SB Nation - Jermaine Gresham

USC Underclassmen with NFL Prospects: Will Anyone Leave Early?

Gamecock Man — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:00:40 -0000

Last year, our team was decimated by early entrees to the NFL draft, losing three key players: Jared Cook, Captain Munnerlyn, and Emanuel Cook. This year, there's not much talk about the possibility of us taking a big hit due to early entrees. Should we be worried, or are we right to be confident? From where I'm standing, there are four players who could consider leaving early. In order of their status as prospects, those are Weslye Saunders, Chris Culliver, Cliff Matthews, and Clifton Geathers. Let's take a closer look.

Weslye Saunders

Saunders would almost certainly be drafted were he to declare. He is a prototypical NFL tight end: he's huge, is a good blocker, has nearly infallible hands, and is fast for his size. Most league still rely on sets that feature TEs, so Saunders wouldn't have to worry about finding a home for his skills.

The question is where he would go. He would have to compete with a number of highly touted ends, such as Oklahoma's Jermaine Gresham and Arizona's Rob Gronkowski. At the very least, I think he would fall behind these two prospects and perhaps slightly further. That would probably mean third round or lower.

If Saunders stays, on the other hand, he could be a first round pick. Most projections I've seen call him the top TE prospect of the 2010 senior class. The difference, of course, between first and third round money is enough to give prospects some incentive to stay another year; a player can easily make up whatever he loses with another year in college by signing a first-round contract that will pay him a few times more than he would receive with a third-round contract.

The coaching staff believes that Saunders is the player most likely to declare. However, Saunders vows to return. Although one couldn't blame him too much for leaving, Saunders would be wise to follow his instincts and come back. Like Sidney Rice and Jared Cook before him, he'd probably be a first-day pick if he declares. However, as would have probably been the case for Sidney and Jared had they returned, if Saunders comes back and has a big year, he could go early first round.

Let's take a look at the other players after the jump.

Chris Culliver

Although he had something of an up and down year, Culliver is still one of the better safeties in the league and made All-SEC second team. Culliver also has the speed and versatility that NFL teams look for in a safety. How would he fare in the draft, though? While Culliver might be taken, my feeling is that he would be making a huge, Emanuel Cook-sized mistake by leaving. At best, Culliver would be a very late-round pick, which would mean the likelihood of trying to gut out a spot on the third team somewhere with no guarantees that he wouldn't eventually just end up on a scout team. That doesn't sound like as much fun as trying to help the Gamecocks win a title, now does it? On the other hand, if Culliver stays, he has a puncher's chance at being a first-day pick and, with a big year, could make it to the first two rounds.

Despite the talk in the air about Culliver declaring, I just don't see it. After seeing what happened to his backfield buddies last year, Culliver has to know that he'd be taking an unwise risk by leaving. I say Culliver stays, works on his tackling mechanics, and comes back poised for big things in 2010.

Cliff Matthews

Big Cliff had another great year in 2009 being a game changer off the end. However, Matthews is smallish for an NFL end, so like Eric Norwood, Matthews faces the challenge of making NFL scouts believe that he has a place in a league that can be quite dogmatic in its understanding of what players at certain positions should look like. With a big year, Matthews could make that case in 2010, but I doubt he would be drafted this year. That combined with Matthews clear dedication to the team makes me think there's little chance of Matthews even considering leaving.

Clifton Geathers

Geathers is something of a wildcard here. He has yet to make a huge name for himself around the country, so many might be surprised to hear his name mentioned in regards to the draft. However, I suspect more NFL scouts know about Geathers than you might think. At 6-7 / 281 and with the speed to blow by blockers, Geathers has the potential to an unblockable sack, pass deflection, and punt blocking machine when he fulfills his potential. Gamecocks fans have seen hints of this ability, particularly late this year, but Geathers has yet to put it all together for an extended period of time. That won't stop agents from getting in his ear, though.

That said, I seriously doubt Geathers would be drafted if he were to declare, and I would imagine he's intelligent enough to know that. Geathers will stay, and if he works hard, you could see him skyrocket to the top of the charts for the 2010 draft.

Q & A with Crimson and Cream Machine

Seth C — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:04:23 -0000

Much thanks to ccmachine at Crimson and Cream Machine for taking the time to answer a few questions for DTN. Updates on the OU injury front, how to get to QB Landry Jones, why the offense struggles to run, etc.

The Sooners have been severely bitten by the injury bug this year, can you give us a quick run down of the injured starters we can expect to see out against Texas Tech and how have their replacements fared thus far?

QB Sam Bradford – Landry Jones has been solid but not spectacular in replacing Bradford. To be honest he looks a bit like Bradford did in `07 with the exception of not reading through his progressions as well as he should. Every young quarterback makes mistakes and bad throws it’s just that Jones has made some really, really bad ones. A lot of Sooner fans aren’t over the 5 interceptions he threw against Nebraska yet. A good performance on the road could help out a lot with that.
TE Jermaine Gresham – Oklahoma still hasn’t found a replacement for him which is natural when you lose the best tight end in the nation. However, you’d think that they would have someone at capable of getting regular reps. Walk on Trent Ratterree leads all tight ends with 6 catches for 51 yards. It should go without saying that we (the fans) expected a lot more from that position than anyone else.

OL Brody Eldridge – Brody is quite possibly the best player on Oklahoma’s roster. He’s started at center, tight end and right guard. He regularly graded out as Oklahoma’s best offensive lineman and wasn’t too shabby at the tight end position either.

OL Brian Simmons – Simmons actually returned to practice this week and while its unclear if he’ll play or not it certainly is clear that the Sooners need him.

OL Jarvis Jones – He’s out for the remainder of the season with a foot injury.

Oklahoma’s offensive line has been a hodge-podge of personnel this season anyway but now depth is a real concern. There have been so many different lineups on the line that I’ve really lost count. The one silver lining in the lack of depth is that the guys who are in there now have the ability to build some continuity.

DE Auston English – At one time in his career English was the Big 12 sack leader but he’s been hampered by injuries every since. The good news here is that Oklahoma is very deep in talent at the defensive end spot and Frank Alexander was able to fill the role very well last week.

More after the jump.

Is QB Landry Jones still trying to find his way as a quarterback and if so, what does he do well and what still needs work?

I think that it’s still a learning process for Landry. He had to battle freshman Drew Allen for the backup position but in reality this was supposed to be Sam Bradford’s farewell tour as a Sooner and Jones had to be thrust into battle in game one. He’s getting a better grasp on the offense but still struggles under pressure, gets rattled easy, doesn’t go through his progressions and looks very uncomfortable in the pocket. Basically all the things that make us OU fans very uncomfortable just about on every pass play.

The OU defense, especially the pass rush has been outstanding this year. I haven't seen a ton of Sooner football this year, how have the Sooners been getting to the quarterback? Simple 4-man rush, blitzes, stunts, etc.?

Oklahoma’s front four have been extremely successful at getting to the quarterback without the need for blitzing but their success as also made blitzing that much more difficult to pick up. Brent Venables has done an outstanding job most of the season at bringing a linebacker or defensive back on the blitz and even dropping defensive ends back into coverage. It’s a variety of schemes that are used to pressure the backfield but it all starts with the success of the tackles and ends.

The rushing offense has been tremendous in wins for the Sooners, but relatively poor in losses. Is it the opponents that were causing those tough rushing efforts or was it a symptom of the beat-up offensive line?

I think that it’s a little bit of both but mostly the offensive line. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown were both 1,000 yard backs last season and they have 592 and 608 yards respectfully this season through 10 games. This line is doing an okay job at pass blocking but I’d still give them a big FAIL when it comes to run blocking. I’d even go so far as to say that the success in running the ball this year has come more on the talent of Murray and Brown than the blocking of the line.

