SB Nation - Blake Lawrence

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

A Review of Nebraska’s Keys To Victory Over Florida Atlantic

Jon Johnston — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 13:00:22 -0000

by Dave Weaver - AP

3 months ago: In this photo taken on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, Nebraska nose tackle Ndamukong Suh (93) goes after Florida Atlantic's William Rose (46) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Lincoln, Neb. In his weekly news conference on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2009, , Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini said his team's defense against Florida Atlantic was soft.(AP Photo/Dave Weaver)

View full size photo »

Last Friday I listed three keys for victory - three of the items that the Huskers had to do to guarantee victory over the Owls. Today I'll look back and review just how they did.

Physical Dominance

I talked about the fact that Nebraska's offensive line needed to establish themselves as a physically dominant force, which they finally did at the beginning of the third quarter. The Huskers scored on a solid 67-yard drive that consumed a little over two minutes and featured some excellent runs by Roy Helu Jr. Helu ended up with some decent stats for the day - look at that 9.5 per carry average!

vs Fla. Atlantic / 9.5.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Roy Helu Jr	16	152	9.5	3	1	3	3	0

Despite the Huskers' apparent success, the play wasn't good enough for Bo Pelini who yesterday stated he felt the Husker defense played "too soft", that they didn't attack blocks and weren't crisp. Giving up 358 yards to Florida Atlantic wasn't good enough.

Discipline

I stated that we'd see a lot of screens and misdirection from Florida Atlantic on Saturday, and that's exactly what we saw in the first half. While they didn't get in the end zone, the Owls did a decent job on offense, racking up 358 total yards in the process.

There were some discipline breakdowns, in particular a second quarter play in which FAU's fullback Willie Rose was wide open for a 38-yard reception, and another in which Cortez Gent was left uncovered for a 27-yard reception. Rose wasn't fast enough to make it to the end zone, being chased down by the linebacker who missed the coverage, Blake Lawrence. The play lead to Florida Atlantic's three points.

It may be easy to dismiss a single play or two as opening game jitters, but given the performances by Kansas and Missouri last Saturday, the Huskers must improve to play mistake free football if they wish to win the Big 12 North.

Start The Stats Counter Early

The Blackshirts tallied no sacks and only three hurries Saturday, much of that due to the aforementioned screen plays, and FAU quarterback Rusty Smith getting rid of the ball quickly. While that was disappointing, Nebraska did end up at +2 in turnover margin, garnering two interceptions and a fumble while only giving up one interception in Zac Lee's first start.

Bottom line

The game was a butt-kicking, with fans and Florida Atlantic in agreement on that. But it wasn't good enough for Bo Pelini, and it wasn't good enough for the Husker players. That says volumes about the expectations that Pelini has for this team.

A question for Husker fans - do you think Pelini's "too soft" statement was true sentiment, or was it made to be used as a motivational tactic?

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00:11 -0000

Yesterday: The Offense

Before we get to the defense, an aside.

I'm in an interesting position here. Nebraska is absolutely in the North's top tier of teams (as has been covered previously, there appears to be a rather large "proven talent" divide between KU/NU/MU and KSU/ISU/CU), and if they can win in Lawrence or Columbia (or maybe even if they can't), they can take the North. As you'll read below, the defense should be incrementally better while the offense could be incrementally worse, and while there are few true stars (Ndamukong Suh, Roy Helu, maybe Mike McNeill or a defensive end), there is decent experience at RB, DL, and DB. And Bo Pelini certainly acquitted himself relatively well in year #1.

As I've mentioned previously, my problem comes with expectations and with the casual nature that national-level analysts continue to just assume that Nebraska is now "back" despite little evidence to support that. Since making the national title game in 2001, Nebraska has gone just 28-28 in conference with a point differential of -68. As means of comparison, here are the North standings in that time frame:

Big 12 North Standings, 2002-08
Team	Record	Pt. Diff
Missouri	29-27	+235
Nebraska	28-28	-68
Colorado	27-29	-104
Kansas State	25-31	+189
Kansas	22-34	-297
Iowa State	15-41	-718

(Yes, that's right--ONE North team is over .500 combined in the last seven seasons--barely--and the North is, as a whole, 44 games under .500 in that span. Granted, Iowa State is responsible for 26 of those games, but...well...Baylor and their 10-46 record still reside in the South, and the division has still managed to be 44 games over .500. Yikes.)

Anyway, the frustration here lies in the fact that, every year we get to hear about Nebraska being "back" and Colorado being a "sleeper," and yet Missouri, who has been a smidge better than both of them over a 7-year (not just 2-year) span, is pronounced dead at the first possible moment. Just odd. But the good news is, as always, this is the offseason. The real season will give us all the answers we're arguing about or getting annoyed about at the moment.

/aside

Anyhoo, time to talk defense.

Nebraska pulled off an interesting feat in 2008. While winning six of seven games to end the season, they gave up 29.1 points per game in that span (23.7 in the wins), and yet the basis for most of their North title predictions this offseason come from how good the defense is going to be. They gave up 35 points to Virginia Tech, who had the #79 offense in the country (according to S&P+). They gave up 52 to Missouri and 62 to Oklahoma...37 to Texas Tech (not bad, actually)...35 to Kansas...28 to Kansas State...an egregious 31 to Colorado (S&P+ rank: 114th)...and yet the defense is going to carry them to the North title? Never mind how disrespectful that is for Kansas (and to a lesser extent, Missouri) fans to hear...how disrespectful is that to Joe Ganz? Nate Swift? Roy Helu Jr.? These were the guys who, along with Ndamukong Suh's big plays, carried the Huskers to a strong 2008 finish.

