SB Nation - Andrew Lewis

In the Trenches - Answering the Call

burnt in ny — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:33:24 -0000

July 30 2009 - In a pre-season fanpost, I expressed the following concern for the upcoming season

As evidenced in last year's games against Oklahoma State and Ohio State, Texas's defense, which is increasingly designed to emphasize speed and quickness in order to match up with spread offenses, is vulnerable to power rushing attacks.

Numerous pre-season posts expressed anxiety about Texas' defensive tackles behind Lamarr Houston, who was an unknown commodity himself, such as perceived journeyman Ben Alexander and green redshirt sophomore Kheeston Randall. Visions of helpless collapses against power running teams in critical games filled everyone's heads. 2009 could be the year of Motown's Lamarr and the Space-Eaters against the blitzkriegs of Chris Brown, Kendall Hunter, Christine Michael, Tim Tebow, or Mark Ingram. The Horns might even have to use, gasp!, true freshmen Calvin Howell and Derek Johnson. The call went out by anxious UT fans for anyone, anyone to step up.

The Space Eaters - Ben Alexander (92) and Kheeston Randall (91)

Sure, UT could win 10 and maybe even make a BCS bowl (little did we know that there might be as many as 6 undefeated teams after 9 weeks in the 2009 season), but if it was the 2009 mythical national championship the Horns wanted, these guys had to step up.

Jimmy Hoffa, from the grave, "I need some nasty, beefy guys up front, and not ya cousin Guido. Whatevah it takes, capisce?!"

November 1, 2009. Basking in the glow of 41-14, the report is in: The call was ANSWERED!

For the details and more on the offensive line, Will Muschamp, and other tidbits, make the jump!

The Evolution of the Defensive Tackles: Space Eaters to Gap Monsters

No doubt, the Cowboys thought they could build on last year''s success and overpower the spread-ready Texas D. From the first offensive play, Oklahoma State's strategy was clear. Double the strongside DE (Acho or Kindle) with a tackle (Russell Okung or Brady Bond) and tight end Wilson Youman. Let Lamarr Houston penetrate into the play and have Keith Toston cut back behind a double team from guard Noah Franklin and center Andrew Lewis on the presumed sacrificial Kheeston Randall. Randall holds position with his shoulders underneath Lewis, and then when Franklin leaves to block Rodderick Muckelroy, he reaches out and slaps the ball out of Toston's hands, luckily recovered by Oklahoma State. OK, not exactly chopped liver, but it's one play.

On the first drive, powered largely by Zac Robinson's scrambling and a couple of trick plays, OSU ran some variation of the inside power run at Kheeston Randall 6 times. In the half they tried it 8 times The result: gains of 2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 5, and 3 yards. That's a 3.8 ypc average if you're calculating at home. Not exactly 2008, when the Pokes averaged over 6 yards per carry. On all six runs, either Randall or Houston was able to slide off their block into the gap chosen by Toston, or were able to tie up two offensive linemen without losing ground for long enough to let Keenan Robinson or Roddrick Muckelroy make the tackle.

Even more interestingly, on the second drive, OSU abandoned the inside run almost completely (only two more inside runs the rest of the half) and instead began to attack Texas' corners. In the next 7 plays, 3 before and 4 after Jordan Shipley's fumbled punt, and ending the dropped fourth down pass in the end zone by Hubert Anyiam, OSU ran speed options to the outside or passed. They did not make a first down on either drive, and both Houston and Randall had QB pressures. Indeed, for most of the game the primary pressure on Zac Robinson was from either Houston or Randall.

This is worth taking a moment to appreciate. The play of the Longhorn defensive tackles, perceived to be a weakness at the beginning of the season by the fans and clearly also by Mike Gundy (otherwise why call 6 inside runs?) so completely defeats the OSU power running game that the Cowboys have to go to Game Plan B after the first drive. This shift in offensive philosophy eventually leaves Robinson vulnerable to the Texas secondary and perhaps provided the key to the blowout. While the Houtson-Randall-Alexander trifecta may not be composed of the best individual defensive tackles in the Big 12, they are good enough to stop the best power running team on the schedule without altering the defensive formation or changing personnel.

34 or 43: Which is the Magic Number?

The average fan is often aware of offensive formations (Wildhorn vs. empty set, etc.) but oblivious to details in defensive formations. Texas features a "Buck" package with Sergio Kindle as the "Buck" linebacker who can put a hand on the ground as a defensive end (to make a 4-3 alignment) or line up as a linebacker (to create a 3-4). The 3-4 alignment allows Will Muschamp to move Kindle around and create confusion in the blocking scheme. The success of the 3-4 alignment depends heavily on Texas having a strong presence at the nose, and Kheeston Randall filled that bill pretty well. A 3-4 defense is strongest against the pass because of the flexibility and uncertainty it creates for the offense in choosing routes and pass-blocking assignments. The 4-3 has the greatest potential against the run because the defensive tackles can take just one gap and penetrate and the linebackers are more protected.

