SB Nation - Jaivorio Burkes

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Jon Johnston — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:03:22 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

I know one of our guys is somewhere down at that end of the field.... here goes.....

Before I start, let me note that it's always an easy proposition to suggest firing people, especially when you're not the one that has to pull the trigger. If you've read my writing long enough, you know that I have a weak spot for firing people - I'm not part of the crowd that's constantly asking for someone to be shot in the head. It's too easy a solution, although I admit, a popular one.

I like the Shawn Watson's philosophy of a "multiple offense". I'm not ignorant of the fact that a powerful running attack is part of Nebraska's heritage, but the ability to shift into a spread and use the zone read and spread option plays give us a huge advantage over our opponents - we just didn't execute them well this season.

I disagree with the notion that Nebraska can't recruit skill position players that can run anything other than a power running game. If Bill Callahan could recruit decent quarterbacks (Zac Taylor, Joe Ganz) and receivers (Maurice Purify, Nate Swift), then why can't this staff?

You can write off some of the offensive problems as turnover in players, but only some. Still, the West Coast offense is largely dependent upon timing and that timing has to be developed between a quarterback and his receivers. We knew it would be tough to replace Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen the difficulties Watson faced early in the season when the receivers were not performing as well as was needed. Menelik Holt started the first five games, then disappeared along with Curenski Gilleylen and Chris Brooks. Holt had 15 receptions for 175 yards, none after the Iowa State game. Brooks had 13 receptions for 177 yards, but none since Texas Tech when he had five receptions for 66 yards to lead the receivers. Gilleylen had 16 receptions for 299 yards, none after Iowa State.

They were replaced by Khiry Cooper and Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie finished the regular season with 13 receptions for 129 yards, with 12 of those receptions coming after Iowa State. Cooper's receptions were split throughout the season, as he finished with 13 receptions for 80 yards, with seven coming after Iowa State.

The only consistent receiver all season was Niles Paul and even he had problems (turnover at the goal line, Iowa State). Paul finished with 36 catches for 673 yards to lead the receivers, having six receptions against Iowa State and 13 the rest of the season.

That level of turnover doesn't allow a quarterback to develop the much heralded "chemistry" with his receivers. Granted, Lee's accuracy didn't seem to improve over the season, so you could argue it didn't make much difference as to whom he was throwing the ball.

As for Barney Cotton, the offensive line did progress somewhat throughout the season although the offensive output did not. The number of holding calls and false starts dropped as the season went on, and the line was asked to do a lot with defenses stacked against them to stop the run.

Add to that a general lack of depth. Jacob Hickman played well at center, and Ricky Henry started every game at right guard (the position that was unsettled before the season began). Marcel Jones and D.J. Jones played in rotation at right tackle while Mike Smith started every game at left tackle. Derek Meyer started when Keith Williams was injured, then Williams took over the starting left guard position for the final ten games. The loss before the season of Jaivorio Burkes at tackle and incoming freshman Brent Qvale certainly didn't help the depth issue. Off the top of my head, what we didn't see is the level of in-game rotation that we've seen in past seasons. (I"ll look into this more in the off-season.)

I suspect that most people would like to see Cotton fired because of his association with failed coaching regimes of the past (Solich at Nebraska, McCarney at ISU) rather than knowing much about offensive line coaching. In his defense, keep in mind that, other than Ricky Henry, these are still Bill Callahan's offensive linemen (In other words, Callahan's preference for size over speed still plagues the offense).

Going back to Watson, I'm not 100% sure what to think, other than he got hit with a perfect storm this season - a new starting quarterback, inconsistent receivers, and an offensive line that, well, had its problems. Add to these the fact that one quarterback left before the season started (Patrick Witt) while another was lost to injury at the start of the season (Kody Spano). Running back depth was severely hampered by dismissal (Quentin Castille) and injury (Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead).

A counter argument would point out that every team has to deal with injuries and then list all of the teams that did well despite them. For that, I have a response: Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with firing a coach, especially an offensive coordinator, is that you're going to throw away a year while the new guy implements his system. The counter argument here (I assume) is to bring in someone who runs a much simpler offense, so easy that you and I and a trained monkey can run it. Or perhaps magic happens and everyone instantaneously learns the new offense by having chips implanted in their brains or something like that. (If you're voting for a simplified offense, I vote for Texas Tech's then, because they replace quarterbacks and receivers year after year and seem to get the same fantastic results.)

So, give me your answer to the title question. Does one of these guys need to answer for this season? Or maybe both?

Putting it in Perspective: Further Statistical Comparisons Between Nebraska and Iowa State

Jon Johnston — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Dave Weaver - AP

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I did the Under the Hood comparison for the Iowa State game earlier this week. Now it's time to look a little closer at some of the more esoteric stats. The stats are listed by national and conference ranking, not by raw numbers. This gives us a better perspective of where the Huskers are with regards to the rest of the teams in the nation.

The stats don't pain a pretty picture for our Huskers.

All stats are courtesy of cfbstats.com

	Nebraska		Iowa State
	National	Big 12	National	Big 12
3rd Down Conversions	25	3	28	4
Red Zone Conversions (Score %)	59	8	59	8

Turnover Margin	37	4	60	8
Sacks	24	4	79	10
Tackles for Loss	37	4	67	9
Sacks Allowed	40	5	3	2
Punting (Avg)	81	7	19	4
Punt Returns	43	6	98	11
Kickoff Returns	66	6	74	8
Penalties (Yds/G)	104	6	42	2

The penalty comparison is in yards per game, and the Huskers are getting killed in this category. You could complain about Big 12 referees, but that would only be a rationalization for what is a huge problem. We're one of the worst teams in the nation (and there are SIX Big 12 teams worse than we are, including the worst team in the nation, Oklahoma) in this category. Nebraska is averaging 8.5 penalties per game, ranking 102nd nationally.
Some penalties can be accepted for the sake of aggressive play, but the false start and holding penalties don't fall into that area. A lot of the offensive inconsistency can be traced to penalties and the sad thing is, it's a correctable problem. It requires better focus and discipline by the offensive line.
It may be hard to believe, but Iowa State is one of the best teams in the nation when it comes to giving up sacks. They simply don't do it. It isn't because of a quick tempo offense, short passing game or magic, it's because of the number of starts their offensive line has had as a unit. Last spring, the Wall Street Journal broke down the number of offensive line starts for each team in the nation. Iowa State was fourth in the Big 12, while Nebraska, minus Jaivorio Burkes and Andy Christensen, who hasn't started a game this season, dropped to tenth. That's a huge difference, and it's shown this season.
I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere this week, but Alex Henery is having a rough time performing his punting duties this season. He reeled off punts of 32, and 27 yards against Tech (another was only 29 yards but was fair caught inside the 20 at the Tech 18), giving up valuable field position.
The red zone conversion rate above is scoring percentage. Neither team is doing well in that category. The Huskers have a touchdown percentage of only 60%, which ranks us 55th nationally. By comparison, Iowa State is at 64% and 44th nationally. In our losses, the red zone score percentage drops us to 92nd, and against winning teams, we're at 73rd. Obviously if you're not scoring, you're not winning games, another area in which we must improve to win the Big 12 North.
There's one more set of statistics we'll look at, and I did not list that above. Nebraska's offense has 30 plays of 15+ yards and only 15 plays of 30+ yards in passing. In rushing, they have 25 plays of 10+, and only 11 plays of 20+ yardage. By comparison, Iowa State ha 32 plays of 15+ and 10 plays of 25+ yards passing. In rushing, the Cyclones have 47 plays of 10+ yards in rushing, with 10 of 20+ yards.
The bottom line - Nebraska's offensive line isn't reaching their second-level blocks on running plays. On passing plays, the offense isn't creating big plays because they're not throwing the ball downfield, or the receivers aren't breaking tackles on short passes. Again, not a good sign and something that must be improved.

What Worries You Most About the 2009 Husker Football Season?

Jon Johnston — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:00:34 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska's Zac Lee throws during football practice - are you more worried about Lee's performance than anything else this coming season? If so, you're probably in the majority.

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I did an interview last night at 8:45 pm,with Lane Grindle on KFAB. It's kind of weird doing these things because I never know what questions they're going to ask ahead of time. There's nothing wrong with that - obviously I was on the radio to talk about the Nebraska yearbook and the upcoming season - two subjects I'd better know something about, eh?

Anyway, during the interview, Grindle asked me what I thought was the biggest issue for the 2009 season, basically, what should Husker fans be most concerned about?

My answer wasn't all that stunning, I'm sure 95% of Husker fans would come up with the same answer (the other 5% being stoned on allergy medicine might say something weird involving Bob Devaney and hats).

I'm sure that most people are worried about the quarterback position, about Zac Lee, but that's not what I'm most concerned about. I'm worried about the offensive line. You get a good enough offensive line and your quarterback doesn't have to do all that much, the greatest proof of that being that Trent Dilfer has a Super Bowl ring while Dan Marino doesn't.

We lost two right tackles from last season, Lydon Murtha and Jaivorio Burkes. That's not a good thing because we really need to find two right tackles to replace them. The right guard position isn't settled, the hope being that Ricky Henry can get his stuff together and assume the position. If he doesn't, we'll see Jacob Hickman move to right guard, and Mike Caputo take over center. Maybe that's not such a bad mix, but what it does is point out the weakness in the overall rotation.

I didn't sound this articulate while on the radio - that's the beauty of writing - you can go back and edit yourself and make yourself sound a lot better. However, that is what I'm most worried about this season - can Barney Cotton get his line unit together for the season?

Maybe others are more concerned about the quarterback. Actually, I'm guessing most are, in fact, way more people are concerned about the quarterback, like I'm part of that 5% group that's stoned on allergy medicine. Is that the case? What are you worried most about?

What Will The 2009 Nebraska Offense Look Like?

Jon Johnston — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska's Kyler Reed (25), and J.T. Kerr work on blocking drills Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, during the first day of fall football practice camp in Lincoln, Neb. What do you want out of your tight ends - better pass receiving skills or better blocking?

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I keep trying to get a handle on what this year's Husker offense might look like. It's troublesome because the assets that we have - running backs and tight ends - lead one to believe that we should move into double tight end sets and run the ball. Putting the offense into this type of formation also requires that you have a great offensive line that can run the ball when they need to.

And that's the other quandary. I mean no offense to our current group of linemen, the fact is that Nebraska's offensive line is nowhere near the powerhouse lines we had in the Osborne era. (Well, the fact is that no one has the offensive lines that Osborne had, largely because the defensive players have gotten that much better just like the six million dollar man - stronger and faster.)

Barney Cotton is still looking for someone to fill the right guard position, and losing both Lydon Murtha and Jaivorio Burkes at the right tackle position leaves that right side suspect. It doesn't give much confidence that we can rely on a tight set-based run game, but then there are the tight ends, Mike McNeill, Dreu Young, Ben Cotton and Kyler Reed. Surely there's a boost of confidence with such good depth and athleticism. Maybe get the running game going and then play-action to them like in the old days. McNeill and Reed have the speed to get behind defenses, while Young and Cotton have the size and strength to muscle up for the ball.

That's it, right? That's the offense we can expect to see. Right? Right?

Unfortunately, tight sets are diametrically opposed to the one theme that's made offenses in the Big 12 as explosive as they are right now - the spread formations. Regardless of the offensive philosophy - spread to run or pass - it seems that an offense must incorporate some elements of the spread to be successful.

If we spread to pass, we'll have to find more than one playmaker amongst our group of receivers. If we spread to run, will Shawn Watson allow Zac Lee to keep the ball knowing full well that if Lee is injured the next two quarterbacks have never taken a snap in a college game?

One of last year's bread and butter plays was the wide receiver screen because Todd Peterson and Nate Swift complemented each other so well. With both of them gone, will we see much of the play this season? Can Menelik Holt and Niles Paul complement each other in the same way?

I'm curious as to what other Husker fans have to say about our offense this season. What will this year's offense look like? What do you think will work? What will be the bread and butter plays off which we feast?

So many questions. Husker football fans are the best football geeks I know, so what say ye?

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe // 07.29.09

Seth C — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:34:34 -0000

Odds and Ends

There's a ton of links this morning, but if you take the time to click on one link, click on this link from SB Nation and Illinois blog, Hail to the Orange, who attended the Big Ten media days and had this very cool story of coach Joe Paterno. It's worth your time. I promise.

Barking Carnival's TaylorTRoom with some fantastic thoughts on Big 12 defenses in 2008.

ESPN's Tim Griffin with a breakdown of the Big 12 universities in total athletics revenue during the 2007-2008 season. If there was ever a case of the have's and have not's, this is it. And just to pique your interest, Texas Tech finished second to last in the Big 12, ahead of Iowa St., #58 overall. For those who don't think that Texas Tech is constantly fighting an uphill battle when it comes to production on the field, court or any other playing surface, then maybe this is what puts you over the top.

Texas Tech Football

It's Texas Tech's turn at the Big 12 Media Days and you can watch the whole thing on the official Big 12 website or on ESPN News. The Red Raiders are scheduled for a 9:45 a.m. start, but it appears that the Big 12 is doing an excellent job of getting the video posted relatively quickly. As some of you may know, I'm in the DFW area and the Captain Mike Leach was on 103.3 ESPN and 1310 The Ticket almost right in a row. I was out in our garden (yes, I have a garden) and laughing out loud as he talked about his Michael J. Fox haircut and his comparison of Taylor Potts to Kenny Stabler (not the drinking part) and Bart Starr. My wife thought I was/am crazy and after explaining it to her, she still thought I'm way too obsessed.

Hat-tip to redraidersax for the FanShot of this video of ESPN's Mark Schlabach, who thinks that QB Taylor Potts will be one of the break-out stars for 2009 and could lead the nation in passing with the Air Raid offense. . . the Ferrari of college football:

Every time that Chris Brown of Smart Football writes about the David and Goliath Strategies, I feel like he's talking to Texas Tech. This is worth your time this morning, for sure.

Scouting the Enemy

Baylor: ESPN's Tim Griffin writes that WR David Gettis needs to have a breakout season . . . The Boy of Rock M Nation has the Beyond the Box Score offensive preview . . . SAEN's Mike Finger talks with LB Joe Pawelek . . . LAJ's Don Williams writes that Baylor's hopes are on the shoulders of QB Robert Griffin, III . . .

Oklahoma: SAEN's Brent Zwerneman notes that OU's biggest question is it's offensive line . . . ESPN's Tim Griffin also notes that the OU offensive line will be scrutinized this season . . . DMN's Mike Heika who talked with head coach Bob Stoops on why players should stick around for all four years of college as there's a huge difference between first round and second round money . . .

Kansas: DMN's Mike Heika with head coach Mark Mangino who says that Kansas is on its way . . . ESPN's Tim Griffin notes that Mangino believes that WR Dezmon Briscoe will be ready when the Jayhawks start practice, despite being on thin ice for grades all spring and summer . . .

Nebraska: Dr. Saturday's Matt Hinton asks when will we know if Nebraska is back . . . Corn Nation's corn blight on the loss of offensive lineman Jaivorio Burkes . . . CT's Dave Matter on the return of the Cornhusker's running game . . .

Roundups and Notebooks: EDBS with 12 questions not asked at the Big 12 Media Days . . . LAJ's Don Williams rounds up yesterday's events . . . CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd has five things he believes about the Big 12 . . . Barking Carnival's Scipio Tex and BON's Dime Coverage with their usual awesome recaps . . . FWST's Dwain Price and Mike Jones with a notebook and previews of Baylor, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma . . . ESPN's Tim Griffin on how Big 12 Commissioner Don Beebe believes that the television issue is his top concern . . .

Loss of Jaivorio Burkes Deals Blow to Husker Offensive Line - Linebacker Matt Holt to Sit Out 2009

Jon Johnston — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:00:25 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Nebraska football coach Bo Pelini is shown during Big 12 Media Day in Irving, Texas, Monday, July 27, 2009. Pelini announced that tackle Jaivorio Burkes was no longer with the Husker football team. (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

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Bo Pelini announced at Big 12 media days that Jaivorio Burkes was no longer with the Husker football team. It wasn't news as much as a confirmation of what was already suspected - that Burkes medical condition would keep him from playing this year. There was hope that things would work out for the best, but it just wasn't to be.

Unfortunately, the news leaves the Huskers looking for a right tackle, as Burkes had proved himself to be more of an adequate replacement for Lydon Murtha. Burkes' departure puts Marcel Jones in position to be the starting right tackle.

Right guard remains unsettled - in the spring, Jacob Hickman had moved to the right guard position with walk-on Mike Caputo playing well enough to take over center due to Hickman's move. Hickman stated that he'd start fall at the center position, meaning Ricky Henry must step up into the right guard spot. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hickman back at guard with Caputo starting at center.

As it stands now, the starting line would look like:

Left Tackle - Mike Smith
Left Guard - Keith Williams
Center - Jacob Hickman/Mike Caputo
Right Guard - Jacob Hickman/Ricky Henry
Right Tackle - Marcel Jones

Those would appear to be Barney Cotton's best five players at this point. Obviously more linemen are needed to provide time in rotation and to provide depth should there be more injuries. With a 12-game regular season, injuries are to be expected.

Fall practice will find the Cotton searching for the players who are going to step up and fill in the rotation. Ricky Henry needs to prove himself capable of playing a guard position, while DJ Jones can provide time at either guard or tackle. Derek Meyer, a transfer from Kansas State could fill in nicely here, and an added bonus would be Andy Christensen's return. Redshirt freshman Brandon Thompson should see more playing time should he get his act together in the fall.

It was also announced that linebacker Matt Holt would sit 2009 out and take a redshirt year due to a shoulder injury. Given the number of players vying for playing time at linebacker this isn't earth-shattering news, unless, of course, you're Matt Holt. Holt played well in 2008, getting a start against Texas Tech when he had a career-high nine tackles. Unfortunately, he was injured against Kansas and missed the rest of the 2008 season.

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

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Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Offensive Line Experience Counts - Huskers Have It, Kansas Doesn't

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:00:12 -0000

Now that I’m about finished with Cornhusker Kickoff 2009, it’s time to get back to some football here on Corn Nation. I realize there isn’t a lot going on out there, but after burying my head in our favorite team for the last few weeks, I’ve got more to say over the next few weeks.

If you were looking for another reason to place Nebraska ahead of Kansas in the race to win the Big 12 North in 2009, you might look no further than the Wall Street Journal where they’ve broken down the number of returning starts for each offensive line unit in the nation. Nebraska comes in at 61 starts, tied for fourth place in the Big 12.

Big 12 Offensive Line Unit Combined Starts.

At the bottom of the list is Kansas. A lot of pundits are picking (or will pick) Kansas to win the Big 12 North next season based on the return of their skill players. Todd Reesing returns at quarterback, as do Kerry Meier and Dezmon Briscoe at receiver, and Jake Sharp at running back. That’s a lot of offensive production, but it won’t go unless the offensive line works well. Todd Reesing got beat up a fair amount last season because Kansas couldn’t mount a good running game on a consistent basis. Given the state of their offensive line that might not change a lot this season.

You might be tempted to think that returning starters don’t make that big a difference, but if there was a unit on which it does, it’s the offensive line. The offensive line must work together more than any other unit on the field. Sports fans talk about the chemistry that exists between quarterback and receivers, but rarely does the same conversation come up regarding offensive linemen.

Understanding line blocking calls isn’t rocket science - most linemen can get those without a huge amount of trouble. However, when something unexpected occurs, the linemen must know instinctively what the guy next to them is going to do. The unexpected might be a defensive line shift into an odd gap alignment, or a linebacker moving up close to the line. If the unit is experienced in working together, they’ll make adjustments without problems. If they’re not, disaster can strike.

Nebraska’s offensive line starts boil down as follows:

Jacob Hickman: 23 (past three seasons)
Mike Smith: 12 (2008)
Keith Williams: 9 (2008)
Marcel Jones: 1 (2008)
Jaivorio Burkes: 7 (3 in 2007, 4 in 2008)
Andy Christensen: 9 (6 in 2006, 3 in 2007,)

There’s a lot of speculation that Burkes won’t play again, or at least in 2009, so taking away his seven starts would drop Nebraska further down the list. Take away Andy Christensen’s nine starts (as it’s unknown as to whether he can return to 2007 form), and we drop to tenth place. Still, we stay ahead of Kansas. If you further consider that other teams are probably in the same position we are, things look much better.

Nebraska 2009 Spring Football: Bo Pelini As Managment: No Job is Safe

Jon Johnston — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 06:37:29 -0000

Bo Pelini couldn’t have been clearer about his emphasis coming into spring practice than if he were a manager at any one of thousands of companies across the country. His message was clear and to the point:

No job is safe.

Pelini re-iterated on several occasions that coming into spring starting positions are wide open to competition. While this is a common motivational tool, it serves the purpose of putting the players into the mindset of knowing that they’re not only going to have to work hard throughout spring practice, but that they’ll need to work hard beyond that and into fall if they expect to gain a starting role in the fall.

Bo Pelini in charge? You betcha.
Photo by Dennis Hubbard

Pelini’s emphasis was no clearer than when his response when asked about returning senior linebacker Phillip Dillard:

He is healthy and I expect him to come out there and compete for a job.

Translated - If you don’t put in the effort, you’re not going to have one.

Pelini also made clear that he focuses on details as he mentioned that he had just come from a class, clearly checking to verify that his student-athletes hadn’t forgotten the “student” aspect of their job description.

It's this kind of attention to detail that turns teams into champions. It was comforting to hear that coming from the current head coach of Nebraska Cornhusker football.

Other noteworthy developments

Quarterbacks:

Freshman recruit Cody Green has a soft-tissue hip injury and will miss some spring practice. Pelini indicated that the injury wasn't serious, but he also made mention of the fact that Green should be considered a high school senior and that it's a bonus that he's already on campus. Reading between the lines indicating that it may not be much of an issue because he doesn't expect that Green will be playing much this year.

