SB Nation - Chris Ogbonnaya

Mizzou Links, 10-23-09

Bill C. — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:58:39 -0000

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Who hasn't written a "Danario Alexander better late than never" profile at this point?

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Mizzou-Texas Links!

MUtigers.com: Football Fan Primer
The Trib (Dave Matter): Writer's Block
BTS: What's going on with the Texas offense? Is it simply a case of no continuity at running back and identifying a No. 2 receiver?
Ballou: Every time we ask the coaches what is going on with the offense, they laugh and say they don't know either. They do. The chemistry isn't what it was last year, and they aren't producing at the rate they'd like. McCoy has been sick before their two biggest games (Tech & OU) - but even to him, that's not the excuse. They just keep saying they need to play better and execute better. He has Jordan Shipley, but beyond that, it's who steps up at wideout on a game to game basis.

I think the loss of two great glue guys in WR Quan Cosby (who caught everything) and RB Chris Ogbonnaya has hurt them too. I also think that Fozzy Whittaker is the best running back they have, but he's been hurt too much. He finally had his chance against OU and showed why, when healthy, he should get the majority of the carries.

Bohls: Colt has not been Colt all year. Never in a rhythm. Misses Quan Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya. Their wide receivers have not been consistent, one reason Mack demoted Chiles and Kirkendoll this week.
The Missourian: Despite injury, Blaine Gabbert expects to spur offense for MU football team
The Missourian: 10 things that make Texas a bad homecoming opponent
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 11, Pt. 2

Oh yeah, and Texas? You can keep your big fan, we'll keep ours.

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preview

Bill C. — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:30:15 -0000

Saturday night Missouri plays in what could possibly be the last game of the regular season in which they are the underdog (unless Kansas avoids a tailspin). What kind of upset chances do the Tigers have? What do the stats tell us are possible opportunities (and serious threats) for our most losable Homecoming game in quite some time? To the numbers!

Offense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

As you'll see, I've made the switch from raw Sack Rate figures to the schedule-adjusted Sack Rate+ ratings. These numbers still have a bit of a small sample size issue, meaning that the highs and lows for each category are more extreme than in other categories. For instance, Auburn is #1 in Offensive Sack Rate+ with a rating of over 400--rarely will you see a rating of over 200-250 in most categories. Keep that in mind when you see Missouri's really low Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate+--it's bad, but it's not quite as bad as the number you see.

Texas Offense vs Missouri Defense
Category	UT Offense	MU Defense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (21)	121.6 (25)
Close Success Rate+ (Rk)	119.7 (12)	107.6 (39)
Close PPP+ (Rk)	122.4 (31)	143.1 (16)

Rushing S&P+	124.2 (18)	101.3 (66)
Passing S&P+	116.3 (36)	143.4 (15)

Standard Downs S&P+	129.0 (7)	116.3 (26)
Passing Downs S&P+	124.4 (29)	115.7 (34)

Red Zone S&P+	117.2 (44)	94.0 (77)

Q1 S&P+	131.4 (23)	100.5 (63)
Q2 S&P+	126.7 (25)	154.0 (8)
Q3 S&P+	151.3 (6)	100.7 (56)
Q4 S&P+	118.7 (30)	120.4 (23)

1st Down S&P+	143.4 (5)	116.0 (31)
2nd Down S&P+	121.7 (26)	113.8 (35)
3rd Down S&P+	120.5 (29)	111.0 (40)

Line Yards+	99.3 (72)	104.5 (54)
Close Sack Rate+	147.3 (27)	85.7 (84)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	164.7 (27) / 137.0 (38)	49.3 (106) / 91.0 (70)

Analysis after the jump.

Let's start with where Missouri has the rankings advantage:

Close PPP+
Passing S&P+
Q2 S&P+
Q4 S&P+
Line Yards+

To win this game, Missouri must defend those rankings, first and foremost. They have been one of the better teams in the country in terms of not giving up big plays (PPP+), and that must continue. Their "allow the short passes and tackle well" approach has worked for the most part, and that must continue. They get stronger as the half moves on, and that must continue. Texas simply has not run-blocked very well this year, and Missouri must take advantage of that.

Other thoughts:

Here are the categories where Texas holds the biggest advantage: Rushing S&P+, Red Zone S&P+, Q1 S&P+, Q3 S&P+, 1st Down S&P+, Standard Downs S&P+. While Missouri must maintain the advantages they do have, they also need to minimize the damage done here. Early-half stops. Big-time run support from the likes of Sean Weatherspoon, Will Ebner, Aldon Smith, etc. Figuring out some way, any way, to get pressure on Colt McCoy on 1st Downs and not allow him to get off quick pass after quick pass.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

Colt McCoy: 156-for-223 passing (70.0%), 1,537 yards (6.9/pass), 11 TD, 7 INT; 48 rushes, 91 yards (1.9/carry), 1 TD

Last season, Texas ranked 24th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 2nd in Passing Downs S&P+. So far this year, they are up to 7th in Standard Downs S&P+, but only 29th in Passing Downs S&P+. Has McCoy regressed? Did he somehow become less "clutch"? Doubtful. Granted, Texas' offensive line probably isn't the best in the conference, but I still think Texas' struggles (and "struggles" is used loosely here--29th in Passing Downs S&P+ is nothing to scoff at, though McCoy's already thrown 7 interceptions this year after only throwing 8 last year) are most explained by simple regression to the mean. All in all, McCoy's numbers are absolutely respectable--70% completion rate, almost seven yards per pass, etc.--but human. Regression to the mean was the single biggest reason I didn't think McCoy had a chance at this year's Heisman (his chance was last year, when almost everything went right), and so far I've been proven correct on that one. Of course, he could complete 80% of his passes and throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs a game from here on out, and he could still win the big trophy...but I doubt it.

Running Back

The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation?

Vondrell McGee: 46 carries, 260 yards (5.7/carry), 2 TD; 8 receptions, 37 yards (4.6/catch)
Tre' Newton: 41 carries, 203 yards (5.0/carry), 3 TD; 3 receptions, 21 yards (7.0/catch)
Fozzy Whittaker: 23 carries, 121 yards (5.3/carry), 2 TD; 6 receptions, 24 yards (4.0/catch)
Cody Johnson: 29 carries, 104 yards (3.6/carry), 5 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards (6.5/catch)
D.J. Monroe: 17 carries, 91 yards (5.4/carry)

Gosh, what torture Mack Brown must go through trying to figure out ways to find carries for five different running backs. Makes you feel sorry for him, huh? Right now, the amalgamation of Texas' five main backs, "Vozztre' Monson," has put together a workmanlike 156 carries for 779 yards and 12 TDs. That's 5.0 yards per carry and 130 yards per game...for the season, that would be roughly what LeSean McCoy produced for Pittsburgh last year. Plus, Vozztre Monson has one luxury that McCoy did not--extra limbs. In case a shoulder or ankle or knee gets injured, he has plenty of other sets upon which to fall back.

Texas' running game will lull you to sleep--nobody here averages over six yards per carry (for comparison, Alabama's Mark Ingram is currently averaging 6.7 per carry, Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams 6.0), but they are quite efficient, and even though they've gotten little contribution from McCoy so far, the run game ranks in the nation's top 20. They're doing something right, even if they don't have any one guy as good as someone like Jamaal Charles.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

If Texas can replace Quan Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

WR Jordan Shipley: 51 catches, 605 yards (11.9/catch), 3 TD
WR Dan Buckner: 29 carries, 333 yards (11.5/catch), 4 TD
WR John Chiles: 22 catches, 177 yards (8.0/catch), 2 TD
WR James Kirkendoll: 20 catches, 198 yards (9.9/catch), 1 TD
WR Marquise Goodwin: 14 catches, 127 yards (9.1/catch), 1 TD
WR Malcolm Williams: 8 catches, 84 yards (10.5/catch)

TE Greg Smith: 3 catches, 22 yards (7.3/catch)

Where would this team be without Jordan Shipley? He's the only main Texas receiver averaging over 11.5 yards per catch, and he has caught as many passes as the Longhorns' #2 and #3 receivers combined. No offense to the guy (hey, did you hear he roomed with Colt McCoy?), but I kind of wish the NCAA hadn't given him an extra year of eligibility after his 17 career injuries. Kinda wish they'd inflicted the John Dausman "Yeah, you tore up your knee twice and missed 1.9 full seasons, but your team just isn't important enough for us to care about you too much...but you better not do anything illegal, because we need to throw the book at somebody for USC's violations" ruling at him*.

(* Yeah, that was a little bitter. I need to get better at letting things go. Dausman was a senior in 2000, and he really wasn't even that great. Shipley is exactly who the sixth-year exception is made for, and just ignore me because I'm a bitter person.)

Anyway, there has been a bit of a revolving door at WR for Texas, with plenty of people getting an opportunity at the "McCoy's #2 guy" role and nobody completely accepting it. For this game, it appears that the main shots will go to speedy Marquise Goodwin and huge Malcolm Williams. Goodwin scored UT's only touchdown against OU, and Williams has the single highest fear-induced-to-actual-production ratio in the country. Opposing fans are petrified of this guy, and justifiably so (I mean, did you see the catches he made against Missouri and Texas Tech last year??)...but in his first season and a half on the depth chart, Williams has caught a total of 25 passes, or six fewer than Missouri's Jared Perry has caught this year alone. But somehow, he really is terrifying, and you just hope he waits until next week to wake up.

Offensive Line

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Rate). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Compared to last year, Texas' sack rates have improved quite a bit...and their run-blocking has gotten worse. With the line yardage figures, a line is punished if backs dance too much or are not aggressive enough hitting holes, so as I do when talking about Missouri's own line yardage figures, I wanted to make sure that disclaimer was mentioned. That said, this does appear to be one area where Missouri matches up well. We can talk about how disappointed we are that the athletic end trio of Aldon Smith, Jacquies Smith, and Brian Coulter haven't gotten to the quarterback more, but they have been stout in run support, and Missouri's front seven might be able to stand up pretty well to the Texas running game, especially if Will Ebner is anywhere near 100%. Love that guy.

Overall, the key to stopping McCoy will be doing whatever you can to force mistakes out of him. Missouri has not been great at forcing turnovers, but that will need to change, and if you can leverage a team into enough Passing Downs, the turnovers seem to flow out a lot easier. That means stopping the run, that means batting passes down, and that means tackling well after short passes (and if the receivers' per-catch totals mean anything, they will absolutely throw short).

---

Defense

Texas: 2009 Beyond the Box Score Preseason Defensive Preview

Texas Defense vs Missouri Offense
Category	UT Defense	MU Offense
Close S&P+ (Rk)	138.9 (11)	98.1 (75)
Close Success Rate+	128.6 (9)	98.2 (78)
Close PPP+	154.6 (12)	98.9 (78)

Rushing S&P+	187.1 (1)	87.0 (101)
Passing S&P+	122.6 (26)	106.9 (64)

Standard Downs S&P+	139.4 (6)	102.3 (68)
Passing Downs S&P+	157.8 (6)	97.5 (75)

Red Zone S&P+	164.6 (7)	61.9 (119)

Q1 S&P+	144.9 (13)	102.6 (71)
Q2 S&P+	171.5 (3)	93.9 (84)
Q3 S&P+	123.5 (24)	114.9 (42)
Q4 S&P+	158.0 (5)	101.7 (72)

1st Down S&P+	132.4 (17)	101.9 (68)
2nd Down S&P+	147.1 (11)	107.2 (59)
3rd Down S&P+	199.4 (1)	92.5 (88)

Line Yards+	252.4 (1)	91.9 (94)
Close Sack Rate+	100.2 (60)	170.1 (17)
Standard Downs / Passing Downs Sack Rate+	88.9 (75) / 133.3 (30)	171.3 (24) / 138.5 (37)

Let's once again start by looking at where Missouri holds the statistical advantage:

Close Sack Rate+
Standard Downs Sack Rate+

Aaaaaaaaand that's about it. So in the name of maintaining the advantages they have, Missouri must make sure that Blaine Gabbert does not face much pressure. Sergio Kindle becomes an extremely scary presence on Passing Downs (just ask Taylor Potts), but before Missouri can worry about that, they have to protect and make sure that Gabbert sees as little pressure as possible on the downs in which running and passing are of equal likelihood.

Other thoughts:

If Missouri can get ANYTHING WHATSOEVER out of the running game, I will be thrilled. That is the single biggest difference in rankings between the two teams (that, and the heavily-related Line Yards+). If Missouri is going to win this game, Derrick Washington absolutely has to find the fifth gear he misplaced sometime early last year. We know what D-Wash can do, but he hasn't done it in quite a while.
Texas gets better with each progressive down, from 17th on 1st downs, to 11th on 2nd, to 1st on 3rd. That puts significant pressure on Missouri to get yards on first down. If it doesn't come from the running game, it has to come with short passing. Andrew Jones needs to pretty quickly find a cure for invisibility because he could be very useful here.
As I've mentioned before, the truest signal of a young team is lack of success on third downs and Passing Downs. Missouri has predictably struggled here, and it will be quite a task to suddenly improve against the best defense they will face this year. Here's where Missouri's play-calling and effort will need to be at their A+ level. The coaches will need to deftly put players in the position to succeed, and the players will have to take advantage of it. Rocket science, I know.

Defensive Line

The main man in making sure UT's QB pressure doesn't drop in 2009 isn't even on the list above. That, of course, would be hybrid LB/DE Sergio Kindle (14 TFL, 10 sacks), listed below in the LBs list. He will be the main rush end, I think, in passing situations. Along with Kindle, it's probably time for former 5-star recruit Eddie Jones to make his move. In 13 games last year, he managed only eight tackles in backup time, though five went for loss (he also added 5 QBH, but I'm starting to think that Texas statisticians were VERY liberal in their interpretation of what constitutes a "hurry"). If he can become a reliable force alongside Kindle and Sam Acho, Texas should be just fine. If he doesn't, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will be looking toward Dravannti Johnson and maybe stud true freshman Alex Okafor to provide the lacking pressure.

DE(ish) Sergio Kindle: 20.0 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FF, 1 PBR
DE Sam Acho: 19.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FR, 8 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Lamarr Houston: 17.0 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 2 FR, 17 QBH, 2 PBR
DT Ben Alexander: 13.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

If this team had nobody named Kindle or Acho, it would be much less intimidating. Kindle (DE/LB), Sam Acho (DE), and Emmanuel Acho (DE) have combined for 22 TFL/sacks, five forced fumbles and six fumble recoveries. They are the disruptive force in Will Muschamp's defense. Meanwhile, Lamarr Houston and Ben Alexander have both made a strong number of plays for DTs--not the Ndamukong Suh level of plays, but a lot. Man for man, this is probably a better line than what Missouri faced against Nebraska, which is a scary thought...though the field should be dry, which can't hurt.

Linebackers

Whereas the D-line had headliners and great stats, the Texas linebackers (sans Kindle) were probably a bit overshadowed in 2008. But when a defense is equally great at stopping the run and the pass, some of that is going to be because of a good LB corps, and that reflected well in my LB rankings. Kindle and fellow 2009 seniors Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton were extremely steady in 2008, and there's no reason to expect otherwise in 2009. Muckelroy only had four TFLs and didn't really play a role in forcing many turnovers, but he was UT's main tackler, racking up 112 (71 solo). There is little experience behind this trio of seniors, but Keenan Robinson and Tariq Allen were both 4-star recruits--they'll probably be alright in 2010...or at least 2011.

Roddrick Muckelroy: 30.5 tackles, 6.0 TFL/sacks, 7 QBH, 5 PBR
Keenan Robinson: 20.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 3 PBR
Emmanuel Acho: 20.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 3 FF, 2 FR, 3 QBH
Dustin Earnest: 9.5 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 QBH

Aside from Kindle and the Achos, this front seven is steady and fast...and that's all they need to be. It seems like Roddrick Muckelroy has been playing for the Longhorns for nine years now, and he brings a nice, steadying force to the UT defense, allowing others to take more chances.

Secondary

If there's an area of aimed-for improvement in this unit, it comes in the form of interceptions--they only snagged six in 2008. In landing the #3 ranking, they benefited from the fact that my rankings don't place heavy emphasis on turnovers. They covered and tackled well, but one thing that can help out the Texas offense--one that I'm still saying might struggle more than expected thanks to their disproportionate success on Passing Downs--is by setting up some short fields and easy points. These are mostly 3- and 4-star recruits with a growing amount of experience, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a secondary that was a liability just a couple of years ago, suddenly forcing quiet a few turnovers and turning into the single best unit on the team.

S Earl Thomas: 22.5 tackles, 2.0 TFL/sacks, 5 INT, 1 FF, 9 PBR
CB Curtis Brown: 21.5 tackles, 1 FF, 10 PBR
CB Aaron Williams: 19.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QBH, 2 PBR
S Blake Gideon: 19.5 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBR
CB Chykie Brown: 15.0 tackles, 1.0 TFL/sacks, 1 FF, 1 QBH, 7 PBR

When you've got such a good defensive line and scary front-seven athletes, your secondary is almost guaranteed to look good as well--QBs will be making more hurried throws, RBs won't be breaking wide open into the secondary, etc. That said, it really is starting to appear that the Longhorns secondary that was a liability a couple of years ago has rounded into a helluva unit, at least in terms of playmaking ability. They rank only 26th against the pass, compared to Missouri's 15th-ranked pass defense, but they have also intercepted ten passes, eight more than Missouri. In a game which Missouri cannot win without winning the turnover battle, it does appear that Texas has the edge here.

Special Teams

Hunter Lawrence wasn't asked to do a ton last year--less than one FG attempt per game--but he did well in the limited opportunities, missing just two kicks all year. He and John Gold form a pretty damn solid kicking unit, even if neither was needed much in 2008. Jordan Shipley had a clutch kickoff return touchdown against Oklahoma, just as it looked like OU was about seize control of the game (UT had just gone down 14-3 when he broke loose), but the rest of the year he was only solid at KR's, not spectacular. Same with punt returns, where he ripped off a 45-yard touchdown in one return and managed only 19 yards in five others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Malcolm Williams become a force in kickoff returns, but overall this is a solid unit either way. Not as good as OSU's, but definitely in the upper half of the Big 12.

Punt Returns Rank: 15th (Jordan Shipley: 16 returns, 16.4 average, 2 TD)
Net Punting Rank: 74th (Justin Tucker: 21 returns, 39.5 average)
Kickoff Returns Rank: 2nd (D.J. Monroe: 9 returns, 42.7 average, 2 TD)
Opponents' Kickoff Returns Rank: 77th (22.1 yards/return)

Field Goals: 12-for-14 (Hunter Lawrence)
PATs: 30-for-31

Hunter Lawrence is a strong kicker, and Justin Tucker is a decent enough punter, but they don't really matter. For Missouri to win, they will also have to win the special teams battle, and that is a tall task thanks to UT's return game, which has produced four return touchdowns in six games. Jordan Shipley's punt return TD against Texas Tech gave the Longhorns some breathing room while their offense struggled, and Texas only led Colorado by ten when another Shipley return iced the game away. Knowing Missouri's past strategies against strong kick returners, expect a lot of short, pop-up kicks. Hopefully Tanner Mills is pretty good at them...assuming Missouri has quite a few opportunities to kick off, ahem. And after a down week in Stillwater, Jake Harry IV will need to go back to being Missouri's secret weapon. His rugby kicks and epic rolls have been key to Missouri winning field position battles this year, and while there's no way Missouri intentionally kicks directly to Shipley, the rolls still have to go in our favor...they had all year until the OSU game.

---

Three Keys to the Game

The Bomb

Missouri has enough to worry about already--they simply must prevent big plays on defense. Texas hasn't generated too many of them this year, and they are still leading the country in scoring offense (granted, a lot of that has come against bad defenses, and a lot of points have been scored via the return game, but still). If Malcolm Williams catches a bomb, or if Fozzy Whittaker suddenly lives up to the hype and love Burnt Orange Nation has showered upon him for a while now, Missouri is dead meat. Despite all I said above about how the front seven must perform, really the safeties--Jasper Simmons, Kenji Jackson, Jarrell Harrison, Hardy Ricks--could be the most important players on the field for Mizzou on Saturday.

First-and-10

I cannot emphasize enough how important it is for the Missouri offense to generate yardage on first downs, and for the Missouri defense to prevent them. That's it. Chart the first downs on Saturday night--whoever does better will win the game.

The Turnover

Again, not rocket science. Missouri outgained Oklahoma State last week, in terms of both yards and EqPts. And yet they lost by a comfortable margin because of the -4 turnover differential and -19.4 turnover points margin. Colt McCoy has proven willing to throw at least a pick or two, and while I love how well this defense has reacted to the play at hand and prevented big plays, you do figure they might have to both take some risks to force some turnovers. Overall, despite McCoy's seven picks, Texas is still +5 on the year in turnover margin. Missouri is -2. They will need to flip that around to have a chance. Sean Weatherspoon was Missouri's "Go force a turnover" guy last year, and now would be a pretty good time to make his presence felt, no?

Prediction

As I've mentioned multiple times this week, the monsoon game seems to have skewed both Missouri's and Nebraska's numbers, and due to that, the numbers project a nailbiter, Texas by 0.3. Being that I always go with the numbers, we'll say that means Texas 24, Missouri 23. That said, I'm pretty queasy about that. There is absolutely a path toward Mizzou winning this game--protect the ball and pick off a couple of passes, move the ball on first down (via air or ground, don't care which), punt well, tackle well, don't get burned deep. It's the recipe for winning any game, really, but with Blaine Gabbert's ankle not at 100%, and with Missouri's most-defined weakness (offensive line) meshing perfectly with Texas' biggest strength (defensive line), there's plenty of reason for pessimism here.

Texas is far from unbeatable--in my opinion, they're pretty far from the team they were just last year. But in a graduation- and injury-depleted Big 12, the road ahead of them is still quite maneuverable, and if Missouri or Oklahoma State doesn't knock them off, I don't know who will. I've been pretty down about Missouri's chances in this game--like I've said before, my main goals here are to not get anybody else hurt and make sure all the moving pieces start to come together for a five-game winning streak after this game--but this is college football, and anything can happen. Missouri is a fast, strong, super-young team, and teams like that experience pretty disparate highs and lows. Hit a high-note on Saturday night, and they can claim Gary Pinkel's first win over OU or Texas. If not, make sure not to lose your spot on the bandwagon. It will start filling up again when the team gets hot later on.

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:47:15 -0000

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(AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Is this year Pasadena or bust --unless you are College Football News who predicts three loses-- for the Texas Longhorns, because with some erie similarities from the 2005 season to the 2009 season. The Horns are coming a good season, but there was controverisy over the Big XII tie breaker rules the league has that gave Oklahoma the nod over Texas even though the Longhorns won the head to head matchup. During the offseason no changes were made to that rule.

The offense which was amazing last year which was 5th nationally, but was third in the Big XII by averaging just over 42.2 points per game which was .2 more then Missouri. The offense returns eight starters with big losses come from the departures in RB Chris Ogbonnava, WR Quan Cosby,RG Cedric Dockery so the offense should stil be fine. WR Cosby was the team leader with 92 receptions and since Texas just reloads however those receptions will not be that easy to replace.

When looking for replacements to take over Cosby's spot on the field looks to be speedster James Kirkendoll, but also look out for junior Brandon Collins who has been praised by QB Colt McCoy. Both of these receivers are top notch recruits and Collins was a four star from the 2006 class while Kirkendoll was a four star from the 2007 class.

The tight end might be scrapped entirely after injuries have decimated the top few candidates to start, and it is anyones guess if or who Mack Brown will stick at that spot.

Obviously the quarterback situation is great for Texas as they have Heisman Trophy runner-up in Colt McCoy. McCoy did it all for Texas which included a mind boggling 76.7 percent completion percantage as well as averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. Not exactly sure who McCoy can improve off those numbers, or even staying in the 70 percentage.

McCoy is poised to challenge for the Heisman and is most likely to win it in 2009. The reasoning because the Heisman voters are most likely not to vote for a back-to-back winner --even though Tim Tebow did receive the most first place votes last year-- which almost certainly eliminates Bradford; not because of skill but because of voters tendancy. With all the hype surrounding "The Choosen One" and the Gators it will be hard to provide a good enough season where anything less then a BCS title is considered a failure.

When I mean most likely to win it does not constitute as a guarantee, but if Texas wins the Big XII--which means the 'Horns will be in Pasadena for the BCS title game-- and is anywhere close to his 2008 numbers he will be striking the pose in New York.

The only downside to McCoy and the Texas offense is the running game, because Texas did not have a premire back in 2008 and the team was lead in rushing by Colt McCoy with 561 yards and carries with 136 attempts. Getting running yards was not the problem, but Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis strayed from the run and leaned much more on Colt McMoy and the pasing game. The 2009 Longhorns must find a balance and incorrporate the run more, so that the team can be more balanced which could provide for big plays in the passing game.

The offensive line is very experienced with 91 career starts but the line was a much better passing line then a run block offensive line. Which is another reason why the team trended toward more passing plays then running plays. Also, consider that Texas nearly exclusively is in the shot gun formation which can hinder running plays by taking too long to get to the line of scrimmage. The running backs themselves will be used in a roation or situational role with Vondrell McGee the likely starter, then there is Fozzy Whittaker who is the most versitale of the backs, and then Cody Johnson who wll be the short yardage specialist.

Defensively well it is the Big XII which is why conferene stats are more of a tool to use when measuring success then national defensive rankings. The rush defense was amazing which was first in the Big XII by giving up only 83.54 yards per game, and even more impressive was the 3.05 allowed per rush; oh also the 'Horns just happened to be third nationally as well in total rushing yards allowed. There is concern because they lost three key defensive line man to the NFL In DT Roy MIller, DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton, so the rush defense could take a hit.

The pass defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed, which normally would be sound for alarm, however defensive passing yards are misleading when it comes to good teams. Any time Texas was up by 8 or more points the Longhorns were ninth in the Big XII in passing yards.

The Horns have playmakers in the secondaery with Earl Thomas, Aaron Williams, and Chykie Brown then there are a few more who could start for nearly any team in the country, so look for them to make big plays on defense.

The season really comes down to two games that could be a loss and then a third that has the potential to be a loss, and all three are in a row. There is always the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma then the potential trap game at Missouri, and then legitimate threat Oklahoma State which is also on the road.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns Team Capsule

Peter Bean — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:02:25 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Before he hands Will Muschamp the keys to the machine, Mack Brown wants another national title at Texas.

Browse more photos »

The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Texas team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece.

When Texas has the ball: Texas returns 8 starters (Lost: RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, RG Cedric Dockery) from an offense a year ago that averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play. The name everyone knows is ~~deserving~~ Heisman ~~winner~~ runner-up Colt McCoy, who led the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards in 2008. He also did a little passing: Following an up-and-down sophomore season, McCoy transformed into a robot last season, setting the single-season NCAA record for completion percentage in a season (76.7%), throwing a school record 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. If there's a legitimate critique of last year's outstanding offense, it would have to be the razor thin margins on which the Longhorns relied; looking forward to this fall, Texas would like to rely less on McCoy being a superhuman by bolstering the running game and finding more big plays.

The running game: Texas wasn't a poor rushing team a year ago, but the rushing attack was inconsistent and prone to disappear, necessitating McCoy's otherworldly performances to keep the engine humming. The offensive line is experienced, if not spectacular, returning four starters (LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Charlie Tanner, C Chris Hall, and RT Kyle Hix) who, combined with RG Michael Huey (3 starts in '08) enter the fall with 90 career starts between them. Both starting tackles are excellent in pass protection, but the question for this line will be their ability to create running room in the rushing offense. To that end, Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis appears committed to introducing more plays under center and more man blocking, but for the offense to truly reach its fullest potential, the unit will need to open holes in the running game when McCoy is in its favored 11-personnel, with McCoy in the shotgun, flanked by a tailback. Like last year, a triumvirate of tailbacks will rotate situationally, with Vondrell McGee the likely nominal starter, Fozzy Whittaker the do-it-all Ogbonnaya role, and Cody Johnson the short yardage specialist.

The passing game: Replacing departed WR Quan Cosby won't exactly be a cinch, but if Texas fails to do so, an impressive number of promising candidates would have to fail. In the spring, the speedy James Kirkendoll (now also having a great fall camp) got the starting nod at the Sub-B wideout position formerly occupied by Cosby, but fans are watching fellow junior Brandon Collins closely as well, particularly after Colt McCoy commented at Big 12 media days that Collins was poised to break out for a tremendous season. Behind those two, a small army of unproven young talents will compete for playing time, among them converted QB John Chiles, as well as the speedy DeSean Hales (RS-Fr), DJ Monroe (RS-Fr) and Marquise Goodwin (True Freshman). Returning to man the flanker position is The Roommate, Jordan Shipley, a 1000-yard receiver in 2008 with 11 touchdowns. On the outside, Texas expects big things from third-year sophomore Malcolm Williams, whose football skills are catching up to his outrageous athletic talent. (Expecting an update on the tight end position? It's cursed, thank you very little; we decline to name names.)

When opponents have the ball: If Texas is on your television screen on January 7th in Pasadena, this unit will be the reason. Don't get us wrong: Colt McCoy deserves all the attention and accolades, but it's the potential of this defensive unit that makes us most confident in Texas' chances to roll through the conference unblemished.

Rush defense: The Longhorns held opponents to a paltry 3.05 yards per rushing attempt last season, but they lose three starters -- DT Roy Miller and DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton -- to the NFL. Texas faces serious questions about the viability of the DT position in particular this fall, with only the exceptional Lamarr Houston returning. Vying for viability alongside him will be the senior situation space eater Ben Alexander, unproven sophomore Kheeston Randall, and recently converted offensive lineman Tray Allen. None of them needs to be spectacular, but at least one needs to prove himself capable of solid, block-eating play for 30-35 snaps a game. The rest of the work can be done by the talented, probably underrated, group of defensive ends and linebackers who will rotate heavily to keep everyone fresh. Everyone knows about Sergio Kindle, but by November, expect ends Eddie Jones and Sam Acho to be names every Big 12 quarterback knows as well. As for the linebackers, Texas has four players we absolutely love ready to lead what will prove to be the best tackling team in the conference: Rod Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Keenan Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho,

Pass defense: Two words come to mind: Un. Fair. The secondary may not prove as statistically dominant as Will Muschamp's 2003 title-winning LSU squad (too much help in run support for that, we suspect), but they'll make just as many big plays, and give top receivers in the conference more than a few forgettable nights. Both Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams look like First Team Big 12-level performers, Chykie Brown's not far behind, and Blake Gideon, Christian Scott, Curtis Brown, and Deon Beasley would comfortably start for at least 9 schools in the conference. This group is damn good.

The schedule: You could call it a two-game schedule (vs OU in Dallas, at Oklahoma State) and wouldn't draw much argument from the gallery. Beyond those two monsters, Texas's next three toughest tests all come at home: Texas Tech, Colorado, and Kansas. A road trip to Missouri on their homecoming might be a potential trap game (sandwiched between the two Oklahomas), but with a new quarterback and a questionable defensive line and secondary, an upset would be truly stunning. As for the non-conference schedule... well... maybe Texas just wanted to welcome home Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's it.

The outlook: Anything short of a 12-0 trip to the Rose Bowl will disappoint Texas fans, and for good reason. The talent cycle hits a peak this year, there's experience, skill talent, depth, and a favorable schedule. And some bitterness, too. Texas rightly felt hosed by the BCS system last season and will approach this season with a sense of focus, urgency, and more than a little hostility. That's a good thing for a program under Mack Brown that struggles when it's comfortable. All eyes on Dallas, then, for one of the biggest regular season football games of the last decade. We predict a Texas win and, two months later, a return trip to Vince Young Stadium West.

Poll

Predict Texas' losses in 2009.

None -- See you in Pasadena.

554 votes

1 -- Oklahoma

35 votes

1 -- Oklahoma State

64 votes

1 -- Other

18 votes

2 -- OU and Oklahoma State

19 votes

2 -- Other

7 votes

3 or more

1 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Wrapping up the Rams 2009 draft

VanRam — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:29:02 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

8 months ago: Baylor's Jason Smith gestures after he was selected as the second overall pick by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall, Saturday, April 25, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

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The draft is over for the Rams, seven rounds, seven picks. They addressed some needs with good players at high picks, and took a few raw prospects to finish it out. We'll spend more time parsing the results down the road, by days and years. My biggest takeaway is that they strengthened both the offensive and the defensive lines, a big need.

The high picks, though not necessarily exciting and leaving some room for debate, filled huge holes on the Rams starting roster with players that are widely expected to be instant contributors and grow into core veterans.

The first three rounds went like this, with comment:

R1, #2 - OT Jason Smith: There's some grumbling about this one, with fans divided between OT, Curry and Sanchez. Ultimately, though, given the glaring weakness that the Rams line has been and a key cog available at this spot, that grades out at that spot (in this draft), this pick made sense. Smith and Jason Brown will be the leaders of this young unit, holding their fellow linemen accountable for their play and giving their best on every down, on that there doesn't seem to be much room for argument. Smith might have to start on the right side, a la Jordan Gross in Carolina, to hone his trade, but he could just as easily top Barron for the LT job.

R2, #35 - MLB James Launinaitis: Maualuga had his fans with this pick, but the Rams went with the three-time (or two?) All American from Ohio State, and now have a guy who can instantly contribute, filling gaps, flowing to the ball and making their run defense better. He's also good in coverage, which will help the backfield.

R3, #66 - CB Bradley Fletcher: This pick turned some heads. I was kind of hoping for D.J. Moore here, but the new direction of the Rams defense calls for physical, aggressive corners...a good quality to have in a division featuring some big receivers. The story from inside the war room is that the Rams think Fletcher is ahead of where Justin King was when they drafted him last year, and King was one of camp's surprises until a toe injury sent him to IR for the year. Could we see him at nickel some this year? With his skills, he's an interesting player for blitz packages too.

R4, #103 - DT Dorell Scott: Besides a MLB, the Rams defense needed a big body tackle to play at the nose position. At 312 lbs, Scott can still add 10-15 lbs, which will help him tie-up double blockers. This is something the front four needs, badly, and it allows Carriker (who really needs to have a good season) to line up over a single guard and moves Clifton Ryan out of the NT position and back to an UT role. Scott dropped on draft boards with a slow start to his senior season, but the entire Clemson team struggled, resulting in a coaching change that brought out the player who really shined in his second and third seasons. This is a position that they didn't need to draft early on, and Scott should be able to be part of the rotation at DT right away. I like this pick, and along with Laurinaitis, it really should solidify the front seven.

And here's where a theme develops...the Rams start taking some raw prospects that need a little bit of refining to be a complete player. That's what you want in these rounds, where you can't count on getting ready-made starters to fill needs.

R5, #160 - WR Brooks Foster: What the Rams really need at WR is a true #1, a dynamic playmaker. Those guys were gone by the time their second round pick rolled around (I think they needed a MLB more). Foster's a fine pick for the 5th round, where you're getting guys that you hope can develop, at least to provide depth. Foster is physical and joins the ranks of the Rams possession receivers, like Burton, Robinson, Stanley, etc. Like I said before, I think they'll still need to add an experienced WR before the season, and weight their options in free agency and the draft next year to get the kind of #1 guy they need.

R6, #196 - QB Keith Null: A little more perplexing... Why? Did the Rams really need a QB this bad? I know they're not looking for a starter in the 6th round, but they might have been able to get this guy off the street. He played under Ryan Leaf, but at least with a 6th round pick he won't achieve Leaf's notoriety. I think they got a third QB who fits their West Coast system, fits better than Berlin, probably. He's a good passer, except deep. His upside is a competent backup in an offensive system like this.

R7, #211 - RB Chris Ogbonnaya: Giving bloggers and fans a name they'll struggle with each time they try to spell it, the Rams took a RB who has skills as a runner and receiver. He just never got to show them much in Texas' offense...except against Missouri. He could be a bit better than Kenneth Darby and a make Brian Leonard expendable at some point. Change of pace back. This is a good pick for the seventh round.

So, that's the draft, solid if a little unspectacular. They solidified their offensive and defensive lines with legitimate players, and I like that. I maybe would have liked to see another LB in the later rounds...like maybe the 6th, but I don't have too many quibbles with it now.

Anatomy of a Spread Linebacker

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:06:21 -0000

There's a reason the Longhorns took Garland linebacker Tevin Jackson early in the 2010 recruiting process - he was the linebacker in the state of Texas with the best combination of size, speed, and striking ability in a deep linebacker class. In football, there will always be a need for linebackers with Jackson's skill set.

The other top linebackers, Corey Nelson and Aaron Benson, are both smaller, faster linebackers more highly rated than Jackson (for now, at least), with Nelson in particular looking physically more like a safety than a linebacker as a junior.

Is that a problem? Should Nelson or Benson be punished for not fitting cleanly into the traditional stereotype of their positions? In a word - no. Throw out the old prototype of big linebackers with two-gap responsibility asked to take on fullbacks in the hole - there's a new sheriff (or pirate, if you prefer) in town who likes playing in the wide-open places on the field.

The days of three linebackers on the field at the same time in the Big 12 are dead for the moment. Mark Mangino said so explicitly at the beginning of Kansas spring practice:

Probably 80 percent of the time, we're playing with two linebackers and an extra safety. What we feel like is we're going to have a guy who's a third linebacker, but he's mainly going to be a safety type-of-guy that can play in space.

It's a big change for a Kansas team that was known for having the type of big, slow linebackers that epitomized an era now fading into the past.

It's a necessary adjustment when facing offenses playing three or more receivers, as offenses can simply key on the number of linebackers and run against a 4-2 front or pass against a 4-3 front. The spread linebacker/safety hybrid keeps the defense from calling plays simply based on the defensive formation.

The other adjustment comes in the pre-snap depth of the linebackers against the spread. Colorado linebackers coach Brian Cabral, a fixture at the school since CU's Big 8 days, has been at the forefront of adjustments to combat the spread. Before there was spread linebacker extraordinaire Travis Lewis at Oklahoma, there was Jordan Dizon at Colorado - a smaller linebacker, but fast enough to play in space dropping into coverage or defending the run game from sideline to sideline. The days of 240-pound linebackers are mostly gone. Since few teams run the I formation, linebackers don't have to physically match up against fullbacks, now an anachronism; instead, they have to navigate through traffic pursuing plays sideways, as many one-back spread teams run a zone-blocking scheme, infamous in Texas circles for only moving horizontally.

Cabral lines up his ‘backers six or seven yards off the line of scrimmage, one or two yards farther back than most defensive coaches. The adjustment forces lineman in the zone scheme to cover more ground before they can attempt to block a linebacker, who is smaller, faster, and more elusive than the hole-plugging, plodding middle linebackers of former days. As dedfischer points out:

Since running is one thing they typically do well, Cabral will ask his guys to hang tight in the middle of the field until the play crosses their face, which allows them to play optimal inside-out football at linebacker.

Having more time to read and react keeps the linebackers from biting on play-action passes or misdirection running plays like counters or reverses, taking away the constraint plays offenses use against over-aggressive or over-pursuing defenses.

One element that dedfischer doesn't mention in his otherwise excellent post is that the alignment depth of the linebackers also allows another step or two when matched up against a tight end or receiver in the slot, helping cover up any deficiencies in quickly getting into their backpedal or a lack of hip flexibility in turning and running, though both of those traits are almost necessary for a spread linebacker in the same way that they are of tantamount importance for safeties and cornerbacks.

In that way, spread linebackers are often essentially over-sized safeties - OU's Roy Williams, a biscuit short of a linebacker in the NFL for the last several years, would now be a spread linebacker in college. He can't cover NFL receivers, but he probably could have handled college tight ends. Former Missouri safety William Moore is another example - a big, physical safety capable of playing the hybrid safety/linebacker role.

Perhaps the best example, however, of the new spread linebacker is OU's Travis Lewis. A 6-2, 230-pound linebacker with the speed of a safety (Rivals lists his 40 time as 4.34), Lewis racked up 19 tackles against Texas in 2008, ranging from sideline-to-sideline and nearly single-handedly stopping the Longhorn running game. It wasn't until late in the game when a Texas offensive lineman finally got to the second level and blocked Lewis that the Longhorns were able to break a big run, in this case Chris Ogbonnaya's game-sealing rush. A player who would have lined up at safety in another era, Lewis isn't a player capable of taking on and shedding offensive lineman, but his incredible quickness advantage keeps lineman from getting their hands on him the great majority of the time.

At Texas, the closest player to a pure spread linebacker the Longhorns have is 2009 commit Patrick Nkwopara, the undersized Nigerian with great speed. Perhaps the first player to receive the official stamp of approval from Will Muschamp, Nkwopara is also a guy who needs to play in space, of which there is plenty when attempting to defend Big 12 offenses, while providing the flexibility to keep Muschamp from having to make the choice about playing with three linebackers or going to a nickel defense.

Replacing OG, Third-Down Back Extraordinaire, Part II -- The Candidates

GhostofBigRoy — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 16:23:52 -0000

Each of the three returning Longhorn running backs competing for the starting job struggled in at least one of the aspects last season in which OG excelled -- scheme versatility, vision, hands, and blitz pick up. McGee and Whittaker struggled picking up blitzes. McGee and Johnson struggled catching the ball out of the backfield, with neither one a threat when split wide were the offense to go to an empty backfield.

Trailing Johnson and McGee on the depth chart, Whittaker may be forced into the role of third-down back out of sheer necessity, but his size will always limit his ability to pick up blitzes -- the main concern of the offensive coaching staff and a large enough concern within the offense that it may keep Whittaker off the field in third-down situations. He did, however, demonstrate his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, with 10 catches on the year for 51 yards -- not big plays, but catching check downs are essentially running plays in the Texas offense.

That brings us to Tre' Newton. Ah, yes, Tre' Newton. Not known for his speed, Newton nevertheless impressed coaches during bowl workouts with his ability to understand the requirements of a running back in the spread scheme, having significant experience in the Southlake Carroll spread in high school. As such, Newton understands how to pick up blitzes and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. The question is how well Newton can run the ball. When the Longhorns accelerated their tempo in the Fiesta Bowl, it was with Chris Ogbonnaya in the game, allowing Texas to go empty if necessary, flexibility that Newton certainly allows. However, when accelerating the tempo to keep the defense from substituting, scheme versatility becomes the main criteria and it isn't clear if Newton can effectively run the ball in those situations. A true third-down back, on the other hand, will rarely be asked to run the football, making Newton a serious candidate.

Newton doesn't possess the bruising running of Cody Johnson, the speed/power combination of Vondrell McGee, or the speed of Fozzy Whittaker, but he could play the same situational role third-down role that Chris Obgonnaya was expected to fill before showing some ability as an every-down back. Newton will likely provide the most value by showing capability in picking up the blitz when opposing teams attempt to tee off on Colt McCoy, as they did often last season.

Just as 11 personnel forces defenses to make a choice between stopping the running game with three linebackers or stopping the passing game with five defensive backs, the schematically versatile Ogbonnaya, combined with the increased tempo and lack of substitutions, forced the defense to make a strategic choice as soon as the Longhorns started a drive, a strategic coach in terms of personnel that the defensive coordinator would have to live with as long as the Longhorns went no-huddle and didn't substitute.

Newton may fit into the offense by providing the same versatility as Obgonnaya when the Longhorns want to increase tempo without worrying about teams blitzing to slow them down, in fact, Newton may provide more scheme versatility than any other running back on the roster. That doesn't mean that he's a threat to win the starting job, but it does mean that he could be a situational player and contribute in a valuable role. Given his versatility, he is less likely to transfer than a player like Jeremy Hills, who doesn't have the same versatile skill set and could become a victim of the number's game at the position.

Another option, according to word emerging from the program, is that fullback Antwan Cobb could fill in as the third-down back. Cobb doesn't have much of a track record to indicate his ability to fill that role, but he did score the first touchdown of the season against Arkansas State in 2007 after catching a wheel route out of the backfield, perhaps the most important route for backs to run in the Greg Davis offense. With his background as a fullback, Cobb would seem to have the blocking ability that is crucial in third-down situations when opposing teams like to blitz and may provide the scheme versatility demanded when the Longhorns want to split him out as a receiver. Like Newton, the biggest concern for Cobb is his ability to run the ball in an accelerated tempo situation.

Ultimately, the Longhorns may not discover their third-down back until the conference season approaches. With little resistance expected even from Texas Tech, finding a solution to the issue isn't the primary concern on offense -- finding a starting running back is more important. Right now, it looks like Cobb holds the edge over Tre' Newton, but Fozzy Whittaker could become a factor in the equation if he gains enough strength during the off season to match up physically with blitzing linebackers and safeties, which seems the least likely outcome.

Replacing OG, Third-Down Back Extraordinaire, Part I -- The Requirements

GhostofBigRoy — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:29:11 -0000

Scheme versatility

Will Muschamp can probably be credited with introducing the phrase "being multiple," into the Longhorn football lexicon. Clearly, it's not an idea limited to Muschamp, or even the defensive side of the ball. Every offense also longs to be multiple. To that end, you could almost say that Greg Davis obsesses about being multiple, disliking bootleg plays because they eliminate one-third of the field and preferring to stay almost exclusively with his base 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). Of course, the zone running plays Texas runs provide an argument against the multiplicity of the scheme, but that's a subject for another time.

The point in all this is that Chris Ogbonnaya provided Greg Davis with incredible scheme versatility - the ability to be multiple, catching the ball out of the backfield, picking up blitzes, even running the football occasionally. When the Longhorns went to their empty backfield look, it was almost always with Ogbonnaya split out wide as a receiver. It wasn't because Ogbonnaya possessed superior skills as a receiver when compared with actual receivers on the team; it was that the substitution patterns didn't dictate an empty backfield, as bringing in five wide receivers would. The Longhorns could still run the football with OG in that personnel grouping.

Blitz pick up

The Longhorn coaching staff preaches blitz pick up so mightily that it almost seems overemphasized. It isn't -- not when the most valuable commodity on the team is the quarterback. Protecting Colt McCoy must happen at all costs -- if McCoy goes down as he did in his freshman season, any chance at a national championship in 2009 goes down with him. Reading blitzes requires depth of knowledge, as the running back must understand the line calls from the center, while also reading the defense himself to take note of any linebackers or safeties creeping up to the line of scrimmage, indicating a possible blitz. Past the mental aspect, the running back must also have the physical tools to block an opposing linebacker -- the area Longhorn coaches are most concerned with when discussing Fozzy Whittaker, who can read blitzes well, but struggles physically matching up against college linebackies.

Hands

Coming out of the backfield, the Texas offense asks the running back to run two primary routes. Ogbonnaya's best route was the wheel route out of the backfield, taking advantage of linebackers taking a poor angle into the flat. Like the ability to plant and cut required in the zone scheme, the wheel route also requires precision, with a quick and explosive cut up field necessary when turning the corner of the wheel.

The point about hands comes into play with the next route, a basic hitch in the middle of the field. The middle of the field is the most dangerous area in which to throw the ball, as a tipped pass will often end up in the hands of a waiting linebacker or safety. A running back catching a pass on that route will often pay dearly for the four-yard gain, susceptible to middle linebackers running downhill and laying crunching hits. Despite the physical price, the running back must sacrifice their body to make the catch, the result of the aforementioned danger inherent in a tipped pass.

Vision

The zone-blocking scheme absolutely demands two attributes from the running backs employed in it -- vision and "one-cut ability." Vision is the most important, since cut-back lanes often open on the back side of plays and because the zone scheme doesn't pre-designate where the hole will open. Instead, the running back must move horizontally down the line of scrimmage, waiting for crease to present itself, leading to the next attribute. The zone scheme does not suffer running backs preferring to stand and juke defenders in the backfield. Instead, the running back must move laterally searching for a hole to develop, then immediately plant and cut upfield.

Morning Coffee Goes Pro

GhostofBigRoy — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:58:46 -0000

Texas Pro Day stocks. The Longhorns held their annual Pro Day for scouts ($) (and Packers GM Ted Thompson) on Wednesday, an important day for players looking to improve on their NFL Combine results (Ryan Palmer) or players who weren't invited to the Combine (Henry Melton).

Stock Rising: Henry Melton. The former Texas running back probably worked his way into the top half of the NFL Draft (fourth or fifth round) with his extremely impressive showing at the Texas Pro Day -- perhaps not the most impressive of the group, as Roy Miller and Brian Orakpo both allayed concerns, but Melton was the player who made himself the most money, running a 4.58 40 at 268 pounds (instead of the normal 225) and posting a 36.5-inch vertical. That raw athleticism, combined with his lack of experience at the defensive end position gives Melton a considerable amount of potential. As HenryJames notes, that 40 time makes Melton faster than the OU safeties.
Stock Rising: Quan Cosby. Though Cosby stuck with 4.57 40 from the Combine, he did perform extremely well in the passing drills, once regaining his feet to make a catch that IT's Ross Lucksinger compared to the David Thomas catch in the Rose Bowl. With his ability to use his body to shield defenders, his amazing hands, and leaping ability, Cosby won't be kept out of the league by his size, but the lack of upside will probably hurt him, as what you see is what you get with the "elderly" Mart product and former minor league baseball player.
Stock Rising: Roy Miller. Height has always been the concerns pro scouts have about Miller, but he did answer the questions he could -- running a 4.8 40 after a 4.98 at the Combine, while still adding 23 pounds since the end of the football season. His strength and first step helped Miller solidified his position in the middle rounds.
Stock Holding: Brian Orakpo. There wasn't much to prove for Rak that he didn't at the NFL Combine, considering his 4.7 40, 11-foot broad jump, and 31 reps at 261 pounds. Orakpo stuck with those numbers, but showed well in position drills and proved the health of his knees, essentially answering all the questions scouts had about him and making him a top-10 lock come April and possibly as high as five, a pick held by the Cleveland Browns, who play a 3-4 defense.
Stock Holding: Chris Ogbonnaya. OG ran a predictably mediocre 4.65 at the Combine and stuck with that number and worked at the positions he played at Texas (wide receiver, running back, and fullback). His versatility may land him a chance at the next level in the role he excelled at during his last season at Texas -- third-down specialist. He's probably a free agent pick up.
Stock Holding: Rashad Bobino. Everyone's least favorite linebacker (at least after Scott Derry and Robert Killebrew left) ran the slow 40 expected of him -- 4.7, but managed to turn in a remarkable 4.18 shuttle time that would have been second-best among linebackers at the NFL Combine. Adding his kamikaze tendencies and slow straight-line speed to his lack of height essentially eliminates him from NFL consideration, which isn't exactly a surprise. I would be greatly surprised if he latched on with a team even as a free agent. But I guess he bled for the program and stuff, so there's that.
Stock Holding: Ryan Palmer. Like Roy Miller, Palmer couldn't answer his biggest question mark -- size. At only 5-8, it doesn't mater much that Palmer ran a 4.53 40, much better than his 4.62 at the Combine, or that he can jump 36.5 inches in the air while standing still -- he's just too small. As the only thing separating him from some serious cash money, Palmer must wake up every morning and curse the cruel fate that dealt him a short deck.
Stock Falling: Aaron Lewis. For a player uninvited to the Combine and on the extreme margins of NFL talent, Aaron Lewis needed a strong performance on Wednesday. Due to hip and hamstring injuries, Lewis wasn't able to run a 40, but completed the shuttle in 4.45 seconds. Lewis will have to get healthy and make a strong impression at tryouts after the draft to make an NFL roster.
Post-college attendees. Texas players who completed their eligibility in the fall weren't the only participants on Wednesday. Former walk-on and track athlete Joe Davis worked out at wide receiver, perhaps giving himself a shot at landing a free agent opportunity with his 6-5 frame , while Eric Hall and former Texas receiver Myron Hardy worked out as well. Last year former Texas quarterback James Brown was pulled from the crowd to throw to the receivers, but this year it was native Texan and former Iowa quarterback Drew Tate and Austin resident Jeff Blake who did the honors.

D-Money names UT the favorite. Forth Worth Dunbar receiver Darius White, aka D-Money, currently has a27 offers from the best programs in the country, but there is one that stands above the rest ($) -- Texas. An Austin trip with his mom and brothers is in store for the spring game, while White says that his mom is advising him to take his time with the process. Considering the statements White made in the fall sounding like he was a lock to commit early, the trip seems to be about establishing a comfort level with the program for his mother, much like Reggie Wilson's trip last week that culminated in news of commitment shortly thereafter. If White's mother gives her stamp of approval at the spring game, White could be the 22nd commitment in the class, as many BONizens believe.

Mack Brown speaks. In his first press conference since before Spring Break, Mack Brown spoke about his team and the work left to be done.

Brown confirmed that DJ Grant did sprain his ankle, but disagreed with trainer Kenny Boyd's assessment that Grant would not participate in the remainder of spring practice, with Brown calling him day-to-day.
After horrible kick coverage last season, Brown says they are working harder on that than they have before.
Fozzy Whittaker is quickly developing a reputation as injury-prone and "tweaked" his ankle during the first part of spring practice.
In other injury notes, early enrollee defensive end Dominique Jones won't practice this spring, but fellow early enrollee Kenny Vaccaro is participating in individual workouts.
The coaches are no longer worried about the weight of 250-pound Cody Johnson, instead focusing on his body fat percentage, with Brown commenting that the staff doesn't want him weak from only eating salads.
Perhaps the most interesting news is that Ben Alexander has lost weight and is playing impressively. Of course, that leads to speculation that Alexander has looked good because Kheeston Randall hasn't, but it would greatly help the defensive tackle rotation if Alexander could have a breakout senior season, particularly against a team like Oklahoma State that runs the ball well.

Matthews down to two. Good news for Longhorn fans on Wednesday, as offensive lineman Jake Matthews told Burnt Orange Beat that he narrowed his list to two schools ($): Texas and Texas A&M. He's planning on visiting both schools soon, though he hasn't scheduled a visit to Texas as he has with the Aggies, with whom he has a higher level of comfort, partly due to his brother's attendance. Seemingly tired of the process, Matthews says that he will likely commit before having a chance to visit OU or USC, who haven't been completely eliminated, it seems.

Matthews will try to make it down to Texas in an effort to develop a higher level of comfort, likely for a practice or the spring game, which will be an extremely important visit. It doesn't seem like recruits have had problems getting comfortable in Austin or with the Texas coaching staff, so expect Texas to close the gap with the Aggies when Matthews does take his visit.

Wilson speaks, articulately. There might not be a Texas recruit in the history of the program with as interesting a story as Haltom defensive end Reggie Wilson. On Tuesday, at a news conference held in his school library, Wilson made the official announcement of his commitment to Texas. Wilson's maturity and perspective have always shown through in his previous interviews, but his new conference and appearance on "The Drive" clearly demonstrated how remarkably articulate he is ($) for a young man. Wilson sounded off on a number of topics during his interview, including the impact his trip to campus made on his family:

When we got on the campus my mom and dad and brother fell in love with the campus. And the things they offer in the business school and me telling my dad I wanted to major in business. Them being a top five business school in the country and all those things. My mom and my brothers were like yeah I think this is the right school for you.

For Wilson and his family, the considerations went beyond the campus or facilities -- older brother Winston wanted to know what would happen if Reggie got injured:

A major concern was that if he gets out of here and he's in Austin and playing football and he gets a season ending injury, what happens to his scholarship? That was basically what our concern was. And we were told 'Look if Reggie commits to us now, we guarantee him four years of academic scholarship. It's there. The athletic scholarship is there and it's going to be there. We are not going to take it from him.' So basically that was the biggest concern. My parents were concerned about that and I was concerned about that. So it was a snap of a finger to give them a commitment because they satisfactorily answered all of the questions we had.

A concern with Wilson talking about moving back to the Ivory Coast after his football career is that he might leave early for the NFL to have money to send back more quickly. Wilson tried to allay those concerns on Tuesday:

Some players decide to go to the NFL but I'm not one of those people who are going to the NFL [early]. I'm going to go the four years to get my degree. That's the plan I have and I'm not going to change it. You all can look forward to me playing four years of football there.

Finally, Wilson gave insight into the way that Texas coaches deal with blue-chip talent, developing personal relations that may last past the recruiting process, even if the player attends another school:

They're great people, I felt comfortable with them - coach Giles, coach Tolly, every one of them. I feel those are people who are going to be there for me regardless of football, football being there or not. And that's what really drew me closer to them.

Coach Tolly was the main one who got my attention. This is one thing coach Tolly told me, this is the main thing that got my attention, 'If you come to the University or if you don't come here I'll always be your biggest fan.' That really touched me to know that he liked me as a person and not just because I was a top recruit in the state of Texas or the nation, but he liked me as an individual.

Wilson will certainly represent the University of Texas in the best possible way and it will be interesting to hear more interviews with him later, though Mack Brown may well indoctrinate him before anything interesting comes out of his mouth while at Texas.