SB Nation - Dreu Young

The North in 2010

Bill C. — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:00:31 -0000

The 2009 Big 12 North race is, to say the least, intriguing heading into November, but the way my brain works, I can't help but keep an eye on the future as all of this plays out. And since it's in my head, I might as well type it out too, huh? As November 2009 begins, let's take a look at...2010.

What we're going to do is simple: we're going to take the most recent two-deeps listed on each team's website, remove the seniors, and see what's left. Obviously there will be plenty more analysis to come, but this will be a nice, preliminary peek. I can't help myself.

Missouri

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Blaine Gabbert (Jr) Jimmy Costello (So)	DE	Jacquies Smith (Jr) Marcus Malbrough (So)
RB	Derrick Washington (Sr) De'Vion Moore (So)	DT	Dominique Hamilton (Jr) Marvin Foster (RSFr)
WR	Jerrell Jackson (Jr) Brandon Gerau (Jr)	DT	Terrell Resonno (Jr) Bart Coslet (Sr)
WR	T.J. Moe (So) Rolandis Woodland (So)	DE	Aldon Smith (So) Brad Madison (So)
WR	Wes Kemp (Jr) Michael Egnew (Jr)	WLB	Zaviar Gooden (So) Donovan Bonner (So)
TE	Andrew Jones (Jr) Beau Brinkley (Jr)	MLB	Will Ebner (Jr) Luke Lambert (Sr)
LT	Elvis Fisher (Jr) Justin Britt (RSFr)	SLB	Andrew Gachkar (Sr) Tyler Crane (Jr)
LG	Austin Wuebbels (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	CB	Carl Gettis (Sr) Trey Hobson (Jr)
C	Tim Barnes (Sr) J.T. Beasley (Jr)	CB	Kevin Rutland (Sr) Robert Steeples (So)
RG	Jayson Palmgren (Jr) Travis Ruth (So)	FS	Jasper Simmons (Sr) Munir Prince (Sr)
RT	Dan Hoch (Jr) Jack Meiners (So)	SS	Jarrell Harrison (Sr) Kenji Jackson (Jr)

K	Grant Ressel (Jr)	P	Matt Grabner (Jr)
PR	Carl Gettis (Sr)	KR	Jasper Simmons (Sr)

I've got to say, this is the most complete team heading into 2010. Blaine Gabbert will be the most accomplished North QB heading into 2010 and Derrick Washington the second-most accomplished RB. The improved secondary will return just about everybody of importance, and a deep LB corps could be well-positioned to absorb the loss of Sean Weatherspoon with as little drop-off as possible.
Two major question marks: a) who replaces Danario Alexander, and b) who replaces Jaron Baston? Multiple candidates exist to replace Spoon, so that's actually less of a worry, but the WR situation is at least a bit worrisome. Wes Kemp has shown flashes, and if he continues to grow, he could be the deep threat this team needs, but what is it I always say? Until you actually prove it, it's a question mark. Beyond Kemp, guys like Jackson, T.J. Moe (remember him?), Rolandis Woodland, and one of the redshirting freshmen (L'Damian Washington, Jaleel Clark, Kerwin Stricker) will fill out the depth chart, and at least one of them will need to take a step forward.
Of course, you know who else could absorb the loss of Danario? Tight ends. Novel concept, I know.
I really like what I've seen out of Dominique Hamilton recently, but Terrell Resonno seems to have disappeared. Either he or one of the underclassmen (Marvin Foster, Jimmy Burge, George White) will need to raise their game. If somebody competent steps up at WR and DT, this team is loaded.

Colorado

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Tyler Hansen (Jr) Cody Hawkins (Sr)	DE	Marquez Herrod (Sr) Josh Hartigan (Jr)
RB	Rodney Stewart (Jr) Darrell Scott (Jr)	DT	Curtis Cunningham (Jr) Nate Bonsu (So)
FB	Ryan Deehan (Jr) ?	DT	Will Pericak (So) Conrad Obi (Jr)
WR	Scotty McKnight (Sr) Jason Espinoza (Jr)	DE	Forrest West (So) Nick Kasa (So)
WR	Markques Simas (Jr) Will Jefferson (So)	WLB	Jon Major (So) Tyler Ahles (Jr)
TE	Ryan Deehan? (Jr) ?	MLB	Michael Sipili (Sr) ?
LT	Nate Solder (Sr) Ryan Dannewitz (So)	SLB	B.J. Beatty (Sr) Doug Rippy (So)
LG	Ethan Adkins (Jr) Blake Behrens (Jr)	CB	Jimmy Smith (Sr) ?
C	Keenan Stevens (Sr) Mike Iltis (Jr)	CB	Jalil Brown (Sr) Arthur Jaffee (Jr)
RG	Matthew Bahr (Jr) Max Tuioti-Mariner? (So)	FS	Ray Polk (So) Anthony Perkins (Jr)
RT	Ryan Miller (Jr) Bryce Givens (So)	SS	Travis Sandersfeld (Jr) ?

