SB Nation - Chris Brooks

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Jon Johnston — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:03:22 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

I know one of our guys is somewhere down at that end of the field.... here goes.....

Before I start, let me note that it's always an easy proposition to suggest firing people, especially when you're not the one that has to pull the trigger. If you've read my writing long enough, you know that I have a weak spot for firing people - I'm not part of the crowd that's constantly asking for someone to be shot in the head. It's too easy a solution, although I admit, a popular one.

I like the Shawn Watson's philosophy of a "multiple offense". I'm not ignorant of the fact that a powerful running attack is part of Nebraska's heritage, but the ability to shift into a spread and use the zone read and spread option plays give us a huge advantage over our opponents - we just didn't execute them well this season.

I disagree with the notion that Nebraska can't recruit skill position players that can run anything other than a power running game. If Bill Callahan could recruit decent quarterbacks (Zac Taylor, Joe Ganz) and receivers (Maurice Purify, Nate Swift), then why can't this staff?

You can write off some of the offensive problems as turnover in players, but only some. Still, the West Coast offense is largely dependent upon timing and that timing has to be developed between a quarterback and his receivers. We knew it would be tough to replace Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen the difficulties Watson faced early in the season when the receivers were not performing as well as was needed. Menelik Holt started the first five games, then disappeared along with Curenski Gilleylen and Chris Brooks. Holt had 15 receptions for 175 yards, none after the Iowa State game. Brooks had 13 receptions for 177 yards, but none since Texas Tech when he had five receptions for 66 yards to lead the receivers. Gilleylen had 16 receptions for 299 yards, none after Iowa State.

They were replaced by Khiry Cooper and Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie finished the regular season with 13 receptions for 129 yards, with 12 of those receptions coming after Iowa State. Cooper's receptions were split throughout the season, as he finished with 13 receptions for 80 yards, with seven coming after Iowa State.

The only consistent receiver all season was Niles Paul and even he had problems (turnover at the goal line, Iowa State). Paul finished with 36 catches for 673 yards to lead the receivers, having six receptions against Iowa State and 13 the rest of the season.

That level of turnover doesn't allow a quarterback to develop the much heralded "chemistry" with his receivers. Granted, Lee's accuracy didn't seem to improve over the season, so you could argue it didn't make much difference as to whom he was throwing the ball.

As for Barney Cotton, the offensive line did progress somewhat throughout the season although the offensive output did not. The number of holding calls and false starts dropped as the season went on, and the line was asked to do a lot with defenses stacked against them to stop the run.

Add to that a general lack of depth. Jacob Hickman played well at center, and Ricky Henry started every game at right guard (the position that was unsettled before the season began). Marcel Jones and D.J. Jones played in rotation at right tackle while Mike Smith started every game at left tackle. Derek Meyer started when Keith Williams was injured, then Williams took over the starting left guard position for the final ten games. The loss before the season of Jaivorio Burkes at tackle and incoming freshman Brent Qvale certainly didn't help the depth issue. Off the top of my head, what we didn't see is the level of in-game rotation that we've seen in past seasons. (I"ll look into this more in the off-season.)

I suspect that most people would like to see Cotton fired because of his association with failed coaching regimes of the past (Solich at Nebraska, McCarney at ISU) rather than knowing much about offensive line coaching. In his defense, keep in mind that, other than Ricky Henry, these are still Bill Callahan's offensive linemen (In other words, Callahan's preference for size over speed still plagues the offense).

Going back to Watson, I'm not 100% sure what to think, other than he got hit with a perfect storm this season - a new starting quarterback, inconsistent receivers, and an offensive line that, well, had its problems. Add to these the fact that one quarterback left before the season started (Patrick Witt) while another was lost to injury at the start of the season (Kody Spano). Running back depth was severely hampered by dismissal (Quentin Castille) and injury (Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead).

A counter argument would point out that every team has to deal with injuries and then list all of the teams that did well despite them. For that, I have a response: Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with firing a coach, especially an offensive coordinator, is that you're going to throw away a year while the new guy implements his system. The counter argument here (I assume) is to bring in someone who runs a much simpler offense, so easy that you and I and a trained monkey can run it. Or perhaps magic happens and everyone instantaneously learns the new offense by having chips implanted in their brains or something like that. (If you're voting for a simplified offense, I vote for Texas Tech's then, because they replace quarterbacks and receivers year after year and seem to get the same fantastic results.)

So, give me your answer to the title question. Does one of these guys need to answer for this season? Or maybe both?

Husker Report Card: Texas Tech

Husker Mike — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:47:42 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Texas Tech lineback Daniel Howard shows Zac Lee how to move a team downfield.(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Browse more photos »

Almost as fun as watching games like yesterday's 31-10 loss to Texas Tech is doing the post-game report card. I think I'll probably enjoy my upcoming visits to the doctor and dentist more. A lot has been said yesterday and today about the Huskers performance, and I'm trying to keep an open mind on what the problems are. As usual, your opinions are welcome and hopefully we'll find something to agree on.

This week's report card is going to be formatted different than usual, in that I'm going to go from areas of greatest concern to areas of lesser concern. Yep...that's right, we're saving Suh for last.

OL: It's been often said that it all starts up front...and yesterday, it never got out of neutral. The tackles were ill-able to deal with the wide splits employed by the Raider defensive ends, and they came hard from the outside to pressure Zac Lee. I tried to remember bad plays by offensive linemen, but after a while, I lost track as there were so many. I had no intention to sit there and take notes in the stands for this, and that's the last thing I want to do. Adding insult to injury was all of the penalties. I'm going to give Ricky Henry a bit of a pass on his personal foul penalty; it was a dumb, dumb move that really hurt the team, but it might have been the most aggression we saw out of this bunch yesterday. The grade: F

IB: This isn't an indictment of the I-backs, but rather a reflection of the lack of depth at running back. Roy Helu was forced to improvise so much, I expected Drew Carey to appear at times on the HuskerVision screen to offer up another wacky scenario. "Whose Line is it Anyway?" Unfortunately, it's ours. Now that Rex Burkhead is out and Helu continues to be plagued by shoulder problems (labeled "chronic" by Shawn Watson), where do the Huskers turn next? Austin Jones was completely ineffective, though Marcus Mendoza did ok late as Nebraska went to the air. One curious decision this week was to burn the redshirt of Dontrayevous Robinson on special teams. He entered the mix last week, and if you were going to play him, why not get him on the field at I-back? The grade: Incomplete. Helu would have gotten a B if he could have finished the game.

WR: With the depth problems at I-back limiting the running game, you had to hope that the receivers would step up their game. And they didn't. Niles Paul had a devastating mental error by failing to realize his fumble wasn't an incomplete pass. Lee needed his receivers to break free to open up the game...and they didn't for the most part, with the exception of Chris Brooks. This spring, we raved about the depth at tight end, and I just don't understand why the offense doesn't try to use the tight ends more. Mike McNeill is a proven weapon, and Kyler Reed and Ben Cotton look potent as receivers as well. But for yesterday, these guys get a big F.

QB: The biggest criticism I have about Zac Lee's performance yesterday is that his longest throw of the day also was his final throw; out the back of the end zone on 4th and goal. All day long, it was short routes and screen passes, never challenging the secondary. Whether that was by design, or because Lee wasn't reading his receivers and the defense correctly, or if the receivers weren't getting open isn't known...and is only known by the team. Lee had some nice bootleg runs that gained positive yards, but he still showed a knack of being hesitant at scrambling. He fired one throw and third and short that ended up incomplete when he could have continued upfield and easily gained 10 yards plus the first down. Horrible decision that brought the punt team onto the field. But later in the second half, he ducked up field, got stopped two yards short of a first down, then turned and lunged to get the first down. Great run and great second effort...but too little, too late. Cody Green came in, and I hate to tell the fans clammoring for Green to start next week that Green played worse than Lee yesterday. Green did find Khiry Cooper for Nebraska's lone touchdown, which was a positive. He could have had another touchdown if Curenski Gilleylen could have hauled in that long pass, but that pass was tipped twice by Tech. A lucky bounce could have resulted in a touchdown because of a poor throw that really should have been intercepted. Another bad call erased yet another Green interception. Should Green start next week? Not on the basis of this week's performance, but perhaps in another context. I would assume that coaching staff is going to reevaluate their offensive approach and figure out what this team does best. If Cody Green better fits that approach, then Green should start. If Zac Lee better fits that approach, then Lee should start. The grade for the two quarterbacks: D

Secondary: On some of those quick strikes, it's almost impossible to defend unless the defender is locked up early on the route, which runs the risk of getting burned later. Certainly that explains some of the yardage on the early drive. Later drives were assisted by defensive misplays, especially right before halftime. Pass interference calls against the secondary helped Tech score two touchdowns as well. Not a stellar performance, but not horrible either. Grade: B-

Linebacker: Will Compton misplayed Baron Batch on Tech's opening touchdown, and was replaced by Phillip Dillard, who played great the rest of the way, except when he jammed his hand. But in the dime package, linebackers were off the field most of the day. Grade: A-

Defensive Line: I don't know what else the line could have done. Steven Sheffield was most effective when he was firing immediately after the snap, as the Tech offensive line was in full retreat dealing with Ndamukong Suh and company. The wide splits left some gaps late in the game on running plays, but the defensive line was playing outstanding yesterday, with the exception of a few penalties. Grade: A-

Overall: F The defense did much of their job yesterday, holding Tech to 259 yards. But the completely nonexistant offense made this a failing grade.

