SB Nation - Nate Swift

Should Shawn Watson and Barney Cotton Be Fired?

Jon Johnston — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:03:22 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

I know one of our guys is somewhere down at that end of the field.... here goes.....

Before I start, let me note that it's always an easy proposition to suggest firing people, especially when you're not the one that has to pull the trigger. If you've read my writing long enough, you know that I have a weak spot for firing people - I'm not part of the crowd that's constantly asking for someone to be shot in the head. It's too easy a solution, although I admit, a popular one.

I like the Shawn Watson's philosophy of a "multiple offense". I'm not ignorant of the fact that a powerful running attack is part of Nebraska's heritage, but the ability to shift into a spread and use the zone read and spread option plays give us a huge advantage over our opponents - we just didn't execute them well this season.

I disagree with the notion that Nebraska can't recruit skill position players that can run anything other than a power running game. If Bill Callahan could recruit decent quarterbacks (Zac Taylor, Joe Ganz) and receivers (Maurice Purify, Nate Swift), then why can't this staff?

You can write off some of the offensive problems as turnover in players, but only some. Still, the West Coast offense is largely dependent upon timing and that timing has to be developed between a quarterback and his receivers. We knew it would be tough to replace Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, and Todd Peterson, but I don't think anyone could have foreseen the difficulties Watson faced early in the season when the receivers were not performing as well as was needed. Menelik Holt started the first five games, then disappeared along with Curenski Gilleylen and Chris Brooks. Holt had 15 receptions for 175 yards, none after the Iowa State game. Brooks had 13 receptions for 177 yards, but none since Texas Tech when he had five receptions for 66 yards to lead the receivers. Gilleylen had 16 receptions for 299 yards, none after Iowa State.

They were replaced by Khiry Cooper and Brandon Kinnie. Kinnie finished the regular season with 13 receptions for 129 yards, with 12 of those receptions coming after Iowa State. Cooper's receptions were split throughout the season, as he finished with 13 receptions for 80 yards, with seven coming after Iowa State.

The only consistent receiver all season was Niles Paul and even he had problems (turnover at the goal line, Iowa State). Paul finished with 36 catches for 673 yards to lead the receivers, having six receptions against Iowa State and 13 the rest of the season.

That level of turnover doesn't allow a quarterback to develop the much heralded "chemistry" with his receivers. Granted, Lee's accuracy didn't seem to improve over the season, so you could argue it didn't make much difference as to whom he was throwing the ball.

As for Barney Cotton, the offensive line did progress somewhat throughout the season although the offensive output did not. The number of holding calls and false starts dropped as the season went on, and the line was asked to do a lot with defenses stacked against them to stop the run.

Add to that a general lack of depth. Jacob Hickman played well at center, and Ricky Henry started every game at right guard (the position that was unsettled before the season began). Marcel Jones and D.J. Jones played in rotation at right tackle while Mike Smith started every game at left tackle. Derek Meyer started when Keith Williams was injured, then Williams took over the starting left guard position for the final ten games. The loss before the season of Jaivorio Burkes at tackle and incoming freshman Brent Qvale certainly didn't help the depth issue. Off the top of my head, what we didn't see is the level of in-game rotation that we've seen in past seasons. (I"ll look into this more in the off-season.)

I suspect that most people would like to see Cotton fired because of his association with failed coaching regimes of the past (Solich at Nebraska, McCarney at ISU) rather than knowing much about offensive line coaching. In his defense, keep in mind that, other than Ricky Henry, these are still Bill Callahan's offensive linemen (In other words, Callahan's preference for size over speed still plagues the offense).

Going back to Watson, I'm not 100% sure what to think, other than he got hit with a perfect storm this season - a new starting quarterback, inconsistent receivers, and an offensive line that, well, had its problems. Add to these the fact that one quarterback left before the season started (Patrick Witt) while another was lost to injury at the start of the season (Kody Spano). Running back depth was severely hampered by dismissal (Quentin Castille) and injury (Roy Helu, Rex Burkhead).

A counter argument would point out that every team has to deal with injuries and then list all of the teams that did well despite them. For that, I have a response: Oklahoma.

The biggest problem with firing a coach, especially an offensive coordinator, is that you're going to throw away a year while the new guy implements his system. The counter argument here (I assume) is to bring in someone who runs a much simpler offense, so easy that you and I and a trained monkey can run it. Or perhaps magic happens and everyone instantaneously learns the new offense by having chips implanted in their brains or something like that. (If you're voting for a simplified offense, I vote for Texas Tech's then, because they replace quarterbacks and receivers year after year and seem to get the same fantastic results.)

So, give me your answer to the title question. Does one of these guys need to answer for this season? Or maybe both?

Five Questions With Corn Nation

TB — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:33:28 -0000

It's the Big 12 North Championship game today when K-State travels to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. To get a little more information on the Huskers from those who follow them most closely, I turned to the trio at Corn Nation for more info. Questions and answers are below.

BOTC: Roy Helu has looked a lot better in the last couple games. Is he finally healthy?

Mike: Healthier, perhaps. After the Oklahoma game, Helu talked about playing for the team instead of for himself, and while he didn't phrase it this way, he's decided to grit it out and play through the pain. If you watch him block in pass protection, it's obvious that his shoulder's no where near 100%. (Another good reason to leave a fullback and a tight end or two in on pass protection.) Helu left the field in Lawrence holding his arm again, and his arm was wrapped up in the post game press conference, so we're all hoping he didn't aggravate the issue last week.

JLew: Healthy yes? 100% no. Burkhead maybe back after a broken foot, he's been cleared to play so he may be able to take some of the load off Helu.

Corn Blight/Jon J: Something certainly changed. Bo Pelini and the rest of his staff talk about injuries the way people hide their crazy uncles, so the only real way to know someone's injured is if they're out for the season or carried off on a stretcher.

Helu is a big key to the Husker offense, although true freshman Rex Burkhead might be back for this game. He's missed several games due to a foot injury, and provided a huge lift to the offense earlier in the season.

BOTC: Last week, KU apparently unlocked some serious magic and kept the Husker d-line in check. What did they do?

Mike: Todd Reesing is the most experienced quarterback NU has faced this year, and it showed. He didn't wilt in the face of pressure. Carl Pelini dialed down the pressure as a result of some Reesing scrambles, and that limited the pressure after the first quarter. Considering that NU held KU to 0 first downs in the first quarter, I wonder if that might not have been a mistake.

JLew: NU changed the approach some, Pelini explains- "That's on me. I slowed them down. (Kansas) got out on a couple quarterback draws. I thought we could cover on the back end. I thought we needed to handle (KU quarterback Todd) Reesing with the front four, and when you're trying to handle six gaps with four guys, you got to be a little more controlled in your pass rush.

Even then KU didn't run the ball particularly well. The defense also seemed to come down after a lights out game against OU.

CB/Jon J: Kansas played a darned good game on offense. They switched between misdirection and running quarterback draws with Reesing, who did a good impersonation of his old playmaking self. The playcalling was just enough to confound the Husker defensive line.

BOTC: What has been Nebraska's biggest problem on offense this year?

