SB Nation - Ty Steinkuhler

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers Team Capsule

Jon Johnston — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:32:52 -0000

The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Nebraska team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece in conjunction with CBS Sports.

Expect the Blackshirt defense to be much improved in Bo Pelini's season. They should carry Nebraska to a Big 12 North win this season. Photo by Dennis Hubbard

The Outlook

Anything less than winning the Big 12 North will be a disappointment. The success of the 2009 Husker offense will depend on Nebraska establishing a firm ground attack, providing time for Lee and the receiving corps to develop into a balanced attack. If the Huskers find themselves one-dimensional, they'll have to rely on their defense to carry them to the Big 12 Championship game, but the margin for error will be very thin.

Offense

In 2009, the offense begins with I-backs Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille. In 2008, Helu was bothered by a shoulder injury at the start of the season, but emerged as a star in November, rushing for 510 yards and five touchdowns in the final four games. For the season, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry, which is the highest of any returning back in the North division. Castille was the third back most of the season, but rushed for 125 yards in the Gator Bowl.

Replacing Joe Ganz at quarterback will be junior Zac Lee. Lee, who played sparingly last season, might be Nebraska's most talented quarterback since Eric Crouch. At San Francisco City College in 2006, Lee threw for over 3400 yards and 35 touchdowns. Lee is mobile as well, with 4.6 speed.

Nebraska's top returning receiver is tight end Mike McNeill, who'll probably be the best tight end in the conference not named Jermaine Gresham. Menelik Holt and Niles Paul look to be the top two wide receivers in 2009. Holt was hampered by a knee injury that caused him to miss most of four games last season. Paul's biggest contributions to date have been on kick returns, with an 85 yard touchdown return against San Jose State last season. A group of inexperienced but talented receivers will fight for playing time and to fill out the remaining positions.

Three starters return up front, including honorable mention all-Big XII center Jacob Hickman, who may move to guard this season. Juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith return to anchor the left side of the line. If Hickman moves to right guard, sophomore Mike Caputo will take over at center. Other candidates for the right side include tackle Marcel Jones and guards D.J. Jones and Ricky Henry.

Defense

The defense is lead by pre-season All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who is also a top-ten NFL draft prospect. The defense will be dependent upon Suh to make plays or occupy enough blockers to make them better. Expect sophomore Jared Crick to start alongside Suh, with redshirt freshman Baker Steinkuhler in the rotation.

Defensive end Barry Turner returns this season after breaking his leg in early 2008. Pierre Allen did an excellent job filling in his position last season. Between Suh, Crick, Turner and Allen, Nebraska's defensive line should be one of the best in the conference this season.

At linebacker, no fewer than ten players are fighting for three starting positions. Phillip Dillard returns as the most experienced of the bunch, but after a lackluster spring must fight his way back into the starting rotation. Pelini has so far refused to name starters to keep the competition going, but you could expect redshirt freshmen Will Compton and Sean Fisher to win some starts, along with sophomore Matthew May.

The secondary returns with much more depth than the previous season. Prince Amukamara and Anthony West return as starters at the corners. Anthony Blue returns after sitting out 2008 with a knee injury. Lance Thorrell should reprise his role in the dime package. Larry Asante is the top returning starter at safety, and should make the All-Big 12 list by the end of the season. Eric Hagg should keep his spot as the other starting safety, splitting time with Matt O'Hanlon. Rickey Thenarse must have a good fall camp to fight off redshirt freshmen Courtney Osborne and P.J. Smith. The defensive secondary had too many break downs last season, but that should be much improved this year.

In a single season, Bo Pelini turned around a defense that finished near the bottom of the nation in several categories, and had them playing well enough to finish as one of the top defenses in the Big 12 by season's end. With a year of understanding Pelini's system behind them, expect the Blackshirt defense to become the bright spot for Husker fans this season.

Special Teams

Alex Henery returns as one of the most accurate kickers in the nation. In 2008, Henery went 18-21 in field goals and made 56 of 57 PATs. The Huskers will have to replace holder Jake Wesch and long snapper T.J. O'Leary, who have handled those duties over the past three seasons.

Kickoff specialist Adi Kunalic returns after finishing fifth the nation in touchbacks last season, giving the Huskers a formidable weapon in the kicking game. Henery may pull double duty and handle punting duty, a task for which he was originally recruited.

Nate Swift was the team's primary punter last season and must be replaced after having moved on this season. Niles Paul showed some promise returning punts, and should be more consistent this season. Newcomers Rex Burkhead and Antonio Bell will be considered as will redshirt freshman Tim Marlowe.

Niles Paul looks likely to replay his role as a kick returner after having a decent year in 2008. Two of the top five plays last season were Paul kick returns, including a 85-yard touchdown return against San Jose State. Alfonzo Dennard was one of only three true freshman to play last season and should handle return duties again this season. Sophomore Curenski Gilleylen and newcomers Burkhead and Antonio Bell may get their chance as well.

Kickoff coverage must get better as Nebraska finished 105th in the nation in last season. Watch for Bo Pelini to include some talented newcomers to the coverage team this season as the Huskers look for every edge possible to win the Big 12 North.

Key Losses

Joe Ganz, QB - The former bench warmer that nobody believed in until Sam Keller injured his collarbone. He came in and promptly put up three straight 400 yard games and showed a gritty resolve that endeared him to Husker fans. He leaves after setting 23 school records, including season records for passing yardage.

Nate Swift, WR - Departs as the Huskers record holder for career receptions, and ranks second for yards receiving all-time. Some might consider him a "possession" receiver, but he also had decent speed. In his senior season, he ranked 2nd in the Big XII and eighth nationally in punt returns.

Todd Peterson, WR - Along with Swift, gave Joe Ganz two dependable receivers. The pair combined for 125 receptions and over 1,700 yards.

Marlon Lucky, IB - The former five-star recruit never quite lived up to the hype from his high school days, but was a versatile weapon in all facets of the passing game.

Matt Slauson, OL - The anchor of the Husker offensive line the last few years, Slauson was drafted in the 6th round by the New York Jets, where he'll be reunited with Jets offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

Lydon Murtha, OL - Murtha was an enigma for the Huskers, as he had all of the measurables to be an impressive offensive line prospect, but never developed the consistency to be that dominant lineman that some projected. The Detroit Lions were impressed enough to take him in the seventh round of the NFL draft.

Zach Potter, DE - Potter became a dominant end in his final two seasons, showing a knack for deflecting passes and kicks. Last season, he blocked three kicks and deflected two passes to Ndamukong Suh, who returned both for touchdowns.

Ty Steinkuhler, DT - Steinkuhler was a bit of an unsung hero until the Gator Bowl last season. His presence prevented offenses from double-teaming Ndamukong Suh, as Clemson quickly learned.

Armando Murillo, CB - Nebraska's lone loss in the secondary, he was the Huskers most consistent performer in the secondary.

Dan Titchener, P - Three year starter who averaged 39.9 yards per punt in his career.

Newcomers

Pelini has already shown his penchant for retaining redshirts, so you shouldn't expect to see a lot of brand new faces this year.

Baker Steinkuhler, DT - Another Steinkuhler, the departing Ty's little brother. Should see plenty of playing time this season.

Will Compton, LB - the most likely middle linebacker of the future for the Blackshirt defense.

Sean Fisher, LB - having a break-out fall camp, should be expected to get a lot of starts this season.

Rex Burkhead, RB/KR/PR/? - Burkhead was a ‘do everything' guy in in high school, playing running back, quarterback, receiver, returning punts and kicks, along with taking out the trash. Truly a versatile player, probably too skilled to remain on the sideline this season as a true freshman.

Antonio Bell & Brandon Kinnie, WR - A pair of young wide receivers that should make some contributions and break into the starting rotation by the end of the season.

Big 12 Projected Order Of Finish:

North

Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State

South
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

2009 Opponent Previews

Atlantic Owls
Arkansas St. Red Wolves
Virginia Tech Hokies
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Missouri Tigers
Texas Tech Red Raiders owa St. Cyclones
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas St. Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

DE Ty Steinkuhler signs with the Cincinnati Bengals? Denied. He signed with the NY Jets

Kirkendall — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:12:45 -0000

It was originally reported by Joe Reedy and some New England Patriots blog that the Cincinnati Bengals signed defensive end Ty Steinkuhler from Nebraska as one of several undrafted free agents. However, these signings appear to be mostly speculation outside the team's acknowledgments while Bengals.com remains dark on the subject. I also acknowledge that maybe I missed them, but the undrafted free agents are still absent from the team's roster. So for the time being, we have to rely on other outlets to get our information.

Steinkuhler, one of the undrafted free agents, was originally reported as having signed with the Bengals. However, Scout NFL Network, by way of Scout.com, writes:

Numerous media outlets reported that Nebraska DT Ty Steinkuhler had agreed to terms or signed with the Cincinnati Bengals as a rookie free agent, but Scout.com has been told by his agent that Steinkuhler has actually signed a contract with the New York Jets.

Resetting the weekend; draft picks and undrafted free agents

Kirkendall — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:34:05 -0000

I know there's a lot of new stuff that's happened this weekend that will take some time to process -- and I'll do my best to present it easily rather than a bunch of posts detailing the acquisitions. For the time being, here's a run down of players that the Bengals selected in the draft and reportedly after the draft.

In the NFL Draft

Round	Overall	Selection
1	6	OT Andre Smith, Alabama
2	38	LB Rey Maualuga, USC
3	70	DE Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech
3	98	TE Chase Coffman, Missouri
4	106	C Jonathan Luigs, Arkansas
5	142	Punter Kevin Huber, UC
6	179	CB Morgan Trent, Michigan
6	209	RB Bernard Scott, Abilene Christian
7	215	RB Fui Vakapuna, BYU
7	249	DT Clinton McDonald, Memphis
7	252	WR Freddie Brown, Utah

After the Draft, undrafted free agents (reported by Joe Reedy)

Player	Position	School
Quan Cosby	WR	Texas
Marlon Lucky	RB	Nebraska
Billy Farris	QB	Colorado State
Ty Steinkuhler	DE	Nebraska
Colin Dow	C	Montana

H/T to "the1austin" for finding another list that included all of the above, save for quarterback Billy Farris.

Player	Position	School
Dan Skuta	DL	Grand Valley St
Chris Pressley	FB	Wisconsin
Tom Nelson	S	Illinois State
Greg Orton	TE	Purdue

That's reportedly nine undrafted free agents, 11 drafted players, giving you a total of 20 new prospects on the team.

Keys to the Game: Kansas

Blankman — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:00:06 -0000

After a merciless pounding in Norman, Nebraska returns home to what sounds like the welcoming but chilly confines of Memorial Stadium. Their next foe: The Fightin’ Manginos! The Jayhawks offer up an honest challenge for the Huskers and many feel there’s next to no shot for the Cornhuskers to pick up a “W”. PHOOEY to that, I say! I think Nebraska has an honest chance to go 3-0 in the final stretch here. Of course it’s one game at a time so let’s talk about what needs to be done to clip the Jayhawk’s wings.

1.) Bring the “Hyde” out of Reesing – Todd Reesing is a great quarterback, but in the Big XII that seems to come standard like a CD player in a car these days. Still, he can do damage and that’s the last thing that Nebraska’s back seven wants to hear. Zach Potter, Ty Steinkuhler and Ndamukong Suh need to break through and do damage. The latter needs to have himself some monster games if he wants to succeed and find fame and fortune in the NFL. There’d be no better day to come out and slam Reesing to the turf. It’s no secret that there is a “Hyde” to his “Jekyll” and if Nebraska pulls it out of him, we could see one of the finest defensive displays of the season.

2.) It’s Lucky or Helu – Unfortunately for Quentin Castille he puts more balls on the carpet than a CEO with a cocktail glass and a putter. Right now Lucky doesn’t seem to be in the best of shape, either. I admire the guy for all he’s done, but he can only do so much. Helu is a young, raw talent who I can’t wait to see grow within the program along with many others, but regardless of how injured Lucky is, both he and Roy need to carry the rock not Castille. At this point, I’d say it’s linebacker or bust for Quentin. If Nebraska wants to win out, it can’t be with #19 carrying the rock with any less than half of a yard line to go and even that’s iffy.

3.) Keep Bo Happy – Well…Bo being “happy” is a relative term. I suppose “Keep Bo less red in the face” would be a more appropriate request. There are some aspects of Bo’s gameday attitude I really like. He’s attentive, he knows what’s going on from all angles, but he’s letting things get to him far too easily. I’d like to think he will look back on what’s happened so far and end 2008 out with a nice, solid demeanor for the most part. Hey, we can’t expect the guy to stop hollering at the refs overnight. Still, he has to reign in his temper at some point. If he doesn’t, we’re not going to get calls going our way and that can, and I can almost guarantee you will, play as a big negative recruiting point.

In Summary: Nebraska has to play focused much like they did versus Texas Tech. They’re at home and they want to put on a show for the crowd. I say let ‘em. Last week’s first play shows that obviously it’s time to go to page 26 of the playbook blind and see what your finger lands on. Start out slow, make a bit of progress then begin with the screwing of the minds. Mangino is a crafty coach and a good fella, but he can be beaten and that is one thing that Bo knows.

Poll

Which Key is Most Important Vs. Kansas?

Bring the "Hyde" out of Reesing

36 votes

It’s Lucky or Helu

18 votes

Keep Bo Happy

9 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed

Mizzou-Nebraska: Preview and Predictions thread

Bill C. — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 21:30:05 -0000

I was looking back at the first posts made on RMN recently...and it reminded me that last year, along with the BTBS piece, I threw together a unit-by-unit preview of the upcoming game as well. How's about we try that again?

Oh yeah, and leave your own predictions and/or random comments in the comments below.

QB vs QB

I can honestly say without hesitation that Mizzou would win this category against any team in the country. This one needs no explanation. Advantage: Mizzou.

MU RBs vs NU LBs

I'll say this: Cody Glenn has worked out better at LB than I thought he would--you'd figure there would be a one-year transition period, but he's stepped up well and is leading the Huskers in tackles from his weakside LB position. He's even 3rd on the team in tackles for loss, plus he's broken up three passes and forced a fumble. Problem is, his counterparts have been underwhelming. Phillip Dillard is okay, but the strongside LB position has produced next to nothing. Granted, they'll likely be in a nickel most of Saturday, but regardless, this LB unit is still limited.