Elsewhere in College Football

Kansas: F The Jayhawks somehow found a way to lose to Colorado. Is the North this bad?

Missouri: D+ Well, the least embarassing loss by a North team, for what it's worth.

Kansas State: A+ Holy cow...where did THAT come from?

Texas A&M: 0 Mike Sherman = Bill Callahan 2.0 .

Iowa: A The Squawkeyes don't pass the eyeball test for a top-ten team...but they haven't had the massive inexplicable screwup like most of the other contenders. They are this year's Penn State: undeserving of their spot in the ratings, but there by default.

College Football on TV: A Let's face it, if you didn't have a vested interested in a game, there were great battles all over the place yesterday with upsets a plenty. Great drama and excitement wherever you turned the dial.

Poll

Rather than rate the overall performance of the Huskers, which position is Nebraska's greatest concern.

Offensive Line. It all starts up front and without some production out front, it doesn't matter who else is playing.

186 votes

I-Back. Somebody needs to emerge other than Roy Helu.

6 votes

Wide Receiver. Flashes of brilliance...and long stretches of mediocrity.

25 votes

Quarterback: They are the leaders on the field, and this is a leadership issue.

98 votes

Secondary: Needed to force a turnover yesterday, and didn't.

0 votes

Linebacker: Could have prevented Tech's first touchdown.

0 votes

Defensive Line: If Suh would have just sacked Sheffield on every play, we wouldn't have had to worry about the offense!

10 votes

325 votes | Poll has closed

Matchups :: Nebraska Cornhuskers Edition

Seth C — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:00:55 -0000

Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2, 1-1)

vs.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1, 1-0)

Game Information:
October 17, 2009 :: 2:30 p.m. CST :: Weather: Lincoln, NE
TV: FSN :: Radio: Affiliates :: Game Cast: Fox Sports

The figures next to the team name are, in order: yards per game / national rank / conference rank.

Texas Tech Passing Offense vs. Nebraska Passing Defense

Texas Tech (443.50 / 2 / 1): QB Steven Sheffield has been electric in two games for Texas Tech, albeit he's done it against two teams that aren't top 25 teams, like Nebraska. In 1.5 games for the Red Raiders, Sheffield is 53-70 for 780 yards, 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Not to be too critical, but Sheffield's interception on Saturday night seemed like a play where Sheffield had determined where he was going to go as the play was snapped. That cannot happen against Nebraska. Tramain Swindall has become this team's playmaker amongst the receivers, averaging 92.8 yards a game and 19.33 yards per catch. The rest of the group is rounding out their roles. I think I mentioned last week that Texas Tech would need at least 1 receiver to step up their game, and right now, Swindall is in a zone. The bigger the threat that Swindall is, the easier it becomes for Detron Lewis, Alexander Torres and Lyle Leong. And this doesn't even take into account Jacoby Franks big night (3 receptions, 99 yards and 1 touchdown) against KSU. Quite simply, there's a lot of receiving threats out there and Sheffield is finding them. There's no doubt that the offensive line has looked better in the last two games, in part because Sheffield's mobility has allowed him additional time, but this unit still leads the conference in sacks allowed at 13 and must play like a cohesive unit. Perhaps the matchup of the night will be RG Brandon Carter and the below-mentioned Suh.

Nebraska (162.60 / 14 / 1): The Cornhusker pass defends begins and ends with DT Ndamukong Suh, who may be the best player in college football right now, and has an unbelievable stat line: 32 tackles (leads team), 5.5 TFL (leads team), 3 sacks (leads team), 7 passes broken up (leads team) and an interception. Suh is an absolute dominate interior defender and to think that Texas Tech's offensive line is going to control Suh to an extent would be wishful thinking. The pass defense is 14th in the nation and have played prolific passing teams such as . . . Missouri, in a rain-storm. In other words, much like Kansas St. last week, the Cornhuskers haven't really played a team that's truly proficient passing the ball other than the Tigers. And to give Nebraska credit, they held Blaine Gabbert to 17-43 for 134 yards and 2 interceptions. I think you'll see a lineup of Prince Amukamara and Alfonzo Dennard at cornerback and Matt O'Hanlon and Larry Asante at safety. Keep in mind that Nebraska has a distinct advantage that other Texas Tech opponents haven't had, which is a dominant player up front. Nebraska has broken up 25 passes during the year and had 17 quarterback hurries. That's 42 pass plays that have been affected by the secondary or the defensive line.

Verdict: This is the strength of the Texas Tech offense and the offense is clicking.

Texas Tech Rushing Offense vs. Nebraska Rushing Defense

Texas Tech (78.00 / 114 / 12): Baby steps. The Red Raiders went from the worst rushing offense in the NCAA to the 114th worst rushing offense, all in one week. But there's progress there to those of us who watch closely. I mentioned after the game on Sunday that the running backs rushed for 182 yards on 21 carries. That's an 8.67 yard per carry average and for a team that's absolutely struggled to garner any sort of run game, the fact that this team has pulled itself up a bit, especially after having such a tough time establishing anything resembling a running game is encouraging. The truth be told though is that the Red Raiders hae steadily improved the rushing game after a somewhat slow start (73 and 60 yards in their first 2 games). It's still tough to be sure what offensive line coach Matt Moore will do, although you would expect that unless something drastic happened, he would settle on the offensive line that would be the most successful against Nebraska, which was to start Lonnie Edwards at LG rather than Chris Olson, who Moore may be figuring will need to give multiple positions a break against the Cornhuskers. The more I think about this idea, the more I like it.

Nebraska (110.80 / 33 / 5): Nebraska is sitting 5th in the conference, although Nebraska has been a team that you could run on (i.e. there's yards to be gained), but the difference is that they are yielding few points on the ground and allowing less than 5 yards a rush. In addition to all-world Suh, the defensive line is rounded out by Barry Turner and Pierre Allen at defensive end and Jared Crick joins Suh up front. I'm not sure how much the linebackers will play on Saturday and would guess that Pelini will adjust with an additional defensive back, which should, in theory, open things up for the Texas Tech running game. When Nebraska is in their base package, I think you'll see Phillip Dillard, Will Compton and Sean Fisher. This is a stout run defense, and last year, I think you might see a defense more focused on the run as Texas Tech and Baron Batch ran for 137 yards on 23 carries and 3 touchdowns.

Verdict: Nebraska, hands down.

Nebraska Passing Offense vs. Texas Tech Passing Defense

Nebraska (236.60 / 44 / 7): I'll be the first to admit that I'm pleasantly surprised by Zac Lee's passing efficiency thus far this year. Lee's been very effective and probably most important to a Pelini offense, he doesn't turn the ball over, with only 3 interceptions this year to 10 touchdowns. Lee's not prolific as his biggest game this year was 340 yards against Arkansas St. A very balanced group of receivers lead the way for Nebraska, including receivers Paul Niles, Curenski Gilleylen, and Chris Brooks. TE Mike McNeill is a receiving threat as he's caught a pass every game thus far this year, but the truth is that the 3 receivers mentioned above are the main threats for Nebraska. Nebraska is 10th in the country in sacks allowed, giving up only 4 all year. Other than RT Marcel Jones, the Nebraska offensive line is a veteran group, including LT Mike Smith, LG Keith Williams, C Jacob Hickman and RG Ricky Henry. We're looking a the short passing game, keeping the Texas Tech offense off of the field and that can be so painful to watch.

Texas Tech (242.50 / 92 / 11): Texas Tech has really struggled here, and this may be an indication that Texas Tech played some proficient passing teams early in Texas and Houston (although the killer game was 316 to New Mexico). Still, this unit has been a little up and down, giving up yards, but not necessarily points. Despite the yardage given up, Texas Tech leads the conference in passes defended, including 33 passes broken up and 4 interceptions. Perhaps part of the reason is that the secondary hasn't been healthy in weeks, as SS Franklin Mitchem was out early in the season, FS Cody Davis was out last week, and LaRon Moore missed almost the entire game last week. This has forced two freshmen, S Will Ford and CB D.J. Johnson to step up their game. Also sitting a-top the conference is Texas Tech (along with Oklahoma) with 18 sacks for the year. Same as the secondary, much of this has been done with players that no on else in the conference would recognize. I've said it before, but it bears repeating, this group isn't as physically gifted as others, but they will out-work out and it seems that this unit gets more sacks late in the game. It's constant pressure.

Verdict: Statistically, I feel like I have to give this to Nebraska.

Nebraska Rushing Offense vs. Texas Tech Rushing Defense

Nebraska (168.00 / 43 / 8): When I first started to look at the numbers, I was surprised that Nebraska was only 8th in the conference in rushing. I was expecting a bit more. RB Roy Helu, Jr. is 13th in the nation in rushing, and was a bit under the weather against Missouri last week. Helu had a monster game against Virginia Tech (169 yards on 28 carries) and that's the sort of thing that bothers me about what Nebraska is capable of on any given night. There's not much behind Helu as true freshman, and DFW guy, Rex Burkhead is seeing the most significant carries behind Helu. Right now, Burkhead is a change of pace sort of back, getting 5 or 6 carries a game, although he's fairly effective.

Texas Tech (107.17 / 28 / 4): I'm shocked by those numbers and I'll keep repeating this and hope that it becomes true, but one of the hallmarks of a team that does well is a good to great rush defense. Much like most other things this early in the season, you can partially blame opponents, but thus far, the Red Raiders have only allowed a little over 100 yards a game. The DT's Colby Whitlock and Richard Jones have quietly been very solid and give plenty of credit to a linebacking corp of Brian Duncan, Bront Bird and Marlon Williams that seem to be getting better game by game. You would think that Duncan and Bird would be tailor made for Nebraska and it will be interesting to see if Whitlock, Jones and Victor Hunter, to an extent, will be able to allow the linebackers to scrape and make plays.

Verdict: Seems strange, but the stats play the winner out here.

Texas Tech Special Teams vs. Nebraska Special Teams

Texas Tech: Freshman P Ryan Erxleben has been a breath of fresh air, handling 14 punts on the year, but being able to pin a few inside the opponents 20 yard line is a nice weapon have, especially in a game that could come down to field position. You'd like to see more consistency from K Donnie Carona kicking off, but he's still 6th in the conference and Matthew Williams hasn't had to kick a lot of field goals, but he has been solid in PAT's (34/35) ending the horror that was 2008. Texas Tech hasn't been spectacular returning punts and tried WR Austin Zouzalik for a number of games, but switched to CB Jamar Wall last week. Wall might be a bit more daring, but Zouzalik is solid. The Red Raiders are 2nd in the conference in kickoff returns, led by true freshman RB Eric Stephens.

Nebraska: P Alex Henry is 6th in the conference in punting. Much like Texas Tech, there's nothing really spectacular there. PK Alex Henery is clutch, making 8 of 9 field goals this year and making all of his PAT's. WR Niles Paul is returning punts, and again, like Texas Tech, aren't lighting the world on fire and as far as kickoff returns, Niles is again, mediocre (59th in the county and 9th in the conference).

Verdict: These teams are about as even as you could be for the most part, with slight advantages in one category over another. PUSH

Revisiting the Keys to Victory Over Mizzou

Jon Johnston — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:52:55 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Zac Lee tossed his third touchdown pass of the game to Mike McNeill. Last week I said Helu would win the game for us. Instead it was Zac Lee in the passing game.

Browse more photos »

Each week I post an article containing three keys to victory over the upcoming opponent. This past week, I decided that using turnovers and the concept of "getting physical" were too easy - you could state these in pretty much every game in college football and you'd be correct. The team winning the turnover battle and that wins the line battle (the area most responsible for "getting physical") is the winner in a wide majority of contests.

The rain that poured down on Faurot Field made last week's game unique. I don't know of another game I've ever watched in which the weather was so relentless. If that weren't enough, power problems robbed the Missouri crowd from generating as much energy they might have had otherwise - think of Nebraska's Memorial Stadium if there were no tunnel walk to amp up the crowd to start, and no prompting from the giant screens for cheering.

Given that, it's hard for anything to hold true to what you thought it would be going into the game.

Stop the Big One!

What I said:

So far this season Missouri has managed 15 pass plays of over 25 yards, compared to 11 for Nebraska. Of those 15, four have gone to Danario Alexander (with a long of 74 yards), six to Jared Perry (with a long of 48 yards) and four to Wes Kemp (with a long of 49 yards).

The point was that the Tiger offense had feasted on big plays for their first four wins. The weather had a huge affect on each team's offensive production, but Missouri managed only one play over 25 yards - a 38-yard pass play to Jared Perry near the end of the second half. Prince Amukamara fell down on that play, making it an easy catch for Perry. It's surprising there wasn't more of that happening given the conditions. The catch lead to the Tigers' only touchdown, giving them a two-score lead.

I'd say the Husker defense did a darned good job here. With Dejon Gomes interception and 40-yard return, they made a big play of their own, one that was equal to Perry's gain, perhaps more than equal since it stuck a dagger into the heart of the Tiger (how's that for cheese?).

Stop the Run (with Only Five)!

What I said:

The Husker defense will start the game seeing if they can stop Missouri's (somewhat) anemic running game with their four defensive linemen and a linebacker.

The Husker defensive line showed why they are the strength of this year's team. Derrick Washington had one long run of 23 yards, on the final play of the game. Take away that gain, Washington ends up with 19 carries for 57 yards, and the team has 68 total yards on the ground. That's a pretty dominating performance (Captain Obvious here).

It was the same in the passing game. Nebraska spent most of the night rushing four because there was little need to blitz. The advantage that gives our defense can't be overstated. Perhaps it's best described by asking you to remember how you felt when Ndamukong Suh intercepted the pass in the middle of the field.

Helu Stays Average

What I said:

Be honest with yourself, for once in your life. Do you really trust Zac Lee to win this game for Nebraska? Or are you going to be like me - hold your breath whenever he's throwing the ball because his only road start to date was as unpleasant as an infection. Until Lee has a good road game (which please let it be tonight!), expecting him to win a game is wishful thinking. Until then, Lee represents unrealized potential - not something you can count on.... yet.

My point was that it would be Helu that carried us to victory. Unfortunately, Helu had a hard time running against a Missouri defense that was stacked to take away the run game. Helu's longest run was a first-quarter 13-yards scamper until the fourth quarter when he broke free on a 41-yard run that would ultimately seal Missouri's fate as it lead to the final score. Helu doubled his game output in two runs - finishing with 88 yards on 18 carries for a 4.89 yard per carry average.

Helu looked slow and tentative throughout much of the game. Part of the reason for that can be put on the offensive line as Husker Mike alluded to in his post-game report card.

Ultimately, it was Zac Lee that won the game. His long pass to Niles Paul was perfect in horrid conditions, as was his second touchdown pass to Paul. His third touchdown pass was executed perfectly as he waited long enough for Mike McNeill to clear his block and get open before lofting him the ball.

Husker fans can complain about Watson's play selection - I can assure you that I did - but the game turned out okay. Perhaps Watson was lucky, but his play call on the long Paul touchdown wasn't luck. He got the safety to bite up on an under route at the exact moment that something good needed to happen. Only thing I'd say to Watson is - "Hey, next time maybe don't wait so long, eh? You're aging me, man!"

Who's The Weather Benefit The Most?

Right before the game I did another article regarding the weather conditions, asking "Who's the Weather Benefit the Most?". The conclusion I came to was - the team that was most mentally tough and didn't let the conditions bother them.

For three quarters that team was Missouri. A couple of big plays later and suddenly it was Missouri's turn to wonder what happened. Keep in mind those touchdowns to Paul came only after he, Menelik Holt and Curenski Gillylen were benched in favor of Antonio Bell, Brandon Kinnie, Chris Brooks, and Khiry Cooper.

Obviously the coaches sent the right message - perform or get out. It's an asset to have coaches like that - the previous staff would have kept doing the same thing over and over, wondered why it didn't work and then later blame the players. That's why they're gone. Perform or get out applies to everyone.

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

Bill C. — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:30:14 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

I'm plowing through the data a little faster this week...hooray! We start with the most, uhh, interesting game of the week. "Interesting" from a BTBS perspective anyway.

