SB Nation - Orie Lemon

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

---

Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 09.02.09

Seth C — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:25:42 -0000

Odds and Ends

No Time for Odds and Ends! There's always time for one, if you're into Twitter, go follow the Fake Mike Leach and don't forget that you can also follow Double-T Nation on Twitter.

Texas Tech Football

A Bevy of LAJ Preview Articles: You have your work cut out for you this morning as the LAJ staff has been busy. I want to start off with the article by Adam Zuvanich on remodeling of the roster, which is where I think quite a few Texas Tech fans think about the state of the program. There have been years where the M.O. was rebuild and not reload and Zuvanich takes a look at all of the question mark positions in great detail, including the receiver position, post-Crabtree. IR Detron Lewis on the expectations of this group:

"We’re going to have a better receiving corps than we did last year," said the 6-0, 205-pound junior, Tech’s leading returning receiver in both catches and yards. "If we all get on the same page, we’re going to have the best receiving corps to ever come through here."

Don Williams writes about building a program at Texas Tech, and like most successful things in life, winning breeds more winning and DT Colby Whitlock likes the type of players at Texas Tech:

"Our defense is really starting to pick up," junior nose tackle Colby Whitlock said, "and a lot of the new recruits coming in are great athletes and great kids. Just the quality of recruit coming in right now is getting a lot better with our success."

And LB Marlon Williams can see a change as well:

"We’re getting better recruits and better playmakers on defense," Williams said. "I think when you put the improvement of our defense with the play of our offense — and the fact we’re getting guys who want to win, guys who are real passionate about football — they’re seeing our program rise to be up there with teams that have good legacies."

Zuvanich also writes about Texas Tech trying to keep pace with other universities with much larger athletic budgets and athletic director Gerald Myers gives honest answers about being in the red in the hopes of being able to compete on level (and sometimes at a greater level) with teams with much bigger budgets like Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas A&M. And speaking of keeping pace, one of the ways to increase revenue is to increase the seats and Williams has an update on the stadium expansion.

Williams also goes position-by-position about where Texas Tech currently stands and where the future lies.

Finally, Williams gives us an opinion piece, and I'm not one to usually complain, but I think Williams does a terrific job on these types of articles and I just wish he'd do more of them. In any event, the article focuses on how it's imperative that the Red Raiders cannot let an 11 win season simply pass them by, and that this 2009 incarnation must capitalize on that 2008 season.

Moore Smarter at Cornerback: LAJ's Don Williams features CB LaRon Moore who will be starting alongside fellow CB, Jamar Wall, who believes that Moore has become smarter at cornerback:

"He’s become smarter on the field,’’ Wall said. "He recognizes routes better. Something we both needed to do was get in the film room more. We’ve both been doing that a lot together, so us being smarter together on the field, watching film, knowing what’s going to happen, it gives you more confidence.’’

And cornerbacks coach Brian Mitchell believes that Moore made the move during Midnight Maneuvers:

Mitchell said he began to turn a corner shortly thereafter in the team’s early offseason program known as "Midnight Maneuvers.’’

"He just decided, ‘Hey, it’s my turn,’ ’’ Mitchell said. "He decided to commit himself day in and day out and within the drills. I’m very pleased with his progress.’’

Texas Tech Football Notebook: LAJ's Don Williams writes that CB Brent Nickerson will be the #3 cornerback, although Ruffin McNeill has already stated that S Will Ford and S Julius Howard will be a part of the nickel and dime packages . . . also of note, freshman CB D.J. Johnson will eventually work into the rotation . . . CB Jamar Wall talks about returning punts with former Red Raider, Danny Amendola:

Wall picked up some tips from Amendola when he was back in Lubbock before training camp.

"I caught some punts with him," Wall said. "He was telling me different things that he focuses on when he’s catching. His main (advice) was just get square. Standing there, you basically want to feel like the ball is going to drop and hit you in the face. It’s staying square, being able to catch it under control and make a play with it."

Torres' Second Chance: DT's Alex Ybarra talks with WR Alexander Torres and his second chance at Texas Tech after being injured at the Air Force Academy. Receivers coach Dennis Simmons talks about Torres:

"He’s kind of a throwback football player in my opinion, or as most people like to use the terminology now, a cold-weather receiver," Simmons said. "He’s gonna get open, may not always look pretty. I think he’s gonna surprise people with his speed a little bit."

And fellow flanker Jacoby Franks also talks about Torres:

"Toro is a big physical dude, catches everything and runs sharp routes," Franks said. "I learn a lot of things from Toro, honestly. I think we’re a real good one-two punch."

Fighting Sioux: DTN user and North Dakota fan, nodakroxfan, pointed us to SiouxSports.com for bloggy and message board material. The official site has some news and notes (pdf) up from yesterday as well as a video interview with the Fighting Sioux head coach Chris Mussman.

Fox34 and Double-T 104.3 Preview: I won't link to each segment, but for you out of towners (like myself) there's some video of a recent preview show hosted by Chris Level and Robert Giovannetti that aired in Lubbock. Scroll down for each segment.

Sportacular Interview with Leach: NewsChannel 11's Pete Christy talks with the Captain, Mike Leach.

Official Big 12 Preview: That's what you call a fancy subject line, as the official Big 12 site has officially previewed Texas Tech,

Big 12 Links: Bad news for the Oklahoma St. Cowboys as starting tight end Jamal Mosley has left the program and starting linebacker Orie Lemon suffered a season ending knee injury . . . speaking of OSU, Barking Carnival has their State of the Union . . . Rock M Nation has part two of the Beyond the Box Score national preview . . . ESPN's Tim Griffin ranks the Big 12 offenses and Texas Tech checks in at #5 . . .

Texas Tech Basketball

Basketball? Well, yeah. The Ft. Walton Sun's Randy Dickson talks with incoming guard/forward Brad Reese who sounds like he's excited about the season:

"This summer was basically learning about my teammates and what they like and what I like. It was about coming together as a family so when the season starts we will be on the same page and everything. So it was a good experience for me. "

Reese expects to play shooting guard or small forward and is excited about playing on the perimeter.

"I love it because that’s my natural (area)," he said. "I played down low (at center) in high school because we were (Class) 1A. And in JUCO I played the three (small forward).

"I can play (power forward) sometimes, but at the next level I have to play outside because (the inside players) are 6-foot-8, 6-foot-10. I’m long and athletic and I can use my athletic ability against smaller twos and threes. Hopefully that will help me out for my future plans and stuff."

Mizzou Links, 9-2-09

Bill C. — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:49:18 -0000

Mizzou-Illinois Links!

Mutigers.com: OFFICIAL RELEASE!!!!!!!1!
If the future belongs to youth, then things should be looking up for Tiger Football for a long while, because the 2009 Mizzou team takes the field as an extremely young squad.

While Head Coach Gary Pinkel would never offer up youth as an excuse for anything, the fact remains that this team is very young, with only 14 seniors on the roster. Of those, only seven are scheduled to start on offense/defense, with only eight total who are on the two-deep entering the season opener against Illinois. That’s a stark contrast to 2008, when the Tigers began the season with 12 senior starters (5 on offense and 7 on defense).
FightingIllini.com: OFFICIAL RELEASE!!!!!!!1!

Illinois' 2009 schedule has been rated as the toughest in the Big Ten and the 10th-toughest in the nation by The Sporting News. In the preseason rankings, eight Illinois opponents are either ranked or receiving votes.

The 2009 Illinois football schedule includes eight teams that played in bowl games a year ago -- Missouri, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Fresno State and Cincinnati -- including three that played in BCS games.

Illinois' first four FBS opponents in 2009 were a combined 40-13 last season.
IlliniHQ.com: Illinois depth chart released
The Missourian: Illinois players disappointed about end of Arch Rivalry game
The Missourian: Illinois freshman proves to be a dual threat

In his news conference Tuesday, Illinois coach Ron Zook said Terry Hawthorne has a chance to get into Saturday’s game. But Hawthorne likely won’t line up at wide receiver, the position he has earned so many accolades for playing. Hawthorne is more likely to get on the field as a defensive back.

Because of an injury to cornerback Miami Thomas, Hawthorne has been working on defense in practice.
Post-Dispatch: Fighting Illini's Terry Hawthorne could play in opener
Post-Dispatch: Pinkel enjoys series with Fighting Illini
KC Star: Pulp fiction? No, Mizzou's Weatherspoon said it
Post-Dispatch: Fighting Illini hope receivers can live up to the hype
PowerMizzou: Illinois Insider - Offensive Preview
Campus Corner (KC Star): Zook Heaps Praise on Missouri

Bevo's Daily Roundup - September 2, 2009

dimecoverage — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:51:25 -0000

3 days until the Louisiana-Monroe game.

"If Vondrell is making yards, he'll get a bunch. If not, we'll get someone else in there,"
Brown said. "Fozzy had an outstanding summer. He will play if he's healthy."

Are you sure it isn't Sam Bradford? A Statesman writer picks Colt McCoy as his favorite to win the Heisman.

Our defense wants to hit people. This is a good thing.

Longhorns quarterback Colt McCoy spoke Monday about a preseason camp that was full of intensity and hard hits. Not that he was ever touched, mind you. He was sporting a black jersey, after all.

"It was really competitive,'' he said. "We were going at it every day and talking a lot of trash in the locker room. There's a sense of relief that I don't have to go up against the defense. I'm ready to see them play against somebody else."

The defense shares those sentiments, Colt. Quiet as they have kept, they've been itching to blow up a quarterback. And that black jersey? To these bulls, it might as well be a red cape. They've dreamed about hitting you. But they know they can't.

The offensive line is really important.

They've been the most invisible players on the Texas football team this preseason.

No one's talking about them. Hardly anyone outside their mothers are following them. Democratic gubernatorial candidates are more prominent than Chris Hall and friends.

But no five players will have a bigger impact on the Longhorns' fortunes than the ones who will line up tackle to tackle.

How is McCoy preparing for ULM?

"It’s a mental challenge for a quarterback — they bring blitzes on every play [and] you have to know who is coming," said Texas quarterback Colt McCoy. "We just have to do what we do."

And that is to execute perfectly in the short range passing game, the usual recipe to beating the blitz. With the most accurate quarterback in college football history and a plethora of receiving options, the Longhorns’ short passing attack should be tailor-made to unlock the mysteries of Monroe’s defense if McCoy can get the ball out of his hands.

"[They are] very aggressive," said offensive coordinator Greg Davis. "Looking at the New Mexico film — and that’s what we base everything schematically — they blitz 76 percent of the time, which is an enormous number in the Big 12. The picture is it’s kind of a mental gymnastics game that you have to be buttoned up on where they’re coming from. When they get off the bus, they’re bringing somebody."

The future looks good. Lots of freshmen may see playing time.

Do the Horns deserve that preseason ranking?

"Coach Brown asked us (Sunday) night, ‘Do you think you deserve it?'" offensive lineman Chris Hall said of UT's spot in the preseason polls. "The overwhelming majority (of players) said we haven't done anything yet."

The Longhorns are really nervous about the game on Saturday. Those Warhawks could cause quite an upset.

The last thing on the Longhorns' season-opener wish list is to become the subject of a billboard statement by a Sun Belt school.

"We don't want to be a part of any losses," linebacker/defensive end Sergio Kindle said Monday.

But Mack Brown doesn't want to scare anyone.

"We try not to play up the scare approach," Brown said. "You can convince your team that you can lose. But those are the facts. They [Monroe] did beat Alabama. ... And we feel like they’re a lot like the Arkansas State team that played us off our feet [in 2007]."

Center Chris Hall said players consider themselves forewarned.

Colt McCoy made the cover of another magazine. And Mack Brown Texas Sports provides some fish stories.

Louisiana-Monroe

It's not the best time to have a lot of switcheroos. ULM shakes up their depth chart.

The biggest switcheroos on the depth chart are on the offensive line. Offensive line coach Vance Vice came in assuring his players there were no starting spots won even with returning players. He made sure to drive the point home when he arrived in the spring and since has flip flopped the line with some starters changing positions mixed in with some new faces also.

"We feel like to give us the best opportunity to win, we have to have the best five offensive linemen on the field to go along with the best 11 on the field," Weatherbie said.

The Austin American-Statesman has a ULM scouting report.

The Aggies are learning about the economy. All that hard work will pay off.

Texas A&M safety Jordan Pugh, his voice rising like that of an evangelical preacher, vowed the Aggies will be improved this season — starting with Saturday night’s home game against New Mexico.

How so? Pugh said A&M coach Mike Sherman cites bank investing as an example.

"It’s the investment we put into the offseason," Pugh said. "I don’t think anybody has worked harder than us. That’s an honest statement."

No word on Ryan Tannehill's role.

Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman refused to disclose his plans for Ryan Tannehill, who was a productive receiver for the Aggies last season but is now their backup quarterback after attempting to unseat attempted to Jerrod Johnson in fall camp.

"He's a big part of what we do here," Sherman said, "but I think I'll save that one for game day. I appreciate the question, though. Nice try."

Not good, Mike. The Aggie coach makes his poll rankings public.

1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma State
8. Virginia Tech
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State

We have long memories. Memories that extend until November.

Oklahoma State

The Pokes have a deadly kick-return game.

the Cowboys have something else going for them. Two something elses to be exact — Dez Bryant and Perrish Cox.

Bryant led the conference last season with a 17.9-yard punt return average. He took two the distance, the only return man in the conference to do so.

Cox led the league with a 29.8-yard kickoff return average. He, too, was the only specialist to score twice on kickoff returns, a Big 12 record for a season.

Dynamic Dez. Receiver Dez Bryant is ready for the Bulldogs.

"Not just me, but the whole team — we're ready," Bryant said. "We feel very confident coming into this game."

All will be revealed on Saturday. By this time next week we will know everything we need to know about the Cowboys.

If OSU wins Saturday they have every right to thump their chest and do some bragging.

If OSU loses, well then there’s a quite a different story to be told.

Today has not been a good day for Pokes. Tight end Jamal Mosley is leaving the team and middle linebacker Orie Lemon is out for the season.

When all else fails, blame it on the media. Mike Gundy blames repetitive questions for that media blackout.

"We had (interviews) open for 16 days in a row that the questions became so repetitive," Gundy said Monday during the weekly Big 12 teleconference. "It was the same things over and over. There was such a demand it was taking up the players' time. I felt players were kind of getting worn out.

If you think repetitive questions wear your team down, just wait until they meet the Longhorn and Sooner defenses.

Oklahoma State finally has a backup quarterback.

The Atlanta paper is having fun with the Cowboys.

Remember I told you last week of Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy put his players in a media lock down, so as to help keep them free of distractions before going into Georgia game week? Well, this is how well it worked. Starting senior defensive backand kickoff returner Perrish Cox was arrested for driving with a suspended license last Friday. It’s a good thing Gundy wouldn’t let his players do interview. Otherwise, somebody might’ve robbed a bank. (FYI, no word yet on whether Cox will play. But assuming he’s any good, expect the standard course of action, which is, "We’ll start him and let the legal side of things play itself out." I’m sure hearings can be put off until February in Stillwater.

Barking Carnival previews Oklahoma State.

Gundy’s offenses are well designed but poorly thought out.. They do things at the wrong times and fail to use the clock to their advantage late in games. Zac Robinson manages the team like a bored Target shift manager. They have to be explosive to win, but after Bryant and half a game’s worth of Robinson, it probably won’t be there.

The defense is mostly made up of players Texas cooled off on somewhere during the recruiting process. Ugo Chinasa, Orie Lemon, and Parrish Cox head the list of guys that Mack was OK with not having. Chinasa led the team in tackles for loss and dashikis in closet. The bodies on the line are just like any other not-quite-there-yet school. Good size, good speed, weak pass rush. They had a very good blitz package last year and needed every page of that section in the playbook. Richetti Jones will try to add something from his electric mobility scooter.

When they start coming up with tacky theme songs, things have gotten way out of hand.

Oklahoma

There has been a big shake up on the Sooner o-line. We could see a tight end start at center against BYU.

Perhaps the most intriguing story line of Saturday’s game against Brigham Young will be how the Sooners use Eldridge, who, barring a dramatic change, will be in the starting lineup at center.

But with projected starting center Ben Habern, who battled an inflamed back for the first two weeks of fall camp, working back to form, the Sooners will have the option of playing Eldridge at both center and tight end.

An option they may utilize.

The Sooners like tests.

No. 20 BYU's potent offense will provide a good test in the season opener, Stoops said Monday during the weekly Big 12 teleconference.

"They're really efficient," Stoops said. "They have an excellent quarterback, a great tight end and a great running back. That's the rub. They do a really good job with their skill guys, using them all of them. They make you deal with it all.

Mike Balogun is not on the travel roster for the BYU game. His eligibility is still uncertain.

"The NCAA has not made a decision and they will not have a decision before Friday," Balogun’s attorney, Woody Glass, said in an e-mail. "Mike will not be able to travel with the team or participate in the game."

Some freshmen will get playing time.

Stoops had been complimentary of defensive backs Demontre Hurst and Marcus Trice throughout the preseason, but named several others who will also play throughout the season during his weekly press conference.

Offensive lineman Tyler Evans, defensive lineman Jamarkus McFarland, linebackers Ronnell Lewis and Jaydan Bird and wide receiver Jaz Reynolds were all named by Stoops as players who will contribute in their first season.

As much as we like to pick on Bob, this article really tells you about a side of his personality that we don't see.

Oklahoma football coach Bob Stoops, hearing that the Restrepos were making two-day drives to Delaware during Javi's liver transplant, paid for a private jet for the trips. And after the final, fateful diagnosis, Stoops again paid for a private jet to send the family to a Florida beach for a one-day getaway.

Yes, we are aware the North Division is bad. One more variation of North vs. South. The writer even throws in Darwinism.

Welcome to the Big 12 South, where Darwinism is taken to ridiculous extremes. The Big 12 is regarded as the nation's strongest football league this side of the Southeastern Conference, and the South Division teams are largely responsible for that reputation.

With Texas ranking second, Oklahoma third and OSU 11th in the preseason coaches' poll, it's easy to see where the Big 12's balance of power rests. It's certainly not in the North Division, where only Nebraska is ranked at No. 22.

ESPN's Tim Griffin ranks the Big 12 offenses.

1. Oklahoma State
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Kansas
5. Texas Tech
6. Baylor
7. Missouri
8. Colorado
9. Nebraska
10. Texas A&M
11. Iowa State
12. Kansas State

The North

Music NSFW.

Nebraska's I-back Roy Helu will be even more instrumental this season.

As the Cornhuskers attempt to break in a new starting quarterback and two new wide receivers, Helu and the backfield were expected to be the integral part of the team’s offense.

But that preparation for Helu intensified Aug. 22 when Quentin Castille was dismissed from the team because of an undisclosed violation of team rules. The move means that a Cornhuskers offense that was already expected to lean on Helu will likely be depending on him even more when Nebraska starts the season Saturday against Florida Atlantic.

"As a unit, I don’t know how it will affect us," Helu said. "I think it’s inevitable with me and the other I-backs that we’ll get more work. And absolutely, I’m ready for it."

Bo Pelini likes the development of his offensive and defensive lines.

"I feel good about the development of our offensive and defensive lines," Pelini said. "I think they practiced hard…they’re ready to go. If we finish off this week the right way."

The fact that someone is even asking these questions is just sad. Can the Wildcats play defense? Will Bill Snyder keel over on the sideline?

TWO ISSUES

1. Will K-State actually field a defense this year?

2. How much does Bill Snyder have left in the tank?

Kansas State has a quarterback.

The moral of this story? Stay off Twitter.

Speaking of Juice, there appears to be no hard feelings between the Illini quarterback and MU linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who playfully tweeted this summer about how much he can't wait to "squeeze the pulp out of Juice." Weatherspoon said Williams has since sent a message to MU nose tackle Jaron Baston with a simple request of Spoon: "Don't squeeze me too hard."

Tiger quarterback Blaine Gabbert should just be himself.

"I've never asked a player to go in and try to be somebody else," coach Gary Pinkel said. "You are who you are. [Freshman quarterback] Blaine Gabbert should be Blaine Gabbert, not Chase Daniel, not Brad Smith."

The Buffaloes are having serious issues with their depth chart.

Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said determining a depth chart for the season opener Sunday against Colorado State may have been more challenging this year than in his three previous seasons.

"There was much more competition; there are many more guys able to play," Hawkins said Monday during the Rocky Mountain Showdown kickoff luncheon at Invesco Field at Mile High.

The South

Saturday cannot come soon enough for Texas Tech.

"We’re kind of like a caged animal right now,’’ senior guard Brandon Carter said. "Everybody’s ready to be released. I think we’re the most excited team in the country right now. But when it comes time, we have to control that rage. We have to play disciplined and make sure we don’t have any penalties.’’

This guy has high hopes for the Red Raiders. Or he has no idea what he is talking about.

Tech will win all its home games this year – including the one against OU – and lose at Texas, Nebraska and OSU. The Raiders also will fall to Baylor at the new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, unless Bears QB Robert Griffin doesn’t play.

It is the Year of the Golden Arm.

The best coach of quarterbacks in the nation has a theory when it comes to the most important position on the field. It's one of those lucid, thought-provoking statements we've come to expect from Mike Leach, the game's free thinker.

Embrace what is instead of what could be.

How's that for earth-shattering?

"There are quarterbacks in the college game now that are just doing remarkable things," says Leach, whose quarterbacks at Texas Tech are annually among the nation's leaders. "And all we want to talk about is how they project to the NFL."

So what's driving Tim Tebow this season?

The answer is simple. More than anything, the best player in college football wants the one thing he does not have: an undefeated season.

The Wall Street Journal has some Great Gridiron Getaways planned for you.

Gale Sayers is heading back to Kansas.

Oh, no. I thought this only happened with Gator fans.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the overall strengths and situational weaknesses of what will surely be one of the better offenses in the country in 2009. But to stay in the Top 10 this year, OSU will need to have a defense that can at least slow down the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, and (hopefully they fit into the "dangerous" category) Missouri. Will they?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 113.2 (#27)
Success Rate+: 107.4 (#40)
PPP+: 120.5 (#22)

Standard Downs S&P+: 104.2 (#49)
Passing Downs S&P+: 117.7 (#27)

Redzone S&P+: 98.8 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 130.8 (#11)
Q2 S&P+: 114.8 (#29)
Q3 S&P+: 90.8 (#88)
Q4 S&P+: 95.6 (#68)

1st Down S&P+: 104.2 (#51)
2nd Down S&P+: 105.2 (#45)
3rd Down S&P+: 128.4 (#15)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 108.6 (#41)
Rushing SR+: 108.4 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 109.0 (#48)

Standard Downs: 99.8 (#65)
Passing Downs: 149.6 (#9)

Redzone: 115.1 (#28)

Line Yards+: 115.9 (#17)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.8 (#17)
Passing SR+: 106.2 (#37)
Passing PPP+: 127.6 (#17)

Standard Downs: 117.7 (#27)
Passing Downs: 112.5 (#37)

Redzone: 88.6 (#87)

Adj. Sack Rate: 2.7% (#119)

My ongoing theory about OSU's defense was that they were decent in September, unbelievable in October, and poor afterward. Looking at individual game "+" scores, that seems just about right (click to enlarge).

In actuality, OSU's defense seemed to thrive, in part, with the element of surprise. I think about 98% of Missouri fans would have voted for last year's OSU Defensive Coordinator, Tim Beckman, for Assistant of the Year, after watching the 'Poke D confuse Chase Daniel like nobody else had in his three years as starter. He just could not get a feel for where OSU was attacking from and when they dropping into coverage. Colt McCoy was similarly confused--seriously, holding both Missouri and Texas under 30 points was an extremely impressive accomplishment. Between those two games, they also held Baylor to just 6 points. Beckman emptied his bag of tricks, apparently, in the process. When October turned into November, OSU was tapped out. They looked decent against Iowa State, but they gave up 56 points to Texas Tech, 61 to Oklahoma, and 42 to Oregon to end the season. All three of those teams had outstanding offenses, but OSU had fallen from one of the top 2-3 defenses in the league to being distinctly average, or even a little worse.

The downward trend, combined with Beckman's departure to Toledo, make this an impossible defense to figure out for 2009. To meet expectations, the Cowboy D needs to closely resemble its pre-October form, but can it? Was the success due to Beckman's pulling of the strings? Did they just run out of gas? Hard to tell, though it bears mentioning that OSU's biggest regression in terms of pre- and post-November 1 numbers came in Q4. Their Q4 Success Rates + fell from 148.3 before November 1 to 84.6 after, a 42.9% drop. Q4 PPP+ fell 35.9%, and overall Q4 S&P+ fell 36.4%. Sounds like they may need a bit of extra conditioning work this summer.

Looking at OSU's full-year numbers, here's what we know for sure (or at least almost for sure):

Speed in the secondary paid off. OSU's success rate figures were only decent in pass defense, but they were able to limit the big play pretty well. I say that was because of speed--it could have also been due simply to good tackling or good positioning of the safeties. With guys like Perrish Cox back there, though, speed does appear to be an asset in Stillwater.
It is quite possible that the LBs made the DL look good at times. OSU's LB corps is absolutely a strength of this defense, and considering OSU's atrocious sack rates and good line yardage figures, it's possible that the LBs' tackling ability prevented a lot of big rushing plays.
The D-Line was quite possibly a liability. Here's a list of FBS teams with worse Adjusted Sack Rates than Oklahoma State: Idaho. That's it. That's awful. They faced some of the best offensive lines in the country--Texas Tech (#1), Oklahoma (#2), Missouri (#5)--but...Idaho!
The per-quarter numbers lend credence to the idea that Beckman's gameplans were the best thing OSU had going for them. They were dominant in Q1 but started to fade thereafter. This makes sense thinking back to the MU-OSU game. MU drove for a (controversial) field goal on their first drive (controversial, both because Gary Pinkel probably should have gone for it on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, and because Chase Coffman quite possibly scored a TD on second down), but they followed that drive up with their first three-and-out of the season and only managed three points in their four second-quarter drives. Granted, Mizzou missed two field goals in the process, but facts are facts--OSU shut Mizzou down like nobody had in two years.
Once leveraged into Passing Downs, opponents' offenses were very much vulnerable to a big play from the Cowboy Defense. They were okay on Standard Downs, but quite good on Passing Downs and third downs.

The biggest story of the offseason for the OSU defense has been the return of Defensive Coordinator Bill Young to his alma mater. Young has a strong resume, having served as coordinator for an improving Kansas defense from 2003-07 and as Miami-FL DC last year. What change can be expected with Young at the helm? Here are the first-year totals and changes from Young's tenures in Lawrence and Miami.

First, Kansas.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Kansas (2002)	472.4	6.8	256.2	5.8	216.2	8.6
Kansas (2003)	412.6	5.9	194.7	4.9	217.9	7.3
Change	-12.7%	-13.2%	-24.0%	-15.5%	+0.8%	-15.1%

Then, Miami.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Miami (2007)	345.9	5.1	133.8	3.4	212.2	7.4
Miami (2008)	317.5	5.0	151.8	4.0	165.6	6.4
Change	-8.2%	-2.0%	+13.5%	+17.6%	-22.0%	-13.5%

Needless to say, at both Kansas and Miami-FL, Young wasn't replacing a DC who had done well enough to earn himself a head coaching job at a mid-level FBS school. At Kansas, he inherited one of the worst defenses in the country (seriously...6.8 yards per play??) and made them relatively respectable; he also created the "How to Stop Brad Smith" blueprint that everybody in the North not named Kevin Cosgrove followed for the next three seasons, for what that's worth. At Miami, he took over a respectable defense (33rd in Total Defense in 2007) and made them a bit better (28th) despite a youth movement. In Stillwater, if you are to see improvement, it will probably be more of the Miami variety. OSU is experienced but not particularly deep, but if they're simply better able to execute in the fourth quarter this year, it could make a hefty difference.

Defensive Line

Ugo Chinasa certainly looks the part

2008 Unit Ranking: #55 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Ugo Chinasa (6'5, 253, Jr.)
DE Derek Burton (6'3, 285, Sr.)
DT Swanson Miller (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DT Shane Jarka (6'3, 285, Jr.)
DE Richetti Jones (6'3, 253, So.)
DE Jeremiah Price (6'2, 260, Sr.)
DT Chris Donaldson (6'2, 286, Jr.)
DT Nigel Nicholas (6'3, 285, RSFr.)

Young's first task: put together a better defensive line. Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Linebackers

Mizzou fans should definitely know Patrick Lavine's name.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Patrick Lavine (6'2, 222, Sr.)
Orie Lemon (6'1, 249, Sr.)
Andre Sexton (6'0, 217, Sr.)
Justin Gent (6'2, 235, Jr.)
Donald Booker (5'11, 235, Sr.)
James Thomas (6'0, 205, So.)

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Secondary

Is this the year Perrish Cox becomes known for being more than just a great kick returner?

2008 Unit Ranking: #29 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
CB Terrance Anderson (5'11, 185, Sr.)
S Johnny Thomas (6'0, 195, So.)
S Lucien Antoine (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Maurice Gray (5'9, 180, Sr.)
S Markelle Martin (6'1, 190, So.)
S Victor Johnson (6'1, 190, So.)
CB Brodrick Brown (5'8, 180, RSFr.)

Again, Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more.

Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Thomas, Antoine, Martin, and Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year. OSU's secondary benefitted greatly from my strength of schedule adjustment, but while they were strong in terms of big plays allowed (PPP+), stats like Success Rate+ and completion percentage allowed (62.9% in 2008) need to improve.

Special Teams

Dan Bailey: good. Those shoes: atrocious.

2008 Unit Ranking: #6 net punting, #2 punt returns, #18 kickoff returns

Projected Starters
K Dan Bailey (6'1, 185, Jr.)
P Quinn Sharp (6'1, 177, RSFr.)
KR Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
PR Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)

If Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Summary

It does appear that Bill Young's got some athletes to work with here, and experienced ones to boot. If the projected starters hold, OSU will start eight seniors in 2009, including very proven quantities at linebacker. Young is a good defensive coordinator, but it's hard to tell what to expect from his defense this year since it appears that Tim Beckman's gameplans were the best thing they had going for them in 2008. I don't foresee a ton of improvement from this unit in 2009, but if they can manage to be a bit more consistent year-round, and if they can simply improve marginally in the fourth quarter (or at least, don't fall apart in November fourth quarters), then they might make enough plays to pave the way for the offense to win the game for them.

Last week, when talking about Nebraska, I mentioned that it was the offense's job not to lose the game and the defense's job to win it. In Stillwater, it's the exact opposite. Just make some plays, make stops on passing downs, and force some turnovers, and if Dez Bryant has any help in the receiving corps, then OSU could be on its way to ten wins. I don't think they have enough to win the South, but this should be a damn good team.

---

Projections on Friday.

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Defensive Lines

Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return. Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference. Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense. Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam. If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards. The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

Oklahoma (17)
Texas (14)
Texas Tech (11)
Oklahoma State (9)
Baylor (8)
Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first. ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

Special Teams

Oklahoma State (K Dan Bailey, PR Dez Bryant, KR Perrish Cox)
Oklahoma (PR Ryan Broyles, KR DeMarco Murray, K Jimmy Stevens)
Texas (K Hunter Lawrence, P Justin Tucker, KR Malcolm Williams)
Texas Tech (K Donnie Carona, P Jonathan LaCour, KR Edward Britton)
Baylor (KR Mikail Baker, K Ben Parks, P Derek Epperson)
Texas A&M (PR Jordan Pugh, KR Cyrus Gray, ...?)

No complete unit among the group, but OSU is the closest.

Coaches

Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

If I rank them again in 5 minutes, I'll probably get a completely different order. I didn't say this was scientific.

2009 South Rankings

Texas (43)
Oklahoma (43)
Oklahoma State (40)
Texas Tech (29)
Baylor (19)
Texas A&M (15)

Honestly, with the status of OU's offense, this surprises me, but there OU is, right in the thick of things. So how do the schedules shake out?

-- Schedules --

Baylor

10/10 - at Oklahoma
10/17 - at Iowa State
10/24 - Oklahoma State
10/31 - Nebraska
11/7 - at Missouri
11/14 - Texas
11/21 - at Texas A&M
11/28 - Texas Tech

North schedule: @ ISU, NU, @ MU. An unfortunate slate for Baylor, really. Yeah, they can probably take out NU at home, but traveling to Ames makes that one something of a tossup (I picked ISU in Monday's North preview, and I'm already regretting that one) and traveling to Columbia gives MU an edge there. I say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, UT, Tech. Hmm. They're going to win one of these games, but I'm not sure which one. Tech, maybe? We'll go with Tech. Two upsets here is possibly too much to ask, but it's not unthinkable. 1-2.

South road slate: @ OU, @ ATM. You know Baylor will be gunning for their first bowl since Grant Teaff next year, and with a likely 3-1 non-conference record (@ Wake Forest, UConn, NW'ern State, Kent State), the bowl bid might come down to the ATM game. They stomped ATM in Waco this year...but for now we'll go with the home team. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Oklahoma

10/10 - Baylor
10/17 - vs Texas
10/24 - at Kansas
10/31 - Kansas State
11/7 - at Nebraska
11/14 - Texas A&M
11/21 - at Texas Tech
11/28 - Oklahoma State

North schedule: @ KU, KSU, @ NU. The trip to Lincoln could be iffy, as could the trip to Lawrence, but...for now I'm sticking with 3-0.

South home slate: Baylor, ATM, OSU. Clearly, getting OSU at Owen Field is big. 3-0.

South road slate: vs UT, @ Tech. Only one true South road game for OU in '09, which gives them nice opportunity to break in a new O-line and possibly a new QB with fewer setbacks. But the youth will still bite them here. I favor UT in Dallas, and the trip to Lubbock screams "setback". 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 6-2.

Oklahoma State

10/10 - at Texas A&M
10/17 - Missouri
10/24 - at Baylor
10/31 - Texas
11/7 - at Iowa State
11/14 - Texas Tech
11/21 - Colorado
11/28 - at Oklahoma

North schedule: MU, @ISU, CU. This sets up very well for OSU. The trip to Ames might be a landmine if the Jack Trice Winds play a factor...but probably not. 3-0.

South home slate: UT, Tech. BIG games here. I say they beat Tech, but...Texas? Are they ready for that? That could decide the South right there. I change my mind later, I'm sure, but I'm going to say yes...yes, they can win that game. 2-0.

South road slate: @ATM, @BU, @OU. The Baylor trip could be a major landmine, but we'll say OSU pulls it off for now. They still lose to OU, though. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas

10/10 - Colorado
10/17 - vs Oklahoma
10/24 - at Missouri
10/31 - at Oklahoma State
11/7 - Texas Tech
11/14 - at Baylor
11/21 - Kansas
11/28 - at Texas A&M

North schedule: CU, @MU, KU. Yeah, 3-0.

South home slate: vs OU, Tech. Only one true South home game, but they'll TCB. 2-0.

South road slate: @OSU, @BU, @ATM. I said OSU would win? Guess that means 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas A&M

10/10 - Oklahoma State
10/17 - at Kansas State
10/24 - at Texas Tech
10/31 - Iowa State
11/7 - at Colorado
11/14 - at Oklahoma
11/21 - Baylor
11/28 - Texas

North schedule: @KSU, ISU, @CU. 3-0? 0-3? Anything's possible here. I'll go homefield and say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, BU, UT. 1-2.

South road slate: @Tech, @OU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Texas Tech

10/10 - Kansas State
10/17 - at Nebraska
10/24 - Texas A&M
10/31 - Kansas
11/7 - at Texas
11/14 - at Oklahoma State
11/21 - Oklahoma
11/28 - at Baylor

North schedule: KSU, @NU, KU. 2-1.

South home slate: @UT, @OSU, @BU. Tech's been much better on the road this year than previous years, but without Harrell and Crabtree (and over half the O-line), there will be regression. I'll still have them beating BU, but that's it. 1-2.

South road slate: ATM, OU. 2-0.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Standings

Oklahoma State 7-1
Texas 7-1
Oklahoma 6-2
Texas Tech 5-3
Baylor 2-6
Texas A&M 2-6

Summary

I don't think I'm giving Baylor enough credit. They'll probably beat ATM or OSU or something, but who knows. Also, I'm probably giving OSU too much credit--expectations could overtake them. Honestly I'm already wanting to bump UT ahead of OSU and BU ahead of ATM, but that's just me thinking too hard.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Bill C. — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 19:00:05 -0000

So as I was entering play-by-play data yesterday, I had an extra spring in my step. I was very curious what the BTBS data would say about this game...how it would explain the whole "outgained them, broke even on turnovers...still lost at home" thing. Well...now I'm wishing I hadn't looked at this...wishing I had just skipped right over the BTBS piece this week. Mizzou dominated in almost every statistical category except one: Passing Downs. You know that whole concept of "leverage" that I've been pushing recently? If you haven't hopped on board the Leverage train yet, you might want to do so now, as Leverage cost Mizzou an undefeated record.

Missouri		Okie State
	% Close = 100.0%
53.8%	Field Position % *	46.2%
81.4%	Leverage % **	65.3%
	TOTAL
70	Plays	72
28.09	EqPts	26.73
55.7%	Success Rate	41.7%
0.40	Points Per Play (PPP)	0.37
0.958	S&P (Success + PPP)	0.788

	RUSHING
7.46	EqPts	13.24
56.3%	Success Rate	35.7%
0.47	PPP	0.32
1.029	S&P	0.672
2.83	Line Yards/carry	2.28

	PASSING
20.63	EqPts	13.48
57.7%	Success Rate	50.0%
0.40	PPP	0.45
0.974	S&P	0.949

	NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.2%	Success Rate	44.7%
0.45	PPP	0.39
1.077	S&P	0.834

	PASSING DOWNS
23.1%	Success Rate	36.0%
0.21	PPP	0.34
0.438	S&P	0.701

	TURNOVERS
3	Number	3
8.85	Points Lost	8.28
6.09	Points Given	5.78
14.94	Total T/O Pts	14.06
-0.88	Turnover Pts Margin	+0.88

So Missouri outgained OSU in terms of yards and EqPts...
They split in turnover margin...
They out-leveraged them (in terms of how many Passing Downs they forced)...
They won the field-position battle...
They dominated the OSU O-line in terms of line yards (OSU was averaging over 3.6 line yards per carry)...
They didn't miss their season S&P average by much...
They held OSU to what was by far their lowest S&P of the season...
And they lost. Because they were absolutely horrific on Passing Downs.
There were 6 turnovers in the game, and almost all of them were relatively huge. Mizzou's were worth 4.68 points (Danario trips and falls), 5.89 points (Daniel bombs it to nobody in particular), and 4.37 points (Lavine steps in front of Maclin). OSU's were worth 6.13 points (Baston recovers fumble at end of half), 3.66 points (Bridges INT) and 4.28 points (Moore sticks Bryant, Gettis recovers). Any one of those doesn't happen, and the result is probably significantly different.
Finally, I can't say enough about how well OSU tackled. They were fast, and they didn't miss. That was the biggest reason they held Mizzou to 0.40 Points Per Play.

More analysis after the jump.

Let's go into a little more detail...

S&P by Quarter

Q1
Missouri: 53.8% / 0.36 PPP / 0.894 S&P
Oklahoma State: 59.1% / 0.37 PPP / 0.956 S&P

Q2
Missouri: 45.0% / 0.39 PPP / 0.843 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.10 PPP / 0.428 S&P

Q3
Missouri: 65.0% / 0.43 PPP / 1.082 S&P
Oklahoma State: 35.7% / 0.85 PPP / 1.203 S&P

Q4
Missouri: 58.8% / 0.41 PPP / 0.998 S&P
Oklahoma State: 33.3% / 0.29 PPP / 0.619 S&P

You see a nice spike in Mizzou's numbers in the second half, once they basically gave up on the run and focus on quick short passing as their new "running game". Meanwhile, OSU did a good job of gameplanning (success in Q1 and Q3), while the Mizzou defense made very good adjustments (success in Q2 and Q4).

S&P by Down

1st Down
Missouri: 60.5% / 0.41 PPP / 1.014 S&P
Oklahoma State: 36.4% / 0.25 PPP / 0.618 S&P

2nd Down
Missouri: 60.9% / 0.50 PPP / 1.111 S&P
Oklahoma State: 52.0% / 0.51 PPP / 1.034 S&P

3rd Down
Missouri: 22.2% / 0.11 PPP / 0.332 S&P
Oklahoma State: 38.5% / 0.40 PPP / 0.780 S&P

Just a staggering job by OSU of preventing Mizzou from having success where they're used to it the most--3rd downs (and, somewhat consequently, Passing Downs). Mizzou was as consistent as always on 1st and 2nd downs, but the clutch plays belonged to OSU. Yet another reason why I wish we could play this team again...like, right now.

Projections vs Performance

Here, we'll look at actual performance compared to what was projected in last week's BTBS preview.

Mizzou Rushing

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.6 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 19.0
Actual Performance: 7.5

Chase Daniel: 2.97 EqPts, 100.0% success rate, 1.595 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.49 EqPts, 25.0% success rate, 0.561 S&P
Jimmy Jackson: 1.38 EqPts on 1 carry
Jeremy Maclin: 0.62 EqPts on 2 carries

Though it was on Passing Downs where Mizzou had its biggest failures, chances are that failure in the running game caused a lot of those Passing Downs, especially in the first half. Chase Daniel did well at eating away chunks of yards when given the opportunity, and you could make the case that he should have run the ball a bit more, but seeing how dead his arms and legs seemed to be in the 4th quarter already, he probably took enough hits as is. But the game hinged at least somewhat in OSU's ability to shoot the gaps at just the right times and take away Derrick Washington's effectiveness.

Mizzou Passing

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 23.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 28.0
Actual Performance: 20.6

Jeremy Maclin: 5.16 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.645 S&P
Chase Coffman: 4.91 EqPts, 63.6% success rate, 1.083 S&P
Tommy Saunders: 3.44 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.689 S&P
Derrick Washington: 2.78 EqPts, 71.4% success rate, 1.111 S&P
Danario Alexander: 2.48 EqPts on 2 catches
Earl Goldsmith: 1.32 EqPts, 100% success rate, 1.441 S&P
Jared Perry: 0.53 EqPts on 2 catches
Andrew Jones: 0.49 EqPts on 1 catch

Once again, both the projections and my own projections were too optimistic about Mizzou's offensive performance. Credit OSU's gameplan for a lot of that.

OSU Rushing

Avg Projected OSU Rushing Output: 13.7 EqPts
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 14.0
Actual Performance: 13.2

The projections were actually a smidge optimistic about OSU's offensive performance too. Just imagine how good these numbers would look for Mizzou without Hunter's one long TD run. If if's and but's were candy and nuts...

OSU Passing

Avg Projected OSU Passing Output: 17.7
BTBS Adjusted Projection: 15.0
Actual Performance: 13.5

Credit where it's due: Mizzou's pass defense came to play. They were hitting hard, and they were two plays away from a wonderful performance. Of course, both of those plays went for TDs--one an obvious miscommunication on the play-action TD; the other, a confusing play where there ended up being two OSU players (Bryant & Davis) and one MU player (Ricks) in the same part of the endzone. Unfortunately, Davis made the catch. Regardless, Mizzou's pass defense played better than the numbers suggested they would, and this further reinforces the fact that it wasn't the Mizzou defense that cost them this game.

Mizzou Defense

Because of the solid defensive play, I thought I'd show you the breakdown for "successful" defensive tackles...

Sean Weatherspoon: 4.5 successful tackles (69.2% success rate)
Justin Garrett: 3.5 (46.7%)
William Moore: 3.0 (42.9%)
Jaron Baston: 2.5 (100.0%)
Tommy Chavis: 2.5 (100.0%)
Brock Christopher: 2.5 (71.4%)
Carl Gettis: 2.5 (55.6%)

Three members of the secondary with a success rate above 40% is just weird. But this does further support that our secondary a) hits hard and b) supports the run defense wonderfully.

Summary

For regular football fans, this game was a treat. Big plays were made on both sides of the ball. All the big-name offensive players (Daniel, Maclin, Coffman, Robinson, Hunter, Bryant) made plays at one point or another; all of Mizzou's defensive playmakers made some big hits and stops; OSU had guys like Jeremiah Price and Orie Lemon making names for themselves. It was a fun game...unfortunately, the result left something to be desired.

If nothing else, the BTBS stats point to what we basically already knew: Mizzou played well...except for when it didn't. (Brilliant analysis, I know.) The Mizzou Offense clicked along as always on Non-Passing Downs...but for really only the second time in the last 20 games, they were horrific on Passing Downs. The Mizzou receivers played well...except for the dropped passes (which don't really work themselves into BTBS numbers). The Mizzou defense played great...aside from three specific plays.

All these things point squarely to the "It just wasn't our day" truism, but that doesn't make the loss any easier to accept. Mizzou fans should take comfort in the fact that the Tigers still match up relatively well against Texas, and they're still clearly (to my eyes) a Top 10 team. The problem is...5-1 isn't nearly as promising as 6-0, and the Tigers quite obviously need to beat Texas to keep their national title hopes (and possibly Chase Daniel's Heisman hopes) alive.

Poll

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

1 votes

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

3 votes

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

5 votes

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

3 votes

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

10 votes

No MVP--we lost!

66 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation - Orie Lemon

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

Double-T Nation Daily Diatribe :: 09.02.09

Odds and Ends

Texas Tech Football

Texas Tech Basketball

Mizzou Links, 9-2-09

Bevo's Daily Roundup - September 2, 2009

Louisiana-Monroe

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

The North

The South

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

South Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 South Rankings

-- Schedules --

Baylor

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Standings

Summary

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score

Missouri

Okie State

Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP of the OSU game?

Chase Daniel (0.974 S&P Passing, 20.63 Passing EqPts, 2.97 Rushing EqPts)

Jeremy Maclin (5.78 Total EqPts)

Sean Weatherspoon (4.5 Successful Tackles)

William Moore (3.0 Successful Tackles, 1 forced fumble)

Jaron Baston (2.5 Successful Tackles, 1 fumble recovery)

No MVP--we lost!