In the Oklahoma State game, Texas switched regularly between the two alignments, and with largely the same personnel on the field. Although both fronts played well, there was a striking difference in OSU's performance against the two that highlights their strengths and weaknesses. Oklahoma State ran (not counting QB scrambles) against the 4-3 front 5 times in the first four drives, gaining 3 total yards (0.6 ypc). They ran against the 3-4 front 9 times, gaining 45 yards (5 ypc), with two runs accounting for 20 of the 45, including a 13 yard "jet sweep" by Travis Miller. On the other hand, Robinson passed against the 4-3 alignment 8 times, going 4-7 for 31 yards and an added 5 yard scramble (4.5 yards per play). Against the 3-4 front, Robinson threw five incompletions and had one scramble for 5 yards (0.8 yards per play). By the second quarter, Robinson was checking in and out of running plays to try to avoid running against the 4-3. Eventually, that caught up with him as he checked out of a run on 3rd and 2 from the Texas 30, only to throw the pick six to Curtis Brown.

The moral of these stats is that there will be a little cat and mouse game every week with opposing offenses trying to avoid running against the 4-3 and passing against the 3-4. The dominance of each defensive front against the offense it is designed to stop allows Texas to play against the offensive tendency, such as to expect a playaction pass on first down against its 4-3 or expect a run against its 3-4. Reducing an offense's playbook by half is a powerful defensive weapon.

Muschamp, You Wily Fox, You

Muschamp, the fox, playing with the mind of Zac Robinson. No chance, mouse: 41-14!

In going back over my notes and studying the tactics of both teams' playcalling, I'm convinced (without proof of course) that Muschamp baited Zac Robinson into Earl Thomas' interception. One of the great things about spread offenses is that receivers' routes are dictated by coverage, which allows the receiver to exploit the right seam or gap in the defense. However, I think that one of the reasons Texas' offense is struggling as much as it has this year is because defenses have now learned what choices receivers and QB's tend to make against particular formations. Defenses can now "show" one formation, know what choice a QB will make, and then run someone to that spot to jump the route. Against OSU, Earl Thomas began to run with the slot receiver, likely knowing that if he went with the receiver, Robinson would make the read to throw to the receiver running underneath to the area Thomas vacated. Knowing that, Earl released his man to Gideon deep and jumped the underneath route. If a defense gets to the point of responding to an offense's read rather than the actual player movements, then the offense will suffer the fate of the poor mouse in the photo, especially since there's no hole in the snow for an offense to hide.

Takin' it to the house!

Jekyll and Hyde, Version 2009.8

The offensive line that is. Frankly, I'm tired of analyzing the line's play because it's the same infuriating play every week. Any given individual along the line makes 3 great plays, 3 okay plays, and one really bad play. Against OSU, it was MOS. Chris Hall lets the defender get underneath him and thus enough penetration to trip Colt McCoy for a first down on 3rd and 2 in the red zone (Texas 3-0 instead of 7-0). Adam Ulatoski takes the wrong pass rusher and Colt takes a sack (end of drive). Charlie Tanner turns his head to the left and a blitzing LB goes by him to his right - sack and end of drive.

The good news is that, for the first time in three games, the OL was not physically overmatched at any time. The bad news is that this means it's all mental and after 140 collective starts or whatever it is, there shouldn't be this many mental errors. The offensive line is like an old house with faulty wiring: when you flip the switch, the light comes on most of the time, and good luck figuring out why it doesn't come on a few times. That said, GD had better be careful in how much he relies on only the core 5 offensive linemen to protect Colt. Five wide may be a nice change of pace, but an entire series of plays based on it, or using it on third and long, is going to get Colt injured or result in a turnover.

Greg Davis is a Genius

In an ode to GhostofBigRoy's call for series-based playcalling, I give you Texas' third drive against the Pokes at 14:25 of the second quarter. The previous (second) drive self-destructed from missed blocks by Greg Smith and Chris Hall and a failed run on first down, Colt throwing to a triple-covered Shipley for 3 yards when James Kirkendoll was 10 yards from anyone wide open 3 yards downfield on the opposite side of the play on second down, and a missed block by David Snow allowing Colt to get tripped up on a QB scramble.

With visions of Wyoming and Colorado dancing in the fans' heads, Texas started their third drive, after Hubert Anyiam's fumble, with three plays from 4 or 5 wide receiver sets. After overcoming a first down failure of the empty backfield and a sack of Colt, the Horns started first down on the OSU 38. The Horns, using their 11 personnel set with a running back and Greg Smith as the TE, ran the most beautiful series of running plays of the season.

1st down - Jet sweep to Marquise Goodwin (surprise, not DJ Monroe) for 7 yards.

2nd down - Spread counter to Cody Johnson up the middle for 7 yards. Charlie Tanner had awesome lead block.

1st down - Fake the jet sweep to the left and run Fozzy on a counter sweep to the right for 6 yards.

2nd down - Zone read, the DE crashes on Fozzy to seal the backcut, and Colt keeps for 6 yards.

1st down - Play action, fake the zone stretch left, Colt rolls out to the right and finds Marquise Goodwin in a seam vacated by Jordan Shipley's crossing route for 11 yards.

1st down - Jumbo package - Cody Johnson goes 2 yards and breaks the plane of the goal line - touchdown.

So the next time someone tells you that Texas has no running game, no misdirection, or no playaction passing, you can whip this out. The Horns have now used multiple plays to set up multiple other plays on the same drive, including in the running game. MORE OF THIS PLEASE!

Greg Davis goes from genius to imbecile on the same drive

It's the first drive of the second half. After the best playaction pass of the year for 44 yards to Malcolm Williams on a post pattern vacated, once again, by a Shipley crossing route underneath, Texas has the ball on the OSU 20. We're seconds away from 31-7 and good night ladies....

1st down - Cody Johnson on the zone stretch, cuts back inside and, with a good block from Buckner, gets 6 yards.

(Yeah, baby, pound it home!)

2nd down and 3 - Oops, OSU dances in front of Adam Ulatoski, threatening the blitz. Uli decides to tango. False start -5 yards.

2nd down and 8 - Davis can't get the play in in time AFTER A PENALTY &^&%&I. - 5 yards

2nd down and 13 - Let's call a play that hasn't worked all year against a defense that isn't blitzing. Shovel pass to Fozzy, who is clocked by an unblocked linebacker. - 4 yards

3rd down and 17 - Using 11 personnel (Okay, the Horns aren't running, it must be for max protect), Greg Smith runs out in the flat, Colt gets harassed and throws it to Smith for 5 yards.

4th down and 12 from the OSU 23 - Hunter Lawrence bails out the Horns with a 40-yard field goal.

What does it all mean?

Somehow, out of the flickering lights of GD's brain and the offensive line's attention span, Texas has a top offense that is going to look unstoppable on some series and infuriating on others. It is what it is, and I will officially stop complaining from now on and start appreciating it when the lights are fully on.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Unlike Bo Pelini, Mike Gundy faces Year Five expectations...in year five.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Today it's time to discuss the first game of the schedule that most Missouri fans agree will be a loss--the October 17 trip to Stillwater. But fear not, Tiger fans! Mizzou has OSU right where they want them: in Stillwater. Quite simply, MU-OSU games never, ever, ever turn out as they're supposed to. The road team in this series has won five of the last six. MU has won in Stillwater three straight times--1997, 2001, 2005--and OSU has won in Columbia the last two--2004, 2008. Strange, silly things happen in this series (including overtime--one in 1996, two in 1997, three in 2001), which in this case is good news for Missouri, but when "strange things happen" is your #1 reason for optimism, you know this isn't a game you're expected to win.

So why is everybody piling on the 'Pokes as this year's Texas Tech, the team expected to possibly break up the OU/Texas stranglehold on the South? Explosiveness on offense and experience on defense. Today, we look at the offensive side of the equation; but first, we start with a look back at 2008.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 236.7 (14th in the country, 4th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 530-365 (+165)
Conference Scoring Margin: 292-236 (+56)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri, #40 Baylor, #42 Troy, #51 Houston, #82 Colorado, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #118 Washington State, 1-AA SMS
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #11 Oregon, #15 Texas Tech

Say this much for Oklahoma State: they're the exception to the "Bowl performances are overblown regarding the next season's expectations" rule. They really didn't perform well after November 1, but expectations for them in 2009 have gone through the roof regardless. And for the most part, it's easy to see why. Their top skill position talent returns intact--they don't really have any pass catchers after Dez Bryant, but it's not completely clear that they need any; their offensive line is extremely experienced, and their defense is experienced if not amazing. The pieces are in place, and as I was saying this time last year about Texas Tech, if they're ever going to break through into that top tier, now's the time.

When all was said and done in 2008, OSU had gone 8-0 against teams ranked below 15th in the country, and 1-3 against teams above. So it makes sense, really, that they would end up the year 14th. Their W/L performance was quite steady and consistent, even if their defensive performance wasn't. But we'll get into "pre-November 1 vs post-November 1" defensive issues tomorrow. The 2008 season, in the end, represented a lovely step forward for the OSU program, their first 9-win season since 2003 and only their second since 1988. And unlike those seasons, and majority of the talent from that 9-win squad returns.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mike Gundy
Record at Oklahoma State: 27-23 (conference: 13-20)
Career Pythagorean Record: 27.79 wins (-0.2/year)

Let's get all the jokes out of the way now. Mike Gundy is a man, he's 41, etc. He's also captained an OSU team that has jumped from 4-8 to 7-6 (twice) to 9-4 in his four seasons, and even though the growth of OSU's overall athletic facilities has hit a bump in the road recently, there is still a lot to like about the direction of the athletic program as a whole and the football program specifically. They'll probably take a step backwards in 2010 after losing Dez Bryant (probably), Zac Robinson, Russell Okung, most of their LBs and DB, etc., but the trajectory is good, and Gundy has to be considered one of the reasons why that is the case (after T. Boone Pickens, anyway).

Looking at Pythagorean projections, OSU has won pretty much exactly the amount of games their points and point differential would project. Blowouts skew the Pythagorean numbers, and while I haven't figured out how to account for that yet, they haven't skewed Gundy's numbers too much.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 123.5 (#13)
Success Rate+: 114.3 (#18)
PPP+: 135.5 (#8)

Standard Downs S&P+: 118.5 (#14)
Passing Downs S&P+: 136.9 (#10)

Redzone S&P+: 113.9 (#28)

Q1 S&P+: 130.0 (#16)
Q2 S&P+: 114.9 (#28)
Q3 S&P+: 159.2 (#1)
Q4 S&P+: 95.2 (#80)

1st Down S&P+: 129.9 (#7)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.3 (#22)
3rd Down S&P+: 111.0 (#37)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 123.2 (#13)
Rushing SR+: 115.5 (#20)
Rushing PPP+: 135.6 (#12)

Standard Downs: 115.9 (#25)
Passing Downs: 148.3 (#6)

Redzone: 112.7 (#38)

Line Yards+: 110.2 (#30)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 129.4 (#11)
Passing SR+: 114.1 (#19)
Passing PPP+: 147.2 (#7)

Standard Downs: 127.4 (#9)
Passing Downs: 140.1 (#11)

Redzone: 116.2 (#30)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.3% (#27)

Of all the categories above, in only one did the Cowboys rank outside of the Top 40 (Q4 S&P+), and only twice were they outside the Top 30 (Q4 S&P+, 3rd Down S&P+). They were pretty consistently in the 80th percentile (at least) in most offensive categories.
The major contrast that jumps out here has to be their Q3/Q4 performance. No real explanation for that. Teams who win a lot of blowouts tend to see their Q4 numbers suffer simply because the starters are no longer on the field--Missouri was similar in that regard--and sure enough, OSU saw their fair share of blowouts (39-13 over Wazzu, 57-13 over SMS, 55-24 over Troy, 56-28 over ATM, 34-6 over Baylor). However, they also faced plenty of tight games and didn't fare too well late. In the last ten minutes of their closer games--Missouri, Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon--they scored only 13 points combined. Whether that was poor execution or predictable play-calling (from what I saw of the MU, OU, and UO games, it was a little of both), that clearly needs to improve considerably if they are to finish 2009 in the Top 10.
I'm not a huge fan of the "balance" given love in this ESPN Insider article, simply because there is too much variety in play calls to accurately break things down into "runs" and "passes." For instance, Mizzou uses a lot of "long handoff" types of passes that are simply intended to stretch the field like a wide run play would, but it's categorized as a pass. Simply balancing rushing yardage and passing yardage doesn't say you were equally adept at both.

That said, finishing 13th in Rushing S&P+ and 11th in Passing S&P+ is pretty damn impressive. Granted, six other teams managed Top 15 in both categories--Florida (1st in Rushing S&P+, 3rd in Passing), Penn State (2nd, 6th), Texas Tech (4th, 15th), Oklahoma (6th, 1st), USC (7th, 2nd), and Stanford (10th, 13th)--but still. Impressive.

Quarterback

Zac Robinson: underrated? Correctly rated? Deemed "underrated" so long that he's now overrated? Your call. Dude's good, though.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Robinson (6'3, 218, Sr.)
Alex Cate (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Brandon Weeden (6'4, 215, So.)

In a conference full of superstars at his position, Zac Robinson has managed to stay more-or-less under the radar. Most of that, I'm sure, has to do with the fact that, even in leading his 'Pokes to nine wins last year, OSU was only fourth in the South Division, below teams quarterbacked by Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Graham Harrell. But in justifying their leaping the Cowboys into their preseason Top 10 lists, many writers have cited Robinson as a main reason. He is a unique and uniquely effective quarterback, matching fast legs with fast decision-making.

Even though he is only a decent runner and not a great one (he was 27th among QBs for Rushing POE), he is a persistent one, averaging 12.4 rushes per game in conference play and the Holiday Bowl. And while he isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.

Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Running Backs

Needless to say, Missouri fans know how good Kendall Hunter can be.

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Kendall Hunter (5'8, 190, Jr.)
Keith Toston (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Beau Johnson (5'10, 210, Sr.)

Heading into last year's OSU-Mizzou game, I didn't know just how impressive Kendall Hunter really was. After all, his numbers were no more impressive than those that Dantrell Savage had managed the year before, and besides...how impressed was I supposed to be by his to-date 2008 performance? 23 carries for 107 yards against a pathetic Wazzu defense? Eleven for 132 against SMS? Granted, 22 for 210 against Houston was damn strong no matter how iffy Houston's defense was, and there was nothing wrong with his 24-for-169 against Troy. But still...Mizzou's rushing defense was by far the best OSU had faced at that point in the season.

That he put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

In the end, Hunter posted a +34.0 POE (Points Over Expected) mark, good for 5th in the country (behind Cal's Jahvid Best, Iowa's Shonn Greene, Oregon's LeGarrette Blount, and Georgia Tech's Jonathan Dwyer) and first in the prolific Big 12.

Behind Hunter resides the most proven backup in the conference (outside of Norman, anyway). One-time Mizzou recruiting target Keith Toston has recovered from knee problems to give the 'Pokes a steady #2 option. Toston put up 686 yards in 2008 (6.7 per carry), and his +16.5 POE was good for 27th in the country, ahead of Roy Helu Jr. and Baron Batch, among others. There is little wonder why OSU's RBs ranked 1st in the conference, edging out OU's in the process.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The Man.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Justin Blackmon (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
DeMarcus Conner (6'1, 206, Sr.)
Hubert Anyiam (6'1, 198, So.)
Isaiah Anderson (5'10, 175, RSFr.)
Adrian Richards (6'4, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Wilson Youman (6'5, 252, So.)
Jamal Mosley (6'4, 243, So.)
Cooper Bassett (6'5, 250, RSFr.)

Let's be honest. If you can claim that you recognize any of the names above that aren't "Dez Bryant", you're either a) an OSU fan (and a pretty big one at that), or b) lying. The biggest question mark for the 'Poke offense in 2009 is, will any reliable second threat emerge in the passing game? They don't have to be All-Conference caliber--they just have to be able to make teams pay for double- (or triple-) teaming Dez Bryant. Signs point to...who the hell knows? Justin Blackmon impressed many during spring football, but...well, every year, at every school in the country, somebody impresses during spring football and doesn't make a sound in the fall. He could be amazing, but I'll start believing when he does it in real games (same with Mizzou's Aldon Smith, really). What we know for sure is, the non-Bryant names on that list combined for 12 catches, 141 yards, and 0 TDs in 2008. Damian Davis had "potential" written all over him, and he was a dagger against Missouri, but he went and got himself kicked off the team this spring.

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Offensive Line

Okung leads a super-experienced line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #12 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Russell Okung (6'6, 305, Sr.)
C Andrew Lewis (6'5, 290, Sr.)
T Brady Bond (6'7, 295, Sr.)
G Anthony Morgan (6'5, 320, Jr.)
G Noah Franklin (6'5, 310, Sr.)
T Andrew Mitchell (6'5, 308, Sr.)
G Jonathan Rush (6'5, 309, So.)
G Ahmad Jones (6'2, 309, So.)
C Grant Garner (6'4, 286, So.)
T Patrick Hoog (6'4, 298, RSFr.)

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

Summary

Zac Robinson is a senior. Dez Bryant is almost certain to be projected as a high NFL draft pick next April, and is therefore not likely to return for another season. Keith Toston is a senior, while the only thing that might bring ~~Lindsey~~ (D'OH!) Kendall Hunter back for a senior year is the fact that he's not very big and therefore might not be projected as tremendously draftable. Five of probably the team's six best offensive linemen are seniors.

In other words, the time is now. Whereas most of the Big 12's bottom ten teams will likely improve between 2009 and 2010, OSU will not. If they are to make serious national noise anytime soon, it is going to be in 2009. But hey, no pressure.

While they are not tremendously deep, few teams possess such great individual talent in each unit as OSU does--they have potential All-Americans at QB, RB, WR, and on the OL. For this offense to score the points necessary to challenge the Oklahoma's and Texas's of the world, they must improve on third downs, and they MUST improve in the fourth quarters of close games. Whether that means better conditioning, less nerves, or simply more unpredictability (here's where a great #2 receiving option would come in handy), it has to happen. You know Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy will be calm, confident, and looking to make plays in the fourth quarter. Will Zac Robinson? Will he have the right plays to run? That could make the difference between a South title run and another solid-but-slightly-disappointing 9-win season.

The Fog of '09 - South Offenses

Bill C. — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:00:07 -0000

Quarterbacks

Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here. If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap. If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine. Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario. He's gone. As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South. OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley. OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them. Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09. You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

Oklahoma State (21)
Texas (20)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (12)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will. But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (17)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (13)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (21)
Texas Tech (13)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

Oklahoma State (23)
Texas (18)
Texas Tech (14)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 14:00:05 -0000

OSU	Opp.		Mizzou	Opp.
47.9%		% Close	50.0%
57.1%	42.9%	Field Position %	56.6%	43.4%
72.3%	64.4%	Leverage %	77.3%	67.2%

		Total
350	354	Plays	348	390
194.72	106.51	EqPts	197.57	107.52
53.4%	39.5%	Success Rate	58.0%	39.0%
0.56	0.30	PPP	0.57	0.28
1.091	0.696	S&P	1.148	0.665

		Close Games
203	134	Plays	214	155
108.28	25.19	EqPts	125.51	42.63
52.2%	33.6%	Success Rate	59.3%	38.1%
0.53	0.19	PPP	0.59	0.28
1.056	0.524	S&P	1.180	0.656

		Rushing
121.57	39.86	EqPts	76.15	25.49
53.7%	38.6%	Success Rate	51.5%	35.4%
0.48	0.26	PPP	0.47	0.16
1.014	0.646	S&P	0.983	0.509
3.63	2.91	Line Yds/carry	3.27	2.28

		Passing
73.14	66.65	EqPts	121.43	82.03
52.6%	40.3%	Success Rate	63.8%	41.6%
0.77	0.33	PPP	0.66	0.36
1.296	0.735	S&P	1.294	0.779

		Non-Passing Downs
56.9%	46.9%	Success Rate	62.1%	44.7%
0.53	0.31	PPP	0.59	0.30
1.095	0.779	S&P	1.207	0.749

		Passing Downs
44.3%	26.2%	Success Rate	44.3%	27.3%
0.64	0.28	PPP	0.51	0.22
1.079	0.546	S&P	0.948	0.495

		Turnovers
6	11	Total	5	9
12.63	19.10	Points Lost	14.68	20.67
16.54	39.00	Points Given	12.31	44.40
29.17	58.10	Total T/O Pts	26.99	65.07
*+28.93*	*-28.93*	*T/O Pts Margin*	*+38.08*	*-38.08*

		Q1
53.3%	28.4%	Success Rate	60.9%	44.9%
0.52	0.24	PPP	0.66	0.30
1.056	0.523	S&P	1.264	0.745

		Q2
50.0%	39.8%	Success Rate	59.1%	23.8%
0.53	0.24	PPP	0.59	0.23
1.029	0.635	S&P	1.185	0.463

		Q3
63.9%	51.0%	Success Rate	62.9%	45.0%
0.73	0.36	PPP	0.67	0.36
1.364	0.871	S&P	1.304	0.809

		Q4
47.1%	37.8%	Success Rate	47.3%	33.3%
0.46	0.37	PPP	0.30	0.19
0.929	0.744	S&P	0.772	0.525

		1st Downs
53.8%	40.3%	Success Rate	59.6%	40.9%
0.58	0.25	PPP	0.60	0.30
1.114	0.654	S&P	1.191	0.705

		2nd Downs
51.8%	40.7%	Success Rate	59.8%	34.0%
0.52	0.34	PPP	0.50	0.25
1.040	0.743	S&P	1.095	0.588

		3rd Downs
52.5%	29.6%	Success Rate	53.8%	38.9%
0.58	0.23	PPP	0.63	0.28
1.108	0.530	S&P	1.166	0.665

Thoughts...

OSU's offensive leverage total is a little low to me, considering they haven't played many great defenses. A 72% rate against iffy competition means Mizzou could force them into the high-60% range. What that means is, a lot of passing downs for OSU. Now, they've done well so far in Passing Downs this year, but still...the more PD's for OSU, the better for Mizzou.
Both teams are obviously explosive on offense and decent on defense, but you see from the numbers that, against slightly harder competition, Mizzou's offensive and defensive numbers have both been a bit better. That's encouraging. However, in close games, OSU's defense has been mighty stout so far.
OSU's 3.63 Line Yards per carry is simply astounding. That's really, really good. Combined with the meager two sacks they've allowed, you begin to think that OSU has a pretty damn stout offensive line, huh?
Meanwhile, MU's only giving up 0.16 PPP rushing. Even when they give up some yards, they're pretty empty yards.
OSU and MU have pretty much identical S&P numbers in the passing game, but the sheer quantity of passing tells you something. OSU appears to be an "establish the run, beat 'em deep" team...which is obviously a bit different than Mizzou's strategy.
Mizzou's success rate is 62.1% on Non-Passing Downs. Oy.
Both defenses are good on Passing Downs, but Mizzou's has been a smidge better. Take out the horrific breakdowns against Illinois four games ago, and Mizzou's Passing Down breakdowns have been minimal at best.
Both offenses are great in every quarter (I'm ignoring Q4 numbers, as neither teams have played many meaningful plays in Q4), but they're best in Q3. Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense seems to be iffy in the 'gameplan' quarters (Q1/Q3) and dominant in the 'talent' quarters (Q2/Q4), while OSU's defense gets a little worse each quarter. Keep that last point in mind if they're actually slowing Mizzou down early.

Projections after the jump.

So this week we're going to slowly break 2008 numbers into the '+' projections. While I still don't have '+' numbers for 2008--I only have BCS results, not non-BCS results--I do have 2008 averages. Now, they've been skewed a bit by strength of schedule and small sample size, but that's what my "Adjusted for 2008" line is for. So with those disclaimers out of the way, let's go...

Mizzou-Oklahoma State '+' Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2008 Oklahoma State Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 7.96
Projection #1: 10.88
2007 Oklahoma State Rushing Defense EqPts+: 93.71
2008 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 15.23
Projection #2: 16.25

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.57

Adjusted for 2008: 19.0. Quite simply, OSU hasn't played a team with nearly the rushing game that Missouri has. Until somebody stops Derrick Washington, I'm projecting up with this one.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2008 Oklahoma State Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.33
Projection #1: 20.90
2007 Oklahoma State Passing Defense EqPts+: 91.63
2008 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 24.29
Projection #2: 26.51

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 23.71

Adjusted for 2008: 28.0. As I stated yesterday in the Roundtable, OSU's defensive line has generated two sacks so far this year in five games. That's simply not going to cut it. Without pressure generated from the opponent's defensive line, Chase Daniel has shown that he will effortlessly, mercilessly pick a defense apart.

Oklahoma State Rushing

2007 Oklahoma State Rushing Offense EqPts+: 147.53
2008 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 5.10
Projection #1: 7.52
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2008 Oklahoma State Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 24.31
Projection #2: 19.94

Projected Oklahoma State Rushing Output: 13.73

Adjusted for 2008: 14.0. Illinois has the #19 rushing offense in the nation. Nevada has the #4 rushing offense. And yet Mizzou is still giving up only 5.10 rushing EqPts per game. I'm not saying they'll shut down OSU's attack by any means--14 points is still a solid amount--but I doubt OSU will be able to put up anywhere near their current averages.

Oklahoma State Passing

2007 Oklahoma State Passing Offense EqPts+: 129.62
2008 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 16.41
Projection #1: 21.27
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2008 Oklahoma State Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.63
Projection #2: 14.08

Projected Oklahoma State Passing Output: 17.68

Adjusted for 2008: 15.0. This will depend on the health of Brandon "You Might Remember Me From Last Year's Ridiculous Coaches' All-Conference Team" Pettigrew. Pettigrew is day-to-day, and if he can't play and Dez Bryant is the only sure thing in the OSU receiving corps, I do not expect big things from the OSU passing game. Even with Pettigrew, Zac Robinson has not yet had to throw a pressure-packed pass this season. When you're gashing teams on the ground, it's easy to throw a play-action bomb to somebody as good as Dez Bryant. If the ground yards/points aren't coming quite as easy, Robinson will find himself in some passing downs.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 47.0, Oklahoma State 29.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 51, Oklahoma State 27.

Key Players: Oklahoma State

QB Zac Robinson

He rushed for 79 yards against Texas A&M. He threw for 320 against Houston. Bottom line: he's in the wrong conference. He'd possibly be the best QB in just about any other conference in the country, but at best he's #4 or #5 in the Big 12. That aside, he's a huge wildcard because of his legs and his arm, and he gets his chance to shine in front of possibly the biggest TV audience for which he's played. He put up 108 rushing yards and 276 passing yards against Kansas last year. Granted, they lost that game, but he's dangerous.

WR Dez Bryant

He's a cross between Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree in terms of size and speed, and he's a threat to score any time he touches the ball. He had one of the most impressive punt return TDs you'll ever see last week against ATM. If the Robinson-to-Bryant connection gets going, OSU can match Missouri score for score. If it doesn't...well, no other OSU receiver currently averages more than 1 catch a game. It's Bryant or nothing, unless Brandon Pettigrew quickly re-emerges for a huge game after injury.

LT Russell Okung, LG Andrew Lewis, C David Washington, RG Steve Denning, RT Brady Bond

The OSU offensive line is the key to the Pokes' 315 rushing yards per game and 3.63 line yards per carry, not to mention the fact that they've obviously been key in Zac Robinson only being sacked twice in five games. Mizzou's front four is by far the best they've faced so far. Lose this battle, lose the game...fast.

CB Perrish Cox

This one is two-fold. First, Cox has the highest ceiling of any OSU defensive back. If anybody is going to make a big play in the secondary, chances are it will be him. Second, he's a ridiculously dangerous kickoff returner, and though Bryant's a great punt returner...well, chances are OSU will be returning a lot more kickoffs than punts, right? Buffalo was able to stay close to Missouri early in the game because of Ernest Jackson's kick return TD. A quick TD from Cox would take the starch out of what will likely be a crazy nighttime crowd at Faurot.

Key Players: Missouri

Every Mizzou WR/TE/RB/QB and their hands

OSU has not proven that they'll be able to get pressure on Chase Daniel. That suggests that the only way they're going to stop Missouri is going to be with turnovers. They forced a boatload (five) of them against Texas A&M last week, and it made the difference in the game; we all know that Mizzou's WRs suddenly contracted a case of fumbleitis against Buffalo less than three weeks ago. If Mizzou doesn't turn the ball over, they don't lose.

CB Carl Gettis

Nobody's been higher on Carl Gettis than your good friends here at Rock M Nation. And you can add Nate Swift to the list of #1 WRs who turned into non-factors at the hands of Mizzou's lockdown CB. However, Dez Bryant is really, really good. If Gettis wins this battle, Mizzou will roll. If he can fight the battle to a draw (which is what I'm hoping for), Mizzou will win comfortably. If Bryant has his way against Gettis (and the others who end up covering him at different times), OSU will be right in this game.

DTs Ziggy Hood and Jaron Baston

Dez Bryant scares me the most, but OSU's running game is still plenty frightening, especially with Zac Robinson threatening to run more. OSU's offensive line has been dominant so far, but they haven't faced a D-line as good as Mizzou's. If Hood and Baston hold their own, and Mizzou's LBs are free to take on Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston, I like that matchup.

FS William Moore

I'm going to keep him on here until I know he's full-speed. When we have a 100% Willy Mo in the defensive backfield, Mizzou's defense will be all sorts of dangerous.

Summary

It's not OSU's fault that they haven't played anybody too good yet (not that Mizzou's played a muderer's row, by any means), but it does make predictions difficult. Both offenses are better and more well-rounded than any either defense has faced so far, but I think this game comes down to star power. OSU's got a lot on offense; Mizzou's got as much or more on offense, and a solid amount on defense as well. On a play-making level, Derrick Washington has a better chance of keeping up with Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston than Dez Bryant has of keeping up with Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, Danario "Boy, didn't I sure look 100% last Saturday?" Alexander, Tommy Saunders, and Jared Perry. And while Zac Robinson is good, he's not as good as Chase Daniel.

What Mizzou's offense is so good at is not only putting pressure on an opponent's defense, but an opponent's offense as well. Think back to last Saturday. Mizzou scored in under a minute, and Nebraska responded with a nice TD drive of its own. Mizzou responded with another score, and Nebraska put together a decent drive that stalled out in Mizzou territory. Mizzou kicked a FG, and then Nebraska had its first bad drive of the night. Mizzou scored another TD, and despite having only one truly bad drive, NU found itself down 24-7. OSU has an offense that can respond well and perform well in a shootout. But one bad possession, and OSU could be down 10 points. They haven't found themselves in that situation since last year's OU game, and that didn't end well.

In the end, Mizzou's offensive consistency makes the difference in what should really be a fun game to watch. A turnover here, or a big special teams play there, and this is a nip-and-tuck game. But for now, I'm saying Mizzou 52, Oklahoma State 28.

SB Nation - Andrew Lewis

In the Trenches - Answering the Call

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

The Fog of '09 - South Offenses

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Offensive Lines

South Offenses, 2009

Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

OSU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.