Oh yeah, and Derrick Washington is really, really good. Advantage: Mizzou.

MU WRs/TEs vs NU DBs

NU Secondary = work in progress. MU receiving corps = best in America. Advantage: Mizzou.

MU O-line vs NU D-line

This is an interesting matchup; it will probably be where the game is decided. The starting front four for Nebraska--Zach Potter, Ndamukong Suh, Ty Steinkuhler, and Pierre Allen--has been downright solid for the Huskers. There are two problems, however.

1) Though we've heard pretty good things about freshman DE Cameron Meredith, there is almost no depth whatsoever with this unit. Their rotation is small, which means either a) they continue with their small rotation against Missouri and wear down by the third quarter, or b) they open up a big rotation to keep guys fresh, and a lot of guys who are either too inexperienced or not good enough to have earned playing time get a lot of snaps. Either way, that's a bad thing for Nebraska.

2) Illinois' D-line is likely better than the Husker unit, and Illinois got little to no pressure on Chase Daniel. Maybe you've heard this once or twice on RMN, ahem, but getting pressure on Chase Daniel with your front four is your only means of survival against the Mizzou offense. Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown are proving to be a ridiculously good set of bookend tackles.

In other words, Advantage: Mizzou.

NU RBs vs MU LBs

Even though I've never been as high on Marlon Lucky as some, I still always saw him as a solid back, particularly on 3rd down. He's picking a bad time to not live up to even my expectations. Granted, there's still a lot of time left in his senior season, but he just hasn't been very dynamic at all. Sophomore Roy Helu Jr. seems to have passed him in terms of potential and upside, and fellow sophomore Quentin Castille is getting the short-yardage carries. It's now a three-headed RB attack for Nebraska, and last week's 15-carry, 46-yard performance from the RBs against Virginia Tech didn't exactly fill me with the fear that Nebraska will be able to control the pace and grind out the clock with the running game. They'll have to rely on the short passing game for that.

Oh yeah, and Brock Christopher and Sean Weatherspoon are freaking fantastic. Advantage: Mizzou.

NU WRs/TEs vs MU DBs

I realize I'm a lot more confident than some regarding the Mizzou secondary. I think an 85%-healthy William Moore is still possibly the best safety in the conference, and I think Carl Gettis continues to be the most underrated defensive player in the country. Seriously, people haven't started wondering why seemingly every #1 WR playing Mizzou in the last 18 games has been a complete non-factor? Gettis is the primary reason why, and while I'm sure Nate Swift will get some catches, the Huskers will likely have to rely on other receivers for the big-play threat.

The Huskers have some potential at WR--I like big Menelik Holt quite a bit, and Niles Paul has proven himself valuable in the return game at least (which means there's some athletic potential there). Plus, Todd Peterson is nothing if not steady. I can see a solid 5-catch, 65-yard day out of him. And any day now, Chris Brooks is going to live up to his 4-star billing. Just kidding.

This unit doesn't scare me to death, and since half of Mizzou's secondary is as rock solid as rock solid gets, I'm almost giving Mizzou the advantage here. But until the unit gels as a whole--until whatever communication problems that have existed get remedied, and until a consistent second CB comes to the forefront--I can't do it. Advantage: Nebraska.

NU O-line vs MU D-line

It's been hard to figure out the Mizzou defensive line. Ziggy Hood dominated August practices like no other--not a day went by when a new story of him torturing a right guard didn't emerge--but he didn't do a whole lot against Illinois. He's steadily improved each game since, but we'll see what he can do against another BCS-level O-line. Meanwhile, Stryker Sulak was amazing against Illinois, but he's done next to nothing since. He's actually been outplayed by fellow starting DE Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis. If Sulak, Chavis and Hood ever start finding a rhythm at the same time, the sky is the limit with this unit.

Meanwhile, the NU O-line has been...decent. Not great, not terrible...not a strength, not a liability. If Sulak's only playing okay, this matchup is a draw. But big games bring out good things from him, so...Advantage: Mizzou.

Special Teams

As I mentioned the other day in my BTBS piece, Nebraska's got a solid special teams unit. Problem is, Mizzou's got a really, really good one. Advantage: Mizzou.

Coaching

The first time a Gary Pinkel team took on a Bo Pelini defense, this happened. Oh yeah, and only one of the two head coaches has thrown a hissy fit on the sidelines and gotten his team a crippling penalty because of it. Hint: it wasn't Pinkel. Advantage: Mizzou.

Karma

Here's a tough one. Thirty years of bad results in Lincoln = Advantage: Nebraska. Chase Daniel wanting to avenge the worst performance of his career = Advantage: Mizzou. Because I'm a still-scarred Mizzou fan, I'll lean toward the latter, but barely. Advantage: Nebraska.

You know what? The scars healed last year. Advantage: Mizzou.

Summary

That's a 9-1 advantage for Mizzou. Throw in home-field advantage, and it's 9-2. I'll say one more time that we're going to get everything Nebraska has tomorrow, but you know what? It's not going to be enough. I'll stick with what I said on Tuesday: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

Crossfire: Nebraska Q&A

RPT — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:15:04 -0000

To get a better look at what we should expect from Nebraska this weekend, we turned to our colleagues at Corn Nation for a Q&A. My responses to CN are available here.

1. So, four games into the Pelini era, what have we learned about Nebraska so far?

Blankman: This is clearly a rebuilding year for the program as a whole. There is solid talent but I would argue that there is not the proper staff to coach every aspect of the team and perform other duties. I think that Bo is finding his head coach identity and it’s going to take a year or two to truly find if it’s simply intensity that defines him.

Husker Mike: Sadly, the coaching change hasn't corrected as many problems as we had hoped. While our red zone defense has improved significantly, we still struggle with fundamentals. On offense, we're way too inconsistent and struggle with running the ball.

Corn Blight: It’s going to be a tough road back and it isn’t going to happen all in a single season. I knew that already. I fear for the sanity of those who thought that the return of Tom Osborne and hiring Bo Pelini would automatically give us seven points to start the game.

With regards to the team on the field, I’m disappointed that we’re not more physical than we are, and that particularly is true on the offensive line. I had hoped these guys would be monsters, and so far that’s not been the case. Apparently you can’t flush Bill Callahan’s influence in only a few games.

I figured the secondary would be a work in progress, but I thought that our safeties would be fine.

2. What are the biggest lessons Nebraska took out of the home loss to Virginia Tech? What deficiencies exposed during the game worry you the most when it comes to matching up with Mizzou?

Blankman: If you want to beat Nebraska, put eight men in the box and throw on offense.

Husker Mike: Several times, Nebraska's secondary couldn't cover Tech's young receivers. Fortunately, Tech's Tyrod Taylor missed those wide-open receivers. Chase Daniel won't.

Corn Blight: There’s still a lot of work to do in the secondary, and there’s still a huge problem with consistency. Some of this is due to playing young guys and learning a new defense, but some of it is a lackadaisical attitude that hasn’t yet been cleansed from the program.

3. The blueprint for slowing down Mizzou's offense is generating pressure with four down linemen. Do you expect Nebraska to be able to generate that kind of pressure?