K	Aric Goodman (Sr)	P	Aric Goodman (Sr)
PR	Jason Espinoza (Jr)	KR	Brian Lockridge (Jr)

I mentioned this past offseason that while Colorado was going to stink in 2009, they might actually be positioning themselves to actually fulfill the role of sleeper that has been foisted upon them for most of the last half-decade. Ironically, they might actually emerge as a sleeper just as everybody finally gives up on them.
Of course, there will still be some major question marks. You know I'm not at all impressed with Rodney "Another Short Gain By" Stewart, and while Scotty McKnight (how is he still an underclassman???) is a great possession guy, he'd be a helluva lot better as a #2 or #3 threat than a #1. Unless Markques Simas finally starts to live up to the potential everybody says he has, this team is still severely lacking at WR, and they're losing both of their top tight ends. (I'm going out of my way not to mention Darrell Scott here, as he...whatever. I have no expectations whatsoever for him at this point, and I'm going to let him surprise me.)
I really like Jimmy Smith at CB, but CU's going to be searching for some replacements in the secondary. Jalil Brown has potential, and Ray Polk is young, but depth could be an issue.
Same can be said for the LB corps. Luckily for CU, they should have a strong D-line to maybe deflect some of the concerns.
If CU really does live up to its annual sleeper reputation, it will be in the trenches, where a struggling O-line will at least have experience on its side, and the D-line could be strong. Then again, after watching CU's O-line attempt to handle MU's improving-but-not-amazing D-line, maybe returning a bunch of these guys might not be a good thing.

Iowa State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Austen Arnaud (Sr) Jerome Tiller (So)	DE	Patrick Neal (Jr) ?
RB	Alexander Robinson (Sr) Beau Blankenship (So)	DT	Bailey Johnson (Jr) Stephen Ruempolhamer (Jr)
WR	Jake Williams (Sr) ?	DT	Austin Alburtis (Sr) ?
WR	Sedrick Johnson (Jr) ?	DE	Roosevelt Maggitt (So) Cleyon Lang (So)
WR	Josh Lenz (So) Darius Darks (Jr)	SLB	Jacob Lattimer (Jr) ?
TE	Collin Franklin (Sr) ?	MLB	Matt Tau'fo'ou (Sr) A.J. Klein (So)
LT	Kelechi Osmele (Jr) Brayden Burris (So)	WLB	Jake Knott (So) ?
LG	Alex Alvarez (Sr) Mike Bangston (So)	CB	Leonard Johnson (Jr) Jeremy Reeves (So)
C	Sean Smith (Sr) ?	CB	Jacques Washington (So) ?
RG	Ben Lamaak (Sr) Trey Baysinger (Jr)	FS	Michael O'Connell (Sr) ?
RT	Scott Haughton (Jr) Zack Spears (Jr)	SS	David Sims (Sr) Zac Sandvig (Sr)

K	Grant Mahoney (Jr)	P	?
PR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)	KR	Leonard Johnson (Jr)

So Paul Rhoads' second year in Ames will potentially see a downright strong offense and a thin, depleted, inexperienced defense. I don't want to overstate the offensive potential (the WR situation is iffy, to say the least), but ISU might have the best O-line in the North blocking for what is at least decent skill position talent.
Arnaud vs Tiller. Could be interesting to watch this competition.
Really, if ISU returned just a couple more decent playmakers on defense, I could talk myself into them being a darkhorse contender. But while I do like what Rhoads has done with the talent on hand this year, I just can't figure they'll be that great next year. They will need another year or two of Rhoads developing his own recruits before I feel a lot more comfortable about the potential of their program.

Kansas

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Kale Pick (So) ?	DE	Jake Laptad (Sr) ?
RB	Toben Opurum (So) ?	DT	Jamal Greene (Sr) ?
WR	Dezmon Briscoe?? (Sr) ?	DT	John Williams (So) Richard Johnson (Jr)
WR	Johnathan Wilson (Sr) Tertavian Ingram (Sr)	DE	Quintin Woods (Sr) ?
WR	Bradley McDougald (So) Chris Omigie (So)	SLB	Justin Springer (Sr) ?
TE	Tim Biere (Jr) Ted McNulty (Jr)	MLB	Drew Dudley (Sr) ?
LT	Tanner Hawkinson (So) Ian Wolfe (Sr)	WLB	Huldon Tharp (So) ?
LG	Brad Thorson (Sr) Carl Wilson (Sr)	CB	D.J. Beshears (So) Daymond Patterson (Jr)
C	Jeremiah Hatch (Jr) Brad Thorson (Sr)	CB	Chris Harris (Sr) Calvin Rubles (Sr)
RG	Sal Capra (Sr) Trevor Marrongelli (So)	FS	Lubbock Smith (So) ?
RT	Jeff Spikes (Jr) Michael Martinovich (Jr)	SS	Phil Strozier (Sr) ?

K	Jacob Branstetter (Sr)	P	Alonso Rojas (Sr)
PR	Daymond Patterson (Jr)	KR	Bradley McDougald (So)

So KU's biggest question mark (offensive line) will return completely intact next year, while most of the known skill position talent disappears. I listed Dez Briscoe on the two-deep above, but I've got to be honest: I'm about 92% sure he's going pro this year. His stats are ridiculous, he's got decent NFL size, he's been suspended for academic reasons, and supposedly he was tied to those football-vs-basketball brawls earlier in the year. That's not a recipe for someone who's going to go out of his way to stick around campus for another season.
Without Briscoe, I have to figure this is going to be a run-heavy offense next year. Kale Pick's got a lot to prove, but with Toben Opurum and an experienced line, they might (might) be able to rely on the run. Then again, they'll still need some sort of passing attack, and...who will be the #1 receiver? Johnathan Wilson, I guess? Color me unafraid.
I'm not even going to try to figure out if KU's D is going to be any good. They've improved recently, but they lose Darrell Stuckey and two linemen, and the depth from LB corps vanishes. I assume this will be a decent unit, and really you can start to maybe see the identity KU might be going with--defense first, run-heavy, grind it out.

Kansas State

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Carson Coffman (Sr) ?	DE	Brandon Harold (Jr) ?
RB	Daniel Thomas (Sr) ?	DT	Prizell Brown (Sr) ?
FB	Braden Wilson (So) Lucas Hamm (Sr)	DT	Raphael Guidry (Jr) ?
WR	Lamark Brown (Sr) ?	DE	Antonio Felder (Sr) Joseph Kassanavoid (So)
WR	Collin Klein (So) Chris Harper (So)	LB	Kevin Rohleder (Sr) ?
TE	Travis Tannahill (So) ?	LB	Alex Hrebec (Jr) ?
LT	Zach Hanson (Jr) ?	LB	Troy Butler (Sr) Thomas Ferguson (So)
LG	Zach Kendall (Sr) Trevor Viers (Sr)	CB	Joshua Moore (Sr) Darious Thomas (So)
C	Wade Weibert (Sr) ?	CB	Stephen Harrison (Sr) David Garrett (Jr)
RG	Kenneth Mayfield (Sr) Colten Freeze (Jr)	FS	Emmanuel Lamur (Jr) ?
RT	Clyde Aufner (Jr) Ethan Douglas (So)	SS	Tysyn Hartman (Jr) Torrell Miller (So)

K	Josh Cherry (Sr)	P	Ryan Doerr (So)
PR	Tysyn Hartman (Jr)	KR	Daniel Thomas (Sr)

Like Kansas, this looks to be a pretty run-heavy, can't-pass-on-them team, with Daniel Thomas running behind a super-experienced line and a well-coached defense that is iffy in the front seven but stout in the secondary. In other words, this looks like a Bill Snyder team (sans the All-American linebackers). We've made a big deal out of the fact that they're losing about 35 seniors this year (and that's only a slight exaggeration), and that will absolutely murder their depth, but if they stay reasonably healthy, the Snyder identity might be able to take shape a bit more.
Now, I say they'll have a good secondary...I'm still unsure about how good the secondary is now, but returning all four current starters certainly suggests decent improvement for next year.
I believe I heard that Chris Harper is moving to WR instead of competing at QB, right?

Nebraska

Projected 2010 Depth Chart
QB	Cody Green (So) Zac Lee (Sr)	DE	Cameron Meredith (So) Josh Williams (So)
RB	Roy Helu, Jr. (Sr) Rex Burkhead (So)	DT	Baker Steinkuhler (So) Terrence Moore (Jr)
FB	Tyler Legate (So) Mike Hays (Jr)	DT	Jared Crick (Jr) ?
WR	Niles Paul (Sr) Antonio Bell (So)	DE	Pierre Allen (Sr) ?
WR	Curenski Gilleylen (Jr) Khiry Cooper (So)	Will	Blake Lawrence (Sr) Matthew May (Jr)
TE	Mike McNeill (Sr) Dreu Young (Sr)	Mike	Will Compton (So) Micah Kreikemeier (So)
LT	Mike Smith (Sr) ?	Buck	Sean Fisher (So) Eric Martin (So)
LG	Keith Williams (Sr) ?	CB	Prince Amukamara (Sr) Dejon Gomes (Sr)
C	Mike Caputo (Jr) ?	CB	Anthony West (Sr) Alfonzo Dennard (Jr)
RG	Ricky Henry (Sr) ?	FS	Eric Hagg (Sr) Austin Cassidy (Jr)
RT	Marcel Jones (Jr) D.J. Jones (Sr)	SS	P.J. Smith (So) Courtney Osborne (So)

K	Alex Henery (Sr)	P	Alex Henery (Sr)
PR	Niles Paul (Sr)	KR	Niles Paul (Sr)

How the hell is Pierre Allen still an underclassman? I was completely convinced that both he and Barry Turner were seniors, but I guess not.
Next question: how much of Nebraska's defensive identity is grounded in Ndamukong Suh? He and Turner depart, but will Allen and the stout Jared Crick be able to keep the great D-line play coming? And how much of Crick's success is due to offenses' fear of Suh?
The shine is quickly wearing off of Roy Helu, Jr., but he does return next year (lord knows he's not going pro), and with yet another experienced O-line, NU should be able to run the ball pretty well. That will obviously take some pressure off of Cody Green if Green is not, after all, ready to be NU's savior.
I really like what NU has returning at CB, but...safety? I think I like their second-string CBs more than their first string safeties. Will be interesting to see if there's some position shifting when all is said and done.

