SB Nation - Andre Sexton

Anatomy of Momentum: Drive Before the Half Against OSU

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:41:21 -0000

The Context

Good offenses and good teams generally respond after the opponent scores a touchdown. That was the task Colt McCoy and the offense faced after Oklahoma State cut into the early Texas lead after Beau Johnson scored on a one-yard touchdown plunge to make it 17-7. Good offenses also operate well in the two-minute drill -- the Longhorns got the ball with 2:16 left on the clock. The game plan for Greg Davis was clearly to spread the field to take advantage of the Oklahoma State secondary, where Davis felt he had match ups favoring Texas -- that game plan meshed well with the two-minute drill Texas had to run with so little time left on the clock, though a switch to 11 personnel would ultimately help the drive find the end zone.

The other thing that good teams do is score before halftime. A score just before the half against Wyoming helped the Longhorns establish momentum heading into halftime and, when combined with Mack Brown's philosophy of deferring to the second half, scoring before halftime can give Texas two chances to score without the opponent being able to touch the football.

The Longhorns would not be able to start with a short field, however, as Oklahoma State kicker Quinn Sharp put the ball went into the end zone for a touchback. Texas would have to drive 80 yards for a momentum-swinging touchdown. Texas begins the drive with two timeouts.

The Plays

1st and 10 Texas 20

Texas, as they did throughout much of the first half, comes out in an empty set, with Dan Buckner in the flex, James Kirkendoll and Fozzy Whittaker split to the bottom of the screen, and Jordan Shipley and John Chiles split to the top:

OSU has three down linemen, with the Sam linebacker showing blitz and two deep safeties. Notice that James Kirkendoll is uncovered in the slot to the bottom of the screen.

Key Shot

Instead of blitzing the Sam backer, OSU brings the Mike and Will backers, causing a problem in the Texas protection scheme that leaves the strongside defensive end unblocked and headed for McCoy. The hot receiver on the play is Kirkendoll, but McCoy throws behind him incomplete -- probably just as well since a complete pass would have gained little yardage and kept the clock running, draining precious seconds.

2nd and 10 Texas 20

Texas stays with the same personnel group, while Oklahoma State stays with two safeties deep, but walks a defender up on Kirkendoll in the slot this time. Notice that Bill Young also dials up press coverage against Jordan Shipley.

Key Shot

Once again, McCoy looks short to Kirkendoll on a hitch and he breaks a tackle before being stood up by Andre Sexton. It's the most controversial play of the game and one that could have swung the momentum of the game considerably -- as Sexton drives Kirkendoll backwards, stopping his forward progress, he rips the ball out of his hands, seemingly giving Oklahoma State the ball inside the Texas 20 yardline.

A touchdown cuts the Texas lead to 17-14 just before the half. Instead, the referees, correctly in my opinion, rule that Kirkendoll's forward progress was stopped and Texas keeps the ball. Oklahoma State calls a timeout, ostensibly to either challenge the play or force the booth to look at it, but the play cannot be reviewed.

3rd and 6 Texas 24

Same personnel for Texas, except the strong side of the field is now at the top of the screen. OSU has two safeties deep and is not in press coverage against Shipley this time. OSU rushes the linebacker in the middle of the field.

Key Shot

Flushed from the pocket by a twisting OSU linemen, McCoy throws on the run, finding Chiles wide open down the sideline -- Chiles either ran a stop route or broke off his route. Either way, it's the biggest catch of his Texas career for the former quarterback, who gains 16 yards and keeps the drive alive.

1st and 10 Texas 40

Texas keeps the same personnel on the field. Notice that OSU is once again pressing Shipley at the line of scrimmage, with two safeties deep and three down linemen.

Key Shot

Two seconds into the play, seeing no one open downfield, McCoy bails from the pocket and breaks a tackle to pick up two yards. Texas calls a timeout to stop the clock, leaving them with one remaining in the half.

2nd and 8 Texas 42

Texas changes their personnel grouping for the first time on the drive, bringing in EBS and keeping Whittaker in the backfield. Malcolm Williams comes in at split end, while Marquise Goodwin takes over the flanker position. Notice that OSU keeps two deep safeties, while walking the nickel back up close to the line of scrimmage over Shipley.

Key Shot

Since McCoy got a little antsy in the pocket on the last play, Davis calls for max protection, keeping both EBS and Whittaker in to block.

Kyle Hix gets beat on the right side of the line, but McCoy still has a perfect pocket to deliver the football downfield. Given that only three receivers are in the route, McCoy probably knows that Shipley will create enough separation on his out route to be able to deliver the football. Shipley gets the necessary separation and McCoy throws a strike for a 16-yard gain. The OSU safety on that side of the field got so much depth on the snap that he never even got close to Shipley on the play -- it's understandable that OSU didn't want to give up the big play, but the deep coverage should have been close enough to at least make it a smaller window for McCoy to throw into.

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 42

Texas stays with the same personnel, while OSU keeps two safeties deep and three down linemen -- the same look they have shown throughout the drive. Notice that the Mike and Will linebackers are showing blitz.

Key Shot

The linebackers both drop into coverage and EBS and Whittaker both release as a result.

However, none of the receivers gain enough separation for McCoy to deliver a pass, so he heads out of the pocket and towards the sideline, getting out of bounds after picking up two yards, preserving the final Texas timeout.

2nd and 8 Oklahoma State 40

Texas stays in 11 personnel, while Oklahoma State blitzes both the Mike and the Will backers.

Key Shot

With six men on the line of scrimmage to pick up five defenders, the Longhorns pick up the blitz and allow McCoy time to throw downfield to Shipley, who beats Perrish Cox in one-on-one coverage -- the safety deep on that side of the field comes up the first-down marker and stops.

Shipley is open, but McCoy overthrows the pass by several feet -- another replay shows that Shipley cut farther inside than McCoy anticipated, leaving the pass thrown too long. Had McCoy and Shipley been on the same page, the play would have gone for a touchdown.

3rd and 8 Oklahoma State 40

Texas substitutes for the 3rd and long play, taking out EBS and bringing in Dan Buckner to play the flex tight end position, while inserting Chiles at flanker. As usual, Oklahoma State has two deep safeties and three down linemen.

Key Shot

Oklahoma State drops back in man coverage and although no Texas receivers can gain separation, since the defensive backs arent facing McCoy, after he eludes a defensive lineman, he has open field once he leaves the pocket:

McCoy picks up 19 yards on the play and slides down at the 21, avoiding a hit -- McCoy has done much better at avoiding unnecessary hits this season.

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 21

The clock starts after placement of the ball and McCoy gets to the line of scrimmage quickly and spikes the ball to stop the clock.

2nd and 10 Oklahoma State 21

Texas lines up in 11 personnel, with Chiles at split end and Williams at flanker. OSU has three linebackers on the field and three down linemen, with the nickel back lined up well inside of Shipley and a safety over the top.

Key Shot

Oklahoma State blitzes the nickel back and the Sam backer. The line picks up the blitzers well, but Michael Huey and Chris Hall don't communicate well, as Hall picks up the Sam backer and Huey helps out Hix on the defensive end, leaving the defensive tackle free to come through, with only Whittaker standing between him and the quarterback. The tackle sheds Whittaker quickly and forces McCoy to throw the ball away, but picks up a personal foul pentalty for hitting McCoy in the helmet after he released the football:

1st and 10 Oklahoma State 11

Texas keeps the same personnel on the field, while Oklahoma State rushes four and drops back in man-to-man coverage.

Key Shot

The play is designed to go to Shipley on a double move -- a curl and go -- but Malcolm Williams breaks open running the back of the end zone and McCoy finds him as the pocket begins to collapse.

It's not an easy catch for Williams, who had to fully extend while making sure that he got his foot down, but McCoy helped by throwing an extremely catchable ball -- had the Texas quarterback really zipped it, the ball might have gone through the hands of the talented receiver.

Final Totals

Ten plays for 80 yards, 2:09 expired. Four of seven passing for 47 yards by McCoy, who also added 23 yards on three carries. One potential touchdown ovethrown on the slightly miscommunication by McCoy and Shipley. One catch for four yards by Kirkendoll. One catch for 16 yards by Chiles. One catch for 16 yards by Shipley. One catch for 11 yards and a touchdown by Williams. One 10-yard roughing the passer penalty on Oklahoma State. One miscommunication on the offensive line between Huey and Hall that allowed the defensive tackle to get in the backfield and hit McCoy.

The Verdict

Texas dodged a major bullet early in the drive when the officials ruled Kirkendoll's forward progressed stopped, negating the potential fumble and recovery by Oklahoma State. However, Kirkendoll must do a better job of protecting the football with both hands in traffic and have a better understanding of when he can no longer pick up yards on a play and is better off just going down.

The drive also featured a smart adjustment by Greg Davis. After getting little out of the empty set and having McCoy leave the pocket relatively quickly, he went back to 11 personnel to give McCoy more protection and allow him to stand in the pocket longer. It almost paid off with the pass to Shipley before eventually resulting in the touchdown pass to Williams.

The other key element of the drive was the scrambling of McCoy. Even though he did leave the pocket early on his two two-yard scrambles, he avoided potentially drive-killing sacks that would have also forced the Longhorns to use their last timeout, preserving it in the case of emergency. More importantly, though, it showed just how difficult it is to defend the Longhorns when McCoy leaves the pocket, especially in man coverage -- his 19-yard run was probably the biggest positive play of the drive before the touchdown pass to Williams.

Scoring before the half is also a major swing of momentum and it virtually put the game out of reach at that point, as the Longhorns went up 24-7 -- there was no way that defense was going to give up 17 points in the second half. By scoring the touchdown, Texas demoralized Oklahoma State going into halftime and completely took the biggest crowd in Oklahoma State history out of the game for the remainder of the contest. There's also something about Texas running the two-minute offense, as McCoy has seemingly found his rhythm several times this season just before halftime, notably against Wyoming to finally jumpstart the Longhorn offense.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

Browse more photos »

One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

---

Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Oklahoma St. Cowboys

Seth C — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:12 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers // Game 8: Texas A&M Aggies // Game 9: Kansas Jayhawks // Game 10: Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It seems that the preseason question of the year is if Oklahoma State is the 2008 version of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. I've mentioned before that I'm not completely sold on Oklahoma St., despite the fact that I do beleive they may be the most offensively well-balanced team in the Big 12.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at Oklahoma St.

General Information

Opponent	Oklahoma State University
Nickname	Cowboys
Location	Stillwater, OK
Enrollment	23,307
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
2008 Record	9-3 (5-3)
Starters Returning/Lost	14/8
Blogs	None
Links	2009 Media Guide 2009 Game Day Guide

Statistics


Statistic	Oklahoma State	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	242.23 (38)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	245.46 (8)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	487.69 (6)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	40.77 (9)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	164.71 (5)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	1.23 (17)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	267.69 (109)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	137.85 (52)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	405.54 (93)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	28.08 (76)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	130.81 (74)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	1.15 (107)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	5.15 (87)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	0.38 (35)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Kendall Hunter (241 / 1,555 yds / 16 TD)
Passing	Zac Robinson (204-314 / 3,064 yds / 25 TD / 10 Int)
Receiving	Dez Bryant (87 rec. / 1,480 yds / 19 TD)
Tackles	Andre Sexton (100)
Sacks	Jeremiah Price (3.0)
Interceptions	Perrish Cox (2)

A Few Things

What Worries Me: Here's the thing. Oklahoma St. should be improved this year and I can understand how folks think that OSU is going to be this year's version of Texas Tech. I can't base any of my thoughts on OSU on something rational and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys prove me wrong, but I still can't get it out of my head that OSU just didn't show up against Texas Tech, a team that many thought up until that time, were contemporaries. I can understand the losses to Oklahoma and Oregon, but not even showing up bothers me. Maybe I should just let it go, but it's stuck with me through the offseason.
Balanced and Explosive Offense: We talked in the Kansas prospectus about the Jayhawk trio and there's no doubt in my mind that Oklahoma State's trio is superior. Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and the workhorse of the offense, Kendall Hunter, are big-time players. I don't know if they'll surpass last year's offensive numbers, but they'll match them. The one thing that worries me is that all-world tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, has moved onto the NFL, which means that Robinson's second options is no longer available. In fact, Bryant had 87 catches last year, which was more Oklahoma State's three other pass catchers, Pettigrew (42), Damiam Davis (19) and Kendall Hunter (22). Pettigrew's possible replacements, Jamal Moseley and Wilson Youman, had a combined 6 catches last year.
Play Making Defense Wanted: There's really not a Big 12 defense that played incredibly well last year, however, the Cowboys' defense was 93rd in the nation in total defense and was 109th in pass defense (more on that below). On top of that, OSU had serious trouble getting to any quarterback and was 107th in the nation at sacking the QB last year. The problem is that last year's unit had very little production and that also means there's very little production returning. I know that Bill Young tends to work miracles with defenses and to be honest, I think OSU has recruited very well over the years, but I'm not convinced that changing the defensive coordinator means that Oklahoma St. deserves to be a top 10 team, especially when the defense hasn't proven that it deserves this spot.
Replacing Three-Fourths of a Secondary: Much like Texas Tech, OSU must replace both safeties and a cornerback (why is no one else talking about that?). Projected FS Lucien Antoine had 1 tackle last year and projected SS Victor Johnson had 19. Safety is always a big position to fill and considering OSU was less than stellar last year defending the pass, look for this to be an issue for Oklahoma St. this year.
Spaced Out Schedule: The one thing that I like about Oklahoma State is that the Cowboys really don't have an incredibly tough stretch and they have eight games at home. Opening against Georgia and Houston at home should be relatively easy. the next big game comes against Texas, again, at home, with a week of Iowa State between the Horns and Texas Tech. Then another week against an inferior opponent in Colorado, and then Oklahoma. In other words, there's not this tough three game stretch like so many teams faced last year and there's no doubt that the schedule favors Oklahoma St.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Oklahoma St. Cowboys?

1

15 votes

2

12 votes

3

42 votes

4

128 votes

5

91 votes

288 votes | Poll has closed

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

RPT — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:30:08 -0000

Our Colorado cohorts at The Ralphie Report have once again solicited the powers that be in the Big 12 Blogosphere here at SB Nation to determine the SB Nation Preseason All-Big 12 Team. As Rock M Nation's representative in the voting process, here's how my ballot will appear. It must be noted that bloggers are NOT allowed to vote for players on teams they cover. As an aside, I must give a major shoutout to the SB Nation tech team, whose "Autotag" tool probably just imploded upon linking this post.

On to the ballot!

Quarterback (2)

Nominees: Jerrod Johnson (TAMU), Austen Arnaud (ISU), Taylor Potts (TTU), Sam Bradford (OU), Zac Robinson (OSU), Blaine Gabbert, Robert Griffin (BU), Colt McCoy, Todd Reesing (KU), Daniel Thomas (KSU)

The Vote: Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford

Notes: You can go around looking for ways to justify other picks, but it's going to be McCoy and Bradford at the top. I'm just glad we're selecting two quarterbacks so I don't have to decide between them and draw the ire of one of the fan bases. At the same time, you've got to feel for Reesing, Robinson and Griffin, dynamic players who'd be shoo-ins in a lot of other conferences.

Running Back (2)

Nominees: Roy Helu Jr. (NU), Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Christine Michael (TAMU), Chris Brown (OU), DeMarco Murray (OU), Kendall Hunter (OSU), Derrick Washington, Darrell Scott (CU), Rodney Stewart (CU), Jay Finley (BU), Jake Sharp (KU), Cody Johnson (UT), Vondrell McGee (UT), Foswhitt Whittaker (UT)

The Vote: Kendall Hunter, Chris Brown, DeMarco Murray

Notes: I went with the Oklahoma trio here. Kendall Hunter may well be the best back in the conference. Brown and Murray are a formidable 1-2 punch, assuming Murray is capable of staying healthy in 2009. Derrick Washington would have been my pick over one of these two had the blogger/player restrictions not been in place. I fought with including Roy Helu on the ballot. Helu came on hot at the end of 2008 (he averaged almost 10 yards a carry in a 157-yard day at Oklahoma) and could very well prove me wrong. Darrell Scott still has a lot to prove.

Fullback (1)

Nominees: Matt Clapp (OU), Jake Behrens (CU)

The Vote: Matt Clapp

Notes: I see no reason to unseat the reigning All-Big 12 fullback.

Wide Receiver (3)

Nominees: Ryan Tannehill (TAMU), Jeff Fuller (TAMU), Darius Darks (ISU), Detron Lewis (TTU), Edward Britton (TTU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, David Gettis (BU), Dezmon Briscoe (KU), Jordan Shipley (UT), Kerry Meier (KU), Brandon Banks (KSU), Jonathan Wilson (KU), Malcolm Williams (UT)

The Vote: Dez Bryant, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley

Notes: Bryant has the unenviable task of trying to replace Michael Crabtree as the conference's best receiver, even though some call Bryant "a superior receiver" to Crabtree. Briscoe continues to be undervalued by the conference as a whole, and Shipley -- one of the conference's most consistent producers over the last few seasons -- has seen his stock rise in the national eye since last year's Red River Shootout. Honorable mentions go out to Kerry Meier, Brandon Banks and Detron Lewis, and player to watch mentions go out to Jeff Fuller and Malcolm Williams.

Rest of the ballot after the jump!

Tight End (2)

Nominees: Mike McNeill (NU), Jamie McCoy (TAMU), Jermaine Gresham (OU), Andrew Jones, Riar Geer (CU), Patrick Devenny (CU), Tim Biere (KU)

The Vote: Jermaine Gresham and Mike McNeill

Notes: Gresham is the no-brainer with the first vote. I know we're supposed to scoff at Nebraska right now, but I feel like McNeill is the only Husker that's being underhyped. A tight end like that is a tremendous asset in the process of breaking in a new quarterback.

Offensive Line (5)

Nominees: Jacob Hickman (NU), Mike Smith (NU), Brandon Carter (TTU), Marlon Winn (TTU), Trent Williams (OU), Brady Bond (OSU), Russell Okung (OSU), Kurtis Gregory, Elvis Fisher, Dan Hoch, Tim Barnes, Nate Solder (CU), Ryan Miller (CU), Adam Ulatoski (UT), Chris Hall (UT), Nick Stringer (KSU), JD Walton (Baylor), James Barnard (BU), Charlie Tanner (UT), Jeremiah Hatch (KU), Kyle Hixx (UT)

The Vote: Brandon Carter, Trent Williams, Russell Okung, Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall

Notes: I'd be lying to you if I said I had hard and fast reasoning for selecting individual lineman. I do hope the other Big 12 bloggers give some love to Gregory and Barnes, who we've extolled here at RMN many times.

Interior D-Line (2)

Nominees: Ndamukong Suh (NU), Eddie Brown (Texas A&M), Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech), DeMarcus Granger (OU), Gerald McCoy (OU), Jaron Baston, Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU), Lamarr Houston (UT)

The Vote: Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy

Notes: Another relatively painless selection. Even a second team of any two of the trio of Granger, Fitzgerald and Houston would be extremely stout.

Defensive End (2)

Nominees: Pierre Allen (NU), Barry Turner (NU), Matt Featherston (TAMU), Jeremy Beal (OU), Auston English (OU), Brian Coulter, Jacquies Smith, Brandon Herald (KSU), Jake Laptad (KU), Sergio Kindle (UT)

The Vote: Sergio Kindle, Auston English

Notes: I know Jeremy Beal is getting most of the pundit love at DE for Oklahoma, but I remain a massive apologist for English when he's healthy. Maybe it's all just fallout from seeing English singlehandedly dominate Mizzou in person in Norman back in 2007. And, oh yeah, Sergio Kindle is a physical freak of nature.

Linebacker (4)

Nominees: Von Miller (TAMU), Brian Duncan (TTU), Marlon Williams (TTU), Keenan Clayton (OU), Travis Lewis (OU), Patrick Lavine (OSU), Sean Weatherspoon, Luke Lambert, Jeff Smart (CU), Shaun Mohler (CU), BJ Beatty (CU), Joe Pawelek (BU), Andre Sexton (OSU), Rod Muckelroy (UT)

The Vote: Joe Pawelek, Andre Sexton, Travis Lewis, Von Miller

Notes: Let's all take a moment to pour one out for Sean Weatherspoon, who is required to be left off my ballot. Pawelek enters what seems like his 37th year of eligibility at Baylor. Sexton and Lewis are relatively safe picks, while I take my one big departure from security and select A&M's Von Miller as my fourth 'backer. Miller is really more of a "project pick" here, as he's got the physical skills to be as good any other linebacker nominated if he's able to carve out his own role in Joe Kines' system. If it all comes together, Miller could turn into the type of player Kines had in Demeco Ryans at Alabama.

Cornerback (2)

Nominees: Leonard Johnson (ISU), Jamar Wall (TTU), Dominique Franks (OU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Carl Gettis, Jimmy Smith (CU), Cha'pelle Brown (CU), Josh Moore (KSU), Justin Thornton (KU), Daymond Patterson (KU), Chykie Brown (UT), Deon Beasley (UT)

The Vote: Dominique Franks, Josh Moore

Notes: A surprisingly solid list of nominees here. Franks was a second team All-Big 12 selection last year, and Moore quietly had a good year in the midst of a forgettable season for K-State. Brown would have been next on my radar, with Johnson, Wall, and Beasley close behind.

Safety (2)

Nominees: Larry Asante (NU), Trent Hunter (TAMU), Jordan Pugh (TAMU), Kenji Jackson, Jordan Lake (BU), Earl Thomas (UT), Blake Gideon (UT), Darrell Stuckey (KU), Phillip Strozier (KU)

The Vote: Jordan Lake, Darrell Stuckey

Notes: I'm probably drawing the wrath of the Burnt Orange Nation community by excluding two very talented young safeties in Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon, but Lake and Stuckey are certainly deserving of the nods here. Lake means to the Baylor defensive backfield what Pawelek means to Baylor's linebacking corps. Stuckey was ALL over the field at Arrowhead last year, and has to be the top safety in the Big 12 North (this despite my almost irrational love of Kenji Jackson).

Kicker (1)

Nominees: Alex Henery (NU), Hunter Lawrence (UT)

The Vote: Alex Henery

Notes: Hard to make the call here, but the cannon attached to Henery's hip gave Nebraska the win that COMPLETELY changed the outlook for the Huskers in 2009.

Punter (1)

Nominees: Mike Brandtner (ISU), Jake Harry, Derek Epperson (BU), Ryan Doerr (KSU), Alonzo Rojas (KU)

The Vote: Derek Epperson

Notes: Epperson is the returning leader in punt average, which is good enough for me. My apologies to Jake Harry.... THE FOURTH.

Kick Returner (1)

Nominees: Cyrus Gray (TAMU), Leonard Johnson (ISU), Perrish Cox (OSU), Dez Bryant (OSU), Jordan Shipley (UT)

The Vote: Perrish Cox

Notes: Cox and Bryant are somewhat interchangeable here, and since Bryant's already feeling the love, I decided to go with Cox. I would have had no qualms with Shipley in this slot either.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the overall strengths and situational weaknesses of what will surely be one of the better offenses in the country in 2009. But to stay in the Top 10 this year, OSU will need to have a defense that can at least slow down the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, and (hopefully they fit into the "dangerous" category) Missouri. Will they?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 113.2 (#27)
Success Rate+: 107.4 (#40)
PPP+: 120.5 (#22)

Standard Downs S&P+: 104.2 (#49)
Passing Downs S&P+: 117.7 (#27)

Redzone S&P+: 98.8 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 130.8 (#11)
Q2 S&P+: 114.8 (#29)
Q3 S&P+: 90.8 (#88)
Q4 S&P+: 95.6 (#68)

1st Down S&P+: 104.2 (#51)
2nd Down S&P+: 105.2 (#45)
3rd Down S&P+: 128.4 (#15)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 108.6 (#41)
Rushing SR+: 108.4 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 109.0 (#48)

Standard Downs: 99.8 (#65)
Passing Downs: 149.6 (#9)

Redzone: 115.1 (#28)

Line Yards+: 115.9 (#17)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.8 (#17)
Passing SR+: 106.2 (#37)
Passing PPP+: 127.6 (#17)

Standard Downs: 117.7 (#27)
Passing Downs: 112.5 (#37)

Redzone: 88.6 (#87)

Adj. Sack Rate: 2.7% (#119)

My ongoing theory about OSU's defense was that they were decent in September, unbelievable in October, and poor afterward. Looking at individual game "+" scores, that seems just about right (click to enlarge).

In actuality, OSU's defense seemed to thrive, in part, with the element of surprise. I think about 98% of Missouri fans would have voted for last year's OSU Defensive Coordinator, Tim Beckman, for Assistant of the Year, after watching the 'Poke D confuse Chase Daniel like nobody else had in his three years as starter. He just could not get a feel for where OSU was attacking from and when they dropping into coverage. Colt McCoy was similarly confused--seriously, holding both Missouri and Texas under 30 points was an extremely impressive accomplishment. Between those two games, they also held Baylor to just 6 points. Beckman emptied his bag of tricks, apparently, in the process. When October turned into November, OSU was tapped out. They looked decent against Iowa State, but they gave up 56 points to Texas Tech, 61 to Oklahoma, and 42 to Oregon to end the season. All three of those teams had outstanding offenses, but OSU had fallen from one of the top 2-3 defenses in the league to being distinctly average, or even a little worse.

The downward trend, combined with Beckman's departure to Toledo, make this an impossible defense to figure out for 2009. To meet expectations, the Cowboy D needs to closely resemble its pre-October form, but can it? Was the success due to Beckman's pulling of the strings? Did they just run out of gas? Hard to tell, though it bears mentioning that OSU's biggest regression in terms of pre- and post-November 1 numbers came in Q4. Their Q4 Success Rates + fell from 148.3 before November 1 to 84.6 after, a 42.9% drop. Q4 PPP+ fell 35.9%, and overall Q4 S&P+ fell 36.4%. Sounds like they may need a bit of extra conditioning work this summer.

Looking at OSU's full-year numbers, here's what we know for sure (or at least almost for sure):

Speed in the secondary paid off. OSU's success rate figures were only decent in pass defense, but they were able to limit the big play pretty well. I say that was because of speed--it could have also been due simply to good tackling or good positioning of the safeties. With guys like Perrish Cox back there, though, speed does appear to be an asset in Stillwater.
It is quite possible that the LBs made the DL look good at times. OSU's LB corps is absolutely a strength of this defense, and considering OSU's atrocious sack rates and good line yardage figures, it's possible that the LBs' tackling ability prevented a lot of big rushing plays.
The D-Line was quite possibly a liability. Here's a list of FBS teams with worse Adjusted Sack Rates than Oklahoma State: Idaho. That's it. That's awful. They faced some of the best offensive lines in the country--Texas Tech (#1), Oklahoma (#2), Missouri (#5)--but...Idaho!
The per-quarter numbers lend credence to the idea that Beckman's gameplans were the best thing OSU had going for them. They were dominant in Q1 but started to fade thereafter. This makes sense thinking back to the MU-OSU game. MU drove for a (controversial) field goal on their first drive (controversial, both because Gary Pinkel probably should have gone for it on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, and because Chase Coffman quite possibly scored a TD on second down), but they followed that drive up with their first three-and-out of the season and only managed three points in their four second-quarter drives. Granted, Mizzou missed two field goals in the process, but facts are facts--OSU shut Mizzou down like nobody had in two years.
Once leveraged into Passing Downs, opponents' offenses were very much vulnerable to a big play from the Cowboy Defense. They were okay on Standard Downs, but quite good on Passing Downs and third downs.

The biggest story of the offseason for the OSU defense has been the return of Defensive Coordinator Bill Young to his alma mater. Young has a strong resume, having served as coordinator for an improving Kansas defense from 2003-07 and as Miami-FL DC last year. What change can be expected with Young at the helm? Here are the first-year totals and changes from Young's tenures in Lawrence and Miami.

First, Kansas.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Kansas (2002)	472.4	6.8	256.2	5.8	216.2	8.6
Kansas (2003)	412.6	5.9	194.7	4.9	217.9	7.3
Change	-12.7%	-13.2%	-24.0%	-15.5%	+0.8%	-15.1%

Then, Miami.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Miami (2007)	345.9	5.1	133.8	3.4	212.2	7.4
Miami (2008)	317.5	5.0	151.8	4.0	165.6	6.4
Change	-8.2%	-2.0%	+13.5%	+17.6%	-22.0%	-13.5%

Needless to say, at both Kansas and Miami-FL, Young wasn't replacing a DC who had done well enough to earn himself a head coaching job at a mid-level FBS school. At Kansas, he inherited one of the worst defenses in the country (seriously...6.8 yards per play??) and made them relatively respectable; he also created the "How to Stop Brad Smith" blueprint that everybody in the North not named Kevin Cosgrove followed for the next three seasons, for what that's worth. At Miami, he took over a respectable defense (33rd in Total Defense in 2007) and made them a bit better (28th) despite a youth movement. In Stillwater, if you are to see improvement, it will probably be more of the Miami variety. OSU is experienced but not particularly deep, but if they're simply better able to execute in the fourth quarter this year, it could make a hefty difference.

Defensive Line

Ugo Chinasa certainly looks the part

2008 Unit Ranking: #55 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Ugo Chinasa (6'5, 253, Jr.)
DE Derek Burton (6'3, 285, Sr.)
DT Swanson Miller (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DT Shane Jarka (6'3, 285, Jr.)
DE Richetti Jones (6'3, 253, So.)
DE Jeremiah Price (6'2, 260, Sr.)
DT Chris Donaldson (6'2, 286, Jr.)
DT Nigel Nicholas (6'3, 285, RSFr.)

Young's first task: put together a better defensive line. Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Linebackers

Mizzou fans should definitely know Patrick Lavine's name.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Patrick Lavine (6'2, 222, Sr.)
Orie Lemon (6'1, 249, Sr.)
Andre Sexton (6'0, 217, Sr.)
Justin Gent (6'2, 235, Jr.)
Donald Booker (5'11, 235, Sr.)
James Thomas (6'0, 205, So.)

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Secondary

Is this the year Perrish Cox becomes known for being more than just a great kick returner?

2008 Unit Ranking: #29 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
CB Terrance Anderson (5'11, 185, Sr.)
S Johnny Thomas (6'0, 195, So.)
S Lucien Antoine (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Maurice Gray (5'9, 180, Sr.)
S Markelle Martin (6'1, 190, So.)
S Victor Johnson (6'1, 190, So.)
CB Brodrick Brown (5'8, 180, RSFr.)

Again, Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more.

Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Thomas, Antoine, Martin, and Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year. OSU's secondary benefitted greatly from my strength of schedule adjustment, but while they were strong in terms of big plays allowed (PPP+), stats like Success Rate+ and completion percentage allowed (62.9% in 2008) need to improve.

Special Teams

Dan Bailey: good. Those shoes: atrocious.

2008 Unit Ranking: #6 net punting, #2 punt returns, #18 kickoff returns

Projected Starters
K Dan Bailey (6'1, 185, Jr.)
P Quinn Sharp (6'1, 177, RSFr.)
KR Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
PR Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)

If Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Summary

It does appear that Bill Young's got some athletes to work with here, and experienced ones to boot. If the projected starters hold, OSU will start eight seniors in 2009, including very proven quantities at linebacker. Young is a good defensive coordinator, but it's hard to tell what to expect from his defense this year since it appears that Tim Beckman's gameplans were the best thing they had going for them in 2008. I don't foresee a ton of improvement from this unit in 2009, but if they can manage to be a bit more consistent year-round, and if they can simply improve marginally in the fourth quarter (or at least, don't fall apart in November fourth quarters), then they might make enough plays to pave the way for the offense to win the game for them.

Last week, when talking about Nebraska, I mentioned that it was the offense's job not to lose the game and the defense's job to win it. In Stillwater, it's the exact opposite. Just make some plays, make stops on passing downs, and force some turnovers, and if Dez Bryant has any help in the receiving corps, then OSU could be on its way to ten wins. I don't think they have enough to win the South, but this should be a damn good team.

---

Projections on Friday.

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Defensive Lines

Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return. Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference. Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense. Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam. If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards. The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

Oklahoma (17)
Texas (14)
Texas Tech (11)
Oklahoma State (9)
Baylor (8)
Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first. ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

Special Teams

Oklahoma State (K Dan Bailey, PR Dez Bryant, KR Perrish Cox)
Oklahoma (PR Ryan Broyles, KR DeMarco Murray, K Jimmy Stevens)
Texas (K Hunter Lawrence, P Justin Tucker, KR Malcolm Williams)
Texas Tech (K Donnie Carona, P Jonathan LaCour, KR Edward Britton)
Baylor (KR Mikail Baker, K Ben Parks, P Derek Epperson)
Texas A&M (PR Jordan Pugh, KR Cyrus Gray, ...?)

No complete unit among the group, but OSU is the closest.

Coaches

Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

If I rank them again in 5 minutes, I'll probably get a completely different order. I didn't say this was scientific.

2009 South Rankings

Texas (43)
Oklahoma (43)
Oklahoma State (40)
Texas Tech (29)
Baylor (19)
Texas A&M (15)

Honestly, with the status of OU's offense, this surprises me, but there OU is, right in the thick of things. So how do the schedules shake out?

-- Schedules --

Baylor

10/10 - at Oklahoma
10/17 - at Iowa State
10/24 - Oklahoma State
10/31 - Nebraska
11/7 - at Missouri
11/14 - Texas
11/21 - at Texas A&M
11/28 - Texas Tech

North schedule: @ ISU, NU, @ MU. An unfortunate slate for Baylor, really. Yeah, they can probably take out NU at home, but traveling to Ames makes that one something of a tossup (I picked ISU in Monday's North preview, and I'm already regretting that one) and traveling to Columbia gives MU an edge there. I say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, UT, Tech. Hmm. They're going to win one of these games, but I'm not sure which one. Tech, maybe? We'll go with Tech. Two upsets here is possibly too much to ask, but it's not unthinkable. 1-2.

South road slate: @ OU, @ ATM. You know Baylor will be gunning for their first bowl since Grant Teaff next year, and with a likely 3-1 non-conference record (@ Wake Forest, UConn, NW'ern State, Kent State), the bowl bid might come down to the ATM game. They stomped ATM in Waco this year...but for now we'll go with the home team. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Oklahoma

10/10 - Baylor
10/17 - vs Texas
10/24 - at Kansas
10/31 - Kansas State
11/7 - at Nebraska
11/14 - Texas A&M
11/21 - at Texas Tech
11/28 - Oklahoma State

North schedule: @ KU, KSU, @ NU. The trip to Lincoln could be iffy, as could the trip to Lawrence, but...for now I'm sticking with 3-0.

South home slate: Baylor, ATM, OSU. Clearly, getting OSU at Owen Field is big. 3-0.

South road slate: vs UT, @ Tech. Only one true South road game for OU in '09, which gives them nice opportunity to break in a new O-line and possibly a new QB with fewer setbacks. But the youth will still bite them here. I favor UT in Dallas, and the trip to Lubbock screams "setback". 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 6-2.

Oklahoma State

10/10 - at Texas A&M
10/17 - Missouri
10/24 - at Baylor
10/31 - Texas
11/7 - at Iowa State
11/14 - Texas Tech
11/21 - Colorado
11/28 - at Oklahoma

North schedule: MU, @ISU, CU. This sets up very well for OSU. The trip to Ames might be a landmine if the Jack Trice Winds play a factor...but probably not. 3-0.

South home slate: UT, Tech. BIG games here. I say they beat Tech, but...Texas? Are they ready for that? That could decide the South right there. I change my mind later, I'm sure, but I'm going to say yes...yes, they can win that game. 2-0.

South road slate: @ATM, @BU, @OU. The Baylor trip could be a major landmine, but we'll say OSU pulls it off for now. They still lose to OU, though. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas

10/10 - Colorado
10/17 - vs Oklahoma
10/24 - at Missouri
10/31 - at Oklahoma State
11/7 - Texas Tech
11/14 - at Baylor
11/21 - Kansas
11/28 - at Texas A&M

North schedule: CU, @MU, KU. Yeah, 3-0.

South home slate: vs OU, Tech. Only one true South home game, but they'll TCB. 2-0.

South road slate: @OSU, @BU, @ATM. I said OSU would win? Guess that means 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas A&M

10/10 - Oklahoma State
10/17 - at Kansas State
10/24 - at Texas Tech
10/31 - Iowa State
11/7 - at Colorado
11/14 - at Oklahoma
11/21 - Baylor
11/28 - Texas

North schedule: @KSU, ISU, @CU. 3-0? 0-3? Anything's possible here. I'll go homefield and say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, BU, UT. 1-2.

South road slate: @Tech, @OU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Texas Tech

10/10 - Kansas State
10/17 - at Nebraska
10/24 - Texas A&M
10/31 - Kansas
11/7 - at Texas
11/14 - at Oklahoma State
11/21 - Oklahoma
11/28 - at Baylor

North schedule: KSU, @NU, KU. 2-1.

South home slate: @UT, @OSU, @BU. Tech's been much better on the road this year than previous years, but without Harrell and Crabtree (and over half the O-line), there will be regression. I'll still have them beating BU, but that's it. 1-2.

South road slate: ATM, OU. 2-0.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Standings

Oklahoma State 7-1
Texas 7-1
Oklahoma 6-2
Texas Tech 5-3
Baylor 2-6
Texas A&M 2-6

Summary

I don't think I'm giving Baylor enough credit. They'll probably beat ATM or OSU or something, but who knows. Also, I'm probably giving OSU too much credit--expectations could overtake them. Honestly I'm already wanting to bump UT ahead of OSU and BU ahead of ATM, but that's just me thinking too hard.

SB Nation - Andre Sexton

Anatomy of Momentum: Drive Before the Half Against OSU

The Context

The Plays

Final Totals

The Verdict

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Oklahoma St. Cowboys

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers // Game 8: Texas A&M Aggies // Game 9: Kansas Jayhawks // Game 10: Oklahoma St. Cowboys

General Information

Statistics

Top Returners

A Few Things

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Oklahoma St. Cowboys?

1

2

3

4

5

2nd Annual SB Nation Big 12 All-Conference Team Ballot

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

South Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 South Rankings

-- Schedules --

Baylor

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Standings

Summary