SB Nation - Damiam Davis

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Oklahoma St. Cowboys

Seth C — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:12 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers // Game 8: Texas A&M Aggies // Game 9: Kansas Jayhawks // Game 10: Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It seems that the preseason question of the year is if Oklahoma State is the 2008 version of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. I've mentioned before that I'm not completely sold on Oklahoma St., despite the fact that I do beleive they may be the most offensively well-balanced team in the Big 12.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at Oklahoma St.

General Information

Opponent	Oklahoma State University
Nickname	Cowboys
Location	Stillwater, OK
Enrollment	23,307
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
2008 Record	9-3 (5-3)
Starters Returning/Lost	14/8
Blogs	None
Links	2009 Media Guide 2009 Game Day Guide

Statistics


Statistic	Oklahoma State	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	242.23 (38)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	245.46 (8)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	487.69 (6)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	40.77 (9)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	164.71 (5)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	1.23 (17)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	267.69 (109)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	137.85 (52)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	405.54 (93)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	28.08 (76)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	130.81 (74)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	1.15 (107)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	5.15 (87)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	0.38 (35)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Kendall Hunter (241 / 1,555 yds / 16 TD)
Passing	Zac Robinson (204-314 / 3,064 yds / 25 TD / 10 Int)
Receiving	Dez Bryant (87 rec. / 1,480 yds / 19 TD)
Tackles	Andre Sexton (100)
Sacks	Jeremiah Price (3.0)
Interceptions	Perrish Cox (2)

A Few Things

What Worries Me: Here's the thing. Oklahoma St. should be improved this year and I can understand how folks think that OSU is going to be this year's version of Texas Tech. I can't base any of my thoughts on OSU on something rational and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys prove me wrong, but I still can't get it out of my head that OSU just didn't show up against Texas Tech, a team that many thought up until that time, were contemporaries. I can understand the losses to Oklahoma and Oregon, but not even showing up bothers me. Maybe I should just let it go, but it's stuck with me through the offseason.
Balanced and Explosive Offense: We talked in the Kansas prospectus about the Jayhawk trio and there's no doubt in my mind that Oklahoma State's trio is superior. Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and the workhorse of the offense, Kendall Hunter, are big-time players. I don't know if they'll surpass last year's offensive numbers, but they'll match them. The one thing that worries me is that all-world tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, has moved onto the NFL, which means that Robinson's second options is no longer available. In fact, Bryant had 87 catches last year, which was more Oklahoma State's three other pass catchers, Pettigrew (42), Damiam Davis (19) and Kendall Hunter (22). Pettigrew's possible replacements, Jamal Moseley and Wilson Youman, had a combined 6 catches last year.
Play Making Defense Wanted: There's really not a Big 12 defense that played incredibly well last year, however, the Cowboys' defense was 93rd in the nation in total defense and was 109th in pass defense (more on that below). On top of that, OSU had serious trouble getting to any quarterback and was 107th in the nation at sacking the QB last year. The problem is that last year's unit had very little production and that also means there's very little production returning. I know that Bill Young tends to work miracles with defenses and to be honest, I think OSU has recruited very well over the years, but I'm not convinced that changing the defensive coordinator means that Oklahoma St. deserves to be a top 10 team, especially when the defense hasn't proven that it deserves this spot.
Replacing Three-Fourths of a Secondary: Much like Texas Tech, OSU must replace both safeties and a cornerback (why is no one else talking about that?). Projected FS Lucien Antoine had 1 tackle last year and projected SS Victor Johnson had 19. Safety is always a big position to fill and considering OSU was less than stellar last year defending the pass, look for this to be an issue for Oklahoma St. this year.
Spaced Out Schedule: The one thing that I like about Oklahoma State is that the Cowboys really don't have an incredibly tough stretch and they have eight games at home. Opening against Georgia and Houston at home should be relatively easy. the next big game comes against Texas, again, at home, with a week of Iowa State between the Horns and Texas Tech. Then another week against an inferior opponent in Colorado, and then Oklahoma. In other words, there's not this tough three game stretch like so many teams faced last year and there's no doubt that the schedule favors Oklahoma St.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Oklahoma St. Cowboys?

