SB Nation - Quentin Chaney

2009 OU Football Preview/Big 12 Predictions

ccmachine — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:29:36 -0000

We’ve put out individual position-by-position breakdowns for the 2009 Oklahoma football team but in an effort to collaborate with all the SBN Big 12 blogs we’re going to run one more overview of the team, make our conference predictions and then share a few thoughts on some questions being passed around to the Big 12 sites. Feel free to chime in with your own thoughts.

Offense: The Sooners are loaded at every skill position and if the offensive line is just average then they shouldn’t be too far off from last year’s 51.1 point per game average. Quarterback Sam Bradford makes his bid for a second consecutive Heisman Trophy with two 1,000 yard rushers from last season in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown to keep opposing defenses honest.

When it comes time to go to the air there may not be a more accurate passer in America than Bradford. He’s got college football’s best tight end in Jermaine Gresham and while Manny Johnson, Juaquin Iglesias and Quentin Chaney are all gone from last year’s squad a new crop of talented receivers has emerged. We saw in `08 what Ryan Broyles is capable of and Adron Tennell has stepped up in camp along with JUCO transfer Cameron Kenny to turn the heads of coaches and players by providing some of those coveted, "Wow!!!" moments.

Obviously the glaring concern for Oklahoma’s offense is along the line. While some are suggesting that four new starters equates to gloom and doom for OU’s high octane offense and others tend to be overly optimistic I think that the answer probably is somewhere in between. Led by returning starter Trent Williams, this new unit gives up a little size to last year’s line (averaging 305lbs) but should be quicker on their feet allowing offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson more freedom to pull from both sides and also move the pocket. Oklahoma doesn’t have to have the biggest line to repeat the success from `08, they just need a solid unit that can do their job. With OU’s quick strike offense an average line can take them a long way. Should they gel quickly and prove to be above average then records will fall in `09.

Defense: The greatest improvement we may see in `09 from any one unit is along the special teams but the second should be in the performance of the defense. In 2009 OU was #1 in the country in turnover margin (+23) and with 8 returning starters the potential is there to duplicate that performance.

Led by All-American Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma’s defensive line doesn’t look to be pushed around by anyone. One time All-Conference defensive end is healthy again and is looking to return to the form we saw in 2007. Also in the rotation at end are Jeremy Beal, who led the team in sacks last year, and Frank Alexander who may be having the best camp of all the defensive ends. How do you pick just two starters from that trio?

The linebacking corps returns intact in `09 as well. The same group that helped Oklahoma’s defense rank a respectable 20^th in the nation against the run in `08 will be another year experienced going into this season. Travis Lewis led the team in tackles last year as a freshman with 144 total tackles and could actually see those numbers grow this year with the defensive line clearing the way.

Like the line for the offensive unit the secondary is where we find the question marks on the defense. Corners Dominique Franks and Brian Jackson will match up well with any receiver in the conference but the safety spots could be a bit unproven. Quinton Carter started a couple of games last season but played in a total of twelve where he gained a reputation of being a hard hitter who thrives on dislodging the ball from the person carrying it. Sam Proctor is the new strong safety and has more special teams experience than anything else and will have to quickly learn on the job.

Special Teams – The return game (both punts and kickoffs) is set with a quartet of guys (Dominique Franks, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Broyles and Cameron Kenny) who have game breaking speed the Sooners should be every bit as dangerous in the return game as they were last season if not more so.

The problems with Oklahoma’s special teams last season came in the kicking game and defending the returns. Both of those seem to have changed in `09. Jimmy Stevens appears to have found a more powerful and accurate leg while also finding himself on the Groza watch list and the personnel changes last year on kickoff coverage sent a clear message as it also sent players to the bench.

Predicted Final Big 12 Standings

*North*	*South*
Kansas	Oklahoma
Nebraska	Texas
Missouri	Oklahoma State
Colorado	Texas Tech
Kansas State	Baylor
Iowa State	Texas A&M

Roundtable Questions

Who wins the Big 12 North? See Above

Who wins the Big 12 South? See Above

How many Big 12 teams will be bowl eligable? Nine – Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech

Which conference team do you think will show the most improvement from last season (in record only)? Baylor

Who is your Non-QB conference player of the year? Kansas wide receiver Dezmon Briscoe.

Do you believe any Big 12 coaches will be gone (fired or hired elsewhere) after this season? Colorado’s Dan Hawkins is the only coach who is on the hot seat in my opinion and I don’t see any of the other coaches moving on.

What would you prefer as the Big 12's 3rd "best" bowl game? The Holiday or Alamo? Definitely the Holiday Bowl by location only.

Better D-Lineman, Suh or McCoy? McCoy plays on the better defense but Suh is the better player.

Better Wide Receiver, Bryant or Briscoe? Both are extremely talented but Briscoe seems unstoppable at times.

Predict the worst non-conference loss (an upset) that the Big 12 will suffer. September 25^th – Missouri at Nevada

Predict the MNC participants and champion. Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech – Sooners win number 8

2009 OU Football Preview: Receivers/Tight Ends

ccmachine — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 22:50:27 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Mossis Madu is hoping to find more playing time as a slot receiver in `09. ,

Browse more photos »

Juaquin Iglesias, Quentin Chaney and Manny Johnson are all gone which leaves Adron Tennell as Oklahoma’s lone senior receiver and Ryan Broyles as OU’s leading receiver. Much like the offensive line the situation isn’t a dire as it may seem on the surface. Oklahoma is still very deep and talented at the receiver position they just lack experience. Broyles is a proven game breaker and Tennell had a terrific spring. Behind them are some young guys in Jameel Owens and Dejuan Miller who were both highly recruited and experienced some game action last season. Also, the x-factor in Oklahoma’s receivers in JUCO transfer Cameron Kenny who is supposed to bring the same game breaking ability that Broyles provides. He wasn’t on campus for the spring but we should get a feeling for him shortly after summer workouts begin. Also, the biggest move in the spring was Mossis Madu jumping from running back to receiver.

At the tight end spot there isn’t a team in the country that has an advantage over the Sooners. Jermaine Gresham is literally an unstoppable force because of his size and speed. He’s too quick for a linebacker to cover and too big for a defensive back to cover which creates a constant mismatch giving Sam Bradford a target that will almost always be open.

Receivers

#85 Ryan Broyles, So – Last season Broyles set the record for receiving yards by a Sooner freshman and tied in catches. In his first game, against Cincinnati, he recorded 7 catches for 141 yards. Broyles caught touchdown passes against Washington, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech.

#8 Brandon Caleb, Jr – Caught 4 passes for 52 yards in `08.

#6 Cameron Kenny, Jr – Was ranked as the #3 JUCO receiver and #16 JUCO player in the country last year by Rivals.

#17 Mossis Madu, Jr – Madu moves to the slot position after spending the last two years as a reserve running back. In last season’s Big 12 Championship Game he ran for 114 yards and scored three touchdowns while filling in for DeMarco Murray. Madu caught 12 passes last season for 84 yards.

#24 Dejuan Miller, So – Played in six games in `08. Caught 2 passes for 14 yards.

#4 Jameel Owens, So – Owens saw action in 9 games as a true freshman last season. He caught 4 passes for 44 yards.

#80 Adron Tennell, Sr – Played in 12 games in `08 and recorded 9 receptions for 68 yards.

Tight End

#83 Brody Eldridge, Sr – Split time between fullback and tight end in `08. Caught 4 passes for 24 yards and 1 touchdown.

#18 Jermaine Gresham, Sr – Was an All Big 12 first team player by the coaches last season and second team All American by the AP. Ranked second on the team in receptions (66) and in receiving yards (950). His 950 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns were both the most ever in a season by a Sooner tight end.

#82 James Hannah, So – Was a reserve in `08 and only caught one pass.

#88 Eric Mensik, Jr – Played in 4 games in `08.

#47 Trent Ratterree, So – Recorded no stats in `08.

Fun Football Facts From 2008: Nebraska

ccmachine — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 03:17:38 -0000

I don’t think there has ever been a more explosive (nor more fun) 5 ½ minutes of football than what we saw in last seasons Oklahoma/Nebraska game. Fresh off a drubbing of Kansas State the Sooner were back home for the renewal of the Big Red Rivalry. With many of the participants from "The Game of the Century" on hand, Oklahoma put Nebraska to bed early and then cruised to a 62-28 win.

OU capped a 7 play 53 yard drive with a 2 yard touchdown run by Chris Brown to take a 7-0 lead at the 12:17 mark of the first quarter. At the 12:13 mark Dominique Franks returned an interception 18 yards for a score to make it 14-0. Then OU bumped it up to 21-0 at the 10:31 mark on a 48 yard touchdown pass from Sam Bradford to Quentin Chaney. Oklahoma capped off the 5 ½ minute barrage with a 9 yard strike from Bradford to Jermaine Gresham to lead 28-0 with 9:27 still to play in the first quarter. At the end of the first fifteen minutes the Sooners led 35-0 and the final three quarters would become "garbage time." Here are a few fun facts about the 2008 OU/Nebraska football game that you may have forgotten about.

• OU improved to 44-37-3 against the Cornhuskers including wins in the last four meetings. The Sooners hold a 23-16 advantage in Norman.

• The Oklahoma defense forced a turnover on Nebraska’s first three offensive possessions.

• The Sooners’ 62 points were its most ever against Nebraska. OU’s 49 first-half points against NU marked its most ever in a half against the Cornhuskers. The Sooners’ previous best against Nebraska was 34 in the second half of the 1954 contest.

• With his first-quarter 48-yard completion to Quentin Chaney, Bradford set an OU career record for pass completions for 40 or more yards with 30. He broke the mark of 29 previously held by Jason White.

• Bradford’s five touchdowns marked the 11th time that a Sooner QB has thrown for at least five touchdowns. Bradford holds the OU record with six, five-touchdown games. Jason White threw for five TDs on three occasions while Josh Heupel did it twice.

• DeMarco Murray scored his 29 career touchdown, tying Adrian Peterson for the most TDs by a Sooner in his first two years.

• With two touchdown catches, Jermaine Gresham has 21 career scores, tying Malcolm Kelly for second all-time (Mark Clayton - 31).

• Dominique Franks’ interception for a touchdown was the 31st defensive touchdown under Bob Stoops.

Sooners in the NFL Draft

dishingoutdimes — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:43:11 -0000

Despite Oklahoma making the national championship and graduating/losing 9 starters, and 6 backups, none of them are really projected as a first round pick right now (per ESPN). this is pretty shocking, especially with the talented offensive line that OU had. Before the season ended, many people thought that Phil Loadholt or Duke Robinson might be able to sneak into the first round. Anyways, we're going to examine some guys here and give a little capsule on what each might expect in the draft. Enjoy!

Duke Robinson - OG

6'5" 329, 40 Time: 5.32 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 20, Vertical Jump: 31.5", Broad Jump: 8'3", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.90 sec, 3-cone: 8.09 sec. (Most of those are OU Pro Day results)

Duke is widely regarded as the top guard on the board. He will probably be the first guard off the board. He didn't do a whole lot other than the 40 at the combine (perhaps he hurt his stock a little there), but his measurables at the pro day all looked pretty good and most of the NFL teams had scouts there. And at the pro day, all the scouts loved his build. He projects as one of the top interior linemen in the draft and will probably work best on a team that has a power rushing attack. No doubt he'll get drafted. If all the teams pass on him for one round, expect him to go in the first 5-7 picks in the second round. "During his last two seasons, Robinson had 229 knockdown blocks and had a key block on 29 touchdowns" --NFL Draft Scout. I don't know if he'll be a pro bowler, but I expect him to be successful in the NFL.

Phil Loadholt - OT

6'8" 332, 40 Time: 5.45 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 26, Vertical Jump: 29", Broad Jump: 8'9", 20 Yard Shuttle: 5.06 sec, 3-cone: 8.18 sec. (Most of those are OU Pro Day results)

Phil Loadholt has the size to have a huge impact as an offensive tackle in the NFL. He probably projects to a right tackle, but is a bit too tall for guard. The Bears and the Vikings have expressed interest in Loadholt already. Despite extremely long arms he had 26 bench press reps which is great. He's a better run blocker than pass blocker. "He has the size, strength, and flexibility to be a dominant drive blocker in the running game. He had pass blocking challenges at the Senior Bowl that validated concerns about his ability to stay at left tackle in the NFL" --NFL Draft Scout. Look for Loadholt to perhaps move to right tackle to fit in at the NFL. Given the pass blocking concerns he might drop to mid to late 2nd round. Anything after the 40-45th pick I would consider a steal though.

Juaquin Iglesias - WR

6'1" 210, 40 Time: 4.50 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: DNP, Vertical Jump: 34.5", Broad Jump: 9'8", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.40 sec, 3-cone: 7.22 sec. (Most of those are Combine results)

Depending on how the draft is going, I would expect Iglesias to go somewhere in the 2nd to 3rd round. For being a "hands guy" who should be reliable to catch just about anything, he has a decent amount of speed. I think his fastest 40 time was in the neighborhood of 4.45. Overall he has good measurables. In pads he has a surprising quickness and he has a feel for getting open in the coverages (just ask Sam Bradford). At the OU pro day he dropped his first pass and his last pass but caught everything in between. NFL Draft Scout said it was "like watching Velcro". In any event, I think Iglesias could be one of those guys who is never an elite NFL receiver but a solid guy who catches a few passes a game for decent yardage and would be a good threat out of the slot.

Nic Harris S/OLB

6'3" 234, 40 Time: 4.84 sec, 225lb Bench Reps: 15, Vertical Jump: 31.5", Broad Jump: 9'1", 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.37 sec, 3-cone: 7.05 sec. (Most of those are Combine results)

Nic Harris is a great athlete, but he's one of those guys that it may be difficult to find a position for in the NFL. At safety, he is a bit too big. He's very fluid in coverage but may not be able to keep up with the speed at the NFL level. At linebacker, he's a bit undersized and might not be able to fight off blocks or work too well close to the line. So, he's kind of a tweener. It's a shame, because I think he has the athleticism and talent to make a big impact. If the right team with the right scheme drafts him, he might work out okay. I think he'd work better in a 4-3 defense, but could work in some sort of hybrid 3-3-5 defense where he can slide down to LB to make it a 3-4 in running situations. Gil Brandt from NFL.com raved that his backpedal was just about as fast as his 40, so it would be a shame to waste his coverage skills. He's projected in the 5th round right now.

Those are the guys who are projected to be definitely drafted. Here's how the rest shake out:

Possible Late Round (7th) or Free Agent:

Brandon Walker, OG: Don't know all that much about Brandon, other than that there's a lot of guys who are projected ahead of him. I don't think he really separated from the pack at pro day or the combine. I don't think he'll go in the draft, but could get invited to a camp.
Branndon Braxton, OT: See Brandon Walker.
Jon Cooper, C: He's a really talented player. Some may say he's a bit undersized for the NFL but he weighed in at 290. He quarterbacked OU's amazing offensive line and I think he could actually surprise in the NFL. Could be a steal as a 7th rounder or a camp invitee.
Manuel Johnson, WR: He's smaller at 5'11" and only about 190 so that immediately raises some flags for NFL scouts. He doesn't have a great 40 time and he only really broke out last year with solid stats. Despite all that, he's a solid receiver with good game speed, agility and fluidity and reliable hands. It's possible he'll go late in the draft depending on how quickly receivers go earlier on.
Lendy Holmes, FS: He hurt himself with a 40 time around 4.7. Unlike Harris, he doesn't have the size to be a tweener at linebacker. His 40 time is disappointing since I always considered him as faster than that. Still, he's been a playmaker during his time at OU and started out as a corner. His coverage skills and talent might be able to overcome some scouts who will frown on some of his combine measurables.
Mike Knall, P: Overall he was a solid punter in his time at OU but never did anything really special to make you say, "well that guy could play in the NFL". Punters aren't a dime a dozen so even if he isn't drafted he could get an invite to a camp.
Quentin Chaney, WR: He's got the size at 6-4 208. However he got way less playing time than Johnson or Iglesias. I don't think he'll be drafted but because of his size and his pedigree (OU), I could see him getting invited to a camp.

OU Football Spring Preview Part One: Who Is and Isn't Back, Exciting New Players

dishingoutdimes — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:29:16 -0000

Isn't that a beautiful sight? Owen Field filled to capacity, waiting to watch the OU football team take the field. I know we are in the middle of two remarkable basketball seasons (men's and women's), but it's time to start previewing the football team as the Red-White game will be approaching, and Spring practice has already started. Now, with the tournament starting soon, these may not be regular installments, but I will link to previous versions of these previews in the latest preview that I post. Eventually, when I end, there should be a series of links at the top of that post, and you can explore all of my spring previews.

Here's how it will work: I will post articles throughout the offseason (starting now and lasting possibly through May), and eventually we should have a nice overall view of how the football team is shaping up.

In order to go anywhere with this preview, first we need to understand what pieces will be missing from last year. This will be the "logistical" part of the preview - who is and is not back, who redshirted last year, etc. etc.

All the good stuff after the jump...

Who We Lost

Regular Starters: OT Phil Loadholt, OG Duke Robinson, OG Brandon Walker, C Jon Cooper, WR Juaquin Iglesias, WR Manuel Johnson, S Nic Harris, S Lendy Holmes, P Mike Knall.

Role Players/Backups: OL Branndon Braxton, WR Quentin Chaney, DT Cory Bennett, DB Brett Bowers, DE Alan Davis, QB Joey Halzle.

Obviously, what jumps out is that we lost almost our entire starting offensive line, our two starting wide receivers and our two starting safeties. We'll delve more into this when I talk about how we're going to fill the holes in our team from last year and graduations. However, I'll offer a few thoughts on these issues:

First, wide receivers are relatively easy to replace. It's not like in the Stoops era that OU has had an absolutely incredible stable of wideouts. On the contrary, I would argue we have had a stable of running backs, and a ton of really solid wideouts. Even 2 and 3 star recruits at WR pan out to be solid for the Sooners. Quentin Chaney was a 3 star recruit. Juaquin Iglesias was a 2 star recruit. Plus, we have some pretty solid guys waiting in the wings. Like I said, more on that in a later issue.

We have some awesome recruits waiting to compete for the safety spots. That's not really a concern. In fact our defense is loaded. All of that in later issues. Most concerning about these losses is the offensive line. It's not easy to replace such a bulky, athletic and talented offensive line overnight. It's probably the most unheralded position on the field except maybe the punter, but I think our offensive line was the big reason why our offense put up such astronomical numbers last season. Bradford rarely got touched, and we could pick apart defenses.

Last Year's Redshirts

We had a few redshirts last year (19 to be exact). Here they are:

DB Derrick Bradley, RB Jermie Calhoun, LB Daniel Franklin, OL Ben Habern, DB Lamar Harris, LB Dylan Hughley, DB Joseph Ibiloye, LB Emmanuel Jones, OT Jarvis Jones, QB Landry Jones, DE David King, OL Brian Lepak, DT Stacy McGee, TE Josh New, QB Ben Sherrard, TE James Toms, DT Casey Walker, DE R.J. Washington, K Tress Way.

New Players To Watch

Obviously we know about what we're getting from guys who were on the field regularly. But there's some new recruits or redshirts from last year who you should keep an eye on, especially in the spring game:

DE R.J. Washington - This guy was a 5 star recruit coming out of Keller, Texas. He was redshirted last year, but everyone was real excited about him. I'm not sure how much of the field he'll see with really only one DE graduating, but I would expect to see him become a part of the rotation. Here's some YouTube highlights.

WR's Jameel Owens and DeJuan Miller - Both of these guys were recruited last year as well. They both have good size. Owens is 6'3" 210 and Miller is 6'5" 200. While Ryan Broyles will be one of the obvious starters, and upperclassmen Adron Tennell and Brandon Caleb will be given every opportunity to win the other spot, I would expect to see both of these guys challenge for significant playing time and/or a starting spot. They were both 4 star recruits, so both of them have the talent to be big impact receivers. I would expect one of them to step up big time and impress.

S Quinton Carter - He isn't really new, but I would love to see him step up. In the playing time he did get, he was sort of a spark plug. He hits hard and would play well as a strong safety I think. We're going to need a centerfielder out there with a little bit more range and fluid hips in and out of turns, but I liked what I saw of Carter last year. Here are some samples of his work:

Ben Habern, Stephen Good and Jarvis Jones - All of these offensive lineman were highly rated in recruiting services. Jarvis Jones was a starter at LSU as a freshman before he transferred to OU. They all have the size to be successful in Division 1 college football, but will their skills transfer? If so, our offensive line could be almost as good as it was last year, which was basically untouchable.

RB Jermie Calhoun and RB Justin Johnson - Both of these guys were 5 star running back recruits last year. With Murray, Brown and Madu, they didn't get any playing time last year. However, they are both obviously very talented, and the majority of the buzz has been about Calhoun (he hasn't seen the field at all, he was redshirted). With the possibility of Mossis Madu moving to WR, that could open up the possibility of one of these guys sliding into 3rd down back or quality depth back role. I'm particularly excited to see Calhoun finally.

If a lot of those guys step up and help fill in major roles vacated by departing players, I think we'll be close to last year's level of competitiveness. We are returning a lot of starters, especially on defense.

The next spring preview issue should involve the major holes that have opened up, and the players that we should expect to step up and fill in these roles.

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.