SB Nation - Trent Williams

Breaking Down Bedlam

ccmachine — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 08:16:33 -0000

There are so many things that could go right or wrong for Oklahoma in today's Bedlam football game that I really have no idea what to expect. On one hand you consider how well the Sooners play at home and you think that they have an outstanding chance to win. Then you consider how bad they've played in their five losses and add the fact that the competition at home hasn't been that great and suddenly there's a huge knot in your stomach because you realize the realistic possibility that the nation's longest home winning steak very well could come to an end.

The roles are already reversed coming into the game. O-State is the ranked team with a shot at going to a BCS Bowl. Regardless of what the final score is the Cowboys are going to finish ahead of the Sooners in the Big 12 standings and will get a better bowl invitation. The only thing left to happen is for OSU to actually win the game and they come in as a legitimate favorite and for OU to avoid losing their sixth game of the season they must win one of the game match-ups that they're not supposed to.

Quarterbacks

Landry Jones is completing 58% of his passes this year and has 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. At times he's look exceptional and then at other moments he's look completely out of his element. The knocks against him are that he's not stable in the pocket and doesn't read through his progressions.

Zac Robinson has completed 63% of his passes with a touchdown to interception ration of 15 to 7. Robinson is a dual-threat quarterback who has rushed for 302 yards this year but has also been known for turning the ball over on a big hit when he runs.

Robinson's experience and leadership give him a clear advantage over Jones but there's the chance that he may not play due to injury or that he'll be playing at less than 100%.

Advantage: OSU

Running Backs

Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray are averaging 4.3 and 4.4 yards respectfully with 12 touchdowns between them but they are a far cry from the dynamic duo that we saw them become last season. After rushing for over 1,000 each last season the two have a combined 1,251 yards this year. The problem has been getting them in space to make plays and clearing holes for them to run in between the tackles. That's on the line and not necessarily the running backs.

Keith Toston is the Big 12's second leading rusher with 1,130 yards. He's averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has crossed the goal line rushing the football 11 times. He's a powerful runner with good speed and is one of only two players (KSU's Daniel Thomas) to average over 100 yards rushing per game.

Toston has clearly had the better season of these three backs and despite Murray having the added dimension of being Oklahoma's second leading receiver the Sooners don't have a rushing threat like Toston has been this season.

Advantage: OSU

Receivers/Tight Ends

Ryan Broyles is one of the most electrifying receivers in the country. He's averaging 12.9 yards per reception and has 861 yards with 12 touchdowns. He's on target to break 1,000 receiving yards this season and it would go a long way for the Sooners if he surpassed that mark today. Behind Broyles is a massive drop off as Brandon Caleb has almost 40 fewer receptions and only 2 touchdowns. Dejuan Miller is coming on and is has pretty much inserted himself as Oklahoma's #2 receiver.

O-State was dealt a huge blow when the NCAA took Dez Bryant away from them. Since then Hubert Anyiam has become the Pokes' top receiver. He's caught 39 passes for 482 yards and 3 touchdowns.

After Anyiam the Cowboys don't have another receiver playing in this game with more than 15 receptions. Conversely the Sooners have four receivers with more than 20 receptions. What's a tight end?

Advantage: OU

Offensive Line

I don't have the words to describe how disappointing Oklahoma's offensive line has been this season. Now this unit has become decimated with injuries and literally a walking triage unit. The latest victim is Trent Williams who may have to sit out today's Bedlam game due to a head injury. Oklahoma has given up 12 sacks this season.

Oklahoma State has only given up 7 sacks this year and is much stronger in both run and pass blocking than the Sooners are. The have a future NFL All-Pro in Russell Okung as their anchor.

Advantage: OSU

Defensive Line

Oklahoma's defensive line against OSU's offensive line is the match-up that could determine the game. Jeremy Beal is third in the conference in sacks with 11 and third in tackles for loss with 16. Gerald McCoy is fifth in the Big 12 in tackles for loss with 14.5.

Ugo Chinasa has 4 sacks for the Pokes and 6.5 tackles for loss. However, you have to go all the way down to 11^th O-States leader board for tackles to find Chinasa, a defensive lineman, listed.

Advantage: OU

Linebackers

Travis Lewis is third in the Big 12 in total tackles with 99 and Keenan Clayton is 39^th with 58. Oklahoma will be without Ryan Reynolds who is a field general for the Sooners defense and that may hurt the Sooners more than missing his 67 tackles. In his place Austin Box will step in and try to get a head start on taking over the middle linebacker position full time next season.

Donald Booker leads the Cowboys in sacks with 5 and tackles for loss with 7. He and Patrick Lavine lead the team in tackles with 80 and 67 tackles respectively. Lavine also leads the team in interceptions with 5.

Both team's linebacker units attack down hill and are solid run stuffers. O-State is second in the conference against the rush (82.6 yards per game) and the Sooners are third (91 yards per game)

Advantage: Even

Secondary

Oklahoma is second in the conference against the pass by holding opponents to just 197.5 yards per game. The OU secondary has a combined 11 interceptions led by Brian Jackson's 4. Jackson and Dominique Franks are one of the best corner duos in the conference and safety Quinton Carter is a hard hitter who's second on the team in tackles with 76.

Perrish Cox is not only the best athlete in Oklahoma State's secondary he's most likely the best athlete on the team. He has 32 tackles and 4 interceptions but as a whole the Cowboys are 9^th in the conference in pass defense.

Advantage: OU

Special Teams

Oklahoma State is last in the Big 12 in kickoff return average (18.6 yards per return) and while the Sooners aren't sitting pretty at #10 (21.2 yards per return) at least they're not last. Punt returns are a different issue for the Sooners where their 14.3 yards per return average are tops in the Big 12. OSU isn't too far behind at 13.9 yards per return which places them 3^rd in the Big 12.

In punting average the Sooners have a 39.6 (Best in the Big 12) to 37.5 advantage. Oklahoma's place kickers have missed seven field goal attempts this season while the Cowboys have missed five.

If this game becomes a field goal kicking contest then I'm not sure that I like Oklahoma's chances. However, in the battle for field position OU's special teams units are outperforming O-State's in just about every category.

Advantage: OU

Aggie On Deck!

ccmachine — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:31:38 -0000

by JACK DEMPSEY - AP

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In preparation for tomorrow night's tilt against Texas A&M we've invited Beergut from SBN's Texas A&M site, I Am The 12^th Man to join us and share some insight on the Aggies and this week's game.

CC Machine: How bad did the Colorado loss hurt and what the heck happened to cause it?

BG: It always hurts to lose a game you think you should win, especially when you manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like we did. When you enter the 4th quarter with a 10 point lead, you should win the game, and we made enough mistakes in the 4th to lose it. The game hurts us in that we could have been riding a 3-game winning streak coming into Norman tomorrow; instead, we're coming off a disappointing loss. Coach Sherman says he tries to approach every win and loss the same, because you always have to move on and prepare for the next game. The Colorado loss removes out margin of error concerning bowl eligibility, because a win there would have been our sixth, and guaranteed postseason play for our team. Now, we will face three teams in a span of twelve days to play our way into bowl eligibility; we can expect to be favored in only one of those games, so we have our work cut out for us. We lost to Colorado because we failed to stop them on defense in the 4th quarter, and we turned the ball over twice, once on offense and once on special teams. We failed to do the little things that help you win games, like protect the football, and that is why we lost the game. Coach Sherman always talks about treating wins and losses the same, because you have to acknowledge the effort, correct mistakes, and move on. Hopefully, we'll be able to move on and play a complete game on Saturday.

CC Machine: Mike Sherman coached the Aggies to new lows last season and has them on the doorstep of bowl eligibility this year. Are you putting all your eggs in the Baylor basket or is it possible that A&M could finish better than 1-2 over the final three games?

BG: I don't think our program can ever go any lower than what Dennis Franchione put it through during the 2003 season. Regardless, there is a good possibility we can win two of our final three games, since we play two of those games at home. Ranked #2 or not, texas has struggled against us the last three years, going 1-2, with a loss in Austin in 2006 and a blowout loss in College Station in '07. texas fans like to talk about all the similarities between this year and 2005; one they probably don't want to remember his how bad their team struggled in College Station that year, and how Vince Young's Heisman hopes disappeared in a pile of turnovers, as he was sacked three times, fumbled twice, and intercepted once. We'll get a chance to see how our offense performs against a stellar defense when we face your defense Saturday; that should be a good litmus test for us, because your defensive front is better than anything texas has.

CC Machine: Bob Stoops is 9-1 against the Aggies and the Sooners haven't lost a game in this series since 2002. How is this game going to be different from the past six seasons?

BG: I think it should be pointed out that for five of those nine games, we were at a severe coaching disadvantage because you had Bob Stoops and we had Dennis Franchione. When we actually had a defensive mastermind who could match Stoops (R.C. Slocum) and an offensive coach to combat your defense (Kevin Sumlin), we upset y'all in 2002. Our problems lately have been that OU generally has more talent across the board than we field, although we're closing that gap under Sherman. I think this year might be different because we field a better offense than we've fielded in a while, but we are playing y'all in Norman, which is a tough place to play, period.

CC Machine: Jerrod Johnson has been spectacular at quarterback this season but the Aggies seem to have struggled at the receiver position. Is that a fair assessment and has there been improvement there?

BG: I'm really not sure where you're getting the impression our wide receivers have struggled this season; we've passed for more yards (2637 to 2464) than OU has this year, and we're currenty third in the Big 12 in passing offense; simply put, we can fling the rock, and we have players who can catch it, too. We have six receivers with twenty or more receptions, and we're led by Ryan Tannehill, who is our main target on third down, and Uzoma Nwachukwu, who averages a nice 20.6 yards per reception. Our TE, Jamie McCoy, has 27 receptions on the season despite also playing H-Back and Fullback, and running the ball. Far from being a weakness, wide receiver as a position is a team strength.