Now, before I go any further, make no mistake: the Nebraska defense has probably the best shot at being the North's best D in the fall. The point is, it's not going to be so good that they will get by Kansas and Missouri (both on the road) simply on the heels of the dominant Blackshirts. They're not going to be that dominant. In going for only their second North title since Eric Crouch was running the show, the onus will be on not only Zac Lee and an unproven receiving corps, but also a decent-not-great defense, which alternates between experienced guys with low ceilings and inexperienced, highly-touted players. Maybe Bo Pelini will push all the right buttons, but we shouldn't assume it will happen.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 108.9 (#41)
Success Rate+: 111.9 (#23)
PPP+: 105.7 (#53)

Standard Downs S&P+: 103.9 (#51)
Passing Downs S&P+: 114.0 (#31)

Redzone S&P+: 114.4 (#23)

Q1 S&P+: 95.5 (#75)
Q2 S&P+: 121.2 (#22)
Q3 S&P+: 82.7 (#105)
Q4 S&P+: 144.3 (#2)

1st Down S&P+: 96.8 (#71)
2nd Down S&P+: 120.6 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.9 (#32)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 102.0 (#60)
Rushing SR+: 104.4 (#47)
Rushing PPP+: 98.9 (#65)

Standard Downs: 91.5 (#86)
Passing Downs: 138.5 (#15)

Redzone: 96.4 (#74)

Line Yards+: 103.4 (#48)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 112.2 (#28)
Passing SR+: 118.0 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 107.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 113.1 (#39)
Passing Downs: 105.4 (#51)

Redzone: 141.3 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#9)

As a whole, Nebraska had a pretty efficient defense in 2008, but they struggled with the big play. Their success rates were quite solid, but their PPP+ numbers were lacking. They knew how to leverage an offense into bad situations (15th in Passing Downs Rushing), but they ended up occasionally letting teams off the hook (51st in Passing Downs Passing).

Other items of note:

Thanks in part to a very strong Adjusted Sack Rate, Nebraska's strength was in defending the pass. Again, they weren't tremendous from a PPP+ perspective, but their success rates were good. As I gather more data, it will be interesting to see which one is easier to improve with experience and better execution--success rates or PPP.
Strangely, as with their offense, their redzone rushing defense was awful, but their redzone pass defense was great. You figure it out; I can't.
While they did indeed have a strong sack rate, what's with the line yardage? It seems they were good at attacking and speed, but they couldn't avoid being pushed around (or, they attacked too much, and it was easy to use their leverage against them to create running lanes?).
Bad in Q1, good in Q2. Atrocious in Q3, outstanding in Q4. Again, you figure it out.
They were mediocre on first downs but quite strong on second downs...and decent-not-great on third downs. This coincides with what was mentioned above--they were good at making a bad offensive situation worse, but they let teams off the hook a bit.

Through all of this info, something else interesting emerges. For all the seemingly-justifiable hype generated by NU's D-line, it was the Huskers' worst-ranked unit in 2008. It was a decent #42, while the linebackers were #34 and the high-efficiency-too-many-big-plays secondary was #31 (at least partially because they played against so many great passing offenses, I assume). Kind of an identity crisis here.

But regardless of the rankings, it appears that the D-line and secondary could be better, while...honestly, I have no idea what to make of the LBs.

Defensive Line

Pierre Allen is overshadowed but solid.

2008 Unit Ranking: #42 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Ndamukong Suh (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DE Pierre Allen (6'5, 265, Jr.)
DE Barry Turner (6'3, 265, Sr.)
DT Baker Steinkuhler (6'6, 295, RSFr.)
DT Terrence Moore (6'3, 285, So.)
DE Josh Williams (6'4, 245, RSFr.)
DE Cameron Meredith (6'4, 260, RSFr.)

While nobody is going to mistake this unit for that of Oklahoma, this is clearly the most proven defensive line in the Big 12 North, at least in terms of the pass rush. Ndamukong Suh has slowly morphed from inconsistent playmaker to every-down dominant (he led Nebraska in tackles last season, as a defensive tackle, and posted 19 TFLs and two huge pick sixes), while Baker Steinkuhler, if he can gain the form of a 5-star athlete quickly, could make teams pay for doubling Suh. Meanwhile, on the outside, Pierre Allen posted 10.0 TFLs of his own last year, and Barry Turner might be able to make some waves after following up a disappointing 2007 season (he was outstanding as a freshman and sophomore) with a 2008 broken leg that earned him a medical hardship.

They were great at attacking in 2008, but it was possible to push them around a bit. Bo Pelini's defense has the reputation for attacking and blitzing a lot, but the strength of the attack is limited if you struggle against the run. Derrick Washington put up 139 yards and two touchdowns against them, Tech's Baron Batch went for 97 yards on just 10 carries, and Robert Griffin posted 121 yards. In all, NU's rush defense (#60) wasn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't great. Clearly that will need to improve considerably if Nebraska is to assume a spot in the Top 25 as they are now predicted to do.

Outside of Suh, Allen, and Turner, the defensive line is thin and inexperienced, but, well, that won't matter if the starters don't get hurt. Suh is clearly a force (though he has yet to make serious noise against Missouri, knock on wood), and Allen and Turner could make for a strong pair of rush ends.

Linebackers

Missouri fans probably know the name of Will Compton pretty well already.

2008 Unit Ranking: #34 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Phillip Dillard (6'1, 240, Sr.)
Blake Lawrence (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Will Compton (6'2, 220, RSFr.)
Sean Fisher (6'6, 230, RSFr.)
Mathew May (6'1, 210, So.)
Matt Holt (6'0, 200, So.)

So...what do you actually do with this unit? You've got 27th-year senior Phil Dillard, who has made 75 tackles in two years and almost no plays. You've got former 4-star stud Blake Lawrence, who has made 23 tackles in 15 games his first two seasons and made exactly one big play: an interception in 2008. You've got new 4-star stud Will Compton, whose biggest contribution thus far in his career was to assistant coach Mike Ekeler's arm but is expected to tear things up sooner than later...and then you've got a bunch of other youngsters. In limited action, Mathew May locked down a nice TFL, forced fumble, and fumble recovery, so he may hold some potential. Same with Matt Holt, who made 14 tackles in nine games (and one start).

