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Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

No Hunter, no problem? OSU's got RB depth with or without him...but do they have the speed?

One week into conference play, and Gary Pinkel has already pulled a Pinkel.

Gary Pinkel’s teams are experts at exceeding expectations in the most disappointing way possible, even going back to 2002 (predicted to suck, but Brad Smith emerged...and went 5-7) or 2003 (8-5 was quite a lovely step forward, but it still came with super-annoying losses at Colorado and Kansas).

Of course, this phenomenon isn't actually Pinkel's fault. Six weeks ago, if you'd have offered the typical Missouri fan a 4-1 start to the season, they'd have probably accepted it. Sure, in the preseason there was a reasonably realistic route to 5-0, but there were possibilities of a 2-3 or 3-2 start, and I think just to be on the safe side, most of us would have taken 4-1. But now that we've got 4-1, we've moved straight to "Pinkel's too stubborn to adjust, and he'll never win big here again." (And yes, I read a message board comment this week that said exactly that.)

So with redemption on the brain, Mizzou heads to Stillwater for a late-Saturday battle in which, cross your fingers, weather shouldn't play a major role. The Tigers are staring in the face a potential 0-2 (and with Texas on the horizon, 0-3) start to conference play, and while I would love nothing more than to beat OSU in Stillwater for the fourth consecutive time, the big-picture goal for the next two weeks is to a) improve, b) heal physically, c) stick together chemistry-wise, and d) prepare to wreak havoc on the back half of the conference slate.

That said, this is a vulnerable squad Missouri is preparing to meet Saturday night, and Mizzou can absolutely exorcise some of last week's demons and come away with a win. I've got to say, when thinking about this game in the preseason, I didn't exactly see both teams coming into the game vastly higher-rated on defense than on offense. But that appears to be the case. To the numbers!

Offense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

All of the blurbs below come from the preseason preview linked above. Also: this week we've moved on to "+" rankings. For more background on the "+" concept, catch up with the BTBS Primer. The idea is simple: "+" numbers are the typical BTBS numbers adjusted for strength of schedule, meaning the numbers you see below are bounced off of what would be expected based on the competition each team has played to date. A "+" rating of 100.0 means the team has done exactly what was expected based on the competition. Over 100 = good, below = bad.

Realize that these numbers are still quite volatile due to the fact that we're still only working with 5-6 games' worth of data. One good or bad performance can significantly skew a team's rankings. By the end of the season, that will even out, but here's where we stand for now.

Oklahoma State Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	OSU Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	96.4 (77)	122.5 (23)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	95.0 (84)	109.9 (32)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	98.0 (78)	142.4 (19)

Rushing S&P+	87.2 (97)	105.2 (50)
Passing S&P+	116.0 (36)	136.6 (18)

Standard Downs S&P+	93.4 (91)	119.8 (23)
Passing Downs S&P+	117.8 (39)	105.8 (56)

Red Zone S&P+	120.9 (40)	92.2 (79)

Q1 S&P+	101.9 (72)	113.3 (45)
Q2 S&P+	102.7 (64)	163.6 (6)
Q3 S&P+	106.1 (58)	93.1 (79)
Q4 S&P+	87.8 (97)	114.5 (31)

1st Down S&P+	92.0 (93)	124.8 (22)
2nd Down S&P+	95.5 (84)	108.9 (46)
3rd Down S&P+	127.3 (25)	96.3 (75)

Line Yards+	93.2 (87)	103.2 (53)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	1.5% (7)	2.1% (114)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	1.8% (8)	8.3% (51)

Analysis after the jump.

Grain-of-salt reactions (and for a game that features an offense that may or may not feature Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, and a defense that is a little bit skewed by their rain-aided performance last week, these are some serious grains of salt):

Considering the revolving door OSU has been dealing with at running back and wide receiver, it is not surprising that their big-play ability (PPP+) has been a little bit dinged. Both Hunter and Bryant were threats to score at any moment, and without them (Hunter has been slowed by injury, Bryant by Deion Sanders' house), both Zac Robinson and the offensive coaches are still trying to figure out what they have. That, and Robinson himself was slowed by injury this August and was just working into a groove when Hunter went down and Bryant was ruled ineligible. The passing game still has solid big-play potential, but the running game in particular is not tremendously explosive at the moment.
OSU ground out a nice effort on the ground against Texas A&M last week, but their success was due as much to persistence as much as anything. Keith Toston and Beau Johnson combined for 158 yards on 34 carries, a 4.6 per carry average. Those aren't great numbers against an iffy ATM defense, but it got the job done.
Give credit to Robinson for one thing: making plays on Passing Downs. This isn't necessarily a sustainable thing, but he has made nice pass after nice pass on Passing Downs, bailing out the running game a bit for its Standard Downs failure. This comes through in the per-down figures too. OSU has been far below average on first and second downs, but bail themselves out on third downs. Third downs are the weakest down for the Missouri defense, so this is a bit of a concern.
On a per-quarter basis, Missouri has the advantage in every quarter. There is no particular time of the game where it appears OSU may go on a run, but a warning sign would be 2nd-quarter success for OSU. Mizzou has owned Q2 so far this year, and they will need to keep it up, especially if the Mizzou offense starts slow as they are prone to do.
There is a major difference between the OSU line's run- and pass-blocking numbers. That probably means one of two things: either a) Toston and Johnson aren't taking advantage of the blocking they are getting, or b) Robinson is escaping pressure and making the pass-blocking figures look better than they should. I don't know the answer, but those appear to be the two major possibilities. Meanwhile, Mizzou's D-line numbers are only so-so. There is still all sorts of athletic potential from Agents Jacquies and Aldon Smith, but that has only translated into QB hurries in recent games, not sacks. Robinson is very elusive, so the Smiths and Brian Coulter will have their work cut out for them improving on their sack figures.

Quarterback

[W]hile [Zac Robinson] isn't a bulldozer with the ball or anything, defenses consistently have to account for his legs. Between his diverse skills and those of Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant, usually the Cowboy offense finds a crack and puts up some points.
Look at last year's Missouri game, for instance. He averaged a decent 7.7 yards per pass and ran for only 2.8 yards per carry; meanwhile Dez Bryant only accounted for 47 receiving yards. But Kendall Hunter blew up for 154 rushing yards, and OSU did enough to get by the Tigers. Robinson is clearly aided by the strong weapons around him, but he is fun to watch and should put up some pretty ridiculous stats with Hunter and Bryant surrounding him for one more season.

Zac Robinson: 70-for-114 passing (61.4%), 1,070 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 9.4 yards per pass; 46 rushes, 113 yards, 4 TD

Robinson has done nothing on the ground so far this year, but that could be due as much to his preseason hamstring injuries as anything else. As mentioned this summer, he is not a threat to break off an 80-yard TD or anything, but he is capable of running keepers or scrambling down the field if given the opportunity. Meanwhile, his passing numbers are interesting. A 61.4% completion percentage is solid, and his 9.4 yards per pass are excellent, especially considering he's been without Bryant for two games. The Poke passing game is as dependent on his decision making as anything else, and...well, he's made excellent decisions so far.

Running Back

That [Kendall Hunter] put up 154 yards in 24 carries against the Tigers wasn't what impressed me. In fact, taking away one specific run, he managed only 86 yards in 23 carries (3.7 per carry) and was good only for some nice decoying and ball control. But the burst of speed involved in that other run (at the 22-second mark of this video) was all I needed to see to come away impressed. (Granted, he was blowing past guys like Justin Garrett and Hardy Ricks, but still...) His effort against Mizzou was indicative of what made OSU so effective in 2008--they would peck and poke at you, and at some point, your guard would slip and you'd catch an uppercut to the chin.

