SB Nation - Brandon Pettigrew

Texas at Oklahoma State: OSU Offense Preview

Peter Bean — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:10:55 -0000

Oklahoma State tight end Wilson Youman acknowledges that Brandon Pettigrew is missed, but not by as much as you think.

Hopefully you've been reading TES's invaluable State of Oklahoma series -- outstanding stuff for two straight months. But now, with just 48 hours to kickoff, and having just spent the past 6 hours watching OSU game film, I've got my own set of thoughts on this Oklahoma State football team. First up, the offense...

OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK: Zac Robinson is both a bit better of a passer, and less capable a runner, than he's generally given credit for. After Robinson took a beating down the stretch last season, Mike Gundy has reduced his quarterback's usage in the running game. Which is not to say OSU doesn't put Robinson's solid mobility to use: The Pokes still run the zone read a dozen or so times a game and they love to roll Robinson on bootlegs to his right, where he can be a threat to run or pass (he throws very well moving that direction). Robinson has developed into an excellent quick-strike passer on short routes, throwing quickly and accurately from a high release; he's not afraid to throw downfield and has a strong enough arm to deliver some great strikes, but the accuracy wanes. Especially with Dez Bryant out, I'm guessing Muschamp will aggressively challenge Robinson's short and intermediate passing game with Earl Thomas, hanging Gideon back to handle OSU's deep challenges. I'm sure Gideon is being drilled over and over about not biting on play action, which Mike Gundy uses frequently, and well.

RUNNING BACKS: While the latest report is that if Kendall Hunter (ankle injury) plays at all he'll be limited to 8-10 touches, it won't be of too big a concern to OSU -- like Texas, the Cowboys feature several good-not-great tailbacks who are roughly equally capable of succeeding in their rush scheme. Assuming Hunter is out, senior Keith Toston will be the starter; while at 6-0, 214 he's a bigger and stronger rusher than Hunter, it's at this point unclear whether, against this Texas defense, there's any advantage in one style over the other. Watching Toston over his past three games, I'm not convinced he's not the better tailback for them, anyway -- he hits holes with plenty of speed and strength and Hunter's not so elusive that he's clearly superior. In any case, OSU's rushing success will come down to the war in the trenches. Spelling Toston will be Beau Johnson, a bowling ball, power back who rumbles downhill like Cody Johnson, with better speed and less strength. Coming out of the backfield, Toston's an improving receiver who Robinson is good at finding both on designed plays and check-downs; Muck and Robinson will need to be on their toes as coverage LBs on Saturday.

TIGHT ENDS: For all the time we've spent thanking the football gods that Brandon Pettigrew is gone, I was stunned to see in film that OSU is in such good shape with their tight ends. The guy that really impresses me is sophomore Wilson Youman, an enormous, strong, technically sound blocker with surprising speed and improving pass catching abilities. Count on OSU taking multiple shots up the seam with him like Colorado did -- again, Gideon's awareness will be key. As much recent frustration as we've had with our own offense, watching OSU it's easy to see how much better we might be with a tight end or two who can block for the run game and release out for a pass. Though the Cowboys operate out of the 11-personnel more often than not, they use three tight ends throughout the game and will go to a two tight end set a dozen snaps each contest; when they do, they run the zone read to the short side around 50% of the time. When fielding two TEs, OSU will usually bring out Youman and either Justin Horton (who possesses nice quickness but struggles in blocking) or, increasingly, Cooper Bassett, a big-bodied freshman who blocks pretty well and is easy to lose track of in the passing game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Obviously, the big absence is Dez Bryant, but the Pokes have steadily resuscitated the passing attack in the weeks since his suspension. With 19 catches over the past two weeks, sophomore Hubert Anyiam is Robinson's favorite new target, but he's a very different receiver than Bryant. Anyiam isn't a big guy, for one thing, and he can be pushed around at the point of attack. He runs good quick routes, though, and while his vertical speed is merely good, his lateral movement is excellent; he'll make guys miss. If fellow sophomore Keith Cooper were at Texas Tech, he'd finish the season with 70 catches and 800 yards -- he's not particularly fast and rarely stretches the field, but he's a zone buster specialist, runs great routes, has terrific hands, and will catch a ball as he's taking a lick. (Yes, he's white.) When OSU goes four-wide, they'll mix between split aces and trips to the left, and Texas will need to keep an eye on the freshman Tracey Moore, who's OSU's version of Dan Buckner -- big kid with solid speed, great hands, and a dangerous ability to get open 15 yards downfield.

OFFENSIVE LINE: The Pokes are strong at center and at each tackle, but have question marks at each guard position. Right guard Anthony Morgan plays far too vertically and can be muscled around; left guard Noah Franklin has good feet but lacks good drive strength. Right tackle Brady Bond is solid, but the real prize on the line is the left tackle Russell Okung -- you won't see many guys that big who can move that well. And oh does OSU like to move him -- I'm not sure I've ever seen a team shoot and pull their left tackle as often as does Mike Gundy with Okung. In their base 11-personnel, OSU loves to run to the right through the B gap, sealing the edge with Youman on the outside while pulling Okung over to the middle to crush a linebacker or stunting end.

BOTTOM LINE: I underrated this Cowboys offense prior to watching the film; they do miss Pettigrew, but this new kid Youman is a beast, the offensive line is excellent in pass protection / solid in run blocking, and the loss of Bryant -- while clearly a loss -- has been something of a blessing in disguise, forcing them to diversify their attack. Gundy and Robinson are at their best when the Cowboys are an offense you have to respect both on the ground and through the air; with each passing week in the post-Bryant era, that's becoming more a concern. They're running the ball well enough, using their tight ends in the passing game more, and finding a solid, if unspectacular, group of receivers with whom they can move the chains.