It's unclear how much potential this relatively young unit of LBs has, and how quickly they can be expected to fulfill said potential. Clearly, the Huskers have a lot of hope in Compton, but...well, he's not any more highly-touted than Lawrence was, and Lawrence hasn't done anything of note yet. There's something to be said for the fact that the Husker D is now in its second year under Pelini, and knowledge of the scheme and higher levels of intuition will make things better. And there's also this: the Huskers had a respectable, 34th-ranked LB corps in 2008 despite the fact that there really wasn't a big-time playmaker among Dillard, Lawrence, and departed seniors Cody Glenn and Tyler Wortman. Pelini clearly knows LBs, and even if none of these guys are All-Conference caliber, this unit at least won't be a liability.

Secondary

Larry Asante...starting safety (I have nothing in particular to say about him...he's solid)

2008 Unit Ranking: #31 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Larry Asante (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Anthony West (6'0, 205, Jr.)
S Matt O'Hanlon (5'11, 200, Sr.)
CB Prince Amukamara (6'1, 200, Jr.)
S Ricky Thenarse (6'0, 205, Sr.)
CB Alfonzo Dennard (5'10, 190, So.)
CB Anthony Blue (5'10, 185, So.)
S Eric Hagg (6'2, 205, Jr.)

The secondary is as experienced as the LB corps is inexperienced, but there doesn't appear to be as much upside. Again, they gave up a few too many big plays, but I guess that is to be expected against the offenses they faced. They posted good success rate numbers, and that helped the pass defense a decent amount. Safeties Larry Asante, Matt O'Hanlon, and Ricky Thenarse are veterans, and that's never a bad thing for your last line of defense. But they also combined for only 10 TFLs and 3 INTs. Thenarse seemed to be the biggest offender in terms of giving up the big play (at least in games I watched), but he was most capable of making some plays himself.

Meanwhile, the cornerback position seems to have more potential overall--Anthony West ended up having himself a solid sophomore season, breaking up nine passes and picking two more off. (As means of comparison, Castine Bridges had seven pass breakups from the CB position, Carl Gettis six and Kevin Rutland five.) Prince Amukamara showed some potential as well. In all, NU's secondary was their highest-ranked unit in 2008, and gauging experience levels (and strength of schedule), you can expect those numbers to be maintained in 2009.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #106 Net Punting, #21 Punt Returns, #48 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.) - 56-57 PAT, 18-21 FGs
P Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.)
KR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 41 Returns, 23.6 Avg, 1 TD
PR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 8 Returns, 10.0 Avg

Nebraska special teams in 2009 were pretty hit-or-miss. Alex Henery was an outstanding kicker--it's hard to overstate how clutch it is to beat a main rival (Colorado) with a 57-yard field goal with two minutes remaining. In all, he made 18 of 21 FGs, and he has by far the most proven leg in the Big 12 North. He will also likely be trusted to assume punting duties in 2009--NU was pretty weak here last year, and while it's never a given that a good kicker will be a good punter, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

On the returns side of things, it looks right now as if Niles Paul will be the man. He was solid in kickoff returns, scoring a clutch return touchdown in the fourth quarter against San Jose State, right after SJSU had closed NU's lead to 14-12. Take that return out of the equation, and he still averaged 22.1 yards per return, which would have been better than average. Nate Swift was the main man in punt returns last year, but Paul returned a handful and did fine with them.

Really, if punting isn't a liability, the special teams unit could be a major asset for Nebraska in close games, particularly in terms of kicking. Henery really is a stud.

Summary

Iffy offense, solid defense, solid special teams. In a division without a breakaway favorite, Nebraska has as good a chance as anybody of coming away the winner (though playing in both Lawrence and Columbia won't help their cause).

We'll take a look at projections on Friday, but for now we'll just summarize by saying that while NU's defense could be solid, I think they're at least a year away from having rock-solid personnel at linebacker, but they'll be taking a step backwards on the defensive line and in the secondary next year. It might take a little while for all the pieces to truly come together for Pelini's defense, but he's got a good defensive mind obviously, and because of that and decent personnel, they'll certainly be in the title hunt this year. I'm just not giving them anything yet.

---

Projections on Friday.

Unit Rankings: Big 12 North Defenses

Bill C. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:00:18 -0000

So yesterday we established that any discussion of Big 12 North Offenses in 2009 still revolved first around Kansas and Missouri. Now, we move on to the defense. We'll go through the exact same attempted numbers-over-biases analysis and see where that gets us.

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#26)
Nebraska (#42)
Kansas (#47)
Colorado (#58)
Iowa State (#79)
Kansas State (#96)

We all have a lot of confidence and optimism regarding Jacquies Smith, Brian Coulter, and Aldon Smith, but the facts--the known knowns--are that Missouri's DL loses three starters and will likely tumble a bit.

Nebraska returns Ndamukong Suh, and that's great. It really is. Pierre Allen's also a good rush end. Steinkuhler #19 was a big-time recruit. Et cetera. I am fully willing to believe that NU has the best D-line in the division. But let's not pretend like this is the best D-line in the conference, or the country, or anything. Most people, when they talk about how Nebraska is obviously the best team in the North now, tend to overstate the D-line's exploits a bit. But while they were 9th in the country in Adjusted Sack Rate, they were only 48th in Line Yards+ (meaning, they were great rushing the passer but thoroughly mediocre against the run). Nebraska's Rushing Defense S&P+ was 60th in the country last year. They really do probably have the best DL in the division this year, but let's rein in the expectations a bit here.

Kansas returns three DL starters from their solid unit, so they should continue to improve; meanwhile Iowa State can build around a solid pair in DT Nate Frere and DE Rashawn Parker. Kansas State returns Brandon Harold and welcomes a potential new star in Virginia transfer (well, more of a drop-out, really) Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Oh yeah, and the returning leading tackler on CU's D-line is DT Curtis Cunningham. He had 7.5 tackles in 2008. ~~Nick Nolte~~ Dan Hawkins has recruited well here, but the experienced players have little to no talent, and the talented players have little to no experience.

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Colorado

I'll be more impressed when he actually does something against Missouri for once, ahem...whoops, did I say that?