Kendall Hunter: 32 carries, 104 yards (3.2 per carry), 1 TD; 5 catches, 29 yards (5.8 per catch)
Keith Toston: 72 carries, 410 yards (5.7 per carry), 4 TD; 8 catches, 114 yards (14.2 per catch)
Beau Johnson: 34 carries, 156 yards (4.6 per carry), 4 TD; 6 catches, 57 yards (9.5 per catch)
Jeremy Smith: 15 carries, 160 yards (10.7 per carry), 1 TD

Early word is that Kendall Hunter might not play this weekend, but it sounds like a game-time decision as much as anything. Even if he does play, it's unlikely he'll be 100%, which allows Mizzou to dodge at least one major bullet. Hunter's 2009 numbers are skewed by a rough outing against Georgia in the opener (23 carries, 75 yards), but as Missouri learned last year, his top-end speed is a major threat. Toston and Johnson are by all means competent in the backfield, and they are capable of moving the chains, but they are not the same long-distance threat that Hunter is/was. (That's not to say that Toston isn't at least a bit of a threat--just not as much of one as Hunter.)

Meanwhile, the SI Double-Jinx (seriously, they were on two SI covers in a month...how were they not supposed to get crushed by karma?) has hurt them in the backfield more than anywhere else. True freshman Jeremy Smith, a former Mizzou target, got major playing time against Grambling State in Hunter's absence, and he looked sensational...and then promptly went down for the season with a shoulder injury.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Dez Bryant (+53.8 POE receiving, 1st in the country) is good enough that Robinson might get away with not having another true receiving threat, but somebody needs to at least approximate Brandon Pettigrew's 42 catches and 472 yards for OSU to maintain a step forward. Anyone know who that may be? Anyone at all? All eyes are on Blackmon, it appears, but we'll see.

Dez Bryant (WR): 17 catches, 323 yards (19.0 per catch), 4 TD
Josh Cooper (WR): 10 catches, 157 yards (15.7 per catch), 1 TD
Dameron Fooks (WR): 7 catches, 119 yards (17.0 per catch), 2 TD
Hubert Anyiam (WR): 6 catches, 104 yards (17.3 per catch), 1 TD
Justin Blackmon (WR): 4 catches, 67 yards (16.8 per catch)

Wilson Youman (TE): 5 catches, 59 yards (11.8 per catch)
Tracy Moore (TE): 3 catches, 86 yards (28.7 per catch), 2 TD

In Bryant's absence, this has been the definition of "receiver by committee." A trio of sophomores--Cooper, Fooks, and Anyiam--have all shown flashes of strong play, as have Youman and Moore (another former Mizzou target). You can see by their averages that OSU very much believes in a vertical passing game. Whereas NU only had one player averaging over 12 yards per catch heading into last week's game, OSU has five (not including Bryant). This results in a slightly lower completion percentage, but it has paid off so far for OSU. Again, passing really has not been their major problem.

It will be interesting to see how Mizzou defends the pass overall, especially if Bryant doesn't play. Mizzou's defense is predicated on allowing short passes, tackling well, and making sure not to get beaten deep. Aside from the 60-yard bomb to Niles Paul last week, a play that might not have happened had The Carl Gettis Treatment not gotten hurt on a punt return, Missouri has done a wonderful job of stopping the deep pass. So something will have to give here--either Mizzou's defense breaks down, or OSU has a poor passing night. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Offensive Line

Along with Oklahoma's Trent Williams and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung is perhaps the top lineman on the board for the 2010 NFL draft. He will lead a tremendously experienced OSU offensive line. Only Texas (91) returns more career starts out of their offensive line than the Cowboys do; and while the 'Pokes managed only a 4th-place OL ranking in their own conference (Texas Tech was #1, Oklahoma #2, Missouri #4), they should pretty easily move into the Top 2-3 this year.

It's still early, and their poor numbers really might have as much to do with Hunter being out as anything, but these are not quite the numbers I was expecting from OSU's line this year. Okung is still a highly-valued draft prospect, but overall they should still be producing more in the run game than they are. Even without the disruptive force of Will Ebner, it appears that the Missouri front seven may be able to do reasonably well Saturday night.

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Defense

Oklahoma State: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Oklahoma State Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	OSU Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	113.6 (32)	95.4 (80)
Close Success Rate+	109.9 (32)	96.7 (80)
Close PPP+	142.4 (19)	95.4 (81)

Rushing S&P+	112.5 (34)	79.0 (110)
Passing S&P+	112.4 (35)	111.1 (50)

Standard Downs S&P+	107.8 (43)	99.6 (75)
Passing Downs S&P+	114.1 (40)	99.4 (67)

Red Zone S&P+	92.7 (77)	61.2 (118)

Q1 S&P+	135.7 (24)	87.5 (92)
Q2 S&P+	100.6 (67)	91.9 (88)
Q3 S&P+	102.1 (53)	110.8 (50)
Q4 S&P+	106.9 (46)	114.5 (38)

1st Down S&P+	108.1 (44)	93.3 (90)
2nd Down S&P+	110.0 (41)	104.6 (63)
3rd Down S&P+	110.1 (42)	101.4 (69)

Line Yards+	98.9 (61)	90.6 (93)
Standard Downs Sack Rate	2.4% (105)	1.9% (11)
Passing Downs Sack Rate	9.8% (31)	8.9% (50)

More grain-of-salt assumptions:

It's pretty clear that Missouri's run game is in trouble here, but if they're ever going to get it going, it will be this week. Not that OSU has been bad against the run by any means, but they don't have nearly as good a defensive line as Nebraska and won't be able to stop the run just with the front four and drop everybody else into coverage as successfully. They will have to make a choice--either drop into coverage and leave yourself vulnerable to the run or play the "Make Gabbert Beat You" game...something I'm doubting too many teams will do in the future. Any Missouri-specific adjustments OSU makes to their defensive gameplan will probably come in giving extra help to the pass defense, meaning running lanes might be available.
Like Mizzou, OSU generates next to no pass rush in Standard Downs situations.
Any points Missouri can manage in the first quarter will be a bonus. Q1 is the Missouri offense's worst quarter and the OSU defense's best. If Missouri has the lead after 15 minutes, feel very good about Mizzou's chances.
Resistable force, meet movable object. OSU can't really stop anybody in the Red Zone, and Missouri can't help but be stopped. SOMETHING'S GOT TO GIVE!!!!
First downs will be very important for Missouri. Their third-down conversion rate is only so-so overall, and a lot of that has to do with the holes they are digging for themselves on first down (and of course, a lot of that has to do with not being able to run the ball). Against a defensive line that doesn't generate much pass rush on Standard Downs, you almost have to wonder if a bit of short passing on first downs, a little pass-to-set-up-the-run action, might be the way to go.

Defensive Line

Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Ugo Chinasa (DE): 9.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 2 QBH
Richetti Jones (DE): 6.5 tackles, 5.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Derek Burton (DT): 7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Jamie Blatnick (DE): 8.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
Nigel Nicholas (DE): 8.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FR
Shane Jarka (DT): 6.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH

The OSU defensive line could not possibly be any more different than Nebraska's. While the NU line takes chances and makes plays, it appears the OSU line's main job is to occupy space and free up the linebackers to make the play. As you'll see below, the linebackers and DBs have made a ton of tackles, and the D-line almost none. And yet OSU's defensive effort has been strong this year (before bringing up how many points and yards they gave up to Houston, realize that everybody has given up that many points and yards to Houston, so they don't get penalized for it), so I am thinking it's at least partially by design.

Richetti Jones is in different ways the most and least dangerous lineman OSU's got. He is the most perfect example of an "all or nothing" end you'll ever see. In four games this year, Jones has made just 6.5 tackles...and almost all of them have been in the backfield. So he basically makes about two solid plays a game...and nothing else. Is that good? It seems that that puts pressure on the linebackers to clean up a mess if he ends up out of position or doesn't pursue.

