SB Nation - Todd Peterson

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Jon Johnston — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:03:22 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

I know one of our guys is somewhere down at that end of the field.... here goes.....

Before I start, let me note that it's always an easy proposition to suggest firing people, especially when you're not the one that has to pull the trigger. If you've read my writing long enough, you know that I have a weak spot for firing people - I'm not part of the crowd that's constantly asking for someone to be shot in the head. It's too easy a solution, although I admit, a popular one.

I like the Shawn Watson's philosophy of a "multiple offense". I'm not ignorant of the fact that a powerful running attack is part of Nebraska's heritage, but the ability to shift into a spread and use the zone read and spread option plays give us a huge advantage over our opponents - we just didn't execute them well this season.

I disagree with the notion that Nebraska can't recruit skill position players that can run anything other than a power running game. If Bill Callahan could recruit decent quarterbacks (Zac Taylor, Joe Ganz) and receivers (Maurice Purify, Nate Swift), then why can't this staff?

You can write off some of the offensive problems as turnover in players, but only some. Still, the West Coast offense is largely dependent upon timing and that timing has to be developed between a quarterback and his receivers. We knew it would be tough to replace Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen the difficulties Watson faced early in the season when the receivers were not performing as well as was needed. Menelik Holt started the first five games, then disappeared along with Curenski Gilleylen and Chris Brooks. Holt had 15 receptions for 175 yards, none after the Iowa State game. Brooks had 13 receptions for 177 yards, but none since Texas Tech when he had five receptions for 66 yards to lead the receivers. Gilleylen had 16 receptions for 299 yards, none after Iowa State.

They were replaced by Khiry Cooper and Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie finished the regular season with 13 receptions for 129 yards, with 12 of those receptions coming after Iowa State. Cooper's receptions were split throughout the season, as he finished with 13 receptions for 80 yards, with seven coming after Iowa State.

The only consistent receiver all season was Niles Paul and even he had problems (turnover at the goal line, Iowa State). Paul finished with 36 catches for 673 yards to lead the receivers, having six receptions against Iowa State and 13 the rest of the season.

That level of turnover doesn't allow a quarterback to develop the much heralded "chemistry" with his receivers. Granted, Lee's accuracy didn't seem to improve over the season, so you could argue it didn't make much difference as to whom he was throwing the ball.

As for Barney Cotton, the offensive line did progress somewhat throughout the season although the offensive output did not. The number of holding calls and false starts dropped as the season went on, and the line was asked to do a lot with defenses stacked against them to stop the run.

Add to that a general lack of depth. Jacob Hickman played well at center, and Ricky Henry started every game at right guard (the position that was unsettled before the season began). Marcel Jones and D.J. Jones played in rotation at right tackle while Mike Smith started every game at left tackle. Derek Meyer started when Keith Williams was injured, then Williams took over the starting left guard position for the final ten games. The loss before the season of Jaivorio Burkes at tackle and incoming freshman Brent Qvale certainly didn't help the depth issue. Off the top of my head, what we didn't see is the level of in-game rotation that we've seen in past seasons. (I"ll look into this more in the off-season.)

I suspect that most people would like to see Cotton fired because of his association with failed coaching regimes of the past (Solich at Nebraska, McCarney at ISU) rather than knowing much about offensive line coaching. In his defense, keep in mind that, other than Ricky Henry, these are still Bill Callahan's offensive linemen (In other words, Callahan's preference for size over speed still plagues the offense).

Going back to Watson, I'm not 100% sure what to think, other than he got hit with a perfect storm this season - a new starting quarterback, inconsistent receivers, and an offensive line that, well, had its problems. Add to these the fact that one quarterback left before the season started (Patrick Witt) while another was lost to injury at the start of the season (Kody Spano). Running back depth was severely hampered by dismissal (Quentin Castille) and injury (Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead).

A counter argument would point out that every team has to deal with injuries and then list all of the teams that did well despite them. For that, I have a response: Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with firing a coach, especially an offensive coordinator, is that you're going to throw away a year while the new guy implements his system. The counter argument here (I assume) is to bring in someone who runs a much simpler offense, so easy that you and I and a trained monkey can run it. Or perhaps magic happens and everyone instantaneously learns the new offense by having chips implanted in their brains or something like that. (If you're voting for a simplified offense, I vote for Texas Tech's then, because they replace quarterbacks and receivers year after year and seem to get the same fantastic results.)

So, give me your answer to the title question. Does one of these guys need to answer for this season? Or maybe both?

Five Questions With Corn Nation

TB — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:33:28 -0000

It's the Big 12 North Championship game today when K-State travels to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. To get a little more information on the Huskers from those who follow them most closely, I turned to the trio at Corn Nation for more info. Questions and answers are below.

BOTC: Roy Helu has looked a lot better in the last couple games. Is he finally healthy?

Mike: Healthier, perhaps. After the Oklahoma game, Helu talked about playing for the team instead of for himself, and while he didn't phrase it this way, he's decided to grit it out and play through the pain. If you watch him block in pass protection, it's obvious that his shoulder's no where near 100%. (Another good reason to leave a fullback and a tight end or two in on pass protection.) Helu left the field in Lawrence holding his arm again, and his arm was wrapped up in the post game press conference, so we're all hoping he didn't aggravate the issue last week.

JLew: Healthy yes? 100% no. Burkhead maybe back after a broken foot, he's been cleared to play so he may be able to take some of the load off Helu.

Corn Blight/Jon J: Something certainly changed. Bo Pelini and the rest of his staff talk about injuries the way people hide their crazy uncles, so the only real way to know someone's injured is if they're out for the season or carried off on a stretcher.