Week 1 BTBS Box Scores

Toledo 54, Colorado 28

	Colorado	Toledo
Close %	45.3%
Field Position %	55.2%	44.4%
Leverage %	57.5%	66.7%

TOTAL
EqPts	32.3	44.3
Close Success Rate	44.4%	46.9%
Close PPP	0.21	0.82
Close S&P	0.654	1.291

RUSHING
EqPts	7.5	21.1
Close Success Rate	58.8%	55.6%
Close PPP	0.29	0.69
Close S&P	0.882	1.245
Line Yards/carry	4.18	3.97

PASSING
EqPts	24.8	23.2
Close Success Rate	31.6%	35.7%
Close PPP	0.13	0.99
Close S&P	0.450	1.350
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.6% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	44.0%	47.6%
PPP	0.38	0.60
S&P	0.817	1.074

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	32.4%	42.9%
PPP	0.36	0.91
S&P	0.688	1.342

TURNOVERS
Number	4	2
Turnover Pts	17.8	6.2
Turnover Pts Margin	-11.6	+11.6

Q1 S&P	0.669	1.741
Q2 S&P	0.638	0.874
Q3 S&P	0.882	1.262
Q4 S&P	0.799	0.997

1st Down S&P	0.699	0.985
2nd Down S&P	0.863	1.212
3rd Down S&P	0.616	1.409

Projected Pt. Margin	-23.6	+23.6
Actual Pt. Margin	-26	+26

So Colorado wins the field position battle, forces quite a few passing downs...and loses big. The two big causes: 1) Toledo's big play, and 2) Colorado's 57.5% leverage rate was worse than anybody's in this post except UTEP and Idaho State.
Really, Colorado? You're going to give up 0.82 PPP against Toledo? Think about that. For every five plays Toledo ran, they basically scored four points. Against Idaho State, Oklahoma actually only averaged 0.80 PPP. AGAINST IDAHO STATE.
Interesting rushing figures for Colorado. Darrell Scott had a pretty good game, but matching The Beef's observations made during the game: he was efficient, but where's the speed? A 0.29 PPP is below average, especially considering how good the success rate was, and especially considering the 4.18 line yards per carry. He was getting what the line gave him, maybe making one other person miss, and that was it. Colorado is desperate for a big-play aspect to the offense, and if they can't get it from their 5-star running back, where's it coming from? I would take Darrell Scott on my team by all means, but at this moment he's at best the fourth-best running back in the North behind Derrick Washington, Roy Helu Jr., and Jake Sharp. Without top-end speed, I don't see that changing.
Even with efficient running, Colorado couldn't stay out of Passing Downs to save their life. I'm obviously not a big fan of Cody Hawkins (who is?), but you can't put him in those types of situations and expect any success.
Toledo had a 0.99 PPP throwing the ball. Every time they threw the ball, they basically scored a point. Ugh.
There was a pretty fluky aspect to Toledo's offensive production, however: they were really good on Standard Downs and great on Passing Downs. A little too good. And yes, that's the closest I can come to a silver lining for Colorado: their defense is terrible, but it's not quite as apocalyptic as it looked on Friday. The Dan Hawkins Era, everybody!
A 1.409 3rd Down S&P for Toledo. Wow.

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35

	UH	OSU
Close %	94.1%
Field Position %	61.3%	50.0%
Leverage %	82.5%	68.1%

TOTAL
EqPts	33.7	29.9
Close Success Rate	58.8%	44.4%
Close PPP	0.42	0.39
Close S&P	1.009	0.835

RUSHING
EqPts	10.5	16.7
Close Success Rate	50.0%	37.5%
Close PPP	0.31	0.41
Close S&P	0.809	0.784
Line Yards/carry	3.26	3.09

PASSING
EqPts	23.2	13.3
Close Success Rate	65.2%	51.6%
Close PPP	0.51	0.37
Close S&P	1.162	0.886
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 5.0%	0.0% / 7.7%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	60.6%	44.9%
PPP	0.37	0.42
S&P	0.973	0.865

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	47.8%
PPP	0.68	0.42
S&P	1.179	0.895

TURNOVERS
Number	2	4
Turnover Pts	8.6	17.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+9.3	-9.3

Q1 S&P	1.025	0.533
Q2 S&P	1.327	1.059
Q3 S&P	0.729	1.153
Q4 S&P	0.873	0.830

1st Down S&P	1.018	0.938
2nd Down S&P	1.105	0.701
3rd Down S&P	0.415	1.067

Projected Pt. Margin	+15.1	-15.1
Actual Pt. Margin	+10	-10

Houston's offensive efficiency is frightening. I realize the storyline coming from this game was "Well I guess OSU's defense wasn't as good as we thought, huh?" (and OSU's clearly going through a bit of Gabbert-itis here, being overly complimented after one week and overly crushed after two), but I want no part of Houston right now. You rarely see an 82.5% leverage rate, which basically means the Cougars almost completely stayed out of Passing Downs. They had a 60.6% success rate on Standard Downs, 50.0% success rate running, and 65.2% success rate passing. Their explosiveness wasn't amazing, but they were just ruthlessly efficient, and that can't all fall on the OSU defense. I'm sure OSU had trouble getting up for this game after preparing for Georgia all offseason, but still. Houston really is a good football team. Now watch them lose to UTEP and Tulane.
Meanwhile, the loss of Kendall Hunter (who I managed to not call Lindsey that time...go me!) definitely hurt. They have one of the conference's best backups in Keith Toston, but it's still a step down from Hunter to Toston, and the 'Pokes needed much better than a 0.784 S&P running the ball, especially with how devastating Houston was offensively. They needed to play keepaway and not put too much pressure on Zac Robinson to make plays--since clearly he's not playing at 100% effectiveness right now--and were unable to do so. He did work some magic--they did better on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, but they faced way too many Passing Downs to be effective.

UL-Lafayette 17, Kansas State 15

	KSU	Louisiana
Close %	100.0%
Field Position %	52.0%	30.8%
Leverage %	64.0%	75.4%

TOTAL
EqPts	22.3	16.9
Close Success Rate	37.3%	40.0%
Close PPP	0.30	0.26
Close S&P	0.671	0.660

RUSHING
EqPts	11.4	6.4
Close Success Rate	40.0%	44.8%
Close PPP	0.25	0.22
Close S&P	0.654	0.670
Line Yards/carry	3.05	2.66

PASSING
EqPts	10.9	10.5
Close Success Rate	33.3%	36.1%
Close PPP	0.36	0.29
Close S&P	0.698	0.652
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	41.7%	44.9%
PPP	0.25	0.25
S&P	0.670	0.700

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	29.6%	25.0%
PPP	0.38	0.29
S&P	0.674	0.536

TURNOVERS
Number	2	3
Turnover Pts	9.8	15.9
Turnover Pts Margin	+6.1	-6.1

Q1 S&P	0.382	0.591
Q2 S&P	0.567	0.988
Q3 S&P	0.705	0.353
Q4 S&P	0.977	0.403

1st Down S&P	0.544	0.717
2nd Down S&P	0.751	0.559
3rd Down S&P	0.690	0.690

Projected Pt. Margin	+11.5	-11.5
Actual Pt. Margin	-2	+2

Proof that special teams matter: Kansas State not only should have won this game, but done so by double digits. And they lost. That's what happens when you miss two field goals and a PAT, and your opponent makes a 48-yard field goal for the win. That's a potential 10-point swing right there, in a game that was decided by two.
Just a brutal offensive display by both teams here. Daniel Thomas had a nice day rushing the ball (27 carries, 139 yards), but there was not enough explosiveness there to do his mediocre quarterbacks many favors. And even with Thomas rushing relatively well, KSU could not stay out of Passing Downs, which is murder for the aforementioned mediocre quarterbacks. (And I can't tell you how much it pains me to call a Coffman mediocre.)
Honestly, it was a nice comeback attempt for KSU in the fourth quarter considering how brutal the first three quarters were. They sucked it up, started playing well offensively, and actually took the lead with four minutes left, but alas, special teams screwed them in the end.

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3

	Iowa	ISU
Close %	59.9%
Field Position %	52.8%	24.6%
Leverage %	69.4%	66.2%

TOTAL
EqPts	30.4	11.5
Close Success Rate	43.2%	36.8%
Close PPP	0.36	0.17
Close S&P	0.796	0.538

RUSHING
EqPts	11.8	6.5
Close Success Rate	41.2%	55.0%
Close PPP	0.28	0.19
Close S&P	0.688	0.737
Line Yards/carry	3.51	4.30

PASSING
EqPts	18.6	4.9
Close Success Rate	44.4%	16.7%
Close PPP	0.42	0.15
Close S&P	0.864	0.317
SD/PD Sack Rate	4.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	48.8%
PPP	0.44	0.19
S&P	0.939	0.678

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	45.5%	22.7%
PPP	0.38	0.15
S&P	0.838	0.379

TURNOVERS
Number	2	6
Turnover Pts	9.2	25.7
Turnover Pts Margin	+16.5	-16.5

Q1 S&P	0.691	0.798
Q2 S&P	0.709	0.535
Q3 S&P	1.238	0.569
Q4 S&P	1.006	0.718

1st Down S&P	0.661	0.674
2nd Down S&P	1.008	0.534
3rd Down S&P	1.336	0.465

Projected Pt. Margin	+35.4	-35.4
Actual Pt. Margin	+32	-32

Hey, Austen Arnaud, your team was in not in the white jerseys. Iowa State absolutely deserved to lose, but the turnovers moved this game from "respectable loss" to "massacre."
Positive for ISU: Iowa really didn't run the ball very well. In fact, ISU actually ran a decent amount better.
Positive for ISU: ISU's offensive line cleared the way for pretty good line yardage totals and gave up no sacks. As I've mentioned a million times before, line stats are quite dependent on the skill position players (Maybe they gave up no sacks because Arnaud evaded the rush? Maybe their line yardage was good because the RBs made a little something out of nothing?) and are therefore only decent measures, not great ones, but that's still a pretty good sign for ISU.
Positive for ISU: their first-half defense was actually pretty strong, as was their first-down defense all game, suggesting very good game-planning.
Negative for ISU: everything else. Field position, turnovers, leverage, Standard Downs, turnovers, passing Downs, turnovers.