Anyway, this line does not put up many stats, either by design or by talent level. Mizzou's line should be able to line up and block them with infinitely less problem than they had last week; of course, that won't matter if the linebackers are wreaking havoc.

Linebackers

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Donald Booker: 30.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Patrick Lavine: 21.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL/sacks, 2 INT, 2 QBH, 4 PBR
Andre Sexton: 19.5 tackles, 1.5 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBR
Orie Lemon: out for season with torn ACL
Tolu Moala: 10.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH
James Thomas: 10.0 tackles, 1 QBH, 1 PBR
Justin Gent: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL

The first signs that karma just was not on OSU's side this year came when Orie Lemon tore his ACL. Of all of the absences OSU has had to handle, though, that one hasn't been too impactful. For the most part, Donald Booker has taken his place in the starting lineup and thrived. He's one short of a full set of disruptive plays--he has TFL's, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, a QB hurry, and a pass broken up. An INT, and he's got the whole set. Booker, Lavine, and Sexton have been as good as advertised, combining for 7.0 TFL's, a boatload of tackles, 3 INT's and a handful of pass breakups. Just gauging from their stats, it appears that they are used in a relatively reactive way on Standard Downs, and in an attacking, blitzing way on Passing Downs.

Secondary

Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more. Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Johnny Thomas, Lucien Antoine, Markelle Martin, and Victor Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year.

Lucien Antoine (S): 30.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF
Perrish Cox (CB): 9.0 tackles, 9 PBR
Terrance Anderson (CB): 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 PBR
Victor Johnson (S): 15.5 tackles
Andrew McGee (CB): 14.0 tackles, 2 PBR
Markelle Martin (S): 12.0 tackles, 3 PBR
Johnny Thomas (S): 10.0 tackles
Daytawion Lowe (S): 7.5 tackles

Explain this to me: SIX defensive backs have more tackles than the leading tackler on the defensive line. How does that happen? Is that depth? Is that good? I have no idea. In Houston, Rice, and Texas A&M, OSU has faced a load of pass-heavy teams, and I guess it shows here. Really, though, the secondary's performance comes down to two men: Antoine and Cox. Antoine is a hard-hitter and a disruptive force, tying for the team lead in tackles and forcing three fumbles in five games. Meanwhile, Cox has managed a rather astounding nine pass breakups. That shows that, as Dave Matter pointed out yesterday, he is both a) a rock-solid cover guy and b) somebody teams aren't scared of enough to avoid throwing at him. I think it does have something to do with what I mentioned in the above blurb--he is a high-risk, high-reward type of corner.

Meanwhile, if OSU is to play a lot of dime coverage like NU did (and I somewhat doubt they do), the team gets pretty young pretty quickly. Victor Johnson, Markelle Martin, and Johnny Thomas are all sophomores, while Daytawion Lowe, another former Mizzou target, is a true freshman. They could be asked to do a lot Saturday night, and that might not necessarily be a bad thing for Mizzou.

Special Teams

If punter Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Punt Returns Rank: 9th
Net Punting Rank: 5th
Kickoff Returns Rank: 100th
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 86th

Field Goals: 3-for-6
PATs: 25-for-25

One way to look at the overall impact of special teams is to look at Brian Fremeau's Field Position Advantage stat. Despite an overall FEI ranking of just 46th, OSU is 18th in Field Position Advantage (FPA). Their punting has been almost as good as Missouri's, and their returns better. Their kickoff returns have only been average, but that is most likely because teams are somewhat kicking away from Perrish Cox (25.7-yard average), who has only 10 of their 24 team kickoff returns. Before the season, I thought this unit had an extreme advantage over Missouri's, but even though Mizzou has gotten nothing from its kickoff return game yet, overall the units are damn near a wash. If Mizzou can win the special teams battle Saturday night, that would be both unexpected and huge.

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Three Keys to the Game

Make Robinson dink and dunk

Without Dez Bryant, OSU has a no-name receiving corps. So far, the unit has done well thanks to Zac Robinson and good play-calling. They have a big-play passing game even without Bryant, and it is imperative that Missouri's to-date strengths of preventing the long ball continue to come through for Mizzou. Allowing short gains and simply making OSU run as many plays as possible to score will benefit Mizzou throughout the course of the game because it will make unproven play-makers make more plays. A breakdown and a 40+ yard gain could get OSU rolling in a major way.

Third Downs

When OSU has the ball, it is their best down and Missouri's worst. More often than not, on third-and-short with a solid, powerful runner like Toston (he really is a nice combination of speed and muscle, especially for a career backup), OSU will convert. That's fine. But when Missouri forces OSU into a Passing Downs situation (third-and-6 or higher), they must make the stop. OSU has been living a blessed life so far in converting quite a few Passing Downs, and Missouri is in for a long night if they let the Cowboys do the same.

Run the freaking ball.

Clarification: Run the freaking ball well.

We've talked about it all week. As mentioned above, if it doesn't happen this week, it may not happen this season. Run fast, run smart, block well, etc. Just run efficiently and take some pressure off of Blaine Gabbert. That's all we ask.

Prediction

As always, I go with what the numbers tell me here, and I fully expected to be predicting a 7-point OSU win. But after last week, when Mizzou's defense put together a (rain-aided) stellar performance while OSU's defense gave up far too much to Texas A&M, Mizzou's "+" ranking went up with a loss, OSU's down with a win. As it stands right now, Missouri is projected to win by 2. While it's far from the safest bet in the world, it's certainly possible, is it not? If Mizzou wins by two, I'm thinking it would be in the 28-26 realm, so we'll go with that. If Hunter or Bryant play, that shifts the score at least a point or two in OSU's favor.

(And remember: if Mizzou loses...BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE BIG PICTURE.)

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Bill C. — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Yesterday we took a look at the overall strengths and situational weaknesses of what will surely be one of the better offenses in the country in 2009. But to stay in the Top 10 this year, OSU will need to have a defense that can at least slow down the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Georgia, and (hopefully they fit into the "dangerous" category) Missouri. Will they?

Defense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 113.2 (#27)
Success Rate+: 107.4 (#40)
PPP+: 120.5 (#22)

Standard Downs S&P+: 104.2 (#49)
Passing Downs S&P+: 117.7 (#27)

Redzone S&P+: 98.8 (#63)

Q1 S&P+: 130.8 (#11)
Q2 S&P+: 114.8 (#29)
Q3 S&P+: 90.8 (#88)
Q4 S&P+: 95.6 (#68)

1st Down S&P+: 104.2 (#51)
2nd Down S&P+: 105.2 (#45)
3rd Down S&P+: 128.4 (#15)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 108.6 (#41)
Rushing SR+: 108.4 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 109.0 (#48)

Standard Downs: 99.8 (#65)
Passing Downs: 149.6 (#9)

Redzone: 115.1 (#28)

Line Yards+: 115.9 (#17)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 115.8 (#17)
Passing SR+: 106.2 (#37)
Passing PPP+: 127.6 (#17)

Standard Downs: 117.7 (#27)
Passing Downs: 112.5 (#37)

Redzone: 88.6 (#87)

Adj. Sack Rate: 2.7% (#119)

My ongoing theory about OSU's defense was that they were decent in September, unbelievable in October, and poor afterward. Looking at individual game "+" scores, that seems just about right (click to enlarge).

In actuality, OSU's defense seemed to thrive, in part, with the element of surprise. I think about 98% of Missouri fans would have voted for last year's OSU Defensive Coordinator, Tim Beckman, for Assistant of the Year, after watching the 'Poke D confuse Chase Daniel like nobody else had in his three years as starter. He just could not get a feel for where OSU was attacking from and when they dropping into coverage. Colt McCoy was similarly confused--seriously, holding both Missouri and Texas under 30 points was an extremely impressive accomplishment. Between those two games, they also held Baylor to just 6 points. Beckman emptied his bag of tricks, apparently, in the process. When October turned into November, OSU was tapped out. They looked decent against Iowa State, but they gave up 56 points to Texas Tech, 61 to Oklahoma, and 42 to Oregon to end the season. All three of those teams had outstanding offenses, but OSU had fallen from one of the top 2-3 defenses in the league to being distinctly average, or even a little worse.