Helu is a big key to the Husker offense, although true freshman Rex Burkhead might be back for this game. He's missed several games due to a foot injury, and provided a huge lift to the offense earlier in the season.

BOTC: Last week, KU apparently unlocked some serious magic and kept the Husker d-line in check. What did they do?

Mike: Todd Reesing is the most experienced quarterback NU has faced this year, and it showed. He didn't wilt in the face of pressure. Carl Pelini dialed down the pressure as a result of some Reesing scrambles, and that limited the pressure after the first quarter. Considering that NU held KU to 0 first downs in the first quarter, I wonder if that might not have been a mistake.

JLew: NU changed the approach some, Pelini explains- "That's on me. I slowed them down. (Kansas) got out on a couple quarterback draws. I thought we could cover on the back end. I thought we needed to handle (KU quarterback Todd) Reesing with the front four, and when you're trying to handle six gaps with four guys, you got to be a little more controlled in your pass rush.

Even then KU didn't run the ball particularly well. The defense also seemed to come down after a lights out game against OU.

CB/Jon J: Kansas played a darned good game on offense. They switched between misdirection and running quarterback draws with Reesing, who did a good impersonation of his old playmaking self. The playcalling was just enough to confound the Husker defensive line.

BOTC: What has been Nebraska's biggest problem on offense this year?

Mike: I think there are two problems at the heart: (1) Injuries at I-back. Roy Helu has been banged up and Rex Burkhead has been out for over a month. Even Dontrayeveous Robinson got banged up late against Baylor. Nobody has that much depth to handle that rash of injuries and not be limited. (2) Lack of talent at wide receiver. We're learning just how good Nate Swift and Todd Peterson were last season now that they're gone. Their backups have failed miserably, and Nebraska has resorted to playing a juco transfer and a center fielder from the baseball team. Niles Paul is really the only playmaker at receiver, and while he's made some incredible plays, his two fumbles against Texas Tech and Iowa State changed those ballgames.

JLew: See Mike's answer, and I'll add finding an identity. NU started the year trying to run a West-coast spread offense, which they couldn't do against better teams with our talent at WR. Now NU seems to have settled into a heavy formation, I-Back, play-action, bootleg offense.

CB/Jon J: For me the biggest issue is the offensive line. They've played decently, but had way too many mistakes this season. Holding calls brought back a touchdown pass against Virginia Tech that would have won the game, personal foul penalties have cost the Huskers badly when deep in red zone territory, and numerous false starts. Dumb stuff, really. Most of the line is made up of Bill Callahan recruits so they're big and slow. The current coaching staff can only do so much to correct that problem.

BOTC: Pretend you're the coach for a minute (you have to wear an oversized sweatshirt and chew your gum really hard while you answer this question): Do you let Adi Kunalic kick it deep, banking on a touchback and risking that he misses and Brandon Banks gets a shot at a return, or do you squib it to keep it out of Banks' hands?

Mike: Start off trying to get it in the end zone. Then kick it out of bounds if you have to.

JLew: Hmmm predicted 10-15mph winds from the South. So half the time Adi should be able to clear the endzone. Other than that I think Pelini will challenge his special teams to stop Banks, and kick it deep.

CB/Jon J: Depends on the wind, really, what kind of weather hits Memorial Stadium Saturday night. If it's calm and the wind isn't swirling, I'm kicking it deep.

BOTC: Finally, most Husker fans are pretty confident that this game will be won if NU plays well, but what about that spread? Will the Huskers cover a 16.5-point spread?

Mike: I think they can; they've shown the ability to move the ball at times. The biggest concern to me is turnover margin; KSU is 2nd in the Big XII in this statistic, and Nebraska has had issues throughout Big XII play with ball security. If NU takes care of the ball, I think they can win this game handily. If KSU forces turnovers, all bets are off.

JLew: NU has had no turnovers in the OU and the KU games. Against Baylor Green the freshman QB had a pick 6. So the last couple of games NU has taken care of the ball pretty well. On the other hand, KSU's defense has been able to force some with some hard hits. I don't think I'd take the Huskers in this one. I wouldn't surprised if they covered, but I wouldn't bet on it.

CB/Jon J: The point spread is 16.5 points? Who the hell bets real money on this stuff, nutballs and addicts?

Thanks again to the guys from Corn Nation for answering our questions.

Nebraska's Keys To Victory Over Texas Tech

Jon Johnston — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:15:21 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Nebraska quarterback Zac Lee celebrates after throwing a 13-yard pass to wide receiver Niles Paul for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game against Missouri Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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If this game doesn't worry you at least a little, you're not paying attention. Forget that Tech is on the road. Forget that they don't have Michael Crabtree or Graham Harrell, they're still the same ol' Texas Tech that can put up yardage and points at a faster rate than nearly anyone in the nation.

Last year's Tech game was a freakazoid affair with Nebraska holding the ball for 40 minutes. The Huskers controlled the game with a ball control passing offense. Can that happen again this year? With Zac Lee as Joe Ganz, Niles Paul as Nate Swift, and a whole gob of other guys playing Todd Peterson, why not?

As much as you'd like to think Nebraska can line up in tight end heavy sets and pummel the Tech defense, it's not going to happen.

Take What You're Given

Much has been made this week about the Huskers throwing the ball so often in the rain at Missouri. Mid-week we discovered that Watson's calls were biased toward the rain, but changed to passes by Lee after reading the Missouri defense. I don't understand the angst over this, especially given the outcome of the game.

If Tech moves up to stop the run, then take what you're given and throw the ball. It would be foolhardy to run when you're outnumbered at the line of scrimmage. If that means throwing the ball 40 times, then so be it. Zac Lee has performed well at home, as has his receiving corps. There's no reason to expect that this game will be any different.

