a shifty back who showed his potential on a 55-yard touchdown run against Colorado in 2008. Washington and Moore help form one of the conference's better tailback tandems, and it appears they will be joined by true freshman Kendial Lawrence, who has made a big push for playing time this summer.

Missouri's anchored by an offensive line that appears to be one of the conference's best, as it is showing the fruit of Gary Pinkel's labor on the recruiting trail. Senior Kurtis Gregory will be a third-year starter at guard, a season removed from being named second team All-Big 12. Redshirt sophomore Elvis Fisher and true sophomore Dan Hoch -- who average 6'6", 310 -- should be Missouri's two tackles. Fisher outperformed expectations as a starter in 2008, and Hoch, a former 4-star recruit, became one of the first true freshmen to see playing time on the offensive line for Gary Pinkel. Tim Barnes returns to start at center. In 2008, Barnes had the unenviable task of walking into a position where Missouri had seen only three starters over the previous 12 seasons, but performed extremely well. The main question for most observers on the offensive line is guard Austin Wuebbels, who has been impressive in camp thus far.

The biggest questions are at wide receiver, where Missouri looks extremely deep but less explosive than in previous years. The receiving corps could legitimately run about nine deep. Seniors Jared Perry and Danario Alexander, despite bouts with injury and inconsistency throughout their careers, are expected to be the top two targets. In addition, Gabbert appears to have developed chemistry with sophomore Wes Kemp. Odds are that Missouri has no way of replacing the dual threat of Jeremy Maclin, but should Missouri try, sophomore Jerrell Jackson seems to have worked his way into that role. At tight end, Andrew Jones has proven to be a valuable target capable of moving the chains, and Michael Egnew's athleticism has many in the program excited.

All in all, Missouri hopes to plug and play with the names that are most likely new to the national scene. The offense falls under the direction of Dave Yost, previously the quarterbacks coach, who had as much a hand in Missouri's recent offenses as the recently departed Christensen.

(Rest of the preview after the jump)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Gone is former defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who presided over a much maligned defensive in 2008. In steps linebackers coach Dave Steckel, who will bring some fire and brimstone and a "keep it simple" philosophy to the position.

On the defensive line, Missouri replaces three starters, two of whom (Evander Hood and Stryker Sulak) were NFL draft picks. The defensive end unit appears to be one of the strongest on the team, as reporters have gushed over the three-pronged end attack of Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, and Aldon Smith, with the first two having seen significant time in 2008. Although they'll need to prove their worth against the run, all three are explosive edge rushers who have gotten upfield with consistency and should provide Missouri its best pass rush of the Pinkel era. Missouri's biggest question may be inside, where returning starter Jaron Baston is accompanied by a large question mark at the other defensive tackle spot. The position seems to be an offseason-long battle between Terrell Resonno and Dominique Hamilton to fill the spot vacated by Ziggy Hood.

The Tigers return one of the top linebackers in the country in Sean Weatherspoon. In three seasons, Spoon has accounted for 302 tackles, eight sacks, 18.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions and two touchdowns. Luke Lambert will slide inside to fill the MLB spot vacated by Brock Christopher. The junior has very quietly gone about his business over the last two seasons. Andrew Gachkar is expected to win the final linebacking job. Gachkar, who had a rib removed to break up a blood clot before 2008, could very well determine Missouri's defensive strategy in 2009. In 2008, Missouri often used nickel packages to counter the high flying offenses of the Big 12. This season, Gachkar appears to be fast enough and strong enough in coverage to allow Missouri to remain in its base 4-3 more frequently.

Missouri runs six-deep at cornerback, but after third-year junior starter Carl Gettis at one corner, the other five are locked in a battle for the second spot. Gary Pinkel has praised the group as the most athletic he's had, but after a season where the unit was constantly crucified by national media and many fans, that athleticism needs to result in improved game performance. Missouri faces similar questions at safety, where the Tigers replace NFL draft pick William Moore, a 2007 all-American who was constantly fighting injuries in 2008. Sophomore Kenji Jackson showed great promise at the end of 2008 and appears to have locked down one safety spot. At the other safety spot, many Missouri fans expected senior Hardy Ricks to cede the spot to Jarrell Harrison, but Ricks -- highly regarded as a hitter but somewhat of an unknown quantity in coverage -- has supposedly held up his end of the bargain this spring. More than anything, the defensive backfield needs to shore up the communication issues that plagued them in 2008, resulting in several high profile breakdowns for big plays.

Special Teams

It will be no easy task for Missouri to replace Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned scholarship kicker who exited Mizzou as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The job has turned into a battle between Tanner Mills and Grant Ressel for placekicking duties, although Mills appears to have secured the job for kickoffs, a spot where he should be a definite improvement over Wolfert.

Jake Harry returns to punt for Missouri. The punting position was an area of concern for Tiger fans entering 2008, but Harry was solid all season long and perhaps the unsung hero of the Alamo Bowl against Northwestern. Missouri's punting was aided in 2008 when Missouri instituted the rugby punt against Oklahoma State to avoid Dez Bryant and carried it throughout the rest of the season.

Jeremy Maclin single handedly swung momentum in Missouri's favor in games against Illinois and Northwestern with returns for touchdowns, and it's not a stretch to say replacing his ability to change a game on special teams may be impossible. Right now, guesses about who gets the returning jobs are six for a dollar. Names that have floated around include Munir Prince, Jerrell Jackson, Kendial Lawrence, Jared Perry, Rolandis Woodland, De'Vion Moore and Jasper Simmons.

Key losses

-- Offense: QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman, OL Ryan Madison

-- Defense: DE Stryker Sulak, DT Ziggy Hood, LB Brock Christopher, S William Moore

-- Special Teams: K Jeff Wolfert, KR/PR Jeremy Maclin

Season Forecast

As it has for the last two seasons, Missouri begins its campaign in St. Louis, where they'll meet the Illinois Fighting Illini. Missouri has won all four meetings between the teams this decade, although Illinois will be a far more proven commodity in a game that should be a matchup of UI's proven talent versus MU's unproven potential. After home dates with Bowling Green and Furman, Missouri goes on the road to play what is perhaps the most sneakily dangerous game on the schedule, a nationally-televised Friday night game in Reno against the Nevada Wolf Pack. Missouri destroyed a solid Nevada team, 69-17, in Columbia last season, and the combination of the pressure of Missouri's first true road test and Nevada's potent offense could be very troublesome for a young Tiger team. Anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2 is a possibility for the Tigers to open 2009, with house money probably being played on 3-1.

Missouri opens conference play with probably its most pivotal game of the season when the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to Columbia for a nationally televised Thursday night game. Much like it was supposed to be two years ago, the game could be a statement about the balance of power in the Big 12 North. Win that game, and the Tigers are in play for a third straight North title.

After that, the Tigers figure to be underdogs against the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Texas Longhorns, but should be either favorites or close to a pick 'em in almost every game the rest of the season. Missouri has to travel to face the Kansas State Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes and faces everyone's upset special -- the Baylor Bears -- in Columbia. Once again, the Tigers end the season in Kansas City against the Kansas Jayhawks, where all bets are off and any predictions don't matter.