Complete the following: "The Sooners will win if __________ happens and the Sooners will lose if __________ happens."

The Sooners will win if they can run their offense. Defensively this is one of the best teams of the Bob Stoops era but offensively its one of the worst. In Oklahoma’s four losses they’ve only averaged 12.25 points which we both know won’t be enough to beat Tech this Saturday.

They’ll lose if something crazy happens again. Seriously, going to Lubbock is like entering the Twilight Zone for the Sooners, something strange always happens. In 2005 it was the phantom first down and the iffy touchdown that gave the Red Raiders a win. I know, I know, you say he was in and I say he wasn’t so let’s just leave it at that. In 2007 Sam Bradford gets a concussion and Joey Halzle gets pressed into service but is unable to pull off a comeback. If none of those type things happen and Oklahoma is able to run their offense then I like their chances.

Q & A With Crimson And Cream Machine

Beergut — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:37:39 -0000

We preview our game with the Oklahoma Sooners by asking a few questions of Crimson and Cream Machine, SB Nation's excellent Oklahoma blog. Thanks to moderator ccmachine for his answers and insight into the Sooner program.

1. I thought after the 2005 season, Stoops would have learned his lesson, and y'all wouldn't have to go through a wholesale 'rebuild' season where you suffer a serious dropoff from previous seasons. Granted, you can't win the Big 12 every single year, and three in a row is a nice run, but do you have any thoughts on why Stoops & Staff weren't able to have adequate replacements ready to step up this season, particularly on the offensive line?

This seems to be more of a question of ignorance than anything else. What lesson was Stoops to learn from `05 that would have prepared him for the rash of injuries in `09? With yesterday’s injury to offensive lineman Jarvis Jones, making him doubtful for Saturday, the Sooners have now lost over half of their offensive unit to injury. What coach has a contingency plan for that?

Sam Bradford was the one who took most of the reps in preseason camp and this season was supposed to be spent prepping Landry Jones for next year. Instead Bradford is done and Jones has been thrown into the fire. The guy that was supposed to be behind Bradford transferred to Michigan State after losing out on the starting position which left just freshmen in the fold after Joey Halzle graduated last season. We knew the linemen wouldn’t be as good as last year but it also appears that not all 4-Star recruits are as good as advertised. That goes for receivers as well. Adron Tennell was a highly touted 4-Star guy coming out of high school. Now we know why he’s been riding the pine for his entire career.

2. Injuries have ravaged your team, with All-Americans Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham being lost for the season. Brody Eldridge and Auston English are now out for the season after the Nebraska game. Is it just bad luck this year, or do you think there is an issue on the S&C program that is leading to more injuries this year?

We call it the curse of Andre Ware! It has nothing to do with the strength and conditioning program. Bob Stoops has never suffered a rash of injuries like this and his strength and conditioning system has been in place since 1999.

3. All Aggies are familiar with DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown, and Ryan Broyles. We've watched Landry Jones attempt to replace Sam Bradford's production in the OU offense. Who is an offensive player we might not know about who could be a key contributor on Saturday?

DeJuan Miller (#24) has really come on lately. I have not idea why he didn’t play against Texas but since he entered into the starting lineup against Baylor the Red River Shootout is the only game where he didn’t receive a significant amount of playing time. He’s slowly moving his way up the ladder in receiving yards and earning the trust of Landry Jones as the second option at receiver.

4. Who is the A&M player you are most worried about on offense or defense?

On offense you can’t ignore what Jerrod Johnson is doing. He is quietly putting together the best season of any Big 12 quarterback by completing over 60% of his passes with a Big 12-best 21 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions.
Just as impressive on defense is Von Miller who leads the Big 12 in sacks with 15.5. He’ll be going up against a hodge-podge offensive line and will no doubt live in Oklahoma ’s backfield.

5. What does A&M need to do to pull the upset?

All they have to do is score more points. Yes, I realize that is a plain answer but its also a simple plan. The Aggies will struggle against Oklahoma ’s defense but conversely Oklahoma ’s offense is really hurting and may still struggle to score despite the Aggies being dead last in the Big 12 when it comes to scoring defense.

6. OU has been ridiculously tough at home under Bob Stoops. What do the Aggies need to do to take the crowd out of the game?

OU fans are already disgruntled with the offense so the longer the Aggies can keep Landry Jones and company at bay the more you’ll see and hear grumbling from within the stadium.

7. Score prediction.

OU’s offense is bad but A&M’s defense is worse. I like the Sooners 27-10.

Q&A With An Oklahoma Sooner Expert

Jon Johnston — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:00:29 -0000

by Sue Ogrocki - AP

OU receiver Ryan Broyles is the Sooner's most dangerous playmaker. Shutting him down will be a key for the Huskers' Blackshirt defense.

View full size photo »

No one knows more about the Sooners than someone who follows them on a regular basis, so we asked Matt at the SB Nation site Crimson and Cream Machine to answer some questions about this weekend's Oklahoma vs Nebraska game.

I took my kids trick-or-treating with the Sooners rolling over Kansas State. I came back, and it's 35-30. What happened?

I'm not sure what happened there and I was watching it. OU jumped out 21-0 and then they just took their foot off the gas, so to speak. I have a theory that Bob Stoops has enough respect for Bill Snyder that he had the offense go ultra conservative in order to prevent an absolute blowout of his former mentor but that would have only worked if the defense was able to continue doing what it did through the first fifteen minutes when the score was 21-0. However, when the OU offense went into a shell (for whatever reason) the K-State offense came to life and was unstoppable for about two quarters.

The Sooners woke back up again in the fourth quarter but not before being given a legitimate scare. Landry Jones was 10-for-10 passing in the final quarter and after he led a scoring drive to push the lead to 35-23. Brandon Banks returned the kickoff 98 yards to bring it back to a 35-30 game. Fortunately Jones and company had one more drive left in them and scored again in the fourth for the final 42-30 outcome.

In the preseason, there was quite a bit of debate whether Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy was the best d-lineman in the Big XII, yet we've hardly heard much about McCoy this season. Is this because Mister Suh (as ESPN/ABC has given up trying to pronounce Ndamukong) is dominating the headlines, or is McCoy not playing up to expectations?

McCoy is in no way having a bad season and both are exceptional players. Gerald McCoy lives in the opponent's backfield. He has 12 tackles for loss but has been overshadowed a bit by defensive end Jeremy Beal who has 13.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.

With 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, Suh has certainly lived up to his expectations this season but to think that for some reason McCoy hasn't is a bit of a stretch.

The Sooner offensive line has struggled this season. Is this due to a lack of players, inconsistent line up, or what's happening there? Would you put most of the problems with Oklahoma's offense on this unit?

I think that there are several things that you could pin Oklahoma's offensive woes upon but it all starts with the line. Before the season even started Bob Stoops said that Oklahoma's offense would only be as good as the line allowed them to be and that has certainly been true. That was also before injuries took Jermaine Gresham and Sam Bradford away from this unit as well. The line does a decent job at pass blocking but the two main struggles have been picking up blitzes and run blocking. Then there are the mental errors (false starts) and acts of desperation (holding penalties). Watching Oklahoma's offensive line really is a comedy of errors.

Keep in mind that OU's offense is scoring a respectable 33.1 points per game. Its just when you compare it to last year's pace it just isn't the same and its not what we expected this year either.

Other than Ryan Broyles, who is the most consistent receiver? Who's the most dangerous?

How about no one for an answer? Ryan Broyles is the most dangerous receiver and there really is no one else! Brandon Caleb has been solid and Adron Tennell has come on as of late but they've both struggled with the drops this season. Dejuan Miller had a breakout game against Kansas State but we'd like to see some more consistency from him. DeMarco Murray also catches passes out of the backfield and occasionally from the slot. The tight end position is pretty much non-existent so basically what we have is a quarterback's second option done by committee.