Linebackers

2008 Rankings

Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#34)
Colorado (#36)
Kansas (#49)
Kansas State (#75)
Iowa State (#98)

Sean Weatherspoon returns, so...yeah, #1 is staying the same. Nebraska has experience in guys like Blake Lawrence and 17th-year senior Phillip Dillard, and they've got young potential in guys like Will Compton. There isn't a star in the mix here, but this should be a solid unit. Jeff Smart and Brad Moehler return to anchor a solid LB unit in Boulder. Iowa State's unit still won't be very good, but it has experience in guys like Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin.

Kansas? No returning starters (beyond Arist Wright and his six career starts). Kansas State? No returning talent. I mean, you figure Bill Snyder will milk the most he can out of them, but still...

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Missouri
Nebraska
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

SPOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON...

Defensive Backs

2008 Rankings

Colorado (#13)
Kansas (#23)
Missouri (#28)
Nebraska (#31)
Kansas State (#62)
Iowa State (#109)

Due probably to their strength of schedule (they played a LOT of good offenses), Colorado's secondary actually ranked quite high in 2008. They lose tackling machine Ryan Walters, but they do return a pair of solid corners in Cha'Pelle Brown and Jalil Brown (no relation...I think?). As thin as they are at LB, Kansas is deep at DB, returning, well, basically everybody you can name. Darrell Stuckey, Justin Thornton, Phil Strozier, Chris Harris, Daymond Patterson.

That's right, Missouri clocked in at #28. Again, think of strength of schedule here. They faced every good offense in the conference except Texas Tech, plus they took on Illinois and Nevada in non-conference. Close your eyes, and continue telling yourself that they weren't as bad as you want to think. You'll sleep better at night. Regardless of how they may have been in 2008, they are certainly in flux this year. William Moore is a loss, but we didn't really maximize his talents that much anyway, I guess.

Nebraska returns basically everybody but Armando Murrillo in the secondary, so they'll hop Missouri here. K-State was pretty far back in the rankings, and while, again, Snyder will coach them up (it's hard to tell how much talent KSU actually has since their coaching was so terrible...THEY WERE SOLD A BILL OF GOODS...sorry, was channeling Beef there), they probably won't make up the gap. And...sheesh. Think of how bad ISU's secondary would have been without stud freshman Leonard Johnson!

Tentative 2009 Rankings

Kansas
Colorado
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas State
Iowa State

I'm not going to lie. I wish Darrell Stuckey were on my team.

DEFENSE SUMMARY

Add that up, and what do you get?

Tentative 2009 Defensive Ranking

1. Nebraska (6)
2T. Missouri (8)
2T. Kansas (8)
4. Colorado (11)
5. Iowa State (14)
6. Kansas State (16)

Kind of an interesting order.

Since there are three units on defense and four on offense, let's weight them equally by multiply all the defensive scores by 1.33.

1. Nebraska (8)
2T. Missouri (10.7)
2T. Kansas (10.7)
4. Colorado (14.7)
5. Iowa State (18.7)
6. Kansas State (21.3)

Special Teams

I'm going to freelance on this one. Still not making a lot of headway on special teams rankings.

2008 Rankings

1. Missouri
2. Nebraska
3. Kansas
4. Iowa State
5. Kansas State
6. Colorado

Of the four primary, most easily-definable special teams positions--kicker, punter, kick returner, punt returner--Mizzou loses three in Jeff Wolfert, Jeremy Maclin, and Jeremy Maclin. Nebraska returns a good kicker in Alex Henery and a good kick returner in Niles Paul, and they'll move up to #1. Kansas returns an average punter, a decent punt returner, and a good kicker but loses Marcus Herford at kick returner. Iowa State returns everybody from a mediocre unit, and Colorado loses returner Josh Smith while returning average punter Matt DiLallo and downright poor kicker Aric Goodman.

Bottom line here: Nebraska's special teams unit is rather proven; everybody else's is iffy. So it's like 1st place, a four-way tie for 2nd, and Colorado in 6th.

Projected 2009 Rankings

Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas State
Colorado

Coaching

I'm not even sure I want to touch this one. Gary Pinkel has led Mizzou to five bowls in six years, which, considering the recent history, is an amazing accomplishment. He has never finished below Mark Mangino's team in the standings. He just led Mizzou to their first ever North division title...and then did it again. Missouri's 30 wins in three seasons are a record. And yet he continuously gets ranked, at best, in the middle of the pack among Big 12 coaches. He did a terrible job in 2004, and he's still paying for it today, I guess. Anyway, because of the differences of opinion just with my own team's coach, I'm going to use something I used in the Illinois BTBS preview: Pythagorean Records. I will rank these coaches solely on that, and really, for everybody but Bill Snyder and Paul Rhoads, this makes sense--their abilities as it pertains to developing or recruiting talent have already been accounted for somewhat by all of the rankings above. They shouldn't get double credit. Instead, the Pythagorean record accounts for the difference between talent and execution (measured by point differential) and wins/losses.

Gary Pinkel since 2002 (I don't have 2001 in my database yet): 55-34. Pythagorean wins projection: 55.87. Difference per year: -0.12 wins.
Mark Mangino since 2002: 45-41. Pythagorean wins projection: 46.15. Difference per year: -0.15.
Bill Snyder from 2002 to 2005: 31-19. Pythagorean wins projection: 34.80. Difference per year: -0.99.
Dan Hawkins since 2006: 13-24. Pythagorean wins projection: 14.47. Difference per year: -0.82.
Bo Pelini since...well...how should we do this? One year is not a sample size, so I'm not sure I have a choice but to tack on his last two years as DC at LSU just so I can get at least a three-year sample size here. So since 2006: 32-8 (with a major asterisk). Pythagorean wins projection: 29.63. Difference per year: +0.79.
Paul Rhoads: 0-0. (Difference: 0.0!)

So even sticking Rhoads in last place because he's a first-year coach, this gives you some interesting results. Being that I'm petrified of Bill Snyder, I'm breaking my own "Numbers, not opinions" rule here and making him #1. I hate giving a second-year coach the #2 spot, but hey...whatever gets NU fans off my back.