Question marks abound for Missouri, which is why prognosticators have the Tigers anywhere from 5-7 and fifth in the North to 10-2 and champions of the North. The truth, which may very well lie in the middle around 8-4, remains to be seen.

Predicted order of finish

Big 12 North
Kansas**
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

** Wins three-way tiebreaker on strength of 5-0 North record

Big 12 South
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

For more in-depth coverage, refer to our Mizzou Football Preview series:

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

Bill C. — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:00:18 -0000

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

In anticipation of Friday's Greatest Win finals (that's right, I flipped the schedule around yet again...ain't I a stinker?), let's take a longer look at Finalist #1, 2007 Mizzou-Kansas. Fitting that it comes during Kansas Week, eh? Let's start with an expanded version of the game description you've been reading for the last month.

After decades of producing bad, to mediocre, to good, to occasionally very good results, Missouri and Kansas had simultaneously thrown together potentially their greatest seasons ever in 2007. Missouri was 10-1 and ranked #3 in the country. Kansas was 11-0 and ranked #2. Both programs were riding sudden and shocking momentum late into November. And did I mention, they were meeting at Arrowhead? And that ESPN's Gameday crew was in attendance? And that #1 LSU had lost the day before, meaning the MU-KU winner would move to #1 a week before the BCS Championship pairing was determined?

All photos here come from the lovely and missed Sarah Becking's epic gallery.

This was the biggest game in history for both schools, and they played like it early. Two untouchable offenses were out of sync, trading three-and-outs at the start. Midway through the first quarter, neither team had managed a first down, but when Jeremy Maclin struck with a long punt return to KU's 32, Mizzou was in prime position. But after a personal foul on William Franklin, Mizzou had to settle for a 39-yard field goal attempt. They faked it, with Tommy Saunders throwing a quick out to Franklin, but he was stopped by Chris Harris and Justin Thornton short of the first down, and the game remained scoreless.

After another KU punt, Mizzou finally got rolling. An 11-play, 78-yard drive, assisted by a 20-yard pass to Danario Alexander and a 13-yarder to Saunders set Mizzou up with first-and-goal. On fourth down from the 1, on the game's first huge play, Chase Daniel found Martin on a quick inside screen for the game's first touchdown. With under a minute left in the first quarter, Mizzou led 7-0.

Kansas started the second quarter with their first good offensive play, a 39-yard pass to Kerry Meier, but going for the jugular on the next play, Todd Reesing underestimated William Moore, who stepped in front of a bomb to the endzone.

Thirteen plays (including some great runs by an on-his-game Tony Temple) and 98 yards later, Daniel had his Heisman moment, scrambling for seemingly minutes before finding Alexander for an 11-yard TD and a 14-0 lead. Things were looking up for Missouri, and that didn't change when two potential KU drives ended in missed field goals. What was supposed to be an offensive shootout was actually a bit of a grind, and Mizzou went to halftime up 14-0, just 30 minutes from their first #1 ranking in 47 years.

In the third quarter, Mizzou won the game. Once again, Kansas drove to start the second half, but on third-and-nine from the Mizzou 16, Castine Bridges made a spinning interception of Todd Reesing and returned the ball 49 yards to KU's 40. Nice rushes from Temple and freshman Derrick Washington, and a 10-yard pass to Franklin, set Mizzou up at KU's 1, and Jimmy Jackson barreled into the endzone. 21-0 Mizzou.

Finally, after spotting Mizzou a cushion, KU started to get untracked. Dezmon Briscoe made an amazing, diving catch of a 34-yard Reesing pass, and Brandon McAnderson scored from one yard out, cutting Mizzou's lead to 21-7, but Mizzou's offense was clicking at this point. Playing a bit of keep-away, Mizzou methodically drove 69 yards (in 14 plays and six minutes), converting three short third-down attempts and scoring on a short dump to Washington. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, Mizzou was up 28-7. They would have to hold onto that lead with all their might.

Whether it was a more conservative defense from Mizzou or just an angry, dialed-in KU offense, the Jayhawks were pretty much unstoppable in desperation mode. They drove 65 yards in three minutes, and on fourth-and-two from the Mizzou 5, Todd Reesing bootlegged into the endzone to cut Mizzou's lead to 14. Mizzou responded with a 10-play drive of their own but settled for a field goal. Jeff Wolfert was thankfully automatic at this point, and Mizzou took a 31-14 lead with 9:55 remaining. Tick, tock.

It took Kansas only 83 seconds to score again. After a nice kickoff return by Marcus Herford, Reesing found Briscoe three times and found Kerry Meier on a gorgeous pass-and-catch to set up a Dexton Fields touchdown reception. 31-21, 8:28 left.

Of all the memorable plays in this game, potentially the single biggest came in the middle of Mizzou's ensuing drive. KU was within 10 points and had momentum on their side. After a holding penalty on Martin Rucker, MU faced a third-and-14 from their own 42 with under seven minutes to go. In both of their finest hours, Daniel found Alexander once again, this time for 16 yards and a huge first down. With new breath, Mizzou got another first down and set up Wolfert for a clutch, 43-yard field goal. Mizzou was trading field goals for touchdowns, but they still led, 34-21, with just 3:31 remaining.

Once again, it took KU just 83 seconds to score. Reesing scrambled for seven yards on fourth-and-three from the Mizzou 33, then found Marcus Henry for a 5-yard touchdown. Two minutes and three seconds remained, and Mizzou's lead was somehow down to six points, 34-28. Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to recover the ensuing onside kick, but they did not. Mizzou was unable to get a first down, but they made KU kill another timeout and ran the clock down under 30 seconds before having to punt.

Every Mizzou fan in the stadium just knew that KU was going to block the ensuing punt, but they did not. Not only did Adam Crossett get off a lovely pooch kick to KU's 7, but Aqib Talib was able to return it for only four yards. KU had 17 seconds to go 89 yards. Here's where the Sports God would apply the biggest dagger ever to Mizzou hearts. Somehow KU was going to win this game.

Nope. The Mizzou defensive line blew up KU's offensive line and gang-tackled Todd Reesing in the endzone for the game-clinching safety (Mike Kelly's call: "Safety! Ballgame! Bingo!"). Sod Reesing was born, and Mizzou had just won the biggest game in the history of the rivalry.

This win led to the single most celebratory week most Mizzou fans have experienced. Not only did they move to #1 with the win, but they had also ruined (somewhat) KU's best season ever. Mizzou was one win from the national title game--the closest the Tigers have ever come to a "Final Four." Here's something Michael Atchison wrote on RMN the days after the game.

I am prone to belief in the divine, but not the supernatural. I recognize the existence of coincidence, happenstance, and random events of bad fortune. Never in my life have I believed in curses. Except when it comes to the Missouri Tigers.

There are the lightning bolts of cosmic scorn that even casual fans know: Colorado’s fifth down, Nebraska’s kicked ball, Tyus Edney’s zero-to-heartbreak in 4.8 seconds. There have been other moments, equally powerful but more obscure, like first round NCAA flameouts against Rhode Island and Northern Iowa back when I’d never heard of Rhode Island or Northern Iowa (geography, alas, was not a strong suit). And then there were those times when we were made to pay for our prosperity, like when the undefeated, top-ranked football Tigers lost their shot at the national title by falling to Kansas in the 1960 season’s final game, only to have the game futilely forfeited back later. Or Norm Stewart being blindsided by cancer at age 54 in the midst of a season in which he had one of his best and toughest teams. Or 2002, when an ascending basketball program welcomed Ricky Clemons to town and became a national punch line. Sadly, I could go on. There’s more where that came from.