CC Machine: Keys to success - Give us three keys to an Aggie victory tomorrow night.

BG: 1. Keep Jerrod upright.

The Sooner defensive front seven is terrific, and you'll be able to get pressure on Jerrod Johnson. If our offensive line can give him time, he'll be able to find open receivers and move our offense down the field. If our offensive line can open some holes so we can move the ball on the ground, especially with Jerrod moving around and scrambling, we should be able to move the ball down the field and score some points.

2. Let your stars make big plays.

Get the ball into the hands of our playmakers, like Nwachukwu, RBs Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, and TE Jamie McCoy. If we spread the ball around and allow our players to make plays, we'll be successful on offense.

3. Von Miller needs to have a good game.

Trent Williams versus Von Miller might be the key matchup of the game. If Williams is able to control Miller, I'm not sure we'll be able to get much pressure on Landry Jones. If Miller can get to Jones a few times, and put some pressure on him, that will help our defense. It would also be nice if we could be stout against your running game, but one thing at a time here.

Tight end? What the heck is that and why don't we have one?

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 15:42:51 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

2 months ago: LSU wide receiver Brandon LaFell (1) gets away from Louisiana-Lafayette linebacker Devon Lewis-Buchanan in the second half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. LSU defeated Louisiana-Lafayette 31-3. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

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• Even though they don't face off against each other, being on the same field could be enough to raise the gameplay of both Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy. Both are top five talents, but Suh is considered the better player by most.

One of the most disappointing players for me this season has been Oklahoma left tackle Trent Williams. He's showed he's a better player on the right side, which he played previously in his career. He could be given some trouble against Nebraska end Pierre Allen, a relentless player who doesn't quit until the whistle blows.

• Don't look now but Florida's Carlos Dunlap has four sacks in the last two games. He brutalized a bad Mississippi State team on Oct. 24 but has been pretty pedestrian this season. If he doesn't have a strong game against Vanderbilt, expect more dissenters to emerge.

• Pittsburgh quarterback Bill Stull has been gaining a good bit of attention as a draftable prospect. He's had an average career but is putting together a great season. If he can stay composed against Syracuse's front four, he could have another banner day.

• Entering the season, LSU wide receiver Brandon LaFell was considered the best senior wide receiver in the nation and a first round player. While the latter is still true, it's not a guarantee he gets taken in the first 32 picks. Alabama's cornerbacks, Kareem Jackson and Javier Arenas, are the best LSU will see this season. To improve his stock, LaFell needs to show he can beat physical coverage and make plays in the air.

• Penn State junior Stefen Wisniewski is arguably the best center in the nation. His signal calling will really be put to the test against Ohio State's experienced and crafty defensive line.

Against a very good Penn State offense today, Ohio State strong safety Kurt Coleman can really showcase his all-around skills. He's a borderline NFL starter who can make plays all over the field.

• This could be the day that Cal's Tyson Alualu becomes an early round pick. A gap-shooting high-motor player, Alualu could feast on an Oregon State offensive line that is 101st in the nation in sacks allowed.

• Few talk about him, but Arizona State junior cornerback Omar Bolden is loaded with talent and athleticism. He can get people talking today against USC, which features NFL talent at every starting receiving spot.

• Remember Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan? He of five sacks in the first two games of the year? He's come back on with three sacks in the last four games and could have another banner contest against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons allow a lot of pressure on their quarterbacks and Morgan can take advantage.

• People keep telling me I'm missing the boat on Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis. The senior is clearly having a good season. But let's see what he can do against North Carolina's rush-heavy defense.

Note: I will not be around today. I'll be at the Akron/Kent State game, which starts at 3:30 p.m. With tailgating before that and watching MMA afterward, there won't be time to get online.

It won't be a completely lost day, however. Kent has a couple possible NFL prospects. Tight end Konz Jameson is very athletic and reportedly runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. He's undersized but worth watching. Junior middle linebacker Cobrani Mixon is also worth checking out on the Flashes. He's a Michigan transfer and a great all-around player. By the time today ends, Mixon could have more than 100 tackles on the season.

Season Over For Bradford, Sooners Should Start Looking To 2010

ccmachine — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 02:22:56 -0000

While there is nothing substantial that I can link to, all the indications on Bradford's injury is that it's the same type he suffered against BYU and this time he'll not be returning as Oklahoma's signal caller. So it looks as if we've seen the last of Bradford as a Sooner, or have we?

My feelings on his return have changed completely since his initial injury. After the BYU game I had hoped for a best case scenario and that Bradford would be back as quickly as possible, hoping for the Miami game but definitely the Texas game for sure. Now after seeing him go through the same injury for the second time it's clear that he needs rest and most likely surgery to heal properly.