Mike: I think there are two problems at the heart: (1) Injuries at I-back. Roy Helu has been banged up and Rex Burkhead has been out for over a month. Even Dontrayeveous Robinson got banged up late against Baylor. Nobody has that much depth to handle that rash of injuries and not be limited. (2) Lack of talent at wide receiver. We're learning just how good Nate Swift and Todd Peterson were last season now that they're gone. Their backups have failed miserably, and Nebraska has resorted to playing a juco transfer and a center fielder from the baseball team. Niles Paul is really the only playmaker at receiver, and while he's made some incredible plays, his two fumbles against Texas Tech and Iowa State changed those ballgames.

JLew: See Mike's answer, and I'll add finding an identity. NU started the year trying to run a West-coast spread offense, which they couldn't do against better teams with our talent at WR. Now NU seems to have settled into a heavy formation, I-Back, play-action, bootleg offense.

CB/Jon J: For me the biggest issue is the offensive line. They've played decently, but had way too many mistakes this season. Holding calls brought back a touchdown pass against Virginia Tech that would have won the game, personal foul penalties have cost the Huskers badly when deep in red zone territory, and numerous false starts. Dumb stuff, really. Most of the line is made up of Bill Callahan recruits so they're big and slow. The current coaching staff can only do so much to correct that problem.

BOTC: Pretend you're the coach for a minute (you have to wear an oversized sweatshirt and chew your gum really hard while you answer this question): Do you let Adi Kunalic kick it deep, banking on a touchback and risking that he misses and Brandon Banks gets a shot at a return, or do you squib it to keep it out of Banks' hands?

Mike: Start off trying to get it in the end zone. Then kick it out of bounds if you have to.

JLew: Hmmm predicted 10-15mph winds from the South. So half the time Adi should be able to clear the endzone. Other than that I think Pelini will challenge his special teams to stop Banks, and kick it deep.

CB/Jon J: Depends on the wind, really, what kind of weather hits Memorial Stadium Saturday night. If it's calm and the wind isn't swirling, I'm kicking it deep.

BOTC: Finally, most Husker fans are pretty confident that this game will be won if NU plays well, but what about that spread? Will the Huskers cover a 16.5-point spread?

Mike: I think they can; they've shown the ability to move the ball at times. The biggest concern to me is turnover margin; KSU is 2nd in the Big XII in this statistic, and Nebraska has had issues throughout Big XII play with ball security. If NU takes care of the ball, I think they can win this game handily. If KSU forces turnovers, all bets are off.

JLew: NU has had no turnovers in the OU and the KU games. Against Baylor Green the freshman QB had a pick 6. So the last couple of games NU has taken care of the ball pretty well. On the other hand, KSU's defense has been able to force some with some hard hits. I don't think I'd take the Huskers in this one. I wouldn't surprised if they covered, but I wouldn't bet on it.

CB/Jon J: The point spread is 16.5 points? Who the hell bets real money on this stuff, nutballs and addicts?

Thanks again to the guys from Corn Nation for answering our questions.

Nebraska's Keys To Victory Over Texas Tech

Jon Johnston — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:15:21 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Nebraska quarterback Zac Lee celebrates after throwing a 13-yard pass to wide receiver Niles Paul for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game against Missouri Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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If this game doesn't worry you at least a little, you're not paying attention. Forget that Tech is on the road. Forget that they don't have Michael Crabtree or Graham Harrell, they're still the same ol' Texas Tech that can put up yardage and points at a faster rate than nearly anyone in the nation.

Last year's Tech game was a freakazoid affair with Nebraska holding the ball for 40 minutes. The Huskers controlled the game with a ball control passing offense. Can that happen again this year? With Zac Lee as Joe Ganz, Niles Paul as Nate Swift, and a whole gob of other guys playing Todd Peterson, why not?

As much as you'd like to think Nebraska can line up in tight end heavy sets and pummel the Tech defense, it's not going to happen.

Take What You're Given

Much has been made this week about the Huskers throwing the ball so often in the rain at Missouri. Mid-week we discovered that Watson's calls were biased toward the rain, but changed to passes by Lee after reading the Missouri defense. I don't understand the angst over this, especially given the outcome of the game.

If Tech moves up to stop the run, then take what you're given and throw the ball. It would be foolhardy to run when you're outnumbered at the line of scrimmage. If that means throwing the ball 40 times, then so be it. Zac Lee has performed well at home, as has his receiving corps. There's no reason to expect that this game will be any different.

Keep in mind, it's not the Huskers who are looking for an offensive identity. It's the media that creates this "run the ball" frenzy so they can feed off it. The team is looking to win football games by whatever means they can. Keep in mind that we have one very good running back, while we have quite a number of very good receivers - Niles Paul, Mike McNeill, Curenski Gilleylen included.

If winning means Roy Helu gaining 150 yards on the ground, then yay for him. If it's Zac Lee throwing for 250 yards, then there's nothing wrong with that either.

Win First Down

This key, along with the first, are just another way of saying "ball control", and that is just another way of saying to win we need to keep Tech's offense off the field. I wouldn't expect the same level of a ball control offense we saw last season, but things will go much easier if we get solid yardage on first down.

Play selection is much easier when you're working with second or third and three as opposed to seven. Rex Burkhead will be missed because of his straight ahead tough running style, but Shawn Watson will have to discover that talent in another of his young running backs.

Eliminate Stupid

Last week, Nebraska recorded 12 penalties for 108 yards. Some of those can be written off because of the inclement conditions, but many of them were the result of poor discipline. Husker fans don't need to be reminded of the drive-killing nature of penalties.

We're midway through the season. It's time for the stupidity to end. Nebraska's offense can't afford to lose points because of it, especially not against a team that's known for rolling up yards and points like Tech.

The bottom line is this - the offense can't expect the defense to bail them out of every game this season, so stop shooting yourselves in the foot.

Control The Lines

Ndamukong Suh has played with such a fervor that it's difficult to imagine him being stopped by anyone, but in this game he'll be going up against one of the Big 12's best offensive linemen in Tech guard Brandon Carter. Let's assume that Carter is able to control Suh better than most, which means it will be time for Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, and Barry Turner to get some big plays.

The rest of Suh's counterparts will need to get pressure on Tech's quarterback, but they'll also be responsible for stopping Tech's running game, ala the 11 touchdowns on the ground alluded to earlier this week. That means controlling the gaps, standing your ground and getting an even push upfield. It does not mean exploding up the field in an all-out pass rush.

The offensive line must perform better to win this game. They'll need to pick up the short yardage situations to sustain drives. They must also be better disciplined in run blocking, not allowing linebackers to shoot through and blow up a play because someone missed an assignment.

It will be a good sign if Nebraska is able to run the ball in the middle of Tech's defense. Last week we were all about running wide. If we're going to run the ball, we need to make sure we're getting yardage in the middle as well as the edges.

Nebraska's Keys To Victory over Florida Atlantic

Jon Johnston — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:15:09 -0000

by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Ndamukong Suh, demonstrating how he can crush an opposing quarterback into a tiny little ball.

View full size photo »

Finally, the season begins tomorrow. Seems like a forever ago when we were watching Clemson get more and more frustrated as the Blackshirt defense shut down them in the second half of the Gator Bowl.

Husker players have to be anxious to pound on someone else and the Florida Atlantic Owls are a perfect opponent to start the season. They're from Florida, the hotbed of talent, and any time you can crush a Florida team it's a good thing. Forget that they burned a giant "N" to get ready for the season, and one of their players has stated that they'll win - this is normal pre-game "get yourself fired up" stuff that we make too much about.