2009 Projected Rankings

Kansas State
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa State

OVERALL

Total Projection Points

Kansas (26.7)
Missouri (26.7)
Nebraska (27.0)
Iowa State (40.7)
Kansas State (43.3)
Colorado (45.7)

So again, the point of this exercise was to figure out where the discussion should start. If you want to believe Nebraska's "back," then believe it. If you want to think Colorado really is going to break this year, feel free. If you believe that the only reason Derrick Washington and the Mizzou O-line seemed strong in 2008 was because of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman (and that any thought of Mizzou doing well in 2009 is wishful thinking and OMG PHIL STEELE THINKS YOU ARE TEH SUCK!!!), go right ahead and believe it. But those are all opinions--sticking as closely as possible to facts, stats, and proven commodities (and it's impossible to stick only to that without at least some of your own opinions bleeding through), you see a rather different picture than the one being painted in most conference previews.

Who knows what will happen, but the North shapes up to be a distinct three-team race in 2009, a race anybody can win. If Nebraska is "back" and winning the North again this year, they're going to have to earn it by winning on the road against two teams that match up very evenly with them. If Colorado is going to finally fulfill their "sleeper" potential, they're going to have to do it by sneaking past two teams that basically as proven (or unproven) as they are, plus maybe another team that is much more proven.

Bottom line: let the arguments begin.

2009 Nebraska Football Spring Preview: Linebackers A Plenty!

Jon Johnston — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:00:11 -0000

Last year Bo Pelini walked into his first spring practice wondering where his linebacking unit was. He finally located them standing behind a post, difficult to locate because they were so thin (insert collective groan).

Bo Pelini started his first season with one returning starter, Phillip Dillard, at linebacker. Tyler Wortman had played in 2008 due to injuries to Bo Ruud and Lance Brandenburgh, but that was the extent of the experience. The depth chart looked so bad going into spring practice that Cody Glenn switched positions from running back to linebacker.

This year the linebacker position is so loaded that Latravis Washington switched to quarterback, leaving no less than 12 players to vie for playing time at three positions. What a difference a year makes - this year you couldn’t throw a rock at the Husker football team without hitting a linebacker.

Can Phillip Dillard work his way back into a starting middle linebacker role?
Photo by Dennis Hubbard.

The switch for Glenn appeared to work out well as at times he played like a man possessed, while at others he made silly mistakes. Even though an unfortunate suspension ended his season after nine games, Glenn ended up fifth in total tackles with 51. He had six tackles for loss, four pass break-ups and a forced fumble.

Phillard Dillard played in nine games, but suffered an ankle injury against Baylor and missed the remaining fives games. He finished the season with 38 tackles and a half sack. Colton Koehler started the season a relative unknown, but played in seven games and eventually replaced Dillard as the starter. Koehler got his first career start in the Gator Bowl and finished the season with 16 tackles, including eight against Kansas State and a safety against Baylor.

Matt Holt was another surprise, earning his first career start against Texas Tech. He played in nine games, finishing with a total of 14 tackles, including eight against Texas Tech. He suffered an injury during the Kansas game and missed the rest of the season due to should surgery.

Beyond Dillard, Blake Lawrence has the most experience of this year’s linebackers. Lawrence played in ten games at the will spot and started two games including the Gator Bowl. He finished 2008 with 21 total tackles and had an interception against Clemson that lead to a Alex Henery field goal.

The talk before the start of spring practice was whether or not Dillard could fight off middle linebacker of the future Will Compton. After Mike Ekeler’s recent comments it appears that Dillard may have to worry about fighting Colton Koehler and Matthew May for playing time as well.

Redshirt freshmen Will Compton, Alonzo Whaley, and Sean Fisher are highly-touted newcomers expected to compete for a starting role. Compton is widely considered Nebraska’s middle linebacker of the future while Whaley and Fisher will compete for the outside linebacker roles.

Who are the projected starters? Right now, who cares? Pelini won’t make a depth chart for spring practice, and with this many linebackers vying for playing time there’s no reason why he should as the competition will continue well into fall. There will be a depth chart come fall and someone will be starting, but given that the Huskers first two games are against Sun Belt conference teams Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State expect a number of different linebackers to see playing time. This will give Compton, Whaley, or Fisher time to grow into starters without necessarily exposing the defense early in the season.

Nebraska started three linebackers only three times last season. Whether that is due to the Big 12’s shift to the spread offense or because of the 2008 depth issues is debatable. If the 2009 group, particularly the will and buck positions, can show enough speed they’ll see the field more than their 2008 counterparts.

Who Goes Where?

Brian Christopherson at Husker Extra was kind enough to lay out the position battles going into spring, also noting that this does not represent a depth chart.

At the WILL: Blake Lawrence, Alonzo Whaley, Matt Holt, Matthew May
At the MIKE: Colton Koehler, Phillip Dillard, Will Compton, Matthew May (he's swinging between MIKE and WILL)

At the BUCK: Sean Fisher, Micah Kreikemeier, Graham Stoddard, Blake Lawrence (swinging between the WILL and BUCK)

A look at the class breakdown:
Phillip Dillard - Sr
Colton Koehler - Sr

Thomas Grove - Jr
Blake Lawrence - Jr
LaTravis Washington - Jr - switched to quarterback

Mathew May - So
Matt Holt - So
Joseph Camarata - So
Austin Stafford - So - no longer with team

Sean Fisher - RFr
Tanner Foxhoven - RFr
Will Compton - RFr
Micah Kreikmeier - RFr
Matt Manninger - RFr
Alonzo Whaley - RFr
Graham Stoddard - RFr
Sam Meginnis - RFr

Freshman Recruits:

Robert Barry - Fr - Walk On
Colby Starkebaum - Fr - Walk On
Chris Williams - Fr - Scholarship
Devin Paulsen - Fr - Walk On
Eric Martin - Fr - Scholarship

The Fog of '09 - North Defenses

Bill C. — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:04 -0000

Yesterday, it was North Offenses. Today, North Defenses.

Defensive Lines

Nebraska (DT Ndamukong Suh, DE Pierre Allen)
Kansas (DE Jake Laptad, DT Richard Johnson, DT Caleb Blakesley)
Missouri (DT Jaron Baston, DE Brian Coulter, DE Jacquies Smith)
Kansas State (DE Brandon Harold, DT Daniel Calvin)
Iowa State (DE Rashawn Parker, DT Nate Frere)
Colorado (DE Jason Brace, ?)

That's right, Ndamukong Suh still has eligibility left--feels like he's been having an up-and-down season for Nebraska since about 2003--and he and Pierre Allen should make a pretty solid DL for the Huskers. KU returns a decent amount, and while their unit will be far from spectacular, it will be steady and reliable. Missouri has a lot of potential at DE with Coulter and Smith, but they still have to replace a lot of career starts.

Linebackers

Missouri (Sean Weatherspoon--for now, Luke Lambert)
Nebraska (Phil Dillard, Blake Lawrence)
Colorado (Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler)
Iowa State (Jesse Smith, Fred Garrin, Cameron Bell)
Kansas State (Olu Hall, Ulla Pomele)
Kansas (?)

I think Sean Weatherspoon will return, but I could be wrong. If he doesn't...well, MU probably doesn't fall very far because NOBODY will have tremendous LBs in 2009. Jeff Smart is solid, but that's really all CU has. Smith and Garrin have had their moments at ISU, but...yeah, they're still only average. NU returns Phil Dillard and some youngsters with potential, and if 'Spoon is in the NFL in 2009, that should give NU the best unit.

Defensive Backs

Kansas State (CB Joshua Moore, CB Blair Irvin, S Courtney Herndon)
Iowa State (CB Leonard Johnson, S James Smith)
Nebraska (S Rickey Thenarse, S Larry Asante)
Kansas (CB/S Chris Harris, S Darrell Stuckey, CB Daymond Patterson)
Missouri (CB Carl Gettis, S Kenji Jackson)
Colorado (CB Cha'pelle Brown, ?)

Oy. If there's one reason why North offenses should still be pretty successful in 2009, it's because nobody in the North returns a quality secondary. I'm probably underrating the Missouri secondary here--Iowa State game aside, Castine Bridges hasn't been anything special in '08, and there won't be a huge dropoff to Kevin Rutland or one of the RSFrs. Meanwhile, Missouri fans are loving them some Kenji Jackson. But only Carl Gettis will be proven.

Also, I might be overrating Iowa State, but I love me some Leonard Johnson.

North Defenses, 2009

Nebraska (15)
Missouri (12)
Kansas State (11)
Iowa State (10)
Kansas (9)
Colorado (6)

As with the offenses, each North defense will have its strengths and weaknesses...but not a lot of strengths. Nebraska scores the best, and they're returning only about six starters. Missouri loses William Moore and most of its D-line, and they still might have the best North defense. Iowa State's D was brutal in '08, and they actually score pretty well here. Big-time tossup. A lot will come down to matchups and schedules...so after we look at special teams, we'll look at that.

Special Teams

Iowa State (K Grant Mahoney, P Mike Brandtner, KR/PR's Leonard Johnson, Devin McDowell)
Nebraska (K Alex Henery, KR/PR Niles Paul)
Colorado (KR/PR Josh Smith, P Matt DiLallo, K Aric Goodman)
Kansas State (KR/PR Deon Murphy, P George Pierson)
Missouri (P Jake Harry, K Tanner Mills)
Kansas (PR Daymond Patterson, K Jacob Branstetter, P Alonso Rojas)

Honestly, only ISU has a relatively complete special teams unit. I'm optimistic that Missouri's return game will still be decent with Gahn McGaffie or whoever ends up back there, but that's me projecting greatness on newcomers...so for now they're stuck low on the list. Colorado has a solid return man in Smith, but no kickers. KSU has a solid return man in Murphy, but no kickers. Kansas...yeah, same.

Coaches

Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska
Kansas State
Colorado
Iowa State

Mizzou could lose either or both coordinators, but I think this is where continuity pays off--the guys under the coordinators (Yost, Hill, Steckel, etc.) basically share the same brain as Eberflus and Christensen, so I'm not tremendously worried about losing the OC and DC. Then again, I'm a homer. KU took a lengthy step backwards after losing last year's DC, so who knows? All I know is this: in the last two years, Gary Pinkel has blown up the "Pinkel Effect". It no longer exists

So if we're going to add together all my admittedly arbitrary unit rankings (offense, defense, special teams, coaching), we end up with these standings.

2009 North Rankings

Missouri (40 points)
Nebraska (39)
Kansas (33)
Kansas State (30)
Iowa State (25)
Colorado (22)

Very loosely, there's a top tier (MU, NU, KU) and a bottom tier (KSU, ISU, CU). And obviously, there are question marks here. Is QB worth more than the other units? Then KU gets a bump up. Is there a "continuity of personnel" factor that will hurt Missouri (and possibly Nebraska)? Am I understating Colorado's potential with their solid recruiting classes? But we'll go with this for now.

-- Schedules --

Colorado

10/10 - at Texas
10/17 - Kansas
10/24 - at Kansas State
10/31 - Missouri
11/7 - Texas A&M
11/14 - at Iowa State
11/21 - at Oklahoma State
11/28 - Nebraska

South schedule: @ UT, @ OSU, ATM. That screams "1-2."

North home slate: KU, MU, NU. That's a good slate to have next year. I obviously don't expect much out of Colorado in '09, but they'll most likely go at least 1-2 in those games. I guess I'll say they beat KU, since KU's the lowest-ranked of the three.

North road slate: @ KSU, @ ISU. Not a good slate to have next year. Getting KSU and ISU at home would probably mean two wins, but on the road is a different story.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6

Iowa State

10/3 - vs Kansas State (at Arrowhead)
10/10 - at Kansas
10/17 - Baylor
10/24 - at Nebraska
10/31 - at Texas A&M
11/7 - Oklahoma State
11/14 - Colorado
11/21 - at Missouri

South schedule: BU, @ ATM, OSU. If ISU's defense takes a step forward, then they'll probably beat Baylor and at least have a chance against ATM. Even though Baylor will be pretty decent next year, I'll say ISU wins that game and goes 1-2.