Would you like to see the Big 12 change scheduling so that Nebraska - Oklahoma play on a yearly basis, or does this ex-rivalry mean much to Sooner fans?

Like many fans I grew up on the Oklahoma/Nebraska rivalry and would love to see it return to yearly game, and I would want it put back in its rightful Thanksgiving weekend spot. I know there has been some talk about pursuing this but I just don't see how it would work out for the benefit of the conference. And as well all know if it doesn't benefit the conference it most likely isn't going to happen.

Prediction?

I don't see this being anything like last year's game. With two dominating defenses I think that it will be a close game decided by special teams and turnovers. I favor Oklahoma in that because our freshman quarterback has played in every game this season and started five of them while yours is just making his second start. OU will be able to pressure him more than Baylor did which will put him under fire for the first time this season. Landry Jones has already been up against Texas and Miami defenses and while the Huskers will bring tons of pressure it will be something that Jones has already experienced on multiple occasions.

OU 17 - Nebraska 10

Revisiting the Oklahoma Sooners

Husker Mike — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:39 -0000

More photos » by Donna McWilliam - AP

Fear the Stache! (AP Photo/Donna McWilliam)

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We're resurfacing the preseason preview of the Oklahoma Sooners. The biggest change is that both Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham are out for the season with injuries. Think that had an impact on the Sooners? Well, they've lost three games this season ... by a total of five frickin' points. So even with Landry Jones ("Fear the Stache!") now at the helm, the Sooners are still a potent bunch. Invincible, obviously not.

The offensive line has struggled, leading to reduced production from DeMarco Murray and the shoulder injury to Bradford. The inexperience at receiver is starting to settle out, but Kansas State scoring 30 last week probably raises some eyebrows.

So what did we say back in the heat of summertime about the Sooners? While the Sooners aren't as potent as last season, I think the poll results probably still would hold.

Under Bob Stoops, Oklahoma has established themselves as the dominant team in the Big XII conference in this decade, with six conference championships in the last nine years. Yes, Texas got a national championship this decade as well, and the Sooners haven't done so well in bowl games, losing the last five BCS bowl games.

Losing those games hurts, no doubt...but any Sooner fan would take the 2000's over the 1990's, when the Sooners stumbled and bumbled and nearly became irrelevent.

Last season seemed like another Stoops-era team. Won the Big XII championship game, then lost to Florida 24-14 in the BCS Championship Game. From that squad, 14 starters return, ensuring that once again, the Sooners will be challenging for Big XII superiority once again.

Offensively, it all starts with quarterback Sam Bradford, who took home the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore last season. Completed nearly 68% of his passes for 50 (yes, FIFTY) touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He set an NCAA record for pass efficiency at 180.8. In summary: he's good. Especially at home ... or at least within the state of Oklahoma, where he's undefeated in his college career.

Junior DeMarco Murray and senior Chris Brown represent the best running back tandem in the Big XII conference. Murray was all-Big XII last season...yet Brown outgained him in yards: 1220 for Brown versus 1002 yards for Murray. (Murray's season ended due to a knee injury suffered on the opening kickoff of the Big XII Championship game, allowing Brown to pass Murray up.)

Graduation hit the rest of the Sooners offense hard; gone are wide receivers Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson. Sophomore Ryan Broyles enters 2009 as the leading candidate to start; he set an OU record for freshman receiving yards. Broyles lit up Cincinnati for 141 yards and finished the season as the Sooners #3 receiver. Senior all-Big XII tight end Jermaine Gresham will be Bradford's favorite target. The 6'6" 261 freak is simply too fast for linebackers to cover and too big for the secondary to bring down. Defensive coordinators will lose a lot of hair trying to figure out what to do with Gresham.

Up front, the Sooners lose four of five offensive linemen, only returning senior all-Big XII left tackle Trent Williams. Three of the departing starters (Phil Loadholt, Duke Robinson, and Jon Cooper) were all-Big XII in 2008. The anticipated replacements were all highly regarded recruits, but are generally light on experience with the exception of senior left guard Brian Simmons, who played in every game and started twice in 2008. We'll find out in 2009 just how much of Bradford's numbers in 2008 can be attributed to the fortress protecting him up front.

On defense, the Sooners are absolutely loaded. On the defensive line, junior all-Big XII defensive end Jeremy Beal, junior all-American defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, and senior all-Big XII (in 2007) defensive end Auston English all return. English sprained his knee against the Huskers last season, causing him to miss the next three games and relegating him to merely honorable mention all-conference in 2008. Junior defensive tackle Adrian Taylor started all 14 games last season to round out the defensive line.

Depth at linebacker is much the same story. Last year's Big XII Defensive freshman of the year and all-Big XII in 2008, sophomore Travis Lewis returns, as does senior Keenan Clayton, who was honorable mention all-Big XII last season. The heart of the defense, senior middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds returns after suffering a torn ACL in the Texas game. The Sooner defense never seemed to recover from the loss of Reynolds last season.

In the secondary, both senior cornerbacks Brian Jackson and Dominque Franks return. Franks, a second-team all-Big XII selection last season, jumped on the wide receiver screen pass from Joe Ganz to Nate Swift and easily scored on the pick-six before anybody in Husker gear realized what had happened. The Sooners will need to break in new safeties to replace all-Big XII Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes. Most teams would kill to only have those question marks going into the season.

Last year's Sooner defense forced three turnovers on Nebraska's first five offensive plays to jump to a 28-0 lead barely six minutes into the game. With almost all of that defense returning in 2009, it's going to make it even more difficult to pull off an upset in Lincoln. While Nebraska's defense looks to be able to match up better with the Sooner offense this season, the Husker offense is going to need to progress rapidly to get Nebraska into the game against this group of Sooners. Pulling off that upset is going to be quite the challenge.

Poll

What's your prediction when the Husker/Sooner Rivalry resumes in November?

Remember how Arizona State paid NU back in 1996? Nebraska shocks the world with a huge win.

24 votes

Nebraska pulls out a close win in another classic

61 votes

22%

Sooner Magic bites the Huskers again, and the Sooners break Husker hearts in a squeaker.

146 votes

64%

It'll take longer than 6 minutes this year, but it's still another Sooner blowout.

426 votes

657 votes | Poll has closed

Updated BTBS Projections

Bill C. — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:00:35 -0000

Week 10 picks are coming up tomorrow, but keeping with the every-other-week timeline, it's time to check in on current BTBS projections for the rest of the season. Preseason projections have finally completely phased out of the rankings, meaning there have been some pretty decent rises and falls since last time we put on our projecting hat. And speaking of projections, we'll revisit the preseason projections to who we got exactly right and who we completely whiffed on in the preseason.

UPDATE: the original projections had Baylor beating Tech with home-field advantage. I forgot the game was in Arlington. Wiping out the home-field adjustment, Tech now wins.

Big 12

North Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Nebraska	6-2	9-4	Cotton
Missouri	5-3	9-3	Sun
Iowa State	4-4	7-5	Texas
Kansas State	3-5	5-7
Kansas	2-6	6-6	Insight
Colorado	1-7	2-10
South Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Texas	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Oklahoma	6-2	8-4	Holiday
Oklahoma State	5-3	8-4	Alamo
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	Independence
Texas Tech	4-4	7-5	New Mexico
Baylor	0-8	3-9

Nailed It (or almost nailed it): Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska
Not so much: Iowa State, Oklahoma
I mentioned in the preview piece that "not having an 'All-Americans lost' qualifier instead of just 'starters lost' helps Missouri out quite a bit" and that Missouri probably wasn't going the projected 10-2, but right now, they're still coming close. If Missouri wins out (and they're still projected to do so), the only game the projections will have missed on Mizzou was the Nebraska Monsoon, which still looks like it will make the difference in the division race.
The main thing the projections missed was Iowa State's overachieving, not that anybody else actually predicted that correctly. Meanwhile, obviously the projections weren't able to predict "OU will get a total of 7 quarters out of Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham combined, and OSU will lose Kendall Hunter to injury and Dez Bryant to Deion Sanders"), so those are pretty excusable misses, I would think.
The North is still a complete question mark, but take these projections to mean that it still looks like the teams most likely to take the title are still Missouri and Nebraska; the numbers still have no idea what to do with K-State, who have looked great and terrible on offense, great and terrible on defense, and great and terrible on special teams. They're absolutely better than they were a month ago, but overall the numbers still don't like them much.

ACC

Atlantic Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Clemson	6-2	10-3	Orange
Boston College	5-3	8-4	Emerald
Wake Forest	4-4	6-6	Meineke Car Care
Florida State	3-5	5-7
N.C. State	1-7	4-8
Maryland	1-7	2-10
Coastal Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Georgia Tech	7-1	11-2	Chick-Fil-A
Miami-FL	6-2	10-2	Gator
Virginia Tech	6-2	9-3	Champs Sports
North Carolina	3-5	7-5	Music City
Duke	3-5	5-7
Virginia	3-5	4-8

Nailed It: Clemson, BC, N.C. State, Virginia
Not So Much: Florida State, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke
The numbers have been on the Clemson bandwagon since the beginning of the year, and that hasn't changed since the projections have been phased out. I still have them as the best overall team in the conference, beating Georgia Tech in a rematch in the ACC Championship game.
I'm telling you, never bet against BC. They look horrendous half the year, and their style isn't fun to watch, but they win games, and they will probably continue to do so. "No Mark Herzlich? Okay, I guess we'll just have to send a true freshman out there to (maybe) win ACC Defensive Player of the Year, then."
So remember when I said "I also think Maryland could sneak into 8-9 wins if things bounce right, but we'll see"? Remember that? Neither do I.

Big East

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Pittsburgh	6-1	10-2	Orange
Cincinnati	6-1	11-1	Fiesta
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	Meineke Car Care
South Florida	4-3	8-4	St. Petersburg
Connecticut	3-4	6-6	International
Louisville	2-5	5-7
Rutgers	1-6	6-6
Syracuse	1-6	4-8

The projections currently have Pittsburgh beating Cincinnati by 1.6 points on December 5 to win the conference title. Really, that would be a best-case scenario for the conference, as it would probably result in them getting two BCS bids. The rest of their bowl slate is so god-awful that that's pretty much the only way they can get a bit of the showcase spotlight.
Nailed It: West Virginia, South Florida
Not So Much: Rutgers, Cincinnati
I'm generally considering "Nailed it" to be within one win of what's projected now, while "Not So Much" is within three wins or more. I was in the ballpark with a lot of these picks, but I nailed very few. Not that anybody nailed Cincy...
Remember when I had Rutgers projected to win big? Good times.

Big Ten

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Iowa	7-1	11-1	Rose
Penn State	7-1	11-1	Sugar
Wisconsin	6-2	10-2	Capital One
Ohio State	6-2	9-3	Outback
Minnesota	4-4	7-5	Champs Sports
Purdue	4-4	5-7
Michigan State	3-5	5-7
Michigan	2-6	6-6	Alamo
Northwestern	2-6	5-7
Illinois	2-6	3-9
Indiana	1-7	4-8

Nailed It: Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana
Not So Much: Illinois
Pretty much nailed most of this conference. Ironically, the only team I missed badly was Illinois...and I still had Illinois projected to be worse than most people thought.
Pretty interesting situation for the conference here--four teams are projected at either 5-7 or 6-6 now, meaning they could end up with anywhere between five and nine bowl-eligible teams. The MAC is praying it's five, I'm sure. As always, the MAC is projected to have about 23 6-6 teams, but that's neither here nor there.

Conference USA

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
East Carolina	6-2	7-6	St. Petersburg
Marshall	5-3	7-5	New Orleans
Central Florida	4-4	6-6	EagleBank
Southern Miss	4-4	6-6	Papajohns.com
UAB	4-4	4-8
Memphis	2-6	3-9
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Houston	6-2	11-2	Liberty
SMU	6-2	7-5	Hawaii
Tulsa	5-3	7-5	Armed Forces
UTEP	4-4	5-7
Tulane	2-6	4-8
Rice	0-8	0-12

Nailed It: Marshall, UAB, Central Florida, Houston, SMU
Not So Much: Southern Miss, East Carolina, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice
I officially have no idea what to think of Tulsa anymore. G.J. Kinne got a concussion, and apparently that's part of the reason for their baffling 14-point loss to SMU, but still...it just seems they should be better than they are. They're still looking at a bowl bid, but they're not looking like the C-USA favorite anymore, like I had them in August.
Nailed the sleeper-ness of Marshall and SMU!
Meanwhile, Southern Miss still looks like a decent team, but they haven't gotten the breaks, and East Carolina is shaping up to be one of those "defies what the stats think of them" teams.

Independents

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Notre Dame	--	9-3	Gator
Navy	--	8-5	Texas
Army	--	3-9

Here's what I said about Notre Dame in the preview: "A hair better than projected, and they shoot straight to 10-2 or 11-1. A hair worse, and the Charlie Weis Era ends at 3-9 or 4-8." Right now, they're looking a hair better than projected, but not much. They still have two games (Pittsburgh and Stanford) projected within four points and all four remaining games within 11 points. They could still be looking at either 7-5 or 10-2 when all is said and done. Kudos to them for figuring out ways to win despite the loss of Michael Floyd. And kudos to their fans for surviving SIX STRAIGHT GAMES DECIDED BY A TOUCHDOWN OR LESS. If they were four points worse this season, they'd be 3-5 right now; four points better, and they'd be 7-1.

MAC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Temple	7-1	9-4	EagleBank
Ohio	6-2	8-4	GMAC
Bowling Green	5-3	6-6
Kent State	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	3-5	5-7
Akron	2-6	3-9
Miami-OH	2-6	2-10
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Central Michigan	8-0	11-2	Pizza! Pizza!
Northern Illinois	5-3	7-5	International
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6
Toledo	3-5	5-7
Ball State	1-7	1-11
Eastern Michigan	0-8	1-11

Nailed It: Bowling Green, Ohio, Miami-OH, Northern Illinois, Toledo,
Not So Much: Akron, Temple, Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan
The talent level in this conference is so close that it's hard to avoid missing badly on some teams...and miss I did. Granted, I got a lot right too, but still. Buffalo's another "defies the stats" team, while Temple was really close to a high projection but didn't quite manage it.
No matter what, thank you to the MAC for always producing enough 6-6 teams that all of the bowls will be able to fill all of their slots.

Mountain West

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
TCU	8-0	12-0	Fiesta
BYU	7-1	10-2	Las Vegas
Utah	6-2	9-3	Poinsettia
Air Force	5-3	7-5	Humanitarian
Colorado State	3-5	6-6	Armed Forces
San Diego State	3-5	5-7
UNLV	2-6	4-8
Wyoming	2-6	4-8
New Mexico	0-8	0-12

Nailed It: TCU, BYU, Utah, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming
Not So Much: New Mexico
Overall, this was probably my best set of picks. The top three teams are all looking at exactly the record projected for them in August, and the only real miss was "New Mexico is going to be worse than you could possibly imagine."
Right now, I have TCU sneaking past Boise State for the Fiesta Bowl bid. Poor Boise is being forgotten, I think, and at least TCU still has Utah on the schedule for one more reasonably-sized game.

Pac-10

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Oregon	9-0	11-1	Rose
USC	7-2	10-2	Holiday
Arizona	6-3	7-5	Sun
Oregon State	5-4	6-6	Poinsettia
Stanford	5-4	6-6	Emerald
California	4-5	7-5	Las Vegas
Washington	4-5	5-7
UCLA	3-6	6-6	Insight
Arizona State	2-7	4-8
Washington State	0-9	1-11

Nailed It: Oregon, USC, Arizona, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington State
Not So Much: Oregon State, California, Washington
Another lovely set of picks. Oregon State and Cal have both underachieved a bit but can still turn things around at least somewhat. Meanwhile Washington has clearly achieved at a higher level than expected. Still, though, you have to say this much: the projections CRUSHED it on the Oregon projection. Am very happy with that one.

SEC

East Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Florida	8-0	13-0	BCS Championship
Tennessee	5-3	8-4	Capital One
Georgia	5-3	7-5	Outback
South Carolina	3-5	6-6	Liberty
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	Papajohns.com
Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10
West Division	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Alabama	8-0	12-1	Sugar
Arkansas	4-4	8-4	Chick-Fil-A
LSU	4-4	8-4	Cotton
Auburn	3-5	7-5	Music City
Ole Miss	3-5	7-5	Independence
Mississippi State	3-5	5-7

Nailed It: Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss
Not So Much: Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Allow me a little bit of a chest-pound here. Nailing Florida and Alabama was relatively easy, but Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Ole Miss? There was pretty high degree of difficulty there. Looks like I overstated Georgia's and Vanderbilt's potential and didn't account for Mississippi State being as salty as they are, but otherwise I'm really happy with how this has turned out.

Sun Belt

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Troy	8-0	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	7-1	9-3	GMAC
Florida Atlantic	5-3	6-6
UL-Monroe	5-3	6-6
Arkansas State	3-5	4-8
Florida International	3-5	3-9
North Texas	2-6	4-8
UL-Lafayette	2-6	4-8
Western Kentucky	1-7	1-11

Nailed It: Troy, Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Florida International
Not So Much: North Texas
Another nice set of picks. Todd Dodge's Mean Green are also saltier than expected, but otherwise this was pretty much dead on. Hooray!

WAC

	Proj. Conf.	Proj. Overall	Proj. Bowl
Boise State	8-0	13-0	Pizza! Pizza!
Fresno State	6-2	8-4	Hawaii
Nevada	6-2	7-5	New Mexico
Idaho	5-3	8-4	Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech	3-5	4-8
San Jose State	3-5	4-8
Hawaii	2-6	5-8
Utah State	2-6	3-9
New Mexico State	1-7	3-10

With Boise missing out on the BCS bowls, I looked for the most appealing spot for them to pull what they did last year in the Poinsettia Bowl--finding another big-time matchup through at-large bids. There were really none coming about, unless they wanted to take on a 6-6 major conference team like Texas Tech or UCLA, so I paired them with the class of the MAC, Central Michigan, in Detroit. Not as exciting as last year's Boise-TCU game, but fun nonetheless.
Nailed It: Boise State, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, New Mexico State
Not So Much: Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho
Nevada struggled much more in the early going than expected, though they seem to be figuring things out now. Meanwhile, Idaho was projected to be TERRIBLE, so power to them for proving me wrong by about eight games.

In all, I do have to be happy with the way things have turned out so far, especially considering that this was my first stab at projections. I'm looking at a much broader base of data for next year (should have full play-by-play for 2004-2009), which in theory makes for more accurate projections. Either way, though, color me satisfied.

Bowl Projections

I'm bolding the awesomely fantastic matchups, italicizing the awful ones.

Date	Bowl	Tie-ins	Matchup
12/19	New Mexico	MWC vs WAC	Nevada (7-5) vs Texas Tech (6-6)
12/19	St. Petersburg	Big East vs C-USA	South Florida (8-4) vs East Carolina (7-6)
12/20	New Orleans	C-USA vs Sun Belt #1	Troy (9-3) vs Marshall (7-5)
12/22	Las Vegas	MWC #1 vs Pac-10	BYU (10-2) vs California (7-5)
12/23	Poinsettia	MWC vs Pac-10 #6	Utah (9-3) vs Oregon State (6-6)
12/24	Hawaii	C-USA vs WAC	Fresno State (8-4) vs SMU (7-5)
12/26	Little Caesar's Pizza! Pizza!	Big Ten #7 vs MAC	Boise State (13-0) vs Central Michigan (11-2)
12/26	Meineke Car Care	ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3	West Virginia (9-3) vs Wake Forest (6-6)
12/26	Emerald	ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10	Boston College (8-4) vs Stanford (6-6)
12/27	Music City	ACC #5-7 vs SEC	Auburn (7-5) vs North Carolina (7-5)
12/28	Independence	Big 12 vs SEC	Ole Miss (7-5) vs Texas A&M (7-5)
12/29	EagleBank	ACC #8 vs Army	Temple (9-4) vs Central Florida (6-6)
12/29	Champs Sports	ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5	Virginia Tech (9-3) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30	Humanitarian	MWC vs WAC	Idaho (8-4) vs Air Force (7-5)
12/30	Holiday	Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2	USC (10-2) vs Oklahoma (8-4)
12/30	Texas	Big 12 #8 vs Navy	Navy (8-5) vs Iowa State (7-5)
12/31	Armed Forces	C-USA vs MWC	Tulsa (7-5) vs Colorado State (6-6)
12/31	Sun	Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3	Missouri (9-3) vs Arizona (7-5)
12/31	Insight	Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6	Kansas (6-6) vs UCLA (6-6)
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	ACC #2 vs SEC	Georgia Tech (11-2) vs Arkansas (8-4)
1/1	Outback	Big Ten #3 vs SEC	Ohio State (9-3) vs Georgia (7-5)
1/1	Capital One	Big Ten #2 vs SEC	Wisconsin (10-2) vs Tennessee (8-4)
1/1	Gator	ACC #3 vs Big East/ND	Miami-FL (10-2) vs Notre Dame (9-3)
1/1	Rose	BCS vs BCS	Iowa (11-1) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1	Sugar	BCS vs BCS	Alabama (12-1) vs Penn State (11-1)
1/2	International	Big East vs MAC	Northern Illinois (7-5) vs UConn (6-6)
1/2	PapaJohns.com	Big East vs SEC	Kentucky (6-6) vs Southern Miss (6-6)
1/2	Cotton	Big 12 #2 vs SEC	Nebraska (9-4) vs LSU (8-4)
1/2	Liberty	C-USA #1 vs SEC	Houston (11-2) vs South Carolina (6-6)
1/2	Alamo	Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5	Oklahoma State (8-4) vs Michigan (6-6)
1/4	Fiesta	BCS vs BCS	TCU (12-0) vs Cincinnati (11-1)
1/5	Orange	BCS vs BCS	Pittsburgh (10-2) vs Clemson (10-3)
1/6	GMAC	ACC #9 vs MAC	Middle Tennessee (9-3) vs Ohio (8-4)
1/7	BCS Championship	BCS #1 vs BCS #2	Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)

Seriously, some FANTASTIC matchups here.

-- Best New Mexico Bowl ever.
-- Boise/CMU really could be fun, though I think Boise would end up winning by 21.
-- Temple's going bowling!!!
-- USC-Oklahoma!
-- Missouri-Arizona could be underrated simply because I'm not sure people realize how well Arizona is playing.
-- Georgia Tech-Arkansas would pit the S&P+'s two favorite offensive teams.
-- Miami-Notre Dame!!
-- Iowa-Oregon would be an interesting contrast, to say the least.
-- Alabama-PSU might not be exciting football, but it would be awesome to see them on the same field, especially at the Sugar Bowl, where they played one of the best games of all-time 31 years ago.
-- TCU-Cincy would be a fun matchup of good defensive teams with underrated offenses.
Minimal awful matchups, really, though you couldn't pay me to watch much of either Ohio State-Georgia or Wisconsin-Tennessee, especially if Miami-Notre Dame was on around the same time.
The Big East really needs a better set of bowl affiliations...guess they've already worked their way toward that for next year.

Hawk Talk: Kansas v. Oklahoma Tailgate Edition

Denverjhawk — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 10:00:20 -0000

A look at news and notes from this week about the Jayhawks and their upcoming game....

The Good Guys...

New faces emerging on the KU defense.
Defensive backups pushing Jayhawk defensive starters.
Coach Mangino wants to see improvement on special teams.
Kansas offense looks to get things going earlier.
A wild race for the north is on.
More on the Kansas defensive changes.
McDougald will see minutes on both sides of the ball for Kansas.
Sharp struggled with time away from the field.
OU Defense to be a tough test for the KU offense.
Kansas needs to capitalize against a hobbled OU squad.
KU v OU Preview

The Bad Guys...

OU at Kansas: Breaking down the matchups
How the Oklahoma offensive line turnover led to Sam Bradfords injury woes.
Landry Jones has learned through trial by fire this year.

Denver's Take...

Well after last week pretty much everything I thought to be true is out the window. Kansas dropping one on the road to Colorado wasn't part of the plan at the beginning of the season, it just wasn't supposed to happen. Kansas needed to sweep the North with the expectation that there was just no way they would be able to pull of either Oklahoma or Texas, right?

Well Oklahoma wasn't supposed to be 3-3 either. They weren't supposed to lose Jermaine Gresham, Sam Bradford, possibly Demarco Murray and they weren't supposed to have this much trouble replacing such a dominant offensive line from a year ago, right?

A lot has changed since August and while Oklahoma is still a damn good team and has a defense that will challenge the Kansas offense as much as anyone this season, it isn't the same Oklahoma we thought it would be.

The Jayhawks are coming off a loss the Sooners are coming off a loss and something has to give in Lawrence. Is this the year Kansas get's over the hump? Is this the year that Mangino finally wins one against his former employer?

I'm having a hard time picking Kansas after the last two weeks, but for some reason, possibly just hope...I think they can do it. Back at home and coming off a major wakeup call the Jayhawks are going to surprise some folks and play as well as they have all year. The defense will begin to settle in after the changes that were made following Iowa State and the offense get's things going a little earlier than expected. While I certainly don't expect the Kansas offense to run wild or the Kansas defense to stiffle a tough OU offense, I think we get just enough to make this one interesting.

No final score prediction this week but I have to remain loyal to my team and say Kansas wins this one in a squeeker. Some might see this as optimistic, but if I'm not a believer, who will be. Rock Chalk, enjoy the game and let's turn the Big 12 North race upside down once again, but this time in the right way.

COUPLE QUICK NOTES: A few notable changes this week on the depth chart. John Williams is listed 1st at DT over Richard Johnson Jr. Huldon Tharp has jumped Arist Wright at the WLB spot.

Also, that unfamiliar face we all saw in the backfield with Reesing last week should be at it again. Possibly even flying solo. Another quick question...if Kansas were to run something like the wildcat, what would you call it?

More Notes and Things to Look for After the Jump...

1-2-3-3-3 -- WR Dezmon Briscoe is leading the nation in receiving yards per game (134.20), WR Kerry Meier is second in receptions (9.00) and QB Todd Reesing is third in passing yards (330.00), completions (27.17) and total offense (340.17). In all, Jayhawks are in the top 10 nationally in eight different individual statistical categories.

KU-OU SERIES -- Oklahoma leads the all-time series 67-27-6, including a 30-14-3 advantage in games played at Lawrence. The Sooners have won five straight in the series since KU won three straight from 1995-97. Oklahoma is making its first trip to Lawrence since 2001 as the teams played in Norman in 2004 and 2008 and in Kansas City in 2005.

KU-OU HISTORICAL NOTE -- The 96 straight games KU and OU played against each other from 1903-97 ranks as the nation's fifth-longest uninterrupted series. The streak was stopped for Big 12 scheduling. This year's meeting is the 101st in the series.

KU-OU LAST YEAR -- Despite a record-breaking performance by KU WR Dezmon Briscoe, No. 16 Kansas lost 45-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma on Oct. 11. Briscoe caught what was then a school record 12 passes for what still is a school best 269 yards and two touchdowns. The 269 yards were the most in a game in the NCAA last year. QB Todd Reesing was 24 of 41 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. RB Jake Sharp ran 12 times for 103 yards and a touchdown. KU put up 491 yards of offense, but the Sooners ran up 674, including 468 passing. KU trailed just 31-24 early in the third quarter before Oklahoma scored two touchdowns to lead 45-24 with 12:02 left.

KU-OU LAST TIME AT LAWRENCE -- As mentioned Oklahoma has not played at Lawrence since the 2001 season. Kansas opened the scoring with a Johnny Beck field goal in the first quarter before the Sooners ran up 38 consecutive points before KU scored on a 77-yard pass from Mario Kinsey to Roger Ross with five minutes left. The Sooners won 38-10 behind 151 passing yards and 117 rushing yards from Jason White. Kansas gained just 223 yards, while Oklahoma accumulated 403. KU LB Leo Etienne recorded 18 tackles in the loss.

KU'S OKLAHOMANS -- Kansas has 11 players from the state of Oklahoma including LS Kayl Anderson (Tulsa/Bishop Kelley), PK Jacob Branstetter (Lawton/MacArthur), CB Anthony Davis (Tulsa/East Central),
TE Bradley Dedeaux (Midwest City), CB Chris Harris (Bixby), OL Gavin Howard (Owasso), DE Jake Laptad (Tulsa/Jenks), LB Dakota Lewis (Sulphur), RB Rell Lewis (Muskogee), OL Michael Martinovich (Tulsa/Cascia Hall Prep), and DT John Williams (Tulsa/Washington).

MORE KU-OU CONNECTIONS -- KU Head Coach Mark Mangino was an assistant coach at Oklahoma from 1999-2001, serving as the offensive coordinator in 2000 and 2001... KU TE Coach Brandon Blaney was a GA at Oklahoma in 1999 and 2000... KU Director of Strength and conditioning Chris Dawson was a LB at Oklahoma from 1992-94 and was a GA at OU in 1995 and an assistant strength and conditioning
coach from 1996-2000

THINGS TO LOOK FOR AGAINST OKLAHOMA

KU has scored at least 30 points in eight straight games dating back to last year.
KU has produced at least 400 yards of total offense in eight games in a row.
Reesing has thrown for 400 yards in two straight games.
WR Kerry Meier has recorded at least 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in three straight games.
Meier has at least one touchdown catch in four straight games.
Meier (1,904) needs 96 yards to become the fourth KU player to record 2,000 career receiving yards.
Briscoe has recorded at least 100 receiving yards in eight of the last nine games.
S Darrell Stuckey has recorded double-digit tackle totals in two straight games.

WR DUO IS COUNTRY'S BEST -- The wide receiver duo of Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier is the most potent in the country.

Combined 18.34 receptions per game lead the NCAA.
Combined 230.87 receiving yards per game lead the NCAA.
Combined 42 career touchdown receptions are most among active duos in the NCAA.
Briscoe leads the NCAA in receiving yards per game (134.20).
Meier is second in the NCAA in receptions per game (9.00).
Through six games the two have combined for eight 100-yard games, four double-digit reception games and 10 touchdown catches.
On the KU career record charts they rank first (Briscoe) and fifth (Meier) in yards, first (Meier) and second (Briscoe) in receptions, first (Briscoe) and fourth (Meier) in touchdown receptions, first (Briscoe) and second (Meier) in 100-yard games.
On the KU single-game record lists they own the top seven single-game receptions marks (Meier holds top mark of 16 vs. Iowa State this year) and two of top five single-game yardage marks (Briscoe is first and fifth).

MID-SEASON BREAKDOWN

Here are a few notes about Kansas at the midway point of the season:

Kansas owns a 5-1 record, winning at least five of its first six games for the third straight year and third time in its Big 12 history.
KU's 503 total offensive yards per game are on pace for school record (479.8 in 2007).
KU's 347 passing yards per game are on pace for school record (305.6 in 2008).
KU's 156 rushing yards per game are 30 more per game than last season.
KU's 38 points per game are second only to the 42.7 scored in 2007.
On defense KU is allowing 346 total yards per game, 50 yards fewer than last season.
KU has recorded 19 sacks after getting 29 in 13 games last year.
QB Todd Reesing should become the first player to lead KU in passing in three straight years since Chip Hilleary in 1990-92.

SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable -- What Was That? Edition

TB — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:10:44 -0000

via assets.sbnation.com

This week, BOTC jumped in to host the Big 12 Roundtable. Questions and answers are below, and the recap post will be coming soon.

Though not true of everyone -- Texas continued its "just take care of business" approach -- Saturday shook a lot assumptions we had about some teams. What, if anything, can you say with confidence about your team?

BracketCat: I can say nothing with confidence regarding the 2009 Kansas State Wildcats. We lost to a team 66-14 and then beat a team 62-14 eight days later. That's a 100-point swing. It's the very definition of schizophrenic. Confidence doesn't even begin to enter the equation. Just strap in, hold on to something and enjoy the ride, Cat fans.

TB: Daniel Thomas is really good. The defense is generally getting better, although they'll still have their moments (or games) against teams like Texas Tech. Brandon Banks is a threat everytime he takes a kickoff. You'll notice there's nothing in here about overall team results or anything of the kind. That's because we never have any idea what the pieces will ad up to.

Two weeks ago, we discussed whether the divide between K-State, Iowa State and Colorado and the rest of the conference was widening. After the North's total faceplant in "referendum" weekend, do we need to ask if the gap between the divisions is continuing to widen?

BracketCat: Nah, we (the blogging world) don't need to ask. The media will do that for us plenty. I think it's clear that it isn't narrowing, though. However, I would rephrase it slightly. Instead of the North-South gap, it's more like the Oklahoma-Texas-Texas Tech vs. everybody-else gap. Those three are so far ahead of everyone else, even Oklahoma State, that it's stunning.

And it doesn't figure to get any better this week. Although Kansas hosts Oklahoma and Missouri hosts Texas, and some fans of both schools are thinking "upset," it's important to remember than Bob Stoops and Mack Brown are a collective 21-0 in the week following the Red River ~~Shootout~~ Rivalry. Sorry, Jayhawks and Tigers -- it ain't happening.

TB: It's clearly not getting any narrower. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are not national title contenders this year, and both showed they are clearly better than two of the top three or four teams in the North this year. It will be interesting to see how Oklahoma plays against K-State, Nebraska, and KU this season. If, despite being mired in its worst season since before Bob Stoops took over, the Sooners still run roughshod over these three opponents, we may have reason to despair for the North.

Speaking of that question two weeks ago, does yesterday's 3-0 showing by the three teams originally discussed -- K-State, Iowa State, and Colorado -- change your answer to that question, or was it just a random weekend where those three teams beat teams who weren't as good as we thought?

BracketCat: Well, Kansas definitely isn't as good as most people thought, but I don't know what people saw there -- I saw this coming weeks ago when the Jayhawks were giving up chunks of yardage to Duke and Southern Miss. Although Iowa State let almost-certain victory slip through its fingers, I knew it was only a matter of time before the serious losing began in Lawrence.

Baylor and Texas A&M are awful. It's not totally Baylor's fault, given the injury to Robert Griffin, but I thought the rest of the team would play better than they have, even in his absence. I was wrong. Frankly, the Bears lost their bowl bid when they lost to Connecticut in September. There's no margin for error for a scrub team in the Big 12; you have to go 4-0 in the non-conference when you schedule like Baylor did.

As for Texas A&M, any last, lingering shred of respect I might have had for Mike Sherman (and that really wasn't any, don't worry) disappeared quickly on Saturday between raucous peals of laughter. Each Wildcat touchdown seemed to add 70 worry lines to his already craggy face. Oh, wow, what a train wreck Bill Byrne has on his hands down there.

So, my roundabout point is that it's not like Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State suddenly flipped a magic switch that makes them "contendas." But at the same time, anyone who knows anything about football could see steady, sometimes surprising improvement from week to week in Ames and Manhattan (excepting the Texas Tech setback, of course).

And as for Colorado, it's probably too late to salvage the season, but Tyler Hansen always was the best choice for that job. The worrisome sign for Colorado's long-term future is that it took Dan Hawkins this long to realize it.

TB: It's too soon to make any long-term conclusions from that, just like it was too soon to make any long-term conclusions two weeks ago. As I've always maintained, it's rare that teams are so far gone they can't get back up again within a few years, and no team is immune from hiring the wrong coach and going into a tailspin. However, last weekend did show fairly conclusively that it was premature to consider K-State, ISU and CU the obvious choices for the conference cellar, although the evidence at the time was pretty favorable for such a conclusion.

Next weekend, we see an interesting matchup of suddenly desperate teams in Lawrence, Kansas. Which team needs that game worse? Oklahoma, to show that they're not going to pack it in and have a disastrously bad season, or KU, to show that they are still in the running for the North division?

BracketCat: Oklahoma, without question. You are the University of Oklahoma, winners of eight national championships. You cannot lose to a basketball school and confer upon them any sort of legitimacy, no matter how undeserved.

Besides, Kansas can lose this game and still win the North. If you have to lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to a North team, Colorado probably is the one to do it against. 5-3 easily should win this division, but Kansas now is in a situation where it has to knock off one of the "Big Three" to get there, and Mark Mangino is 0-fer against those schools.

By the way, it's disgusting that the Jayhawks basically got to play OU twice without Blake Griffin, and now get the Sooners without Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham. F*** that. At least Ryan Broyles is healthy.

TB: I'm going with KU here. Before the season, it was pretty clear that KU had to run the table in the North to take the division (History awaits...), because we figured 6-2 would win the North outright and 5-3 would probably tie. Barring a complete disaster for the North, I still see the winner being 5-3, so 4-4 won't do it. Because they dropped one against a North team, they have to make that up against a South opponent, and suddenly OU looks like the best candidate. We know KU's defense will put up less resistance than the French against Tech's onslaught, and the beakers' trip to Austin will likely rank among some of the all-time horror movies.

I also choose KU because I don't think OU's coaches, players, or fans really draw much of a distinction between a 9-3 season in which they don't even win the division and a 6-6 season. If they're not winning at least the division title -- and they won't now, because I can't see UT losing two games in this conference -- they'll play for a little pride and that's about it. They don't need this game for anything. KU does.

After a low-scoring, fumble-ridden -- I seriously think the guys on the sidelines handling the footballs were eating fried butter from the Texas State Fair, thus greasing the pigskin -- win in the Red River Shootout, Texas has continued its "just win, baby" season. You're on the spot, right now: Do the Longhorns play for the national title in Pasadena this January?

BracketCat: Probably not. I can't see that team making it through Big 12 play unscathed, although I also can't point to a specific game and say, "They will lose this one." Texas Tech? Already beat 'em. Oklahoma State? Every other year, I think, "This is the year Texas loses in Stillwater," and every time, they survive. Anyone else remember that crazy Halloween game with Vince Young? OSU probably is too flaky to win in two weeks. Missouri? Not unless Blaine Gabbert magically heals this week, and probably not even then.

