SB Nation - Dan Titchener

SB Nation 2009 Big 12 Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers Team Capsule

Jon Johnston — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:32:52 -0000

The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Nebraska team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece in conjunction with CBS Sports.

Expect the Blackshirt defense to be much improved in Bo Pelini's season. They should carry Nebraska to a Big 12 North win this season. Photo by Dennis Hubbard

The Outlook

Anything less than winning the Big 12 North will be a disappointment. The success of the 2009 Husker offense will depend on Nebraska establishing a firm ground attack, providing time for Lee and the receiving corps to develop into a balanced attack. If the Huskers find themselves one-dimensional, they'll have to rely on their defense to carry them to the Big 12 Championship game, but the margin for error will be very thin.

Offense

In 2009, the offense begins with I-backs Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille. In 2008, Helu was bothered by a shoulder injury at the start of the season, but emerged as a star in November, rushing for 510 yards and five touchdowns in the final four games. For the season, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry, which is the highest of any returning back in the North division. Castille was the third back most of the season, but rushed for 125 yards in the Gator Bowl.

Replacing Joe Ganz at quarterback will be junior Zac Lee. Lee, who played sparingly last season, might be Nebraska's most talented quarterback since Eric Crouch. At San Francisco City College in 2006, Lee threw for over 3400 yards and 35 touchdowns. Lee is mobile as well, with 4.6 speed.

Nebraska's top returning receiver is tight end Mike McNeill, who'll probably be the best tight end in the conference not named Jermaine Gresham. Menelik Holt and Niles Paul look to be the top two wide receivers in 2009. Holt was hampered by a knee injury that caused him to miss most of four games last season. Paul's biggest contributions to date have been on kick returns, with an 85 yard touchdown return against San Jose State last season. A group of inexperienced but talented receivers will fight for playing time and to fill out the remaining positions.

Three starters return up front, including honorable mention all-Big XII center Jacob Hickman, who may move to guard this season. Juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith return to anchor the left side of the line. If Hickman moves to right guard, sophomore Mike Caputo will take over at center. Other candidates for the right side include tackle Marcel Jones and guards D.J. Jones and Ricky Henry.

Defense

The defense is lead by pre-season All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who is also a top-ten NFL draft prospect. The defense will be dependent upon Suh to make plays or occupy enough blockers to make them better. Expect sophomore Jared Crick to start alongside Suh, with redshirt freshman Baker Steinkuhler in the rotation.

Defensive end Barry Turner returns this season after breaking his leg in early 2008. Pierre Allen did an excellent job filling in his position last season. Between Suh, Crick, Turner and Allen, Nebraska's defensive line should be one of the best in the conference this season.

At linebacker, no fewer than ten players are fighting for three starting positions. Phillip Dillard returns as the most experienced of the bunch, but after a lackluster spring must fight his way back into the starting rotation. Pelini has so far refused to name starters to keep the competition going, but you could expect redshirt freshmen Will Compton and Sean Fisher to win some starts, along with sophomore Matthew May.

The secondary returns with much more depth than the previous season. Prince Amukamara and Anthony West return as starters at the corners. Anthony Blue returns after sitting out 2008 with a knee injury. Lance Thorrell should reprise his role in the dime package. Larry Asante is the top returning starter at safety, and should make the All-Big 12 list by the end of the season. Eric Hagg should keep his spot as the other starting safety, splitting time with Matt O'Hanlon. Rickey Thenarse must have a good fall camp to fight off redshirt freshmen Courtney Osborne and P.J. Smith. The defensive secondary had too many break downs last season, but that should be much improved this year.

In a single season, Bo Pelini turned around a defense that finished near the bottom of the nation in several categories, and had them playing well enough to finish as one of the top defenses in the Big 12 by season's end. With a year of understanding Pelini's system behind them, expect the Blackshirt defense to become the bright spot for Husker fans this season.

Special Teams

Alex Henery returns as one of the most accurate kickers in the nation. In 2008, Henery went 18-21 in field goals and made 56 of 57 PATs. The Huskers will have to replace holder Jake Wesch and long snapper T.J. O'Leary, who have handled those duties over the past three seasons.

Kickoff specialist Adi Kunalic returns after finishing fifth the nation in touchbacks last season, giving the Huskers a formidable weapon in the kicking game. Henery may pull double duty and handle punting duty, a task for which he was originally recruited.

Nate Swift was the team's primary punter last season and must be replaced after having moved on this season. Niles Paul showed some promise returning punts, and should be more consistent this season. Newcomers Rex Burkhead and Antonio Bell will be considered as will redshirt freshman Tim Marlowe.

Niles Paul looks likely to replay his role as a kick returner after having a decent year in 2008. Two of the top five plays last season were Paul kick returns, including a 85-yard touchdown return against San Jose State. Alfonzo Dennard was one of only three true freshman to play last season and should handle return duties again this season. Sophomore Curenski Gilleylen and newcomers Burkhead and Antonio Bell may get their chance as well.

Kickoff coverage must get better as Nebraska finished 105th in the nation in last season. Watch for Bo Pelini to include some talented newcomers to the coverage team this season as the Huskers look for every edge possible to win the Big 12 North.

Key Losses

Joe Ganz, QB - The former bench warmer that nobody believed in until Sam Keller injured his collarbone. He came in and promptly put up three straight 400 yard games and showed a gritty resolve that endeared him to Husker fans. He leaves after setting 23 school records, including season records for passing yardage.

Nate Swift, WR - Departs as the Huskers record holder for career receptions, and ranks second for yards receiving all-time. Some might consider him a "possession" receiver, but he also had decent speed. In his senior season, he ranked 2nd in the Big XII and eighth nationally in punt returns.

Todd Peterson, WR - Along with Swift, gave Joe Ganz two dependable receivers. The pair combined for 125 receptions and over 1,700 yards.

Marlon Lucky, IB - The former five-star recruit never quite lived up to the hype from his high school days, but was a versatile weapon in all facets of the passing game.

Matt Slauson, OL - The anchor of the Husker offensive line the last few years, Slauson was drafted in the 6th round by the New York Jets, where he'll be reunited with Jets offensive line coach Bill Callahan.

Lydon Murtha, OL - Murtha was an enigma for the Huskers, as he had all of the measurables to be an impressive offensive line prospect, but never developed the consistency to be that dominant lineman that some projected. The Detroit Lions were impressed enough to take him in the seventh round of the NFL draft.

Zach Potter, DE - Potter became a dominant end in his final two seasons, showing a knack for deflecting passes and kicks. Last season, he blocked three kicks and deflected two passes to Ndamukong Suh, who returned both for touchdowns.

Ty Steinkuhler, DT - Steinkuhler was a bit of an unsung hero until the Gator Bowl last season. His presence prevented offenses from double-teaming Ndamukong Suh, as Clemson quickly learned.

Armando Murillo, CB - Nebraska's lone loss in the secondary, he was the Huskers most consistent performer in the secondary.

Dan Titchener, P - Three year starter who averaged 39.9 yards per punt in his career.

Newcomers

Pelini has already shown his penchant for retaining redshirts, so you shouldn't expect to see a lot of brand new faces this year.

Baker Steinkuhler, DT - Another Steinkuhler, the departing Ty's little brother. Should see plenty of playing time this season.

Will Compton, LB - the most likely middle linebacker of the future for the Blackshirt defense.

Sean Fisher, LB - having a break-out fall camp, should be expected to get a lot of starts this season.

Rex Burkhead, RB/KR/PR/? - Burkhead was a ‘do everything' guy in in high school, playing running back, quarterback, receiver, returning punts and kicks, along with taking out the trash. Truly a versatile player, probably too skilled to remain on the sideline this season as a true freshman.

Antonio Bell & Brandon Kinnie, WR - A pair of young wide receivers that should make some contributions and break into the starting rotation by the end of the season.

Big 12 Projected Order Of Finish:

North

Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State

South
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

2009 Opponent Previews

Atlantic Owls
Arkansas St. Red Wolves
Virginia Tech Hokies
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Missouri Tigers
Texas Tech Red Raiders owa St. Cyclones
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas St. Wildcats
Colorado Buffaloes

Nebraska’s Top Challenges Entering Spring Football

Jon Johnston — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:00:15 -0000

There might be nothing better on God’s green earth than spring football. For college football fans it’s like a big palm-tree laden oasis in the middle of a barren, desperate landscape. It provides a place of peace and relaxation, if only for a short time before a long journey starts again. At least that’s the case for the fans. For the players, it’s a whole lot of work in the hopes that the coaches will notice and move you up the depth chart in the fall.

Replacing Nate Swift Will Be One Of Nebraska's Top Priorities. It's Easier Said Than Done.

Bo Pelini had an exceptional rookie year as a head coach. His biggest problem will be that Husker fans expect his second year to be even better, even though he’s replacing the core of his offensive skill positions. If that’s to happen, several challenges that face the 2009 version of Husker football must be solved.

The list of top challenges can be found after the jump:

- Quarterback Auditioning

The most surprising news of the spring was the announcement that Patrick Witt had left the Husker football team. Witt’s departure lead to rampant speculation as to the cause, but regardless of the reasons, his choice left the quarterback position a little understaffed. With Witt, Nebraska had two quarterbacks who’d been around long enough to know the offense and take snaps on the field wearing a Nebraska uniform. Without him, there’s only one, Zac Lee.

Zac Lee holds the clear lead on the starting job due to his experience in learning Shawn Watson’s complex offense. Newcomer Cody Green has all the hype going for him - enough that everyone seems to have forgotten Kody Spano - but the best scenario would be that Spano and Lee perform well enough on the field in the fall that Green can take a redshirt season to further his development.

The key to the quarterback position in spring is simple enough - learn more of the offense to the point that you’re comfortable calling and executing the plays. After that, don’t do anything stupid, and don’t get injured.

- In A Word, Dependability

It’s not hyperbole to say that replacing the combination of Nate Swift and Todd Peterson may be one of the biggest personnel challenges the Huskers have faced in quite a long time. The pair accounted for more than half of the team’s touchdowns through the air, nearly half the total receiving yardage and along with Marlon Lucky, over half the receptions.

Swift and Peterson were remarkable in their ability to consistently find an opening in the opponent’s secondary, giving quarterback Joe Ganz a pair of dependable targets. I don’t recall a pair of receivers in Husker history who were better football players on the field at the same time.

When we talk about playmaking receivers, we frequently talk about that guy who can stretch the field, outrunning the defense while streaking down the field for the perfectly lofted long bomb. It’s that guy who makes the highlight reel and wins the Biletnikoff Award. While it’d be nice if one or more of our young receivers would assume that role those are not necessarily the guys we’re looking for.

Nebraska’s 2009 offense will need some of what it got in spades from Swift and Peterson, the ability to keep the offense moving in clutch situations. Moving the chains through the air to provide balance in the offense will be a huge key in success in 2009, meaning the replacements will need to step it up. It won’t just happen in a couple weeks of spring practice, it’ll take time. All the more reason for a strong work ethic, or in a word, dependability.

- Establish Run Blocking Dominance

If you had to choose one key to the 2009 season, it is in Barney Cotton’s ability to build a group that will establish physical dominance in the running game. Gone is last year’s right side of Slauson and Murtha, and while they excelled in pass blocking, they were slow off the ball when it came to establishing the run. Their replacements can’t afford more of the same this coming season.

Starting a new quarterback in combination with a relatively inexperienced set of receivers means that Nebraska must establish a solid running game this coming season. They are as responsible for replacing the Ganz-Swift-Peterson combination as are the receivers. If the run game can pick up four or five yards a carry, the passing game will have the time to take care of itself.

- Rebuild The Punting Game

Nebraska’s kicking game is in better shape than it’s been in quite a while. You couldn’t ask for a better duo than Alex Henery and Kunalic. Both are capable of winning games, as was evident with Alex Henery’s 57-yard game winner over Colorado.

Unfortunately, Nebraska’s punting game needs to be rebuilt. Nate Swift handled the majority of punt returns last season with Niles Paul getting some work. Paul showed flashes at times, but at others looked like a disaster waiting to happen. He must become more consistent. Better yet, Pelini needs to find a second punt returner. Spring football is the perfect time to provide that opportunity.

Nebraska will be looking for a new punter as Dan Titchener and Jake Wesch have moved on. Punting is as important as any other phase of the game, especially when you’re trying to return to the top of your conference.

- Push The Performance Higher

Pelini redshirted a few guys that might have been able to help him in his first season. It would have been easier to put Will Compton, Sean Fisher, or Baker Steinkuhler on the field to see how’d they do, but that’s not the route Pelini chose. He chose to invest in the future.

The redshirt year allowed those players to get stronger, more knowledgeable, and most importantly, more comfortable within Pelini’s system. They won’t be trying to learn at the same time they’re trying to figure out what college life is all about. They’ll be ready to take their shot and earn their time on the field. If you’re a returning starter, you can’t assume you’ll get your old job back. You’ll have to earn it.

Case in point is Phillip Dillard. A year ago, Dillard was the most experienced linebacker in a unit that had serious depth issues. It wasn’t that difficult for Dillard to keep his job, at least not as difficult as it will be this coming season. He’s not the only returning starter, and there are even more players gunning for his position.

Pelini’s choice to redshirt increased the depth across the board, increasing the competition for positions. The upper tier players cannot afford to give anything but their best effort, or they will find themselves replaced. Best effort must start in spring and continue through the fall. Anything less and the young, hungry wolves will get you.

- Follow The Leaders

If Nebraska is going to make it back to the top tier of college football, a new group of leaders must be found. The kind of leadership I’m talking about isn’t the kind that’s on the field, but must find itself dwelling in the core group of players who will hold their teammates accountable for their actions off the field.

After spring football begins the nuclear winter occupying May to August, an unbearably long time for college football fans. Leaders will assure the long layoff isn’t just that - a layoff, where guys take extended time away from weight and conditioning training.

- Back to that 'Stupid' Thing

This one is a little tongue in cheek, but not by much. If players thought they lived in a fishbowl during the regular season, the spring season can be much worse. The downside of spring football is that everything is magnified.

When 80,000 people show up for the spring game, they’re expecting a show. They’ll be looking for great plays on both sides of the ball. One poor performance will stick in their minds for months regardless of whether is has anything to do with what might happen in the fall. One stupid pass, one stupid fumble is all it takes. It may not make a difference to the coaches, but the players will hear about it and read about it.

The other unfortunate part of stupidity is this - get caught doing anything that requires a police report and your name will appear on every web site across the nation. It doesn't matter how minuscule it may appear. One not need look any further than Sam Keller’s cup throwing incident to be reminded of that.

- Pelini's Second Year Harder Than His First?

Bo Pelini has plenty of challenges facing him as he enters his second season. Take into account that he’s not a rookie coach anymore and you could argue that the challenges this year are greater than his first.

It'll be interesting to watch how Pelini handles his second year. Scratch that. It'll be more than interesting. It'll be entertaining.

Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 16:00:06 -0000

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet. That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play. Oh well, I guess. Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska. And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them. At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet. And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Nebraska	Opponents		Missouri	Opponents
59.4%		% Close	51.9%
45.7%	54.3%	Field Position %	58.5%	41.5%
71.2%	67.4%	Leverage %	76.2%	66.6%

		Total
243	282	Plays	290	317
114.58	81.79	EqPts	163.85	87.14
46.5%	38.7%	Success Rate	58.3%	38.8%
0.47	0.29	PPP	0.57	0.27
0.937	0.677	S&P	1.148	0.663

		Close Games
141	171	Plays	182	133
67.07	49.82	EqPts	108.33	35.11
44.7%	40.9%	Success Rate	59.9%	37.6%
0.48	0.29	PPP	0.60	0.26
0.922	0.701	S&P	1.194	0.640

		Rushing
46.94	36.55	EqPts	60.64	21.96
42.4%	36.3%	Success Rate	51.9%	37.4%
0.38	0.27	PPP	0.47	0.17
0.800	0.634	S&P	0.989	0.542
2.82	2.52	Line Yds/carry	3.31	2.23

		Passing
67.64	45.24	EqPts	103.21	65.18
50.8%	40.8%	Success Rate	63.4%	39.8%
0.57	0.31	PPP	0.64	0.35
1.082	0.716	S&P	1.275	0.748

		Non-Passing Downs
54.3%	45.3%	Success Rate	62.9%	44.5%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.31
1.071	0.766	S&P	1.228	0.754

		Passing Downs
27.1%	25.0%	Success Rate	43.5%	27.4%
0.33	0.24	PPP	0.46	0.21
0.605	0.491	S&P	0.890	0.481

		Turnovers
7	6	Total	5	7
11.66	18.12	Points Lost	14.68	18.27
23.69	18.12	Points Given	12.31	33.76
35.35	36.24	Total T/O Pts	26.99	52.03
+0.89	-0.89	T/O Pts Margin	+25.04	-25.04

		Q1
46.8%	42.9%	Success Rate	60.8%	41.5%
0.49	0.30	PPP	0.65	0.25
0.957	0.727	S&P	1.254	0.667

		Q2
42.6%	40.8%	Success Rate	62.0%	38.6%
0.45	0.27	PPP	0.65	0.26
0.880	0.680	S&P	1.272	0.650

		Q3
49.1%	46.5%	Success Rate	61.5%	37.8%
0.49	0.31	PPP	0.60	0.33
0.982	0.779	S&P	1.212	0.704

		Q4
47.7%	25.0%	Success Rate	46.8%	37.8%
0.46	0.28	PPP	0.32	0.26
0.932	0.528	S&P	0.789	0.638

		1st Downs
55.3%	41.5%	Success Rate	61.1%	43.3%
0.59	0.31	PPP	1.01	0.34
1.138	0.723	S&P	1.623	0.773

		2nd Downs
38.9%	34.8%	Success Rate	60.2%	34.0%
0.41	0.21	PPP	0.53	0.22
0.800	0.561	S&P	1.131	0.561

		3rd Downs
35.6%	38.5%	Success Rate	48.8%	34.3%
0.29	0.32	PPP	0.45	0.21
0.642	0.708	S&P	0.936	0.553

Thoughts...

Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year. They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming. Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs. Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry. I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition. That's a stout run defense right there.
Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin. What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games? You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team. They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4. Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3. We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off. They start fast and stay fast. Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games. They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs. A 1.623 S&P? Seriously?
The game could be made or broken on third downs. Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383. You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Mizzou-Nebraska Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 21.02
Projection #1: 28.74
2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts+: 78.53
2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
Projection #2: 20.64

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 24.69

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0. Mizzou's rushing offense is better in '08, and so is NU's rushing defense. I'm bumping this down a hair, but I still think we're seeing a window of major opportunity here. Derrick Washington could have a monster day.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.31
Projection #1: 20.87
2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts+: 102.29
2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
Projection #2: 17.99

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 19.43

Adjusted for 2008: 20.0. Again, NU's pass defense is better than last year's...but Mizzou's pass offense has gone to a new level. If NU can't get pressure on Chase Daniel from its D-line, they're dead meat.

Nebraska Rushing

2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts+: 99.81
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
Projection #1: 8.27
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 10.03
Projection #2: 8.23

Projected Nebraska Rushing Output: 8.25

Adjusted for 2008: 7.0. NU's got little to no running game this year. And Mizzou's just as good at stopping it.

Nebraska Passing

2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts+: 169.46
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
Projection #1: 20.57
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.89
Projection #2: 19.14

Projected Nebraska Passing Output: 19.86

Adjusted for 2008: 18.0. Here's the deal: NU averaged such high passing numbers in '07 because they were playing from behind so much. Ironically, the fact that they're better at passing in '08 means they probably won't be averaging as many Passing EqPts--games will be closer, and they won't be letting 'er rip quite as much.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 44.0, Nebraska 25.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nebraska 28.

Special Teams

Lincoln was the place where Missouri fans discovered what kind of kicker they were going to have for the next couple years. The one bright spot of the '06 debacle in Lincoln was Jeff Wolfert crushing a 54-yard FG at the end of the first half...to cut NU's lead to 27-6. Since then, Wolfert's missed almost nothing. He leads what is, despite the kick return TD given up against Buffalo a week and a half ago, the best special teams unit Mizzou's had in recent history, possibly ever. They've got their most accurate kicker ever, their best kick/punt returner ever, and a pretty solid punter.

Meanwhile, NU's unit is far from chopped liver. After Niles Paul got a bit of fumbleitis against Virginia Tech, Nate Swift stepped in and took a punt back 80+ yards for a TD. Meanwhile, primary kick return man Niles Paul also has a TD (a big one too--it broke open the way-too-tight San Jose State game) in this young season. Alex Henery is a solid kicker as well. The one problem: so far they're averaging 27.5 net yards per punt. That's horrendous. Granted, that includes last week's blocked punt, but Dan Titchener's 38.0 average (and propensity to give up some returns) doesn't cut it. Mizzou has a special teams advantage here, but it's not a gigantic one.

Key Players: Nebraska

WR Todd Peterson, WR Menelik Holt, TE Mike McNeil...every receiver besides Nate Swift

Back in 2005, freshman Nate Swift was Zac Taylor's go-to WR in a mediocre pass attack. 2006 and 2007 were dominated by JUCO transfer Maurice Purify, but now Swift is back to being the #1 guy. Problem is, Mizzou's still pretty darn good at stopping #1 receiving threats (thank you, Carl Gettis). So someone on the Husker offense needs to step up and play the role Ernest Jackson (Buffalo's #2 WR, who scored 3 TDs) played for Buffalo or Will Judson (177 yards, 2 TDs) played for Illinois. Problem is, the only NU WR who's caught a pass of more than 25 yards is Swift. NU's still good at the screen game--RBs Quentin Castille, Roy Helu Jr. and Marlon Lucky (remember him?) all have had at least one long reception--but call me crazy...NU's not going to beat Mizzou by screening them to death. Somebody's going to have to come up with a huge play or two, and it might be Jeremy Maclin's former Kirkwood teammate, TE Mike McNeill.

Or, you know, it might be nobody at all.

RB Marlon Lucky

I wanted to name anybody else but Lucky, but there are a lot of known quantities here. Joe Ganz is going to be pretty solid. Nate Swift is going to make a few catches. The NU O-line is going to be decent but not spectacular. Really, the key ingredient to NU being able to keep up with Mizzou on the scoreboard simply has to be Marlon Lucky. The preseason All-Big 12 RB is barely on pace for 800 rushing yards this year, and despite a 58-yard run earlier in the season, he's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry. While his backup, Roy Helu Jr., has rushed for almost as many yards on 15 fewer carries, Lucky's the workhorse, and he just has to have a big game.

DE Zach Potter

We've covered the "How to beat Mizzou" blueprint on RMN many times. The key ingredient isn't a great secondary or explosive offense--it's having great DEs. You have to be able to generate pressure on Chase Daniel without blitzing, and Potter is NU's only hope of success in that regard. He's having a solid season so far--5.0 TFL's, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 2 QB hurries; he might need all of that on Saturday. He's a big dude (6'7, 285), and he's obviously pretty athletic...now he just needs to have a career game at exactly the right time. Unfortunately for him, Mizzou's starting OT's, Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher, have been dominant thus far.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Usually, if I've already picked a DL here, I'd aim for an LB or DB with the second defensive slot. It is, after all, important that NU's DBs cover better than they have in their lives even if the D-line IS generating some pressure. But a) the LBs and DBs just don't really matter if the NU DL doesn't first dominate, and b) Suh's probably NU's most talented defensive player (other than Potter, anyway). The best-case scenario is that the 6'4, 300-pound nose tackle teams with Potter to blow up one side of Mizzou's O-line and harrass all night. I'll believe it when I see it--Suh completely and totally disappeared against good teams last year--but it's something to watch.