As a Missouri fan, I look at this information and quickly conclude that Missouri will be the 2010 favorite, and really I'd say I have pretty good basis in fact for that opinion. That said, Nebraska is intriguing, and even though K-State is not a stat-friendly team (I've already accepted that they're better than the stats say--I just can't figure out how much better), Bill Snyder really might get them back into the hunt despite the youth and lack of depth. Colorado could be interesting depending on who the head coach is (ahem), Kansas has recruited well and will see plenty of talented-but-young players hitting the field, and Iowa State might have the best offensive line in the division. I'd like to think Missouri might run away with this thing, and I'm sure it could happen (the trip to Lincoln aside), but with five of six North teams (all but Kansas) looking potentially better next year than this year, we might have another fun race on our hands.

Huskers First Depth Chart Available

Jon Johnston — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:29:56 -0000

Bo Pelini released the first depth chart of the season this afternoon, and in doing so, did his best to say as little as possible. That's not much of a surprise, last year's depth charts continually had -OR- in several places.

-OR- Positions

Wide Receiver (X) - Menelik Holt OR Curenski Gilleylen

Holt didn't have a strong enough fall camp to break away.

Right Guard - Ricky Henry OR Andy Christensen

Good news because it means that Christensen has worked his way back into the rotation. More depth is always a good thing.

Right Tackle - Marcel Jones OR D.J. Jones

Marcel Jones also listed as a backup to Mike Smith at Left Tackle, so once again, this is about rotation, not starting positions.

Tight End - Mike McNeill OR Dreu Young

Surprising amount of respect shown to Dreu Young given he had a back injury and missed a great deal of fall camp. Or perhaps he's just that athletic.

WILL - Mathew May OR Blake Lawrence

Free Safety - Matt O' Hanlon OR Rickey Thenarse

Right Cornerback - Anthony West OR Alfonzo Dennard

Punter - Alex Henery OR Brett Maher

Long Snapper - P.J. Mangieri or Sam Meginnis

The full depth chart is available after the jump

Other Items of Note:

Will Compton and Sean Fisher worked their way into starting roles at the linebacker spots, beating out the veterans. That's not a small accomplishment. Depth at that position aplenty!

The full release from the athletic department is available here.

2009 Husker Football Offensive Depth Chart Starting to Come Together

Jon Johnston — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 13:19:32 -0000

Having followed Bo Pelini for a year now, Husker fans should expect him to release a full depth chart sometime in November, just before the Colorado game. Maybe. It's an understandable position - tell some guys they're a starter, and they might think they've achieved something worthwhile and stop being as hungry as they need to be to play to their full potential.

If you're doubting the technique, let's look at it from another perspective. (NSFW - Profanity)

First prize, a Cadillac El Dorado. Second prize, steak knives. Third, well.... not much difference than what we see on the team, eh? First prize, you're starting. Second prize, you might get into the rotation. Third... there's your place on the bench.

A B C - "Always Be Closing" - a parallel to Pelini's bio on twitter - "The secret to success is constancy of purpose". In other words, if you're not working towards a goal on a consistent basis, you're not working. The Glenngarry Glen Ross comparison is simply an over-the-top representation of Pelini being angry with a less than satisfactory practice yesterday.

I promise I'll never compare Alec Baldwin with Bo Pelini again (shouldn't one of them have moved to France or something?), unless it's really necessary.

Following the tidbits that have dribbled out of camp, however, it shouldn't be too difficult to put one together. Here's what the 2009 Husker offense looks like to date:

LT     Mike Smith
LG    Keith Williams

We haven't heard too much about these positions, and last year both of these guys were solid. They should retain their positions into this season.

C    Jacob Hickman, Mike Caputo

Hickman is one of the best centers in the Big 12 - he will be a member of the starting rotation for the season, barring injury. This position is settled, has been since last season.

RG    ?????

We haven't heard much about Ricky Henry. I'm beginning to think this guy is a figment of an internet hype machine. Andy Christensen and Derek Meyer are candidates here, but don't forget spring's move with Hickman sliding over here and Caputo taking center.

Ricky Henry = steak knives? Ah, competition.

RT    D.J. Jones

You have Marcel Jones fight with D.J. Jones for that right tackle spot, which isn't so bad, because one of them is going to end up in the rotation anyway.

TE   Mike McNeil, Dreu Young, Kyler Reed, Ben Cotton

We're stocked here. So stocked you might count on seeing a number of three tight end sets in an Ace formation. If you're really wondering about all the things Shawn Watson can do with a great group of tight ends - check this and then comment here.

WR - X
WR - Z

It's Niles Paul and something like seven other guys here. Spread the ball around and see who starts making plays. It'd be good to see Chris Brooks have a great senior season, but you can bet if Menelik Holt and Will Henry don't come around that the youngster Antonio Bell and Brandon Kinnie are going to take over.

QB    Zac Lee, Cody Green

This has already been announced, much to the chagrin of Latravis Washington. There's been some questions about why Cody Green was moved to #2. The answer to that - who else is going to be #2 - has to make you realize that some Husker fans don't realize how thin this position is.

RB    Roy Helu Jr, Rex Burkhead, (Third?)

Obviously, Helu is THE guy this season. Burkhead has played well enough and show enough maturity to move ahead of Collins Okafor, Lester Ward, Marcus Mendoza, and Austin Jones. That third back must be found, however. Second place for these guys

Summary

Two units on offense remain unsettled - offensive line and wide receiver. Perhaps Pelini's motivational skills will push all players involved at those positions to the point that everyone is nearly even. This would result in a fair amount of depth, something that can't be discounted as the season goes on - hard work now may pay off in a Big 12 North title later - not necessarily because the Huskers have the greatest athletes at their position, but that they were the last one's standing.

That's my position for now. I'll think I'll hold on to that until we see the Huskers on the field.

What Will The 2009 Nebraska Offense Look Like?

Jon Johnston — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska's Kyler Reed (25), and J.T. Kerr work on blocking drills Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, during the first day of fall football practice camp in Lincoln, Neb. What do you want out of your tight ends - better pass receiving skills or better blocking?

Browse more photos »

I keep trying to get a handle on what this year's Husker offense might look like. It's troublesome because the assets that we have - running backs and tight ends - lead one to believe that we should move into double tight end sets and run the ball. Putting the offense into this type of formation also requires that you have a great offensive line that can run the ball when they need to.

And that's the other quandary. I mean no offense to our current group of linemen, the fact is that Nebraska's offensive line is nowhere near the powerhouse lines we had in the Osborne era. (Well, the fact is that no one has the offensive lines that Osborne had, largely because the defensive players have gotten that much better just like the six million dollar man - stronger and faster.)

Barney Cotton is still looking for someone to fill the right guard position, and losing both Lydon Murtha and Jaivorio Burkes at the right tackle position leaves that right side suspect. It doesn't give much confidence that we can rely on a tight set-based run game, but then there are the tight ends, Mike McNeill, Dreu Young, Ben Cotton and Kyler Reed. Surely there's a boost of confidence with such good depth and athleticism. Maybe get the running game going and then play-action to them like in the old days. McNeill and Reed have the speed to get behind defenses, while Young and Cotton have the size and strength to muscle up for the ball.

That's it, right? That's the offense we can expect to see. Right? Right?

Unfortunately, tight sets are diametrically opposed to the one theme that's made offenses in the Big 12 as explosive as they are right now - the spread formations. Regardless of the offensive philosophy - spread to run or pass - it seems that an offense must incorporate some elements of the spread to be successful.

If we spread to pass, we'll have to find more than one playmaker amongst our group of receivers. If we spread to run, will Shawn Watson allow Zac Lee to keep the ball knowing full well that if Lee is injured the next two quarterbacks have never taken a snap in a college game?

One of last year's bread and butter plays was the wide receiver screen because Todd Peterson and Nate Swift complemented each other so well. With both of them gone, will we see much of the play this season? Can Menelik Holt and Niles Paul complement each other in the same way?

I'm curious as to what other Husker fans have to say about our offense this season. What will this year's offense look like? What do you think will work? What will be the bread and butter plays off which we feast?

So many questions. Husker football fans are the best football geeks I know, so what say ye?

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

2009 Nebraska Football Spring Preview: Receivers

Jon Johnston — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:52:26 -0000

Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 receptions and 1,727 of Nebraska's receiving yards in 2008. Both were dependable, sure-handed playmakers who had an uncanny nack for finding the open spot on the field.

One perspective might say it's imperative that we find adequate replacements for them. Another perspective might be that we're not, and instead the duo's possessions and yardage might be better utilized transferred to the running game where we have another dependable duo waiting. Reality lies somewhere in between. Defensive players have become faster, stronger and more versatile heralding the death of the one-dimensional offense. The Cornhuskers must find a set of receivers that will keep opponents from stacking against the run.

Niles Paul is a key component of the 2009 Husker offense. If Paul becomes more reliable, Husker fans will forget Nate Swift and Todd Peterson
Photo by Dennis Hubbard

Menelik Holt and Niles Paul saw a lot of plays last season, but neither materialized into every-down dependable players. Both must improve their game this coming season and give the Huskers a boost in the passing game. I previously mentioned the word 'dependability' as the key to the receiver position for this coming season. That word applies to Holt and Paul more than any other pair.