The telling thing to me is that the computer rankings in the BCS formula reflect the undominating nature of Texas' wins. The Longhorns are ranked 7th in the computer composite, behind fellow unbeatens Boise State, Cincinnati and Iowa. Frankly, those schools might have a better shot at playing for an MNC, too. As the pollsters continue to promote Alabama and punish Texas based on "style points," those computer rankings will get closer and closer to reality.

TB: Yes, I think Texas will be in Pasadena for the MNC game. Only two stumbling blocks remain. First is the Halloween matchup in Stillwater with Oklahoma State. Second is the "ahh, we're just playing [insert piddly North team like K-State in 2006 or 2007 here] today, we don't even have to try" type of game from Texas. It's possible Will Muschamp would murder someone on the sidelines rather than let that kind of game happen, and thus I think the Horns will make it through the conference slate unscathed, thus assuring a title game appearance.

6. Power Poll -- Rank 'em according to who you think would win at a neutral site

BracketCat:

1. Texas -- Is this team really the best one the Big 12 can field this year? Sad...
2. Texas Tech -- Is there any doubt? Mack Brown better be thanking his sweet Lord that he faced the Red Raiders before Steven "Sticks and Gloves May Break My Bones, But Pirate Growls Will Never Hurt Me" Sheffield ascended to glory. Otherwise, I think Texas Tech would be making plans for its first-ever trip to the conference championship game.
3. Nebraska -- OK, ranking them No. 1 was a little premature, I admit. But Texas Tech is going to make a lot of teams look stupid from here on out; hell, they'll probably hang 70 on KU. Ndamukong Suh makes this team a threat to dominate any offense other than the Air Raid, quarterback controversy or no QB controversy, and the schedule makes the Huskers the North favorite... for now.
4. Oklahoma -- Oh, Sam Bradford, we hardly knew ye. Get well and go dominate the League, buddy. Oh, and ranked at 3-3? Must be nice to be the popular kid.
5. Oklahoma State -- Meh. The most unintimidating 5-1 team I can remember in a long time. But they're flying under the radar for now, and Halloween beckons...
6. Kansas -- Better enjoy this spot while it lasts, Squawks. With Oklahoma and Texas Tech ahead, your defense is about to be exposed like a stripper. In your case, that would be Chippendale's, right?
7. Missouri -- Mizzou might be a better team than Kansas, if Blaine Gabbert was healthy. For now, Todd Reesing and his two amigos give the Hawks the edge.
8. Kansas State -- Quite the jump from last week, eh? OK, I admit I might have overreacted slightly to the Lubbock debacle. But the Kool-Aid is flowing freely now, and as long as this team doesn't beat itself, it's fully capable of continuing to improve, and possibly even winning out at home, to get to a bowl game and challenge for the North.
9. Iowa State -- Man, Paul Rhoads has to be a nice surprise for the Cyclone faithful. Gene who?
10. Colorado -- Yes, it was a good win. But you're still a 2-4 team. I can't get that Toledo game out of my head. How did that defense sack Reesing five times? I still think midnight will toll for Cinderella sooner or later. Maybe sooner, because while I can picture Colorado players partying all week with various substances like they just won the Super Bowl, I am 100-percent positive Bill Snyder already has his team forgetting the Texas A&M win and simply "sawing wood" in preparation for Saturday's homecoming game.
11. Baylor -- Welp, sucks to be you. Reboot and try again next season.
12. Texas A&M -- This spot automatically is reserved for any team that loses a conference game by more than 40 points. Your turn in the barrel, Aggies.

TB:

1. Texas -- As I said, just win, baby.
2. Oklahoma State -- Surely they're too depleted to hang on to this spot...right?
3. Texas Tech -- Look, Mike, I love having you in this conference for the quotes alone, but it is the system. No shame in that.
4. Oklahoma -- If they pack it in, they'll descend quickly, but I can't drop them too far despite three losses. All three losses have been very close games against at least solid competition.
5. Nebraska -- Suh and the defense will keep them in every game this season, but they can't score. If you think Cody Green is the answer, you should have seen some of his high school games last year. He's got the tools, but he's not ready yet.
6. Missouri -- Get the nod here based on having played better competition in conference.
7. KU -- I can't count them out of the North race yet, but they're already on life support. They must win against OU this weekend.
8. K-State -- Mea culpa, readers. I overreacted last week. Perhaps I overreacted again this week, but we'll hope not. If the Cats can pick up a home win over Colorado, they may have enough momentum to shock the world and pick up enough wins for a bowl game.
9. Iowa State -- Paul Rhoads is doing a good job in Ames. The Cyclones will mutter about those losses to K-State and KU if they miss a bowl by finishing 5-7 this year.
10. Colorado -- Rapidly improving now that Dan Hawkins finally was beaten into the realization that his son is not the answer at quarterback. Game in Manhattan will set the tone for the rest of the season.
11. Texas A&M -- Sometimes, it just isn't your half-decade.
12. Baylor -- Same old Bears.

Injured Gronkowski considering NFL Draft

Mocking Dan — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:42:27 -0000

Arizona junior tight end Rob Gronkowski might be out for the season following back surgery, but that hasn't stopped him from thinking about his NFL future.

He met with the media Wednesday and said he might consider entering the 2010 NFL Draft.

"It would definitely have to be the first round, else I won't go at all," Gronkowski told reporters.

Most expected the talented Gronkowski to enter the draft following this season. He has good size at 6-foot-6 and 258 pounds and is just as athletic as he is physical. With 47 receptions for 672 yards last season, he showed excellent hands and good route-running ability.

Gronkowski was considered by me to be the second best tight end prospect in the nation after Oklahoma's Jermaine Gresham. Also out for the season, Gresham has said he's entering the draft.

After undergoing surgery on a herniated disk and nerve damage in his back three weeks ago, it takes about three months to fully recover.

The likely scenario for Gronkowski is that after being fully recovered, Arizona would invite in some impartial scouts to watch him work out. They can then evaluate him and tell him what kind of round projection he'd get.

That would allow Gronkowski to determine if he'll participate in the NFL Scouting Combine and enter the draft.

"I'm going to definitely look into the NFL -- you've always got to look at that option," he said. "If I don't like what I get back, I'm definitely going to come back."

NFL Draft scouting report: Jermaine Gresham

Mocking Dan — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 01:15:36 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Browse more photos »

Jermaine Gresham

6'6, 262 pounds | Oklahoma | Tight end

Positives: Gresham is a good all-around tight end. He runs good routes and is an able blocker. He's able to go over the short middle with confidence but has enough speed to get down the seam.

Has a great frame for an NFL tight end. Gresham is strong throughout his body ad looks like his can get even stronger. Uses his size nicely as a jump-ball target and to shield off defenders. A perfect red zone target.

Very hard to take down after the catch. Gresham won't outrun a lot of opponents, but he can certainly run them over. Shows a lot of effort.

Negatives: There are some questions about Gresham's hands. He doesn't always extend to make the catch and has a tendency to let the ball get into his body. Against more instinctive defenders, the ball will get knocked away.

He's at his best when he splits out so he'll have to improve his release technique when he has his hand down. Needs to play more physical (see the 2008 Texas game where he was manhandled by Sergio Kindle).

Missed his entire senior season after suffering cartilage damage in his knee. Some of Gresham's draft stock will be incumbent on how well he can go through speed and agility tests at the NFL Scouting Combine. Gresham was a starter for just one season.

Final word: Even with his injury, Gresham is the top senior tight end in the nation by a wide margin. He was the ultimate safety valve for quarterback Sam Bradford because he can get open quickly and goes over the middle with ease.

Had he come out in the 2009 NFL Draft, Gresham may have been a first-round pick. He's more or less a prototype tight end prospect who could start immediately. Gresham compares favorably to Jason Witten of the Cowboys.

In his only season as a starter, Gresham had 66 receptions for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns. As a sophomore, he had 37 receptions for 518 yards and 11 touchdowns.

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