Despite what rational thought tells you, sometimes you have to believe your eyes. When water falls from the clouds, it’s rain. When calamity pours from the sky, it’s a curse.

After one remarkable week in Kansas City, though, I proclaim Mizzou to be cleansed. The curse is over.

It started on a Sunday night, in a reborn downtown, in a shimmering building, when Norm Stewart took his place in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame. As the coach stood at the podium nearly nineteen years after beating cancer – and helping countless others do the same through his charitable efforts – you knew that he was blessed. He was surrounded by family, including Virginia, his wife of fifty-one years, and his son Lindsey, who gave a world-class induction speech, full of the humor and fire he inherited from his dad. Coach Stewart also was joined by the other starters from his high school basketball team, and by members of the Stalcup, Faurot and Devine families who brought him back to Columbia in 1967. And he was surrounded by his players, Tiger titans like John Brown, Willie Smith, Steve Stipanovich, Jon Sundvold and Derrick Chievous, who won eight league championships and eleven conference tournaments (five old holiday affairs, six post-season events) in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. To see this living history mingling in the same room, it was plain that the good times have far outnumbered the bad, and hard to fathom that we might ever have considered ourselves unlucky, let alone cursed.

It continued the next night in the same building, when the Tiger basketball team played eleventh-ranked Michigan State. I had heard laments that years of scandal and mediocrity had crushed fan enthusiasm, as evidenced by only 5,000 turning out to see the Tigers play Central Michigan on a Monday in Columbia. But what I saw in the Sprint Center suggests that the problem may be playing Central Michigan. On a Monday. In Columbia. In Kansas City, against a top-flight opponent, an overwhelmingly pro-Mizzou crowd of more than 18,000 turned out, and those fans were fierce and hungry for success. And though the Tigers’ rally from sixteen points down fell just short, they played with purpose, and the crowd loved them for it. The next night, when those fans returned to see the Tigers drill Maryland – a program with a national title this decade – it was plain that Mike Anderson’s team is immune from the voodoo of Mizzou’s recent past.

Then, on Friday, already surrounded by a family of Tigers in town for Thanksgiving, I drove to the airport to meet my friends Scott (in from Denver) and T.J. (New York). In recent years, with the demands of careers and families, our gatherings had been limited to weddings and funerals. But with our alma mater’s football team set to play its arch-rival in the year’s biggest game, we ran out of excuses not to get together. As we caught up and remembered winter nights at the Hearnes Center and spring Saturdays at Simmons Field, I realized that the Missouri Tigers had blessed me with the chance to share time with these great friends.

And then, of course, came Saturday night. I’ve never seen a stadium so electric, or a Tiger team so self-assured. From my perch on the verge of 40, it’s easy to forget how young these guys are. Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker are barely old enough to remember the past’s great disappointments. They don’t believe in curses, they believe in each other. When Stryker Sulak and Lo Williams fell down like hard rain on Todd Reesing to secure a heart-stopping triumph, I looked to my right at my wife, who has shared the joy and despair of Tiger sports with me for nearly two decades, and I saw relief. I looked left at my father-in-law, who played on that star-crossed 1960 team, and I saw vindication. Then, as I thrust my hands in the air and looked up into the night sky, from which no calamity had fallen, my mind drifted to the elegant toast T.J. made at Scott’s wedding. Traditionally, he said, the guests bless the newly wedded couple. But when a bride and groom like this share their moment, they bless us.

Missouri Tigers, you bless us. The curse is dead.

Bevo's Daily Roundup - August 12, 2009

dimecoverage — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 11:00:10 -0000

23 days until the Louisiana-Monroe game

Roddrick Muckelroy's best asset? Pen and paper.

"He takes notes in the meetings and asks questions, asks the right questions," Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp said. "He watches film in the right way, and he does it every single day."

Is that typical?

"Not typical enough," Muschamp said. "We've got to get more guys who see his attitude and approach to the game."

Jordan Shipley has been named to the 2009 Biletnikoff Award watch list.

Mack Brown blogs about the day in the life of a UT player during training camp.

The Aggies are back. Back in College Station.

If things don't work out at quarterback, Ryan Tannehill wants to move back to the receiver position.

"I came here to be a quarterback," Tannehill (right) said after practice late Monday night.

But he's also earned a reputation, with good reason, as one of the Aggies' biggest team players. Here's one reason why: Tannehill told me he'd want to move back to receiver if he doesn't earn the starting quarterback gig.

"I definitely want to be on the field," Tannehill said while walking to the Bright Complex after a two-and-a-half-hour practice. "It's hard to help the team standing on the sidelines."

This year, Mike Sherman wants a different tone in the locker room and on the field.

Trent Hunter was one of 10 true freshman who played last year. They were talented, but it was obvious they did things the right way, Sherman's Way, which apparently wasn't the case for many of the upperclassmen.

"I think [a divided team] is one of the worst distractions you can have in a locker room," Hunter said. "Guys not getting along and not acting like a team. That's just one of the things you can't have as a football team."

Hunter grew into one of the team's leaders, but it's hard for freshmen to tell upperclassmen they aren't moving the program forward.

"It was rough, it was a rough ride," Hunter said. "You just tried to do the best to set this year's foundation."

Oklahoma State

Happy birthday to Mike Gundy.

New facilities can't do anything but help recruiting.

"These facilities can get us two or three players a year that we wouldn't have gotten otherwise," Cowboy associate head coach Joe DeForest said. "Over a period of four to five years, you get 12 to 15 guys — difference-making guys — that you wouldn't have gotten before the stadium was renovated. Before the stadium project, we might have gotten one (elite recruit) per class."

Of the 15 players on OSU's 2010 commitment list, coach Mike Gundy estimates that five made their decision ultimately because of the Cowboys' facilities upgrade.

Georgia's defense is attempting to prepare for Dez Bryant.

"Dez Bryant will be a big challenge for our whole defense, because one guy will not be able to shut him down," Miller said. "It's going to take a total team effort to shut him down, as well as their other receivers and their running backs."

What about that SI cover curse? The Cowboys get the cover of the regional SI magazine coming out today.

Another roommate story. Cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Terrance Anderson will bookend the field for the Cowboy defense.

As a rookie, Cox was good enough to get some playing time at cornerback. He made eight starts in 2007 and 13 last season. As a senior, he has developed into a possible All-Big 12 defender and still ranks among the more dangerous return specialists in college football.

Now a senior, after performing extremely well during the spring, Anderson has the other cornerback starting job.

When the Georgia Bulldog receivers come to town for the Sept. 5 opener, they will be chased by roommates — Cox on the wide side of the field, Anderson on the short side.

"I really feel like it's my time — my time to go out there and perform," the 5-foot-11, 185-pound Anderson

said. "I've gotten playing time since my sophomore year, so I'm accustomed to running with (the No. 1 defense).