The downward trend, combined with Beckman's departure to Toledo, make this an impossible defense to figure out for 2009. To meet expectations, the Cowboy D needs to closely resemble its pre-October form, but can it? Was the success due to Beckman's pulling of the strings? Did they just run out of gas? Hard to tell, though it bears mentioning that OSU's biggest regression in terms of pre- and post-November 1 numbers came in Q4. Their Q4 Success Rates + fell from 148.3 before November 1 to 84.6 after, a 42.9% drop. Q4 PPP+ fell 35.9%, and overall Q4 S&P+ fell 36.4%. Sounds like they may need a bit of extra conditioning work this summer.

Looking at OSU's full-year numbers, here's what we know for sure (or at least almost for sure):

Speed in the secondary paid off. OSU's success rate figures were only decent in pass defense, but they were able to limit the big play pretty well. I say that was because of speed--it could have also been due simply to good tackling or good positioning of the safeties. With guys like Perrish Cox back there, though, speed does appear to be an asset in Stillwater.
It is quite possible that the LBs made the DL look good at times. OSU's LB corps is absolutely a strength of this defense, and considering OSU's atrocious sack rates and good line yardage figures, it's possible that the LBs' tackling ability prevented a lot of big rushing plays.
The D-Line was quite possibly a liability. Here's a list of FBS teams with worse Adjusted Sack Rates than Oklahoma State: Idaho. That's it. That's awful. They faced some of the best offensive lines in the country--Texas Tech (#1), Oklahoma (#2), Missouri (#5)--but...Idaho!
The per-quarter numbers lend credence to the idea that Beckman's gameplans were the best thing OSU had going for them. They were dominant in Q1 but started to fade thereafter. This makes sense thinking back to the MU-OSU game. MU drove for a (controversial) field goal on their first drive (controversial, both because Gary Pinkel probably should have gone for it on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, and because Chase Coffman quite possibly scored a TD on second down), but they followed that drive up with their first three-and-out of the season and only managed three points in their four second-quarter drives. Granted, Mizzou missed two field goals in the process, but facts are facts--OSU shut Mizzou down like nobody had in two years.
Once leveraged into Passing Downs, opponents' offenses were very much vulnerable to a big play from the Cowboy Defense. They were okay on Standard Downs, but quite good on Passing Downs and third downs.

The biggest story of the offseason for the OSU defense has been the return of Defensive Coordinator Bill Young to his alma mater. Young has a strong resume, having served as coordinator for an improving Kansas defense from 2003-07 and as Miami-FL DC last year. What change can be expected with Young at the helm? Here are the first-year totals and changes from Young's tenures in Lawrence and Miami.

First, Kansas.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Kansas (2002)	472.4	6.8	256.2	5.8	216.2	8.6
Kansas (2003)	412.6	5.9	194.7	4.9	217.9	7.3
Change	-12.7%	-13.2%	-24.0%	-15.5%	+0.8%	-15.1%

Then, Miami.

	OVERALL		RUSHING		PASSING
Team (Year)	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play	Yds/Gm	Yds/Play
Miami (2007)	345.9	5.1	133.8	3.4	212.2	7.4
Miami (2008)	317.5	5.0	151.8	4.0	165.6	6.4
Change	-8.2%	-2.0%	+13.5%	+17.6%	-22.0%	-13.5%

Needless to say, at both Kansas and Miami-FL, Young wasn't replacing a DC who had done well enough to earn himself a head coaching job at a mid-level FBS school. At Kansas, he inherited one of the worst defenses in the country (seriously...6.8 yards per play??) and made them relatively respectable; he also created the "How to Stop Brad Smith" blueprint that everybody in the North not named Kevin Cosgrove followed for the next three seasons, for what that's worth. At Miami, he took over a respectable defense (33rd in Total Defense in 2007) and made them a bit better (28th) despite a youth movement. In Stillwater, if you are to see improvement, it will probably be more of the Miami variety. OSU is experienced but not particularly deep, but if they're simply better able to execute in the fourth quarter this year, it could make a hefty difference.

Defensive Line

Ugo Chinasa certainly looks the part

2008 Unit Ranking: #55 in the nation (#6 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
DE Ugo Chinasa (6'5, 253, Jr.)
DE Derek Burton (6'3, 285, Sr.)
DT Swanson Miller (6'4, 300, Sr.)
DT Shane Jarka (6'3, 285, Jr.)
DE Richetti Jones (6'3, 253, So.)
DE Jeremiah Price (6'2, 260, Sr.)
DT Chris Donaldson (6'2, 286, Jr.)
DT Nigel Nicholas (6'3, 285, RSFr.)

Young's first task: put together a better defensive line. Due to solid line yardage figures, OSU's defensive line ended up getting at least a moderately respectable #55 ranking, but if OSU has any chance of challenging OU and Texas for South supremacy in 2009, they must figure out how to get to opposing quarterbacks. They have had plenty of recruiting success over the years--starters Ugo Chinasa and Derek Burton were both 4-star recruits in 2006, as was Richetti Jones. But the three of them combined for just 14.0 TFLs and 2.5 sacks in 2008, an unacceptably low number. The projected starting tackles added just 6 more TFLs. Jones is another year removed from a freak hip injury that limited him most of both his redshirt and redshirt freshman seasons, and that should help, but wherever it comes from, production simply must improve in 2009. The experience appears to be there; now the play-making must follow.

Linebackers

Mizzou fans should definitely know Patrick Lavine's name.

2008 Unit Ranking: #20 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Patrick Lavine (6'2, 222, Sr.)
Orie Lemon (6'1, 249, Sr.)
Andre Sexton (6'0, 217, Sr.)
Justin Gent (6'2, 235, Jr.)
Donald Booker (5'11, 235, Sr.)
James Thomas (6'0, 205, So.)

The play-making that did exist on this defense came from the linebacker position. Patrick Lavine, Orie Lemon, and Andre Sexton combined for 13.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 10 QB Hurries, 15 passes broken-up, and a blocked kick (against Missouri, no less). There are certainly better LB units in the country, but when OSU was thriving in October, particularly against Missouri, this unit was the reason why. They are extremely experienced in 2009 (and, consequently, they will be as green as green can be in 2010), and they must take further leadership of the defense.

Secondary

Is this the year Perrish Cox becomes known for being more than just a great kick returner?

2008 Unit Ranking: #29 in the nation (#7 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
CB Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
CB Terrance Anderson (5'11, 185, Sr.)
S Johnny Thomas (6'0, 195, So.)
S Lucien Antoine (6'1, 215, Sr.)
CB Maurice Gray (5'9, 180, Sr.)
S Markelle Martin (6'1, 190, So.)
S Victor Johnson (6'1, 190, So.)
CB Brodrick Brown (5'8, 180, RSFr.)

Again, Oklahoma State has recruited well here. Of the eight names above, an impressive five (Cox, Anderson, Gray, Martin, Johnson) were 4-star recruits via Rivals.com. Cox is highly experienced and one heckuva kick returner, but for three years he's been feast-or-famine at CB. He makes plenty of big plays, but he allows plenty too. As a senior, he should be a little bit more stable. Terrance Anderson showed promise in his junior season, with 1.5 TFLs and a pick, but he'll need to contribute more.