Texas 41, Wyoming 10

	UT	Wyoming
Close %	63.1%
Field Position %	48.2%	21.7%
Leverage %	74.1%	63.9%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.1	9.0
Close Success Rate	38.7%	38.6%
Close PPP	0.41	0.10
Close S&P	0.798	0.486

RUSHING
EqPts	13.5	3.7
Close Success Rate	33.3%	46.7%
Close PPP	0.37	0.15
Close S&P	0.702	0.618
Line Yards/carry	3.60	3.12

PASSING
EqPts	23.6	5.3
Close Success Rate	42.1%	34.5%
Close PPP	0.44	0.07
Close S&P	0.858	0.417
SD/PD Sack Rate	2.7% / 0.0%	6.9% / 11.5%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	52.4%	43.4%
PPP	0.41	0.11
S&P	0.937	0.545

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	22.7%	30.0%
PPP	0.50	0.10
S&P	0.730	0.403

TURNOVERS
Number	1	1
Turnover Pts	3.6	4.3
Turnover Pts Margin	+0.7	-0.7

Q1 S&P	0.433	0.566
Q2 S&P	0.759	0.256
Q3 S&P	1.268	0.591
Q4 S&P	1.049	0.482

1st Down S&P	1.040	0.520
2nd Down S&P	0.741	0.647
3rd Down S&P	0.769	0.221

Projected Pt. Margin	+28.8	-28.8
Actual Pt. Margin	+31	-31

Glad to see that my suspicions regarding disproportionate success on Passing Downs is thus far coming to fruition. Texas had a better S&P on Passing Downs than Standard Downs, and that just didn't seem very sustainable. UT has still been better than most in Passing Downs--a 0.730 S&P is nothing terrible, nor was their 0.977 from last week--but it does appear that their offense will suffer at least a bit this season simply because last season was a little too perfect.
It's not quite Missouri's per-quarter splits, but UT's quarter-to-quarter stats were pretty damn telling. They were in a major funk at the start of the game, and the blocked punt touchdown gave Wyoming a lead heading toward halftime. But thanks in part to James Kirkendoll, the 'Horns got going a bit right before half and started the slaughter in the third quarter. It was hospitable of them to give the Wyoming home crowd something to cheer about, though.
Nothing to complain about defensively for Texas. Dave Christensen hasn't, to say the least, had a lot of success against Texas in the past, and nothing really ever got going for the Cowboys. And needless to say, a 0.221 3rd-Down S&P isn't, uhh, good.

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9

	ASU	NU
Close %	49.2%
Field Position %	40.4%	42.0%
Leverage %	73.7%	75.4%

TOTAL
EqPts	14.4	33.7
Close Success Rate	44.0%	56.8%
Close PPP	0.33	0.52
Close S&P	0.768	1.090

RUSHING
EqPts	9.1	8.3
Close Success Rate	52.9%	56.3%
Close PPP	0.37	0.40
Close S&P	0.901	0.961
Line Yards/carry	3.71	4.22

PASSING
EqPts	5.3	25.4
Close Success Rate	25.0%	57.1%
Close PPP	0.24	0.62
Close S&P	0.487	1.188
SD/PD Sack Rate	11.8% / 28.6%	3.3% / 7.7%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	54.8%	53.9%
PPP	0.30	0.49
S&P	0.845	1.032

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	20.0%	64.7%
PPP	0.13	0.47
S&P	0.325	1.121

TURNOVERS
Number	1	0
Turnover Pts	4.7	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-4.7	+4.7

Q1 S&P	0.420	1.192
Q2 S&P	1.212	0.983
Q3 S&P	0.664	1.257
Q4 S&P	0.659	0.821

1st Down S&P	0.767	1.097
2nd Down S&P	0.802	1.033
3rd Down S&P	0.248	0.977

Projected Pt. Margin	-24.4	+24.4
Actual Pt. Margin	-29	+29

It's so freaking hard to accurately evaluate Nebraska's defensive line. Just like last year, so far they're great at getting at the quarterback and very mediocre in stopping the run. Their sack rates on Saturday were untouchable, but 3.7 line yards/carry is way too much for them to be giving up to the Arkansas State's of the world.
Arkansas State actually had a better success rate on Standard Downs than NU did, but they had no real hope for any big plays, and eventually NU would leverage them into Passing Downs and release the hounds. Whereas a lot of stats were relatively even here, the 1.121-0.325 difference in Passing Downs S&P and the 0.977-0.248 difference in 3rd-Downs S&P made the difference in the game. That, and a big first quarter.
Congratulations to Chris Brooks for catching his third pass of the season on Saturday. That doubles his career total.
Gotta say, I haven't been impressed with NU's rushing totals thus far. A 0.730 S&P against FAU, followed by a solid-not-great 0.961 against ASU (which should have been a lot higher considering how well their offensive line was apparently blocking)? They seem to have underachieved so far. Luckily for them, their passing game has clicked nicely. It's really hard to complete passes to 14 different receivers, but that's what Zac Lee and Cody Green managed to do on Saturday. Really, that doesn't say anything in particular about NU's WR corps--it doesn't matter what their fourth-stringers do in blowouts if the first-stringers can't come up big against real teams--but the degree of difficulty really was pretty high.

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10

	Owls	ARRRR!
Close %	59.5%
Field Position %	34.2%	71.4%
Leverage %	57.9%	68.8%

TOTAL
EqPts	13.0	46.6
Close Success Rate	39.0%	48.0%
Close PPP	0.13	0.47
Close S&P	0.523	0.951

RUSHING
EqPts	4.3	3.9
Close Success Rate	40.0%	30.0%
Close PPP	0.13	0.31
Close S&P	0.526	0.609
Line Yards/carry	2.57	2.62

PASSING
EqPts	8.7	42.7
Close Success Rate	38.1%	52.5%
Close PPP	0.14	0.51
Close S&P	0.521	1.037
SD/PD Sack Rate	8.3% / 17.4%	0.0% / 0.0%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	38.6%	50.9%
PPP	0.14	0.60
S&P	0.527	1.112

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	37.5%	50.0%
PPP	0.21	0.61
S&P	0.589	1.113

TURNOVERS
Number	2	0
Turnover Pts	9.2	0.0
Turnover Pts Margin	-9.2	+9.2

Q1 S&P	0.243	1.102
Q2 S&P	0.631	0.514
Q3 S&P	0.313	1.185
Q4 S&P	0.729	1.524

1st Down S&P	0.419	0.889
2nd Down S&P	0.803	1.168
3rd Down S&P	0.491	1.316

Projected Pt. Margin	-42.8	+42.8
Actual Pt. Margin	-45	+45

I railed on the Tech running game pretty hard last week, and they responded by...putting up an even worse Rushing S&P (0.609 after the season-opening 0.625). Line yardage improved from 1.70/carry to 2.62, but the output wasn't any better. It's nice that Taylor Potts got going--seven touchdowns is never not impressive--but in the end Tech did nothing to alleviate my concern about their offense as a whole. How are you supposed to give yourself a chance to win in Austin if you can't even pretend to run the ball?
Ironically, Leach's biggest response to the running game's struggles in week one was to simply run less. They threw 63 times and ran only 14, more than a 4-to-1 ratio of pass to run. This coming after a 40 carry, 48 pass effort against North Dakota. Maybe Cap'n Leach is just playing possum with the running game, ready to unleash a ground attack against Texas? I, uhh, doubt that.
Honestly, Tech's overall 0.951 S&P is obviously solid, but I think that defense carried the day for the second straight week. Rice couldn't run or pass successfully, couldn't stay out of passing downs, and really didn't get moving at all until the fourth quarter (and then, only marginally so). The biggest reason for Tech's big point margin was defensive domination leading to great field position. We'll obviously get a better read for the Raiders' D this week against Texas, but for now they've passed two tests with flying colors. Neither Rice nor North Dakota can light the world on fire offensively, but they held both teams to bad numbers, not just mediocre ones.