The counterpunch to that, of course, is to try to make OSU one-dimensional, and I expect that's what we'll see Muschamp open with in the first half. I expect Texas to play to the run and short passing games to test Zac Robinson and Mike Gundy on their willingness/ability to keep us honest by going deep. If they won't, or can't, the Cowboys are containable. If they hit a big play or two early, the chess game will be on.

Tomorrow: previewing the OSU defense.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

Browse more photos »

One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

---

Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

---

Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

Recruits Need Not Be Concerned with the Spread Much Longer

Year2 — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:30:14 -0000

Courtesy of Chris Low:

"The only time I really see [Florida] lose kids is because kids want to play in a pro-style offense," Kiffin said. "It’s such a great place to play, and they do such a good job of coaching. But you see some kids that don’t want to play in that system because a lot of times it hurts them going to the next level for their draft status."

If there's one thing we've learned about Lane Kiffin, it's that he's all about recruiting. It's unlikely that recruits are getting this idea all on their own, and hey, who better to introduce it than a guy who runs a pro-style offense, right?

It may still have some merits, but it's not going to stay around for long. Why?

New England runs a spread offense, and the guy who catches more passes than anyone in it (and became a Pro Bowler) is Wes Welker. He played in Texas Tech's spread offense.
Michael Crabtree, for whatever his mania in relation with holding out, was a top ten draft pick from that same Texas Tech spread offense.
Three spread offense receivers (Crabtree, Missouri's Jeremy Maclin, and Florida's Percy Harvin) were taken in the first round of last year's draft. The only tight end taken in the first round (Oklahoma State's Brandon Pettigrew) came from a spread offense.
Both Harvin and Louis Murphy, from Florida's very spread offense, started on opening day for their teams and both caught touchdown passes.
Sam Bradford was predicted to be a top ten pick had he come out last year and is the top quarterback prospect for 2010. He plays in a spread offense in Oklahoma.
The top two offensive lineman prospects for 2010 according to ESPN (Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and Oklahoma's Trent Williams) block in spread offenses.
Jonathan Dwyer is one of the top running back prospects, and he plays in the spread version of the wishbone.
Despite what Mel Kiper would have you believe, Tim Tebow is probably going to be a high draft pick. Bill Parcells thinks he'll go top ten, Jon Gruden thinks he could "revolutionize the game," and Mike Tomlin thinks highly enough of him to compliment his quarterback by making a comparison:

It's true that spread offenses do some things differently than pro-style offenses do. You would expect that to be the case since they are two different kinds of offenses. However, all that means is that NFL coaches will have to do some, you know, coaching.

Spread offense principals are gradually infiltrating NFL offenses anyway. Both Super Bowl participants last year operated from spread sets more often than not, and the highest scoring NFL offense ever (the '07 Patriots) ran a spread offense. The Kansas City Chiefs switched to a spread offense in the middle of last year with a second year quarterback from Coastal Carolina and doubled their points per game.

I suppose if Kiffin wants to perpetuate, or at the very least, exploit the perception that spread offense will hurt draft position, it will work for now. He'd be a fool not to, but It won't work for much longer.

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Oklahoma St. Cowboys

Seth C — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:12 -0000

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers // Game 8: Texas A&M Aggies // Game 9: Kansas Jayhawks // Game 10: Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It seems that the preseason question of the year is if Oklahoma State is the 2008 version of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. I've mentioned before that I'm not completely sold on Oklahoma St., despite the fact that I do beleive they may be the most offensively well-balanced team in the Big 12.

Join me after the jump for a closer look at Oklahoma St.

General Information

Opponent	Oklahoma State University
Nickname	Cowboys
Location	Stillwater, OK
Enrollment	23,307
Conference	Big 12
Head Coach	Mike Gundy
2008 Record	9-3 (5-3)
Starters Returning/Lost	14/8
Blogs	None
Links	2009 Media Guide 2009 Game Day Guide

Statistics


Statistic	Oklahoma State	Texas Tech
Pass Offense	242.23 (38)	413.15 (1)
Rush Offense	245.46 (8)	117.84 (94)
Total Offense	487.69 (6)	531.00 (4)
Scoring Offense	40.77 (9)	43.77 (3)
Pass Efficiency	164.71 (5)	158.76 (9)
Sacks Allowed	1.23 (17)	1.00 (4)
Pass Defense	267.69 (109)	242.23 (94)
Rush Defense	137.85 (52)	140.38 (61)
Total Defense	405.54 (93)	382.62 (79)
Scoring Defense	28.08 (76)	27.85 (74)
Pass Efficiency Defense	130.81 (74)	130.56 (72)
Sacks	1.15 (107)	2.62 (18)
Tackles For Loss	5.15 (87)	4.85 (95)
Turnover Margin	0.38 (35)	0.62 (22)

Top Returners

Category	Player
Rushing	Kendall Hunter (241 / 1,555 yds / 16 TD)
Passing	Zac Robinson (204-314 / 3,064 yds / 25 TD / 10 Int)
Receiving	Dez Bryant (87 rec. / 1,480 yds / 19 TD)
Tackles	Andre Sexton (100)
Sacks	Jeremiah Price (3.0)
Interceptions	Perrish Cox (2)