Keep in mind, it's not the Huskers who are looking for an offensive identity. It's the media that creates this "run the ball" frenzy so they can feed off it. The team is looking to win football games by whatever means they can. Keep in mind that we have one very good running back, while we have quite a number of very good receivers - Niles Paul, Mike McNeill, Curenski Gilleylen included.

If winning means Roy Helu gaining 150 yards on the ground, then yay for him. If it's Zac Lee throwing for 250 yards, then there's nothing wrong with that either.

Win First Down

This key, along with the first, are just another way of saying "ball control", and that is just another way of saying to win we need to keep Tech's offense off the field. I wouldn't expect the same level of a ball control offense we saw last season, but things will go much easier if we get solid yardage on first down.

Play selection is much easier when you're working with second or third and three as opposed to seven. Rex Burkhead will be missed because of his straight ahead tough running style, but Shawn Watson will have to discover that talent in another of his young running backs.

Eliminate Stupid

Last week, Nebraska recorded 12 penalties for 108 yards. Some of those can be written off because of the inclement conditions, but many of them were the result of poor discipline. Husker fans don't need to be reminded of the drive-killing nature of penalties.

We're midway through the season. It's time for the stupidity to end. Nebraska's offense can't afford to lose points because of it, especially not against a team that's known for rolling up yards and points like Tech.

The bottom line is this - the offense can't expect the defense to bail them out of every game this season, so stop shooting yourselves in the foot.

Control The Lines

Ndamukong Suh has played with such a fervor that it's difficult to imagine him being stopped by anyone, but in this game he'll be going up against one of the Big 12's best offensive linemen in Tech guard Brandon Carter. Let's assume that Carter is able to control Suh better than most, which means it will be time for Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, and Barry Turner to get some big plays.

The rest of Suh's counterparts will need to get pressure on Tech's quarterback, but they'll also be responsible for stopping Tech's running game, ala the 11 touchdowns on the ground alluded to earlier this week. That means controlling the gaps, standing your ground and getting an even push upfield. It does not mean exploding up the field in an all-out pass rush.

The offensive line must perform better to win this game. They'll need to pick up the short yardage situations to sustain drives. They must also be better disciplined in run blocking, not allowing linebackers to shoot through and blow up a play because someone missed an assignment.

It will be a good sign if Nebraska is able to run the ball in the middle of Tech's defense. Last week we were all about running wide. If we're going to run the ball, we need to make sure we're getting yardage in the middle as well as the edges.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers Team Capsule

Jon Johnston — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:32:52 -0000

The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Nebraska team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece in conjunction with CBS Sports.

Expect the Blackshirt defense to be much improved in Bo Pelini's season. They should carry Nebraska to a Big 12 North win this season. Photo by Dennis Hubbard

The Outlook

Anything less than winning the Big 12 North will be a disappointment. The success of the 2009 Husker offense will depend on Nebraska establishing a firm ground attack, providing time for Lee and the receiving corps to develop into a balanced attack. If the Huskers find themselves one-dimensional, they'll have to rely on their defense to carry them to the Big 12 Championship game, but the margin for error will be very thin.

Offense

In 2009, the offense begins with I-backs Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille. In 2008, Helu was bothered by a shoulder injury at the start of the season, but emerged as a star in November, rushing for 510 yards and five touchdowns in the final four games. For the season, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry, which is the highest of any returning back in the North division. Castille was the third back most of the season, but rushed for 125 yards in the Gator Bowl.

Replacing Joe Ganz at quarterback will be junior Zac Lee. Lee, who played sparingly last season, might be Nebraska's most talented quarterback since Eric Crouch. At San Francisco City College in 2006, Lee threw for over 3400 yards and 35 touchdowns. Lee is mobile as well, with 4.6 speed.

Nebraska's top returning receiver is tight end Mike McNeill, who'll probably be the best tight end in the conference not named Jermaine Gresham. Menelik Holt and Niles Paul look to be the top two wide receivers in 2009. Holt was hampered by a knee injury that caused him to miss most of four games last season. Paul's biggest contributions to date have been on kick returns, with an 85 yard touchdown return against San Jose State last season. A group of inexperienced but talented receivers will fight for playing time and to fill out the remaining positions.

Three starters return up front, including honorable mention all-Big XII center Jacob Hickman, who may move to guard this season. Juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith return to anchor the left side of the line. If Hickman moves to right guard, sophomore Mike Caputo will take over at center. Other candidates for the right side include tackle Marcel Jones and guards D.J. Jones and Ricky Henry.

Defense

The defense is lead by pre-season All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who is also a top-ten NFL draft prospect. The defense will be dependent upon Suh to make plays or occupy enough blockers to make them better. Expect sophomore Jared Crick to start alongside Suh, with redshirt freshman Baker Steinkuhler in the rotation.

Defensive end Barry Turner returns this season after breaking his leg in early 2008. Pierre Allen did an excellent job filling in his position last season. Between Suh, Crick, Turner and Allen, Nebraska's defensive line should be one of the best in the conference this season.

At linebacker, no fewer than ten players are fighting for three starting positions. Phillip Dillard returns as the most experienced of the bunch, but after a lackluster spring must fight his way back into the starting rotation. Pelini has so far refused to name starters to keep the competition going, but you could expect redshirt freshmen Will Compton and Sean Fisher to win some starts, along with sophomore Matthew May.