Kansas 34, UTEP 7

	KU	UTEP
Close %	51.9%
Field Position %	59.5%	6.3%
Leverage %	78.6%	56.3%

TOTAL
EqPts	37.0	10.2
Close Success Rate	42.5%	24.1%
Close PPP	0.43	0.05
Close S&P	0.855	0.292

RUSHING
EqPts	18.3	1.4
Close Success Rate	50.0%	14.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.09
Close S&P	0.929	0.229
Line Yards/carry	2.72	2.01

PASSING
EqPts	18.8	8.8
Close Success Rate	39.3%	27.3%
Close PPP	0.43	0.04
Close S&P	0.824	0.313
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 35.3%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	45.5%	44.4%
PPP	0.35	0.35
S&P	0.808	0.795

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	50.0%	14.3%
PPP	0.76	0.03
S&P	1.260	0.176

TURNOVERS
Number	2	1
Turnover Pts	9.5	5.2
Turnover Pts Margin	-4.3	+4.3

Q1 S&P	0.589	0.323
Q2 S&P	1.015	0.259
Q3 S&P	0.961	0.668
Q4 S&P	0.939	1.166

1st Down S&P	0.809	0.579
2nd Down S&P	1.015	0.684
3rd Down S&P	0.925	0.211

Projected Pt. Margin	+22.5	-22.5
Actual Pt. Margin	+27	-27

Todd Reesing said he wasn't all that sharp in this game, and the sub-40% passing success rate certainly seems to verify that. But after a pretty terrible first quarter, the Kansas offense clicked along just fine, especially considering how dominant the Kansas defense was.
As with Tech, we won't jump to any major conclusions before they play an offense with a pulse, but this was certainly pretty impressive. A 0.176 Passing Downs S&P is about as low as you're going to see. There's a reason end Maxwell Onyegbule was named Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Week this week. If this was a "Happy learned how to putt" episode with the KU defense...

...then the Big 12 North could be in trouble. But we'll see. Duke won't be much of a test at all, but Southern Miss could be. We'll see how the 'Hawk D handles the Golden Eagles.
The offensive line didn't give KU running backs quite as much to work with this week, but they still did just fine. The total rushing yardage was severely skewed by a couple of long runs from backup quarterback Kale Pick (he had two carries for 87 yards), but the combined 32 carries and 166 yards (and 3 TDs) from Jake Sharp and Toben Opurum were still pretty strong. Nothing earth-shattering (5.3 yards per carry), but decent.
Has anybody else been noticing just how close the projected and actual point margins were this week? Aside from the Missouri-BGSU game, which (luckily for MU) didn't turn on the turnover margin as much as it could have, the crazy KSU-ULL game, and the blowout game below (big-time blowouts are rarely dead-on accurate in terms of projected margins), the other seven Big 12 games were pretty much nailed.

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0

	Ouch.	OU
Close %	30.1%
Field Position %	3.5%	68.4%
Leverage %	45.6%	75.0%

TOTAL
EqPts	1.6	43.9
Close Success Rate	0.0%	56.5%
Close PPP	-0.01	0.80
Close S&P	-0.007	1.364

RUSHING
EqPts	-0.2	23.2
Close Success Rate	0.0%	54.6%
Close PPP	0.00	0.23
Close S&P	-0.002	0.772
Line Yards/carry	-0.76	3.82

PASSING
EqPts	1.8	20.8
Close Success Rate	0.0%	58.3%
Close PPP	-0.01	1.32
Close S&P	-0.012	1.906
SD/PD Sack Rate	9.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 9.1%

STANDARD DOWNS
Success Rate	11.5%	59.7%
PPP	0.02	0.63
S&P	0.133	1.231

PASSING DOWNS
Success Rate	6.5%	26.3%
PPP	0.04	0.41
S&P	0.101	0.674

TURNOVERS
Number	2	2
Turnover Pts	12.0	9.4
Turnover Pts Margin	-2.6	+2.6

Q1 S&P	-0.007	1.165
Q2 S&P	0.105	1.327
Q3 S&P	0.316	0.677
Q4 S&P	-0.003	1.268

1st Down S&P	0.103	1.271
2nd Down S&P	0.134	1.077
3rd Down S&P	0.109	0.704

Projected Pt. Margin	-44.9	+44.9
Actual Pt. Margin	-64	+64

That's right, during the 30% of the game that was actually close, Idaho State ran a total of zero successful plays. Don't really know what else to say about this one.

Husker Report Card: Arkansas State

Husker Mike — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 22:00:39 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

Ndamukong Suh welcomes ASU's Corey Leonard to Lincoln. (AP Photo/Dave Weaver)

Browse more photos »

Another week, another report card. Hard to complain about a 38-9 victory, but our job is to grade everybody individually to see where the Huskers did well, and didn't do so well.

QB: Zac Lee was almost machine-like in his efficiency, completing 77% of his passes for 340 yards and four touchdowns. He spread the field by completing passes to eleven different receivers and even showed good speed and decision making on the zone read and on some scrambles. The only negatives on his performance? Two sacks, but that might belong more on the line than on him. A-

RB: Roy Helu didn't have a lot of room to work with yesterday, but seemed to find a way to get a little extra most of the day. B-

WR: Remember those 11 receivers? Niles Paul was the star of the day, showing great speed on both his touchdown run off the reverse and the long pass that was called back due to a penalty. Also caught him ferociously blocking downfield a couple of times. Curenski Gilleylen snagged another deep pass, and Menelik Holt made a couple of great grabs on short routes. Even Chris Brooks was productive and saw some key playing time We've heard about the potential at this position for years; it's finally starting to materialize. A

OL: We know that Alex Carrington is a NFL draft prospect, but we're still talking about a defensive line that the NU offensive line outweighed by 40 or 50 pounds across the board. Yet running room was hard to find, especially up the middle. After getting stuffed on an initial 3rd and 1, Shawn Watson elected to throw the ball the rest of the game on third down. That's not good. C

DL: I think Bo Pelini will be happier with the play of Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick; they were monsters in the middle. And did you catch Suh running down ASU quarterback Corey Leonard from behind after a 15 yard gain? Tom Shatel thinks Barry Turner's lost a step after his injury, though. A-

LB: Very quiet day from the linebackers, and may have been more noticed for their mistakes than anything. Based on some of the long gains, I wonder if they were out of position much of the time. Blake Lawrence had a particularly rough series in the third quarter. Will Compton seemed to have a better second half. D+

Secondary: Prince Amukamara is showing signs of becoming a shut-down corner, and chipped in with a sack as well. Amukamara and Larry Asante were solid in run support. In the third quarter, ASU quarterback Corey Leonard curled up in a fetal position to avoid Eric Hagg coming hard on a blitz. Hagg's reputation as a hard hitter seems to preceding him. A-

Coaching: It looks like Watson and Lee feel comfortable to open up the whole playbook on offense; that'll be a good thing as Nebraska starts playing BCS conference opposition. The Pelini brothers called up just enough blitzes and coverages to keep the Wolves out of rhythm. B+

Overall: B Another solid performance, with good things to feel good about but still a few things to work on.

Elsewhere in College Football

Colorado Defense: 0 Not an F, a zero. 624 yards and 54 points to a MAC opponent? After a while, it was obvious they stopped even trying. Can you imagine what Big XII offenses would have put against a defense with that lack of effort?

Colorado Offense: D- In the first half, Colorado unleashed Darrell Scott who looked pretty solid early, rushing 12 times for 85 yards. But as the score mounted, the Colorado brain trust decided to put the game into the capable hands of Mama Hawkins boy...with only slightly better than expected results.

Iowa State: F Well, you did score first, but my oh my. Five interceptions and a fumble?

Kansas State: F Iowa State at least had the decency to lose to an (alleged) BCS conference opponent.

Missouri (first three quarters): F Nice comeback in the fourth quarter, but it looks like the Tiggers spent all week reading their press clippings.

Oklahoma State: F See Missouri, minus the fourth quarter.

Ohio State: A I didn't think you could do it, but you kept it competitive with USC. Congratulations, you've ensured your conference is still somewhat relevant.

Florida State: D- Almost another loss for the ACC against a 1-AA opponent.

Notre Dame: C It actually wasn't a horrible performance, but at least now we can retire the inane "Notre Dame National Champion" discussion. Like Ohio State, you'll need to settle for becoming relevant.

ESPN: F After two weeks, it's obvious you haven't even bothered to look at Nebraska's roster. Last week, the normally oustanding Ron Franklin was befuddled by Zac Lee's name. Yesterday, the ESPN Bottom Line kept reporting on the outstanding game by Lee and "Niles". I'm really hoping Paul Niles has another "Bottom Line" worthy performance next week. In the meantime, everybody who's assigned to travel to Blacksburg needs to spend the week on remedial roster memorization since it's obvious that nobody at the "Worldwide Leader" has been paying any attention to the Huskers so far. (You do realize that you are televising a Husker game this week, don't you ESPN?)