Note that none of the keys to tomorrow's game are centered around Zac Lee. Over the season, Lee may become the playmaker Husker fans are looking for, but the only important thing for him in his first game is to run the offense and let the rest of his team carry most of the load.

Physical Dominance

It's become a mantra in the offseason - new quarterback, unproven receivers, establish the running game. The opponent is coming in with a weak defensive line, so it's a perfect opportunity to start the season establishing consistency in the running game. That starts by being physically dominant on offense with the offensive line. The unit must grow together before they go on the road to face one of the best defensive lines in the nation at Blacksburg, so they need to get started early.

Tell-tale sign - if Nebraska doesn't have at least one back over 100 yards and another close, then there'd better be a wide distribution of carries.

Discipline

Florida Atlantic can't run the ball at us, and they can't rely on a five-step drop passing game. It'd be a safe bet you're going to see a fair number of misdirection plays, screens and draws - anything to keep Nebraska's defense off-balance and guessing.

The Huskers have two redshirt freshmen starting at linebacker. Coming out in front of 80,000+ for the first time, they'll be nervous, but want to show they're capable of making plays. What they'll need to do is stay disciplined, play their assignments and let the rest take care of itself.

Discipline means being where you're supposed to be all of the time. Last season the secondary suffered frequent break downs in assignments. Anyone else get the feeling that won't be tolerated from the beginning this year?

Start the Stats Counter Early

For the past two seasons, Husker fans have feasted on offensive statistics - the yardage that Joe Ganz racked up in his relatively short time as a starter; Nate Swift breaking the all-time reception record; Nebraska being consistently in the top rank for offensive production. Those statistics were generated when the defense struggled and the offense was forced to carry the team. That should no longer be the case.

The Owls offensive line should be eaten alive by the Huskers, perhaps swallowed whole. Ndamukong Suh, Jared Crick, Pierre Allen, and Barry Turner should end up with a number of sacks and/or hurries. Both of those will lead to the key defensive statistic - turnovers.

If Nebraska is going to win the Big 12 North, turnover margin will be a key factor in their success. Taking away the ball early in the season will allow it to become second nature later in the season, against conference foes when we need it.

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers Team Capsule

Jon Johnston — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:32:52 -0000

The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Nebraska team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece in conjunction with CBS Sports.

Expect the Blackshirt defense to be much improved in Bo Pelini's season. They should carry Nebraska to a Big 12 North win this season. Photo by Dennis Hubbard

The Outlook

Anything less than winning the Big 12 North will be a disappointment. The success of the 2009 Husker offense will depend on Nebraska establishing a firm ground attack, providing time for Lee and the receiving corps to develop into a balanced attack. If the Huskers find themselves one-dimensional, they'll have to rely on their defense to carry them to the Big 12 Championship game, but the margin for error will be very thin.

Offense

In 2009, the offense begins with I-backs Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille. In 2008, Helu was bothered by a shoulder injury at the start of the season, but emerged as a star in November, rushing for 510 yards and five touchdowns in the final four games. For the season, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry, which is the highest of any returning back in the North division. Castille was the third back most of the season, but rushed for 125 yards in the Gator Bowl.

Replacing Joe Ganz at quarterback will be junior Zac Lee. Lee, who played sparingly last season, might be Nebraska's most talented quarterback since Eric Crouch. At San Francisco City College in 2006, Lee threw for over 3400 yards and 35 touchdowns. Lee is mobile as well, with 4.6 speed.

Nebraska's top returning receiver is tight end Mike McNeill, who'll probably be the best tight end in the conference not named Jermaine Gresham. Menelik Holt and Niles Paul look to be the top two wide receivers in 2009. Holt was hampered by a knee injury that caused him to miss most of four games last season. Paul's biggest contributions to date have been on kick returns, with an 85 yard touchdown return against San Jose State last season. A group of inexperienced but talented receivers will fight for playing time and to fill out the remaining positions.

Three starters return up front, including honorable mention all-Big XII center Jacob Hickman, who may move to guard this season. Juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith return to anchor the left side of the line. If Hickman moves to right guard, sophomore Mike Caputo will take over at center. Other candidates for the right side include tackle Marcel Jones and guards D.J. Jones and Ricky Henry.

Defense

The defense is lead by pre-season All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who is also a top-ten NFL draft prospect. The defense will be dependent upon Suh to make plays or occupy enough blockers to make them better. Expect sophomore Jared Crick to start alongside Suh, with redshirt freshman Baker Steinkuhler in the rotation.

Defensive end Barry Turner returns this season after breaking his leg in early 2008. Pierre Allen did an excellent job filling in his position last season. Between Suh, Crick, Turner and Allen, Nebraska's defensive line should be one of the best in the conference this season.

At linebacker, no fewer than ten players are fighting for three starting positions. Phillip Dillard returns as the most experienced of the bunch, but after a lackluster spring must fight his way back into the starting rotation. Pelini has so far refused to name starters to keep the competition going, but you could expect redshirt freshmen Will Compton and Sean Fisher to win some starts, along with sophomore Matthew May.

The secondary returns with much more depth than the previous season. Prince Amukamara and Anthony West return as starters at the corners. Anthony Blue returns after sitting out 2008 with a knee injury. Lance Thorrell should reprise his role in the dime package. Larry Asante is the top returning starter at safety, and should make the All-Big 12 list by the end of the season. Eric Hagg should keep his spot as the other starting safety, splitting time with Matt O'Hanlon. Rickey Thenarse must have a good fall camp to fight off redshirt freshmen Courtney Osborne and P.J. Smith. The defensive secondary had too many break downs last season, but that should be much improved this year.

In a single season, Bo Pelini turned around a defense that finished near the bottom of the nation in several categories, and had them playing well enough to finish as one of the top defenses in the Big 12 by season's end. With a year of understanding Pelini's system behind them, expect the Blackshirt defense to become the bright spot for Husker fans this season.

Special Teams

Alex Henery returns as one of the most accurate kickers in the nation. In 2008, Henery went 18-21 in field goals and made 56 of 57 PATs. The Huskers will have to replace holder Jake Wesch and long snapper T.J. O'Leary, who have handled those duties over the past three seasons.

Kickoff specialist Adi Kunalic returns after finishing fifth the nation in touchbacks last season, giving the Huskers a formidable weapon in the kicking game. Henery may pull double duty and handle punting duty, a task for which he was originally recruited.

Nate Swift was the team's primary punter last season and must be replaced after having moved on this season. Niles Paul showed some promise returning punts, and should be more consistent this season. Newcomers Rex Burkhead and Antonio Bell will be considered as will redshirt freshman Tim Marlowe.

Niles Paul looks likely to replay his role as a kick returner after having a decent year in 2008. Two of the top five plays last season were Paul kick returns, including a 85-yard touchdown return against San Jose State. Alfonzo Dennard was one of only three true freshman to play last season and should handle return duties again this season. Sophomore Curenski Gilleylen and newcomers Burkhead and Antonio Bell may get their chance as well.

Kickoff coverage must get better as Nebraska finished 105th in the nation in last season. Watch for Bo Pelini to include some talented newcomers to the coverage team this season as the Huskers look for every edge possible to win the Big 12 North.

Key Losses

Joe Ganz, QB - The former bench warmer that nobody believed in until Sam Keller injured his collarbone. He came in and promptly put up three straight 400 yard games and showed a gritty resolve that endeared him to Husker fans. He leaves after setting 23 school records, including season records for passing yardage.

Nate Swift, WR - Departs as the Huskers record holder for career receptions, and ranks second for yards receiving all-time. Some might consider him a "possession" receiver, but he also had decent speed. In his senior season, he ranked 2nd in the Big XII and eighth nationally in punt returns.

Todd Peterson, WR - Along with Swift, gave Joe Ganz two dependable receivers. The pair combined for 125 receptions and over 1,700 yards.

Marlon Lucky, IB - The former five-star recruit never quite lived up to the hype from his high school days, but was a versatile weapon in all facets of the passing game.

Matt Slauson, OL - The anchor of the Husker offensive line the last few years, Slauson was drafted in the 6th round by the New York Jets, where he'll be reunited with Jets offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

Lydon Murtha, OL - Murtha was an enigma for the Huskers, as he had all of the measurables to be an impressive offensive line prospect, but never developed the consistency to be that dominant lineman that some projected. The Detroit Lions were impressed enough to take him in the seventh round of the NFL draft.

Zach Potter, DE - Potter became a dominant end in his final two seasons, showing a knack for deflecting passes and kicks. Last season, he blocked three kicks and deflected two passes to Ndamukong Suh, who returned both for touchdowns.

Ty Steinkuhler, DT - Steinkuhler was a bit of an unsung hero until the Gator Bowl last season. His presence prevented offenses from double-teaming Ndamukong Suh, as Clemson quickly learned.

Armando Murillo, CB - Nebraska's lone loss in the secondary, he was the Huskers most consistent performer in the secondary.

Dan Titchener, P - Three year starter who averaged 39.9 yards per punt in his career.

Newcomers

Pelini has already shown his penchant for retaining redshirts, so you shouldn't expect to see a lot of brand new faces this year.

Baker Steinkuhler, DT - Another Steinkuhler, the departing Ty's little brother. Should see plenty of playing time this season.

Will Compton, LB - the most likely middle linebacker of the future for the Blackshirt defense.

Sean Fisher, LB - having a break-out fall camp, should be expected to get a lot of starts this season.

Rex Burkhead, RB/KR/PR/? - Burkhead was a ‘do everything' guy in in high school, playing running back, quarterback, receiver, returning punts and kicks, along with taking out the trash. Truly a versatile player, probably too skilled to remain on the sideline this season as a true freshman.

Antonio Bell & Brandon Kinnie, WR - A pair of young wide receivers that should make some contributions and break into the starting rotation by the end of the season.

Big 12 Projected Order Of Finish:

North

Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State

South
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

2009 Opponent Previews

Atlantic Owls
Arkansas St. Red Wolves
Virginia Tech Hokies
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Missouri Tigers
Texas Tech Red Raiders owa St. Cyclones
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas St. Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

What Will The 2009 Nebraska Offense Look Like?

Jon Johnston — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:15:08 -0000

More photos » by DAVE WEAVER - AP

Nebraska's Kyler Reed (25), and J.T. Kerr work on blocking drills Saturday, Aug. 8, 2009, during the first day of fall football practice camp in Lincoln, Neb. What do you want out of your tight ends - better pass receiving skills or better blocking?

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I keep trying to get a handle on what this year's Husker offense might look like. It's troublesome because the assets that we have - running backs and tight ends - lead one to believe that we should move into double tight end sets and run the ball. Putting the offense into this type of formation also requires that you have a great offensive line that can run the ball when they need to.

And that's the other quandary. I mean no offense to our current group of linemen, the fact is that Nebraska's offensive line is nowhere near the powerhouse lines we had in the Osborne era. (Well, the fact is that no one has the offensive lines that Osborne had, largely because the defensive players have gotten that much better just like the six million dollar man - stronger and faster.)

Barney Cotton is still looking for someone to fill the right guard position, and losing both Lydon Murtha and Jaivorio Burkes at the right tackle position leaves that right side suspect. It doesn't give much confidence that we can rely on a tight set-based run game, but then there are the tight ends, Mike McNeill, Dreu Young, Ben Cotton and Kyler Reed. Surely there's a boost of confidence with such good depth and athleticism. Maybe get the running game going and then play-action to them like in the old days. McNeill and Reed have the speed to get behind defenses, while Young and Cotton have the size and strength to muscle up for the ball.

That's it, right? That's the offense we can expect to see. Right? Right?

Unfortunately, tight sets are diametrically opposed to the one theme that's made offenses in the Big 12 as explosive as they are right now - the spread formations. Regardless of the offensive philosophy - spread to run or pass - it seems that an offense must incorporate some elements of the spread to be successful.

If we spread to pass, we'll have to find more than one playmaker amongst our group of receivers. If we spread to run, will Shawn Watson allow Zac Lee to keep the ball knowing full well that if Lee is injured the next two quarterbacks have never taken a snap in a college game?

One of last year's bread and butter plays was the wide receiver screen because Todd Peterson and Nate Swift complemented each other so well. With both of them gone, will we see much of the play this season? Can Menelik Holt and Niles Paul complement each other in the same way?

I'm curious as to what other Husker fans have to say about our offense this season. What will this year's offense look like? What do you think will work? What will be the bread and butter plays off which we feast?

So many questions. Husker football fans are the best football geeks I know, so what say ye?

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Nebraska Cornhuskers

Seth C — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:00:10 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Cornhuskers are in year two of the Bo Pelini experience and from all accounts, Nebraska appears to be headed on the right path. Most are picking Nebraska to win the Big 12 North, which would be an impressive feat for just about anyone in their second year rebuilding a program. I can't say that I followed the Nebraska program as close as others, but from all accounts, Bill Callahan left the Nebraska program in shambles and Pelini has done an excellent job of getting back to "Nebraska football" which I think is great for the Big 12.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at Nebraska.

General Information

Opponent	University of Nebraska
Nickname	Cornhuskers
Location	Lincoln, NB
Enrollment	17,371 (Undergraduates)
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Bo Pelini
2008 Record	9-4 (5-3)
Starters Returning/Lost	13/9
Blogs	Corn Nation Big Red Network Double Extra Point
Links	2009 Roster 2009 Spring Fan Guide

Statistics


Statistic	Nebraska	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	281.00 (15)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	169.77 (37)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	450.77 (12)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	35.38 (17)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	154.46 (15)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	1.62 (43)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	233.38 (89)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	116.46 (21)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	349.85 (55)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	28.54 (80)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	133.95 (82)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	2.69 (14)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	6.31 (40)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	-0.85 (107)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Roy Helu, Jr. (125 / 803 yds / 7 TD)
Passing	Zac Lee (1-2 / 5 yds / 0 TD / 0 Int)
Receiving	Mike McNeill (632 rec. / 442 yds / 6 TD)
Tackles	Ndamukong Suh (76)
Sacks	Ndamukong Suh (7.5)
Interceptions	Ndamukong Suh and Anthony West(2)

A Few Things

Quarterbacking: It's not a stretch to say that there's not a ton of experience at the quarterback position. It appears that Zac Lee is going to be the starting in 2009 and I think it's safe to say that two passes does not constitute a lot of time on the field. That certainly doesn't mean that Lee can't play, but rather, Nebraska is one of a few Big 12 North teams (Missouri and Kansas State off the top of my head) replacing a quarterback this year. Lee was pretty good in the Nebraska spring game, and I'd be willing to bet that NU is going to take advantage of the short to intermediate passes, until Lee gets fully acclimated.
Suh Does It All: There's a reason that Ndamukong Suh was voted as the preseason defensive player of the year. When you lead your team in almost every statistical category, you're doing pretty good. The guy is flat-out dominant, and although the interior of the Texas Tech line generally does a pretty good job, Suh is going to be the player to watch for in in the 2009 game.
Finding Receivers: Nebraksa also faces the task of replacing their top two receivers from last year in Nate Swift (63 / 941 / 10 TD) and Todd Peterson (62 / 786 / 4). That's quite a bit of production to replace and I thought they were perfect receivers for Nebraska's passing offense in that they were tall, lanky guys that were all about keeping the chains moving. The 14 touchdowns are going to be difficult to replace, and NU's biggest returning receiver is TE Mike McNeill, who may is certainly one of the best tight ends in the Big 12.
I Think Nebraska is Just Fine at Running Back: Nebraska loses Marlon Lucky, who rushed for 517 yards and 7 touchdowns, but I don't think there's much to be concerned about as returning rusher Roy Helu, Jr. (839 yds; 7 TD) and Quentin Castille (467 yds; 6 TD) represents a formidable 1-2 punch. Castille looks to have some fairly serious break away speed as he averaged over 4 yards a carry, but in games where Castille had some opportunity, he produced, including games of 125 yards against Clemson.
Surprising TO Margin: I never would have guessed that Nebraska was this deficient in the turnover category, 107th in the nation. I would guess that this is something that's going to change this year. The surprising statistic is that the Cornhuskers dropped 17 fumbles on the carpet in 2008, which is a ton. I can't imagine that this trend will continue in 2009, and although Ganz threw 11 interceptions, I don't think he was the problem.
Replacing LB's: It doesn't take a seasoned blogger to notice that Nebraska has over twenty linebackers on their opening roster. That's just crazy. It appears that Nebraska will be replacing some depth at linebacker, but when you have over twenty possible replacements, I don't think that finding candidates will prove to be that difficult. Besides, for a team that was 21st in rush defense, this is likely to be an area where Nebraska will be just fine.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Nebraska Cornhuskers?

1

19 votes

2

45 votes

3

107 votes

4

161 votes

5

139 votes

471 votes | Poll has closed

Will Anyone Win the Big 12 North This Season?

TB — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:00:11 -0000

In case anyone was confused, of course the headline comprising the title of this post is a rhetorical question. No matter how bad the North champion is in comparison to the South champion, someone will be sent to Dallas to meet the winner (or winner*) of the South division.

That said, the Big 12 North may be as wide-open as it has ever been this season. It may be as bad as it's ever been, perhaps rivaling 2004, but that's another story for another day. With players reporting for fall camp and practice beginning this week, the question on everyone's mind is, of course: Who is going to win the North? Yesterday, I listened to Kevin Keitzman and Jack Harry, with nominal input from Danny Clinkscale, discuss this question at length on 810 WHB's Between the Lines.

Several teams can claim a legitimate shot at winning the North this season. Nebraska fans consider winning anything and everything associated with football their God-given birthright, so of course they expect to win the division this year. Down the river in Lawrence, KU has an entire advertising campaign titled "History Awaits." This would be an accurate slogan if the beaks were to win the division, as they remain grouped with Iowa State as the only two programs who have never won a single North crown. Missouri has won two straight North titles and rightly feels a bit slighted when relegated the status of afterthought in discussing the North. Out in Boulder, Dan Hawkins has tried to clarify his "10 wins and no excuses" comment, but there's still a feeling that the Buffs are a wildcard in the North this season.

When I initially considered this question sometime last spring, my knee-jerk reaction was that the North was probably Nebraska's for the taking this season. That sentiment may have arisen as much from my desire to see anyone other than KU win the North as my belief that Nebraska really was going to be a good team. But the more I thought about it, the more I could make an argument for, as well as against, any of the contenders.

My initial belief in Nebraska was based on the fact that some solid defensive playmakers like Ndamukong Suh and Barry Turner return for the (sort of) Big Red. Additionally, I figured that their main competition, KU, would probably wilt again under the weight of a crushing conference schedule against the South. However, further research indicated that the schedule argument could be made against Nebraska, too. The Huskers get the pleasure of trips to Lubbock and Waco, not to mention a visit from Oklahoma. That's not exactly the UT/OU/TTU gauntlet that faces KU, but it looks to me like a recipe for, at best, a 1-2 stretch against the South. Hell, if Robert Griffin and his cast of characters in Waco are as improved as their victory-hungry fans think they are, the trip to Waco is no sure thing, either.

In addition to the scheduling component, I had to consider the riotously funny exchange between Nebraska blogs and Missouri correspondent Mike DeArmond of the KC Star, and an insightful comment made to me last week by Bill C. of Rock M Nation. One of the big knocks against Missouri is that they lost their quarterback and two playmakers in WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman. Of course, Nebraska didn't face such similar losses. Except for losing QB Joe Ganz and WRs Nate Swift and Todd Peterson. Considering that Missouri was a demonstrably better football team than Nebraska the last two years, and has been on at least equal footing since about 2003, you can't simply eliminate Mizzou and elevate Nebraska on those grounds. Thus, my belief in Nebraska started to fade.

Onward, then, to the other fashionable preseason pick: KU. The beaks didn't face the loss of skill-position players like NU and Mizzou, as they return ~~Sodd~~ Todd Reesing at QB, Jake Sharp at RB, and Dezmon Briscoe at WR (at least as long as KU's crackerjack academic support staff makes sure he actually shows up at his classes this summer and fall). However, the beaks did face substantial losses on the offensive line -- which really wasn't much of a strength last season anyway -- and at linebacker, where all three starters from last season graduated. On top of that, everyone knows about the southern gauntlet KU faces this season, with trips to Austin and Lubbock and what is sure to be a pleasant visit to Lawrence from the Sooners. On top of that, KU faces Mizzou on a neutral field and gets to go to Boulder and visit a Colorado team it didn't exactly beat convincingly last season.

On Between the Lines yesterday, Keitzman came to the conclusion that the real wildcard in the North this season is Colorado, and I agree. If last season was an injury-addled aberration for the Buffs, they could be a contender in the North this season. Phil Steele agrees with that sentiment, and I'll generally follow Steele before I'll follow most partisans or regular journalists. But again, there's someting unsettling about relying on Cody Hawkins and Tyler Hansen at QB, and outside of the running back tandem of Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart, there aren't a whole lot of playmakers on offense. And that's to say nothing of the decimated defensive line.

Finally, that brings us to Mizzou. I'm sure some of you think that, because I'm discussing them last, this is the team I've picked to win the North. Not so, my friends. I can't pick a team that lost so much firepower from the last few seasons and that will be featuring 25-30 freshmen and sophomores in the two-deep to win the division. However, Gary Pinkel and the Tigers have a few things going for them that the other North schools don't. First, they're in a relatively stable situation as compared to the other divisional contenders, and they've been in that relatively stable condition at a higher level than the other divisional contenders. Yes, they lost their coordinators, and that's always a concern. However, they promoted from within and, by doing so probably have a better chance of maintaining continuity. Second, their recruiting has been mostly on par with that of the rest of the Big 12 North the last few seasons. Couple that with the fact that Missouri has been getting better production out of the players they've recruited, and you can't write the Tigers off just like that. On the flip side, the schedule isn't especially favorable, as Mizzou faces trips to Boulder and Manhattan and a neutral-site game with KU. Getting Nebraska at home is an obvious bonus.

You may have wondered why I didn't talk about K-State, given that this is a K-State site and I've already expressed my inability to control my inner-irrational fandom about the upcoming season. The most optimistic part of me does see a scenario where, if everything breaks in our favor and the new coaching staff gets this team together early, we could ~~surprise shock~~ flabbergast the world and win the North this season. Of course, that's if everything goes right, and experience tells us that it's the rare situation in life where literally everything falls one's way. As you'll see later this week or next week when we post our projections for Bill Snyder's first year in the second go-round, none of us are predicting a division title for the Cats.

Anyway, my conclusion is that I really don't have a damn clue who is going to win the North this season. It's entirely possible that we may have our second season in a row in which a three-way tiebreaker decides a division champion, because I could see Nebraska, KU and Mizzou/Colorado all going 5-3.

I will, however, almost guarantee that there'll be at least one really big surprise in how the North turns out this season. Maybe Nebraska will be a juggernaut. Or maybe they'll realize how much they miss Ganz/Swift/Peterson and Bo Pelini will be on the hot seat after a disappointing season. Maybe Blaine Gabbert will be as good as advertised and Mizzou will roll to a third-straight division crown. Or maybe he'll endure first-year struggles, they'll have no decent replacement for Maclin/Coffman, and the defense will continue to suck (outside Sean Weatherspoon) and the Tigers will have their worst conference season in several years. Maybe KU will collapse under the weight of its own schedule and go 3-5 (we could only be so lucky). Maybe Colorado has its breakout season. Maybe everything breaks in K-State's favor and we're planning a surprise trip to Dallas this fall. Maybe Iowa State...never mind.

Best Tight Ends in Husker Football History - Junior Miller, Johnny Mitchell, Matt Herian.... Mike McNeill?

Jon Johnston — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 11:00:12 -0000

In 2008, Mike McNeill set a Nebraska single season reception record as a tight end with 32 receptions. He averaged 13.8 yards per catch and finished the season with 442 yards and six touchdowns, one touchdown reception shy of the single-season tight end record held by Junior Miller (1979), Johnny Mitchell (1990) and Gerald Armstrong (1992).

McNeill finished 2008 third in receptions behind Nate Swift and Todd Peterson. He enters his junior year as the top returning receiver and with 33 career receptions is just past half way to Matt Herian's career reception record for tight ends at 65.

McNeill has the potential to be the best one of the best tight ends in school history, so I thought it'd be interesing to see how McNeill's career to this point compares to Nebraska's other great tight ends.

Junior Miller

Junior Miller played from 1977-1979 and is regarded as the best tight end in school history. When he finished his Husker career he held every receiving record for a tight end. Miller was first team All-Big 8 in 1978 and 1979 and was selected as a consensus All-American in 1979. He was also selected as the tight end on the Husker All-Century team that was put together through an online poll in 1999.

Miller was a dominating blocker (otherwise he wouldn't have been on the field in Tom Osborne's offense) and he possessed the speed needed to get behind the defense in the play-action passing game. His speed and playmaking ability are evident in the clips shown here.

(Clips were taken from "Greatest Plays of the of the 20th Century" by bestofbigred.com. "Greatest Plays" is a two DVD set consisting of four hours of plays. Pretty cool, especially for remembering all those plays from stars throughout Husker history. Clips require the Quicktime plug in.)

Miller represented the ultimate vision of a Husker tight end. As you watched the game, you knew the play-action play would come sooner or later - the fake into the line and the ball flying over the defense to a tight end running toward the end zone. There was something so beautiful about the anticipation of the ball in the air on those plays. Part of that beauty was that the defense knew the play would come sooner or later, but when it came it was set up so well there was little they could do to stop it. It was a back-breaking play for many teams.

Miller's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
1977	5	79	15.8	0
1978	33	609	18.5	6
1979	23	435	18.9	7
Career	61	1123	18.4	13

Note that Miller had 33 receptions in 1978, which means that McNeill's 32-catch 2008 season should haven't broken the single-season reception record, yet McNeill's reception record is recognized. Also note that the 2007 media guide shows a total of 55 career catches for Miller, but he had a total of 61 receptions. The discrepancies are because the NCAA did not include bowl games in statistics from 1946 to 2001. This was changed in 2002, largely because it should have been changed, but it's a great example of how difficult it is to compare players between eras.

Johnny Mitchell

You could make case that Johnny Mitchell was the best tight end to ever play for the Huskers. Mitchell had a career-high 31 receptions in 1991. For those who never saw Mitchell play - think of him as Jeremy Shockey, complete with the talent and the big mouth. He never stopped talking, but like Shockey, if you threw the ball anywhere near him, he could make the reception as is evident in the two clips of him shown here.

The second clip shows a Mitchell catch during the ‘91 Oklahoma game. The game began as a nightmare, with the Huskers giving the Sooner three fumbles and a 14-0 lead early in the game. The Huskers fought back - and I remember the catch. It came on a crucial third and nine play. Mitchell came up with that reception to keep the drive alive. He was amazing and finished the game with seven receptions for 137 yards.

Unfortunately, Mitchell is largely forgotten by Husker fans - he doesn't even rank a bio entry at Huskers.com. This is because Mitchell left Nebraska after his sophomore season to enter the NFL draft, where he was selected in the first round as the 17th overall pick by the New York Jets. My heart broke when I saw his name appear on the NFL draft ticker. I couldn't believe it - I was depressed for a week.

Mitchell's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
1990	11	282	25.6	7
1991	31	534	17.2	5
Career	42	816	19.4	12

Matt Herian

Matt Herian holds the tight end career reception record with 65 catches, playing from 2002-2006. Herian was a perfect fit as a tight end in Bill Callahan's West Coast offense, and played in 12 games as a true freshman. He had an amazing season, averaging 43 yards per catch, with four of his seven receptions going for touchdowns.

In his sophomore season, he averaged 22 yards per catch and gained first-team All-Big 12 recognition as he finished as the top Husker receiver with 484 yards and 22 receptions. In 2004, his junior season, Herian was on his way to setting single-season records when he suffered a severe broken leg against Missouri, ending his season. At the time of his injury, Herian was the leading receiver with 24 receptions, 308 yards and three touchdowns. Despite missing nearly half of the conference games, he gained honors as second-team All Big 12.

Herian sat out 2005, but returned to the field in 2006, picking up 12 receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was unable to regain his former form and his injury ended up destroying his chance as a potential NFL first-round draft pick. Despite the injury, Herian remains one of the best tight ends in Husker history.

Herian's Statistics

Year	Receptions	Yards	Average	TDs
2002	7	301	43	4
2003	22	484	22	3
2004	24	308	12.8	3
2005 - RedShirt	-	-	-	-
2006	12	150	12.5	2
Career	65	1243	19.1	12

Today's Tight End

Tthe offense has changed a lot since Osborne's teams overpowered their opponents on the ground and then used play-action to break their hearts through the air. Despite those changes the attributes that made Junior Miller a great tight end are the same that are required of Mike McNeill should he ascend to Miller's level.

McNeill has displayed playmaking abilities in the passing game. Much like Miller and Herian, McNeill has shown the speed needed to get behind the defense and come up with big plays in the process. In order to duplicate his success in 2008, he will have to display Mitchell's ability to catch the ball in traffic as defenses will be watching out for him much more this coming season. He must develop further as a dominating blocker as the Huskers must have a good run game in order to achieve offensive balance.

As Nebraska's top returning receiver, big things are expected of McNeill this coming season. If he can deliver, he takes another step towards being one of the best tight ends in Husker history.

Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:00:11 -0000

Yesterday: The Offense

Before we get to the defense, an aside.

I'm in an interesting position here. Nebraska is absolutely in the North's top tier of teams (as has been covered previously, there appears to be a rather large "proven talent" divide between KU/NU/MU and KSU/ISU/CU), and if they can win in Lawrence or Columbia (or maybe even if they can't), they can take the North. As you'll read below, the defense should be incrementally better while the offense could be incrementally worse, and while there are few true stars (Ndamukong Suh, Roy Helu, maybe Mike McNeill or a defensive end), there is decent experience at RB, DL, and DB. And Bo Pelini certainly acquitted himself relatively well in year #1.

As I've mentioned previously, my problem comes with expectations and with the casual nature that national-level analysts continue to just assume that Nebraska is now "back" despite little evidence to support that. Since making the national title game in 2001, Nebraska has gone just 28-28 in conference with a point differential of -68. As means of comparison, here are the North standings in that time frame:

Big 12 North Standings, 2002-08
Team	Record	Pt. Diff
Missouri	29-27	+235
Nebraska	28-28	-68
Colorado	27-29	-104
Kansas State	25-31	+189
Kansas	22-34	-297
Iowa State	15-41	-718

(Yes, that's right--ONE North team is over .500 combined in the last seven seasons--barely--and the North is, as a whole, 44 games under .500 in that span. Granted, Iowa State is responsible for 26 of those games, but...well...Baylor and their 10-46 record still reside in the South, and the division has still managed to be 44 games over .500. Yikes.)

Anyway, the frustration here lies in the fact that, every year we get to hear about Nebraska being "back" and Colorado being a "sleeper," and yet Missouri, who has been a smidge better than both of them over a 7-year (not just 2-year) span, is pronounced dead at the first possible moment. Just odd. But the good news is, as always, this is the offseason. The real season will give us all the answers we're arguing about or getting annoyed about at the moment.

/aside

Anyhoo, time to talk defense.

Nebraska pulled off an interesting feat in 2008. While winning six of seven games to end the season, they gave up 29.1 points per game in that span (23.7 in the wins), and yet the basis for most of their North title predictions this offseason come from how good the defense is going to be. They gave up 35 points to Virginia Tech, who had the #79 offense in the country (according to S&P+). They gave up 52 to Missouri and 62 to Oklahoma...37 to Texas Tech (not bad, actually)...35 to Kansas...28 to Kansas State...an egregious 31 to Colorado (S&P+ rank: 114th)...and yet the defense is going to carry them to the North title? Never mind how disrespectful that is for Kansas (and to a lesser extent, Missouri) fans to hear...how disrespectful is that to Joe Ganz? Nate Swift? Roy Helu Jr.? These were the guys who, along with Ndamukong Suh's big plays, carried the Huskers to a strong 2008 finish.

Now, before I go any further, make no mistake: the Nebraska defense has probably the best shot at being the North's best D in the fall. The point is, it's not going to be so good that they will get by Kansas and Missouri (both on the road) simply on the heels of the dominant Blackshirts. They're not going to be that dominant. In going for only their second North title since Eric Crouch was running the show, the onus will be on not only Zac Lee and an unproven receiving corps, but also a decent-not-great defense, which alternates between experienced guys with low ceilings and inexperienced, highly-touted players. Maybe Bo Pelini will push all the right buttons, but we shouldn't assume it will happen.

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 108.9 (#41)
Success Rate+: 111.9 (#23)
PPP+: 105.7 (#53)

Standard Downs S&P+: 103.9 (#51)
Passing Downs S&P+: 114.0 (#31)

Redzone S&P+: 114.4 (#23)

Q1 S&P+: 95.5 (#75)
Q2 S&P+: 121.2 (#22)
Q3 S&P+: 82.7 (#105)
Q4 S&P+: 144.3 (#2)

1st Down S&P+: 96.8 (#71)
2nd Down S&P+: 120.6 (#17)
3rd Down S&P+: 115.9 (#32)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 102.0 (#60)
Rushing SR+: 104.4 (#47)
Rushing PPP+: 98.9 (#65)

Standard Downs: 91.5 (#86)
Passing Downs: 138.5 (#15)

Redzone: 96.4 (#74)

Line Yards+: 103.4 (#48)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 112.2 (#28)
Passing SR+: 118.0 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 107.1 (#50)

Standard Downs: 113.1 (#39)
Passing Downs: 105.4 (#51)

Redzone: 141.3 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 8.6% (#9)

As a whole, Nebraska had a pretty efficient defense in 2008, but they struggled with the big play. Their success rates were quite solid, but their PPP+ numbers were lacking. They knew how to leverage an offense into bad situations (15th in Passing Downs Rushing), but they ended up occasionally letting teams off the hook (51st in Passing Downs Passing).

Other items of note:

Thanks in part to a very strong Adjusted Sack Rate, Nebraska's strength was in defending the pass. Again, they weren't tremendous from a PPP+ perspective, but their success rates were good. As I gather more data, it will be interesting to see which one is easier to improve with experience and better execution--success rates or PPP.
Strangely, as with their offense, their redzone rushing defense was awful, but their redzone pass defense was great. You figure it out; I can't.
While they did indeed have a strong sack rate, what's with the line yardage? It seems they were good at attacking and speed, but they couldn't avoid being pushed around (or, they attacked too much, and it was easy to use their leverage against them to create running lanes?).
Bad in Q1, good in Q2. Atrocious in Q3, outstanding in Q4. Again, you figure it out.
They were mediocre on first downs but quite strong on second downs...and decent-not-great on third downs. This coincides with what was mentioned above--they were good at making a bad offensive situation worse, but they let teams off the hook a bit.

Through all of this info, something else interesting emerges. For all the seemingly-justifiable hype generated by NU's D-line, it was the Huskers' worst-ranked unit in 2008. It was a decent #42, while the linebackers were #34 and the high-efficiency-too-many-big-plays secondary was #31 (at least partially because they played against so many great passing offenses, I assume). Kind of an identity crisis here.

But regardless of the rankings, it appears that the D-line and secondary could be better, while...honestly, I have no idea what to make of the LBs.

Defensive Line

Pierre Allen is overshadowed but solid.

2008 Unit Ranking: #42 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DT Ndamukong Suh (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DE Pierre Allen (6'5, 265, Jr.)
DE Barry Turner (6'3, 265, Sr.)
DT Baker Steinkuhler (6'6, 295, RSFr.)
DT Terrence Moore (6'3, 285, So.)
DE Josh Williams (6'4, 245, RSFr.)
DE Cameron Meredith (6'4, 260, RSFr.)

While nobody is going to mistake this unit for that of Oklahoma, this is clearly the most proven defensive line in the Big 12 North, at least in terms of the pass rush. Ndamukong Suh has slowly morphed from inconsistent playmaker to every-down dominant (he led Nebraska in tackles last season, as a defensive tackle, and posted 19 TFLs and two huge pick sixes), while Baker Steinkuhler, if he can gain the form of a 5-star athlete quickly, could make teams pay for doubling Suh. Meanwhile, on the outside, Pierre Allen posted 10.0 TFLs of his own last year, and Barry Turner might be able to make some waves after following up a disappointing 2007 season (he was outstanding as a freshman and sophomore) with a 2008 broken leg that earned him a medical hardship.

They were great at attacking in 2008, but it was possible to push them around a bit. Bo Pelini's defense has the reputation for attacking and blitzing a lot, but the strength of the attack is limited if you struggle against the run. Derrick Washington put up 139 yards and two touchdowns against them, Tech's Baron Batch went for 97 yards on just 10 carries, and Robert Griffin posted 121 yards. In all, NU's rush defense (#60) wasn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't great. Clearly that will need to improve considerably if Nebraska is to assume a spot in the Top 25 as they are now predicted to do.

Outside of Suh, Allen, and Turner, the defensive line is thin and inexperienced, but, well, that won't matter if the starters don't get hurt. Suh is clearly a force (though he has yet to make serious noise against Missouri, knock on wood), and Allen and Turner could make for a strong pair of rush ends.

Linebackers

Missouri fans probably know the name of Will Compton pretty well already.

2008 Unit Ranking: #34 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Phillip Dillard (6'1, 240, Sr.)
Blake Lawrence (6'3, 220, Jr.)
Will Compton (6'2, 220, RSFr.)
Sean Fisher (6'6, 230, RSFr.)
Mathew May (6'1, 210, So.)
Matt Holt (6'0, 200, So.)

So...what do you actually do with this unit? You've got 27th-year senior Phil Dillard, who has made 75 tackles in two years and almost no plays. You've got former 4-star stud Blake Lawrence, who has made 23 tackles in 15 games his first two seasons and made exactly one big play: an interception in 2008. You've got new 4-star stud Will Compton, whose biggest contribution thus far in his career was to assistant coach Mike Ekeler's arm but is expected to tear things up sooner than later...and then you've got a bunch of other youngsters. In limited action, Mathew May locked down a nice TFL, forced fumble, and fumble recovery, so he may hold some potential. Same with Matt Holt, who made 14 tackles in nine games (and one start).

It's unclear how much potential this relatively young unit of LBs has, and how quickly they can be expected to fulfill said potential. Clearly, the Huskers have a lot of hope in Compton, but...well, he's not any more highly-touted than Lawrence was, and Lawrence hasn't done anything of note yet. There's something to be said for the fact that the Husker D is now in its second year under Pelini, and knowledge of the scheme and higher levels of intuition will make things better. And there's also this: the Huskers had a respectable, 34th-ranked LB corps in 2008 despite the fact that there really wasn't a big-time playmaker among Dillard, Lawrence, and departed seniors Cody Glenn and Tyler Wortman. Pelini clearly knows LBs, and even if none of these guys are All-Conference caliber, this unit at least won't be a liability.

Secondary

Larry Asante...starting safety (I have nothing in particular to say about him...he's solid)

2008 Unit Ranking: #31 in the nation (#8 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
S Larry Asante (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Anthony West (6'0, 205, Jr.)
S Matt O'Hanlon (5'11, 200, Sr.)
CB Prince Amukamara (6'1, 200, Jr.)
S Ricky Thenarse (6'0, 205, Sr.)
CB Alfonzo Dennard (5'10, 190, So.)
CB Anthony Blue (5'10, 185, So.)
S Eric Hagg (6'2, 205, Jr.)

The secondary is as experienced as the LB corps is inexperienced, but there doesn't appear to be as much upside. Again, they gave up a few too many big plays, but I guess that is to be expected against the offenses they faced. They posted good success rate numbers, and that helped the pass defense a decent amount. Safeties Larry Asante, Matt O'Hanlon, and Ricky Thenarse are veterans, and that's never a bad thing for your last line of defense. But they also combined for only 10 TFLs and 3 INTs. Thenarse seemed to be the biggest offender in terms of giving up the big play (at least in games I watched), but he was most capable of making some plays himself.

Meanwhile, the cornerback position seems to have more potential overall--Anthony West ended up having himself a solid sophomore season, breaking up nine passes and picking two more off. (As means of comparison, Castine Bridges had seven pass breakups from the CB position, Carl Gettis six and Kevin Rutland five.) Prince Amukamara showed some potential as well. In all, NU's secondary was their highest-ranked unit in 2008, and gauging experience levels (and strength of schedule), you can expect those numbers to be maintained in 2009.

Special Teams

2008 Unit Ranking: #106 Net Punting, #21 Punt Returns, #48 Kickoff Returns

Projected Starters
K Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.) - 56-57 PAT, 18-21 FGs
P Alex Henery (6'2, 175, Jr.)
KR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 41 Returns, 23.6 Avg, 1 TD
PR Niles Paul (6'1, 215, Jr.) - 8 Returns, 10.0 Avg

Nebraska special teams in 2009 were pretty hit-or-miss. Alex Henery was an outstanding kicker--it's hard to overstate how clutch it is to beat a main rival (Colorado) with a 57-yard field goal with two minutes remaining. In all, he made 18 of 21 FGs, and he has by far the most proven leg in the Big 12 North. He will also likely be trusted to assume punting duties in 2009--NU was pretty weak here last year, and while it's never a given that a good kicker will be a good punter, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

On the returns side of things, it looks right now as if Niles Paul will be the man. He was solid in kickoff returns, scoring a clutch return touchdown in the fourth quarter against San Jose State, right after SJSU had closed NU's lead to 14-12. Take that return out of the equation, and he still averaged 22.1 yards per return, which would have been better than average. Nate Swift was the main man in punt returns last year, but Paul returned a handful and did fine with them.

Really, if punting isn't a liability, the special teams unit could be a major asset for Nebraska in close games, particularly in terms of kicking. Henery really is a stud.

Summary

Iffy offense, solid defense, solid special teams. In a division without a breakaway favorite, Nebraska has as good a chance as anybody of coming away the winner (though playing in both Lawrence and Columbia won't help their cause).

We'll take a look at projections on Friday, but for now we'll just summarize by saying that while NU's defense could be solid, I think they're at least a year away from having rock-solid personnel at linebacker, but they'll be taking a step backwards on the defensive line and in the secondary next year. It might take a little while for all the pieces to truly come together for Pelini's defense, but he's got a good defensive mind obviously, and because of that and decent personnel, they'll certainly be in the title hunt this year. I'm just not giving them anything yet.

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Projections on Friday.