At this point, with a 3-3 record, the season is a wash and its time to start building for next year. While the Texas team we saw today is no where near a national championship caliber squad its unlikely that they're going to drop two games in conference and leave the door open for OU to return to a fourth consecutive conference championship game. It's even more unlikely that the Sooners are going to run the table to even make that type of scenario even possible! It is what it is and it's a down year for OU football.

Oklahoma now has six games left to get a head start on next season. That's six games to get the offensive line to gel and find a replacement for departing senior Trent Williams. Sox games to find a receiver who can catch the ball period, much less in a clutch situation. Six games to get Landry Jones turned into a seasoned veteran so that he can lead the team next year in Bradford's permanent absence. That is if Bradford is going to be absent.

I know, I know, after the way this season has gone he should be also but Bradford isn't really a dollar and cents type of kid. He's having a good time at OU and while all good things must come to an end Sam has made it clear that he'll choose when it does. Some think that he made a mistake by coming back and that should make it a no brainer that he leaves immediately after this nightmare of a season is over, seeing as how we know what's best for him. Personally I think that he'll call it quits at OU and head on to the NFL and I certainly don't blame him for doing so. If you're going to take a beating you might as well be getting paid for it. As I'm ready to thank him for his contributions to the program and wish him the best at the pro level I just can't shake his answer to one question last Tuesday. When asked if he'd like to have a four year career at Oklahoma like his pal Colt McCoy has had at Texas he indicated that it was at least a possibility.

Texas wins but QBs Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy are draft losers

Mocking Dan — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 20:01:46 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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Find today's draft notes below.

Texas may have won the Red River Rivalry, but quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy may be the real losers.

Bradford's durability was being questioned by evaluators entering the game and re-injuring his shoulder in the first quarter certainly won't quell those concerns. In a recent press conference, the Oklahoma junior quarterback sounded like he was ready for the NFL. But if he's out for another extended amount of time, it's hard to peg him as a top five pick.

Playing in a spread that relies a lot on slants and some on option, McCoy has to play flawlessly every week to be considered a first-round talent. McCoy made several bad throws against the Sooners, tossing an almost critical interception. He has seven on the season. McCoy was quick to pull down the ball and run, something that won't work in the NFL.

On the complete opposite end of things, Oklahoma's Gerald McCoy was phenomenal. Even though Texas tried to run on other side McCoy was lined up at, the junior defensive tackle was dominant. It seemed like he was in the backfield every play. McCoy might be the best player in college football.

Almost as impressive was the play of the Texas secondary. Sophomore cornerback Aaron Williams not only knocked Bradford out of the game on a blitz, but he had a key fourth-quarter interception.

Fellow sophomore Earl Thomas, a strong safety, also made several big plays. He's undersized but playmakers in the secondary come at a premium.

There was a lot of buzz entering this season surrounding Oklahoma's Trent Williams. He switched to left tackle this season and has looked averaged. Against Texas, he was frequently pushed back and struggled mightily when asked to play with his hand down. He's clearly a right tackle prospect.

One Sooner who looked good was running back DeMarco Murray. He showed great ability in the open field on passing plays. He struggled running the ball, but is a good option for a team looking for a second running back.

The Sooners managed to shut down Texas' big play wide receiver Jordan Shipley. They did that by sometimes bracketing a safety over top and other times by being physical on him. He only had four receptions for 22 yards.

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Mocking Dan — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 14:40:59 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

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• Clearly the top matchup of the day is one between Oklahoma and Texas. Quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy will be the main attraction, but watch Sooners left tackle Trent Williams. He's had some struggles moving from the right side this season and will be tested by Texas' Sergio Kindle.

Oklahoma cornerback Dominique Franks is one of the top junior cornerbacks in the nation. He gets overshadowed some by fellow junior Joe Haden. Today he could go head-to-head with Texas senior Jordan Shipley.

• Today could be the day Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen really gets the attention of NFL evaluators. Against USC last season Clausen struggled in the face of pressure. If he plays poised, shows good pocket presence and has completes a high percentage of passes, there's no reason to think Clausen shouldn't challenge Bradford or Jake Locker as the top quarterback among scouts.

If USC's Everson Griffen matches up against Notre Dame's Sam Young, the matchup will be a good one. Young is fairly underrated and has really good size and strength. Griffen is a good all-around pass rusher who has a chance to show what he can do against an NFL-sized left tackle.

• No one is talking about it, but one of best one-on-one contest to watch today is in in the Kentucky/Auburn game. Wildcats middle linebacker Micah Johnson is strong against the run. For the Tigers, running back Ben Tate is one of the most underrated running backs in the nation. Both are third or fourth round talents.

• Going against Georgia's A.J. Green, arguably the best receiver in the country, Vanderbilt cornerback Myron Lewis can boost his stock today. Lewis is a good all-around cornerback, but he doesn't have true No. 1 shutdown skills. He can prove otherwise today.

• Florida has one of the best defensive lines in the country. So today could be a long day for Arkansas senior guard Mitch Petrus. He's one of the better guards in the nation, but gets by mostly on heart and effort. The Gators will be his biggest test of the season.

• Minnesota wide reciever Eric Decker is having a fantastic year. In six games, he has 46 receptions for 689 yards. Penn State sophomore D'Anton Lynn is turning into a shutdown cornerback. Lynn is 6-foot-1, so Decker could be challenged big time today.

• Quarterbacks will be the name of the game in the Central Michigan/Western Michigan contest. Some like Central's Dan LeFevour, who is athletic and mobile. Others prefer Western's Tim Hiller, who is a pure pocket passer. Both have been inconsistent this season and look like third rounders, at best.

• Prediction: Today is the day Ole Miss quarterback Jevan Snead begins to turn his season around. The Rebels play a listless UAB team and Snead could get back on the first-round radar.

The State of Oklahoma: Obligatory Rundown of the Roster

TheElusiveShadow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:47:00 -0000

I narrowed the focus a bit on my previous two posts to look at OU's problems at right tackle and the over-aggressiveness of their linebackers and safeties. It seems that now, before evening comes upon us and we eagerly await the morning, is a good time to broadly address the entire team and discuss what players we can expect to see. If you're curious, here are the previews of the Sooners written earlier in the season or in the preseason:

Linebacker and Safeties

QB, RB, WR, TE

Defensive Line

Offensive Line

As noted in the title, I'll try to keep this brief, but heck, I might just ramble along.

Offense

Quarterback: Bradford looked pretty good against Baylor, although not perfect. He was off on some throws, particularly going high, and he did not look comfortable moving around as PB noted in his podcast. Other than that, I thought his arm motion looked the same and he was able to put good velocity on his throws. Ultimately, the problems OU's offense had against Baylor were not his fault. He better be ready to actually do some moving, though; he does not want to be a statue with Kindle and Acho coming after him.

Runningback: Murray and Brown have done relatively well thus far despite some of the struggles of their offensive line. Brown doesn't have breakaway speed but he is a bit more consistent. Murray is dangerous in the open field and is stronger than people get him credit for (probably because he gets hurt a lot), but he doesn't exactly muscle away from tackles. These guys will likely be the key for the Sooner offense; if they can't run, OU is in deep trouble.

Wide Receiver: The big news is that Ryan Broyles is rumored to be returning tomorrow. It is difficult to tell how much this would help. It is unlikely he will be 100%, and one receiver who is not on the talent level of the likes of A.J. Green and Dez Bryant is not going to transform an entire WR corps. Still, he has been by far their best receiver and it is probably a welcome relief to Bradford. Keep an eye on Dejuan Miller, a big, athletic target who has the physical gifts to be dangerous. Other than that, the Sooners have to rely on mediocre production from Caleb, Kinney, and Tennell.

TE: Eldridge is a decent blocker but slow. Hanna is not scary at all.

Offensive line: As discussed in my post about them, Jarvis Jones and his backup Cory Brandon have stunk it up so far. Left guard Brian Simmons is injured, and while he is not a great player, he's been one of the better ones and he is significantly better than his replacement Stephen Good. Good is, well, not good, despite having the requisite physical tools, and I like our DT's against him. At center is Brian Habern, who is a mediocre blocker himself and definitely should not be able to handle our tackles by himself.

Right guard features Tarvarris Jeffries, who began starting against Miami, and he wasn't good against them or Baylor. I specifically remember him whiffing on a block on a rusher who forced a bad throw from Landry Jones, who had a wide open receiver for a big gain. Jarvis Jones had this job against BYU before going to RT, and he was replaced by Tyler Evans for a bit, who is now the backup. No, he's not good either. Finally, there's the overrated Trent Williams, who is functional but not near the All-American greatness he was hyped to be. Our DE's can take him on the edge.

Defensive Line: Very good, but not as good as it was hyped to be and not as deep as it was supposed to be. Beal has been their best player on their entire defense and has 6 sacks. English has been decent but not particularly disruptive by himself. McCoy and Taylor are a very good DT pair, with McCoy as the more dangerous one by far. Taylor is quick for his size and he can get penetration on single blockers, but he's not McCoy. Demarcus Granger has practically disappeared. And "J-Mike?" Who cares.

Linebackers: Discussed already. Ryan Reynolds should not cover anyone except maybe EBS, who shouldn't be going out on routes anyway.

Secondary: Corners are solid in Brian Jackson and Dominique Franks, though they lack depth here. Jackson does not have top end speed and Franks likes to gamble and can have mental breakdowns, such as when he gave up that long touchdown against Miami. The safeties are nothing special. Carter and Proctor can run in a straight line and hit, but that's about it. Both can bite on fakes due to their aggressiveness.

Special teams: Dominique Franks apparently thinks it's a good idea to return punts inside the five, and successes on such returns against Miami and Baylor might encourage him to do that again. While rugby punting largely makes that a moot point, hopefully he has a brainfart in the return game and gives us a nice gift. He is dangerous, though.

Punt coverage is good, kickoff coverage is so-so, and kickoff returning is not concerning. As far as the kickers, their placekicker is okay and their punter is a good actor. That's about it. We should definitely win the kicking game.

That's all, folks

Brief enough? Oklahoma is going to have to establish the run game, which is easier said than done because while our DEs are the ones getting the attention, I think our DTs give us an advantage as well. Lamarr Houston, anyone? On defense, Oklahoma will need a monster day from their line. Our O-line is not elite, and you can expect some plays for loss at the hands of Beal and McCoy. The issue here is depth; if we have a large TOP advantage like last year, it can get rough for the Sooner D in the 4th quarter.

The onus is on Brent Venables to be smart. If he sits back and dares us to run with umbrella coverage, we might have some problems if we can't run the ball. As PB and Big Roy note, if he decides to blitz, that's a bad idea in the long haul.

As far as Wilson, this might be a game where the no-huddle is a bad idea. He's probably going to have to be a bit more conservative than OU fans will like, but I don't expect too many draw plays on 3rd and long anymore with Bradford back.

Hook'em, and OU sucks. We got this.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

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One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

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Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

The State of Oklahoma: Offensive Line Struggles with Right Tackle Comedians

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:21:40 -0000

When I was watching Oklahoma struggle against a Griffin-less, penalty-loving Baylor team for the better part of three quarters, I laughed and Iaughed. I even started to feel a twinge of overconfidence, especially as pessimism grew among Sooner fans. Whoops. Laughed too soon. Now both sides have had their bouts with doubt and worry after subpar performances against two of the Big 12's weakest teams (Baylor might have been decent with Griffin, to be fair). I don't want to talk about our game against Colorado.

Luckily, I don't have to; I can just ignore our mistakes and focus on OU's struggles, which sure brightens my day. This week, I'm going to discuss a few weaknesses in OU's team and possibly how to exploit them, so I will leave discussion on Okie State's game against A&M for later. Unfortunately, I have a big research paper due on Thursday, but I will do my best to get content up leading up to the game. I will also not limit myself to just their problems; surely their strengths are appropriate to acknowledge as well, but today, we'll look at a problem area. And if one wants to talk about OU's weaknesses, what better place to start than at offensive line?

I rewatched both OU games against Miami and Baylor, and neither viewing improved my opinion on this Oklahoma line. It's just not very good. However, since much has already been said about the offensive line, I'll simply key in on the right tackle position, which has probably been the weakest area so far. Jarvis Jones and Cory Brandon present a favorable matchup for the Longhorns, and it is something you know Muschamp has every intention of exploiting. In this post, I'll focus on the game against the Hurricanes because their athletes are more similar to our own than Baylor's.

"Please don't speed rush me..."

Jones and Brandon like to commit penalties, dive at opposing players' knees, and get burned around the corner. Brandon lost his starting job after a horrible game against BYU, but Jones has not been that large of an upgrade. He basically makes the same mistakes Brandon does in less glaring a fashion and a bit less frequently. Neither player (and arguably OU's entire line) can handle fast, athletic ends coming off the edge. I noted several times where pressure came quickly through the right side against Miami, leading to drive-killing sacks, pressures, or penalties. Run-blocking is better, but nothing to be impressed about.

Example 1:

There's Jarvis Jones, ready...

Uh... that looks bad. Can he at least hold him? Sooner lineman are always good at that.

I guess not...

There's really not a whole lot to analyze here, save to comment on Marcus Robinson's great balance to finish the play. There's no "freaky leg plant,' fancy pass rush move, or confusing blitz; on a four-man rush, Robinson just runs around Jones and then fights to stay on his feet as Jones tries to grab him. This was a big sack because it came on the drive after Harris' second interception. The Sooners could have rocked Miami way back on their heels if they marched right back down for a score like their previous drive. Instead, this helped lead to a punt.

Example 2:

Here's the start of a designed rollout for Landry Jones. Jarvis Jones is circled again.

Allen Bailey has already gotten loose from Jones. To be fair to Jones, the coverage was decent and Demarco Murray threw one heck of a lazy chip. You can see Demarco standing around doing nothing.

Landry Jones is dropped for the sack. To add salt to the wound, the ref calls Jarvis Jones for holding, which is declined.

This play set up third and long, and on the next play, Jones was beaten on the edge again and Landry Jones rushed a throw for an incompletion. OU got lucky because Sean Spence carelessly grabbed the receiver (wasn't much, but enough for the ref to see), but otherwise, this play would have led to a punt.

Example 3:

Later that same drive, here's Jarvis Jones against Marcus Robinson again. Jones is clearly trying to avoid getting burned around the corner again and jumps out to meet Robinson.

Unfortunately for Jones, Robinson stops, uses his arm to slap Jones further along with his momentum, and cuts back inside for a clear path to the quarterback.

Not to be outdone again, Jones hits Robinson low from behind and takes him out, which should have been a penalty but wasn't called.

Jones, scared of the rush off the edge, over-committed and became susceptible to the inside move. He resorted to a move that should have gotten him a 15 yard penalty, which seems common practice for these fellas. Later this drive, Trent Williams would be called for a leg-whip.

Example 4:

Of course, we have to talk at least a little about Cory Brandon. Here, Brandon fails to seal the defender on an outside run and resorts to holding to get Murray free. He is flagged.

Murray's forward progress has been stopped and the play is clearly over, but Brandon wants to hit somebody. For no reason. See him eye his target, the jerk Marcus Robinson who dared to embarrass his teammate.

Brandon flies in after the play is over and bulldozes Robinson straight in the back, knocking the wind out of him for several moments. Brandon, remarkably, is not flagged for this one. Not cool, man.

And finally, early in the fourth quarter, Marcus Robinson put nifty spin move on Jarvis Jones to get around him, only to get tackled from behind. Jones received his third holding penalty then. I'm sure you're sick of pictures so I'll spare you this one.

Conclusion

Sergio Kindle can be moved to this side to create a very favorable matchup; after all, both of Kindle's big hits on Potts and Vittatoe came against right tackles. Kindle (or any of our defensive ends) doesn't really need to worry about Jones or Brandon being able to block him on a regular basis. Not even Trent Williams has shown good ability to handle athletic rushers from the edge. What Kindle will have to watch out for, apparently, are holds, leg whips, blocks at the knees and from behind, and retributive shots to his back. How lovely.

It's not just these two guys who need work, either. Trent Williams has been underwhelming, Brian Simmons is out, Tavaris Jeffries is new and shaky, and Stephen Good, Simmons' probable replacement, got run over by a Baylor DT for a sack. Brian Habern has also had problems, getting planted on his back by another Baylor defensive tackle on one play and struggling with recognizing blitzes. Brody Eldridge can help as a blocking TE, but while he's a decent blocker, I've seen enough mistakes from him to know that he's not the greatest blocker in the Stoops' era. It's certainly a mismatch if Eldridge is asked to block one of our DE's by himself, as he did against Miami.

We have had our own line problems, so I refrain from laughing at Brandon and Jones too much, but Oklahoma just lost a starter and their line wasn't even very good to begin with. Their tackles are slow-footed, their guards are not very strong, and they have problems picking up blitzes. We will do more four-man rushing as Miami did, but Baylor and BYU had success blitzing and it would obviously be prudent to mix similar blitzes in.

Our frustrating offensive performance against Colorado injected some concern in the fanbase, but if there's one major area of confidence, it's here: The right tackles of OU are a big weakness, and it's a weakness we're well-equipped to take advantage of.

2010 NFL mock draft

Mocking Dan — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 14:15:55 -0000

Here is the first half of my mock draft. The other half will go up tonight after I get home from work.

Quick note: I swapped Sam Bradford in the draft for Washington quarterback Jake Locker. The reason was mainly following an email exchange with 3k from Turf Show Times. And listening to Bradford's recent press conference, it sounds like he's ready to go pro.

For the draft order, I used the one put together by ejrulz in his mock draft.

1. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
The Rams have no direction on offense. Taking a quarterback first overall would provide as much. Bradford has only played a half this season, but listening to a recent press conference, he sounds like a man ready to go pro.

2. Cleveland Browns - Eric Berry, SS, Tennessee
The Browns might have Abram Elam currently at strong safety, but Berry looks like a player who comes along once a decade. The Browns need help on the right side of their line, but Berry is hard to pass up.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Whether it's Suh or Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the Buccaneers need help along the defensive line. Suh has been arguably the best player in college football this season and will be a difference maker immediately.

4. Kansas City Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Branden Albert has been only average, and that's not good enough for a left tackle. Bulaga has the ability to be an elite player. If his health checks out fine, there's no reason to think he won't be a top five selection.

5. Tennessee Titans - Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Clearly the Tennessee has skipped a beat this season without Albert Haynesworth. Many considered McCoy an early first rounder had he come out following his redshirt sophomore season. He's a quick, penetrating defensive end with great character.

6. San Francisco 49ers (via Carolina) - Taylor Mays, FS, USC
This is just a great fit for San Francisco. He's the physical presence the team doesn't have in its secondary. Mays might conjure thoughts of Ronnie Lott for Niners fans.

7. Detroit Lions - Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
This would be a tough spot for Detroit with the top two defensive tackles off the board. If that's the case, the team could reach a little bit to take the left tackle many expected them to this season.

8. Oakland Raiders - Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
Lame Al Davis jokes aside, Dunlap is a great fit for the Raiders. Richard Seymour's contract is up at the end of the year and he's not expected to re-sign. Even with Seymour, a better pass rush is needed.

9. Buffalo Bills - Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Really, is Trent Edwards the future of quarterbacking for Buffalo? The team seems to have settled on Demetrius Bell at left tackle and no outside linebackers are really worth a top 10 pick.

10. Seattle Seahawks - Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
It can be hard to justify taking a running back this early in the draft, but Dwyer has immense talent. Julius Jones is better as a second option and Edgerrin James has shown it's time for him to retire.

11. Miami Dolphins - Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
While Miami could use a nose tackle or future pass rushing linebacker, Bryant could be the best receiver in the draft since Calvin Johnson. Being ruled ineligible shouldn't affect Bryant's draft stock.

12. Arizona Cardinals - Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Williams is still a project at left tackle, but Mike Gandy has struggled for the Cardinals. At the least, Williams is an NFL-ready run blocker.

13. Washington Redskins - Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Clearly Redskins owner Dan Snyder is done with current starter Jason Campbell. The team tried to get Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. McCoy is a dependable passer who has better arm strength than people think.

14. San Diego Chargers - Damian Williams, WR, Southern California
The Chargers could be forced to replace receivers Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers after this season. Williams has emerged as a legit No. 1 receiver for the Trojans.

15. Houston Texans - Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Everyone expected the Texans to take a difference maker in the secondary this year, and they didn't. Haden can get out position in pass coverage, but he's a great all-around corner.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brandon Spikes, MLB, Florida
Steelers fans might be convinced Lawrence Timmons is the future inside, but I am not. Good middle linebackers average more than three tackles a game. Spikes would be a steal here. And even if Timmons sticks at middle linebacker, James Farrior is 34.

17. Green Bay Packers - Ciron Black, OT, LSU
Black might not be the best left tackle, but he's the best one available in this scenario. The Packers clearly need help along the offensive line.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars - Morgan Burnett, SS, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think Tim Tebow should be the choice here, but the team has a better chance of winning immediately by filling other holes. Wide receiver is a possibility as well, but Mike Sims-Walker is having a breakout season.

19. Dallas Cowboys - Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
Since getting rid of Terrell Owens, justifiably, the Cowboys have lacked a dependable wide receiver. That's what LaFell would provide. He's not the fastest or the flashiest, but he gets the job done.

20. Atlanta Falcons - Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi
Thirty-four games into his career, it's official: Jamaal Anderson is a bust. He has two sacks, which won't cut it for a 4-3 end. Hardy, when motivated, is as good of a pass rusher as there is in the nation.

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
Philadelphia's current group of outside linebackers feature a bunch of players who are only average. Kindle could be a sensation in the team's blitz-heavy scheme.

22. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Gresham's season-ending knee injury shouldn't stop a team from taking him in the first round. That's especially true if you consider that the Bengals' starting tight end is Daniel Coats.

23. New England Patriots - Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
Whether they used him inside or outside, McClain could make a big impact for the Patriots. Other than Jerod Mayo and an aging Adalius Thomas, New England is somewhat light on linebacker talent.

24. Denver Broncos (via Chicago) - Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
Cody would be the last piece the Broncos need to finish off the conversion to a 3-4. While I'm not the biggest fan of Cody's, the Broncos need someone in the middle to regularly take up multiple blockers.

25. New York Jets - Arthur Jones, DT, Syracuse
In the Jets' 3-4, Jones would get moved over to end, a position the team needs to address. Jones has the quickness and size to play end and would give coach Rex Ryan another good pressure guy.

26. San Francisco 49ers - Eric Norwood, OLB, South Carolina
Many expect San Francisco to take a quarterback, but Shaun Hill might be the kind of game manager coach Mike Singletary wants. Norwood would help a pass rush that's below-average from the linebacker spot.

27. Baltimore Ravens - Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
Tate is the kind of playmaking wide receiver the Ravens have never had. He can make big plays out of short passes and will be able to help on special teams.

28. Minnesota Vikings - Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Ray Edwards is a free agent after the season and is average at best. Morgan has shown flashes of dominance this season. He can get after the passer or stay at home and handle the run.

29. New York Giants - Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins are facing free agency following this season and if both don't come back, tackle could be a big need. Austin has been inconsistent thus far, but has great talent. A coach like Tom Coughlin could harness it nicely.

30. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) - Charles Brown, OT, Southern California
The career of left tackle Walter Jones is winding down. Brown is a similar kind of offensive lineman who has good athleticism and drive. While safety and quarterback can be considered needs, no players seem worth this slot.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Selvish Capers, OT, West Virginia
Some project Capers to play left tackle, but he's been on the right side for the Mountaineers this season. Either spot he plays, the Colts could use him. Middle linebacker could be a need, but that is a position that traditionally be addressed later in the draft.

32. New Orleans Saints - Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Outside linebacker and defensive tackle are the top needs for an overachieving Saints defense. Weatherspoon would be a perfect fit outside. He's a good tackler and can make up for the mistakes of teammates.

SB Nation - Trent Williams

Breaking Down Bedlam

Aggie On Deck!

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

Season Over For Bradford, Sooners Should Start Looking To 2010

Texas wins but QBs Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy are draft losers

Saturday NFL Draft watch notes

The State of Oklahoma: Obligatory Rundown of the Roster

Offense

That's all, folks

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

The State of Oklahoma: Offensive Line Struggles with Right Tackle Comedians

"Please don't speed rush me..."

Conclusion

2010 NFL mock draft