The other big announcement regarding the quarterback position is the movement of Latravis Washington from linebacker to quarterback. The move makes sense for the team and for Washington. Coming into last year’s spring game there was an enormous lack of depth at linebacker. This year the position appears to be overflowing. With the departure of Patrick Witt, the quarterback position is the spot that is suffering from a depth issue. Washington, who played quarterback in high school, adds depth to the position. The move offers Washington a better chance of getting on the field, and at the least adds another player to round out rotations for practice. The move benefits Washington and the team.

Offensive Line:

Jaivorio Burkes will miss spring practice due to an undisclosed medical condition. With regards to Andy Christensen, Pelini stated:

Andy is getting better and making progress. He is not where he or we want him to be. He’s been off for over a year and he is getting close. The spring is going to be big for him.

Secondary Theme:

The secondary theme regarding Pelini's message is an indication of just how rough of shape the defense was in when he arrived last year. Pelini indicated that the Huskers will do more with the defense this coming season because his players are more experienced with his philosophy and methodology.

Again, nice to hear from the current head coach of Nebraska Football.

Nebraska 2009 Spring Preview: Offensive Line

Jon Johnston — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:00:14 -0000

It’s no secret that in 2009 the Huskers must be able to run the ball well to be successful. Nebraska must establish the run early in the season to take pressure off the passing game and it will be up to the offensive line to make that happen. Replacing a successful quarterback and two exceptional receivers will do that.

Gone from last year’s team are linemen Matt Slauson, Lydon Murtha, Mike Huff. With 79 starts between them, you might get the impression the Huskers have lost a lot of experience. Unfortunately, Mike Huff never seemed to find a rhythm in 2008 and was replaced as a starter at left guard by Mike Smith. Murtha was inconsistent due to repetitive injuries and missed four games which provided starting opportunities for Jaivorio Burkes and Marcel Jones. Matt Slauson was a steady, solid performer at right guard, the only line position for which Nebraska does not have a returning starter.

Matt Slauson has moved on in 2009. A key question - will anyone else wear the face paint the way he did?
Photo by Dennis Hubbard

The good news is that the 2008 ground game improved over the season, as Nebraska finished ranked 37th in rushing offense, averaging just under 170 yard per game with 4.54 yard per carry average. That was good enough to finish fourth in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma State (8th, 245.46 ypg, 5.48 avg), Oklahoma (20th, 198.50 ypg, 4.72 avg), and Baylor (21st, 195.75 ypg, 4.88 avg).

If the 2009 depth chart were drawn up today, it would probably look like this (career starts in parentheses):

LT - Mike Smith (11), Jr, all 11 starts in 2008.
LG - Keith Williams (8), Jr, all 8 starts in 2008.
C - Jacob Hickman (22), Sr, started every game in 2008.
RG - DJ Jones, Jr or Ricky Henry, Jr
RT - Marcel Jones (1), So, or Jaivorio Burkes (7), Jr, Burkes may have health issues.

Others To Watch:

Andy Christensen - Sr - Can Christensen work himself back into the rotation or into a starting role at guard after a difficult 2008 season? A NCAA decision still awaits, but should rule in his favor.

Derek Meyer - Sr. - Meyer transferred from Kansas State, sitting out last year. He has only one season of eligibity left, but had started his first five games at tackle as a redshirt freshman in 2006 before sitting out the rest of the season with an injury.

Ricky Henry - Jr - Henry sat out last season after transferring from South Dakota State, where he started his first two seasons at right guard. He will challenge DJ Jones at that position, or the other way around.

Mike Caputo - Walk-on who worked his way into the depth chart as a backup behind Jacob Hickman.

Cruz Barrett - Jr - There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of buzz around Barrett, but he may surprise and be another challenger in the guard rotation.

Others:

Max McShane - So
Brandon Thompson - RFr
Brian Thorson - RFr
Nick Ash - Fr
Brandon Chapek - Fr
Jesse Coffey - Fr
Dwight Jones - Fr
Brant Qvale - Fr
Jeremiah Sirles - Fr

There should be plenty of competition for the starting positions, and depth seems pretty even across the position. If you had to pick a player that holds the key to success, it'd be Jacob Hickman at the center position, who's started for nearly two years of football. You can't buy that kind of experience, at least not in college football.

Spring football will be a success if all of the guys in the mix don't get injured. With the potential to play 14 games a season, you can never have enough offensive linemen.