A Few Things

What Worries Me: Here's the thing. Oklahoma St. should be improved this year and I can understand how folks think that OSU is going to be this year's version of Texas Tech. I can't base any of my thoughts on OSU on something rational and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cowboys prove me wrong, but I still can't get it out of my head that OSU just didn't show up against Texas Tech, a team that many thought up until that time, were contemporaries. I can understand the losses to Oklahoma and Oregon, but not even showing up bothers me. Maybe I should just let it go, but it's stuck with me through the offseason.
Balanced and Explosive Offense: We talked in the Kansas prospectus about the Jayhawk trio and there's no doubt in my mind that Oklahoma State's trio is superior. Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant and the workhorse of the offense, Kendall Hunter, are big-time players. I don't know if they'll surpass last year's offensive numbers, but they'll match them. The one thing that worries me is that all-world tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, has moved onto the NFL, which means that Robinson's second options is no longer available. In fact, Bryant had 87 catches last year, which was more Oklahoma State's three other pass catchers, Pettigrew (42), Damiam Davis (19) and Kendall Hunter (22). Pettigrew's possible replacements, Jamal Moseley and Wilson Youman, had a combined 6 catches last year.
Play Making Defense Wanted: There's really not a Big 12 defense that played incredibly well last year, however, the Cowboys' defense was 93rd in the nation in total defense and was 109th in pass defense (more on that below). On top of that, OSU had serious trouble getting to any quarterback and was 107th in the nation at sacking the QB last year. The problem is that last year's unit had very little production and that also means there's very little production returning. I know that Bill Young tends to work miracles with defenses and to be honest, I think OSU has recruited very well over the years, but I'm not convinced that changing the defensive coordinator means that Oklahoma St. deserves to be a top 10 team, especially when the defense hasn't proven that it deserves this spot.
Replacing Three-Fourths of a Secondary: Much like Texas Tech, OSU must replace both safeties and a cornerback (why is no one else talking about that?). Projected FS Lucien Antoine had 1 tackle last year and projected SS Victor Johnson had 19. Safety is always a big position to fill and considering OSU was less than stellar last year defending the pass, look for this to be an issue for Oklahoma St. this year.
Spaced Out Schedule: The one thing that I like about Oklahoma State is that the Cowboys really don't have an incredibly tough stretch and they have eight games at home. Opening against Georgia and Houston at home should be relatively easy. the next big game comes against Texas, again, at home, with a week of Iowa State between the Horns and Texas Tech. Then another week against an inferior opponent in Colorado, and then Oklahoma. In other words, there's not this tough three game stretch like so many teams faced last year and there's no doubt that the schedule favors Oklahoma St.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Oklahoma St. Cowboys?

1

15 votes

2

12 votes

3

42 votes

4

128 votes

5

91 votes

288 votes | Poll has closed

Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Buck Bravo — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:00:11 -0000

Rivals, Scout, and ESPN all provide ranking systems for recruits headed to Division 1 football programs. Often, ratings of individual players will vary greatly from one service to another. In an attempt to determine which service most accurately projects the future performance of players, let's take a look at the ratings that were given to the 2009 NFL first round draft picks back when they were being recruited for college football:

PICK

NAME

COLLEGE

TEAM

RIVALS

STARS

SCOUT

STARS

ESPN

RATING

Matthew Stafford

Georgia

Jason Smith

Baylor

Tyson Jackson

LSU

Aaron Curry

OLB

Wake Forest

Mark Sanchez

USC

Andre Smith

Alabama

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Maryland

Virginia

Boston College

Texas Tech

Penn State

Georgia

Texas

Ohio State

OLB

USC

Northern Illinois

Kansas State

Tennessee

Missouri

Oklahoma State

California

Florida

Ole Miss

Ole Miss

Illinois

OLB

USC

Donald Brown

Connecticut

Louisville

North Carolina

Rutgers

Ohio State

Missouri

ESPN did not start ranking recruits until 2006, so players from before that time have no ranking. Despite this limitation, let's look at the trend lines for the different services:

While Scout may have had the most 5 star rankings for recruits who ultimately became first round NFL draft choices, Rivals had the best trendline for accurately ranking future NFL talent. A more comprehensive analysis looking at later rounds and previous years would best determine which service best analyzes talent. If I were retired or writing for TDG full time, I'd be eager to put such a report together for later this week. For now, the first round of the 2009 NFL draft will have to suffice.

Most Underrated Big 12 Assistant Coach

Beergut — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 10:59:11 -0000

In my opinion, the most underrated assistant coach in the Big 12 is Oklahoma State co-offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Joe Wickline. Wickline came to Oklahoma State from Florida with Lee Fedora when Mike Gundy replaced Les Miles as the Oklahoma St. head coach. Since his arrival in 2005, Oklahoma State's worst finish in conference in rushing has been fifth, and that was in 2005, his first season. In 2006 they finished #1 in the conference in rushing offense, averaging 208 yds per game. That was good enough to rank 7th nationally in rushing offense, and 16th nationally in total offense (409.8 yds per game, #4 in Big 12 in total offense). In 2007, Oklahoma State was again #1 in the Big 12 in rushing offense (243.2 yds per game) and ranked #8 nationally. The Cowboys finished the season ranked #7 nationally in total offense (486.3 yds per game), and this was despite switching starting QBs. After the 2007 season, offensive coordinator Lee Fedora became the head coach at Southern Mississippi, and Wickline was promoted to co-offensive coordinator-running game. In 2008, Oklahoma State again led the Big 12 in rushing, averaging 245.5 yds per game, the only team in the conference to average over 200 yds per game rushing. State also finished ranked #8 in the nation in rushing offense and #3 in the conference in total offense (487.7 yds per game). Despite changing offensive coordinators, Oklahoma State improved on their numbers from the previous year.

Wickline also excels at developing players. Wickline moved Charlie Johnson from TE to OT when he arrived at OSU; Johnson became the first Oklahoma State lineman drafted in 21 YEARS when he was drafted in the 6th round by the Colts in 2006. After the 2006 season, New England drafted unanimous All-Big 12 OT Corey Hilliard in the 7th round. In 2008, TE Brandon Pettigrew blossomed into a first round draft pick; he was taken with the 20th pick of the first round by the Detroit Lions. Going into the 2009 season, LT Russell Okung is projected as a 1st round draft pick. Okung has started on OSU's offensive line since his freshman season in 2006. If Okung is drafted, this means OSU will have gone from having no offensive linemen drafted in 21 years to having four drafted in the five years Wickline has been in Stillwater. That is pretty impressive any way you look at it.