Poll

Rate the Huskers victory over Arkansas State

A Domination on both sides of the ball

7 votes

B A lot of good, and a few things to work on.

141 votes

C What a BCS conference team should do against a Sun Belt foe.

74 votes

D Way to close for a mismatch like this.

2 votes

F Should have wiped the field with these guys.

6 votes

230 votes | Poll has closed

2009 Husker Football Offensive Depth Chart Starting to Come Together

Jon Johnston — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 13:19:32 -0000

Having followed Bo Pelini for a year now, Husker fans should expect him to release a full depth chart sometime in November, just before the Colorado game. Maybe. It's an understandable position - tell some guys they're a starter, and they might think they've achieved something worthwhile and stop being as hungry as they need to be to play to their full potential.

If you're doubting the technique, let's look at it from another perspective. (NSFW - Profanity)

First prize, a Cadillac El Dorado. Second prize, steak knives. Third, well.... not much difference than what we see on the team, eh? First prize, you're starting. Second prize, you might get into the rotation. Third... there's your place on the bench.

A B C - "Always Be Closing" - a parallel to Pelini's bio on twitter - "The secret to success is constancy of purpose". In other words, if you're not working towards a goal on a consistent basis, you're not working. The Glenngarry Glen Ross comparison is simply an over-the-top representation of Pelini being angry with a less than satisfactory practice yesterday.

I promise I'll never compare Alec Baldwin with Bo Pelini again (shouldn't one of them have moved to France or something?), unless it's really necessary.

Following the tidbits that have dribbled out of camp, however, it shouldn't be too difficult to put one together. Here's what the 2009 Husker offense looks like to date:

LT     Mike Smith
LG    Keith Williams

We haven't heard too much about these positions, and last year both of these guys were solid. They should retain their positions into this season.

C    Jacob Hickman, Mike Caputo

Hickman is one of the best centers in the Big 12 - he will be a member of the starting rotation for the season, barring injury. This position is settled, has been since last season.

RG    ?????

We haven't heard much about Ricky Henry. I'm beginning to think this guy is a figment of an internet hype machine. Andy Christensen and Derek Meyer are candidates here, but don't forget spring's move with Hickman sliding over here and Caputo taking center.

Ricky Henry = steak knives? Ah, competition.

RT    D.J. Jones

You have Marcel Jones fight with D.J. Jones for that right tackle spot, which isn't so bad, because one of them is going to end up in the rotation anyway.

TE   Mike McNeil, Dreu Young, Kyler Reed, Ben Cotton

We're stocked here. So stocked you might count on seeing a number of three tight end sets in an Ace formation. If you're really wondering about all the things Shawn Watson can do with a great group of tight ends - check this and then comment here.

WR - X
WR - Z

It's Niles Paul and something like seven other guys here. Spread the ball around and see who starts making plays. It'd be good to see Chris Brooks have a great senior season, but you can bet if Menelik Holt and Will Henry don't come around that the youngster Antonio Bell and Brandon Kinnie are going to take over.

QB    Zac Lee, Cody Green

This has already been announced, much to the chagrin of Latravis Washington. There's been some questions about why Cody Green was moved to #2. The answer to that - who else is going to be #2 - has to make you realize that some Husker fans don't realize how thin this position is.

RB    Roy Helu Jr, Rex Burkhead, (Third?)

Obviously, Helu is THE guy this season. Burkhead has played well enough and show enough maturity to move ahead of Collins Okafor, Lester Ward, Marcus Mendoza, and Austin Jones. That third back must be found, however. Second place for these guys

Summary

Two units on offense remain unsettled - offensive line and wide receiver. Perhaps Pelini's motivational skills will push all players involved at those positions to the point that everyone is nearly even. This would result in a fair amount of depth, something that can't be discounted as the season goes on - hard work now may pay off in a Big 12 North title later - not necessarily because the Huskers have the greatest athletes at their position, but that they were the last one's standing.

That's my position for now. I'll think I'll hold on to that until we see the Huskers on the field.

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Offenses

Bill C. — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:00:18 -0000

Due to a number of factors--desire to use BTBS numbers right now for something other than Bowling Green analysis, annoyance at the quickly-forming "Nebraska is obviously almost back" consensus (how many times have we heard that since 2001?), etc.--I thought I'd take some time and lay out some North Division analysis based on the unit rankings* that I've been using for the BTBS previews the last two weeks.

As I've mentioned before, the unit rankings are a work in progress, but they're at least a place to start. Clearly I think Missouri's WR/TE corps was better than #25 in the country last year (meanwhile, their O-line was good, but probably not #5 in the country), but for the most part they seem like a good jumping-off point. Again, I can go into detail on this if I need to, but I'm working with the assumption that nobody cares that much about the methods. If I'm wrong, let me know.

Before we jump in, however, I'd like to post a graph. It represents each North team's point differential in their ten North division games in 2007-08. This should also be part of any jumping-off point for analysis of the North.

Mizzou went 9-1 versus the North in 2007-08, with only a last-second loss in a rivalry game marring a perfect record. Their per-game point differential was +25.8. Yes, they technically tied for North titles with Kansas in 2007 and Nebraska in 2008, but make no mistake: they destroyed the North. Kansas was 8-2, but with only a differential of +12.0. Nebraska: +1.4. Colorado: -14.4. Yes, Mizzou has lost a ton of talent, but...25 points' worth per game? 40?

Alright, with that out of the way, let's get started. Today, we look at offense. Tomorrow, defense. For each unit, I'll look at the 2008 unit rankings, try to perceive who has risen or fallen since last year, and come up with rough rankings for this year. And I'm going to try my best to keep my own personal biases out of the equation (for proof, simply look at the QB rankings).

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#11 in the country)
Nebraska (#13)
Kansas (#27)
Kansas State (#65)
Iowa State (#92)
Colorado (#113)

Missouri, ~~Kansas~~ Nebraska and Kansas State lose their starters, leaving Todd Reesing a clear #1. Everybody can agree on that. But what about after that? Austen Arnaud and Cody Hawkins return, but they were ranked very low. Conservatively, let's rank Arnaud and Hawkins #2-3, simply because they are known quantities (in Hawkins' case, too known, I think). Who's #4 among MU's Blaine Gabbert, NU's Zac Lee, and KSU's Carson Coffman (or Grant Gregory)? Taking away the junk time work that Gabbert and Coffman/Gregory have gotten, the only other thing we have to go by is recruiting profile. Gabbert was a 5-star recruit, Lee a 4-star JUCO, Coffman a 2-star, and Gregory a 2-star. I like Coffman, but for this exercise I'm trying to take my own opinions out of the equation for now, simply because I'm biased. So we're going to rely totally on my own numbers and external factors like recruiting rankings. So despite the fact that my list would look different than this, here's what we come up with:

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas State

If another picture of Todd Reesing exists, I haven't seen it.

Running Backs

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#16)
Nebraska (#20)
Kansas (#69)
Iowa State (#90)
Colorado (#107)
Kansas State (#119)

The BTBS numbers do NOT like Lamark Brown and Logan Dold, apparently. Anyway, basically everybody returns most key contributors--Derrick Washington, Roy Helu, Jr., Jake Sharp, Alexander Robinson, Darrell Scott/Rodney Stewart, Lamark Brown/Keithen Valentine/Logan Dold (though Dold may have been moved to defense). Therefore, we won't change the rankings much. I could see moving CU ahead of ISU simply because Stewart and Scott were both hurt a bunch, but again...we're trying to deal as much as possible with known quantities.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
Kansas State

From the Missourian. D-Wash: good.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

2008 Rankings

Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#25)
Nebraska (#27)
Kansas State (#48)
Iowa State (#96)
Colorado (#110)

Well, first things first: CU had one reliable weapon--Josh Smith--and he's gone. So it's safe to say they're staying #6. And with the return of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, KU stays #1. Missouri loses Maclin and Coffman, so they'll fall. Nebraska loses Swift and Peterson, so they'll fall. Iowa State returns everybody, but they don't make up enough ground. Really, I think KSU slides into the #2 spot here with Brandon Banks and Deon Murphy returning. So that leaves Mizzou vs Nebraska for #3.

Career stats for projected top three receivers and top tight end:

Missouri: Danario Alexander (78 catches, 997 yards, 8 TDs), Jared Perry (91 catches, 1148 yards, 7 TDs), Jerrell Jackson (9 catches, 98 yards), Andrew Jones (20 catches, 146 yards). Total = 198 catches, 2389 yards, 15 touchdowns, 12.1 yards per catch, one TD every 13.2 catches).
Nebraska: Menelik Holt (34 catches, 452 yards, 1 TD), Niles Paul (24 catches, 220 yards), Chris Brooks (3 catches, 31 yards, 1 TD), Mike McNeill (33 catches, 467 yards, 6 TDs). Total = 94 catches, 1170 yards, 8 touchdowns, 12.4 yards per catch, one TD every 11.8 catches).