Blankman: Not unless changes are made. Pierre Allen looked far too slow against Virginia Tech whereas Cameron Meredith appeared to look very fast and capable of playing from a linebacker or lineman’s spot. If Meredith doesn’t get his fair share of snaps against Mizzou, someone’s got naked pictures.

Husker Mike: One area where there is clear improvement on defense is on the defensive line. Ndamakong Suh has been living up to his reputation, and Ty Steinkuhler has been a force as well. Zach Potter has continued his strong play from last season. By that same manner, Nebraska hasn't faced an offense like Missouri's yet. But there is a glimmer of hope that the defensive line can get Daniel out of rhythm occasionally.

Corn Blight: Yes, I do. Ndamukong Suh has played pretty well (other than a costly penalty against VaTech), coming up with a couple sacks, an interception which was returned for a TD, and a forced fumble. I disagree with Blankman in that I think Pierre Allen has done decently for a young guy taking over for the injured Barry Turner. Allen is third in tackles and has a sack of his own.

We could see more rotation on the front four so they’d stay fresher later in the game.

(More questions after the jump)

4. What should Mizzou fans expect from the Nebraska offense? Are the Tigers going to get a healthy dose of Castille, Helu and Lucky out of the backfield?

Blankman: Marlon Lucky and Roy Helu will be Mizzou’s primary concerns out of the backfield. I would also look to see a concentrated effort to get Nate Swift, Todd Peterson and Menelik Holt the ball via the air. Joe Ganz will run some option as well.

Husker Mike: We'd like to think so...but the I-backs were spectators for the most part against Virginia Tech. Marlon Lucky will start, but beware of Roy Helu when he gets into the game in the second half. Otherwise, watch out for the tight ends on play action and the wide receiver screens. Unless, of course, Shawn Watson has been playing rope-a-dope the last few weeks.

Corn Blight: I would prefer that we run the ball consistently and only go to the air when play-action is necessary. The only way I see us winning this game is in limiting the Tigers’ opportunities, keep the game relatively low scoring.

Okay, honestly, Husker fans don’t even know what to expect out of this offense. Part of that is because it’s multiple - meaning we should be able to run or throw dependent upon what the defense is giving us. Part of that is because one week we look like we could run over people, the next week we miss a bunch of assignments, aren’t physical enough or the quarterback decides to have a bad game as was the case against Virginia Tech. We’ve yet to play a complete game. Maybe we’re due.

5. You've made no secret of your belief that Lincoln will once again harness Chase Daniel like it did in 2006. As an opposing fan, what do you think it will take for Daniel to exorcise the demons you love to mention?

Blankman: Throwing the football.

Husker Mike: I think if Daniel plays like he has this season and Gary Pinkel doesn't interfere, he stands an excellent chance of exorcising those demons.

Corn Blight: I haven’t have I? Ha! If you were in my shoes, what would you do - maybe play up the biggest asset you have (haven’t won in Lincoln in 30 years mantra), over and over until people are tired of hearing it (think: election year)?

The only thing Daniel has to do is be himself. He’s an excellent quarterback and Mizzou has an excellent team. The biggest thing I’d be worried about is whether or not his head swells too large to fit into a helmet.

On the other hand, Nebraska was embarrassed in Columbia last season and they haven’t forgotten it. The fourth quarter fake field goal provides all the bulletin board material the Cornhuskers need for this game. If Missouri comes into the game believing that all they need to do is show up, then we may see Oregon State vs USC again this week.

Staying with that theme, this is a great game to see whether the whole of Nebraska’s team is going to play with urgency. I would love to see us win this game, but it will be more interesting to see if every one of our guys fights until it’s over.

6. In June, you predicted a 35-31 win for Nebraska. Do you stand by your prediction, or would you care to tweak it?

Blankman says: Missouri 45 Nebraska 20

Corn Blight: Slightly. Nebraska 31-30.

I based the prediction on Nebraska getting turnovers and I’ll stick with that. Is it a homerific pick? You’re damned right it is.

There’s one more thing to mention. It’s been a while since Missouri experienced their famous bad luck, so perhaps the good karma well has run dry. Maybe we’ll see another "Fifth Down" or "Flea Kicker" play that determines the outcome of the game. I’ve been extra nice to everyone around me this week just to see if it’ll tip the scale.

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 16:00:06 -0000

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Nebraska	Opponents		Missouri	Opponents
59.4%		% Close	51.9%
45.7%	54.3%	Field Position %	58.5%	41.5%
71.2%	67.4%	Leverage %	76.2%	66.6%

		Total
243	282	Plays	290	317
114.58	81.79	EqPts	163.85	87.14
46.5%	38.7%	Success Rate	58.3%	38.8%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.57	0.27
0.937	0.677	S&P	1.148	0.663

		Close Games
141	171	Plays	182	133
67.07	49.82	EqPts	108.33	35.11
44.7%	40.9%	Success Rate	59.9%	37.6%
0.48	0.29	PPP	0.60	0.26
0.922	0.701	S&P	1.194	0.640

		Rushing
46.94	36.55	EqPts	60.64	21.96
42.4%	36.3%	Success Rate	51.9%	37.4%
0.38	0.27	PPP	0.47	0.17
0.800	0.634	S&P	0.989	0.542
2.82	2.52	Line Yds/carry	3.31	2.23

		Passing
67.64	45.24	EqPts	103.21	65.18
50.8%	40.8%	Success Rate	63.4%	39.8%
0.57	0.31	PPP	0.64	0.35
1.082	0.716	S&P	1.275	0.748

		Non-Passing Downs
54.3%	45.3%	Success Rate	62.9%	44.5%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.31
1.071	0.766	S&P	1.228	0.754

		Passing Downs
27.1%	25.0%	Success Rate	43.5%	27.4%
0.33	0.24	PPP	0.46	0.21
0.605	0.491	S&P	0.890	0.481

		Turnovers
7	6	Total	5	7
11.66	18.12	Points Lost	14.68	18.27
23.69	18.12	Points Given	12.31	33.76
35.35	36.24	Total T/O Pts	26.99	52.03
+0.89	-0.89	T/O Pts Margin	+25.04	-25.04

		Q1
46.8%	42.9%	Success Rate	60.8%	41.5%
0.49	0.30	PPP	0.65	0.25
0.957	0.727	S&P	1.254	0.667

		Q2
42.6%	40.8%	Success Rate	62.0%	38.6%
0.45	0.27	PPP	0.65	0.26
0.880	0.680	S&P	1.272	0.650

		Q3
49.1%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	37.8%
0.49	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.33
0.982	0.779	S&P	1.212	0.704

		Q4
47.7%	25.0%	Success Rate	46.8%	37.8%
0.46	0.28	PPP	0.32	0.26
0.932	0.528	S&P	0.789	0.638

		1st Downs
55.3%	41.5%	Success Rate	61.1%	43.3%
0.59	0.31	PPP	1.01	0.34
1.138	0.723	S&P	1.623	0.773

		2nd Downs
38.9%	34.8%	Success Rate	60.2%	34.0%
0.41	0.21	PPP	0.53	0.22
0.800	0.561	S&P	1.131	0.561

		3rd Downs
35.6%	38.5%	Success Rate	48.8%	34.3%
0.29	0.32	PPP	0.45	0.21
0.642	0.708	S&P	0.936	0.553

Thoughts...

Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Mizzou-Nebraska Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 21.02
Projection #1: 28.74
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts+: 78.53
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 20.64

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 24.69

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0. Mizzou's rushing offense is better in '08, and so is NU's rushing defense. I'm bumping this down a hair, but I still think we're seeing a window of major opportunity here. Derrick Washington could have a monster day.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.31
Projection #1: 20.87
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts+: 102.29
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 17.99

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 19.43

Adjusted for 2008: 20.0. Again, NU's pass defense is better than last year's...but Mizzou's pass offense has gone to a new level. If NU can't get pressure on Chase Daniel from its D-line, they're dead meat.

Nebraska Rushing

2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts+: 99.81
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 8.27
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 10.03
Projection #2: 8.23

Projected Nebraska Rushing Output: 8.25

Adjusted for 2008: 7.0. NU's got little to no running game this year. And Mizzou's just as good at stopping it.

Nebraska Passing

2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts+: 169.46
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 20.57
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.89
Projection #2: 19.14

Projected Nebraska Passing Output: 19.86

Adjusted for 2008: 18.0. Here's the deal: NU averaged such high passing numbers in '07 because they were playing from behind so much. Ironically, the fact that they're better at passing in '08 means they probably won't be averaging as many Passing EqPts--games will be closer, and they won't be letting 'er rip quite as much.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 44.0, Nebraska 25.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nebraska 28.

Special Teams

Lincoln was the place where Missouri fans discovered what kind of kicker they were going to have for the next couple years. The one bright spot of the '06 debacle in Lincoln was Jeff Wolfert crushing a 54-yard FG at the end of the first half...to cut NU's lead to 27-6. Since then, Wolfert's missed almost nothing. He leads what is, despite the kick return TD given up against Buffalo a week and a half ago, the best special teams unit Mizzou's had in recent history, possibly ever. They've got their most accurate kicker ever, their best kick/punt returner ever, and a pretty solid punter.

Meanwhile, NU's unit is far from chopped liver. After Niles Paul got a bit of fumbleitis against Virginia Tech, Nate Swift stepped in and took a punt back 80+ yards for a TD. Meanwhile, primary kick return man Niles Paul also has a TD (a big one too--it broke open the way-too-tight San Jose State game) in this young season. Alex Henery is a solid kicker as well. The one problem: so far they're averaging 27.5 net yards per punt. That's horrendous. Granted, that includes last week's blocked punt, but Dan Titchener's 38.0 average (and propensity to give up some returns) doesn't cut it. Mizzou has a special teams advantage here, but it's not a gigantic one.

Key Players: Nebraska

WR Todd Peterson, WR Menelik Holt, TE Mike McNeil...every receiver besides Nate Swift

Back in 2005, freshman Nate Swift was Zac Taylor's go-to WR in a mediocre pass attack. 2006 and 2007 were dominated by JUCO transfer Maurice Purify, but now Swift is back to being the #1 guy. Problem is, Mizzou's still pretty darn good at stopping #1 receiving threats (thank you, Carl Gettis). So someone on the Husker offense needs to step up and play the role Ernest Jackson (Buffalo's #2 WR, who scored 3 TDs) played for Buffalo or Will Judson (177 yards, 2 TDs) played for Illinois. Problem is, the only NU WR who's caught a pass of more than 25 yards is Swift. NU's still good at the screen game--RBs Quentin Castille, Roy Helu Jr. and Marlon Lucky (remember him?) all have had at least one long reception--but call me crazy...NU's not going to beat Mizzou by screening them to death. Somebody's going to have to come up with a huge play or two, and it might be Jeremy Maclin's former Kirkwood teammate, TE Mike McNeill.

Or, you know, it might be nobody at all.

RB Marlon Lucky

I wanted to name anybody else but Lucky, but there are a lot of known quantities here. Joe Ganz is going to be pretty solid. Nate Swift is going to make a few catches. The NU O-line is going to be decent but not spectacular. Really, the key ingredient to NU being able to keep up with Mizzou on the scoreboard simply has to be Marlon Lucky. The preseason All-Big 12 RB is barely on pace for 800 rushing yards this year, and despite a 58-yard run earlier in the season, he's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry. While his backup, Roy Helu Jr., has rushed for almost as many yards on 15 fewer carries, Lucky's the workhorse, and he just has to have a big game.

DE Zach Potter

We've covered the "How to beat Mizzou" blueprint on RMN many times. The key ingredient isn't a great secondary or explosive offense--it's having great DEs. You have to be able to generate pressure on Chase Daniel without blitzing, and Potter is NU's only hope of success in that regard. He's having a solid season so far--5.0 TFL's, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 2 QB hurries; he might need all of that on Saturday. He's a big dude (6'7, 285), and he's obviously pretty athletic...now he just needs to have a career game at exactly the right time. Unfortunately for him, Mizzou's starting OT's, Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher, have been dominant thus far.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Usually, if I've already picked a DL here, I'd aim for an LB or DB with the second defensive slot. It is, after all, important that NU's DBs cover better than they have in their lives even if the D-line IS generating some pressure. But a) the LBs and DBs just don't really matter if the NU DL doesn't first dominate, and b) Suh's probably NU's most talented defensive player (other than Potter, anyway). The best-case scenario is that the 6'4, 300-pound nose tackle teams with Potter to blow up one side of Mizzou's O-line and harrass all night. I'll believe it when I see it--Suh completely and totally disappeared against good teams last year--but it's something to watch.

Key Players: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

It's quite possible that Nebraska, knowing it doesn't have the most wonderful secondary in the world, plays the mushroom cloud style of defense that teams like Arkansas and Kansas attempted against Mizzou last year, rushing 2-3 guys and dropping 8-9 into coverage. If Nebraska attempts this, it will open up humongous holes for Derrick Washington, who has already proven himself to be a better overall weapon than Tony Temple. Temple was a wonderful slasher, waiting for a hole and darting through it. Washington can do that, but he doesn't really need to wait for a hole. He can lower his head into the back of a pile and squirt through the other side for 6 yards; he can also break away for a TD at any time. Washington is the reason it seems impossible to stop Missouri right now, and if he has a big game in Lincoln, I don't see how Missouri loses unless they're fumbling the ball left and right.

OT's Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher

This one's easy--if Zach Potter and Ndamukong Suh are the keys for Nebraska, the guys blocking them (sort of) are keys for Mizzou. Granted, Suh's an NT, so he'll be on the interior of the line, but if he (and DT Ty Steinkuhler) can rough up the middle of the Mizzou O-line, it's up to Brown and Fisher to keep Chase Daniel from being blindsided. I'm not worried about pressure from up the middle--Daniel can see that coming--it's what he can't see that I worry about.

DE Stryker Sulak

After a wonderful start to the season (3 sacks against Illinois), Sulak has more or less disappeared. He's been the second-best DE on Mizzou's team (anybody notice how well Tommy Chavis has been playing?) for the last three games. It's time for Sulak to make some more noise. Ziggy Hood's coming along, and if Sulak lives up to the expectations he built for himself, this defense is suddenly pretty scary.

FS William Moore

Remember him? I'm talking about William Moore the safety, not William Moore the third defensive end. Assuming we scale back the Moore experimentation a bit and he, you know, actually plays free safety (and is healthy enough to play it well), he is Mizzou's most dangerous player. Mizzou held a decent Buffalo offense in check without Moore, but Nebraska's obviously better than Buffalo, and Mizzou will need Moore to start making plays.

Then again, Sean Weatherspoon might just make all the plays, in which case it really doesn't matter what Moore does.

Summary

I want nothing more than to believe we're going to break a 30-year losing streak in Lincoln by absolutely destroying NU. It's within the realm of possibility. NU can't get to Chase Daniel early, Mizzou races to a quick early lead, Mizzou tees off on Joe Ganz, ..., blowout ensues.

But it's probably not going to happen. I've been saying for two weeks now that we are likely to get everything Nebraska has. Trick plays, inspired blitzes, some completely unknown receiver (Curenski Gilleylen, maybe?) coming out of the woodwork and finding a couple blindspots in Mizzou's Cover-2. They'll probably even get a couple Sea-of-Red-style lucky bounces like the ones that quickly turned the '06 game into a blowout (Really? Will Franklin actually bats the ball to Adam Carriker?).

It's going to be a game. But it comes down to what I've been repeating ad nauseum for the last two weeks: even with inspired play and some homefield bounces, can Nebraska stop Missouri more than Missouri can stop Nebraska? The only reason I can come up with to convince myself that would happen is that...well, this game is in Lincoln. Lincoln has been very bad to Mizzou over the years. But you know what? Manhattan and Boulder had also been bad to Mizzou for the last decade-plus. And Mizzou ended those jinxes quite violently in 2007. It's time to end this jinx too. Bring it on, Huskers.

Prediction: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

Poll

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

25 votes

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

7 votes

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

145 votes

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

6 votes

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!

10 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed

Keys to the Game: Virginia Tech

Blankman — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:00:05 -0000

It’s finally arrived: The first “big game” in the Bo Pelini era. In fact, each and every game from here on out can very well and should be considered “big games”. Virginia Tech offers the best of an admittedly poor non-conference slate, but it’s a night game, will be regionally-televised, no doubt some solid recruits will be in attendance and Nebraska has an ability to sell itself as a program again.

This works for the kids in uniform and ones that could choose to put one on in the coming days. After VT comes Mizzou, but Tiger fans as much as I’d love to get into that dustup, I’ll look forward to writing about the black and gold next week. What does Nebraska have to do to make sure that they’re undefeated going into my next “Keys of the Game” article?

1.) Get Ganz time – As Joe has shown us when he has time in the pocket he can work over a secondary until he’s not only zipping passes through (and in some cases over) them but can zip through them as well. I would advise Coach Watson not to go to the “Option Well” too many times this week as VT will be looking for it, but a sweet faux-option dropback/playaction job would be gorgeous. Much like NMSU, Joe needs to have the time to be the player that he is and he is good enough to get the job done.

2.) Mix it up! – Establishing the running game will be key in defeating the Hokies. Regardless of if Nebraska wants to win by one or 100, all facets of the offense Watson wants to provide need to be there. We saw this against NMSU, but the Hokies have slightly better talent*. It is imperative that Lucky and Helu are able to do damage and if that’s the case, Castille needs to bruise some bodies as well. If Virginia Tech allows Nebraska to bring a balanced attack to this game, they’ve lost.

*Ya think?

3.) Marketing time is over – We’ve all seen the shirts that Bo knows defense or how Bo shoots and kills water buffalo with slingshots and marshmallows or how he can skin a buck in 2.4 seconds. That’s great. The ACC’s not exactly lighting the world on fire as a conference right now, but let’s see some action to back up the marketing and branding.

Virginia Tech does not bring two quarterbacks that cannot be corralled to this matchup. Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor are two different styles of QB, but both can be contained and shut down by Pelini.

This will, however, be a true test for the defense as a whole as RB Darren Evans has shown the ability to make things happen, so I believe that the front seven and specifically Ty Steinkuhler and Ndamukong Suh are going to play one of the biggest roles of this game. If they can keep the middle closed allowing the ends to crash and the line syncs? Nebraska can control this game from the outset. If, however, holes form, it’s going to be a long day.

I’m not too worried about safety play this week. More cautiously optimistic, actually. Larry Asante upped his game a bit last week plus Anthony West returns to a secondary that can use all of the healthy depth and talent it can get its hands on. In summary, I don’t think that this is going to be a high scoring affair.

I think that if either team breaks 20 points it’ll be no more than 23 and Beamerball will likely translate to both sides of the game. We have Zach Potter. Every kick is blockable, do you hear!? Look for a close, defensive battle (ugly game) that could be won by either side.

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:00:07 -0000

The first Bo Pelini depth chart was released today not too many surprises, but worth a discussion.

Offense:

Quarterback: 1 - Joe Ganz, 2 - Patrick Witt, 3- Zac Lee.

No surprises here, although you have to ask yourself what happens if Joe Ganz goes down with an injury. What does that do to the season?

I-Back: 1 - Marlon Lucky -or- Roy Helu -or- Quentin Castille

So there are three backs listed as co #1's. There seems to be a lot of buzz about this, and I'll be honest, I don't get it (the fuss, that is). Running backs get the holy crap beat out of them much worse than they used to, so you are not going to make it through a full season without your main guy getting banged up.

What is sad here is the name that's missing - Kenny Wilson. It's doubtful he'll play again due to his leg injury. It's easy to forget the potential that was there, but don't.

Fullback: 1 - Thomas Lawson, 2 - Justin Makovicka

No surprises, remember that while Callahan didn't use fullbacks on the run, Lawson caught three TD's last season which was as many as Nate Swift and Marlon Lucky, and more than the entire receiving corp besides Swift and Peterson.

Wide Receiver X: 1 - Nate Swift, 2 - Menelik Holt, 3 - Will Henry, 4- Chris Brooks

No surprise, although I guess I'm a little surprised that Chris Brooks is all the way down at #4.

Wide Receiver Z: 1 - Todd Peterson, 2 - Niles Paul or Curenski Gilleylen

Again, no surprise here.

Tight End: 1 - Mike McNeill, 2 - Dreu Young, 3 - Ryan Hill, 4 - Ben Cotton

Obviously Tyson Hetzer hasn't recovered enough from his spring knee injury to be listed on the roster at this point. Perhaps he'll join in later in the season. This position is more critical to offensive success than people are giving it, here's hoping they can perform well this season.

Offensive Line:

They're a unit, and we treat them like a unit.

LT: 1 - Mike Smith, 2 - Jaivorio Burkes
LG: 1 - Mike Huff, 2 - Keith Williams
C: 1 - Jacob Hickman, 2 - Mike Caputo
RG: 1 - Matt Slauson, 2 - DJ Jones
RT: 1 - Lydon Murtha, 2 - Marcel Jones

Lydon Murtha moves back to right tackle. Murtha is an enigma - the guy has the body size for a prototypical NFL left tackle, but gives that spot up to Mike Smith. Go figure. Burkes at #2 behind Mike Smith is a little surprise, but we'll see how the rotation comes out.

The key to this line is that some of these guys can move around to different positions. Slauson has played both guard and tackle, while Hickman has played guard and center. An incredibly solid group, with plenty of depth and experience.

Defense:

Nose Tackle: 1 - Ndamukong Suh, 2 - Shukree Barfield, 3 - Terrence Moore

Defensive Tackle: 1 - Ty Steinkuhler, 2 - Jared Crick

Base End: 1 - Zach Potter, 2 - Clayton Sievers

Open End: 1 - Barry Turner, 2 - Pierre Allen

No surprises here. Obviously losing Kevin Dixon hurt, but I don't see this group as thin as a lot of other people. Note that Baker Steinkuhler isn't listed - hopefully a redshirt season is in the works for him.

Linebackers:

Will Linebacker: 1 - Cody Glenn, 2 - Blake Lawrence

Mike Linebacker: 1 - Phillip Dillard, 2 - Will Compton, 3 - Colton Koehler

Buck Linebacker: 1 - Tyler Wortman, 2 - Sean Fisher

Obviously the linebacker position is of huge concern. Will Compton and Sean Fisher are both true freshmen. Dillard is a solid middle linebacker with experience, so the hope would be that Compton and Fisher aren't needed this season which will give them time to get stronger and learn. LaTravis Washington is not listed here due to injury. Nor is Nick Covey.

Is there a Husker fan who isn't cheering for Cody Glenn's position switch to work out well? Even beyond the sake of the team, you have to admire the guy for moving there. Lot of guts, love that guy.

Defensive Backfield:

Right Cornerback: 1 - Anthony West, 2 - Prince Amukamara

Left Cornerback: 1 - Armando Murillo, 2 - Eric Hagg

Strong Safety: 1 - Larry Asante, 2 - Major Culbert

Free Safety: 1 - Rickey Thenarse, 2 - Matt O'Hanlon

The starting four are a pretty decent group. What you have to ask is what happens when we move to using five or six defensive backs, ala defending Texas Tech. Amukamara has never played corner before, so the first three games may be key to getting him valuable experience. Eric Hagg and Major Culbert should be able to step into the extra roles if needed, so keep an eye on them should they get into the game against Western Michigan.

I realize I tagged everyone on the depth chart with this post, but hey it was my chance to check out our rosters, and make sure everything is okay. Corrections will be made!

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part One)

Bill C. — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:00:07 -0000

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough. I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Missouri (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Points Per Play
Redzone Defense
Q4 Rushing Offense
3rd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team? Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+. On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+. After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season. And the rushing offense was solid too. They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008? Defensively, good things. Lots of good things. Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon. Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4. If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou. But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there. Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance. Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone. Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field.

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot. Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas. Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State). They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert). Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule. They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

Kansas (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense (particularly success rates)
Offensive Line Yards
Pass Defense Success Rates
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Defensive Passing S&P+
#4: Defensive EqPts+, Defensive Close-Game Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#106: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#98: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#94: Defensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#90: Offensive Q1 S&P+

Kansas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

To me, the 2008 KU season will be determined by how they handle two things: 1) offensive line deficiencies and 2) a harder schedule...and to a slightly lesser extent, 3) special teams deficiencies. Their '+' numbers show that they would have probably done just fine with a harder schedule in 2007--they did play quite a few weak teams, but they still did better against those weak teams than most did. Taking strength of schedule into account, they still finished in my Top 10 in both offense and defense. I'd be surprised if the offense finished that high again--with OL problems and the losses of go-to guys Brandon McAnderson and Marcus Henry--the latter of whom I didn't touch on here, but who himself carried KU's offense at times, particularly against Oklahoma State--I could see KU's offense falling back into the #30-35 range. The defense however, should only go up. They have to replace James McClinton and Aqib Talib, but the personnel and experience levels are strong here, and unless the loss of DC Bill Young means more than I think it will mean, KU should end up with a Top 5 defense in my '+' rankings in 2008.

The main problem is, of course, the schedule. They travel to South Florida on 9/20. USF's offense isn't amazing, but it should still put up a few points. This will be the first major test in 2008 of KU's offense, and how it responds to George Selvie and an overall tough unit will determine the game. The conference schedule, meanwhile, includes trips to Norman (ouch) and Lincoln (NU will be looking for revenge), and it wouldn't be completely surprising for KU to go 0-2 in those two. The good news is that Texas Tech and Texas both have to come to Lawrence, and while they should win one of the two, winning both will be a chore.

This is a very good team, and there's no gimme loss on the schedule (okay, I guess the trip to Norman is a bit of a gimme). But while KU eeked by the likes of Colorado and ATM on the way to starting 11-0, they'll now have to beat at least two ranked teams (USF, OU) on the road, along with two more (TT, UT) at home to match that start in '08. And that's probably not going to happen.

Verdict: The running game was what made this offense click--without it, KU struggled--and it's unclear yet whether the Jake Sharp/Jocques Crawford combination can succeed at the same level as McAnderson did, especially without their All-American LT. This is the biggest question mark on a team with a strong leader at QB (Todd Reesing), a couple of dynamic weapons at WR (Dexton Fields, Dezmon Briscoe), and a top-to-bottom tough defense (led by LBs Joe Mortensen, Mike Rivera, and James Holt).

Colorado (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Rushing Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#11: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#13: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#13: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#122: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#120: Offensive Non-Passing Downs Rushing S&P+
#117: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+

Colorado Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Will Colorado be able to run the ball when it counts?

The answer to this one comes down to one name: Darrell Scott. Assuming he's ready for the opening bell, the All-World true freshman from California will be given every opportunity to carry the Colorado offense. If he doesn't do it, I doubt anybody else on that roster can. So let's focus on him.

...

[H]ere's roughly what we can expect from Scott this season:

NONCONFERENCE: 45.1% success rate / 0.38 PPP / 0.827 S&P
CONFERENCE: 41.9% / 0.33 PPP / 0.751 S&P
BOWL (assuming they make one): 36.8% / 0.56 PPP / 0.933 S&P

Over a 13-game season, this would result in the following averages: 42.5% success rate / 0.36 PPP / 0.789 S&P

Is that good? Bad? Well...Texas' Jamaal Charles put up a 0.958 S&P last season, so it's not amazing. But over the course of 20 touches/game, that's still going to be pretty productive.

Let's put it this way: last year, CU's three main RBs--Charles, Lockridge, Sumler--went for a line of 40.8% / 0.31 PPP /0.717 S&P. Scott's line would represent a 10% improvement over that...and 10% less pressure on Cody Nolte-Hawkins to make plays.

Anybody who watched Scott's highlight reel knows how good this guy is. But it takes the rarest of rare freshmen--ahem, Adrian Peterson--to make such a gigantic impact in his debut season...especially on a team with few weapons (and a relatively weak O-Line) around him. Maybe Scott really is that special...but most likely he's going to put up average to above-average numbers in 2008 before possibly busting out in 2009.

...

Bottom line: CU's defense will probably be about the same in 2008, and their offense will be at least marginally better...but probably not so much better that they can think about making a New Years Day Bowl run or anything. Honestly, with this year's schedule CU should really just feel glad to make a bowl and continue upon last year's progress. The home slate includes West Virginia and Texas, while they have to travel to Florida State (technically Jacksonville), Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Right now the schedule contains three likely wins (Colorado State, E'ern Washington, Iowa State), five likely losses (WV, @FlaSt, Texas, @KU, @MU), and four tossups (KSU, @ATM, OSU, @NU). To make it to 8-4, they'd have to win all four tossups AND spring an upset.

Dan Hawkins is building a decent program here, but I think we won't find out how high this program's ceiling is until the 2009 season. If they can tread water and make a repeat visit to Shreveport (or maybe Houston or Arizona...maybe El Paso) this December, they'll have to feel they did pretty well.

Verdict: As good as Darrell Scott could be by the end of the year (they're breaking him in slowly and not starting him--plus he's a bit banged up right now), CU will go as far as their defense takes them this year. Missouri game aside, they were pretty good against the pass, and that will serve them well in a division stocked with variations of the spread offense. Plus, George Hypolite is a nice, disruptive force on the D-line. But...good god, is that schedule brutal.

Kansas State (3-5)

Game-Changing Stats

Offensive Line Yards (particularly non-passing downs)
2nd Down Defense
Q4 Defense
1st Down Offense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#8: Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+
#10: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#15: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#123: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#122: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#117: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Kansas State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So how far can KSU get in 2008 with a stout front seven on defense, a decent QB, solid special teams...a shaky secondary, and question marks everywhere else on offense? Again, I think the onus falls on the running game. If Patton (or whoever) can move the ball reliably, the schedule is rather manageable.

...

Anyway, an undefeated non-con slate certainly isn't out of the question, as that trip to Louisville doesn't seem as daunting as it might have a year ago.

KSU starts the conference slate with a 4-of-6-on-the-road stretch--if they can win one road game out of trips to College Station, Boulder, Lawrence, and Columbia, they should consider it tremendous progress. Meanwhile, their two homegames in that stretch are against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. OUCH.

So really, I'd say the best-case scenario for KSU is to be 2-4 at that point (best best case is 3-3, as for some reason I think the KU-KSU game will be a dogfight, even in Lawrence). If they're, say, 1-5 at that point and 4-6 overall (or, even worse, 0-6 and 3-7), I'd say it won't matter that they finish with home games against ISU and NU. The players might be in full mail-it-in stage as they were last November, and the Prince administration could be on its last legs.

A total collapse is certainly a reasonable scenario with that schedule, but another decent start to the season, and 4-4/8-4 is reasonable too. I'll hedge my bets and predict a 7-5 record here, with an undefeated non-conference slate and conference wins over NU, ISU, and...uhh...someone else. CU, maybe. Or Tech. Somebody.

Verdict: The more I think about K-State, the less convinced I am that they'll totally collapse this year. (Then again, the more I thought about test answers in school, the more likely I was to get them wrong.) While I do think the limitations of Josh Freeman (accuracy), the secondary (not enough firepower to compete seriously in the North), and Ron Prince (not being a very good coach) put KSU's ceiling at around 8-4, I do think they're relatively likely to sneak back into bowl consideration after a monstrous collapse in November '07.

Nebraska (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Success Rates
2nd Down Rushing Defense
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Non-Passing Downs Passing Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Passing Downs S&P+
#3: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#117: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#113: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Nebraska Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So what can we expect from Nebraska in 2008? The easy answer is, who the hell knows? They're the biggest unknown quantity in the conference outside of Manhattan, KS. But we won't settle for that easy answer.

Nebraska's offense averaged 0.27 more PPP with Joe Ganz behind center than with Sam Keller. That's not sustainable. But 0.10 may be within the realm of possibility. Over the course of 60-80 plays, that's a TD more per game. That may be a bit much, but we'll go with it.

On defense, NU just doesn't have enough talent in the front seven to improve too considerably. They have a series of DE's--Barry Turner, Zach Potter, and especially Pierre Allen--who have shown varying amounts of potential, but who haven't proven themselves to be every-down playmakers. Maybe a 'fire under the ass' coach like Pelini will be what they need...and maybe not. Ty Steinkuhler and Ndamukong Suh could be solid at DT, but Steinkuhler is limited and Suh completely disappeared after a decent start to '07. At LB...their leading playmaker is Tyler Wortman...who made all of 3.5 'successful' tackles in '07. Ouch.

(That's the other thing--even though their defense was wretched, players who made 70% of their 'successful' tackles departed after '07.)

Despite the lack of potential, let's say that the defense also improves by 0.10 PPP, which would be hefty improvement. That would mean the offense and defense are both 7 points better. Well...five of NU's seven losses were by 18 points or more. A 14-point improvement doesn't take you that far. That would, however, take them back to the Oklahoma State-level in regard to overall performance. That's a decent step in the right direction, and it--along with their massive homefield advantage--is why I said in yesterday's Roundtable that 8-4 is quite possible.

Verdict: I'll stick with what I said above. Despite the fact that college football wants Nebraska to be good, their ceiling is also pretty well-defined. Your defense can only improve so much in one year, but Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky (the main reason for those great 3rd down numbers above), and a great homefield advantage will move Nebraska back into the bowl picture.

Iowa State (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Defense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#14: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#22: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#22: Defensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#24: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+
#124: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+

In all, Iowa State ranked #100 or worse in exactly 50 of my 100 '+' categories. In a conference full of offensive firepower, Iowa State had less than none. Meanwhile, it seems almost every team in the country was good enough to rank in the Top 10 in one of the 100 '+' categories. Iowa State managed to rank in the Top 25 in only four.

Iowa State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

The following things are quite possible:

Iowa State could once again play over their heads and win a couple games they shouldn't, just by being physical, taking advantage of turnovers, and slogging through to victory in the fourth quarter.

In their second year of adapting to his philosophy, ISU's defense could improve despite losses to their front seven.

Alexander Robinson could have a breakout (i.e. 800-1000 yard) season.

One of the WR newcomers (or somebody...anybody...) could become at least something of a deep threat to the tune of 1.00 PPP or more.

The secondary could be in the top half of the Big 12.

And...

If all those "coulds" come to fruition...Iowa State could win 6 games.

The ceiling's not very high for ISU this year, but a lot of the likely key cogs for the 2008 edition will return in 2009, when (as has been written here many, many, many times before) the North goes completely up for grabs again. Not saying the balance of power could shift in the direction of Ames by any means, but with an experienced offense and potentially mean defense, they could at least make some noise in '09. Just not in '08.

Verdict: I'm not sure if a college football team has ever missed a 4-year starting QB less than Iowa State will miss Bret Meyer in 2008. However...on an offense that was so horrible in so many different ways, Meyer can only shoulder so much blame. Expect incremental improvement in just about every unit, and expect Iowa State to be in position to steal a game here or there, but...the talent gap between Iowa State and most of the rest of the conference is just ginormous.

BALANCE OF POWER

Part Two (South Division and predictions) tomorrow.

SB Nation - Ty Steinkuhler

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers Team Capsule

DE Ty Steinkuhler signs with the Cincinnati Bengals? Denied. He signed with the NY Jets

Resetting the weekend; draft picks and undrafted free agents

Keys to the Game: Kansas

Which Key is Most Important Vs. Kansas?

Bring the "Hyde" out of Reesing

It’s Lucky or Helu

Keep Bo Happy

Mizzou-Nebraska: Preview and Predictions thread

Crossfire: Nebraska Q&A

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Nebraska

Opponents

Missouri

Opponents

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!

Keys to the Game: Virginia Tech

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Offense:

Defense:

Linebackers:

Defensive Backfield:

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part One)

BALANCE OF POWER