Oklahoma

Sam Bradford is motivated by one thing.

"Yeah, I've watched the game and it's especially frustrating," Bradford said. "We were very good in the red zone all year and then to see us not execute all season is very frustrating. We can learn from it that if you want to win, you have to convert every time."

The loss was the Sooners' fifth-straight BCS bowl game loss and third-straight title game. That defeat has helped unify the Sooners as they prepare for the season.

"Any time you lose a national championship game, it will stick with you," Bradford said. "I think about it a lot. Anyone on this team who told you they didn't think about it would be lying to you."

There is a center shortage in Norman.

With projected starter Ben Habern and backup Brian Lepak both limited by injuries, Oklahoma has started preseason camp preparing for the worst at center.

Tight end Brody Eldridge has been handling the snaps with the first team, getting ready in case he's called upon in the Sept. 5 season opener against BYU.

"Just to develop depth," Sooners coach Bob Stoops said. "Just to make sure that if you're ever in an emergency situation, you've got someone that can handle it. It's natural for Brody. Blocking's blocking."

The left tackle position seems under control.

Last Friday, Wilson heaped high praise on starting left tackle Trent Williams.

"The best lineman that I've had since I've been here — and I did have two former players (Jammal Brown and Davin Joseph) who played in the Pro Bowl last year that were first-round picks — is No. 71," Wilson said of Williams. "It's not close."

You may see a lot more players tossed out of games because the Big 12 is cracking down on cheap shots to the head area.

Texas coach Mack Brown admitted he is petrified of the possibilities.

The intent is to rid the game of deliberate, violent hits to the heads of unprotected, defenseless players with the purpose of causing injury. No reasonable person save maybe Skip Bayless would argue against that mission.

So what happens when, on the third play of the game, Texas' Sergio Kindle unintentionally whacks a falling Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford above the shoulders a few seconds after his release, and one well-meaning official flags the Longhorns' best defensive player for a personal foul and ejects him from the game?

Or if OU's Auston English did the same to Colt McCoy long after the whistle, not that that would ever happen (read: 2007 game), and is escorted to the Sooners' sideline for the rest of the game.

The committee also supports flagging those excessive celebrations.

The committee also supported moves to continue flagging as unsportsmanlike-conduct personal fouls what I consider innocent celebrations. For example, Washington's en masse party in the end zone with a ball flipped in the air — UW missed the long-distance, game-tying extra point in a 28-27 loss to BYU — and Quan Cosby's dive into the Fiesta Bowl end zone after the Longhorns' winning touchdown. Spike a ball or flip it up, still a penalty. Officials will also flag those impromptu first-down gestures by players as taunting fouls.

Husker Locker evaluates the Big 12 offensive coordinators.

The National Championship Issue looks at nonconference games and what ramifications they have have for the conference as a whole. Big 12 nonconference games 1998-2008.

For a while there the theory was that a big non-conference win could catapault you into the big game, ala Texas vs Ohio State in the mid 2000's. But now the reality is that a big win by someone in your conference can have positive ramifications on all members. Case in point: the SEC and ACC had nearly identical pre-bowl non-conference records last year, and a good case can be made that the ACC played a harder schedule. But in the big matchup between the two in the first week, Alabama pummeled Clemson and the SEC never looked back. And what happened out west? USC demolished Ohio State, but the rest of the Pac10 fell asleep against the Mountain West. Sorry, Trojans.

So how your conference does as a whole can certainly factor in to where your team stands - being ranked highly and winning as much as everyone else just doesn't cut it anymore. As such, in addition to the usual conference standings I post with my weekly rankings, we'll be going more in-depth with the conferences this season.

Nine Big 12 players are on the 2009 Outland Trophy watch list.

Tim Griffin predicts that nine Big 12 teams will go bowling this year. Even the Aggies.

Here is one of those "What's Hot, What's Not" list" from ESPN's Mark Schlabach.

The South

The Bears need to be able to count on their defensive ends.

It’s a quarterback’s world in the Big 12.

The passing game makes nearly every offense go throughout the league, making it more important than ever for defenses to pressure quarterbacks out of their comfort zone.

"A sack to a defensive lineman is like Christmas to a little kid," Baylor sophomore defensive end Zac Scotton said. "Every one is precious and game changing."

Scotton, sophomore Tracy Robertson, redshirt freshman Gary Mason and junior Jameon Hardeman know they have to step up and deliver.

Though it’s one of the youngest and least experienced areas of the team, Baylor defensive coordinator Brian Norwood has confidence the defensive ends will get the job done.

Now that Crabtree has departed for the NFL, who will be the Red Raiders top receiver? That coveted spot will probably go to Detron Lewis, but just don't comapre him to that other guy.

"I'm my own man," he said after Texas Tech's practice on Sunday.
"I'm Detron."

With two-time Biletnikoff Award winner Michael Crabtree departing, Lewis recognizes that he is projected to become the Red Raiders' top receiver.

"I'm embracing that role," he said. "I knew I was going to be one of the guys [expected to step up] when Crab left. I just don't want to be compared to him."

So why is Mike Leach still in lubbock?

Why hasn't he jumped to a school with more resources?

Miami and UCLA have called in the past and Leach, depending upon who's talking, would have walked to either job or didn't return the calls. During the winter he interviewed with Washington, which led to some bizarre contract negotiations with Texas Tech. In April 2008, with three years left on his contract, Leach asked for a $15.25 million, five- year extension. Myers wouldn't discuss it until after the 2008 season.

The priate gets his own Texas Monthly cover.

Practice reports:

Tech
Baylor

The North

Missouri no longer has the team's leading scorer from the past three years to rely on in clutch situations. Chase Daniel? Jeremy Maclin? No, the kicker Jeff Wolfert.

Last year, then-kicker Jeff Wolfert built a reputation for consistency. When Missouri football coach Gary Pinkel called on him for field goals, he delivered at a rate of 74 percent. In three years, Wolfert never missed an extra point.

This is not the list you want to be on. Iowa State made ESPN's Bottom 10.

"Man In The Mirror": If you want to make the world a better place, take a look at yourself, then make a change. The Cyclones are counting on new coach Paul Rhoads to make that change.

The Kansas City Star.

Practice reports:

Ron Prince continues to haunt Kansas State.

Former Kansas State football coach Ron Prince is asking for $3 million in punitive damages as part of his counterclaim against the university.

Prince’s agent, Neil Cornrich, said Kansas State "acted with reckless disregard of the truth and duties under the law" and "will profit from its wanton and malicious misconduct to the detriment of Mr. Prince…"

This has to be the worst collegiate marketing idea ever.

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Yesterday we took an in-depth (as always) look at the Baylor offense. While Robert Griffin should continue to develop, it's hard to see the Bears being too much more potent with what appears to be a pretty iffy line up front and few potential new difference-makers. On the defensive side of the ball, however, things get really interesting. Art Briles was never known as much of a defense guy at Houston, but he (or more accurately, Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood) had some toys to play with on that side of the ball in 2009. If the baseball truism about the importance of up-the-middle defense (catcher, 2B/SS, CF) is similar for football (DT, MLB, S), then Baylor could have a pretty dangerous defense in 2009.

Okay, not really dangerous, but this unit could improve a pretty decent amount.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 102.1 (#58)
Success Rate+: 97.4 (#68)
PPP+: 108.1 (#49)

Standard Downs S&P+: 107.0 (#42)
Passing Downs S&P+: 99.8 (#65)

Redzone S&P+: 108.6 (#41)

Q1 S&P+: 98.8 (#68)
Q2 S&P+: 100.7 (#63)
Q3 S&P+: 119.6 (#20)
Q4 S&P+: 100.6 (#56)

1st Down S&P+: 111.9 (#26)
2nd Down S&P+: 103.6 (#49)
3rd Down S&P+: 98.5 (#64)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 100.4 (#65)
Rushing SR+: 94.1 (#81)
Rushing PPP+: 110.2 (#45)

Standard Downs: 103.8 (#48)
Passing Downs: 108.3 (#51)

Redzone: 109.4 (#40)

Line Yards+: 92.3 (#90)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 102.4 (#56)
Passing SR+: 100.7 (#54)
Passing PPP+: 104.4 (#53)

Standard Downs: 109.9 (#28)
Passing Downs: 97.1 (#70)

Redzone: 110.6 (#32)

Sack Rate+: 84.0 (#81)

With tackling machines Joe Pawelek and Jordan Lake on the case, Baylor was able to pretty effectively limit opposing offenses' explosiveness (i.e. PPP+), especially as it pertained to the running game. However, the overall lack of talent on the field limited what Baylor was able to do in terms of efficiency (Success Rate+). Aside from one giant exception at defensive tackle, the personnel doesn't change much. Six starters among the back seven return, which is either good or bad, depending on how you look at it.

Other thoughts:

This defense showed one of the hallmarks of a hard-working, less-talented unit: good first down/Standard Downs numbers and horrendous third down/Passing Downs numbers.
While the BU offense peaked by far in the first half, the defense was pretty consistently mediocre aside from apparently making pretty nice second-half adjustments--they ranked between 56th and 68th in Q1, Q2, and Q4, while jumping up to 20th in Q3.
You have to wonder what BU could have done without an atrocious D-line.

Defensive Line

All eyes are on this man. And I mean, MAN.

2008 Unit Ranking: #91 in the nation (#12 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Phil Taylor (6'4, 355, Jr.)
DT Trey Bryant (6'2, 310, Sr.)
DE Zac Scotton (6'7, 260, So.)
DE Tracy Robertson (6'4, 260, So.)
DT Jason Lamb (6'5, 270, Sr.)
DT Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (6'1, 300, So.)
DE Jameon Hardeman (6'1, 230, Jr.)
DE Fred Plesius (6'1, 260, RSFr.)

Baylor loses three starters from the aforementioned atrocious line, and I don't think Bear fans are losing too much sleep over that. Two main reasons for that: 1) they weren't very good, and 2) OHMYGOD WHO IS THAT GIANT AT DEFENSIVE TACKLE??

That would be Phil Taylor, a former four-star recruit from suburban DC (Clinton, MD), had 20 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 6.5 TFLs, and 2 fumble recoveries for the Nittany Lions in 2007 before getting into an on-campus fight, getting one year of probation, and getting kicked off the team. He transferred to Baylor because new BU Defensive Coordinator Brian Norwood had originally recruited him to PSU when he was Secondary Coach in Happy Valley. He was recently voted the Big 12's Preseason Newcomer of the Year (what a silly award this is, when you think about it), and expectations are high, to say the least. If Taylor keeps his nose clean and thrives, then suddenly Baylor has all-conference talent at DT, LB, and safety. If not, if he's a bust, then this unit could very well be worse than it was last year.

Beyond Taylor (and let's be honest, at 6'4, 355, it's hard to see beyond this guy), there's not much to write home about. Jason Lamb (0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFL, and a blocked kick in 2008) moves from end to tackle, giving the Bears decent experience at tackle when you throw in Trey Bryant (4.0 sacks/TFL, 5 QB Hurries). That paves the way for a bunch of unknowns to get a shot at end. Zac Scotton and Tracy Robertson certainly look the part at DE, but they and speed rusher Jameon Hardeman combined for just 2.5 TFL/Sacks and 4 QBH in 2008. Scotton and Robertson could both turn it on as sophomores, but let's just say I'm not tremendously optimistic.

Basically, this unit will go as far as Taylor takes them. If he's a truly dominant force, then the rest of the line starts to look pretty good. If he's a bust, then this unit will rank about 80th at best this year.

Linebackers

Okay, you've won me over, Pawelek.

2008 Unit Ranking: #51 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Joe Pawelek (6'2, 240, Sr.)
Antonio Johnson (6'0, 210, Jr.)
Antonio Jones (6'2, 225, Sr.)
Earl Patin (6'2, 225, Jr.)
Chris Francis (6'0, 235, Jr.)
Elliot Coffey (6'0, 220, So.)

For the first two years of his Baylor career, I brushed aside Joe Pawelek as just a "somebody had to make the tackles" guy at LB on a bad defense. Bad defenses always have a linebacker or safety with ridiculous tackle numbers, and Pawelek was Baylor's guy. But last year he caught my attention not for the number of tackles he made, but the number of plays. He intercepted six passes, racked up 6.0 TFL (not too bad for an LB), broke up seven passes, forced a fumble, and recovered two. I'm still not sure if he's quite an all-conference talent, but he should be quite good as a senior. Meanwhile, the Two Antonios (Johnson and Jones) combined for 14.5 TFL/Sacks, two forced fumbles, and two recoveries. The LB unit still didn't put up amazing numbers by any means (9th in the conference), but this is a solid, experienced unit. Let's put it this way: if the Baylor defense is as bad or worse than it was last year, the linebackers won't be the reason why.

Secondary

I can't decide if Jordan Lake is actually good, or if my view is clouded by the fact that he was in Chase Daniel's head all game long last year.

2008 Unit Ranking: #57 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Jordan Lake (6'1, 210, Sr.)
CB Antareis Bryan (6'2, 190, Jr.)
CB Tim Atchison (6'1, 205, Jr.)
S Jeremy Williams (5'11, 205, Sr.)
S Jeremy Sanders (6'2, 210, Sr.)
CB Clifton Odom (5'11, 195, Jr.)
S T.J. Scranton (5'11, 190, Sr.)
CB Trentson Hill (6'0, 185, So.)

Late in the Baylor-Missouri game, Jordan Lake read Chase Daniel perfectly and almost picked off a pass that, according to the radio announcers, he would have easily taken to the house. If that happens, Baylor potentially beats Missouri. Think of how that would have changed the 2008 season--Mizzou doesn't win the North (unless the kick-in-the-balls from the Baylor loss spurred them on to beating KU), and Baylor gets to five wins. You could conceivably say that with the confidence from a big win over Missouri, they may not have completely fallen apart down the stretch in Lubbock and beaten Tech too. But alas, Lake dropped the ball, Jeff Wolfert kicked the game-winning field goal, and 2008 unfolded as we remember it. While he didn't make as many plays as Pawelek, Lake proved himself as a hard-hitter and all-around solid safety, and the secondary as a whole was...well, downright decent. Not great, not even very good, but decent. And that was a step up from recent years. The unit should improve in 2009, as it returns most of its decent play-makers from 2008.