Aside from defensive end, the safety position could be the most make-or-break position on the field for OSU. Quinton Moore and Ricky Price (151 tackles, 6 TFLs, 10 passes broken-up) made nice contributions, and some combination of Thomas, Antoine, Martin, and Johnson will need to at least produce what Moore and Price did last year. OSU's secondary benefitted greatly from my strength of schedule adjustment, but while they were strong in terms of big plays allowed (PPP+), stats like Success Rate+ and completion percentage allowed (62.9% in 2008) need to improve.

Special Teams

Dan Bailey: good. Those shoes: atrocious.

2008 Unit Ranking: #6 net punting, #2 punt returns, #18 kickoff returns

Projected Starters
K Dan Bailey (6'1, 185, Jr.)
P Quinn Sharp (6'1, 177, RSFr.)
KR Perrish Cox (6'0, 195, Sr.)
PR Dez Bryant (6'2, 215, Jr.)

If Quinn Sharp is even slightly competent, this unit is one of the best in the conference. Dan Bailey was perfect on PATs and 15-for-19 on field goals (13-for-14 inside 40 yards); meanwhile Cox (29.8 KR average, 2 TDs...it seems like he's been returning kicks for OSU since 2002) and Bryant (17.9 PR average! 2 TDs) are the most dangerous return duo in the country outside of possibly Gainesville (though Florida has a solo returner, not a duo). With OSU in the South and Nebraska (less so) in the North, we could definitely see how much difference a great special teams unit can make in the conference race in 2009. We know what a bad special teams unit can do to you (hello, 1998 Missouri), but we'll see how big the upside is.

Summary

It does appear that Bill Young's got some athletes to work with here, and experienced ones to boot. If the projected starters hold, OSU will start eight seniors in 2009, including very proven quantities at linebacker. Young is a good defensive coordinator, but it's hard to tell what to expect from his defense this year since it appears that Tim Beckman's gameplans were the best thing they had going for them in 2008. I don't foresee a ton of improvement from this unit in 2009, but if they can manage to be a bit more consistent year-round, and if they can simply improve marginally in the fourth quarter (or at least, don't fall apart in November fourth quarters), then they might make enough plays to pave the way for the offense to win the game for them.

Last week, when talking about Nebraska, I mentioned that it was the offense's job not to lose the game and the defense's job to win it. In Stillwater, it's the exact opposite. Just make some plays, make stops on passing downs, and force some turnovers, and if Dez Bryant has any help in the receiving corps, then OSU could be on its way to ten wins. I don't think they have enough to win the South, but this should be a damn good team.

---

Projections on Friday.

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Bill C. — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:00:06 -0000

Defensive Lines

Oklahoma (DEs Auston English & Jeremy Beal, DTs Gerald McCoy & DeMarcus Granger)
Texas Tech (DTs Colby Whitlock & Richard Jones, DEs Brandon Williams & McKinner Dixon)
Oklahoma State (DEs Ugo Chinasa, Derek Burton)
Texas (DT Lamarr Houston, DEs Sam Acho & Eddie Jones)
Baylor (DT Trey Bryant, DE Jason Lamb)
Texas A&M (DTs Lucas Patterson & Tony Jerod-Eddie)

That's right, all four of OU's DL starters (plus DT Adrian Taylor) return. Granted, any of them could choose to go pro, but a) I doubt it, and b) if so I'd still probably have OU's line #1.

Linebackers

Oklahoma (Travis Lewis, Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box)
Texas (Sergio Kindle--for now, Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton)
Oklahoma State (Orie Lemon, Patrick Lavine, Andre Sexton)
Texas Tech (Brian Duncan, Marlon Williams, Bront Bird)
Baylor (Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson)
Texas A&M (Von Miller, Anthony Lewis, Garrick Williams)

Seriously, OU is going to have BY FAR the best front seven in the conference. Their offense might struggle from time to time, but they'll still be in the South hunt because of a stud defense. Beyond OU, there's pretty much a logjam. If Sergio Kindle decides to go pro, then UT's LBs possibly fall to about #4 or #5 because OSU, Tech and Baylor all return pretty competent units almost intact.

Defensive Backs

Texas (CBs Chykie Brown & Deon Beasley, Ss Earl Thomas & Blake Gideon)
Oklahoma (CBs Dominique Franks, Brian Jackson)
Baylor (S Jordan Lake, CB Antareis Bryan)
Texas Tech (CBs Jamar Wall & Brent Nickerson)
Texas A&M (CB Jordan Pugh, S Jordan Peterson)
Oklahoma State (CB Perrish Cox, ...?)

Texas aside, everybody's secondary takes a step backwards. The Longhorn secondary, however, will be STOUT.

South Defenses, 2009

Oklahoma (17)
Texas (14)
Texas Tech (11)
Oklahoma State (9)
Baylor (8)
Texas A&M (4)

I'm starting to get the indication that Mike Sherman's second year at ATM won't be much better than his first. ATM is young, and they'll have some talent, but at some point they fell a step (or more) behind everybody else in the South.

Special Teams

Oklahoma State (K Dan Bailey, PR Dez Bryant, KR Perrish Cox)
Oklahoma (PR Ryan Broyles, KR DeMarco Murray, K Jimmy Stevens)
Texas (K Hunter Lawrence, P Justin Tucker, KR Malcolm Williams)
Texas Tech (K Donnie Carona, P Jonathan LaCour, KR Edward Britton)
Baylor (KR Mikail Baker, K Ben Parks, P Derek Epperson)
Texas A&M (PR Jordan Pugh, KR Cyrus Gray, ...?)

No complete unit among the group, but OSU is the closest.

Coaches

Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Baylor
Texas A&M

If I rank them again in 5 minutes, I'll probably get a completely different order. I didn't say this was scientific.

2009 South Rankings

Texas (43)
Oklahoma (43)
Oklahoma State (40)
Texas Tech (29)
Baylor (19)
Texas A&M (15)

Honestly, with the status of OU's offense, this surprises me, but there OU is, right in the thick of things. So how do the schedules shake out?

-- Schedules --

Baylor

10/10 - at Oklahoma
10/17 - at Iowa State
10/24 - Oklahoma State
10/31 - Nebraska
11/7 - at Missouri
11/14 - Texas
11/21 - at Texas A&M
11/28 - Texas Tech

North schedule: @ ISU, NU, @ MU. An unfortunate slate for Baylor, really. Yeah, they can probably take out NU at home, but traveling to Ames makes that one something of a tossup (I picked ISU in Monday's North preview, and I'm already regretting that one) and traveling to Columbia gives MU an edge there. I say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, UT, Tech. Hmm. They're going to win one of these games, but I'm not sure which one. Tech, maybe? We'll go with Tech. Two upsets here is possibly too much to ask, but it's not unthinkable. 1-2.

South road slate: @ OU, @ ATM. You know Baylor will be gunning for their first bowl since Grant Teaff next year, and with a likely 3-1 non-conference record (@ Wake Forest, UConn, NW'ern State, Kent State), the bowl bid might come down to the ATM game. They stomped ATM in Waco this year...but for now we'll go with the home team. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Oklahoma

10/10 - Baylor
10/17 - vs Texas
10/24 - at Kansas
10/31 - Kansas State
11/7 - at Nebraska
11/14 - Texas A&M
11/21 - at Texas Tech
11/28 - Oklahoma State

North schedule: @ KU, KSU, @ NU. The trip to Lincoln could be iffy, as could the trip to Lawrence, but...for now I'm sticking with 3-0.

South home slate: Baylor, ATM, OSU. Clearly, getting OSU at Owen Field is big. 3-0.

South road slate: vs UT, @ Tech. Only one true South road game for OU in '09, which gives them nice opportunity to break in a new O-line and possibly a new QB with fewer setbacks. But the youth will still bite them here. I favor UT in Dallas, and the trip to Lubbock screams "setback". 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 6-2.

Oklahoma State

10/10 - at Texas A&M
10/17 - Missouri
10/24 - at Baylor
10/31 - Texas
11/7 - at Iowa State
11/14 - Texas Tech
11/21 - Colorado
11/28 - at Oklahoma

North schedule: MU, @ISU, CU. This sets up very well for OSU. The trip to Ames might be a landmine if the Jack Trice Winds play a factor...but probably not. 3-0.

South home slate: UT, Tech. BIG games here. I say they beat Tech, but...Texas? Are they ready for that? That could decide the South right there. I change my mind later, I'm sure, but I'm going to say yes...yes, they can win that game. 2-0.

South road slate: @ATM, @BU, @OU. The Baylor trip could be a major landmine, but we'll say OSU pulls it off for now. They still lose to OU, though. 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas

10/10 - Colorado
10/17 - vs Oklahoma
10/24 - at Missouri
10/31 - at Oklahoma State
11/7 - Texas Tech
11/14 - at Baylor
11/21 - Kansas
11/28 - at Texas A&M

North schedule: CU, @MU, KU. Yeah, 3-0.

South home slate: vs OU, Tech. Only one true South home game, but they'll TCB. 2-0.

South road slate: @OSU, @BU, @ATM. I said OSU would win? Guess that means 2-1.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 7-1.

Texas A&M

10/10 - Oklahoma State
10/17 - at Kansas State
10/24 - at Texas Tech
10/31 - Iowa State
11/7 - at Colorado
11/14 - at Oklahoma
11/21 - Baylor
11/28 - Texas

North schedule: @KSU, ISU, @CU. 3-0? 0-3? Anything's possible here. I'll go homefield and say 1-2.

South home slate: OSU, BU, UT. 1-2.

South road slate: @Tech, @OU. 0-2.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 2-6.

Texas Tech

10/10 - Kansas State
10/17 - at Nebraska
10/24 - Texas A&M
10/31 - Kansas
11/7 - at Texas
11/14 - at Oklahoma State
11/21 - Oklahoma
11/28 - at Baylor

North schedule: KSU, @NU, KU. 2-1.

South home slate: @UT, @OSU, @BU. Tech's been much better on the road this year than previous years, but without Harrell and Crabtree (and over half the O-line), there will be regression. I'll still have them beating BU, but that's it. 1-2.

South road slate: ATM, OU. 2-0.

Waaaaaaay too early prediction: 5-3.

Standings

Oklahoma State 7-1
Texas 7-1
Oklahoma 6-2
Texas Tech 5-3
Baylor 2-6
Texas A&M 2-6

Summary

I don't think I'm giving Baylor enough credit. They'll probably beat ATM or OSU or something, but who knows. Also, I'm probably giving OSU too much credit--expectations could overtake them. Honestly I'm already wanting to bump UT ahead of OSU and BU ahead of ATM, but that's just me thinking too hard.

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

Bill C. — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:38:53 -0000

South Division

Oklahoma (6-2)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense (particularly success rates)
Q1 Offense
Offensive Points Per Play
Q2 Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#1: Defensive Q4 Rushing S&P+
#2: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive 3rd Down Line Yards+, Defensive Q4 Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#126: Offensive Q1 Line Yards+
#107: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#87: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#77: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Remember back in 2005, when OU's offensive line was a complete and total disaster? Injuries, defections, disappointment...for a number of reasons, the depth was poor, the luck was bad, and lots of freshmen were moving in and out of the starting lineup. The O-line was OU's biggest hindrance, and OU went from back-to-back national title game appearances to a 7-4 record and Holiday Bowl bid.

There's a plus-side to all that lineup shuffling and youth: two or three years later, your O-line is going to be unbelievable. Duke Robinson (senior), Phil Loadholt (senior--though he's a JUCO transfer), Jon Cooper (senior), Brandon Walker (senior), and Branndon Braxton (senior) make up probably the best, most experienced offensive line in the country. They average 6'5, 317, they've combined for 130 career starts, and they form a fortress around sophomore QB Sam Bradford. As rptgwb suggested the other day, we really have no idea how good Bradford is or will be because the line has made his job really easy. He was sacked all of once a game last year. I'm usually skeptical of sophomore QBs who did a little too well their freshman years (cough cough Colt McCoy cough), but...I have no reason to think Bradford's performance will suffer much.

If (if) there's an Achilles Heel on the offense, it's the fact that Malcolm Kelly is gone. Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson and Quentin Chaney (all seniors) make up quite an experienced WR unit, but Kelly was the #1 threat. Iglesias has thrived as the #2 guy (he even caught 19 more passes than Kelly in '07), but when you prepared for OU the last couple years, you prepared knowing that you had to shut Kelly down first and foremost. If Iglesias is facing everybody's #1 CB, will his production suffer? Meanwhile, Johnson and Chaney have repeatedly showed flashes of big-time ability, but they have yet to produce consistently. I've heard really good things from my inside source*, however, about RSFr Ryan Broyles. He's a little guy (6'0, 170) who's doing great things as a slot WR/waterbug. You never know in advance how guys who look good in practice will look in a game, but keep your eye out for him. If he's a reliable underneath threat, that opens things up for Johnson and Chaney (and Adron Tennell) to succeed in the "Go long, and I'll find you a couple times a game" role.

* Backup TE Trent Ratterree is the little brother of my high school best friend, so naturally my high school best friend is taking advantage of this and going to every possible practice and scrimmage.

I haven't said a word about OU's RBs and TEs because, well, it's in pretty good hands there. DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown make for a nice quickness/toughness combo (and they'll look twice as good running behind that O-line), and Jermaine Gresham will catch 50 passes and go pro after '08...opening the door for my boy Ratterree to get some quality PT in '09.

Defensively, the question isn't "Is there talent to replace Curtis Lofton and Reggie Smith?" There's plenty of talent and experience in both the LB corps (Ryan Reynolds, Austin Box, former DB Keenan Clayton, JUCO transfer Mike Balogun) and secondary (seniors Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes, Dominique Franks). Really, the question is simply, can they avoid the occasional breakdown? They're making a national title run here, and breakdowns like the second half of the Colorado game, or the last two Fiesta Bowls, or the '06 Oregon game, simply cannot happen. Franks and junior Brian Jackson should make a solid pair of CBs, but...they're playing a lot of potent offenses. Plus, between Reynolds and Box, there's always somebody hurt in the LB corps. If the back seven is shaky or not totally healthy, the defense could become vulnerable against just about anybody on the conference slate.

One thing they do have in their back pocket, though, is the best D-line in the conference, possibly the country. The backup DEs (John Williams and Mizzou-killer Jeremy Beal) could be the starting unit at most Big 12 schools, but they'll be fighting for playing time with newcomers like RJ Washington and Jonte Bumpus. Auston English is recovering from appendicitis, but he will be full-speed by conference play, and Alan Davis is solid and steady (though I actually think Beal is better). And then, of course, they have two former 5-star recruits in Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus "Five Finger Discount" Granger at DT. Granger's been in the doghouse ever since he was caught shoplifting in Arizona before the Fiesta Bowl, plus he's battling injuries, so they might have to rely on 2-year starter Cory Bennett alongside McCoy. I feel so sorry for them.

Verdict: If the cliche is right, and football really is won in the trenches, then go ahead and hand OU the national title now. They're the best trench warfare team in the country, plus they've got dynamic non-trench talent as well (Murray, Bradford, Gresham, Iglesias, Harris, Holmes, etc.). But can OU avoid the lapses that killed them in '07? I can excuse the West Virginia and Texas Tech losses last year (WV torched a lot of D's, and OU would have beaten Tech if Bradford hadn't gotten hurt), but...Colorado? OU has to face road games against teams that really aren't any worse than CU was last year (KSU, ATM, OSU, maybe Washington). Can they stay healthy and awake enough to win all of those? I'm picking them to do just that, but if I were an OU fan, my biggest concern would simply be that Big Game Bob's teams don't always show up for the Moderate Games.

Texas (5-3)

Game-Changing Stats

Q1 Defense
1st Down Pass Offense
2nd Down Defense
Q2 Offense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#2: Defensive Rushing EqPts+
#6: Defensive Line Yards+
#7: Defensive Redzone Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#101: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#95: Defensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#92: Defensive Q4 S&P+
#82: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+

Texas Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

...

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

Verdict: Tech may be the flavor of the month, but with a more stable (read: fewer INTs from Colt McCoy) offense and a more intense, less breakdown-oriented defense, Texas is still the second-best team in the South. Unfortunately for them, they do play Tech in Lubbock.

Texas Tech (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Q3 Defense
2nd Down Defense
Redzone Offense
Q3 Rush Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Defensive Passing EqPts+
#1: Offensive Passing EqPts+
#2: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#2: Offensive Q2 S&P+, Offensive 2nd Down S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#122: Defensive Q1 Line Yards+
#117: Offensive Rushing EqPts+
#115: Defensive Q4 Passing S&P+
#113: Defensive Q2 Line Yards+

I've given up on trying to figure out exactly how Texas Tech had the "#1 defense in the Big 12" after long-time assistant Ruffin McNeill took the DC job midseason last year. They didn't. They still managed to give up 59 to Texas, 41 to Missouri, 31 to Colorado (Colorado!), 28 to Virginia, and 27 to Oklahoma after McNeill took over, and their D-line still served as just as good a sieve to rushing yards. As I've said many times this offseason, I think Texas Tech is without a doubt a Top 15-18 team...but no higher. And as I've said many times, they were two injuries to opponents' QBs (Sam Bradford, Jameel Sewell) away from a possible 7-6 record in '07. They do indeed return most of their key contributors from '07, including the best freshman WR of all-time, Michael Crabtree, but let's not pretend like there aren't holes here.

And let's start with the holes:

They've lost their one playmaking LB, Paul Williams (7.5 TFL's in '07, and a stellar success rate). We've heard lots of good things about sophomores Bront Bird and Brian Duncan, and there's a nice group of athletic RSFr's fighting for playing time, but they had one true playmaker, and he's gone.
The secondary is experienced and a little more deep than the typical Tech secondary, but...teams don't throw on Tech. They run on Tech. And while this could be the best D-line Tech's had in a long time (which is one of the reasons I think they're a Top 15-18 team), it's still not as good as OU's, or Texas's, or Missouri's, or Kansas's, or Colorado's. DTs' Colby Whitlock and Rajon Henley are solid, and there's potential at DE with Brandon Williams, Jake Ratliff, and McKinner Dixon. But again...at best, they're the #6 DL in the conference.
The offense still seems to get a bit timid when punched in the mouth. Missouri held them in check for 4 quarters by hitting them really hard, Colorado and Virginia did for 3. Once Oklahoma got its offense going while attempting a comeback, Tech's O ground to a total halt. Shannon Woods is a fantastic RB for Tech's offense, but he's not a power guy, not an "If Tech gains 2 yards on this play, they win the game...let's give it to that guy!" guy.

Again, though, this is why I don't think they're a conference or national title contender. They're still a good team, and getting Texas at home means they have a legitimate shot at #2 in the South and 10 wins overall (most wins under Leach: 9). Graham Harrell is the best, most experienced QB Mike Leach has had. Michael Crabtree is...Michael Crabtree. Guys like Eric Morris and Edward Britton will make sure that Danny Amendola won't be missed. The O-line returns all starters, plus it's humongous. Tech has more pure star power than it ever has before.

Verdict: Tech is 20-24 on the road under Mike Leach. They face Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas A&M, and Kansas State on the road. Plus, they get Texas at home (last time they gave up less than 38 points to Texas: 2000). In other words, this is not a national title contender, and it's unfair to them to place the expectations that high. That said, this is just about the most dangerous team in the country. They can win any single game on their schedule, and if they wanted to win the South so that we didn't have to face OU in the conference title game (knock on wood), I sure wouldn't object.

Oklahoma State (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

3rd Down Defense
Pass Offense
Redzone Defense
Defensive Points Per Play

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive 2nd Down Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Q2 Line Yards+
#2: Offensive Line Yards+
#3: Offensive 1st Down Line Yards+, Offensive Non-Passing Downs Line Yards+

Bottom Ranks

#124: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#121: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#107: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Oklahoma State Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

Really, the key to Oklahoma State's 2008 season isn't any of my numbers, it's PS#'s. Phil Steele followers will know that PS#'s are Steele's coordinated recruit rankings. OSU has begun to put together quite a few strong PS#'s over the last couple of years. WR Dez Bryant? PS#5 (i.e. the #5 WR of his class). New RB Beau Johnson? PS#7. DE Richetti Jones? PS#9. CB Perrish Cox? PS#12. WR William Cole? PS#25. Ugo Chinasa? PS#31. DE Derek Burton? PS#38. Mike Gundy has pulled together a deep amount of not only strong athletes but pretty highly-touted guys. It's time those guys start producing. And if the defensive guys on that list step up, OSU might not be able to win string a bunch of wins together and take the South, but they can win any individual game on the schedule...against Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, whoever. But without some new playmakers on the line and some competition in the secondary, a third straight 7-6 season seems ready to enter the books.

Verdict: I STILL have no idea what to do with OSU. They've got talent, athleticism, a dynamic QB, and an underrated offensive line. But their pass defense managed to be both horrific AND prone to breakdowns in 2007, and it's really hard for me to predict a major jump from them until they prove that they've improved in that area.

Texas A&M (4-4)

Game-Changing Stats

Non-Passing Downs Defense
Q3 Offense
Rushing Offense
1st Down Defense

Top Ranks

#1: Offensive Q4 S&P+
#3: Offensive Q4 Line Yards+
#5: Offensive Q1 Rushing S&P+
#8: Offensive Q4 Rushing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#121: Offensive Q1 Passing S&P+
#118: Defensive Q2 Passing S&P+
#117: Offensive Redzone Passing S&P+
#115: Offensive Q2 S&P+

I got wordy about Tech and really wordy about OU, but...I just don't have that much to say about ATM. The hiring of Mike Sherman means that ATM will continue to be a physical team that can sneak up and bite you. Mike Goodson is obviously a big play waiting to happen, Stephen McGee is tough as nails, and they return a bunch of hard-hitters on defense--particularly guys like Devin Gregg and Crazy Michael Bennett. But...they still lack overall speed on defense, they don't have a QB who fits a pro-style offense, they lost their only two big-play threats in the passing game (Martellus Bennett, Kerry Franks), they have to replace 3 starters on the D-line, and they have to replace 3.5 on the O-line. The Big 12's too good this year to win big with that many weaknesses.

Verdict: I think I said it all above. I didn't like the Sherman hire, but any new ATM coach will have the opportunity to build some good, Texas-based recruiting classes, and eventually succeed. It's just not going to happen this year.

Baylor (0-8)

Game-Changing Stats

Pass Offense
2nd Down Offense
Q3 Offense
2nd Down Defense

Top Ranks

#5: Defensive Passing Downs S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down S&P+
#6: Defensive 3rd Down Passing S&P+
#7: Defensive Passing Downs Passing S&P+

Bottom Ranks

#125: Offensive Q3 Rushing S&P+
#124: Offensive Q3 Line Yards+
#123: Defensive 1st Down Passing S&P+
#123: Defensive Q3 Passing S&P+

Baylor Football: Beyond the Box Score 2007

There's more potential with this Baylor team than has been seen in green and gold for a while. But that's not saying much. Kirby Freeman was highly-recruited out of high school but pretty much flamed out at Miami--he's got potential, but if he doesn't get the QB job, a brand spanking new 4-star QB (with loads of, you guessed it, potential) is available to give it a shot. Briles' first (partial) recruiting class featured quite a bit of potential and speed, and that's probably what the Bears have been lacking most. They have a potential go-to WR in Thomas White, a potentially strong O-Line, and a couple potential big-time defenders in [Joe] Pawelek and [Jordan] Lake.

But let's be honest--every other team in the Big 12 (aside from maybe Iowa State) has more potential at the moment, along with more proven commodities. To turn this ship around in one season would require not one, but a series of miracles, and while Briles has proven himself to be a good coach...he hasn't proven himself God.

Verdict: A month or so after I wrote the above post, Art Briles still has yet to prove himself God. So everything I said above still stands.

BALANCE OF POWER

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Baylor

SCHEDULES

North Division
Missouri

Likely Wins (8): SEMO, Nevada, Buffalo, Oklahoma State, Colorado, @ Baylor, Kansas State, @ Iowa State

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (4): vs Illinois, @ Nebraska, @ Texas, vs Kansas

Prediction: It's hard to pick anybody to win in Austin, and I feel a bit like a homer for doing so, but...I'm doing it. This is possibly the best Mizzou team of my lifetime, and just in case they really do go 12-0, I want to say I picked it. I still get to be a fan. 12-0 (8-0).

Kansas

Likely Wins (6): Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ South Florida, Texas Tech, @ Nebraska, Texas, vs Missouri

Prediction: Depending on how KU responds to what is really one heckuva 5-week stretch (@OU, TT, KSU, @NU, UT), they could be 6-5 or 10-1 headed into the Mizzou game. I say they beat USF, Tech, and NU, meaning they're 9-1 headed into the UT game...and they lose to UT and MU. 9-3 (5-3).

Nebraska

Likely Wins (5): Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Baylor

Likely Losses (2): @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Tossups (6): Virginia Tech, Missouri, @ Iowa State, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Colorado

Prediction: I really do expect NU to be undefeated heading into the Mizzou game. They should handle a thin Virginia Tech squad at home before (I hope) losing to Mizzou. Then it gets tough to predict. I fully expect ISU to beat somebody at home, but I don't think they match up well at all with NU, so NU takes that one. They lose to both Kansas teams, but bounce back to beat CU. Which puts them at...8-4 (4-4).

Colorado

Likely Wins (3): Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Iowa State

Likely Losses (3): @ Florida State, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, @ Nebraska.

Prediction: They match up pretty well with WV, I think, but no. They lose that one and lose another tight one to Texas before bouncing back against KSU, then heading down and winning in College Station. From there they take out OSU and lose to NU. 6-6 (4-4).

Kansas State

Likely Wins (3): North Texas, Montana State, UL-Lafayette

Likely Losses (3): Oklahoma, @ Kansas, @ Missouri

Tossups (6): @ Louisville, Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa State

Prediction: Beat Louisville, lose a tight one to Tech, lose the roadies to ATM and CU, pick off NU and ISU at home. The one trick here is, that would put them at 4-6 heading home for NU and ISU. It's quite possible that they don't keep it together enough to get to 6-6, but I'll say they do it. 6-6 (2-6).

Iowa State

Likely Wins (2): South Dakota State, Kent State

Likely Losses (5): Kansas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, Missouri, @ Kansas State

Tossups (5): @ Iowa, @ UNLV, @ Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M

Prediction: Iowa's always a tossup, but no. UNLV may actually be decent this year, but...I have to have ISU beating somebody. So they beat UNLV, lose to Baylor and Nebraska, and take out ATM. 4-8 (1-7).

South Division

Oklahoma

Likely Wins (10): Chattanooga, Cincinnati, @ Washington, TCU, @ Baylor, Kansas, @ Kansas State, Nebraska, @ Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (2): vs Texas, @ Oklahoma State

Prediction: I put OSU on the tossups list because it always seems like a tight game in Stillwater. And while it's quite possible OU slips up on the road, I just don't know who that's going to be to. So I'll say 12-0 (8-0).

Texas

Likely Wins (7): Florida Atlantic, @ UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas A&M

Likely Losses: none

Tossups (5): @ Colorado, vs Oklahoma, Missouri, @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas

Prediction: I almost picked CU to upset UT until I realized that would mean I'd have UT losing three in a row (after picking them to lose to OU and MU). That's probably not going to happen. So they beat Colorado, lose to OU, MU, and Tech (I guess), and beat Kansas. 9-3 (5-3).

Texas Tech

Likely Wins (6): Eastern Washington, @ Nevada, SMU, UMass, Nebraska, Baylor

Likely Losses (1): @ Oklahoma

Tossups (5): @ Kansas State, @ Texas A&M, @ Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State

Prediction: I just can't see them going better than 3-2 on the road, but I will have them beating KSU and ATM before losing to KU. They then beat UT and OSU to finish...10-2 (6-2).

Oklahoma State

Likely Wins (6): Houston, Missouri State, Troy, Texas A&M, Baylor, Iowa State

Likely Losses (2): @ Missouri, @ Texas

Tossups (4): @ Washington State, @ Texas Tech, @ Colorado, Oklahoma

Prediction: The Wazzu game is pretty tricky, but...I'm a minor OSU homer, so I say they'll handle that one. But they'll lose the other three tossups. 7-5 (3-5).

Texas A&M

Likely Wins (2): Arkansas State, Army

Likely Losses (3): @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas

Tossups (7): @ New Mexico, Miami-FL, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Iowa State, Colorado, @ Baylor

Prediction: ATM does have a chance to make something out of this season, but...oy, I don't know. I say they take out the two non-con teams (UNM, Miami), beat KSU, lose to Tech, ISU and CU, then beat Baylor. 6-6 (2-6).

Baylor

Likely Wins (1): Northwestern State

Likely Losses (7): @ UConn, Oklahoma, @ OSU, @ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech.

Tossups (4): Wake Forest, Washington State, Iowa State, Texas A&M

Prediction: If Briles finds and offense and they're tough at home, they could end up with a solid record, as they have 5 winnable home games. But I don't see it happening yet. Beat Iowa State, lose the others. 2-10 (0-8).

STANDINGS

North

Missouri (8-0)
Kansas (5-3)
Nebraska (4-4)
Colorado (4-4)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (1-7)

South

Oklahoma (8-0)
Texas Tech (6-2)
Texas (5-3)
Oklahoma State (3-5)
Texas A&M (2-6)
Baylor (0-8)

Big 12 Championship

So it comes to this. Winner goes to the National Title Game. This is the year Fink beats the stomach, and by God, this is the year Missouri beats Oklahoma. I think. This is turning into the 2000-02 stretch in basketball where we couldn't beat them in the postseason (or season) to save our lives. But we'll say last year's Big 12 title game was the equivalent to losingto them in the Elite Eight in '02. And again...if it happens, I want to say I predicted it.

Missouri > Oklahoma

BOWLS

National Title Game: Missouri, dammit (13-0)
Fiesta Bowl (again): Oklahoma (12-1)
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Texas (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Kansas (9-3)
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (6-6)
Texas Bowl: Colorado (6-6)

Other Bowl Eligible Teams
Kansas State (6-6)

Coming later this week: I put the whole thing together.

SB Nation - Derek Burton

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Offense

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Offensive Line

---

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

---

Three Keys to the Game

Prediction

Oklahoma State Preview

Oklahoma State: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

Special Teams

Summary

The Fog of '09 - South Defenses

Defensive Lines

Linebackers

Defensive Backs

South Defenses, 2009

Special Teams

Coaches

2009 South Rankings

-- Schedules --

Baylor

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Standings

Summary

Beyond the Box Score: Official Big 12 Edition (Part Two)

BALANCE OF POWER

SCHEDULES

STANDINGS

BOWLS