North home slate: CU. They lose the KSU game to Arrowhead. The ISU-KSU could very well be a "winner goes 6-6 and slips into a bowl" situation, and as you see, they could be pretty evenly-matched. For no reason whatsoever, I say ISU goes 2-2 in these games.

North road slate: @ KU, @ NU, @ MU. Ouch. 0-3.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5

Kansas

10/10 - Iowa State
10/17 - at Colorado
10/24 - Oklahoma
10/31 - at Texas Tech
11/7 - at Kansas State
11/14 - Nebraska
11/21 - at Texas
11/28 - vs Missouri (still at Arrowhead, right?)

South schedule: OU, @ Tech, @ UT. I really hope KU fans enjoyed 2007. 0-3.

North home slate: ISU, NU, vs Mizzou. Assuming KU-MU is once again at Arrowhead, this once again hurts KU. Instead of getting both NU and MU at home, they get one on a neutral field. I say they beat ISU and NU, and naturally (ahem) lose to MU. 2-1.

North road slate: @ CU, @ KSU. They're not losing both of these, and since I already have them losing to CU, I guess that means they beat KSU. 1-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5. It's amazing what scheduling can do.

Kansas State

10/3 - at Iowa State
10/10 - at Texas Tech
10/17 - Texas A&M
10/24 - Colorado
10/31 - at Oklahoma
11/7 - Kansas
11/14 - Missouri
11/21 - at Nebraska

South schedule: @ Tech, ATM, @ OU. ATM is a big game, but I say KSU wins it. 1-2.

North home slate: CU, KU, MU. It would not at all surprise me to see a young Mizzou team slip up on the road, so we'll arbitrarily say it happens in Manhattan. That makes KSU 2-1 here.

North road slate: vs ISU, @ NU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 3-5.

Missouri

10/3 - Nebraska
10/17 - at Oklahoma State
10/24 - Texas
10/31 - at Colorado
11/7 - Baylor
11/14 - at Kansas State
11/21 - Iowa State
11/28 - vs Kansas

South schedule: @ OSU, UT, BU. Gotta figure that's 1-2, though obviously Baylor will not be a pushover.

North home slate: NU, ISU. The NU game will be ha-yoooge. But tie goes to the home team, right? 2-0.

North road slate: vs KU, @ CU, @ KSU. Beat KU and CU, randomly lose to KSU. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Nebraska

10/3 - at Missouri
10/17 - Texas Tech
10/24 - Iowa State
10/31 - at Baylor
11/7 - Oklahoma
11/14 - at Kansas
11/21 - Kansas State
11/28 - at Colorado

South schedule: TT, @ BU, OU. Hmm. No to BU and OU, but I think they'll take out Tech. 1-2.

North home slate: ISU, KSU. 2-0.

North road slate: @ MU, @ KU, @ CU. We'll say 1-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 4-4.

Standings

Missouri 5-3
Nebraska 4-4
Kansas 3-5 (brutal schedule)
Kansas State 3-5
Iowa State 3-5
Colorado 2-6

Summary

It won't surprise me if the preseason mags pick KU (because of Reesing) or NU (because they're Nebraska) to win the North, and with the loss of Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, etc., it would very much surprise me to see anybody actually picking Mizzou. But although I may be overrating Mizzou in the rankings, there's no question that getting NU at home and KU in KC gives them the scheduling advantage here. In a three-team North race, it could come down to home-field advantage, and there's now no question in my mind that a third straight division title, if not a gimme by any means, is within reach, even in a rebuilding year.

But don't hold me to any of that.

Hawk Talk...Nebraska Week Pregame

Denverjhawk — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 10:00:07 -0000

A look at news and notes about Jayhawks and upcoming opponents...

The Good Guys...

Daymond Patterson continues to adapt to his new responsibilities.
KU Notebook
A look back at last years incredible game against NU.
KU Prepares for a new look Husker team.
Jeff Spikes learning from last years All American Kansas tackle.
Tyler Lawrence and brother Blake will be on opposite sidelines this weekend.
Jacob Branstetter shows off tackling skills.
Kansas' offensive line is beginning to gel.
Game Preview.

The Bad Guys...

Huskers doing their best to block out last year.
Some concerns this week over Coach Pelini's temper.
Husker view of five keys to beating Kansas.

My thoughts...Coach Mangino has this team coming off its strongest performances of the year. The Kansas State game saw an offensive line dominate from the outset and help to put up some huge numbers on the ground. Defensively Kansas had by far it's most effective scheme of the year disrupting Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense and forcing turnovers.

This weekend the Jayhawks head to Lincoln and play a tougher opponent overall and certainly will be in a far more hostile environment. There is a lot of history on the line and pressure for both sides. If Kansas comes out again establishes a ground game and a balanced offensive attack I don't expect the Huskers will be able to stop them consitently. If they can do this and again exceed expectations defensively look for Kansas to come out of Lincoln with the win.

The most important thing the Jayhawks can do is come out strong like they did last week and keep the Husker faithful out of the game. While both teams will be playing strength against weakness the whole game I think Kansas' strengths are more of a mismatch for the Huskers weaknesses than vice versa.

Final Score: Kansas 37 Nebraska 31

Also here is your friendly reminder to join fellow Hawks in the open thread if you don't already have plans...I will be sporting blue in a sea of red as I per tradition will be watching the game at a Husker bar with a friend. It's his home game so I have to go to his turf...sucks.

Full list of supplemental notes...and highlights after the jump...

A Kansas Win Would...

• Give KU at least seven wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1960 (7-2-1) and 1961 (7-3-1). KU was 12-1 a year ago.

• Give KU back-to-back wins against Nebraska for the first time since 1967-68.

• Give KU three wins in the last four years against NU, the best four-game stretch against the Huskers since winning five straight from 1957-61.

• Stop a 19-game losing streak in Lincoln since the last victory there in 1968 (won 23-13).

A Kansas Loss Would...

• Be less good than a win.

Things To Look For Against Nebraska...

• QB Todd Reesing (6,328) needs 83 passing yards to pass Frank Seurer (6,410) for the KU career passing yardage record.