Lake returns for his senior season; he will team with Jeremy Williams (6.5 TFL/Sacks, 4 PBR) to make a dangerous tandem at safety, and while junior corners Antareis Bryan, Tim Atchison, and Clifton Odom won't be confused for OU's corners or anything, they've put together quite a bit of expeirence in their first two years. If the defensive line is helping to leverage teams into passing downs and getting pressure on the quarterback, this secondary is good enough to take advantage. They won't make a lot of plays without help from the front seven, but they could be a good complement.

Special Teams

My nominee for punt returner. And I'm only half-kidding. Okay, two-thirds kidding.

2008 Rankings: #7 Net Punting, #118 Punt Returns, #29 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Ben Parks (6'2, 205, So.) - 39-for-44 PAT, 6-for-9 FG (long: 42)
P Derek Epperson (6'3, 240, Jr.) - 38.8 Net
KR Mikail Baker (6'0, 205, Sr.) - 25.3 Avg, 1 TD
PR Krys Buerck (5'11, 180, Jr.)

The Baylor special teams unit should be pretty decent in 2009. Ben Parks was okay as a kicker--a 67% FG rate isn't terrible, though the five missed PATs are about four too many. Derek Epperson filled the role of Daniel Sepulveda II pretty nicely (Baylor always seems to have a good punter), and Mikail Baker is a relatively dangerous kick returner. If Parks improves, this unit will be something of a strength. If he doesn't...meh.

Summary

It's funny--when I'm writing about Baylor, I type out very so-so, mediocre phrases ("decent experience at tackle," "not quite sure if he's an all-conference talent," "didn't put up amazing numbers by any means," "not great, not even very good, but decent," "could be a good complement") in an intrigued, encouraging manner. I'm not going to pretend that, even with Phil Taylor thriving, Baylor will have a dominant, potentially Top-Four-in-conference defense. But what they could have is a play-making one, a bend-but-don't-break-and-hope-somebody-makes-a-sack-or-INT defense not unlike what Mizzou had in 1998, when they almost literally scored a defensive touchdown in every game. If they can make enough big plays to counteract what will likely be pretty high yardage and point totals, the Hot Tub Griffin III-led offense should do well enough to keep Baylor in most games. And if Griffin begins to thrive in the clutch (something he very much did not do in 2008 as a true freshman), then Baylor becomes a very viable bowl team.

Without giving away any results, Friday's BTBS projections will show that Baylor has eight games projected within eight points. Clearly stat projections aren't going to take "the defense could potentially make big plays and score some points of their own" into account, but clearly they're going to have some opportunities in 2009. Unfortunately for Baylor, a) I think their offense is still a year away from being able to consistently take advantage of those opportunities, and b) a year from now, the BU defense will be without Pawelek, Lake, Williams, Jones, and potential Taylor, if he lives up to the hype. As I mentioned yesterday, there's no more fun non-Mizzou player to root for than Hot Tub Griffin III, but while I'm almost positive Baylor will sneak into a bowl game before he leaves Waco, I don't think it will be in 2009. Might not be in 2010 either, but we'll see.

---

Projections on Friday.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

Chiefs Will Have a Bunch of Visits on Friday

Joel Thorman — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:59:26 -0000

The Kansas City Chiefs will workout a handful of players from area teams on Friday according to Randy Covitz of the Kansas City Star.. An NFL rule allows teams to bring in local players. This is used mostly for those that weren't invited to any of the post-season activities. For the Chiefs this includes KU, MU, KSU, Ball State and Missouri Western.

Here's a few links for the players that will be coming to the Chiefs complex tomorrow.

QB Josh Freeman, KSU

Josh Freeman set to visit the Chiefs (but he's not working out)
#18 pick in the Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft (pre-Cutler trade)
27 on the Wonderlic Test
Pre-Cassel, Peter King says Freeman could be an option for the Chiefs

LB Mike Rivera, KU

WR Tommy Saunders, MU

NFL Draft Scout

LB Brock Christopher, MU

NFL Draft Scout

K Jeff Wolfert, MU

NFL Draft Scout

TE Chase Coffman, MU

G Roger Allen, Missouri Western

We heard he had a workout with the Chiefs scheduled

TE Darius Hill, Ball State

NFL Draft Scout

There are likely more players that will be attending the workout but that's all we've got for now. Remember to check out our Chiefs Draft Interests page (constantly updated and on the right side bar) and make sure you're using the FanShot section if you come across any other scheduled workouts or Chiefs draft interests.

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

RPT — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:51:00 -0000

Disclaimer: Rather than the typical bullet point analysis, this post will be a long and meandering string of thoughts I forced into prose. Hang with me here as I give you a summation of my thoughts from four rows up in the Alamodome end zone.

Having been what appears to be one of the select few of RMN regulars who made it down to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl, there's not much that hasn't been said here that I can add. More than anything, for as disappointing as the season was, it seemed like a season of moderate disappointment was bookended in similar fashion. Missouri began the season with a shootout with a Big Ten team that was fueled by a Maclin return in the first half and Sean Weatherspoon's dominance in the second half. Substitute "shootout" with "slugfest," and you have the exact recipe of Mizzou's Alamo Bowl victory.

Before I delve too deeply into Missouri's end of the equation, I first want to send some love the way of Evanston, Ill. As the 2008 campaign progressed, I was highly enamored with the coaching jobs done by the men in charge of two of Missouri's opponents: Buffalo's Turner Gill and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. You can now add Pat Fitzgerald to that list. I've always loved his fire, but after last night, I now respect the man's ability. It should have come as no surprise to me how disciplined NU was defensively and how solid the unit was in pursuit and in wrapping up ballcarriers.

Secondly, I think this game swings far more in favor of Missouri had Tyrell Sutton not been able to go. Before the game, it was clear from highlights that Sutton added a different dynamic to the NU offense, one I asked Lake the Posts to try and quantify last Thursday. Between outstanding balance, great hands (despite one being in a cast), a never-ending motor, and some quick burst, Sutton proved himself as the perfect scat back for NU's style of offense.

The atmosphere at the game seemed very reflective of the attitudes of each school entering the game. The Northwestern players and fans looked absolutely thrilled to be in San Antonio, while the Missouri players and fans looked somewhat determined to redefine the word "complacency." The warmups seemed uninspired, the drills seemed rusty. As ghtd36 passed on in the game thread, the team found motivation from the one man we knew we could count on to try to light a fire: Tommy Saunders (love that kid).

More rambling after the jump.

Needless to say, when the game finally kicked off, Mizzou still didn't seem ready to play. No disrespect to NU, but between penalties and dumb mistakes, Mizzou was beating Mizzou. It took a football team as talented and as sound as Northwestern to make Mizzou pay for its mistakes, but for the majority of the game, the Tigers did not play like a team that deserved to win, much less like Big 12 North champions or a team that began the season with BCS aspirations.

As far as players on the field are concerned, that all began with Chase Daniel's play in the final game of his illustrious Missouri career. I couldn't believe it was happening, but in the second half, Daniel found himself being booed by the Missouri fans after another missed deep ball. What was more unbelievable, though, was that I understood the booing, and semi-agreed. As I look back, Daniel is a victim of his own expectation. When we come to expect excellence, then "pretty good" looks lackluster. When we expect at least "pretty good," an average effort by most QBs standards looks downright pedestrian. And that's exactly what Daniel looked like last night - pedestrian. What made Daniel great in 2007 was his decision making and his ability to always find an open receiver. In 2008, Daniel trusted his arm at the expense of his head. The third INT was a perfect example. Daniel thinks he sees blitz, predetermines a receiver, and one throw later, Mizzou is in trouble.

As for Jeremy Maclin, what can be said that already hasn't? When the game ended, J-Mac smiled as he walked in front of Missouri fans collectively chanting "One more year!" I found myself chanting along, but in my heart, a large part of me wants to see him go to the next level. No. 9 has done wonders for this university in only two years, and his service will continue if he represents the Mizzou football program in a positive manner in the NFL at the level projected for him by NFL scouts.

The same goes for Coffman, minus the questions about his return. I don't need to expound upon the love the Flying Nunchuk gets around these parts, but I'm not sure I'll ever see a set of hands like No. 45's in a Mizzou uniform again, and that's no slight to future Tigers. Watching him in person has been a privilege I'm not sure I can accurately convey with words.

Defensively, a couple of downfield breakdowns aside, we were able to see the kind of individual talent on this defense that was so highly touted before the season and so highly criticized as it progressed. I'm not sure how others have graded them out, but from field level, the D-Line looked absolutely incredible. Stryker Sulak had the type of game you come to expect from Stryker Sulak (including his second straight bowl game Superman). Jaron Baston commanded special attention inside. The numbers may not reflect it, but Ziggy Hood was dominant inside, as the NU guards had no answer for Z's quickness (causing the back-to-back holding penalties in NU's red zone). Brian Coulter showed good burst when he decided to line up on the correct side of the neutral zone, and Jacquies Smith continues to show an uncanny ability to get upfield every play, a huge asset on passing downs but a bit of a concern on rushing plays and screens.

The linebacking corps displayed why it was the backbone of this defense all year, as Sean Weatherspoon was unequivocally the most dominant player on the field Monday. Run stopping? Spoon. Pass coverage? Spoon. Pursuit? Spoon. Wrapping up? Spoon. Holding teammates accountable? Spoon. Firing teammates up? Spoon. But for all of the love we feed Spoon, Brock Christopher has been very much a forgotten man among common Missouri fans. Christopher's knack for timely turnovers (against Baylor and all opponents named "NU") hopefully draws attention to his nose for the football. While I have no doubt that Missouri has an excess of linebackers who can fly (Gachkar, Ebner, etc.), I'm slightly scared to see if Missouri has anyone capable of filling Brock's shoes of a linebacker who can break down and maintain leverage inside, particularly against the run.

Yet, watching the defensive backfield was like watching a bad rerun. Carl Gettis couldn't have picked a much worse time for the worst game of his career (after RMN has vehemently defended him). Justin Garrett was once again either the victim or the perpetrator of a miscommunication on a deep touchdown pass. Kenji Jackson continues to be the in the right place at the right time, but if there were Heismans for almost making plays, KJ would have to at least get an invite to the ceremony. He couldn't have been more than 6 inches from a pick on NU's last TD pass, and he was one NU bobble from another interception earlier in the game.

The most tragic of the defensive back field analyses though is that of one William Moore. What could have been if Willy Mo was healthy and properly used? We've beaten the horse to death, but why put your best ballhawking, centerfield safety and play him at the line of scrimmage all game long? Just because it allows to disguise his blitzing patterns, or are you that concerned with covering the slot? 2007 Willy Mo was a fantastic safety. Injuries and Matt Eberflus reduced 2008 Willy Mo to an above-average nickelback.

Hidden in the passion of victory but supported by The Boy in his recent BTBS post was the play of Jake Harry. Remember when punting was our biggest concern this offseason? The decision to rugby punt in the OSU game and throughout the season was, I thought, one of the better moves of the year, and it paid off handsomely in the Alamo Bowl. Then there's the story of Jeff Wolfert, the diver turned walk-on turned best kicker in NCAA history turned potential goat. What a storyline, and what a finish at a result.

You add it all together, and it made for a drama none of us would have or could have predicted five months ago. And when you think about the 2008 season, I'm not sure it would have been appropriate to end any other way.

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:00:07 -0000

We were out of sorts all game, Chase Daniel's never played worse, we were falling down in pass coverage, we couldn't run the ball, our "most accurate kicker of all-time" missed a game-ending FG, we were a step behind in our play-calling for much of the game...and we won our 10th game of the season. How in the hell did this happen??

Missouri (30)		NW'ern (23)
	% Close = 100.0%
63.2%	Field Position %	36.8%
70.3%	Leverage %	69.9%

	TOTAL
74	Plays	83
18.55	EqPts	22.09
41.9%	Success Rate	41.0%
0.25	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.27
0.670	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.676

	CLOSE GAME ONLY
same	Plays	same
same	EqPts	same
same	Success Rate	same
same	PPP	same
same	S&P	same

	RUSHING
4.45	EqPts	4.06
34.5%	Success Rate	40.0%
0.15	PPP	0.12
0.498	S&P	0.516
3.00	Line Yards/carry	3.03

	PASSING
14.10	EqPts	18.03
46.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.31	PPP	0.38
0.780	S&P	0.792
2.2%	Sack Rate	10.4%

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
48.1%	Success Rate	43.1%
0.25	PPP	0.28
0.726	S&P	0.708
3.1%	Sack Rate	3.2%
38.5%	Run Rate	46.6%

	PASSING DOWNS
27.3%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.26	PPP	0.24
0.536	S&P	0.600
0.0%	Sack Rate	23.5%
40.9%	Run Rate	32.0%

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	1
5.79	Points Lost	1.84
7.70	Points Given	3.33
13.49	Total T/O Pts	5.17
-8.32	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.32

0.678	Q1 S&P	0.868
0.721	Q2 S&P	0.603
0.729	Q3 S&P	0.991
0.607	Q4/Q5 S&P	0.377

0.509	1st Down S&P	0.678
0.670	2nd Down S&P	0.587
0.971	3rd/4th Down S&P	0.790

0.410	In own red zone	0.515
0.723	25 to 25	0.839
0.600	In opp. red zone	0.491

Thoughts after the jump...

Taking EqPts and Turnover Points into account, Northwestern should have won this game by about 12 points. But two things won this game for Missouri:

1) Total Missouri plays inside own red zone (which I define as inside the 25 instead of inside the 20): 4. Total Northwestern plays inside own red zone: 30. Alamo Bowl Co-MVP: Jake Harry.

2) Northwestern's Q4/Q5 S&P: 0.377. In their last 23 plays, NW'ern gained 40 yards. Just an outstanding performance by the defense down the stretch. And really, aside from two major breakdowns--Willy Mo stumbling around like a drunk on the first TD and either Carl Gettis getting roasted or Gettis and Justin Garrett not being on the same page on what coverage was being run (again) on NW'ern's Q3 go-ahead TD--the defense was good all game, believe it or not.
Look at that sack rate! For the first time all season, the blitz worked, and it ended up winning the game for Mizzou. I don't know if they attempted different things, or if the same things just worked this time, but kudos to Matt Eberflus for figuring something out after a rough year of play-calling.
Whereas NU's 11-for-21 performance on third downs kept them into the game to a degree (0.790 S&P on 3rd/4th downs), it was Mizzou's third-down performance (0.971) that made the difference. They faced longer third downs more often, but still converted a high rate. And in a game in which they seemingly had no hope for a big play, they had to work the dink-and-dunk routine themselves, and they did just that.
Kudos to NW'ern for shutting down Derrick Washington. I predicted that NW'ern wouldn't do much on the ground, and I was right...but I thought D-Wash would eventually start finding some holes, and I was very much incorrect. Overall, the rushing game was a wash for both teams.
Passing...eesh. Really, Mizzou's 46.7% success rate isn't too shabby (though it's well below their season average). The big thing here was Point Per Play--Mizzou had no hope of a big play in the passing game all night. Power to NW'ern to that, though Chase Daniel's suddenly erratic arm had plenty to do with that too. NW'ern seemed to have the deep routes covered for the most part, and the two times they didn't (on a bomb to Jared Perry and an intermediate sideline pass to Tommy Saunders), Daniel was well off-target.
The other part to Mizzou's lack of PPP was NW'ern's lockdown tackling. I can't think of more than just a couple of plays where Mizzou ended up getting decent YAC yardage.
From last week's BTBS Preview:
Check out the Passing Downs run rates. NU has a game-plan decision to make. Mizzou is piss poor defending Passing Downs, and opponents know it--they run the ball a minuscule 23.5% of the time in those situations. NU, however, plays things conservatively, running the ball 38.9% of the time. Do they stick to their conservative tendencies, or do they open things up knowing that Mizzou has more breakdowns than a lot of other defenses?
Final verdict: NW'ern ran the ball 32% of the time on Passing Downs--almost directly between the 23.5% and 38.9% averages.
Also from last week:
No offense in the country is better than Missouri on Non-Passing Downs. They are both efficient and explosive. If NU is going to win in San Antonio, they must figure out a way to leverage Mizzou into Passing Downs
Verdict: Mizzou's success rate was decent on NPD's, but the PPP was horrendous. Seriously...how did Mizzou win this game?

Let's take a look back at what I called the keys to the game...

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

Touchdowns, not field goals. NW'ern really needed to score TDs in the red zone to keep up with Mizzou (in theory). How'd they do? Three trips to the red zone (including the OT possession), 10 points. Fail.
Dink and dunk, dink and dunk. NW'ern was very successful on-and-off with the dink-dunk strategy. The only problem was, thanks to the leg of Jake Harry, NU had to drive the full length of the field more often than not. It's one thing to dink-and-dunk consistently for 50 yards. For 90 yards? Far too difficult. We'll say this was half-success, half-fail.
Confuse Chase Daniel. SUCCESS. Chase was every bit as discombobulated as he was against Oklahoma State...moreso, really.

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Bring it. Consider this one a giant fail. They were not sharp early, and they allowed NW'ern to completely dictate the tempo of the first half. When they started playing marginally better in the third quarter, they had absolutely no margin for error, and they let NU regain the lead. But...they won, so I guess it's not a giant fail. Just a fail.
Don't miss tackles. Carl Gettis whiffed on a tackle in Q2, and it turned into a huge gain, but otherwise Mizzou wasn't too bad here. Tyrell Sutton is very tough to bring down with just one guy--the dude's got the lowest center of gravity I've ever seen...he practically runs with one hand on the ground at all times. It usually took a couple of Tigers to bring him down, but they never let him bust a long one, other than the infamous "BOO HOORAY BOO" play in the first quarter (the 40-yard screen pass on third down that ended in a fumble...only to be called back due to offsides), but that one didn't count.
Stomp the Throat. Mizzou had the dagger in their hands three times. The first time, they were up 17-16 after Brock Christopher's interception, and they went three-and-out and managed only a field goal to go up 20-16 (a lead quickly wiped out by a NW'ern scoring drive). The second time, Jeff "Most Accurate Kicker in FBS History" Wolfert pushed the game-ending FG wide right. The third time, they made it count in OT. Better late than never, but it's best not to let underdogs hang around.

In the end, though, Mizzou's playmakers made plays when they had to--Maclin's punt return, 'Spoon's overall ridiculousness, Willy Mo making the big play on his last two plays in a Tiger uniform, Chase Coffman making a couple catches he had no business making, Jeff Wolfert nailing three FGs, Stryker Sulak coming up with a couple huge sacks--, and they won the game, even if they did miss the throat a couple times.

Summary

Illinois
SEMO
Nevada
Buffalo
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Texas
Colorado
Baylor
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
~~Oklahoma~~

It's been a fun BTBS season. I've taken these numbers to Football Outsiders, and they're starting to grow into something pretty cool. I hope more people understand them and use them to supplement what they see with their eyes. In the comments section below, feel free to let me know what suggestions you have to make this BTBS piece better and more useful (other than maybe a permanent link to the BTBS glossary somewhere...I keep meaning to do that...).

Anyway, despite the disappointment involved in a couple of unforeseen losses, this really was a fun season overall, and it doesn't take a BTBS post to figure that out. Chase Coffman's nunchuk thrusts...Jeremy Maclin starting and ending the season by becoming the Human Momentum Swing on neutral fields...Sean Weatherspoon starting and ending the season by refusing to let the Mizzou defense crumble...Chase Daniel completing 20 consecutive passes against Buffalo...absolutely destroying Nebraska in every way, shape and form, and in Lincoln to boot...clobbering and embarrassing Colorado...winning a second straight North title...in the end, not quite as many amazing moments as in 2007, but we've been getting spoiled. I hope to be analyzing a lot more wins than losses once more in 2009...

Poll

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

27 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

46 votes

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

3 votes

Why choose? All of the above!

22 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Jeff Wolfert

Hawk Talk: Border War Tailgate Edition

This Week's Game

Mizzou 2009, Part Thirteen: Special Teams

Special Teams

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Missouri

Offense (returning starters: 5)

Defense (returning starters: 4)

Special Teams

Key losses

Season Forecast

Predicted order of finish

2009 Mizzou Football Preview Series

The Greatest Win - FINALIST #1

The Greatest Win in Mizzou History

Bevo's Daily Roundup - August 12, 2009

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

The South

The North

Baylor: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Special Teams

Coaching

OVERALL

Chiefs Will Have a Bunch of Visits on Friday

Remembering the Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri(30)

NW'ern(23)

What Had to Happen for Northwestern to Win

What Had to Happen for Mizzou to Win

Summary

Who was the true Alamo Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Maclin (punt return TD, game-winning TD)

Sean Weatherspoon (seemingly had a hand in every good play and hard hit)

Jake Harry (pinned Northwestern deep 4 times, allowed MU to dominate the field position game)

Why choose? All of the above!

Missouri
(30)

NW'ern
(23)