1

15 votes

2

12 votes

3

42 votes

4

128 votes

5

91 votes

288 votes | Poll has closed

The Fog of '09 - South Offenses

Bill C. — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:00:07 -0000

Quarterbacks

Oklahoma (Sam Bradford--for now; if not...?)
Texas (Colt McCoy--for now; if not...John Chiles?)
Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson)
Baylor (Hot Tub Griffin III)
Texas Tech (Taylor Potts)
Texas A&M (Jerrod Johnson)

Obviously, there's a lot of "if" here. If Bradford's gone, OU falls to #6 because they don't have another QB who's taken a single snap. If McCoy's gone, you figure Chiles gets the first shot at the job, and while he's decent, UT still falls to #5 on this list.

Running Backs

Oklahoma State (Kendall Hunter, Keith Toston)
Oklahoma (DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown)
Texas (Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee)
Texas Tech (Baron Batch, Aaron Crawford)
Baylor (Jay Finley, Jeremy Sanders)
Texas A&M (Mike Goodson--for now; if not...Bradley Stephens?)

I firmly expect Goodson to go pro if he's healthy enough for the combine. Even with him, though, it appears that every other South team has better depth at RB than ATM.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Oklahoma State (Dez Bryant, Damian Davis, DeMarcus Connor)
Texas (Malcolm Williams, Dan Buckner, Brandon Collins)
Texas Tech (Detron Lewis, Edward Britton, Tramain Swindall)
Texas A&M (Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy)
Oklahoma (Ryan Broyles, Brandon Caleb, Jameel Owens)
Baylor (David Gettis, Ernest Smith, Kendall Wright)

I am 99.999% sure Michael Crabtree is going pro, so we're not even going to pretend with an "If he's still at Tech" scenario. He's gone. As are a lot of the other proven WRs in the South. OSU ends up on top here, though Texas almost looks to have a better WR corps next year despite losing Cosby and Shipley. OU's unit could be solid, and you know they have plenty of good recruits to plug in the holes, but losing Iglesias and Manny Johnson will hurt them. Broyles could be a major stud, though.

Offensive Lines

Texas (OT Adam Ulatoski, C Chris Hall, OT Kyle Hix)
Oklahoma State (OT Russell Okung, OT Brady Bond, OG Andrew Lewis)
Texas A&M (OT Michael Shumard, OG Evan Eike, C Kevin Matthews)
Texas Tech (OT Marlon Winn, OG Brandon Carter, ...?)
Oklahoma (OT Trent Williams, ...?)
Baylor (OG James Barnard, C JD Walton, OG Chris Griesenbeck)

It might behoove Sam Bradford to seriously think about entering the NFL draft this coming year...as his stock could fall in the '10 draft after running for his life all season long in '09. You know OU's O-line will still be reasonably competent, but this appears to be a 2005-esque rebuilding year for OU in the trenches.

South Offenses, 2009

Oklahoma State (21)
Texas (20)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (12)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (7)

You know Tech and OU (if Bradford comes back) will have competent offenses in 2009--they just will. But continuity at OSU and UT appear to give them edges here.

If Colt McCoy goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (17)
Oklahoma (15)
Texas Tech (13)
Texas A&M (9)
Baylor (8)

If Sam Bradford goes pro

Oklahoma State (22)
Texas (21)
Texas Tech (13)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (8)

If McCoy AND Bradford go pro

Oklahoma State (23)
Texas (18)
Texas Tech (14)
Oklahoma (10)
Texas A&M (10)
Baylor (9)

This does show the strength of the South--Baylor's got their most exciting QB, possibly ever, and ATM has a nice, young QB with some nice, young WRs...and they're still bringing up the rear in just about every scenario.

One thing's for certain: Mike Gundy better start googling "How to handle the hype" right now, because I see no way OSU isn't a preseason Top 6-8 team next year.

Oklahoma State Preview, Part 2: Passing Offense

Peter Bean — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:19:18 -0000

We continue our OSU preview with a day-late look at the Cowboys' passing offense. As emphasized in Part 1 of this preview series, whatever perception exists about Oklahoma State being a one-dimensional team, the truth is that this team runs and passes equally well--their diversity preventing teams shutting down the Cowboys merely by overloading to stop the run or the pass.

As such, analyzing OSU's rush or pass offense in isolation is of limited utility; since Part 1 looked exclusively at their rush game, after the jump I take a macro look at the Cowboys' offensive success so far in 2008. Each scoring drive for the season is charted by number of plays in the drive, yards covered, TD type, and scoring player. Southwest Missouri State is excluded as irrelevant.

A synopsis and game analysis follows the data.

Charts? Charts.

Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
WSU	8	17	FG	26
	8	67	RUSH	11	Hunter
	11	56	FG	21
	4	8	FG	27
			KO Return	90	Cox
	9	61	RUSH	1	Robinson
	4	39	RUSH	10	Hunter
Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
HOU	3	80	RUSH	58	Hunter
	8	80	PASS	39	Bryant
	4	75	RUSH	28	Toston
	3	31	PASS	29	Bryant
	3	86	PASS	74	Bryant
	10	82	RUSH	10	Hunter
	9	62	RUSH	5	Toston
			Punt Return	71	Bryant
Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
TROY	11	67	PASS	16	Bryant
	9	54	RUSH	4	Hunter
	9	74	PASS	26	Bryant
	5	76	PASS	44	Bryant
	4	56	RUSH	17	Hunter
	11	99	RUSH	1	Toston
	11	74	FG	22
	16	65	FG	19
	2	19	RUSH	16	Toston
Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
A&M			INT Return	6
	6	56	PASS	29	Bryant
			Punt Return	78	Bryant
			INT Return	22
	7	62	PASS	23	Bryant
	5	68	RUSH	6	Robinson
	3	37	PASS	21	Bryant
	12	77	RUSH	7	Robinson
Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
MU	13	71	RUSH	6	Robinson
	2	72	RUSH	68	Hunter
	4	66	PASS	40	Davis
	3	29	PASS	31	Davis
Opp.	Drive Plays	Drive Yds	Score Type	Score Yds	Player
BU	11	61	RUSH	4	Toston
	4	62	PASS	37	Bryant
	12	81	PASS	9	Bryant
	11	47	RUSH	2	Toston
	8	61	FG	20
	9	64	FG	21

That's a lot of data. So how about some... More charts? More charts.

Score Type:	FG	Rush	Pass	ST	Def
	7	17	13	3	2

Drive Plays:	1-5	6-10	11+
	15	12	10

TD Distance:	1-10	11-20	21+
	12	4	13

TD By:	Hunter	Robinson	Toston	Bryant	Davis
	7	4	6	13	2

Had enough charting yet? Yes? Very well, let's move on to the...

ANALYSIS

The point of plotting all this out was to look at how OSU's been putting up 40+ points per game this year. We don't really care how they scored against SW Missouri State, but looking at their scoring distribution by type, distance, etc against their D1 opponents offers some insight into how the Pokes are getting it done. To the bullet points:

Dez Bryant is killing OSU opponents via the big play, with 2 punt returns for TDs (71 and 78 yards) and 11 TDs, all but 2 of which have gone for 20 yards or more--39, 29, 74, 16, 26, 44, 29, 23, 21, 37, and 9. You don't need to wait for Horn Brain or BZ to tell you that averages to a big number--34.5 yards per TD reception.
The Cowboys can sustain drives, with more than a handful of 11+ scoring drives. However, only 5 of those drives have come in Big 12 play, and 3 were against Baylor. Can OSU sustain scoring drives against a team with a nasty rush defense? The Missouri game suggests "no"--that was a game won with big plays (see first chart above).
Special teams will matter. The Pokes have picked up three additional scores from kickoff and punt returns. As the Sooners found out in Dallas this year, that can change everything. And Texas fans need only think back to the KSU game last year to remember the pain that can accompany poor return coverage.
The OSU passing game lives and dies with Bryant. Not charted above is the Cowboys passing game for the season, but check out the receiver distribution in the team's season box score: Bryant leads the team with 45 receptions and Brandon Pettigrew has the second most with... 11.
Chykie Brown is the player to watch. At 6-1 and playing the best football of any Texas CB, Chykie is likely the one to be on Bryant's jock Saturday afternoon. He'll have safety help, no doubt, but his ability to frustrate Bryant will be the match up of the day.
To bump of not to bump? Given OSU's dependance on the big play, if you were Will Muschamp would you jam Bryant at the line of scrimmage to slow down the time it takes him to get downfield? Probably depends on whether Texas pass rush is killing the OSU offensive line; if they are, Robinson will be forced to get the ball out quickly and turn elsewhere for yardage.
Safety discipline is critical. Mike Gundy will try repeatedly to fool Texas' young safeties into over-committing to rush support while Bryant and Damiam Davis streak deep. If Thomas or Gideon bite at the wrong time, our corners will be left one-on-one with the scariest receiver in the Big 12, if not country.
It's all moot if: Texas D-Line demolishes the Cowboys up front. We can talk tactics all day, but if OSU can't rush the ball or give Robinson a little time to work some play action, the Cowboys are not likely to march methodically for 10-15 plays against this defense. No, that was what I feared Missouri might be able to do. If they can't, OSU won't, either.

Mizzou-Texas: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

Bill C. — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:30:04 -0000

As we look at this season's to-date BTBS stats, keep in mind that we can approximately say that Mizzou and UT have played similar schedules. I mean, OU > OSU, but Illinois > anybody UT played in non-conference. In the end, it's more or less balanced out (to my naked eye, anyway), and we can take these stats at something close to face value.

Mizzou	Opp.		Texas	Opp.
58.1%		% Close	54.1%
56.1%	43.9%	Field Position %	56.5%	43.5%
78.0%	66.9%	Leverage %	77.3%	62.3%

		Total
416	462	Plays	428	398
225.66	134.25	EqPts	204.58	107.25
57.7%	39.4%	Success Rate	51.9%	34.9%
0.54	0.29	PPP	0.48	0.27
1.116	0.685	S&P	0.997	0.619

		Close Games
284	227	Plays	237	210
153.60	69.36	EqPts	130.01	60.23
58.5%	39.2%	Success Rate	54.9%	35.7%
0.54	0.31	PPP	0.55	0.29
1.125	0.698	S&P	1.097	0.644

		Rushing
83.61	38.73	EqPts	89.93	18.85
52.0%	35.4%	Success Rate	47.7%	31.6%
0.47	0.19	PPP	0.37	0.14
0.987	0.542	S&P	0.850	0.455
3.23	2.28	Line Yds/carry	3.22	2.28

		Passing
142.05	95.51	EqPts	114.65	88.41
61.9%	42.6%	Success Rate	57.2%	36.6%
0.59	0.37	PPP	0.61	0.34
1.214	0.799	S&P	1.185	0.704

		Non-Passing Downs
62.6%	44.7%	Success Rate	54.7%	40.7%
0.56	0.31	PPP	0.45	0.27
1.184	0.762	S&P	0.994	0.678

		Passing Downs
41.3%	28.8%	Success Rate	42.3%	25.3%
0.46	0.24	PPP	0.58	0.27
0.876	0.529	S&P	1.007	0.527

		Turnovers
8	12	Total	6	9
23.53	28.95	Points Lost	16.72	22.00
18.40	50.19	Points Given	20.55	35.12
41.93	79.14	Total T/O Pts	37.27	57.12
+37.21	-37.21	*T/O Pts Margin*	+19.85	-19.85

		Q1
60.0%	46.6%	Success Rate	53.8%	38.9%
0.62	0.30	PPP	0.51	0.25
1.218	0.768	S&P	1.050	0.635

		Q2
56.6%	36.5%	Success Rate	60.6%	39.0%
0.56	0.23	PPP	0.58	0.37
1.124	0.592	S&P	1.186	0.765

		Q3
63.3%	37.5%	Success Rate	54.3%	25.0%
0.63	0.35	PPP	0.44	0.20
1.263	0.728	S&P	0.981	0.453

		Q4
49.5%	38.0%	Success Rate	36.3%	34.7%
0.32	0.29	PPP	0.38	0.24
0.814	0.669	S&P	0.741	0.587

		1st Downs
59.7%	41.5%	Success Rate	48.1%	37.0%
0.56	0.32	PPP	0.47	0.25
1.160	0.732	S&P	0.954	0.616

		2nd Downs
60.0%	35.3%	Success Rate	55.2%	34.1%
0.50	0.26	PPP	0.48	0.25
1.097	0.617	S&P	1.037	0.591

		3rd Downs
49.2%	40.2%	Success Rate	52.7%	33.7%
0.55	0.27	PPP	0.48	0.37
1.043	0.669	S&P	1.006	0.707

Thoughts...

This game will likely lie on the right arms of the two BFF's, Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy, as both teams have pretty stout run defenses. UT's run defense is a little better, but MU's run offense is better, so unless Ogbonnaya continues to break off 1-2 big runs a game, this is pretty much a wash.
One thing I find interesting: UT allows 2.28 line yards per carry. So does Mizzou. That's a very good number, but looking at the overall rushing numbers, I'd have expected a little better for UT. For instance, they allow a 0.455 rushing S&P (compared to Mizzou's 0.542); but UT and Mizzou have allowed the exact same LY/carry. The reason: while Mizzou has allowed few big rushes (longest five rushes: 68, 41, 35, 22, 18), UT has allowed almost no big rushes (longest five carries: 26, 26, 21, 21, 19). Really, the only difference between the Mizzou rush defense and that of Texas is Kendall Hunter's 68-yard TD run and a 41-yard scamper by Illinois' Daniel Dufrene (which I do not even remotely remember--that game was a Shiner-and-Jager-fueled blur).
Both teams are good at the leverage (avoiding Passing Downs on offense, moving opponents toward them on defense). They stay near 80% leverage while holding their opponents near 60-65%. Mizzou held OSU near 65%, while Texas held OU to 66%. Again, this is important because even teams who generally perform well on Passing Downs can get bitten by them eventually (Mizzou against OSU, for instance). The lower the leverage %, the more passing downs a team has to face.
To no one's surprise, Mizzou has been more explosive than Texas to date (0.54 PPP vs 0.48 PPP). UT's PPP has risen in the last couple of games, thanks to a few long plays to Chris Ogbonnaya. I can't figure Ogbonnaya out--he doesn't look fast at all, but defenders can't seem to catch up to him. And I don't know how much of his success has been due to his own skills or the skills of Colt McCoy and the guys blocking for him, but he's torched a decent defense (Colorado) and a good one (Oklahoma) so far, and you can't argue with results.
Both teams have similar S&P margins, both overall and in close games. In close games, MU is +0.427 (1.125 on offense, 0.698 on defense), while UT is +0.453.
Both teams have the tendency to give up some big pass plays (they both allow at least 0.34 PPP in the passing game), but the key for Texas will be holding Mizzou as close as possible to the 37% success rate that Texas opponents have managed so far, instead of the 62% Mizzou has put up. And it all ends up tying together. An unsuccessful passing attempt here and there means more Passing Downs...and Mizzou sucked on Passing Downs against OSU.
And speaking once more of Passing Downs, both defenses have been identically strong in this regard.
Turnovers could always swing either way, but so far Mizzou has had a tendency of making more of the turnover game than UT has--they've benefitted from t/o's by about 3 more points per game.
Mizzou's offense is best in Q1 and Q3, while their defense is best in Q2 and Q4, but overall they've been pretty consistently strong in both categories. Meanwhile, OU game aside, UT has been best on offense in the first half and best on defense in the second half.
Texas' defense has the overall advantage on Mizzou's, but Mizzou has been better (and allowed fewer big plays) on third downs. Keep that in mind.

Projections after the jump.

Mizzou-Texas '+' Projections

Mizzou Rushing

2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
2008 Texas Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 3.14
Projection #1: 4.29
2007 Texas Rushing Defense EqPts+: 138.88
2008 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 13.94
Projection #2: 10.04

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 7.17

Adjusted for 2008: 5.0. No, I haven't lost my faith in Derrick Washington (or as the scoreboard at Faurot calls him, Der Washington) and the Mizzou offensive line. I just don't see Mizzou attempting to run a ton, and I'm okay with that. That's right, I'm okay with it, and for one reason: I see Mizzou having a lot of success with the "run-esque" short passes. The true "rushing" output will be small, but the whole idea (to paraphrase horrifically) behind a balance of run-pass is that you can exploit holes close to and far from the line of scrimmage. Mizzou's short passing game is really just a series of long pitches, and if they can use that to their advantage, they'll be in this game.

But it sure wouldn't hurt if Derrick Washington was able to actually break a decent run here and there...something Texas really hasn't allowed all year.

Mizzou Passing

2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
2008 Texas Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 14.74
Projection #1: 23.11
2007 Texas Passing Defense EqPts+: 106.08
2008 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 23.68
Projection #2: 22.32

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 22.72

Adjusted for 2008: 25.0. Texas has been pretty decent at defending the pass, but a) those short passes I just referenced will count as passing yards, obviously, and b) they have indeed given up some deep balls. The opportunity will be there for Chase Daniel to have a big game, as long as the line protects him.

Texas Rushing

2007 Texas Rushing Offense EqPts+: 143.27
2008 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 6.46
Projection #1: 9.26
2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
2008 Texas Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.99
Projection #2: 12.29

Projected Texas Rushing Output: 10.78

Adjusted for 2008: 10.0. This projection is based mostly off of a) my confidence in Mizzou's rush defense, and b) my fear of Texas' dump-off passes. Like MU, I expect UT to succeed more throwing than running. Then again, if Mizzou's DEs let Colt McCoy get out of the pocket in "run or throw" territory, the points could add up.

Texas Passing

2007 Texas Passing Offense EqPts+: 116.46
2008 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 15.92
Projection #1: 18.54
2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
2008 Texas Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.11
Projection #2: 18.39

Projected Texas Passing Output: 18.46

Adjusted for 2008: 19.0. A disciplined defense could see success against Texas' offense--if you keep Colt McCoy in the pocket, don't miss any assignments (like OU started to do after Ryan Reynolds got hurt), and tackle well, they don't necessarily have guys who can create an 80-yard TD out of thin air (though Jordan Shipley did look great against OU). But they take advantage of mistakes, and Mizzou has the tendency to make a couple a game in the passing game.

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 30.0, Texas 29.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Texas 32, Mizzou 27

Texas: Key Players

RB Chris Ogbonnaya

Ogbonnaya has gone crazy in the last two weeks, catching even some UT fans off-guard. He has benefited from circumstance as much as anything--Colt McCoy's crazy last-possible-second dump-off pass to him against CU (I'm sure you saw the replay) was almost all on Colt, and his big, all-but-game-clinching run against OU was as much on OU's backup MLB for getting horrifically out of position. But even with that said, it's clear that he's emerged as a weapon, and Mizzou has to account for him. Cody Johnson is great near the goalline, but that's really his only purpose. Vondrell McGee hasn't proven worthy of a starter's load just yet, and explosive and injury-prone RSFr Fozzy Whitaker is more myth than reality thus far (seriously, BON loves that guy). Unless Whitaker suddenly emerges, it's on Ogbonnaya to be both the main running threat and the guy who McCoy dumps off to for good yardage.

Either WR Jordan Shipley or WR Quan Cosby -- whichever isn't being covered by Carl Gettis

Credit where it's due: Mizzou once again shut down an opponent's #1 receiving threat last week (Dez Bryant had just 47 yards), and it wan't even very much due to Carl "The Best CB Nobody's Heard Of" Gettis. Mizzou decided to put the bigger Castine Bridges on him most of the night (and hit him early and often), and it worked. However, once again a different receiver emerged with a big game--Damian Davis had 76 yards and 2 TDs. Neither Shipley nor Cosby are very big, so it's a given that Mizzou will stick Gettis on whichever they deem the #1 threat, and that receiver probably won't do much. But the other one could make the difference between Texas scoring 20 points and Texas scoring 40.

LB Roddrick Muckelroy

I mentioned previously that, in playing against the Mizzou offense, it doesn't matter how good your LBs are, and it barely matters how good your secondary is. OSU prove me wrong somewhat and proved that there's a way to beat Mizzou without having tremendous DEs: shoot the gaps with reckless abandon, confuse Mizzou's O-line, and tackle well. Texas will beat Mizzou if a) they can blow up Mizzou's running game and b) they can then tackle well and contain the short passes. The main man in regard to both (a) and (b) could be Muckelroy. He leads the UT defense with 20.5 'successful' tackles from the WLB position, and he allows SLB Sergio Kindle to serve as basically a rush end. Kindle and Brian Orakpo have gotten most of the headlines from UT's front seven, but Muckelroy could be the key against Mizzou.

S's Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas

Repeat after me: "Chase Daniel is going against a secondary led by two freshman safeties." Gideon and Thomas might be playing above their years so far this year (Thomas looked great against OU), but OU still passed for almost 400 yards last week, and if anybody can make them look like freshmen quickly and precisely, it's Daniel.

Mizzou: Key Players

QB Chase Daniel

We'll go with one big "DUH!" for this one. The last time Mizzou was coming off of an unexpected loss (2006 Iowa State), Daniel responded with 356 passing yards and 4 TDs (plus 39 rushing yards). He might need 456 yards this Saturday, but it's in him to bounce back from his worst performance in two years, and if Mizzou is going to beat the #1 team on the road, they'll do it via his right arm.

OLs Ryan Madison, Tim Barnes and Kurtis Gregory

These three are the starters on the interior of Mizzou's O-line. UT has great DEs, and therefore Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher will also need to pack a lunch; but OSU was able to break down the middle of MU's O-line quite effectively, and if they fail to do their job, this could kill both the Mizzou running game and passing game. Derrick Washington thrived up the middle for the first five games of the year, and there was nothing there against OSU. I do think Mizzou can win without Washington being a running threat (as I suggested above), but the margin for error becomes much, much smaller...especially if UT has an up-the-middle pass rush to complement Kindle and Orakpo.

DEs Stryker Sulak and Tommy Chavis

The best point Gabe at PowerMizzou made in today's PM mailbag is that Colt McCoy is at his best outside the pocket. He is a gunslinger-type, improvising and creating on the fly; basically, he's what I thought we were getting in Chase Daniel (instead of the automated computer that he turned out to be). His best plays come in high-risk, high-reward situations, and eventually that could backfire on him--just think of all the different ways his aforementioned spur-of-the-moment sideline pass to Ogbonnaya against Colorado could have backfired. But it hasn't backfired on him in 2008 yet.

When Colt's out of the pocket, he's in his comfort zone--when he's stuck in the pocket, he becomes more mistake-prone. Sulak and Chavis have both done well in making plays in the backfield, but if they get to McCoy, they better bring him down. Otherwise, simply containing him is the best option. If Good Colt is on display, chances are our DEs aren't playing very well.

FS William Moore

I mentioned last week that I would continue to put William Moore on the "Key Players" list until he has a big game. Well, he started to look like Willy Mo against OSU, but until he has a big pick, he's not back to 100%. He is Mizzou's game-changer, and at some point soon he's going to step up. And if he wants to be the one who makes McCoy pay for gunslinging ways, I won't complain.

Summary

No matter what you believe in the "Texas spurned Chase spurned Texas" saga, chances are that Chase Daniel marked this Saturday's game on his calendar the moment after he put ink to paper and faxed in his Letter of Intent in February 2005. What's funny is, while Mizzou has played well in Texas with Chase at the helm (romping through last year's Cotton Bowl, whipping Texas Tech in '06), Daniel himself hasn't played all that well. Needless to say, that ends Saturday. Mizzou won't beat Texas without Daniel having one of those ridiculously good days we've enjoyed over the last two years.

It's easy to remain haunted by the OSU loss (and judging from the aforementioned PowerMizzou mailbag, most Mizzou fans still are), but let's realize two things: 1) every team in the country has lost a game like that in the last year and a half, and 2) not a single Mizzou player will be thinking a single OSU-related thought this Saturday. It's removed from their head, and what remains is the fact that if Mizzou is going to win its first ever major-sport national title, it will have to beat Texas. No margin for error, no "They can still win out after this game and maybe have a chance" scenario. It's all or nothing for Mizzou, and we'll see how they respond.

I said yesterday that if Mizzou wins, I always want to say I predicted it. Well, I predicted a Mizzou win yesterday--I've got that covered. Today, I'm going with what the stats tell me and challenging Chase Daniel (and Cheat Code Maclin, for that matter, since I haven't mentioned him once in this preview) to make up the difference. Texas 31, Mizzou 27. Prove me wrong, Mizzou.