SB Nation - Quan Cosby

A Time to Celebrate, A Time to Reflect

GhostofBigRoy — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:24:57 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Longhorns may have needed a few lucky breaks to overcome the Cornhuskers and the incomparable Ndamukong Suh and any proper analysis of the game will reveal a litany of complaints regarding every facet of the offense. But with more than a month until Texas faces off against Alabama in Pasadena, there will be plenty of time for to analyze, further analyze, and overanalyze the Nebraska game and everything related to the match up between the SEC champion and the Big 12 champion.

Today, however, is a day for celebration, for reflection. For celebrating a team that accomplished a feat that only the 2005 team accomplished under Mack Brown -- beating both Oklahoma and A&M in the same season while finishing undefeated and winning the Big 12 championship. For celebrating a team that replaced three starters along the defensive line, lost a starting linebacker to injury in the first game, and absolutely counted upon improvement from the entire secondary and role players like Sam Acho, Eddie Jones, Kheeston Randall, and Ben Alexander. For celebrating a team that replaced two starting receivers after the departure of ultra-reliable Quan Cosby and the academic ineligibility of Brandon Collins, who broke out in the final games of 2008.

For celebrating a team that discovered leaders in Sergio Kindle, Lamarr Houston, and Roddrick Muckelroy. For celebrating the effort of Marquise Goodwin against Oklahoma, Colt McCoy's year-saving tackle after his late-game interception, interceptions by Earl Thomas, Curtis Brown, and Blake Gideon against Oklahoma State, exorcising the demons of a certain Halloween past. For celebrating Hunter Lawrence, one of the greatest kickers in Texas history. For celebrating a team the lived up to the highest of standards -- perfection. Losing was not an option and this team did not lose.

Today is a day for reflection. Reflection on the how the seasons ended in 2006 and 2007, with the Longhorns dropping games to Kansas State and Texas A&M late in the season, causing both teams to lose opportunities to play for the Big 12 championship and make it to big-money BCS games. Reflection on why those teams fell apart -- mostly the complete and utter inability of those defenses to stop the passing game and imperfect defensive coordinators. Reflection on the best decision that Mack Brown has made as head coach at Texas in his hire of Will Muscahmp as defensive coordinator and the subsequent decsion to name him the next head coach of the Longhorns. Reflection on the other hard decisions that Brown made to forge this team into a champion -- bringing Major Applewhite back to Austin, moving Ken Rucker into an administrative position, instituting a higher level of accountability, looking hard at himself as a coach.

Most of all, it's a day for reflection on just how far the Longhorns have come since last season. Reflection on the feeling of complete and utter lack of control, having relinquished all power to determine the ultimate destination of the team with the last-second loss in Lubbock. Reflection on the 45-35 campaign, all the politicking and arguments about the meaning of head-to-head victories and resume ranking, planes with banners flying over stadiums, accusations of whininess directed towards a heartbroken fanbase. Reflection on the hatred of Bob Stoops after risking the health of his starters to string together 60-point scoring games. Reflection on how karma can be a bitch, can't it Big Game Bob? Reflection on how 0.128 is now in the past, just a small wound now healing, a footnote to history. Reflection on just how hard this team worked to avoid a repeat of last season, how hard they worked to keep their BCS destiny in their own hands.

Yes, today Burnt Orange Nation must celebrate and reflect, look back upon the road now traveled, full of victories and nary a defeat. The cycle is now complete -- Texas returns to the Rose Bowl four years after Vince Young stood there in confetti, having won one of the greatest college football games ever played. After the loss by Florida, the Longhorns have the nation's longest winning streak, now standing at 17 games. Not only that, but Tim Tebow's college career is all but finished, with the lasting memories an impotent speech to his defense and him crying on national television like a six-year-old Sooner fan. After a long season, Texas is undefeated and headed to Pasadena. There is time in the coming month for all the worry a Longhorn fan desires, so what is there to do today but celebrate and reflect, with a strong emphasis on the former?

Crossfire Q&A: Texas

RPT — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:00:34 -0000

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Fear this man. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The game against Texas this week has given us the chance to collaborate with one of the best sites in the business, as we welcome GhostofBigRoy from Burnt Orange Nation here to RMN to give us a better idea of what to expect from the Texas Longhorns on Saturday.

RMN: Before the season, my colleague Bill said he expected a regression from Colt McCoy's numbers, and the stats so far seem to have vindicated him in many respects. What's been the difference between Colt '08 v. Colt '09?

BON: It's not a simple answer, so I'll go ahead and divide it into a couple of points. First, the major change is defensive adjustments. OU blitzed a lot during the first half and so did Wyoming at times, but most teams have sat with two deep safeties and forced Texas to complete passes underneath.

Last season, Texas did that well and could move methodically down the field with the controlled passing game, but the failure to do so this year relates to the second factor, which is the loss of Quan Cosby and Brandon Collins, two players McCoy relied on to complete third-down passes, in the case of Cosby also the hitch passes that he could turn into solid gains and Collins as his hot receivers on blitzes. McCoy has not established that level of comfort with the current receivers, who have struggled to create separation and, frankly, McCoy didn't help much early in the season because he was uncharacteristically inaccurate at points early in the year.

Those struggles have passed now, but the bottom line is that the receiving corps, notably John Chiles and James Kirkendoll, has been a disappointment overall and defenses have caught up with the Texas offense unveiled last season against Oklahoma, particularly in defending the crossing routes Texas used to convert many third downs last season and either disguising coverages to confuse McCoy's pre-snap reads or also using their coverage look to manipulate his read into something easily defensible.

RMN: The Texas defense is giving up an absurdly low 3.6 yards per play, tied for tops in the nation. How is the credit divided here? Has Texas amassed enough talent that schemes don't matter, or does Will "Boom" Muschamp get a lion's share of the credit too?

BON: Dividing the credit equally doesn't seem to be fair to the job that Will Muschamp has done at Texas. The recruiting has played a big part of it - guys like Sergio Kindle and Eddie Jones were the bluest of blue chips coming out of high school, but the staff did an excellent job identifying underrated talents like Roddrick Muckelroy, from a school East Texas school, and the Acho brothers, who played at a private school in Dallas. Don't underestimate, then, the collective recruiting the staff has done.