Wickline has been able to build stellar offensive lines despite having to recruit against Oklahoma for in-state talent. He has succeeded by going outside Oklahoma to find linemen (Okung is from Fort Bend, TX, Pettigrew is from Tyler, TX, Hilliard is from New Orleans, LA), and by putting them in a scheme that is simple but effective (OSU's zone scheme only requires offensive linemen to recognize three players to find their blocking assignment).

Wickline's success at Oklahoma State has been obvious, but he has been overshadowed by James Patton at Oklahoma, Mac McWhorter at texas, and others. Since the media doesn't give Wickline the credit he deserves, he is my pick for the most underrated assistant coach in the Big 12 Conference.

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 14:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Unlike Bo Pelini, Mike Gundy faces Year Five expectations...in year five.

Browse more photos »

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

Today it's time to discuss the first game of the schedule that most Missouri fans agree will be a loss--the October 17 trip to Stillwater. But fear not, Tiger fans! Mizzou has OSU right where they want them: in Stillwater. Quite simply, MU-OSU games never, ever, ever turn out as they're supposed to. The road team in this series has won five of the last six. MU has won in Stillwater three straight times--1997, 2001, 2005--and OSU has won in Columbia the last two--2004, 2008. Strange, silly things happen in this series (including overtime--one in 1996, two in 1997, three in 2001), which in this case is good news for Missouri, but when "strange things happen" is your #1 reason for optimism, you know this isn't a game you're expected to win.

So why is everybody piling on the 'Pokes as this year's Texas Tech, the team expected to possibly break up the OU/Texas stranglehold on the South? Explosiveness on offense and experience on defense. Today, we look at the offensive side of the equation; but first, we start with a look back at 2008.

2008

Record: 9-4 (5-3 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 236.7 (14th in the country, 4th in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 530-365 (+165)
Conference Scoring Margin: 292-236 (+56)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #10 Missouri, #40 Baylor, #42 Troy, #51 Houston, #82 Colorado, #98 Texas A&M, #104 Iowa State, #118 Washington State, 1-AA SMS
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #11 Oregon, #15 Texas Tech

Say this much for Oklahoma State: they're the exception to the "Bowl performances are overblown regarding the next season's expectations" rule. They really didn't perform well after November 1, but expectations for them in 2009 have gone through the roof regardless. And for the most part, it's easy to see why. Their top skill position talent returns intact--they don't really have any pass catchers after Dez Bryant, but it's not completely clear that they need any; their offensive line is extremely experienced, and their defense is experienced if not amazing. The pieces are in place, and as I was saying this time last year about Texas Tech, if they're ever going to break through into that top tier, now's the time.

When all was said and done in 2008, OSU had gone 8-0 against teams ranked below 15th in the country, and 1-3 against teams above. So it makes sense, really, that they would end up the year 14th. Their W/L performance was quite steady and consistent, even if their defensive performance wasn't. But we'll get into "pre-November 1 vs post-November 1" defensive issues tomorrow. The 2008 season, in the end, represented a lovely step forward for the OSU program, their first 9-win season since 2003 and only their second since 1988. And unlike those seasons, and majority of the talent from that 9-win squad returns.

Coaching

Head Coach: Mike Gundy
Record at Oklahoma State: 27-23 (conference: 13-20)
Career Pythagorean Record: 27.79 wins (-0.2/year)

Let's get all the jokes out of the way now. Mike Gundy is a man, he's 41, etc. He's also captained an OSU team that has jumped from 4-8 to 7-6 (twice) to 9-4 in his four seasons, and even though the growth of OSU's overall athletic facilities has hit a bump in the road recently, there is still a lot to like about the direction of the athletic program as a whole and the football program specifically. They'll probably take a step backwards in 2010 after losing Dez Bryant (probably), Zac Robinson, Russell Okung, most of their LBs and DB, etc., but the trajectory is good, and Gundy has to be considered one of the reasons why that is the case (after T. Boone Pickens, anyway).

Looking at Pythagorean projections, OSU has won pretty much exactly the amount of games their points and point differential would project. Blowouts skew the Pythagorean numbers, and while I haven't figured out how to account for that yet, they haven't skewed Gundy's numbers too much.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 123.5 (#13)
Success Rate+: 114.3 (#18)
PPP+: 135.5 (#8)

Standard Downs S&P+: 118.5 (#14)
Passing Downs S&P+: 136.9 (#10)

Redzone S&P+: 113.9 (#28)

Q1 S&P+: 130.0 (#16)
Q2 S&P+: 114.9 (#28)
Q3 S&P+: 159.2 (#1)
Q4 S&P+: 95.2 (#80)

1st Down S&P+: 129.9 (#7)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.3 (#22)
3rd Down S&P+: 111.0 (#37)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 123.2 (#13)
Rushing SR+: 115.5 (#20)
Rushing PPP+: 135.6 (#12)

Standard Downs: 115.9 (#25)
Passing Downs: 148.3 (#6)

Redzone: 112.7 (#38)

Line Yards+: 110.2 (#30)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 129.4 (#11)
Passing SR+: 114.1 (#19)
Passing PPP+: 147.2 (#7)

Standard Downs: 127.4 (#9)
Passing Downs: 140.1 (#11)

Redzone: 116.2 (#30)

Adj. Sack Rate: 4.3% (#27)

Of all the categories above, in only one did the Cowboys rank outside of the Top 40 (Q4 S&P+), and only twice were they outside the Top 30 (Q4 S&P+, 3rd Down S&P+). They were pretty consistently in the 80th percentile (at least) in most offensive categories.
The major contrast that jumps out here has to be their Q3/Q4 performance. No real explanation for that. Teams who win a lot of blowouts tend to see their Q4 numbers suffer simply because the starters are no longer on the field--Missouri was similar in that regard--and sure enough, OSU saw their fair share of blowouts (39-13 over Wazzu, 57-13 over SMS, 55-24 over Troy, 56-28 over ATM, 34-6 over Baylor). However, they also faced plenty of tight games and didn't fare too well late. In the last ten minutes of their closer games--Missouri, Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon--they scored only 13 points combined. Whether that was poor execution or predictable play-calling (from what I saw of the MU, OU, and UO games, it was a little of both), that clearly needs to improve considerably if they are to finish 2009 in the Top 10.
I'm not a huge fan of the "balance" given love in this ESPN Insider article, simply because there is too much variety in play calls to accurately break things down into "runs" and "passes." For instance, Mizzou uses a lot of "long handoff" types of passes that are simply intended to stretch the field like a wide run play would, but it's categorized as a pass. Simply balancing rushing yardage and passing yardage doesn't say you were equally adept at both.

That said, finishing 13th in Rushing S&P+ and 11th in Passing S&P+ is pretty damn impressive. Granted, six other teams managed Top 15 in both categories--Florida (1st in Rushing S&P+, 3rd in Passing), Penn State (2nd, 6th), Texas Tech (4th, 15th), Oklahoma (6th, 1st), USC (7th, 2nd), and Stanford (10th, 13th)--but still. Impressive.

Quarterback

Zac Robinson: underrated? Correctly rated? Deemed "underrated" so long that he's now overrated? Your call. Dude's good, though.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Zac Robinson (6'3, 218, Sr.)
Alex Cate (6'1, 200, Jr.)
Brandon Weeden (6'4, 215, So.)

In a conference full of superstars at his position, Zac Robinson has managed to stay more-or-less under the radar. Most of that, I'm sure, has to do with the fact that, even in leading his 'Pokes to nine wins last year, OSU was only fourth in the South Division, below teams quarterbacked by Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Graham Harrell. But in justifying their leaping the Cowboys into their preseason Top 10 lists, many writers have cited Robinson as a main reason. He is a unique and uniquely effective quarterback, matching fast legs with fast decision-making.

Even though he is only a decent runner and not a great one (he was 27th among QBs for Rushing POE), he is a persistent one, averaging 12.4 rushes per game in conference play and the Holiday Bowl. And while he isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.

Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Running Backs

Needless to say, Missouri fans know how good Kendall Hunter can be.

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#1 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Kendall Hunter (5'8, 190, Jr.)
Keith Toston (6'0, 205, Sr.)
Beau Johnson (5'10, 210, Sr.)

Heading into last year's OSU-Mizzou game, I didn't know just how impressive Kendall Hunter really was. After all, his numbers were no more impressive than those that Dantrell Savage had managed the year before, and besides...how impressed was I supposed to be by his to-date 2008 performance? 23 carries for 107 yards against a pathetic Wazzu defense? Eleven for 132 against SMS? Granted, 22 for 210 against Houston was damn strong no matter how iffy Houston's defense was, and there was nothing wrong with his 24-for-169 against Troy. But still...Mizzou's rushing defense was by far the best OSU had faced at that point in the season.

That he put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

In the end, Hunter posted a +34.0 POE (Points Over Expected) mark, good for 5th in the country (behind Cal's Jahvid Best, Iowa's Shonn Greene, Oregon's LeGarrette Blount, and Georgia Tech's Jonathan Dwyer) and first in the prolific Big 12.

Behind Hunter resides the most proven backup in the conference (outside of Norman, anyway). One-time Mizzou recruiting target Keith Toston has recovered from knee problems to give the 'Pokes a steady #2 option. Toston put up 686 yards in 2008 (6.7 per carry), and his +16.5 POE was good for 27th in the country, ahead of Roy Helu Jr. and Baron Batch, among others. There is little wonder why OSU's RBs ranked 1st in the conference, edging out OU's in the process.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

The Man.

2008 Unit Ranking: #9 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Justin Blackmon (6'1, 195, RSFr.)
DeMarcus Conner (6'1, 206, Sr.)
Hubert Anyiam (6'1, 198, So.)
Isaiah Anderson (5'10, 175, RSFr.)
Adrian Richards (6'4, 195, RSFr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Wilson Youman (6'5, 252, So.)
Jamal Mosley (6'4, 243, So.)
Cooper Bassett (6'5, 250, RSFr.)

Let's be honest. If you can claim that you recognize any of the names above that aren't "Dez Bryant", you're either a) an OSU fan (and a pretty big one at that), or b) lying. The biggest question mark for the 'Poke offense in 2009 is, will any reliable second threat emerge in the passing game? They don't have to be All-Conference caliber--they just have to be able to make teams pay for double- (or triple-) teaming Dez Bryant. Signs point to...who the hell knows? Justin Blackmon impressed many during spring football, but...well, every year, at every school in the country, somebody impresses during spring football and doesn't make a sound in the fall. He could be amazing, but I'll start believing when he does it in real games (same with Mizzou's Aldon Smith, really). What we know for sure is, the non-Bryant names on that list combined for 12 catches, 141 yards, and 0 TDs in 2008. Damian Davis had "potential" written all over him, and he was a dagger against Missouri, but he went and got himself kicked off the team this spring.

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Offensive Line

Okung leads a super-experienced line.

2008 Unit Ranking: #12 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
T Russell Okung (6'6, 305, Sr.)
C Andrew Lewis (6'5, 290, Sr.)
T Brady Bond (6'7, 295, Sr.)
G Anthony Morgan (6'5, 320, Jr.)
G Noah Franklin (6'5, 310, Sr.)
T Andrew Mitchell (6'5, 308, Sr.)
G Jonathan Rush (6'5, 309, So.)
G Ahmad Jones (6'2, 309, So.)
C Grant Garner (6'4, 286, So.)
T Patrick Hoog (6'4, 298, RSFr.)

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

Summary

Zac Robinson is a senior. Dez Bryant is almost certain to be projected as a high NFL draft pick next April, and is therefore not likely to return for another season. Keith Toston is a senior, while the only thing that might bring ~~Lindsey~~ (D'OH!) Kendall Hunter back for a senior year is the fact that he's not very big and therefore might not be projected as tremendously draftable. Five of probably the team's six best offensive linemen are seniors.

In other words, the time is now. Whereas most of the Big 12's bottom ten teams will likely improve between 2009 and 2010, OSU will not. If they are to make serious national noise anytime soon, it is going to be in 2009. But hey, no pressure.

While they are not tremendously deep, few teams possess such great individual talent in each unit as OSU does--they have potential All-Americans at QB, RB, WR, and on the OL. For this offense to score the points necessary to challenge the Oklahoma's and Texas's of the world, they must improve on third downs, and they MUST improve in the fourth quarters of close games. Whether that means better conditioning, less nerves, or simply more unpredictability (here's where a great #2 receiving option would come in handy), it has to happen. You know Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy will be calm, confident, and looking to make plays in the fourth quarter. Will Zac Robinson? Will he have the right plays to run? That could make the difference between a South title run and another solid-but-slightly-disappointing 9-win season.

Preseason Mags Are Out

miketag — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 22:52:04 -0000

This is one of my favorite times of the year. When the preseason football mags hit the newstand, it is a signal that football is near. More importantly, it gives us something to discuss besides rehashing our performance during the spring. I picked up a copy of the Athlon and Lindy's national editions yesterday and I will be referencing them in the coming weeks. For now, let us take a look at Athlon's preseason top ten (with my comments interspersed):

1. Florida

Everyone feels that with 20 starters returning including Tim Tebow, that the Gators should repeat. I personally thought OU was the better team on the field last year but turnovers did them in. UF does have a manageable schedule, but this is the SEC we are talking about. When I saw Chris Rainey play St. Thomas Aquinas as a junior in HS, I predicted that whichever Florida college landed him would win the national title. Last season proved me clairvoyant. If the Gators want another national title, Rainey is going to have to step up and become the player I thought he could be five years ago.

2. OU

The general thought is that OU will be down from last year because they need to replace 4 OL and their starting WRs. I have yet to see an OU team under Stoops without a servicable OL. I expect him to be able to build a good unit around Trent Williams. Ryan Broyles was the most explosive WR OU had last year and he returns. Keep him away from gas stations and the Sooners should be alright. If Demarco Murray can make it through an entire season healthy, OU should make a run for it all. Most forget that Murray missed the past two BCS games that were losses for the Okies. The front 7 should be as good as at any time under Stoops.

3. tu

The sips are still whining about how they should have been in the MNC game. Get over it! Your team overachieved bigtime last year, and has ridden that finish to a top 5 ranking this year. Quan Cosby made TD catches while laying on his back in the endzone last year. I think that is going to be missed a little. tu won last year because of their chemistry and their senior leadership. I think they will miss those departed senior leaders this season. The lack of a running game and porous secondary is concerning. Their DL does not impress on paper but my feeling is that Coach Boom MFer will get them to play at a high level. tu alwas finds a way to win 10 games so I expect them to win 10 this year. I expect them to be a top 10 team but not a top 5 team. On the other hand, Malcolm Williams could finally realize he is a freak of nature and the sips rule the land.

4. USC

Aaron Corp is going to start at QB for the Trojans this fall. I do not know who he is either. I believe he is the reason that Pete Carroll was so upset that Mark Sanchez left early for the NFL. The elephant in the room, is that USC has not had an elite WR on the field in the past two years. They have to play Cal, Oregon, and Ohio State on the road. I expect Ohio State to take SC in Columbus, and the Trojans to split with Cal and Oregon. I would not be surprised to see USC go 9-3 this year in the regular season. I just do not see the gamebreakers. This could be the worst SC team we have see since Carroll arrived.

5. The Ohio State University

This is my pick for the preseason #1 team. I will tell you why in two words: Terrelle Pryor. Jim Tressel always manages to assemble an elite defense. As Pryor continues to grow as a QB, Tressel will give him more and more leeway in the offense and open it up. Similar to what he did with Troy Smith. Pryor is a better passer than Vince Young was at the same stage in their careers, and he does not have to face a Big 12 schedule. Just as Miami feasted on the Big East in tuneups for their national title runs, Ohio State will do the same on a suspect Big 10 this year. Pryor may make a run at being the 3rd sophomore hypesman winner in a row. I think the Buckeyes beat USC and finally win a BCS game this year.

6. Alabama

I thought Nick Saban would have Bama in the top 10 last year. I did not expect him to run the table in the regular season. The bad news for the rest of the SEC is that Greg McElroy is a better QB than John Parker Wilson. Saban's recruiting classes have restocked the Tide with talent for years to come. Terrence Cody is the best DT in the SEC. If he can keep his weight under control, he should be an elite NG in the NFL for some lucky 3-4 defense for years to come. Julio Jones will put up a 1000 yard season and increase his TD totals from last year. Bama and UF should play for a shot at the BCS game in Atlanta.

7. Penn State

I am a little worried about the fighting Joepa's this year. I know Sea Lee is back and that should be a boost for their defense. I know the Big 10 is soft. Paterno tends to do well when he has a good QB under center (amazing how that goes hand in hand). Darryl Clark returns, but I just do not see greatness from this team. I think the Nittany Lions will be a top 15 team, but not top 10. They lost a great trio of WRs to the NFL, and I just do not see any replacements that will keep defenses off of Evan Royster.

8. Virginia Tech

I have seen some predicting the Hokies to win the ACC by default. They won it last year and no one else jumps out at the media in the ACC. While I love Beamerball as much as anyone, I think the Hokies are not a top 10 team. I think UNC is the best team in the ACC. Tyrod Taylor is a nice player and VTech will have their usual tough running game led by Darren Evans. I just see too many losses from a schedule that includes Bama, Miami, UNC, and Georgia Tech. The September 19 game against Nebraska should tell us a lot about where both of these programs are at. Have to give Kudos to Beamer for playing a tough non-conference schedule.

9. Oklahoma State

You know Boone Pickens was smiling from ear to ear when he picked up the preseason mags this year. His team is picked by many to compete for the Big 12 South and conference title. OSU has the most dominating WR in the league in Dez Bryant. They have a very good college QB in Zac Robinson. They have a great RB in Kendall Hunter. Unfortunately, they had all of that last year and still could not beat OU or tu. I do think this is the year they take down the sips in Stillwater. I think OU in Norman will be too tough. I have to wonder about an offense that last year threw exclusively to Bryant and Brandon Pettigrew in big games. How much will the loss of Pettigrew affect it? Bill Young returns to Stillwater to try to make some kind of semblence of a defense. After watching him make the "ahem" talent in Lawrence look great for the past few years, I have no doubt he will be successful in Stillwater. I see Okie State as a 9-4 or 10-3 type team. The opening game against UGA will tell us all we need to know.

10. Ole Miss

Jevan Snead is a better NFL prospect than Colt McCoy. Dexter McCluster is the best college football player in the nation under 180 pounds. I am too used to seeing Houston Nutt teams be inconsistent to expect another miracle run like last year. Losing Michael Oher and Peria Jerry on the lines will hurt. Ole Miss should be a 7-8 win bowl team, but I do no expect them to end the season in the top 10. Nutt taught the team to have confidence and play with effort last year. We will see how they respond to success this season.

Spring Recap: Defensive Backs

irish1611 — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:40:03 -0000

Anthony Perkins during football practice at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado April 13, 2009. CAMERA/Mark Leffingwell

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Pre-Spring Thoughts:

Coming into the 2008 season, the cornerback position was highlighted as a weak spot on the Buffs defense while the defensive line was supposed to be the strength. I think most CU fans would say they were more impressed with the cornerback play in '08 than they were with the defensive line. Given that the Buffs lost two starters from the 2007 team in Terrence Wheatley (NFL) and Ben Burney (5'11" 190 Sr.) (injury), that 2008 assumption was not a bad one to make. But the cornerbacks overachieved last season. CB Chapelle Brown (5'7" 170 Sr.) was arguably the story of the year in the secondary, becoming a consistent playmaker and tackler. CB Jalil Brown (6'1" 205 Jr.), CB Anthony Wright (6'0" 190 So.) and CB Jimmy Smith (6'3" 200 Jr.) all saw action in 2008 and for the most part, performed well. At safety, the 2008 team was led by seniors Daniel Dykes and Ryan Walters, who are now both gone and graduated. Not so lucky for Walters and Dykes but for the future of the Buffs program, both players had health issues during the year allowing true freshman, Patrick Mahnke (6'1" 205 So.), and red-shirt freshman, Anthony Perkins (5'10" 200 So.), to get invaluable time both as reserves and a starters.

In one of the more surprising moves of the offseason, secondary coach Greg Brown received some good news. Ray Polk, a four star running back in 2008 asked to be converted to a safety. Although Polk needed offseason surgery and still has to learn the position, Buff fans should expect to see good things from him when he gets healthy and acclimated. The remaining but useful players at safety include S Tyler Sandersfield (6'1" 205 So.), who made some nice plays last year on special teams as well as S Vince Ewing (6'0" 200 RFr.) and Bret Smith (5'11" 190 Jr.).

Although the loss of three starting defensive backs from 2008 (CB Gardner McKay, S Dykes and S Walters) could cause a bit of concern on most teams, coming into spring, I had the expectation that this year's unit would be better at all positions. The cornerback spot will definitely be improved with the emergence of Jimmy Smith and the return of Ben Burney. Smith showed well at the end of the last season. Known as the most athletic and "pro ready" player on the roster, the game clicked for Smith in 2008 as a sophomore and he was expected to gain a stranglehold on one of the starting cornerback position this spring. With 2007 starter Ben Burney, 2008 starter Cha'pelle Brown and 2008 nickel back Jalil Brown all returning, their was plenty of reasons to be optimistic for 2009.

click after the jump to read the rest of the cornerback recap...

Post Spring Thoughts:

Now that spring practice has come and gone, I am still brimming with optimism. The biggest area of concern, if applicable, was at the safety position. Although Mahnke and Perkins played last year, being a full time starter is a different story. That being said, they looked solid during my viewing (four practices and two scrimmages). The good thing for these two sophomores are the players surrounding them. The Buffs have great depth & talent at cornerback and a strong linebacker corp. They can be assignment oriented (no man beats you deep) but also feel loose enough to be able to press the line of scrimmage, something we saw Ron Collins and the Buffs defensive staff use a lot this spring. Many times, the defense would be in a 3 - 3 - 5, bringing in a nickel cornerback or safety.

The spring practices further proved that cornerback should be a strong point this season. Jimmy Smith has first round talent and Ben Burney returned to the lineup, bringing another physical corner to the defense. The first day of practice, the Buffs ran one on ones to see who would run sprints (very much a jog) at the end of practice. The offense tried to run a double move on Jimmy Smith. No luck, picked off and a defensive celebration ensued. I expect that from Smith all season. Smith is also special because he can support the run. His size also allows him to handle bigger receivers and his quickness allows him to cover the speedsters. He is the complete package that should be a treat to watch this year. I am already circling the Kansas and Oklahoma State games to see Smith go up against Dezmon Briscoe and Dez Bryant.

Cha'pelle Brown got a stomach virus that didn't allow him to participate as much as he would have liked this spring but he will surely be in a battle with Jalil Brown, Burney and Anthony Wright for the other starting job as well as the nickel spot. The Buffs also moved 2008 grey shirt, Paul Vigo, to cornerback, adding another player into the fold along with Arthur Jaffee and Jonathan Hawkins.

Injuries:

OUT FOR SPRING - S Ray Polk (shoulder surgery)
WAS LIMITED - CB Cha'pelle Brown (stomach illness), CB Ben Burney (multiple injuries), CB Paul Vigo (leg injury), Anthony Wright (knee injury)

All should be ready to go in the fall with the addition of incoming commits: Deji Olatoye and Parker Orms.

Player(s) Who Emerged:

The four players who stood out this spring were Ben Burney, Jimmy Smith, Patrick Mahnke and Anthony Perkins. Basically, the guys who we needed to step up did to solidify the positions. Another person to watch out for is Tyler Sandersfield. He just seems to make plays, something the coaches have noticed. He is currently #2 on the depth chart at safety but also played in that nickel/rover spot where he adds another physical presence.

Final Assessment:

If the Buffs can generate any sort of pass rush, this group has the ability to cause a lot of turnovers and be a special unit in the Big 12. Forcing turnovers is always an emphasis in spring camp, especially so after the 2008 season when the Buffs finished 94th in the nation in turnover margin. Oklahoma finished first and you can see what bowl game they played in last year. It will all depend on the pass rush, though. If spring practice holds true throughout the season, Ron Collins won't be afraid to play three down linemen and be aggressive with the linebackers, safeties or cornerbacks. The good thing is all of the back seven or eight (plus depth) are returning players which will come in handy if the Buffs are trying to teach a very diverse defense with multiple blitz/cover/responsibility packages.

The secondary should also be aided by a few big wide receiver/quarterback combos coming off the schedule in 2009:

TEAMS WHO LOST PLAYMAKERS FROM LAST YEAR

CSU - will have another starting quarterback but return a pretty good receiver in Rashaun Greer who was ranked 19th in the nation with 1,114 yards receiving last season.
West Virginia - loses QB Pat White who was not a big passing threat but the run-pass option still made defenses nervous.
Kansas State - gone is QB Josh Freeman, the 19th pick in the NFL draft.
Missouri - the Mizzou trio who just killed the Buffs the past two seasons - QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Chase Coffman - all gone. Good riddance. The loss of Maclin alone accounts for 2,800+ total yards in '08 to be replaced in '09.
Nebraska - gone is QB Joe Ganz, WR Nate Swift and WR Todd Peterson. Swift and Peterson combined for 125 receptions, 1,727 yards and 14 touchdowns. TE Mike McNeill is the leading pass catcher returning...who?

TEAMS WHO RETURN MOST OF THEIR PLAYMAKERS

Texas - loses leading receiver Quan Cosby (1,123 yards) but returns WR Jordan Shipley and QB Colt McCoy. Plus its Texas, they reload.
Kansas - QB Todd Reesing (has never lost to the Buffs) and WR Dezmon Briscoe return. This combo should be dangerous again in '09.
Oklahoma State - along with Kansas and Texas, Oklahoma State returns a lot of explosiveness. TE Brandon Pettigrew is gone but the real playmakers in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant are all back.

TEAMS WHO RETURN PLAYERS BUT NOT READY TO CALL THEM PLAYMAKERS

Texas A&M - has their core of young skill players returning.
Iowa State - QB Austen Arnaud returns but who is he going to throw to?

Lions Introduce Day One Picks

Sean Yuille — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:35:36 -0000

More photos » by Jerry S. Mendoza - AP

7 months ago: Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, left, quarterback Matthew Stafford, of Georgia, safety Louis Delmas of Western Michigan and tight end Brandon Pettigrew, of Oklahoma St., pose for a photographs during a news conference where they were introduced to the media and public on Sunday, April 26, 2009 in Allen Park, Mich. The Lions drafted Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. (AP Photo/Jerry S. Mendoza)

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Check out the Lions' draft page for more from today's press conference.

SB Nation - Brandon Pettigrew

Texas at Oklahoma State: OSU Offense Preview

OFFENSE

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

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Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

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Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

Recruits Need Not Be Concerned with the Spread Much Longer

Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus // Oklahoma St. Cowboys

2009 Texas Tech Opponent Prospectus

Game 1: North Dakota Fighting Sioux // Game 2: Rice Owls // Game 3: Texas Longhorns // Game 4: Houston Cougars // Game 5: New Mexico Lobos // Game 6: Kansas State Wildcats // Game 7: Nebraska Cornhuskers // Game 8: Texas A&M Aggies // Game 9: Kansas Jayhawks // Game 10: Oklahoma St. Cowboys

General Information

Statistics

Top Returners

A Few Things

On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most worried and 1 being the least worried, how worried are you about the Oklahoma St. Cowboys?

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Comparing the Online Recruiting Ranking Services

Most Underrated Big 12 Assistant Coach

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

2008

Coaching

Offense

Quarterback

Running Backs

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Summary

Preseason Mags Are Out

Spring Recap: Defensive Backs

Lions Introduce Day One Picks