• Reesing (225) needs just three completions to pass Mike Norseth (227) for second on the KU season completions list. Reesing set the school record last year with 276.

• WR Kerry Meier (66) needs five receptions to pass Richard Estell (70 in 1985) for the single-season receptions record.

• Meier has caught at least two passes in 17 straight games.

• WR Dezmon Briscoe (97) needs three receptions and WR Kerry Meier (93) needs seven catches for 100 in their careers. Eleven Jayhawks have recorded at least 100 receptions in their careers.

KU Notable...

• RB Jake Sharp is one of two players in the Big 12 averaging 100 rushing yards in conference play as he has averaged 112.2 yards in five league games to join Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State, who has averaged 120.4 yards per game.

• LB James Holt's 11 tackles for loss this year make him one of just two linebackers in the Big 12 with double-digit tackles for loss this year (Sean Weatherspoon of Missouri has 13) as well as one of six players in the league to accomplish that feat.

• Kansas has 12 interceptions this season to rank second in the Big 12 (Texas Tech has picked off 15). Eight different Jayhawks have pickoffs, led by Darrell Stuckey's three.

Poll

Pick Your Winner and Post Your Score and thoughts in the comments

Kansas

7 votes

Nebraska

7 votes

14 votes | Poll has closed

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:00:07 -0000

The first Bo Pelini depth chart was released today not too many surprises, but worth a discussion.

Offense:

Quarterback: 1 - Joe Ganz, 2 - Patrick Witt, 3- Zac Lee.

No surprises here, although you have to ask yourself what happens if Joe Ganz goes down with an injury. What does that do to the season?

I-Back: 1 - Marlon Lucky -or- Roy Helu -or- Quentin Castille

So there are three backs listed as co #1's. There seems to be a lot of buzz about this, and I'll be honest, I don't get it (the fuss, that is). Running backs get the holy crap beat out of them much worse than they used to, so you are not going to make it through a full season without your main guy getting banged up.

What is sad here is the name that's missing - Kenny Wilson. It's doubtful he'll play again due to his leg injury. It's easy to forget the potential that was there, but don't.

Fullback: 1 - Thomas Lawson, 2 - Justin Makovicka

No surprises, remember that while Callahan didn't use fullbacks on the run, Lawson caught three TD's last season which was as many as Nate Swift and Marlon Lucky, and more than the entire receiving corp besides Swift and Peterson.

Wide Receiver X: 1 - Nate Swift, 2 - Menelik Holt, 3 - Will Henry, 4- Chris Brooks

No surprise, although I guess I'm a little surprised that Chris Brooks is all the way down at #4.

Wide Receiver Z: 1 - Todd Peterson, 2 - Niles Paul or Curenski Gilleylen

Again, no surprise here.

Tight End: 1 - Mike McNeill, 2 - Dreu Young, 3 - Ryan Hill, 4 - Ben Cotton

Obviously Tyson Hetzer hasn't recovered enough from his spring knee injury to be listed on the roster at this point. Perhaps he'll join in later in the season. This position is more critical to offensive success than people are giving it, here's hoping they can perform well this season.

Offensive Line:

They're a unit, and we treat them like a unit.

LT: 1 - Mike Smith, 2 - Jaivorio Burkes
LG: 1 - Mike Huff, 2 - Keith Williams
C: 1 - Jacob Hickman, 2 - Mike Caputo
RG: 1 - Matt Slauson, 2 - DJ Jones
RT: 1 - Lydon Murtha, 2 - Marcel Jones

Lydon Murtha moves back to right tackle. Murtha is an enigma - the guy has the body size for a prototypical NFL left tackle, but gives that spot up to Mike Smith. Go figure. Burkes at #2 behind Mike Smith is a little surprise, but we'll see how the rotation comes out.

The key to this line is that some of these guys can move around to different positions. Slauson has played both guard and tackle, while Hickman has played guard and center. An incredibly solid group, with plenty of depth and experience.

Defense:

Nose Tackle: 1 - Ndamukong Suh, 2 - Shukree Barfield, 3 - Terrence Moore

Defensive Tackle: 1 - Ty Steinkuhler, 2 - Jared Crick

Base End: 1 - Zach Potter, 2 - Clayton Sievers

Open End: 1 - Barry Turner, 2 - Pierre Allen

No surprises here. Obviously losing Kevin Dixon hurt, but I don't see this group as thin as a lot of other people. Note that Baker Steinkuhler isn't listed - hopefully a redshirt season is in the works for him.

Linebackers:

Will Linebacker: 1 - Cody Glenn, 2 - Blake Lawrence

Mike Linebacker: 1 - Phillip Dillard, 2 - Will Compton, 3 - Colton Koehler

Buck Linebacker: 1 - Tyler Wortman, 2 - Sean Fisher

Obviously the linebacker position is of huge concern. Will Compton and Sean Fisher are both true freshmen. Dillard is a solid middle linebacker with experience, so the hope would be that Compton and Fisher aren't needed this season which will give them time to get stronger and learn. LaTravis Washington is not listed here due to injury. Nor is Nick Covey.

Is there a Husker fan who isn't cheering for Cody Glenn's position switch to work out well? Even beyond the sake of the team, you have to admire the guy for moving there. Lot of guts, love that guy.

Defensive Backfield:

Right Cornerback: 1 - Anthony West, 2 - Prince Amukamara

Left Cornerback: 1 - Armando Murillo, 2 - Eric Hagg

Strong Safety: 1 - Larry Asante, 2 - Major Culbert

Free Safety: 1 - Rickey Thenarse, 2 - Matt O'Hanlon

The starting four are a pretty decent group. What you have to ask is what happens when we move to using five or six defensive backs, ala defending Texas Tech. Amukamara has never played corner before, so the first three games may be key to getting him valuable experience. Eric Hagg and Major Culbert should be able to step into the extra roles if needed, so keep an eye on them should they get into the game against Western Michigan.

I realize I tagged everyone on the depth chart with this post, but hey it was my chance to check out our rosters, and make sure everything is okay. Corrections will be made!