The secondary returns with much more depth than the previous season. Prince Amukamara and Anthony West return as starters at the corners. Anthony Blue returns after sitting out 2008 with a knee injury. Lance Thorrell should reprise his role in the dime package. Larry Asante is the top returning starter at safety, and should make the All-Big 12 list by the end of the season. Eric Hagg should keep his spot as the other starting safety, splitting time with Matt O'Hanlon. Rickey Thenarse must have a good fall camp to fight off redshirt freshmen Courtney Osborne and P.J. Smith. The defensive secondary had too many break downs last season, but that should be much improved this year.

In a single season, Bo Pelini turned around a defense that finished near the bottom of the nation in several categories, and had them playing well enough to finish as one of the top defenses in the Big 12 by season's end. With a year of understanding Pelini's system behind them, expect the Blackshirt defense to become the bright spot for Husker fans this season.

Special Teams

Alex Henery returns as one of the most accurate kickers in the nation. In 2008, Henery went 18-21 in field goals and made 56 of 57 PATs. The Huskers will have to replace holder Jake Wesch and long snapper T.J. O'Leary, who have handled those duties over the past three seasons.

Kickoff specialist Adi Kunalic returns after finishing fifth the nation in touchbacks last season, giving the Huskers a formidable weapon in the kicking game. Henery may pull double duty and handle punting duty, a task for which he was originally recruited.

Nate Swift was the team's primary punter last season and must be replaced after having moved on this season. Niles Paul showed some promise returning punts, and should be more consistent this season. Newcomers Rex Burkhead and Antonio Bell will be considered as will redshirt freshman Tim Marlowe.

Niles Paul looks likely to replay his role as a kick returner after having a decent year in 2008. Two of the top five plays last season were Paul kick returns, including a 85-yard touchdown return against San Jose State. Alfonzo Dennard was one of only three true freshman to play last season and should handle return duties again this season. Sophomore Curenski Gilleylen and newcomers Burkhead and Antonio Bell may get their chance as well.

Kickoff coverage must get better as Nebraska finished 105th in the nation in last season. Watch for Bo Pelini to include some talented newcomers to the coverage team this season as the Huskers look for every edge possible to win the Big 12 North.

Key Losses

Joe Ganz, QB - The former bench warmer that nobody believed in until Sam Keller injured his collarbone. He came in and promptly put up three straight 400 yard games and showed a gritty resolve that endeared him to Husker fans. He leaves after setting 23 school records, including season records for passing yardage.

Nate Swift, WR - Departs as the Huskers record holder for career receptions, and ranks second for yards receiving all-time. Some might consider him a "possession" receiver, but he also had decent speed. In his senior season, he ranked 2nd in the Big XII and eighth nationally in punt returns.

Todd Peterson, WR - Along with Swift, gave Joe Ganz two dependable receivers. The pair combined for 125 receptions and over 1,700 yards.

Marlon Lucky, IB - The former five-star recruit never quite lived up to the hype from his high school days, but was a versatile weapon in all facets of the passing game.

Matt Slauson, OL - The anchor of the Husker offensive line the last few years, Slauson was drafted in the 6th round by the New York Jets, where he'll be reunited with Jets offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

Lydon Murtha, OL - Murtha was an enigma for the Huskers, as he had all of the measurables to be an impressive offensive line prospect, but never developed the consistency to be that dominant lineman that some projected. The Detroit Lions were impressed enough to take him in the seventh round of the NFL draft.

Zach Potter, DE - Potter became a dominant end in his final two seasons, showing a knack for deflecting passes and kicks. Last season, he blocked three kicks and deflected two passes to Ndamukong Suh, who returned both for touchdowns.

Ty Steinkuhler, DT - Steinkuhler was a bit of an unsung hero until the Gator Bowl last season. His presence prevented offenses from double-teaming Ndamukong Suh, as Clemson quickly learned.

Armando Murillo, CB - Nebraska's lone loss in the secondary, he was the Huskers most consistent performer in the secondary.

Dan Titchener, P - Three year starter who averaged 39.9 yards per punt in his career.

Newcomers

Pelini has already shown his penchant for retaining redshirts, so you shouldn't expect to see a lot of brand new faces this year.

Baker Steinkuhler, DT - Another Steinkuhler, the departing Ty's little brother. Should see plenty of playing time this season.

Will Compton, LB - the most likely middle linebacker of the future for the Blackshirt defense.

Sean Fisher, LB - having a break-out fall camp, should be expected to get a lot of starts this season.

Rex Burkhead, RB/KR/PR/? - Burkhead was a ‘do everything' guy in in high school, playing running back, quarterback, receiver, returning punts and kicks, along with taking out the trash. Truly a versatile player, probably too skilled to remain on the sideline this season as a true freshman.

Antonio Bell & Brandon Kinnie, WR - A pair of young wide receivers that should make some contributions and break into the starting rotation by the end of the season.

Big 12 Projected Order Of Finish:

North

Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State

South
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

2009 Opponent Previews

Atlantic Owls
Arkansas St. Red Wolves
Virginia Tech Hokies
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Missouri Tigers
Texas Tech Red Raiders owa St. Cyclones
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas St. Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

What Will The 2009 Nebraska Offense Look Like?

Jon Johnston — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska's Kyler Reed (25), and J.T. Kerr work on blocking drills Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, during the first day of fall football practice camp in Lincoln, Neb. What do you want out of your tight ends - better pass receiving skills or better blocking?

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I keep trying to get a handle on what this year's Husker offense might look like. It's troublesome because the assets that we have - running backs and tight ends - lead one to believe that we should move into double tight end sets and run the ball. Putting the offense into this type of formation also requires that you have a great offensive line that can run the ball when they need to.

And that's the other quandary. I mean no offense to our current group of linemen, the fact is that Nebraska's offensive line is nowhere near the powerhouse lines we had in the Osborne era. (Well, the fact is that no one has the offensive lines that Osborne had, largely because the defensive players have gotten that much better just like the six million dollar man - stronger and faster.)

Barney Cotton is still looking for someone to fill the right guard position, and losing both Lydon Murtha and Jaivorio Burkes at the right tackle position leaves that right side suspect. It doesn't give much confidence that we can rely on a tight set-based run game, but then there are the tight ends, Mike McNeill, Dreu Young, Ben Cotton and Kyler Reed. Surely there's a boost of confidence with such good depth and athleticism. Maybe get the running game going and then play-action to them like in the old days. McNeill and Reed have the speed to get behind defenses, while Young and Cotton have the size and strength to muscle up for the ball.

That's it, right? That's the offense we can expect to see. Right? Right?

Unfortunately, tight sets are diametrically opposed to the one theme that's made offenses in the Big 12 as explosive as they are right now - the spread formations. Regardless of the offensive philosophy - spread to run or pass - it seems that an offense must incorporate some elements of the spread to be successful.

If we spread to pass, we'll have to find more than one playmaker amongst our group of receivers. If we spread to run, will Shawn Watson allow Zac Lee to keep the ball knowing full well that if Lee is injured the next two quarterbacks have never taken a snap in a college game?

One of last year's bread and butter plays was the wide receiver screen because Todd Peterson and Nate Swift complemented each other so well. With both of them gone, will we see much of the play this season? Can Menelik Holt and Niles Paul complement each other in the same way?

I'm curious as to what other Husker fans have to say about our offense this season. What will this year's offense look like? What do you think will work? What will be the bread and butter plays off which we feast?

So many questions. Husker football fans are the best football geeks I know, so what say ye?

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Nebraska Cornhuskers

Seth C — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Cornhuskers are in year two of the Bo Pelini experience and from all accounts, Nebraska appears to be headed on the right path. Most are picking Nebraska to win the Big 12 North, which would be an impressive feat for just about anyone in their second year rebuilding a program. I can't say that I followed the Nebraska program as close as others, but from all accounts, Bill Callahan left the Nebraska program in shambles and Pelini has done an excellent job of getting back to "Nebraska football" which I think is great for the Big 12.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at Nebraska.

General Information

Opponent	University of Nebraska
Nickname	Cornhuskers
Location	Lincoln, NB
Enrollment	17,371 (Undergraduates)
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Bo Pelini
2008 Record	9-4 (5-3)
Starters Returning/Lost	13/9
Blogs	Corn Nation Big Red Network Double Extra Point
Links	2009 Roster 2009 Spring Fan Guide

Statistics


Statistic	Nebraska	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	281.00 (15)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	169.77 (37)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	450.77 (12)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	35.38 (17)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	154.46 (15)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	1.62 (43)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	233.38 (89)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	116.46 (21)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	349.85 (55)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	28.54 (80)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	133.95 (82)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	2.69 (14)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	6.31 (40)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	-0.85 (107)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Roy Helu, Jr. (125 / 803 yds / 7 TD)
Passing	Zac Lee (1-2 / 5 yds / 0 TD / 0 Int)
Receiving	Mike McNeill (632 rec. / 442 yds / 6 TD)
Tackles	Ndamukong Suh (76)
Sacks	Ndamukong Suh (7.5)
Interceptions	Ndamukong Suh and Anthony West(2)

A Few Things

Quarterbacking: It's not a stretch to say that there's not a ton of experience at the quarterback position. It appears that Zac Lee is going to be the starting in 2009 and I think it's safe to say that two passes does not constitute a lot of time on the field. That certainly doesn't mean that Lee can't play, but rather, Nebraska is one of a few Big 12 North teams (Missouri and Kansas State off the top of my head) replacing a quarterback this year. Lee was pretty good in the Nebraska spring game, and I'd be willing to bet that NU is going to take advantage of the short to intermediate passes, until Lee gets fully acclimated.
Suh Does It All: There's a reason that Ndamukong Suh was voted as the preseason defensive player of the year. When you lead your team in almost every statistical category, you're doing pretty good. The guy is flat-out dominant, and although the interior of the Texas Tech line generally does a pretty good job, Suh is going to be the player to watch for in in the 2009 game.
Finding Receivers: Nebraksa also faces the task of replacing their top two receivers from last year in Nate Swift (63 / 941 / 10 TD) and Todd Peterson (62 / 786 / 4). That's quite a bit of production to replace and I thought they were perfect receivers for Nebraska's passing offense in that they were tall, lanky guys that were all about keeping the chains moving. The 14 touchdowns are going to be difficult to replace, and NU's biggest returning receiver is TE Mike McNeill, who may is certainly one of the best tight ends in the Big 12.
I Think Nebraska is Just Fine at Running Back: Nebraska loses Marlon Lucky, who rushed for 517 yards and 7 touchdowns, but I don't think there's much to be concerned about as returning rusher Roy Helu, Jr. (839 yds; 7 TD) and Quentin Castille (467 yds; 6 TD) represents a formidable 1-2 punch. Castille looks to have some fairly serious break away speed as he averaged over 4 yards a carry, but in games where Castille had some opportunity, he produced, including games of 125 yards against Clemson.
Surprising TO Margin: I never would have guessed that Nebraska was this deficient in the turnover category, 107th in the nation. I would guess that this is something that's going to change this year. The surprising statistic is that the Cornhuskers dropped 17 fumbles on the carpet in 2008, which is a ton. I can't imagine that this trend will continue in 2009, and although Ganz threw 11 interceptions, I don't think he was the problem.
Replacing LB's: It doesn't take a seasoned blogger to notice that Nebraska has over twenty linebackers on their opening roster. That's just crazy. It appears that Nebraska will be replacing some depth at linebacker, but when you have over twenty possible replacements, I don't think that finding candidates will prove to be that difficult. Besides, for a team that was 21st in rush defense, this is likely to be an area where Nebraska will be just fine.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Nebraska Cornhuskers?

1

19 votes

2

45 votes

3

107 votes

4

161 votes

5

139 votes

471 votes | Poll has closed

Will Anyone Win the Big 12 North This Season?

TB — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

In case anyone was confused, of course the headline comprising the title of this post is a rhetorical question. No matter how bad the North champion is in comparison to the South champion, someone will be sent to Dallas to meet the winner (or winner*) of the South division.

That said, the Big 12 North may be as wide-open as it has ever been this season. It may be as bad as it's ever been, perhaps rivaling 2004, but that's another story for another day. With players reporting for fall camp and practice beginning this week, the question on everyone's mind is, of course: Who is going to win the North? Yesterday, I listened to Kevin Keitzman and Jack Harry, with nominal input from Danny Clinkscale, discuss this question at length on 810 WHB's Between the Lines.

Several teams can claim a legitimate shot at winning the North this season. Nebraska fans consider winning anything and everything associated with football their God-given birthright, so of course they expect to win the division this year. Down the river in Lawrence, KU has an entire advertising campaign titled "History Awaits." This would be an accurate slogan if the beaks were to win the division, as they remain grouped with Iowa State as the only two programs who have never won a single North crown. Missouri has won two straight North titles and rightly feels a bit slighted when relegated the status of afterthought in discussing the North. Out in Boulder, Dan Hawkins has tried to clarify his "10 wins and no excuses" comment, but there's still a feeling that the Buffs are a wildcard in the North this season.

When I initially considered this question sometime last spring, my knee-jerk reaction was that the North was probably Nebraska's for the taking this season. That sentiment may have arisen as much from my desire to see anyone other than KU win the North as my belief that Nebraska really was going to be a good team. But the more I thought about it, the more I could make an argument for, as well as against, any of the contenders.

My initial belief in Nebraska was based on the fact that some solid defensive playmakers like Ndamukong Suh and Barry Turner return for the (sort of) Big Red. Additionally, I figured that their main competition, KU, would probably wilt again under the weight of a crushing conference schedule against the South. However, further research indicated that the schedule argument could be made against Nebraska, too. The Huskers get the pleasure of trips to Lubbock and Waco, not to mention a visit from Oklahoma. That's not exactly the UT/OU/TTU gauntlet that faces KU, but it looks to me like a recipe for, at best, a 1-2 stretch against the South. Hell, if Robert Griffin and his cast of characters in Waco are as improved as their victory-hungry fans think they are, the trip to Waco is no sure thing, either.

In addition to the scheduling component, I had to consider the riotously funny exchange between Nebraska blogs and Missouri correspondent Mike DeArmond of the KC Star, and an insightful comment made to me last week by Bill C. of Rock M Nation. One of the big knocks against Missouri is that they lost their quarterback and two playmakers in WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman. Of course, Nebraska didn't face such similar losses. Except for losing QB Joe Ganz and WRs Nate Swift and Todd Peterson. Considering that Missouri was a demonstrably better football team than Nebraska the last two years, and has been on at least equal footing since about 2003, you can't simply eliminate Mizzou and elevate Nebraska on those grounds. Thus, my belief in Nebraska started to fade.

Onward, then, to the other fashionable preseason pick: KU. The beaks didn't face the loss of skill-position players like NU and Mizzou, as they return ~~Sodd~~ Todd Reesing at QB, Jake Sharp at RB, and Dezmon Briscoe at WR (at least as long as KU's crackerjack academic support staff makes sure he actually shows up at his classes this summer and fall). However, the beaks did face substantial losses on the offensive line -- which really wasn't much of a strength last season anyway -- and at linebacker, where all three starters from last season graduated. On top of that, everyone knows about the southern gauntlet KU faces this season, with trips to Austin and Lubbock and what is sure to be a pleasant visit to Lawrence from the Sooners. On top of that, KU faces Mizzou on a neutral field and gets to go to Boulder and visit a Colorado team it didn't exactly beat convincingly last season.

On Between the Lines yesterday, Keitzman came to the conclusion that the real wildcard in the North this season is Colorado, and I agree. If last season was an injury-addled aberration for the Buffs, they could be a contender in the North this season. Phil Steele agrees with that sentiment, and I'll generally follow Steele before I'll follow most partisans or regular journalists. But again, there's someting unsettling about relying on Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen at QB, and outside of the running back tandem of Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart, there aren't a whole lot of playmakers on offense. And that's to say nothing of the decimated defensive line.

Finally, that brings us to Mizzou. I'm sure some of you think that, because I'm discussing them last, this is the team I've picked to win the North. Not so, my friends. I can't pick a team that lost so much firepower from the last few seasons and that will be featuring 25-30 freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep to win the division. However, Gary Pinkel and the Tigers have a few things going for them that the other North schools don't. First, they're in a relatively stable situation as compared to the other divisional contenders, and they've been in that relatively stable condition at a higher level than the other divisional contenders. Yes, they lost their coordinators, and that's always a concern. However, they promoted from within and, by doing so probably have a better chance of maintaining continuity. Second, their recruiting has been mostly on par with that of the rest of the Big 12 North the last few seasons. Couple that with the fact that Missouri has been getting better production out of the players they've recruited, and you can't write the Tigers off just like that. On the flip side, the schedule isn't especially favorable, as Mizzou faces trips to Boulder and Manhattan and a neutral-site game with KU. Getting Nebraska at home is an obvious bonus.

You may have wondered why I didn't talk about K-State, given that this is a K-State site and I've already expressed my inability to control my inner-irrational fandom about the upcoming season. The most optimistic part of me does see a scenario where, if everything breaks in our favor and the new coaching staff gets this team together early, we could ~~surprise shock~~ flabbergast the world and win the North this season. Of course, that's if everything goes right, and experience tells us that it's the rare situation in life where literally everything falls one's way. As you'll see later this week or next week when we post our projections for Bill Snyder's first year in the second go-round, none of us are predicting a division title for the Cats.

Anyway, my conclusion is that I really don't have a damn clue who is going to win the North this season. It's entirely possible that we may have our second season in a row in which a three-way tiebreaker decides a division champion, because I could see Nebraska, KU and Mizzou/Colorado all going 5-3.

I will, however, almost guarantee that there'll be at least one really big surprise in how the North turns out this season. Maybe Nebraska will be a juggernaut. Or maybe they'll realize how much they miss Ganz/Swift/Peterson and Bo Pelini will be on the hot seat after a disappointing season. Maybe Blaine Gabbert will be as good as advertised and Mizzou will roll to a third-straight division crown. Or maybe he'll endure first-year struggles, they'll have no decent replacement for Maclin/Coffman, and the defense will continue to suck (outside Sean Weatherspoon) and the Tigers will have their worst conference season in several years. Maybe KU will collapse under the weight of its own schedule and go 3-5 (we could only be so lucky). Maybe Colorado has its breakout season. Maybe everything breaks in K-State's favor and we're planning a surprise trip to Dallas this fall. Maybe Iowa State...never mind.

Best Tight Ends in Husker Football History - Junior Miller, Johnny Mitchell, Matt Herian.... Mike McNeill?

Jon Johnston — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:00:12 -0000

In 2008, Mike McNeill set a Nebraska single season reception record as a tight end with 32 receptions. He averaged 13.8 yards per catch and finished the season with 442 yards and six touchdowns, one touchdown reception shy of the single-season tight end record held by Junior Miller (1979), Johnny Mitchell (1990) and Gerald Armstrong (1992).

McNeill finished 2008 third in receptions behind Nate Swift and Todd Peterson. He enters his junior year as the top returning receiver and with 33 career receptions is just past half way to Matt Herian's career reception record for tight ends at 65.

McNeill has the potential to be the best one of the best tight ends in school history, so I thought it'd be interesing to see how McNeill's career to this point compares to Nebraska's other great tight ends.

Junior Miller

Junior Miller played from 1977-1979 and is regarded as the best tight end in school history. When he finished his Husker career he held every receiving record for a tight end. Miller was first team All-Big 8 in 1978 and 1979 and was selected as a consensus All-American in 1979. He was also selected as the tight end on the Husker All-Century team that was put together through an online poll in 1999.

Miller was a dominating blocker (otherwise he wouldn't have been on the field in Tom Osborne's offense) and he possessed the speed needed to get behind the defense in the play-action passing game. His speed and playmaking ability are evident in the clips shown here.

(Clips were taken from "Greatest Plays of the of the 20th Century" by bestofbigred.com. "Greatest Plays" is a two DVD set consisting of four hours of plays. Pretty cool, especially for remembering all those plays from stars throughout Husker history. Clips require the Quicktime plug in.)

Miller represented the ultimate vision of a Husker tight end. As you watched the game, you knew the play-action play would come sooner or later - the fake into the line and the ball flying over the defense to a tight end running toward the end zone. There was something so beautiful about the anticipation of the ball in the air on those plays. Part of that beauty was that the defense knew the play would come sooner or later, but when it came it was set up so well there was little they could do to stop it. It was a back-breaking play for many teams.

Miller's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
1977	5	79	15.8	0
1978	33	609	18.5	6
1979	23	435	18.9	7
Career	61	1123	18.4	13

Note that Miller had 33 receptions in 1978, which means that McNeill's 32-catch 2008 season should haven't broken the single-season reception record, yet McNeill's reception record is recognized. Also note that the 2007 media guide shows a total of 55 career catches for Miller, but he had a total of 61 receptions. The discrepancies are because the NCAA did not include bowl games in statistics from 1946 to 2001. This was changed in 2002, largely because it should have been changed, but it's a great example of how difficult it is to compare players between eras.

Johnny Mitchell

You could make case that Johnny Mitchell was the best tight end to ever play for the Huskers. Mitchell had a career-high 31 receptions in 1991. For those who never saw Mitchell play - think of him as Jeremy Shockey, complete with the talent and the big mouth. He never stopped talking, but like Shockey, if you threw the ball anywhere near him, he could make the reception as is evident in the two clips of him shown here.

The second clip shows a Mitchell catch during the ‘91 Oklahoma game. The game began as a nightmare, with the Huskers giving the Sooner three fumbles and a 14-0 lead early in the game. The Huskers fought back - and I remember the catch. It came on a crucial third and nine play. Mitchell came up with that reception to keep the drive alive. He was amazing and finished the game with seven receptions for 137 yards.

Unfortunately, Mitchell is largely forgotten by Husker fans - he doesn't even rank a bio entry at Huskers.com. This is because Mitchell left Nebraska after his sophomore season to enter the NFL draft, where he was selected in the first round as the 17th overall pick by the New York Jets. My heart broke when I saw his name appear on the NFL draft ticker. I couldn't believe it - I was depressed for a week.

Mitchell's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
1990	11	282	25.6	7
1991	31	534	17.2	5
Career	42	816	19.4	12

Matt Herian

Matt Herian holds the tight end career reception record with 65 catches, playing from 2002-2006. Herian was a perfect fit as a tight end in Bill Callahan's West Coast offense, and played in 12 games as a true freshman. He had an amazing season, averaging 43 yards per catch, with four of his seven receptions going for touchdowns.

In his sophomore season, he averaged 22 yards per catch and gained first-team All-Big 12 recognition as he finished as the top Husker receiver with 484 yards and 22 receptions. In 2004, his junior season, Herian was on his way to setting single-season records when he suffered a severe broken leg against Missouri, ending his season. At the time of his injury, Herian was the leading receiver with 24 receptions, 308 yards and three touchdowns. Despite missing nearly half of the conference games, he gained honors as second-team All Big 12.

Herian sat out 2005, but returned to the field in 2006, picking up 12 receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was unable to regain his former form and his injury ended up destroying his chance as a potential NFL first-round draft pick. Despite the injury, Herian remains one of the best tight ends in Husker history.

Herian's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
2002	7	301	43	4
2003	22	484	22	3
2004	24	308	12.8	3
2005 - RedShirt	-	-	-	-
2006	12	150	12.5	2
Career	65	1243	19.1	12

Today's Tight End

Tthe offense has changed a lot since Osborne's teams overpowered their opponents on the ground and then used play-action to break their hearts through the air. Despite those changes the attributes that made Junior Miller a great tight end are the same that are required of Mike McNeill should he ascend to Miller's level.

McNeill has displayed playmaking abilities in the passing game. Much like Miller and Herian, McNeill has shown the speed needed to get behind the defense and come up with big plays in the process. In order to duplicate his success in 2008, he will have to display Mitchell's ability to catch the ball in traffic as defenses will be watching out for him much more this coming season. He must develop further as a dominating blocker as the Huskers must have a good run game in order to achieve offensive balance.

As Nebraska's top returning receiver, big things are expected of McNeill this coming season. If he can deliver, he takes another step towards being one of the best tight ends in Husker history.

Cornhusker Kickoff 2009 - The Nebraska Football Yearbook For the Die Hard Fan

Jon Johnston — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:00:35 -0000

View full size photo »

As editor, I'm proud to announce this year's Husker football yearbook Cornhusker Kickoff 2009. Unlike other preseason magazines that have only a couple of pages about your favorite football team, Cornhusker Kickoff 2009 is all about the Huskers and this upcoming season.

The format has changed somewhat this season. The yearbook is longer (128 pages compared to 112 last year), and it has a look and feel more like a preseason football magazine. There are a lot more photos, and a lot more relevant stats, particularly in the position breakdowns. One important thing stays the same - it's a full 128 pages of content with absolutely NO ads. Obviously, I'm biased, but it's one fine-looking item to have in your possession for the upcoming season.

The yearbook is available for ordering online at Huskerpedia and Maple Street Press. It will be available in stores later in July across Nebraska wherever you can find other preseason college football magazines.

After last year's inaugural issue, A Sea of Red, we changed the name this season. To be honest, I liked the name A Sea of Red better, but unfortunately distributors (the people who need to buy the book and get it into circulation) weren't recognizing the link between A Sea of Red and Cornhusker football, so a name change was in order. Cornhusker Kickoff is a little cheesier, but if it helps sell the book so that more people see it, the better. Ah, the realities of business.

Click the jump for a look at the contents.

If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. To post a comment, you must be a member of Corn Nation. Accounts are free and shared across the entire SB Nation network of sports blogs.

Table of Contents is as follows:

Building On The Foundation: 2009 Cornhusker Position Breakdown

by Jon Johnston - A complete breakdown of the 2009 team by unit, with position analysis, returning statistics and record holders.

Know Your Enemy: Cornhuskers 2009 Schedule Analysis

by Jon Johnston - An extensive look at the opponents for the upcoming season

The First Step In Restoration

by Mike Jaixen - a review of the 2008 season

Ready To Lead

by Tad Stryker of Huskerpedia - an interview with Ndamukong Suh about his role as a leader

The Pursuit Of Chemistry

by Brian Christopherson of Husker Extra - the challenge of replacing Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson. It isn't just about the stats.

Adjusting To Personnel

by Mike Jaixen - A look at how offensive coordinator Shawn Watson adjusts his offense to the personnel at hand, a preview of what we can expect this sason.

Five Who Make The Year

by Darren Carlson of Big Red Network - Five players who will make the season a success

And... Five You Need To Watch

by Darren Carlson - Five more players you need to be aware of who'll make a difference

Game Of Cycles, Man Of Tradition

by Adam Nettina of In the Bleachers - An outsider's look at Bo Pelini's first year as a head coach

Meet The Freshmen

by Brandon Cavanaugh - a look at the 2009 recruiting class, including walk-ons. The photos here are much improved over last season's edition.

The Power Of Red... Shirts

by Darren Carlson - Bo Pelini redshirted a lot of players last season that will make an impact this year.

The State Of Husker Athletics

by Steve Sipple of Husker Extra - an interview with Tom Osborne about the current state of the Nebraska athletic department

The Great Wide Open

by Darren Carlson - A look at the wide open Big 12 North

Return To Prominence

by Brandon Vogel of Big Red Network - What will it take for the Cornhuskers to reach the top?

Bob vs. The Bear

by Brandon Vogel of Big Red Network - People remember Bob Devaney as a humorist more than a coach, it seems, but this article will convince to look at him in a different way

"Thunder" Thornton

by David Max - "Big Red Max" of Huskerpedia - Who Was Bob "Thunder" Thornton and why was he important to the foundation of Nebraska football

Nebraska Gamedays

by Mark Fricke - A look back at what Husker gamedays were like in yesteryear.

Paydirt! Touchdown! Six Points!

by Mark Fricke - the Huskers will score their 4000th touchdown this season. A look at milestone touchdowns throughout Husker history

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.