There is a ton of talent on that defense and none of those players were recruited by Muschamp. That being said, what Muschamp has turned this defense into is completely of his own creation, particularly Kindle, who was unbelievably lost in the shuffle during his first two years on campus - Muschamp took his talent and maximized it in a way the previous defensive coordinators had not. The previous coaches wanted to make him into a linebacker who could drop into coverage. Muschamp unleashed him on opposing quarterbacks because he recognized that Kindle is best served playing downhill, the skill that made him so highly regarded coming out of high school in the first place. In that way, Kindle is perhaps a perfect example of the overall effect Muschamp has had - players are now in a position to succeed and they are doing so.

RMN: The benching of James Kirkendoll isn't much of a surprise after his Zidane-esque headbutt in Dallas, but what gives on the benching of John Chiles (who looks like a freak athlete) and Dan Buckner (who I thought was a mismatch nightmare and one of UT's biggest weapons)? Is Texas deep enough at receiver that it really doesn't matter, or is Mack Brown just trying to send a quick message?

BON: The issue for Chiles is simple - he hasn't been producing and can't consistently get separation in his routes. Unfortunately, whatever athleticism he has, and it was certainly of great repute coming to Texas, it just hasn't translated onto the field for whatever reason. As for Buckner, Mack Brown said that he's concerned about his knee, but really Buckner is going to lose some snaps to Greg Smith because the coaching staff seems to desire a greater emphasis on the running game. That's the short answer. If anyone is interested in the treatise I wrote about the issue, it's here.

Basically, the answer to your question is both. Brown is trying to send a message (if it's a message to Buckner it's to block better), but the main thing to take from this is that the coaching staff finally decided it was time to let talented players like true freshman and two-time Junior Olympic long-jump champion Marquise Goodwin, who can certainly create separation with his blend of incredible speed and ability to get into and out of cuts, and Malcolm Williams, the star of last year's Tech game who has had trouble getting into the field this season, reportedly because of a combination of dropped balls and less-than-ideal work ethic at times in practice.

RMN: Can ANY team expect to run on Texas this year, much less a Missouri team that's been struggling on the ground all season?

BON: Looking down the line, Oklahoma State is a concern because they racked up more than 200 yards last year against a unit that didn't get run on much, just like this current one, and Alabama and Florida are both concerns, for slightly different reasons in a possible national championship game appearance. Other than that, the flat answer is no. Texas has given up 29 yards rushing in the last four games. Muschamp puts a big emphasis on stopping the running game on first and second downs to create tough situations for the offense, but still manages not to give up many big plays in the passing game on early downs. Missouri will have an extremely difficult time running the football against Texas, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

RMN: Seeing what you've seen this season, if you were the opponent (in this case, Mizzou), how would you go about attacking the Texas defense? How would you defend the Texas offense?

BON: Can I pass on trying to formulate a plan to attack the Texas defense? Thinking about this question makes me extremely glad that the Longhorns won't ever have to face a Muschamp-coached defense. Teams haven't had much success at all this season doing much of anything. Colorado had success on two touchdowns isolating a tight end on a linebacker in coverage, but Muschamp adjusts so quickly I'm not sure he's going to allow that to happen again and I don't know anything about Missouri having a threat in that aspect of the game like the two excellent tight ends they've had recently.

Other than that, Tech had some success with double moves against Chykie and Curtis Brown, but on one of the plays I'm thinking of with Chykie giving up a touchdown, Muschamp blamed the blitz not getting there fast enough. In fact, if Texas sends a couple blitzers and the Mizzou line can hold for a second, Gabbert could be able to find something downfield and that is probably their best chance for a big play. Really though, other than a couple breakdowns in concentration by Chykie, the secondary hasn't given up much this season, a huge change from last year. As for as defending the Texas offense, I think I would blitz some on early downs to try to get the Longhorns behind the chains and then sit back in coverage in obvious passing situations and keep everything in front. In my opinion, that's pretty much the book on the Texas offense, but it may be changing now with an increased emphasis on the running game and downfield passing off of play action. If I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, though, I would just play by the book until Texas proves that it can run the ball consistently.

RMN: Bonus -- Should we hide our women and children when Sergio Kindle lines up across from the Missouri offensive line?

BON: Kindle is a beast, but I'm not going to predict any serious threats to the health of Blaine Gabbert just because the two times I've done that this season, Kindle was effective, but had relatively quiet games in terms of massive, Taylor Potts-like hits on the quarterback. Don't get me wrong, it's safe to say that Tiger fans should be afraid of Kindle, but with the way that the rest of the Texas defense is playing right now, it's really the whole unit that should be downright terrifying.

Mizzou Links, 10-23-09

Bill C. — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:58:39 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

Who hasn't written a "Danario Alexander better late than never" profile at this point?

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Mizzou-Texas Links!

MUtigers.com: Football Fan Primer
The Trib (Dave Matter): Writer's Block
BTS: What's going on with the Texas offense? Is it simply a case of no continuity at running back and identifying a No. 2 receiver?
Ballou: Every time we ask the coaches what is going on with the offense, they laugh and say they don't know either. They do. The chemistry isn't what it was last year, and they aren't producing at the rate they'd like. McCoy has been sick before their two biggest games (Tech & OU) - but even to him, that's not the excuse. They just keep saying they need to play better and execute better. He has Jordan Shipley, but beyond that, it's who steps up at wideout on a game to game basis.

I think the loss of two great glue guys in WR Quan Cosby (who caught everything) and RB Chris Ogbonnaya has hurt them too. I also think that Fozzy Whittaker is the best running back they have, but he's been hurt too much. He finally had his chance against OU and showed why, when healthy, he should get the majority of the carries.

Bohls: Colt has not been Colt all year. Never in a rhythm. Misses Quan Cosby and Chris Ogbonnaya. Their wide receivers have not been consistent, one reason Mack demoted Chiles and Kirkendoll this week.
The Missourian: Despite injury, Blaine Gabbert expects to spur offense for MU football team
The Missourian: 10 things that make Texas a bad homecoming opponent
The Trib: Behind the Stripes Webcast: Episode 11, Pt. 2

Oh yeah, and Texas? You can keep your big fan, we'll keep ours.

Previewing 2009 Wyoming Opponents: Texas Longhorns

Jeremy Mauss — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:47:15 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

(AP Photo/Harry Cabluck)

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Is this year Pasadena or bust --unless you are College Football News who predicts three loses-- for the Texas Longhorns, because with some erie similarities from the 2005 season to the 2009 season. The Horns are coming a good season, but there was controverisy over the Big XII tie breaker rules the league has that gave Oklahoma the nod over Texas even though the Longhorns won the head to head matchup. During the offseason no changes were made to that rule.

The offense which was amazing last year which was 5th nationally, but was third in the Big XII by averaging just over 42.2 points per game which was .2 more then Missouri. The offense returns eight starters with big losses come from the departures in RB Chris Ogbonnava, WR Quan Cosby,RG Cedric Dockery so the offense should stil be fine. WR Cosby was the team leader with 92 receptions and since Texas just reloads however those receptions will not be that easy to replace.

When looking for replacements to take over Cosby's spot on the field looks to be speedster James Kirkendoll, but also look out for junior Brandon Collins who has been praised by QB Colt McCoy. Both of these receivers are top notch recruits and Collins was a four star from the 2006 class while Kirkendoll was a four star from the 2007 class.

The tight end might be scrapped entirely after injuries have decimated the top few candidates to start, and it is anyones guess if or who Mack Brown will stick at that spot.

Obviously the quarterback situation is great for Texas as they have Heisman Trophy runner-up in Colt McCoy. McCoy did it all for Texas which included a mind boggling 76.7 percent completion percantage as well as averaging 8.91 yards per attempt. Not exactly sure who McCoy can improve off those numbers, or even staying in the 70 percentage.

McCoy is poised to challenge for the Heisman and is most likely to win it in 2009. The reasoning because the Heisman voters are most likely not to vote for a back-to-back winner --even though Tim Tebow did receive the most first place votes last year-- which almost certainly eliminates Bradford; not because of skill but because of voters tendancy. With all the hype surrounding "The Choosen One" and the Gators it will be hard to provide a good enough season where anything less then a BCS title is considered a failure.

When I mean most likely to win it does not constitute as a guarantee, but if Texas wins the Big XII--which means the 'Horns will be in Pasadena for the BCS title game-- and is anywhere close to his 2008 numbers he will be striking the pose in New York.

The only downside to McCoy and the Texas offense is the running game, because Texas did not have a premire back in 2008 and the team was lead in rushing by Colt McCoy with 561 yards and carries with 136 attempts. Getting running yards was not the problem, but Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis strayed from the run and leaned much more on Colt McMoy and the pasing game. The 2009 Longhorns must find a balance and incorrporate the run more, so that the team can be more balanced which could provide for big plays in the passing game.

The offensive line is very experienced with 91 career starts but the line was a much better passing line then a run block offensive line. Which is another reason why the team trended toward more passing plays then running plays. Also, consider that Texas nearly exclusively is in the shot gun formation which can hinder running plays by taking too long to get to the line of scrimmage. The running backs themselves will be used in a roation or situational role with Vondrell McGee the likely starter, then there is Fozzy Whittaker who is the most versitale of the backs, and then Cody Johnson who wll be the short yardage specialist.

Defensively well it is the Big XII which is why conferene stats are more of a tool to use when measuring success then national defensive rankings. The rush defense was amazing which was first in the Big XII by giving up only 83.54 yards per game, and even more impressive was the 3.05 allowed per rush; oh also the 'Horns just happened to be third nationally as well in total rushing yards allowed. There is concern because they lost three key defensive line man to the NFL In DT Roy MIller, DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton, so the rush defense could take a hit.

The pass defense is seventh in the league in yards allowed, which normally would be sound for alarm, however defensive passing yards are misleading when it comes to good teams. Any time Texas was up by 8 or more points the Longhorns were ninth in the Big XII in passing yards.

The Horns have playmakers in the secondaery with Earl Thomas, Aaron Williams, and Chykie Brown then there are a few more who could start for nearly any team in the country, so look for them to make big plays on defense.

The season really comes down to two games that could be a loss and then a third that has the potential to be a loss, and all three are in a row. There is always the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma then the potential trap game at Missouri, and then legitimate threat Oklahoma State which is also on the road.

SB Nation Big 12 Preview: Texas Longhorns Team Capsule

Peter Bean — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 20:02:25 -0000

More photos » by Harry Cabluck - AP

Before he hands Will Muschamp the keys to the machine, Mack Brown wants another national title at Texas.

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The SB Nation Big 12 preview will post on Friday at The Ralphie Report. The following is the Texas team capsule for the conference-wide preview piece.

When Texas has the ball: Texas returns 8 starters (Lost: RB, Chris Ogbonnaya, WR Quan Cosby, RG Cedric Dockery) from an offense a year ago that averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per play. The name everyone knows is ~~deserving~~ Heisman ~~winner~~ runner-up Colt McCoy, who led the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards in 2008. He also did a little passing: Following an up-and-down sophomore season, McCoy transformed into a robot last season, setting the single-season NCAA record for completion percentage in a season (76.7%), throwing a school record 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. If there's a legitimate critique of last year's outstanding offense, it would have to be the razor thin margins on which the Longhorns relied; looking forward to this fall, Texas would like to rely less on McCoy being a superhuman by bolstering the running game and finding more big plays.

The running game: Texas wasn't a poor rushing team a year ago, but the rushing attack was inconsistent and prone to disappear, necessitating McCoy's otherworldly performances to keep the engine humming. The offensive line is experienced, if not spectacular, returning four starters (LT Adam Ulatoski, LG Charlie Tanner, C Chris Hall, and RT Kyle Hix) who, combined with RG Michael Huey (3 starts in '08) enter the fall with 90 career starts between them. Both starting tackles are excellent in pass protection, but the question for this line will be their ability to create running room in the rushing offense. To that end, Texas offensive coordinator Greg Davis appears committed to introducing more plays under center and more man blocking, but for the offense to truly reach its fullest potential, the unit will need to open holes in the running game when McCoy is in its favored 11-personnel, with McCoy in the shotgun, flanked by a tailback. Like last year, a triumvirate of tailbacks will rotate situationally, with Vondrell McGee the likely nominal starter, Fozzy Whittaker the do-it-all Ogbonnaya role, and Cody Johnson the short yardage specialist.

The passing game: Replacing departed WR Quan Cosby won't exactly be a cinch, but if Texas fails to do so, an impressive number of promising candidates would have to fail. In the spring, the speedy James Kirkendoll (now also having a great fall camp) got the starting nod at the Sub-B wideout position formerly occupied by Cosby, but fans are watching fellow junior Brandon Collins closely as well, particularly after Colt McCoy commented at Big 12 media days that Collins was poised to break out for a tremendous season. Behind those two, a small army of unproven young talents will compete for playing time, among them converted QB John Chiles, as well as the speedy DeSean Hales (RS-Fr), DJ Monroe (RS-Fr) and Marquise Goodwin (True Freshman). Returning to man the flanker position is The Roommate, Jordan Shipley, a 1000-yard receiver in 2008 with 11 touchdowns. On the outside, Texas expects big things from third-year sophomore Malcolm Williams, whose football skills are catching up to his outrageous athletic talent. (Expecting an update on the tight end position? It's cursed, thank you very little; we decline to name names.)

When opponents have the ball: If Texas is on your television screen on January 7th in Pasadena, this unit will be the reason. Don't get us wrong: Colt McCoy deserves all the attention and accolades, but it's the potential of this defensive unit that makes us most confident in Texas' chances to roll through the conference unblemished.

Rush defense: The Longhorns held opponents to a paltry 3.05 yards per rushing attempt last season, but they lose three starters -- DT Roy Miller and DEs Brian Orakpo and Henry Melton -- to the NFL. Texas faces serious questions about the viability of the DT position in particular this fall, with only the exceptional Lamarr Houston returning. Vying for viability alongside him will be the senior situation space eater Ben Alexander, unproven sophomore Kheeston Randall, and recently converted offensive lineman Tray Allen. None of them needs to be spectacular, but at least one needs to prove himself capable of solid, block-eating play for 30-35 snaps a game. The rest of the work can be done by the talented, probably underrated, group of defensive ends and linebackers who will rotate heavily to keep everyone fresh. Everyone knows about Sergio Kindle, but by November, expect ends Eddie Jones and Sam Acho to be names every Big 12 quarterback knows as well. As for the linebackers, Texas has four players we absolutely love ready to lead what will prove to be the best tackling team in the conference: Rod Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Keenan Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho,

Pass defense: Two words come to mind: Un. Fair. The secondary may not prove as statistically dominant as Will Muschamp's 2003 title-winning LSU squad (too much help in run support for that, we suspect), but they'll make just as many big plays, and give top receivers in the conference more than a few forgettable nights. Both Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams look like First Team Big 12-level performers, Chykie Brown's not far behind, and Blake Gideon, Christian Scott, Curtis Brown, and Deon Beasley would comfortably start for at least 9 schools in the conference. This group is damn good.

The schedule: You could call it a two-game schedule (vs OU in Dallas, at Oklahoma State) and wouldn't draw much argument from the gallery. Beyond those two monsters, Texas's next three toughest tests all come at home: Texas Tech, Colorado, and Kansas. A road trip to Missouri on their homecoming might be a potential trap game (sandwiched between the two Oklahomas), but with a new quarterback and a questionable defensive line and secondary, an upset would be truly stunning. As for the non-conference schedule... well... maybe Texas just wanted to welcome home Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's it.

The outlook: Anything short of a 12-0 trip to the Rose Bowl will disappoint Texas fans, and for good reason. The talent cycle hits a peak this year, there's experience, skill talent, depth, and a favorable schedule. And some bitterness, too. Texas rightly felt hosed by the BCS system last season and will approach this season with a sense of focus, urgency, and more than a little hostility. That's a good thing for a program under Mack Brown that struggles when it's comfortable. All eyes on Dallas, then, for one of the biggest regular season football games of the last decade. We predict a Texas win and, two months later, a return trip to Vince Young Stadium West.

Poll

Predict Texas' losses in 2009.

None -- See you in Pasadena.

554 votes

1 -- Oklahoma

35 votes

1 -- Oklahoma State

64 votes

1 -- Other

18 votes

2 -- OU and Oklahoma State

19 votes

2 -- Other

7 votes

3 or more

1 votes

698 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Practice Report

Peter Bean — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 07:19:04 -0000

While I was tied up here in California doing EDSBS LIVE, the Longhorns were busy in Austin practicing in front of fans. An old friend was nice enough to give me a call after the practice and share with me his thoughts. After the jump, I'll share with you the notes I took from our conversation. I wasn't there, but this is from someone whose judgment I value; I'd certainly be interested to hear the thoughts from others who made it out to DKR.

"This is the 12th straight year I've gone to open fall practices and I'm more excited about this team than I have been any team in memory -- even the 2005 team. Maybe because we'd lost five straight to OU back then, I was afraid to believe. I believe in this team already."
"It looked to me like DJ Grant had his leg catch on the ground while he took a little pop from Earl Thomas. The body went one way while the leg stayed still. I suspect the knee popped, but who knows. We can hope it was just a strain."
"Everyone around me was impressed by Barrett Matthews. Texas isn't going to have an all-conference guy like Pettigrew out there, but we don't need one. We just need someone to keep defenses honest. Matthews' athleticism and versatility surprised me. I'm hopeful he can fill the role we need in the passing game."
"For all Colt's summer gushing about Brandon Collins, it was James Kirkendoll who looked like his new BFF. At least tonight. I've seen enough of these not to read too much into the small sample, but I like that we have some competition for the Quan Cosby role."
"The #2 QB battle is more interesting than I thought it would be. Sherrod Harris looked 100% healthy to me, which is great, but I was pretty wowed by what it looks like Garrett Gilbert will become -- and quickly. It's an interesting short-, medium-, and long-term strategy problem for the coaches to ponder. I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how you'd handle it." [PB: I'll devote a post to this, but I'd get Gilbert going now. There are good arguments on both sides, though. More later.]
"I'm with you on thinking Vondrell McGee can be a successful tailback for this team. Guy is solid in all the right ways, and more explosive than people realize. Like you, I think he's the nominal starter. Anything we get from Fozzy Whittaker is a bonus. He's intriguing, but he may need more space than our offense creates. We'll see."
Asking about Colt and any other receivers he noticed: "McCoy is sharp, but what I really love is watching him lead the team. You need that to win 12 straight games. He's a man out there. As for receivers, I don't have much more to add. I like our depth and think the group will produce more than enough playmakers. Malcolm Williams is close, real close. He's not thinking with the ball in his hands anymore, which is huge. The new burner -- Marquise Goodwin -- can play ball. Neither DJ Monroe nor DeSean Hales looks ready to be a regular contributor; both are a year away."
"The defense showed a lot of different looks, including a bunch of sets from the 3-4, with Roddrick Muckelroy, Jared Norton, Emmanuel Acho, and Keenan Robinson out there together at times. Given our situation at DT, it makes sense -- all four are playmakers. You wonder how Texas would fare against a team with a power rushing attack, but then you look at the Big 12 and shrug. Who f***ng cares? Both Texas and OU have better defenses than anyone outside the conference will ever realize."
"This isn't Mack Brown's strongest defensive line, but it may be his quickest. I think it's enough for Muschamp to get by. We'll see. An injury to Lamarr Houston would be catastrophic."
"The secondary is just unfair. We've talked about this before, but Aaron Williams is the best true sophomore DB Texas has ever had in the Mack Brown era. And we've had some good ones. Chykie Brown is healthy and is just so long, both in his strides and in his arms; when he concentrates with his footwork, he's not getting passed on. Curtis Brown has the raw athleticism but isn't there fundamentally yet. He had trouble with Kirkendoll tonight. Still, I'd rather have him than anyone on, say, Oklahoma State. Earl Thomas is All-Conference, and Blake Gideon and Christian Scott will do a great job competing with one another for top minutes."
"I didn't focus on the line play too much, but if I'm able to make it to tomorrow's practice I'll look in. The main thing for me is while I don't want to put too much into player notes on one practice, the way I saw everyone out there working made me 100% believe this team is what we think it is. All the hype will be about the Texas and OU offenses, but the real story is the defenses. The Sooners are much better on D than anyone in the mainstream media will talk about, but so is Texas. In fact, if you made me draft any defense from the MB era, I'm not sure I wouldn't choose this group #1, depth at tackle be damned. My love for the LBs/DBs is that strong."

Speaking of Quan Cosby...

Peter Bean — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 21:53:22 -0000

I can't bring him up and not show this, right?

Right.

Not Colt McCoy's Roommate, But Still...

Peter Bean — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:10:45 -0000

One of my favorite things about putting together the Eyes of Texas annual is the plethora of statistical nuggets I inevitably digest researching/editing the various articles. Wanting to emphasize the importance of replacing Quan Cosby, I decided to tally the team's top four pass catchers over the team's final four games:

Player	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD
Cosby	34	432	12.7	6
Shipley	25	281	11.2	1
Collins	16	245	15.3	3
Kirkendoll	12	105	8.8	0

34 freaking catches in 4 games. That's almost as many as Tim Tebow would have had. Quan will be missed.

But he's not the only one who stands out in the chart; Brandon Collins does as well, which is why even before yesterday many of us were eyeballing the rising junior as a critical component to the Texas passing game this fall. Even so, Colt McCoy's comment about Collins ("Brandon Collins will be one of the most talented guys to come through Texas in a while at the wide receiver position. He's really picked it up.") at Big 12 Media Days was more important than typical teammate gushing. The chart above tells you all you need to know, but for the Sooners following along at home, a visual clue might help:

Quan Cosby may not have physical skills that make NFL scouts drool, but he had something for more important (to us): Colt McCoy's trust. Dependent as is Texas's option passing game on sure-handed receivers with exceptional rapport with the quarterback, McCoy's comment is an encouraging sign for the fall, where replacing Cosby will be less about outrageous talent and more about finding a guy with whom McCoy is 100% confident. Someone who, on that critical third down or last second play, Colt McCoy can lock eyes with on the line, not even needing to call an audible... Just a knowing glance that says it all: "Brandon, I think your tractor's sexy. (I'll hit you on a quick slant.)"

Texas: Beyond the Box Score Preseason Offensive Preview

Bill C. — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 17:00:12 -0000

Confused? Catch up with the BTBS Primer.

It's time to take a look at the best team on Missouri's 2009 slate. Strengths? Weaknesses? Statistical red flags? We've got 'em all in the offensive preview.

2008

Record: 12-1 (7-1 in the Big 12)
S&P+: 270.9 (5th in the country, 2nd in the Big 12)
Scoring Margin: 551-244 (+307)
Conference Scoring Margin: 329-180 (+149)
Wins (S&P+ Ranking in parentheses): #3 Oklahoma, #8 Ohio State, #10 Missouri, #14 Oklahoma State, #20 Kansas, #38 Arkansas, #40 Baylor, #47 Rice, #82 Colorado, #90 Florida Atlantic, #96 UTEP, #98 Texas A&M
Losses: #15 Texas Tech

Just think of all we'd have been deprived of had Blake Gideon just held onto Graham Harrell's pass with nine seconds left in last year's Texas-Texas Tech game. Crabtree's shining moment, Big 12 Tie-Breaker "controversy" (in quotes because there is no such thing as a good fifth tie-breaker--somebody's going to feel screwed no matter what), 45-35, 62-21, etc. That play, and the one that followed, defined a good portion of both the last two months of the football season and quite a bit of the offseason that has followed.

Without once again diving into why the tie-breaker wasn't "controversial" at all, and why, really, the correct team was selected for the Big 12 title game (and, therefore, national title game), all of the drama distracted us from one impressive storyline: that Texas arrived a year earlier than expected. Heading into 2008, I remember reading a post from Burnt Orange Nation (can't find it now) that suggested everybody look at 2008 through the prism of 2009, coaches included. The Longhorns were young and dangerous, but they were probably still a year away from being a true national title threat.

And then they went and beat OU. And rocked Missouri. And crept by a game Oklahoma State. They showed up in Lubbock on November 1 well ahead of schedule. And while they definitely suffered a high-level gut punch of a loss there, two months earlier nobody was really expecting them to get quite as far as they did. Hell, before the season we thought it was a perfect time for Missouri to have to visit Austin, and that Mizzou would have a legitimate chance of knocking off the 'Horns. Whoops. The 2008 Texas season, however, does go to show that you truly never know when something special is going to happen--if you try to predict it, you're almost always wrong--and you better not look away, else you might miss it.

So here's the question: can Texas possibly be better than they were in 2008? I realize they have strong experience in most units, and on paper they probably should be better, but...well, on paper Missouri should have been better in 2008 than 2007. They weren't. Near-perfection is hard to duplicate, even with great recruiting classes. So let's see what we can derive about Texas in 2009.

Coaching

Is this the year Mack Brown adds Title #2 to the resume?

Head Coach: Mack Brown
Career Record: 201-100-1
Record at Texas: 115-26 (conference: 72-16)
Pythagorean Wins since 2002: 70.2 Pythagorean wins versus 77 real wins (+1.0 per year)

As I've played around more with Pythagorean wins, I've learned that top teams will almost certainly have a Pythagorean win total higher than their actual win total for one simple reason: blowout wins skew the projections, and top teams usually have more blowout wins. So the fact that Texas has actually over-achieved by about one win per year speaks volumes, I think, about the job Mack Brown has done, not only in recruiting (for which he has always received plenty of credit), but also in both game-coaching and staff-building.

Mack Brown has had quite an interesting career, and it stems back much further than just Austin, or even Chapel Hill. His playing career took him first to Vanderbilt, then to Florida State, and he ended up at Southern Miss for grad school (he was WRs coach while getting his graduate degree). Naturally, his first coaching job outside of grad school came in...Ames, where he was first WRs coach in 1979 and then Offensive Coordinator in 1980-81 under Donnie Duncan. In his first year as Cyclone OC, ISU's scoring average improved from 12.5 points per game in 1979 to 22.3 in 1980 (fun fact: ISU was 1-2 versus MU in Brown's time in Ames). When he left to become QBs coach at LSU in 1982, Iowa State fell slightly to 4-6-1, and Duncan was done.

Ever the mover, Brown stayed in Baton Rouge for just one season before accepting the head coaching job at Appalachian State, which he held for just one season (they went 6-5). Passed up for the LSU head coaching job, he ended up in Norman, of all places, where he was OU's Offensive Coordinator for (you guessed it) one year. Finally, he landed in a place long enough to justify buying a house--he was Tulane's head coach for three seasons, leading them to a 6-5 regular season record and a rare bowl bid in 1987 and then immediately jumping to Chapel Hill (he was succeeded at Tulane by his future Offensive Coordinator, Greg Davis).

In Chapel Hill, he inherited a North Carolina squad that had fallen off from Dick Crum's early-1980s heyday, when Lawrence Taylor was becoming one of the most exciting college players ever. UNC had little talent, and apparently what talent they had didn't mesh well with Brown's system. The Tar Heels started Brown's tenure with back-to-back 1-10 seasons. But from there, things picked up. UNC went from 6, to 7, to 9, to 10 wins from 1990-93, then upped the ante with a 20-3 record in 1996-97. And then, naturally, Brown hopped to a bigger lily pad, The University of Texas.

Texas won nine games in each of Brown's first three years in Austin (1998-2000)...and they haven't won less than 10 since. You know the story from here. Snuffed out by OU for a series of consecutive seasons, Texas broke through with Vince Young in 2005 and has, to a slightly lesser degree, been snuffing OU out since then.

Alright, since we're already almost to 1,000 words, on with the offensive preview.

Offense

Overall Stats

S&P+: 124.6 (#10)
Success Rate+: 117.8 (#12)
PPP+: 134.1 (#9)

Standard Downs S&P+: 114.4 (#24)
Passing Downs S&P+: 152.8 (#2)

Redzone S&P+: 135.6 (#4)

Q1 S&P+: 138.3 (#6)
Q2 S&P+: 129.6 (#9)
Q3 S&P+: 128.1 (#14)
Q4 S&P+: 102.6 (#60)

1st Down S&P+: 120.9 (#14)
2nd Down S&P+: 121.8 (#20)
3rd Down S&P+: 140.6 (#10)

Rushing Stats

Rushing S&P+: 115.4 (#29)
Rushing SR+: 109.5 (#38)
Rushing PPP+: 125.2 (#26)

Standard Downs: 105.6 (#50)
Passing Downs: 138.2 (#11)

Redzone: 130.8 (#11)

Line Yards+: 100.5 (#64)

Passing Stats

Passing S&P+: 133.3 (#9)
Passing SR+: 127.3 (#10)
Passing PPP+: 141.7 (#8)

Standard Downs: 126.4 (#11)
Passing Downs: 163.1 (#3)

Redzone: 151.7 (#7)

Adj. Sack Rate: 5.8% (#59)

A few interesting things to note here.

Texas lost or came close to losing three games in 2008--Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Ohio State. In all three, the offense was relatively iffy early (decent against OU, atrocious against Tech) and came on late for the win or almost-win. Despite this, the Texas offense got statistically worse in each proceeding quarter in 2008. Now, the fourth-quarter numbers I can forgive since the starters didn't play in much of the fourth quarter about half the season. But still, kind of odd.
You see some teams with an S&P+ carried by either Success Rate (efficiency) or PPP (explosiveness), but Texas was equally good at both in 2008, especially in the passing game. Rushing, Texas made up for only-decent Success Rates with slightly-better-than-decent PPP figures.
I usually gauge line play with two figures: Line Yards+ and Adjusted Sack Rate. Texas fared well in neither. I realize they're stacked with 4-star recruits and all, but...how good was the Texas OL in 2008?
Note the crazy disproportionality of success on Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We'll come back to that below.

Quarterback

Can Colt McCoy possibly be any better than he was in 2008?

2008 Unit Ranking: #5 in the nation (#2 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Colt McCoy (6'3, 210, Sr.)
Sherrod Harris (6'3, 215, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)

In both of his first two seasons starting for Texas, Colt McCoy completed over 65% of his passes and threw over 20 touchdown passes. But his decision-making was quite shaky in 2007--his 22 TDs were marred by his 18 INTs, and his QB rating fell from 161.8 in 2006 to 139.2, still a decent mark, but a very clear step backwards in development. With the typical Texas level of talent, the 'Horns managed only a #26 overall S&P+ ranking.

Heading into the 2008 season, really, not a ton was expected from him, at least not in comparison to other Big 12 QBs. (In last year's Texas Week roundtable, two unnamed RMN'ers picked UT to go 8-4! I'd like to pound my chest on my own prediction, however, even though I got the loss wrong.) Of course, McCoy responded by setting a national record with a 76.7% completion rate in 2008, posting a career-best 34 TDs to only 8 INTs, with a ridiculous 173.8 QB Rating. Oh yeah, and he led UT in rushing, with 561 yards (4.1 per carry). He led Texas to a 12-1 record and a victory (45-35!!!!!!1!!!) over OU at the Texas state fair. He staked about as big a claim to the Heisman Trophy as Sam Bradford did, though Bradford--with a host of more experienced weapons--clearly scored some major voter points when OU went out and scored at least 58 points in six straight games to end the regular season.

Can Colt McCoy possibly approach his 2008 numbers in 2008? I say no, and I have one major reason why: Texas actually did better on Passing Downs (1.01 S&P) than Standard Downs (0.97 S&P) in 2008. Think about that. They were a better offense on 3rd-and-7 than 2nd-and-4. That makes no sense, and while I don't have enough year-to-year data to show what happens to teams with disproportional success like that, how in the world can you maintain that?

In a lot of ways, this disproportionality reminds me a lot of a baseball measure that has significantly grown in popularity recently: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Over time, most players and pitchers produce roughly the same BABIP. It can vary depending on the ratio of ground balls to line drives and fly balls, but over time, most BABIP will regress to the mean of around .290. When a pitcher gives up a BABIP of .350 or .220 one year, it's probably pretty quickly going to revert back toward .290. Therefore it can be used to spot flukes, seasons that were particularly good or bad depending on whether ground balls tended to sneak between 3B and SS or go straight at a defender.

To me, disproportional success on Passing Downs might end up being a lot like BABIP in picking up on some amount of fluky success. Texas certainly had a good offense no matter what in 2008, but I think it may have been a little too good to maintain in 2009. Especially considering McCoy will be playing without two major third-down bailout options, Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, I'm thinking Colt may end up having a year where Texas struggles at times, and there's no clear explanation why (kind of like when you're hitting a ball hard, but right at the shortstop). A few more 3rd-and-7 passes fall incomplete, and the Texas offense could slow down in a hurry.

(That said, their schedule is so damn easy that they should pretty easily reach 10 wins, struggles or no struggles.)

So in summary, Colt McCoy is a damn good quarterback, but in the end he was probably a little too good in 2008. I see his numbers regressing a bit in 2009.

Running Backs

If he can stay healthy, Fozzy Whittaker has the highest ceiling of any Texas back.

2008 Unit Ranking: #33 in the nation (#4 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
Cody Johnson (5'11, 255, So.)
Vondrell McGee (5'10, 205, Jr.)
Fozzy Whittaker (5'10, 190, So.)

Of course, McCoy's numbers will be allowed to fall a bit in 2009 if Texas running backs can pick up their game a bit. The Longhorns have a host of talented-yet-flawed athletes in the backfield. Cody Johnson is an awesome short-yardage back, but can he see every-down success? Can Fozzy Whitaker stay healthy enough to live up to the massive promise seen by Burnt Orange Nation readers over the last couple of years? Can Vondrell McGee, UT's most well-rounded overall back, assert himself a bit more in 2009? Can any number of other highly-recruited options break into the rotation? Even with the flaws, and even with Chris Ogbonnaya's low (relatively speaking) ceiling, this unit certainly wasn't bad in 2008, ranking 4th in the Big 12 and 33rd overall. But most see this unit as the Longhorns' most pronounced Achilles Heel heading into 2009, and there's no arguing that the unit could do well in finding a go-to guy.

For reference, here were the Points Over Expected (POE) figures and rankings for UT's 2008 running backs:

Cody Johnson +10.2 POE (46th in the country, out of 267 eligible rushers)
Chris Ogbonnaya +6.6 POE (73rd)
Vondrell McGee -2.1 POE (158th)
Fozzy Whittaker -5.5 POE (198th)

Not great.

Wide Receivers / Tight Ends

Jordan Shipley: Sooner killer.

2008 Unit Ranking: #14 in the nation (#3 in the Big 12)

Projected WR Depth Chart
Jordan Shipley (6'0, 190, Sr.)
Malcolm Williams (6'3, 220, So.)
Brandon Collins (6'0, 185, Jr.)
John Chiles (6'2, 215, Jr.)
Dan Buckner (6'4, 215, So.)
James Kirkendoll (5'11, 180, Jr.)
DeSean Hales (5'11, 175, RSFr.)
Montre Webber (6'3, 215, Jr.)
Philip Payne (6'2, 215, Jr.)

Projected TE Depth Chart
Blaine Irby (6'3, 235, Jr.)
Greg Smith (6'4, 270, Jr.)
Ahmad Howard (6'4, 250, So.)

How important was Quan Cosby? His longest reception last year was only 40 yards--in comparison, Jordan Shipley's was 68, Malcolm Williams 91, Dan Buckner 51, and Chris Ogbonnaya 65--but he caught more passes than anybody else in the burnt orange jerseys, especially on third downs: Cosby caught 16 passes on third downs last year, and all 16 went for first downs. If Texas can replace Cosby's reliability (and Brandon Collins--10 of 12 third-down catches moved the chains--looks like he could be up for the challenge), then this receiving corps could be one of the best in the country. Jordan Shipley returns for his 17th year (what? only his 6th?), and the rest of the depth chart is simply littered with big-time recruits. Malcolm Williams awed everybody in the country with his 91-yard touchdown catch at a key moment against Texas Tech, but he only caught 19 passes all season. Dan Buckner passes the eyeball test...but only caught five passes. With Cosby gone, it is time for at least a couple of these guys to become reliable, every-down receivers.

The wildcard here could be John Chiles. For two years, Chiles served as Colt McCoy's backup, showing both outstanding running ability and a decent arm. With McCoy back for one more season, Chiles has been at least temporarily moved to WR. Not only will this open up the door for some nice double-pass-style trick plays, but it could give UT a nice, shifty option underneath coverage. I also listed Chiles on the QB list, as I'm just not sure what happens if McCoy were to get hurt or something.

Offensive Line

Chris Hall leads an experienced line that probably needs to do a bit better in 2009.

2008 Unit Ranking: #63 in the nation (#9 in the Big 12)

Projected Depth Chart
C Chris Hall (6'4, 300, Sr.) ***
T Adam Ulatoski (6'8, 306, Sr.) ***
G Charlie Tanner (6'4, 305, Sr.) ***
T Kyle Hix (6'7, 320, Jr.) ****
G Michael Huey (6'5, 320, Jr.) ****
T Tray Allen (6'5, 315, Jr.) *****
T Britt Mitchell (6'5, 305, Jr.) ***
C David Snow (6'4, 300, So.) ****
G Steve Moore (6'5, 300, Jr.) ***
G Mark Buchanan (6'6, 310, RSFr.) ****

So here's something interesting: while Texas is known for signing as many four-star recruits as they can stomach, of the four returning starters on the offensive line, three--Hall, Ulatoski, Tanner--were 3-star recruits. Now, Missouri has proven that there's nothing wrong with loading up on 3-stars, but there isn't quite as much high-end talent here as in most units for the Longhorns, and it possibly showed last year. While Colt McCoy was one of the nation's best QBs, and the UT receiving corps was Top 15, the line struggled, both in run-blocking (64th in Line Yards+) and pass protection (59th in Adjusted Sack Yards). For those who follow recruiting rankings, there is a silver lining for the 'Horns, as Michael Huey, Tray Allen, David Snow, and Mark Buchanan were all given at least four stars by Rivals (Allen was a 5-star), so there is decent depth of talent here, and if this unit can do its job a little better, maybe McCoy won't have to come through on nearly as many Passing Down situations.

Something else to note: true freshmen Aundre McGaskey, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters were all in for the spring and landed on the third string; with three seniors and five juniors on the two-deep, it wouldn't be a surprise to see at least one or two of these guys to break into the rotation and get a little growth for the future.

Summary

In a nutshell, a Top 5 quarterback and a top 15 receiving corps combined with only a decent running back corps and iffy offensive line to produce a Top 10 offense by succeeding at possibly an unsustainably high rate on Passing Downs. First of all, give massive props to Colt McCoy for everything he did in 2008. He was an absolute magician. And if guys like Fozzy Whittaker, Malcolm Williams, any tight end, and a couple of offensive linemen all live up to their potential, then he won't have to pull quite as many rabbits out of quite as many hats in 2009.

Texas fans better hope McCoy has some more help, because it's my opinion that no QB in the country would be able to do what he did last year, for two straight years. Clearly Texas is likely to win at least ten games again, but there are more holes and unproven areas on this offense than one would expect, and if UT is to go 12-0 instead of 10-2 (certainly a distinct possibility), guys other than McCoy will need to step up. This is Texas--you know the potential is there; but some of this potential will need to turn into production by the time September turns into October.

Texas Links!

Bill C. — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 20:00:12 -0000

The 2009 Preview train rolls on this week...it's now time to take a look at Opponent #7: Texas.

2008 Recap

And of course, the two pics that most clearly resonate when thinking about Texas 2008...

Correctly mocked in the blogosphere
I mean, I get it, but...come on.

2009 Previews

2009 Schedule
CFN's Texas Preview
Malcolm Williams: All-Up-and-Coming Team
Bruce Feldman's blog: The ten must-see games of the college football season
Texas vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 17: You won't find a better QB battle this year than when Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy get together. It's no stretch to think the Heisman, the Big 12 title and possibly a BCS title game berth will be on the line here. Oh, and there's also the jilted feeling from the Longhorns for being passed over by the Sooners last year, a team they beat in this one in 2008. The Sooners, who have lost three of the past four, need to reassert themselves in the rivalry.

2009 Achilles Heel?

Fox Sports: No Texas Back is a Lone Star
Dr. Saturday: Wait, does Texas need more from its running game?
Texas' position toward this, I think, is as follows: They're fine with it. When you're in front, you don't shift gears; you hit the gas. As middling as it looked in the big picture, the committee approach was still above average by Big 12 standards and had solid efforts -- over 150 yards on at least four yards per carry -- in the wins over Oklahoma, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M. Beyond that, as the time of possession numbers here clearly demonstrate, "ball control" does not always mean "grinding running game," if your robot quarterback is the most consistent passer in NCAA history.
Burnt Orange Nation: Replacing OG, Third-Down Back Extraordinaire, Part I - The Requirements
Burnt Orange Nation: Replacing OG, Third-Down Back Extraordinaire, Part II - The Candidates

More Burnt Orange Nation Goodies

Making the Jump to Light-Speed - Longhorns Set to Accelerate Tempo
Anatomy of a Spread Linebacker
Searching for Six - The Wide Receiver Position Battle, Part I

Brandon Collins - The former basketball player has taken some time to adjust to the physical mentality of football, but most importantly, it has taken time for Collins to understand the work necessary to succeed. For Collins that means working hard to add strength to his thin frame and spending more time in the film room breaking down defenses and understanding and executing his blocking assignments.

Excellent in the screen game, Collins will be expected to build on the flashes of big-play ability shown multiple times in the season, but never more importantly than on the second-to-last play of the Fiesta Bowl, making a tough catch and returning quickly to the line of scrimmage even with an injured ankle. Of all the receivers for Texas, Collins might be the most explosive and able to make defenders miss in space, a skill that could help him see time at split end making the same short catches made in 2008 by Quan Cosby.
Searching For Six - The Wide Receiver Position Battle, Part II
Spring Storylines

Et Cetera