The per-catch stats are extremely similar, with a slight advantage to NU, but Mizzou has by far the experience advantage. And if I'm giving Cody Hawkins an experience advantage...well...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Iowa State
Colorado

What If...

Offensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#5)
Kansas State (#20)
Kansas (#25)
Iowa State (#60)
Nebraska (#61)
Colorado (#102)

Offensive line rankings are based on line yards and sack rates (adjusted, as always, for strength of schedule), in case you were wondering. Anyway, Mizzou was a clear #1 in the North last year, and with the return of Tim Barnes, Kurtis Gregory, and Elvis Fisher, and the seeming emergence of Dan Hoch this spring, they will stay #1. K-State's line, led by Nick Stringer and potential stars like Clyde Aufner and Colten Freeze, actually looks pretty solid as well. Iowa State returns four OL starters and a good blocking TE in Derrick Catlett--they have the most combined returning starts in the North. Nebraska does have to replace probably their best overall OL (to me, at least) in Lydon Murtha, but their experience level is solid. Colorado's line is full of good recruits, but they were so young, thin, and injury-prone last year that there's no telling what their ceiling is. But they were so far in last place here that they'll stay there.

So pretty much everybody stays in the same order...but what to do with Kansas? They were quite far ahead of ISU and NU, but they return a mere 26 career starts, easily the lowest in the conference as a whole. This could be the offense's Achilles Heel, and with improvement possible from ISU, I'll squeeze KU between the 'Clones and the Huskers.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State
Kansas
Nebraska
Colorado

Photo by Andrew Worrall, via The Columns

OFFENSE SUMMARY

Alright, so to get a general, reasonably unscientific way of judging the talent level here, let's simply add everybody's rankings together and see what happens. Lowest number = best, obviously.

Tentative 2009 Offensive Ranking

1T. Missouri (9)
1T. Kansas (9)
3. Iowa State (14)
4T. Nebraska (16)
4T. Kansas State (16)
6. Colorado (20)

I honestly didn't know how the numbers would play out when I started that exercise, but it does make some sense. For all the loss analysts mention when talking about Missouri, it only affects the passing game side of the equation. Missouri still has the division's best running back and best offensive line, and with the right approach and play-calling, those strengths can take a large load off of Blaine Gabbert's shoulders. Plus, Gabbert does have two extremely experienced, relatively proven quantities in Perry and Alexander at WR (assuming they're healthy). I'd still give a slight nod to Kansas overall*, but there is at least some cause for optimism for Mizzou this year.

* This is 90% honesty and a 10% attempt at a jinx of Kansas. Jinx...JINX...NOONAN!

Tomorrow we look at defenses. Does Nebraska have enough of a defensive advantage to make up for a lacking offense?

2009 Spring Game Report Card

Husker Mike — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 19:09:08 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Red team quarterback Zac Lee throws during the annual Nebraska Red-White spring college football game in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, April 18, 2009. The Red team defeated the White team 31-17.(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Browse more photos »

This edition of the report card is a little more difficult than the regular report cards, since it was the Husker offense versus the Husker defense. And with so many new players on the field wearing jerseys without names, I spent a heck of a lot of time trying to figure out who was who out there, and whether plays were the result of something good or something bad. (It probably didn't help that my seats were in the nosebleed section of the north end zone...)

So here's my report card...feel free to disagree or comment otherwise.

Quarterback: A- No quarterback really made any mistakes out there. Playcalling was limited, and the green jerseys made it difficult to evaluate running ability. Zac Lee was laser efficient, while LaTravis Washington was surpringly efficient with a howlitzer for an arm. Cody Green looked fairly good as well for a guy who should have been spending a Saturday afternoon getting fitted for a tuxedo for the prom.

Running Back: B+ Quentin Castille had to face the white defense with Ndamukong Suh on the field, but did fairly well. Austin Jones looked good, but of all the young backs, I liked Lester Ward the best. What impressed me with Ward was his ability to fight for yards after contact. Collins Okafor disappointed me with his first few runs, but he showed great acceleration later on, especially on that long touchdown run.

Wide Receivers: B- The passing game was kept simple and short most of the day, so the receivers didn't have a lot to contribute. Antonio Bell had a nice catch, but I really liked Chris Brooks' ability to snare those missiles from Washington. Marcus Mendoza is going to be a weapon that can stretch the field this fall.

Tight Ends: A+ Are the Huskers loaded at tight end or WHAT? Mike McNeill emerged as a weapon towards the end of the year. Now let's add in Ben Cotton and Kyler Reed as well. Reed outraced the entire secondary on his 71 yard touchdown reception.

Offensive Line: B+ Running lanes were tough when Suh was in the game, but things opened up after he left. Sadly, without names on the backs of jerseys and numbers rolled up into their pads, it was tough from my perspective to keep track of everybody.

Defensive Line: B+ Suh is still Suh. Cameron Meredith made some nice plays early on as well. We're going to have a little more depth on the d-line this season.

Linebacker: C- With all of the new players wearing no-name jerseys, it was really tough to keep track of what was happening. The linebackers got roasted by the tight ends all day. Will Compton had a couple of nice tackles though.

Secondary: B- I really hoped I would have seen an interception, what with two first-time quarterbacks taking the majority of the snaps. P.J. Smith looks like he could become a playmaker back in the secondary.

Special teams: A- You could tell by the number of hankies that special teams hadn't been worked on much, but some nice individual efforts. Alex Henery missed wide right on a 50 yard field goal. What a bum, he's absolutely no good from that distance. He does show promise as a punter, though. Tim Marlowe had a very nice punt return late in the game.

Meteorologists: F Two weeks ago, there were predictions of a blizzard. Then, an 80% chance of rain. Instead, the sun broke through after kickoff and it was a gorgeous spring day in Nebraska.

Overall: B+ Nobody got hurt, and not a lot of mistakes out there.

Elsewhere in Spring Football

Missouri: Just 13,122 showed up, and the defense (with only 4 returning starters) dominated. Tiger fans should be worried.

Iowa State: 7,000 showed up to watch Austen Arnaud go 22 for 35 and 250 yards against the top defense. Clone Chronicles wasn't impressed.

Texas Tech: The next name to enter Tech's record books in Leach's high powered offensse: Taylor Potts. 12,500 fans showed up.

Texas A&M: 8,000 fans showed up trying to understand what the hell Mike Sherman is doing to the Aggie program. The final score: Offense 117- Defense 107. Nobody knows how it happened.

Oklahoma State: Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter didn't play, and the second half was a race to beat a thunderstorm to Stillwater.

Poll

Who impressed you more in Nebraska's 2009 Spring Game?

Quarterbacks

68 votes

Running Backs

3 votes

Wide Receivers

10 votes

Tight Ends

48 votes

Offensive Line

1 votes

Defensive Line

10 votes

Linebackers

3 votes

Secondary

3 votes

146 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Chris Brooks

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Husker Report Card: Texas Tech

Rather than rate the overall performance of the Huskers, which position is Nebraska's greatest concern.

Offensive Line. It all starts up front and without some production out front, it doesn't matter who else is playing.

I-Back. Somebody needs to emerge other than Roy Helu.

Wide Receiver. Flashes of brilliance...and long stretches of mediocrity.

Quarterback: They are the leaders on the field, and this is a leadership issue.

Secondary: Needed to force a turnover yesterday, and didn't.

Linebacker: Could have prevented Tech's first touchdown.

Defensive Line: If Suh would have just sacked Sheffield on every play, we wouldn't have had to worry about the offense!

Matchups :: Nebraska Cornhuskers Edition

vs.

Revisiting the Keys to Victory Over Mizzou

Big 12: BTBS Box Scores

Toledo 54, Colorado 28

Colorado

Toledo

Houston 45, Oklahoma State 35

UH

OSU

UL-Lafayette 17, Kansas State 15

KSU

Louisiana

Iowa 35, Iowa State 3

Iowa

ISU

Texas 41, Wyoming 10

UT

Wyoming

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 9

ASU

NU

Texas Tech 55, Rice 10

Owls

ARRRR!

Kansas 34, UTEP 7

KU

UTEP

Oklahoma 64, Idaho State 0

Ouch.

OU

Husker Report Card: Arkansas State

Rate the Huskers victory over Arkansas State

A Domination on both sides of the ball

B A lot of good, and a few things to work on.

C What a BCS conference team should do against a Sun Belt foe.

D Way to close for a mismatch like this.

F Should have wiped the field with these guys.

2009 Husker Football Offensive Depth Chart Starting to Come Together

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Offenses

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

OFFENSE SUMMARY

2009 Spring Game Report Card

Who impressed you more in Nebraska's 2009 Spring Game?

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary