SB Nation - Tyler Wortman

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00:11 -0000

Before we get to the defense, an aside.

I'm in an interesting position here. Nebraska is absolutely in the North's top tier of teams (as has been covered previously, there appears to be a rather large "proven talent" divide between KU/NU/MU and KSU/ISU/CU), and if they can win in Lawrence or Columbia (or maybe even if they can't), they can take the North. As you'll read below, the defense should be incrementally better while the offense could be incrementally worse, and while there are few true stars (Ndamukong Suh, Roy Helu, maybe Mike McNeill or a defensive end), there is decent experience at RB, DL, and DB. And Bo Pelini certainly acquitted himself relatively well in year #1.

As I've mentioned previously, my problem comes with expectations and with the casual nature that national-level analysts continue to just assume that Nebraska is now "back" despite little evidence to support that. Since making the national title game in 2001, Nebraska has gone just 28-28 in conference with a point differential of -68. As means of comparison, here are the North standings in that time frame:

Big 12 North Standings, 2002-08
Team	Record	Pt. Diff
Missouri	29-27	+235
Nebraska	28-28	-68
Colorado	27-29	-104
Kansas State	25-31	+189
Kansas	22-34	-297
Iowa State	15-41	-718

(Yes, that's right--ONE North team is over .500 combined in the last seven seasons--barely--and the North is, as a whole, 44 games under .500 in that span. Granted, Iowa State is responsible for 26 of those games, but...well...Baylor and their 10-46 record still reside in the South, and the division has still managed to be 44 games over .500. Yikes.)

Anyway, the frustration here lies in the fact that, every year we get to hear about Nebraska being "back" and Colorado being a "sleeper," and yet Missouri, who has been a smidge better than both of them over a 7-year (not just 2-year) span, is pronounced dead at the first possible moment. Just odd. But the good news is, as always, this is the offseason. The real season will give us all the answers we're arguing about or getting annoyed about at the moment.

/aside

Anyhoo, time to talk defense.

Nebraska pulled off an interesting feat in 2008. While winning six of seven games to end the season, they gave up 29.1 points per game in that span (23.7 in the wins), and yet the basis for most of their North title predictions this offseason come from how good the defense is going to be. They gave up 35 points to Virginia Tech, who had the #79 offense in the country (according to S&P+). They gave up 52 to Missouri and 62 to Oklahoma...37 to Texas Tech (not bad, actually)...35 to Kansas...28 to Kansas State...an egregious 31 to Colorado (S&P+ rank: 114th)...and yet the defense is going to carry them to the North title? Never mind how disrespectful that is for Kansas (and to a lesser extent, Missouri) fans to hear...how disrespectful is that to Joe Ganz? Nate Swift? Roy Helu Jr.? These were the guys who, along with Ndamukong Suh's big plays, carried the Huskers to a strong 2008 finish.

Now, before I go any further, make no mistake: the Nebraska defense has probably the best shot at being the North's best D in the fall. The point is, it's not going to be so good that they will get by Kansas and Missouri (both on the road) simply on the heels of the dominant Blackshirts. They're not going to be that dominant. In going for only their second North title since Eric Crouch was running the show, the onus will be on not only Zac Lee and an unproven receiving corps, but also a decent-not-great defense, which alternates between experienced guys with low ceilings and inexperienced, highly-touted players. Maybe Bo Pelini will push all the right buttons, but we shouldn't assume it will happen.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 108.9 (#41)
Success Rate+: 111.9 (#23)
PPP+: 105.7 (#53)

Standard Downs S&P+: 103.9 (#51)
Passing Downs S&P+: 114.0 (#31)

Redzone S&P+: 114.4 (#23)

Q1 S&P+: 95.5 (#75)
Q2 S&P+: 121.2 (#22)
Q3 S&P+: 82.7 (#105)
Q4 S&P+: 144.3 (#2)

1st Down S&P+: 96.8 (#71)
2nd Down S&P+: 120.6 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.9 (#32)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 102.0 (#60)
Rushing SR+: 104.4 (#47)
Rushing PPP+: 98.9 (#65)

Standard Downs: 91.5 (#86)
Passing Downs: 138.5 (#15)

Redzone: 96.4 (#74)

Line Yards+: 103.4 (#48)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 112.2 (#28)
Passing SR+: 118.0 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 107.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 113.1 (#39)
Passing Downs: 105.4 (#51)

Redzone: 141.3 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#9)

As a whole, Nebraska had a pretty efficient defense in 2008, but they struggled with the big play. Their success rates were quite solid, but their PPP+ numbers were lacking. They knew how to leverage an offense into bad situations (15th in Passing Downs Rushing), but they ended up occasionally letting teams off the hook (51st in Passing Downs Passing).

Other items of note:

Thanks in part to a very strong Adjusted Sack Rate, Nebraska's strength was in defending the pass. Again, they weren't tremendous from a PPP+ perspective, but their success rates were good. As I gather more data, it will be interesting to see which one is easier to improve with experience and better execution--success rates or PPP.
Strangely, as with their offense, their redzone rushing defense was awful, but their redzone pass defense was great. You figure it out; I can't.
While they did indeed have a strong sack rate, what's with the line yardage? It seems they were good at attacking and speed, but they couldn't avoid being pushed around (or, they attacked too much, and it was easy to use their leverage against them to create running lanes?).
Bad in Q1, good in Q2. Atrocious in Q3, outstanding in Q4. Again, you figure it out.
They were mediocre on first downs but quite strong on second downs...and decent-not-great on third downs. This coincides with what was mentioned above--they were good at making a bad offensive situation worse, but they let teams off the hook a bit.

Through all of this info, something else interesting emerges. For all the seemingly-justifiable hype generated by NU's D-line, it was the Huskers' worst-ranked unit in 2008. It was a decent #42, while the linebackers were #34 and the high-efficiency-too-many-big-plays secondary was #31 (at least partially because they played against so many great passing offenses, I assume). Kind of an identity crisis here.

But regardless of the rankings, it appears that the D-line and secondary could be better, while...honestly, I have no idea what to make of the LBs.

Defensive Line

Pierre Allen is overshadowed but solid.

2008 Unit Ranking: #42 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Ndamukong Suh (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DE Pierre Allen (6'5, 265, Jr.)
DE Barry Turner (6'3, 265, Sr.)
DT Baker Steinkuhler (6'6, 295, RSFr.)
DT Terrence Moore (6'3, 285, So.)
DE Josh Williams (6'4, 245, RSFr.)
DE Cameron Meredith (6'4, 260, RSFr.)

While nobody is going to mistake this unit for that of Oklahoma, this is clearly the most proven defensive line in the Big 12 North, at least in terms of the pass rush. Ndamukong Suh has slowly morphed from inconsistent playmaker to every-down dominant (he led Nebraska in tackles last season, as a defensive tackle, and posted 19 TFLs and two huge pick sixes), while Baker Steinkuhler, if he can gain the form of a 5-star athlete quickly, could make teams pay for doubling Suh. Meanwhile, on the outside, Pierre Allen posted 10.0 TFLs of his own last year, and Barry Turner might be able to make some waves after following up a disappointing 2007 season (he was outstanding as a freshman and sophomore) with a 2008 broken leg that earned him a medical hardship.

They were great at attacking in 2008, but it was possible to push them around a bit. Bo Pelini's defense has the reputation for attacking and blitzing a lot, but the strength of the attack is limited if you struggle against the run. Derrick Washington put up 139 yards and two touchdowns against them, Tech's Baron Batch went for 97 yards on just 10 carries, and Robert Griffin posted 121 yards. In all, NU's rush defense (#60) wasn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't great. Clearly that will need to improve considerably if Nebraska is to assume a spot in the Top 25 as they are now predicted to do.

Outside of Suh, Allen, and Turner, the defensive line is thin and inexperienced, but, well, that won't matter if the starters don't get hurt. Suh is clearly a force (though he has yet to make serious noise against Missouri, knock on wood), and Allen and Turner could make for a strong pair of rush ends.

Linebackers

Missouri fans probably know the name of Will Compton pretty well already.

2008 Unit Ranking: #34 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Phillip Dillard (6'1, 240, Sr.)
Blake Lawrence (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Will Compton (6'2, 220, RSFr.)
Sean Fisher (6'6, 230, RSFr.)
Mathew May (6'1, 210, So.)
Matt Holt (6'0, 200, So.)

So...what do you actually do with this unit? You've got 27th-year senior Phil Dillard, who has made 75 tackles in two years and almost no plays. You've got former 4-star stud Blake Lawrence, who has made 23 tackles in 15 games his first two seasons and made exactly one big play: an interception in 2008. You've got new 4-star stud Will Compton, whose biggest contribution thus far in his career was to assistant coach Mike Ekeler's arm but is expected to tear things up sooner than later...and then you've got a bunch of other youngsters. In limited action, Mathew May locked down a nice TFL, forced fumble, and fumble recovery, so he may hold some potential. Same with Matt Holt, who made 14 tackles in nine games (and one start).

It's unclear how much potential this relatively young unit of LBs has, and how quickly they can be expected to fulfill said potential. Clearly, the Huskers have a lot of hope in Compton, but...well, he's not any more highly-touted than Lawrence was, and Lawrence hasn't done anything of note yet. There's something to be said for the fact that the Husker D is now in its second year under Pelini, and knowledge of the scheme and higher levels of intuition will make things better. And there's also this: the Huskers had a respectable, 34th-ranked LB corps in 2008 despite the fact that there really wasn't a big-time playmaker among Dillard, Lawrence, and departed seniors Cody Glenn and Tyler Wortman. Pelini clearly knows LBs, and even if none of these guys are All-Conference caliber, this unit at least won't be a liability.

Secondary

Larry Asante...starting safety (I have nothing in particular to say about him...he's solid)

2008 Unit Ranking: #31 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Larry Asante (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Anthony West (6'0, 205, Jr.)
S Matt O'Hanlon (5'11, 200, Sr.)
CB Prince Amukamara (6'1, 200, Jr.)
S Ricky Thenarse (6'0, 205, Sr.)
CB Alfonzo Dennard (5'10, 190, So.)
CB Anthony Blue (5'10, 185, So.)
S Eric Hagg (6'2, 205, Jr.)

The secondary is as experienced as the LB corps is inexperienced, but there doesn't appear to be as much upside. Again, they gave up a few too many big plays, but I guess that is to be expected against the offenses they faced. They posted good success rate numbers, and that helped the pass defense a decent amount. Safeties Larry Asante, Matt O'Hanlon, and Ricky Thenarse are veterans, and that's never a bad thing for your last line of defense. But they also combined for only 10 TFLs and 3 INTs. Thenarse seemed to be the biggest offender in terms of giving up the big play (at least in games I watched), but he was most capable of making some plays himself.

Meanwhile, the cornerback position seems to have more potential overall--Anthony West ended up having himself a solid sophomore season, breaking up nine passes and picking two more off. (As means of comparison, Castine Bridges had seven pass breakups from the CB position, Carl Gettis six and Kevin Rutland five.) Prince Amukamara showed some potential as well. In all, NU's secondary was their highest-ranked unit in 2008, and gauging experience levels (and strength of schedule), you can expect those numbers to be maintained in 2009.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #106 Net Punting, #21 Punt Returns, #48 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.) - 56-57 PAT, 18-21 FGs
P Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.)
KR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 41 Returns, 23.6 Avg, 1 TD
PR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 8 Returns, 10.0 Avg

Nebraska special teams in 2009 were pretty hit-or-miss. Alex Henery was an outstanding kicker--it's hard to overstate how clutch it is to beat a main rival (Colorado) with a 57-yard field goal with two minutes remaining. In all, he made 18 of 21 FGs, and he has by far the most proven leg in the Big 12 North. He will also likely be trusted to assume punting duties in 2009--NU was pretty weak here last year, and while it's never a given that a good kicker will be a good punter, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

On the returns side of things, it looks right now as if Niles Paul will be the man. He was solid in kickoff returns, scoring a clutch return touchdown in the fourth quarter against San Jose State, right after SJSU had closed NU's lead to 14-12. Take that return out of the equation, and he still averaged 22.1 yards per return, which would have been better than average. Nate Swift was the main man in punt returns last year, but Paul returned a handful and did fine with them.

Really, if punting isn't a liability, the special teams unit could be a major asset for Nebraska in close games, particularly in terms of kicking. Henery really is a stud.

Summary

Iffy offense, solid defense, solid special teams. In a division without a breakaway favorite, Nebraska has as good a chance as anybody of coming away the winner (though playing in both Lawrence and Columbia won't help their cause).

We'll take a look at projections on Friday, but for now we'll just summarize by saying that while NU's defense could be solid, I think they're at least a year away from having rock-solid personnel at linebacker, but they'll be taking a step backwards on the defensive line and in the secondary next year. It might take a little while for all the pieces to truly come together for Pelini's defense, but he's got a good defensive mind obviously, and because of that and decent personnel, they'll certainly be in the title hunt this year. I'm just not giving them anything yet.

---

Projections on Friday.

Shooting Pointe Blank: Texas Tech

Blankman — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:08:04 -0000

Let me officially state for the record: …DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMMMNNN… Do Texas teams just play hot potato with this “dangle the carrot” in front of Nebraska’s face or what? On the bright side, I was wrong, WAY wrong in how I thought things would go down. Yes, I fully admit it. I thought we were going to get torn apart like wheat through a thresher, but interestingly enough the Keys to the Game were oddly appropriate.

1.) K.I.S.S. – Shawn Watson did in fact keep it simple. Short little outs to let big-bodied, physical receivers make plays. Mixing up the pass with a well-blocked run game. Played Marlon Lucky well as both a runner and receiver let alone Mr. Helu and when it came to D? Well, things broke down admittedly but when you’re working against a team like Graham and Crabtree, you’re giving up yards.

That said there were some guys on the field who really stepped up due to injury (Tyler Wortman and Matt Holt are just two examples) and Nebraska ended up winning the fourth quarter 21-7. Going into overtime I had a feeling that it would probably at least go to two and honestly it’s a shame that it didn’t. That was a loss, but it was a damn fine game and as much as it sucks to be on the losing end it was exciting to watch and I hope the Raiders enjoyed the game itself as much as the win. Good on ya, boys and girls.

2.) Discipline – The key to the game that 41% of 71 voters felt was the most important…well it was the most important and may have very well cost Nebraska the game. Suh seems to have a slight issue with the personal foul bug now and again but if there’s a true agitator for me when it comes to penalties, it’s the offensive line. I know that they’re better than what we’ve been shown and I know they can be COACHED to not do what they’re doing. Forget that, though.

If they continue to give up penalties in games, how about a little bit of reinforcement in practice? Stair running, push ups, make them push your truck back and forth down the street, but do something, Coach Cotton, because you’re making a potentially very good line cost Nebraska some very large chunks of yardage.

3.) Belief – When “Crab” jolted for six, I thought “here we go again”, but NO! Just when it looked as if Missouri had switched uniforms and Jeremy Maclin had transferred immediately violating a number of NCAA rules Nebraska came back and fought hard going in 17-7 at the break. The thing is I truly believed that the game was winnable seeing what I saw. It’s obvious that they, too, felt this way. This was a team fired up, ready to go into a Top 10 team’s digs and kick them in the mouth before leaving and it turns out they almost did after scoring 21 points in the final quarter to take it to OT.

Problem was, like I said, I felt it was going to have to go into multiples for Nebraska to win because I didn’t think they could keep Tech out of the end zone at least the first time. I think NU could’ve won by three, but Joe made his most unfortunate throw of the entire game and it was game over, man.

In Summary: Sucks, but I’ll tell you what: If the team we all saw plays the way they did and continues to improve even Oklahoma looks beatable. Note Sooners I said “beatable” not “they will be beaten”, “we’re going to beat them”, “Boomer Sooner isn’t going to be played 50 times”, but beatable. Hey, plus side, Bob and Brent won’t have to pull punches!

Before the TRUE rivalry is renewed however, we tangle with the RetroClones in a road game that this NU team should win. It will probably be a dogfight and Arnaud needs to be careful because without Phillip Bates who just up and quit the team behind him, there’s a big hole if he goes down.
Good week, Huskers. Beat ISU.

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:00:07 -0000

The first Bo Pelini depth chart was released today not too many surprises, but worth a discussion.

Offense:

Quarterback: 1 - Joe Ganz, 2 - Patrick Witt, 3- Zac Lee.

No surprises here, although you have to ask yourself what happens if Joe Ganz goes down with an injury. What does that do to the season?

I-Back: 1 - Marlon Lucky -or- Roy Helu -or- Quentin Castille

So there are three backs listed as co #1's. There seems to be a lot of buzz about this, and I'll be honest, I don't get it (the fuss, that is). Running backs get the holy crap beat out of them much worse than they used to, so you are not going to make it through a full season without your main guy getting banged up.

What is sad here is the name that's missing - Kenny Wilson. It's doubtful he'll play again due to his leg injury. It's easy to forget the potential that was there, but don't.

Fullback: 1 - Thomas Lawson, 2 - Justin Makovicka

No surprises, remember that while Callahan didn't use fullbacks on the run, Lawson caught three TD's last season which was as many as Nate Swift and Marlon Lucky, and more than the entire receiving corp besides Swift and Peterson.

Wide Receiver X: 1 - Nate Swift, 2 - Menelik Holt, 3 - Will Henry, 4- Chris Brooks

No surprise, although I guess I'm a little surprised that Chris Brooks is all the way down at #4.

Wide Receiver Z: 1 - Todd Peterson, 2 - Niles Paul or Curenski Gilleylen

Again, no surprise here.

Tight End: 1 - Mike McNeill, 2 - Dreu Young, 3 - Ryan Hill, 4 - Ben Cotton

Obviously Tyson Hetzer hasn't recovered enough from his spring knee injury to be listed on the roster at this point. Perhaps he'll join in later in the season. This position is more critical to offensive success than people are giving it, here's hoping they can perform well this season.

Offensive Line:

They're a unit, and we treat them like a unit.

LT: 1 - Mike Smith, 2 - Jaivorio Burkes
LG: 1 - Mike Huff, 2 - Keith Williams
C: 1 - Jacob Hickman, 2 - Mike Caputo
RG: 1 - Matt Slauson, 2 - DJ Jones
RT: 1 - Lydon Murtha, 2 - Marcel Jones

Lydon Murtha moves back to right tackle. Murtha is an enigma - the guy has the body size for a prototypical NFL left tackle, but gives that spot up to Mike Smith. Go figure. Burkes at #2 behind Mike Smith is a little surprise, but we'll see how the rotation comes out.

The key to this line is that some of these guys can move around to different positions. Slauson has played both guard and tackle, while Hickman has played guard and center. An incredibly solid group, with plenty of depth and experience.

Defense:

Nose Tackle: 1 - Ndamukong Suh, 2 - Shukree Barfield, 3 - Terrence Moore

Defensive Tackle: 1 - Ty Steinkuhler, 2 - Jared Crick

Base End: 1 - Zach Potter, 2 - Clayton Sievers

Open End: 1 - Barry Turner, 2 - Pierre Allen

No surprises here. Obviously losing Kevin Dixon hurt, but I don't see this group as thin as a lot of other people. Note that Baker Steinkuhler isn't listed - hopefully a redshirt season is in the works for him.

Linebackers:

Will Linebacker: 1 - Cody Glenn, 2 - Blake Lawrence

Mike Linebacker: 1 - Phillip Dillard, 2 - Will Compton, 3 - Colton Koehler

Buck Linebacker: 1 - Tyler Wortman, 2 - Sean Fisher

Obviously the linebacker position is of huge concern. Will Compton and Sean Fisher are both true freshmen. Dillard is a solid middle linebacker with experience, so the hope would be that Compton and Fisher aren't needed this season which will give them time to get stronger and learn. LaTravis Washington is not listed here due to injury. Nor is Nick Covey.

Is there a Husker fan who isn't cheering for Cody Glenn's position switch to work out well? Even beyond the sake of the team, you have to admire the guy for moving there. Lot of guts, love that guy.

Defensive Backfield:

Right Cornerback: 1 - Anthony West, 2 - Prince Amukamara

Left Cornerback: 1 - Armando Murillo, 2 - Eric Hagg

Strong Safety: 1 - Larry Asante, 2 - Major Culbert

Free Safety: 1 - Rickey Thenarse, 2 - Matt O'Hanlon

The starting four are a pretty decent group. What you have to ask is what happens when we move to using five or six defensive backs, ala defending Texas Tech. Amukamara has never played corner before, so the first three games may be key to getting him valuable experience. Eric Hagg and Major Culbert should be able to step into the extra roles if needed, so keep an eye on them should they get into the game against Western Michigan.

I realize I tagged everyone on the depth chart with this post, but hey it was my chance to check out our rosters, and make sure everything is okay. Corrections will be made!

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part One)

Bill C. — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:00:07 -0000

Alright, I guess I've talked about other conferences long enough. I haven't given myself enough time to crank through the non-BCS conference (and anybody who knows me well, knows there's nothing I enjoy more than pretending I know a lot about the Eastern Michigan's and San Jose State's of the world), so I'll just do a Big 12 preview (set up like the others, only with links to my BTBS posts about Mizzou's 8 conference opponents) and uncork an overall national preview post next week.

North Division

Missouri (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Points Per Play
Redzone Defense
Q4 Rushing Offense
3rd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q3 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q3 Passing S&P+
#4: Offensive 3rd Down S&P+, Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#104: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#103: Defensive Q3 S&P+
#99: Defensive Q4 Line Yards+
#96: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+, Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

You want to know how Mizzou differs from the stereotypical "spread offense, no defense" team? Check out some of the '+' rankings in which they ranked in the Top 20. On offense, there was Close-Game Rushing S&P+, Rushing S&P+, and 3rd Down Rushing S&P+/Line Yards+. On defense, there was Overall EqPts+, Close-Game Overall S&P+, Overall S&P+. After a poor overall non-conference performance, the Mizzou defense really was one of the best in the country over the last 10 games of the season. And the rushing offense was solid too. They had almost no weakness from October onward.

So what does that mean for 2008? Defensively, good things. Lots of good things. Even if they start slow again (and with so little new blood, you have to like the chances of avoiding that), this defense should end up in the Top 20 overall by end-of-season. One thing that Missouri did defensively better than just about any team in the country in '07 was take away its opponent's #1 (and sometimes #2) weapon. Juice Williams & Rashard Mendenhall, Maurice Purify & Marlon Lucky, Allen Patrick (and to an extent, Malcolm Kelly, though he still did rather well), Michael Crabtree, Todd Blythe, whoever Colorado's #1 weapon was, Jordy Nelson, Brandon McAnderson & Marcus Henry, Darren McFadden & Felix Jones. Just about everybody mentioned had extremely poor games against Missouri, at least until the game was out of hand in Q4. If you had a good #3 or #4 option, you could move the ball against Mizzou. But even then, your odds of major success using those options instead of your #1 or #2 are still limited.

I haven't mentioned the offense yet, but...well, you have to figure things are going to go just fine there. Yes, there are a couple of new components--a RSFr left tackle and the first new starting center since 2004, for instance. Plus, Tony Temple and Martin Rucker are gone. Mizzou fans have extremely high hopes in their replacements (and in the case of Rucker's replacement, Chase Coffman is already almost more accomplished than Rucker anyway), but you never know what you're going to get until they show it on the field.

Either way, though, an offense with Chase Daniel at the helm is going to succeed, and likely succeed big. If 2007 is any indication, there's one way to beat a Chase Daniel-led Missouri team: have a monstrous D-line, and hit Chase a lot. Really, only two teams on the '08 schedule have really good lines--Illinois and Texas. Illinois' is still as much about potential and athleticism as anything else, and Texas' was much better against the run than the pass, but those are the two biggest hurdles on the slate.

Verdict: While they may not be receiving any first-place votes, Missouri is as dangerous and proven as any team in the nation's Top Tier (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Mizzou, OU, USC, Ohio State). They have a Heisman candidate at QB, speed speed speed at WR, the best hands in the country at TE (Coffman), a proven D-line, toughness and speed at LB (led by Sean Weatherspoon), an already-grizzled lock-down CB (Carl Gettis), and the best safety in the country (William Moore)...not to mention the most dangerous return man in the country (Jeremy Maclin) and the most consistent kicker in the Big 12 (Jeff Wolfert). Barring a complete breakdown on the O-line, or a series of (KNOCK ON WOOD) injuries, Mizzou's got the talent to go undefeated and will be favored in at least 11 of the 12 games on their schedule. They are, for 2008 at least, the class of the Big 12 North.

Kansas (7-1)

Game-Changing Stats

Rushing Offense (particularly success rates)
Offensive Line Yards
Pass Defense Success Rates
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#3: Defensive Passing S&P+
#4: Defensive EqPts+, Defensive Close-Game Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#106: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#98: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#94: Defensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#90: Offensive Q1 S&P+

Kansas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

To me, the 2008 KU season will be determined by how they handle two things: 1) offensive line deficiencies and 2) a harder schedule...and to a slightly lesser extent, 3) special teams deficiencies. Their '+' numbers show that they would have probably done just fine with a harder schedule in 2007--they did play quite a few weak teams, but they still did better against those weak teams than most did. Taking strength of schedule into account, they still finished in my Top 10 in both offense and defense. I'd be surprised if the offense finished that high again--with OL problems and the losses of go-to guys Brandon McAnderson and Marcus Henry--the latter of whom I didn't touch on here, but who himself carried KU's offense at times, particularly against Oklahoma State--I could see KU's offense falling back into the #30-35 range. The defense however, should only go up. They have to replace James McClinton and Aqib Talib, but the personnel and experience levels are strong here, and unless the loss of DC Bill Young means more than I think it will mean, KU should end up with a Top 5 defense in my '+' rankings in 2008.

The main problem is, of course, the schedule. They travel to South Florida on 9/20. USF's offense isn't amazing, but it should still put up a few points. This will be the first major test in 2008 of KU's offense, and how it responds to George Selvie and an overall tough unit will determine the game. The conference schedule, meanwhile, includes trips to Norman (ouch) and Lincoln (NU will be looking for revenge), and it wouldn't be completely surprising for KU to go 0-2 in those two. The good news is that Texas Tech and Texas both have to come to Lawrence, and while they should win one of the two, winning both will be a chore.

This is a very good team, and there's no gimme loss on the schedule (okay, I guess the trip to Norman is a bit of a gimme). But while KU eeked by the likes of Colorado and ATM on the way to starting 11-0, they'll now have to beat at least two ranked teams (USF, OU) on the road, along with two more (TT, UT) at home to match that start in '08. And that's probably not going to happen.

Verdict: The running game was what made this offense click--without it, KU struggled--and it's unclear yet whether the Jake Sharp/Jocques Crawford combination can succeed at the same level as McAnderson did, especially without their All-American LT. This is the biggest question mark on a team with a strong leader at QB (Todd Reesing), a couple of dynamic weapons at WR (Dexton Fields, Dezmon Briscoe), and a top-to-bottom tough defense (led by LBs Joe Mortensen, Mike Rivera, and James Holt).

Colorado (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Rushing Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#11: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+
#13: Defensive Q2 Rushing S&P+
#13: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#122: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#120: Offensive Non-Passing Downs Rushing S&P+
#117: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+

Colorado Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Will Colorado be able to run the ball when it counts?

The answer to this one comes down to one name: Darrell Scott. Assuming he's ready for the opening bell, the All-World true freshman from California will be given every opportunity to carry the Colorado offense. If he doesn't do it, I doubt anybody else on that roster can. So let's focus on him.

...

[H]ere's roughly what we can expect from Scott this season:

NONCONFERENCE: 45.1% success rate / 0.38 PPP / 0.827 S&P
CONFERENCE: 41.9% / 0.33 PPP / 0.751 S&P
BOWL (assuming they make one): 36.8% / 0.56 PPP / 0.933 S&P

Over a 13-game season, this would result in the following averages: 42.5% success rate / 0.36 PPP / 0.789 S&P

Is that good? Bad? Well...Texas' Jamaal Charles put up a 0.958 S&P last season, so it's not amazing. But over the course of 20 touches/game, that's still going to be pretty productive.

Let's put it this way: last year, CU's three main RBs--Charles, Lockridge, Sumler--went for a line of 40.8% / 0.31 PPP /0.717 S&P. Scott's line would represent a 10% improvement over that...and 10% less pressure on Cody Nolte-Hawkins to make plays.

Anybody who watched Scott's highlight reel knows how good this guy is. But it takes the rarest of rare freshmen--ahem, Adrian Peterson--to make such a gigantic impact in his debut season...especially on a team with few weapons (and a relatively weak O-Line) around him. Maybe Scott really is that special...but most likely he's going to put up average to above-average numbers in 2008 before possibly busting out in 2009.

...

Bottom line: CU's defense will probably be about the same in 2008, and their offense will be at least marginally better...but probably not so much better that they can think about making a New Years Day Bowl run or anything. Honestly, with this year's schedule CU should really just feel glad to make a bowl and continue upon last year's progress. The home slate includes West Virginia and Texas, while they have to travel to Florida State (technically Jacksonville), Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Right now the schedule contains three likely wins (Colorado State, E'ern Washington, Iowa State), five likely losses (WV, @FlaSt, Texas, @KU, @MU), and four tossups (KSU, @ATM, OSU, @NU). To make it to 8-4, they'd have to win all four tossups AND spring an upset.

Dan Hawkins is building a decent program here, but I think we won't find out how high this program's ceiling is until the 2009 season. If they can tread water and make a repeat visit to Shreveport (or maybe Houston or Arizona...maybe El Paso) this December, they'll have to feel they did pretty well.

Verdict: As good as Darrell Scott could be by the end of the year (they're breaking him in slowly and not starting him--plus he's a bit banged up right now), CU will go as far as their defense takes them this year. Missouri game aside, they were pretty good against the pass, and that will serve them well in a division stocked with variations of the spread offense. Plus, George Hypolite is a nice, disruptive force on the D-line. But...good god, is that schedule brutal.

Kansas State (3-5)

Game-Changing Stats

Offensive Line Yards (particularly non-passing downs)
2nd Down Defense
Q4 Defense
1st Down Offense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#8: Offensive 2nd Down Rushing S&P+
#10: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#15: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#123: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#122: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#117: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Kansas State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So how far can KSU get in 2008 with a stout front seven on defense, a decent QB, solid special teams...a shaky secondary, and question marks everywhere else on offense? Again, I think the onus falls on the running game. If Patton (or whoever) can move the ball reliably, the schedule is rather manageable.

...

Anyway, an undefeated non-con slate certainly isn't out of the question, as that trip to Louisville doesn't seem as daunting as it might have a year ago.

KSU starts the conference slate with a 4-of-6-on-the-road stretch--if they can win one road game out of trips to College Station, Boulder, Lawrence, and Columbia, they should consider it tremendous progress. Meanwhile, their two homegames in that stretch are against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. OUCH.

So really, I'd say the best-case scenario for KSU is to be 2-4 at that point (best best case is 3-3, as for some reason I think the KU-KSU game will be a dogfight, even in Lawrence). If they're, say, 1-5 at that point and 4-6 overall (or, even worse, 0-6 and 3-7), I'd say it won't matter that they finish with home games against ISU and NU. The players might be in full mail-it-in stage as they were last November, and the Prince administration could be on its last legs.

A total collapse is certainly a reasonable scenario with that schedule, but another decent start to the season, and 4-4/8-4 is reasonable too. I'll hedge my bets and predict a 7-5 record here, with an undefeated non-conference slate and conference wins over NU, ISU, and...uhh...someone else. CU, maybe. Or Tech. Somebody.

Verdict: The more I think about K-State, the less convinced I am that they'll totally collapse this year. (Then again, the more I thought about test answers in school, the more likely I was to get them wrong.) While I do think the limitations of Josh Freeman (accuracy), the secondary (not enough firepower to compete seriously in the North), and Ron Prince (not being a very good coach) put KSU's ceiling at around 8-4, I do think they're relatively likely to sneak back into bowl consideration after a monstrous collapse in November '07.

Nebraska (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Defensive Success Rates
2nd Down Rushing Defense
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Non-Passing Downs Passing Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Passing Downs S&P+
#3: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#3: Offensive Q2 Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Defensive 3rd Down Rushing S&P+
#119: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+
#117: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#113: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+, Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Nebraska Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

So what can we expect from Nebraska in 2008? The easy answer is, who the hell knows? They're the biggest unknown quantity in the conference outside of Manhattan, KS. But we won't settle for that easy answer.

Nebraska's offense averaged 0.27 more PPP with Joe Ganz behind center than with Sam Keller. That's not sustainable. But 0.10 may be within the realm of possibility. Over the course of 60-80 plays, that's a TD more per game. That may be a bit much, but we'll go with it.

On defense, NU just doesn't have enough talent in the front seven to improve too considerably. They have a series of DE's--Barry Turner, Zach Potter, and especially Pierre Allen--who have shown varying amounts of potential, but who haven't proven themselves to be every-down playmakers. Maybe a 'fire under the ass' coach like Pelini will be what they need...and maybe not. Ty Steinkuhler and Ndamukong Suh could be solid at DT, but Steinkuhler is limited and Suh completely disappeared after a decent start to '07. At LB...their leading playmaker is Tyler Wortman...who made all of 3.5 'successful' tackles in '07. Ouch.

(That's the other thing--even though their defense was wretched, players who made 70% of their 'successful' tackles departed after '07.)

Despite the lack of potential, let's say that the defense also improves by 0.10 PPP, which would be hefty improvement. That would mean the offense and defense are both 7 points better. Well...five of NU's seven losses were by 18 points or more. A 14-point improvement doesn't take you that far. That would, however, take them back to the Oklahoma State-level in regard to overall performance. That's a decent step in the right direction, and it--along with their massive homefield advantage--is why I said in yesterday's Roundtable that 8-4 is quite possible.

Verdict: I'll stick with what I said above. Despite the fact that college football wants Nebraska to be good, their ceiling is also pretty well-defined. Your defense can only improve so much in one year, but Joe Ganz, Marlon Lucky (the main reason for those great 3rd down numbers above), and a great homefield advantage will move Nebraska back into the bowl picture.

Iowa State (2-6)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Defense (particularly in close games)
Non-Passing Downs Defense
Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#14: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#22: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#22: Defensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#24: Offensive 3rd Down Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive 2nd Down S&P+
#124: Offensive 1st Down Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#123: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+

In all, Iowa State ranked #100 or worse in exactly 50 of my 100 '+' categories. In a conference full of offensive firepower, Iowa State had less than none. Meanwhile, it seems almost every team in the country was good enough to rank in the Top 10 in one of the 100 '+' categories. Iowa State managed to rank in the Top 25 in only four.

Iowa State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

The following things are quite possible:

Iowa State could once again play over their heads and win a couple games they shouldn't, just by being physical, taking advantage of turnovers, and slogging through to victory in the fourth quarter.

In their second year of adapting to his philosophy, ISU's defense could improve despite losses to their front seven.

Alexander Robinson could have a breakout (i.e. 800-1000 yard) season.

One of the WR newcomers (or somebody...anybody...) could become at least something of a deep threat to the tune of 1.00 PPP or more.

The secondary could be in the top half of the Big 12.

And...

If all those "coulds" come to fruition...Iowa State could win 6 games.

The ceiling's not very high for ISU this year, but a lot of the likely key cogs for the 2008 edition will return in 2009, when (as has been written here many, many, many times before) the North goes completely up for grabs again. Not saying the balance of power could shift in the direction of Ames by any means, but with an experienced offense and potentially mean defense, they could at least make some noise in '09. Just not in '08.

Verdict: I'm not sure if a college football team has ever missed a 4-year starting QB less than Iowa State will miss Bret Meyer in 2008. However...on an offense that was so horrible in so many different ways, Meyer can only shoulder so much blame. Expect incremental improvement in just about every unit, and expect Iowa State to be in position to steal a game here or there, but...the talent gap between Iowa State and most of the rest of the conference is just ginormous.

BALANCE OF POWER

Part Two (South Division and predictions) tomorrow.