SB Nation - Ryan Hill

Nebraska vs Oklahoma: Post Game Overreaction - Blackshirt Defense Puts a Beatdown on the Sooners!

Jon Johnston — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:50:28 -0000

by Dave Weaver - AP

That look says it all......

What a win! Nebraska's defense proved they don't need a huge offensive effort to come away with a big win. The Huskers had only seven first downs, 39 yards passing, converted one of 14 third downs and had 180 yards of total offense, but came away with five interceptions to stop the Sooners 10-3.

If you're one of those who want to see a Husker team that smashes it's opponents and puts a lot of points on the board, you're going to have to wait at least another season. If you're one that wants to see defense take over and win a game, you're going to be having a lot of fun for the rest of the season.

Over halfway through the season, it seems as if this team has finally accepted who and what it is. The defense recognized the fact that a great offense isn't just going to appear out of mid-air and decided that they'd help out. Prince Amukamara intercepted a pass and returned it to the one. First-and-one at the one??? Hey, this Husker offense can handle that, and they did, scoring on a play-action pass to tight end Ryan Hill. That was all the points that was needed as the defense continues to show why it's the best in the land.

Earlier in the week, our Q&A session indicated that Sooner quarterback Landry Jones would be accustomed to facing a tough defense, having already played against Miami and Texas. Not so fast, my friend!The Huskers only sacked Jones twice, but they harassed him all night. They harassed him straight into five interceptions. Every time it seemed that Oklahoma was about to break the game open, there was a Blackshirt getting their hands on the ball. I loved that part.

The offense did just enough to keep the defense from getting completely exhausted. Roy Helu Jr was magnificent, rushing 20 times for 138 yards. He didn't look injured or hesitant, but was the Helu we saw at the beginning of the season. Cody Green started, but was replaced by Zac Lee on that first-and-one at the one drive. Shawn Watson apparently decided that he didn't need a playmaker behind center, but a game manager. Lee ran the option with more deliberation after Pelini was seen yelling at him for a poorly executed option play in which Lee pitched the ball way too early, resulting in a turnover while the Huskers could have put more points on the board.

Matt O'Hanlon had three interceptions - not bad for a walk-on. He and linebacker Phillip Dillard were everywhere at once. If they weren't destroying the Sooner offense, Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick were. O'Hanlon is the easy choice as the defensive player of the game until you consider Alex Henery. He started off a little rocky, but then became a field position, Sooner squishing machine all by hisself. Henery routinely punted the Huskers out of trouble an turned the battle of field position against the Sooners. You could say that Henery won the game in the first quarter. Oklahoma had started the game with three consecutive drives on Nebraska's side of the field, coming away with nothing (ha!). The Huskers' field position was horrible until Henery ripped off a 66-yard punt that the Huskers downed at the two-yard line. One big play, and the field position was re-arranged.

The win means that Nebraska controls it's own destiny in the Big 12 North. Win your games, you win the North. It's that simple. With this Blackshirt defense it's certainly within reach.

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Nati Harnik - AP

Is Bo Pelini ready for Year #5 expectations in Year #2?

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Alright, through the non-conference slate, the BTBS Projections (which had none of my own biases in them whatsoever--I actually downgraded Mizzou's initial status in the original projections) have Missouri heading into conference play at 4-0, albeit with tight victories over Illinois and Nevada. As they head into their first weeknight ESPN home game since 1992's 6-0 loss to Colorado, Mizzou could either be primed for another North title run or ready for a stiff reality check to head into town. Or, you know, they could be 2-2 and desperate. We'll see. First up in conference, for the third straight year, are the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I'm bringing my A-game for this one (as I'm sure Missouri will too)--time to go waaaaaaaaaaaay beyond the box score.

With 1:43 left in the Colorado-Nebraska game, Alex Henery booted a beyond-clutch 57-yard field goal to give Nebraska a 33-31 lead. Forty-five seconds later, Ndamukong Suh intercepted a Cody Hawkins pass and took it to the house for the game-clinching TD in a 40-31 win. If Henery had missed that field goal, Nebraska would have likely lost and fallen to 7-5; they probably wouldn't have qualified for the Gator Bowl, and without the proceeding win over Clemson upon which to build, would the expectations for 2009 have been quite as high? Did the killer kick from Henery change the landscape of the 2009 preseason?

However it happened, here we are. Instead of a predominant "Is this the Jayhawks' time?" offseason storyline, most eyes have been on the Huskers. They're back! Ndamukong Suh! Blackshirts! Domination! (Of course, the cynical Missouri fan in me says the "They're back!" storyline would have been the same if they'd gone 0-12 last year--they're always 'almost back.' But I'm turning over a new leaf and trying to leave cynicism out of this...as much as I can, anyway). Instead of continuing to slowly build the program over time, Bo Pelini is now expected to produce a Top 15-20 team and North champion in Year #2.

Without further adieu, let's dive into our two-day, far-too-detailed look at Pelini's Huskers.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3)
S&P+: #21
Scoring Margin: 460-371 (+89)
Conference Scoring Margin: 284-272 (+12)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #20 Kansas, #30 Clemson, #40 Baylor, #79 Kansas State, #82 Colorado, #101 San Jose State, #104 Iowa State, #106 Western Michigan, #110 New Mexico State
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #10 Missouri, #15 Texas Tech, #41 Virginia Tech

Nebraska faced a whopping four teams ranked #100 or lower and went just 3-4 against teams in the Top 50. Their capstone wins were at home over #20 Kansas and in Jacksonville against #30 Clemson. In their two games against the S&P+ Top 10, they were outscored 114-45. But it's all about momentum (at least as far as offseason narratives go), and Nebraska has it. They won six of their last seven, and while they didn't beat a marquee team in that time, they did take out three in the Top 40 (KU, Clemson, Baylor). While it's probably true that Henery's kick against #82 Colorado sent expectations through the stratosphere, there's no denying that Nebraska has some things going for them. The nine wins were more than most people expected for 2008 (though not me, ahem), and a lot more is expected in 2009.

Coaching

Head Coach: Bo Pelini
Record at Nebraska: 9-4 (conference: 5-3)
Career Pythagorean Record (explained further down): +1.25 wins (+1.25/year)

A former co-captain and starting free safety for Ohio State (his senior season was Kirk Herbstreit's redshirt freshman season--I point this out only because I can), Bo Pelini has pretty quickly built a solid career for himself. After bouncing around at the grad assistant level for a few years, he made the move to NFL positions coach. He started with the 49ers (DBs coach, 1994-96), then moved to the Pats (LBs, 1997-99) and Packers (LBs, 2000-02). In 2003, he broke into the college ranks by taking over as Defensive Coordinator for Frank Solich's final Nebraska team. Solich was let go, and after a year as co-coordinator at OU, he spent three seasons as DC in Baton Rouge before taking the NU job last year. That's a pretty steady progression.

So how good was Pelini as a defensive coordinator? To gauge that, we can't simply look at his defenses' stats--we also have to compare it to something of a baseline for defensive performance at the schools he coached. So for his three DC gigs, we're going to compare his defenses' performances to the performance of those schools before and after his time.

Nebraska. In 2003, Nebraska gave up 14.5 points and 297.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced an insane 3.5 turnovers per game (granted, 14 turnovers came in three games against Oklahoma State, Southern Miss and Troy, but that's still an impressive total). In the four seasons surrounding Pelini's one year in Lincoln, the Blackshirts gave up 21.9 points and 338.5 yards per game, allowed 4.7 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. Clearly Pelini's '03 unit was better than the others Solich or Bill Callahan produced around that time. (And you wonder why NU fans thought Pelini was an unbelievably great coach.)

Oklahoma. In 2004, Oklahoma gave up 16.8 points and 299.0 yards per game, allowed 4.8 yards per play, and forced 1.7 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his one year in Norman, the Sooners gave up 18.8 points and 297.6 yards per game, allowed 4.6 yards per play, and forced 2.2 turnovers per game. This was a strange situation--he was a co-coordinator, and he was replacing the head coach's brother. His 2004 defense was really no better or worse than the typical Sooner defense (they gave up a couple fewer points, more yards per play, and forced fewer turnovers). Not surprisingly, he left after one season to take over another big-time defense and remove the "Co-" from his title.

LSU. From 2005-07, LSU gave up 15.7 points and 266.7 yards per game, allowed 4.2 yards per play, and forced 1.8 turnovers per game. In the four seasons sandwiching his time there, the Bayou Bengals gave up 17.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, allowed 4.4 yards per play, and forced 1.9 turnovers per game.

Aside from the 2003 turnovers outlier (if Pelini had been there five years, you know they wouldn't have forced 3.5 turnovers per game that whole time--it would have come back down toward the 2.0 range), you do get a pretty good read of a Pelini defense. They're going to give up the expected (and respectable) number of yards, but they also seem able to make the big plays in preventing points. Whether that's just timely blitzes in the red zone or something else, preventing points clearly is a pretty good idea (brilliant analysis, I know), and Pelini's defenses generally knew how to do it.

After five seasons of being a pretty good defensive coordinator, Pelini took the Nebraska job vacated by Bill Callahan. In season #1, the Huskers managed 9 wins despite a Pythagorean projection of just 7.75 wins, so well done there too. Usually a team overachieving its projection that much probably managed to win a series of close games, but Nebraska actually went only 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, so...not sure. Really, the projections were probably crazy because they got crushed so badly by Oklahoma and Missouri and it skewed the reliability of the projection. Anyway, I'm not going to think too hard about it. We'll see how his Pythagorean record shapes up after at least a couple more years of data.

Offense

So we've talked a lot about the typical Pelini defense. What did the Pelini offense do in 2008, and what can we expect in 2009?

Overall Stats

S&P+: 119.9 (#18)
Success Rate+: 116.6 (#13)
PPP+: 124.3 (#20)

Standard Downs S&P+: 120.1 (#13)
Passing Downs S&P+: 119.1 (#25)

Redzone S&P+: 117.3 (#22)

Q1 S&P+: 123.8 (#22)
Q2 S&P+: 115.6 (#27)
Q3 S&P+: 123.9 (#17)
Q4 S&P+: 124.4 (#11)

1st Down S&P+: 128.0 (#10)
2nd Down S&P+: 111.9 (#38)
3rd Down S&P+: 123.9 (#22)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 107.1 (#50)
Rushing SR+: 104.0 (#55)
Rushing PPP+: 112.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 111.7 (#35)
Passing Downs: 84.9 (#102)

Redzone: 94.2 (#87)

Line Yards+: 96.1 (#81)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 131.3 (#10)
Passing SR+: 129.9 (#8)
Passing PPP+: 113.1 (#15)

Standard Downs: 132.9 (#6)
Passing Downs: 130.0 (#17)

Redzone: 163.8 (#4)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.9% (#40)

In all, Nebraska ended up putting together strong offensive numbers in 2008, better than some would expect. Because of Pelini's reputation and the ongoing "BLACKSHIRTS!!" narrative this offseason, it's assumed that the NU defense runs the show--not true. NU's defensive numbers were decent but far from dominant; meanwhile, they had a Top 20 offense. (Of course, this is a problem since they lost much more on offense than defense.)

NU's numbers here don't have a whole lot of crazy variation, but there is one in particular--while their Passing Downs performance was worse than Standard Downs performance across the board, they were severely lacking in terms of rushing on Passing Downs. What that says is, if they ran the ball on, say, 2nd-and-8, they were not picking up enough yards to avoid a 3rd-and-long.

Here are some other points of interest:

For the most part, their offense got better as the game progressed, from #20-30 in the first half to #10-20 in the second. They were best in the fourth quarter, and if that's because of the system, or the offensive line, or the running backs, that could mean great things for 2009. If it was more because of Joe Ganz or Nate Swift and Todd Peterson, that could be much less encouraging.
Their red zone passing was outstanding, and their red zone rushing was terrible. Strange. Though it also throws a little water on the "Quentin Castille = great short-yardage runner" theory. And again, if this was because of Ganz-to-Swift/Peterson, that could be a red flag.
Another interesting split: NU's O-line was #40 in preventing sacks (though that could have been somewhat due to Ganz's scrambling abilities) but only #81 in line yards. The 2009 O-line should be about the same as 2008, potentially a bit better, so NU's success in 2009 could hinge on whether Zac Lee is as elusive as Ganz.

Quarterback

Zac Lee is the default #1.

2008 Unit Ranking: #13 in the nation (#5 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Lee (6'2, 210, Jr.)
Latravis Washington (6'3, 225, Jr.)
Kody Spano (6'2, 215. RSFr.)

A former 4-star JUCO recruit, Lee won the battle for starting QB, in part, by sticking around. Entering the spring, Patrick Witt was seen as the slight favorite to win the starting job, by the end of the spring, he had announced that he was transferring. So that left the job to the winner of a contest between, basically, Lee and converted defender Latravis Washington. From what I read, Washington has nice arm strength and running ability (he was a QB in high school), but...well, in general you have to hope that your starting quarterback was actually playing quarterback twelve months earlier, not linebacker. So in the end, it was probably a relief that Lee won the job--he had a tremendous spring game, and while we've all come to notice how one performance in the spring game is taken more seriously than all other spring practices combined (just ask Blaine Gabbert), it does seem like he performed well enough in the spring that there is a legitimate amount of optimism in how he'll handle the job once the real season starts.

As mentioned above, the key to his success could be his elusiveness. Joe Ganz was able to extend coverage on a lot of plays by avoiding the pass rush and creating things outside the pocket. NU's offensive line was not too tremendous, and he possibly made them look better by avoiding sacks. If this is true, then Lee will need to do the same in 2009.

In the end, Lee shapes up to be anywhere between the #2 and #5 QB in the North, depending on both how he performs and how another newbie QB performs--one-time Nebraska commitment Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs

Most hope pinned on the NU offense is because of this guy.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Roy Helu, Jr. (6'0, 215, Jr.)
Quentin Castille (6'1, 235, Jr.)
Collins Okafor (6'1, 225, RSFr.)

Taking poor line yardage figures into account, NU's running backs were quite strong in 2008, and they should be even better in 2009. Marlon Lucky was the go-to guy heading into the season, but he just didn't do anything on the field to keep from losing a large percentage of his carries to Roy Helu, Jr. (being injury-prone didn't help). Using the Points Over Expected (POE) measure, Lucky's 2008 carries generated 2.7 points fewer than would have been expected against given opponents (164th among 267 eligible FCS backs). Meanwhile, Helu generated 14.9 points over expected, good for 30th in the country and 6th in the Big 12 behind Kendall Hunter (5th), Chris Brown (8th), Derrick Washington (15th), DeMarco Murray (26th), and Keith Toston (27th). The third guy in the backfield, Quentin Castille, was almost exactly average, generating 1.7 POE.

(It should be noted that Lucky was also the #13 receiving RB according to POE, 2nd in the conference behind DeMarco Murray. Helu was #53, 9th in the conference.)

In the end, Helu took 125 carries, Lucky 125, and Castille 106. Simply splitting Lucky's carries among Helu and castille could generate between 10 and 15 extra EqPts for NU in 2009. That's really not too much to ask from the two, as that would only put Helu up to about 16 carries per game and Castille 14. Honestly, I don't think much of Castille, so the more carries to Helu, the better for Nebraska. The other question, of course, is can somebody like Collins Okafor break into the rotation?

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jeremy Maclin's high school teammate, Mike McNeill

2008 Unit Ranking: #27 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Menelik Holt (6'4, 220, Sr.)
Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.)
Curenski Gilleylen (6'0, 220, So.)
Chris Brooks (6'2, 215, Sr.)
Will Henry (6'5, 215, Jr.)
Khiry Cooper (6'2, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Mike McNeill (6'4, 240, Jr.)
Dreu Young (6'4, 245, Jr.)
Ryan Hill (6'3, 250, So.)

In 2008, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson combined for 125 catches, 1,727 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the six names on the above WR depth chart combined for 57 catches, 607 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Looking at POE, Swift and Peterson were +29.5, everybody else -7.5.

In other words, the passing game could be pretty iffy in 2009. Now, certainly this receiving corps is more highly-touted from a recruiting perspective, but they have not yet produced, and considering there are two seniors and two juniors there, they've had plenty of opportunities already. Swift in partcular was quite solid, ranking 35th among 411 eligible receivers in POE, 7th in conference and ahead of Michael Crabtree (39th), Jordan Shipley (52nd), and Quan Cosby (100th).

But he's gone. The good news for Nebraska is, there are quite a few candidates for becoming Zac Lee's go-to receiver; the bad news, of course, is there's no guarantee that one will emerge. Menelik Holt has good size but was -1.8 POE (320th in the country). Niles Paul is a solid threat in kick returns but produced -5.7 POE (382nd, third-from-last in the conference ahead of just CU's Patrick Williams and ISU's Darius Darks). Curenski Gilleylen passed up a Mizzou offer to play for the Huskers but produced only 11 yards in two catches last year.

Then there's Chris Brooks, a former 4-star recruit from Hazelwood East (and Mizzou commit), ranked ahead of Chase Coffman, Brock Christopher, Kurtis Gregory, Justin Thornton, Jaron Baston, and Jairus Byrd in Rivals.com's 2005 State of MO rankings. Three seasons in Lincoln have produced three catches and 31 yards. He had himself a nice spring, even catching a touchdown pass in the Red-White Game, but...well, there isn't a very nice way to say this, but if Brooks is one of your top receivers, at this point in his career, that probably means that your receiving corps isn't very good. He's had plenty of time to distinguish himself and hasn't; and with little time on the field to date, it's not tremendously likely that his experience can lead to the latest of late-career breakthroughs...at least not much of one. Never say never, of course, but it's not likely.

The bright spot, however, comes at tight end. Every new QB can use a bailout option at the TE position (Mizzou fans are banking on Andrew Jones becoming just that for Blaine Gabbert), and junior Mike McNeill looks like a pretty nice bailout. He and Helu out of the backfield can allow the Huskers to pick up some yards while remaining conservative and letting Lee grow more confident. Jeremy Maclin's former high school teammate would have looked really good in black and gold.

Offensive Line

Jacob Hickman is one of the conference's better centers. Of course, now he's playing guard.

2008 Unit Ranking: #61 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
G Jacob Hickman (6'4, 295, Sr.)
T Mike Smith (6'6, 290, Jr.)
G Keith Williams (6'5, 320, Jr.)
T Marcel Jones (6'7, 310, So.)
C Mike Caputo (6'1, 275, So.)
G Ricky Henry (6'4, 300, Jr.)
G DJ Jones (6'5, 315, Jr.)
G Andy Christensen (6'3, 310, Sr.)
T Jaivorio Burkes (6'5, 295, Jr.)
T Brandon Thompson (6'6, 300, RSFr.)

Here's where my own stats confuse me. With good rushing stats and decent sack totals, it seems like NU would have had a pretty good line in 2008. But the line yards measure--not a perfect stat, obviously, but a pretty good one--credited most of NU's rushing yards to the backs, and it really is likely that Ganz's scrambling ability (just think of how much he was on the run against Missouri) bailed the line out of some pretty poor sack numbers. In the end, NU's line ranked poorly, below Iowa State (60th), Kent State (53rd), Southern Miss (51st) and Marshall (50th).

It appears that Bo Pelini knew that his line wasn't too hot--he did a decent amount of shuffling this spring. The result is a line that has potential quality at the guard positions but inexperience at center and shakiness on the outside. Their 61 career starts rank fifth in the conference, but solid experience on a mediocre line isn't as impressive as a smidge less experience on a really good line. With a new QB, new receivers (who may, in theory, take longer to get open), and a unit or RBs who had to create a lot on their own in 2008, the offensive line could be the linchpin of the Nebraska offense.

Summary

If you believe that NU's defense is going to be outstanding in 2009 (maybe, maybe not--we'll talk about this tomorrow), then the offense only needs to be serviceable to win the Huskers some games in the Big 12 North. By all means, there is enough talent here--particularly in Helu, McNeill, Hickman, and potentially Lee--to put some points on the board, but we'll see. The offensive line is relatively experienced but shaky, and the WR corps is the exact opposite of proven. If NU can't avoid passing downs, and if the passing threat isn't enough to prevent defenses from keying on Helu, then this unit could go downhill in a hurry. On potential, Nebraska could have the 2nd- or 3rd-best offense in the North, but some players--Holt, Paul, Jones, Caputo--will need to step up their games for that to happen.

Tomorrow: the defense.

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 17:00:05 -0000

I may have posted the BTBS 'box' yesterday, but there's still plenty to discuss. Let's look back at last week's preview and see how things shook down.

Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.

Nebraska: 39.7% success rate, 40.9% while the game was close
Missouri: 56.9% success rate, 56.3% while the game was close

So NU held Mizzou a smidge below its season success rate...but still couldn't stop the big play. Meanwhile, NU didn't have nearly enough offensive consistency.

If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.

Nebraska: 6-for-22 on passing downs. They were 5-for-11 passing (2 successful passes to Nate Swift, 2 to Todd Peterson, 1 to Menelik Holt) with 1 sack, and they were 1-for-5 rushing.

They were 2-for-4 in Q1 (that's when the two passes to Swift came), 4-for-18 the rest of the game.

Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.

Nebraska Offense

Q1: 50.0% success rate / 0.42 PPP / 0.924 S&P
Q2: 30.0% success rate / 0.18 PPP / 0.484 S&P
Q3: 37.5% success rate / 0.15 PPP / 0.522 S&P

And the game was over in Q4.

They really did gameplan pretty well, with the rollouts and such, but once Mizzou got comfortable (which didn't take long), it was over fast.

Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast.

Missouri Offense

Q1: 61.5% success rate / 0.70 PPP / 1.320 S&P (skewed by Maclin's long TD)
Q2: 50.0% success rate / 0.40 PPP / 0.903 S&P
Q3: 72.7% success rate / 1.23 PPP / 1.953 S&P

So a slight dropoff in Q2, but only to 0.903. That's still good. I do find one thing ironic, though: remember how NU's coaches bragged about the fantastic gameplan they'd put together? Well Mizzou was unbelievable in the "gameplan" quarters (Q1/Q3). That's some good coaching by Nebraska, huh?

The game could be made or broken on third downs.

Mizzou on 3rd downs: 77.8% success rate / 1.487 PPP / 2.264 S&P
Nebraska on 3rd downs: 63.2% success rate / 0.391 PPP / 1.022 S&P

Nebraska was a little too successful on 3rd downs for my taste, but while they were just barely converting (0.391 PPP), Missouri was breaking the Points Per Play chart (1.487). Again, S&P is a lot like OPS in baseball--anything over 0.900 is pretty good. A 2.264 S&P is "Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series" good.

(Correction: Barry Bonds only put up a 1.994 OPS in the 2002 World Series. My bad. The Missouri offense on third downs was better than Barry Bonds in the 2002 World Series.)

Key Players: Nebraska

Every receiver besides Nate Swift

Roy Helu Jr. (RB): 4 catches, 50% success rate, 2.80 EqPts
Ryan Hill (TE): 2 catches, 0% success rate, 0.02 EqPts
Menelik Holt: 5 catches, 80% success rate, 5.45 EqPts
Mike McNeill (TE): 2 catches, 100% success rate, 1.72 EqPts
Todd Peterson: 7 catches, 100% success rate, 2.86 EqPts
Dreu Young (TE): 1 catch, 100% success rate, 0.68 EqPts

TOTAL: 21 catches, 76.2% success rate, 13.52 EqPts

Meanwhile...

Nate Swift: 5 catches, 80% success rate, 4.40 EqPts.

Not nearly enough from him. Carl Gettis strikes again.

RB Marlon Lucky

Marlon Lucky: 14 carries, 1.61 EqPts, 0.401 S&P - WORTHLESS. I feel vindicated.

DE Zach Potter

Zach Potter: 3.5 tackles, 3.0 successful - 85.7% success rate, 0.868 defensive S&P (Defensive Success Rate - PPP = Defensive S&P). Oh yeah, and 1 helmet-to-helmet penalty worth 0.84 points.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh: 4.5 tackles, 4.0 successful - 88.9% success rate, 0.780 defensive S&P, 1 noteworthy loogie.

Both Potter and Suh played rather well, though they both made more notable contributions to the game outside of the stats. And neither came up with a sack. And it should also be mentioned that only 4.0 of their 8.0 tackles came when the game was actually close.

Key Plays: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

Derrick Washington (rushing): 14 carries, 57.1% success rate, 1.348 S&P
Derrick Washington (receiving): 2 catches, 100% success rate, 2.327 S&P

Derrick Washington (TOTAL): 16 touches, 62.5% success rate, 1.470 S&P

I'll just say this: Derrick Washington is possibly the most underrated RB in the country right now. He's putting up numbers like this on a weekly basis, he's scored 12 TDs, and he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Seriously, Chase Daniel's already the Heisman favorite at the moment, but if Washington weren't so darn proficient at getting into the endzone, Daniel might have another 5 or so TD passes (or rushes) to add to his resume!

OT's Elvis Fisher & Colin Brown

Nebraska: 0 sacks
Missouri offense w/Chase Daniel at QB: 58.7% success rate, 0.69 PPP, 1.272 S&P

Nebraska's attempts at getting past Elvis Fisher and Colin Brown: MASSIVE FAIL.

DE Stryker Sulak

Stryker Sulak: 2.5 tackles, 100% success rate, 0.966 Defensive S&P, 1 forced fumble worth 5.05 points.

Sulak brought his A-game again, but he was outplayed by his counterpart...

Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis: 4.5 tackles, 100% success rate, 0.980 S&P, 1 sack, 1.5 tackles for loss

FS William Moore

William Moore: 4.0 tackles, 0% successful, 1 TD-preventing pass break-up.

Moore's stats certainly suggest he's not 100%, but he still came up with a huge play and a couple hard hits...plus, he's the one who flushed Ganz out of the pocket, leading to Christopher's pick six.

Summary

I guess we should have known what to expect when a) Nebraska scored only 14 points in the first three quarters against San Jose State and b) Virginia Tech (which scored only 27 against Western Kentucky) put up 35 in Lincoln. In the end, it's not a 100% worthwhile experience delving into the box scores of blowouts, but I'll say that's a pretty nice problem to have.

Look for an MU-OSU BTBS Preview on Thursday, and I'm still intending to write a) an updated BTBS glossary and b) a look at the BCS statistical leaders at some point. We'll see when that happens.

Also, I haven't been doing a good job of whoring these recently, but if you're interested in catching up on my Varsity Numbers pieces at Football Outsiders, here they are:

Varsity Numbers #1: NCAA Analysis 101
Varsity Numbers #2: Six Missing Points
Varsity Numbers #3: The '+' Concept
Varsity Numbers #4: Leverage, Leverage, Leverage

Poll

Who was the statistical MVP of the Mizzou-Nebraska game?

Chase Daniel (17.96 Passing EqPts)

13 votes

Derrick Washington (13.52 Rushing & Receiving EqPts)

70 votes

Jeremy Maclin (7.45 Rushing & Receiving EqPts, tone-setting first TD, caused one massively shanked punt)

5 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (5.5 successful tackles, 79% success rate)

4 votes

Tommy "Perpetually Underrated" Chavis (4.5 successful tackles, 0.980 defensive S&P, 1 sack)

4 votes

Brock Christopher (3.5 success tackles, 1 INT for TD)

3 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

Reviewing The First 2008 Nebraska Cornhuskers Depth Chart

Jon Johnston — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:00:07 -0000

The first Bo Pelini depth chart was released today not too many surprises, but worth a discussion.

Offense:

Quarterback: 1 - Joe Ganz, 2 - Patrick Witt, 3- Zac Lee.

No surprises here, although you have to ask yourself what happens if Joe Ganz goes down with an injury. What does that do to the season?

I-Back: 1 - Marlon Lucky -or- Roy Helu -or- Quentin Castille

So there are three backs listed as co #1's. There seems to be a lot of buzz about this, and I'll be honest, I don't get it (the fuss, that is). Running backs get the holy crap beat out of them much worse than they used to, so you are not going to make it through a full season without your main guy getting banged up.

What is sad here is the name that's missing - Kenny Wilson. It's doubtful he'll play again due to his leg injury. It's easy to forget the potential that was there, but don't.

Fullback: 1 - Thomas Lawson, 2 - Justin Makovicka

No surprises, remember that while Callahan didn't use fullbacks on the run, Lawson caught three TD's last season which was as many as Nate Swift and Marlon Lucky, and more than the entire receiving corp besides Swift and Peterson.

Wide Receiver X: 1 - Nate Swift, 2 - Menelik Holt, 3 - Will Henry, 4- Chris Brooks

No surprise, although I guess I'm a little surprised that Chris Brooks is all the way down at #4.

Wide Receiver Z: 1 - Todd Peterson, 2 - Niles Paul or Curenski Gilleylen

Again, no surprise here.

Tight End: 1 - Mike McNeill, 2 - Dreu Young, 3 - Ryan Hill, 4 - Ben Cotton

Obviously Tyson Hetzer hasn't recovered enough from his spring knee injury to be listed on the roster at this point. Perhaps he'll join in later in the season. This position is more critical to offensive success than people are giving it, here's hoping they can perform well this season.

Offensive Line:

They're a unit, and we treat them like a unit.

LT: 1 - Mike Smith, 2 - Jaivorio Burkes
LG: 1 - Mike Huff, 2 - Keith Williams
C: 1 - Jacob Hickman, 2 - Mike Caputo
RG: 1 - Matt Slauson, 2 - DJ Jones
RT: 1 - Lydon Murtha, 2 - Marcel Jones

Lydon Murtha moves back to right tackle. Murtha is an enigma - the guy has the body size for a prototypical NFL left tackle, but gives that spot up to Mike Smith. Go figure. Burkes at #2 behind Mike Smith is a little surprise, but we'll see how the rotation comes out.

The key to this line is that some of these guys can move around to different positions. Slauson has played both guard and tackle, while Hickman has played guard and center. An incredibly solid group, with plenty of depth and experience.

Defense:

Nose Tackle: 1 - Ndamukong Suh, 2 - Shukree Barfield, 3 - Terrence Moore

Defensive Tackle: 1 - Ty Steinkuhler, 2 - Jared Crick

Base End: 1 - Zach Potter, 2 - Clayton Sievers

Open End: 1 - Barry Turner, 2 - Pierre Allen

No surprises here. Obviously losing Kevin Dixon hurt, but I don't see this group as thin as a lot of other people. Note that Baker Steinkuhler isn't listed - hopefully a redshirt season is in the works for him.

Linebackers:

Will Linebacker: 1 - Cody Glenn, 2 - Blake Lawrence

Mike Linebacker: 1 - Phillip Dillard, 2 - Will Compton, 3 - Colton Koehler

Buck Linebacker: 1 - Tyler Wortman, 2 - Sean Fisher

Obviously the linebacker position is of huge concern. Will Compton and Sean Fisher are both true freshmen. Dillard is a solid middle linebacker with experience, so the hope would be that Compton and Fisher aren't needed this season which will give them time to get stronger and learn. LaTravis Washington is not listed here due to injury. Nor is Nick Covey.

Is there a Husker fan who isn't cheering for Cody Glenn's position switch to work out well? Even beyond the sake of the team, you have to admire the guy for moving there. Lot of guts, love that guy.

Defensive Backfield:

Right Cornerback: 1 - Anthony West, 2 - Prince Amukamara

Left Cornerback: 1 - Armando Murillo, 2 - Eric Hagg

Strong Safety: 1 - Larry Asante, 2 - Major Culbert

Free Safety: 1 - Rickey Thenarse, 2 - Matt O'Hanlon

The starting four are a pretty decent group. What you have to ask is what happens when we move to using five or six defensive backs, ala defending Texas Tech. Amukamara has never played corner before, so the first three games may be key to getting him valuable experience. Eric Hagg and Major Culbert should be able to step into the extra roles if needed, so keep an eye on them should they get into the game against Western Michigan.

I realize I tagged everyone on the depth chart with this post, but hey it was my chance to check out our rosters, and make sure everything is okay. Corrections will be made!