Key Players: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

It's quite possible that Nebraska, knowing it doesn't have the most wonderful secondary in the world, plays the mushroom cloud style of defense that teams like Arkansas and Kansas attempted against Mizzou last year, rushing 2-3 guys and dropping 8-9 into coverage. If Nebraska attempts this, it will open up humongous holes for Derrick Washington, who has already proven himself to be a better overall weapon than Tony Temple. Temple was a wonderful slasher, waiting for a hole and darting through it. Washington can do that, but he doesn't really need to wait for a hole. He can lower his head into the back of a pile and squirt through the other side for 6 yards; he can also break away for a TD at any time. Washington is the reason it seems impossible to stop Missouri right now, and if he has a big game in Lincoln, I don't see how Missouri loses unless they're fumbling the ball left and right.

OT's Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher

This one's easy--if Zach Potter and Ndamukong Suh are the keys for Nebraska, the guys blocking them (sort of) are keys for Mizzou. Granted, Suh's an NT, so he'll be on the interior of the line, but if he (and DT Ty Steinkuhler) can rough up the middle of the Mizzou O-line, it's up to Brown and Fisher to keep Chase Daniel from being blindsided. I'm not worried about pressure from up the middle--Daniel can see that coming--it's what he can't see that I worry about.

DE Stryker Sulak

After a wonderful start to the season (3 sacks against Illinois), Sulak has more or less disappeared. He's been the second-best DE on Mizzou's team (anybody notice how well Tommy Chavis has been playing?) for the last three games. It's time for Sulak to make some more noise. Ziggy Hood's coming along, and if Sulak lives up to the expectations he built for himself, this defense is suddenly pretty scary.

FS William Moore

Remember him? I'm talking about William Moore the safety, not William Moore the third defensive end. Assuming we scale back the Moore experimentation a bit and he, you know, actually plays free safety (and is healthy enough to play it well), he is Mizzou's most dangerous player. Mizzou held a decent Buffalo offense in check without Moore, but Nebraska's obviously better than Buffalo, and Mizzou will need Moore to start making plays.

Then again, Sean Weatherspoon might just make all the plays, in which case it really doesn't matter what Moore does.

Summary

I want nothing more than to believe we're going to break a 30-year losing streak in Lincoln by absolutely destroying NU. It's within the realm of possibility. NU can't get to Chase Daniel early, Mizzou races to a quick early lead, Mizzou tees off on Joe Ganz, ..., blowout ensues.

But it's probably not going to happen. I've been saying for two weeks now that we are likely to get everything Nebraska has. Trick plays, inspired blitzes, some completely unknown receiver (Curenski Gilleylen, maybe?) coming out of the woodwork and finding a couple blindspots in Mizzou's Cover-2. They'll probably even get a couple Sea-of-Red-style lucky bounces like the ones that quickly turned the '06 game into a blowout (Really? Will Franklin actually bats the ball to Adam Carriker?).

It's going to be a game. But it comes down to what I've been repeating ad nauseum for the last two weeks: even with inspired play and some homefield bounces, can Nebraska stop Missouri more than Missouri can stop Nebraska? The only reason I can come up with to convince myself that would happen is that...well, this game is in Lincoln. Lincoln has been very bad to Mizzou over the years. But you know what? Manhattan and Boulder had also been bad to Mizzou for the last decade-plus. And Mizzou ended those jinxes quite violently in 2007. It's time to end this jinx too. Bring it on, Huskers.

Prediction: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

Poll

What scares you most about Mizzou's trip to Lincoln this Saturday?

Look at all those upsets last weekend!

25 votes

Joe Ganz to Nate Swift!

7 votes

It's in freaking Lincoln. Can you think of one good thing that's happened in Lincoln in my lifetime?

145 votes

Chase Daniel was awful there in 2006!

6 votes

One of these days, Marlon Lucky's going to turn into a great back...I just know it!

10 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed