SB Nation - Branndon Braxton

The State of Oklahoma: A Preliminary Look at the Oxen that Make the Wagon Move, Part I

TheElusiveShadow — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 21:41:29 -0000

Update: In what probably isn't good news for OU, the injuries to centers Habern and Lepak have forced OU to turn to a tight end, Brody Eldridge. Good, therefore, is probably sticking to center regardless, although he is still a possibility. Trent Williams reportedly has taken center snaps, but he is most certainly not sticking there.

With the 2009 season so agonizingly close and expectations up in the stratosphere, Texas fans are dreaming of another undefeated, national championship run. When assessing our schedule, it is no secret that two games loom the largest as we look in our preseason crystal ball: October 17^th in Dallas and October 31st in Stillwater. The two schools from our... favorite neighboring state up north present the most significant, and some would boldly say only, roadblocks of the season. It is only appropriate that we keep an eye on them throughout the season and note the strengths, weaknesses, and progress of each respective team. Thus, I here present to you the State of Oklahoma.

Note: Certainly, some could point out that "The State of Oklahoma" could be answered for the whole season with, "Oklahoma sucks," both as a description of the school bearing the name as well as a summary of the state's education level and overall culture. I wouldn't argue with that and it definitely has a poetic simplicity to it, but humor me as I occupy myself with writing long-winded posts.

This series will be split into two posts a week, one focusing on OU and the other looking at OSU. Today, I'll take an introductory look at the much discussed Oklahoma offensive line and what their performance means for Sam Bradford and the team's overall national title aspirations.

More after the jump...

Oklahoma's National Championship Run Failure: Shock and Awe

In 2008, Oklahoma was favored to win the Big 12 and was one of the favorites to appear in the national championship game. While Oklahoma completed both of those quests, the journey was quite unlike anything anyone expected: Instead of complete dominance, Oklahoma was derailed by Texas, and only an oft-debated tiebreaking system gave them the breaks to continue to the Big 12 title game and subsequently, the MNC game. As angry as Texas fans were over the tiebreaker, there's no question Oklahoma fielded a very capable team. With an experienced offensive line, deep talent at the skill positions, and Sam Bradford, OU blitzed multiple opponents with their hurry-up offense in a sort of "shock and awe" type of strategy. Oklahoma scored a whopping 51.1 points per game and had a stretch where they scored 60 points or more in five straight games. While we can quibble a bit about Bob Stoops running the up score, the Sooners obviously had the capability to put up a lot of points and do so in a hurry. Because this team depended so much on a high powered offense to knock out their opponents early in the fashion of Mike Tyson, as described here by The Boy (now Bill C) at Rock M Nation, it was obviously a big deal when the likes of Bradford, Gresham, and Murray decided to turn down the NFL and give the Sooners a chance to recreate their 2008 offensive success. Although the losses against Texas and Florida showed that Oklahoma strategy was ultimately flawed, it worked well enough that they will obviously seek to have a similar offensive philosophy going into 2009.

However, not all key players returned; the majority of their much hyped offensive line departed for good after 2008, leaving a giant question mark where the Sooners were allegedly so strong for the last two years.

Sam Bradford's Protectors: Will They Make or Break the Season?

Like it or not, Sam Bradford is an excellent college quarterback. However, if there is one significant criticism of him, it's that he gets rattled easily by pressure, at least in comparison to his peers Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow. For his first two seasons, this was normally not an issue for Bradford, as his offensive line allowed him to build campfires while scanning the field. The few times it was an issue, Bradford, and Oklahoma as a whole, had moments of struggle. Consider these games:

-at Texas Tech, 2007: Bradford gets injured on a hit and OU falls in Lubbock
-vs. West Virginia, 2007: Bradford is sacked three times and hounded all day by the Mountaineers, leading to another embarrassing BCS loss for Bob Stoops.
-vs. Texas, 2008: Bradford has a good game but the Sooner offense stagnates in the second half as Texas wins the battle at the line of scrimmage, leading to constant doses of Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle. The interception Bradford throws before halftime is also a direct result of pressure and the Longhorns cash in a field goal.
-vs. Florida, 2008(9): While Bradford doesn't have as bad a game as some people say, he has some bad moments due to pressure and is sacked twice. The Sooners score only 14 points while Florida escapes with only 24, also well below their average.

In short, of the mere 13 sacks Bradford suffered in 2008, eight of them came in three games against TCU, Texas, and Florida. Incidentally, those were the three lowest scoring games for the Sooners.

Bradford isn't a statue, but he is most definitely not as mobile as McCoy and Tebow and gets flustered easier when defenders go at him. While it is certainly true that all quarterbacks will struggle when faced with constant pressure (duh), Bradford's apparent inability to adapt to the rush makes this a more glaring weakness for him than his fellow Heisman finalists. This makes the losses at offensive line even more of a concern for the Sooners, for their All-American QB could possibly have a draft stock-damaging season if they can't keep defenders away from him.

These are the stakes: Keep Bradford upright and a national championship is within reach. Fail in this regard and the Sooners' best result is probably a BCS at-large berth or possibly even worse if the defense does not improve as expected. Maintaining their overall rushing success will obviously be important as well, but that too helps keep the heat off of Bradford. Bob Stoops knows this well, but he is not without answers. Let's meet their projected starting line.

The New Workhorses

LT - Trent Williams, SR. Replaces: Phil Loadholt, 2^nd round pick

If there's one recognizable name in Oklahoma's line, it's returning starter Trent Williams, who will switch from right tackle to left tackle for the 2009 season. He was first team All-Big 12 last year and is a preseason pick for All-Big 12 this year. He is considered one of the top tackle prospects for the draft and has been starting since his freshman year. Kevin Wilson, OU's offensive coordinator, called Williams the best lineman he's ever had. This can be chalked up to typical coach hyperbole, but the guy is obviously talented. Needless to say, his return is arguably more important than Murray's and Gresham's combined. He did not come out of high school with the highest of expectations, listed as a three star recruit by Rivals.com and not making ESPN's top 150, but he performed well as a freshman and earned a spot on the All-American Freshman team. Having somebody with as much talent and experience as him protecting Bradford's blindside is huge for Oklahoma.

The mere fact that Loadholt was the left tackle and Williams was not last season may be cause for some slight concern, for while Loadholt dominated smaller ends, he struggled against elite ends. Brian Orakpo embarrassed Loadholt last October, which contributed to him falling into the second round. Williams will not have the misfortune of facing Orakpo, but he will undoubtedly get his chance against Sergio Kindle. Thus, for Williams to be truly successful enough for OU's national title aspirations, he must do more than dominate opposing lineman significantly less talented than him; he will have to hold his own against elite college pass rushers in the Sooners' big games, something Loadholt did not do. However, while he is not as big and strong as Loadholt, he is quicker and reportedly has superior footwork. Being roughly 20 pounds lighter than his predecessor, Williams may have the lateral movement necessary to block pass rushers who turn the corner in a hurry, pass rushers who left Loadholt in the dust. His presence automatically bolsters the Sooners' national championship aspirations, and a standout season from him at his new position would spell big trouble for opposing teams trying mightily to slow down the Sooner offense.

LG - Brian Simmons, SR. Replaces: Duke Robinson, 5^th round pick

While not a starter last year, Simmons saw action in every game last season as a backup, making him the only other Sooner lineman with a large amount of game experience. According to Rivals.com, Simmons was a four star recruit and the #2 player at his position... which was defensive tackle. His switch has been a successful one, and he was the Sooners' most valuable backup last season along with Branndon Braxton. If anything, his history as a defensive tackle suggests that he has decent mobility to go along with size.

Simmons played at both guard positions last season but will stick to left guard here to help defend Bradford's blind side. With Simmons and Williams, the left side of the Sooner line is expected to be pretty solid, if not very strong. After these two, however, the experience drops off considerably.

C - Ben Habern, RS Fr./Stephen Good, So. Replaces: Jon Cooper, UFA

Habern redshirted his first year after suffering an injury after playing in three games. Going into the 2008 season, he was the #3 rated center in his class and received four stars from Rivals. He seemed to have won the starting job after the spring, but a recent injury has apparently slipped him out of that spot, with guard Stephen Good getting reps at center. While not a center by trade, Good is bigger and stronger than Habern currently is. Of course, being a good center doesn't just mean you're big; centers are charged with the responsibility of making pre-snap reads and adjustments at the line. This was something departing center Jon Cooper was known to be good at, earning himself All-Big 12 honors. Good has little experience with center in the first place and Habern has no significant game experience to speak of, making either choice a risk for the Sooners. Still, if they can manage that, they both have the physical talent to hold their own against opposing tackles.

RG - Stephen Good, So./Jarvis Jones, So. Replaces: Brandon Walker, UFA (released by Houston shortly after a DUI arrest, to go along with others)

Obviously, if Good does not stick with center, he will slide right back to guard and resume his duties there. Good looks like a prototypical guard and reportedly has great strength to go with that size, perhaps the strongest on the team. If, however, he remains the starting center, it seems former LSU tackle Jarvis Jones might get a look at guard as well. Both players were highly regarded tackles out of high school, with Good receiving five stars from Rivals and Jarvis Jones receiving four. Jones saw early success at LSU, playing as a true freshman for their 2007 national championship team. The ambiguous violation of "team rules" got Jones booted from the Tigers, and he promptly signed with Oklahoma, where he fit the culture much better :). As a transfer, Jones could not play last season, but Good played in seven games as a reserve. Neither has starting experience, but it would be false to say they are completely inexperienced and they certainly have talent.

Because Habern is actually a center, it may seem prudent for Oklahoma to quickly get him back and keep Good at guard, where he is most natural. However, if Good can manage the duties of a center, it may pay dividends for the Sooners to have Jarvis Jones on the field as much as possible. Provided, of course, he doesn't violate any "team rules," like working at the local car dealership.

RT - Cory Brandon, Jr. Replaces: Trent Williams (above)

Brandon played in nine games last season and seven in 2007 as a reserve, and he was a four star recruit according to Rivals in 2006. He does not seem particularly hyped up compared to others on the line, but he does represent some decent experience (relatively speaking) and he seems firmly entrenched as the starting right tackle. It is noteworthy that he beat out the talented Jarvis Jones for the starting tackle spot, but he does have 16 games of Oklahoma experience over Jones. He hasn't made that big of a splash in his four years in the program after redshirting due to injury, and his supporters claim that his time is now. While not nearly as important as the LT position for Bradford's safety, Brandon has some big shoes to fill as Williams switches sides, and he will see his fair share of talented ends from the likes of Texas as well.

Other notes

Jason Hannan, who was competing for the starting center job, transferred in the spring. Alex Williams, who was the reserve guard behind Simmons and Good, also transferred recently. Brian Lepak, a walk-on transfer from Colorado State, may serve as a backup guard or center. Sophomore Donald Stephenson is another scholarship player and played in seven games last year. He will serve as a backup tackle for Trent Williams.

Potential to Production

The cupboard isn't exactly bare for the Sooners; while they lack starting experience across the line, they have several players who have playing experience and have talented options to choose from. Still, of the mere 29 combined starts the line has, 26 of them belong to Williams. Also, with some of their transfers, depth is a concern, especially at tackle should something happen to Williams.

While not as intimidating on paper as last year's line, this unit may prove to be the more nimble of the two, which actually might help Bradford in the long run. Although last year's unit only gave up 13 sacks last season, Texas, Florida, and West Virginia in 2007 showed that quick pass rushers really bothered that line. I have little doubt that this year's Sooner line can gobble up a lot of mediocre defensive lines. The question, as it was last season, is whether or not they can live up to their potential by stonewalling elite pass rushes. Thus, it's not so much the number of sacks given up, which almost certainly will be higher than last year's number, but when those sacks happen and who is responsible for them. Giving up garbage sacks against patsy opponents is better than having your QB hounded in the biggest games of the year, although granted, if they're having consistent trouble protecting Sam against cupcakes, he better be wearing full armor when he goes to Dallas.

As far as the run game is concerned, of which I admittedly discussed little here, guys like Simmons and Good seem well-suited for the task. They aren't blocking for chumps either, with Brown, Murray, and Madu in the Sooner backfield. However, here too the question remains on how they will respond against a top D-line squad. The Sooners churned out almost 200 yards a game last year on the ground but got snuffed out against better defenses. Bradford's arm is still the most dangerous part of the Sooner offense, but without balance, he can and will become a sitting duck. In the three games mentioned above, OU averaged 0.7 yards per carry against TCU, 1.8 against Texas, and 3.7 against Florida. Bradford is a great QB and still put up good stats, but clearly, the lack of rushing success allowed these teams to gun for Bradford more regularly and exacerbate the protection problems.

Obviously, it is too early to definitively say if this year's Sooner O-line will be as strong as Oklahoma hopes or as bad as their opponents hope. What we can say, however, is that they are not going to put chumps out there that any D-line with a pulse can get through. The potential and talent is undoubtedly there, and Sooner fans can place their hope on that. But potential and production are never the same thing, and if it takes too long for the new guys to gel together, the Sooners will probably be sporting at least one loss by the time they face Oklahoma State in their last game (against you know who :) ).

The Sooners NFL Draft Recap

dishingoutdimes — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 16:38:53 -0000

More photos » by Jerry S. Mendoza - AP

Detroit Lions' tight end Brandon Pettigrew, left, safety Louis Delmas, center, of Western Michigan, and quarterback Matthew Stafford, of Georgia, sport looks of concern about being drafted by the Lions during a news conference at the Lions' headquarters on Sunday, April 26, 2009, in Allen Park, Mich. [I made that up]. (AP Photo/Jerry S. Mendoza)

Browse more photos »

No Sooners are going to the 0-16 Detroit Lions, but it seems like the Minnesota Vikings have a thing for the Oklahoma Sooners. They drafted Adrian Peterson in 2007. They drafted Rufus Alexander last year. And now it appears they have two Sooners on their summer roster - Phil Loadholt and Jon Cooper. It should be noted that Brad Childress, Vikings head coach, visited Norman a couple of times personally. I had that in one of my notebooks, but I'm not going to dig it up now.

In any event here's how it breaks down:

Phil Loadholt: drafted by the Minnesota Vikings with the 22nd pick in the 2nd round, 54th pick overall.

Juaquin Iglesias: drafted by the Chicago Bears in the 3rd round with the 99th overall pick.

Nic Harris: drafted by the Buffalo Bills in the 5th round with the 147th overall pick.

Duke Robinson: drafted by the Carolina Panthers in the 5th round with the 163rd overall pick.

Manuel Johnson: drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the 7th round with the 229th overall pick.

Jon Cooper: signed as a free agent with the Minnesota Vikings.

Brandon Walker: signed as a free agent with the Houston Texans.

Lendy Holmes: signed as a free agent with the Washington Redskins (h/t to Woodrow Wilson).

Quentin Chaney: signed as a free agent with the St. Louis Rams (h/t to Woodrow Wilson).

So in total, 5 Sooners were drafted and 2 more were signed as free agents. Here's a good summary quote from soonersports.com:

Oklahoma continued several notable streaks in the 2009 NFL Draft. At least one Sooner was selected for the 47th consecutive Draft (1963-2009) and for the 41st time in the first seven rounds (1969-2009). For the 12th-straight year (1998-2009), a Sooner was selected in the first three rounds.

OU has supplied 339 players all-time in the NFL Draft (fourth-highest total of all schools). Despite its relative youth when compared with other coach staffs, the Sooner staff has done remarkably well at preparing players for the next level. This group of coaches can boast more than 66 players (41 drafted) who entered the NFL.

Personally, I'm shocked that Duke Robinson fell to the 5th round with his work ethic and talent level. He was often widely considered to be one of, if not our best, linemen.

I'm not really too surprised by anything else. Players still out there that might catch on with free agent contracts include Branndon Braxton and Mike Knall.

Sooners in the NFL Draft

dishingoutdimes — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:43:11 -0000

Despite Oklahoma making the national championship and graduating/losing 9 starters, and 6 backups, none of them are really projected as a first round pick right now (per ESPN). this is pretty shocking, especially with the talented offensive line that OU had. Before the season ended, many people thought that Phil Loadholt or Duke Robinson might be able to sneak into the first round. Anyways, we're going to examine some guys here and give a little capsule on what each might expect in the draft. Enjoy!

Duke Robinson - OG

6'5" 329, 40 Time: 5.32 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 20, Vertical Jump: 31.5", Broad Jump: 8'3", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.90 sec, 3-cone: 8.09 sec. (Most of those are OU Pro Day results)

Duke is widely regarded as the top guard on the board. He will probably be the first guard off the board. He didn't do a whole lot other than the 40 at the combine (perhaps he hurt his stock a little there), but his measurables at the pro day all looked pretty good and most of the NFL teams had scouts there. And at the pro day, all the scouts loved his build. He projects as one of the top interior linemen in the draft and will probably work best on a team that has a power rushing attack. No doubt he'll get drafted. If all the teams pass on him for one round, expect him to go in the first 5-7 picks in the second round. "During his last two seasons, Robinson had 229 knockdown blocks and had a key block on 29 touchdowns" --NFL Draft Scout. I don't know if he'll be a pro bowler, but I expect him to be successful in the NFL.

Phil Loadholt - OT

6'8" 332, 40 Time: 5.45 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 26, Vertical Jump: 29", Broad Jump: 8'9", 20 Yard Shuttle: 5.06 sec, 3-cone: 8.18 sec. (Most of those are OU Pro Day results)

Phil Loadholt has the size to have a huge impact as an offensive tackle in the NFL. He probably projects to a right tackle, but is a bit too tall for guard. The Bears and the Vikings have expressed interest in Loadholt already. Despite extremely long arms he had 26 bench press reps which is great. He's a better run blocker than pass blocker. "He has the size, strength, and flexibility to be a dominant drive blocker in the running game. He had pass blocking challenges at the Senior Bowl that validated concerns about his ability to stay at left tackle in the NFL" --NFL Draft Scout. Look for Loadholt to perhaps move to right tackle to fit in at the NFL. Given the pass blocking concerns he might drop to mid to late 2nd round. Anything after the 40-45th pick I would consider a steal though.

Juaquin Iglesias - WR

6'1" 210, 40 Time: 4.50 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: DNP, Vertical Jump: 34.5", Broad Jump: 9'8", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.40 sec, 3-cone: 7.22 sec. (Most of those are Combine results)

Depending on how the draft is going, I would expect Iglesias to go somewhere in the 2nd to 3rd round. For being a "hands guy" who should be reliable to catch just about anything, he has a decent amount of speed. I think his fastest 40 time was in the neighborhood of 4.45. Overall he has good measurables. In pads he has a surprising quickness and he has a feel for getting open in the coverages (just ask Sam Bradford). At the OU pro day he dropped his first pass and his last pass but caught everything in between. NFL Draft Scout said it was "like watching Velcro". In any event, I think Iglesias could be one of those guys who is never an elite NFL receiver but a solid guy who catches a few passes a game for decent yardage and would be a good threat out of the slot.

Nic Harris S/OLB

6'3" 234, 40 Time: 4.84 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 15, Vertical Jump: 31.5", Broad Jump: 9'1", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.37 sec, 3-cone: 7.05 sec. (Most of those are Combine results)

Nic Harris is a great athlete, but he's one of those guys that it may be difficult to find a position for in the NFL. At safety, he is a bit too big. He's very fluid in coverage but may not be able to keep up with the speed at the NFL level. At linebacker, he's a bit undersized and might not be able to fight off blocks or work too well close to the line. So, he's kind of a tweener. It's a shame, because I think he has the athleticism and talent to make a big impact. If the right team with the right scheme drafts him, he might work out okay. I think he'd work better in a 4-3 defense, but could work in some sort of hybrid 3-3-5 defense where he can slide down to LB to make it a 3-4 in running situations. Gil Brandt from NFL.com raved that his backpedal was just about as fast as his 40, so it would be a shame to waste his coverage skills. He's projected in the 5th round right now.

Those are the guys who are projected to be definitely drafted. Here's how the rest shake out:

Possible Late Round (7th) or Free Agent:

Brandon Walker, OG: Don't know all that much about Brandon, other than that there's a lot of guys who are projected ahead of him. I don't think he really separated from the pack at pro day or the combine. I don't think he'll go in the draft, but could get invited to a camp.
Branndon Braxton, OT: See Brandon Walker.
Jon Cooper, C: He's a really talented player. Some may say he's a bit undersized for the NFL but he weighed in at 290. He quarterbacked OU's amazing offensive line and I think he could actually surprise in the NFL. Could be a steal as a 7th rounder or a camp invitee.
Manuel Johnson, WR: He's smaller at 5'11" and only about 190 so that immediately raises some flags for NFL scouts. He doesn't have a great 40 time and he only really broke out last year with solid stats. Despite all that, he's a solid receiver with good game speed, agility and fluidity and reliable hands. It's possible he'll go late in the draft depending on how quickly receivers go earlier on.
Lendy Holmes, FS: He hurt himself with a 40 time around 4.7. Unlike Harris, he doesn't have the size to be a tweener at linebacker. His 40 time is disappointing since I always considered him as faster than that. Still, he's been a playmaker during his time at OU and started out as a corner. His coverage skills and talent might be able to overcome some scouts who will frown on some of his combine measurables.
Mike Knall, P: Overall he was a solid punter in his time at OU but never did anything really special to make you say, "well that guy could play in the NFL". Punters aren't a dime a dozen so even if he isn't drafted he could get an invite to a camp.
Quentin Chaney, WR: He's got the size at 6-4 208. However he got way less playing time than Johnson or Iglesias. I don't think he'll be drafted but because of his size and his pedigree (OU), I could see him getting invited to a camp.

OU Football Spring Preview Part One: Who Is and Isn't Back, Exciting New Players

dishingoutdimes — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:29:16 -0000

Isn't that a beautiful sight? Owen Field filled to capacity, waiting to watch the OU football team take the field. I know we are in the middle of two remarkable basketball seasons (men's and women's), but it's time to start previewing the football team as the Red-White game will be approaching, and Spring practice has already started. Now, with the tournament starting soon, these may not be regular installments, but I will link to previous versions of these previews in the latest preview that I post. Eventually, when I end, there should be a series of links at the top of that post, and you can explore all of my spring previews.

Here's how it will work: I will post articles throughout the offseason (starting now and lasting possibly through May), and eventually we should have a nice overall view of how the football team is shaping up.

In order to go anywhere with this preview, first we need to understand what pieces will be missing from last year. This will be the "logistical" part of the preview - who is and is not back, who redshirted last year, etc. etc.

All the good stuff after the jump...

Who We Lost

Regular Starters: OT Phil Loadholt, OG Duke Robinson, OG Brandon Walker, C Jon Cooper, WR Juaquin Iglesias, WR Manuel Johnson, S Nic Harris, S Lendy Holmes, P Mike Knall.

Role Players/Backups: OL Branndon Braxton, WR Quentin Chaney, DT Cory Bennett, DB Brett Bowers, DE Alan Davis, QB Joey Halzle.

Obviously, what jumps out is that we lost almost our entire starting offensive line, our two starting wide receivers and our two starting safeties. We'll delve more into this when I talk about how we're going to fill the holes in our team from last year and graduations. However, I'll offer a few thoughts on these issues:

First, wide receivers are relatively easy to replace. It's not like in the Stoops era that OU has had an absolutely incredible stable of wideouts. On the contrary, I would argue we have had a stable of running backs, and a ton of really solid wideouts. Even 2 and 3 star recruits at WR pan out to be solid for the Sooners. Quentin Chaney was a 3 star recruit. Juaquin Iglesias was a 2 star recruit. Plus, we have some pretty solid guys waiting in the wings. Like I said, more on that in a later issue.

We have some awesome recruits waiting to compete for the safety spots. That's not really a concern. In fact our defense is loaded. All of that in later issues. Most concerning about these losses is the offensive line. It's not easy to replace such a bulky, athletic and talented offensive line overnight. It's probably the most unheralded position on the field except maybe the punter, but I think our offensive line was the big reason why our offense put up such astronomical numbers last season. Bradford rarely got touched, and we could pick apart defenses.

Last Year's Redshirts

We had a few redshirts last year (19 to be exact). Here they are:

DB Derrick Bradley, RB Jermie Calhoun, LB Daniel Franklin, OL Ben Habern, DB Lamar Harris, LB Dylan Hughley, DB Joseph Ibiloye, LB Emmanuel Jones, OT Jarvis Jones, QB Landry Jones, DE David King, OL Brian Lepak, DT Stacy McGee, TE Josh New, QB Ben Sherrard, TE James Toms, DT Casey Walker, DE R.J. Washington, K Tress Way.

New Players To Watch

Obviously we know about what we're getting from guys who were on the field regularly. But there's some new recruits or redshirts from last year who you should keep an eye on, especially in the spring game:

DE R.J. Washington - This guy was a 5 star recruit coming out of Keller, Texas. He was redshirted last year, but everyone was real excited about him. I'm not sure how much of the field he'll see with really only one DE graduating, but I would expect to see him become a part of the rotation. Here's some YouTube highlights.

WR's Jameel Owens and DeJuan Miller - Both of these guys were recruited last year as well. They both have good size. Owens is 6'3" 210 and Miller is 6'5" 200. While Ryan Broyles will be one of the obvious starters, and upperclassmen Adron Tennell and Brandon Caleb will be given every opportunity to win the other spot, I would expect to see both of these guys challenge for significant playing time and/or a starting spot. They were both 4 star recruits, so both of them have the talent to be big impact receivers. I would expect one of them to step up big time and impress.

S Quinton Carter - He isn't really new, but I would love to see him step up. In the playing time he did get, he was sort of a spark plug. He hits hard and would play well as a strong safety I think. We're going to need a centerfielder out there with a little bit more range and fluid hips in and out of turns, but I liked what I saw of Carter last year. Here are some samples of his work:

Ben Habern, Stephen Good and Jarvis Jones - All of these offensive lineman were highly rated in recruiting services. Jarvis Jones was a starter at LSU as a freshman before he transferred to OU. They all have the size to be successful in Division 1 college football, but will their skills transfer? If so, our offensive line could be almost as good as it was last year, which was basically untouchable.

RB Jermie Calhoun and RB Justin Johnson - Both of these guys were 5 star running back recruits last year. With Murray, Brown and Madu, they didn't get any playing time last year. However, they are both obviously very talented, and the majority of the buzz has been about Calhoun (he hasn't seen the field at all, he was redshirted). With the possibility of Mossis Madu moving to WR, that could open up the possibility of one of these guys sliding into 3rd down back or quality depth back role. I'm particularly excited to see Calhoun finally.

If a lot of those guys step up and help fill in major roles vacated by departing players, I think we'll be close to last year's level of competitiveness. We are returning a lot of starters, especially on defense.

The next spring preview issue should involve the major holes that have opened up, and the players that we should expect to step up and fill in these roles.

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.