Nebraska's top returning receiver coming into spring is tight end Mike McNeill. In 2008, McNeill had 32 receptions for 442 yards. He comes into 2009 with more touchdown receptions than the rest of the receiving corps combined. He proved himself a dependable receiver and in 2009 will be highly valued. Another tight end, Dreu Young, had a good 2008, coming in with nine receptions and 140 yards and one touchdown. Young has the highest reception average of any returning receiver at 15.6 yards per catch.

This is Chris Brooks' final season. Brooks finally had a reception for a touchdown in 2008, but has underachieved during his career at Nebraska. Brooks has size and talent, and he knows the offense, and the players in front of him had graduated, i.e., the excuses are gone. Perhaps the fact that his playing days will be over at the end of the season will awaken some spark.

Curenski Gilleylen had a memorable 2008 spring game when he got behind the secondary and hauled in a 77-yard bomb touchdown reception, but only had two receptions in the 2008 regular season. Gilleylen has speed enough to be a deep threat, potentially a huge asset to the Huskers in 2009, but he must catch the ball. Again, the word dependability comes to mind.

Antonio Bell is a 2008 recruit who struggled to become academically eligible and was delayed until he got his grades in order. He enrolled in January to participate in spring practice. Bell is a speedster - in his senior season at Mainland High School in Daytona Beach, Florida, Bell caught 45 passes for 776 yards and nine touchdowns.

Brandon Kinnie and Khiry Cooper may provide additional help in the fall, but neither are available for spring football. Kinnie a JUCO sophomore transfer from Fort Scott Community College in Kansas, where he caught 62 passes for 845 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also returned two kickoffs for 79 yards. Khiry Cooper is currently playing baseball.

Others to watch:

Wes Cammack - Sr
Will Henry - Jr
Ben Lester - So
KC Hyland - RFr
Taylor Dixon - RFr
Steven Osborne - RFr
Tim Marlowe - RFr

2008 Statistics:

Receiving	GP-GS	Number	Yds	Avg	TD	Long	Avg/Game
Swift, Nate	13-13	63	941	14.9	10	67	72.4
Peterson, Todd	13-13	62	786	12.7	4	36	60.5
McNeill, Mike	13-12	32	442	13.8	6	53	34
Holt, Menelik	12-4	30	355	11.8	1	25	29.6
Lucky, Marlon	12-11	26	288	11.1	1	69	24
Helu Jr., Roy	13-2	25	266	10.6	0	27	20.5
Paul, Niles	13-3	23	214	9.3	0	21	16.5
Young, Dreu	13-4	9	140	15.6	1	55	10.8
Castille, Q.	13-1	9	109	12.1	0	31	8.4
Teafatiller, H.	12-2	3	27	9	0	15	2.2
Hill, Ryan	13-0	3	9	3	1	6	0.7
Brooks, Chris	11-0	2	27	13.5	1	25	2.5
Gilleylen, C.	11-0	2	11	5.5	0	6	1
Mendoza, Marcus	4-0	2	7	3.5	0	7	1.8
Ganz, Joe	13-13	1	20	20	1	20	1.5
Cammack, Wes	13-0	1	5	5	0	5	0.4
Lawson, Thomas	11-0	1	4	4	0	4	0.4
Suh, Ndamukong	13-13	1	2	2	1	2	0.2

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 17:00:05 -0000

I may have posted the BTBS 'box' yesterday, but there's still plenty to discuss. Let's look back at last week's preview and see how things shook down.

Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.

Nebraska: 39.7% success rate, 40.9% while the game was close
Missouri: 56.9% success rate, 56.3% while the game was close

So NU held Mizzou a smidge below its season success rate...but still couldn't stop the big play. Meanwhile, NU didn't have nearly enough offensive consistency.

If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.

Nebraska: 6-for-22 on passing downs. They were 5-for-11 passing (2 successful passes to Nate Swift, 2 to Todd Peterson, 1 to Menelik Holt) with 1 sack, and they were 1-for-5 rushing.

They were 2-for-4 in Q1 (that's when the two passes to Swift came), 4-for-18 the rest of the game.

Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.

Nebraska Offense

Q1: 50.0% success rate / 0.42 PPP / 0.924 S&P
Q2: 30.0% success rate / 0.18 PPP / 0.484 S&P
Q3: 37.5% success rate / 0.15 PPP / 0.522 S&P

And the game was over in Q4.

They really did gameplan pretty well, with the rollouts and such, but once Mizzou got comfortable (which didn't take long), it was over fast.

Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast.

Missouri Offense

Q1: 61.5% success rate / 0.70 PPP / 1.320 S&P (skewed by Maclin's long TD)
Q2: 50.0% success rate / 0.40 PPP / 0.903 S&P
Q3: 72.7% success rate / 1.23 PPP / 1.953 S&P

So a slight dropoff in Q2, but only to 0.903. That's still good. I do find one thing ironic, though: remember how NU's coaches bragged about the fantastic gameplan they'd put together? Well Mizzou was unbelievable in the "gameplan" quarters (Q1/Q3). That's some good coaching by Nebraska, huh?

The game could be made or broken on third downs.

Mizzou on 3rd downs: 77.8% success rate / 1.487 PPP / 2.264 S&P
Nebraska on 3rd downs: 63.2% success rate / 0.391 PPP / 1.022 S&P

Nebraska was a little too successful on 3rd downs for my taste, but while they were just barely converting (0.391 PPP), Missouri was breaking the Points Per Play chart (1.487). Again, S&P is a lot like OPS in baseball--anything over 0.900 is pretty good. A 2.264 S&P is "Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series" good.

(Correction: Barry Bonds only put up a 1.994 OPS in the 2002 World Series. My bad. The Missouri offense on third downs was better than Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series.)

Key Players: Nebraska

Every receiver besides Nate Swift

Roy Helu Jr. (RB): 4 catches, 50% success rate, 2.80 EqPts
Ryan Hill (TE): 2 catches, 0% success rate, 0.02 EqPts
Menelik Holt: 5 catches, 80% success rate, 5.45 EqPts
Mike McNeill (TE): 2 catches, 100% success rate, 1.72 EqPts
Todd Peterson: 7 catches, 100% success rate, 2.86 EqPts
Dreu Young (TE): 1 catch, 100% success rate, 0.68 EqPts

TOTAL: 21 catches, 76.2% success rate, 13.52 EqPts

Meanwhile...

Nate Swift: 5 catches, 80% success rate, 4.40 EqPts.

Not nearly enough from him. Carl Gettis strikes again.

RB Marlon Lucky

Marlon Lucky: 14 carries, 1.61 EqPts, 0.401 S&P - WORTHLESS. I feel vindicated.

DE Zach Potter

Zach Potter: 3.5 tackles, 3.0 successful - 85.7% success rate, 0.868 defensive S&P (Defensive Success Rate - PPP = Defensive S&P). Oh yeah, and 1 helmet-to-helmet penalty worth 0.84 points.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh: 4.5 tackles, 4.0 successful - 88.9% success rate, 0.780 defensive S&P, 1 noteworthy loogie.

Both Potter and Suh played rather well, though they both made more notable contributions to the game outside of the stats. And neither came up with a sack. And it should also be mentioned that only 4.0 of their 8.0 tackles came when the game was actually close.

Key Plays: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Derrick Washington (rushing): 14 carries, 57.1% success rate, 1.348 S&P
Derrick Washington (receiving): 2 catches, 100% success rate, 2.327 S&P

Derrick Washington (TOTAL): 16 touches, 62.5% success rate, 1.470 S&P

I'll just say this: Derrick Washington is possibly the most underrated RB in the country right now. He's putting up numbers like this on a weekly basis, he's scored 12 TDs, and he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Seriously, Chase Daniel's already the Heisman favorite at the moment, but if Washington weren't so darn proficient at getting into the endzone, Daniel might have another 5 or so TD passes (or rushes) to add to his resume!

OT's Elvis Fisher & Colin Brown

Nebraska: 0 sacks
Missouri offense w/Chase Daniel at QB: 58.7% success rate, 0.69 PPP, 1.272 S&P

Nebraska's attempts at getting past Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown: MASSIVE FAIL.

DE Stryker Sulak

Stryker Sulak: 2.5 tackles, 100% success rate, 0.966 Defensive S&P, 1 forced fumble worth 5.05 points.

Sulak brought his A-game again, but he was outplayed by his counterpart...

Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis: 4.5 tackles, 100% success rate, 0.980 S&P, 1 sack, 1.5 tackles for loss

FS William Moore

William Moore: 4.0 tackles, 0% successful, 1 TD-preventing pass break-up.

Moore's stats certainly suggest he's not 100%, but he still came up with a huge play and a couple hard hits...plus, he's the one who flushed Ganz out of the pocket, leading to Christopher's pick six.

Summary

I guess we should have known what to expect when a) Nebraska scored only 14 points in the first three quarters against San Jose State and b) Virginia Tech (which scored only 27 against Western Kentucky) put up 35 in Lincoln. In the end, it's not a 100% worthwhile experience delving into the box scores of blowouts, but I'll say that's a pretty nice problem to have.

Look for an MU-OSU BTBS Preview on Thursday, and I'm still intending to write a) an updated BTBS glossary and b) a look at the BCS statistical leaders at some point. We'll see when that happens.

Also, I haven't been doing a good job of whoring these recently, but if you're interested in catching up on my Varsity Numbers pieces at Football Outsiders, here they are:

Varsity Numbers #1: NCAA Analysis 101
Varsity Numbers #2: Six Missing Points
Varsity Numbers #3: The '+' Concept
Varsity Numbers #4: Leverage, Leverage, Leverage

Poll

Who was the statistical MVP of the Mizzou-Nebraska game?

Chase Daniel (17.96 Passing EqPts)

13 votes

Derrick Washington (13.52 Rushing & Receiving EqPts)

70 votes

Jeremy Maclin (7.45 Rushing & Receiving EqPts, tone-setting first TD, caused one massively shanked punt)

5 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (5.5 successful tackles, 79% success rate)

4 votes

Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis (4.5 successful tackles, 0.980 defensive S&P, 1 sack)

4 votes

Brock Christopher (3.5 success tackles, 1 INT for TD)

3 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:00:07 -0000

The first Bo Pelini depth chart was released today not too many surprises, but worth a discussion.

Offense:

Quarterback: 1 - Joe Ganz, 2 - Patrick Witt, 3- Zac Lee.

No surprises here, although you have to ask yourself what happens if Joe Ganz goes down with an injury. What does that do to the season?

I-Back: 1 - Marlon Lucky -or- Roy Helu -or- Quentin Castille

So there are three backs listed as co #1's. There seems to be a lot of buzz about this, and I'll be honest, I don't get it (the fuss, that is). Running backs get the holy crap beat out of them much worse than they used to, so you are not going to make it through a full season without your main guy getting banged up.

What is sad here is the name that's missing - Kenny Wilson. It's doubtful he'll play again due to his leg injury. It's easy to forget the potential that was there, but don't.

Fullback: 1 - Thomas Lawson, 2 - Justin Makovicka

No surprises, remember that while Callahan didn't use fullbacks on the run, Lawson caught three TD's last season which was as many as Nate Swift and Marlon Lucky, and more than the entire receiving corp besides Swift and Peterson.

Wide Receiver X: 1 - Nate Swift, 2 - Menelik Holt, 3 - Will Henry, 4- Chris Brooks

No surprise, although I guess I'm a little surprised that Chris Brooks is all the way down at #4.

Wide Receiver Z: 1 - Todd Peterson, 2 - Niles Paul or Curenski Gilleylen

Again, no surprise here.

Tight End: 1 - Mike McNeill, 2 - Dreu Young, 3 - Ryan Hill, 4 - Ben Cotton

Obviously Tyson Hetzer hasn't recovered enough from his spring knee injury to be listed on the roster at this point. Perhaps he'll join in later in the season. This position is more critical to offensive success than people are giving it, here's hoping they can perform well this season.

Offensive Line:

They're a unit, and we treat them like a unit.

LT: 1 - Mike Smith, 2 - Jaivorio Burkes
LG: 1 - Mike Huff, 2 - Keith Williams
C: 1 - Jacob Hickman, 2 - Mike Caputo
RG: 1 - Matt Slauson, 2 - DJ Jones
RT: 1 - Lydon Murtha, 2 - Marcel Jones

Lydon Murtha moves back to right tackle. Murtha is an enigma - the guy has the body size for a prototypical NFL left tackle, but gives that spot up to Mike Smith. Go figure. Burkes at #2 behind Mike Smith is a little surprise, but we'll see how the rotation comes out.

The key to this line is that some of these guys can move around to different positions. Slauson has played both guard and tackle, while Hickman has played guard and center. An incredibly solid group, with plenty of depth and experience.

Defense:

Nose Tackle: 1 - Ndamukong Suh, 2 - Shukree Barfield, 3 - Terrence Moore

Defensive Tackle: 1 - Ty Steinkuhler, 2 - Jared Crick

Base End: 1 - Zach Potter, 2 - Clayton Sievers

Open End: 1 - Barry Turner, 2 - Pierre Allen

No surprises here. Obviously losing Kevin Dixon hurt, but I don't see this group as thin as a lot of other people. Note that Baker Steinkuhler isn't listed - hopefully a redshirt season is in the works for him.

Linebackers:

Will Linebacker: 1 - Cody Glenn, 2 - Blake Lawrence

Mike Linebacker: 1 - Phillip Dillard, 2 - Will Compton, 3 - Colton Koehler

Buck Linebacker: 1 - Tyler Wortman, 2 - Sean Fisher

Obviously the linebacker position is of huge concern. Will Compton and Sean Fisher are both true freshmen. Dillard is a solid middle linebacker with experience, so the hope would be that Compton and Fisher aren't needed this season which will give them time to get stronger and learn. LaTravis Washington is not listed here due to injury. Nor is Nick Covey.

Is there a Husker fan who isn't cheering for Cody Glenn's position switch to work out well? Even beyond the sake of the team, you have to admire the guy for moving there. Lot of guts, love that guy.

Defensive Backfield:

Right Cornerback: 1 - Anthony West, 2 - Prince Amukamara

Left Cornerback: 1 - Armando Murillo, 2 - Eric Hagg

Strong Safety: 1 - Larry Asante, 2 - Major Culbert

Free Safety: 1 - Rickey Thenarse, 2 - Matt O'Hanlon

The starting four are a pretty decent group. What you have to ask is what happens when we move to using five or six defensive backs, ala defending Texas Tech. Amukamara has never played corner before, so the first three games may be key to getting him valuable experience. Eric Hagg and Major Culbert should be able to step into the extra roles if needed, so keep an eye on them should they get into the game against Western Michigan.

I realize I tagged everyone on the depth chart with this post, but hey it was my chance to check out our rosters, and make sure everything is okay. Corrections will be made!